Wayne county q4 2015 report optimizedfinal by Workforce Intelligence Network

WORKFORCE INTELLIGENCE NETWORK

QUARTERLY REPORT 路 WAYNE COUNTY Q4 2015 & 2015 Annual Summary

CONTENTS Executive Summary Labor Market and Job Demand Overview Occupational Clusters Advanced Manufacturing: Skilled Trades & Technicians Advanced Manufacturing: Engineers & Designers Information Technology Health Care Retail & Hospitality

Data Notes and Sources

GEOGRAPHY

Southeast Michigan WIN region includes 9 counties: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and Wayne.* This report focuses on Wayne County.

Genesee

St. Clair

Shiawassee Oakland Macomb Livingston Washtenaw

Wayne

Monroe

* The original WIN partnership included the 9 counties in this report . The WIN partnership expanded to include 16 counties as of late 2015. Hillsdale, Huron, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties were added. While this report is still focused on the original 9-county labor shed, much of the analysis (wages, location quotients, recent gradutes, and educational attainment requirements), are shown in all reports for the new broader 16-county area. 3

SECTION ONE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The unemployment rate in Wayne County fell to 6.2% in November 2015. The labor force in Wayne County declined -0.6% to 755,185 from Q3 to Q4 2015, down from 759,881. Meanwhile, employment declined at a slightly slower rate during the same period, falling -0.1% from 703,016 to 702,563. Compared to one year ago (November 2014), the size of the labor force in Wayne County has fallen by 8,901 individuals. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in November 2015, which is slightly above the April 2015 rate of 5.9%.

Software developers are in high demand, however, employers throughout Wayne County are having a hard time finding qualified candidates to fill openings. Applications software developers continue to dominate the top jobs list for this cluster, providing 29.7% of the total IT postings for Q4 2015 (2,477 of the 8,350 total postings). Employment in the Information Technology occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 24,683 (2015), growing 1.3% (325 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Employment in this cluster is still below prerecession level of 27,845 (2005) by 3,162 workers. Employment in this cluster has been growing since 2010. There were about 100 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job (not including turnover). For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job. Employers seeking information technology workers in Wayne County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates as displayed by the high posting intensity and low employment gain.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Despite historical trends, online job ads have increased from Q3 to Q4 for the past two years in Wayne County. Online job ads increased by 311 (0.6%) from 51,966 in Q3 2015 to 52,277 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year, however, Wayne County postings have increased for the past two years in a row from Q3 to Q4 (2014 and 2015). In general, postings are on an increasing trend. Employment is also steadily increasing highlighting the connection between online job ads and hiring.

In Q4 2015, registered nurses topped the Wayne County in-demand job posting list for the Health Care cluster. Demand for registered nurses made up more than one-third of all Health Care postings from October to December 2015 (33.5%, 2,517 of the 7,509 total health care postings). Despite a decline in online ads throughout some of the other occupation clusters, postings for registered nurses grew by 249, an 11.0% increase from Q3 to Q4 2015.

Southeast Michigan employers offer highly competitive wages in both engineering and design and information technology occupations. Nearly all occupations within the engineering and design and information technology clusters have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually.

SECTION TWO LABOR MARKET AND DEMAND OVERVIEW

TOP 20 JOBS IN DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies During the fourth quarter of 2015, registered nurses, application software developers, and truck drivers maintained the top three posting positions. From Q3 to Q4 2015, registered nurses moved from the second position to the first while application software developers moved from first to second position. Postings for registered nurses increased by 249 postings (11.0%) from the third quarter to the fourth. During the same time period, postings for truck drivers increased by 5.0% (1,886 postings in Q3 and 1,981 postings in Q4). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014), the top in-demand jobs have shifted dramatically. Notable changes to the top twenty over the past year include the addition of business intelligence analysts (an increase of 470 postings, 148.3%) and maintenance and repair workers (an increase of 401 postings, 142.2%). No longer in the top twenty compared to one year ago are civil engineers, computer programmers, and computer user 7 support specialists.

EMPLOYER DEMAND OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2015

Online job ads increased by 311 (0.6%) from 51,966 in Q3 2015 to 52,277 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings drop compared to Q3 each year, however, Wayne County postings have increased for the past two years in a row from Q3 to Q4 (2014 and 2015). In general, postings are on an increasing trend. Employment is also steadily increasing highlighting the connection between online job ads and hiring.

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE

As of November 2015, 704,271 individuals were employed (both part-time and fulltime) in Wayne County. Employment grew throughout 2015 overall despite dips in Q1 and October 2015. Wayne County employment has been increasing steadily since the trough reached during the 2010-2011 recession. From 2014 to 2015, employment climbed 1.1%, adding 7,540 jobs during the year. The regional labor force, as of November 2015, comprised of 752,411 individuals. The fourth quarter average estimate of 755,185 individuals was 0.6% (4,696 individuals) lower than the Q3 2015 average of 759,881 individuals. The average labor force of 2015 was estimated below 2013 levels. 9

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW

EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE OVERVIEW The labor force in Wayne County declined -0.6% to 755,185 from Q3 to Q4 2015, down from 759,881. Meanwhile, employment declined at a slightly slower rate during the same period, falling -0.1% from 703,016 to 702,563. Compared to one year ago (November 2014), the size of the labor force in Wayne County has fallen by 8,901 individuals. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in November 2015, which is slightly above the April 2015 rate of 5.9%.

SECTION THREE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS

WAYNE COUNTY DEMAND OVERVIEW

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS WINâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s technicians/skilled trades category includes jobs related to advanced manufacturing. Southeast Michigan has more demand for skilled- trades labor, such as CNC machinists and welders, than almost anywhere else in the country. In 2015, skilled trades employment reached 31,244 individuals in Wayne County. NOTE: Skilled trades related to construction and repair are not included in this cluster, as the focus is on advanced manufacturing.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Production supervisors remained in the top posting position during the fourth quarter of 2015 while production workers, and inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers remained in the second and third positions. Postings for production supervisors increased by 29 postings (+9.7%) from the third quarter to the fourth, while demand for production workers declined by 25 postings (-12.6%). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are New to the top occupations are CNC programmers, cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders (metal and plastic), mechanical engineering technicians, and molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders (metal and plastic). No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are chemical equipment operators and tenders, metal workers and plastic workers, stone cutters and carvers (manufacturing).

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Skilled Trades & Technicians cluster dropped by 84 postings (-6.2%) from 1,353 in Q3 to 1,269 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year. In general, postings are on an upswing despite the recent drop. Postings in the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster made up only 2.4% of the total postings (1,269 of the 52,277 total postings) for Wayne County in Q4 2015. Employment is also steadily increasing, but has yet to reach pre-recession levels.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Skilled Trade and Technician occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 31,244 (2015). Skilled trades employment is up by 3.6% (1,084 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Though employment in this cluster is still below the pre-recession level of 36,503 (2005), it is higher than the recession trough of 23,999 (2009). Growth in this cluster is slow, but steady and the general trend is positive. The net employment gain has been steady over the past year with about five online job ads for each net new job (not including turnover). For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job in 2015. On average, employers of skilled trade workers do not post online with the same intensity as other employers in Wayne County and are likely to use other recruiting methods when looking for qualified candidates.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Most occupations within the Skilled Trades and Technicians cluster offer upward mobility in wages, with a few offering wages over $15 per hour to start, but the majority are closer to $10 per hour. Many occupations in this cluster offer wages over $15 per hour at the median, with some offering over $25 per hour. Wages for most skilled trades occupations in southeast Michigan show that experience is required in order to earn a high wage. Wages for the skilled trades in southeast Michigan are modestly higher than the U.S. on average. 19

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Skilled Trades cluster with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Tool and die makers have an LQ of 5.85, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 5.85 times (485% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. Welders, cutters, and welder fitters (3% above the national average) is an in-demand occupation in the region with room for growth. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistent high demand will likely attract workers to 20 the area and field.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SKILLED TRADES AND TECHNICIANS: TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Many skilled trade occupations do not require a formal degree, but most employers want to see specialized training beyond a high school diploma. This is not always reflected in data on required education and training. Most skilled trade jobs require several years of on-the-job training. Several skilled trade occupations require a two-year associateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or training in a registered apprenticeship. For many occupations, the level of education required aligns with higher wages. Tool and die makers and production supervisors are examples of this, as they require more training, pay a higher starting 22 wage, and provide more opportunities for upward mobility.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS Jobs in the manufacturing industry can range from assembly and production, to skilled trades and technicians, designers and engineers, and even computer-related occupations such as software development. This section focuses on engineers & designers, which represent 28,841 employed individuals in Wayne County during 2015. Demand for engineers in the region has been consistent, and employment has been growing quickly.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies

Mechanical engineers once again top the list in this cluster. Mechanical engineers declined by 23 postings (-3.1%) while electrical engineers increased by 75 postings (up 13.2% from Q3 2015). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are automotive engineers and drafters. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are computer hardware engineers and validation engineers.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job ads in the Engineers and Design cluster dropped by 152 postings, -4.0%, from 3,808 in Q3 2015 to 3,656 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite the recent drop, postings in this cluster have increased 80.0% (1,625 postings) over the past full year. Postings in the Engineers and Designers cluster made up 7.0% of the total postings (3,656 of the 52,277 total postings) for Wayne County in Q4 2015. Employment in the Engineers and Designers cluster has steadily increased since 2009 and has exceeded pre-recession levels.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS: EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Engineering and Design occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 28,841 (2015). Engineering and design employment is up 3.2% (890 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Employment in 2015 exceeded the recession trough of 22,242 by 29.7% but remained 3.0% less than the prerecession level (29,718 workers in 2005). Growth in this cluster has been growing since 2009. There were about 15 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job in 2015 (not including turnover). For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job in 2015.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for engineers and designers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour, and many start at over $25 per hour. This translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth among the occupations comprising the engineer and design cluster include materials engineers, manufacturing engineers, electrical engineers, and mechanical engineers. Wages for engineers and designers in southeast Michigan are nearly equivalent to national averages in the same occupations. 27

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a competitive edge in the Engineering and Design occupations with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Mechanical engineers and automotive engineers both have an LQ of 6.46, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 6.46 times (546% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Chemical engineers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .56, 44% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistent high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 28

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in engineering and design fields were most prevalent in mechanical, automotive, and electrical engineering. Fewer graduates completed training as civil and chemical engineers. With hiring at its current strong rate and employer demand remaining high, the current supply of new engineers does not meet demand. More trained workers are needed to fill open positions.

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERS AND DESIGNERS : TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand engineering and design occupation requires at least a two-year degree or apprenticeship for an entrylevel position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. While work experience is not an explicit requirement for these occupations, in general, many employers require an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience before hiring an applicant. This is true even at the entry level. Many employers also prefer advanced degrees for engineers, especially mechanical engineers.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Information technology jobs include occupations that are associated with entry level, technical, and professional careers related to the design, development, support and management of hardware, software, multimedia, and systems integration services. While the information technology cluster does not currently meet the employment levels of the other clusters, it is quickly growing. In 2015, IT occupational employment was 24,683 in Wayne County. Top jobs in this cluster include computer support specialists, computer systems analysts, and software developers for applications.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Applications software developers continue to dominate the top jobs list for this cluster, providing 29.7% of the total IT postings for Q4 2015 (2,477 of the 8,350 total postings). As expected, overall postings declined in Q4 when compared to Q3 2015. Applications software developers declined by 124 postings (-4.8%) while computer systems analysts declined by 153 postings (-15.0%). Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top jobs have shifted slightly. New to the list in Q4 2015 compared to Q4 2014 is the need for data warehousing specialists. No longer appearing in the top occupations compared to one year ago are computer and information systems managers.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings decreased by 558 (-6.3%) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015 in the Information Technology cluster. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 postings each year. Despite this trend, postings in this cluster have increased 67.0% (3,351 postings) from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. Postings in the Information Technology cluster made up 16.0% of the total postings (8,350 of the 52,277 total postings) for Wayne County in Q4 2015. Employment in the Information Technology cluster has steadily increased since 2009, but has not yet reached prerecession levels.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Information Technology occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 24,683 (2015), growing 1.3% (325 workers) from 2014 to 2015. Employment in this cluster is still below pre-recession level of 27,845 (2005) by 3,162 workers. Employment in this cluster has been growing since 2010. There were about 100 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job (not including turnover). For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job. Employers seeking information technology workers in Wayne County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates as displayed by the high posting intensity and low employment gain.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for information technology workers are highly competitive. Nearly all occupations have starting wages over $20 per hour and a few start at over $25 per hour, which translates to a starting salary of $41,600 to $52,000 annually. The strongest wage growth across the career spectrum is experienced by systems software developers, applications software developers, computer systems analysts, and database administrators. Wages for IT workers in southeast Michigan are below national averages for the same occupations indicating potential growth for pay in the future as workers are more in-demand.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Information Technology occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Computer user support specialists have an LQ of 1.34, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.34 times (34% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are four in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Web developers offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .72, 28% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistent high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 36

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand IT fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees related to web development and information security. The top posting position, application software developers, had only 977 regional related grads, which is not nearly enough to meet the demand throughout southeast Michigan.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Every in-demand IT occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position, and most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. For select occupations, like database administrators, on-the-job training and work experience are essential for an entry-level position. This means that an internship, co-op, apprenticeship, or other workplace learning experience is necessary.

HEALTH CARE WIN’s health care occupation cluster includes jobs related to health care support and practitioners. This cluster is one of Southeast Michigan’s largest with, 77,857 employees in 2015 in Wayne County. Employment in this cluster has been consistently growing, more health care workers needed to care for Michigan’s aging population and in response to regulatory and other changes. Registered nurses are routinely the most in-demand job in this cluster.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Registered nurses and nursing assistants continued to dominate the top two spots on the indemand occupation list in Q4 2015. Demand for registered nurses made up more than one-third of all Health Care postings from October to December 2015 (33.5%, 2,517 of the 7,509 total health care postings). Despite a decline in online ads throughout some of the other occupation clusters, postings for registered nurses grew by 249, an 11.0% increase from Q3 to Q4 2015. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top in-demand jobs have shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are speech-language pathologists. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses.

HEALTH CARE ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Online job postings in the Health Care cluster increased by 15.5% (1,006 postings) from Q3 2015 to Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings are lower than Q3 each year, however, there was an increase between the quarters in this particular cluster during 2014 and 2015. Compared to Q4 2014, Q4 2015 Health Care cluster postings have increased by 70.7% (3,111 postings). Postings in the Health Care cluster made up 14.4% of the total postings (7,509 of the 52,277 total postings) for Wayne County in Q4 2015. Employment in this cluster has steadily increased since 2005.

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Health Care occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 77,857 (2015). Health care employment is up 2.2% (1,702 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This particular cluster did not experience a decline during the recession and has experienced slow growth since 2005. The net employment gain remains steady, with about 15 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job (not including turnover). For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at a wage well above $20 per hour, some of the more entry-level occupations start workers closer to $10 per hour. There is considerable wage growth with more education in this field. A worker experiences an exponential increase in wages when advancing from a medical assistant position to an RN or a physician. While some health care jobs are not high paying at the onset, they do offer upward mobility with experience. Wages for health care workers in the region are generally on par with national averages. For lower level occupations, nursing assistants, medical assistants, etc. wages are below national averages. 43

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in several Health Care occupations, with many of the top in-demand jobs at a higher concentration of workers than the rest of the nation. Physicians and surgeons have an LQ of 1.49, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.49 times (49% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. There are three in-demand occupations in the region with room for growth. Medical records and health information technicians offer the most potential for growth as the LQ is .71, 29% below the national average. A lower LQ means that employers might struggle to fill positions, but consistent high demand will likely attract workers to the area and field. 44

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. In 2014, graduates with certificates and degrees in many in-demand health care fields were insufficient to meet demand. The most graduates available have degrees in nursing but there is a disconnect between the level of degree required for nursing and the level of degree graduates attain. Many individuals choose to complete a two-year degree in nursing to become an LPN. Most health systems and hospitals now require a higher share of their nursing staff to hold four-year degrees. This, and demand for other nursing specialists, is furthering the divide between employer demand and the supply of qualified workers.

HEALTH CARE TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Nearly every in-demand health care occupation requires post-secondary training for an entry-level position. Most require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher. For select occupations like pharmacy technicians, onthe-job training is important. Like many other clusters, wages increase with educational attainment, and health care is a field where education is transferable and stackable. Once a person gets a foot in the door, each new opportunity in education can utilize the learning and experience from a more entry-level position.

RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY The retail and hospitality cluster is the largest occupational cluster that WIN analyzes, both in terms of employment and online job postings. This cluster is of very high importance to the region because it is the first to grow when the economy expands and the first to contract in a downturn: It is often a leading indicator. As defined by WIN, the retail and hospitality cluster encompasses all customer service occupations, with skills transferrable across the retail sector, the hotel industry, food and beverage service industry, call centers, and other areas. In 2015, 196,405 individuals were employed in retail and hospitality related occupations in Wayne County.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

* Data : Burning Glass Technologies Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives (except technical and scientific) remained the top in-demand occupation in Q4 2015 while retail salespersons remained in the second position. Postings for wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives and retail salespersons made up nearly 30.0% of all retail and hospitality postings (26.9%, 2,582 of 9,604 total retail and hospitality postings) in Q4 2015. Demand for wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives increased by 21.8% (264 postings) from Q3 to Q4 2015. Compared to one year ago (Q4 2014) the top indemand jobs shifted slightly. New to the top occupations are food service managers and waiters/ waitresses. No longer in the top occupations compared to one year ago are non-retail sales worker supervisors and sales floor stock clerks. 48

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY ONLINE JOB POSTINGS OVER TIME

Overall, online job postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster increased by 489(+5.4%) from 9,115 in Q3 2015 to 9,604 in Q4 2015. Historically, Q4 postings have been lower than Q3 each year with the exception of 2014 and 2015. Over the past year, online job postings in this cluster have increased by 37.9% from 6,962 postings in Q4 2014 to 9,604 postings in Q4 2015. Postings in the Retail and Hospitality cluster made up 18.4% of the total postings (9,604 of the 52,277 total postings) for Wayne County in Q4 2015. Retail and Hospitality employment has increased since 2009 and has remained relatively flat since 2011.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT OVER TIME

Employment in the Retail and Hospitality occupational employment cluster in Wayne County is estimated at 196,405 (2015). Retail and hospitality employment is up 0.9% (1,727 workers) from 2014 to 2015. This is below the pre-recession level of 216,350 (2005) by 19,945 workers, but higher than the recession trough of 190,722 (2010). Growth in this cluster has been trending upward since 2010. The net employment gain is steady, with about 19 online job ads in 2015 for each net new job. For the entire region across all occupational clusters, there were an average of 25 postings per net new job. The retail and hospitality industry in Wayne County is posting at a high rate, but not quite as high as the average posting intensity for all clusters. A high posting intensity indicates that retail and hospitality employers in Wayne County are likely having a hard time finding qualified candidates.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS WAGES

Wages for retail and hospitality workers are not consistent from occupation to occupation. While some jobs start workers (10th percentile) at wages above $20 per hour, many of the more entry-level occupations start workers below $10 per hour. Most wage growth in these fields can be had with experience and training. Jobs in technical sales and management require more education and experience, thus these jobs pay considerably more. Retail and hospitality workers in southeast Michigan have similar wage levels to workers nationally with some occupations, specifically sales representatives, making higher wages than the national average. 51

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS LOCATION QUOTIENT

The location quotient (LQ) is a measure of relative concentration. In this case, it measures the relative concentration of workers in an occupation in a specific geography compared to the U.S. on average. Higher LQ’s typically indicate that employers will have an easier time finding talent because those workers are more concentrated in the area; lower LQ’s will make filling open positions more difficult. The greater southeast Michigan region has a slight competitive edge in certain Retail and Hospitality occupations with LQs greater than 1, being higher than the national average. Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives have an LQ of 1.19, meaning that the concentration of these workers in this region is 1.19 times (19% higher than) that of the rest of the U.S. on average. However, many of the region’s most indemand Retail and Hospitality occupations have LQs between 0.73 and 0.99, meaning that regional employment in these occupations is only between 85% and 99% of national average employment. Because of increased demand for these occupations, employment in Retail and Hospitality can be expected to grow but employers may not be able to fill positions easily due to a low concentration of 52 workers.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS RECENT REGIONAL GRADUATES

Due to the regional nature of the labor force in southeast Michigan, data is shown for degree and certificate completions awarded by colleges and universities from all 16-counties in the WIN partnership. Most retail and hospitality jobs do not require an advanced degree. Sales managers have a large number of graduates with related degrees because the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s educational programs graduate a large number of students with training in business management. For certain occupations where specialized training is essential, marketing managers, cooks, technical sales, etc., very few graduates exist to fill employer needs.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP 15 JOBS EDUCATION & TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Like wages, educational attainment requirements in retail and hospitality require a variety of credentials. Many entry-level occupations require only a high school diploma and on-the-job training while other occupations require a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree. Wages follow education in this cluster with the most competitive wages and upward mobility found in jobs that require the most higher education and training.

SECTION FOUR DATA NOTES AND SOURCES

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES SPECIAL DATA NOTE • Due to changes in Burning Glass’s aggregation, parsing, and deduplication methods implemented in December 2014, data from previously released reports should not be compared to data in reports starting in Q4 2014 and moving forward. For the Q4 2014 report, the WIN team re-gathered and analyzed all of the data (postings from 2011 through 2014) to ensure that all numbers are up-to-date. If you would like information on the differences between the updated data and data from previous reports, please contact WIN's Research Director Colby Spencer Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org. • Wage, location quotient, completion, and education requirement data is shown for the 16 county region that is part of the WIN partnership. • All numbers included in this report are the correct and updated data. • Wage and educational attainment data available varies depending on the occupation. All wage and educational attainment data provided is for the 6digit SOC code. Some 6-digit codes do not have education or wage data available, in this case we leave the information blank. • Educational attainment data available refers to the share of the current workforce in each bracket, not what is shown in postings. Employers may require different educational attainment than what is in this report. • Quarterly reports: Due to a data update in Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight tool, comparisons should not be made between data from each quarterly report and the annual review data should not be compared to data from previous quarterly reports. • Adjustments to the labor force information were also made to reflect and incorporate updated inputs, re-estimation, and controlling to new statewide totals. Much of the information related to monthly and quarterly employment is updated several months after the initial release. More information can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1. htm • This report uses $15 as a "living wage" estimate. Any job paying more than this is considered to pay at least a living wage. Below $15 is less than a living wage. This definition is based on a median household income in Michigan which is close to $50,000 per year. If we assume that most homes have two income earners and both earn at least $15 per hour, then that household's anual income would be at least $62,000 putting these jobs above the median.

DATA NOTES AND SOURCES UNDERSTANDING DEMAND VS EMPLOYMENT • Employment refers to actual employment numbers—the number of people in jobs—in targeted industries or occupations. • Demand refers to statistics derived from employer job postings, which indicate the potential for employment but may or may not materialize into actual jobs. • Job posting-related demand, as presented in this report, is measured by online job postings. Employer demand may be larger than what is highlighted in this report if employers find talent by other means.

DATA SOURCES • Labor market demand data for this report was compiled using Burning Glass Technologies’ Labor Insight Tool, and analyzed by the Workforce Intelligence Network. Other data sources include, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). Check out our website http://www.winsemich.org for more data and detailed information about our sources.

UNDERSTANDING CLUSTERS • Rather than focusing on talent demand within industries (types of firms), WIN generally emphasizes exploring talent demand based on occupations, including the skills, educational credentials, and experience needed to work in them. • WIN research examines industry data, as the health of companies can be useful for economic development purposes. However, shifting focus from industry to occupation is important as different types of occupations with extremely different skillsets may work within and across industries. For example, accountants, computer specialists, and engineers all may work in the manufacturing industry. • By clustering occupations, the talent system can identify employer demand for particular skillsets across multiple industry types and develop a response through training and pipeline development to meet that demand.

BOARD ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESEARCH AND DATA, VISIT OUR WEBSITE: WWW.WIN-SEMICH.ORG/DATA-RESEARCH