Q3 2015
WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK
QUARTERLY DATA SUMMARY: REGION 9
CONTENTS Overview County-By-County Analysis Occupational Cluster Analysis Highest Posting Occupations Labor Market Participation and Employment
JOB DEMAND SUMMARY: 3rd QUARTER 2015 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND FINDINGS The Workforce Intelligence Network for Southeast Michigan (WIN) released 3rd quarter (Q3) 2015 labor market trends, including real-time employer demand determined through online job postings, for the six counties of Prosperity Region 9 (Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw). The following pages include a summary of the county-by-county reports, which can be found in their entirety on our wesbite: www.win-semich.org/data-research/quarterly-reports/
SECTION ONE OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
Q3 2015
After two quarters of growth employment in Region 9 decreased, removing 4,190 jobs during Q3 2015. This drop in employment represents a 0.9% decline between quarters. Overall, employment was higher during Q3 2015 compared to the same quarter last year, Q3 2014. Region 9’s labor force also decreased during Q3 2015 with 4,030 (-0.8%) individuals leaving the labor force. Despite decreases in employment and the labor force, employer demand in Region 9 continued to grow to new heights during Q3 2015. Online job postings in the region reached 20,319, an eight percent increase over posting levels during Q2 2015. A continuation of high level posting should spur further expansion of Region 9’s economy and employment numbers. The stagnant labor force, however, could make it difficult for employers to find workers for new openings as the available talent pool continues to shrink. New workers will need to join Region 9’s labor force for further economic growth. What other factors affect employment? Interest rate changes/signals, indices, and other metrics can help round out the employment story. • Interest rates are not likely to rise anytime soon despite continuous claims that the unemployment rates continuous drops indicate a coming increase. If employers continue to add jobs at a slow rate (either due to company choices or lack of available talent) then interest rate increases may take even more time. Reporters have noted strong employment for the past year should signal a looming increase, but these have yet to result in any changes for the Fed. For now, the Federal Reserve does not believe the economy is back where it should be in order to increase interest rates. While employment is increasing, it is a far cry from being close to “full-employment” levels that would warrant a shift in interest rates and increase the cost of borrowing. http:// www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-october.html? _r=0 • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI-manufacturing) remains above 50 percent for all of 2015 thus far. A PMI above 50 percent indicates that manufacturing is expanding and hiring will increase. The September 2015 rate dropped but is still just above 50 percent, indicating a continuously strong economy. The non-manufacturing and employment indices from this group were more positive than the PMI in September 2015. https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/content.cfm? ItemNumber=30010
• Consumer confidence, as surveyed by University of Michigan, shows an increasing pattern throughout 2015. The first two months of Q3 2015 showed a slight drop in sentiment but with levels still above 2014 averages. October saw an overall rebound due to gains in confidence among lower income households. As consumer confidence increases and remains high, aggregate demand in the economy is likely to follow. http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
SECTION TWO COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ANALYSIS
TOTAL POSTINGS Q3 2015 Total online job postings increased by eight percent, from 18,817 in Q2 to 20,319 in Q3 2015. Geographically, Hillsdale led the six counties of Region 9 in terms of percentage growth between Q2 and Q3 2015 with a 26% increase in online job ads. This substantial growth, however, is mostly due to the small number of postings in Hillsdale compared to the region as a whole—Hillsdale’s 365 online ads in Q3 accounted for just 1.8% of total postings in Region 9. While all Region 9 counties saw growth between quarters, postings in Lenawee and Jackson increased by less than one percent. Washtenaw County led the region in volume of postings with an additional 1,139 ads compared to Q2. The 12,519 online job postings for Washtenaw accounted for 62% of all postings in Region 9 during Q3. Double-digit percentage growth also occurred in Livingston (10.3%) as postings increased from 2,100 in Q2 to 2,300 in Q3.
SECTION THREE
OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER ANALYS
HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS WIN tracks six occupational clusters in Region 9, including Skilled Trades & Technicians, Engineers & Designers, Health Care, Information Technology, Retail & Hospitality, and Agriculture. Together these clusters accounted for 58 percent of all Q3 2015 online job ads in the region. Posting growth occurred during Q3 for all six of the occupation clusters analyzed by WIN. The Agriculture cluster had the smallest growth of just 0.8% while Skilled Trades & Technicians, IT, and Retail & Hospitality saw double-digit growth. Highest growth was for Retail & Hospitality (23.4%), most likely due to employers preparing for the busy holiday retail season.
Roughly 91 percent of growth in total online job postings can be attributed to WIN-analyzed clusters. The remaining nine percent of posting activity occurred in occupations not included in WIN’s occupational clusters. Some of this growth occurred in top posting occupations not within WIN’s cluster analysis such as truck drivers, human resource specialists, and managers.
SECTION FOUR HIGHEST POSTING OCCUPATIONS
THE REGION’S TOP 10 JOB POSTINGS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER 2015 WERE: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Registered nurses (805 postings) Software Developers, Applications (761 postings) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (759 postings) Retail Salespersons (731 postings) Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing (487 postings) First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (442 postings) Customer Service Representatives (414 postings) Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (375 postings) Secretaries and Administrative Assistants (347 postings) Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (254 postings)
The top in-demand jobs within Region 9 remain relatively unchanged from quarter to quarter, however, the occupations do shift in order depending on the point in the business cycle. Of the 20 top posting jobs during the third quarter, 18 had an increase in online ads between Q2 and Q3 2015. The previous top job, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, saw a 30% reduction in postings between quarters (1,086 ads down to 759). Such a reduction in ads could signal that employers in the region are having more success in finding talent for their open positions. Registered nurses are the now the most in-demand job in Region 9 and is consistently among the top posting occupations. Four new occupations were added to the top jobs in Region 9: • • • •
Computer systems analysts Mechanical engineers Nursing assistants Cashiers
SECTION FIVE
LABOR MARKET PARTICPATION AND EMPLOYMENT Averaging the first three quarters of the year show that 2015 is on track to have the highest recorded employment since early 2008. While the annual average looks promising, both the labor force and employment dropped minimally (by less than one percent) between Q2 and Q3 2015. The labor force decreased by 4,030 individuals from 501,965 in Q2 to 497,935 in Q3 (-0.8%). Employment decreased by 4,190 workers from 478,885 in Q2 to 474,695 in Q3 (-0.9%). A decline in both the labor force and employment levels is off-trend for the area. Typically both increase during Q3, however, this year the peak occurred during Q2.Despite the slight decrease, both the labor force and employment remain well above recession levels. The region’s average unemployment rate during 2015, to date, is 4.6%, a 1.3 percentage point drop from 2014’s average rate of 5.9%. Since employment decreased faster than the labor force during Q3, unemployment did increase by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%. While unemployment did increase, the region has one of the lowest rates in the state (5.5% statewide average rate for this period).
NOTES: Updated job posting and labor force data: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between the previously released Q4 2013 report and the Q1 2014 report. All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. More information can be found here: www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Check out our website www.win-semich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.
ABOUT WIN
The Workforce Intelligence Network of Southeast Michigan (WIN) is a collaborative effort between eight community colleges and seven Michigan Works! Agencies, in partnership with numerous other organizations, to create a comprehensive and cohesive workforce development system in Southeast Michigan that provides employers with the talent they need for success. WIN covers a 9-county area, including Genesee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne. WIN was founded with the support of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan and publicly launched in November 2011.
WIN PARTNERS Community Colleges
Michigan Works! Agencies
Henry Ford College Macomb Community College Monroe County Community College Mott Community College Oakland Community College Schoolcraft College St. Clair County Community College Washtenaw Community College Wayne County Community College District
Detroit Employment Solutions Corp. GST Michigan Works! Macomb/St. Clair Michigan Works! Oakland County Michigan Works! Southeast Michigan Community Alliance Southeast Michigan Works! Consortium
SKILLED TRADES & TECHNICIANS POSTINGS Q3 2015
ENGINEERS & DESIGNERS POSTINGS Q3 2015
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY POSTINGS Q3 2015
HEALTH CARE POSTINGS Q3 2015
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS Q3 2015
AGRICULTURE POSTINGS Q3 2015
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH