From the President

This has been a year none of us will soon forget, and the excitement may not be over.

As I write this, Joe Biden is preparing to take office as our 46th president, even as the losing incumbent refuses to concede. New case numbers for COVID-19 are breaking records globally and in the United States, and the impending holiday season threatens to push them higher still.

Events like these draw attention away from climate change, but this was a remarkable year in that domain as well. Among other things, I will remember 2020 as the year that climate change smacked us in the face, becoming disruptive on a broad scale. In California, wildfires burned more than 4 million acres, more than twice the previous annual record, set only two years ago—and the fire season continues. Record-breaking wildfires also occurred in other western states, as well as in the Arctic, parts of Brazil, and Australia. In addition, this year saw a record number (30) of named tropical storms in the Atlantic, as well as a record number (12) of storms making landfall in the United States—and the hurricane season continues.

Against this backdrop of destruction, and nearly lost in the post-election tension, on November 4 the United States became the only nation in the world not to be a party to the Paris Climate Agreement. And the scheduled meeting of United Nations climate negotiators in December is not taking place, for the first time ever, because of COVID restrictions.

What can we expect the new year to bring, in terms of climate progress?

Big picture, it is clear that the Biden-Harris administration will make climate change a top priority and will integrate climate priorities into its policies throughout the government. They are being urged to create a new administrative structure in the White House specifically to accelerate climate progress. This would be appropriate, not only because of the urgency of the issue but because climate change touches everything—every citizen, every state, every sector of the economy. Solutions need to be comprehensive.

It’s premature to divine the implications of the election for climate progress at the federal level in the United States (although that’s not stopping lots of folks from trying). Among other unknowns, control of the Senate remains in doubt. Regardless of that outcome, I suspect that bold, comprehensive climate legislation (like carbon pricing) is probably not in the cards. If I am wrong about that, it will be because of pressure from the private sector, and we can be proud that Woodwell’s work with leaders in the world of business and finance is moving things in that direction. A more likely possibility for legislative progress is to insert climate measures in non-climate legislation, such as the next farm bill.

An economic stimulus bill in response to COVID provides another opportunity for climate progress, via investments in low-carbon and climate-ready infrastructure, for example.

Of course, non-legislative tools, including executive orders and EPA regulation of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act, can make a big difference. The Clean Air Act, for example, allows (in fact requires) EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants, and industry. The Obama administration used this tool effectively, but court challenges have limited its impact.

How might all of this affect our work at Woodwell Climate?

A significant fraction of our revenue comes from federal government research grants, hence we closely follow prospects for global change research funding. Here again, there is little certainty. Historically, funding for U.S. global change research has been remarkably insensitive to changes in political leadership, holding steady at around $2.5 billion per year through the Obama and Trump years. A Biden-Harris administration may well seek increases; on the other hand, unprecedented federal budget deficits will create pressure in the opposite direction.

Some basics about our work won’t change. The topical focus areas of our research—Arctic, Carbon, Risk, Tropics, and Water—reflect the important scientific questions that need to be addressed to inform climate policies, and those don’t change with political leadership. What may be new, of course, are opportunities to apply this understanding to federal climate policy. For example, meeting the new administration’s top-line goal of reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050 will require aggressive and intelligent use of land carbon sinks. We can make two essential contributions here: scoping and planning, and measuring progress (carbon storage) after policies are implemented. Similarly, our work on greenhouse gas emissions from a thawing Arctic provides critical (but currently overlooked) information in setting global mitigation targets. Once again, having access to U.S. negotiators in the State Department will provide an important pathway for that work to have impact. These would be major contributions, and there will likely be other opportunities as well.

One thing I know for sure about 2021 and beyond is that the bombardment of extreme weather events will continue. As I have said in public, the terrible climate-related events of 2020 are not the new normal—extreme weather and all of its associated societal consequences will continue to get worse as long as we keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The challenge and the urgency are greater than ever, but it will be extremely helpful to once again have an executive branch willing to recognize the threat of climate change and to embrace science-based policies to address that threat. At a critical moment, this will create important opportunities for Woodwell, for the nation, and the world.

Philip B. Duffy President and Executive Director