1.7 Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index in Sub-Saharan Africa

were hospitalized had severe disease during the Omicron-led wave, compared to 63 percent during the Delta-led wave. The peak number of hospitalizations during the fourth wave was nearly 60 percent of the peak during the third wave. The percentage of people in the hospital with COVID-19 who died during the Omicron wave was about 10 percent, compared to 26 percent during the Delta wave.8

African authorities have largely steered clear of tightening restrictions in response to the Omicron wave of the pandemic. This is clearly illustrated in recently released survey-based data that gauge business conditions in manufacturing and services. The composite PMI for selected African countries shows that market conditions pointed to expansions during the Omicron wave, as opposed to contractions during the Delta wave (mid-2021) and the initial lockdowns (April-May 2020).9 Averaging across countries in the region with data available shows that the PMI was about 52 during the Omicron wave, compared to 48 during the Delta wave and 36 at the height of the lockdowns in 2020 (figure 1.7).10 The contraction of economic activity during the Delta wave was mainly attributed to downturns in AFE countries—as opposed to AFW countries with available PMI data that registered an expansion. The PMI for all AFE and AFW countries registered an expansion during the Omicron wave.11 These differences in the gauge of manufacturing and services partly reflect the greater community mobility in AFW.

Community mobility in Sub-Saharan African countries also points to a smaller economic impact from the latest wave of COVID-19 infections compared to previous waves (say, Delta- and Betaled ones). High-frequency data suggest that mobility remains strong in Sub-Saharan Africa— well above its pre-pandemic level despite the spread of the Omicron variant and (regular and/ or extreme) climatic shocks (figure 1.8). For example, community mobility toward retail and recreation places (say, restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and

FIGURE 1.7: Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index in Sub-Saharan Africa Manufacturing and services continued 60 expanding during the Omicron wave. 55 50 45 40 35 30 2018/01 2018/05 2018/09 2019/01 2019/05 2019/09 2020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 Source: Haver Analytics. Note: The graph reports the average Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) index of the following countries: Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia. The monthly PMI data are seasonally adjusted, and values that exceed 50 represent an expansion in economic activity. The shaded areas represent the start of lockdowns to contain the spread of the pandemic (April-May 2020) and the periods around the peaks of the Delta (June-July 2021) and Omicron (November-December 2021) waves of the pandemic.

8 NICD (2022). 9 The group of Sub-Saharan African countries with monthly data on the composite PMI includes Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia. 10 PMI values above (below) 50 represent an expansion (contraction) in economic activity. 11 Moreover, the PMI values were highest for Nigeria and Kenya during the most recent wave (56.4 and 53.7, respectively, in December 2021), while they were lowest for

Uganda and South Africa during the Delta-led wave (34.6 and 46.1, respectively, in July 2021).