WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY: REGION 6 Q3 2015
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 3rd QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 3rd quarter (Q3 includes July, August, and September) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the seven counties of Prosperity Region 6 (Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola). Below is a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety by using the link below:
The following pages include a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety on our wesbite: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
Q3 2015
Quarter three is often a time of continued labor market expansion in Southeast Michigan with more individuals in jobs and more looking for work. In Region Six, however, employment and the labor force tend to peak in Quarter two. Consequently, both had slight declines this past quarter. The labor force declined by 0.4% while employment decreased by 0.5%. Compared to Q3 2014, the labor force has declined by nearly 2,000 individuals (-0.5%). Meanwhile, employment has increased by over 6,000 workers (+1.7%). “The second and third quarter are often a welcome expansion each year with more and more individuals working,” said Lisa Katz, executive director for the Workforce Intelligence Network. Because of the negating changes in labor force participation and employment levels, the unemployment rate remained the same between Q2 and Q3 2015 at 6.3%. Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate for the 7-county area has decreased from 7.3%. Because labor force and employment have both grown since Q1 2015, the drop can be attributed to more Region 6 workers obtaining jobs. Third quarter often marks a peak in job postings compared to earlier in the year. Online job postings for the region increased 8.2% between quarters. Region 6 employer demand has remained fairly consistent, fluctuating around the 7,000 postings level since the beginning of 2014, but postings have increased each quarter since the beginning of 2015. “As WIN predicted, the third quarter re-emerged with postings reaching new highs and the employment expansion highlighting another quarter of growth,” added Katz. “If the fourth quarter follows the same trend the region will be well positioned going into 2016.” What other factors affect employment? Interest rate changes/signals, indices, and other metrics can help round out the employment story. • Interest rates are not likely to rise anytime soon despite continuous claims that the unemployment rates continuous drops indicate a coming increase. If employers continue to add jobs at a slow rate (either due to company choices or lack of available talent) then interest rate increases may take even more time. Reporters have noted strong employment for the past year should signal a looming increase, but these have yet to result in any changes for the Fed. For now, the Federal Reserve does not believe the economy is back where it should be in order to increase interest rates. While employment is increasing, it is a far cry from being close to “fullemployment” levels that would warrant a shift in interest rates and increase the cost of borrowing. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-october.html?_r=0 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) remains above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The September 2015 rate dropped but is still just above 50 percent, indicating a continuously strong economy. The nonmanufacturing and employment indices from this group were more positive than the PMI in September 2015.https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=30010 • Consumer confidence, as surveyed by University of Michigan, shows an increasing pattern throughout 2015. The first two months of Q3 2015 showed a slight drop in sentiment but with levels still above 2014 averages. October saw an overall rebound due to gains in confidence among lower income households. As consumer confidence increases and remains high, aggregate demand in the economy is likely to follow. http:// www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
TOTAL POSTINGS Q3 2015 From Q2 to Q3 2015, online job postings in Region 6 counties increased 8.2 percent with employers posting 8,240 ads between July and September. Postings for this region have largely hovered around the 7,000 mark for the past seven quarters but this level of postings is approaching the highest (9,982 postings in Q3 2013) seen in Region 6 since analysis began in Q1 2011. Posting growth geographically was led by Genesee County, 89% of the total regional posting growth. Total postings in Shiawassee and Tuscola decreased between quarters, by 13.6 and 12.9 percent, respectively.
SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYSIS
HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks five key occupational clusters in Region 6, including Advanced Manufacturing (broken down by Engineering & Design occupations and Skilled Trades & Technician occupations), Health Care, Retail & Hospitality, Transportation Distribution & Logistics, and Agriculture. Together, these clusters accounted for 60.7 percent of all Q3 2015 online job ads in the region. Only two of these occupational clusters experience major growth in postings during Q3 2015, compared to Q2; postings increased 36.1% in the Retail & Hospitality cluster, and 17.0% in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster. TDL occupations saw the largest decrease in online job postings this quarter (17.5%), even though postings for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers remain high.
During Q3 2015, 73 percent of total posting growth in the region occurred in WIN-analyzed clusters, an increase from the 46 percent of regional posting increases during Q2 2015. The remaining 30 percent of posting activity increases occurred in occupations not included in WIN’s commonly-tracked occupational clusters. The most notable growth in job postings outside of the WIN clusters occurred in the following occupations: • Human resources specialists • Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks • First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers • Accountants See also the accompanying data tables for county-by-county analysis by occupational cluster.
SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR SECOND QUARTER THREE 2015 WERE: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (470 postings) Retail salespersons (440 postings) Registered nurses (369 postings) Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products (314 postings)
5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (312 postings) Customer service representatives (235 postings) Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand (139 postings) Medical and health services managers (124 postings) Maintenance and repair workers, general (116 postings) Nursing assistants (103 postings)
The Region 6’s top in-demand occupations have been relatively unchanged for over a year running, but the occupations that comprise the list shift in rank order depending on the point in the business cycle. Seventeen of the top twenty occupations saw postings increase between Q2 and Q3 2015. During Q3 2015, the most notable trends include: • Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the region’s top job for the third quarter in a row despite postings falling from 706 in Q2 2015 to 470 in Q3. • Postings for registered nurses increased 12.4% to 369 in Q3 2015 from 323 in Q2 2015, marking yet another new high for the occupation. • Employer demand for production workers is on the rise. Postings for this occupation grew to 80 postings in Q3, from 35 in Q1 and 68 in Q2 2015, making production workers the newest edition to Region 6’s top jobs list. • Region 6 retailers are gearing up for the holiday shopping season; postings for retail salespersons jumped 42.5% during Q3 2015, making this occupation the second most indemand in the region.
SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION AND EMPLOYMENT Participation in the labor force and employment level remained fairly stagnant for Region 6, with negligible changes between Q2 and Q3 2015. The labor force participation level for the 7-county region decline by 0.4% and employment decreased 0.5%, or by 1,677 jobs between quarters. Because the decrease in labor force participation level is small, the Q3 numbers (392,178) are not far off from the recent peak of 394,024 individuals in Q3 2014. 367,392 individuals were employed in Region 6 during Q3. The small shifts in employment and labor force levels this quarter meant that the unemployment rate stagnated at 6.3%, but still lower than the rate of 7.3% in Q1 2015. Since the beginning of 2015, however, both the labor force and employment levels have grown, indicating that more Region 6 workers are seeking employment and gaining jobs.
NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/ launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Please visit our website at www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
ABOUT WIN
The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between eight community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
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Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
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SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q3 2015
ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q3 2015
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q3 2015
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q3 2015
TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, & LOGISTICS POSTINGS Q3 2015
AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q3 2015
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH