Innovative Energy Solutions and Evolving Markets. Growth of Renewable Energy and Impact on the Grid Angelina Galiteva, CAISO Board Member, Founder Renewables 100 Policy Institute Recife, Brazil April 4-6, 2017
Top Trends Transforming U.S. Electricity Sector • • • • • • • • • •
Coal power in decline Natural gas growing fast (bridge fuel) Renewables reaching grid parity Utilities face growing load defection Utilities getting in on solar (utility-scale, commercial and maybe rooftop) Continuing debates over rate design reforms Utilities modernizing the grid Utilities buying into storage Utilities becoming more customer-centric (prosumers are emerging) Utility business models are changing
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How might the electricity industry evolve? DER
Distribution Grid Transmission Grid
IOU/POU CCAs
Customer Integrator
Distribution Operator
Investor Owned or Public Utility IOU/POU
Transmission Operator
Transmission Operator
(CAISO)
(ITSO)
1990
Today
(IDSO)
Third Party Aggregator
Bulk Generation Future?
DER, “distributed energy resources� means distributed renewable generation resources, energy efficiency, energy storage, electric vehicles, and demand response technologies.
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Total investments per technology, 2015-40 (US$) RENEWABLES TAKE 65% OF THE $12.2 TRILLION POWER INVESTMENT TO 2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Renewable Energy Represented 65% of New US Electric Generation Capacity in 2015
Source: FERC Energy Infrastructure Update, January-December 2015
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Growth of solar PV and wind connected to the California ISO grid
2010
Solar PV
85 MW
2016 7,000 MW PV
800 MW Thermal 4,800 MW BTM
Wind
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3,309 MW
5,865 MW
CA Hydro vs. solar yearly production - 2012 through October 2015 Hydro vs. Solar Yearly Production 25,000
20,000 Through October
GWh
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2012
2013 Hydro Production
2014
2015
Solar Production
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CA Hydro vs. solar monthly production - 2012 through October 2015 Hydro vs. Solar Monthly Production 3,500
3,000
2,500
GWh
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S O 2012
2014
2013 Hydro Production
2015
Solar Production
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Oversupply and ramping: A new challenge as more renewables are integrated into the grid Typical Spring Day
Actual 3-hour ramp 12,960 MW on December 18, 2016
Curtailments occurring now Net Load 10,992 MW on March 12, 2017
CAISO Public
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Can variable energy resources provide essential reliability services to reliably operate the grid? • NERC identified three essential reliability services to reliably integrate higher levels of renewable resources – Frequency Control – Voltage Control – Ramping capability or Flexible Capacity
• Test results demonstrated the plant has the capability to provide these essential reliability services • Advancement in smart inverter technology allows VERs to provide services similar to conventional resources • VERs with the right operating characteristics are necessary to decarbonize the grid Page 10
ISO, NREL and First Solar conducted tests on a 300 MW Solar PV plant to demonstrate its operating flexibility Test
Performance
Ramping
Ramp its real-power output at a specified ramp-rate
•
Provide regulation up/down service
•
Provide reactive power support in various modes - Control a specified voltage schedule - Operate at a constant power factor - Produce a constant level of MVAR - Provide controllable reactive support (droop setting) - Capability to provide reactive support at night
Provide frequency response for low frequency and high frequency events - Control the speed of frequency response - Provide fast frequency response to arrest frequency decline
Voltage
•
Frequency
•
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The Solar PV plant responded similar to or better than conventional resources for high/low frequency events Conventional Resource
Performance
Solar PV response to high frequency
Compared to a combined cycle plant
Solar PV response to high frequency
Compared to a hydro plant
Compared to a hydro Solar PV response to low frequency plant
Events
Solar PV ability to arrest frequency decline within the inertia response timeframe (Fast frequency response)
Compared to a hydro plant
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Consumers (Prosumers) as New Energy Supply Participants Rooftop Solar and storage Electric Vehicles Consumer control Rates and grid signals help them participate Page 13
Expand Targeted Energy Efficiency and Advanced Demand Response • Flexible loads reduce renewable overbuild • EE can be targeted at specific locations but biggest impact may be on time-of-day • Automation must play a critical role • Many different market solutions including ISO’s rule allowing aggregators to bid into the wholesale market • Many potential variation to the business model for utilities and third parties Source Mark Ferron and CAISO
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Storage is a game changer • Not just batteries! • The greatest need is for longer-duration storage • Focus on value stacking, not just cost reduction
Energy Arbitrage Frequency Regulation Spin / Non-Spin Reserves Voltage Support Black Start Resource Adequacy Distribution Deferral Transmission Congestion Relief Transmission Deferral Time-of-Use Bill Management Increased PV Self-Consumption Demand Charge Reduction Backup Power
Source: Eagle Mountain Energy, Inc: http://eaglemountainenergy.net
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute. The Economics Of Battery Energy Storage: How Multi-Use, Customer-Sited Batteries Deliver The Most Services And Value To Customers And The Grid www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value
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Much greater complexity for the Transmission & Distribution grid Complex structure and coordinated set of interactions required between wholesale/transmission operations and distribution level operations for a high Distributed Energy Resource (DER) system. This complex structure is already in operation and developing in several US states and countries There are significant scaling issues that need to be addressed in a more distributed future Source: “Distribution Systems in a High DER Future: Planning, Market Design, Operation and Oversight,� Paul De Martini (Newport Consulting Group) and Lorenzo Kristov (CAISO) October 2016;
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What is the future of the electricity industry?
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