WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK Q2 2015
QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY: REGION 9
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 2nd QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 2nd quarter (Q2) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the 9 counties of Southeast Michigan (Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne) and the City of Detroit. The following pages include a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety on our wesbite: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
Q2 2015
Employment in Region 9 continues to grow, adding 7,055 jobs during Q2 2015. This growth in employment represents a 1.5% growth rate between quarters; employment in these six counties has also grown 1.6% in the year since Q2 2014. The labor force in Region 9’s counties has hovered around 495,000 since 2013, and 2015 averages to-date show the labor force at 498,573. Employer demand in Region 9 reached new heights during Q2 2015. Online job postings in the region reached 18,817, a 7.5% increase over posting levels during Q1 this year. Posting levels have remained high in Region 9 since a peak in postings at 19,980 in Q3 2013 indicating great employer need. The continued high levels of posting coupled with employment growth indicate further expansion of the Region 9 economy. With the labor force remaining stagnant, shifting up and down slightly each quarter, it may be difficult for employers to recruit for these vacant positions. Employers have found workers to fill some positions as emphasized by strong employment growth, however postings remain very high signaling the need for new workers to join the Region 9 labor force. What other factors affect employment? Interest rate changes/signals, indices, and other metrics can help round out the employment story. • Interest rates are not going to rise anytime soon. If employers continue to add jobs at a slow rate (either due to company choices or lack of available talent) then interest rate increases may take time. For now, the Federal Reserve does not believe the economy is back where it should be in order to increase interest rates. While employment is increasing, it is a far cry from being close to “full-employment” levels that would warrant a shift in interest rates and increase the cost of borrowing. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/18/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-ratesyellen.html?_r=0 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) remains above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The June 2015 rate grew faster than previous rates indicating further economic growth and expansion. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/content.cfm? ItemNumber=29403 • Consumer confidence, as surveyed by University of Michigan, shows an increasing pattern throughout early 2015. The first two months of Q3 2015 show a slight drop in sentiment but with levels still above 2014 averages. As consumer confidence increases and remains high, aggregate demand in the economy is likely to follow. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
TOTAL POSTINGS Q2 2015 Total online job postings increased 7.5% in Region 9 between Q1 and Q2 2015. Employers posted 18,817 job ads during Q2, the highest level seen since a peak at 19,980 in Q3 2013, which ushered in a new trend of higher postings. All occupational clusters analyzed by WIN experienced gains in postings this quarter, except IT which saw postings fall 3.5% from Q1 levels. Posting growth was led geographically by Washtenaw County, accounting for 58% of the increase in postings in the region between quarters. Online job ads grew in all Region 9 counties, except Hillsdale, where postings remained stagnant at 290 from Q1 to Q2.
SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYS
HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks six occupational clusters in Region 9, including skilled trades & technicians, engineers & designers, health care, information technology, retail & hospitality, and agriculture. Together these clusters accounted for 55 percent of all Q2 2015 online job ads in the region. Job demand in each of these occupational clusters, with the exception of IT, grew between Q1 and Q2 2015. Demand for the occupations in the IT cluster dropped 3.5% between quarters, after growing the fastest between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. The largest increase in employer demand this quarter was seen in Region 9’s Agriculture cluster; online job ads grew 13.1% for these occupations during Q2 compared to Q1. The 12.2% increase in postings this quarter in the Health Care cluster account for 22% of overall growth in employer demand in Region 9.
During Q2 2015, only 29 percent of the growth in total online job postings occurred in the WIN-analyzed clusters. The remaining 71% of posting activity increases occurred in occupations not included in WIN’s occupational clusters, meaning that other occupational clusters may be more important to Region 9’s economy than those currently being observed.
SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (1,086 postings) Registered nurses (776 postings) Software developers, applications (699 postings) Retail salesperson (518 postings) Customer services representatives (368 postings) Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products (362 postings) Maintenance and repair workers, general (340 postings) First-line supervisors of retail sales workers (328 postings) Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive (308 postings) Medical and health services managers (246 postings)
Region 9’s top in-demand occupations remain relatively unchanged, but the occupations shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle. Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the top in-demand position once again, with 1,086 online ads in Q2 2015, up 26% over Q1’s 800 postings for the occupation. Retail salespersons and registered nurses are also some of the region’s most in-demand occupations, again this quarter. Software developers, applications, Q1’s second most in-demand occupation, had 699 job postings during Q2 and ranks 3rd this quarter.
SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT The 2015 data demonstrated further increases in employment in Region 9 while the labor force remains fairly stagnant, comparatively. In any given year, the first quarter traditionally reflects the lowest employment throughout the year. The same has held true so far for 2015; Q2 employment is 1.5% greater than Q1 numbers, adding over 7,000 jobs across the region. Employment in Region 9 is growing faster than the labor force, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. This is the first quarter where the labor force has reached over 500,000 since early 2009. Labor force is up 1.1% over Q1 2015 counts, but remains stagnant when comparing annual averages. With growing employment and no significant change in the labor force, the unemployment rate in Region 9 continues to drop. During Q2 2015, the region’s average unemployment rate was 4.4%, well below the state average of 5.5%. Because employment grew faster than the labor force between quarters, the drop in the unemployment rate this quarter can be attributed mostly to job growth.
NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between the previously released Q4 2013 report and the Q1 2014 report. All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
ABOUT WIN
The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between eight community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges
Michigan Works! Agencies
Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
Detroit Employment Solutions Corp. Genesee-Shiawassee Michigan Works! Livingston County Michigan Works! Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works! Oakland County Michigan Works! Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Washtenaw County Michigan Works!
SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q2 2015
ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q2 2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POSTINGS Q2 2015
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q2 2015
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q2 2015
AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q2 2015
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH