International Best Practices in Transmission and Distribution Asset Risk Management Paul Blackmore (EA Technology)
Who we are… • Established in the 1960s as an R&D centre to focus on electricity T&D • Today, work with clients in utilities, infrastructure and related sectors • We deliver innovative responses to the challenges faced by our clients via:
• • • •
Condition monitoring Instrumentation Specialist Electrical Engineering Services Power Skills Training Services Power Engineering Consultancy Condition Based Risk Management (CBRM) We are an employee-owned company, providing end-to-end technical services and products to global power networks. 2
Strong commitment to Asia Pacific
Offices in Singapore, Shanghai, Brisbane.
Regional sales manager – Bangkok - Pattarapat (Annie)
Asia pacific consulting manager
In region consulting and management support based in Singapore, Brisbane and Auckland.
Full technical support from Europe operations
Why worry about Risk?
Managing Risk Through Condition Based Maintenance
Condition Based Maintenance Process
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We estimate that PD related failures account for more than 50% of all failures and around 80% of disruptive failures.
After Paoletti et al. Failure contributors of MV Electrical Equipment and Condition Assessment Program Development. IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,(Volume:38 , Issue: 6 2002 ))
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Partial discharge is the major cause of disruptive failure in metal clad switchgear.
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Surface Partial Discharge
Surface Partial Discharge
Internal Partial Discharge
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Multi-functional Partial Discharge (PD) instrument
surface/airgap: ultrasonic
internal: TEV
Source: Enhancing TNB Medium Voltage Switchgear Condition Based Maintenance by Using Partial Discharge Application - Sharizal Shamuri Tenaga Nasional Berhad 1 7
case study: AADC Failure reductions
case study: AADC Resource savings
case study: Singapore Power
Next Steps Review equipment failure causes Identify CBM techniques
Develop processes and documentation Implementation
When should we replace ageing assets?
When should we replace or refurbish poor condition assets?
Condition information can be cloud of unrelated data
SPARE PARTS
A health index compresses the cloud of data and knowledge into a single number
Health Index Data and Knowledge
Summarise the condition of thousands of assets on a single chart Health Index profile - Today
‘Drill down’ to view condition details about individual assets Health Index Factors
CB Key
Description
Substation ID
Region
Manufacturer
Type/Model
Voltage
ManuModel
504495 504498 56812 56818 56819 56783 56784 504493 56785 194 56755 271 272 56820 56762 56774 56776 185 192 216
307 305 156 1055 1057 111 112 306 115 BUS COUPLER 1042 AUSTIN Durham 1059 1091 1071 1076 CAERNARVON MEIHANA Orotu
Taupo South Taupo South Rangitane Tamatea Tamatea Havelock North Havelock North Taupo South Havelock North Hastings Camberley Tamatea Tamatea Esk Esk Flaxmere Flaxmere Flaxmere Flaxmere Tamatea
Taupo Taupo Hastings Napier Napier Hastings Hastings Taupo Hastings Hastings Hastings Napier Napier Napier Napier Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings
AEI AEI AEI AEI AEI AEI AEI AEI AEI CROMPTON PARKINSON AEI GEC GEC AEI AEI AEI AEI GEC GEC REYROLLE PACIFIC
JB424 (800A) JB424 (800A) JB424 WM3 JB424 WM3 JB424 WM3 JB424 WM1 JB424 WM1 JB424 (800A) JB424 WM3 ALAI.DB (800A) JB424 WM3 BVP17 (400A) BVP17 (400A) JB424 WM3 JB424 WM1 JB424 WM3 JB424 WM3 BVP17 (400A) BVP17 (400A) LMT/X6/MO
33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 11 33 11 11 33 33 33 33 11 11 11
AEI > JB424 (800A) AEI > JB424 (800A) AEI > JB424 WM3 AEI > JB424 WM3 AEI > JB424 WM3 AEI > JB424 WM1 AEI > JB424 WM1 AEI > JB424 (800A) AEI > JB424 WM3 CROMPTON PARKINSON > ALAI.DB (800A) AEI > JB424 WM3 GEC > BVP17 (400A) GEC > BVP17 (400A) AEI > JB424 WM3 AEI > JB424 WM1 AEI > JB424 WM3 AEI > JB424 WM3 GEC > BVP17 (400A) GEC > BVP17 (400A) REYROLLE PACIFIC > LMT/X6/MO
Location Factor
Blank1
1.00 1.00 1.20 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.00 0.97 0.97 1.20 1.20 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.97
Duty Factor 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.00 1.05 1.20 1.20 1.10 1.05 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.20 1.20
Health Index Condition Current Blank 2 Factor Year 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.55 1.50 1.25 1.55 1.30 1.30 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.25 1.25 1.30
8.80 8.53 8.25 8.53 8.53 8.25 8.25 7.68 6.96 6.88 8.13 7.15 7.15 8.53 8.53 7.19 7.19 6.88 6.88 6.82
Risk Criticalities
Final Year FY % Repl 14.03 13.52 13.49 13.37 13.37 12.74 12.74 11.98 11.04 9.68 12.65 10.91 10.91 13.37 13.23 11.47 11.47 10.53 10.53 10.79
0.75 0.75 0.81 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.72 0.72 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.72
Network FY Target BlankPerforma 3 Safety Interv nce 14.03 13.52 12.84 13.37 13.37 0.73 12.74 11.98 11.04 9.68 0.73 10.91 10.91 0.78 0.78 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.66
0.90 0.90 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1.50 1.50 3.38 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.50 2.25 1.50 2.25 1.50 1.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.50
Risk Consequences
OPEX
CAPEX
1.43 1.43 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.43 1.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.43 1.43 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Environm Blank3Year 0 ental 1.20 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
$22,252.67 $20,408.95 $14,356.75 $14,722.38 $14,722.38 $17,147.60 $17,147.60 $15,409.93 $10,852.71 $11,915.83 $10,453.42 $9,137.44 $9,137.44 $7,965.10 $7,965.10 $8,163.41 $8,163.41 $7,251.08 $7,251.08 $8,065.44
Year 10
Year 10 Year 10 % New Target Replacem Intervent Asset ent ion
Delta Risk (Fyear ∆ New)
$81,542.17 $73,455.70 $56,143.63 $51,370.16 $51,370.16 $57,068.40 $57,068.40 $52,281.30 $38,208.64 $30,104.16 $35,518.36 $28,907.61 $28,907.61 $27,792.26 $26,982.82 $29,330.41 $29,330.41 $23,080.29 $23,080.29 $28,052.45
$2,906.63 $2,906.63 $2,235.04 $2,096.75 $2,096.75 $2,669.51 $2,669.51 $2,906.63 $2,669.51 $3,024.21 $1,695.60 $2,089.59 $2,089.59 $1,134.38 $1,134.38 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $2,089.59
$80,335.41 $72,248.95 $55,016.21 $50,504.43 $50,504.43 $55,956.97 $55,956.97 $51,074.55 $37,097.21 $28,865.67 $34,825.08 $28,044.16 $28,044.16 $27,268.66 $26,459.22 $28,579.23 $28,579.23 $22,329.12 $22,329.12 $27,189.01
$81,542.17 $73,455.70 $48,869.73 $51,370.16 $51,370.16 $2,669.51 $57,068.40 $52,281.30 $38,208.64 $30,104.16 $1,695.60 $28,907.61 $28,907.61 $1,134.38 $1,134.38 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $1,840.31 $2,089.59
$1,206.76 $1,206.76 $1,127.42 $865.73 $865.73 $1,111.43 $1,111.43 $1,206.76 $1,111.43 $1,238.49 $693.28 $863.45 $863.45 $523.60 $523.60 $751.17 $751.17 $751.17 $751.17 $863.45
Health Index: now 32
7
28
6
24
5
20 4 16 3 12 2
8 4
1
0
0 0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
HI Category
7-8
8-9
9-10
10+
No Result
Projected Annual Fault Rate
Number of Assets
Y0 HI Profile - Primary Transformers
Health Index: +10 years 32
7
28
6
24
5
20 4 16 3 12 2
8 4
1
0
0 0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
HI Category
7-8
8-9
9-10
10+
No Result
Projected Annual Fault Rate
Number of Assets
Y10 HI Profile - Primary Transformers
How do we prioritise if we cant do it all?
Simple risk assessments help, but do not give a complete picture
LOW MED
HIGH
Understanding impacts of failure in financial terms allows prioritisation from a business perspective
Failure Consequences and Risk Consequence Category
Minor
Network performance
Safety
Catastrophic Financial
Environmental
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Risk Outputs Breakdown of Risk by Type and Investment Scenario $3,000,000 $2,500,000
Value of Risk
$2,000,000 $1,500,000
$1,000,000 $500,000 $0 Network Performance ($) Year 0 Risk
Safety ($)
Year 5 Risk
Repair ($)
Replace ($)
Year 5- 2% Replacement
Environment ($) Total Risk ($)
Year 5- Targeted Intervention
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CBRM – Risk Based Renewal Decisions
Interventions
3 7
CBRM maturity timeline‌
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CBRM helped Energex to justify a step increase in renewal investment
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Case Study - Orion Networks New Zealand Objective : Develop risk based renewal Planning models for all asset classes. • • • • • • • • • •
LV & HV poles 11kV OHL circuits 33 & 66kV OHL circuits 11kV circuit breakers 33 & 66kV circuit breakers LV poles LV OHL circuits LV cables 11kV cables 33 & 66kV cables
• Air break Isolators (poles) • Air break isolators (substations) • GM distribution transformers • PM distribution transformers • Regulators • Zone transformers • RTUs • Switching devices • Towers • Protection
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Asset Management Framework
Optimising the Network Risk Portfolio
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CASE STUDY - TasNetworks
CBRM 2.0 Application Architecture
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Analyse risk for a range of investment scenarios 200%
180%
Do Nothing
160%
If all new assets 1.6% Replacement (Y0 HI) 1.6% Replacement (Yn HI)
140%
1.6% Replacement (Delta Risk) Optimum replacement (7.93%) Optimum replacement (5%)
120%
Targeted Intervention
100%
80% 2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
Actual and Proposed Asset Renewal Expenditure
Avg 49.1M 41%
Avg 29.1M
Integration drives asset information quality and alignment
Field Data
CBRM Health and Risk Models
Executive reports
Next Steps Demonstration
Trial project
Implementation
Dr Paul Blackmore Director of Consulting Asia Pacific Mobile +64 21 803 881 Email paul.blackmore@eatechnology.com
Miss Pattarapat Pattarasilpvirakul (Annie) Regional Sales Manager Mobile Email
+6681 770 0748 annie.patta@eatechnology.sg
Thank you
For further information Call +64 9 9479273 or Email paul.blackmore@eatechnology.com