Newsletter ~ December 2019 by Woodwell Climate Research Center

MONTHLY NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2019

Woods Hole Research Center A dire warning on thawing permafrost Dr. Philip B. Duffy President & Executive Director In its annual Arctic Report Card—a status report on the rapid unravelling happening at the top of the world—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week announced that it believes that arctic ecosystems, including thawing permafrost, are now emitting between 1.1 and 2.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide each year to the atmosphere. That is equivalent to 3 - 6% of direct human emissions (i.e. emissions from fossil fuel burning, deforestation, etc.) This is an ominous development, although as I describe below, not unexpected. Why ominous? Greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost add to global warming, and unlike emissions from fossil fuel use, which theoretically are controllable, there is no way to stop emissions from permafrost. And the warmer it gets, the greater the emissions, the greater the warming, and so on: uncontrollable warming. Today’s news means that the self-reinforcing cycle we’ve feared for decades seems to be happening. It’s not clear how much of the emissions from Arctic ecosystem are from thawing permafrost, because there’s a lot going on in the arctic and it is difficult to isolate emissions from specific sources. That does not provide comfort though, because most likely what’s going on is that relatively large emissions from thawing permafrost are partially offset by greening of vegetation (which absorbs carbon). As warming continues the “source” of carbon from permafrost can get much bigger than it is now, and the “sink” of carbon into plants won’t be able to grow as much. So the two may significantly offset one another now, but in the long run thawing permafrost will “win”—and all of us will lose. Even if these emissions don’t grow any larger, this means that in order to stabilize climate we will need to not only stop all human emissions of greenhouse gases

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WHRC scientists push for inclusion of natural systems at COP25 by Dave McGlinchey WHRC researchers took part in more than ten side events, panels, and scientific talks at the COP25 UN climate change conference in Madrid this month—all designed to encourage policy makers to consider the role of natural systems in climate change.

Several of the talks, and two officials side events, focused on the role of the Amazon in climate change mitigation. The Amazon forest includes an amount of carbon equivalent to ten years of global greenhouse gas emissions. WHRC research has shown that the areas of the Amazon with the most aboveground forest carbon are protected natural areas or are controlled by indigenous groups. Dr. Marcia Macedo led three events at the Brazil Climate Action Hub, an official pavilion that was established by IPAM Amazonia and partners, after the Brazilan government declined to establish its own pavilion.

“The Amazon is critically important for maintaining climate stability and indigenous communities are critically important for maintaining the Amazon,” Macedo said, summarizing the message of one of her events.

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WHRC is an independent research organization where scientists study climate change and how to solve it, from the Amazon to the Arctic. Learn more at www.whrc.org.

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but also remove from the atmosphere 1-2 billion tonnes of CO2 every year, and hide it somewhere. And we’ll need to do that forever unless we figure out some way to cool the earth, or at least to cool the Arctic. And of course permafrost emissions will grow larger, because we insist on continuing to burn fossil fuels and cut down our forests.

The WHRC delegation included Macedo, Dr. Sue Natali, Dr. Wayne Walker, and research assistant Darcy Peter.

As I digest this news I was moved to review George Woodwell’s 1986 testimony to the US Senate, in which he predicted that arctic permafrost would eventually start to thaw and emit greenhouse gases. Once again I am amazed at the insight of WHRC’s founder, although this is one case where I wish that George had been wrong! While I am touting WHRC, I should add that NOAA’s estimate of permafrost emissions is very closely based upon work by a team from WHRC led by Sue Natali and including Jenny Watts, Brendan Rogers, Stefano Potter, Leah Birch, and Sarah Ludwig. So, this may signal an ominous turning point in the progression of climate change, but I am proud to say that George predicted it and Sue and others here measured it! What should we do in light of this news? Science tells us that we control our destiny. The more we do now to stop human carbon emissions, the less will come out of permafrost, and the more time we have to develop and implement solutions, and to prepare for what is coming. Our work at WHRC is central to all of that. Sue Natali and her colleagues here are working to come up with better estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from arctic permafrost, and working with John Holdren and colleagues at Harvard, to include those estimates in global climate policy discussions. (To date permafrost has largely been ignored.) Our work on “natural climate solutions” is all about understanding how much carbon we can deliberately move from the atmosphere into natural reservoirs like forests, soils, and wetlands. This will have to be at least part of the antidote to emissions from thawing permafrost. Our work in the tropics focuses on keeping forest carbon out of the atmosphere. Finally, our new work on physical climate risk both motivates action to prevent future climate change and informs actions to cope with it. I can’t think of a better agenda to inform and motivate the policies we need today. Thanks as always for your interest and support.

Walker spoke at two official side events about new research on the climate mitigation value of protected areas and indigenous control areas.

“As of 2016, 58 percent of carbon stored aboveground in Amazon forests was found in Indigenous Territories and Protected Natural Areas,” Walker said during a side event that included IPAM Amazonia and was co-hosted by indigenous activist group COICA.

Natali led a day of events in the Cryosphere Pavilion, dubbed Permafrost Day. Natali designed the program and the messaging for the day-long series of talks, in conjunction with Dr. Gustaf Hugelius from Stockholm University and Pam Pearson from the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. Several speakers called attention to the fact that emissions from permafrost regions were not being incorporated into most global climate models. Natali presented a paper by herself and WHRC’s Dr. Jennifer Watts that showed previously unmeasured winter emissions are tipping the region into a net source of carbon.

Peter spoke about her perspective as an Alaska Native and a climate change scientist, detailing the experience of local communities that are living with permafrost thaw.

left: Dr. Sue Natali at the Cryosphere Pavilion right: Dr. Marcia Macedo at the Brazil Climate Action Hub WHRC Board Chair Bill Moomaw joined climate strike activist and Time 2019 Person of the Year Greta Thunberg on a panel at a COP25 event called "Unite Behind the Science" on December 10.

“Sobering, Inspiring, Frightening, and Educational.” WHRC scientist talks about COP25 WHRC’s Dr. Wayne Walker attended the COP25 United Nations climate change meetings in Madrid this month, with an eye toward highlighting the climate mitigation value of tropical forests. His particular focus was on the aboveground forest carbon stored in indigenous territories and protected natural areas of the Amazon. Dr. Walker spoke at two official side events, alongside WHRC’s long-standing partners IPAM, COICA, and, FAN Bolivia. What event was most important for you at COP25?

ability to map and monitor these difficultto-detect phenomenon, and a number of new studies are shining much-needed light on the problem. Unfortunately, this progress comes at a time when deforestation is on the rise across the Amazon and elsewhere. Hence, while our ability to track forest carbon emissions is increasingly comprehensive, the research is revealing a source of carbon to the atmosphere that is considerably larger than previously appreciated.

The COICA/WHRC co-hosted official UNFCCC Side Event titled, "Contribution of Amazon Indigenous People to Climate Protection." The event was an opportunity to preview new WHRC research (expected out soon) focused on the role that Amazon indigenous territories and protected natural areas—and the people living within them—have played in maintaining forest carbon intact in the face of pressures from deforestation, forest degradation, and natural disturbance. From your perspective, what made this year’s COP unique?

The long-neglected processes of forest degradation and disturbance are receiving the level of attention they deserve where their contributions to forest carbon emissions are concerned. Improvements in tools and techniques have enhanced our

12,000 years of human land use have produced the degraded soil carbon states of America. This map displays soil carbon loss based on data by WHRC's Dr. Jon Sanderman. Darker colors indicate greater soil carbon loss. Map by WHRC's Greg Fiske.

Dr. Wayne Walker, second from left.

Why is COP an important event? Despite the slow pace of international climate negotiations, this annual event remains the largest “meeting of the minds” on climate change, spanning the broad range of stakeholders and interests. Any given day can be at the same time sobering, inspiring, frightening, and educational. Overall, it continues to be an excellent opportunity to gain key insights on how WHRC's science can be best applied for maximum impact on the climate crisis.

Study: Protecting Amazon delivers bigger economic benefits than deforestation by Miles Grant A new study published by a team of WHRC and IPAM Amazônia scientists shows Brazil could achieve its economic goals and protect the Amazon by realigning incentives to enhance both forest conservation and agricultural production on existing farms.

The paper was published in the journal Land Use Policy just days after Brazil announced Amazon deforestation has reached its highest level in a decade. The study examined economic output to 2030, comparing a business-as-usual trajectory against one with much stronger conservation measures. Researchers recommend four key policy changes:

• Eliminate land grabbing and land speculation through designation of public forests. • Reduce legal deforestation on private properties through payments for ecosystem services. • Incentivize increased productivity on

medium and large properties through targeted investments. • Foster economic, environmental and social improvements through technical assistance to small farmers.

“WHRC and IPAM Amazônia have spent decades working with farmers, small land holders, and other stakeholders to understand what they need to improve their wellbeing, increase their production, and protect their forest. Pitting agricultural growth and forest protection against one another might be a popular political strategy, but this study shows it is not a beneficial economic one. The policies we’re recommending are both affordable and achievable and would help Brazil’s economy avoid the massive international pressure that’s come with this year’s wave of deforestation,” said Dr. Michael Coe, WHRC Tropics Program Director and a coauthor of the study.

This year, Brazil announced 9,760 square kilometers were deforested, an area two-

thirds the size of Connecticut. The Amazon has lost over 800,000 square kilometers of forest over the past 50 years, much of it to clear land for cattle pasture and crop production. As the global climate crisis causes the region to become warmer and drier, remaining forests face increasing stress from extreme events such as droughts and wildfires. “Conserving Amazon forests is a key part of the solution to climate change. When intact, these forests soak up and store excess carbon. The increase in deforestation this year clearly shows that we are moving in the wrong direction,” noted Dr. Marcia Macedo, WHRC Water Program Director and a co-author of the study. “But by aligning science with strategic policy interventions, we can predict the potentially ruinous climate and economic impacts of continuing deforestation, clearly illustrate these findings for key decision makers, and help develop effective solutions.”

The biggest climate news of 2019 by Miles Grant

As 2019 winds down, here’s a look back at some of the biggest climate stories of the year. 2019 joins hottest years on record NOAA gives 2019 an 85% chance of going down as the second hottest year, meaning the last six years will be the six hottest on record. It’s also been the wettest in U.S. history. Trump withdraws from Paris Agreement

The US pullout from the landmark global accord will become official November 4, 2020, one day after the next presidential election. “This is not just bad policy; it is a deliberate poke in the eye to young people and future generations,” said WHRC President Dr. Phil Duffy. Amazon fires hit 10-year high

Fires raged in Alaska, California, Australia and other places this year, but it was Amazon that most caught the world’s eye. WHRC and IPAM Amazônia scientists estimated that, through August 14, Brazilian Amazon fires emitted 104 to 141 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to annual tailpipe carbon pollution from 23 to 31 million cars. Rising awareness of financial threats

The California fires highlighted the financial risks of global warming, as the state battled with insurers over dropped home policies. In addition to an existing partnership with Wellington Management, WHRC in 2019 announced a new agreement with McKinsey & Company to assess how climate change threatens financial markets. Youth climate activism surges

Led by Time Person of the Year Greta Thunberg, climate strikes spread around the world. Youth activists with the Sunrise Movement helped launch the Green New Deal, sparking new conversation about what climate legislation should look like.

Slowing storms lead to record rain Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas as a category 5 in September, then stalled directly over the islands, leading to the worst disaster in the country’s history. Weeks later, Tropical Storm Imelda parked over southeast Texas, leading to record-breaking rainfall. The rapid intensification, immense rainfall, and stalling patterns all bear the fingerprints of climate change, according to WHRC scientist Jennifer Francis. Reforestation paper sparks debate

A study released in July called planting billions of trees across the world one of the biggest and cheapest ways of taking CO2 out of the atmosphere to tackle the climate crisis. But the research ignited blowback from other scientists who warned no amount of tree planting can save us if we don’t stop burning fossil fuels. Permafrost peril

NOAA’s 2019 Arctic Report Card warned permafrost, carbon-rich frozen soil that covers 24% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land mass, may already be a source of carbon emissions. An October study from WHRC scientists Sue Natali and Jennifer Watts detailed how winter carbon emissions from the Arctic may now be putting more carbon into the atmosphere than is taken up by plants each year. Record floods

Floods inundated Nebraska’s Offutt Air Force Base in March, with communities and cropland along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers facing floods all spring long. In Italy, the worst flooding in 50 years left Venice under six feet of water. “Those are the effects of climate change,” Mayor Luigi Brugnaro tweeted. Climate solutions, both high and low tech

Heliogen, a startup funded in part by Bill Gates, announced a breakthrough in concentrated solar technology that could cut industrial carbon emissions. And a March WHRC study showed tapirs can play a critical role in forest recovery by dispersing the large‐seeded species that eventually become large trees.

The biggest climate news of 2019 by Emily Marshall

Billions of people from around the world turn to social media each day for interpersonal connection, news, and creative expression. By maintaining an active social presence, and generating quality, timely content, WHRC is building a digital community of brand ambassadors who are eager to learn about climate change, and share our science with their own networks. WHRC generates content for three social media platforms: Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Well-timed posts and engaging content have resulted in social growth for the organization; from December 2018 to December 2019, WHRC’s social media audience grew by over five thousand users. Our science was mentioned or retweeted by Twitter accounts with massive followings such as Nature (1.6 million followers), NASA Earth (1.4M followers), National Science Foundation (1.2M followers), and 60 Minutes (1M followers). As the year comes to an end, we’re taking a look at our most impactful posts of 2019. Communicating with Maps. Forests as Mountains Based solely on metrics, this post was undeniably the most successful of 2019. This “Forests as Mountains” map features above-ground forest carbon presented as 3D elevation surface, and it reached over 300,000 social media users, more people than any other post in 2019. Maps are a powerful way to communicate our science; they’re comprehensive, beautiful, and intuitive. Our social media posts featuring maps (usually created by WHRC Senior Geospatial Analyst Greg Fiske) were often our highest performing.

The Power of Storytelling. Life of a Scientist: Christina Minions Storytelling communicates a message in an entertaining way; this is a valuable tactic as readers’ attention spans become shorter and shorter as our lives become increasingly inundated with content. We developed the “Life of a Scientist” series to give our audience a behind-the-scenes look at what goes into developing our world-class science. These series are told from the scientist’s point of view, and give readers an inside look at life in the field, working in rugged conditions, the logistics of transportation to remote sampling locations, etc. This particular post kicked off a series featuring WHRC scientist Christina Minions, and her field work in Alaska. On Instagram alone, it garnered nearly 60,000 impressions. Spreading Truth. WHRC’s Dr. Paulo Brando Testifies to Brazilian Congress

A powerful function of WHRC’s social media channels in 2019 was to serve as a source of truth for our followers. In a social and political environment often cluttered with misinformation, serving as a hub for accurate, credible science is hugely valuable. Throughout the year, whether a major scientific announcement, or a pivotal political decision, social media posts were generated to quickly share WHRC’s take on the matter. One such example involved this year’s catastrophic Amazon fires. When Brazilian leadership spread misinformation about the root of the fires, our researchers were quick to provide accurate information, and the data to back it up. As a result, WHRC’s Dr. Paulo Brando was invited to testify to Brazilian Congress on the threat of deforestation in the Amazon. On social media, we shared his testimony in Portuguese and in English, to amplify his message. We pinned this post to the very top of our Twitter page, so anyone who visited our account would see this video.

Martha’s Vineyard climate presentation sparks immediate action by Dave McGlinchey

In the news : highlights Burning wood is not a climate change solution. Phil Duffy op-ed in The Hill. December 15

Zero deforestation and sustainable development in the Amazon are possible, says Ipam. Reuters Brazil covers WHRC’s recent study, mentioning WHRC and quoting IPAM’s André Guimarães and Marcelo Stabile. December 11 This year’s Atlantic hurricane season was worse than normal, but it wasn’t nearly as destructive as much of the last 10 years. NBCNews.com quotes Jennifer Francis. December 10

Last week, WHRC President Dr. Philip Duffy spoke to the Martha’s Vineyard Commission about the global climate crisis—prompting the commission to adopt an emergency climate crisis resolution the same evening.

Duffy’s talk covered the current state of climate change, as well as closer looks at permafrost thaw, extreme weather, drought, and sea level rise. He said that to address the crisis, the economy must be decarbonized and policy makers need to employ forests and agriculture soils to pull carbon out of the atmosphere. “We need action. We need it now,” Duffy said.

He told the commission that the 100-square-mile island—located just off of Cape Cod, MA—could be a leader in decarbonizing and preparing for climate change. Immediately after Duffy’s talk, the Commission voted 13-0 for a “climate emergency resolution.”

The island includes six towns: Tisbury, Oak Bluffs, Edgartown, West Tisbury, Chilmark, and Aquinnah. The commission is the regional planning agency that coordinates development planning with all of the town governments. The resolution stated that “the Commission believes it is necessary and appropriate to exercise its authority to protect Island values in the face of the climate crisis.”

The resolution also obligated the Commission to develop a climate change framework for its review and consideration of Developments of Regional Impact and regional policy and planning initiatives.

“I feel Phil’s presentation helped the commissioners understand the urgency to act, and galvanized support for the resolution,” said Ben Robinson, a member of the Commission and the Tisbury Planning Board.

WHRC Senior Scientist Foster Brown received the title of honorary citizen of Brazil’s Rio Branco Municipality for his work on climate change and the regional environment.

Hopes dim as COP25 delegates dicker over Article 6 and world burns: critics. Mongabay quotes WHRC Board Chair Bill Moomaw. December 9 Climate Change Is Accelerating: ‘Things Are Getting Worse’. New York Times quotes Phil Duffy. December 4

New Effort to Understand Arctic Craters Caused by Warming. WCAI’s Living Lab Radio interviews Sue Natali and Greg Fiske. December 2 Canada needs to stick to climate change goals: Expert. BNN Bloomberg (Canada) interview with Jennifer Francis. December 2 MVC to host climate change presentation. Martha’s Vineyard Times previews Phil Duffy’s talk to the Martha’s Vineyard Commission, “Current State of the Climate Crisis.” December 2. With climate change, Washington may have entered era of more blockbuster snowstorms but less snow overall. Washington Post quotes Jennifer Francis. November 26 The State Wants To Turn Cranberry Bogs Into Wetlands. It’s Gritty Work. WBUR features Chris Neill. November 26

Extreme Fires, Creative Solutions. Union of Concerned Scientists blog guest post by Brendan Rogers. November 25

Climate Warnings: Don’t Blame the Scientists. New York Times letter to the editor from Phil Duffy and George Woodwell. November 21 Amazon trees may absorb far less carbon than previously thought: study. Mongabay quotes Chris Neill. November 21

‘We need to act fast’: Statewide forum focused on climate solutions for Arizona. Arizona Republic quotes Rafe Pomerance. November 18 Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common. National Geographic quotes Zach Zobel. November 13 Frozen Researchers Will Greatly Improve Arctic Weather Prediction. Scientific American quotes Jennifer Francis. November 11

Arctic Shifts to a Carbon Source due to Winter Soil Emissions. NASA.gov quotes Sue Natali and Brendan Rogers. November 8

Fact or myth: the Amazon is the Earth’s lungs? Jornal A Gazeta (Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil) op-ed by Foster Brown’s students includes citations of his and Michael Coe’s work. November 5

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This unique visualization by WHRC Senior Geospatial Analyst Greg Fiske shows how the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, largely due to changes in albedo—the melting of polar ice exposes earth surfaces that are much less reflective (low albedo), and more capable of absorbing energy from the sun. Elevation and color are used to illustrate projected average temperature difference (°C) in the years 2040–2060, assuming global emissions remain on the current trajectory (RCP 8.5).