Annex 1.1 Data and Forecast Conventions

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World Bank ECA Economic Update Fall 2021

due to high levels of employment in coal-related sectors (Pisani-Ferry 2021; World Bank 2021d). In all, the impact of transition on 2030 EU GDP is estimated to range from -0.7 to 0.55 percent under various policy scenarios—highlighting the need for the appropriate mechanisms to estimate the economic impact to ensure better growth outcomes (European Commission 2020).

Despite these challenges, economies in Europe are leveraging pandemic-related support packages to ensure a greener, more sustainable recovery. In addition to the European Union’s Multiannual Financial Framework and Next Generation EU Funds, which includes sizable transfers to ECA’s Central European economies, the region has implemented or accelerated measures to boost energyefficient housing and sustainable transportation, both of which are substantial sources of carbon emissions in ECA (Bjerde 2021). To benefit fully from positive spillovers from these funding arrangements and deliver on the European Green Deal, ECA economies could put in place measures that help increase the absorption of these funds, including those that bolster technical and administrative capacity (World Bank 2021d).

The macroeconomic forecasts presented in this report are the result of an iterative process involving staff from the World Bank Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Vice-Presidency; country teams; regional and country offices; and the Europe and Central Asia Chief Economist’s Office. This process incorporates data, macroeconometric models, and judgment.

Data

The data used to prepare the country forecasts come from a variety of sources. National income accounts, balance of payments, and fiscal data are from Haver Analytics; the World Bank’s World Development Indicators; and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook, Balance of Payments Statistics, and International Financial Statistics. Population data and forecasts are from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects. Country and lending group classifications are from the World Bank. In-house databases include commodity prices, data on previous forecast vintages, and country classifications. Other internal databases include high-frequency indicators—such as industrial production, consumer price indexes, housing prices, exchange rates, exports, imports, and stock market indexes—based on data from Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s analytical housing price indicators, the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics, and the IMF’s International Financial Statistics. Aggregate growth for the world and all subgroups of countries (such as regions and income groups) is calculated as the gross domestic product–weighted average (in average 2010–19 prices) of country-specific growth rates. Income groups are defined as in the World Bank’s classification of country groups.