GAS TURBINES MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 2023-27THE LATEST 5-YEAR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Last year - 2022 - was a good year for gas turbine sales, with an increase in both units ordered as well as a significant increase in MWs sold, with a large number of “jumbo” unit sales driving the increase in overall MWs.

This was the conclusion reached by Gas Turbine World (gasturbineworld.com/market-forecast).

According to its analysts, price increases, driven by higher costs, will push new unit sales above $69 billion over the next 5 years.

In 2020, gas turbines sized 150MW or greater dominated order activity with units sized 300MWs or more increasingly taking a larger share of the market.

This trend reversed in 2021, with units ranging from 30MW to 100MW seeing increased support as backup for renewable power.

This monentum continued in 2022, with growth in sales of aeroderivative gas turbines. At the smaller MW end of the market, gas turbines sized 10MW or less have seen their market share decrease, and we anticipate this trend to continue.

The market for small gas turbines under 5MW has almost disappeared due to inroads by reciprocating engines. In 2022, Mitsubishi Power became the overall market leader for the first time in terms of MWs sold.

Key market drivers in gas turbines

Markets are now seeing impacts from the war and crisis in Ukraine, with lower demand for Russian natural gas causing a shift from new pipeline gas turbines to regions like North America, says the analysts from Gas Turbine World.

The analysts say: “Looking ahead, we anticipate coal retirements in North America, Germany and China will mainly benefit from large Heavy Frame gas turbines.

“The aero gas turbine market for equipment which provides backup capacity for renewable energy, will benefit from higher demand and steady pricing.

“In the Oil & Gas Sector: despite a significant decline in activity, the most notable trend is a large drop in units sized 1-5MW and 20-30MW. In the Electric Power Utility Sector: units in the 30-40MW range are up and sales of 300MW+ units have rocketed.”

Allied Market Research (www.alliedmarketresearch. com) has produced its own recent economic report: Called “Gas Turbine Market Opportunities - 20232030”. According to its investigators the global gas turbine market was valued at US$18.5 billion in 2020, and will reach US$25.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 3.3% from 2023 to 2030.

AN INCREASE IN DISTRIBUTED POWER GENERATION AND THE REPLACEMENT OF PHASED OUT NUCLEAR & COAL PLANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS TURBINE SALES.

One AMR analyst comments: “Gas turbine is a mechanical device, which harnesses energy from working fluid or gas by utilising its kinetic energy or potential energy.

“These turbines run on the Brayton Cycle principle. The Brayton Cycle is a thermodynamic cycle which describes the operation of certain heat engines that have air or some other gas as their working fluid., The term applies to systems equipped with a heater, compressor, turbine, and cooler. The working fluid undergoes thermodynamic process where the system converts mechanical/heat energy into rotating energy, which, in turn, produces the electricity as output.”

The analyst continues: “The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak across the globe resulted in a decline in demand for power from industrial and commercial end-users owing to halted production and manufacturing activities amid government imposed lock down measures.

“Due to this the demand for gas turbines is expected decline during the forecast period 2023-2030.”

The growth of the global gas turbine market is apparently being driven by rapid technological advancements in the energy sector coupled with increase in focus toward distributed power generation technologies.

The gas turbine market is expected to grow significantly between now and 2030 on account of rise in government support across the world for power generation technologies which aim to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

According to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, natural gas was the largest source of electricity generation in the U.S. in 2020. It was also the second largest source of electricity generation across the globe, occupying a 40.5% share in sources of the US power generation and 23.4% share in sources of the global power generation.

The major factor driving the growth of the market - it is suggested - is the paradigm shift from coal-based power generation to gas-based power generation of developed and developing countries such as the US, Japan, China, and India.

All these nations support government policies for setting up gas-based power plants.

In addition, assured long-term fuel supply across various oil producing companies across the globe is one of the key factors enhancing the growth of the gas turbine market.

Gas turbines play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Compared to other combustion-based electricity generation applications, these are efficient and also result in decreasing carbon emissions - which are two especially positive factors.

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