Newsletter ~ May 2019 by Woodwell Climate Research Center

MONTHLY NEWSLETTER MAY 2019

Woods Hole Research Center A new reason to value WHRC’s work Dr. Philip B. Duffy President & Executive Director Climate science and policy discussions are so focused on what we need to do (but are not doing) in the next several decades, that very little attention is paid to “the end game,” maintaining a stable and safe climate into perpetuity.

That requires levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases which are steady or decreasing and are low enough that the climate is livable in most places where people are now. To get there we need to cease all direct human emissions of greenhouse gases (from fossil fuel burning, land use change, agriculture etc.) That’s difficult enough, goodness knows, but it’s only the beginning. Biogenic feedbacks, such as thawing permafrost, add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. This means that even if direct human emissions of greenhouse gases are completely shut off, these feedbacks will continue to push us into a warmer climate. That of course would strengthen the feedback emissions, and it would only get worse from there.

In other words, greenhouse gas emissions from biogenic feedbacks threaten to undo all of the hard work it would take to stop human emissions of greenhouse gases, work which so many of us are so fervently engaged in. As discussed in a recent paper published by the National Academy of Sciences, these feedback emissions tend to push us into a “hothouse Earth” through uncontrolled climate warming. This is a situation we want to avoid, to put it mildly. What does this have to do with WHRC’s work? Everything, as it turns out. The paper lists five biogenic feedback mechanisms which tend to destabilize Earth’s climate,

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Grant sustains landmark Plum Island estuary study in new phase by Miles Grant Woods Hole Research Center and partners are launching the next phase of a long-term collaborative study in the salt marsh ecosystems in the Plum Island Estuary, to learn how long it takes for salt marshes to recover from long-term nutrient pollution. The first-of-its-kind study will examine what happens when the flow of nutrients stops, and what we can do to help speed recovery. The study is part of The TIDE Project, a collaboration launched in 2002, and is supported by a $1.6 million grant from the National Science Foundation. Nutrient runoff pollution from agriculture, septic tanks and sewage systems, lawns, and the burning of fossil fuels has increased dramatically worldwide over the last century, damaging coastal ecosystems. Previous WHRC research, led by Senior Scientist Linda Deegan, has shown excessive nutrient pollution causes changes in marsh microbes, algae and plant life that causes marsh edges to collapse, compromising the salt marsh’s ability to keep up with rising ocean water. Researchers have also seen declining populations of a small fish called the mummichog, which travels into the marsh to feed and reproduce, and then themselves become an important food source for larger fish and seabirds.

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WHRC is an independent research organization where scientists study climate change and how to solve it, from the Amazon to the Arctic. Learn more at www.whrc.org.

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and four of these are topics of research at WHRC (permafrost thawing, relative weakening of physiological carbon sinks, Amazon forest dieback, boreal forest dieback). This means that WHRC’s work is central to understanding not only direct human contributions and solutions to climate change, but also “natural” mechanisms, stimulated by humans, which threaten to overwhelm everything else humanity is doing. It doesn’t get much more important than that.

Understanding is great, you may be thinking, but what can we do about this? That depends upon what research reveals. It’s conceivable that we may be able to find ways to slow or even stop biogenic feedback emissions. Most likely, however, at least some of these biogenic feedback mechanisms will continue to emit, and in order to keep the climate stable we’ll need to figure out some way to remove enough greenhouse gases from the atmosphere to keep overall levels steady or decreasing. If we can

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remove greenhouse gases quickly enough, Earth will eventually cool and the feedback mechanisms will slow down, allowing us to slow and ultimately to stop removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

If this all sounds pretty challenging, it is, but I don’t see any other way to safeguard the long-term future of humanity. Also, as with everything in climate policy, while the science is plenty difficult, the hardest part is probably achieving the degree of societal cooperation needed to implement whatever long-term solution is devised.

As the title says, thinking about “the end game” provides a new reason to value WHRC’s work. On some level, these biogenic climate feedbacks are another example of how, as George Woodwell first pointed out long ago, a healthy and functioning biosphere is necessary for a stable climate and ultimately for human prosperity. Thanks as always for your interest and support.

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“For about a century, we’ve been polluting marshes with excess nutrients. As federal, state and local governments now work to cut that pollution, our study will examine if ecosystems reach a point of no return, or if they can make a comeback,” Deegan said. “This work will be important in learning how to restore marshes, and what factors allow them to survive climate change-driven rising seas.”

This new research comes at a critical time, with over $200 million proposed in the next five years to restore salt marshes along the Mid-Atlantic coast in the wake of massive losses from superstorm Sandy in 2012. Marshes can serve as storm buffers for coastal communities, acting as speed bumps to slow storm surges.

Marshes can also absorb and store carbon pollution, but right now scientists don’t have a strong understanding of how nitrogen pollution has harmed their carbon storage capability. Previous studies looked at alreadydegraded marshes, or covered the surface of a marsh with fertilizer. But researchers in Plum Island felt strongly

that it was important to go a step further, to understand how a healthy marsh reacts to a massive dose of nutrient pollution.

Started in 2003, the TIDE Project introduced large quantities of fertilizer to one area of the marsh in order to understand the effects of and natural recovery from large-scale nutrient pollution. The researchers have now stopped adding the artificial pollution, and are monitoring the marshes’ progress toward recovery. “This was the first large scale nutrient enrichment experiment of its kind, and the first large scale recovery of its kind,” said Hillary Sullivan, a biogeochemist who did her master’s thesis on the TIDE Project and is now a research assistant at WHRC. “Nutrient pollution shows how human activity creates a footprint on this really important ecosystem, and what we want to learn is how can we mitigate these actions that are destroying something we rely on.” The new phase of the project will begin this month, just before the saltmarsh grasses emerge, allowing scientists to study the full growing season response of soil, microbes, plants, and animals.

Amazon indigenous communities look to integrate WHRC data in policy push by Miles Grant Over the past year, Woods Hole Research Center and our partners held a series of workshops to deliver the latest climate change science to the people directly responsible for managing protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon forest. The fifth and final workshop took place in Brasilia from May 8-11, Amazon Indigenous Peoples: Combining Traditional Knowledge and Technical Data for Political Action. WHRC’s Dr. Marcia Macedo helped lead the workshop, which demonstrated how scientific data on the effects of biomass and climate changes, mining, dams, and other threats could help traditional communities make the strongest possible case to policymakers for protecting tropical forests. Participants included 35 indigenous leaders from four Amazonian countries, spanning all nine states of the Brazilian Amazon and representing at least 15 ethnic groups.

WHRC’s Climate Source web tool summarizes key datasets for over 4000 Amazon indigenous territories and protected areas, showing changes in the length of the dry season, rainfall, temperature, biomass, and other factors. Some participants report facing major floods, while others reported ongoing

droughts, wildfires, and food insecurity. The workshop helped them discuss shared obstacles and solutions, as well as the challenge of managing transboundary areas. “Climate change is an overwhelming global challenge, and its impacts vary depending on where you live. By breaking down this data at the local level, we make the problem more tangible for individuals and communities,” said Dr. Macedo, a dual citizen of the U.S. and Brazil who has been working on Amazon protection since 2000.

While that often leads to difficult conversations about the future, it can also inspire creative solutions and collective action. “Looking at the science through the lens of the people most affected by climate change makes it much more clear—to the heart as well as the head— what’s at stake,” she adds. This workshop comes at a critical moment, just after a major demonstration to defend indigenous land rights in Brazil and just ahead of two key United Nations climate meetings. The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) meeting will take place this June in Bonn, Germany, followed by the

In the news : highlights Lenders Scolded for Climate Ignorance in ‘Insane’ Florida Real Estate Deals article in Bloomberg quotes Spencer Glendon and was picked up by Yahoo Finance, The Weather Network, Insurance Journal, National Real Estate Investor, and others. May 13 U.S. objections to climate change language throw wrench in Arctic diplomacy. Rafe Pomerance is quoted in this Axios article. May 7 Trump administration pushed to strip mention of climate change from Arctic policy statement. This Washington Post article, with extensive printing in other newspapers via wire service, quotes Rafe Pomerance. May 4

Conference of the Parties (COP25) in December in Santiago, Chile.

Through their land rights and advocacy, indigenous peoples have helped conserve millions of hectares of pristine forests across the Amazon Basin. Worldwide, tropical forests store 230 billion tons of carbon. Each year they absorb over 1 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere, more than 10 percent of fossil fuel emissions. “It was gratifying to see participants connecting the science in the portal to what they’ve observed as effects of climate change on the ground. That gives confidence that the changes they’re noticing are part of a global context. Indigenous communities are already aware of the importance of protecting the Amazon forest, but this data makes their argument for preservation much stronger,” said Dr. Andréa D. de Almeida Castanho, WHRC Research Associate.

Partners included the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon River Basin (COICA), Coordination of the Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon (COIAB), Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), Amazon Geo-Referenced Socio-Environmental Information Network (RAISG), and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). The workshop was supported through grants from the Moore Foundation and the Norwegian Agency for Development Coordination (NORAD).

WHRC and IPAM plan to expand this work with indigenous coalitions by training local leaders to use the Climate Source in their own communities and build capacity for sustained policy action. Researcher Examines Impact of Melting Polar Ice on Hurricanes. WLRN (Miami Public Radio) aired an interview with Jennifer Francis. April 30

Soaked Midwest Farmers Can Blame Warm Pacific for Juicing Storms. Bloomberg News quotes Jennifer Francis. April 24 Behind the battle against deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. CBS News aired a series of Earth Day stories, this one featuring Paulo Brando and Michael Coe. April 22

How Wellington Is Reshaping Its ESG Investing. This article in Barron’s quotes Phil Duffy and Wellington’s Chris Goolgasian. April 20

Study: soil carbon fails to recover in cleared forests by Miles Grant If a forest is clear-cut, then allowed to grow back, its carbon stocks may look identical to the naked eye, but it turns out carbon losses in the soil can be large and lasting, according to new study by Woods Hole Research Center scientist Dr. Jonathan Sanderman, published in the journal Biogeochemistry.

Previous work on forest carbon stocks took place over short time spans, but Sanderman and his colleagues spent 16 years tracking a single forest in New Hampshire. The research team sampled soils prior to the whole-tree harvest of a watershed in New Hampshire, and

then sampled again in years 3, 8, and 15 following the harvest. Co-authors include Dr. Steve Hamburg, Dr. Chris Johnson, and Dr. Matt Vadeboncoeur.

The researchers found that it took 15 years of biomass accumulation to simply offset the carbon losses incurred in the mineral soil, leading to a near-zero net carbon gain over the study period. “Clearcut harvesting can have sustained negative impacts on soil resources," Sanderman said. In other words, the soil loses significant carbon while treeless, and even when the tree canopy returns, the soil’s carbon storage remains well below its original carbon level even after 15 years. Dr. Sanderman is a biogeochemist who specializes in understanding how soil carbon and nutrient cycles have been altered by land-use and climate change. He began working on the study shortly after completing his undergraduate degree at Brown University.

“While this is only one location, this study used massive soil sampling campaigns over time to do an excellent job tracking soil carbon pools, so we are very confident in the findings. Most studies of soil carbon changes following forestry use what’s known as a chronosequence - studying several distinct sites of varying ages and assuming they’re representative over time,” Sanderman said.

It’s unclear exactly what happens to the carbon in the soil. The two most probable fates are decomposition and release to the atmosphere as CO2 or runoff into waterways, but the researchers say future studies are needed.

The study has implications for forest policy, especially in light of increasing demand for woody biomass electricity production. If forest harvesting is expanded, then it will take substantially longer than previously assumed to offset harvest- or bioenergy-related carbon dioxide emissions with carbon uptake during forest regrowth.

Scientists track river herring to help population recovery by Dave McGlinchey WHRC scientists tagged more than 500 river herring in late April and early May, as part of a project to help understand migration challenges, and to inform habitat management decisions in Massachusetts.

The research focuses on two species, Alewife and Blueback, which comprise what is commonly known as river herring. River herring are anadromous species, which spend part of their life history in salt water, but enter freshwater habitats to reproduce and rear young.

According to WHRC scientist Dr. Heidi Golden, river herring populations have been at historic lows since the early 1990s. Multiple factors, including overfishing, habitat degradation, and obstructed spawning migration contributed to this decline. Golden said that the Southern New England stocks of Alewife and Blueback herring are no longer specifically fished, but they are often caught along with Atlantic herring while at sea. WHRC scientists are trying to better understand river herring population dynamics, movement patterns, and habitat requirements by capturing,

tagging, and tracking fish during their spring spawning migration.

“We tag the herring using uniquely coded PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags and follow their migration paths using remote antenna arrays placed at various locations along the Coonamessett River,” Golden said. “We like to use the analogy of EasyPass that cars use on the highway, PIT tag antennas are like EasyPass for fish. Using this technique, we have been able to pin-point areas that limit their timely and efficient passage and then use that information to make informed management decisions, such as road culvert replacement, cranberry bog restoration, and dam removal.”

There are also early indications that habitat restoration projects are helping the fish – specifically involving a newly restored section of the Coonamessett River that was previously an abandoned cranberry bog. “This is the second season post-restoration and already the fish are passing through

this area with greater ease than they did prior to restoration,” Golden said. “This is likely due to the removal of a large water control structure the used to impede fish passage and creation of meanders for the river. Additionally, fewer osprey were observed fishing over the restored section of the river, which might be due to the addition of large woody debris and creation of deep pools (formed by the meanders) for the herring to hide under and within. These are positive indications that cranberry bog restoration could benefit herring populations.”

Sustainable commercial development heating up by Miles Grant Boston Properties is the largest owner, manager, and developer of office and mixed-use properties in the United States. Ben Myers serves as its sustainability director, with responsibilities covering energy and water management, green building development strategy, distributed generation and storage, energy conservation measure implementation, resiliency planning, sustainability education, communication and public reporting.

“I’ve seen interest in sustainable development double in the last five years,” Myers said. Boston Properties’ strategy focuses on cutting operating costs, protecting asset value, and growing socially responsible investment. Myers’ May 9 talk at Woods Hole Research Center, Commercial Real Estate Development in the Era of Climate Action: The Personal and Portfolio Growth of a Green Building Strategist, was part of WHRC’s 2019 Lecture Series: Climate Change Action in the Private Sector, with support from the Cape Cod Foundation. Boston Properties has taken on sustainability challenges in both new and older buildings, and has reduced the carbon intensity of its operations 39% over the last ten years. Its Salesforce Tower, which opened in 2018 and is San

Francisco’s tallest building, earned more points under the LEED Version 3 rating system than any other project in the San Francisco Bay Area and is the highest rated new skyscraper in the State of California. The Tower also features the largest on-site water recycling system in a commercial high-rise building in the country. The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) awarded it “best tall building worldwide,” citing its sustainable elements.

Meanwhile, retrofitting older buildings poses a challenge. Using one of New England’s best-known buildings as an example, Myers talked about the obstacles in making 200 Clarendon (the former Hancock Tower) more energy efficient. The 60-story, 790-foot building, Boston’s tallest, has around 5,000 blue reflective glass panels – all single-pane. Even as sun blasts the south side, north-facing panels may remain below freezing, presenting a huge challenge to keep office space at a comfortable temperature. Myers thinks we need better policies and incentives to encourage building sustainability, particularly in regards to moving towards electric heating and carbon neutral operations. “In our global efforts to decarbonize the built environment, we are only going to get so far with voluntary initiatives by

Seeking Corporate Sponsors WHRC invites your business to standout in the community as a leader on climate change solutions by becoming a corporate sponsor. By doing so you are providing resources for WHRC to be at the forefront in understanding and finding science-informed solutions to global climate change. In return, we created many ways to recognize you among our community of over 10,000 engaged individuals. For details please refer to our sponsor sheet that contains various levels and benefits which can be tailored to meet your company’s needs. Please contact Beth Brazil at bbrazil@whrc.org or 508-444-1549 for more information.

companies like Boston Properties. You need the right incentives and regulations,” Myers said.

Meanwhile, his company is leading by example. “We’re currently offsetting our carbon footprint with wind energy from West Texas, but my vision is to have the Prudential Center (owned by Boston Properties) powered by local generation, like Vineyard Wind,” Myers said. Myers also commended Woods Hole Research Center’s sustainable facility, praising its wind turbine and solar arrays. “When I look at the WHRC energy dashboard showing you’re at net zero, taking no power off the grid, that’s the coolest thing in the world – it makes me love this place even more,” he said.

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Christina Minions, an environmental scientist at WHRC specializing in Arctic greenhouse gas emissions, provided a look at her work through a series of social media posts. Here she wrote: I took this photo from a ridge line just above one of our field sites near Fairbanks, Alaska. I enjoy this view because you can see the variability in the landscape from forests to floodplains to wetlands, and you can see the mountains of the Alaska Range rising in the distance.