A.15 PASSENGER ELECTRIC MOBILITY IN TAJIKISTAN

Country Typology

Vehicle fleet composition: Car dominant

Net oil trading status: Importer

Relative cost of vehicles: Low

Country Background

The transportation system in Tajikistan is dominated by cars (OICA 2020). Electricity is primarily generated from renewable sources of energy, notably hydropower (93.5 percent), with the balance coming from coal (6.5 percent).1 The country has yet to develop an electric vehicle road map and policy incentives to foster electric vehicle adoption (Grütter and Kim 2019). Tajikistan will need specific policy incentives to address the issues of high up-front cost, limited charging infrastructure, and lack of awareness (Development Asia 2019). The power sector in Tajikistan is highly subsidized. As a result, electricity tariffs are low, leading to excessive usage of electricity and other inefficiencies (UNECE 2017). Recently, the government approved exemptions on value added tax and import duties for electric vehicles, for a limited allowance of 100 units of passenger electric vehicles during 2020.2 With international support, the government is gradually implementing some electric mobility projects in the country. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has provided an investment grant for the introduction of an electric off-wire electric trolleybus for a 15-kilometer route (Leeder et al. 2021).

Overall Messages

Unusually for a car-dominated country, Tajikistan presents quite favorable conditions for electric mobility, particularly because of the very low cost of vehicles, as well as the country’s status as an oil importer (figure A.15.1a). Electrification of transportation looks to be economically viable overall (table A.15.1) because of the fact that electric four-wheel vehicles are already cheaper (and thus more affordable) to purchase than their conventional counterparts (table A.15.3), offering modest life-cycle cost advantages of almost 3 percent (figure A.15.1b). Electric buses, by contrast, still cost about twice as much to purchase as diesel buses (table A.15.3), with life-cycle cost advantages closer to 2 percent (figure A.15.1b).

The externality benefits of electric mobility in Tajikistan are relatively modest for four-wheelers, but quite substantial for buses (figures A.15.1c and A.15.1d). Otherwise, fuel cost savings are the main advantage associated with electric mobility. Given a fiscal regime that taxes gasoline and diesel by 20–40 percent, while subsidizing electricity by 80 percent, these fuel cost savings are further accentuated in financial terms (figure A.15.1c). This makes the overall case for electric mobility in Tajikistan much better in financial than in economic terms (figure A.15.1a).

The total investment needs associated with the 30×30 scenario amount to US$3.2 million per year by 2030 (or 0.03 percent of Tajik gross domestic product). Close to half of the investment relates to the incremental capital cost of vehicles and charging infrastructure incurred by the private sector, and much of the remainder is public investment in public infrastructure charging stations (figure A.15.2a). Given that implicit carbon prices associated with electric four-wheelers in Tajikistan are strongly negative (table A.15.3), there is significant scope to cover 60–80 percent of the incremental private and public investments associated with electric four-wheelers through carbon financing arrangements (figure A.15.2b).

The overall economic case for electric mobility in Tajikistan is favorable (table A.15.2). This finding is robust to more conservative assumptions about the cost of batteries (“scarce minerals” scenario) and the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (“fuel efficiency” scenario), and only improves with further decarbonization of the power sector (“green grid” scenario). On a positive note, the emerging advantage associated with electrification of buses can be as much as doubled through the more efficient procurement and operation of vehicles (“efficient bus” scenario), and the case for electric four-wheelers is greatly strengthened when it comes to taxi fleets and other intensively used vehicles (“taxi fleet” scenario). Tajikistan is unusual in that the case for electric mobility is primarily driven by four-wheelers, with potential for electric buses to also play a role.

Figures and tables start on the next page.

Figures and Tables

FIGURE A.15.1 Advantage of EV adoption in Tajikistan, by type of vehicle

a. Cost advantage: Typology benchmarking b. Cost advantage: Vehicle type

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data in this figure represent the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario minus the 30×30 scenario (averages over fleet additions). The BAU scenario assumes that no policy target will be imposed for electric vehicles and that vehicle purchase decisions will continue to reflect historical trends. The 30×30 scenario assumes that sales of electric cars and buses will reach 30 percent, and of two- and three-wheelers, 70 percent, by 2030. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; CO2 = carbon dioxide; EV = electric vehicle; NOx = nitrogen oxides; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; SOx = sulfur oxides.

TABLE A.15.1 Cost advantage of accelerated EV adoption in Tajikistan, 2030

Source: World Bank.

Note: Heading colors: blue = excluding taxes and subsidies, gray = fiscal wedge, green = including taxes and subsidies. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; “Local externalities” comprises local (NOx, PM10, SOx) air pollution costs. “Global externalities” comprises global (CO2) air pollution costs. CO2 = carbon dioxide; NOx = nitrogen oxides; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; SOx = sulfur oxides. Red and parentheses indicate negative value.