Q2 2015
WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY: REGION 6
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 2nd QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 2nd quarter (Q2 includes April, May, and June) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the seven counties of Prosperity Region 6 (Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola). Below is a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety by using the link below:
The following pages include a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety on our wesbite: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
Q2 2015
Employment continues to increase in the region, adding 4,667 during Q2 2015 (1.3% over the previous quarter), and roughly 7,207 since Q3 2014. The region continues to gain jobs at roughly 1.7 percent per year since 2012, a slow but steady rate. While employment continued its year-to-year growth path, the labor force has not. Since 2011, the labor force has fluctuated on a standard business cycle but has not recovered from the drop experienced during the recession. For the past four years, the labor force has hovered around 392,000, and 2015 data shows no change from this average. In any given year, the first quarter traditionally reflects the lowest employment throughout the year. The same has held true so far for 2015. Online job postings bounced back during Q2 2015 after falling below 7,000 in Q1. Ads increased by 11%, from 6,862 in Q1 to 7,618 in Q2. Postings have remained high relative to previous year after an initial spike in Q3 2013 (9,708 postings). Since then, posting levels have fluctuated around 7,000 over the last seven quarters. “While posting growth from quarter to quarter is always nice to see, the consistency in postings across the past year and a half is promising stabilization for Region 6’s economy,” said Lisa Katz, executive director for the Workforce Intelligence Network. “WIN anticipates that job postings will continue to remain above the low levels seen in 2011 and 2012.” With the labor force remaining stagnant, shifting only slightly each quarter, it may be difficult for companies to fill open positions. “Without labor force expansion, employers may have reservations about expanding their workforce in the near future,” Katz added. With a smaller talent pool to choose from year after year, filling new, open positions becomes costly in both time and money. Hopefully, continued job gains and strong posting activity will encourage more workers to re-enter the labor market.” What other factors affect employment? Interest rate changes/signals, indices, and other metrics can help round out the employment story. • Interest rates are not going to rise anytime soon. If employers continue to add jobs at a slow rate (either due to company choices or lack of available talent) then interest rate increases may take time. For now, the Federal Reserve does not believe the economy is back where it should be in order to increase interest rates. While employment is increasing, it is a far cry from being close to “full-employment” levels that would warrant a shift in interest rates and increase the cost of borrowing. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/18/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-ratesyellen.html?_r=0 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) remains above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The June 2015 rate grew faster than previous rates indicating further economic growth and expansion. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=29403 • Consumer confidence, as surveyed by University of Michigan, shows an increasing pattern throughout early 2015. The first two months of Q3 2015 show a slight drop in sentiment but with levels still above 2014 averages. As consumer confidence increases and remains high, aggregate demand in the economy is likely to follow. http:// www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
TOTAL POSTINGS Q2 2015 From Q1 to Q2 2015, regional postings increased 11 percent to 7,618, the third highest number of online job ads ever recorded. Three of the six occupational clusters that WIN analyzes in depth (see below) gained postings during Q2 2015. Posting growth geographically was led by Genesee County with 60 percent of the total regional posting growth. Six of the seven counties in the region saw an increase in postings from Q1 to Q2 2015—online ads decreased by 2% in Lapeer County. Postings increased by more than 15 percent for three counties (Genesee, St. Clair, Shiawassee) while ads increased by less than two percent for the remaining three counties (Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola).
SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYS
HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks five key occupational clusters regularly, including Advanced Manufacturing (broken down by Engineer & Design occupations and Skilled Trades & Technician occupations), Health Care, Retail & Hospitality, Transportation, Distribution, and Logistics (TDL), and Agriculture. Together, these clusters accounted for 59.7 percent of all Q2 2015 online job ads in the region. Posting growth in the region was led by two occupational clusters: Health Care (20.3 percent growth), and TDL (36.6 percent growth). Nearly 95 percent of the increase in online postings during Q2 2015 occurred in WIN-analyzed clusters
See also the accompanying data tables for county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.
SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (706 postings) 2. Registered Nurses (323 postings) 3. Retail Salespersons (253 postings) 4. Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (232 postings) 5. Customer Service Representatives (204 postings) 6. First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (203 postings) 7. Medical and Health Services Managers (147 postings) 8. Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (136 postings) 9. Speech-Language Pathologists (105 postings) 10. Nursing Assistants (102 postings) Region Six’s top in-demand occupations have been relatively unchanged for over a year running. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers has been the number one posting job for six consecutive quarters. Depending on the point in the business cycle, registered nurses, retail salespersons or sales representatives will be somewhere between the two and four most indemand spots. During Q2 2015, the most notable shift in postings occurred in ads for truck drivers; postings for this occupation more than doubled from 50 in Q1 to 101 in Q2. Other notable trends include the following: • Demand for retail salespersons has decreased for three consecutive quarters, most recently dropping to 253 online ads in Q2. • Postings for computer-controlled machinists decreased from 51 in Q1 to just 7 in Q2, possibly indicating that employers successfully found talent for open positions in the region. • Postings for first-line supervisors of retail workers remained high in Q2 (203 ads), indicating that employers are continually searching for workers in these higher-wage management positions
SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT The 2015 data demonstrated further increases in employment in the region and continued stagnation in the labor force. Second quarter employment expanded 1.3 percent, adding 4,667 jobs throughout the region. Compared to Q3 2014, average employment is roughly 7,000 higher, a positive outcome over last year. While employment continued growing, the labor force did not follow the same trend. Since the end of the recession, the labor force has hovered around 392,000, and 2015 data shows no change from this average. With growing employment and no change in the labor force, the unemployment rate in the region continued to drop. During Q2 2015, the average unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, just a half percentage point from the state average of 5.5 percent. As the labor force was unchanged, the drop in unemployment in Q2 2015 can be attributed to job growth.
NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between the previously released Q4 2013 report and the Q1 2014 report. All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
ABOUT WIN
The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between eight community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges
Michigan Works! Agencies
Henry Ford Community College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
Detroit Employment Solutions Corp. Career Alliance Livingston County Michigan Works! Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works! Oakland County Michigan Works! Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Washtenaw County Michigan Works!
SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q2 2015
ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q2 2015
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q2 2015
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q2 2015
TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, & LOGISTICS POSTINGS Q2 2015
AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q2 2015
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH