Rpi region 6 q4 2015 report optimizedfinal by Workforce Intelligence Network

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 RPI REGION 6 Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary

CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Health Care Retail & Hospitality Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics Agriculture

Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 6 includes 7 counties: Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, Saint Clair, Shiawassee, and Tuscola. This report focuses on the 7-county region as a whole.

SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Findings 1. Employment continues to increase while labor force decline slows. Employment in Region 6 continues to have slow yet steady growth as it continues to recover from the Great Recession. Employment has increased in Region 6 since 2010. While employment growth has occurred, the labor force continues to decline. Despite the decline, labor force losses have decelerated since a brief increase in 2013. Employment growth outpacing the labor force decline has resulted in a decreasing unemployment rate.

2. Largest drop in employer demand witnessed between Q3 and Q4 2015. Online job postings in Region 6 decreased from 8,240 in Q3 to 5,813 in Q4 2014 (-29.5%). Historically, postings decrease in the region during Q4 and this past quarter represented the most substantial drop since Q4 2012. Since a peak in Q3 2013, employer demand, as evidenced by online postings, has been relatively unchanged. Region 6 averaged 7,133 online job ads per quarter in 2015. Despite the lack of growth in employer demand, Region 6 employment increased in 2015.

3. Health care occupations seem to be recession-proof. Despite the decline in most other sectors during Q4, demand and employment for health care workers continued to grow throughout 2015 in Region 6. Demand for registered nurses (RNs) continued its incessant rise, with postings increasing from 369 in Q3 to 531 in Q4 2015 (+43.9%). Employment in the health care occupation cluster increased from 31,045 workers in 2014 to 31,350 in 2015 (+1.0%). Despite a few years with minor decreases, health care employment has generally increased on an annual basis since 2001. 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4. The top occupation within clusters drive demand. The top jobs for each cluster in Region 6 has a larger share of ads for its respective cluster compared to other regions. See below a list of the top occupations in each of the clusters in Region 6 and their respective shares of ads. • Production workers, 23.9% of online ads in skilled trades • Electrical engineers, 25.3% of online ads in engineers & designers • Registered nurses, 38.2% of online ads in health care • Retail salespersons, 18.4% of online ads in retail & hospitality • Truck drivers, 70.8% of online ads in TDL • Sales representatives of technical and scientific products, 34.2% of online ads in agriculture

5. Region 6 workers paid substantially less than national averages. For all occupations, the average workers in Region 6 earns $2.17 per hour less than the national average (-10.5%). Workers in the six occupation clusters analyzed by WIN also, on average, receive less than average. • Skilled trades workers earn about $2 less per hour than national counterparts • Engineers earns about $6 less per hour than national counterparts • Health care workers earn about $1.30 less per hour than national counterparts • Retail & hospitality workers earn about $1.50 less per hour than national counterparts • Workers in transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) earn about $2 less per hour than national counterparts • Workers in agriculture earn about $3 less per hour than national counterparts

SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies The top three in-demand occupations in Region 6 during Q3 maintained the same positioning in Q4 2015. Truck drivers remained the top posting job with ads increasing from 470 in Q3 to 551 in Q4 2015 (+17.0%). This occupation has been the most in-demand in Region 6 throughout 2015. Fifteen of the top twenty occupations from Q4 2014 remained in the top list for this past quarter. New to the top 20 include: • Secretaries and administrative assistants • Pharmacy technicians • LPNs • Delivery service drivers • Janitors and cleaners Postings for childcare workers decreased from 246 in Q4 2014 to just 14 this past quarter (-94.3%).

EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

Online job postings in Region 6 decreased from 8,240 in Q3 to 5,813 in Q4 2014 (-29.5%). Historically, postings decrease in the region during Q4 and this past quarter represented the most substantial drop since Q4 2012. Since a peak in Q3 2013, employer demand, as evidenced by online postings, has been relatively unchanged. Region 6 averaged 7,133 online job ads per quarter in 2015. Despite the lack of growth in employer demand, Region 6 employment increased in 2015.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Employment in Region 6 continues to have slow yet steady growth as it continues to recover from the Great Recession. Employment has increased in Region 6 since 2010. While employment growth has occurred, the labor force continues to decline. Despite the decline, labor force losses have decelerated since a brief increase in 2013. Employment growth outpacing the labor force decline has resulted in a decreasing unemployment rate. Both the labor force and employment tend to peak in late Spring/early Summer, most likely due to temporary employment in agriculture and tourism.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

Companies in Region 6 employed 371,159 workers as of November 2015. An estimated 369,766 individuals worked in Region 6 during Q4, a +0.7% increase from Q3. November 2015 reported 390,797 individuals in the labor force. An estimated 390,002 people participated in the Region 6 labor force during Q4, a -0.2% decrease from Q3. Unemployment continued its downward descent with Q4 estimates at 5.2%, just above the state average of 5.1% but 0.8 percentage points lower than Q3 unemployment rate of 6.0%. The November 2015 unemployment rate in Region 6 was 5.0%. Since employment grew at a faster rate than the labor force decreased, the drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to individuals gaining jobs.

SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

WIN REGION DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 11,640 individuals in Region 6. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Production workers remained the most in-demand advanced manufacturing skilled trades occupation in Region 6 despite postings decreasing from 80 in Q3 to 68 in Q4 2015 (-15.0%). Online ads for CC machine tool operators decreased from 18 in Q3 to 8 in Q4 (-55.6%), possibly indicating that Region 6 successfully found talent to fill open positions. Other occupations in the advanced manufacturing skilled trades generally sustained the same amount of demand. The top two posting occupations accounted for 41.4% of all online ads for this cluster in Q4.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings for advanced manufacturing skilled trades jobs decreased from 338 in Q3 to 285 in Q4 2015 (-15.7%). While postings typically decline between Q3 and Q4 in Region 6, the lack of volatility compared to previous years was a positive sign. Since Q1 2014, online ads for this cluster in region 6 have general flattened, fluctuating between 280 and 330 posts per quarter. Occupations in the advanced manufacturing skilled trades cluster accounted for 3.9% of total online postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. Similar to postings, employment for this cluster has flatlined in the region.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in Region 6 for skilled trades occupations increased to 11,640, 0.6% higher than the 11,568 workers in 2014. Skilled trades employment had been decreasing throughout the first decade of the 2000â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s but began to rebound in 2009. Employment has recovered 30.6% since the 2009 low but remains well below early 2000 levels. On average, skilled trades employers posted 17 online ads per net new job, similar to the southeast Michigan average of 15.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Just one-third of the top skilled trades occupations in Region 6 offer a living wage ($15+ per hour) at entrylevel earnings (10th percentile). At median hourly earnings, 12 of the jobs offer wages greater than $15 per hour. Supervisors of production workers offer the most upward mobility, with very experienced supervisors (90th percentile) earning $46.05 per hour ($95,784 annually). The typical worker in advanced manufacturing skilled trades in Region 6 earns two dollars less per hour than their counterparts around the country.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. Southeast Michigan boasts an impressive concentration of skilled trades workers with all 15 of the most in-demand occupations in Region 6 having an LQ greater than one. Tool and die makers have a particularly high concentration with 485% more workers in the region compared the U.S. averages. In contrast, welders have just a 3% higher 20 concentration.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership. Occupations in the Skilled Trades cluster often require training, especially as modern equipment and tools necessitate advanced specialization. Technicians boast the highest number of graduates in related fields relative to other Skilled Trades occupations. In contrast, CC machine tool operators had just seven graduates in 2014, despite being one the most in-demand Skilled Trade occupations throughout southeast Michigan.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

While two-thirds of the most in-demand Skilled Trades occupations in Region 6 require a high school degree, in reality, employers prefer candidates with experience or specialized training in these fields. The ten occupations that require just a high school degree also require moderate to long-term on-the-job training. The technician occupations typically require an Associateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Degree, while supervisors need a post-secondary award. As a result of the necessary higher education, these occupations typically lead the Skilled Trades in wages offered.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 3,211 employed individuals in Region 6 during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Despite a drop in postings, electrical engineers remained the most in-demand engineering occupation in Region 6 this past quarter. Online ads decreased from 55 in Q3 to 46 in Q4 2015 (-16.4%). Only the top five engineer & design occupations in Region 6 consistently have double digit ads per quarter. Those include: • Electrical engineers • Mechanical engineers • Manufacturing engineers • Industrial engineers • Civil engineers These five occupations accounted for roughly three out of every four online postings for engineers in Region 6 during Q4 2015. 24

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online ads for engineer & designer occupations decreased from 199 in Q3 to 178 in Q4 2015 (-10.6%). Q4 2015 marked the second consecutive quarter of decline in postings. The engineer & design occupation cluster accounted for 2.5% of all postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. Despite the drop in postings in the second half of 2015, employment has continued to grow.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the engineers and designers occupation cluster increased from 3,160 workers in 2014 to 3,211 in 2015 (+1.6%). From 2001 to 2009, employment dropped precipitously. While 2015 marked a fifth year of growth in the six years since 2009, employment has only increased an average of 4.3% per year. In contrast, from 2001 to 2009 employment decreased at a rate of 9.7% per year. Region 6 employers posted nearly 16 online ads per net new job in 2015 (not including turnover). Comparatively, southeast Michigan employers posted 11 online job ads per net new engineer employee hired.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

All of the most in-demand Engineer occupations in Region 6 offer a wage of at least $15 per hour at the entrylevel (10th percentile). Most offer initial wages between $25 and $30 per hour. Manufacturing and industrial safety engineers offer the most upward mobility with wages exceeding $60 per hour ($124,800 annually) for the most experienced (90th percentile) workers in these fields. The typical engineer in Region 6 earns about $5.90 less per hour than their counterparts throughout the United States.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The southeast Michigan region boasts impressive concentrations of engineers. For example, mechanical engineers have an LQ of 6.46, indicating that these workers have a 546% higher concentration in the region compared to U.S. averages. In contrast, chemical engineers have just 56% the typical U.S. concentration in southeast Michigan.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership. The Engineer and Designer cluster typically requires students from four-year universities with highly specialized STEM skills. While mechanical engineers seem to have a high number of graduates relative to other engineering occupations, the number of postings in the WIN southeast Michigan region for this occupation during Q4 2015 (2,259) was more than double the number of new graduates in all of 2014 (936).

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

With exception to the two drafting occupations, all of the most in-demand jobs for this cluster require a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Degree for entry-level openings. The highly advanced mathematical skills required to complete degrees for these occupations and their high demand help explain the high wages offered.

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 31,350 employees in 2015 in Region 6. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Demand for registered nurses (RNs) continued its incessant rise, with postings increasing from 369 in Q3 to 531 in Q4 2015 (+43.9%). Online ads for pharmacists dropped by nearly half from 44 in Q3 to 19 in Q4. Such a drastic decline could indicate that employers successfully found talent for at least a portion of open positions. In contrast, Physicians and surgeons jumped into the top jobs list with online ads nearly doubling from 15 in Q3 to 29 in Q4 2015. RNs accounted for 38.2% of all online ads for health care occupations in Region 6 during Q4 2015.

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online ads for occupations in the health care cluster increased from 1,321 in Q3 to 1,389 in Q4 2015 (+5.1%). While postings have historically declined for health care in Region 6 between Q3 and Q4, 2015 bucked that trend as employer demand continued to increase. This past quarter marked the fourth consecutive quarter of postings growth. The 1,389 online ads in Q4 were just shy of the historic record in the region of 1,414 postings during Q3 2013. Online ads for the health care occupation cluster accounted for 19.2% of all postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. The increase in demand has paralleled the increase in employment over the past year.

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the health care occupation cluster increased from 31,045 workers in 2014 to 31,350 in 2015 (+1.0%). Despite a few years with minor decreases, health care employment has generally increased on an annual basis since 2001. The recession did not influence health care occupationsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;at least from an employment perspectiveâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;as it did with other sectors of the economy. Health care employers in Region 6 posted nearly 17 online ads per net new hire in 2015 (not including turnover). Comparatively, employers in the WIN southeast Michigan region posted over 40 online ads per net new hire, indicating that Region 6 has a lesser supplydemand gap issue.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for Health Care occupations widely vary depending on the education and skills required. The indemand jobs offering entry-level (10th percentile) wages above $15 per hour typically require Masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s or Professional degrees. Not until the 75th percentile do all of the top occupations in this cluster offer wages greater than $15 per hour. Physicians, physical therapists, physician assistants, and speech-language pathologists offer the greatest upward mobility but also demand the most education. The typical Region 6 worker in Health Care earns $1.30 less per hour than counterparts across the nation. 35

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. Despite having a strong health care system, southeast Michigan does not boast concentrations of these workers substantially higher than U.S. averages. This makes sense because health care needs, while driven by consumer demand, is roughly similar across all metro areas. Southeast Michigan is not as competitive for medical records and health information technicians. These workers are in high demand and employers are likely having trouble filling open positions. Note, this is also one of the lower paying health care jobs for entry-level wages. If 36 demand continues to increase, wages may rise.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, the number of graduates with certificates and degrees related to in-demand health care fields was not adequate to meet demand. The disconnect between the level of degree required for nursing and the level of degree graduates attain in the region exacerbates the supplydemand mismatch. Many individuals complete two-year degrees in nursing to become an LPN, however, most health systems and hospitals now require new nursing staff to hold four-year degrees. This, and demand for other nursing specialists, furthers the divide between employer demand and the supply of qualified workers. 37

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

All but two in-demand Health Care occupations require post-secondary training or education for entry-level positions. Most require a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher. For select occupations, like pharmacy technicians, on-the-job training is important. Similar to other occupation clusters, wages in Health Care increase with educational attainment. Beyond high levels of education, top occupations in this cluster often require previous experience in the industry as well.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 77,294 individuals were employment in retail and hospitality related occupations in Region 6.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies The top four retail & hospitality occupations from Q3 2015 maintained in the top four for Q4 despite seeing a decrease in postings. No occupations moved out or in of the top 20 between Q3 and Q4. Online ads for retail salespersons decreased from 440 in Q3 to 321 in Q4 (-27.0%). Postings only increased between Q3 and Q4 for food preparation and serving workers (+21.4%). The top four occupations accounted for more than half of online ads for the retail & hospitality cluster in Region 6 during Q4 2015.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online ads for retail & hospitality occupations dropped from 2,256 in Q3 to 1,743 in Q4 2015 (-22.7%). Postings in retail & hospitality historically decline in the region between Q3 and Q4. Excluding the jump in postings during Q3, online ads for retail occupations have generally declined since Q4 2013. Retail & hospitality occupations accounted for 18.7% of postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. Despite the decline in demand over the past two years, employment has continued to rise.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Retail & hospitality employment increased from 76,433 in 2014 to 77,294 in 2015 (+1.1%). Following a period of stagnation in the early 2000â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, retail employment dropped precipitously during and immediately after the recession from 2007-2010. Since 2010, employment has grown an average of 1.1% per year. While growing, retail employment in Region 6 remained well below pre-recession levels in 2015. Region 6 employers posted roughly nine online ads per net new hire in retail during 2015 (not including turnover), about on par with the southeast Michigan average.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Just one of the top retail & hospitality occupations in Region 6 offer an hourly wage higher than $15 at the entry-level (10th percentile). At the median level, seven jobs offer wages higher than $15 per hour. The occupations that offer the most upward mobility include sales representatives and managers which require a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree and years of experience for supervisor roles. The typical retail worker in Region 6 earns $1.50 less per hour on average compared to counterparts nationally.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. Southeast Michigan is not particularly competitive in its concentration of retail hospitality workers. This makes sense since consumer demand drives employment in this cluster and is roughly similar across all metro areas. The southeast Michigan region has a 19% higher employment concentration of sales representatives (nontechnical products) than the national average. 44

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require an advanced degree. Sales managers have a large number of graduates with related degrees because the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s educational programs graduate a large number of students with training in business management. For certain occupations where specialized training is essential, marketing managers, cooks, technical sales, etc. very few graduates exist to fill employer needs. 45

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

While 12 of the top 15 R&H occupations require a high school degree or less, most require non-credit training, and employers often prefer workers with previous experience. The higher paying sales and managerial occupations typically require a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree.

TRANSPORTATION DISTRIBUTION AND LOGISTICS Transportation, distribution, and logistics (TDL) workers help move materials in an efficient manner whether it is from one company to another or directly to a consumer. Logistics workers range from materials movers to logistics analysts, coordinating and analyzing material and goods movement. With I-69 corridor running straight through Region 7, TDL jobs are important to watch. In 2015, 31,627 workers were employed in Region 6 in TDL occupations.

TDL TDL: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Once again, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers remained as the most in-demand occupations for Region 6â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s transportation, distribution, & logistics (TDL) cluster. Ads for truck drivers increased from 470 in Q3 to 551 in Q4 2015 (+17.2%). This occupation continually has the highest number of postings in the region and typically outpaces the next most in-demand job by an ad ratio of 5:1. Laborers continued to dominate postings as well with 108 online ads this past quarter.

TDL ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online ads for the TDL cluster increased from 738 in Q3 to 778 in Q4 2015 (+5.4%). Historically, TDL postings decrease between Q3 and Q4 but the past two years have bucked that trend. Online ads for this cluster have been volatile over the last five quarters but generally trend upwards. The volatility often has to do with the number of postings for truck drivers in a given quarter. TDL occupations accounted for 10.7% of postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. The increased demand, as seen through a higher level of postings, has not yet translated to an increased employment growth rate.

TDL EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

TDL employment increased from 30,905 in 2014 to 31,627 in 2015 (+2.3%). Unlike other sectors of the economy, the recession did not seem to influence TDL employment. TDL employment declined gradually throughout the first decade of the 2000â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s but began to rebound in 2010. Most recently, 2015 employment surpassed 2008 levels. Region 6 employers posted just four online ads per net new hire in TDL during 2015 (not including turnover).

TDL TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Just three of the top TDL occupations in Region 6 offer an hourly wage higher than $15 at the entry-level (10th percentile). At the median level, seven jobs offer wages higher than $15 per hour. The occupations that offer the most upward mobility include workers in logistics and supervisors. The typical TDL worker in Region 6 earns about two dollars less per hour on average compared to counterparts nationally. 51

TDL TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. With exception to workers in logistics, the southeast Michigan region is not particularly competitive in its concentration of TDL workers. Truck drivers, the most in-demand TDL occupation, has an LQ of just 0.9, indicating that the concentration of these workers is just 90% of the national average.

TDL TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in Southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16 counties in the WIN partnership. Most TDL jobs do not require an advanced degree. Truck drivers typically require a post-secondary award or training culminating in a CDL license. This data in this report does not capture all CDL licenses received in southeast Michigan but does show that those enrolling and finishing specialized training programs in the field are rare. The constant demand reflected in online postings indicates that too few individuals are receiving training to fulfill open positions.

TDL TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Most of the TDL cluster occupations do not require more than a high school diploma for entrylevel work, however, employers may value other training or certifications. High paying logistics positions require a Bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree from applicants.

AGRICULTURE WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2015, 13,132 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Region 6.

AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies The low number of online job ads posted in the Agriculture occupation cluster makes it difficult to track trends in top jobs over time. The only exception would be sales representatives for technical products which is consistently the top posting occupation in agriculture for Region 6. A reason for the low number of postings may be that agriculture employers rely on recruiting and hiring methods outside of online job postings.

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online ads for agriculture occupations decreased from 153 in Q3 to 120 in Q4 2015 (-21.6%). Historically, postings in agriculture decline in the region between Q3 and Q4. Online ads have decreased for a third consecutive quarter. The agriculture cluster accounted for just 1.7% of all online postings in Region 6 during Q4 2015. Despite the decline in postings throughout 2015, employment actually increased. This further bolsters the argument that agriculture employers in Region 6 most likely use other methods than online postings to recruit talent.

AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Agriculture employment increased from 12,977 in 2014 to 13,132 in 2015 (+1.2%). Unlike other sectors of the economy, the recession did not seem to hold influence over agriculture employment in Region 6. Following a dip in employment from 2004 to 2005, the number of workers in agriculture has increased nine of the past ten years. The past year marked a historic high in agriculture employment for Region 6. Region 6 employers posted just four online ads per net new hire in agriculture during 2015, again strengthening the idea that employers use other sources than online ads for filling open positions.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Many skilled trade jobs do not require a degree but instead, a special certification and on-the-job training. Technician positions require an associateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in engineering. While there are grads in the area with training related to the top skilled trade jobs, there are not enough to fill all open positions, as employer-demand for workers continues to increase, and the current workforce approaches retirement age. 59

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

Wages in the agriculture occupational cluster vary widely depending on the educational background of the worker. Ten of the fifteen top agriculture jobs in Region 6 offer at least $15 per hour at the median level. Natural science managers, veterinarians, and sales representatives for technical and scientific products offer the most upward mobility. The typical agriculture worker in Region 6 earns $2.90 less per hour than counterparts around the nation.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Education and training requirements for occupations in the Agriculture cluster vary. Because many degree programs can prepare a person for multiple jobs, completions data from 2014 show that 3,280 southeast Michigan students graduated from a program that prepared them to work as natural sciences managers, although most will likely not pursue that career choice. Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH