MONTHLY NEWSLETTER JUNE 2019
Woods Hole Research Center Fiddling while Rome burns Dr. Philip B. Duffy President & Executive Director The Trump administration recently announced plans to create a “Presidential Committee on Climate Security,” to assess whether climate change poses a risk to US national security. This ill-advised committee is a dangerous diversion. We need to move on from debating whether or not climate change is a problem to taking serious action to stop it.
Numerous assessments conducted by national security and climate science professionals have already established that climate change is a serious national security risk. This new review is apparently to be performed by a hand-picked set of climate change deniers led by William Happer, who rejects the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases, and in fact, has accused scientists of “demonizing” carbon dioxide. All of this, therefore, seems like a cynical attempt to produce preordained conclusions that support a political agenda, rather than a legitimate scientific inquiry. Be that as it may, if the committee goes it should be subject to the same rigorous academic peer-review as other climate assessments like the National Climate Assessment and reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
All of this is a distraction from what we should be focused on: solutions. It is encouraging to see the beginnings of a bipartisan consensus on this point. Earlier this year, Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), and Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.) published an op-ed declaring, “Climate change is real, and as Republican Leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, we are focused on solutions.” And at two different House hearings, Republicans invited witnesses who accepted the climate science consensus and chose to focus debate on how America can respond.
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By NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from Greenbelt, MD, USA
Extreme weather puts spotlight on climate change impacts by Miles Grant The beginning of 2019 was the 3rd-warmest ever, according to the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the five warmest January-May periods have all come in the last five years. The United States has been wracked by extreme precipitation, with May being the 2nd-wettest month in US history. 2019 is also the wettest year-to-date and the United States is experiencing the wettest 12-month period in recorded history. With a range of extreme weather records falling or being challenged in the early months of 2019, WHRC Senior Scientist Jennifer Francis has been a prominent voice in the national conversation about climate change’s influences.
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WHRC is an independent research organization where scientists study climate change and how to solve it, from the Amazon to the Arctic. Learn more at www.whrc.org.
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A bipartisan discussion on climate solutions is critical because science tells us we’re running short on time. As carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere the effects of climate change become more obvious: the last five years are the five hottest on record globally. NOAA reports the winter of 2018–2019 was the wettest on record in the United States, with severe floods from California to Tennessee. Wildfire activity in the western US has increased ten-fold in recent decades, and last year’s fires in California led to the bankruptcy of a major utility company there. Even adjusted for inflation, the
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world had never seen a year with more than 30 disasters causing at least $1 billion in damage until 2010—but since then we’ve had six such years, according to insurance broker Aon. While it is encouraging to see indications of motion in Washington, we can’t postpone action while the national political process unfolds. We need strong steps now by state and local governments, and by the private sector. Our work at WHRC reflects this, with growing private-sector engagement complementing our longstanding work at all levels of government. Individuals have an important role as
well. Their actions and behaviors set social norms But if these early reports are correct and the Trump administration plans to try to distract us from our climate reality, rejecting denial and delay tactics should not be a partisan issue. Meeting our climate challenge will take a government and private sector effort on par with World War II mobilization. America rose to meet that test, and we can meet this one as well. But we need to start now: the longer we wait, the harder the job becomes. Thanks as always for your interest and support.
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Among the extreme weather events of note in the first five months of 2019:
• Andrea only held Subtropical Storm status for only one day in May, but it was enough to break a record, marking the fifth year in a row that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season June 1. • An unusually wavy jet stream contributed to record heat in California and the southeast along with record flooding in the Midwest. Scientists are also examining if and how the extremes may have contributed to May’s unusual burst of tornadoes.
• Temperatures soaring 40 degrees F above normal on Greenland’s ice sheet triggered an early start to summer ice melt, a spike eerily reminiscent of 2012’s off-the-charts summer thaw. On June 5, Dr. Francis took part in a Florida news conference to highlight the connection between global warming and strengthening tropical storms. The first presidential primary debate will take place June 26-27 in Miami, the U.S. city most threatened by rising seas, with activists pressuring debate hosts to make climate change a key topic. Additionally, Dr. Francis has been featured by the New York Times, Washington Post, Living Lab
New Horizon Artist Doug Aitken's mirrored hot air balloon is coming to Martha's Vineyard. WHRC’s Dr. Spencer Glendon and Dr. Chris Neill will be speaking at the art event "NEW HORIZON: The Future of Climate" on July 14th. Glendon will discuss how our notions of progress, permanence, and preservation will change as the global climate grows warmer and less stable, and Neill will explore how future landscapes can be designed to optimize benefits for climate, wildlife, and society. The event, a collaborative effort with The Trustees, will include live music, conversation, plus food and drink. For information and tickets, visit: www.thetrustees.org/newhorizon
Radio on Falmouth’s WCAI-FM, and many other media outlets.
In the June 2019 edition of Scientific American, Dr. Francis authored an article connecting the dots between warming global temperatures and worsening weather extremes. “[E]very year it becomes clearer that today’s epidemic of bizarre weather cannot be explained by natural variability. Although in the past scientists were careful to not directly link climate change to specific weather events, we are now indeed saying that because of climate change, major floods are occurring more often. Killer heat waves are hotter and lasting longer. Cold spells are sticking around longer in some places, too.”
RSVP now for the concert! Woods Hole Research Center
CLIMATE CONCERT July 20, 2019
•
5–7 pm
An evening of bluegrass music featuring
Brother's Rye
Learn more & RSVP: whrc.org/climate-concert
Fire, climate change may lead to prolonged tropical forest degradation by Miles Grant A first-of-its-kind study details how long it takes neotropical forests to bounce back from fires—a key stress for forests worsened by global warming-fueled droughts. The new research is based on 14 years of measurements at the Tanguro ranch research station in the Brazilian Amazon by a team including scientists from Woods Hole Research Center and IPAM Amazonia. It showed that the cycling of carbon and water between forest and atmosphere had recovered to pre-fire levels within seven years, but the forests themselves were still in decline— with large older trees still being lost and replaced by young fast-growing species. The study was published in Global Change Biology and was co-authored by WHRC scientists Paulo Brando, Michael Coe, and Marcia Macedo. The team examined postfire dynamics in a set of tropical forest plots that were experimentally burned from 2004 to 2010 (one burned every year, one burned every three years, and one unburned control plot), then damaged by a windstorm in 2012.
Using two 100-foot flux towers, scientists measured how forest recovery influenced carbon emissions and absorption and water cycling. They also used LiDAR (light detection and ranging) to measure tree height and size.
Nearly ten years after the final burn, the forest plots remained degraded. Not only was total tree biomass reduced, but the plots remained vulnerable to wind damage, especially on the edges. That is a critical factor as deforestation cuts more edges into the Amazon’s canopy. Grasses also invaded the tree plots, leaving them even more flammable and vulnerable to long-term forest deterioration. “We found evidence that net carbon exchange and evapotranspiration had recovered, but the forest struggled to regain its original biomass, carbon stocks, and total canopy. We’ll need more time to learn whether the plots will fully recover, or if a tipping point has been reached, pushing the forest into more of a forestgrassland hybrid,” Dr. Brando said.
The study has implications far beyond just the Amazon as agriculture, logging and development threaten forests around the world, and climate change hampers their ability to recover. A 2015 WHRC study showed climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of disturbances such as windstorms and droughts. More frequent disturbances would hinder recovery of biomass and biodiversity, especially in landscapes becoming more fragmented by deforestation.
The Amazon has already lost 800,000 square kilometers of forest, an area equivalent to 1/10th of the continental United States, much of it to intentional burning to clear land for agriculture. WHRC scientists are continuing to study forest regrowth to help tropical countries achieve their climate goals to maintain and restore forest carbon stocks in protected forests, indigenous reserves, and private properties, as well as protecting biodiversity and forest ecosystem services.
DRC soil carbon paper presented at Global Soil Week by Miles Grant The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stores a massive amount of globally important soil carbon, according to research that was presented at Global Soil Week in Kenya by Joseph Zambo, Forests and Climate Change Coordinator for Projet Équateur, WHRC’s DRC outreach program. The 2019 Global Soil Week conference, held May 26–30 in Nairobi, focused on the increasingly urgent need for inclusive investments in sustainable land management. Zambo’s presentation was titled “Emissions reductions programs in the DRC: governance lessons from Projet Équateur for the conservation of soils.” WHRC’s paper, authored by Kathleen Savage, Dr. Jonathan Sanderman, and Dr. Glenn Bush, details how DRC’s soil contains more carbon than all of the country’s forest biomass—more than 26 billion tons, according to the best available estimates. But land use can drive rapid changes in soil carbon levels, and studies show DRC soils have already lost as much as 1.6 billion tons of carbon due to land use activities.
Despite this importance, soil carbon management and monitoring is not explicitly included in the DRC’s nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, although they are narrowly considered in their contributions to forest-based emissions reference levels. WHRC is developing research priorities to reconcile soil carbon and productivity in agricultural systems. Critically, we seek to find avenues to integrate these issues in climate monitoring and emission reductions programs through
participation in, and the development of, national and regional networks for education, training and capacity building.
“To keep climate-disrupting carbon safely locked in DRC’s soil, we need more integrated landscape management (forest and agricultural land) to slow or even reverse the loss of soil carbon. Improving soil carbon levels contributes directly to both climate stabilization and human development by enhancing agricultural productivity and food security.” Dr. Bush said.
Bucking White House, National Academies issues statement in support of climate science by Dave McGlinchey The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine released a public statement this week, affirming the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change and calling for evidencedbased climate policies.
“Recently, questions have been raised about climate science,” wrote Academies Presidents Marcia McNutt, C. D. Mote, Jr., and Victor J. Dzau. “We are speaking out to support the cumulative scientific evidence for climate change and the scientists who continue to advance our understanding. Scientists have known for some time, from multiple lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate, primarily through greenhouse gas emissions. The evidence on the impacts
of climate change is also clear and growing. The atmosphere and the Earth’s oceans are warming, the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events are increasing, and sea level is rising along our coasts.”
The public statement comes in response to Trump Administration efforts to
undermine federal climate science— including the federal National Climate Assessment. WHRC President Phil Duffy
was recently featured on the front page of the New York Times pushing back against the role of politics in determining scientific processes.
Duffy served on a National Academy of Sciences panel that reviewed the federal government’s most recent National Climate Assessment. The Times reported that Trump Administration officials are working to prevent federal scientists from researching climate change impacts using highemissions scenarios or from projecting climate change impacts beyond 2040.
“What we have here is a pretty blatant attempt to politicize the science—to push the science in a direction that’s consistent with their politics,” Duffy said.
WHRC supporting sustainable alpaca farming efforts by Natalie Baillargeon Making agriculture more sustainable is a critical component of tackling climate change, and WHRC Associate Scientist Dr. Jonathan Sanderman is working locally with a particularly adorable subject matter. Several southeastern New England alpaca and wool farms are partnering with the Southeastern New England Fibershed team and to develop a Carbon Farming Cohort, to identify best practices for their grazing and animal management systems.
receive Fibershed’s Climate Beneficial certification, used by companies like The North Face and Patagonia.
“Looking at farmers as a solution to climate change instead of a problem became a really compelling approach for me,” said Karen Schwalbe, Executive Director of SEMAP. “Helping farmers understand how farming is connected to the climate,
to the environment, to ecosystems, and to give them the tools to do better farm management with outcomes like better soil health, also better planetary health, and an increase in biodiversity. Working with Dr. Sanderman means we’re not just making nice-sounding promises—we’re making real contributions to confronting climate change.”
Fibershed is a national organization that helps farmers minimize their carbon footprint and environmental impact, from raising animals to fiber processing to garment-making. The Southeastern New England Fibershed team is working with Dr. Sanderman, Dr. Christine Worthington, a local pasture management specialist, and Massachusetts Agricultural Partnership (SEMAP).
Last fall, Dr. Sanderman processed soil samples from each of the farms using WHRC’s Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and elemental analyzer to get baseline data on soil properties and health. That data will allow for comparisons as farmers try alternative farming and grazing practices in hopes of increasing the soil’s carbon storage. Longterm, if the practices are shown to increase soil carbon sequestration, farmers may
In the news : highlights Boston Built a New Waterfront Just in Time for the Apocalypse. Bloomberg Businessweek quotes Spencer Glendon. June 18 The poisons being released by melting Arctic ice. BBC News features Sue Natali. June 17 Alaska is melting and it’s likely to accelerate global heating. The Guardian (UK) quotes Sue Natali. June 14
Temperatures leap 40 degrees above normal as the Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet see record June melting, Washington Post quotes Jennifer Francis June 14 California Heat Wave: Why It’s 100 Degrees in San Francisco in June. New York Times quotes Jennifer Francis. June 13 Climate scientists partner with McKinsey to push companies to self-regulate. Reuters profiles WHRC’s work with McKinsey and quotes Spencer Glendon. June 4
In the Great Marsh and other coastal wetlands, climate change is harming delicate ecosystems. Boston Globe features Hillary Sullivan. June 2
Tornado season in overdrive: What’s behind the extreme weather hitting the Midwest? CBS News quotes Jennifer Francis. May 29 Trump Administration Hardens Its Attack on Climate Science. New York Times quotes Phil Duffy. May 28
Florida appoints first chief science officer to take on climate crisis. The Guardian cites Spencer Glendon. May 28
Forecasts Call for a Normal Hurricane Season, but ‘It Only Takes One.’ New York Times quotes Jennifer Francis. May 23
Eden no more. Science Advances article by WHRC Board Vice Chair Thomas Lovejoy May 6
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Fidaa Janoudi is a summer lab assistant working with WHRC’s Dr. Jon Sanderman. Here, she is grinding soil samples that will be processed on the Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) machine to obtain data on soil health properties. WHRC studies soil samples from around the world to build a repository of information about various soil properties (including soil carbon) and how those properties can be quickly identified with spectroscopy. These samples are from locations across 7 U.S. states.