Rpi region 9 q4 2015 report optimizedfinal by Workforce Intelligence Network

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 PROSPERITY REGION 9 Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary

CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality Agriculture

Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Prosperity Region 9 includes 6 counties: Hillsdale, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, and Washtenaw. This report focuses on the region as a whole.

SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Prosperity Region 9 experienced growth in both employment and the size of the labor force as a whole while the unemployment rate fell below 4%. The labor force in Prosperity Region 9 increased 1.3% to 503,143, up from 496,904, while employment grew at a slightly higher rate (1.9%), from 475,060 to 483,949. Employment in Region 9 is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. The labor force reached over 500,000 earlier in 2015, which is a first since early 2009. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in November 2015, which is the lowest Prosperity Region 9 has seen throughout all of 2015. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains.

Software developers are in high demand, however, employers throughout Prosperity Region 9 are having a hard time finding qualified candidates to fill openings. Software developers continue to dominate the top jobs list for the Information Technology cluster, providing 30.0% of the total postings for Q4 2015 (606 of the 1,992 total postings). Growth in this cluster has been trending upward since 2010. The net employment gain is steady, with about 20 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. Employers seeking information technology workers in Prosperity Region 9 are likely experiencing difficulty finding qualified candidates based upon the higher posting intensity. Adding to the talent deficiency in software development are less than adequate graduation and completion rates for related programs compared to the number of regional openings.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Southeast Michigan has a higher concentration of skilled trades when workers compared to the rest of the nation. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Skilled Trades cluster with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have a LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 5.85 times (485% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average.

Registered nurses top the in-demand job posting list for Q4 2015 in Prosperity Region 9. Registered nurses increased by 133 postings (16.5%) to 938 from the third quarter to the fourth in 2015. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014), the demand for registered nurses has increased by 108.4%

Southeast Michigan employers offer highly competitive wages in both engineering and design and information technology occupations. Nearly all occupations within the engineering and design and information technology clusters have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually.

SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

During the fourth quarter of 2015, registered nurses maintained the top posting position. Postings for registered nurses increased by 133 postings (16.5%) from the third quarter to the fourth. Demand for retail sales persons dropped 16% from 731 in Q3 to 614 in Q4 2015, but moved from the fourth to the third most in-demand occupation. Demand for software developers dropped 20.4% from 761 in Q3 to 606 in Q4 2015 and fell from the second most in-demand occupation to the fourth. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014), the top jobs have shifted. Truck drivers are no longer the most in-demand occupation, and demand for registered nurses has increased by over 100% (108.4%, 938 postings). New to the top occupations are cashiers, delivery drivers, managers, mechanical engineers, and postsecondary teachers. No longer in the top twenty compared to one year ago are childcare workers, computer user support specialists, food service supervisors, maids and housekeepers, and merchandise displayers and window trimmers. 7

EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

Online job ads dropped 1,349, -6.6%, from 20,319 in Q3 2015 to 18,870 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an increasing trend despite the recent drop. Employment is also steadily increasing highlighting the connection between online job ads and hiring.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

Employment continues to trend upward with seasonal declines seen in December/ January and July/August of each year. The labor force is also trending upward, however, it is not seeing the same level of growth as employment in the years since the recession. The unemployment rate has continued to fall with seasonal spikes which match employment declines.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

The labor force in Prosperity Region 9 increased 1.3% to 503,143 from Q3 to Q4 2015, up from 496,904, while employment grew at a slightly higher rate during the same time period, growing 1.9% from 475,060 to 483,949. Employment in Region 9 is growing faster than labor force participation, which has remained nearly stagnant since mid-2013. The labor force reached over 500,000 earlier in 2015, which is a first since early 2009. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in November 2015, which is the lowest Prosperity Region 9 has seen throughout all of 2015. As employment has grown faster than the labor force, the drop in unemployment is due mostly to job gains.

SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

PROSPERITY REGION 9 DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 18,294 individuals in Prosperity Region 9. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Production workers maintained the top posting position in the fourth quarter of 2015 while production supervisors and inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers rounded out the top three. Production workers decreased by 45 postings (-22.3%) from the third quarter to the fourth, while production supervisors decreased by only 6 postings (-5.7%). The decrease in postings was anticipated as Q4 postings are historically lower thanQ3 each year. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are cutting, punching, and press machine operators, packaging and filling machine operators, and prepress technicians. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, mechanical engineering technicians, and structural metal fabricators and fitters. 16

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster dropped 138, -16.0%, from 860 in Q3 2015 to 722 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an upswing despite the recent drop. Postings in the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster made up 3.8% of the total postings (722 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015. Employment is also steadily increasing, highlighting the connection between online job ads and hiring in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Skilled Trade and Technician occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is estimated at 18,294 (2015). Skilled trades employment is up 3.0% (532 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Though employment in this cluster is still below the pre-recession level of 21,937 (2005), it is much higher than the recession trough of 13,851 (2009). Growth in this cluster is steady and the general trend is positive. This net employment gain is strong, with about six online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. On average, employers of skilled trade workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Prosperity Region 9.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Some occupations within advanced-manufacturing skilled trades offer upward mobility in wages, with several offering wages over $15 per hour to start, but the majority are closer to $10 per hour. Many occupations in this cluster offer wages over $15 per hour at the median, with some offering over $25 per hour. Wages for most skilled trades occupations in Prosperity Region 9 show that experience is required in order to earn a high wage. Wages for the skilled trades in southeast Michigan are modestly higher than the U.S. on average.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Skilled Trades cluster with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have a LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 5.85 times (485% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. Prepress technicians and workers (22% below the national average) along with packaging and filling machine operators (18% below the national average) are two of the in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. 20

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Many skilled trade occupations do not require a formal degree, but most employers want to see specialized training beyond a high school diploma. This is not always reflected in data on required education and training. Most skilled trade jobs require several years of on-the-job training. Several skilled trade occupations require a two-year associateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or training in a registered apprenticeship. For many occupations, the level of education required aligns with higher wages. Electronics and manufacturing production technicians are examples of this, as they require more training, pay a higher starting wage, and provide more opportunities for upward mobility. 22

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 10,514 employed individuals in Prosperity Region 9 during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Mechanical and electrical engineers once again top the list in this cluster. The top five in-demand occupations remained unchanged from Q3 to Q4 2015. Mechanical engineers declined by 20 postings (-10.6%) while electrical and industrial engineers remained steady. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are aerospace engineers, drafters, and validation engineers. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are engineering technicians, industrial safety and health engineers, and water/ wastewater engineers. 24

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Engineers and Design cluster dropped by exactly 100 postings, -10.9%, from 914 in Q3 2015 to 814 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite the recent drop, postings in this cluster have increased 53.0% (282 postings) over the past full year. Postings in the Engineers and Designers cluster made up 4.3% of the total postings (814 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015. Employment in the Engineers and Designers cluster is also steadily increasing as the demand continues to rise.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Engineering and Design occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is 10,514 (2015). Engineering and design employment is up 2.4% (242 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This is still below the pre-recession level of 10,862 (2005). Employment is much higher than the recession trough of 8,068 (2009). As of 2015, the Engineering and Design occupational employment cluster has nearly fully recovered from the recession with only 342 less workers than that of 2005. Growth in this cluster remains steady and the general trend is positive. This net employment gain is strong, with about 14 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. Engineering and design employers in Prosperity Region 9 may be experiencing difficulty finding qualified candidates as displayed by this higher posting intensity.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for engineers and designers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth among the occupations comprising the engineer and design cluster include aerospace engineers, electrical engineers, and mechanical engineers. Wages for engineers and designers in southeast Michigan are nearly equivalent to national averages in the same occupations.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Engineering and Design occupations with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Mechanical engineers have a LQ of 6.46, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 6.46 times (546% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are five in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Aerospace engineers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .31, 69% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 28

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand engineering and design occupation requires at least a two-year degree or apprenticeship for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. While work experience is not an explicit requirement for these occupations, in general, many employers require an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience before hiring an applicant. This is true even at the entry level. Many employers also prefer advanced degrees for engineers, especially mechanical, validation, and safety engineers. 30

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2015, IT occupational employment was 11,936 in Prosperity Region 9. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Software developers continue to dominate the top jobs list for this cluster, providing 30.0% of the total postings for Q4 2015 (606 of the 1,992 total postings). As expected, overall postings declined in Q4 when compared to Q3 2015. Software developers declined by 155 postings (-20.4%) while computer systems analysts declined by 44 postings (-18.7%). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly; data warehousing specialists and database architects are new to the top occupations, while computer information research scientists and computer and information systems managers no longer appear.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings decreased by 320 (-13.8%) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015 in the Information Technology cluster. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite this trend, postings in this cluster have increased 52.2% (683 postings) from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. Postings in the Information Technology cluster made up 10.5% of the total postings (1,992 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015. Employment in the Information Technology cluster is also steadily increasing as the demand continues to rise.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Information Technology occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is 11,936 (2015), growing 3.7% (428 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This exceeds the pre-recession level of 10,006 (2005) by 1,930 workers. Growth in this cluster has been trending upward since 2010. The net employment gain is steady, with about 20 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. Employers seeking information technology workers in Prosperity Region 9 are likely experiencing difficulty finding qualified candidates based upon the higher posting intensity.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for information technology workers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour and many start at over $25 per hour, which translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth across the career spectrum is experienced by IT managers, systems software developers, applications software developers, and database administrators. Wages for IT workers in southeast Michigan are below national averages for the same occupations indicating potential growth for pay in the future as workers are more indemand.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Information Technology occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Computer user support specialists have a LQ of 1.34, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.34 times (34% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Web developers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .72, 28% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 36

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand IT occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position, and most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. For select occupations, like database administrators and information security analysts, on-the-job training and work experience are essential for an entry-level position. This means that an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience is necessary.

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 49,061 employees in 2015 in Prosperity Region 9. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Registered nurses and nursing assistants continued to dominate the top two spots on the indemand occupation list in Q4 2015. Postings for registered nurses made up more than thirty percent of all Health Care postings from October to December 2015 (32.3%, 938 of 2,901 total health care postings). Despite a decline in postings throughout other occupation clusters, postings for registered nurses grew by 133, a 16.5% increase from Q3 to Q4 2015. Postings for medical assistants experienced a similar growth during Q4 (18 postings, 15.7%). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top in-demand jobs remained relatively steady. New to the top occupations are occupational therapists and speech-language pathologists. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are home health aides and radiologic technologists. 40

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Health Care cluster increased by 2.1% (61 postings) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year, however, 2015 saw a slight increase between the quarters in this particular cluster. Compared to Q4 2014, Q4 2015 Health Care cluster postings have increased by nearly 50% (49.4%, 959 postings). Postings in the Health Care cluster made up 15.3% of the total postings (2,901 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015. Employment in this cluster has been steadily increasing since 2001.

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Health Care occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is 49,061 (2015). Health care employment is up 1.1% (547 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This particular cluster did not experience a decline during the recession and has been trending upward since 2001. The net employment gain remains steady, with about 20 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job, the highest posting intensity of the clusters WIN studies in the region. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. Employers seeking health care workers in Prosperity Region 9 are likely experiencing difficulty finding qualified candidates based upon the higher posting intensity.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for health care workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at a wage well above $20 per hour, some of the more entry-level occupations start workers closer to $10 per hour. There is considerable wage growth with more education in this field. A worker experiences an exponential increase in wages when advancing from a medical assistant position to an RN or a physician. While some health care jobs are not high paying at the onset, they do offer upward mobility with experience. Wages for health care workers in the region are generally on par with national averages. For lower level occupations, nursing assistants, medical assistants, etc. wages are below national averages.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Health Care occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Physicians and surgeons have a LQ of 1.49, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.49 times (49% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .65, 35% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistently high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 44

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand health care fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees in nursing but there is a disconnect between the level of degree required for nursing and the level of degree graduates attain. Many individuals choose to complete a two-year degree in nursing to become an LPN. Most health systems and hospitals now require a higher share of their nursing staff to hold four-year degrees. Another top job in nursing, critical care nurses, requires even more specialized training than a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. This, and demand for other nursing specialists, is furthering the divide between employer demand and the supply of qualified workers.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Nearly every in-demand health care occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher. For select occupations, pharmacy technicians and health technicians, on-the-job training is important. Like many other clusters, wages increase with educational attainment, and health care is a field where education is transferable and stackable. Once a person gets a foot in the door, each new opportunity in education can utilize the learning and experience from a more entry-level position.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 113,648 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Prosperity Region 9.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Retail salespersons remained the top in-demand occupation in Q4 2015 while sales representatives remained in the second position. Together, retail salespersons and sales representatives made up 25.5% of all Retail and Hospitality postings (1,034 of 4,048 total retail and hospitality postings) in Q4 2015. Postings for retail salespersons declined by 117 postings (-16.0%) from Q3 to Q4 which was expected based on historical trends. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top in-demand jobs shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are food service managers and marketing managers. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are dishwashers and waiters/ waitresses.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster decreased by 391, -8.8%, from 4,439 in Q3 2015 to 4,048 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings have been lower than Q3 each year, so this drop is expected. Over the past year, online job postings in this cluster have increased by 32.6% from 3,052 postings in Q4 2014 to 4,048 postings in Q4 2015. Postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster made up 21.3% of the total postings (4,048 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015, making retail and hospitality occupations the most in-demand of the clusters analyzed in Prosperity Region 9. Retail and Hospitality employment continues to increase as it has done since 2009.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Retail and Hospitality occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is 113,648 (2015). Retail and hospitality employment is up 1.4% (1,525 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This exceeds the pre-recession level of 108,748 (2005) by 4,900 workers. Growth in this cluster has been trending upward since 2010. The net employment gain is steady, with about ten online job ads in 2015 for each net new job, which is on par with the overall employment gain in Prosperity Region 9. The retail and hospitality industry in this region is posting at exactly the average rate of postings per net new job (10 postings) indicating employers are able to find qualified candidates.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for retail and hospitality workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the more entry-level occupations start workers below $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in technical sales and management require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Retail and hospitality workers in southeast Michigan have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations, specifically sales representatives, making higher wages than the national average.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in certain Retail and Hospitality occupations with LQs greater than 1, being higher than the national average. Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives have a LQ of 1.19, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.19 times (19% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. However, many of the region’s most in-demand Retail and Hospitality occupations have LQs between 0.73 and 0.99, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 73% and 99% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Retail and Hospitality can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions due to a low concentration of workers.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require an advanced degree. Sales managers have a large number of graduates with related degrees because the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s educational programs graduate a large number of students with training in business management. For certain occupations where specialized training is essential, marketing managers, cooks, technical sales, etc., very few graduates exist to fill employer needs.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in retail and hospitality require a variety of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training.

AGRICULTURE WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agriculture cluster brings together occupations that require knowledge of the farming, livestock, the environment, and natural sciences. Occupations range from farm workers, to environmental engineers, to meat butchers, and recreation workers. In 2015, 31,804 individuals were employed in the agriculture cluster in Prosperity Region 9.

AGRICULTURE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products was the most indemand occupation yet again in the Agriculture cluster for Prosperity Region 9 in Q4 2015 with 92 postings. Postings for sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products made up 27.1% (92 of 340) of all Agriculture postings in Q4 2015. Postings for sales representatives in this cluster declined by 10 postings ( -9.8%) from Q3 to Q4 2015 which was expected based upon historical trends. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top in-demand jobs have shifted dramatically. This shift is not alarming considering the low number of postings overall in the agriculture cluster and can be attributed to employers filling their openings. New to the top occupations are agricultural technicians, biological science teachers (postsecondary), hazardous materials removal workers, occupational health and safety technicians, and veterinarians. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are farm and ranch managers, meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers, veterinary technologists and technicians, water and wastewater treatment plant and systems operators, and water/wastewater engineers.sy

AGRICULTURE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Agriculture cluster decreased by 11.0% (42 postings) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year, while postings tend to reach their yearly peak in quarter two or three each year in this cluster. These peaks are likely due to the seasonal nature of most agriculture postings. Overall, agriculture postings decreased in 2015 compared to 2014. Agriculture postings represent 1.8% of the total postings (340 of the 18,970 total postings) for Prosperity Region 9. Employment is steadily growing in Agriculture, which is on par with national employment trends.

AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Agriculture occupational employment cluster in Prosperity Region 9 is 31,804 (2015). Agriculture employment is up 1.7% (531 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Growth in this cluster has remained relatively flat over the past ten years with no major decline during the recession. The net employment gain is steady, with about three online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. which is on par with the overall employment gain in Prosperity Region 9. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of ten postings per net new job. On average, employers of agriculture workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Prosperity Region 9.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for agriculture workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the agriculture occupations offer a starting wage around $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in sales, engineering, and research require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Agriculture workers have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations making higher wages than the national average. 59

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in certain Agriculture occupations with LQs greater than 1, being higher than the national average. Environmental science and protection technicians have a LQ of 1.28, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.28 times (28% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. However, many of the region’s most in-demand Agriculture occupations have LQs between 0.49 and 0.94, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 49% and 94% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Agriculture can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions due to a low concentration of workers.

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

AGRICULTURE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in agriculture span a spectrum of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training. 62

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH