QUARTERLY REPORT THUMB AREA COUNTIES Q3 2015 HURON, LAPEER, SANILAC, TUSCOLA
SUMMARY THUMB AREA Q3 2015 DEMAND OVERVIEW The labor market expanded marginally during Q3 2015 in the thumb area with both employment and the labor force growing by less than one percentage point. The labor force increased by 648 individuals, 0.6% growth compared to Q2 this year. Employers added 712 more workers to their payroll increasing employment by 0.7% over Q2. Because employment grew by a larger margin than the labor force the unemployment rate dropped by a small margin, falling 0.1 percentage point from 6.5% in Q2 to 6.4% in Q3. While employment is on a steadily increasing trend, the labor force has stagnated. Typically the labor force peaks in Q2 and Q3 in the thumb area and during Q3 this year, the labor force peak is considerably lower than in the past two years. Employer demand continues to rise. Postings increased 9.9% in Q3 growing from 1,109 in Q2 2015 to 1,219 in Q3 2015. Posting levels are below the historical peaks seen in late 2014 and mid-2013. But, trends remain positive. Retail postings are driving all postings up as seasonal hiring for the holidays begins. The clusters analyzed by WIN in the thumb area represent 66% of all online job postings in the region. *This report includes top jobs and postings over time highlights for clusters that have made major shifts or
movements in the past quarter. The data is updated each quarter based on the clusters with the most noteworthy changes. For complete top jobs lists, educational attainment, and wage information, please see the regional reports or contact WIN's Research Director Colby Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.
TOP JOBS Q3 2015
ANALYSIS Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers was the top indemand job in the thumb area during Q3 2015 with 67 job postings. While this occupation retained the top postings for another quarter running, postings dropped 33.7% from 101 in Q2 215 to 67 in Q3. Demand for retail sales persons has increased, likely due to seasonal hiring needs, growing 85.7% in demand since Q2 2015 (65 postings in Q3 up from 35 in Q2 2015). Other top trending jobs in the thumb area are registered nurses (50 postings in Q3 down from 65 in Q2), and retail sales supervisors (54 postings in Q3 up from 24 in Q2 2015). 2
HIGHLIGHTS HEALTH CARE POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Health care postings represent 17.4% of all online job ads in the thumb area. Postings tend to fluctuate quarter to quarter in this cluster but have an increasing trend line. Since posting data has been collected (2011), health care online job ads have more than doubled. In Q3 2015, postings dropped slightly, falling 14.2% from the historic peak of 247 in Q2 2015 to 212 postings. While postings dropped, the trend is still positive indicating growing opportunities in the region.
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Retail and hospitality postings represent 26.7% of total online job ads in the thumb area, a clear frontrunner for worker demand. Postings have been falling for a year, since the historic high of 464 postings during Q3 2014. Q3 2015 marked the first increase in demand in a year. Postings grew 75.3% moving from 186 in Q2 to 326 in Q3 this year. Retail and hospitality postings tend to peak in Q3 each year, which follows a seasonal trend across the region.
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LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE
ANALYSIS The labor market expanded during Q3 2015 in the thumb area. Both employment and the labor force grew marginally, less than one percentage point. The labor force increased by 648 individuals, 0.6% growth compared to Q2 this year. Employers added 712 more workers to their payroll increasing employment by 0.7% over Q2. Because employment grew by a larger margin than the labor force the unemployment rate dropped by a small margin, falling 0.1 percentage point from 6.5% in Q2 to 6.4% in Q3.
TOTAL POSTINGS OVER TIME
ANALYSIS Total online job postings in the thumb area are on an upward trend again after a large drop between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. Postings increased 9.9% in Q3 growing from 1,109 in Q2 2015 to 1,219 in Q3 2015. Postings in the region do not follow a seasonal trend and peaks cannot be anticipated based on a traditional business cycle.
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POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER
ANALYSIS Overall postings increased in the thumb area between Q2 and Q3 2015 growing by 110 postings (9.9% growth). Postings grew by 12.7% for Skilled Trade workers adding ten postings between Q2 and Q3. Postings also grew considerably for retail and hospitality workers adding 140 online ads (75.3% growth) between Q2 and Q3 this year. TDL, representing 9.2% of total online ads in the area, fell 11.8%, losing 15 ads. Hopefully the posting loss is due to employment gains. Net posting gains can be 100% attributed to gains in Retail & Hospitality online ads. These were likely driven by seasonal needs. The clusters analyzed by WIN in the thumb area represent 66% of all online job postings in the region.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER SKILLED TRADE & TECHNICIAN TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Top jobs in the Skilled Trades shifted slightly in Q3 2015. Production workers, the former top position dropped to 2nd place with 18 postings, down from 23 in Q2. Demand increased for supervisors, growing to 23 postings in Q3 from 17 in Q2. No longer in the top ten jobs were plant system operators and CNC machinists. Replacing these in the top ten were cutting and slicing machine operators and coating/painting machine operators.
TDL TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Just over nine percent of online job ads in the thumb area were for TDL cluster jobs. Heavy and tractortrailer truck drivers were the most in-demand with 67 postings. While this job remained at the top of the list, postings fell about 33% from 101 postings in Q2 this year. Demand for materials movers almost doubled, increasing from 13 postings in Q2 to 24 in Q3. New to the top ten list were bus drivers, mine shuttle car operators, packagers, and ship and boat captains.
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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS HealthCare is traditionally a strong cluster in the thumb area, during Q3 it represented 17.4% of all online job ads. Top jobs do not tend to shift much quarter to quarter and Q3 2015 was no different. Registered nurses maintained the top posting position with 50 postings (down from 65 in Q2 this year). New to the top ten were medical records and health information techs, medical assistants, and medical and clinical tab techs. No longer in the top ten were nurse practitioners, health technologists, and physicians assistants. These positions were likely filled.
RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS
ANALYSIS Representing 26.7% of all job postings in the thumb area, Retail & Hospitality postings have a strong effect on total posting levels. Demand for the top job in this cluster, retail salespersons, nearly doubled in Q3 2015 growing from 35 postings in Q2 to 65 in Q3. Demand for sales representatives (wholesale and manufacturing non-technical) increased even more growing from 20 postings in Q2 to 55 in Q3 this year (175% growth). With holiday hiring starting, retail jobs are in high demand.
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