WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY REPORT 路 Q2 2015 THUMB AREA COUNTIES 路 HURON, LAPEER, SANILAC, TUSCOLA
CONTENTS Labor Market and Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics
Labor Market and Demand Summary Data Notes and Sources
GEOGRAPHY
Prosperity Region 6 includes 7 counties: Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola. This report focuses on the Thumb area counties: Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, and Tuscola.
SECTION ONE LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW
TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers once again represented the most in-demand occupation in the Thumb region during Q2 2015 according to online job postings. Job ads for truck drivers doubled from 50 in Q1 to 101 in Q2. Registered nurses maintained the second most in-demand position, with postings increasing from 40 in Q1 to 65 in Q2. The third most in-demand occupation was retail salespersons with 35 online ads during Q2. The three aforementioned occupations consistently have high posting ranks throughout southeast Michigan. On the other hand, occupations like physical therapists and first-line supervisors of food service workers had notable declines in postings. Postings for physical therapists cut in half between Q1 and Q2 while ads for food service supervisors reduced by 75% over the same time period. Such drastic decreases in posting intensity most likely indicates that employers successfully found talent for open positions in the region.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
The labor force in the Thumb region decreased by 232 individuals to 100,944 in Q2, a -0.2% drop. Meanwhile, employment increased for the first time since 2011; 94,427 individuals now have jobs in the region compared to 93,023 during Q1 2015 (1.5% increase). Should the labor force continue to decrease for the remainder of 2015—as historical trends suggest it will—the annual average will be lower than that of 2013. At the same time, however, employment continues to grow to levels not seen in the region since 2008. Hopefully the increase in hiring will attract individuals to join or re-join the labor force. Between Q1 and Q2 2015 unemployment dropped by 1.6 percentage points in the Thumb Region. The decrease to 6.5% unemployment was mostly due to people gaining jobs in the region but was also partially influenced by the shrinking labor force.
EMPLOYER DEMAND APRIL - JUNE 2015
Online job postings grew marginally in the region from 1,099 in Q1 to 1,109 in Q2. Creating projections for future quarters is difficult in the Thumb Region as there are no discernable historical trends. This may be because many employers are still in the process of using online ads to find talent, shifting away from more traditional newspaper ads and other forms of finding talent. While postings in Q2 2015 were not as high as previous peaks, overall posting levels in the first half of 2015 remain higher than 2014 levels over the same period. Of the six occupation clusters analyzed by WIN in the Thumb region, three experienced an increase in postings between Q1 and Q2 (Engineers & Designers, Health Care, Transportation, Distribution & Logistics) while three experienced a decrease (Skilled Trades, Retail & Hospitality, Agriculture). The share of total postings for Health Care increased the most (8 percentage points) while share of postings for Retail & Hospitality decreased the most (8.8 percentage points). Q2 2015 marked the first quarter in which Retail & Hospitality did not hold the greatest share of postings.
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW
SECTION TWO OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS
THUMB REGION DEMAND OVERVIEW
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WIN’s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2014, skilled trades employment reached 12,039 individuals in Region 6. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing. The most in-demand Skilled Trades occupation was production workers with 23 online ads during Q2 2015—up from 10 ads in Q1. These workers include recycling and reclamation workers along with production workers necessary for manufacturing processes. First-line supervisors of production and operating workers remained as the second top posting job with 17 online ads in Q2. Computer-controlled machine tool operators, the most in-demand occupation in Q1 with 17 online ads, had just 1 posting during Q2. Typically, such a drastic decline in postings between quarters typically indicates that employers successfully found talent for open positions in the region.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Q2 2015 marked the second consecutive quarter in which postings decreased for the Skilled Trades occupational cluster. After peaking recently with 104 online ads in Q4 2014, postings were down to 79 in Q2 2015. While ads for this cluster have not surpassed historical peaks, they do seem to have somewhat stabilized over the past year.
Michigan’s Thumb Region has a competitive edge in nearly every in-demand Skilled Trades occupation. Machine setters and operators for molding have the highest location quotient in the broader Southeast Michigan region (7.38). A location of 7.38 means that these workers are 638% more concentrated in the Thumb region than other areas of the U.S. on average. CC Machinists, the top posting job in Q1 also has a high location quotient (LQ) of 4.62. Such a high concentration of workers gave employers a much larger pool to select from and helps explain why postings were effectively non-existent in Q2. In contrast, plant and system operators have an LQ of just 0.54, meaning that the concentration of these workers in the Thumb Region is just 54% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. About half of the most in-demand Skilled Trades occupations offer a median hourly rate near or above $15. Starting wages (10th percentile) are not as competitive, but all positions offer upward wage growth. Occupations that offer lower wages do provide experience necessary for in-demand supervisory rolls. Combining a postsecondary award with this experience would allow these workers to become first-line supervisors who can make a median hourly wage over $23 per hour, or $48,000 per year. Many Skilled Trade jobs do not require a degree but instead a special certification and on-the-job training. In-demand supervisory roles require a post-secondary award that takes less than two years. Higher paying occupations like CNC machinists require the longest on-the-job training.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 3,185 employed individuals in Region 6. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly. Industrial engineers represented the most in-demand Engineer & Designer occupation in the Thumb region during Q2 2015. Postings more than tripled from 5 in Q1 to 18 in Q2. Manufacturing engineers remained as the second top posting job and ads for this occupation increased from seven in Q1 to twelve in Q2. Mechanical engineers, the previous most in-demand occupation fell to third after postings were halved from eight in Q1 to four in Q2.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for the Engineer & Designer occupation cluster have been slowly rising since Q4 2013. Most recently, online ads increased from 34 in Q1 to 45 in Q2 2015. Overall, the region has not experienced substantial growth or decline in postings over the past few years. During Q2 2015, 4.1% of total postings in the Thumb region were in Engineering and Design.
While not as strong of a presence as the rest of Southeast Michigan, the Thumb region has high concentration of four Engineer & Designer occupations. For example, industrial engineers have a location quotient (LQ) of 2.14, meaning that the concentration of these workers in the region is 114% higher than other areas of the U.S. on average. In contrast, chemical engineers have an LQ of 0.47, indicating that these the concentration of these workers is just 47% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. Wages for Engineers and Designers are extremely competitive. Starting wages (10th percentile) are near or above $20 per hour for most top jobs in this cluster. The high wages follow a need for higher education as most of the top jobs require a Bachelor’s degree. Drafters and technicians, which require Associate’s degrees, typically have lower wages than engineers but still competitive. While there are no graduates specifically in the Thumb region as there are few higher education institutions southeast Michigan boasts a number of schools with Engineer and Designer graduates that can move to the area to fill open positions.
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS LOCATIONS QUOTIENT AND WAGESS
ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Region 6's largest with, 31,815 employees in 2014. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most indemand job in this cluster.
Similar to other areas in southeast Michigan, the most in-demand Health Care occupation, and by a large margin, was registered nurses during Q2 2015 and has been for several years. Postings for nurses rose from 40 in Q1 to 65 in Q2, a 62% increase. Postings for second most in-demand occupation, speech-language pathologists, increased five-fold between Q1 and Q2 2015. In Q1 this occupation was the listed tenth in terms of postings with just five ads but demand has greatly increased with 24 postings during Q2. In contrast, postings for physical therapists halved between quarters (33 in Q1, 16 in Q2).
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online job ads for the Health Care cluster have increased for the second consecutive quarter in the Thumb Region. Furthermore, the 247 postings in Q2 2015 marked the highest number of ads for this cluster since online posting data bean being collected in 2011. As previously noted, the Health Care cluster now has the greatest share of total postings in the region out of the clusters analyzed by WIN (22.3%).
Health Care is a sector that grows in concentration and demand as the local population increases and ages (demanding more services) and as universities and hospitals diversify and increase their reputation for destination care. Both of these are occurring in Michigan with demand for health services increase (as the population ages) and as universities and other hospitals become places of choice for others seeking care from outside the region. Half of the most in-demand Health Care occupations in the Thumb Region have a greater concentration of workers than the U.S. on average. For example, physical therapist assistants have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.57, indicating that these workers have a concentration 57% greater in the region than other areas of the U.S. In contrast, nurse practitioners have an LQ of 0.55, meaning that the concentration of these workers is just 55% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. Many health care jobs are a pathway into the middle class and others, those that require graduate-level training, boast very high salaries. Many workers see the high wage potential and are enrolling in health programs, however, there is still a shortage of many health care workers as evidenced by high posting levels and employment growth. There is currently a bill on the state Senate floor that would allow nurses to complete a Bachelor’s degree at their local community college, alleviating the monetary and distance issues with attending a four-year university for many.
HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2014, 77,414 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 6. The most in-demand Retail & Hospitality occupation during Q2 2015 was retail salespersons with 35 online ads, up from 33 in Q1. The previous top posting job, customer service representatives, shifted to second after postings fell from 37 in Q1 to 25 in Q2. First-line supervisors of retail workers was the third most in-demand occupation with 24 online ads. These three occupations are consistently at or near the top of the list in the region, indicating either high turnover, employer inability to find talent to fill positions, or a combination of both.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Unlike most of southeast Michigan, postings for Retail & Hospitality occupations have been on the decline in the Thumb region since peaking at 464 ads in Q3 2014. The 186 postings in Q2 was just 40% of the ads in Q3 2014. Postings per quarter have not been this low since Q2 2013. At the same time, however, online ads have increased by 222 and 199 in the last two years from Q2 to Q3, respectively.
Like other services such as health care, the demand for Retail & Hospitality occupations increases as the population grows and has more money to spend in the economy. Just five of the fifteen most in-demand Retail & Hospitality occupations in the Thumb region have a location quotient greater than 1.0, meaning that the concentration of workers in those occupations is greater than the national average. For example, cashiers have a location quotient (LQ) of 1.25 and so the concentration of these workers is 25% greater in the region than in other areas of the U.S. On the other hand, customer service representatives have an LQ of 0.67, indicating that the concentration of these workers is just 67% of the national average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. Workers do not typically pursue Retail and Hospitality jobs due to wages, which are relatively low. These jobs do, however, offer great flexibility and have a relatively low barrier to entry. They are often the first step for workers into the labor force where they can learn valuable skills that translate to other occupations that earn a higher wage. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require higher education, but many require specialized on-the-job training.
RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS Transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) workers help move materials in an efficient manner whether it is from one company to another or directly to a consumer. Logistics workers range from materials movers to logisitics analysts, coordinating and analyzing material and goods movement. With I-69 cooridor running straight through Region 7, TDL jobs are important to watch. In 2014, 30,083 workers were employer in the region in TDL occupations. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers have dominated Transportation, Distribution and Logistics (TDL) postings in the Thumb region each quarter in recent years and Q2 2015 was no different. Online ads for truck drivers doubled from 50 in Q1 to 101 in Q2. The high number of postings for this occupation strongly indicates that employers are having tremendous difficulty finding individuals to fill their open positions. The next most indemand occupation, labor and freight material movers, had just 13 postings in Q2.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP JOBS
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Postings for TDL occupations rose from 84 in Q1 to 127 in Q2, a 51% increase. The number of TDL postings is heavily dependent on postings for truck drivers. For example, truck driver postings accounted for nearly four out of every five online TDL ads in Q2. Despite the rise postings have not surpassed Q4 2014’s record of 215 online ads.
Unlike other clusters analyzed by WIN, many of the most in-demand TDL occupations in the Thumb region are more likely to have a location quotient (LQ) less than the national average. For example, freight and cargo inspectors have an LQ of 0.3, meaning that the concentration of these workers is just 30% of other areas in the U.S. on average. Bucking this trend are truck drivers with an LQ of 1.35, indicating that the concentration of these workers is 35% higher in the Thumb region that in the rest of the U.S. Despite a higher concentration, there are still not enough truck drivers to meet the demand of employers in recent quarters. While starting wages (10th percentile) for TDL occupations are low, the jobs with available data do show wage growth. Truck drivers, the most in-demand TDL occupation, offer median wages greater than $15 per hour. Many of these occupations do not require education beyond high school but rather shortterm on-the-job training once they have begun working. Truck drivers require a postsecondary non-degree award in order to obtain a license. Since there were no graduates for truck drivers in the Thumb region in 2013 and very few from surrounding counties, employers are most likely struggling to find workers and are hiring individuals from other areas in Michigan to meet demand needs.
TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
AGRICULTURE WIN’s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2014, 12,759 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 6. Landscaping and groundskeeping workers was the most in-demand Agriculture occupation in the Thumb region for Q2 2015. Postings are typically highest for this occupation in the first half of each year as employers ramp up staff for the busy business cycle from spring through fall. Other top jobs included animal farmworkers (3 ads), occupation health and safety specialists (3 ads) and crop farmworkers (3 ads).
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS
AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME
Online ads for Agriculture occupations decreased from 29 in Q1 to 24 in Q2 2015. Posting trends for this cluster are difficult to discern because of no recognizable patters. The number of postings fluctuate often between quarters. Postings for Agriculture occupations account for only 2.2% of all online job ads in the region.
A majority of the most in-demand Agriculture occupations have a location quotient greater than 1.0, meaning that the concentration of these workers is greater than the nation on average. Some of the occupations have extremely high concentrations of workers. For example, farm and ranch managers have a location quotient (LQ) of 4.39, indicating that the concentration of these workers is 339% higher in the Thumb region than other areas of the U.S. on average. Other high LQ’s include animal farmworkers (3.55) and crop farmworkers (3.29). Most of the entry-level wages (10th percentile) are below $15 per hour, however, half of the occupations with available data offer near or above $15 per hour at the median level. Most Agriculture occupations require a high school degree or less along with short to moderateterm on-the-job training to learn the necessary skills for these occupations. The higher wage occupations in this cluster often require a degree beyond high school.
AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT AND WAGES
TOP JOBS EDUCATION AND TRAINING REQUIREMENTS
SECTION THREE
LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND SUMMARY
The labor force in the Thumb region decreased by 232 individuals to 100,944 in Q2, a -0.2% drop. Meanwhile, employment increased for the first time Q2 2014; 94,427 individuals now have jobs in the region compared to 93,023 during Q1 2015 (1.5% increase). Should the labor force continue to decrease for the remainder of 2015—as historical trends suggest it will—the annual average will be lower than that of 2013. At the same time, however, employment continues to grow to levels not seen in the region since 2008. Between Q1 and Q2 2015 unemployment dropped by 1.6 percentage points in the Thumb region. The decrease to 6.5% unemployment was mostly due to people gaining jobs in the region but was also influenced by the shrinking labor force. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers once again represented the most in-demand occupation in the Thumb region during Q2 2015 according to online job postings. Job ads for truck drivers doubled from 50 in Q1 to 101 in Q2. Registered nurses maintained the second most in-demand position, with postings increasing from 40 in Q1 to 65 in Q2. These occupations consistently have high posting ranks throughout southeast Michigan. Online job postings grew marginally in the region from 1,099 in Q1 to 1,109 in Q2. Creating projections for future quarters is difficult in the Thumb region as there are no discernable historical trends. While postings in Q2 2015 were not as high as previous peaks, overall posting levels in the first half of 2015 remain higher than 2014 levels over the same period. Of the six occupation clusters analyzed by WIN in the Thumb region, three experienced an increase in postings between Q1 and Q2 (Engineers & Designers, Health Care, Transportation, Distribution & Logistics) while three experienced a decrease (Skilled Trades, Retail & Hospitality, Agriculture). The share of total postings for Health Care increased the most (8 percentage points) while share of postings for Retail & Hospitality decreased the most (8.8 percentage points). Q2 2015 marked the first quarter in which Retail & Hospitality did not hold the greatest share of postings. Of total online job postings in the Thumb Region, 64% are from one of the six target occupation groups.
HURON COUNTY POSTINGS Q2 2015
LAPEER COUNTY POSTINGS Q2 2015
SANILAC COUNTY POSTINGS Q2 2015
TUSCOLA COUNTY POSTINGS Q2 2015
SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage data that is not labeled as a national average is specific to each report's geography. For example, wage data reported in the WIN Region report is averaged across the 9-county WIN Region. Data in the Wayne County report is wage data solely for Wayne County. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm
DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.
DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH