Сравнительные оценки бедности by World Bank Russia

ВСЕМИРНЫЙ БАНК

СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ БЕДНОСТИ

Документ Всемирного банка Информационный центр в России

бедность

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3. 14

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HeKoTopble KjiIOmeBbIe 3JIeMeHTb1 TeopeTH-ieCK4X OCHOB B3RI epHCTCKOro noAxoja OCBelt1aKOTCS COBpeMeHHOr4 MHKpO3KOHOMii,-ieCKOA TeOpHeM, 14Ha 3Ty TeMy ony6nHKoBaH PA;t 2 HenijIOXHX pa6oT . CyTblo qaHHOFO noqxola sqBJIeTCs1 KOHLCrILUHAs "a'za6encmea npeanozimenufi Haoi mo6apaMu", KOTOpaS 06bl'HO npeICTasBJWeTCA "4yHKLUHeH 4aKTOpOB roIne3HOCTH", 3Ha'4eHHe oueHKH 6a3o0u AAS CTaTHCTHHeCKOH aOCTaTOqHOI iBJI5ieTCS KaK CMIHTaeTCA, KOTOPOU, TOrO HnH HHOFO HenoBeKa. Cor.iacHo 3TOMy nogxoy, baKTopbi nonIe3HOCTH ABJSAIOTCA OCHOBOH COLJHUMbHbIX npeaHnOTeHHM4, BKJIO'aSI CpaBHHTenJbHbie OUeHKH 6e)HocTH. 6narococTo.qHHm AaHHblIi

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(B noAxoo4ax, BKjinOHIaeT B ce6A KaK "a6ConIoTHyIo TOBapHy1o aenpHBaULmo opHeHTHPOBaHHbIX Ha nHTaHme, HnH B ApyrHx noaxogax, 6a3HpyfonIHxcA Ha "OCHOBHbIX 3THX

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(CM.,

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HanpHMep,

Townsend,

1979).

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Soublmume

OnaCeHHA Bbl3blBaeT npucyuas 3TUM rIoAxogaM HpOH3BOJIbHOCTb B OnpIeaeJeHUHH TOrO, KaKHe HMeHHO TOBapbl MmelOT 3HaHeHHe H (ecnH 3TO HeO6XoAHMo) KaK mX cnieAyeT OLueHHBaTb iapyr OTHOCHTeSJbHO

2 3 4

apyra.

nOTpe6HTeJnefH OnHCaHa B 6Onml-rHHCTBe 6osiee o6o6LueHHbIx pa6oT no 3KOHOMHKe Hen.noxoe IpeacTaBTjeHHe o 6o0iee "npoY,BHHyTbIx" TeopHMlX H MeToqax MO)KHO HauiTH B pa6oTe Deaton and Muellbauer (1980). COOTBeTCTBYIOLiHe npHMepbi H CCEUIKH 6YDYT nPiBeaeCHbl B nocneflJo1LuHx pa3genax. CM., HanPiHMep, ILO (1976) H Streeten et al. (1981). TeopHiA nOBegeHHr

,OBOJIbHO OpHrHHaSbHYIO KOHUenUHIO, KOTOpaA 3a11HwaeT HeB3JIIepHCTCKHe CpaBHHTejibHbIe oHeHKH, HO He 3aBHCHT Hen1OCpegCTBeHHO OT KOHTPOJI3 3a noTpe6HTejibcKHMH TOBapaMH, npeTno1cHA CeH (Sen, 1980, 1985, 1987). CeH OTBepraeT "none3HOCTb" KaK nOKa3aTeAb 6narococTOAHHA H OAHOBpeMeHHO oTBepraeT HeB3nIeepHCTCKHe, OCHOBaHHbEe Ha

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1987, p. 25),

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HanpHMep, cM. Sen (1979) U KOMMeHTapHH Ng (1981). TaiKoe CM. Sen (1987) H HPHBeCeHHble TaM Ke KOMMeHTapHH PaBi KaH6ypa (Ravi Kanbur) H AWOHa Mto3ju6ay3pa (John Muellbauer). IlpuMeHeHue iRaHHOrO noaxoaa B KOHTeKCTe rocygapCTBeHHOi IOJIU4THKH B o6nacTH 6opb6bl c ronogoM CM. Drfeze and Sen (1989), a TaKBce KOMMeHTapHH B pa6oTe Ravallion (1992c). TaKioe CM. Anand and Ravallion (1993).

KaK cneWye-r u3 pa6oTbi Arrow (1963), 3TO OAUH 13 BaxKHeriwH4x ypOKOB H3yTeHHqi KpynHblX pa6oT no TeOpHH colIUaIBHoro Bbi6opa. CM., HanpHmep, Sen (1979). OaHHM H3 6JIarogaTHhIx noneriReTenbHOCTH AnS TaKOti pa6oTbi HBJIAIOTCA1 HopMaTiBHbUC rocyaapCTBeHHble (4HHaHCbl; o6cyj,AeHHe OCHOBHblIX TeOTepHqecKHX BOfPOCOB 4 CCbIJIKH MOA(HO HaHTH B pa6oTax Atkinson and Stiglitz (1980) H Newbery and Stern (1987). 3a nocneauHe aeCATb neT B3n4epHcTcKHe MeToqbi OHeHKH

Bce )Ke npeanpHHHMajucb; CM., HanpIMep, ripenlHOjO)KeHH9

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o6wec-rBeHHoro 6JlarococToqHHR nepe?KUiBaJnH 6ypHoe pa3BHTHe; Ba)KHblUi BKnaa B 3To aeno BHeciIH TaKHe pa6oTbl, KaK King (1983) H Jorgenson and Slesnick (1984). 9

HaripHMep, aBTOp oRHOR 3KcnepHMeHTallbHOi pa6OTe B o6nacTu ncHXojiorHH cgenan npeanoiioAeHHe o lUpOKOUi paBCpOCTpaHeHHOCTH 4UcCCoHaHca C03HaHHA". JIIOUm HHoraa CTaJHKHBalOTCS C npOTHBOpe4aWHMH Apyr ,pyry Ha6jiIoAeHHSMH 0 HHX CaMHx, AeMOHCT1UHPHy npH 3TOM noBegeHHe, KOTOpOe 3KOHOMHCT Ha3BaJI 6bl "HppanHoHaJIbHbrM"; 6o0iee noapo6Ho CM. Akerlof (1984).

H HeOrpaHHqeHHOrl paiUOHaHbJHOCTH HCjib3Si onpeAejieHHO yTBep)KaTb, 'TO COiLHaJ[bHbli BbI6op MeCTO AOJIXKCH 6blTb OCHOBaH MOJbKO Ha 4IaKTOpaX noJIe3HOcTH: HanpHMep, MoAKeT HMeTE cepbe3Hblri KOH(bJIHKT Me)Ky 3THM npHHLUHnIOM H TaKHMH LueHHEIMH COUHBanbHbIMH 4aKTOpaMw, KaK JIH'qHaS cBo6oJa (Sen,

1970). pa3JiHql4A Ha OIxeHKH

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CornacHo Tobin (1970), 3TO HHorfaa Ha3blBalOT "KoHKpeTHbIM 3rajH4TapH3MOM" B oTnH4te OT "o6utero 3rariHTapH3Ma". B KaxqecTBe npUmepOB MO)KHO npUBeCTH MHoroqmcJieHHBie nOnbITKUi OUCHHTE, CTeneH6 He40OCTaTOtHocTH nHTaHHA (B qacTHOCTH, B pa3BHBsaLHXCAS CTpaHaX). OAHaKo, paCCMaTpHBaeMbiH accopTHmeHT TOBaPOB Mo)KeT 6brTB ropa3,o ulwpe, qeM cneKTp npoQYKTOB nHTaHHR; CM., HanpHMep, pa6oTy Townsend (1979), aBTOPOM KOTOpOUi npeluowKeH MeToa oUeHKH MacHWTa6oB 6eRHoCTH B COeuImHeHHOM KoponeBcTBe. CpaBHeHHe o6LUefi 3raJiHTapHO11 KOHiLenLiHH 6eRHocTm C KOHKpCTHOri 3raJiHTapHoH KOHilenuHeri (B KOHTeKCTe oueHOK 6eAHocTH B COeuHHeHHOM KopoJTeBCTBe) CM. B pa6oTe Slesnick (1990a). IO3TOMy "TeHeBbie tIeHbl" 3aqacTyio 6onee npernoqTHTejibHbl, qeM 4aKTHuiecKue ateHbM; xopoweru pa6oTori Ha 3Ty TeMy ArnBieTci Drfeze and Stern (1987). O0HaKo aOCTaToqHo HHopMaTHBHoe "taCTHqHoe ynopmaoieHime" B03MO)KHO H 6e3 ABHoro arperHpoBaHHA; HanpHMep, o6cy)CzeHHe aalHHoO Bonpoca npHMeHHTeJIbHO K oueHKe 6narococToAHHs Ha OCHOBe Bo3Mo)KHocTerl MO)KHO HaRTH B pa6oTe Sen (1985a). YCSIOBHA ynOpHgo0leHHR MHo)KeCTBeHHbIx nepeMeHHbIx n1pu HCqHcJIeHHH HeH3BeCTHoH 1YHKUHH 3TUX nepemeHHbIx BbIBOAATCR B pa6oTe Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982). MbM BepHeMCS K paccMOTpeHI1O 3TOrO Bonpoca B Pa3,ejie 2.7.

YqTO B ARaHHOM ciyqae HcKiHomeHHS H3 npaBHjia npenXHOMTHTenfbHOrO HCnOJIb3oBaHHs pblHOqHbIX iAeH rlpH oueHKe AOJ1X(HbI 6blTb paCnpOCTpaHeHbl gOCTaTO4HO WIHpOKO. rlpenoj1o*KHM, HanpHMep, YTO nipo6jeMa 6eAHOCTTH BOJIHyeT Hac nOTOMy, YTO Mbl o6ecnoKoeHbl peanjH3auHH OAHaKo,

npaBa 6eRHbIX Ha y'acTHe B o6uxecTBeHHoA )KKH3HH, a 3To npaBO BCCbMa CHJIbHO 3aBHCHT OT AOXOAOB - B qaCTHOCTH, eHec)KHbiX ROXOjOB. Paccyx<as TaKHM o6pa3oM, Mbi He TOJIbKO oT'aeM uperno'qTeHHe gOXOAaM, HO H, B03MO)KHO, 3aXOTHM B3BCCHTb pa3JHlIHbie KOMnOHeHTbI IAOXOJROB He TaK, KaK 3TO xenaeTcA o6bltIHO; HanpHMep, Roxoq, nlOjy'qeHHbIH OT rocy;apCTBa 4ejiOBeKOM,

ce6e HeKoe COLuaHjbHOe KierHMO, Mo)KeT nHOTH He OKa3aTb HHKaKOrO nojio)KHTenjbHorO BJIHAHH1I Ha ero B03MO)KHOCTb y'aCTBOBaTL B )KH3HH o6iuecTBa (Atkinson, Ha

HOCsAUHri

1991). B

paMKax

OrpaHH'ieHHMX

HpaKTHKH

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MoKeT

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MHo)KeCTBO

HH4)OpMaUHH 0 )KH3HeHHOM ypOBHe. O0HaKO HeKOTOple Ba)KHbie acnexTbi 6narococTosIH14 (KaK C B3nI14epUCTCKOH, TaK 14 C HeB3#epHCTCKOA TOHeK 3peHHS[) He HaHRyT cBoero oTpaBKeHHS B 3TOM

noKa3aTeiie. 3To yKa3blBaeT Ha HeO6xogi4MOCTb AO1O7JIHeHHS OueHOK 6egHOCTH, OCHOBaHHbIX Ha pacnpeAeneHHH

rpy6orl

epOpMe)

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aKae

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2.2

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ii) EOuuuzja Ha6m6enuR:

EA Mo)xeT ABJISTbCS

aOMOX03XHCTBO HJIH OTJ4eJIbHbie ero

o6bItIHO noapa3yMeBaIoT rpynny JIHLI, nfHTalOHIHXCA H )KHBYWUHX BMeCTe, XOTS 3TO onpeejeneHHe nOpOH He pa6OTaeT; HanpHMep, B paHiOHax AFPHKH K iory OT Caxapbl (CaxeIb) o6UHHHoe npO)KHBaHHc MeCTHOrO HaceCJeHHSI B "KOMnayHgaX" 3aTpy,RHIleT 'iJeHbI.

HIOA ",OMOXo3sAHCTBOM"

OT,ejieHHe OfHOrO ",4oMOX03ArICTBa" OT apyroro I5. EOf6bmHHCTBO o6cJneaOBaHHri AOMOX03AACTB npeAycmaTPHBaiOT c6op HeKOTOPbIX aaHHb1X o6 oTaejTEHbix ero 'neHax , XOTS K TaKHM AaHHbIM peRKO OTHOCASTCS o6feMbw HX HHR1HBHyanbHOrO noTpe6neHHM, KOTOpble o6bli'Ho arperHpyfoTcs IsA onpegeneHHA o6beMa norpe6J1eHUIA aoMoXo3sIiHCTBa B UeniOM ; npHMepaMH TaKHX o6cneAoBaHH ABJISI3OTCAl HaLUOHajibHbie Bb16OpO'qHble o6cneaoBaHHsi (NSS) B HH,QHH, HaiLHOHaBJbHbie COLAHanbHO-3KOHOMH1IeCKHe o6c.neAoBaHH3 (SUSENAS) B FIHJXOHe3HH,

(LSMS)

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iii) qlucmo na6A1ooenuUi 3a onpee]enmUHbliU nepuob 6peMeeHu: 'Iaue Bcero 6epeTcs OAHOKpaTHbilH "nonepelIHbliH cpe3" HaCeIeHHUs, OCHOBaHHbIlH Ha OgHOM HuH IByX onpocax. B psA;e CTpaH npOBOaHJIHCb TaK Ha3b1BaeMbie "rlpOJ4OJIbHbie" o6cneaoBaHHs (TaK Ha3blBaeMbie "fnoHejibHbIe" o6cJIegoBaHHA ), nIpH KOTOpEJX OQAHO H TO AKe ,MOMOX03SIiCTBO HeO,XHOKpaTHO ofipauHBJa1OCb

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nepmoga BpeMeHH. JJBYMA XOpOIlO BlH1OIIHeHHOe MHx4HraHCKHM YHHBePCHTeTOM "rpynnoBoe JROXO,IOB B CIHA" H npOBOaHBiiieeCS Ha npoTSDKeHHH 10 nieT

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1989). IlpoBo4IrncA TaKxce psAA aonrocpO'HbIX o6cJieaOBaHHrI no c6opy RaHHbIX o6 o6feMax noTpe6neHHI

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CO BpeMeHeM

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HeKOTOpbIX npeHMyUleCTB IPOJaORbHOFO o6cne,ioBaHHs 1 6 .

iv)

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B ce6s

2aOxo0bi, a 6ouibmlnHcTBO o6cnegoBaHHH ,9OMOX03AHCTB, fpOBOAHMbIX AMepHKe, Hao6opoT, He y4HTbIBalOT o6beM noTpe6JieHHA).

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1SA nOjiy-ieHHSI gaHHbix, npeACTaBHTeabHO9 AJ,f3 TOHi HnH 14HOH0 OQLHOMoMeHTHbie nonepelIHbie Bbi6opKI4 , nfpH KOTOpblX e,HHHLjeH Ha6JHoueHHLA qBJ]AeTCS JOMOXO3AHCTB0, a gaHHble co6HpalOTCsi nH6o o Aoxoaax, nH6o o6 o67beMe noTpe6JIeHHM. TaKaA 4opMa o6cneaoBaHAs Tpe6yeT meHMllHX IHHaHCOBbMX 3aTpaT B pacxieTe Ha OaHO o6c.rexyeMoe AOMOXO3SAHCTBO no cpaBHeHHIO C 6ojELLHHCTBoM aRJ6TepHaTHBHblIX cTpaHbl,

Hauie

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CM. Scott (1980), UN (1989) H Rosenhouse (1989).

Pamllwrnbie apryMeHTbl 3a H npOTHB c6opa AaHHbIX no rpynnam onpauimaeMbmx H3JTo7KCHEI B pa6oTe Ashenfelter et al., (1986).

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(Hun)

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npegcTaBHTeJnb Bbi6OpKH -

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Bbi6OpKa SIBjiSeTCS cCny4aHiHoH, TO co6paHHbie XjaHHble OCHOBe Bbi6opoHHbIX o6cneROBaHHA. ECuJ KOTOPblX HaXO 4HTCA HH)Ke HeKOTOpOrO nOTpe6JIeHHS muoaerl, o6ieM RoJIs (HanpHMep,

onpeaeneHHoro ypOBHA) He cMeLueHbI H 3aqacTyIo HMeIOT 'IeTKO onpeaeneHHoe ( 'aiue

Bcero

HOpMajibHOe) pacnpeAeeneHHe. OxRHaKo o6cuIeAOBaHHAx:

6eAHbie

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Bceraa HX

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o6pa3oM Mo)KeT

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HX KOMeBbIM o6pa3oM

KH3HH.

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B ger1CTBHTeJThHOCTH o6cneqOBaHHe

Boo6Ce npOITYCKaTb OXHy, pe3KO BbiAeXASIOIyOCSA cpeAH ApyrHX, - 6e3,ROMHbIx. KpoMe TOrO, HeKOTOPbEe Hcnojib3yeMbIe AnS OLeHKH HMeHHO nozrpynny 6eAHbix, a boMOxo3JwCmf6

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6eAHOcTH o6cneAoBaHHA He 6blur

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=51 3TOH L enJI B TOM cMbIc.ne, 41To

UX CHCTeMa Bbi6OpKU He 6bEna paCC4lTaHa Ha oxBaT Bcero HacenieHH4: B Ka4ecTBe np[HMepOB MO)KHO npiHBeCTH o6cnegoBaHHII pa6oTaioueg IaCTH HaceIieHHS (LUMpOKO MHCfoI0b3yeMbie ARA Bbi6opKH o6bpiHO CHCTeMa B KOTOPbIX AMepMKe), B JIaTMHCKOM 6eAHOcTu OLAeHKM orpaHHHMBaeTCS

"3KOHOMwHeCKH

aKTHBHbIM

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HTO

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Heo6xOl4HMO 3agaTb ce6e HeKOTOpbie noiarpynnbi 6eaHAKOB. IlpM npOBeaeHHH o6cnerOBaHHs4 6 Bbi opKH (HcxO;xHblii OCHOBa HCnOJIb3yeMaS JIM HO3BojHieT BOnpOCbl: OCHOBHbie cJIeyowuHe CriHCOK HaceiieHHMS (HiU ROMOXO35H4CTB), H3 KOTOpOFO aeuiaeTcs3 Bbl6OpKa) OXBaTHTb BCe 6 HaceiieH4e? I4MeeTcs JIH BePOATHOCTb CMEIeLCeHHSI pe3ylIbTaTOB, T. e. BePOATHOCTb TOrO, UTo BbI op peCi1OHfaeHTOB He 6yAeT CnyaaH6Hb1M?

HerLTioXHM BBeReHHeM B MeTrOAI BBi6OpKH ABJIAeTCA pa6oTa Levy and Lemeshow (1991). TalxKe CM. peKOMeHaIUHH, JaHHbIe B pa6oTax UN (1989) H Scott (1992). 10

CyiijeCTBy1OT

pa3JnHqHbie

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(cepHAHas)

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6y,qy paCCMaTpHBaTb. 3TH BOnpOCEb ,1OCTaTOqHO xopouio npopa6oTaHbl ,apyrHMH aBTopami4 9 . ACHO OLAHO: npH CpaBHHTeCJbHOM aHJanH3e 6eqHocTH Heo6xofAlMO 3HaTb H yq4HTbIBaT Bce 3HatiHTeJlbHbie

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B TOM

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npOH3BeCgeHHbIX B JUIqHOM noaco6HOM Xo3suiCTBe,

a TaKWRe CTOHMOCTb 3aHHMaeMOro

XKHnISb2 0 . AHanorHMHblIM o6pa3oM JIOXORbl qOJDKHbI BKJUoMaTb B ce6s Bce HOCTYrIJICHHA B HaTypaJRbHOM Bblpa)KeHHH. MeCTHbie PbIHOqHbie UCHbI 3a'acTylo IBJIAIOTCS

BJIatenjbLUeM

18 19

HecMOTps Ha 3TO Heo6xogHMo 3HaTh HOpMbl BbI6OpKH ARS npaBHJEbHorO B3BeIIIHBaHHA oUeHKIH TOrO HuIH HHoro counojiorHqecKoro noKa3aTeJIA. CM. pa6oTy Scott (1980), B KOTOpOri aaeTcA o630p 3THX BOnpOcoB. CM. TaKie UN (1989). Bonpocbi pa3pa6oTKH fopMbi aHKeT ocBeItueHEI B pa6oTax Grootaert (1986), Ainsworth and van der Gaag (1988) H Demery et al. (1992). OpraHH3auHoHHo-nnaHoBble BonpoCbJ npoBeqeHHA o6cnfigoBaHHri aHJanI3HuPYOTCs B pa6oTe Delaine et al. (1992), a BOHpOCEl o6pa6oTKH pe3yJTbTaTOB o6cneAoBaHHA - B pa6oTe Hill and Marchant (1992). Bonee noApo6noe onpeAeneHHe nOHATHii "nOTpe6neH4A" H ",ROXO,OB" B o6ciieaoBaHMAx JIOMOX03JRfcTB aaeTcs B pa6oTe UN (1989). FIpHMepbi oiLuH6OK B oueHKax, KOTOpbIC MOryT BKpagElBaTbCA B gaHHbie 0 ceMerlHoM noTpe6neHHH, a TaKoKe cTenelHb HX Bo3Mo)xHoro BJIH3SHHS Ha nofly4aeMble Ha OCHOBe 3THX AaHHbIX BbIBQflbI PaCCMaTPHBaIOTCS B ciieMCiouHx pa6oTax: van de Walle (1988) (nOCBAiueHa HH,OHe3HrCKOMY o6cnemOBaHHwo SUSENAS), Gautamn (1991) (nlOCBAweHa aaHHbIM, nlOIyqeHHhlM ICRISAT) H Demery and Grootaert (1992) (nOCBAlueHa o6cneAOBaHHio LSMS B KOT-,q' HByape).

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pEIHO'IHbie ueHbl. HepbEIHOHbiLe TOBapib npeACTaBJIASOT co6og 6onee cepbe3Hy1o npo6neMy, H B yqeHbIX Kpyrax HH OAHH MeTOT O1ieHKH HX CTOHMOCTH He nojnb3yeTCM IIHPOKHM npernHOTeHHeM. OAHa H3 o6iHx npo6.neM, HaCeiieHHM H HcnOJn3yYIOULHM

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3HaTb elie H o6beM npOH3BOACTBa npOZYKTOB nHTaHHMI BHYTPH CeMbH. BblHrpaeT HnH npoHrpaeT CeMbA B pe3ynJbTaTe TOrO HJIH HHOrO H3MeHeHHM UeHbl Ha npOAOBOJIbCTBeHHbIe TOBapbl, B 3Ha'IHTeJRbHOA CTeneHH 3aBHCHT OT TOrO, KaKylO AOJIIO B ceMeHHOM nOTpe6JieHHH 3aHHMalOT npoAyKTEi nHTaHHM co6cTBeHHoro nPOH3BOaCTBa (npHMepbl npHBOaqTCq B Pa3aene 3.7). O0RHaxo cnHjoIub H p3iaOM o6cne;iOBaHHA ceMeM B CejibCKHX pa OHax nH6O Boo6Me He BKniiOHaIOT B ce6A

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HCHOJIEb3OBaTb B KwHiCTBe nOKa3aTeJiq YPOBRA XKH3HH TeKylIUHA o6feM 22 . )OXOJbi 6erHbix 'acTo H3MeHSIOTCA BO BpeMeHH BnOJ1He He TeKyiu4e UOXOAbl npeACKa3yeMbiM (a HHoraa H BeCbMa HenpeIWKa3yeMbiM) o6pa3oM; nTo oco6eHHo cnpaBeBJU1HBO B OTHouIleHHH cna6opa3BHTEIX arpapHbIX CTpaH, 3aBHCA1UUIX OT CBoerO 3emSegenHA, He

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Flpo6neMu y'eTa rocyxRapCTBeHHbIX HeaeHe)KHbIx IbrFOT H npHBHJnerHHI B CILIA paccMoTpeHbl B pa6oTe iJS pa3BHBalOIUHXCSI cTpaH, Smeeding (1977). MHe He H3BeCTHbi aHaJiOrHqHble CpaBHHTeJTbHbliC OleHKH OAIHaKO cJIe1yeT OTMeTHTb, xITO pa3Mep rOCyAapCTBeHHbIX TpaHC(bepT - KaK B a6conIoTHoM HCqHCjieHHH, Tal H B COoTHOuIeHHH C AOXOIaaMH - B 6eAHbix cTpaHax o6bl4HO MeHbwe, 'eM B 6o0nee 6oraTlx.

LJpyraA IP1H'IHHa CB313aHa C UIHpOKO pacnpocTpaHeHHblM (B3J#epHCTCKHM) nOne3HOCTb HanpAMyIo 3aBHCHT OT noTpe6jleHHA, a He OT qOXO,4OB (Pa3aen

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OBo0aa 3a H npOTHB npeAno'qTHTeYIbHoro HCnOJIb3OBaHHs JIOXO0IOB B Ka'eCTBe Mepfl 6narococToBHHA ; CM. Atkinson (1991). ARBa HeB3J14XepHCTCKHX

c6epeweHHA H pa3 eneHHe PHCKOB Mex)y HineHaMH o6WHHbI. 3To oKa3bIBaeT ABOAKOe BJIHAHHe i) TeKYWHH o6'beM noTpe6JieHHA nOHTH BO Bcex ciyiaAx 6yaeT

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HO ii) TeKyiuHH o6fteM noTpe6neHHs MO)KeT TaKXCe ABJIATLCSA HeHiiOXHM roIKa3aTejiem ooopemeuuoeo 6iiarOcocTosHHs, nOCKOJIbKy OH HO3BOJS1eT noIIy'iaTb aaHHbie o aoxoAax B ApyrHe npownmibe H 6yayuHe nePHo01bl BpeMeHH. O)AHaKo pSAa caKTopoB nOKa3aTenjeM COIJHanJbHOrO

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TOH{HOCTb TaK)KCe 3aBHCHT OT TOFO, KaK pa3nfHHHbie HOKa3aTejiH YPOBHS1 )KH3HH paHXKHpYIOT pa3Hbie

OAHH MOMeHTHbIH nOKa3aTeJTb MO)KeT B MeHbIlleH CTelieHH KOJle6aTbCq BOKpyr AOJIrOBpeMeHHOrO )KH3HeHHOrO ypOBHs, '-leM pyrOH, HO npH 3TOM He OTpawaKTb 3Ha lHMbiX OcO6eHHOCTei pa3HIIHHbIX ceMeH. 3To O3HamaeT, 'ITO noKa3aTeJIb, KOTOpbIlH MeHbUle nOqBep>KeH jrfcYKTyaLAHH BOKpyr AOirOBpeMeHHOrO YPOBHA ACH3HH a1JSI nio6oA aaHHOH ceMbIH, He o6sI3aTeJIbHo ,RaeT HaHnyimHe pe3yJIETaTbL llpH OIIpeaeJeHHH XpOHH'ieCKHX 6eAHIKOB B paMKaX AaHHOrO nonepezrHoro cpe3a o6uAecTBa. (3ToT nocneAHHH Bonpoc 6onee noqpO6HO pacCMaTpHBaeTcA B ceMbH:

Pa3,aene 3.2.) HeKoTopbi6e H3 BbEiueynOMAHyTbIX npo6neM OUeHKH 6narocOcTOAHHM

OKa3bIBalOT BJIHAHHe

Ha HJ1aHHPOBaHHe o6cne,iaOBaHHri . rlOCKOJIbKy MHOrHe CeJlbCKHe 6eaHAKH XKHBYT B YCJIOBHAX ce3OHHOCTH, XOXORbl 3a BeCEb roa 6yayT jiyuile oTpa)KaTb WKH3HeHHbiH YPOBeHb arpapHbIX CeMeH, qeM, CKa)KCeM, aOXO0Eb6 3a OTHH KBapTan. OaHaKO BocriOMHHaHHS 3aMeTHO Bbipa)KeHHOi

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H Ha HHX BPSA JIH MO)KHO nonaraTbcA rpH onpeie.)eHHH TaKHM o6pa3oM, KaK y)Ke 6blJIO CKa3aHO Bblwe, nIOTpe6JIeHHe HaHnyimu4HM nOKa3aTenjeM 6niarocOcTOsHHA. TuaTenSbHoe nHJaHHPOBaHHe

IOXOAOB.

AHaJiH3 3TorO BOllpOCa B pamiax Me)KBpeMeHHOU MOeJIUth rIoTpe6YIeHHs MO)KHO HaHTH B pa6oTe Blundell and Preston (1991).

XopoIUMU npUHMepaMH

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pa6oT npMmeHHTenjbHO

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cJie)Io'wiHe ny6rnmKanuH: Deaton (1991), Bhargava and Ravallion (1991), Townsend (1990) H Ravallion and Chaudhuri (1992). HeKOTOpEie H3 3THX BOllpOCOB o6cyxwalOTCs B pa6oTax Grootaert and Cheung (1985) H Scott and Amenuvegbe (1990). 13

TaK)Ke MOwKeT cnoco6CTBoBaTb noBbi,iieHHIO TO0HOCTH oileHKH noTpe6YieHHsI. KaK npaBuo, 6onee TOqHbie o11eHKH MO2KHO nOnyqHTb nyTemM aanTHpOBaHS yMeTHoro nepHoAa K macToTe ripHo6peTeHHS TOrO HnH HHOrO KOHKpeTHOrO BHUa TOBapOB; 4JTq rlpOAOBO11bCTBeHHbIX o6cne,oBaHHs

6blTb O4eHb yo6eH yweT noKynOK 3a OAHy HeaeniEo (xoTA 4aCTO 26 , B TO BpeMS KaK, CKa)KeM, wnA oeXbI CyTO4HbIH nepH,4L) HCr1OJIb3OBaTb npegrIOLrTHTeCbHO 6oniEmtue yMeCTCH TpexMecA1'HbIr4 nepHoj. B cnytIae rpynnoBEIx LAaHHbIX MO)KHO rIOBbICHT6

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nOKa3aTenjb CeMe HOH no31e3HOCTH 6ygeT, KaK npaBunO, H3MeHSATEbCA npSMO rpo"opI4OHaJ1bHO CyMMapHE.IM CeMeriHbIM pacxoaam H o6paTHo rpOnOpUHOHanJIHO pa3Mepy CeMEH H ueHaM, rio KOTOPbIM OHa BblHyxQeHa noKynaTb TOBapbl. CaMoHi

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MeiKBpeMeHHas H3MeHqHBOCTE npo,goBiCTBeHHoro noTpe6JIeHHs( MoeKeT noTpe6oBaTb 6oniee xr1HTejibHbIX yMeTHBIX nepHoROB, HeCMOTpS1 Ha TO, qTO B 3TOM cJTyqae Bo3pacTaeT o0uH6Ka , cBA3aHHaA C TeM, qTO peCnIOHACHTEI

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CM., HanpHMep, Ashenfelter et al. (1986), Ravallion (1988), Gaiha and Deolalikar (1989), World Bank (1990, Chapter 2), Lanjouw and Stem (1991), Chaudhuri and Ravallion (1991). Ha 3Ty TeMy HanICaH psJI HenlJIoxx pa6oT, B TOM 4HcJIe: Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) H Deaton (1980). 3MnHpH'qecKue llpHMepbI MO)KHO HaHTH (B 4aCTHOCTH) B cne)1yiowHx pa6oTax: King (1983), Apps and Savage (1989), Jorgenson and Slesnick (1989), De Borger (1989) H Ravallion and van de Walle (1991a).

TeM He MeHee, cyWeCTByIOT noKa3aTenH

"KOnHqeCTBeHHOi

MCTpH'eCKOii

oCHoBaHHbIe Ha 4yHKuHH pacCTOAHH HunH TaK Ha3IsBaeMoH KOTOphie He npexRnoJlaramOT CyWeCTBOBaHHS pBIHKOB; CM.

nOne3HOCTH" -

Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) H Deaton (1980), rgie MO)KHO HaHTH o6cyxMeHHe H CCbIJKH Ha upyrHe pa6OTEi. OAHaKo ,aHHbie o npegnoxlTeHHBx Bce wKe Heo6xogHMbi. 14

3KBHBaniiHTHOCTH

(TaK

pa3Mep

KaK

COCTaB

ceMeH

HeOJaHHaKOB).

ToM1Has3

copMa

3THX

rqe(JIsATOpOB 6yxeT 3aBHCeTb OT npeqnlOHTeHHI4, KOTOpbIe (Ha npaKTHKe) onpeaeniAfOTCA Ha OCHOBe H3yLieHIH AHHaMHKH crpoca 3 O. 3TH qefTmTopbi 6o0iee noqpo6HO o6cywcaatoTcA B cne,TyIoueM pa3,geie.

0 KOTOpbIX ciieayeT HOMHHTb rHp BCeX nOBeieHmeCKHX oueHKaX ypOBHA 2KH3HH, B TOM qi4cne H rpH aHanJH3e 6 1arocOCTOlHHS ,4OMOX03SArCTB C OAHHaKOBbIM YPOBHeM nOTpe6neHHI. Cepbe3Has npo6neMa BO3HHKaeT B TOM cnyqae, Koraa ,aOCTyn K HepbIHOLIHbIM TOBapaM (COCTOAiHHe OKpyxcaiOaeii cpeabi, rOCyAapCTBeHHbie ycjiyrH, ) BapbHpyeTCA y pa3HbIX CeMeH. 143BeCTHO, LITO rpegroLTeHHS B nroTpe6jieHmH pbIHOqHbIX TOBapOB onocpexAOBaHO HanH'IHeM H no'rpe6JieHHeM HCpbIHOMHbIX TOBapOB, WHO CBHaeTeRbCTByeT o6 CylieCTByeT

puza npo6neM,

OTCyTCTBHH 6e3yc,7o0Hblx

npeAnoqTeHH5IX

TOBapOB (Pollak and Wales,

KaK B OTHOuJeHHH

1979; Pollak, 1991). BMeCTe

npe,qnoqTeHHr4 B OTHOlueHHH

pbIHO'qHbIX TOBapOB

pBIHOqHbMX, TaK H HepBIHOqHbIX

C TeM , BbIqsBfeHHbEIr Ha6op yCJIOBHI,X

MOwKeT COrJIaCOBbIBaTbCsl

6ecKOHexHbiM

npeacTaBBJISHoUHM ripeanoqTeHH5[ nO BceM TOBapaM3 l. flO3TOMy BHOJIHe JIOrHMHO ripejnojIO)HTb, 'TO KaKas-m1H60 KOHKpeTHaSI (3YHKuHA nojie3HOCTH, KOTOpaS MO)KeT 6blTB paccH4TaHa IAMnO4TBepwgeHHA pe3YI1BTaTOB Ha6mIoaeHHsA AHHMHKH MHoxcecTBoM

fYHKUHA Hno.Te3HOCTH,

noTpe6neHHsI

B KaqeCTBe orTHMyMa,

Mo)KceT HCnOflb3OBaTbcs

O0HaKO B ,aaHHOM cJiyMae, HanpHMep,

LnOHJIHHTCJnbHoe

H npH oueHKe

yaOBJIeTBopeHHe,

6narocOcToCTOHH.

KOTOpOe

pORHTejiH

flOJIMHalOT OT HOBOpO2CKeHHOrO MjiageHLia, BPAA nJH 6yReT CO BCeH oMeBHRHOCTbIO I pOMBJ5ITbCS B HX nOTpe6HTeC,bCKOM nOBeReHHH. B CaMOM aene, CTaHaapTHbie MeTObLI oueHKH B 6OJTbhIHHcTBe nozjo6HbIx cjlyqaeB nOKa)KyT noTepxo noJIe3HoCTH.

IIpH

HcIOJIb3OBaHHH nOKa3aTens

"3KBHBaJIeHTHbIX ,ROXO,ROB" .JIA

cpaBHHTeJIbHOHi

OUeHKH

CeMeH e C O;HHaKOBbIM YPOBHeM nOTpe6neHHsI HMieOTCSI H ,apyrHie npO6neM]l, o 6blJIO YnOMSHYTO B JlHTepaType. B iaCTHOCTH, oijeHKH 6eqHOcTH, noji"eHHbie Ha

6JlarOCOCTOsHIHu KOTOpbiX

OCHOBe

paCflpegegeHHM

3KBHBwieHTHbIX

ROXOROB",

HeKOTOPbIX HOPMaTHBHbIX CBOHCTB: HanlpHMep,

TaK)Ke

MOryT

Bbl3BaTb

HapyujeHHe

nepevleT aeHec)KHblX

aOXOAOB B COHOCTaBHMbie (3KBHBaieHTHbie) Ha OCHOBe K03H4HLHeHTOB UIKaJIbl 3KBHBaiieHTHOCTH MO)KCT HMeTb HeraTHBHOe BJIHS1HHe Ha arperHpOBaHHyIO OiAeHKy 6eAHOCTH 3 2 . Apyrog aKTyaJlbHO4 npO6JleMOHi IBJIiAeTCS

FIpH 3TOM npegnonaraeTcA, qTO napaMeTphl 3MnHpH'eCKOri MOaeJ1H cnpoca yIoBjieTBopqIoT TeoperH'qecKHM YCJ1OBH,M MaKCHMH3aUHH nojie3HOCTH (CM., HanpilMep, Deaton and Muellbauer, 1980; Varian 1984). (DyHKL1HA nojie3HOCTH BEIBOHTCA H3 MoAeJIH oLIeHO'IHoro cnpoca jiH60 B ABHOM IyHKUHOHajbHoM BHqe (KaK, HanpHMep, B pa6oTax Rosen, 1978, H King, 1983), IH6o c noMoui,io 6onee rH6KHX 'HcJIeHHbLIX MeTOrOB (Vartia 1983; HanpHMep, CM. De Borger, 1989, H Porter-Hudak and Hayes, 1991). 3TH BonpocmL 6o0nee noApo6Ho o6cyxraloTcB B pa6oTax Pollak and Wales (1979), Deaton and Muellbauer (1986), Fisher (1987), Pollak (1991), Blundell and Lewbel (1991) H Browning (1992). OCHOBHBH npo6ileMa Mo)KeT 6BITb panA'CHeHa cjieaylollHM o6pa3oM. Bbro.rJHAs o6paTHoe HHTerpHpOBaHHe OT CHCTeMbI cnpoca q(p,y,x) (npH KOTOpOM onpeaejiAlOTCA o6feMh1 noTpe6JieHHsl pa3H'HbIX pBIHO4HLIX TOBapOB npHi 'eHax p, jaoxoge y H HepbIHOIHbIX TOBapax x), npegnonoxKHM, qTO npH 3TOM nony'aeTcs HenpBMaA 4YHKUHX none3HOcTH v(p,y,x), HCnOJTh3yeMa3i AnA oUM eHKH 6iiarococTosAHHA. fIocnie 3Toro B pe3yjlETaTe npeo6pa3oBaHHs w[v(P,y,x),x] nonyqaeM Ty we cHcTeMy cnpoca [q(p,y,x) = -vp(p,y,x)/vy(p,y,x) gnA v(.) HnH w(A).

CM. Blackorby and Donaldson (1988). OCHOBHasA npo6neMa 3aKlnoqaeTcs B TOM, qTO BTOpaiS npOH3BOaHaA 3KBHBaJ1eHTHOrO goxoga no geHe)KHOMY Aoxoay HMeeT HeonpeqejieHHBlg 3HaK; 4IYHKuHA He o6R3aTejiHO ABJ1MeTCA BorHyTOfl aawe B TOM clfyMae, Korga HMeeT MeCTO BOrHyTOCTh no!Ie3HOCTH KaK 43yHKUHH 2ReHe)KHOrO aoxoaa. TaKHM o6pa3oM, npocToe BKjlOiqeHHe 3KBHBaJieHTHTIX AOXOAOB B CTaHgapTHYlO )yHKUH1O o6iuecTBeHHoro 6JlarocoCTOAHHA HJiH HoKa3aTeJIb 6egHoCTH Mo)KeT O3HaqaTb, qTO ypaBHHBaiol1WHC pacrpegeneHH4 aeHe)KHbIIX OXOAOB OXa3bIBaTOT HeraTHBHoe BJIHSHHC. 3To 3aCTaBHjio aBTOpOB pa6oTbI Blackorby and Donaldson (1987) peKOMeHAOBaTb Hcnoju,3OBaHHe "KO344HuHeHTOB 6JiarococToAHHS", c nOMOI'blO KOTOPEIX aeHe)KHbie gOXOIbi HopMaJIH3yIOTCS rio qepTe 6eaHoCTH, ROTOpas, B CBOIO OqepeAb, onpeAeJseTcA KaK TOqKa Ha rpa4HKe 4YHKLtHH noTpe6HTenECcKHx H39ep)KeK npH 3alaaHHOM HOpMaTHBHOM

HHTepnpeTaLHSA C TOqKH 3peHHA 6JiarococTOAHHA perpeCCHOHHbIX OCTaTKOB 4YHKUHH OueHO4HOrO

cnpoca; TeOPHAS He AaeT rOTOBOrO peuieHHs 3TOH npo6neMbi, H cXleeIaHHblii BbI6op Mo)Ker HMeTb 6oJlbmnoe 3Ha eHHe (B MacTHoCTH) ans OuteHKH 6eRHOCTH

. OCHOBHElM

Ha cnpoce,

6a3HpyloMWxcA

6narococTosHHs,

nOKa3aTeneg

pactieTa

JIpsA

npOBOAHMbie C

HCTOqHHKOM HH3OpMaumHH no npe)KHeMy ABJIAIOTCS O6CJCJeOBaHHA )OMOX03SHCTB,

o6ieMa noTpe6neHHR H pacXoaoB, XOTA HMelOTCS H gpyrHe nonie3Huie uejiblo onpeeneHiesH [IO3TOMy, B Hieaj1e, fpH BblnOJIHeHHH CpaBHHTeClbHbIX OUeHOK HH43OpManHH. HCTOMIHHKH

o6cneigOBaHHsI

cneHqUanbHbie

OT,aejibHbie

aHHbie

nROHOJIHHTCJ16HbiHe

rOCy,aapCTBeHHbIX

ycjlyrax

MCCTHbIX

3TH

ConocTaBsIAs

HJIH

AaHHbie

TOBapbi

HHbiC

1ieHHbIe

,jaTb

MOryT

HHTepBbioepaMH)

ueHax

o6cne,ioBaHHeM

OAHOBpCMeHHO

(npOBORl4Mbie

eKCCaMbIMH

TeMH

B03MO)KHO,

JAOMOXO3SArCTB

JIOMOXO3SArCTB.

Ha o6cneAonaHHe

HCKJIOMHTenbHO

nonaraTbcs

He cneayeT

6narococTosHuM

MeCTHb1X

o6cieRoBaHHs

pe3yflbTaTaMH

,aOMaUIHHX X03SIHCTB, MOACHO 3Haq4HTejbHO nOBblICHTb TOIHOCTb H OXBaT napaMeTpOB cemerHoro noaxog

TaKOi

6JlarococToAMRA.

O6cne,aOBaHHAx LSMS

rpHHAT

LUHPOKO

6aHKoM

BceMHpHbIM

ITPOBuHMbIX

HeCMOTpSI Ha pa3Hoo6pa3He MeTOAOJlorHtiecKHx rpHCMOB ,JIS )AOMOXO3SAHCTB C OqHHaKOBb1M YPOBHeM noTpe6jieHHI,

B03MO)KHb6

cpaBHHCHHM 6ilarococTosAHPl

CHTyalIHH, Korga HeBO3MQ>KHO

npexanoKu4Tb KaKoH-Jn46o y6eAHTenbHblri MeTOg onpeAeneiHHs pa3JIHqHr B 6narococTosHHH TaKHX

B qaHHOr4 CHTyaiHH CpaBHHTeJ]EHbLe OueHKH 6egHOCTH cnegyeT

,aOMOX03SArCTB. oTZjeJ1bHO

KaxQoIH

AJDA

noTpe6aeHHs

C'qHTaeTCS

co6orl no IHCJIy

HneHoB).

rpynn,

6narococTosIHHI

YPOBeHb

(HanpHMep,

HCOaHHaKOBbEM

rpynnbl

KOTOPbEX

npH

IPOH3BOAHTb

paBHbIX

pa3ji4nqa1OLUIHXCS

CeMeH,

o6beMax MeerIy

Mbi BepHeMCA K paCCMOTpeHH1O 3TOrO BOnpOCa B Pa3aenax 2.4 H 2.6.

B nocneRHee BpeMA B psAae ony6nIHKOBaHHbIX HccRe)joBaTeJbcKHx pa6OT, 1IOCBAIieHHbEX oLieHKe

)KH3HeHHoro

onpe,aes1MIoT,

Koro

ConoCTaBjieHHe

npOBO)aHTCS

ypOBHM,

6exHb1MH

c4HiTaTb

pa3JIHXIHbIX

XapaKTCpH3ytOT

KOTOpbie

nOKa3aTenieH,

6eaHoCTH. 3 6 .

AHHaMHKy

3TH

6yqTo TO HJH HHoe

HCCnegOBaHHsI 3aCJ1Y)KHBaEOT BHHMaHHs[, OHaKO B pAae cny aeB, nonaras o6cneAoBaHHe He BKAEoHaeT B ce6A onpeaenieHHyIo HH(OopMaiH1o ('TO Ha CaMOM Aeene He TaK), HCnOJIb3ylOT apyrHe o6cneAoBaHHs, KOTOpbie

ypOBHe

none3HOCTu.

3KBHBaJeHTHOrO ,oxoAa 33

MO)KHO

JIU6o

Bbi6paTb

eieHCTBHTenbHO He colep>KaT 3Ty HH4IOpMaLAHiO.

(npOH3BOIEHble)

"HopMaTHBHbLie

ueHI"

4YHKIcHH

C TCM, HTO6bi H36e2KaTb aaHHOrO napaaOKca 3MnIpHqeCKHM nyTeM; CM. Ravallion

and van de Walle (1991a). 3Ta npo6.neMa H 3MnHpHqecKie

npHMepbl

TaK-oe o6cyxcqaIoTcAi B pa6oTax Arnifat and Zabalza (1986) H van

de Walle (1989). 34

BMCCTO

HHX B

3T4X UeJiAx

MO)KHO

HCnonb3oBaTb

CBeaeHHA,

coo6ulaeMble CaMHMH

o6beMaM

rocygapCTBeHHbIx ycjiyrax H ueHaX, COOTBeTCTBYIOMHX coo6LeHHbIM HM Ha npHo6peTeHHe pa3jiHqHbIX ToBapoB. O0iHaKo 3JAecb MbI CTaJIKHBaCMCS

pecnoHHaeHTaMH

nOTpe6jieHHA H pacxoRam

C pSAOM npo6neM. 3HaHHe O

MecTHLix rocyaapcTBeHHbIx ycjiyrax 3aBHCHT OT HX HcnoJIb3OBaHHA, KOTOpOe MO)KeT JaBaTb CMe1IeHHy1O cTporo rOBOpAl, "eaHHHqHbIX cTOHMoCTer") H3 oueHKy Hx 4aKTrHxeCKoro HaniqHA. BbmAeneHHe ileH (Hin, o6¶beMoB noTpe6neH4As H pacXOROB TaK)Ke MO)KCT qaBaTb cMeLLeHHblg pe3yJibTaT, eCJIH Ka'ieCTBO TOBapOB npo6neMbl npuH OIJeHKe BapEUpyeTCA HeH3BeCTHblM o6pa3oM, XOTA Cy11eCTBYIOT MeTOUbl peweHHR 3T-ro noiyqHTE UeHbl Ha nO3BOJISeT He Bce-TaKH MeT0e aaHHb1H OaHaKO 1988). (Deaton napameTpoB cnpoca TOBapbI (TaK KaK peCKO HMeeTCA BO3MO)KHOCTb 3HaTiHMoro CpaBHeHHS aaHHblIX, nO3TOMY MO)KHO y3HaTb TOJ1bKO paCXOabl). XOpoumHui rpa#HK o6IJHHHoro noTpe6JIeHHrA Mo)KeT nOMO'Eb HCnpOOBOJbCTBeHHbLie

35 36

pCeIHTb BCe 3TH npo6neMbl. CM. Grootaert (1986) H Ainsworth and van der Gaag (1988). HIpHMepaMH TaKHX pa6oT BIBnRfOTC,S: Anand and Harris (1990), Glewwe and van der Gaag (1990), Haddad and Kanbur (1990), Slesnick (1990b), Lanjouw and Stern (1991), Chaudhuri and Ravallion (1991), a TaKX(e Bidani and Ravallion (1992). 16

Ha caMOM omene, MHOrO noJe3HOH HH4OpMaUHH 0 CBOHCTBaX UJHPOKO PaCnPOCTPaHeHHblX MoMeHTHbIX o6cnieAOBaHMH ROMOX03SIHCTB MO2KHO nOJIyqHTb C nOMOutblO HHAHBH,yajibHbIX H (HnH) JIOHrHTbE.IOHbIX o6cneaOBaHHri. OaHH H3 npHMepOB HpHBOa.HTCA B Pa3aene 3.2.

2.3

HeKoTopule aTbTepHaTHBHive xapa[CTePHCTHICH noTpe6jieHH5I

PeawbHbzi o6beu nompe6h1eHs Ha odHooo 9K6uGaWeHmuo2o 3pocwoo20 Pea.nbHbEl4 o6'eM noTpe6JIeHHs Ha OJHOrO 3KBHBaJieHTHOrO B3pOCjnoro onpeaenAeTcA CyMMapHbIMH HOMHHanbHbIMH pacxo,IaMH Ha npHo6peTeHHe BCeX TOBapOB H ycnyr (BKInIOqaa CTOHMOCTb noTpe6JIeHHA TOBapOB co6cTBeHHoro CTOHMOCTH

)KH3HH

(KOTOpblH

YqHTblBaeT

npOH3BO)ACTBa) geIbjfHpOBaHHbIMH Ha HHaeKC

BJIHMHHe

pa3HHLUbl

fOKynHbIX

LueHax)

KO3cxHLUHeHT 3KBHBaBieHTHOCTH (KOTOpbElH YwHTbIBaeT pa3IiHqHMf B pa3Mepe H COCTaBe ,aOMOXO3AlHCTB). C Bau4(epHCTCKOrH TO4KH 3peHHM npHBjieKaTejTbHOCTE gaHHOro noKa3aTensi o6ycnoBneHa ero clloco6HOCTbEO aripOKCHMHPOBaTb TOqHYIO ,IeHe)KHyIo Mepy IIOJIe3HOCTH. B caMoM jreiie, ecnH HCHOJTh3yeMbIe aecAJITOpbI corMiacyiOTCA C UipeqnOqTeHHHMH, TO IaHHblr nOKa3aTenib 6yIAeT TOX)IzeCTBeHHO paBeH 3KBHBaIeHTHOMy aOXOAy, onpeaeneHHe KOTOpOFO 6EJIo .aaHO B npe,abi,ynieM pa3,eene.

06oHM 3THM ae1JIATOpaM nocBA1ueHo 6onbmuoe KOJHieCTBO Ony6nHKOBaHHblIX pa6OT3 7 . C TOKH 3peHHM o6beKTHBHOCTH cpaBHHTejTbHblx OueHOK 6eaHOCTH ORHHM H3 KAioqCBbIx aCneKTOB HCnOnb3OBaHHI HHaeKCOB LieH ABJIAeTCA TOT 4 aKT, qTO .no6oii, oTgenEHO B3ATbrlH HHCeKC

npHMeHHM

KaK K 6eqHblM, TaK H K He6ejHbIM JIHIEb nIPH HeKOTOPbIX

oco6blx

yCjOBHMX 3 8 .

cjiyxiae o,4HOrO H3 HaH6ojiee HpOCTLIX, HO BCe eiue LUHpOKO pacyipocTpaHCHHblx HHACKCOB LUeH HHX1eKCa JlacneHpeca (ocHoBaHHorO Ha MOHHTOpHHre CTOHMOCTH HeKOToporo onpejAeneHHoro Ha6opa TOBapOB) - 3T0 O3HaqaeT 3aqaHMe pa3JiHVHoro nOTpe6HTeCJbCKorO Ha6opa AAAsi 6e.UHbIX H He6e,HbLIX. HanpHMep, B cpaBHHTCnbHbix oLuCHKax 6e,4HOCTH JIA IHa4H4HH o6blHO HCnOJ1b3OBanCI TaK

Ha3bwBaeMbliH

"HHJeKC

roTpe6HTeJmbcKHx

LueH

juiA arpapHbIx

pa6oTHHKoB",

KOTOPOM

noTpe6jsieMbie 6eRHbIMH OCHOBHbie TOBapbI, noKynaembie Ha 3apa6oTHyIO nnaTy, HMeiOT 6OnbmHri BCC, meM (cKaAceM) B o6iueM HHgeKCe nOTpe6HTeCJbCKHX LueH. OAHaKO CyLcCTBYIOT eCe 6onee JIyqlUHe HHJIeKCbI LIeH, qeM HHaeKC Jlacneripeca, KOTOpbTe MOryyT 6blTb paCCqHTaHbI Ha OCHOBe TeX )Ke CaMbiX gaaHHb1X. OHH "nyIlue" B TOM CMbICJie, 'TO cnoco6Hbi 6onee TOqHO arrUpOKCHMHpOBaTb HH,"eKC peClbHOH CTOHMOCTH WKH3HH, rOCKOJIbKy OCHOBaHbl Ha ¢aKTHicqeCKHX

npegrioqTeHHAx ( cM. Deaton and Muellbauer -1980)39. 3 TO MOoKeT HMeTb cyWCeTBeHHoe 3Ha,eHHe B TeX cnyiaaX, Koraa HMe}OT MCCTO 3HaqHMbie Pa3jlHq4HS B OTHOCHTeJnbHbIX uCHaX B npe,aejrax zoMeHa, ABnsAoulerocq o6,eKToM cpaBHHTCJTbHb1X OUCHOK 6euH-ocTH.

HecMOTPA M3MeHeHHM

Ha TO,

CTOHMOCTH

qTO

)KH3H4

HeO6XoaHMOCTb C

HCnOJIb3OBaHH BpeMeHH,

TeCeHHeM

nOnpaBKH, ri

o6iuenpH3HaHa,

yqHTbIBaioIleH cyLgecTBOBaHHe

37 06a

OHH PaCCMaTPHBaEOTCA B pa6oTe Deaton and Muellbauer (1980). Bonee noJIpo6HO uHAeKcCbI JeH o6Cy)KuaiOTC.q B HccjieCoBaHHi4 Diewert (1980). CM. TamKe pa6ory Browning (1992), rge npHBOalTCI o630p nHTepaTypEi no MacuLrTa6aM 3KBuBaJIeHTHocTH.

Ecnu OTCYTCTByeT pa3HHua B omHocumeJlbHblX ueHax, Heo6xoqHMo imiluib cgeinaTb rlonpaBKY Ha HH4UJIAUHIO, XOTA (pa3yMeeTcHi) JSA 3TOrO Bce-TaKH XO'ieTCSA HMeTb XOpOwHUi HHJeKC uICH. JJapyrofi cnyqaA, npH KOTOpOM HMCeT 3HaqeHHe TOJIEKO TeMn pa3BHTHA lHHfUJIAUHH - 3TO Korga cyUteCTByeT pa3HHLUa B OTHOCHTCJIbHLIX LUeHaX,

HO npe,AnoqTeHuHA

roMoTeTHqHbI

B TOM

cMblcne, qTO AOJIH paCXOIOB

B 6ioxteTax

6eRHEIlX

He6eIHbLix OJIHHaKOBbl. 3To CBO1CTBO pCAKO BbIUOJIHSCTcA 3MflHpHqeCKH.

OaHHHM H3 npHMepOB qBJIAeTcA HHJeKc TopHKHcTa, aHanH3HpyeMblti B pa6oTe Diewert (1976). CM. TaKoie

Balk (1990). 17

peeUO0HallbNbIX pa3JIHMHA OHaKo

I4rHopHpyeTCA.

B ieHax

MeCTHbie PbIHKH

HHTerpaLiHerl.

npocTpaHCTBeHHOH

MoryT

pa3JiHqHH

TaKHe

CTpaHaX, rae

pa3BHBa]OIUHXCA

npOBegeHHH

npH

3aMeTHbIMH,

BeCbMa

6blTb

3aqacTyio

PerHOHanib6Hble

OLIeHOK 6egHocTH macTo oco6eHHo B

CpaBHHTenJbHbIX

HeCOBepUleHHOH

XapaKTePH3yfOTCS B

pa3jnIHqH

LUeHaX

XapaKTePHMI

ARA

nOCTCOBeTCKOr4 POCCHH, rge CTOHMOCTb MHHHMaJubHOH nOTpe6HTeJIbCKOH KOp3HHKH B OTae)jTHbIX Cy6,beKTax (D)eLgepallHH pa3jIH8qaeTCA B HeCKOJIbKO pa3. 3To OKa3bIBaeT OeB4BH,HOe BnHAHHe Ha CpaBHHTeJIbHbie OLueHKH 6eIHOcTH B pa3flHqIHb1X perHoHax. HenpHHATHe B pacqeT perHOHa8JIHbIX B

pa3JIHqHH

WKH3HH

CTOHMOCTH

Mo)KeT

npHBORHTL

APKO

cMeIIeHHA1M

Bbipa8KeHHbIM

B LieHaX uenecoo6pa3Ho arperHPOBaHHEMX nOKa3aTeIIqx 6eRHocTH 0. PerHoHanbiHbie pa3JIH1qI4 4 H npH onpeAejieHHH napameTpoB cnpoca l, y4HTbiBaiOWHX noTpe6HTenIEcKHe

YqHT6IBaTb

npegnotqTeHHq

,BJIHAIoLUHe

oLeHKH 6JTarococToAHHs

(BKrno'as

B TOM

MHcjie

HHgeKCbl

pealbHOri CTOHMOCTH X(H3HH). rjiaBHaA npo6neMa, 0 KOTOpOH cnexyeT FIOMHHTL, 3aKJIIoqaeTcA B B03MO)KHOR HeO,HOpOAHOCTH TOBapOB, arperHPOBaHHbIX B TOBaPHbEI rpynnbl. 3To oco6eHHO aKTYa8JbHO ,ARA TaKHX TOBapOB, KaK )KHJIbe, HO AaeKe TaKHe TOBapbI, KaK pHC pa3JlHqaEOTCH no

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paCXO,4b6 Ha nHTaHHe pe3KO yBejiHqHBaIOTCA, HO HacTynaeT TaKOH MOMeHT, KOr,ga TeMribi 3Toro yBenH4eHHS Ha4HHM1OT CHHIKaTbCS H 3HaxuHTejibHO lPH qaAbHeHuIeM pocTe YpOBHA )KH3HH.

TaKHe

6narOcOcTOSHHSA H HOcnOJIb3YWOT npH nepecqeTe ceMeii xHCJIO B3pOCJTbIX. (Lanjouw and Ravallion, B 3KBHBaneHTHoe COCTTaBa pa3Horo AeMorpaeHxieCKoro

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1995). Ha ripaKTHKe np1H nocTpoeHHH ulKan 3KBHBaiJeHTHOCTH Mxaije Bcero OCHOBbIBaEOTCA Ha roTpe6HTJeT6CKOM nOBeAeHHH, Ha6nKogaeMoM npH npOBCegHHH o6cneAOBaHHri ceMeH. rIo CyTH ,1ena,

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40 HanpHMep, B pa6oTe Bidani and Ravallion (1992) noKa3aHo, xTO HrHOPUPOBaHHe perHoHanibHIX pa3IiHtIHrt B 1IeHaX nPHBOAWT K 3aMeTHOR nepeoUeHKe arperHPOBaHHbIX nOKa3aTeJIeH 6e,4HOCTH AJl1 IHHAOHe3HH. 41 CM., HanpHMep, Timmer and Alderman (1979), Pitt (1983) iHDeaton (1988). 42 rnpHMepBI pa3nUHlHbIX MeTO,JOB paceTra perHOHanibHBIX HHaeKCOB UeH B pa3BHBaiOujerIcA cTpaHe MO)KHO HauTH Bpa6oTax Ravallion and van de Walle (1991b) H Bidani and Ravallion (1992). 43 CpaBHHTe, HanpHMep, npegcTaBneHHLie B pa6oTe Visaria (1980) pe3yJIbTaTbi (palnwqHblx a3HaTCKHX o6cjieAOBaHHfl), nOnYHeHHBIe B cniyae paH)KHpOBaHHA aOMOXO3Ar4CTB no HX CYMMaPHBIM paCXoQ1aM, C pe3yJnbTaTaMH, nonyieHHbIMn C HCnOnb3OBaHHeM o6beMa PaCXOROB B pactere Ha OAHoro 'eJOBeKa. 18

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a TaioKe ueH H CyMMapHLIX paCXOAOB.

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3KBHBaJIeHTHOCTH, nojoXKeHO noCTpoeHHC perpecCHOHHOH MogefiH cnpoca, B KOTOpOH niorap)H4M ,OJIH PaCXOAOB Ha npOayKTbi nHTaHHU1 B o6Lueri cyMMe noTpe6HTenbcKHx paCxOaOB aOMOxO3sAHcTBa perpeCcpyeCTCs C JTOrapH4MOM AymlleBbIX

nOTpC6HTeJIbCKHx paCXOogOB H lHCY1OM ceMbe rpeacTaBHTener pa3JIHWHbIX aeMorpa4m4leCKmx rpynn (3TO TaK Ha3wBaeMaA YOpKHHr-JlecepoBcKas 4opMa KpUBOH 9HreJIA; CM. Deaton and Muellbauer, 1980). FIpH 3TOM .aonA nOTpe6neHHsi ripOAYKTOB riHTaHHS B CeMeUHOM 6io0ee HHTeprpeTHpyeTcq KaK nOKa3aTejib, o6paTHo nponopuiHoHaAbHbIH YPOBHiO 6narococToslHKsl (o6cyxcQeHHe 3Toro CM. HMeIOIUHXCS B

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Cne,ayeT JnH peKOMeHAOBaTb6RaHHbIH no)lxoa? 3,aecb cyiueCTByeT ueflbiH psAA npo6neM. PaccMoTpeHHbIir BbIiue npM4ep C KpHBOHi 3HreJIS npeanojiaraeT, HTO pa3HbEe CeMbH C oqHHaKOBOr4 Jgonef paCXOaOB Ha nHTaHHe B o6wi4x noTpe6HTenbcKHx pacxoaax HMmeOT OAHHaKOBbEJ YpOBeHb 6narococTosAHH. B paMKax B3ji4nepHCTCKOf4 napagHrmbl TaKoe npeAnoJ¶o)KeHHe BecbMa ,1HCKYCCHOHHo 4 5 . (EcAH )Ke Koro-iH6o 3To npeanO.fo)KeHHe BnOJnHe yCTpaHBaeT, TO B gaLHHOM o6 HCnOIEb3OBaHHIH UJKaj 3KBHBaBJeHTHOCTH LISA OueHKH 6narocOcTOAHHi H 6eAHocTH - aOJIA paCXOAOB Ha nHTaHTe B 0o6uHx cCMeHHbEx pacxo.Aax yKe cjiyHae

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HpOH3BORHTCS C yxieToM HX 6ygy1uHx HOTpe6HOCTeH (Korga

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BJHAHHe 3THX pacxo2JoB Ha 46

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o6cinegOBaHHA . 1103TOMY cyry6o CTaTH'ecKHe Ha6JnoaeHH4 H geMorpai43meCKHX xapaKTepHCTHK ceMe npH onpegejieH4H MacIUTa6OB

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onpegeneeHHbX Ha OCHOBe nOTpe6HTeJIb6CKOrO nOBeJeHHs, TaKoKe 3aBHCHT OT npeaCTaBneHHH O TOM, KaK npOHcxoAHT accHrHOBaHHe pacXO,4OB Ha nOTpe6neHHe 6nympu ceMbH. HHTepnpeTalHl

CM., HanpHMep, Lazear and Michael (1980), van der Gaag and Smolensky (1982), Deaton and Muellbauer HDeaton and Case (1988). CorJiaCHO OAHOMY H3 ajbTepHaTHBHbIX MeToAOB, B OCHOBy oUeHKH 3arpaT Ha aeTert aoJuHo 6biTb nono)KeHo 3MnlpHHecKoe BJ1HAHHe aeMorpa4)HqecKHx nepeMeHHEIX Ha cnpoc Ha "ToBapbl =Anx B3pocJIblx" (HanpHMep, TaKHe KaK nocetueHHe KHHoTCaTpa); CM. Deaton and Muellbauer (1986) H Deaton and Case (1988). TaKOri noaxoa npegcTaBJIqeTcx 6o0iee Uenecoo6pa3HblM, XOTA cTeneHb ero npHMeHHMOCTH, B03MO)KHO, BI,rwe B 6onee 6oraTbix cTpaHax, rge (KaK npaBHno) pa3HHua Me)Ky TOBapaMH

(1986)

AJS B3pOCJTE1X

45 46

H "geTCKHMH TOBapaMH" BbIpa)KeHa 6onee OTqeTJIHBO.

Bonee noxtpo6Hoe o6cymeHHe npHcywuHx XaaHHOMy noaxogy OrpaHHweHHri MO)KHO HaflTH B pa6oTax Nicholson (1976), Deaton and MuelIbauer (1980), Deaton and Case (1988), aTaIoKe Lanjouw and Ravallion (1995). AHajiH3 BJIHsHHA Me)KBpeMeHHOFO noTpe6uTenblcKoro HOBCegeHAR Ha OUeHKy MaacdTa6oB 3KBHBaJieHTHOCTH CM. B pa6oTe Pashardes (1991).

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47 0630p

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McElroy (1990). CM.

Haddad and Hoddintott (1991). 20

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KOHKpeTHOH CpaBHHTeJIbHOH OL1eHKH 6eAHOcTH ripOCTHpaeTCSA aneKo 3a npeaeJ]bI ORHOH CTpaHbl. OqHaKO, Heo6xORHMO C4¢OpMHpOBaTb XapaKTepHCTHKH 6eaHOcTH TOJibKO ARS OJHOH Eciin, cTpaHbl, Bbi6op qepTbi a6conRoTHOA 6eaHOcTH aojiKeH OTPa)KaTb peajH4H 3TOH cTpaHbl. CyxcgeHHs TO npeACTaBJISeT Co6orl pa3yMHaA qepTa a6cOJlOTHOi 6eAHocTH, aOJDKHbl, npexKge Bcero, OTBeT Ha 3TOT BOnpOC MO)KeT onpeeaenATb COOTBeTCTBy1OioHH 2AOMeH H flpH3HaBaTb, 'TO o TOM,

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gOMeHa CpaBHHTeJlbHOrO aHanH3a 6egHOCTH 3aBHCHT OT uejiH, pajH KOTOpOHi IIPOH3BOAHTCS 3Ta ARSA anpecHoro BbIaen3eHHS[ oi{eHKa. EcInH, HanpHMep, cpaBHHTeJIbHbliH aHaH3 HCnOJnb3yeTC BeCbMa )KeJiaTeJIbHO. HeCOMHeHHO, eaHHoo6pa3He, TO CTpaHaM, peCypCOB 6eCHbIM perHOHaM HWl4

HanlpHMep, O4¢HLxHaJilbHbie OueHKH (aaHHbie rlpaBHTenJbCTBOM KaKIOH cTpaHbl) qOj1H 6eAHblX OT ee BpeMSA pHMepHO O HHaKOBbl o6mei 'HcJieHHOCTH HaceneHHS4 B CILIA H 14HqOHe3HH B HacTo, (npH6rnH3HTenbHO

15% no

COCTOSlHHIO Ha

1990

r.). 5ICHO, 'TO TaKyiO CpaBHHTenJbHY1O OLIeHKY He

caeLyeT HCnOJIb3OBaTb KaK opHeHTHp AJIA pacnpegeneHHN nOMOUIIH (K C4acTblo, 3TOro HHKorga H He npoHcxoaiHo). B COOTBeTCTBHH C J1o6bIM eAHHOo6pa3HbIM CTaHLLapTOM MO)KHO nO4TH He COMHeBaTbCS B TOM, qTO npOLIeHT noTpe6HTeflbCKOII 6eCHOcTH B I4HIOHe3HH Bbulue. QaHaKo, eciH HeO6xoaiHMO 3HaTb, KaKaS H3 cpaBHHBaeMbix CTpaH HMeeT 6onee BbICOKHH npOLXeHT 6e,4HOcTH no cTaH,apTaM 3TOH1

cTpaHbl, TO Torga 3TH OcHLIHaJbHbIe O1jeHKH MOryT

rioCJIYAKHTb

HeruiOXHM

nOCrcnOpbeM.

OnpeoeAenue iepmbi 6ebuocmu iHa 6a3e OCHO6HblX nompe6uocmeii HaH6o0ee UHPOKO paCnpOCTpaHeHHblH nORXOA K onpegeneHHIO 'epTbi 6eRHOCTH psAa OCHOBHbIX noTpe6HOcTerl, 3aKjnOMaeTCA B TOM, 14To6bl Ha'aTb aHlJH3 C BbISBj]eHHS4 53 C'qHTaIOIUHXCS 3Ha'qHMbIMH )ARA paccMaTpHBaeMoro goMeHa cpaBHHTeJIbHOH oLxeHKH 6eXAHocTu . BawKHefimei OCHOBHOHl nOTpe6HOCTblO, HeCOMHeHHO, ABJISHOTCS paCXOLbl Ha npOaOBOjibCTBeHHbie ToBapbi, Heo6xoaHMEIe JIAS,RocTHxeHHsl HeKOToporo peKmOeHMOBaHHoro o06eMa roTpe6jieHHS rHHueBOH 3HeprHH. K HHM TaKm(e ciejyeT HpHnJIUOCOBaTb HenPOaOBOJIbCTBeHHbie TOBapbi, OMeHa B paMKaX paccmaTpHBaemoro K MHCJIy CaMbIX Heo6XOaHMbIX OTHOCAiUHeCS cpaBHHTeIEbHOi O1ieHKH 6eaHOCTH.

npH TaKOM nogxoge rIiaBHoHI npo6neMog MBflSJeTCS onpeaeieH4e nOTpe6HOCTH B nHHeBOR 3HeprHH. 3Ta nOTpe6HOCTb He OAHHaKOBa y pa3Hb1X juoaeH H gaxKe AnS o0HOrO 4 qeJOBeKa B pa3Hbie nepHOJbI BpeMeHH5 . AHeTOnOraMH aaHbl OueHKH nOTpe6HOCTei4 B nfHUeBOH

K onpenejieHHIo mepT 6eRHocTH, B OCHOBe KoToporo ne)KHT oLeHKa "OCHOBHbIX noTpe6HocTel", lOpKe (AHriuiH) Ha YXOAHT CBOHMH KOpHAMH B pa6oTy POyHTpU, nOCBAiLeHHYIO mccneAoBaHHio 6eRHocTH B

nOnXO,4

py6e)Ke XIX H XX BeKOB. XapaKTepHcTHKa npoBegeHHoro POYHTPH HccJieCOBaHHA jaHa B pa6oTe Atkinson (1975, Chapter 10). B noTpe6Hoc-r3ix Ha OUeHKY CTeneHH HeAOCTaToqHocTH nHTaHHA H 6eJHocTH BnSHHHe pa3JnHi paccMaTpHBaeTcA TaBIKe B pa6oTax Osmani (1987), Kakwani (1989) H Dasgupta and Ray (1990).

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,goporocToAliiHe "KaJopHH"; B COOTBeTCTBHH C MeTOaOM nHuleBOHi 3HeprHH 3T0 6yqeT o3HaqaTb ycTaHOBneHHe 6onee BbICOKHX qepT 6e;HOcTH B 6onee 6oraTbix perHoHax. flo CyTH aena, CpaBHHTenJbHbIe OLeHKH a6coRIoTHOA 6eRHocT4 XIAS pa3jIHT-HbIX perHOHOB, CeKTOPOB HnH B C CnOJIb3OBaHHeM MeTOqa rUHHeBOui 3HeprHH, BO Pa3Hbie nepHOJAbl BpeMeHH, onpeAeHeHHbie 7 MHorfHx Cny"aMx MOryT BBOHTETb B 3a6jiyxweHHeS . COOTBeTCTBY1O1UHH 3MnHpHqeCKHH npHmep

6y,re'r npHBegeH B Pavene 55 56 57

3.2.

O6cy=iaeHHe 3Toro MeTog1a MOAKHO HariTH B pa6oTax Osmani (1982) t1Greer and Thorbecke (1986a,b). rIapaMerpbl TaKHx perpeccHui, a TaKice 3KOHoMeTpuH4eCKHe npo6neMbi, KOTOpble Heo6xogi4Mo npH 3TOM pacCMoTpeTh, o6cyxwaioTcq Bpa6oTe Bouis and Haddad (1992). PaccmoTpiM aBa A0oMoxo3SAcTBa, pa3ujiiaioiuHecA no o6feMaM peaCJbHoro noTpe6JIeHHs. KaKoe U3 HHX 6yueT cCHTaTbcC "6o0nee 6egHbIM" OTHOCHTenJbHO mepT 6eAHOocT, onpeaenieHHbIx C nOMOl1blO 3Toro MeToJIa? OTBeT HeoneBHgeH, H Henb3.s 3apaHee yTBepxctlaTb, 9T0 6o0iee 6eJHoe aOMOXO3AAcrBo 6yaeT onpeqeneHo npaBHRIbHO. qTo6bE noH3iTE, noqemy 3TO TaK, paCCMOTpHM TaKylo CHTyalHo: nyCT y - peainbHbie paCXOJIbl, H fiycTb c(y) = f(y)/k(y) o6o3HaqaeT cpeUHlOTO ueHy, ynnaqHBaemyio 3a OaHy Kac0Optio, rae f(y) IIPO2OBojnbcTBeHHb1e pacxogi6b npH cyMMapHbix pacxoAax y, a k(y) cooTBeTcTByLL0UH HopMaTHBHOri noTpe6HocTH. Torga y = c(y)k(y)

06beM noTpe6neHHM

+ n(y), rae n(y) -

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ii) Memo6 y6eiibUlo0o 6eca npo6yKmo6 numaHiuq. CornaCHO OLueHHBaeTCS

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TeX

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(Lipton, 1983) yTBepMaeT, 'HTO YPOBeHb AOXOAOB, nplH KOTOPOM cnpoca Ha OCHOBHbie BHhbl HPpOQYKTOB nHTaHHA paBHAeTCA eJRHHHL1e,

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paccMaTpHBaT6CA KaK lOTeHUHaJlbHblHi KpHTCpHH BbIlBjieHHq "CBepx6eAHElX". He npeAIeOJlaraTb, HTO TaKOW TOHe-IHbIH YPOBeHb o6A3aTeJIbHO CyHeCTBYeT (H4H ABj1AeTCA

icaJropHAx ygoBiIeTBOpAeTcqi). Touma z'(y) = I + c'(y)(I - k) - c(y)k'(y), 'TO npesBbiLIaeT 1 ecnlH c'(y) > 0, k < I H k'(y) = 0, KaK npeano.jaraeTcq. TaKHM o6pa3oM, npH 3THX yCJIOBHAx IsA 6o0iee o6ecneqeHHoA ceMF,H He TOJIBKO qepTa 6eAHocTH 6yqeT BHIeIC, HO U ee npoH3BoJIHaq no pacxogaM 6yaeT npCBbiwIaTh eCJHHHUy, 'ITO

o3Ha'qaeT', To pa3pblB 6e,HocTH, HariAeHHEIrH no MeTogy nHweBoi 3HeprHH, 6yAeT coKpau#ambcq no mepe CHH)KeHHA )KH3HeHHorO YPOBHA. TOT Ke caMblUi pe3yflbTaT MO)KeT 6BITb rOioy'leH H B cnyqae BO3paCTaHHA o6IVeMa nOTpe6JIeHHU[ nHUIeBOfi 3HCPrHH C pOCTOM y (k'(y) > 0), npH yCJIOBHH, 'TO npH 3TOM 3JiaCTH'qHOCTh 6y,aeT JrocTaToqHO HH3KOU; HeO6XoaUMbiM H qOCTaTOqHbIM yCJIOBHeM XBJUIeTCB TO, 'TO6bi 3YiaCTH4qHOCTb o6feMa noTpe6.reHHMi nHiueBoji 3HeprHH (k'(y)y/k) He npeBbiiuiaia nPOH3MBeeHHA LIeHFl OXIHO}i KanOPHH (C'(Y)Y/C) Ha Ben]H'Hiy npOnOPUHOHaBjbHoro COKpaLueHliH

nHUeBOr 3HcprHH OTHOCHTeiTbHO noTpe6HOCTH B Heri 58

ROXOAHOA

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HO TOrga OCHOBHoe BHHMaHHe ripegrnOJ1OXHTen bHO KOHiIeHTpHpyeTCS

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0 TOM,

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(KaK H npH HCnOJIEb3OBaHHH apyr4x o6cyxQaBIlHxcsA Bbine paccyxmeHHri BriOjiHe MO)KeT 3aKO'UaTECSA B TOM, 'TO He 3THX MeTOAOB). Eonee BaMKHbIA HTOr ci1eAyeT cocpeAoToqHBaTbCS Ha KaKoH-nH6o OjHOii qepTe 6eaHOcTH, a Heo6xoaHMo paccMoTpeTb XOTSI 6bl eue ogHy aonoflHHTCejbHyio qepTy 6eRHocTH4, pacnonoewHHyIo HH)Ke H yMblEmneHHO Ha rpOipyKTbi HHTaHHS

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HpOH3BOJIbHOCTH, HeKOTOpbie HCCJieAOBaTenH-npaKTHKH npe)jnomRH onpeqeniTb "6eAHbix" qepe3 (HanpHMep 10% caMbIx 6eAHb6x) B Aorno (p) camoro HH3Koo6ecne'eHHorO HaceJIeHHS HeKOTOpbIir 6a3OBbEH MOMeHT BpeMeHH HUH B HeKOTOpOM 6a3OBoM MecTe. [IpeHMyiuecTBa TaKoro oqeBHAHbl, H60 COBepUieHHO HeBaCHO, 'ITO HenOCpeACTBeHHO Bbi6HpaTb 3Hal'eHHe AoJIH (p) HnH mepTy 6eaHOcTH (HHwe KOTOpOH HaxO1sATCA 3TH p npoueHHTOB HaceYieHHR). ropa3AO BaKHee TO, 'TO B 3TOM cuiyqae B KaqeCTBe qepTbi 6e,4HOcTH JIAScpaBHeHHrcC 6py0UMU noAxoLa He

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MOMeHTaMH BpeMeHH HJIH MCCTaMH HCnOJTb3yeTCS COOTBeTCTByIOLIIHi ypOBeH16 noT'pe6JIeHHs HJH 6eAHOCTH TOJIbKO B ,aOXOtOB. 3TOT MCTOA cnoco6eH qaTb COCTOSTeJibHy1O CpaBHHTeYIbHylO OUeHKy TOM cny'ae, eCJIH qepTa 6eqHOCTH, Bblpa)KeHHaS B TepMHHaX YPOBHS )KH3HH, eaHHa nO BceMy JaOMeHy CpaBHHTeJIbHOii OueHKH 6eiHOCTH (xO0nyCKaq, xiTO 3Han'iHHe p moryT MeHSTbCS3). 4To eCJIH Bbi6paHHbiH flOKa3aTCYIb HeCAeKBaTHO OTpaiKaeT OCHOBHbie pa3JlHAHs B YpOBHe KeiiaHHe npeO,OJIeTb 3TOT HeJOCTaTOK HOCPeACTBOM Toraa Mo)KeT BO3HHKHYTb WKH3HH? B 3TOM YCTaHoBjieHHA oTAeJiEHoH qepTbi 6eRHOcTH ZJ1SI pa3jIHqHbIX noarpyinl. 3To npeKpaCHO HO 1

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B npegbiaylueM

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6eRHoCTH, 3geCb yMeCTHO CeeniaTb pAR 3aMeliaHHH.

TaKHX KOppeKTHPOBOK BnOJIHe O'eBHAHa: HCIOJIb3OBaHHS BbICOKyEO qepTy llOTpe6HTeYIbCKori 6eRHOcTH 6onee YCTaHOBHTb HanpHMep, MO)KeT nOTpe6OBaT6cs 6 JInS perHoHa, rAe OTCYTCTBYCT aocTyn K rocyLxapCTBeHHbIM ToBapaM l. HO B Apyrl4x cuyMaAx ueuiecoo6pa3HocTb HX HCnOJTh3OBaHHS MO)KCT OKa3aTbCSA CnOpHO . HanpHMep, MOXKHO 6buIo 6bl UHorUa

59 60

CM., HanpHMep, pe3ynE.TaTbi, npegcTaBneHHaie B pa6oTe Pitt (1983) =Ani BaHrnaaeiu. XOTS TaKOBi cnoco6 paccMoTpeHHA pa3YiH4HBwx "noTpe6HocTer" HMeeT CBOU orpaHHqeHHs, noCKoJIbKy 3TU4 3a MepTOri 6eaHocm. BIonee HaxoqsIUHXCS n oje, =A JI He HMeTb CMbicJIa cneUl4)HMeCKorI ARn Kax)ogo no "AOXOOB" Bcex npeAnoB0THTenibHbIM MeTOAOM ABJISICTCS HopManiH3aUHs Ha3blBaeMmIil "KO344HuHeHT TaK noniy-aeTcA KOTOpOUi pe3yJIbTaTe (B 6eAHocTH nogrpynnEj qepTe 1987). 1980, Donaldson, and Blackorby CM. 6naroCOCTOCAHHA"; Bo MHorHx pa3BHBaioUIHXCs C'rpaHax, rue Ha6JIoAaeTcA CliJTbHO Bbipam(eHHbldl "CUBHr B CTOPOHY rOpouCKoro yKYnaAa )KH3HH" (Lipton, 1977), TaKofl no0aXo0 XIojilKeH npHBeCTH K ycTaHOBjieHnio 6onee BBICOKOU tepTbl CpaBHeHHA

HeO6XOAHMOCTb

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WTO Mbl noApa3ymeBaem noA 6onee BbICOKOHi mepTOH 6eCHOCTH B ropoiuax. HanpHMep,

eCJIH BKJIIO1IHTb

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HaceYleHHqS HaMHOFO HHAKe, 4eM B ropoAe. 3TH HgeH TpyJIHO y6eJuHTenbHbIM noTpe6ylOTCsl KOTOpbMe Bonpocax.

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3THM

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npe,ano'ITHTejibHo 6bITb yBepCHHbIM HO KpaAHeR mepe B TOM,

62 CM. Sen (1983, 1985a,b, 1987), rge ,CaeTCST1iiaTejibHOe

nOJIHTHKy,

a H

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OmuocumeAbNblfi no)xo0

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Pa3HHua Me)2y pa6oTaMHm, HOCBSAieHHbIMH pa3BHBaioiAHMCA H pa3BHTbIM cTpaHaM, 3amKioMaeTCS B TOM, MITO eciiH B rlepBbIX AOMHHHpYIOT a6cojnoTHbie OuCHKH 6eaHoCTH, TO B 63 nocneAiHHx 6o0nee BaWKHbIMH cq4HTaioTcS nOaXOgbi, OCHOBaHHbiC Ha OTHOCHTeJbHOH 6eAHocTH . ABTopaMH psAa pa6OT no pa3BHTbIM CTpaHaM BbECKa3blBaeTCS 64 HOCHT BceLejio "oTHoCHTenbHbH" xapaKTep .

MbICJIb, 'ITO

IOHSTHe "6eAHocTH"

lMauie Bcero npH onpegeneHHH OTHOCHTeRbHO9 iepTbI 6eJRHOCTH B KameCTBe TaKOBOH OT BeJIHqHHEl cpeRHero apH4¢MeTHMeCKoro HJIH HcnOJnb3yeTCS HeKOTOpaS npOnOPLtHS (0onsI) MeCHaHHOrO YPOBHA noTpe6neHHS HnH AOXOaOB. HanpHMep, BO MHOFHX HCCjlegOBaHHqlX qepTa 6e)HOCTH yCTaHaBRHBaAacb, B COOTBeTCTBHH C peKOMeHalAHAiMH Fuchs (1967), npH6nH3HTejbHo 65 WTO npH 3TOM noYIyqalOTCA Ha YPOBHe 50% OT MeaHaHbI . He CTOHT Y)1HBJISTbCS TOMy, KOTOpble rionyaIoTCS npH C TeMH, cpaBHeHHAO no 6eAHocTH OLueHKH HHbie COBepiIIeHHO HCnOJIb3OBaHHH cHKKCHpOBaHHOH 'epTbi

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6 6

wfTbI 6eAHoCTH, Korga uenecoo6pa3HocTb HCHOJTb3OBaHHS 3HaIeHHA, MeAHaHHorO) He (a Bblpa)KeHHOH B .ORAonX HMCHHO OT Cpe,uHero apw4MeTH'ieCKorO lBJIASeTCS HeonpoBepiCHMoH? BO3MONCHO, 4a, 14 B cneaypoumem pa3aene A 6onee nojpo6Ho EbIBalOT

paccmOTpIO

JlH

TaKHe

cffyqaH,

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63 BnpoqeM, 3TO He BCerga TaK;

RHUlb

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npaBHTejTcTBO CL1A UCnOJnb3yeT a6COnlOTHYIO

qepTy 6egHOcTH

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K npUmepy,

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orpaHH'qHMCS

(Sawhill, 1988).

HanpHMep, pa6ory Townsend (1985), B KOTOPOU gaHbl KOMMeHTapHH K TPYNy Sen (1983); TaKoe CM. Sen (1985b), rge npeacTaBneH OTBCT aBTOpa Ha 3TH KOMMeHTaPHH. AjTbTepHaTHBHlI1 - XOTA H MeHee paCnpoCTpaHeHHbIti - notxoz npegycMaTpHBaeT onpegeJleHHe 6eAHbix KaK jiioger, noTpe6JIAoMuKix MeHbaue onpejieneHHbLIx TOBapOB no cpaBHeHHfo C "HOpMOU", fnpHHSITOi B TOM HuH HHOM KOHKpeTHOM o6tUecTBe H OueHHBaemOH (HanpHMep) no MOaaJIbHOMY HoTpe6neHHEo; gaHHrfli noxAxo,

64 CM.,

ocBeulaeTcR B pa6oTax Townsend (1979) H Desai and Shah (1988). 66 CM. pa6oTy Atkinson (1991), B KOTOpOUi noKa3aHo, KaK BlI6op 3TOFO

noaxoaa BJIHqSeT Ha cpaBHHTCejHbHe npu cpaBHeHHH oileHoK pacxoKIeHHA 3HanHTeJIbHbEe Ha6mnoaaioTcs EBponbl; B CTpaHaX oueHKH 6eaHocTH 6exUHoCTH, oCHoBaHHbIx Ha noCTOsAHHOH nponopuu CpeaHHX XaOXOaOB UISAKaXLor CTpaHbI, C oiLeHKaMH, noJYqeHHbIMH C HCnOJIb3oBaHUeM Bce TOU we nponopT4HH, HO npHMeHHTeJIbHO K nOCTOAHHOMY CpeJHeMy 3Ha'IeHHIO Anm BCex C-rpaH. CpanHeHHe a6conloTHorl H OTHoCHTeITbHOH MepT 6eaHocTH iAns pa3sBHBaioLuerC CTpaHbl CM.

Sahota (1990).

OTHOcHTenjbHO

HeKoTopbix

CBOHCTB

roMoreHHbl B HyjieBoH cTeneHH qepTe 6e,HoCTH. 3To O3HaMaeT,

qepTbi

TaKoM

6eHocTH:

OTHOCHTenJbHo Ho OTHoiieHHIO K

TaKHe nOKm3aTemH CpeCHeMy 3HaeHIHH1O

6egHOCTH AOXOAOB H

qTO (HanpHMep) npH ygBBOeHHH BCeX JROXOAOB H qepTbi 6exHOcTH

3HaqeHHe nOKa3aTenIA 6ejaHOCTH OCTaHeTCS HeH3MeHHblM 67 . TaKOHi nOKa3aTeiIb 6eCRHOCTH MO)KHO OnHCaTb cnepyomeii o6o6iueHHor4 3OpMyIOH:

(I)

P = P(-,L),

rgae z - qepTa 6eRHHocTH, g - cpeaHee 3HaqeHHe pacnpegeneHAs noKa3aTensA, no KOTOpOMy ouefHHBfeTCS 6e4HOcTb, a L - KPHBaS JIOpeHua 3TOrO pacnpeaeJIeHHs4, KOTOpaA CyMMHpyeT B ce6e BCIO HOpMaTHBHYIO HH4opMaumHIO o6 OTHOCHTejibHbIX HepaBeHCTBax 6 8 . EcniH 'epTa 6eAHOcTH onpetensIAeTcs

KaK nOCTOAIHHaB

KOHCTaHTa 6 9 ,

nOKa3aTeCJb

ucM70oMumeAbUo OT KPHBOH IpOnOPUHH, TO

.RoJIs OT cpeaHero 3HaMeHH, z = k -, TpaHC4opMHpyeTCs B 4YHKUHEO

6egHOcTH

JlopeHUa.

EcjuI

Bee

q1XOXAbI

BO3paCTaIOT

k - HeKoTOpaS P(k, L) H 3aBHCHT B O,RHOA H TOH we r,ge

P(k, L) OCTaHeTCA a6cORnoTHO HCH3MeHHOii, cieJaOBaTe.nbHo He 6y4eT HHKaKHX

H3MeHeHHH1 B OTHOCHTenJbHb1X HepaBeHCTBaX H, npOCTO BblpaCTeT B TOH wKe CaMoH

L TaKo*Ke 6yreT

HeH3MeHHOA.

A qepTa

6e,RHOcTH

npOnOpLIHH.

TeM He MeHee, B TOH CTeneHH, B KaKOH ,aaHHaS KOHLUen1HSA geHCTBHTenbHO nbITaeTCAR OXBaTHTb

pa3mep

uepaeecmwMa

HCK1UO4HTeJTbHO OT KpHBOH llopeHua,

6eaHOcTH". O0HaKO Torga MbI

pacnpeAeJIeHHH,

P(k, L)

AOJDKHbI

KOTOpOe

MO)KHO

noJnaraTb

3ajaTbCA BOnpOCOM, B cjiy'ae H3MeHeHHS pacnpeaeeHHA

P(k, L), HapyHIHTCSi ni pacnpe;eneHHe no COOTBeTCTBY1OweMy noKa3aTejuo juo6oM H3MePCHHH HePaBeHCTBa HeO6XOLHMO yq'HTbIBaTb TOT 4aKT, 'TO nepepacnpejgenetum

aOXOAOB

meXwAy

3aBHCAHIHM

sABJIeTCS HenniOXHM nOKa3aTenJeM "OTHocHTejibHOr4

IByMSA J11OAbMH HepaBeHCTBO

HepaBeHcTBa rHpH BCSIKHH

pa3

ipH

coKpaiuaeTcA (Bo3pacTaeT),

JROHOp HMeeT 6o0iee BbMCOKie (HH3KHe) gOXOabj, qeM nonymaTeJb (Atkinson 1970, 1975). Mo)KHo 6e3 Tpy)ja HPHBeCTH rpHMepbl, flPH KOTOPbIX pacnpegeneflH4e A aOMHHHPOBajiO 6bl Haa pacnpegerem4em B no JlopeHuy, T. e. COCTOSHHe A xapaKTepH3OBanocb 6bl MeHblU1HM HepaBeHCTBOM, HeM COCTOSHHe B C TOIKH 3PeHHA JEO60rO HOpMajibHO pacnpeqejIeHHoro nOKa3aTeJls HepaBeHCTBa, H, TeM He MeHee, noKB3aTeJb P(k, L) anIA pacnpeeaeneHHs A 6bim 6bl BbrlLue, qeM ARA pacrpe,eJieHHA B7 0 . HluoJ6Hbie npHMepbl TaK.Ke B03MO)KHbl, KOrJaa TpaHCefepTbl eciiH

67 O6naaaioIUHe

3THM CBOHCTBOM noKa3aTeJui 6eRHocTH "HHBapHaHTHbl K MacLLUTa6y". B pae pa6oT OHH "OTHOcHTeJbHblIMH noKa3aTeJIsMH 6eRHocTH" B OTJIHqHe OT "a6cojuoTHElx noKa3aTenerl 6eaHocTH", KOTOpEiC HHBapHaHTHbl K ao6aBneHHIO OAHO1 H TOH1we a6conloTHoR BeJ1HqHHbI KO BCeM gOXO2aBM H qepTe 6exHwocTH; CM. Blackorby and Donaldson (1980) H Foster and Shorrocks (1991). B HacTosiuIei4 pa6oTe A He 6yzty Hcnonb3oBaTb 3Ty TepMHHOJIorHIo, TaK KaK cyHteCTByeT onacHocTb HenpaBHjiLHoro HMeHylOTCA

HCTOJIKOBaHHA

HO'qTH

BCe

BbIlUeyrOMSHYTOrO

HCHORb3yeMbMe

pa3J1Hq'H

B HacToAulee

Mewuly a6coJnOTHOri

BpeMsA

H OTHoCHTenbHori

npaKTHKC

noKa3aTeJIH

qepTaMH 6eCaHocTH.

6ejaHocT4 ABJIAIOTCA "oTHoCHTeJIbHbIMH noKa3aTensMH 6eRHocTH" B BbIT1CuyKa3aHHOM 3Ha'eHHH 3TOrO TepMHHa, He3aBHCHMo oT Toro, qBJnAeTcA qepTa 6eRHOcTH a6con1oTHori HJIH OTHoCHTeJIEHO. KpHBaM JlopeHuta noKa3blBaeT (no BepTHKaJTbHOH1 OCH) Aonio CyMMapHb[X "fOXOgoB" (no rOpH3OHTaJTbHOHi OCH) 6eaHerluHx p rpOpueHTOB HaceJIeHHS npH paH?KHpOBaHHH no aoxogaM. 3Ta KPHBaAs MBJieTCA BoCxOJgi5eHi H xapaKTepH3yeTcA yBejiHqiHBaioIuetICA KpyTH3HOf4. Bonee 4 opMajIbHoe onHcaHHe CBOtCTB KpHBOH JlopeHua MO)KHO HaHTH B pa6oTax Gastwirth (1971) H Kakwani (1980a). HanpHMep, paBHMe'cs 0,5, KaK 3TO qaCTO HMeeT MeCTO B eBponeHCKHX HcCne)joBaHHAx, Ha KOTOpmLe ccbTiaeTcA Atkinson (1991). PaCCMOTpHM, HanpHMep, npoCTerIIIHR noKa3aTenb 6eRHOCTH - 4ojuo muoeR, C'1HTaiOIUHXCA 6eRHElMH ("HHteKc IHcjieHHocTH 6eaHbIx"). HpegnonoxKHM, qTO Mbl XOTHM CpaBHHTb 6exHOCTb B AByX COCTOHHAIX A H

nepepacnpeAeenIAoTcA JIHIU6 MmewAy caMiMH 6eRHEIMH. 3aBHCHT

cpeAHero

HOpMaTHBHEJMH CyxKAeHHAMH o6

)IeTaAH nocJieaHero YTBepx oTHocHTenBHOH

6eaHOcTH

apH4MeTHqecKorO

IpH

AaHHoM cnyiae

oHeHb XOpOIUO OTHOCHTeJ1bHorI 6exrHOCTH.

3HaMeHHA,

P(k, L)

cOrJIacyeTCsI

)eHHA qoYDHbi 6blTB HeCKOJIbKO H3MeHeHbl,

yCTaHaBJIHBaeTCA

AOJIAX

MegHaHbE,

3TOM pe3yJIbTaT 6yaeT 3aBHceTb OT TOrO,

He TOYIbKO He OCHOBHbIMH

ecaii OT

qepTa

cpeRHero

KaK 6yaeT H3MeHSTbcS

(cpeaHAA OTHoiueHHe MeAHaHbl H cpeAHeH apwuMeTHIecKoH ripH B03pacTaHHH nociiexaHe BonBmue pacnpeAejeHHA). aCHMMeTpHH AHHaMHKH OT 3aBHCHT oiepeAb, CBOIO B apHiqMeTH,eCKaA, c'eTOB CO c6pacblBaTm He ciie)lyeT pa3yMeeTCA, HHMerO B o6weM Hi ejioM CKa3aTb Hejib3A, XOTA, CpeRHerO. BO3MO)KHOCT6 Toro, xHTO HOKa3aTenji 6eAHocTH OKa)KeTCA 603pacmaiou#eu4FYHKumre

Ewje

pa3 nOaqMepKHeM: HeACHO, KaKoe 3Ha'eHHe cneayer npHaaBaTb TaKOMY cnoco6y H3MepeHHA.

- 3TO MoryT 6blTbpa3RHqHbie cTpaHlI, pa3JIHqHble perHoHbl, pa3JIHqHbie coLWaJIbHO-3KOHOMHqecKHe rpynnrl UJIH pa3HxlHbIe MoMeHTbl BpeMeHH ,amA OIHOrO H TOrO Ke HacejieHRA. IyCTE LA(HA) H LB(HB) 6 KPHBbIe JlopeHIua cooTBe'rCTBeHHO AIuI A H B. TorJa cqeeTHbie noKa3aTeilH HA H HB YJiYT CBR3aHbi MexKxy co6orl cne3JwIUHM ypaBHeHHeM:

L'A(HA) = k = L'B(HB). 'lacToTbi npH 3aAaaHHOH Rone (3aMeTHM, wTO L'(p)l = x - o6paTHas BeJiHqHHa KyMynATHBHOrO pacnpeaeneueH HaCeiieHHS, HaxoJISIuefcs HHKe HeKoTopori TO'KH x; CM. Gastwirth, 1971.) lIpeInonoHKHM Teneph, 'TO cpeAHee 3HaqeHHe A npeBElllaeT cpeAHee 3HaneHHe B H xITO pacnpenejieHHe A AOMHHHpyeT HaA pacnpeAeneMHem B no JlopeHLuy (T. e. HepaBeHCTBo B COCTOAHHH A HH)Ke, 'eM B COCTO0IHHH B). JAawe npH rCTBHTreJHbie KPHBlie JIopeHLla, npH KoTopUx Co6JHoJIeHHH 3THX yCJOBHui Bcer,a MO)KHO HaHiTH TaKHe Ae HA > HB. HaM,AeHHoe 3HaqeHHe noKa3aTenJ 6eJAHocTH Morno 6El yKa3bEBaTb Ha 6o0iee BbiCOKyio 6efAHOcTE B COCTOAHHH A no CpaBHeHHIO C COCTOYHHeM B, XOTA HepaBCHCTBO H a6cojnoTHaA 6ewHOCTh B COCTOAHHH A OAHO3HaqHO HH)Ke, qeM B COCTOAHHH B. 71 KaK, HallpHMep, B pa6oTe Fuchs (1967). 3TOT noaXog HCnOJIb3OBaH B pA,ge HcciieAOBaHHri, oco6eHHo npHMeHHTeIbHo K pa3BHTEIM cTpaHaM; CM., HanpHMep, pa6oTy Smeeding et al. (1990), ocHOBaHHyIO Ha pe3yjiiTaTaX mCCieCAOBaHHA JAOXOAOB B JIEOKceM6ypre. COOTBeTCTBYOUHM ripHMepOM AISRpa3BHBaioujeRcS

cTpaHEbl

BJIqSeTCA pa6oTa Sahota (1990).

Log of poverty line

7 6.5 -

Actual

Fitted]

5.5

5 4.5

4 3.5 -

+10

4++

3-+

2.5 2

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.6 7 7.5 8 Log of mean consumption

PHCYHOK 1. 'IePTI 6eAHOCTH ansi 36 CTpaH. ;ns Ka)aorl cTpaHBbl qepTa 6eRHOCTH onpenaeneHa B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT o61eMa 'acTHoro nOTpe6neHHs Ha AyIUy HaceaieHHA (cornacHo HaHUHajiEbHBIM CBOaKaM) npH napUTeTe noKynaTeJI6HoA cnoco6HocTH no aaHHbLIM iIpFMepHO Ha 1985 r. AnnpoKcHMrpoBaHHEie 3HaqeHHR OCHOBbIBBalOTC Ha perpeccHH norapHlMa qepTmi 6eaHOcTH B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT KBaJpaTHqeCKOHt 4yHKLUHH norapH4uMa cpeAHero o6feMa noTpe6neHHA. (HCTOMHHK: Ravallion, Datt and van de Walle 1991; 1aaHHmle aBTopa.)

qepTbE

OTMaCTH 3Ta npo6.neMa 6eAHOcTH onpeensIeTcs

nogpa3yMeBaeT, 'TO

Hnm

MeegHaHbI,

Cjie,)CTBHeM npealnoJIo)KeHHS 0 TOM, qTO 3HatIeHHe KaK nocmoAiiuai Aons OT cpeAHero HnIH MeAHaHbi. 3To

ABjiAeTCS

3iaCTH4HOCTb

tiepTb[

6eAHocTH, yCTaHOBneHHOii

OTHOCHTenJbHO cpeAHero

paBHAeTCS

eRHHHLIe. OnpaBaaHHo nH 3TO? ARA no,rOTOBKH oT'eTa World Development Report 3a 1990 r. npOBORHJIOCb HCCJieAOBaHHe 9epT 6erHOCTH B 36 CTpaHax ( KaK pa3BHBaIlbuHxcs, TaK H npOMbIIuJIeHHO pa3BHTbEX) H pe3yiEbTaTbi CpaBHHBanBHCb Co Cpe,RHHMH

o6beMaMH MacTHoro noTpe6jTeHHS B 3THX cTpaHax (World Bank, 1990; Ravallion, Datt and van de Walle, 1991). FloJIyqeHHbie pe3YJ1bTaTbi ripeacTaBneHbl B rpa4iiecKoi 4 opMe Ha PHCYHKe 1. 3JiacTHsHocTb qepTbI 6eAHocTH OTHOCHTenjbHO cpeRHero o6beMa noTpe6YIeHHsl ABHO BO3paCTaeT C pOCTOM nocJieiHero. B cepeaHHe pacripegeneHHA CpeAHHX 3HaMeHHI 9aCTHOrO o6iema noTpe6JJeHHA B oTaeJ1bHbIX CTpaHax 3JnaCTHXHOCTb paBHAeTCA 0,66. OuHaKO B TOqKe cpeRHero noTpe6neHHA (HanpHMep) wnA 14HHZAHH 3j7aCTH'qHOCTb HaMHorO HH>Ke - 0,15. ,Z[ns cpeLHero YPOBH% noTpe6.neHHs B 6eRHerlweg cTpaHe OHa naaae-r ao 0,07. Ho B rpynne BbiCOKOpa3BHTbIX npoMbIwJIeHHb[X CTpaH 3JTacTHMHoCTb rpHMepHO paBHSeTCS etaHHHLue. 143 aHanH3a PHCYHKa 1 TaKwKe BbiTeKaeT O1RHH B03MO)KHbiH noRxODI K yCTaHOBJIeHHiO pa3yMHOU HHuKHeH rpaHHUEi 'sepTbi

a6coJnoTHoA 6eAHocTH ARA rno6anbHoro CpaBHHTeJIbHOrO aHanH3a 6enHocTH: qepTy 6eAHocTH cJietyeT npOBO,1HTb Ha ypOBHe, pacCsHTaHHOM wis HaH6onee 6erHoA CTpaHbl (Ravallion, Datt and

van de Walle, 1991). 3To aaeT cnexyiowuyio Uw4py - nlpHMepHO LejioBeKa B MecALu npH napHTeTe noKynaTeJIbHoIi cnoco6HocTH.

23 AojijI. CLIA Ha o0,Horo

TaKHM o6pa3oM, pe3yJIbTaTbLi

aHHOrO cpaBHHTejhbHoro aHamH3a 6eAHocTH B pa3YIH4HbIX

6yAeT HMeTb CTpaHax AexCTBHTeCbHO CBHAeTenbCTByeT 0 TOM, qTO qepTa peambHOrl 6eJHOCTH AJSI CaMbiX HO TeHAeHIjHIO K rIOBbiu1eHHIO HO mepe pOCTa o6wero )KH3HeHHoro YpOBHA HaceJIeHHM,

6eXIHbIX CTpaH TeMnb 3TOrO rIOBbIUIeHHA 6yAyT MexJeHHbIMH

. UoAXOA, 6a3HpywOiHrICs

o6igero "a6conuoTHorH 6e,HocTH", npH KOTOpOM qepTa 6eRHocTR He MeHAeTCA C H3MeHeHHeM CTpaHaM, )KH3HeHHOrO ypOBHSI, nO-BHAHMOMy, B 6onbineii CTeneHH npHMeHHM K HH3KQLIOXOXOHbIM Torga KaK KOHLXenLHA "OTHOcHTejlbHOi 6eAHocTH" 6o0nee yMeCTHa AJIA Bb1COKOaOXOAHbIX CTpaH. Bonee Toro, npeAnonoxKeHHe o npOHOPIHOHaJibHOCTH MmexKZy qepTOH 6eRHOcTH H nOKm3aTeneM

6JiarocoCTORHHA , maCTO BcTpeqaiouweeCs B nHTepaType o pa3BHTbIX CTpaHax, Cy)sA no Bcemy, noniytaemyio npH 3TOM BnOJIHe pe3OHHO ARS BbICOKOpa3BHTbIX HpOMbliujIeHHbIX CTpaH, XOTA o HepaBeHcTBe H nOHST4H o6bIqHbix paMKaX B OL1eHKY OqeHb TPYAHO HHTrpnpeTHPOBaTb 6eAHOCTH4.

Cy6beKmu6Hblf nocXoc K onpeoemenuio 1tepmbi 6eoocmu ,;aHHbi lO ioAxoa OTKpbITO npH3HaeT, WTO rno6oe onpegeneH4e qepTbi 6eAHOcTH B CHJIy CaMOrl nPHPOjbI H3MePIeMoro qBjieHHA, OCHOBbIBaiOTCS Ha cy6'beKTHBHbIX CY)KAeHHAX nIoReri o TOM, wTO npeACTaBjseT co6oA o6iuecTBeHHo npHeMJ]eMbiH MHHHMaJbHbIH YPOBeHb XKH3HH B TOM HnH HHOM KOHKpeTHOM o6lUeCTBe. B npeAbiAyuAeM pa3,ene 6bu1o nOKa3aHO, 'TO pa3HbIe CTpaHbI CKJIOHHbl HCnOJIb3OBaTb pa3JIH'IHbIe 3HaqeHHS

qepTbi 6ejHocTH H ITO 6o0iee 6oraTble CTpaHbi

o6bvqHO HMeoT 6o0iee BbICOKHe 3Ha4eHHS MepTbi 6eIHoCT4. To we camoe MO)KHO CKa3aTb H o rnoAix. B OCHOBe AaHHOrO noAxozaa3aacTymo newKaT nojIyqeHHbie B xoAe o6cneAOBaHHs OTBeTbI H3 Ha Bonpoc, TaKoro THna, KaK, HanpHMep, yKa3aH HH)Ke (nepe#pa3Hpys 4opMynHpOBKy, B3ATyIO pa6oTbl Kapteyn et al, 1988):

"KaKofi ypo6eHb ooxoi,a JiuKnO cmi cCumaeme a6cwiomMnblM MUiUMyyMoM, noc6pasyMe6am, 6 tmo npu MeUbZueM 6oxo6e Sbi npocmo He cMoe71u bl C60ocUmb KOHUbI c KoHliaMu? ".

OTBeTaX Ha 3TOT BOnpOC npOABRseTCS TeHAeHUHAS

K npAMOH 3aBHCHMOCTH pa3mepa

MHHHMaJIbHoro goxoaa OT 4aKTHqeCKHX AOXOIOB peCnoHAeHTa. louiee TOFO, 6onbInUHcCTBO HCCjieAOBaHHi4, B KOTOpblX Hcnojib3oBanCA 3TOT BOHpOC, BbISBHJH 3aBHCHMOCTb, nOKa3aHHyio Ha PHCyHKe 2 (Kapteyn et al, 1988). OTMeqeHHas Ha 3TOM PHCYHKe TO'qKa Z ABJIAeTCS oqeBH,IHbIM "KaHHAHaTOM" Ha "THTyJI" qepTbI 6eaHOCTH: JiioAH c

gOXOAaMH

Bblllle TOqKH Z CKJOHHbl Cq4HTaTb

ce6gs AOCTaTOqHO MaTepHaJibHO o6eCneqeHHbIMH, B TO BpeMA KaK Te, 'bH AOXOabi He 3TO4 OTMeTKH, CKJIOHHbi noJlaraTb, qTO HX qOXOAbi HeAOCTaToqHO BbICOKH.

ROTArHBaIOT

rioAxoA HnH ero pa3HOBHAHOCTH HCnIOJIb3OBajHCb B psue eBpOHeHCKHX cTpaH (Hagenaars, 1987a), OqHaKO MHe He H3BeCTHbi nOIIbITKH ero npHMeHeHHS1 XOTA 6bl B OaHOA aHHbilH

pa3BHBatouAerICS

CTpaHe.

BbICOKOMOHeTH3HpOBaHHOH,

72 KaK BcerFa,

MO)KeT

B MoxKeT

3KOHOMHKa

CTpaHax, B03HHKHYTb

6bm onaCHbIM aejaTb KaKUe-jiH60

Heo6XOAHMOCTb

BbIBOAbl

KOTOPbIX

3aMeHbl

O cMeLueHHH

ABnAeTCS

4 OpMyuIHpOBKe

qepTbi 6eCHocTH CO BpemeHem

pa3JInIqHEIM no mepe 3KoHoMHMecKoro pocTa pa3BHBaIoIUHXCM CTpaH TOJIbKO JIHWUb Ha OCHOBaHUUH gaHHbiX nO ROXOJIHaA 'TO onpeueinuH, 1973) (Kilpatrick, rpynnam cTpaH, ripeCcTaBneHHbIX Ha PHcyHKe 1. KHnnaTpHK coOTBeTCTByeT npHMepHO qTO 0,6, paBHAeTcs BpeMeHu 3JiaCTHqHOCTb qepT 6eAHOCTH B CLIUA c Te'eHHeM TOMy 3HaMeHHiO, KOTOpoe MO)KHO 6blllo 6bl O)wmg,Tb Ha ocHoBaHHIH PHCyHKa 1. MHe He H3BecTHbI KaKme-Ju6o 20 CpaBHHMbie BpeMeHHbIC pSAbl J"A pa3BHBaiOLUeACs CTpaHbi, XOTS ciieayeT 3aMeTlTb, qTO 3a nocneaume 6euHoCTH qepT IcnOi3yeMbIx nIeT He 6bmo OTMeMeHO HHKaKoro peajlbHoro yBeJiH'ieHHsA luHpOKO H Dandekar and (COOTBeTCTBylo0IIX qepTam 6eaHocTH, BnepBbxe onpegeneHHbIM B pa6oTax Bardhan, 1970,

Rath, 1971). 36

BbimenpHBeaeHHOro Bonpoca CJIOBa "flOXoA" CnOBOM "KOnH4eCTBO TOBapOB", B pe3ynbTaTe tiero MoiKerT B03HHKHyTb npo6JleMa oueHKH CTOHMOCTH 3THX TOBapOB. HeACHO TaKce, KaKoe HOpMaTHBHoe 3HaMeHHe Aon0KHbi HMeTb CpaBHHTejibHbie oueHKH 6eAHocTM, npH KoT0pb1XaaHHb161i

MeToA npHMeHeH oT,ejfbHO K KaOA U3 cpaBHHBaeMbIX CHTyauti. TeM He MeHee, B 6y,aylueM npu o6cneAoBaHH ceMeeH B pa3BHBaioWHxca CTpaHax, HeCOMHeHHO, cneayeT paccmaTpHBaTb B03MO)KHOCTb BKJ1EOteHHR B HHX BOnpOCOB O Cy6beKTHBHOUI oueHKe 'iepTbi 6eaHoCTH.

KoM6uHupo6anl,ie -iepmbl 6eg)nocmu HennoxHe pe3yJIbTaTbi npH lHCnoJb3oBaHHHi rno6oro H3 paCCMOTpeHHbIX BbUXle nOaXOIgOB K onpeAej1eHH[o 'epTbl 6eAHOCTH aaeT paccMOTpeHHe no KpaiiHeU mepe ABYX B03MO)KHbIX 3HaneHHi u qepTbr 6eAHocTH. KaK y)Ke 6bulo oTMetCHO BbIlle, HH)KHAA rpaHHiua Morna 6bl HHTepnpeTHpoBaTbcs

KaK "LepTa CBepX6eAHOCTH", T. e. MOKHO 6bz.no 6bl npeAnfJIO)KHTb,

WTO

JJOEAH, 'qbH paCXOREb1 Ha noTpe6neHHe He ROTArHBaioT Zgo 3TOU OTMeTKH, 6yayT )KHTb B YCJ1OBH4AX cepbe3Horo PHCKaRJIA cBoero 32A0p0BbM BCJiegCTBHe HeaoeaaHHS (Lipton, 1983, 1988). B caMoM Aejie, yx4HTbIBaSl npOH3BOJIbHOCTb ,aHHoro noAxoixa, HMelOTCS BeCKHe npl4UHbH *zuui paCCMOTpeHHA ROCTaTOtqHO UHpOKoro ZHanla3oHa 3HaqeHHIi o6ieMOB nOTpe6JIeHHs HJ1UI AOXO0B. I4MeHHo 3Ta OCHOBHaS HQeA ne)KHT B OCHOBe "AOMHHaHTHOrO noaxoaa", KOTOpblri 6 ygeT 6o0nee nogpo6Ho o6cyw4aTbcA B Pa3,geAe 2.6.

Subjective minimum

income

-"45

Actual income

PHCYHoKc 2. Cy67.eIKTHBHa qCepTa 6eAHOCTH. JIEoH C aOXOLaaMH Bblwe TOxKH Z B o6feM ciiymae CqHTalOT ce6A aOCTaTOqHO MaTepHahIbHO o6ecneqeHHbIMR, B TO BpeMA KaK Te, IbH ROXOabl He ROTSrHBaIoT aO TOqKH Z, CKJIOHHbLI CIHTaTb ce6a Maanoo6ecneqeHHbIMI4.

KoM6H4HHpOBaHHe KOHLfenILuH "a6ConIoTHori" H "OTHOCHTejibHOii" 6eAHocTH BJIASeTCS OJaHHM 13 npOcTeriuHx H, Ha MOH B3risia, Haii6onee npHBneKaTeibHb[x cnoco6oB 3aaaHHs MHOKCeCTBeHHbIX 3HaieHHR 4epTbi 6eAHocMT npu BbirflHeHIM cpaBHuTejibHbIx oueHOK 6 eAHOCTH (XOTA, HaCKOJTEKO MHe H3BeCTHo, AO CHX nop 3TOT cnoco6 HHKeM He HCnoHb3oBaJCA). Ahs Kax)oOi U3 CpaBHHBaeMbJX CHTyaLtHH CKa)KeM, ARAS Ka)KfaOO U3 AByX nepUHOOB BpeMeH14 -

YCTaHaBBHBaEOTCS )KH3HH

YPOBHS

ABe 'iepTbu

KaXC)OFO

ARS

Ha OCHOBe nOKa3aTeisl

6eRHOcTH, OgHa H3 KOTOpb1X 43HKCHpyeTCS UepHOAOB

BpeMeHH

(a6cOJTIoTHaSA

KOHLuenuHS),

BTOpaS

npegCTaBIsAeT co6oil qepTy OTHocHTCeIbHOH 6eAHocTH, oTpaKaIoLUyo nilo6bie H3MeHHHSA o6iiero B )KH3HeHHOrO YPOBHA HacenIeHHSI H, CIIeaOBaTeJIbHo, npeRCTasBeHHS 0 HOHMTHH "6eaHoCT" KOHKpeTHOM o6luecTBe. TaKHM o6pa3oM, npmCcpaBHeHHH aBYX nepHOaOB BpeMeHH

;xaHHOM

qHHaMHKH

aHaIH3

HarJSUAHbilH

HPOBeCTH

MO)KHO

KaK

TaK

a6CoRnoTHoHi,

Bcerga

OTHOCHTeAbHOH

6e1HOCTH.

Pe3boMe aHamn3 6eHocTm cjy-iaqx, KorAa Heo6xoaHMo npOBeCTH cpaBHHTenbHbih AOJDKHbl YIO31y4HTb cTpaHa HnH perFo0H KaKOHi HanpHMep, Koraa Heo6xo)iHMo onpegei1HT6, 6 IlOJIy'HTb nO3BOJSieT eIHOCTH noMolb, - camoe BaKHOe, Ha MOH B3rJ1AI, 3TO TO, wTO 4epTa COCTOATeJbHYIO CpaBHHTeiTbHyiO OUeHKy B TOM CMbICJIe, 'TO oueHKa 6ex4HOcTH nuo6oro qenoBeKa

Bo MHOrHX

3aBHCHT TOJlbKO OT ero )KH3HeHHoro

H He 3aBHCHT OT TOFO,

YPOBHS

no,Arpynne OH

K KaKOM

qepTa 6e4HOcTm HpHHanjie)KHT. AR1A ,aOCTHHCeHHA cOcTOATeJIbHOCTH OueHKH HeO6XoqHMo, qTo6bi

YCTaHaBJ1HBan1acb Ha OCHOBe

YPOBHS )KH3HH. 3To TpyLAHO o6ecne'HTb 3MnIHpHIqeCKHM 1ITO MHOrHe flOnyiIRpHbie MCTO,bI onpeAeneiHHA 'epTbl

rioKa3aTeJIeH

nyyTeM, nO3TOMY COBepuieHHHO OqeBHAHO,

KOTOpbie 6e)iHOCTH He OTBe'aEOT gaHHOMY Tpe6OBaHHIo. CyiueCTBY1OT pa3HOBHAHOCTH MeTOaOB, H, KaK HOBblIIJaEOT BepOSTHOCTb rloly'eHHSA COCTOATeJIbHbIX CpaBHHTne>jHbIX OUeHOK 6eIHOcTH

npaBHjio, BnOnIHe

MOryT 6blTb

CyLUeCTBOBaHHe Henoqaioiui4xcs

npI

peajiH3OBaHbi OLueHKe

HMEIOiIHXCS

;eTepMHHaHT

AlaHHbIX.

0,RHaKO,

y"HTbIBaS

6narocOcTOsHHq, HH OA1HH MeTOA HHKOFrqa

'epTbl He 6yaeT 6ecCCOpHbiM. fIpH3HaBaS TOT (aKT, XITO Ha nlpaKTHKe llpH OflpeaejieHHH J1u6oii 6egHOcTH Bceraa HeH36e)KHa Ta Hnm HHaS CTeneHb npOH3BOJIbHOCTH, cneayeT 6biTb oco6eHHo HeBepHbliH ilar MO)KeT OTpHLuaTejbHO CKa3aTbcS Ha nOPSAUKOBbIX OCTOpO)KHbIM, H160 nuo6o a Be,ab OHH-TO 06bEqHO H OKa3blBafOT HaH6OJTbLuee BJIH5HHe

CpaBHHTeJ1bHbIX O1\eHKaX 6eRHTocT, Ha nOJIHTHKy. Mbl BepHeMcq K

2.5

o6cy[KAeHHIo 3TOFO BOnpOCa B Pa3aene

ITOrOBi6le OixeHKH 6eJHOCTH

JaBaHTe Tenepb npe,arono)KHM, Bbi6paH

2.7.

H oUeHeH

,aOMOXO3SACTBy,

npHMeHHTenJbHO

MTO

qepTa

WTO

nOKa3aTenJb

K KaJKOMY

6eRHocTH

HH¢OpMaLjHIO B noKa3aTeIIH H3MepeHHS

HHAHBH4yajIbHOro

BKxnOieHHOMy

H3BecTHa.

KaK

6narocOcTOsHHA IeJIOBeKy

Bbi6opKy

arper4HpOaTb

o6o614HTb

AJIH

3Ty

eaHOCTH AnA KaA'Iloro H3 pacripezeneHHH, KOTOpble

6yryT cpaBHI4BaTbCA.

Io7Ka3ameAu 6eoHocmu 73 I43BecTHo MHoro ony6nHKOBaHHbIx pa6OT , B KOTOPbIX pacemaTpHBaEOTCA noKa3aTeJH 31 He 6yAyT o6cycaTE,Tb Bce nOKa3aTejTH 6eRHOcT4, KOTOpbIe KOrFa-nH6o 6e)xHOCTH.

HcnOJnb3OBaAHCb

HnH

npeflafarJIHCb,

BMeCTO

3TOrO

CKOHL1eHTPHPYIO

HeCKORbKHX HaH6onee ripefcTaBHTeObHEix n0Ka3aTeJISX H paCCMOTpi KaX(KOrO

CBOe

BHHMaHHe

aOCTOHHCTBa H He;IOCTaTKH

H3 HHX.

rlpocTeriuuHM (H no-npe)KHeMy Ha6oJIee IU1HpOKO HCnOJIb3yeMbiM) OJIoS 6eeiHblx, onpegenseMbIA KaK 6ef,HOcTH SAmeTcsi uH7eKc 'uc}zeHoCmu

nOKa3aTen3eM HaceIIeHHS,

73 Henroxiie o630pb inpecTaBjeHb B pa6oTax Foster (1984), Atkinson (1987) H Hagenaars (1987b).

KOTOPOrO o6beM noTpe6JieHHq,

HJIH Apyroii

npHMeHHMbIH nOKa3aTenJb YpOBH31 )KH3HH, (y) MeHb1iie

qepTbI 6eRHOCTH (Z). npeq1nojiOXKHM, 'TO coriaCHO 3TOMy onpeAeneHl4o q nlioleg ABJIAlIOTCA 6e,qHbiMH npH o6wer 'qHCjieHHOCTH HacenfeHHS n. Torga HH,eKC 'iHcjieHHOCTH 6e,AHbix(H) 6y,eT onpeaeJisiTbcs rIpOCTO KaK AOnSJ HacejieHHA, ctHTaiowascI 6eAHoR:

(2)

H=q n

Mo)KeT JIH 3TOT HHqeKC C'IHTaTbCS XOpOmIHM nOKa3aTeJIeM 6eAHocTH? B HeKOTOPbIX cnytiasix - ia. OH nIerOK B HOHHMaHHH H HcrIojib3OBaHHH Ha npaKTHKe. ALInI5 HCKOTOpbIX BH3ROB CpaBHHTenJbHbIX OLjeHOK 6egHocTH - HanpHMCp, B cnyHae OueHKH o6nmero nporpecca B COKpaiHeHHH

6exHocTH

OH Mo)KeT 6blTE

npefIbi,yiieM pa3,aejie, ero

BniOJIHe ageKBaTHbIM

Bcergia npeAlIO'ITHTJeIbHee

(XOTs,

KaK 6E,mo OTMemqeHO B

paCC4HTbIBaTb Ha OCHOBe

XOTSi

bl AByX iHn HHbIX nOjiHTHHeCKHX Mep, HCIIOJb3OBaHHe HHaeKca 'IHCjiHHOCTH 6eRHbIX MO)iKeT llpHBeCTH K cepbe3HbIM norpelUHOcTsAM. TTo6bE InOHITb, noHemy 3TO TaK, rperiOjTO)KHM, MTO KaKOri-JIH6o lepT 6eRHocTH).

OaHaKo B HeKOTOPbIX cjJyqaAx, BKjiOioaS alHaIH3 BJIHSHHSA Ha 6eaHbiX TeX

6eZtHAK BPYrF CTaHOBHTCS ewe 6e)RHee.

KaK 3TO OTPa3HTCS Ha oUeHKe 6e,HocTH? Hi•aK. qHCjieHHOCTH 6e,iHbix a6cOiIToTHO He'yBCTBHTeIieH K pa3JIH'l4AM B rFiy6HHe 6eaHOcTH. C

3TOH TO4KH 3peHHS

JIyq'UHM

t3oxooa, aeipuz,um nompe6&eHux),

ABJIAeTCA HOKa3aTeJlb

-2Jy

UUlbl

4HHgeKC

6ec)nocmu ()ej/uIIum

KOTOPOrO JIe)KHT pa3HHLua Me)Kgy MepTOi 6eRHOcTH H YPOBHeM COOTBCTCTBYIOwero nOKa3aTeniSi 6narococTosIHHsl (nOTpe6neHHe, pacXoREi, ,OxO,bI) 6 B OCHOBe

Ce,HbIX. OH oTpaJKaeT cpeQHee paCCTOAHHC, Ha KOTOPOM HaXOASTCS 6e4Hbie OTHOCHTeiibHO qepTbl

6eAHOcTH, H 6naro,aps 3TOMY ,;aeT 6onee TOIHoe npeCTaBaeHHe o rny6HHe 6eRHOcTM. 1lTo6bi UOHSTb CMbICJI 3TOrO nOKa3aTeJIS, npeariojO)KHM, MTO 06T,eMbi HOTpe6jieHHS pacflTOIO)KEHbI B BO3pacTaoIeO rIopAKe cIiegyOuiHM o6pa3oM: 6egrHeiumHe HMeEOT o6ibeM noTpe6iieHHq yI, rIM MeHee 6eaHbie - Y2 H T. ., a HaHMeHee 6eAHbie - Yq, npHWeM 3HaqeiHHe nociieqHero (no onpeienieHr4O) He Mo)KeT npHBbEIwlaTb qepTbl 6eqHOCTH z. Toraa HH4eKC pa3pblBa 6eaHOCTH (PG) MO)KHO paCCIHTaTb cneapYouHM o6pa3oM:

(3)

PG = --

n i= l

TaKHM o6pa3oM, cpeIAH

(I - Yj) z

PG npeacTaBJ]SeT co6oi0 cpegHeB3BeeHHoe

HaceJIeHHA

(rAe

He6egHbie

xapaKTePH3ylOTCS

3HaleHHeie4IHUHTa

HyneBbIM

pa3pblBOM

noTpe6neHHA

6eRHOcTH).

3To

BblpaiKeHHe MO)KHO TaKKe nepenHcaTb B cneyioeM BHAe:

(4)

rme

PG = I H,

'aCTO

4~OpMynOrl: ge4HLHTa

HMeHYeTCSq "Ko344HmeHTOM ge(PHuTa ROXOAOB" H onpeqensieTCA ciejyiou1eg JIZ/Z, rAe PLz o6o3Ha'aeT CpeRlHHe aOXOgbi 6eaHblX. OqHaKO K034¢41HUHeHT

I = 1 -

AOXOROB He MoXKeT cHHTaTbCS

nolemy 3TO TaK, ripe;inojiO)KHM, 'TO

nOKa3aTefleM 6eaHocTH. 4 To6bI rOiHTb, KaKOrl-jiH60 qenioBeK, HaXORqIuHriCs PTb HH7Ke qepTbl XOpOHIIIM

Toro, tITo6bi 6egHOCTH, yiywaeT cBoe MaTepHajibHoe oIoOo)KeHHe B aOCTaTomHoii CTTHeHH AAS BcjieAcTB4e qero BIbIiTH U3 6elHOcTH. CpeAHHe AOXOabi oCTaBIIIHXCA 6e4HbIX COKpaTATCA, H CTan >UHTb Jly'e Ko344HiXHeHT ge(HLurTa AOX,00B yBeBlH4HTCsl. 14 XOTX 0nUH H3 6eaHAlKOB cReiiaTb 6EI 6buio Henib3S noKa3aTeJIn 3TorO HHKTO H3 HHX He CTaI )KHTb xy)Ke, Ha OCHOBaHHH 3aKJIiOqHTb, HTO nPOH301HIfO KaK pa3 BbIBOa o COKpaigeHUH 6egHocTH, a, HanpOTHB, cneqoBanio 6h1 aOXOOB nOMHO)KHTE Ha o6paTHoe. 3Ta npo6neMa He Bo3H4KaeT, ecnIH Ko34xHuHUeHT fle4uXHTa ero nojiyql4TCS PG; npH Tex we o6cToATenbcTBax HH;eKC qHcJieHHOCTH 6egHbIx, B pe3yJ6bTaT-e

3TOT nOKa3aTeJlb HOKmeKeT CHUKeHiHe 6eIHoCTH.

(PG) Mo)KeT TaKwKe CRY)KHTb 1HaHKaTopoM B03MO)KHOCTH 3aTpaTbI Ha flHKBigamHH 6eXHOCTH noCpeICTBoM agpeCHOA rIOMOHU 6e4HbIM. MUHUMcvzblbe

IHHAeKC r.ny6HHbi

6e,HOCTH

ipOCTO KaK CyMMa nHKBHIaIHEO 6eRHOCTH C noMoIbIO aapeCHbIX TpaHC4epTOB paCCvATbIBaIOTCS BCeX HeqOCTaIOUHX AOXOAOB BCeX HHAHBHRyanbHbIX 3HaqeHHA noKa3aTerni rJiy6HHbl 6eX4HocTH ( c.iyqae onpeqeuAeTcA, aaHHOM B HuH o6,beMOB noTpe6neHHu) cyiWeCTByIOWLIX cpeaH HacenIeHHA. aOCTHr lepTbI 6egHOcTH. CKOJIbKO KaxcLOMy HeO6xOAUMO AOrnaTHTb, qTO6bi ero ypoBeHb )KU3HH 3 B pacnOPSAKeHHH CyMMapHbie 3aTpaTbi COCTaBAT (Z - ptZ)-q. TO, HeCOMHCHHO, npeqlnOJlaraeT, HTO ecJ1H YJIHBJIsTbCA, CTOHT He Ho npaBHTenlcTBa HMeeTCS 6onuoIoi o6fteM HH4opMauHH.

o6HapyxcHTCi,

wTO pacxoabl

Ha coKpalIeHiHe

6e)HocTH y

npaBHTeJIbcTBa,

nOJIHTHKa KOTOpOrO

3TU pacHeTHble 3aTpaTbi. HMeeT 6OnbmIor YKJIOH B nOJIE3y 6eaHbIX, 3HaqHTeJIbHO llpCBblIUaOT

Ha JiHKBiaaHL1iO KaqecTBe apyroii KpaiiHOCTH MO)KHO paCCMOTpeTb MaKCUMa,7bHble 3aTpaTbI He H3BeCTHO 0 TOM, KTO 6eaHoQTH, npeanoniaraA, HTO nO1HTH4qeCKOMY PYKOBOaCTBY HHielerO BbHilaTHTb ABJUi,eTCA 6eHblM, a KTO - HeT. B 3TOM ciiylae npaBHTeJlbCTBY llp1UIuIOCb 6EJ HHKTO He 'qTO TOM, B yBepeHHbIM 6bITb KaBX(AOMY TlejiOBeKy geHe)KHyfO CyMMy, paBHYIO Z, aa6bi HpUHiTH MO)KHO (3), ABJI.qeTCA 6e,aHbiM: cyMMapHbLe 3aTpaTbi COCTaBAT z-n. AHaru3HupyA ypa3HeHHe 6eAHoCTH npuH i,eanbHoA K 3aKJIEO'leHHIO, HITO OTHOuieHHe MHHHMallbHbIX 3aTpaT Ha uHKBHUaLUHiO UeJi npu 6e3aapecHOM Ke Te Ha 3aTpaTaM agpeCHoi HaipaBjieHHOCTH nOMOuWu K MaKcHMajibHbIM flOKa3aTeJib 6eqHOCTH AaHHblri xapaKTepe HOMOUIIH KaK pa3 H paBHAeTCA PG. TaKHM o6pa3oM, 6 6 paCXOgOB Ha 0pb y c 6egHOCTbwo, ABJIAeTCS eDie H HHUHKaTOpOM nomeruuaWIbHou 3KOHOMHH ,OCTHraeMori 6naroAapA aApecHO HianpaBieHHocTH nlomouni. Pa3yMeeTcq, peajlH3aUHSI 3TOU noTeHuHaJIbHOH B03MO)KHOCT4 Ha

O0IHHM

HegocTaTKOB

npaKTHKe - 3TO COBCeM fOKa3aTenii

rny6HHb*

ApyroH Bonpoc.

6eRHOcTH

qBJIneTCA

TO,

tITO

cpeaH HeHMyIuIIx. nO3BoJI.qeT y6eaHTenbHbIM o6pa3oM y4ecTb pa3jiH'IHSI B ocmpome 6eiHOCTH

HanpHMep, JBe cXeMbLi pacnpeaeneHHq nOTpe6jieHum AnA %4eTbipex 'IenOBeK; z = 3 (TaK 'ITO pacnpe,aeieHHe A - (1,2,3,4) H pacnpe,xeneHme B - (2,2,2,4). [IpH qepTe 6eRHOcTH 0,25. O,iHaKo = PG 3HameHHeM OJuHaKOBbIM H = 0,75 B o6o0x cny"aqx) A H B xapaKTepH3yIOTCA PacCMOTpHM,

WTO HOTpe6uIAeT 6eAHerimHi 'ejiOBeK B pacnpeaeneHHH A noTpe6isleT JIHIUEb nOJIOBHHy OT Toro, B KaK caMbIir 6eHbir npeAcTaBHTenb pamnpeenefeHSiA B. MO)KHo paccmaTpHBaTb pacnpeaeueHHe 6eaHoro 'eIjOBeKa K non"yeHHOe H3 pacnpegeneieHH A B pe3yJIbTaTe TpaHCmepTa OT HaHMeHee rUy6HHbi nOKa3aTeJIeM HaH6ojiee 6e4HoMy. TaKoii TpaHCmepT HHKaK He 3a4iKcHpyeTCA

6er4HOcT4. 1976, 1981) IpexiowKn 6onee ny'-IuHA fOKa3aTenib 74 "OCTpOTOH4 6eLHOCT4" H onpeensieMbmA cniegymOeii fOpMyJIOr4 : CeH (Sen,

6eqHOCTH, HMeHyeMbiH

Anand (1977, 1983), Kakwani CM. TaKa(e BaPHaLIUHH HHaeKCa CeHa, npeano?KeHHbie B pa6oTax Thon (1979), (1980b) H Blackorby and Donaldson (1980). 40

PS = H[I + k(l - I)GP],

rme

k = q/(q + 1) (CTpeMHTCA

6eAiHbix; cniegyiouiyio: AJIA

1 rpH 60JTbh1HX 3Ha,eHHAx q), a GP o6o3Ha4aeT

6e.zHbEMH HeT HepaBeHCTBa, 3Ta 4opMyJla npeo6pa3yeTcs B 3-ToT noKa3aTenb, oaHaKo, He yIoBJIeTBopSeT O;ZHOMy Tpe6OBaHHIo,

PS = PG.

KOTOpoe S1AAS rPOCTOTbi 6yay Ha3blBaTb CBOHCTBO "a AgHTHBHOCTH": OHO OTHOCHTenjbHO

e,RHOCTH

rpoBepKe

aaeT

aXUHTHBHOCTb

CBS3aHHbIX

cpaBHHTeJIbHbIMH

PAj KOHuenTyaJTHblX H npaKTHqeCKHx

'Docmepa-Fpupa-Top6eKa (P2 ),

6eAHocTH 3HaMeHHS

noKa3aTeisl

3To He 'TO MepTbi

HanpHMep,

rny64HEbi

noKa3aTeJieH

nOCpe,4CTBOM

6eRHOCTH y

OCTpOTEl 6eRHocTH ABJSIeTCS

KOTOPOFO

npH oueHKe COBOKynHOHi caMH Ha ce6s

6eRHbEx B3BeIIIHBalOTCSI

cyMMa

HHOe, KaK B3BeiHeHHaS

ejIHocTH),

6eAHocTH,

KOTOPbIX A

To ecTE:

KBaJxpaT).

(5)

oL1eHKaMH

npeHMylueCTB, 0

2.6.

O.aHHM H3 HaH6oJ0ee IPOCTbIX a=HTHBHbiX

(Bo3BOWITTCl B

qTo

COBOKyrIHaA 6eRHOCTb AOJ)KHa paBHITbCS B3BemeHHOr4 pa3JiHqHbIX nori pynnax o6iuecTBa 7 5 . npH nocTpoeHlHH npocHnefi

rHnOTe3,

UejibIi

paccKa)Ky HHKe B Pa3aene

noKa3aTenjib

npegycMaTpHBaeT,

4HCjieHHOCTH HaceIieHHA

cyMMe ypOBHeii 6egHocTH B 6

HHaeKC A)KHHH

MeX)Iy

eCJnH

rAe B

BecOBbIX

POJIH

noKa3aTeJlio rny6HHe 6eAHocTH,

10%,

BecoBoiH Ko33cHliHeHT

3HaqeHHri r.ny6HHbI 6e4HocTH(B

Ko344HUHeHToB paBHOMY

10%

BbECTynaIOT OT 'epTbT

POinOPIUHH OT

caMH 3TH 3Ha'eHHl4;

6eaHOCTH,

npHCBaHBaeTCS

50% - BeCoBoH Ko3c344HLCeHT 50% (3aMeTHMm, TO B cnymae PG OHH B3BeUiBaiOTCS O0RHHaKOBO). B BbHlIenpHBeJeHHoM npHmepe c pacnpe,aejieHHAiMH A H B P2 HMeeT 3HaqeHHe 0,14 USI A H 0,08 Wns B, yKa3blBaS Ha 6o0iee rjiy6oKyIo 6eUHocTb B cnyqae A. OAHHHM

HeaOCTaTKOB

I1OKa3aTeJIA P2 ABJ]AeTCS TO, qTO ero PG HnH (oco6eHHo) H76 . Ans cpaBHHTeIEbHbIx oUeHOK

HHTepnpeTHpoBaTb, KaK KJiiO'qeBoe 3HaqeHHe noJIHTH4qeCKHX

a 3TOMY noKa3aTejno, paBHOMy

MmeeT TOT (4aKT, xiTO paH>KHPOBaHHe

KYPCOB

aOJDKHO

Y'IHTblBaTb

I4MeHHo cnoco6Hocm 3T1oro noKa3aTeJIAs aBJbTepHaTHBHbIMH pe3yJTbTaToB, aeniaeT

ero

noJIyIaeMbix

HeIierKO

nepHoO0B, MeCT HnH no

OCTPoTe 6egHocTH.

yime yropSLAo'qHBaTb pacnpeaejieHH4

He TOMHOCTb

TaK

no cpaBHeHHIO C

ero noMouibSo

14HcJ1eHHbIX

TaKHM nojle3HbIM.

TepMHH "aJHTHBHOCTb" HoraC Hcnojib3yeTCR ARA onHCaHHA CoOKynHEIX rioKa3aTenefl, npegcTaBji[OIUAHx co6o0u nonioxKuTeAiHo B3BeLHeHHLie CyMMbI noa3aTeJiel noarpynn, B KOTOpEIX, OAHaKO, B Ka4eCTBe BeCOBbIX Ko3¢4HtuHeHTOB HCHOJIn3yeTcS He aOJIH HaceJIeHIH (npHMepoM ABJIqeTcA HHXCKC, npeanooKeHHBEl B pa6oTe Ray, 1989). 3ujecb. a He 6yay paccMaTpHBaTb nogo6Hble noKa3aTejui. 'lacTo uiA OnHCaHHq noKa3aTeJie, KOTOpmIe ,I nPeIpnOqHTalO Ha3blBaTb1 nPOCTO "aUHTHBHbIMH", TaKAce HCHnOnj3yCTCA TepMHH "aZWHTHBHaA pa3nO)KHMOcTb". AUtHTHBHOCTb TaloKe TecHo CBR3aHa C nOHATHeM "nogrpynnHOA nOCjienOBaTenJbHOCTH" (KOTOpoe

MeToaaMH,

BpeMeHHbEX

HX paHlKHpoBaHHe

6egHocTH, oAHaKo,

o6cyXCgaeTcA

Pa3,qene 2.6).

3TOT noKa3aTemn, MO)KHO paCCMaTpHBaTb KaK CYMMY ABYX CularaeMbIX: CnIaraeMorO, o6ycJIOBjleHHorO rjiy6HHoR 6euHocTH, H cnaraeMoro, o6ycJIoBJmeHHoro HepaBeHC-rBoM cpeRuH 6eaHbix. B 6onee cTpororl MaTeMaTHqeCKori (FopMe 3TO BblrJIAHnT TaK: nYCTb CVP2 - BO3BeJeHHEI,f B KBazpaT K03(NHUHeHT BapHaUHH noTpe6jneHHA

cpeAuH 6ejHbIlx, TorUaa P2 = I-PG + (I - I) (H - PG)CVP2 . 41

i H, PG H P2 CTaHOBHTCSI OxeBHRHOrH HX [IpH cpaBHeHHH BbiiyenpHBeaeHHEJ Xnopmy An o6o6iueHHblH mnacc noKa3aTeJIeH, npegXio)KHTb npaBo HaM o6niaA cTpyKTypa. 3To aaeT onpe,aeJIsIeMbIx 4opMynor:

PG =-

(6)

(1(

n i=l

rge a - HeKoTopblHi HeoTpHuaTenIbHbiH napaMeTp. 3To Kinacc noKa3aTeeier cDocTepa-rpHpaBjiSIeTcAS He 'LeM HHbIM, KaK CpeAHeii BeJiH'4HHOH TopH6eKa (Foster et al., 1984). Pa HHflHBHAyan]bHOrO noKa3aTeJsi 6eHocTH ,R3s Bcero HaceneHHs, KOTOpOe npHHHMaeT 3Ha'eHHe (1 6eQHbIX H 0 nsi He6eRHbIX. (3zaecb MbI HMeeM aeno c npocTeiInmHM H HaH6onee Ans - yi/z)a TOMHbIM MeTO.OM pacieTa Pa npH ycnoBHH, 'TO LIOCTynHblI aHHbIe no OTaejbHbIM JlIOAIM HuH aaHHblIX CrpynnHpOBaHHbIX 4OpMbI HCnORb3yeMbie LUMPOKO 6onee ,oMoxo3.RAcTBaM; oco6bIMH IBjSHOTCSI o6cyxoaloTcsl HH)Ke.) PaccMoTpeHHbie BbIIIe OCHOBHbIe roKa3aTeJiH a = 0, a PG COOTBeTCTByeT 6eAHbIX MqHcYieHHOcTH HHaeKCY Pa; HOKa3aTeiS[ CfyM"aMH zaHHoro

a = 1. ,us )KiH3HeHHoro

Bcex

> 0 nOKa3aTenjb HH14HBHayau1bHOi

YPOBHA

6exaHbIx

('eM

HHAKe

Baru

npeAnoojo)KHTejTbHo SBJDAeTecb). KpoMe Toro, npfH CBOHCTBOM:

qeM

6eAHee

qoMoXo3AHCTBa

HnH

,4OMOXO3SACTBO OKa3blBaeT Ha 3HaMeHHe nOKa3aTenJi

1OKa3aTenJb qBJ13ieTCSq

CTpOrO BblIYKlEIM

6eRHocT4 cTporo ymeHEiIaeTcs c pOCTOM )KH3HeHHbIH ypOBeHb, TeM 6eqHee Bbl

77.

OH TaKlKe o6JiaaaeT TeM

J10H,

6o0JbuIee

cJie)WuiOHM

BJIHAHHe

3TOM ciyqae rOBOpSIT, 'TO

RaHHoe .aaHHbIH

C pOCTOM 6narococTosnHqs (H "cna60 BbiryKnbIM" npH

a = 1). Ha PHCyHKe 3 flOKa3aHO, KaK H3MeH3ieTCS COOTHOII1eHHe MexcAy HH,4HBH,gyajlbHOH 6e,aHocTbio H YPOBHeM XKH3HH npH pa3H'qHblIX 3HameHHAX a. '-eM BbILUe BeJIH4IHHa a, TeM qyBCTBHTeRbHee aaMaHHbir

HOKa3aTeJTb K 6narococToAH14O

npH6iH)KeHH5Ca K 6eCKOHe'HOCTH OH npeBpaigaeTcs 6eaHocT6 HaH6oJIee 6eAHoro qeJIOBeKa.

caMoro 6eAHoro qenioBeKa; no mepe B HOKa3aTeJIb, oTpaMKalo1HH TOJIbKO

HoiiHasA aKcHoMaTHqeCKaR xapawrepmcTHKa Kllacca noKa3aTeneji 6eAHocTH 4Tocrepa-rpHpa-TopH6eKa npexcTaBneHa B pa6oTe Foster and Shorrocks (1991, Proposition 7). BbiaBHraeMoe aBTOpaMH 3TOti pa6oTri Tpe6oBaHHe "nonpynnHotk noCjieaOBaTenbHOCTH" (B ocHoBHoM 3To o6o6uteHme cBoricTBa "aHTHBHoCTH", KOTopoe 6onee noxpo6Ho o6cyxmaeTcA HH)Ke) SABAeTCS AOBOJTbHO Cepbe3HbIM orpaHH'leHHeM Ha AOIIyCTHMLie nOKa3aTeJIH 6eIHocTI. 42

Individual

ConsumptIon or ioo.m. y PHCYHOIC

HH,aHBH1yanbHOEH

noKa3aTe.JIH

HHABH3,yaJ1bO1iO

6eJ4HoCTH.

pHcyHKe

6eaHOcTH, IBJIRIOWHueCs pa3lH'IHbIlMI BapHaHTaMH noKa3aTemJI

noKa3aHEt

noKa3aTenJH

6eAHOCTH Pci.

TaKioe 4j-ijnocTpHpyeT euie oAHy rlPHT1raTejiEbHYlO B KOHUerTYajibHOM nLTiaHe oco6eHHocTb nOKa3aTenii P2, a HMeHHO TOT 4aKT, ITO 1oK13aTenb HHaHBHayaJIEbHoH 6eAHOCTH nwaeuo npHHHMaeT HynieBoe 3HaMeHHe Ha YPOBHe xepTbI 6eAHoCTH; TaKHM o6pa3oM, CyUieCTByeT PHCYHOK 3

He3HaqHTenEHaA pa3HHLIa B BeCOBOM KO34IH4UHeHTe, IPHCBaHBaeMbiM IgaHHbiM nOKa3aTenJeM KOMy-JiH6o aOMOxO3sArCTBy, HaxosluxeMyCSl Yyrb BbEUle mepTbi 6eRHHoCTH, no CpaBHeHHIO C TeM, KTO HaXOrHTCA '4yTb HH)Ke ee 7 8 . YqHTibBaA Bblweynowwy-rwe npo6neMbl C BBeaeHMeM pa3pEIBOB B rIOKa3aTejib HHAHBHLyaJilHOH 6enHOCTH (Pa3'een 2.4) H o6cyxcAaBmHeCA BbIwe (Pa3nenbE 2.2 H 2.3) HeOnPeAejieHHOCTH B OUeHKe )KH3HeHHOrO YPOBH51, AaHHOe CBOUiCTBO npeaCTaBa1AeTCA BeCbMa )KeJIaTeJJbHbIM. OHO He rpHcyLEle HeKOTOPEIM apyrHM 'IyBCTBHTeJIbHbIM K pacnpeaenef-llo

noKa3aTeJblM 6eAHocTH, BKJfonaAl

HHAeKCbi CeHa H KaKBaHH.

CyutecTByIoT H xapyrHe IyBCTBHTenbHbie K pacnpeaeneHHIo aLMHTHBHbie nOKa3aTeuIH 6e.AHOCTH.

HanpHMep, nepBbli qyBCTBHTejibHbEH

K pacnpenaeieHH0o nOKa3aTeJIb 6eaHOCTH 6bU1

npeAnowKeH YOTTCOM (Watts, 1968) H OnHCblBaeTCA cne2yIOiueU 4FOpMynOrc

1 q

W= 1 n i=l

)

log(Yi z

KaK YrBepK.aeTCq B pa6oTe Atkinson (1987), o6U.Hr Kniacc aAUHTHBHbiX nOKa3aTeneU, BKjiO'aAi W, Pa H apyrHe nOKa3aTeJIH (TaKHe KaK BTOPOii nOKa3aTenlb, npeaiO)KeHHbEI B pa6oTe Clark, Hemming and Ulph, 1981), MO)1KHO OnHCaTb C noMoiIbio cJienyIouLeH cfopMynbl:

3To HMeeT OTHOwIeHHe K AaBHHUHHMy BOnlpOCy 0 TOM, KaK cJieayeT OTHOCHTbCA K 6eAHOCTH - KaK K npepbiBHcToMy HunH Ke nOCTOAHHOMy ABj1eHH1o. Bonee noapo6Hoe o6cywAeHHe 3Toro Bonpoca MO)KHO HaRTH

Atkinson (1987).

BOnpoc 6bu1fnpH3HaH BaxKHBEM B (Ravallion, 1988) H npH onpeCeJIeHHH xapaKTepHcTHK coKpamieHRA 6eAHocTH (Bourguignon and Fields, 1990; Ravallion, 1991b). B pa6oTe

3ToT aHaJIHTH4ecKKH

BJIHAHHA pHCKa Ha 6eAHocTb

KOHTeKcTe

aHanu3a

onTHMaJIEHbix cxeM

(7)

P(Z,yi)

-I n

rge p(z, Yi) - nOKa3aTenJb HHgHBHAyaj1bHOii 6egHOCTH, npHHHMaioU{Hr 3HaqeHme 0 Xns3 He6egHbIx (yi > z) H HeKOTOpOe nojio)KHTejibHoe 3HaqeHHe iJS 6egHHbIX, BeiIHqHHa KOTOpOrO, SABSJIIOLaICS @yHKIIHefi KaK qepTbi 6eHCToCTH, TaK H KHHAHBHgyaJlbHOrO )KH3HeHHOFO ypOBHs, KOTOpaS He 6 yMeHbiuanacb go MOMeHTa OLueHKH H He yAeT BO3paCTaTb riocnIe. KaK 6y,eT nOKa3aHo HHKe, Kniacc nOKa3aTeIieH, onpeeJlAeMbir BbiEpa)KeHHeM (7), npeBcTaBnCeTCA AJIA HCITIOlT3OBaHH5 npH nOCTpOeHHH npocHJIeil 6eAHOCTH.

npHBfeKaTeJbHbIM bMecma

YLqHTEIBaS3 BCIO Ty HeMany1O HHTeniieKTByaJbHYIO 3HeprH4o, KOTOpaS 6bmna 3aTpa'eHa Ha CO39aHHe TeopHH oLieHKH 6egHOCTH 3a nocnegHHe 15 I eT, H KawKyweeCA H3o6HIHe nOKa3aTenjeH 6e,HOCTH, H3 KOTOpElX Mbi Tenepb MOwKeM BbI6HpaTb, He6e3biHTepeCHo 6ygeT 3ajaTbCS BOnpOCOM:

uaerCTBHTeJ]bHO JIH npH cpaBHHTejibHbix O1eHKaX HMeeT 3HaqeHHe, KaKOH U3 3THX noKa3aTeJ¶eH HCnOnb3yeTCs?

OTBeT 3aBHCHT OT TOrO, H3MeHIIOTCS J1H, H eciniH a, TO KaK, OTHOCHTeJHbHe HepaBeHCTBa B o6iuecTBe B CpaBHHBaeMbliX CHTyaI.HA1x. EcYIH BCe YpOBHH noTpe6JieHHs (6eAHbIX H He6egHbIX) H3MeHHRHCb B ogiHHaKOBOH npOnOPLHHH - T. e. HMeno MeCTO yBeCjHteHHe HnH coKpa1IeHHe, HewTpaaibHoe K padnpeAeneHHIO", - TO BCe 3TH noKm3aTenH gagyT OgHHaKOBOe paH)KHpOBaHHe npH CpaBHHTeCbHOM

aHaJIH3e

3aBHCeTb HCKJI1OMHTeJlbHO

6egHocTH, H paHXKHpOBaHie

no a6COnlOTHOri

6eAHOCTH

OT HanlpaBJ1eHHS H3MeHeHHA cpe4HCero of6eMa pacnpegeiieHH4.

CTaHOBHTCS oMeBHAHbM, eCJlH BepHyTbCS K ypaBHeHH1O (1), B KOTOPOM napameTpbi

oTHoCHTeJIbHbIe

HepaBeHCTBa (KpHBaA JlopeHiLa).

IpH 3TOM LgOCTaTOqHO

6y)eT -TO

L oTpa2Ka1oT

majbie H3MeHeHHS1

OTHOCHTeJIbHb1X HepaBeHCTB HHKaK He OTpa3S1TCS Ha paH)KHpoBaHHH.

OgHaKO B HeKOTOpbIX Cnywi8x pa3HHiaa Mex)2y 3THMH oLeCHKaMH MOaKeT CTaTbEOBOJ]bHO 6apuanm nommuKu A gBa BapHaHTa IIOJIHTHKH: HanpHMep, PacCMOTpHM, 3aMeTHOH.

npegycmaTpHBaeT

He6Oiblboe

nepepacnpegenei4e

riogerl, HaxoqAigHxcS

B63IH3H

MOAb1

pacnpexReJieHHA, rxe TaloKe pacnonioxKeHa H wepTa 6egHOCTH, K 6egHeiimHM gOMOxo3sACTBaM. ()To cjiyxiaii HarnjiSHo nOKa3biBaeT, KaK CHuxemHHC LIeH Ha OCHOBHbie npOROBOJ]bcTBCHHbMe

TOBapbl oTeqecTBeHHoro npOH3BOACTBa BJIHACT Ha pacnpe,eJ1eHHS1 6JIarOCOCTOAHHs B HeKOTOpb1X a3HaTCKHX CTpaHaX; COOTBCTCTByiOL4HH npHMep npHBOqHTCS B Pa3Aene 3.7.) BapuaHm no7umuKu B npegnonaraeT npoTHBonoJoI)KHyio cwTyauHo - nonowKeHHe 6egHerlweHx yxyAuwaeTcs, a Te, KTO

no cBoeMy MaTepHaHBHOMY nojio)KeHHIO (B HawiieM npimepe TaKor4 pe3yJIbTaT

HaXOSATCS Bo3rie MOglbi paCnpeReiieHHs4, gOCTHraeTCJq B cjiyMae pOCTa UeH

Bb6iHrpblBalOT. Ha

OCHOBHbie

npOAOBOJ1bCTBeHHbie TOBapbB) MoMeHTajIbHoe oTpaXKeHHe nOgTBep4HT, WTO C TO4KH 3peHHS HHAeKca 4HCjieHHOCTH 6eAHbix (H) 6onee npegnoJTHTenlbHOI4 6ygeT BapiaHT nOjTtHKH B; HA >

HB, noCKOJIEKy 3MeHeHHS H onpejgeJiIOTCA HCKJIIO'qHTCeJbHO TeM, B KaKOM HalpaBBIeH1HH nepeceKaioT mepTy 6egHOCTH. OgHaKo TaKOH nOKa3aTeJlb, KaK P 2

JIIOAH

OKao)KeT rpOTHBOnOJ1OXKHoe

paH)KHpOBaHHe, P2A < P2B, TaK KaK OH OTHOCHTejilHO 6onee LyBCTBHTeiieH K yJlyqmeHH1O flOOx)KeHHiA 6egHeriiHx, meM K yJIy'{IIeHHIO nOJ1O)KeHHS1 He OHeHb 6egHbIX. rIoTpe6HOCTb B H3ymeHHH nOKa3aTeJleH 6egHocTH 6onee Bb1COKoro nOpSAKa, TaKHX KaK PG H P 2 , TaKwe 3aBHCHT OT Toro, paccmaTp4BaeTc HJH HeT rpH cpaBHHTeJIbHOH oLeHKe 6eAHocTH, OCHOBaHHOH Ha uHHeKCe 4HcjieHHocTH 6egHbIx, 6onee OgHOH qepTbi 6egHocTH, KaK 3TO peKomeHAOBaHO B npeabiJy1IeM pa3jiene. Ecrnu HCnOJIb3yeTCA TOJIbKO OAHa 'epTa 6eHOCTrH, TO,

Ha MOH B3FrIt,4 COBepwlleHHO Heo6Xo)iHMo npOBepHTb nOKa3aTeJIH 6o0iee BbICOKOrO nopsAAKa. Ho qacTo BMecTo 3Toro flOCTaTOLIHo onpegejiHTb 3HaqeHHA H MAD OjHOA HJIH ABYX gOnOJIHHTJe1bHbIX 'qepT 6eaHocTH. EcniH npu 3aaaHHoA qepTe 6eaHOCTH nOKa3aTeJIb 6onee BbICOKoro nopsARKa gaeT pe3yJbTaT, He COBnagaiOw1HH C BbIBOaOM, KOTOpbElH MOWKHO 6buO 6bl caejiaTb Ha OCHOBaHHH

HHaeKCa 4HCjieHHOCTH 6eaHbIX, TO aHlJaorFHHaS

KaPTHHa 6yReT iMeTb MeCTO H AAS

miHcJieHHOCTH "CBepx6ejHbIX", OCHOBaHHOrO Ha AOCTaTOMHO HH3KOH

qepTe

4H)IeKca

6eaHocTH.

OUiU6KU oLJeHoiK HOKa3aTenH 6eAHOcTu MoryT 6bITb BeCbMa qYBCTBHTejIbHbMH K O0IHHM BHJiaM oiuH6OK B

ouleHKax oTcJIe)KHBaeMbix napaMeTpOB H BecbMa YCTOHIiHBbIMH nO OTHOIlueHHIO K apyrHM. B KaxeCTBe HarniAgHoro npHMepa npe,qnolo)KHM, wTO paCCMaTpHBaeMblii nOKa3aTeJIb 6narococTosqHHsI H3MepeH C aaUqHTHBHoH cYiy'agHoI oiIH6KOH, cpegHee 3HameHHe KOTOpOH4 paBHO HyJUo: 3HaNeHHe nOKa3aTeJIS onpegejuleTCA KaK CpeAHee, HO B KaAKOM OTgenjbHO B3STOM Ha6njlogeHUH HMeeTCS OHIH6Ka. HlpeanoaO)KHM TaKwKe (B paMKaX aaHHOrO npHMepa), tiTO qepTa 6eIIHOcTH ycTaHOBjieHa Ha YPOBHe MOgbi pacnpegefleHH31. Torga MO)KHO nOKa3aTb,, qTO oAKH,aeMoe 3Hal'eHHe Ha6nmogaeMoro HHaeKCa 'iHCjieHHOCTH 6egHbIX B aaHHOM KOHKpeTHOM clytae

( T.e JOKaJbHO

HeToqHOCTH

B otueHKax

B oKpeCTHOCTAX

MO0bI) He 6ygeT 3aBHCcTb OT H3MeHeHHA CTeneHH

6rarocOcTOsHsA;

cpegHeM

MO)KHO

nporHO3HpOBaTb,

TO 3HaqeHHe

noKa3aTejis 6y;IeT O,4HHaKOBbIM KaK npH 6onblnoOi, TaK H npH HyaeBOH OIUH6Ke, H cpejiHee 3HaqeiHHe He 6ygeT cMeHeHO 79 . OgHaKO 3TO He Bcera cnpaBeanHBO npw apyr4x rpaHHilax 6e,HOcTH H nOKa3aTenJlX 6egHOCTH 6onee BbICOKOrO nOpARKa. B pa6oTe Ravallion (1988) aaeTcA o61uas

43OpMyJ4HpOBKa HeO6xO=UMbEX H AOCTaTO'IHbIX YCJIOBHr AAS yBeJIHxieHHIA Hage)KHOCTH noKa3aTensI 6exwoCTH, onpeefsAemoro Ha OCHOBe HHaHKaTOpa 6AarocOcTOsHIsI,

3Ha,qeHHA

xapaKTepH3yfOueroCA 6onbwori H3MeHq4HBOcTbIo.

piH pa3yMHbIX

HeTO'IHOCTb OueCHKH

gaCT 6o0ee

HHZnHKaTOpa

BbIpOBHeHHOrO H 'yBCTBHTejTbHOIO

6narocOcToAHHA

AonyeWHHiXx 6o0ee BbICOKaS

BbICOKHe OIeHKH

)]sA mno6oro K pacnpegeiieHHIo ITOKa3aTe1IA 6efHOCTH, KaKHM H ABASeTCS

P2 . PaCCMOTpHM Tenepb OLIH6KH OuCHKH cpeRHero

KOTOpOrO

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6eaHoCTb.

MO)KHO

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nOKa3aTb,

nOKa3aTenfA, Ha OCHOBaHHH

3JiaCTH4qHOCTb HH,eKCa 6egHbIX no OTHOLlueHHIO K OLuH6KaM OueHKH cpejHero 3HameHHA npH rIOCTOSHHOM 3Ha'IeHHH KPHBOH JiopeHila ABJ1SIeTCS HH qeM HHbIM, KaK 3J1aCTHqHOCTbIO (1YHKIIHH KYMYJIASTHBHOrO pacnpegeiieHHu B TOxIKe qepTbl 6CaHOcTH. Ee TaKxKe HeTpyRHO OLeHHTb, H (cyAs qTO

'HCjieHHOCTH

MOeMy JIH'IHOMY OnblTy)

pa3BHBaioMHXCA

cTpaH8 0 .

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(Kpome Toro,

3J1aCTH'IHOCTH HMeEOT TeHgeHUHIO 6blTb TeM

B Knacce bElJle,

qeM

HOPSAUKa AByX, no KpaiiHeri Mepe, MA

noKa3aTejTerl

(DOcTepa-rpHpa-TOpH6eKa

6oabLme 3Ha'ICHHe a 8 1.) TaKHM o6pa3oM,

flyCTb Ha6nmoJiaeMaA BeJiHqHHa y = x + Yl, rge x - HCTHHHOe 3Ha4eHHe, a fn - oluH6Ka, cpeaHee 3Ha4eHHe KOTOPOHi PaBHO 0. Ha6JiioaaeMbbi HHaeKC qHcJneHHOCTr 6eaHBIx - Fy(z) = Fx(z - 1-), rae noAcTrpo'Hrne HHAeKCbl X H y" o6o3Ha,aloT COOTBeTCTBY]OLIee pacnpeaeJleHHe. TOJHbKo eciiH Fx JnHHeeH (H HC B KaKOM JapyroM caiyqae), npH o)KHjaeMoM 3HaqeHHH no pacnpeaeneeHHo -q E[Fx(z - i)] = Fx(z). 3To paBeHcTBo 6yJeT Bb1FlOJIHXTbCA flOKanIbHO B OKpeCTHOCTHX MORbI. IPH4iOCTaTO4HO 6onbmoEi H3MeHqHBOCTH OHO MO)KeT He BbliOJIHATECR. Eoniee o6utHft aHanH3 (aAnA Hea,iHTHBHbIX oLHH6OK H noKa3aTeJIeH 6eAHOCTH 6onee BEJCOKOFO nOP3aaKa) npegCTaB3CeH B pa6oTe Ravallion (1988).

80 HanpiMep, Bpa6oTe Ravallion and Huppi (1991) 3HaqeHHe 3iacTi4qHocTH uHaeKca qHcneHHocTH 6eaHi6x no OTHOIIIeHHIO K CPeAlHeMY B 1984 r. 6bulo oueHeHo B -2,0 anI ceJIbCKorO HaceJIeHHs H B -3,3 AnsRropOACKOrO HaceJleHHsI.

HanpHMep, B TO BpeMA KaK 3JIacTHqHOCTb HaUHOHaiiEHOrO mHueKca qHcjieHHOcTH 6eAHblX anA I4HAOHe3uH no OTHOIIeHHIO K CPeAHeMY B 1984 r. cocTaBjiijia, cornacHo oueHKaM, -2,1, noKa3aTenb PG xapaKTepH3OBancs

Bcex

YPOBHAX nOTpe6iieHHA BnOJiHe HHqeKca qHcjieHHOCTH 6eAHb6x H,

rATHripOUeHTHaS HegooLxeHKa cpelHero nOTpe6iieHiH, Ha Mornia 6bl BbIJIHTbCA B 4eCATHrpoueHTHyio nepeoueHKy 6eAHYbIX.

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6onee Mo)Ker, HO, 6biTb noTpe6JleHHs, Ha OCHOBe o6meceMeriHoro HPOH3BOAHTCA npe,qnoqTHTeJibHbiM 6brno 6bl paRHUHPOBaHHe no nogymieBomy noTpe6neHHfo. Ha npaKTHKe oLeHHBaTE HCXOAST H3 TOrO, 'qTO KpHBaA JIopeHiLa He noABepraeTcA BJIHAHHIO, H MO)KHO 6 H4ClOJIb3yS npaBHnbHoe cpeAHee 3Ha'eHHe (KoTopoe 0 bIqHO H3BeCTHO HnIH JlopeHua, MOxceT 6blTb OueHeHO). 3To HeCKOjibKO rpy6oe npeanoj10KeHHe (nOCKOnbKy KPHBaS

noKa3aTenJH 6exHocTH,

HeCOMHeHHO, noABep)KeHa BnHAHH1o), HO HexCHO, MO)KHO rnH cAenaTb 6onee ya'qHoe 85 npe,1oJIO)KeHHe . B Tex HeMHorHx cj]yqaix, B KOTOpbIX A HCHnJIb3OBaji o6a cnoco6a paH)i(HpoBaHHS ( no ceMerHHbIM H ayluleBbIM aaHHb6M), A o6Hapy)xHn, 'TO (npH yCJIOBHH JlopeHua gaeT Heriroxoe KpHBaS ceMeHHaS cpeXHero) npasBHJbHOrO HCnoJIb3oBaHHSl nOTpe6JIeHH41, XOTS noAymeBOM Ha npH6JIH)KeHHe HaeKca IHCJIeHHOCTH 6eHEHbIX, OCHOBaHHOrO

xiSA

6eAHOcTH

noKa3aTeiieri

6onee BbICOKOrO

nopSAKa, TaKHX KaK

P2 , 3HaqeHHe

OUIH6KH

oKa3aJIOCb BbIiJe.

Ilpofepxa aunome3

rIpOBepKa rHnOTe3 o

pa3IiH'qHAX B O1eHKe 6eqHocTH B RBYX pa3nH4qHbIX CHTyaUHSIX He

6exHocTm, KorAa 3TH nOKa3aTeJIH noKa3aTenei gaHHbix, a qepTa 6ej4HOcTH npHHHMaeTCS eAHHH'qHbIx H3 HCXOAA paCCIIHTbBalOTCS 4MHKcHpOBaHHOA (T. e. onpeaeeneHHori 6e3 oL14H6oK). BcrioMHHM, 'ITO aAAHTHBHbie nOKa3aTeJlH

npeAcTaBisAeT

MoryT

Aisi

TpyAa

KaK cpegHHe

6blTb paCCqHTaHbE

onpeAeneHHoro

noKa3aTenJU

HeTpyAHO paCCqHTaTb

aBAHTHBHbix

3Ha'eHHS

COOTBeTCTBYIOMHM

Torqa =As cfy4aHHbIX 3To nO3BoJISIeT HaM ripOBepHTb

6eaHocTm.

HHAHBHAyaj1bHOH

CTaHIapTHOe

OTHOCHTenbHO 6eRHOcTH -

no BbI6OpKe

OTKHOHeHHe

o6pa3oM BbI6OpOK rHnoTe3bI

HanpHMep, YTBep)KLeHHS 0 TOM, qTO 6eRHOCTE B OJ4HOHi noArpynne

3HaqHTeJibHO Bbluie, qeM B apyroH.

Jns HHAeKCa 'qHCJIeHHOCTH 6eaHb1x CTaHAapTHoe OTKJIOHeHHe Mo)KeT 6bITb paccqHTaHO 87

As mio6oro apyroro nOKa3aTeJISf, OCHOBaHHOFO Ha gonie OT HaCeIieHHA . TaKHM o6pa3oM, CTaHapTHoe OTKJIOHeHHe BI66OpOMHoro pacnpeaenieHHs HHaeKCea qHCjIeHHOCTH

TO4HO TaK We, KaK H

6eA1HbIx OnHCblBaeTCS 4OpMyjioH

CBOHCTB

HOpMajTbHOrO

I{H.(1 -

pacnpeAeneHHA.

H)/n}

=As Bbi6OpKH pa3mepa

3To O3HamaeT,

AoBepHTenbHOH BepOSTHOCThIO HCTHHHoe 3HaqeHHe HHTepBaJie:

qTO

HHAeKca

H nO3TOMy, HCXOAS H3

(HanpHMep) c 95-npoueHTHoiH qHCj1eHHOCTH 6eqHbIX iie)KHT B

EcnH HCXOAHTb H3 Toro, 'ITO nepepaHKHPOBaHHe HeBenHKo H1iH oTcyTcByeT (npH cpaBHeHHH ceMeriHoro no noTpe6JleHH3l c noIIyilleBmM nIoTpe6JleHHeM), TO g13111B3BeIHBaHHS ceMeBHOri KpHBO JlopeHua An11 ceMbH pa3mepe O AaHHbEe HaceJieHHiO MO)KHO 6blJio 6bl HcnoaE3oBaT6 (KaK npaBHno) pacnonaraembie xyYun4e KawcAOrO cBegeHHOrO B Ta61HIUy HHTepBaia. Ho Yi npegnonaralo, qTO qacTo 3T0 6y3eT 3aBaTb H OUeHKH, TaI KaK pa3Mep ceMbH HMeeT TeHAeHUHIO yBeJIHqHBaTbC31 C pOCTOM ceMeflHoro HOTpe6JneHHA MoweT nepepaHKHpOBaH o6pa3oM, TaKHM HaCeneHHA. ay1U1 Ha nOTpe6JIeHH31 pOCTOM C yMeHbuiaThCS[ OKa3aTbCS BeCi6Ma 3HaxiHTeJTbHbIM.

fIycTh rjiaBHEIM pe3yJTETaToM CTaTHCTHqecKHx Ha6JIoAeHHi ABnqeTcS IIeHTpajihHaS npeelenbHaA TeopeMa. Bii6opKH npoH3BoJIEHoHi OCHOBe Ha paccmHTbIBaeTCR cpeAHee no Bbl6OpKe 3HaqeHHe m rnio6oB nepeMeHHorl C pOCTOM n (m pa3mepa n, H rnycT n - HCT1HHaS BeJIH'HHa 3Toro CpeAHero. Tor31a MONKHO noKa3aTE, qTO g)4 n CTpemMTCA K HOpMaiiEHOMY paCnpe3efleH410. 87 KoTopoe 6y3CT HMeTb 6HHOMHanbHoe pacnpeaeneHHe npH C1yqariHEIX Bbi6opKaX, CTpeMACh K HOpManE.HOMy MajbIX pacnpeAeJleHHIO C pOCTOM pa3Mepa Bbi6opKH. AJaA Bcex pawMepoH BbI6opOK, 3a HcKI1io'ieHHem O'eEHb

5),

AeBCTByeT

ciieDymoee noj1e3Hoe 3MnHpHieCKoe npaBHjio: annpOKCHMaUHs, npHcyTCTByiol1aA npH g1o Tex nop, noKa a6cOJnoTHoe 3HMaeHHe01(l -

HCnoJTh3OBaHHH HOpManJTHoro pacnpe1eJieHHs, 6yereT TOqHOl 4 H)/H} - 41{H/(l - H)} He npeBaiuiaeT 0,3 n (Box et al., 1978). 50

(8)

H-1,96 {H(1-H)/n} <H<H+1,96/{H.(1- H)/n}.

4TO6bi HpOBepHTb OCHOBHYIO rHnoTe3y 0 TOM, WTO B pacnpeleJieHHAx A H B npH pa3mepax BBI6OpKH nA and nB HA = HB, cJ1e,yeT pacc'iHTaTB CTaTHCTHKy KpHTepHS t = (HA - HB)/s, rle s - CTaHaapTHOe OTKUiOHeHHe BBE6OpO'HOrO pacnpeaeJIeHHA HA - HB, KOTOpOe (B COOTBeTCTBHH C OCHOBHOHi rlHoTe3oHi) onpeaensIeTCA no fopMyjie:

(9)

s=/H (-H

rge H = (nAHA + nBHB)/(nA + nB). CM., HanpHmep, Hamburg (1977). EcIiH pac'eTHoe 3HateHHe t no a6coJTIoTHori BeJiHl'HHe MeHBH6ie 1,96 (2,58), TO pa3HHLia B UHHeKCaX 'iHcJIeHHOCTH, CKaXKeM, Mex,Iy ABYMS nepHOAaMH BpeMeHH, He MO)KeT CMHTaTbCSl CTaTHCTHHeCKH 3Ha'iHMOIi Ha YPOBHe

(1%) RpH HCnOJIb3OBaHHH "AByCTOpOHHero" KpHTepHA KoJ1e6aHHA.

3TH MeTOAbI MOryT 6biTb pacnpocTpaHeHbl 6e,aHocTH. KaKBaHH (Kakwani, 1990) BBhBenf 4bOpMyRy

apyrHe

aflRHTHBHbEe

rioKa3aTenH

AnS CTaHgapTHbIX OTKJIOHeHHHi HeKOTOPbIX ;IpyrHx aXgHTHBHbIX nOKa3aTenieH4, BKJIOMoSa nOKa3aTeJIH Pa Kniacca (DocTepa-FpHpa-TopH6eKa88. CTaHznapTHoe OTKTIOHeHHe noKa3aTeisi Pa onpeieJsAeTcsA OpMynloHl 4{(P2a - pa2 )/n}, 143 KOTOpOHi

BbEiiieynoMsHyToe CTaHaapTHOe OTKJIOHeHHe HaxogHTCs KaK OCo6biil ciy'aiR, npH KOTOpOM a = 0.

JTSA

HHAeKCa

qHcCjeHHocTH

6eaHbix

3TH MeTogbl B HeKOTOpOM CMBiciie HMeIOT CBOH orpaHHxieHIA. rIpelnoioTHTeinHee paccMaTpHBaTb qepry 6 eAHOCTH KaK criy'aiiHyio nepeMeHHyIO. 9TH 4OpMyJmlb TaK)Ke HrHOpHpyloT .rno6yIo

HeTo'IHocTB,

BBETeKalouWlo

crpynnHpOBaHHBIX

aaHHbIX

KpHBOH4

ARA

JIopeHua).

(TaKHX

pemneHAs

H3 KaK

MeTOaa

oLeHKH

CTaHzIapTHbie

3THX

npo6neM

noKa3aTejieri

OTKJIOHeHHS

noKa

6eAHocTH

oIeHO'IHbIX

CyHueCTByeT

OCHOBe

napaMeTpOB

HHKaKHX

o6WHX

peKOMeHIRahiHri; aHaajHTHqeCKaI TpyRHOCTb ABJDAeTCA CJCeaCTBHeM HOTepH CBOr4CTBa a IAHTHBHOCTH (KoTopoe HO3BOJSleT HCHOJIE3OBaTE ueHTpaJIbHyIO Ipe.2e.jbHyio TeopeMy). TeM He MeHee,

KOJIHMecTBeHHbie

CpaBHHTe.jbHble

6eJIHOCTH, He OTBe4aioMHe Bbi6ieyKa3aHHOMy C4HTaTbCS B JlyuifeM ciiy'ae HeORHO3Ha'4HbIMH. 3To TaKiKe OTHOCHTCS K HeKOTOpbIM CpaBHHTeJlbHbIM oLeHKaM, OTBeMaiOwUHM 3TOMY KpHTepHIO, HO 6onee T-pyLHbIM B oi4eHKe. KPHTepH1O 3Ha'iHMOCTH,

oljeHKH

RORiKHbI

3TH c1opMyRbi He yqHTbIBaIOT MeTOaHKH o6CJIeCOBaHHA; KaK ripaBHIlO, B MCTOaHKe o6c.ieAoBaHHm B TOH HJH HHOH CTeneHH 6ygeT npHcyTcTBoBaTE KJiacTepH3aHHsH, qTO npeHBneeT K pOCTy cTaHRapTHBIx oTKJIoHeHHfl no cpaBHeHHIo C npocrbiMH rIpOH3BOJIbHBIMH BBi6opKaMH, a TaKaKe paccjloeHHe, CHH)Kaiol.ee 3TH OTKJIOHeHRA. KpoMe TOro, 3aqaCTyIO Heo6xoaHMo B3BeILUHBaTb pe3yJIbTaTbl Ha6JHoXAeHHrl - HarpHMep, HcnoIb3yA B KaqeCTBe BecoBorO K03 44HUuHierra pa3Mep aOMOX03AriCTBa. DopMynb1 pacMe-ra CTaHaapTHbIX OTKROHeHHr, y'qHThlBaioluHe 3TH o6iuHe napaMeTpbl AaHHblx, npeAcTaBJIeHbl B pa6oTe Howes and Lanjouw (1994). CM. Tamoie Preston (1992). 51

Pe3bome

HOKa3aTeniH 6e)IHOCTH AXAHTHBHbie H qyBCTBHTenjbHbie K BbIPOBHeHHOMY pacripegeneiHHo nOKa3aTejiH "6o0nee HH3KOrO nOpsAqKa AIBJISOTCS BecbMa pIHBJIeKaTe11bHbIMH. TeM He MeHee, - HeCOMHeHHO, 6yayT npOgOj)KaTb mHAeKCbi x{HCjieHHOCTH 6eaHblx H rny6HHbI 6eaHOCTm nlerYle HHTepHpeTHpOBaTb. KaK IlO1lb3OBaTbCS rlOnY1IAPHOCTbIO XOTS 6bi nOTOMy, WTO HX HaMHoro ripaBHJIO,

6eaHbIX TamoKe

xn4C11eHHOCTH

uHAeKC

MeHee

'yBCTBHTeneH

K HeKOTOpbIM

06blqHbIM

nu14 CpaBHHTeJ1bHaS OUeHKa 6eRHocTH K 4iOpMaM oxuH6oK B OUeHKaX. Ba)KHO 3HaTb, xIyBCTBHTeJTbHa Bc11eacTBHe r1pHcyUjeri 3TOMY Bbi6opy Bbi6opy nOKa3aTenjA 6eAHOCTH, HpIPHeM He TOJ1bKO pa31H'IHbLIM nOKa3aTenSIM TaKoKe MOryT XRaTb Heonpe,ae11eHHOCTH; pa3J1H'I4Mu B paHXKHpoBaHHH HO 0 TOxIHOM HanpaBnieHHH , B KOTOpOM npOH30uIlH H3MeHeHHA B

HaM Koe-KaKyio HH4OpMaLauo 2.7, r,e q paccKa)Ky o HeKOTOPb1X YPOBHe 2KH3H14. Mbl BepHeMCSI K 3TOMY BOnpOCY B Pa3Arene lyBCTBHTej1bHOCTb K Bbl6opy aHaJIHTHxeCK14X cpeaCTBaX, KOTOpbIC MOrYT nlOMO'1b OueHHTb noKa3aTeiiS1 6exHoCTH.

2.6

Pa3IoaeHuns arPerUPOBaHHblX noKa3aTeieH

CRY)KHTb no11e3HbIMH Cpe,CTBaMH TujaTenbHO CKOHCTpyHpOBaHHble pa311O)KeHHS MOryT pa3n1O)KtTb eXU4HH'qHblri arperHPOBaHHbl npH aHanu3e 6e4Hoc'TH. BHalarie nOrOBOpHM 0 TOM, KaK A paccMOTPKO aBa HyTH Rns o6pa3oBaHHSI npOqIHnA 6eJHHocTH. 3aTeM 6eaHocTH

noKa3aTeJIb

pa3nowKeHHSI H3MeHeHHH 6eLAHocTH CO BpeMeHeM.

Ilpowunu 6euHocmu "nppOq1Hjib

HOKa3blBaIoIUH4i,

6eaHocTH",

KaK 6eq1HOCTb

HnpH nepexo,4e

H3MeHAeTcC

3aHAITOCTH) o6lueCTBa K

,pyrOii

OQgHOr noarpynnbi (perHoHa npOXHBaHBHA u4nu14 ceKTopa O4eHKH 6eAHOcTH.1cnonb3OBaHHe xiTO HHOe, KaK oco6blii cnyxari cpaBHHTeiibHOH 6e,aHOcTH

Mo)KeT 6blTb

perHoHanbHbie 89

6eAHOCTb

3KOHOMHqeCKHe

no1i3HbIM

H3MeHeHHS

npH

BepOSTHee

Bcero

Toro,

nIOBJ1HSHOT

npo4Hneii

oTpacneBble

KaK Ha

3TO He H114

arperHpoBaHHylo

AAAHTHBHbiie

nOKa3aTeniH

'pe3BbiqaHHo

OueHKe

Knacca

KaK 6eAHOCTH, o6cyxczaBluHeCA B npegbigyiem pa3gene (TaKHe, 3a)Qa'1y o611erqHTb MoryT 3Ha'HTe11bHO 'DocTepa-rpHpa-TopH6eKa),

nOKa3aTeJIU

BbllO11HeHHH TaKHX cpaBHHTeniEHb6X OgeHOK 6eAHocTH.

PaccMorpHM

o61umrl

Kioacc

azUHTHBHbIX

'rTo Bce HaceneHHe MO)KHO noKa3aTener4 6eqHOcT14, OnlHCaHHbIX ypaBHeHHem (7). rlpeAno11oo4Mm, SIB1IAeTcS He xieM HHbIM KaK pa3Xen1HTL Ha m HenepeceKaiougHxcs noarpynn. rpxj4jHRb 6eAHocTH COBoKynHY1O 6eHocTb MO)KHO nepexrHeM noKa3aTe11eH 6eAHOCTH P; npu j = 1, ..., m. Toraa cpeAHee 3HaMeHHe nOKa3aTe11eri PaCCIHTaTb KaK B3BewLeHHoe no xiHCjieHHOCTH HaceneHHS 6e11HocTH nO BceM noarpynnaM:

(10)

I m Pn P =-E n j=1

i i

CM. Kanbur (1987, 1990), rae npH4BOAHTC

aeT8JIHoe o6cyAcAeHHe HCKOTOpblX npi4MeHeHHII

6e,aHOCTU B nojiHTi4qeCKOM aHaJl43e.

npo4mnerl

rne

I n1

noca3aTeib 6e,4HocTH au Aj-H norrpynnbi C HacenieHHeM nj, Hmefoiie o6beM noTpe6JIeHHM Yij npr i = 1, ... , n, fTpH o6meu IHcJIeHHoCTH HaceCJeHHS n = Ynj. AHaTiOIH4HbIM o6pa3oM MO)KHO TaKKe onpeAejiHTE "KJIaCTepwI noqrpynn; no mepe ganbHe4wero pa3JIo)KeHHS npoclHib 6eAHOCTH Kafcgoro nocnepyiowero muara cyMMHpyeTCA C npoHiuem 6eAHoCTH npeflbi,gymero

wiara

Hcnojnb3OBaHHeM

Ka,IeCTBe

BCCOBblX

Ko3f¢HtuHeHTOB

3HaHeHHH

'{HcJieHHocTb

HaceCeHHA, COOTBCTCTBY1OUYIO KaXAOMY FpO4HXllO.

KpoMe

o6ecneqHBalOT

Toro

npuH

yao6CTBa

paCxieTOB,

4OpMHpOBaHHH

KOTOpOC

npowHneri

1HTHBHbile

6eaHOCTH,

noKa3aTeJIH

aLIAHTHBHOCTb

6eaHOCTH

rapaHTHpOBaHHO

o6ecneqHBaeT "noArpynHoByJO nocjiegoBaTenJbHoCTb" B TOM CMbicle, 'TO B c.iyQae yBenHMeHHI (yMeHbEweHIIA) 6eRHocTH B rno6oii nogarpynne HaceCieHHS COBOKYnIHaA 6eWHOCTb TaKoKe 6yaeT BO3pacTaTb (cHHwKaTbcA) (Foster et al., 1984; Foster and Shorrocks, 1991). B CaMOM egene, cDOCTep H ILOPPOKC (Foster and Shorrocks, 1991) nOKa3anHi, VITO (C yCeTOM onpe.aeeneHHbIx npenogoweHHA TexHHqeCKoro xapaKTepa) nogrpynoBai noc1eJOBsaTeCJbHOCTb O3HaiaeT H o6o3HallaeTcs KTiaccoM noKa3aTeneii, onpeAiensAeMbIx ypaBHeHHeM (7)90. 3To CBOHCTBO HHTyHTyHBHO HpHMeHAeTCA K jno6oMy npO4Hnio 6eAHOCTH. B CaMOM aeae, oueHKa BJ1nH4HHS3 Ha COBOKynHyYo 6ezHOCTb iJeneBblx CXeM 6opb6bi c 6eaHocTbbo - npIH KOTOPbIX COUHaIibHHaA nOMObllb

KoHiieHTpHpyeTCS

B HeKOTOpbIX noArpynnax - MOwKeT BBOAHTb B 6oniE.uoe 3a6Jy)KWeHHe, ecniH

HCnoiEb3yeMbEillnOKa3aTeCJb 6eIHocTH He o6na,aaeT 3THM CBOHCTBOM;

rlOKa3aTeCfb COBOKynHoHi

6egHocTH Mo)KeT yBeJIHtI4BaTbCs, ,aoe ecsIH 6eaHOCTb B uefleBoH rpynne CHH3HY1aCb H HHKaKHX ,apyrHx H3MeHeHHH He Ha6jiogaAocEb. TaKHM o6pa3oM, nojrpynnoBaA nOCj1CaOBaTeCjbHOCTb Mo)KeT paCCMaTPHBaTbCA KaK CKejiaTeJIbHoe CBOHCTBO B OUeHKe fOJIHTHKH 60pb6bi c 6eRHOCTbio. CyLueCTBYIOT H HHbe, npHBjieKaTeCjbHbie B CBoeM poje noKa3aTejnH, KOTOphie MOCyT H He OTBeCaTb 3TOMy yCJIOBHIO, TaKHe KaK HHaeKCbl CeHa (Sen, 1976), KaKaBaHH (Kakwani, 1980b) H

Bx13Kop6H-JAoHanrucoHa (Blackorby-Donaldson, 1980).

O0,HHM H3 B03MOWKHbIX BO3pa)KCHHA npOTHB a 1 HTHBHOCTH ABfIAeTCS

TO, 'TO

OHa He

npHgaeT HHKaKOrO 3Ha'IeHHS cnejyioiuemy acneKTy npoHUnA 6e'RHOCTTH: pa3iHiHlHHM Mexy noarpynnaMH B MacWuTa6ax 6egHoCTm. PaCCMOTpHM Be rpynlbl OaiHHaKOBOrO pa3mepa ceJIEbCKHH CeKTOp H "ropOICKor4" ceKTop - C HCXORHbIMH HHReKcaMH 6eaHocTH 0,70 H COoTBeTCTBeHHO.

0,20

COOTBeTCTBHH

C Jno6bIM

(B3BeCeHHbIM

qHcJieHHOCTH

Hace.neHHM)

a,flHTHBHbIM rIOKa3aTenieM COBOKynHaS 6eRHOcTb COCTasBJAeT 0,45. Bbi6HpaTb npHxoaHTCA Mexc)y ,BYMSA BapHaHTaMH HOJIHTHKH - X H Y. B COOTBeTCTBHH C BapHaHTOM X npO4Hflb 6eCHOCTH

0,70 H 0,10, a B COOTBeTCTBHH C BapHaHTOM Y - I1pHHHMaeT 3HaqeHH3I 0,60 H 0,20. JlpH Hno6oM afaHTHBHOM noKa3aTejie 6egHOCTH Bbi6op MCexy X H Y He HMeeT npHHUHnHaHJbHOFO 3Ha'IeHH4: o6a 3THX BapHaHTa galOT arperHpoBaHHblH HHACKC 6eRHocTH 0,40. TeM He MeHee, B OTJIHMHe OT BapHaHTa X, npH BapHaHTe Y B BblHrPbhIUe OKa3biBaeTCS 6onee 6eiHbIi cejbCKHH MeHAeTCA Ha

CeKTOp.

CnegyeT JIH HaM npejwoqecTb BapHaHT Y? OTBCT 6yaeT yTBep'jHTeInbHbIM, ecCIH Hac HHTepeCylOT HCpaBeHCTBa MexKfy rpyrinamH He3a6ucumo OT a6conIoTHoro )KH3HCHHOrO ypOBHS. 90

CTporo roBopA, roHAUCx mno6oe crporo Bo3pacTaioruee npeo6pa3oBaHHe Knacca noKa3aTeneg, onpegensiembix xapaKTepHCTHKa o6wero Knacca noArpynnHonocjieAoBaTeTJIEHEIX nOKa3aTeJIeri 6eaHOCTH.

ypaBHeHHeM (7). B pa6oTe Foster and Shorrocks (1991) aaeTcA 53

BbICOKOH Hauiero BbI6opa npo4rnJb 6eaHocTH onpeeneeH C aOCTaTO4HO Ha YCTaHoBBIeHa 6eRHOCTH 'epTa TO'HHOCTbIO (T. e. HHAHKaTOp )KH3HeHHOFO YpOBHM ageKBaTeH, YPOBHA pacnpe)leneHRe oTpawKaeT OCHOBC 3TOrO HHaHKaTopa, a flOKa3aTenb 6e,4HocTH npaBHIbHO OJIHTHKH X H Y TO BapaHHTbli Bble), o6cywganHCb )KH3HH cpegm 6eRHbIx - Bce 3TH YCJIOBHR X BblHlrpblI CBOeMy BJIHRHHIO Ha )KH3HeHHbl4 YPOBeHb 6eJ4HbIX. Hpu BapHaHTe EcIiH

nexcawHR B OCHOBe

3K6u6anieHmHibl no

nO2qHSJ YPOBeHb WKH3HH 6e,HbIX, ,RA rOpOJaCKOA 6e,RHoTbi 6bmi 6bl TeM xce H Ha T-y we Be1HqHHY IIo3ToMy npui nio6om paHKHCHPOBaHHH 'ITO H BblHrpblll xian ceiibCKoH 6eAHoTb1 npH BapHaHTe Y. OT o6nHX He 3aBHCAIUHM c~aKTOpaM, ripOBO,4HMOr4 flOjiHTHKH BapHaHTOB B03MOWKHbIX KO34Hu4UeHT. BeCOBOH OTTgeflbHbli XapaKTepHCTHK YPOBHS WKH3HH, Aoj1XeH HpHCBaHBaTbC5 KaKOFO poaa ciiezyeT C'4HTaTb FaKTOpbl onpeaejiHTb, qTo6bi Tpy,aHocTb 3aKniioqaeTCS B TOM, COOTHOCHTb C )KH3HeHHbIM yeT cnie HX KaK 3Ha'qHMbIMH npH npHSHH1T1H TaKHX pemIeHHH, H pacnpeqeJieHHe, npH 4KH3HH YPOBHe ypOBHeM. BnonHe B03MOWKHO, qTO nIpuI OHOM H TOM wKe CeJIbCKHM 6ejRHbIM ,aOMOXO3SACTBaM, OKawKeTCAS B KOTOpOM He6OJIblnOH BbiHrpbllH ,OCTaeTCs KOTOpOM 3HaqiHTenjbHO BbiHrpblBaeT HTore 6onee npe,qnoxITrTeJIbHbIM, xieM paCnperAejeHHe, nplH ropo,acKas 6eqHOTa. OnpaBaaTb 3T0 6bino 6bl HeiierKo. BbIBO,a

MOr

6blTb

COBCeM

HHbIM,

ecIH

6bl

6uLIH

npHq'HHb1

nonaraTb,

'TO

H (B Haw1eM npHMepe) npHBeJIO K pacnpexenieHHe H3MepeHHoro )KH3HeHHoro YPOBHS HeTOMHO TeM (06blxlHbIM) nepeoueHKe 6JiarOCOCTOqHHA B CeJIbCKOM eeKTOpe. 3To MornIO 6bl 6blTb BbI3BaHO CMemeHHe B HCKJIIO'IaEOT o6Cjle,aOBaHHH, Ha aKToM, 'iTO nOKa3aTenIH nOTpe6JIeHHS, OCHOBaHHbie

TOBapaMH. EcnH CTOpOHy ropogaa B pacnpegeneHHH 6nar, o6ecne4-HBaeMblx rOCyaapCTBeHHbIMH TO, HanpHMep, 3pe-HSI, HpHBeCTH npHMep , OTo6pax(aiomUHH 6onee CleKYJIATHBBHYIO TO'KY coo6paxKeHI4

ceKTopoB

HHRHBHAya8AbHOH

MorITIH

6bl

HMeTb

3aBHCTH

aHlJaOrHiqHbIC

OTHOwJeHHAX

nOCJ1eaCTBHq.

Me)VY

Ho B

npe'aCTaBHTeniMmH

KOHuenTyaJbHOM

pa3HLIX

ninaHe

3TH

IPOCTbIMH H He o6A3aTenbHo npHBOJST K OTKa3y OT aLmHTHBHOCTH

ripoGieMbl BbWriSiqHT 6ojiee KaK )KeiiaTeJbHoro CBORCTBa. CyUiecTByioT

npOcMHIb

("THna

A")

4Ba

OCHOBHbIX

cnoco6a

npeacTaBsnei*is

nOKa3blBaeT paclpocTpaHeHHOCTb

npo4Hnm

6eaHocTH

6e HoCTH.

HnJH apyroro

[lepBbIl

HOKa3aTeJIS HeKOTOPbIMH

onpee]eneHHoA noArpynnbl, ("THia U") nOKa3blBaeT npOcHJTb BTOpoHi npO)KHBaHHA. xapaKTepHCTHKaMH, HanpHMep, MeCTOM nO CBOeMy pa3JiHqaioUHMHCS nogrpynriaMH, pacnpoCTpaHeHHOCTb xapaKTepHCTHK Me)KLy 91 THna A HPOd2HJIb . H "He6eaHbIMH" OTHOuieHHIO K CTaTycy 6eaHOcTH - HanpHMep, "6eHbmlM" He HaceneHHe Korga He Bceraa ABflSeTCS o6OCHoBaHHbIM BapHaHTOM, oco6eHHO B TeX CHTyagHqX, B TaKOH 4opMe He moryT Mo)KeT 6blTb pa3ReneHo Ha HenepeceKaOmiueCmu rpynnbl. HanpHMep, (noKa3aTeneri)

6eaHocTH

,IS[

KawgoOH

TOBapOB pa3jiH'HbiMH aOXOaHbIMH 6bITb npe4cTaBeHbl gaHHbie o noTpe6JIeHHH pa3jiHMHbIX THnla B. Ho BO MHOruX rpyririaMH, XOTS HX MOKHO ripeAcTaBHTb B BHge nlpOiHlIq 6eaHoCTH dopMe. KaKas we H3 HHX 6onee cUy'aAx npo4uub 6eaHOCTH MOKeT 6blTb npe,4CTaBneH B xno6orl npe,IjnoqTHTeRbHa?

'aCTH Ta6nIuLI 3. PacCMOTpHM rHnoTeTHiqecKHe aHHble, npeCTaBBjeHHbie B JIeBOH B jByx perUOHax - "CeBepHOM" H HaceneHHe cTpaHbLi COCTOHT 143 1000 MeIOBeK, 11pO)KHBatOU14X AOMOXO3SArCTB, MO)KHO OIUCHHTb Ei"oKHOM". l4cxomi H3 pe3ynJbTaTOB BbI6opO4Horo o6cneaOBaHHs 3TO nOKa3aHO B Ta6nHUe 3. ABa qHcnIeHHOCTb "6ejHbIX" H "He6eAHbIX" B KaBuOM perHOHe, KaK 6eHocTTH iipeacTasBjeHbl B npaBoHl 'IaCTH Ta6nULHbi. OHH ABHO BbIlUe THna npo4RneIe OnHCaHHbIX

OHH OueHUHBaKOT COBepLueHHO T1POH3BOA51T BeCbMa pa3fH'qHoe Bne'aTYieHHe, XOTS, pa3yMeeTC5[, pa3Hble BelAH.

91 06a THna uWlpOKO

o6cyweuie HCnOnb3yO0TCI B HccileAOBaHHSx 6eRHoCTuz; npfMepbI u ROlOnJIHKTejThHoe

MO)KHo HaiTH B pa6oTe van

de Walle (1991). 54

To, KaKoH1H3 AByX npo4rn.ner 6ea1HOCTH, OKaXKeTCA 6onee nojie3HbM, 6yAeT 3aBHceTb OT ero Ha3Ha4eHHA. flpeAIojioxKHM, qTO npo0f4)ub 6eTHocTu CJIY)IKHT )]A Bbi6opa teJieBoro perHoHa AnS peanH3aqlH nporpaMMbI 6opb6Eb c 6eiHOCTbIO. B paMKax 3TOH InpOrpaMMbl BCe )KHTeJiH Bbi6paHHoro ueneBoro perHoHa rioAyaT He6onIbLllyo cyMMy geHer. 3To rpHMep TaK Ha3blBaeMoH "a,apeCHoi noAlepxKKe". 3To "HecoBepuleHHas" aRpecHaA noaaepX(Ka, nOCKOJEbKy (He436e1uHo) JIHUO, oripeIeJIAiHoee HOJIHTHKy, He 3HaeT, KTO KaKori )KH3HeHHblH YpOBeHb HMCeT, Aawe HeCMOTPS Ha TO, qTO pacnpegeneHHe YPOBHA )KH3HH MO)KCT 6blTb niocTpoeHO Ha OCHOBe pe3yJIbTaTOB Bbi6opo'IHoro o6careAoBaHHM 4OMOXO3AHCTB. ,ApyrHMH CJIOBaMH, IOJIHTHK rIoJiaraeTCs Ha HeCOBepuIeHHblH HHZUKaTTOp KH3HeHHOrO ypOBHsI, B HaweM cny'ae - perHOH npo)IHBaHHA9 2 . 1onee nogpo6Ho nOnHTHqeCKHe npo6rieMbi 3TorO THna o6cyfcAaIoTcs B Pa3aene 3.8.

Ta6.rnina 3. Aju6TepHaTBn6bie cuoco6iL npeaCTaBsieHHn npo(Hu$ji 6eAHOCTH Ha OCHOBe rHROTeTHUeICKHX JaHHbiX

qHcjieHHocTm

Hpo4IiHwE 6eCHOCTH

PerHoH 3e,Hbix

THn A TOJuIS HaceieHHe perHOHa, ABJIAsouerocx 6e,aHbEM (%)

He6ekHbIX

THn 1 beaHble, npoxuBaaioHe B gaHHOM perHOHe, B % OT o6uei qHCjiCHHOCTH 6egiHbix

"}O;KHblH

100

"CeBepHbiii"

200

600

HeTpygHo qoraAaTbCA, 'TO

B CooTBeTCTBHH

npeaLIcTaBjieHHbIMH

3 aaHHbIMH,

B Ta6JIHue

6e,aHbie nony'IaT 6onbEime qeHer, ecJiH B KaxCCTBe ueneBoro perHoHa Bbi6paTb "fO)KHblH". Ipojnilb Tr4na A IBJIIeTCS JiyMLHM OpHeHTHPOM AJIS aapecHoro pacnpegeJieHHs noMoiiH, ecinH

LeJI1b6O ABJIAeTCS

ABnAeTCS

OKa3aHHHe

HaH6oJIbLwero

HOAS1BjeHHeM

OgHOrO COUHaJ1bHbIX BbIrIJaT pa3JI1H4HbIM o6wero

3HaMeHHA

BJHAHHS

Ha rny6HHy 6ejRHOCTH.

npHMep

Ba)KHOFO

npHHuHria: ipIH BblnOJIHeHH1f eRHHOpa3OBbIX nloarpynriaM HaceJieHHs CcieJlbrO CBeAeHIHw K MHHHMYMY

nOKa3aTeCJI

6e,AHOCTH Knacca (DoCTepa-FpHpa-TopH6eKa Pa cJ1eCYIOWHH Kyaa Heo6Xo,UHMo HanpaBHTE flaeHeKHbie BbiHmaTbi, qOfl)KHa 6bETb noiorpynna C HaH6o0iee BElCOKHM 3HaHeHHeM Pa- (Kanbur, 1987; CM. TaKxKe Besley and Kanbur, 1988, 1993). 1 no,Zrpynnoi4,

Ewe OaHHM cnoco6oM npegcTaBjIeHHsI HHOpMaaiHH, coRepicaiercsC B npo4wie 6e,aHOCTH, ABJSAeTCS HOpManH3alHA HoKa3aTenA 6eXaHOCTH KaKaOH no,arpynnbl no

arperHpOBaHHOMy

("o6fteHaixHoHanbHoMy") nOKa3aTenEo 6eaHocTH 9 3 . 3To HHKaK He CKa)KeTCS Ha

nOpS,aKOBOH CpaBHHTeiEbHOH oueHKe 6eAHocT 1Ja1SJ Hnp

3TOM BO3MOWHa oiLuH6Ka

npH

3agaHHoro nepHoga BpeMeHH (HanpHMep), HO

CpaBHeHHH npo4HJieH 6eWHOCTH C TeHeHHeM BpeMeHH, ecinH

YPOBeHb arperHpoBaHHori 6eRHOCTH C TemeHHeM BpeMeHH TaKwe H3MeHHjiCA. B Pa3,aenre 3.6 6yaeT

92 93

Bionee noJapo6Hoe o6cyeHHe 3Toro Bonpoca MOIKHO HaHTH s pa6oTe Besley and Kanbur (1993). a,AHTHsBHJXl noKa3aTeJieH 6eRHOCT14 HOpMaJI3OBaHHbil noKa3aTeim =us noarpynnbl j, PjI/P, MOKHO HHTepnpeTHPOBaTb KaK noKa3aTeJlb "HHTeHCHBHOCTH 6eJHocT"; CM. Rodgers and Rodgers (1991). ,>A

nogrpynn npowflsq 6eaHocTH B o6cyxcAaTbcs 0,4HH H3 MeTO,B oueHKH BKflaaa pa3flIHHbix H3MeHeHAS o6meri 6egHocTH C TeMeHHeM BpeMeHH. flpHMepbI pa3JIHtTHbIX ripoclHjieH 6eCaHocTH 6ynyT nplHBe,eHbI B Pa3gene

3.3.

Pa3momceHue u3MenenuR 6eanocmu: KoMnonenmbz npupocma u nepepacnpeoeAenwlm HHTepeCHO

I4HOrXAa

3agaTbcs

cJieqytoIl4HM

BOnpOCOM:

HaCKOJlEK0

HJUH

HHOe

H3MeHCHHS B pacnpeteAenuu Ha6Jio,aaeMoe H3MeHeHHe 6eaHocTH MoKceT 6blTb "cnHcaHO" Ha 3TOM KOHTeKCTe o6blTHble B ? 3HaHeHHI YPOBHS )KiH3HH, a He Ha npupocm ero cpeRHero Pa3yMeeTcs, B nOKa3aTenH HepaBeHCTBa, TaKHe KaK HHaeKC )1?KHHH, MOryT BBOaHTb 3a6nywgeHHe. .iuo6omy no 0 TOM, qTO COKpalueHie HepaBeHCTBa (onpegenieMoe AeniaTb BbIBO, Henjb3S B Pa3,aene 2.3) 6y,aeT nOKa3aTeJnEO, YAOBneTBoigemy npHHUHry TpaHC4¢epTOB, YnOMAHYTOMY yMeHbilleHHe KOHKpeTHoe KorAa npHBO,1HTb K coKpatueiHHio 6eAHocTH. I1 qaxce B TOM cnyIae,

nopa3ymeBaeT

(yBe1HTweHHe) HepaBeHCTBae4cTBHTeJIbHo

H3MeHeHHe

rnOKa3aTejSi

HepaBeHCTBa

MOwKeT

CJIY)KHTb

coKpaweHHe (yBenHHeHHe) 6egHocTH, njiOXHM OpHeHTHpOM -nJS1 OUCHKH

.H1 HHOrO flOKa3aTeIAS Ha 6eJHOCTb. BpeMeHHOi pqA TOrO niiaHe oemHKH BJIHqHH5 43MeHeHHH B HepaBeHCTBa Mo)KeT 6blTb JOBOJTbHO HeHHmOpMaTHBHbMM B KOJIH,leCTBeHHOFO

B03,eriCTBHs

pacnpe.ge1TeHHH Ha 6eaHbEx. [IpocToe

pa31IoKeHHe

B03MONCHO

,R ino6oro

H3MeHeHHM

oieHKH 6eAHoCTH,

npHPOCTa H nepepacnpegeneeHHs nO3BonSeT KBaHTH4HLHpoBaTb cpaBHHTenbHYIO Ba)KHOCTb

'ITO

(Datt

KaK cyMMa KOMHOHeHTa npHpocTa and Ravallion, 1992b). I43MeHeHHe 6eRHocTH pa3iiaraeTcs 6

JlopeH1la He 6bma cMeWeHa), (H3MeHeHHe 6ezHocTH, KOTOpOe Ha6illoanOcb 6bi, ecnu bl KpHBaS 6bl, ecnH 6bl cpex4Hee repepacnpeenHTeRbHOrO KOMnoHeHTa (u3MeHeHHe, KOTOpOe Ha6JnioIaj1ocb 3(14eKTa npHPOCTa H 3HaMeHHe He 6buo CMelgeHO) H OCTaTKa (B3aHMo3aBHcHMoro nepepacnpe,AeneHHs). Bo3Bpamaslcb K o6o3Ha'IeHHAM,

HcriOflL3OBaHHbIM

oiAeHKa 6exwHocTH npH cpeAHeM 3Ha'4eHHH paCnpeaenjeHHS4 Tor)ja H3MeHeHHe 6eAHOCTH B nepi4HO MewAy AaTaMH 1 CiielyIoulHM o6pa3oM:

ITYCTb

P(z/4i,L) -

YpOBHq )1KH3HH 1l H KPHBOH JlopeHila L. H 2 (HanpHMep) MO)KeT 6blTb pa3no)xeHO

P2 - P1 = G(1,2;r) + D(1,2;r) + R(1,2;r),

(11)

r,Ae

B ypaBHeHHH (1),

nepepacnpeaenJHTenbHblH KoMnOHeHT; R(1,2;r) KOMIIOHeHTi npi4pocTa H nepepacnpeleneHHv onfHcblBa1OTCA CJIegylOO4HMH

G(1,2;r) -KOMnOHeHT nuppocTa; D(1,2;r)

OCTaTOK. [IpH

3TOM

Bblpa>KeHHAIMH:

G(1,2;r) D(1,2;r)

P(z4t2,Lr) - P(Z/gl,Lr), P(z4tr,L2) - P(Z/4tr,LI),

xBa aprymeHTa B a R( 1,2, r) B ypaBHeHHH (1 1) o6o3HamaeT OCTaTOK. B KaxaKoM cnyHae nepBbie a nocneHHru KpyrnjbIX cKO6Kax OTHOCITCA K HaIajbiHOH H KOHeHHoHi gaTaM nepHoAa pa3jio)KeHHiA, pm3nO)xcHHm npOH3BOaHTCA KOTOpOH K apryMeHT o6o3Ha'aeT ,iaTy r, no OTHOUiieHH1O

Ha6Jlio,aaeMoro H3MeHeHHA 6e1ZHOCTH. OCTaTOK B Bblpa)KeHHH (12) cylueCTByeT BCA1KHHi pa3, Korga nOKa3aTenj[

6eAHocT He Mo)KeT 6blTE, a,gHTHBHO pa3geneH Mex)IY g H L, T. e. BCAIKHiH pa3, Korga KpaiiHHe BJIHAHHA H3MeHeHHri cpe,AHerO 3Ha'IeHHIA (KpHBOHi JlopeH1{a) Ha noKa3aTeJIb 6egHocTH 3aBHCIT OT KpHBOHr JlopeHua (cpegHero). B o6uxeM cnyqae OCTaToK He Hcqe3aeT. OH MoxceT HHTepnpeTHpOBaTECA KaK pa3HHua MeN)LY KOMnOHCHTaMi4 rIPHPOCTa (nepepacnpegeneHHA) OLCeHeHHbIX B KOHe4HOri H HaqaJIbHOH KpHBblX JlopeHua (cpeAHHX goxogax) COOTBeTCTBeHHO. EcRiH CpeaHHA XROXOg Unu KpHBaA JlopeHiLa ocTa1OTCS HeH3MeHHbIMH Ha IpOTA)KeHHH

nepHoza pa3JlO)KeHHS,

Bcero

TO OCTaTOK HC4e3aeT.

CooTBeTCTBy1owHe

Pa3,qejTe 3.5.

ripHMeph1

npeACTaBneHbl

Cexmopnioe pa3wowIceHue u3MeueHuw 6eanocmu rIpH aHBafI3e

HCTOxIHHKOB Ha6JnoaaeMbix COKpaiueHHA o6werl 6 egHOCTH MO)KHO OQHOH HpOCTOA 41opMyjJOri pa3jio)KeHHA, npe anoicenHioii B pa6oTe Ravallion and Huppi (1991), a TaKX(e HCCJietOBaTh CBOHiCTBO a,=HTHBHOCTH Kniacca noKa3aTejieA (DoCTepa-FpHpa-TOpH6eKa, KaK 3TO o6cyuajiocb B Pa3aene 2.5. OCHOBHaS HAeA 3,gebC COCTOHT B TOM, To6EbI npojiHTB CBeT Ha OTHOCHTeJThHyIO BaBKHOCTb H3MeHeHHri BHy-pH CeKTOpOB H mexy BOCnOJE3oBaTc6C

ceKTOpaMH -

HaceneHHA

etge

HanpHMep,

H3MeHeHHri,

BbE3BaHHbIX Me)KceKTOpHBIMH

CABHFaMH B MHcjieHHOCTH

Hn3H pa6ojeiH cHJbi.

lfTO6btI rHiHTb6, KaK 3TO MOWKHO cge.JaTb, nycTEB Pit - nOKa3aTeTE,b 6 eCAHOCTH Kniacca (DoCTepa-rpHpa-TopH6eKa (HnH rno6orl ,pyrorl agAUHTHBHMIR nOKa3aTenEb) ARsA ceKTopa i c Aoneii OT HaceiieHiHi n no COCTOAHHIO Ha AaTy t, m - MHCJ1O TaKHX CeKTOpOB, a t = 1, 2. Tor,Ra MO)KHO JnerKO aOKa3aTb, MTO:

(12)

P2 - P1 = X(Pi 2 - PiI)nil (BHyTp4ceKTopHbie 34MeKTbi) + E(ni2 - nil)Pi1 (344eKTbm CgBHrOB B 'HCJeHHOCTH HaceneHH4A) + Y(Pi 2 - Piu) (ni2 - nil) (3q¢eKTEJ B3aHMOCBA3H),

rgae Bce CyMMHpoBaHRA npOH3BOJSTCS 1o i = 1, ... , m. "BHyTpHceKTOpHbie 344eKTm" noKa3bIBaEOT BJIHAHHe H3MeHeHHA 6eaHOcTH BHYTpH CeKTOpOB no cpaBHeHHio C COOTBeTCTByIOWHMH HM AOJIAMH OT HaceneHHIl B 6a3OBbIii nepHo, B TO BpeMS KaK "3 eKTbi CABHrOB B HaceiieHHA

noKa3bBaIoT, HaCKOJIbKO

'HciieHHOCTH eqHOCTb no COCTOSHHIO Ha nepByio AaTy COKpaTHJIaCb no,

BO3Z1ercTBHeM pa3jiHmqHbIx H3MeHeHHHi aoiieri CeKTOpOB B HaCeiJeHHH 3a nepmog Mexc)y nepBOA H BTOpOH4 aaTaMH. 3l4eKTbM B3aHMOCBS3H BbiTeKaEOT 43 BO3MO)KHOHi KOPPeJISLHH MexKZIy noflo)KHTeAbHbIMH H3MeHeHHMMH B ceKTopax H CABHraMH B MHcjieHHOCTH HaceJIeHHA; 3HaK 3¢4eKTOB B3aHMOCBS3H nOKa3bBlaeT, 6bEuH JnH jHOaH CKJOHHbI nepexogwHTb B Te

cecKTopa, r[e

6elHOCTb CHH)KanaCb, H1H HeT.

2.7

YCTONIHBOCTh6 nOpigicKOBhiX cpaBHHTejinHlix oiAeHoIC 6eUHOCTH

BbEnue npH o6cyxcgeHHH HeKOTOpEMX BOnpOCOB Mbl BmAejIH, qTO HMeeT MeCTO BcenpoHHKaolUasA HeonpeaeiieHHOCTb OTHOCHTejibHO B03MO)KHO KpHTHqeCKH Ba)KHLIX acneKTOB cpaBHHTeJIbHOro aHaji3a 6eHocTH. CKopee Bcero, cyIecTByIOT OUIH6KH B HaluHx ;jaHHbEX o6 ypOBHe )KH3HH, HeH3BecTHbie pa3w4MHA B noTpe6HocTAx Mec,y ROMOXO3sArCTBaMH C OJgHHaKOBbEM

YpOBHeM

noTpe6ieHHA,

6e,aHoCTH, TaK H TOMHOrO

HeOilpe,Lej1eHHOCTH

nOKa3aTeJIu

KaK

lpOH3BOJIbHOCTH

OTHoIIeHHH

'iepTbi

6eAHoCTH. Y'qHTbIBas 3TH npo6neMbl, 3araLHMcSI BOnpOCOM:

I43MeH4JIHCb 6bl OHU, eciiH HaCKOJIbKO wKe yCTOi4IHBbl HaiUH CpaBHHTejiEHble oUeHKH 6eRHocTH? 6bl Mbl caeaJIH anbTepHaTHBIbie npegnojioweHHq? 6eAHOcTH noKa3anH, KaK HegaBHO ony6nHKoBaHHble HCCjieQOBaHHA B o6nacTH aHanH3a IpHMeHeHHSH TeOPHH pe3yJIbTaTOB OT Mbl MO)KeM OTBeTHTb Ha TaKHe BOnpOcbl, OTTaAKHBaACb 3Toro noAxoga, OnHcaHHe CTOXaCTHMeCKOr4 AOMHHaHTHOCTH H pa3BHBaSl Hx. 51 gaM 3IeMeHTapHoe nbiTaioiueroca OInATb-TaKH Ha YAOBJICTBOpeHHe noTpe6HocTeri aHaniHTHKa, opHeHTHPOBaHHoro

94 6eAHocTH . B cnyqae npOH3BecTH pa3yMHO-AOcTaToqHypo YCTOuqHByio cpaBHHTejibHy1o o0eHKy A TaKKe n03HaKOMjiiO O0HHO'qHoro nOKa3aTeJTI 6JlarocoCTOsHHR 3agama aHaYIH3a o6JlerqaeTCA, HO

q'HTaTeJDA C OCHOBaMH TeOpHH MHOrOMepHOHi AOMHHaHTHOCTH.

YcAo6uew boMuHaHmHoumu npu cpa6ynumeiibUbnx ozjeHKax 6e8nocmu noa1epKHyTo B Pa3,aene 2.4, Bceraa nofle3HO paccMoTpeTm oAHy HJI etue O)AHH imar BnepeA HecKojhKo gOnORHmTeabHbix rpaHH4i 6eaHOCTH. AaBaRTe TenepE cAejiaeM HHAeKCa M4CJIeHHOCTH H Boo6pa3HM ce6e KpHByIO, npegcTaBJsIfOuy1o co6o0H rpa4HK 3aBmcHMocTH 6eAHOCTH (no 6e)jHbix H (3Ha4eHHS KOTOpOrO OTKJIaiabBaIOTCS nO BepTHKaJIH) OT x4epTbi B npegenax OT HYJIAS O MaKCHMaJIbHoro ropH3oHTaj), rge 3Ha1eHHe riociie4HeO H3MeHAleTC KOTOpyIO MOWKHO noTpe6iieHml. 3TO He wTO HHOe, KaK 4fyHKIAHS KYMYJIASTHBHOrO pacnpeaejieHUI4, pacnpocmpaiennocmu 6ebHocmu" F(z) - KaBXaa TOqKa 3TOH KpHBOH CtHTaTb "KpUffiO 3Ha'IeHHA, oTJIoX(eHHoro no nOKa3biBaeT, y KaKori AojiH HaceneHHA o6beM noTpe6JIeHA MeHbUlle 3TOH KpHBOH OT HYJIn AO rioA rmowaaEb ropH3oHTaIbHOri OCH (PHCYHOK 4(a)). Ec.nH paCCqHTaTh "Kpu6yio 6equtjuma Kax)KoiH TOqK4 BeiHqHHbi nOTpe6neHHS (AoxoaoB), MO)KHO nOCTpOpTb 4(b)). Ha CaMOM aenie KaxQaA TO'qKa 3TOU KpUBOHi ABJIaeTCa HU mleM KaK 6buo

6e6nocmu" D(z)

(PUCYHOK HHbIM, KaK npoH3BeAeHHeM 3HaqeHHA HHaeKCa rny6HHbi 6eaHocTH

Ha HepTy 6eXHocTH z. EcJIH

B Kax(ROR TOMKe, noJ1yqHM HOBYfO CHOBa paccmHTaTh nnIOIUaAb noA KpHBOH4 ae4HuHTa 6e,4HocTH

S(z) (PHCYHOK 4(c)); KaKzaA KpHByEO, KOTOpyIO MO)KHO Ha3BaTb "KpUfOU oCmpombi 6e8nocmu" cDocTepa-rpmpa-TopH6eKa. ToIqKa 3TOR KpUBOU4 npAMo nponopimOHajTHa noKa3aTeJHo P 2 xnacca

B rIpHnoKeHHH 2

npHBO)XqTCA

6onee 4opMaAbHbie onpegeJieHmn

F(z), D(z) H S(z) H B

MepTax oHHCbIBaeTcA, KaK MO)KHO ROKa3aTb OCHOBHbie BbIBOUbI HacToxwero

o6uIx

nogpa3geJia.

rlpeAnojoOKM, qTO HaM HeH3BeCTHO 3Ha'eHRe tlepTbl 6eRHocTH Z, HO MbI TBepXO 3HaeM, 3HaIeHHe noKm3aTeJI 'ITO OHO He npeBbiiaeT zmax. rpearUojio,KHM TaKCe, iTO HaM HeH3BeCTHO CBOHCTBa TaKoro nOKa3aTejsi, 6eAHocTH, HO Mbl Mo)KeM onpeAejiHTb HeKoTopbIe )KejiaTenfbHbie 95 nOKa3aTb, wTO 6eX4HOCTb MO)KHO Torga . BKOIIO'Iaa BbllneynoMsHyToe CBOH4CTBO a=iUTHBHOCTH

pacnpocTpammomT O0U4O3HamHo y6blBaeT B npOMe)KyTKe Mew44y ABYMA AaTaMH, eCIiH KpHBaS RaTe, HH B OAHOri 6egHOCTH (KyMJynATHBHoe pacmpeaeneHme), COOTBeTCTBYOmaA nocneAHer 94

Saposnik (1962), Hadar and Russell TeopHA CToxacTHqecKori AOMHHaHTHOCTH OnliCaHa B pa6oTax Quirk and nlpH paH)KHpOBaHHH nOKa3aTeJner gOMiHaHTHOCTH YcjioBHR (1970). Stiglitz (1969) H Rothschild and no 6eRHoc-rH CM. B pa6oTax paHKHpoBaHHA BonpocCb (1970); Atkinson pa6oTe B OnHCbIBaIOTCB HepaneHc-ra

Atkinson (1987) H Foster and Shorrocks (1988). noKa3aTeS1MH 6e&AHocm H rOBOPR 6o0iee TO'IHO, Haumie BHHMaHHe orpaHH'HBaeTcB TOJIbKO a=KTHBHbrMH B BHJie MOHOTOHHoro 3anHcaTb MO)KHO KOTOpblrt noKa3aTeneM, Jo6brM OnHCbIBalOTCA Bbipawe(eHHeM (8) HnH BCe rloKa3aTeJlH ynOBneTnOpAioT YCJIOBHIO 3ToMy noKa3aTeis. a=JHTHBHoro uHoro HunH npeo6pa3oBaHuHs Toro 1989, Chap1987, (Atkinson, Knacca cDocTepa-rpHpa-TopH6eKa, o6cyxKcaBmuHecx B Pa3aenie 2.5. ATKHHCOH H3 npHMepu ApyrHe UInpHBOaHT H 6eAHocTr ter 2) xapaKTepH3ye'r Ha6op AoOIycTHMbIx noKa3aTejie9 JIHTepaTypbE.

TOMKe He j1e)KHT BB6IIle KpHBOHi, cooTBeTcTByEOiueri nepBOH AaTe, Ha BCeM OTpe3Ke OT 0 3To ycnoBHe Ha3blBaloTycjio6ueM ooMuianmnnocmu nepco2o nopO3Ka (AMIf).

nepBoro nopsAKa qacTOTHbIx pacnpeAieneHHr4

AOMHHaHTHOCTB6 KyMyJIATHBHbIX

nOKa3aHa

PHCyHKe

4(a).

CTPOM

go zmax.

rpac¢HK

aoiierl HaceiieHHS, o6feMbi HoTpe6JieHHS KOTOPbIX HaXOAUITCs HHmwe pa3J1HqHbIX ypOBHeri nOTpe6iieHHii) B COCTOAHHAX A H B, HaXOJlHM, TO KPHBaq A BO BCeX TO'lKax npoxoRIHT Bbwle KpHBOHl B. BeRHOCTb B COCTOSHHH A Bbliue, MeM B COCTOSHHH B He3aBHCHMO OT 3HaHeHHs 4IepTBI HU1H nOKa3aTeJlM (KYMYJIqTHBHbIX

HpOiueHTHblX

6egHocTH.

EcJi

KPHBbi6e nepeceKatoTcl, KaK noKa3aHO Ha PHcyHKa 5(a) (a OHH MOryyT nepeceKaTbcA

6o0nee

OaHoro pa3a), TO paH)KHpOBaHHe CTaHOBHTCS HeOqHO3HaH6HbIM. OAHH mepTbl 6eRHocTH H O,RHH noKa3aTenH 6eAHocTH 6yAyT paH)KHpOBaTb pacripeaeJIeHHs4 He TaK, KaK RpyrHe. B 3TOM ciyQae HaM HyoKHa RonOJIHHTeJIbHas 4HwopMaaqmq. MO)KHO orpaHwiqHTb wafla3OH 3HaMeHHH 'epTb1

6eRHOCTH HnH npH4aaTb HOKa3aTejuo 6eiHocTTH 6onbWylo CTPYKTYPHYIO ynOp;AUO0eHHOCTb.

Area under

Cumulative

poverty

poreentage

theiciec population of

icdro curve

Shaded area in panal (a)

zmax

;

ncome'

zmax

(b) Poverty Deficit Curve for Distribution B

(a) Poverty Incidence Curves for two Distributions A and B

Area under poverty deficit

curve

Shaded area in panel (b)

z max

Income'

4. IIOCTpOeHHe

PUcyHOIC

6eRHoCTH"

rpa4rmCOB TpeX noica3aTeaefl 6eaHocTH. KaKRaas TOqKa Ha "KpHBOH Re4Hawra

(b) npeacTaBnsqeT co60H ruiouAaab no1a "KpHBOHl pacnpocTpaHeHHOCTH 6eaHocTH" (a) B TOqKe

TOqKa CooTBeTCTByIOlterO o6feMa noTpe6nJeHMA HJIH BeUHqHHbi aoXOaOB. AHaBjOrUqHblM o6pa3oM Kawacaa 6eAHoCTH. AenHITa KpHBOHl Ha KpHBOtt OCTpOTbi 6eRHOCTH (c) paBHAeTCI COOTBeTCTBYO1eH nJIOuaAH noa

6exHbIblX U OrpaHHqHTbCq oTpaaKaOT rny6HHy paCCMOTpeHHeM a2JHTHBHbix noKa3aTeneH, KOTOplie zerCTBHTenjbHO cTporo y6blBaIOT H KOTOpbie 1oKa3aTeneri, e. (T. P H 2 6e.rHOCTH - HanpHMep, TaKUMH Kaic PG BbinJymJocTb), TO cna6yio 6bl XOTS rpa(j3K 3aBHCHMOCTH KOTOpblX OT AOXOaOB 6egHbIX MCeeT aus MO)KHO HcnOJlb3OBaTb yciomue £oMuuanmHocmu cmopozo nopqoKa (ABn). Torga ECJIH HCKAIO4UHTB

H3 paccMoTpeHl,I

HHXaeKC 4HUCJieHHOCTH

income'

yMeHblIeHHS

6eLIHOCTH Heo6xOaHMO,

ro6bi KpHBaA ,Ce4HuuTa 6eqHOcTH, 3a;xaBaemas rinoiuagiwo nO,4 KpHBOH KYMYJIATHBHOrO pacnpeaeneHHS, HH B OQHOH TOMKe BIJIOTb ,ao MaKCHManbHOH qepTb 6e;XHOCTH He TOJTbKO He 6bmIa pacnojioKeHa HuHXce nono)KeHHs, COOTBeTCTByiowero 6onee paHHel gaTe, HO H HaXOuHnaCb XOTS 6bl HCMHOrO BbHEie 3TOrO rIOJIO)KCHHiA9 6 . 3To nOKa3aHO Ha PHCYHKe

5(b). )1BrI

AAsA Bcero pacnpeaeneHHA 3KBHBaBJeHTHO

Jlopeuya. O6o6u4eHHas

toMunanmnocmu no o6o6ulenuoii Kpueou

JlopeHua (OKJI) 31BJ1ACTCS HH HeM HHbIM, KaK o6bIKHOBeHHOH KpHBOii JlopeHua (o KOTOPOH inia peCb B Pa3gene 2.4), CMemeHHOr BBePX Ha cpeAHee 3HaqeHHe nOKa3aTeJTh 6narocOcTOAHHs; TaKHM o6pa3oM, OHa npeAC)TaBnAeT co6oi rpa4HK 3aBHCHMOCTH KpHBaS

KYMYJISTHBHorO 3HaqeHHs nOKa3aTeIAs 6narocOcTOAHHs (OTinagblBaeMOro nO BCpTHKajIbHOH OCH H HopManH30BaHHoro no pa3Mepy HaceJieHHA) aiSi 6eXtHerilux p npoueHTOB HaceneHHA ( p paH)KHpOBaHO H OTInaIb)BaeTCA no ropH3oHTaJIbHoH OCH) 9 7 . EcJIH OKJI pacHpeAeneHI4 BO BCeX TO'KaX pacnono)KeHa BbIlUe OKJI pacnpeaeneHisA B, TO rlJoUa,ab noR KYMYJUATHBHbIM

'{aCTOTHbIM

pacnpeHenjeHHeM A

0oJnI-Ha 6blTb BO BCeX TOqKaX MeHbHie nfloulagH nog paCnpeaeJIeHHeM B. CnegyeT 3aMCTHTb, ITO paHXCHPOBaHHe no o6o6igeHHOA KpHBOii JlopeHUa HpOTHBOrOojOwKHO paH)K4pOBaHi4O nO KpHBOU ged34U1HTa 6e,RHOCTH. 3aMeTHM, '-ITO BblCwaS TO4qKa OKA ABJISCTCS CpCe;HHM 3HaqeH4eM; TaKHM o6pa3oM, KYMJIATHBHbIM

4aCTOTHbIM

OAH4M H3 HCo6XOaUMbEX yCJIOB4H y6blBaHIa 6eCHOCT4 npH BCCX B03MOKHb1X HepTax 6eaHOCTR H Bcex rOKa3aTen2x, oTpaKaioiiHx ocTpoTy 6eRHOCTM, qBfSICTCS Hey6biBaHHe CpeCfHerO 3HaqeHHS. PaccyxasA aHajiOr4'UqHbIM o6pa3oM, MOCHO BbIBeCTriieme OaHO Heo6XORHMoe yCnOBHe, KOTOpOe COCTOHT B TOM, qTO HaHHH3UIHH WH3HCHHbIH YPOBeHb He JgOjiKeH llagaTb (HaHHH3MHM )KH3HeHHbIM YPOBHeM SBjieTCS caMas HHiKHA

TO'Ka Ha OKJI, pacHnoJ7oKeHHaS HeflOCpeCCTBeHHO ee C HyjnM). Ec.rn zmax - MaKCHMajibHbIH gOXOg, TO He CTOJ1b Ba)KHO, C nOMOIUb1O KaKO4 KPHBOH Mbl npOBepeMM Bb-OJIHeRHHe YCJIOBHS ABII KpHBOH geTICUJHTa

nepe,a TO'IKOH nepeceeHHsi

6eiRHOcTH HnH

o6o6TueHHOi KPHBOH JlopeHua, OjHaKO TnpH MCHbHIHX 3HaLieHHI4X zmax jiyi"we HCHOJnb3OBaTb KpHByIO ge41HLIHTa 6eHOcTH (Howes, 1992; CM. TaKmCe HpHno?KeHCHe 2).

B 6ojibiue

Tex c"y4aAlx, KorI-a aBfl He nO3BOJIeTcT Cje1aTETb OKOH4aTejibHorO BbIBoga, MOXCHO eie OrpaHHqHTbE Hana3OH aOrfyCT4Mb6X nOKa3aTejieH 6eaHOcTH. EciH MO)KHO

,OBOJTbCTBOBaTbCA

TOJIbKO qyBCTBHTCJIbHbIMH K pacnpeaenieHHIo nOKa3aTeJISMH, TaKHMH KaK P 2 H PG), TO MO)KHO rpoBCp4Tb BbinoJIHeHHC YCJOBHA )AOMHHaHTHOCTH TpeTbero nopAaKa (ATrl); Torjga ,U1 OAHO3Hax-Horo cpaBHeHH51 6e,IHOcT4 npH Bcex 'iepTax 6eIRHOCTH HeO6XOqHMO, qT06b1 KPHBaS OCTpOTbi 6ejHOcTI BO BCCX TO4KaX B OJAHOH H3 4ByX CpaBHHBaeMbIX cHTyaIWH 6bmna pacnonio)KeHa BblwIe. rIpU Heo6xoal4MOCTH MO)KHO ZROnOIHHTCebHO HPOBepHTb BbIIOJ]HCHHe yCJIOBHA AOMHHaHTHOCTH 6onee BbICOKOrO nOpSAaKa, XOTA HHTepripeTauiHS (Bce 6onee H 6o0iee) OrpaHHqeHHOrO Kniacca noKa3aTeJIeH CTaHOBHTCS BCe MeHeeH MeHeeC oHO3HaqHOH 9 8 . (HO Tenepb yAce

HcKioa4SaAH

96 KPHBaA aeH4nuiwra 6eqHocTK o6cyYKaaeTcq Bpa6oTe Atkinson (1987). CM. TaKKe FpHjiO)KeHHe 2. 97 O6o6weHHaA KPHBaA JlopeHua o6cyAaeTCn B pa6oTax Shorrocks (1983), Kakwani (1984) H Lambert (1989).

CM. TaKoce pa6ory Thistle (1989) (B KOTOpOH aaeTcA HecKoJIbKo HHoe onpegeneHHe OKJI, HO 3TO oTjIHqHe He mrpaeT 3Aesch peulamouierl poJIH). COOTHoiueHue MCexcy OKJI H KpHBOHi aeIHUHTa 6eaHOCTH o6cyxQaeTcA B pa6oTax Atkinson and Bourguignon (1989) H Foster and Shorrocks (1988b). CBOgHhbit nepeqeHb 3THX onpe,aeneHHri H ocHoBHbIe pe3yJIbTaTbi MO)KHO HaHTH B

FIpH npoBepKe ,AOMHHaHTHOCTH

qCTBepTFO

FlpHno)KeHHH 2.

nOpsAIKa H3 Bcex

noKa3aTenJeH

Kniacca d)OCTepa-FpHpa-TopH6eKa

Haiue BHHMaHHe OrpaHHiHBaeTCA ToJnBKO nOKa3aTenIAMH Pa ripH a 2 3. 1'HTepnpeTaumno TaKHX noKa3aTeJleri MO)KHO HaHTH B pa6oTe Kakwani (1980b).

Cumulative percentage of the populatlon

*Income'

z (a)

Poverty deficit B

'ncome'

(b)

PPycyHoI

5. IlepeceicaboutHeca

6e,Auocm". ,f,ni pacnpeaeneHHuI A Ha OlTYCTHMaA qepTa 6eaHocTH MeHbuie z; 3TO

KPHBb6[e pacnpOCTpaHeHHOCTH

PHcyHKe 5(a) 6eaHOCTb Bbniue, ecntH maKcHmamnEHaR cripaBeanHBo AUBmcex Tpex noKa3aTenerl 6eAHoCTH -

H, PG

(H 4 aKTWiecKH

Ani Bcex

a,UHTHBHhIX

noKa3aTeneH). IHpeAtnoo)1KHM, 'ITO lepTa 6eXIHOCTH MO)*eT )ROCTHraTB 3Ha4eHHSI zma. TorAa 6e,AHOCTb IUa A BEune, Bblnie, ecnu ee KPHBaA aeu[)Hwa 6etHocTH (nnouxaAb no, KpHBOUi Ha PHCyHKe 5(a)) pacnonio*eHa cnpaBeAeUuBo 3TO 5(b); PHCyHKe Ha nOKa3aHO KaK Ze', o leM KpHsax ,te4HUHTa 6eXtHocTH B BO Bcex To4Kax =A PG H P2 , HO He xis H.

paCCMOTpHM HaMqajEHoe MITO6bl I1pOHRUIIOCTpHpOBaTb BCe TpH KpHTepHA4 ,OMHHaHTHOCTH, JIo6oMy KOHemHoMy CoCTOAHUe, B KOTOpOM TpH qenOBeKa HMelOT o6'leMbI noTpe6JIeHHA (1, 2, 3). 6onee BblCOKUHi o6beM COCTOAIHHIO, B KOTOPOM XOT51 6bl O,LHH 113 TpeX 13 3THX iiioAei HMelOT 6yzQeT COOTBeTCTBOBaTb yMeHbLUlHCS, He HHX 143 KOro H o6fem noTpe6neHHsI HH y

noTpe6jieHlI4,

BO BCeX 60nee HH3KO pacnolioceHHag KpHBaA pacnpoCTpaHeHHOcTH 6eRHocTH (pacnoio)KeHHaq uinu 4epTe nlo6o6 npH1 CBOUX TOqKaX cTporO HH)Ke H HH B OA1HOH To0qKe Bbile) H, cnIeOBaTenbHo, HU y noramaTene 6eAHocTH 3TO COCTOHHue He 6yxeT xapaKTepH30BaTEcI nOBbiu1eHHeM 6ezRHoCTH (2, 2, 3) Koro H3 paccMaTpHBaeMbix uorgerl; npfMepaMH TaKHX KOHeemHbIx COCTOSHHS RBjIqIOTC[q Kp14BEle Bce HeM B 2). 2, (2, HnH (1, 2, 4). PacCMOTpHM TenepEb HHOe KOHeY'HOe COCTOAHHe 6e,AHOCTH 'lepTax pacnpocTpaHeHHOCTu 6eaHocTH nepeceKaloTcg ,4pyr C RpyroM: npH HeKOTOPb1X HCTOJ1KOBaHO KaK H HeKOTOpbiX nOKa3aTenSIx 6ezaHocmu 3TO KOHe'*HOe COCTOAHHe 6yet-eT

yJyt.uleHHe, B TO BpeMS

KaK npH apyr4x OHO 6yaeT HHTepnpeTHpOBaHO

cpaBHeHHJO C Ha'{aJIbHbIM coCTOSHHeM.

= 2,1.) Of,HaKO

KaK yxygmeHHe no

(CpaBHHTe HHaeKcbi qHCjieHHOCTH 6eaHbIx

P4H Z =

1,9 H Z

KPHBble ,ge(HLura 6eaHOCTH He nepeceKaioTcA; B HaqanjbHOM COCTOSHHH KPHBaq

ge4HuHTa 6egHocTH xapaKTepH3yeTC3I 3Hax-eHHAMH (1, 3, 6) (COOTBeTCTBYIOIHMH o6 beMaM noTpe6neHHsI 1, 2 H 3), a B KOHeIHOM COCTOSHHH (2, 2, 2)- 3Ha'eHHAMH (0, 3, 6). TaKHM o6pa3oM, 6e,aHOCT6 CHH3HTCA (HIH, no KpaHHeH Mepe, He Bo3paCTeT) npH BCeX IepTax 6e,RHOCTH H BCeX nOKa3aTeJlAx 6CeHOCTH, y6blBaiowHx C POCTOM noTpe6jieHHSI 6eRHbxX, TaKHX KaK PG H P 99. 2

WTO rlpOH3OHAjeT,

eCJ1H KOHeMHoe COCTOAHHe 6yaeT xapaKTepH30BaTbCA

noTpe6JieHHA (1,5, 1,5, 2)? B Ta6.rnL4e 4

o6¶beMaMH

ripeXCTaBJIeHbl 3HaneHHJq KPHBbiX pacnpocTpaHeHHOCTH

6e,aHOCTH, Ie4iHuHTa 6eAHOCTH H OCTpOTbi 6eaHOCTH. gia)Ke ecCuJ OrpaHH4HTbCA paCCMOTpeHHeM TORbKO lyBCTBHTenbHbIX K pacnpeaejieHHIo nOKa3aTeieH 6eaHocTH, OAHH qepTbi 6eCRHOCTH 6yxyT PaH)KHPOBaTb 3TH COCTOSHHA He TaK, KaK apyrHe. OTMeTHM, O,4HaKO, qTO TOHKa nepeceqeHE>R

npeBbiuaeT 3HaqeHHe 2; ruo6aA qepTa 6eaHocTH, pacnono*KeHHas HH7Ae 3TOH TO'qKH, nOKa*ceT cHH)KeHHe 6eRHocTH IpH Bcex IyBCTBHTeJIbHbIX K paCrlpeaeRIeHHIO KPHBbIX OCTPOTbi 6eRHocTH

noKa3aTeJ7Ax 6eaHOCTH, TaKHX KaK P2 100.

Ta6.rnu4a

Kpunwme

pacIpOCTpaBeHHOCTH

c HaqanibHbiMH o67beMaMH HoTpe6j1eHnH (1,5, 1,5, 2)

6e,qHOCTH AJI5

Tpex .iuo,eii

KpHBaM paCnpOCTpaHeHHOCTH 6eaHocTH F(z)

rIoTpe6.neHHe (z)

6enHOCTH,

rjly6fHbi

6CeLHOCTH

o61eMaMH noTpe6.rieHun (1,

KpHBaA rJIy6HHbi 6eaHocTu D(z)

2, 3)

KpHBa

OCTpOTblI

ICOHe-inbMH

ocCTpoTEi 6ejaHocTH S(z)

HaqajibHoe

KOHeIHOe

HaqajmfHoe

KOHeqHoe

HaqaJIbHoe

KOHeqHoe

3HaqeHHe

3HaxieHRe

3HaqeHHe

3HaieHRe

1/3

1,5 2 3

1/3 2/3 1

2/3 1 1

2/3 4/3 7/3

2/3 5/3 8/3

1 7/3 14/3

2/3 7/3 15/3

Korua ,RBa MaCTOTHbIX pacnpeAejieHHsI

BeCbMa 6nH3KH,

Mbl MO)KCM

rioKenjaTb ,ZlIAi ,fl 3TO

TaKoKe

OLAeHHTb CTaTHCTH1ieCKyfO 3HaqHMOCTb cywecTByiouero MexMgy HHMH pa3JiH4HS4.

MO)KHO caenaTb BecbMa nerKo, HCnOJIb3yS KpHTepHlH KonMoropOBa-CMHpHoBa, B OCHOBe KOTOpOFO neXCHT HaH6onbiuee paCCTOSHHe no BepTHKanH Mmexy flBYMSA KYMYJIS1THBHbIMH 'IaCTOTHLIMH

KpHBbIMH; npHMepbI HpHMiHeHHS1 3Toro rpOCToro KpHTepH4, a TamoKe Ta6yJSAIAHH BaxKHe4iLuHx 3HaHeHHH4 MOIKHO 6e3 Tpy,a oTiEcKaTh B ii1TepaType (CM., HanpHMep, Daniel, 1990, Chapter 8). rIpH aOMHHaHTHOCTH 6onee BbICOKOrO nops,aKa cTaTHCTH4IecKyIo 3Ha'IHMOCTb onpeeainHTb TpynHee, H Tpe6yloTCs

6o0nee pa3BHTbje MeTOmbi; CM. Bishop et al (1989),

Chow

et al (1991)

Howes and Lanjouw (1991).

ECJIH 3HaMeHHe qepTbi 6eRHocTH He npeBblluaeT 2, OAHO3HWaHoe cHH)KeHHe 6eqHocTH Ha6miogaeTcA npH Bcex TaKHX noKa3aTeJJMX. 100 YcjioBHe aoMHHaTHOcTrH 'eTBepToro nopsAKa BbinORHAMeTCA 1l3 BceX TOqeK, cnieAoBaTeJIbHo noKa3aTeJnH Kmacca 0oCTepa-FpHpa-TopH6eKa npH ot 2 3 H noKa3aTeJib YoTTca HOKaXKyT CHH)KeHHe 6eXaHocrR npH BCex B03MO)KHbIX

EepTax

6ezaHocTH.

CAyl1au,

eo6xoOuuo ucnoJJb3oeaHueHeCKOJ7bKux u3MuepeHuu

6 Komopbllx

AHaJorHqHbie HReH npHHMeHHMbl H B TeX cnyMaix, Korga 'epTbi 6e)IHOCTH nrip nepexoge OT OJHOrO )IOMOX03sIiiCTBa (oTge.nbHOrO teJIOBeKa) K apyrOMy (apyroMy) H3MeHAIOTCA co6ofi HeH3BeCTHbIM cnoco6oM. HanpHMep, ou4fl6KH B O1ieHKe YpOBHA )KH3HH MOryT noBjieMb 3a Heo6xOaHMocTb

HcnOnb3oBaHHMA

rpaHHLt

pa3n4HMHbIX

6exHocTH

j ns

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H4OCHOBaHHbIX Ha Bo-BTopbix, CTpaHbi pa3fiW4qaioTcS no COOTHOuIeHHH1O COiHJaBbHb1X HHXaHKaTOpOB noTpe6neHUH noKa3aTejne 6eqHocTH; OAHH cTpaHbl C BbICOKOU noTpe6HTenbcKoH 6eAHocTblo Mjia1eHqeCKy1O HMeEOT BeCbMa HennioxHe COUHanJbHb1e HHAHKaTOpbl - HarlpHMep, H43KYO 0 5 B cHJIy 3+4eKTHBHOri CHCTeMbl 3gpaBooxpaHeHHA, B TO BpeMSI KaK apyrHe - HeTI .

CMePTHOCTb3TH pa3JuIHIMu

o6cneAOBaHHA MeKIy CTpaHaMH MOryT 3aTpyfaHHTb oLueHKY CTeneHH 6eAHocTH 6e3

e 3KOHOMHqeCKHe H couHajibHb1e aaHHb1e MoryT XROMOX03ArICTB. JlerKOAOcTynHbie arperi4poBaHHbn 6eflHOCTH B TOU 1aaBaTh B jIy4UweM cny-4ae nHIub rpy6oe npeaCTaneiHHle o pacpOCTpaHeHHOCTH HJInH HHOU cTpaHe.

OTAeJlbHO B3xTOU CTpaHbl He npeAnojlaraeT 3HaHHA noKa3aTejlM 6enHocTH OCTanbHOU 21 CTpaHbi. ,JiM xIaHHO4 KOHKpeTHOUi CTpaHbi, XOTA OH H3BecTeH xaIu KaUXO13 U rOCyZapCTBCHHbIX pacxoAoa iia 6eRHoCTH 3AopOBEs, nOKaMaTenaMw mexcy CoOTHolueHHe 105 (1993). 3gpaBOOXpaHeHHe B 3THX CTpaHax OnHcaHO B pa6oTe Anand and Ravallion

104

3aMeTHM, qTo oileHKa Ans%JIo6ot

Head-count Index of Poverty (% of population poor) 0 Survey Estimate

Predicted

60 50

1 2

6 7

9 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Country

PHCYHoc 6.

OueICHKa UHHxeca 'IUCjieHHOCTH 6eAHL6IX 6e3 o6cjieAoBaHHr AOMOX03$1rHCTB. OueHKH B pai3HqHbix cTpaHax C HCnoJlb3oBaHHeM aIaHHbIX, nonyaeHHbLX B xoae o6cAejeoBaHH31 AOMOX03BflCTB, B cpaBHeHHH C pe3yJIbTaTaMH, noH0yJeHHb1MH nyTeM 3KcTpanojiUHL1 COBoKynHFLx HHARHKaTOPOB H noKa3aTenerl 6elHocTH ,Wqs apyrHx CTpaH. (I4CTOqHHK: pacqeTbi aBTOpa.)

6e,aHOCTH

3.2

HacKionibCo TOqHO HoKa3aTejiH, PaCCqHTaHHbiC Ha 6a3e O0,HOMOMeHTHl6X

o0cjeBAoBaHHf, B6l1BJIHIIOT JOjirOBpeMeHHblX 6eANHb6X?

HOKM3aTeJIH HHq14BHrAyanbHoro

2.3,

KOTOpble

HCOIEb3oBAHCEb

AMHel-H-oro

KaK npH OUeHKe

ypOBHS, o6cyx(AaBuiHecA B Pa3xaejlax

2.2 H

TaK H B UeesBbix nporpammax coicpaigeHH 6eaHOCTH, KaK npaBHsO, H3MepAlOT xapaKTepHCTHKH aOMOX03AACTB no COCTOSHHIO Ha OTAeJIbHO B3'sryfo ,uaTy HnH B TeieHHe .AOBOnbHO HeCrpoaOJDKHTeJIbHoro nepHo.za BpeMeHH. 6eRHOCTH

ORHaKO, YqHTbEIBaS TOT lpaKT, 4TO .IOMOXo3$IiCTBa NCHBYT B H3MeHAIOUUHXCA C TetleHHeM BPeMCHH YCJOBHslX H MoryT npHcnoca6nHBaTbCS K 3THM H3MeHeHSiM, npu pac'eTe noKa3aTeneM Ha OCHOBe XaaHHbIX OaHOMOMeHTHb1X o6c.neaOBaHWi MO)KeT TaKwe 6blTb HCnOJIb3OBaHa AoHoJ1HHTeJibHaA

nojle3Has Ba)KHO,

HH43OpMaUHA H3 .apyrHx HCTOqHHKOB, KaK 3T0 o6cytcaaj1ocb B Pa3,eene nOCKOJIbKy

coKpalueHHe

XpOHHWeCKOA

6eaHocTH,

HeCOMHeHHO,

2.2. 3TO OqeHb

IBjAe-1TCSq

OgHOA

OCHOBHbEX ue.ieri nonUHTiucH nepepacnpetaeneHHS.

co)KaieHHlO, HH anpHOPHbEe paccywcLeHHS, HH orpaHH4eHHb[e pacnonaraemwle z(aHHble ABJISIOTCS Ha1ge)KHbIM OpHeHTHPOM B Bbi6ope CTaTH4eCKOrO nOKa3aTens qJIS1 BbISBJieHHS 69

HanpHMep,

6eaHbix.

XpOHH4leCKHX

axKe

eCCH

nOTpe6jieHHe

cemer

pa3JIH4IHbIX

ycneurno

KaK olU46KH o01eHKH H CTerieHb crnaWHBaeTcAr C TeqeHHeM BpeMeHH, Apyrie 4aKTOpbi - TaKHe pa3HbiX ceMeH - BJIHSIOT Ha CHHXpOHHOCTH H3MeHeHHS pa3JIHIqHbIX CTaTHlLeCKHX noKa3aTeneeH y XpoHHimeCKOi 6 Bbl op MeWAY TeKy1IUHM HOTpe6JleHHeeM H TeKyiuiM AOXOAOM KaK nOKa3aTen5IMH 6eaHoCTH.

1992) HcCneAOBajiH, KaK H PaBeJijibOH (Chaudhuri and Ravallion, HCnOJIb3OBaTbCS J]OHrHTbIOAHble (o6cnegoBaHHs, HpOBO0A4MLIe ajHTenJbHOe BpeMA) AaHHbIe MOryT npe,AnaraeTcsi I4MH cHTyaLIHAx. npuH Bbl6ope cTaTHqeecKoro noKa3aTeiSi B 6onee THH4qHbIX lTayHAxypH

IIPOCTOH

nOKa3aTeJIb

HOpMaTHBHbIA

HAeHTHK3KaUH

XPOHH-ieCKHx

6eRHbIX.

rioKa3aTeJiieH

CTaTHqCCKHX

394eKTHBHOCTH

H3MepAeTCS

393eKTHBHOCTb

o6Meri

fplH

CTOHMOCTbIO

B03Aei!CTBHs Ha XpOHH4eCKyEO

HeO6XOAL4MbIX TpaHCmepTOB AJIS ,AOCTHXKeHHSI mno6oro nOilarOBO HaqHHaS OT HeJIOBeKa, 6e,aHocTb B Tex ciyM"aAx, Korma 3TH TpaHC¢eCpTbl HpOH3BOq5TCA 06 C'HTa1OUaerOCA HaH6ojiee 6eJiHbimI . OHH HCHOJnh3YEOT 3TOT KPHTepHU ARs H3y'eHHHA 3aaHHOro

31eKTHBHOCTH

HaH6ofIee

O)aHOMOMeHTHbiX

MaCTO

o6cneAoBaHHA,

paCCqHTaHHbIX

noKa3aTeJleH,

HCnOflb3yeMbEX

npH HKeHTH4rHKauHH

XpOHH'eCKH

ceMeH

6eRHbIX

6a3e

B TpeX

AepeBHAX B 3aCyll1JHBbIX CejibCKHX pa OHax A4H;jHH.

nepBoro ABTopaMH paCCMaTpHBaEOTCSA ,Ba nOKa3aTeisi XpOHHqeCKOr4 6eRHOCTH, B OCHOBe Cpe)aHHA B OCHOBe BToporo H3 KOTOPbIX JIe)KHT Cpe,AHH4 ,AOXOA 3a BOCbMHjieTHHH nepHojl, a neT onpegensAeTcs HaiHiiHMeM KOJiHqeCTBO (TaKoe nepHo, o6feM noTpe6JieHHAs 3a LeCTHneTHH14 paCC'IHTaTh no RaHHbiM MO)KHO aaHHbIX). HlccieAyloTcs uieCTb nOKa3aTeJier4, KOTOPbie yqeTa 3aTpaT Ha o,RHOMoMeHTHoro o6cneAoBaHHs: TeKyHlHri roxo, TeKyiaee noTpe6neHHe ( 6e3 noTpe6neHHe TOBapbl qRJHTeJbHOFO nOJb3OBaHHR1 H KyRbTOBO-o6pAaOBbIX paCXOaOB), TeKywee AOJIs TOBapOB, ripO,OBOJIbCTBeHHbIX noTpe6neHHe TeKyiuee 3TH CTaThH paCxO,OB), (BKnEoMasa rIO0ROBOJIbCTBeHHbIX TOBaPOB B noTpe6nieHHU H AOCTYn K 3eMjne. ABTOpbi npHXOAST K 3aKAJOteHHIO, '4TO OAHOMoMeHTHbMe

IHn

OXOAaMH MOrYT npaBHEIbHO BbIABJIATb

3P,HHb

npHMepHO

qOXOAOB HJ1H nOTpe6JIeHHA.

3a noTpe6neHHeM

Ha6nioaeHHsI

TPH xieTBepTH XpOHHIIeCKH 6eAHbIX C TO1CKH

OXjHaKO

3Ta CTaTHCTHKa

MO)KeT B

noKa3aTeYieH, 3Ha'qHTeJbHOA CTeneHH CKpblBaTL HH4HopMamH1o o6 34xeKTHBHoCTH pa3JIH4HbiX i,aeHTH4HKaLHerl Me)Kqy pa3ji4qHHS4 HHKaKoro rFJaBHbiM o6pa3oM, nOTOMy, 4TO OHa He jienaeT

caMbEx 6eAiHbix H MeHee 6eaHblx. 14fcoJnE3ys

CBOH H3JIIo6JIeHHbir rlOKa3aTeflb 341eKTHBHOCTH, OCHOBaHHbEH

Ha OnHCaHHOM

TeKyulee B Pa3,aene 2.5 ioKa3aTene P2 , 'IayHAXypH H PaBennboH o6HapywHBaloT, qTO KaK '-eM Bce noTpe6neHHe, TaK H TeKyiuiHe IOXOAbi o6blHO OKa3blBaiOTCA 6onee 39cjeKTHBHbIMH4,

AOXO,qaMH H 3aBHCHT OT TOrO, KaKOH HMeHHO TeKyLuHM noTpe6JieHHeM MeHee OqeBHAHO. Pe3ynbTaT oTiaCTH nyulme noAxoaHT ans nOKa3aTenJb XpOHHxeCKOH 6e,jHocTH Hcnojib3yeTCA1; TeKyLuee HoTpe6JIeHHe npoiHe nOKa3aTejiH

XpoHHmeCKOH 6eCHOCTH, XOTA paHwHpOBaHHHe Me)MY TeKyIIHMH

(npH BCex 6iogxeTax, BbIABJIeHHA XpOHHqCCKOI4 6eAHOCTH C TO4KH 3peHHSi cpeaHero noTpe6jIeHHB H)aeHTHq3HKauHH AnsI FOAHTCS 6o0iEle zoxoq TeKymUUH KaK KpoMe Majibix), B TO BPeMS ROXOAOB. XpOHH'qeCKoA 6eqHOcTH C TO4KH 3peHHq cpeaHUX

P1CyHKe

nOKa3aHO, KaK H3MeHXeTCS

XPOHHieCKaA 6eAHocTb

npH

Hcnonb3OBaHHH

H npui pa3ji4qHblx 6iojaeTax. HaHBbICuias TOqKa Ha BepTHKajibHoH oCH pa3JIH4HbIX noKa3aTeie Ha pHCYHKe COOTBeTCTByeT Haqa4bHOMY yPOBHiO 6eqHoCTH, a Ka)KIaAi TOqKa Ha npeacTasBjeHHOi4 106 B

3THX

YCJIOBHAsX

cyneHgaToe

anpecHoe

pacnpeaesieHHe

noMou4

qyBcTBHTejibHbIX K pacnpeneneHHro HOKa3aTeneH 6eRHOocTH, TaKHX KaK

P2 .

sBJIAeTCA

OnTHManJHEIM

XUxS

KpUBOU o6o3HaqaeT KOHeqHbliU YPOBeHb 6eAHocTH (no BepTHKaJIbHOI oCH), KOTOpbl[U Mo)KeT 6biTb aOCTHrHyT npH pacnpeLeneHH1 3aAaHHoro 6IoaweTa (no ropH3OHTanbHOri ocH) cornacHo COOTBeTCTByIOIUeMy 3TOUi KpHBOU CTaTH4eCKOMy noKa3aTeJilo, paCcLitiTaHHOMy na OCHOBe OAHOMOMeHTHbIX 4aHHbiX. TaKHM o6pa3oM, YeM HHXKe KpHBaS npH rno6oM 3aAaHHOM 6ioa*e-re, TeM 344eKTHBHee COKpaWeHHH 6eAHoCTH. Ha PHCYHKe 7 nOKa3aHbl pe3yjIbTaTbi Bo31aegCTBHA Ha

XpOHHIeCKyio

nOKa3aTejieA,

6e,4HOCTb,

a TaKioe

noJIy'IeHHbie B cny4ae pe3yilbTaTbi AnWS cJTytaeB

HcrloJIb3oBaHlR

rocy.AapCTBeHHOUi nOMOLUH (C TO'qHbIM 3anoJIHeHHeM

u14H

pa3JIHqHbIX

HAeajibHoro aapecHoro

CTaTHseCKHX

pacnpe;xeneHHA

BceX HHAHBH,YanbHblX ,ae¢Hu.HTOB zaoxoa

norpe6JneHHA CHH3Y AOBepxy), eaHHoo6pa3HbIX TpaHC(ePTOB (B paBHOM o6fteMe nA Ka=oro MeJIoBeKa) H npOHOPUHOHaBJbHbIX TpaHC¢epTOB (riOaH0MaioLulfX Bce o6beMbl noTpe6JieHHS Ha OAUH H TOT we ripoueHT).

Poverty level (FGT2xIOO)

.~~~e tS1bore-X .. e.

pr.ermis=

...

II, <

uestet

tveeet.

'S -,

Budget (as % of aggregate poverty gap)

PHCYHOKc 7. BJIUHNUHe Ha XpOHHqecKylo (ieAHOCTb aapeCHOR CTaTHqecKHX noKa3aTenieJV 6DnaroCoCTo5rHu%. Ha pUICyHKe 6enRHOCTI (oTo6pawKaemoi cpe,aHHm oftemom rioTpe6nieHHA nomuaroBoro a.peCHoro pacripe,aeieHHA nomoluH (CHH3Y Anx Tpex aRepeBeHb B HSHAHH. (1CTOYHUK:C Chaudhuri and

Bce

nomotUH npH noKa3aHbi

HCHnonb30BRHHH

Temnbi

pa3nuHqHbIX

CHH)KeHRA XPOHHyeCKOri

3a LulecTb neT) B cjiyqae,

Kor,aa B OCHOBe

BBepx) iie)KaT pawnumHbie cTaTHqeCKHe noKa3aTenuH

Ravallion, 1992.)

nOKa3aTeniH O6ENHO y6mmioaT raRe-HH6yAb B3 nlpome;KYTKe meXCAy pacnpeAenieHHem nomoWUi H nponOpLjHOHanbHblMti TpaHc4)epTamH. TeKylilee noTpe6nieHHe (6e3 yqeTa 3aTpaT Ha nptio6peTeHHe TOBaPOB ,AnHlTenbHoro nOinb3OBaHHA H KyRlbTOBO-o6pAA0BbIX pacXOAOB) B o6wem cnymae ABnAe-TCA HaHRyqLU;m noKa3aTeqem npH Bcex mgeaJlbHbIM

cTaTHqCCKtie a)jpeCHbIM

6To,D>e-rax BnJIOTb RO camblx

60JlbWHX, XOTA no 34oeKTHiBHOCTH o4eHb He3Ha-11TeJlEHO OT Hero OTCTaTOT TaKHe nlOKa3aTeJIH, Kax AoxoAbl U nlpOAOBOJlbCTBeHHoe nlOTpe6JIeHHe. CJIeZyeT TaM)e OTmeTHTb, qTo cpaBHeHHe 3AeCb llpoBoAHTc5 HcKiiioqUTeJlbHO C TOWKU 3peHURA CIIOCO6HOCTHi 3TUX

XpOHHqeCKH

H,geHTHUHLIHpOBaTb

noKa3aTeJIeH

noTpe6neHHe no-npexKHeMy

ABnAeTCA

HaHaYquIHM

noKa3aTenem

ITO

yTBepxKLaTb,

MOKHO

6e9HbEX.

TeKyuxee

6eqHOcTH no COCTOAHH1O

onpe,aeneHHyIo ,iaTyy. ABa

apyrHx

KOTOpbiC

noKa3aTeiqS,

TaK H B

HCIe)iROBaHHXX,

KaK B

HCHOJTb3OBaJIHcb

aOCTyn K 3eMjie H (oco6eHHo) aons 7). B CaMOM gene, 6bIno 6bl nyque

nOjiHTHKe, OKa3anIHCb ,OBOJTbHO He3c40eKTHBHbEMW: 3TO npO,OBORbCTBeHHbIX TOBapOB B nOTpe6neHHH (PHCYHOK

HeT) npOCTO aaTb K&WAOMY (He3aBHCHMO OT TOrO, HgeHTHLHUHpOBaH JIH OH KaK 6eRHblr4 HnH nOMOIIIH 13 O;UH H TOT wKe 06obeM nOMOWH, 'eM HCXOaXUTb nipH aapeCHOM pacrpeienieHHH MOrUH 6bl 6onee yAejibHOFO Beca npOaYKTOB HHTaHH4 B nOTpe6J1eHHH. qepe3 HeCKOjTEKO nIeT Bbl BMeCTO Toro qTo6Ei TOqHO BbISBHTb XPOHHqecKH 6eAHbEx Ha OCHOBC qHCTO cITyqaHHOrO Bbi6opa KaK aojSi

HcnOJIb3OBaTb TaKoH nOKa3aTeJib, iinytie

HCKJIIO'qHTb

aOMOXO3sqriCTBa

rlpOaOBOJIbCTBeHHbIX

noTpe6iieHHH!). 3To BBJIqSeTCSA oTpaKeHHeM TOrO 4DaKTa, 'TO epCBHAIX

npOZROBOJIbCTBeHHbIe TOBapbl B pacCMaTpHBaeMbIX

Ravallion, 1992).

BeCOM

y)lejibHbIM

HH3KHM

TOBapOB B nOTpe6JieHHH (ewe B

nHTaHHS

ITpOAYKTOB

wOXOgHaB 3J1aCTH4HOCTb cnpoca Ha 6iH3Ka K egHHHue (Chaudhuri and

HH3KaA 34xeKTHBHOCTb TaKOFo nOKa3aTeJIA, KaK

0ocTyn K 3eMjie, 3acTaBJISeT

B OCHOBe YCOMHHTbCA1 B 344eKTHBHOCTH pa3nHi4HbIx BHAOB agpecHoro pacnpeRenieHHs rOMOUH, RaaHHOrO esTeiie KOTOpOrO ieaXHT AOCTyn K 3eMJ1e, KOTOpbie 6binH nonysApHbl y riOjiHTH4eCKHX Cy6KOHTHHeHTa. Mbl BepHeMCS K paCCMOTpeHHiO 3TOFO Pe3ynbTaTbi 3KOHoMH'IeCKyio a

noKa3aTeJflxX,

HCCjieaOBaHUI.

)IaHHOrO

3)4XeKTHBHOCTb TaKwKe

Bonpoca

B Pa3aene

npOflHBa1OT

TaKwe

pacnpegej1eHHs,

axpecHoro

nOTeHIUHaJbHbIe

npemmywecTBa

3.7. CBeT

HeKOTOpbiri

OCHOBaHHOrO

CTaTHMeCK4X Ha6inogeHHH.

JIOHrHTbIO,HblIX

TeKywee riOTpe6nIeHHe HJIH TeKyLHue IoXoubi, aBTOpbi npHXOAZT K BbIBOgy, 'qTO OKa3biBaiOuYIO MO)KHO 6e3 Tpyaa B jBa pa3a CHH3HTb 3aTpaTbl Ha coLIHaJIbHyIo riOMolIb, 6 6e3 axapecHoro nolieceHbl bl 6EuJ KOTOPbEe 6eRHOCTb, ymepeHHoe BO3xfeHCTBme Ha XPOHHEICKyiO MeHee, gaawe He TeM TpaHC4epT). 3TOH nOMOLuH (T. e. B cnyqae eRHHOo6pa3HbIX l4cnO.rEb3ys

pacnpeeneHHAs

aBa pa3a Bbiuie no npH HcnOHb3OBaHHH JIOHrHTbIOXHbIX IaaHHbIX 3TH pacxogbi MOrJIH 6bITb B He oueHKH, ogHaKO, CpaBHeHHIO co cflymaeM HigeajibHoro aapecHoro pacnpefaejeHHA. 3TH auMHfH4cpaTHBHoe H qaHHbiX c6op Ha yqHTbIBaIoT pa3IHlMHA Mex)1y nOKa3aTeiSlMH no 3aTpaTaM TpaHCepepTaMH. TaKHe 3aTpaTbl CJieaOBaJio 6bi paCCMOTpCTb npe K e, meM genaTb Te ynpaBlleiHe HuH

HHbHe

nOJTHTHMeCKHe

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WHpOKOi'O

ripMHeHeHHS

HH)jeKCOB

nlOCpeACTBOM rny6HHbi 6eqHOCTH B KaqeCTBe nOKa3aTenieH 3aTpaT Ha JRHKBHLauHIO 6eAHOCTH Kora Mbl cHTyaUH4I, rIOJIHTHqeCKOrO BMeIlaTenJbCTBa npeiCTaBJiCeTCs COMHUTeCIbHOH B 06bl'HOi Ae4HUIT BblHyKACeHbi OrpaHm4HTbCS HcnOJIb3OBaHmeM OAHOMOMeHTHbIX )jaHHbIX. TeKywuHi 3aTpaT. 3THX HegOoUeHKe xaoxoaa (nOTpe6nieHHA) MO)KeT n1pUBeCTH K 3HaqHTejibHOr4

3.3

Kaofi pezuoH uwiu cexmop xapaKmepu3yemcR 6ouiee 6blCOKOU 6eOHOCmblO? BaHblIH mar B npHKJIaXHoM aHaJIH3e Hnp 1OCKOjibKy OH 'aCTO ABJIAeTCSA HenoCpeaCTBeHHblM 1CTOMHHKOM 4HH4OpMaUHH o6cyx<geHHAx. B HaCTOqmeM pa3gjene BHa'qajie HCCJie yOTCS npo6neMbl,

rony'IeHHe AocToBepHoro npo(Hnsi 6e2IHOCTH 6egHoCTH,

nom4TRmecKCKx

TrpaHHL 6ejHOCTH4,uisI pa3jH'qHbIx ceKTopOB npo4uuHi

npHcywHe o6bIqHoMy MeTODy onpeaeneHie 6e.aHOCTH.

3aTeM

perHoHanJbHoro

npHBOSATCA CeKTOpHOrO.

npHMepbi

06a

OHH

aByX

aeTajlH3HPOBaHHbIX

6yayT

o6cyxmeH44.

TaKxe

6exHocTu

npo4Hnere

HCn1OJEb3OBaTbCSA

faalbHerDweM

FpaHu4bl 6e6nocmu &}LW

OOPO&CKOOO U Ce,JbCKO,-O

Hace}zeHUR 6 gHoONe3Uu

roIOxAo0, OCHoBaHHbIH Ha 6a3OBbix norpe6HOcTqx (Pa3,aeni 2.4), qSBjieTCq HaH6oj0ee nOnYJ1SPHbIM MeTOAOM YCTaHOBJ1eHIA qepTb 6egHocTH B pa3BHBOaowHxcA cTpaHax. B Pa3,aene 2.4 OTMemaiiaCb Heo6xoAHMOCTb co6rnogeHHs OCTOPO)KHOCTH 7puH IHC1OJlb3oBaHHH AaHHOrO noIxoAa

npH nOCTpOeHHH

npo( uieH

6CaHocTH.

CooTBeTCTByLLoHri

npHMep 6yReT npeacTaBineH

HaCTOAiHeM pa3Aejie. 1{eHTpaBJbHoe CTaTHCTHqeCKoe HCrIOJIb3yeT ,JIA onpeAeReHHA rpaHHu

6 lopo

1IHAoHe3HH (Biro Pusat Statistik HJIH BPS) 6eAHOCTH o0,Hy H3 pa3HOB4,HOCTeri "MeToga nHi1eBOH

(Pa3gen 2.4). BHaqarre eCeCTKO yCTaHaBJIHBaeTCA HOpMaTHBHaS menOBeKa B nH4UeBO 3HeprHH B KajiOpHAX, a 3aTeM onpeaensAocIO

3HeprHH

noTpe6HOcTb noTpe6neHHe,

MHHHMajibHaA

pacxorIbI Ha 3Ta nOTpe6HOCTb o6bIqHO yaOBJICTBOpAeTCA tieJOBCKOM. 3aTeM nIORCMHTbIBaeTCA qHCiO JioaeeH, paCxOgbl KOTOpblX He aOCTHraiOT 3TOFO ypOBHM. TaKHM o6pa3oM, OLueHHBaeTCS KojuIH'eCTBO JioJjeH, ibH CyMMapHbie noTpe6HTeiIbcKHe paCXOgbE HegOCTaTO4HbE ansi YJOBnieTBopeHHA MHHHMaTIbHOH iioTpe6HOCTH B iHiiieBOH 3HeprHH, C ypiemom npeeam4pypouero COOTHOIIIuHHA MewKy noTpe6IeHHeM nHHCeBOH 3Hepr4H H CyMMapHbiM nOTpe6jleHHeM cpeqH HacenCeHHS. FiJaHHblIH MmeTo npHMeHAeTCq pa3genlbHO K KaBx(oMy CeKTOpy (ropo,RcKoe/cejbcKoe HaceIieHHe) H KaAOri xaTe. MeTog BPS (HuH ero pa3HOBHAHOCT4) HCIOJIb3OBaJCSi B npH

KOTOpbIX

HCCjie,aOBaHIAX 6ejRHocTH H B

upyrHx

KOHe'IHO, XOTeJ]OCb 6bl, OTB)KJaIH

pa3Jn1HtuST

CTpaHaX H He ABJSeTCA yHHKaJIbHbIM.

qTo6bw HCnOJb3yeMbie

B CTOHMOCTH

AKH3HH

Mex)Ky

rpaHHLIbi 6eCHocTH HaewKaluHM o6pa3oM CpaBHHBaeMbiMH

ceKTOpaMH

HnUH ,TaTaMH.

O0HaKO, KaK OTMeteHO B Pa3gene 2.4, MeTOq HIWeBOi 3HmeprH o6biqHO He o6ecneqHBaeT B03MO)KHOCTH HcnOJIb3OBaHHS e,aHHOH xepTbl 6e,TiHOcTH AAAS BCeX cpaBHHBaeMblX CeKTOpOB/,AaT. rIpH-iHHa 3TOnO KpOeTC2 B TOM, qTO COOTHOUIeHHe MeX)Ky noTpe6neHmeM 4UweBOHA 3HeprHH U 061uHM noTpe6neHHeM HnIH aoXo)laMH HeOgHHaKOBO AAA pa3jiH'IHbIX CeKTOpOB/2aT (B CHAY CyLUeCTBYIOLUHX couHajmbHo-uqeMorpa4HtqecKHx H COUHO-KyflbTypHblx pa3IqmH). 14 HHqTO B ,aaHHOH

MeTO)IHKe He

rapaHTHpyeTp eieBaHTHOCTH

3THX

pa3JIHqHH AAA cpaBHHTenJbHbIX oueHOK

a6COjnOTHOA 6eAHocTH.

HIcnOJb3yeMas BPS KOHKpeTHaS pa3iiHqiSI BHAU4MOMy,

xepTe

6e,4HoCTH

HaMHoro

BpeMeHH 3TH pa3JIH4HS4

pa3HOBHaHOCTb MeToJAa nIuieBOu 3HeprHH reHepupyeT Me)Ky rOpOaCKHMH H CenJbCK4MH paHOHaMl4, KOTOpbIe, no-

npeBbHlhalOT

pa3HU'IY B CTOHMOCTH )KH3HH. KpoMe Toro, C TeleHHeM CKJIOHHbl npeBbIlUaTb TeMnlbi HH4JJISIIHH. KaK 3T0 06bEVHO HMeeT MeCTO B

pa3BHBatOURHXCS

CTpaHaX, COOTHOWCHHHe MewLIay' OTpe6neHHeM nIILUeBoH 3HeprHH H CyMMapHblIMH paCXOgaMH B ropoAax H B CeJAECKHX paUiOHax O'eHb CHjIbHO pa3nHtIaeTCI: lpH jn1o6OM 3aaaHHOM YPOBHe paCXOoaOB Ha noTpe6JIeHHe B CenjbCKHX paHoHax KOJIHqeCTBO noTpe6n.qeMbIx KanOpiHA Bbuie, qeM B ropoaax. F3blTb MO)KeT, 3TO lIpOCTO oTpa)KaeT CJIO)KHBUIYfOCS cpeaH HacenieHHS 6onee 6oraTblx paHOHOB TeHaeHLLU4O noKynaTb 6onee gxoporHe HpO,RYKTbl nHTaHHA. 3To MO)KeT TaKwKe OTpa>KaTb TOT 4aKT, 'TO CeJnbCKOX03ArUCTBeHHbEIr TpyA o6blMHO Tpe6yeT OT tenoBeKa 6OnRbmero 4H3itqeCKoro HanpADKeHHA, HeM 6onbul4HcTBO BH,AOB ropOACKOi ACATeJbHOCTH, MTO BneT 3a co6o0 6onee BbICOKHe nOTpe6HOCTH CefSlH B nlHueBOH 3HeprHH, HeO6xoUoHMoH ,JIA noagepxKcaHHA HeH3MeHHOH Maccl Tenia 'lenoBeKa1 0 7 . Pa3JiH'HA B OTHOCHTeJIbHbIx ueHax (B CeJibCKHX paiOHax npOayKTbi nHTaHHA ueueBie, 4CM B ropoaax) H BKYCaX TaKwoe MOryT HMeTb 6oibwIoe 3HaqeH4e. [JO TeM Ke CaMbliM fpH4HHaM COOTHOwUeHHe Mex<gy noTpe6neHHeM KaJIopH H ,HqoxoJaaMH HniH o61UHM nOTpe6jIeHHeM, CyAs no BCeMy, TaKiKe 107 CM., HanpHMep, OneHKH nOTpe6HocTeH B KajIOpHqX ARS

WHO (1985). 73

JioJeri

pa3nHqHELx

npoljeccHrl, npeacTaBjieHHLIe B

c TeqeHHeM BpeMeHH: noTpe6ne1itie nHWeeBOu 3HIeprtm lmeeT cMeLuaeTcS nporpeccHBHo CHH)KaTbCS1 npu rno6oM 3aAaHHOM YpOBHe pean6bHbIX pacxoAoB.

TeHAeHLUEiO

100 Cumulative percent of persons

rural

90 80 -

70 -u 60

30 -

30-

BPS urban pov.line

BPS rura pov.lin

55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Consumption per person, thousand Rupiah per month

HaceneHHs HHAoHe3HH. (1987 KyMiyJnTHBHbe qaCTOTHbie pacnpexleJieHHA noxaymeBoro HOMHHajibHOrO noTpe6JieHHR B 4HxaOHe3HH OCHOBe Ha r.) Ann Bcex ropoacKHx H CeJIbCKHX paHoHoB. (I4CTOtIHHK: pacqeTbi aBTOpa, BbInOJIHeHHble JaHHbIX SUSENAS 3a 1987 r.)

8. CpaBHeHHe 6eRHOCTH cpeAH ropo=CKoro H cen.bcKoro

PUCYHOK

Pa:31qe Mextzy rOpO,jCKHMH H CejibCKKHm par4OHaMH HHAOHe3HH no COOTHOweHHIO Mei.y noTpe6neMHeM muWeBOR 3HepImi H aoxoaaMH HacTojibKO BeJI4KO, qTo npuH no6oM 3aAaHHOM YPOBHe noTpe6HOCTH B nHIleBoi 3Hepriui qepTa 6eaHOCTH B ropoae HacTOJIbKO npeBbElwaeT qepTy 6eAHOCTH B cej1bCKOA MeCTHOCTH4, qTO 3TOrO AocTaToMHo, 4TO6bi 3TO MoKeT Ha npOT4Bonono)KHblA paHwtiKpa oueHOqHbIx HHaeKCOB noBjieqb 3a co6o0u H3MHeHie 8, 'qHCjieHHOCTH 6eaHbEx Me)K!y 3THMH ABYMS ceKTopaMH. 3To npOHniiioCTpHpOBaHO Ha PHCYHKe B rge npeacTaBnieHo KYMYJInTHBHoe pacnpeaeeneHHe HoMHHaJIbHOro noAymeBoro nOTpe6jieHHSI

BPS qepTe Ka*cAoM H3 ropoAcKHx H cejibCKHx paHOHOB HHAOHe3HH B 1987 r. rIPH YCTaHOBjieHHoH MeCAU (no B qejioBeKa 6eAHOCTH ARS cenbcKHx paHOHOB Ha YPOBHe 10.294 py1l1lH Ha OAHOrO oTHeCTH K COCTOAHHIO Ha 1987 r.) nonymaeTcA, To npHMepHO 18% ceiibcKoro HaceneHHS4 cneiayeT [IPH YCTaHOBjieHHOUi BPS 'iepTe 6exHOCTH USI rOpO;XCKHX par4OHOB Ha YPOBHe 17.381 6eArHbIM.

pynHri Ha OiHoro HejioBeKa B MeCSAL o6Hapy>KHBaeTcs, qTO 20% ropoaCKOro HaCeeHiHHA 6eAHbI. Ans o6o0x 3aMe-rTM, O;XHaKo, 'TO npH rnEo6oi 3aAaHHOA qepTe 6e,HOCcTH (KeCTKO yCTaHOBIeHHOi 6exHb1x B cenJbCKOM HaceneHIHu 6beue, meM aonsi 6eAHbIx B rOpOACKOM ceKTopoB) jonsi HacenIeHHH. 14 3TO CnpaBejiHBO npH mno6o0u qep-re 6e4HocTH.

flOKa3aHHb1e Ha PHCyHKe 8 pacnpe.aejeHHs He CKOPPeKTHPOBaHbl C yqeTOM pa3wHII4i4 B CTOHMOCTH )KIH3HH. B Ta6Tntue 5 nperACTaBneHbl aBTOPCKHe OueHKH KPHTHmeCKOH pa3HHUbI B rpaHHi*ax 6e)IoCT4, OCHOBaHHbie Ha aaHHbIX SUSENAS o pacnpeaeneHHH no 6eAHoCTH noAyweBoro norpe6neHHA B 1984 H 1987 rr, npHi KOTOPbIX paH)KHpOBaHHe CeKTOpOB ORHaKo

cMeHAeTCA Ha o6paTHoe,. TaKHM o6pa3oM, eCJIH B3AETb

1987 r., Ao Tex nop nOKa mepTa 6eRHOCTH IsA rOpOACKH4X paHOHOB npeBbIuiaeT 'epTy 6eaHocTH AnIA CebTECKHX paiHOHOB He 6onee HeM Ha 60%, HHAeKC xHHc.jeHHocTH 6eAHbix 6yaeT BbHLhe B CeJIbCKHX paHOHax. Ho npiu pa3HHUe B 70% pe3yJEbTaT 6y,jeT npOTHBOnOJIO)KHbIM.

Ta6rniua 5.

KpHTHqecKne pa3JTHqH5I B CTOUMOCTU WH3HH, npH KOTOPbIX paHXKPOBaHue noKa3aTeJlefi 6egnOCTH MemLy FOpOACKHM H cenj1bCKIM ceKTopaMH HHIHOHe3HH CMeH1eTCl o6paTHbIM

KpHTKliecKaS pa3HHua B CTO4MOCTH )KH3HH, fnPlKOTOpOU COOTHOuieHHe noKa3aTeJieru MeHAeTCS Ha o6paTHoe

1984 a

19872.

71 (F) 71(C)

62 (F) 60 (C)

(ropomce.no, %)'

Pa3HHUa B 4epTax 6eaHOCTH BPS (ropoi/ceno, %)

* HlpHMeqaHi4e: (F) 03HaqaeT, WTO 3a fiHHHio oTcqeTa 6bira B3AfTa epTa 6eAHOCTH TAn ropOAcK4X pairoHOB, a (C) - qepTa 6eAHocTH TAucenJbCKHX pafloHoB. HCTOqHHK: paceCTbi aBTopa, BbIrloJIHeHHbie Ha OCHOBe

,aHHWX SUSENAS.

K co)KaTieHHIo, a6coJnoTHo YAOBfleTBopHTenibHOrO HHaeKCa UJIA npocTpaHCTBeHHbIX CpaBHHTenJbHbIX OueHOK CTOHMOCTH )KH3HH B HH,4OHe3HH He cyuAecTByeT. OAHaKo, cygA no TOMy,

HTO HaM H3BeCTHO 0 pa3HHEue

ueHax Me)C4y rOpOgCKHMH H ceJTbCKHMH paHoHaMH, CTOJIb (70%) BblF.RJIAAT BecbMa HenpaBaOnogo6HbiMH. B ropogax jeHbI Ha pHC o6bI6IHHO npHMepHO Ha 10% BbIEle, tieM B cejibcKHx paHoHax, a B Jfi aKapTe OHH MOrYT Ha uejibix 20% ripeBbilUaTb COOTBeTCTBYIOIUHe UeHbl B ceJ]bCKHx paHOHax OCTPOBa 6onbLuHe pa3j1H4HA

B CTOHMOCTH )KH3HH

ABa. XKHIHJIHbIe 3aTpaTbi,

omeBH4HO, HaMHOrO

Bbiile B ropogax, XOTM 3Ta pa3HHUa oTxiacTH )KHJTbA. PaBeninToH H BaH ae Baniie (Ravallion and van de Walle, 1991a) oueHHJIH nOBegeHLiecKHr4 HHfleKc CTOHMOCTH )KH3HH nSA AIBbl, HcroJTE3yM MoAenjb cnpoca, nocTpoeHHWyo Ha OCHOBe AaHHbIX 3a 1981 r. C y4eTOM pa3jTH4HH B CTOHMOCTH )KHRI6A (nocnie y KOppeKTHPOBKH 3THX pa3niHiHHH C yqeTOM pa3J1H'IHri B Ka'eCTBe iKHAbA) H ABJIAeTCA

pa3jiH4HH

oTpaBKeHHeM pa3nIH4HH B Ka'ecTBe

B ueHax Ha pHC. ARA 6eRHbIx pa3HHUa B 3Ha'eHHS4X oLeHO'Horo HHReKca CTOHMOCTH

HKH3HH Mexc)y FOpOACKHMH H ceniEcKHMH paHoHaMH COCTaBHjia npHMepHO 10%, TorRa KaK Mex)Ky AwaKapToii H cenjTCKHMH paiOHaMH OHa HeMHOro npeBbIcHna 20%. BmaHi H PaBeJTibOH (Bidani and

Ravallion,

BKRHOMaIolHHX

1992) onpegerIAnoT HHgeKC ueH JlacneHipeca AJIA npOaYKTOB nHTaHHM, ce6M CBblleC 30 HaHMeHOBaHHI4 TOBapOB, H HaXOaAT, HTO ropOaCKHe ieHbl

npHMepHO Ha 12% npeBbliiaioT CeCJbCKHe. KpoMe Toro, HCXO4AM H3 pC3yJTETaTOB cny'arHbIX Ha6J1ogeHHR, MO)KHO npegnOfiOXKHTh, 'TO CyweCTBYIOT TaKHC HpOMbIUIIeiHHbie TOBapbI, LjeHbl Ha KOTOpbie B ropoaax 4aKTHmIeCKH HH)Ke, 'eM B Cej]bCKOH MeCTHOCTH. HecMOTpA Ha TO, 'TO HMe1OlUHeCAI

aaHHbie BCe-TaKH HenjT3I

Ha3BaTE. noJIHEIMH,

HaH6onIee rpaBOnOrOo6HbIH

BEIBOA

3aKJflO'IaeTCA B TOM, 'ITO TpH BePOATHOM pa3JHqHH B CTOHMOCTH HKH3HH MeX)fAy FOpOACKHMH H cejibCKHMH parloHaMH pacipocTpaHeHiocTb 6egHOCTH B 14HJOHe3HH B CenjbCKHX paAoHaX BEbIue, 'IeM B FOPOaCIHX. Mexoy TeM, nppi onpejeaenHHbIx yCJIOBHAx, pe3yJIETaTbi pacqeTa 'epT 6eAHocTH

MeTOmy

n1HiUeBOH

3HeprHH

2aIoT OCHOBaHHe

3aKnio'IeHHA.

AJIA

npAMO

1POTHBOIIOJIO)KHOrO

9TH npo6neMbl MoryT cTaTb BecbMa cepbe3HbIMH , eciiH fIPH PaCCMOTpeHHH npo4PHfleH

6exAHocTH Mex)Iy paCCMaTpHBaeMbIMH rpynriamH CyWeCTByeT Mo6HEbHOcTb. HanpHMep, B cmnyqae H3 CeIibCKHX paHOHOB B ropojia. flpegnOJIO)KHM,

MHrpaLIHH HaceJieHHS

MTO 0IHH H3 XHTeReH

cembcKoro ceKTopa, HaxOaqiiHriHCA JIHIUb qyTb Bblliue qepTbi 6eHocTH, nepee3wKaeT B FOPOaCKOU ceKTOp H noriyaeT TaM pa6oTy, npHHOCALlyEO emy AOnOflHHTeflbHbl peaMbHblg AoXoj, MeHblUHH B 1qem pa3HHua B qepTax 6egHOCTH Me)Ay qBYMSA ceKTOpaMH. XOTS 3TOT qejiOBeK BblHrpblBaeT

nniaHe

MaTepHaBJTHOM

TOLIKH

JIuX o6oHx

6eaHoCTH

nOKa3aTeJIb

COBOKynHbiH

HCnOJInb3yeMoro

3peHHS

CeKTOpOB

nOKa)KeT

ypOBHR,

)KH3HeHHoro

nOKa3aTeJnI3

yBeIIHqeHHe

6exHocTH,

B CaMOM nOCKOJTbKy MHrpaHT Tenepb 6yAeT CIHTaTbCS 6eAHbIM, KKHByUHM B rOPO0,CKOM ceKTOpe. nOCpeaCTBOM gene, BnOJIHe B03MO)KHO, xiTO npoiuecc 3KOHOMHqeCKOrO pa3BHTHq, npOTeKaIolHU

pacuuHpeHHM ropogcKoro ceKTopa, npH KOTOpOM MaTepHanbHoe noJIo)KeHHe HH O,Horo H3 6eRHHbIX fipil He yxygu1aeTcs, a y HeKOTOPbIX H3 HHX aaKe yjiyqIwaeTc3i, ripHBeaeT K npupocmy 6eIHOCTH. B BceH BepOsTHOHi BaBKHocTH pacUwHpeHHS4 ropORcKoro ceKTopa ins 6yRyWero pa3BHTH3 6eAHocTH K oi0un6014HbIM BbIBORaM npu T4HgOHe3HH 3TOT npouecc Mor 6bl npHBeCTH 4ccneqoRaTeneji

HCnO1Ob3OBaHHH nOKa3aTeieU 6eaHocTH BPS.

H7puMepbl 6o0ee bemaIzbHblX ceKmopubix u pe.UOHWZbHbLx npowuneii 6e6HoCmu B

Ta6nHLxe

ripeaCTasBjeH

npHMep

npOuHJIA 6eaHOCTH,

B KOTOPOM

BKTIIOe'iHHbie

Ha 10 Bbi6opKy o6cnegoBaHHs SUSENAS 3a 1987 r. AOMOXO3sArCTBa B 14HaOHe3H4, pa36HTbE rpynn no HX OCHOBHOMY HCTO'qHHKY xIoxoga. 31To CBOaKa pe3yflbTaTOB 6o0iee aeTajlbHoro 6e,iHOCTH, rpeCTaBneHHOrO B pa6oTe Huppi and Ravallion (1991). ceKTOPHOrO npOduOsH Pa3genie 2.5. flpHBeaeHbi pe3ylEbTaTbi InsABCeX Tpex noKa3aTeleu 6eaHOCT4, o6cy)naBLu4xcs B Heo6xogHMo oTMmTeTb cjiegytoiwUe MOMeHTbl:

i) rlpegnojaraTOCb, wITO pa3HH1Aa Me)Kgy ropoaoM H gepeBHeg B CTOHMOCTU ?K43HH cocTaBJISeT 10 ripoLeHTOB. ECJIH CyaHTb rio pe3yJIbTaTaM elHHCTBeHHOH BblHOJiHeHHOH 3MnrHpHqeCKOH pa6oTbl, 3TO npegnono.KeHHe BbirJIASUT BnOJIHe pe3OHHbIM (Ravallion and van de Walle,

1991;

Bidani

and

npe,noniaranOCb B IpyrfHx

Ravallion,

1992),

XOTS

3Ta

pa3HHua

HaMHoro

MeHbUwe,

' eM

npobHjiAX 6egiHOcTH AJnIJ 14HROHe3HH, o6cymaBnuuxcs1 BbIllIe.

6eAHOcTH OCHOBbIBalOTCA Ha oL"eHKax pacnpegeHHA HaceiieHHA npul npH KOTOpBIX paH)KHpOBaHHH no o6beMy ceme Horo noTpe6JieHHs B pacqeTe Ha ORHOeO IeiOBeKa, 06o,eM Ka=Kbir qmIeH gaHHOA KoHKpeTHoH ceMbH npeinoioKKTenbHO 1MeeT oqHH 14 TOT ice ceMbH KaAIori aJIA cneLLUH4wHbIe 1HIORb3OBanJcb noTpe6neHHlA. [IpH olxeHKe pacnpegeneHHA ii) fIOKa3aTenH

Ko344HuHeHTb1 Bbi6opKH. rpynnbl iii) [IpH 4)OpMHpOBaHHH npouInsA 6eaHOcTH AOMOXO3,drcTBa 6brnH pa361ITbl Ha 6onee UMCIOT CeMbH MHOrHe HCXOAA H3 yKa3aHHoro HMH "OCHOBHOFO HCTOIIHHKa aOXOaOB". 6 B noarpynnbi bl C4OpMHpOBaTb o0HOrO HCToqHHKa AOXOAOB. B 1pHHLtH1ne MOoKHO 6b10o COOTBeTCTBHH

AOXOAOB,

pa3JIH'qHbIMH

B3aHMoae4CcTB14sMHrnepBHiHoro

3TO cpa3y npsBejio

6bl

K H3J1HLUHeg

BTOp4'qHbIX

FPOMO3XRKOCTH

npofHunA

HCTO'iHHKOB

6e.rHocTH.

HCTO'IHHKOB AjBTepHaTHBHbIM roaxoAoM qBnsIeTCq pacqeT cpegHHx ROXOJJOB OT pa3jIW-iHbIX

,I13n

"cBepx6e;jHbIx", "6eaHbIx", "notTH 6eUHbIX" H

pa3JIHx4Hb1x rpynn no nOTpe6JIeHHIo (HanpHMep-

"gnpoqHx"); CM., HanpUMep, Huppi and Ravallion (1991). iv)

Bce TpH nOKa3aTeiSi

aaIOT BecbMa 6jiH3KKHA pe3ylbTaT npul paH)KHPOBaHHH CeKTOpOB

npouIeHT nepepaH)KHpOBaHHS Lpe3BblqaHHO HU30K. K npHmepy, o6e KaK 6eRHerimue no BCeM TpeMS noKa3aTeislM. ceRbCKOXO3S1HcTBeHHbie rioarpyrilfbl onpeaensnoAcsi no YPOBH1o 6eXHocTH,

B Ta6iniue 7 npeaCTaBJIeH npHMep perHOHajibHoro Te

xce

TpH noKa3aTensi

npo4¢HIUI

6egHocTH. [IpHBeaeHbI Bce

6e,4HOCTH ,IuA I lTaTOB HI4HIHH Ha OCHOBe pe3yflbTaToB HaTjHOHaAbHOrO

BbI6opoMHoro o6c1e)goBaHHx (NSS) 1983 r. KoMMeHTapHH K

Ta6niue 7:

i) 14CIOJIb3oBaHHaA MeTOHKa aHajiOrHm4Ha TOU, qTO npHMeHAJiaCb npH nocTpOeHHH onHcaHHOro Bbllue npO4¢HJIA 6eaHocTH ARA J1IHHaOHe3HH. flpeacTaBJIeHbI pacnpe,ej1eHHA mooeri no o6,beMy qymueBoro noTpe6JieHHA B 9OMOX03SiCTBax. Inn Kaxcgoro mUTaTa pacnpeaeneHme CTPOHJIOCb Ha OCHOBe COOTBeTCTBYIOI1IHX FOpOaCKHX H CeJIbCKHX pacnpegeneHHFI C rlonpaBKOi Ha pa3JIHqIHs B CTOHMOCTH AKH3HH MexKRy rOpOACKHM H CeJIbCKHM HaceCieHHeM H MeKAy pa3J1H4HbIMH UTaTaMH B COOTBeTCTBHH c o6cyxmeHHeM,

HpHBe,aeHHbIM B pa6oTe

Datt and Ravallion (1 992a).

ii) rlpeRcTaBJleHbl pe3yJbTaTbl aJfA ,aBYX rpaHHLi 6eCHocTH, IUHPOKO Hcnojnb3yeMbIX B JIHTepaType, nOCBsAuI>eHHOii Hcciie,OBaHHto 6e,HOCTH B I4H,14H (Datt and Ravallion, 1992a). iii) 3xaecb TaK7e o6HapyXuMBaeTcs TecHas coriiacoBaHHOCTb paHX4HpOBaHHJI HITaTOB npH HCHOJlb3OBaHHH BceX Tpex nOKa3aTeJIeH 6eaHOCTH H o6eiHx qepT 6eUHocTH. HanpHMep, OaHHH H Te we qeTbipe uiTaTa - BHxap, OpHcca, 3anagHasi BeHraJniH H TaMHJIHaa - BOWJJIH B nepByiO qeTBepKy CaMb1X 6eqjHbIX IIJTaTOB no BCeM TpeM nOKa3aTenJ1M 6eaHocTH H npH o6eHx qepTax 6eRHoCT4.

Ta6J]nHa 6. CeKTopHbu iinpo4pnTi6 6egRnocTH ,JIl IIHHAOe3HH

OCHOBHOH4 CeKTOP 3aHSTOCTH

rloKa3aTeJIb ruy6iHbl

gJIoA Hacen1eHH3

(1987 r.)

4HH4eKC

4HCneHHOCTH 6eAHbIx (H, %)

1987 r.

6eCHOCTH

P2 rniacca DocTepa-rpHpa-

IlOKa3aTeJlb

TopH6eKa (x 100)

(PG, %) CeamcKoe

XO3hHCTBO

(caMocT.

3aHATocTB)

(HaeMHmizt pa6oMHrh)

41,1

31,1

6,42

1,97

8,6

38,1

7,62

2,21

rlpoMblllueHHOCT

(ropoJI)

3,0

8,1

1,26

0,32

(cenio)

3,4

19,4

3,00

0,76

4,3

17,4

2,92

0,80

CTpoHTeCjbcTBo

ToproBsA

(ropoa)

6,3

5,0

0,71

0,17

(ceuio)

7,6

14,7

2,42

0,61

TpaHcnopT

4,1

10,7

1,53

0,34

YcJlyrH

(ropoJI)

7,6

4,2

0,61

0,14

(cenIo)

7,3

11,6

1,84

0,49

6,7

17,1

3,55

1,03

100,0

21,7

4,22

1,24

ApyrIe ceKTopa Bcero HCTOMHHK:

Huppi and Ravallion (1991).

Ta6anna 7. PerboHaabHbili lIpO4bHIb 6eAHOCTH AJu HIHAUH

(1983 r.) BepxHsq ,epTa 6eaHocTH

HepTa 6eRHocTH 3iAn,u

(77

pyrlHr1 Ha leji. B

Mec.)

(89 pynulH

eien. B

Mec.)

mITaT

HoKa3amewb

6ednocmu:

AHixpa-lIpajemi

20,50

4,34

1,43

30,44

7,27

2,56

AccaM

25,82

4,23

1,07

41,58

8,32

2,41

EiHxap

47,98

12,71

4,62

60,76

18,52

7,48

FyjwapaT

29,31

5,55

1,55

43,04

9,81

3,13

XapbsnHa

12,89

2,26

0,65

21,69

4,33

1,32

XHmaqaxa-rlpaAeui

17,36

2,81

0,72

28,85

5,62

1,62

9,73

1,32

0,29

19,56

3,14

0,78

KapHaTaKa

34,81

9,31

3,47

45,11

13,57

5,54

Kepana

27,87

6,18

2,01

38,82

9,96

3,58

MaAib6-rlpaAeiu

30,44

6,81

2,17

41,78

10,88

3,90

Maxapaiurpa

35,69

9,18

3,28

46,65

13,62

5,38

MaHHilyp

17,39

3,04

1,19

30,93

5,94

2,02

MerxariaA

29,59

8,30

3,19

38,44

11,87

4,98

OpHcca

42,69

11,50

4,41

55,16

16,71

6,93

IIeHaiKa6

11,62

2,09

0,60

19,35

3,94

1,21

PaJiKacTxaH

24,06

5,51

1,86

33,58

8,75

3,22

TaMHnHaj

40,74

11,59

4,63

51,63

16,41

7,06

TpHnypa

23,06

4,33

1,24

35,01

7,76

2,47

YTrap-flpaAeui

30,15

6,85

2,25

41,48

10,88

3,96

3anaAHa3iEeHraniHi

43,31

13,04

5,51

54,37

18,02

8,11

Bcero

32,65

8,09

2,90

43,90

12,29

J)]KaMMy H KauLiMHp

lIpm4Me'aHHe: Bce nOKa3aTeCiH

3.4

BaBKHO

6eAHOCTH BbIpa)KeHbI B npoiAeHTax. HCTOqHHK:

4,79

Datt and Ravallion (1992a).

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nporpecce rp4BO,44TCS

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paCXO,OB,

npH

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paHOHOB.

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qeTblpe

1981/82

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1985/86

rr.) CHH3HJICSI C

71% rgo 36%, 4TO

npe,ano.jaraeT yMeHbieleHHe o6axero HHcna 6eH]Hb1x C 67 qo 51 MJIH. qell. ECnH BepHTb 3THM UH4wpaM, TO 344eKTHBHOCTb nOJIHTHKH no 6opb6e c 6eHOCTbmo flOHCTHHe BleqaTJIseT.

PAA B03MO)KHbiX npo6IieM, CBS3aHHbIX CO CpaBHeHHeM o6CJIeaOBaHHii CeMeHHbiX paCxOaOB C TeqeHHeM BpeMeHH. 3TO pa3THqiHR B pa3mepax Bbi6opKH; eCJTH B 1981/82 rr. OCP 6buiio OXBaqMHO npHMCPHO 9.500 ceMeii, TO B 1985/86 rr. 3Ta uiH4pa coKpaTllIacb go 3.800 ceMeH. O;xHaKO MeHbuIaS BbI6OpKa He o6A3aTenbHO ABnSIeTCS MeHee eaOCTOBePHOI (Pa3eien 2.2). Bonee cepbe3HyiO TpeBOry Bbl3blBaeT TOT (jaKT, qTo HMeJiH MeCTO HeKOTOpbie H3MeHHHSH B HCnOJIb3yeMOg aHKeTe, CKa3aBuiHecq Ha OLeHKe O,AHaKO CKCHTHKaMH yKa3aHO Ha

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nocnejRHero o6CneJROBaHHs

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OCP, TeMn pocTa peanbHoro riogyleBOro noTpe6iieHHq, BbiTeKa1OL1UHr H3 pe3yJEbTaTOB nepHoAa, B TO COCTaBJIReT 10% B rO,4 Ha npoTSDKeHHH Bcero paccmaTpHBaemoro qeTblpexneTHero pOCTe - Ha MeCAfeHHOM 6onee ropa3vao o BpeMA KaK HaiLHOHanbHbie CBO KH CBHAeTeCJEbCTBYIOT Mo)KeT He He pOCTa YpOBHe npHMepHO 0,5% B ro,. TaKoe 6oibminoe pacXoxAeHHm B TeMnax 3aBbiUleHHA nOBOJy no HapCKaHHS IOaTBepxQaeT 3To 6ecnoKoricTBa. BbI3blBaTb

nepHog. CpaBHHTJe1bHbIMH OL\eHKaMH OCP TeMnOB pocTa noTpe6neHHs 3a yKa3aHHbilH KaK 3Ta BePOqTHaS

nepeoueHKa

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TeMnOB

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pocTa peanbHoro

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AAliA OTBCTa Ha 3TOT BOlpOC A npOH3BeCI

143

KOTOpbIX

npegnonaraii

pacqeT

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RBYMS MeTOAaMH, OAHH pe3yjibTaTOB OCP (cnexlyA o6bllqHO9 ripaKTHKe), a apyrog npeHycMaTpHBan8 K AaHHbIM HCflOJIb3OBaHHe HHOpMaLuHH O Cpe,aHeM nOTpe6JIeHHH 13 HC B Ka'eCTBe AOIOjIHHHSH TaKQKe MeTO, nocnexAHme 990a). 1 o6 OTHOCHTejibHbIX HepaBeHCTBaX (Ravallion,

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cpeaHerO 3HaHeHHA 4 OpMynbl )]WA HHTepeCCYEOHX Hac nOKa3aTeneH 6eAHOCTH KaK 4)YHKIUHH OT JIopeHua. 3TH napaMeTpbi pacnpe,lenieHHA H Ha6opa ApyrHx napaMeTpoB, OnHCblBaiOWHX KPHBYIO 3aTeM paCCIIHTaTb OueHHBaEOTCS 3KOHoMeTpHqeCKHM nyTeM. C nOMOlib1O 3THX 4bOpMyJI MO)KHO npHH YCJIOBHH 3HaqeHH4 cpeRHero H3MeHeHHH npH 6bl nOKa3aTejib 6erHocTH, KOTOpblHi nOJ1YHnJICS KOTOpbIe 6eAHocTH, HOCTOAHCTBa KpHBOHi JlopeHua; TaKHM o6pa3oM, MO)KHO OLAeHHTb YPOBHH Ha OCHOBaHHU HMenIH 6bl MeCTO B TOM cly'ae, eCJIH 6bl cpeRHee 3HameHHe 6buio rioJIyqeHO JlopeHixa. He OCP, npH YCJIOBHH nOCTOSHCTBa KpHBOH

HC,

OJDKHbl OTLICTYIHBo nOHHMaTb, KaKOBa Lejib 3THX BbEIHcjieHHH. OHa 3aKJUOMaeTcA He bBaHraaeulH, a B TOM, B TOM, 4To6bi TipegnCOKHTb "JlyqIIHHH" noKa3aTeCjb CTeneHH 6egHoCTH B B B BaHrniia)lel 6eIHocTH ,HHaMHKH tiTo6bi HPOBepHTb YCTORqHBOCT6 BblnOnHeHHbIX BCB OLlCHOK MblI

80-e roAbu.

IoxyLIeHHbECe pe3ynEbTaTbEI CBeCHbl B Ta6niHuy 8, B KOTOpOH npeRCTasBjeHbl KaK HHIeKC MHCJICHHOcTH 6e,RHbIX, TaK H ,4Ba xApyrHx nOKa3aTeCfl 6exHocTH Knacca (OcTepa-rpHpa-TOpH6eKa CpaBHHBaEOTCS C OLxeHKaMH, - PG H P 2 . OUeHKH, nojiytieHHble C nOMOUAbiO MCTOJOB OCP H BCE, H TeMnOB pocTa, JlopeHLa KPHBO OCP nOjiy14eHHbIMH Ha OCHOBC nOCTpOeHHOH ri oaaHHbIM

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OCP 3a 1981/82 rr.

K cpeCHeMy 3Ha'IeHHO anSA

Ta6WniHa

8. AJiLTepHaTHB6blie iiOca3aTeJR 6eCLHOCTH B BaHrniagem

flOKa3aTeJnb 6eaHOcTH

1981/82 rr.

I4HHAeKc MHCjieHHOCTH 6eHmix (H)

1983/84 rr.

1985/86 rr.

OCP

71,2

43,7

35,9

71,2

67,9

70,5

OCP

24,2

11,5

7,8

HC floKa3aTenb Kinacca DocTepa-rpi4pa-TopH6eKa (P2 ) OCP

24,2

22,0

22,9

10,6

4,4

2,5

10,6

9,5

HHjaeKc pa3pblBa 6enHOCTH (PG)

npHmenaHHe: Bce flOKa3aTeiIH 6eAHOCTH BbIpa)KeHbl B npoUeHTax. OCP: cpeaHee no Bbi6opKe

o6cJne,OBaHHl

no 4aHHImm HC: cpeaHee corjiacyeTcs C TeMnaMH pocTa no AaHHBIM lipHMeHHTeJIlHO K cpeRHeMy 3a 1981/82 rr. no zaHHamM OCP. HCTOnHHK: Ravallion

pacxoaoB

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(1990a).

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BO3HHKaeT pRA BOnpOCOB. 3aMeTHO KOHTpaCTHPY2 C OueHKaMH OCP/FiCEi, oemHKH pocTa, c AaHHbIMH H3 HaUHOHaBJbHbIX CBOROK (HcnoEnb3ylomue ,InV OfleHKH OMHOCUMeJZbHbIX HepaBeHCTB TOJTbKO OCP), CBHAeTeJIbCTBYIOT 0 TOM, tITO aOJI npeAnoniaraembix coriiacyiouwHecs

6eH,HbIX B HacenJeHHH Ha npoTaxKeHHe Bcero paccMaTpHBaeMoro nepHoga OCTaBanacE AocTaTo'uHo CTa6HJbHOH. A6coJnoTHbie OLueHKH qH4cieHHOCTH 6emHhix BbipoCJIH. 5ACHo, 4TO K Bb6BOIjy o COKpamelHHH 6eAHocTH B BaHrnageml 3a yKa3aHHblI nepHo, cnegyeT OTHOCHThCA C HeKOTOPbIM CKenTHIAH3MOM.

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PaBejuiETOH H JOHITH (Ravallion and Huppi, 1991) aHanH3H4PYoT 3sBOJIfolAIO CoBoKynHori 6enHOCTH B HHAOHe3HH B nepHoR Me)Ky 1984 H 1987 rr. - rIepHoA BHCeHHX HIOTpICeHHii H MaKPO3KOHOMH4eCKHX

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peanibHoe noTpe6JleHHe Ha oAHoro 0enJOBeKa, pean bHble aOXOgbi Ha oAHoro qejioBeKa, noTpe6JJeHHe nmLeBOA 3Heprwi Ha ORHoro qenoBeKa H AOJnHO pacxo,OB Ha npoqYKTbl riTraHmS B ceMeiiHoM 6ioxpieTe. rlpm Bcex 3THX rlOKa3aTenSX aBTOpbli o6HapyxcHBaIoT, -ITO yCHOBHe ,ROMHHaHTHOCTH nepBoro nopAiKa BblrOJ1HAeTCS Ha rpoTADKeHHH Bcero paccmaTpHBaemoro nepHoga. Ha PHCyHKe 9 noKa3aHa npoBepKa BbMIOJIHeHHA YCJIOBHA AOMHHaHTHOCTH nepBoro flOpSAKa: KpHBaA pacnpeaenieHHA noAymueBoro HoTpe6JIeHHS, COOTBeTcTBYIOUIBSI 1984 r., BO

Bcex

TOqKaX jie2KHT 6blWue COoTBeTcTByJOHJeH KPHBOH MAn 1987 r. AHajiorHiHbl

BblBO, 6yqeT non"yeH MaKcHManjbHoro o6fteMa nOTpe6JTeHHsA!) H npH JUO6oM

npu rno6ori HepTe 6eRHocTm (BnnoTb ao pa3yMHOM noKa3aTene 6eHocT4: 6eaHOCTb COKpaTHJiaCb. HOXOowiHH pe3yjibTaT ,gamOT H BCe OCTaJIbHbie HHAHKaTOpm 6narococTosHHs4. Ha PHCYHKe TaK2Ke nOKa3aHO pacnpeaeneHHe .nA 1990 r., Ha OCHOBaHH14 KOTOporo TaKwe MO)KHO cAeJIaTb OaHO3Ha4Hbl4 BbIBOa 0 COKpamWeHH 6enHocTH 3a paCCMaTpHBaeMM$ir nepHOa.

100

Cumulative percent of population

80 60 4020

Monthly consumption per person (Rp'OOO) 1984

+ 1987

째

1990

YCIIOBWI aOMHHaHTHOCTH PHCYHOK 9. KPUBble PaCnPOCTPaHeHHOCTH 6eoaHOCTH. FIPOBepKa BbinOnTHeHHR

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paHOHOB KaxcOoi H3 npOBHHUHHri4HIAOHe3HH AJIA 1984 H 1987 rr., OXBaTHB 52 perHOHa. ,InA rpOBepKH BO3MO)KHoro yMeHbineHHA He)lOegaHHS MO)KHO HCnOlOb3OBaTb TeOPHIO CTOxacTHmeCKoii AOMHHaHTHOCTH Aa)Ke B TOM cJy'ae, Korga pacnpe2eiieHHe noTrpe6HocTeri B nHLieBOrH 3HeprHH HeH3BeCTHO (Pa3Aeji 2.7). npOBepKa BbEIOJ1HeHHS YCJIOBHS[ AOMHHaHTHOCTH nepBoro nopAaKa yKa3bIBaeT Ha o0AHO3HaMHoe yn.yLiUeHHe rOojIOKeHHS B 29 H3 52 perHOHOB Ha npOTADKeHHH Bcero paccMaTpHBaeMoro nepHoga, B TO BpeMS KaK O,AH03HawHOe yXyAtu1eHHe 6BEIO BbEIBneHO TOJIbKO B Tpex perloHax (Ravallion, 1992a). OaHaKo )InA 20 perHOHOB pe3yJIbTaTbI npoBepKH BbIHOJIHeHHA yCJIOBHJ aOMHHaHTHOCTH nepBoro nopsiaKa 6blJIH He CTOJTb OaHO3HaqHbl. lis KaxacorO H3 3THX perHOHOB pacripeAejieHHe 3a 1987 r. nepeceKjiocb C pacnpe,eJIeHHeM 3a 1984 r. jiHIulE O1AHH pa3 H B HaripaBjIeHHH CHH3Y BBepX, T. e. Ha6Jnojanocb yJIy'luieHHe B HHA(Heri HacTH pacnpeaejJeHHA. CpeiHss TOMqKa iepeceMeHHS COCTaBHna ripH6 jiH3HTejTbHo 1950 KaBjOpHIH Ha oQHoro 'eniOBeKa B LaeHb.

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1aKTOpOB, o6bACHSIIOlUHX 3TH pa3JiHqHA.

3.5

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80-x

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B pa6oTe Datt and Ravallion (1992b) HniIocTpHpyeTCA o 6 cyx(AaBuleecs B Pa3euie 2.6

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6JiarococTO5HH14, KOTOpbIe He CMOryT 6lTb H,aeHTH4JHUHpOBaHbl nyreM Ha6fuoReHHA 3a 4HHaMHKOH cnpoca, H nO3TOMY He cneayeT npeHe6peraTb nJo6ofi pyroA HH4lOpMatiHeA 0 BO3geHCTBHAX pCe(OpM, HanpHMep, TaKOI KaK He6jlarOnpHsTHoe BJIHAHHe Ha nHTaHHe 2leTer (Pa3eien 2.3).

K npHMepy, PaBeinmoH H BaH gep Bauiie (Ravallion and van de Walle, 1991 a)

HCHoJIh3oBaJIH aaHHbEl4 nogxog npH HCCJieaOBaHHH BJIHSHHS H3MeHeHHH I4eH Ha pHC Ha 6eRHOCTb B 14HaOHe3HHIII. BHa'a.Tie OHH oLjeHHBaEOT c1yHKUHIO 3KBHBaBJeHTHoro Roxoga, HCHOJnb3yS

MoReiWb cnpoca, a 3aTeM MOAeCjHPY1OT HOBbIe 3HaqeHHS 3KBHBaniCHTHoro goxoga Kawgori CeMbH nocnie H3MeHeHHSI yKa3aHHbIX ueH Ha pHc 12. AHanH3 BKJIEOqa' B ce6A BJIHAHHe Ha 111 lIM4 HcnoJ6b3oBaHi pe3ynJThTaTbi aHanH43a cnpoca, npeaBeCHHOFO B pa6oTe van de Walle (1989).

112 lpH

ycJIoB4HH, qTO 3TU H3MeHeHHA LeH HeBeJIHKH, gaHHLiH MeTog MOWKHO cyiuecTBeHHO ynpoCTHTh, paccqHTaB BnHAHHe H3MeHeHHA ueH Ha 6narococToAHHe B riepBoM ropsIAKe. nlpHMep TaKoro pacqeTa 6yereT

npHnBeAeH B cnie,yloLnem pa3,aeje.

3aTeM CpaBHHB3AHCb 6.iarOcOcTOsIH-e H3MeHeHHri XOXOJAOB OT Co6CTBeHHOrO npOH3BOACTBa. U3 HHX xapaKTepH3yeTci pacnpeLLeIIeHHSI 3KBHBalleHTHb1X AIOXO,AOB, qTO6bl y3HaTb, KaKoe 6o0jmeri 6eAHOCTbIO. 6eAHocTH OKa3bIBaeT PaBeauxboH H BaH Aep Banne o6Hapywtinti, 'ITO Bbi6op mepTbi yBeaH'qeHHA LleHbl Ha pHC B pewaioiiiee 3Ha4eHHe Ha OUeHKH BJISHUAH Ha COBOKynHytO 6eAHocTb Ha PHCyHKe 10 noKa3aH Ha'ajie BOCbMHAeCnTbix rOxlOB, Bbl3BaHHoe JlH6epaAH3aLlueI ToproBJIn. AoxoAa nocn1e 3KBHBaWeHTHoro MeToA onpeaenieHHA cABHra KyMyJISTHBHoro pacnpexeneeHHA yBeflHxieHAS

nepBoro nopAAKa UeHbi Ha pUC. nprqYHOHi HeBblnOJIHeHHA yCflOB1s aOMMUHaHTHOCTH

HaHMeHee o6ecnemeHHblX B AaHHOM caly'ae ABJ1AeTCA TOT 4 aKT, HITO nOnO)KeHHe 6onbWHHCTBa LeH yxyAWIlHnOc6, a pOCTa pe3yflbTaTe (rsiaBHbIM o6pa3oM, 6e33eMenbHor4 ceJbCKOUi 6ealHoTbI) B 6onee o6ecneqeHHblx 6eAHsKoB (4epMepoB C H3JIHuKaMH pHca) nonowKeHHe MHorHx yMI4UIHJOCb. EcjiH MmaKcHMaJbHaS

BO3MO)KHaS

HepTa 6eaHOCTH He npeBblwlaeT Z,

TO BbIBOA

B03paCTaTb. rIpH 6onee BbICOKHX OqeBHAeH: C POCTOM LIeHbI Ha pHC 6e,IHOCTb Tamoce 6yAeT 3HaeHtHHA BnOJIHe cornacyloTcA C 3Ha'qeHHAIX zmax BbIBOA He CTOJIb OZAH03Ha4eH, a TaKUe Hcnonb3oBaHHbIMH B npowUioM qepTaMH 6eAHocTH 911H 14HHOHe3HH. ay6unbi 6ej'eHOCTH OHaKO TO wKe camoe HCCIieAOBaHHie BbISBUIO, qTO BCe lOKa3aTenJIH CnpaBeAIUHBO ARA 3TO U pHc, Ha yKa3biBa1OT Ha OAH03Ha'qHbl pOCT 6exAHocTH npH yBejiHqeHHH LteH TOT caKT, ITO o6J]aCTb nOil KpHBOri BceX B03MOXCHbIX qepT 6eAHOCTH. 06 3TOM CBHAeTeJibCTByeT o6naCTH noA KpHBOH "nocne "jAO yBenH1HeHHA LjeHbI Ha PHC" Ha PHCyHKe 10 nOBC1OAY MeHbwLe AlOMIAHaHTHOCTH BTOpOrO nOpAAKa yBenJIHTeHHSI ueHbl Ha pHC . rIpOBepKa BbinOnHeHHA YCJIOBS4 6eAHocTH, yBeJrnHwBaolUHecA 1O31sonSeT nOnIyHTb x4eTKOe paH2KHpOBaHHe. Bce noKa3aTejiH U3 6ezlHblx, 6yAyr TaK)Ke nUo6oro ,AOXO,AOB (yMeHbwaioLWHecA) c yMeHbeleHHeM (yBenwieHHeM) pIc H 3TH CcnpaBeAIJHBO Ha LeHbl yBeJIH'IHBaTbC.I (yMeHbluaTbcA) npH yBeiH'eIHHH (yMeHbmeHuH) AnA W1HpOKorO AHana3OHa 3HaqeHHi qepTbi 6eAHOcTH.

Cumulative percentage of the population

r price

Increase

*fttor prIc/ Incrolaee/

ore::o

Equivalent income

BbInOJ]HeHH5 YCJIOBHSI 4OMHHaHTHOCTH nepBoro nopsiAia npH H3MeHeHH" KyMYjII1THBHbie pacnpexReseHHLs ueHbl Ha OAUH U3 OCHOBHblX HPOAROBOnJbCTBeHHbIX TOBaPOB. cCTHIH3oBaHHbIe, HO (H1cToiHHK: pHc. Ha teHbl 3KBHBaJ1eHTHoro xioxozia AiO H nocnie yBeniKeHfsi de Walle, 1991.) van and Ravallion pa6oTbi 13 cornacyiotuHecx C pe3yJILTaTaMH 2IA HHXOHe3HHa aHHbIe

PHCYHOK

10. npoBepKa

PeaKYU,xpbiHiKa mpy6a Ha u3MeHenue ZjeHbl Hapuc 6 ce}zbcKuxpauoHax aHznaa6etu

B cTpaHax C arpapHoiH 3KOHOM14KOA, pacnoJIo)KeHHbIx Ha 3HaMHTeJIbHori HacTH TeppHTopHi A3MM, a TaKiwe BO BCe 6 oJIbLieM 'Hccne acjpHKaHCK4X paiOHax ioxKHee Caxapbl noniyxaloT 3HaqHTejibHyio xlacTb CBOHX )jOXOAOB B BMAe 3apa6oTHoii flJIaTbl 3a Tpy, no HarMy Ha BeAHAK1

npOH3BorgcTBe

npOJOBOIbCTBeHHorO

yBeJIHtieHHIo CTaBOK OnnlaTbI

Tpyga

3epHa. HoBbEILHeHHe LjeH Ha pHC, BepOSTHO, npHBeBeT K cejlbcKoxO3AricTBeHHb1x pa6o4Hx. 3 To HeCKojibKO cMA1rHT

He6JIaronpHsiTHoe BJIH5iHHe Ha 6eaHHbIx. Ho HaCKOJlEKo 6bicTpo pbIHKH Tpy)aa CMOryT flepecTpoHTmcA B CooTBeTcTB4H C HOBbIMH yCJIOBHAMH? A HIOIblTanCs gaTb OTBeT Ha 3TOT BOnpOC npHMeHHTeJTbHO K BaHrnaemu (Ravallion, 1990b). HcnOnb3oBaHHblri MHOO norxoAXO BKnioHaeT B ce6si

AHHaMH'ecKyio

3KoHoMeTpHiecKyIo

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onpelenieHHs4 3apa6OTHou nfali6Tb 1991). CTaBKa 3apa6oTHori nHJaTbI no COCTOSIHHIO Ha Ka)KAylo AaTy MogenjipoBaAacb KaK cPyHKUHA 3ana3JaEbBaoeiije 3apa6oTHori nnaTmi, TeKyLuHx H 3aria3,gmBaoiouHx [AeH Ha pHc, a TaKi*e pa3JIHMHbIx ,pyrHx riepeMeHHbIx (lUeH Ha cenbcKoXo3sAicTBeHHbIx

,RpyrHe

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pa6oxiix (Boyce

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H Ravallion,

cejibCKoxo3SAcTBeHHoHi

npOH3BoRHTeJnHocTT). 3aTeM B MO,aemb ceMeliHOrO 4epMepcKoro Xo3SACTBa H Hcnojib3oBajiacb OL\eHKH BJIHAHHS H3MeHeHHfi IeH Ha pHC Ha 6narococToAHHe 6eaHElX.

4)yHKLHA "BcTpa4Bajiacb"

3Ta =An

Torga LIAS OueHOK (nepBoro nopBAKa) aeHe)KHoA BeiHtIHH]b6 BJIH4HHSA H3MeHeHHsI UeH Ha naroCocToslHHe Ha KaXcgoM YpOBHe AOXOaOB MO)KHO BocfoJIEb3oBaTmcs cJ1eaylowerl 4~opMyjnoHi:

(15)

JAeHe)KHas BeJiHqHHa

BJIHS4HHS H3MeHeHHS =

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[VBJ4[P + lIJB1flT.3]*

H3MeHeHHe LjeHbl Ha

LUCHbl Ha PHC Ha

pHC,

4DepMepcKoe ,4OMOXO3ArHCTBO

rge

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,ROMOX03sIiiCTBOM (BpeMs

pa6oTbl no HaHMy MHHYC BpeMS pa6oTbl Ha ce6f), a 3 - 3jIacTHqHOCTb pa6oqero no OTHoIIeHHIO K ueHe Ha pHc. B

cTaBKH 3apa6oTHoR niiaTbi ceJIbCKoXo3AriCTBeHHoro

oco6oM cJyMae, KorUa 3 = 0, BbimueripHBegeHHas copMyjia B nepBOM nopsA4Ke ripeo6pa3yeTcA B aHanor MeToaa, onHcaHHoro B npeAblAyuteM pa3,iene H oCHoBaHHoro Ha 4YHKIAHH oiXeHOMqHoro 3KBHBaneHTHOrO

goXoga:

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ueHbI Ha HeKOTOpbEJI TOBap, B YCJIOBHAx riOCTOSHCTBa LAeH Ha 4pyrHe TOBapEb aHnpoKCHMHpyeTCS npoM3BeeHmeM H3MeHeHHSi ueHbl H HCXO,4HOrO HeTTo-npegjio)KeHHS (npOH3BO)QCTBO MHHYC noTpe6neHHe) 3TOFO TOBapa. AnnpoKcHMamaUA TeM TOxnHee, HeM MeHbuhe H3MeHeHHe LAeHbl H MeHblUe 3HaHeHHe o6iuix paBHOBeCHbIX BJIHBHHH Ha LxeHbE Ha apyrue TOBapbl. JtnAs baHrnageu 6bmH noriny,eHEI cnejaytoMHe pe3yJIbTaTbl: 3 = 0,2 (B KpaTKoCpOMHOri

nepcneKTHBe),

3 = 0,5 (B AonroCpoxlHoHi nepCrieKTHBe). BbilcHAeTcA, HTO 3TH o6ugHe BJIH3HHM, onocpexIyeMbie xIepe3 phIHOK TpyJia, B03,aeiiCTByIOT Ha BJIHAHHe H3MCHeHHA ueHbl Ha pHC Ha pacnpeaeeneHHe 6 JIarocoCToSHHA, o Mem 6o0nee no.zipo6Ho pacCKa3bIBaeTCA B pa6oTe Ravallion (1 990b). paBHoBeCHble

riiaBHbMM Bb1BO,OM H3 aaHHOrO HCCICTeOBaHHA ABJIqeTCS TO, HTO B pe3ynbTaTe nOBbi6uieHHS 1ieH Ha pHC rOiOoKeHHe He6eaHbiX CenjbCKHX aKTeJieg B 6 OJbUmHHCTBe cjiyxiaeB B KpaTKocpO'4HOUi nepcneKTHBe yn"y'HIaeTcs, B TO BpeMM KaK riOJIO)KeHHe CenbCKOii H rOpOQCKOr4 6 eaHOTbI 06bl'HO yxy.ulaeTcs. B IOJ1FOCpO'1HOri nepcneKTHBe BJIHAHHe Ha 6 IaroocToSHHe ceJIbCKHX 6e,RHAKoB

K HeHTpanJbHbIM HJIH nO3HTHBHbIM. ARAi Bo3BpaTa CeJIbCKOr 6eRHOTbl ro,a. 3-4 cBoeMy npe)KHeMy YPOBHIo 6narococToAHIHsl o6WLHO Tpe6yeTcSc qaiie

3.8

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nOgo6HbIX nporpaMM.

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npH KOTOPbIX npHBeiiH K pa3Hoo6pa3HIo nporpaMM "HHaH4KaTOpHOrO agpecHoro pacnpeaenieHHA", 3eMjieH, BnaaeHHe KaK TpaHc4epTbi cTaBSTCS B 3aBHCHMOCTb OT TaKHX HHJIHKaTOpOB 6eLIHoCTH, npHHawJe)KHOCTb K KaCTe HJnH MeCTo nOCTOAHHoro )KHTeJIbcTBa.

npeHMylgeCTB, AApecHoe pacipe,enieHHe TpaHcc~epT nO perHOHaM HMeeT PSA oqeBI1HbLix pa3JIHIHA B Korga AeJaloTcs InOllbITKH IIOMOMb 6eXaHbIM. 3Ha4HTeJlbHbie Me)KperHoHaJlbHbie o6bFqHbIM SBjieHieM, H OTCTaJIbIe )KH3HeHHOM YpOBHe B pa3BHBaOiIHXCSA CTpaHax 3iBJIASOTCS OaHHM H3 nonie3HbIX HHAUKaTOpOB paHEoHbl qacTo MOKHO BbIABHT.b 6e3 oco6oro Tpyxga. flO3TOMY Toro, npUiCyTCTBHe MeCTHbiX 6egHOCTH MO)KeT CJiy)KHTb MeCTO nOCTOSHHOrO )KHTejibCTBa. KpoMe annapaTa H 0 TOM, opraHOB BjiaCTH CBHaeTeInbCTByeT o6 o6meM HaJIH4HH aqMMHHHCTpaTHBHOrO B pa3BHBaioMemc3 6eAHOCTH COKpaWUeHHSI 'ITO OH y)Ke 3aaeriCTBOBaH BO MHorHx nporpammax BO BCeX ImTaTax BbirlJiaT MHpe. HanpHmep, pacnpeaeneHHe UeHTpaiIH3OBaHHbIX rocyaapCTBCHHbMX pa3jiHlqHSAMH B 4HH,4HH TaKxce OTqaaCTH o6ycjiOBJIeHO CymeCTBYIOUWMH M)mXcAy 1ITaTaMH pacnpocTpaHeHHOCTH 6eaHOCTH.

B pa6oTe

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(Datt and Ravallion,

1 992a)

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npo6xieMa

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AOTpaHCcepTHbie AOXO)Tbh OHH npHXORSIT K Bl6BOay, CXejiaHHbIX aBTOpaMH npeInoioO)KeHHH B OTHOiiieHHH OueHKH 6eAHocTH xapaKTepY3yeTCA 6o0nee "AOHOP wTO 75% H 90% TpaHc4JepTOB, npH KOTOPbIX LITaT HIH CeKTOp6bmiH 6bl ceKTop-"nony'iaTeib", HnH UlTaT 'leM BLICOKHM cpe,4HHM YPOBHeM noTpe6jieHHq, Kaqecm6efHHbl4 o6pa3oM, TaKHM r. 1983 COBOKynHoH 6egaHocTH B AOCTaTO'qHbl ARA coKpaiueHUI4

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TaKHM yxc

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cDaKTlHiecKoe 3HaqeHHe (NSS, 'epTa 6eAHocTH = 89 pynHH Ha

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(H)

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43,9

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rlpm4emaHHe: MoaejinHpoBaHHe npegrnoniaraeT, TO o 6 iueHauHoHaJIbHoe cpeUHee 3HaMeHHe He noAi3epxceHo BJIHUH1O MeKperHOHaoIbHoro repepacrpeqeJIeHH5 H 'TO KpUBbie JlopeHua B npeaeniax perHOHOB TaK)fIe He rOXRBepReeHm B03gerCCTBM0.

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Datt and Ravallion (1992a).

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Ta6nHICe

B HHAH4 a,MHHHCTpaTHBHbIMH perHoHax rpaHHULaMH, oKa3biBaeTcsi )OBOnbHO cna6blM HHAHKaTOpOM 6eAHHoCTH: B "6eaHbix" npo)KHBaeT MHo)KecTBo He6eAHbix, a MHOrH4e 6exAHAKU o6HTalOT B "6oraTbIx" perHOHax. 3Ta nOCTOSHHOrO

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onpegeJnAeMbi6i

CyIICCTBYlOIIWMH

nocneAwHsA rpynna HeceT Ha ce6e qaCTb H3RepeKeK perHoHanbHoro axgpecHoro pacnpegeneHHs nOMOIIH, XOTSI HMeeT MeCTO yTeIKa COUIaBJbHbIX BbirOA K nepBoR rpynne. AAMHHHcTpaTHBHo TaKHM OCyJeCTBHMEie 43opMBI perHoHaIbHoro/ceKTOpHoro a,apecHoro pacnpeeieneHHA MOryT, COBOKynHOH 6exAHoCTH B BeCbMa rpy6biMH HHCTpyMeHTaMH coKpaIIeHHsl MeCT cKopee npH6bubHbIx 6onee H3 4HHAHH. YBenjHqeHHe H3,Aep)KeK Ha nepemeueHuie pecypcoB Bcero eiue 6onbwe coKpaTqT BLIlO,b1 XAnx 6eaiHbix.

o6pa3oM,

ABJISTbCq

H AHanor4lHbie 3Kcriep4MeHTbi ,1SI 1HHMOHe3H4, r,Ae pa3j1Hq1HS4 B paCnpoCTpaHeHHocTH BbMCOKylO 6o0iee ocTpoTe 6eAHOCTH Mex2Ky- pa3HbIMH OCTPOBaMH BblpaKeH6Hbi CHJibHee, nOKa3a3iH aKT, 4TO TBOpULb6 344eKTHBHOCTL xaHHoro THna agpecHoro pacnpeaenieHHs - a TaKiKe TOT c

nOJIHTHKH MeAKperHOHajibHblX TpaHC4epTOB COBep-IleHHO He OCO3HaioT 3Ty (Ravallion, 1992b). Ho gawe B 3TOM cny'-ae perHoHan]Hoe axApecHoe

cyiUeCTByIOueHi 3qOeKTHBHOCTb

pacnpe,enieHHe

naHauteerl:

ABJsAeTCS

HaUHOHaiEbHyiO

B03)9erCTBHe

6eAHocTb

Mex(Ay pa3fli4qHbIMH IIPOBHHLUAMH HHAOHe3HH HeOrpaHHmeHHMlX repepacripeXaeneHHH 1 cpeAHero 6blno 6bI 3KBHBaeirHTHO Tpex- 4eTbIpexnpoueHTHoMy yBejlHIeHHlIO o6uweHauiHoHanbHoro IOXO;tOB

noTpe6jieHH54.

Mbl

AOJIACHbl

HCKaTb

jIpyrHe

KOTOpbEi

HHAH4KaTopbE,

ocyfleCTBJ1Tb 6onee TOqHoe a-gpecHoe pacnpe.aejeHHe 6Hympu

perHOHOB

HO3BOYIHAH

HaM

HJH CeKTOpOB.

A6pecuoepacnpe6eAeHue noMoufu no npu3naicy 6Aa6eHwn 3eAmeu 6 Banawzeuw

CeJIbCKHX paHOHax KO)KHoi

A3HH H (Bo Bce 6onlbweH

ioKHee Caxapbl HaH6ojlee MHoroo6euaiowHM oTaeJbHO 6eARHOCTH,

KJiaccy,

ABJIAeTCSq

BepOATHO, H

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CHJIbHyIO

y'qHTbIBaM

3eMjieBjiageHHeM

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6eJIHOCTblO

CenJbCKHX

CTeneHH)

B paHoHax A4pHKe

B3TbIM aononJHHTebl6HbIM HHJAHKaTOpOM

K TOMY

HH4 HHOMy 3eM.neBnaJrenbqecKoMy

KOppeJiluHio,

par4OHaX

3Hal4HTenbHori

Ha6miogaeMyio qaCTH

IO)KHoir

Mex)ZY A3HH.

noTpe6HOCTm B BbErnoJHeHHoe aBTOpOM MOqejfHpOBaHHe BJIHAHHH Ha 6ejlHOcTE nOATBepwKaeT HJH nOqTH aApecHOr4 HanpaBjieHHOCTH nporpamm COKpaWLeHHSI 6eaHOCTH Ha 6e33eMenbHblx

PHCYHKe 11 6e33eMenbHblx o6HTaTeneik ceCJbCKHX paHoHOB EaHrnaaeui (Ravallion, 1989). Ha Knlacca B 3eMneBjlaAe3mb'ecKOro OT nOKa3aHO H3MeHeHHe nOKa3aTeiSi 6eJaHOCTH P1 B 3aBHCHMOCTH ceJlbcK4x paHoHax BaHrnaAeiu, a TaKwoe npeCTaBneHbl YB33aHHble C KJIaccOM 3emnenaAeHHA 6bIJIH 6bl CBeCTH K MHHHMYMY noKa3aTeJIb COBOKynHOii 6eaHocTu P 2 HpH 3aAaHHoM 61loaIeTe (6onee no,qpo6Ho 3TOT BOllPOC o6cyxK,qaeTcA B pa6oTe Ravallion, XOTSI 1989). C pOCTOM 3eMj1eBnajiejmiecKoro Kiiacca o6¶beM TpaHC4epT COKpamaeTC5i,

TpaHC4+epTbi,

KOTOpble

gonjDKHbi

3eMjieBjlaqeJlbmecKoro C pOCTOM )roxo.i yBeJ1HqHBaeTCs, raaxKe ecni KorAa 6eRHOCTb cBeAneHa K MHHHMyMy. nocjieTpaHc4XepTHbiH

Klacca

no-npe)KHeMy

Tk per household per month

3000

FGT poverty gap 0.2

2500 2000

.0.6

1000-

0.4

500;

- 0.3

-1000 - 0

- 0.2

-1500

Mean landholding of class (acres) -+*-

FGT Poverty gap Poverty min transfer

PHCYHOIC 11. CMoten1HpOBaHHbie Cxembi

+ +

Actual mean Income Poet-transfer Income

TpaHc@pepTOB. PacnpeaeJeHHe

BnaIIeHHA 3eMjneH1 B uteinSx coKpamleHHA 6eaHOCTH aaanTUPOBaHHbie aHHniie H3 pa6oThi Ravallion, 1989.)

B CejibCKHX

TpaHCq)epTOB

paHlOHax

EaHrJiaAeul.

no npH3HaKy (HCTOqHHK:

ORHaKO noiyqeHHEie pe3yJIbTaTbl BbSIBHJIH orpaHH4eHHsl, npuHCyUHe aApeCHOMy pacnpeAejieHHIO TpaHC4epTOB no npH3HaKy 3eMjieBj¶aLeHHA. IIpHHa=eWKHOCTb K TOMy HnH HHOMY 3eMneBJ1aAeJibqeCKOMy KJiaccy SABJIJleTCSI XOTS H CHJlbHbIM, HO HeHAeaJIbHbIM cfaKTopoM 6eUHoCTH; Cyi1eCTBYeT

cenbcKasx

6eRHoTa,

Bna,etoLtasA

aOCTaTo4HbMM

KOJIHMCCTBOM

3eMiH,

eCTb

6e33eMeiEbHbie He6e,aHlKH. OnpeeieneHHyIo nOrpelUHOCTb B 3TO COOTHOILIeHHU BHOCSIT H pa3wiHqHm B KaMecTBe 3eMnH. OqeBHHO, TaKHM o6pm3oM Henb3SA pacCHHTbIBaTb Ha J1HKBHAauHio 6eXIHocTH Aawe npH CaMbwX "lUeapbix" npeqnoioOKeHHAX OTHOCHUTeRbHO TOrO, KaKOH BHXI nepepacnpele.neHHi 4OXOZAOB Me)Kry npe.CTaBHTeJIAMH pa3HbIX 3eMJIeBuxaAeJEbqecKHx KjnacCOB SABJSeTCsl rIOAHTHMeCKH ocy1ecTBHMbIM. B CaMOM ,gene, Aa2Ke npu nOJHOM KOHTpOJIe Ha,a pacnpeeneHHeM IAOXO,4OB Me,4y 10 3eMjeBJ1aAefIbqeCKHMH KrlaccaMll B EaHrjiaqeul OCTHXHMoe C rlOMOLUbIO TaKHX

mep

MaKCHManbHOe cOKpaLueHHe COBOKynHOji OCTPOTbl 6eRHocTH He npeBbECHT

Toro pe3yJlbTaTa, KOTOpEJA MO)KHO 6 bIflo 6bl nOJnymHTb noCpe2jCTBOM HeaupeCHoro egHHOpa3OBOrO nepeMHcneHHsl aeHer BCeM AOMOXO3A1ACTBaM. lFpH 3TOM CTOUiMOCTb TaKOH nOMOU.gH 3KBHBaiieHTHa npH6SIH3HTejibHO O,4HOR ecqToH BBr (Ravallion, 1989). Pe3YjnbTaTHBHOCTb mep no COKpa1UeHHIo 6eAHOCTH Mo)KeT BO3paCTaTb nO, BHflHSAHeM pa3JiH4HbIX cfaKTOpOB, TaKHX KaK B039eHCTBHe pocTa Z1OXOXtOB HnH 6oraTcTBa Ha 6yayLuyio npOH3BOfaHTenibHocTb Tpyaa 6ei-HbIXl 13. ApyrHe ice

4aKTOpbw, HanpOTHB, CHHKaiOT 344eKTHBHOCTb 3THX Mep. rHpaB]aonoao6Hbie OrpaHH'IeHHSA nepepacnperIeJlHTeJIbHbix noIIHOMo'LHi npaBHTen16CTBa eiue 6onbwle yMeHbuiHnJH 6bl nOjJO)KHTejbHOe BJIHAHHe TaKOI1 rOinHTHK Ha 6eJHbIX.

113 3ToT Bonpoc paccMaTpHBaeTcsi

B pa6oTe Ravallion and Sen (1992), aBTopbI KOTOpOii npHxoaAT K BbIBOny, 4TO pe3oHHble nonpaBKH Ha pa31HUqHBie BJIHAHHAS Ha npoH3BOaHTeJmbHoCTb BHOCST CBOUi BKnaA B B03AeRCTBHe Ha 6eRHocTm anpeCHoro pacnpeAe"eHHX TpaHc4fepT no npH3HaKy BnaJeHXH3 3eMhIeB, XOTh 3TOT 34XeKT He ABnHeTCa CHnbHO BbIpamKeHHbIM.

HpOQpaMMbi mpyooycmpoucmea na o6ujecmeHnbleepa6ombi Pa3oqapoBaHHe no noBogy C nepcneKTHB npIMoro coKpatulReHHu

6eRHOCTH C riOMoIublo

ApyrHX CpeACTB, TaKHX KaK perHoHaJIbHoe a,pecHoe pacnpeJAejieHHe, BHOBb pa3OKrJIO HHTepec K

OiiHOri H3 cTapeHIIuHX H3BecTHbMx CXeM yMeHblleHHS 6eIHocTH - nporpammam o6luecTBeHHbIx pa6oT, HanpHMep, K TaKHM, KaK rpOrpaMMbi o6lqecTBeHHbIx pa6oT ARsA cenbCKOrO HaceneHirA, 6onee nlOJlytHBIHe IllHpOKOe pacnpocTpaHeHHe B IO)KHOA A3HH H CTaHOBSILuHeCB BCe 6onee H 3aKnioaeTcs UOrIYJIAPHbIMH B .ApyrHx perHoHax. OCHOBHOH aprymenT B nOJTL3y TaKHX nporpaMM He B TOM, qTO o61meCTBeHHbie pa6oTbl cnoco6Hbi COKpallAaTb 6eAHOCTb HIyTeM CO3AaHHB CpeACTB nonyMeHHs ,OXOJAOB (XOTs H 3To camo no ce6e Heruoxo), a B TOM, qTO nOTpe6HOCTH B pa6oTe MOryT,

nO-BHAHMOMy,

CO3JAaBaTb

B TOM "caMoaApeCOBaHHs" c 60pb6bI KeJiaHHe y'aCTBOBaTb B nporpaMMax

npeBocXolHbie

CTHMYJIbl

ASA

CMbIcJie, -rTo He6eAHbIe peAKO H3bABnfl2OT 1 6eAHOcTE.1o, Tora KaK OIeHb MHOrHe 6egHb1e, HaHpOTHB, OXOTHO leJaioT 3T0 14.

3TH npOrpaMMbl, qTo6bI OHH 6brnH MaKCHMaTibHO 3KOHOMHMeCKH 3:44eKTHBHbIMI4 B 6opb6e c 6CeJHOCTb1O? IIpH pa3pa6OTKe HOjiHTHKH BO3HHKaioT B3aHMoCBA3aHHbie BonpoCbl pa3Mepa 3apa6omuou nJlambl 14 uiupombi ox6ama nporpaMMoH KaK

cneAyeT

Wpy,aOYCTPOHCTBa

rmaHHPOBaTb

o6mecTBeHHbIe

rIPH

pa6oTbl.

3aqa)HHOM

AOflrOCpO'iHOM

6iopieTe

npHXO,AHTCS Bbi6HpaTb MeAcjy npOrpaMMOH, HauejieHHOrH Ha UlHpOKHH OXBaT np 4nOTeHiAHaBJbHO HH3KHX cTaBKaX 3apa6OTHOi nIiaTbi, H nporpaMMoi C orpaHHqeHHbIM qiHcjioM yMaCTHHKOB, npe)AyCMaTpHBa1o1ei r,OCTaTO'IHO BbICOKYIO CTaBKY 3apa6oTHori nriaTbI, npH KOTOpOH MHOrHe ee

y-qaCTHHKH CMOrnIH 6bI nOKOHqHTb C co6CTBeHHoH 6eAHocTbIo. JaHHas npo6neMa HccfiegyeTcS B pa6oTe Ravallion (1991 b), aBTOP KOTOpOHi BbIBORHT KPHTepHH OL1eHKH CTHJH3OBaHHbIX aBJTepHaTHBHbIX BapHaHTOB nOflHTHKH C TO'HKH 3peHHS Pe3ynbTaTEl

3MrHHp'meCKoro

BaHrnaAem B o6iueM H

eSJIOM

MOenJHpOBaHHA

uHPOKOrO Kiiacca

ajibTepHaTHBHbIX

noKa3aTejieA 6eAHoCTH.

BapHaHTOB

nOjIHTHKH

,jRn

CBHmATenjbCTBYIOT B nOJnb3y UlHpOKOIO OXBaTa npH HH3KHX CTaBKaX

03a6oqeHO oCmpomou COBOKYlnHOR 6eAHOCTH, OueHHBaeMOri, HanpHMep, C nOMOilblO noKa3aTeJsI P 2 mnacca cDocTepa-FpHpa-TOpH6eKa. 3To 3apa6OTHOr4

nJIaTbi,

Korua

rpaBHTeCJbCTBO

cnpaBexuHBo ga)Ke B TOM cnyiae, KOrFa He CBs[3aHHbie C BbInHIaTOH 3apa6OTHOr4 niaTbl 3aTpaTEJ B pacqeTe Ha OHOrO pa6o'ero BeCbMa BejiHKH (XOTs B cnyqae, Korja 3TH 3aTpaTbI CJIHUIKOM BeJIHKH, 2KeiiaTeCjbHO Bce-TaKH OrpaHHiHTb OxBaT). KaK npaBHJO, UIHpOKOOXBaTHbie npOrpaMMbl B nepByIo oqepegb ynylllIaIoT nojlo)KeHHe HMeHHO 6eZAHbIX, H nO3TOMY HX BO3gefCThHe Ha P 2 6y,aeT 6oambuHM, 'eM Ha PG HiH H. HpOBepKa BbinOJ1HeHHS YCJIOBHS AOMHHaHTHocTH nepBoro 1 nopA)iKa o6bl'HO CBHgeTenlbCTByCT B nOJIb3y IiHpOKOrO OxBaTal 5, no3ToMy KOHeqHblH BbIBO,

nOKa3aTeJIS 6eaHocTH HpH yCjIOBHH, 'TO rny6HHbl 6eCHOcTH. ApryMeHTbl B nOJIb3y

YCTOH'qHB no OTHOlueHHIO K Bbl6opy 'IepTbl 6e,iHOcTH H

nOCIie,gHHi nO3BOJISIeT OLeHHTb coKpaweHHe orpaHHmeHHoro oxBaTa npH 6onee BbICOKHX CTaBKaX 3apa6OTHOH nllaTbI BbirlASAST 6onee HTpe BHHMaHHS4 HaXOqHTCS TOJIbKO paCnpOCTpaHCHHOCTb 6eXHOCTH, y6egHTeJmHbIMH, KOra B oiAeHHBaeMas noKa3aT'eneM H, nOCKOJIbKy B 3TOM cnyqae 6onime Jnogerl cMoryT HOJHSATbCS Hag qepTorl 6eflHOCTH.

114 115

o6cyxcraioTcs B pa6oTe H 3Ta TeopHA UaKTbI

Ravallion (1991a).

Ha 14CKIIIoMeHHA H3 3TorO npaBania B03MO)IHbl B TOM cJyMae, Korga aAMHHHcTpaTHBHbie H3,Aep)KKH B pacqeTe

oJIHoro pa6oqero CJIIIIKOM BbICOKH;

CM.

Ravallion (1991b).

100

Cumulative percentage of persons

Without public work

With

public works

80 7060 60

40302010 400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Mean income per person (Rs/year, 1983 prices)

PHCYHOK 12. KpHBbme paCllpOCTpaHeHHOCTH 6e.RHOCTH C y9eTOM H 6e3 yseTa 3apa6OTKOB Ha o6lueCTBeHHbIX pa6oTax B HHAUHiCKOfi )epeBHe. PacnpeaeneHMe cpeaHero ceMeAHoro goxoaa 3a IieCTTuieTHHri nepHOa B pacHeTe Ha OqHOrO 4enoBeKa B HHAHICKOIi aepeBHe, a TaK2Ke CMOXejiHpOBaHHOe

pacripeneneiHHe npH OTCYTCTBHH B03MO)KHOCTH TpyaOyCTpOHCTBa Ha o6fecTBeHHbie pa6oTbi C nonpaBKOl Ha yrIylU.eHHbIe AOXOIbl OT a1ThTePHaTHBH]6X BHaOB AeBTenbHOCTH. (I4CTO9HHK: Datt and Ravallion, 199 1c.)

Bo3neAcTBHe Ha 6eRHOCTb OZIHOr4 H3 nporpamM 3aHSTOCTH Ha o6jecTBeHHblx pa6oTax c 3apa6oTHoA nfiaTorH Henfioxo 4JIJHOCTpHpyeTCA HeKOTopblMH pe3yJlbTaTaMH, nonyJeHHbI-IIMH JaTroM H PaBennbOHOM (Datt and Ravallion, 1992c). OHU H3yqaJH BJTHAHHe B03M0xHocTeHI Tpy,jOyCTpOACTBa Ha o6wUecTBeHHbie pa6oTbi (B OCHOBHOM B paMKaX ocyLIeCTBJ1AeMoi B IIIT. MaxapalllTpa "rlporpaMMbl rapaHTHi 3aHsTOCT4") Ha oXogbi )IKHTeneIH 0,RHOA H3 pacnonowleHHbIX Ha TeppHTOpHH 3TOMO WTaTa 6eaHbIX alepeBeHb, HcnojEb3YA Ha6op AaHHbX ,aoJurOBpeMeHHbIX o6cnerBoaHI4I x ceMeiHoro ypOBHl, OXBaTbiBaIOUlHi ueCTHneTHHH nepHo,. 3 TH zlaHHbEe nO3BOJIHRIi OUeHHTb ynyIeiiHHbie flOXOIabl ymaCTHHKOB npOrpaMMbI C TeM, 4T06bi MO)KHO 6buIo nPOH3BeCTH pacseT LaOXOaOB, KOTOpbIX CJietOBanO 6bi owKHaaT6 npH OTCyTCTBHH 3TOH nporpaMMbi. Ha PHCYHKe 12 noKa3aHo KYMYRJSITHBHOe pacnpegeneHHe CpeIlHero iAoxojia Ha OAHoro H IeJTOBeKa, nonyweHHoro nyTem ycpeaHeHHn gaHHbIX 3a IeCTb JIeT H c4HTaioLWerocs B CHJTy 3TOro HennIOXHM HHAHKaTOPOM HOPMaBJbHOrO - "nonrocpo'lHoro" wmu3HeHHoro ypOBHA. HIOKa3aHbI taBa pacnpegeJreHHa40HOA H3 KOTOPblX COOTBeTCTByeT cny9aio HanH4HSA B03MO)KHOCTH 3aHATOCTH Ha o6WecTBeHHbIx pa6oTax, a ,xpyroe - cnyqaio ee OTCyrCTBHS. HH3KOHi

IAaHHOM cjiysae ROJI)KHO BbinOJ1H31TbCSI

ycJioBae ROMI4HaHTHOCTU4 nepBoro nOPSAKa; B

pe3yrIbTaTe ALOcTyna K 3aHSTOCTH Ha o6wecTBeHHbIx pa6oTax HHsbH

OXOAbl HHCKOllbKO He

CHH3H.HCbl 16.

OqHaKO

MO)KHO

BHmeTb,

TaloKe

ITO

AaHHaA

nporpamma

HMeeT

aApecHyio

HeriapaJilejTHbi.

qTo o6e KpHBbie pacnpeaenieHHS CMbIciie, B TOM Ha MaKCHMarIbHblrl pa3pbIB no BepTHKaBJH HMeeT MeCTO Ha YPOBHe HeMHorHM HHX(e 700 pynHii l-eniOBeKa B ro) H COCTaBJISeT 13 npOLleHTHbIX nyHKTOB; pyrHMM CJIOBaMH, pllH HepTe 6eRHOCTH, pacnoRo)KeHHOA npHMCPHO Ha 3TOM ypOBHe, HH4ReKC HHcnieHHOcTH 6eqHbiX B pe3yflbTaTe HanpaBJeHHOCTb

OCYLUeCTBJleHH1S

nporpaMMbl

OQaHaKO THnHqHbie

COKpaTHJICSI

6bl

lepTbI 6eaHocTH anSI

npOUeHTHbIX nyHKTOB - c

33% ao 20%.

I4HAHH HaMHOrO npeBbiilllaOT 3TOT

Cej1bCKOiH

epTa 6egiHocTH noqpa3yMeBaeT AoXoA B pa3mepe 3TOM YPOBHe BO3geHCTBHe Ha HH,1eKC tlHcj1eHHOCTH Ha rog. B ripHMepHO 900 pyrHAi Ha qenioBeKa pa6oTbi 6e,aHbIX HaMHOrO MeHblue; 6niarogaps B03MO)KHOCTH TpyaOyCTpOrHCTBa Ha o6wecTBeHHbme

ypoBeHb. HaH6onee

qacTo

HCfOJ1b3yeMaAs

CHH)KaeTCSq iHiib c 42% go 40%. Ho,

BO3,aeACTBHe Ha TeX J1ogeg, KOTOpblI

pa3yMeeTcq,

3TO cpaBHeHHe

CKpblBaeT peanibHoe

HaXOASTCA rny6oKo 3a 'IepToHi 6eqHocTHm. Bonee n"y=llHH

noKa3aTeJib OCTpOTbl 6eAHOCTH, KaK P 2 ; npH 6e;HoCTH OaHOA H TOrl Ke lepTe 6ejIHOCTH 3TOT nOKa3aTejTb BbISBASeT cyUeCTBeHHoe CHHXeHHe B pe3yJ1bTaTe OCymeCTBjieHHS AaHHOA npOrpaMMbl - C 5,0% zo 3,2%.

HHAHKaTOP

MO)KHO nOJIyMlH4Tb,

HCnOJ1b3yS

TaKOH

3aHSTOCTH Ha o6iieCTBeHHI,IX pa6oTax HJljlOCTTHpi4OT TOT Ha CTOHMOCTHbiX B 3Ha'qHTeJIbHOH cTeneHH OCHOBbIBaThc

TaKHM o6pa3oM, rpOirpaMMbE

4IaKT, HTO OueHKa nOJIHTHKH MO)KeT cycmeHHAx, caej1aHHbix npH oripegenieHHH H oLicHKe 6CeHOCTH. JIH'4Hoe MHeHHe aBTopa, KOTOpOe, CMelO npCe1roloO)KHTb, pa3geJiiT C HHM MHOrHe 'IHTaTeJIH, 3aKxnoHaeTcA B TOM, HITO O1jeHKH nOjiHTHKH AOJDKHbl He TOJIbKO 6blT K BO3,aerHCTBHAM Ha

6o0iee 'yBCTBHTeJibHbIMH

"He6egUbix", HO H

AOJDKHbl

K BO3,aeHcTBHAM Ha "6eAHbix",

Taioie npHgaBaTb

HaH6OJbEmHri BeC Bo3LgeACTBHAM

Ha HaH6ojiee 6eaHHbIX.

ceKTop 116 OCHOBHhIM HCTOqHHKOM 4rHHaHCHPOBaHHS AaHHor nporpaMMbl ABJIAIOTCA HajiorH Ha ropoAcKoB ajibTepHaTHBHbiX cyt4ecTByeT He qTO 03HaqalOT, IlWTaTa MaxapaurTpa. 3aMeTHM, qTO 3TH pe3yJ1bTaTbE He xce BapHaHTOB rIOJ1HTHKH, KOTOpb1e MorJiH 6bl HMeTb 6oibwee B03AeACTBHe Ha 6eAHOcTL npH oAHOM H TOM (1992). Datt and Ravallion CM. BaJIOBOM o6-beMe BbirnaT;

4 Bb6BO0iBI H peicOMCHelatHH

OLXeHKH nporpecca pa3BHTHS1 TOH HJ1H HHOH CTpaHbl H aOCTOHHCTB TOH H1H4 14HHOH KOHKpeTHOH4 nOJ]HTHKI4 '-aCTO CkOPMHPYfOTCS Ha OCHOBe KOJ]HHeCTBeHHbIX oueHOK BenH4HHbl, FJly6HHbI 14 OCTpOTbl 6eqHoCT14. KaK Mbl y?Ke BHACJIH Ha psAe npHMepOB, nlpHBegeHHbIX B HaCTOHmerl MoHorpa4MHH, TaKHe oueHKH MoryT 6blTb BecbMa qyBCTBHTejibHbIMH K aHaTIHTHHeCKHM npear2oHOJKeHHSlM: HarpHMep, oteHb qacTo HepTa 6eRHoCTH B pa3BHBaIOUHXCq CTpaHax

pacnojiOXeHa

YPOBH

14JI1H

B6JIH3H

MO&bl

pacnpegeneHHi

rlOTpe6JleHHsf,

rFe

qiHcneHHOCTH 6e,4HbIX BeCbMa qyBCTBHTeIieH K TO0lHOMy MecTonono>KeHrlo 3TOH 'epTbi,

3TO

HHaeKC

TaK KaK B

TOqKe KYMY5IqTHBHOe TiaCTOTHoe pacnpe,enieHHe HMeeT HaH6oJIbLyIo KpyTH3Hy.

K CqaCTbMO,

BO MHOrHx

roJnHTHKO-opHeHTHpOBaHHb!x

ripHMeHeHHAX

Mbl

He CTOJIEKO

O3a6o0eHbl TOHHOH OujeHKOH TOrO HnIH HHOFO HOKa3aTeJ1S 6eAHocT4, CKOJIbKO rpOCTO XOTHM 3HaTb, KaKas H3 JRByX CHTyauHH - HanpHMep, ao H nocnie HeKOTOpOrO H3MeHeHHl nOJIHTHKH xapaKTepH3yeTCA 6onee BbICOKHM YpOBHeM 6eAHoCTm. OTranKHaBasCb OT COBpeMeHHOH TeOpHH H 4aKTOB, A nblTancSl nOKa3aTb, KaK MO)KHO BbinOflH*Tb TaKHe CpaBHHTenbHbie oueHKH 6egnHoCTH u KaKHe TpyaHOCTH fplH 3TOM Bo3HHKaIoT.

lpH nOJlKHbIM

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rpW4gaBaeMbfx MHo)KeCTBeHHbIM pecypcoB. 51 npegnonarato, 'TO

peHIeHHSI

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KOHKpCTHbIX "y3KHX" BOripOCOB

HanpHMep, ,aJSI HCCj1eaOBaHI4q ;IHHaMHKH 6egHocTH Ha ceMeH, a TaKe anJIA OUeHKH Bo3,AeACTBH9 KOHKpeTHbIX nOJTHTH'ieCKHX BMeuIiaTenbcTB, B03MO)KHO, Ha 3KCflepHMeHTaBJbHoH OCHOBe. YPOBHe

oTgeflbHbIX

nmoger

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YqHTbiBas npo6neMbl HaXO)KgeHHA HaeanjbHOrO ,IaCTO OKa3blBafOTCS nOKa3aTeJIH, IBJIRIOTCS

flOJI3HbIMH

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H ApyrHe

Ha OCHOBe

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aJqeKBaTHOYO OTpa)KeHHS1 B f1oKa3aTeJTIAX, OCHOBaHHb1X Ha HOTpe6JieHHH HinH aoxoaax. OaHaKO HeCMOTP5I Ha TO, 'TO 3TH rIOKa3aTeimH cnoco6Hbl o6eCne4HTb HaJIHqHCe lOJlC3HblX aOfIOJIHHTeJ1bHb1X JaHHbIX IpH BbllOJIHeHHH CpaBHHTeJlbHbIX oUeHOK 6eaHOCTH, He cnegyer roJIaraTbC5 HCKJIIOqHTeCibHO Ha TaKHe arperHpOBaHHble nOKa3aTeiIH. OHH He Bcerqa coaepwaT

ce6e aocTaToqHyio HH14OpMaIAHIO o6 ypOBHe )KH3HH 6exiHbix. HanpHMep, cpe,AHee noTpe6neHHe (oueHHBaeMoe HcxogA H3 HauHOHanbHbIX CBO,OK) Mo)KeT pacTH, a nono)KeHHe 6eqH3IKoB npH 3TOM He 6yAeT ynymuiaTbCA. KpoMe Toro, HeKOTOpble COL1HaBJbHbie roKa3aTenJH4 MOryT 6blTb tpe3MepHO aaBKe K He3HamiHTeJTbHOMy

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nOMOiuH, oco6eHHo ecniu B KaqeCTBe HCXOJaHOH TOMKH B3ATa cHTyauHKq, xapaKTePH3ytouaqCA peOTBpameHHe o6WHx HH4)eKxiHOHHbEX H BbICOKOU cMepTHOCTbIO. HecMOTpA Ha TO, 'TO napa3HTaPHbIX 3a6ojieBaHHH (TaKHX KaK ManJpiiA), 6eccnopHo, ABSIAeTCA nporpeccom - H OAHOH H3 HaH6ojiee npHOpHTeTHbIX 3agaq B TeX cJIyqaAx, Korga OHa etie He AOCTHrHyTa - OQHOH ee ABHO 6eAHocTH.

HCKOpeHeHH5I

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KpoMe

XOTA

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arperHpOBaHHbIx rIOKa3aTeiieH onpeAeneHHo OKa3bIBaeT BJIHMHHe pacnpeAe.reHHe riOTpe6JIeHHX HnH JAOXOAOB, HX noJIe3HOCTb KaK 4HRLHKaTOPOB pacrpeaenieHHA BeCbMa COMHHTeJ1bHa. HanpHMep, OHH MoryT 6blTb He CTOJIb BOCHllHHMqHBbl K 6JiaroCOCTOqHHIO CBepx6eRHbIX, KaK HaM xoTeJIocb 6bi.

noniyqeHHbIe

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BCeH BepOATHOCTH,

noAo6Hbie

6yJyT

OCTaBaTbCS[

BbilnOJHeHHA CpaBHHTeJTbHbIX

HH4opMauiHH )fA

aTlaHHbie HMe*oTcS

AOMOXO3ArHCTB gafHHbie o6 YPOBHe

B pe3y.JbTaTe o6cneAoBaHiiH

OCHOBHbIM H HaH6oJIee

eMKHM

HCTO4HHKOM

OUeHOK 6eAHOCTH. ECIIH B pa3BHTbKX CTpaHax

nOqTH nOBceMeCTHO,

nlpHMCpHO

B rioJIOBHHe pa3BHBafO111HXCA

cTpan B nocneRHee Bpemi (npHMepHo HaqHHaI C cepeRHHbi 80-x rOgOB) He

nPOBOaHJIOCb

KpoMe o6cneaOBaHH9 HacenJeHHA C uenlbIO BblICHeHHA CeMeHHbIX JaOXOaOB HIH noTpe6jieHHI4. HanHqHA CTeneHH B Toro, Me)CAy pa3JIHMHbIMH perlHOHaMH Ha6n1oaioTCA 3aMeTHbie pa3jiHqHA TaKHx AaHHbIX. PaCCMOTPHM, HanpHMep, OL]eHKH 6eAHOCTH AxIA pa3BHsaioigerocA MHpa, BbInOJIHeHHbie Aim oTqeTa OCHOBy 6bIJIH rlojio>KeHbl

World Development Report pe3ynJbTaTbI

o6cJIeAOBaHHH

OXBaTbIBaJIH TpH MeTBepTH HacenYeHHA Pa3BHBaiouHxcI

noJ]y4eHbl

3KCTpanOjiAIUHH

nyTem

3KOHOMHqeCKHX

coiAHaJIbHbix

1990

(World Bank, 1990b). B

AOMOX03MIiCTB

(Ravallion,

H4X

ARA 22 CTpaH (KOTOpble

CTpaH), a HeAocTaioMiHe

iierKOAOCTYnHbHX

HCnOjib3OBaHHCM

noKa3aTener

Datt and van

aaHHble 6biJiH

COBOKyXfHbIX

Walle,

1991).

HeTO'HOCTH

Pa3yMeeTc.q, 3TH 3KCTpanUOjiAuHH 6blnH HeTOMHb)MH. MO)KHO paccqiHTaTb, KaKaq aoni OuieHKe 6eAHOCTH B rio6oM perHoHe 6brJna BbI3B1aHa oIIH6KaMH 3KCTpanIOJIjUHH, B TOwqMHO OTPa)KaIOLUHMH TOqeqHbie

OTCYTCTBHe Heo6xoAHMbix QaHHbIX o6cjieAOBaHH4.

OLleHKH

AOBepHTejibHbH4

ARA

ABJIMouerHcsI Cjie,ACTBHeM qTO 3TOT HHTepBaB

Ka)KLoro

HHTepBail BoKpyr

perHoHa 3THX

pa3BHBaioruerocA

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Heo6XOjHMOCTM BbInOJIHeHHS

Ha PHCYHKe 13 flOKa3aHbl MHpa, H 95-npOueHTHbEI4

HcKMiOnHTeAbHO

HeTO qHOCTbIO,

TaKHX 3KCTpariOJIsHrHH. MO)KHO BHAeTE,

H3MeHAeTCI B IUHPOKHX npe,aeiax H ABnIAeTCx HaH6oJIee y3KHM giiq BOCTOMHOi

rae 4aKTHmeCKH Bce HaceneHne 6bino oxBw4eHo HeaaBHHM Bbi6OpO4HbIM o6cneAOBaHHeM, a HaH6ojiee HIHpOKHM - AxA paHOHOB A#PHKH IOAKHee Caxapbi, rge npH6nH3HTeabHo 90 HpOUeHTOB HacenefiHHA He 6b10o OXBa'eHO HeAaBHHM o6cneAoaaHHeM' 17. B caMoM Aene, HeCMOTPA Ha TO, 'ITO A3HM,

noriTH TO,qe'qHaX o1AeHKa HHAeKca 'iHcJIeHHOCTH 6e,4HbIX ARAx paHOHOB A4IPHKH Io)KHee Caxapbl CTOJb Ae BbLICOKa, KaK AJIA IO)KHOH A3HH (47 H4 51 npOU. COOTBeTCTBeHHO), AoBepHTeJIbHbIH HHTepBani AJIA par4oHoB A#PHKH Io)KHee Caxapbl IIPOCTHpaeTCA B UlHpOKHX npegeniax - OT 19 ,gO 76 IpoLi., Toraa KaK AnIA I)OKHoH A3HH OH ropa3go yKe - OT 50 AO 53 npo1i. Bonee Toro, ecJ1H B

I0)KHoHi A3H4 Ha6miiOAaeTCA CHHX(eHHe PaCTIPOCTPaHeHHOCTH a6cOnIoTHOH 6eAHOCTM, TO eCTb BCe OCHOBaHHX npeAnOnaraTb, qTO B paUoHax AXpHKe 1O)KHee Caxapbl 3TOT HOKa3aTejib B TYM1wem cJiy-qae He H3MeHAeTCA (World Bank, 1990b; Chen, Datt and Ravallion, 1992). BecbMa BepoATHo,

117 3Ta cHTyautA y)Ke HaHllHaeT yIy'LuaTbcm nio Mepe TOO, KaK CTaHOBA1TCA IaOCTYnHbIMH pe3yYibTaTbl pa3nHqHbIX o6cJiegoBaHtii, nPOBOAHMBIX B paMKaX pa3pa6OTaHHOro BCeMHpHbiM 6aHKOM npoeKTa "CouHajbHbIe acneKTll pe4OPM B paHioHax A4PHKH towHee Caxaphi". OIIHaKo aa)Ke 3TH o6cjiegoBaHHA, BH,IHMOMY, He OXBaTAT 6OJnBlTHHCTBO KpynHbIX cTpaH, TaKHIX KaK H4repHsl, CygaH 143(DHonHs.

no-

'TO B HaCTOAiuee BpeM5i Mbl MeHbWI1C BcerO 3HaeM pacrnpocTpaHeHHOcTb H rny6HHa HaH6onee BbICOKH.

O 6eRHoCTH

B TOH qaCTcT

cBeTa,

rge ee

Headcount Index (S)

70 60 50 -

30 20

10 0

S.Asla

S-S.Afr. 0

Mid-E./N.A

E.Asia

Lat.Am.

95% confid.interval

E.Eur.

TOTAL

Mean

PHCYHOK 13. Me7cperHOHaJnbHble Pa3JlHUHSl B TOMHOCTH OueHICH UHlAeKca '4HCjeHHOCTH 6elaHbtx. ,;OBepHTeJIbHbie HHTePBanJbl BoRpyr TOqeilHbIx oLIeHoK ROJH HacejieHnH B KawKaOM perHOHe, noTPe6rnXBIueA MeHee oAHoro iaonnapa B aeH6 B 1985 r. npH napHTeTe nOKyriaTejibHOH Cnoco6HocTu. 3TH aOBePHTeBjhEb1e HHTePBanJbI YtIHTbtBaIOT OIIIH6RH 3KCTPanOjiS1U{HH TOILbRO B TeX cIyLa x, WOraRa COOTBeTCTBYIOWue zaHamwe o6cne,aOBaHHA HemOCTynHmm. (IICTOYHUK: Ravallion, Datt and van de Walle, 1991.)

'lacTo Bo3HHKaeT BOrIpOC, cJieayeT hJH TOH HJTH HHOH pa3BHBaiolleHCA CTpaHe BKJIa,blBaTb

Cpe,gCTBa B rIpoBe.eHHe o6cJ1etOBaHHSI ROMOX03SIi1CTB. B HPuHHne OAHH H3 rlyTeH OTBeTa Ha 3TOT BOnPOC 3aKJIOqaeTCS B TOM, RTO6bi OueHHTb H3,aep)KKH H npeHMyi1eCTBa TaKHX aaHHbIX. O4HaKo eCIiH H3,Rep)KK4 OueHHTb JierKO, TO npeHMyLueCTBa - HeT. CyiAeCTByIoT KateCTBeHHbie BbirOAbl B nnIaHe cnoco6HocTHrnpaBHTeJIbCTBa, ynpaBnIsemoro HM Hapoja H WHpOKHX HayqHbIX KpyrOB KpHTH4eCKH, HO npH 3TOM CHCTeMHO OueCHHTb faKTHqeCKyIO HnHfnpeanaraeMyio nOnJiHTHKy, a TaK)Ke o6LutHiH nporpecc B pa3BHTHH CTpaHbi. rIPH OTCYTCTBHU npocnmsi CTpOHTb

npeAriojio)KeHH4

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3HaqeHHe npHAaeTcs 3THM BbiroiaaM Him, no cyTr O

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npOH3BeCTH aHHaiH3 3KOHoMHqecKoH

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aeeia, mo6o0

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nepHOaUHqeCKHM HaUHOHaJTbHO-npreacTaBHTenbHbIM )KH3HeHHoro YpOBHA HacefieHHA.

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"BOOpyxceHHOrO"

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3a OTHOCHTeCJbHO14 6eCHOCTb1o. Bonee TOrO, a6conIoTHoi 6eIHOCT14, TaK H npH Ha6nfoaeHHUX coo6paxKeH4iA KaCaTenjbHO OTHOC14Te31bHog HCSICHO Aaxce TO, pa3yMeH nH cnoco6 BKniO'leHHSA npH BbirOJ1HeHHH CpaBHHTeJlbHblIX oueHOK 6eaHOCT14 B CpaBHHTeC3bHY1O OUeHKy 6eAHoCT14. HepTy 6eAHOcT14 TOnbKO TaK1lM o6pa3oM, MTo6bl a6conloTHori 6eaiioCT1 cnelyeT KOppeKT14pOBaTb 3peHHA HCnOO3b3yeMOrO nOKa3aTens1 1KH3HeHHOrO OHa coxpaHAina nOCTOSHHOe 3HaMeHHe C TOMKH npH

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B TOM,

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onpegeneHHoro Ha6opa TOBapOB, ClinTa1ouieroCs rapaHTHpOBaTb

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6 HepT 6eaHOCTH o blHHO MBJ]AeTCS yqCT npaKTHKe OCHOBHbIM HCTO'HHKOM H3MeHeHHr4

143 UIUHpOKO pacrpOCTpaHeHHbIX HenpO,aOBO3bCTBeHHE1X TOBapOB. OaHH

MeTOJ,OB 3aKJlOlOaeTCS

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100

Jlyxquie, Ha MOH B3rn3,9,

o6ecne'1HBaioueiie

BHaqane

yAOBjieTBopeHHe

onpegeJIHTb CTOHMOCTb HpOJOBOIbCTBeHHOiH KOp3HHbl,

CpeaHHX

nHUiieBbix

COrFJaCyIOELIHMCA C COCTaBOM npeBaJIHPYFOWHX paiI4HOHOB

noTpe6HOcTerl

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HenpoRoBojlbCTBeHHbIX yXyT npOH3BOaHTb KaKHe-JIH6o pacXoAJbI Ha npHo6peTeHHe

104

TOBapOB. JIyqlIHM nOKa3aTenjeM

OCHOBHbIX HCepOAOBOJTECTBeHHbIX

paCXOaOB ABJSAeTCS o6feM ceMeH, CnOCo6Hblx YAOBjieTBOPHTb CBOH nHUleBhIe noTpe6HocTH, HO npeAniOqHTaIOIUi4X He aeenaTb 3Toro. Pa3yMeeTcs, HeKOTOpLie CeMbH MOryT TpaThrb Ha HenpOROBOJIbCTBeHHbie TOBapbl BeCbMa KpynHbMe CyMMbI geHer naawe HeCMOTpS Ha

3aTpaT

Ha HenpOXOBOJ1bCTBeHHbie

HenoJInHoe BCe

YAOBneTBopeHHe

TaKHe

CeMbH

KaK

TOBapb1

CBOHX nHIIeBbIX noTpe6HocTeri. BoBce Heo6Si3aTeJIbHo onpeaexmTb KpoMe Toro, npH Juo6oM 3aaaHHOM 6lojweTe 6yRyT

"6eRHbme".

Ha6nloAaTbCS

HeKOTOpbIe pa3JHqHS B CTPYKType pacXoRoB - HanpHMep, pa3HdHS, BhI3BaHHbie npH oLueHKe HnH CJIy4aHHbIMH pa3WIMHAMH BO BKyCaX. Y4HTbMBaS 3Ty HeO.aHOpOiaHOCTb, 6buro 6bl pa3yMHee 3aaaTbCAS cjieqytoMLHM BOnpOCoM: KaKOBa THrH'4qHaA BeiJH4HHa HeFlpOAOBOJIbCTBeHHbIX pacXO,IOB CeMbH, KOTOpaS eaea B COCTOSHHH Y.2OBjTCTBOpHTb CBOH HpO,lOBOJbCTBeHHbie noTpe6HOCTH? lIoCKoJIbKy HeipOROBOnbCTBeHHbie TOBapbl ABJIAIOTCS3 o6blqHbIMH TOBapaMH, .3Ta BeIiHqHHa 6yaeT TalKCe paBHITbCS HaHHH31leMy YpOBHIO HenpO,AOBOflbCTBeHHbIX paCXOAOB AAS ceMerH, cnoco6Hblx npHo6peCTH OCHOBHOHl Ha6op oLuH6KaMH

npO,OBO,bCTBeHHbIX

TOBapOB.

fIo3ToMy

ee MO)KHO CeHTaTb MUHuMa7bHublM yqeTOM cornacyiouiHMCs C yqeTOM OCHOBHbiX npOOBOBlbCTBeHHbIX TOBapOB. TaKHM o6pa3oM, 3Ty BeJiHqHHy MOiKHO CqHTaTb pa3yMHOH HHXCHeH rpaHHLueH MepTbi 6e,aHOCTH H o6o3HaqaTb ee KaK zL. Her1pOXaOBORbCTBeHHbIX

TOBapOB,

AaHHoe onpejieneHHe JierKOIOCTYnHbIX gaHHbIX.

qacTO

MoIKeT 6bITb 6e3 Tpyqa peaj]H3oBaHo nyTeM HCHOnTb3OBaHHS

q-TO6bi

lIpOHnJIlOCTpHPOBaTb

3TO, ripeanlOJnOxcHM, wTO yBeniHMeHHeM CyMMapHbIX pacxoAOB npH KpyTH3He,KOTOpaS MeHbiue eHHHLMbl, H yMeHbUlllaioeHCA no mepe pocTa CyMMapHbMX paCXOaOB, KaK HOKa3aHO Ha PHCyHKe 14. (3ToT rpa4HK MOSKHO paccMaTpHBaTb KaK nHHHIO perpeccHH, Aaioiuyio o)KHaaeMoe 3Ham HHe HpOAOBOJTbCTBeHHbIX paCXOaOB npH JIo 6 OM 3agaHHOM 3HaqeHHH CyMMapHl1X paCXOXOB.) rlpeanono)KHM TaK)Ke, qTO Cy1iieCTByeT HeKOe eaHHCTBeHHOe 3HaqeHHe o6beMa pacXOOB, Heo6xogHMoe AS yLIOBJIeTBopeHHS nHweBbEX noTpe6HOCTeii, KoTopoe o6o3Ha'IeHo Ha PHCYHKe 14 KaK npogoBoJTECTBeHHaS KOMnOHeHTa 'epTbi 6eIHocTH ZF. AAA ceMeri, cnoco6Hblx yaOBJIeTBOpSTb CBOH HHmweBbie noTpe6HOcTH (npH cyeCCTByIou1HX BKyCax), caMbIH HH3KHH YPOBeHb HenlpO,OBOJlbCTBeHHbiX pacxojiOB onpeAeJlAeTCA KaK paCCTOAHHe NF Ha PHCyHKe 14, IOJIHOCTbMO 3aMeffaioiIee OCHOBHble IP0OBOJ1bCTBeHHbie pacXOAbi. B 3TOM cjly'ae 3TO paCCTOSHHe ABJISeTCS OCHOBHbIM YPOBHeM HenpO,OBOJIbCTBeHHbMX paCXOAOB. Torga COBoKynHaS qepTa 6eHuocTH 6yqeT onpegenaTbcC KaK ZL (KOMnOHeHT, COOTBeTCTBYIOLIiHH OCHOBHblM npO.OBOJIbCTBeHHbIM pacxoaaaM, nmuoc NF). BcJIHqHHy NF yao6Ho oueHHBaTb cneglyioUHM o6pa3oM. gIA Haqaaia Mbl Mo)KeM HcnOJb3OBaT3b ( YHKUHIO cupoca Ha npOJROBOJTbCTBeHHbie TOBapbl, npe1CTaBBJISOUPYIO co6orl aomioo npOQfyKTOB nHTaHHS B BHge RHHeRHOH 4YHKIHH 3HaMeHHA CyMMapHbIX pacXOaOB (CyMMbE1 npOROBOJIbCTBeHHbIX H Her1pOaOBOJIbCTBeHHbix pacXOIOB) no OTHOileHHiO K 11PO,4OBOJIbCTBeHHOMY KOMn1OHeHTY 4epTbI 6e,aHOCTH. (MO)KHO TaKACe BKnJIOHTb B paccMoTpCHHe H apyrHe nepeMeHHble, TaKHe KaK JaeMOFpa4lH'eCKHe XapaKTepHCTHKH CCMbH, XOTS3 B gaHHOM nipHmepe A 6yiy HrHOPHPOBaTb HX). ZlnA i-H CeMbH: npOaOBOnbCTBeHHbie

pacxOabl

rae si

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aoJI3S npOrOBOJ1bCTBeHHbIX paCXOAOB B CyMMapHbiX pacxoaax xj, ZF - npOAOBOflbCTBeHHaq a cx Hr - oueHHBaeMbie napaMeTpb. BeJTHqHHa ax OUeHHBaeT CpeLHKO)o ,iOIIO HPOAOBOJbCTBeHHbIX paCXOaOB B CyMMapHbIX pacxogax Tex ,OMOX03AIiCTB, KOTOpbie eaBa MOryT -

qepTa 6eUHOCTH,

105

T. e. ceMei, no3BoRHTb ce6e paCXoAb1 Ha YPOBHe npOAOBOJEbCTBeHHOrU 'epTbI 6eRHOCTH, 4opMynorl: cneAyioweii onpeAensAeTcs KOTOpblX xi = zF1 18. HHUsHAA iepTa 6e.HOcTH

ZL = zF.(2 - a), lepTbi 'acTH T. e. 'ep'ra 6eAHocTu nonyqaeTcs nyTeM CaBsura npOAOBOJ1bcTBeHHor4 HenpOAOBOJ1bCTBeHHbIX 6e2IHOCTH BBePX Ha pacCTOSHHe, onpegenseMoe OLxeHO4HOH AojieH 6eRHoCTH. 4epTe paCxOAOB npu yKa3aHHOA nIpOROBOnbCTBeHHOr Pa3agen 2.4). Bcer,aa Luenecoo6pa3Ho paccMaTpHBaTb 6o0nee OAHOU qepTbi 6eAHocTH (CM. 3aKjuoHaeTcS B TOM, AIbTepHaTHBHbEA noAxoa, qatouAuH 6o0iee "ujeapyto" tepTy 6eAHHocT4, cpeAH TeX, KTO pacxoaoB MTo6bI 3agaThbcI BOTIpOCOM: KaKOB YPOBeHb HenpOAOBOJbCTBeHHbIX

KTO MoAKeT ce6e no3eOJUMb 0caKmu1ecKu aOCTTHr npoZIoBOJIbCTBeHHorI MepTbi 6e&Hocmu (a He TeX, Ha PHCyHKe 14 3TO JIHUb flyTeM COKpalueHHSI BCeX CBOHX HenpOAOBO3IbCTBeHHbMX paCXOAOB)? y'eToM pa3yMH6Mm MaKC4ManbHHbIM 3TOMY YPOBHIO cooTBeTcTByeT N*F*. 3To MO)KHO cMHTaTh ygOBfleTBOPHTb CMor KTO Te, OCHOBHbIX HenPOJOBOJIbCTBeHHbIX nOTpe6HOCTerl, npeAnoJIaraA, MTO iToTpe6HOCTH, CMOrYT TaKKe YAOBJIeTBOPHTb H CBOH OCHOBHbIe

CBOH HpOrIOBOJIbCTBeHHbie

paBHAeTCS zU. HenpOXOBojibcTBeHHbie nooTpe6HocTH. Torja BepxHAq mepTa 6eHocTTu ABJIASeTCS HeCKOJIbKO PacHeT 3TOU BejiU4'IHHbl Ha OCHOBaHHi Bbi6ileyKa3aHHOr4 perpeccH MeTOabi. rlycTb s* 6o0nee TpyAHHbIM, TaK KaK 3XaeCb Heo6xoAUMo HcnoJTb3OBaTb 'i4CjieHHbie 3TU pacxogbl KOTOpOU B TO4Ke, B oAHiAaeMoe 3Ha'{eHHe AOJIH npOgoBojibCTBeHHElX pacxoROB lepTa 6eRHHocT4 - 3TO He 'ITO PaBHAHOTCA HpOXoBojibcTBeHHOri HepTe 6egHocTu. Torga BepxHARS

HHOe KaK ZU = zF/S*. BeJuIHqHHa s* onpeaeJIAeTCs H3 c3ieqyioWero ypaBHeHH4A:

s* = (X+llog(IS.*)

isg s*: * np6i6n-KeHHe AnnpOKCHMHPYS log(s*) 3Ha4eHHeM (s* - 1), MOAKHO nOfly4HTb nepBoe O1xeHKy TO-HylO 6onee nonymiHTb TorAa c noMoLAb1o MeTOXa H]6lOTOHa MO)KHO + = (a +

03/(1

0).

S*; npu4 OTC'eTe OT

t = I OleHKa s* npH t-u HTepaLumH

6ygeT onpeaeJASTbCS

ciegywoiIIHM

Bblpa)KeHHeM:

St = Sti

(St-, +1 log(st- 1 ) -

Ko34MFHueHT B

118 3To xce yTBep)ieHHe 6ygeT cnpaBe.anHBo H B TOM cJyqae, ecniH BBecTH AOnOJIHHTejIbHELd rio,rOHKy no, KBa,gpaT 3HatieHHI log(xi/zF), qTO, BepOATHO, nO3BOJIHT npOH3BeCTH 6onee TOqHYIO cnpoca Ha npoAyKT6i 3JiaCTHqHOCTE AOXOaHaA qTo6bi gOrHyCKaeTCa, 3TOM nIpH KaK HMetoitHecA AaHHlIe, TaK

aaHHaA cneltH4)HKaIHA Mo)KeT 6brrb nHTaHHR npeabinuana eJaHHHUy npH MaJibIX 3Ha1teHHSIX x; TaKHM o6pa3oM, JIHHiTOHOM (Lipton, 1983) H UpeAnOwKeHHO1 oIeHKH- qepTli 6exHoCTH, An5i TaK2Ke HCnIoJb3OBaHa

paccMaTpHBaBuIeACa B Pa3Aejie 2.4.

106

,4aHHbIl anropHTM XAOJIO

AOflMceH HMeTE 6biCTpyIo CXO,AHMOCTb. Aejsl qepTy nPO,4OBOAbCTBeHHElX paCXOLIOB, noxzyqaem qepTy 6eaHHocTH, npH

eaHOCTH Ha oueHOMHyIO

KOTOpoi qeenOBeK O6bIqHO yAOBneTBopAeT CBOiO noTpe6HocTb B OCHOBHbIX npoaOBOJnbCTBeHHblX TOBapax.

food spending rN

total spending

PHCYHOIC 14. OnpegeneHHe HeUpOJOBOJIEbCTBeHHOrO ICOMHOHeHTa sepTbI 6eRHoCTH. Ha P1CYHKe noKa3aHo CTHJIH3OBaHHoe COOTHOlueHHe Me)Kay npOIOBOhIbCTBeHHbIMH H CyMMapHlIMH pacxoaaMH. HHwH(HA qepm 6eAHOCTH (ZL) onpeAeIAeTcs KaK CyMMa npoaoBojbCTBeHHOrI qepTbw 6eaHocTH (zF) H HenpowoBombcTBeHHMIX pacXOROB ceMeg, KOTOpb[e eaBa CnOCo6HbE BwlITH Ha ypOBeHb zF. BepxHAi UepTa 6e,AHOCTH (zu) onpeaenAeTcAs KaK YPOBeHb cyMMapHbix paCXOROB, npH KOTOPOM 4aKm'mecKHA4 o6feM pacxoXRoB ceMbH Ha npoayKTbi nHTaHHA paBHAeTCa ZF.

TaKHM o6pa3oM, MOKHO npeAnowO2KHTb ABe qepTbi 6eflHocTH: HH)KHIOIO, o6eCne4HBaiOuwO MHHHMaibHbli

yMeT

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(npe,aCTaBRnlOUL.HA

co6OH

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HenpO,1OBOJTbCTBeHHbie pacXOBbl Tex, KTO eABa Mo)KeT no36oJ1UMb ce6e YtROBYIeTBOpHTb CBOH npO,aOBOnbCTBeHHbie nOTpe6HOcTH), H BepxHiofo, o6ecne4HBatouyio 6o0iee "LuexpbIn" y4eT HenpOAOBOnbCTBeHHbIX

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pacxogbi TeX, KTO eaBay6oOBlem6Opqem CBOU npOnOBOJ1bCTBeHHble nOTpe6HOcTH).

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2.4),

OT MeTOIaa yaejibHoro Beca npO,YRKTOB niTaHHA HunH MeTOZaa nHWUeBOH 3HeprHH BeCbMa BepORTHO, HTO PaCCMaTPHBaeMbie MeTOAbi nO3BOJSIT nORYIqHTb

COCTOATeJlbHbie CpaBHHTenJbHbie OLjeHKH 6eAHOCTU npuf YCJIOBHH ux nptmeHeHHH pa32aeIbHO =AfS Ka*,oro ceKTOpa, perHOHa HiUH gaTbi. (TaK, U-To6bi napaMeTpbl a H p B pa3HbiX CpaBHHBaeMbEX CHTyaJHAX OTJ]H'IaJHCb.) 3To oqeBHaHO B ciiyqae HcHojib3OBaHHS

MeTogaa yaeJIbHoro seca nPOAYKTOB nHTaHHS, nOCKOnbKy (no CyTH ,aena) npH 3TOM oJInS npOLAOBOYIbCTBeHHblX pacxoxaoB "o'IIH4uaeTCS" OT KOppeJIALtHH C peanbHblM noTpe6feHHeM Hun JaoXOaaMH. B cny'ae MeTo,aa riHujeBOji 3HeprHH yCTpaHAeTCA TO, ITO npeAnOJlO)*(TeJIbHO 5IBJIReTCA BawHeiuwHM HCTO'HHKOM 107

6onee 6oraTblx paHiOHaX HnH B 6onee "6oraTble" nlpHBegXeHHOM B MoMeHThI BpeMeHH (HanpHMep, rOpO,aCKme ceMbH B 14iHoHe3HH B npHMepe, Pa3gene 3.3) CKJIOHHbl InOKynlaTE 6onee aoporocToWHe npogyicTbi nHTaHHq. cMeUleHHS, a HMeHHO TOT caKT,

HTO

CeMbH

np14MepbI pa3j4H4Hb6X MeToAoB onpegeneHHA qepT H 3.3. rlepBbIH H3 HUX 6e,RHOCTH, o6cyxcAaBIluHxcA B HaCTOSHweM npHJio)KeHHH H B Pa3aenax 2.4 BPS HCIIOJiL3OBaHHOrO 3HeprHH, npegcTaBuiAeT co6orl OAHy H3 pa3HOB4,RHOCTeri MeTola nHweBOH

B Ta6rniule

11 npecTaBfleHbl

(1992) U paccmoTpeHHOrO

B Pa3,aeue

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YPOBHeM pacXojRoB, npH4 KOTOpOM KaTiOpHHi Ha qeJIoBeKa B IqeHb o6EIHHO

OH onpegensAeTcs

cpegHAA noTpe6HOCTb B nHiiAeBOr4 3HeprHH B pa3mepe 2100 1992 r.). Cue)oM 3a HUM HieT yXOBJ1eTBOpMeTCS B KaACAOM ceKTope (no qaHHbiM BPS 3a ceKTope npOXROBOAbCTBeHHaA qepTa 6eAHocTH, 3agaBaeMaS cpeAHeH CTOHMOCTbIO B KaxCOM TOBapOB, ipOJAOBOJ1bCTBeHHbIX Ha6opa 3HatieHHM no BCeM 26 npOBHHUHAM) (cpe,aHHM

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B ce6s cpeaHIo0o noTpe6HocTE B nHu.AeBO

3HeprHH TaKHM o6pa3oM, 'ITo6E

3TO

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3TO npOAOBOJ1bCTBeHHa1

qepTbi 6enHOcTH nfifioc pacxo,abl Ha YAOBjieTBOpeHHe OCHOBHbIX HeCHPOOBOJIbCTBCHHbIX Mo)KeT nO3BOJIHTh ce6e noTpe6HocTeR (THnHUHbie HenpOXROBOJIbCTBeHHbie paCxo,qbl TeX, KTO eaBa

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Ha YPOBHe npoROBoJIbCTBeHHOH paCXO,bl, npIH KOTOPhIX CeMbA o6bI'HO

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1 3HePFHH (no AOJIH flnpOOBO1bCTBeHHbIX pacXo,oB 19, MO)KHO BHgeTb, MTO MeToa nlHUeBOA XOTS CeKTope, AaHHbIM BPS 3a 1992 r.) ,aeT 6onee BbICOKHe noKa3aT'enH 6eRHocTH B rOpogCKOM no BCeH 6eaHoCTr, (KaK 6buIo OTMemeHO B Pa3,aenax 2.4 H 3.3) TaKas CpaBHHTeJlbHaA oueHKa

3HaHeHHe HepTbl 6egHOCTH BpsqI BepOSTHOCTH, BegeT K HeBepHbIM BbIBOgaM, nOCKOJTbKy peainbHoe

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AjibTepHaTHBHbIe o1eHicH noia3aTeJleH 6etHOCTH JAJIH FOpORCICHX H CeJI6CKHX

paiOHOB IHIJoHe3HH B 1990

MeTog onpeaenieHHA 'epTi

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13295 14,33

3,23

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0,94 14043

0,53 12581

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tlepTa 6eaHocTH (pyrnIHi Ha

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B Mec.)

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0,35

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0,37

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24,55

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17292

(%)

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4HJAeKc rJly6HHbi 6e)HOCTU

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(%)

100)

T4epTa 6eJ4HOCTH (pynulul

(zU Ha PHCyHKe 14) lHwaeKc

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and Ravallion (1992), jInA MeTOaOB 3 H 4

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Ha pa6oTe Bidani

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109

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F(y)= Jf(x)dx,

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rge f(x) - BepORTHOCTb Ha6Juo1eHHs HH)AHKaTopa CBeJIHqHHOH x. (3aMem4M, fIycTE

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Pa(Z)=

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o0lHCaHHbie B Pa3gene 2.5 noKa3aTeniH nepen4caTEb B cJiegytoueM BHqe:

6eaHocTH, Torga

(DocTepa-TpHpa-TopH6eKe

HTO

J(1i

F'(y) = f(y).) 6eAHOCTH

K.nacca

f(x)dx,

rxe a 3TOH

HeOTpHuaTejibHbLH napaMeTp. Torga HHgeKC MHCJ1eHHOCTb

6eqHxIX H(z) HaXOHTCSI H3 1=Bbipa)KeHHe (A2)

4lOpMyJIlb llpH a = 0. TaKHM o6pa3oM, H(z) = Po(z) = F(z). Hpm a

npeo6pa3yeTcA B 4opMyny VAb pacleTa 1HAeKca r.1y614Hbl 6eqHocTH PG(z), a npH 4opMyJIy nsI pacmeTa 'yBCTBHTeJTbHoro K pacnpeaeneeHHo nOKa3aTenJH P2(z).

a = 2

PacCMOTPHM Tenepb cnyiar4, Kor.nla qepTa 6eRHocTH Z HMeeT He eqHHcTBeHHoe 3HaeHHe, IHpOKOM aOXYCTHMOM JUafa3HHe 3HaHeHHri OT 0 xo zmax. Kpu6aa a ne)KHT B MaKCHMan]BHO pacnpocmpaueunocmu 6eoHocmu onpeqensqeTCA tIPOCTO 3HaIeHHAMH 4byHKILH KyMyJsITHBHoro KPHBaA o6pa3oM, TaKIKM 14HTepBaIie; HOPMaTHBHOM AaHHOM B pacnpexeneHHs pacnpocTpaHeHHoeTH 6egHOCTH npeACTaBBAeT co6ori 4YHKLHtO F(z) npH 3HaueHHH z,

M3MeHMtoIeMCS

B npeieniax OT

0 ao zma.

TO'HKH Ha KPHBOH paenpOCTpaHeHHOCTH 6eAHocTH

CMHTaT]6 HenocpeRCTBeHHo 3HaueHHAlMH HHAeKCa HiHCnieHHOCTH 6exHbIx. CpaBHHBaq pacnpexqeneieHsi A H B npH FA(z), newameR Bblline FB(z) BO BCeX TOqKax Ao to zmax (KaK A nOKa3aHO Ha PHcyHKe 4a), HaXOqHM, xITO HHaeKc 1i4cjieHHOCTH 6eaHbix aji1 pacnpeqeneHH3t TaloKe ,aoflAKeH 6blTb BbILe He3aBHCHMO OT qepTbi 6eaHoCTH. 3TO BO MHOrOM O'IeBH4aHO. Ho, KaK 6ygeT pa3'bSCHeHo H1c)Ke, KpHBbie paCnpocTpaHCHHOCTH 6eAHOCTU MOFYT TaK)Ke BbIABJIATb paHXKHPOBaHHS ARA noKa3aTeneH 6eAHocTH 6onee BbICOKoro HOpSAKa; HanpHMep, eciH FA(z) > MOKHO

FB(z) rIpH BceX

3Ha'eHHAX

Z AO

zmax, TO lpH BCeX 3HaxeHHSIX

COCTOSHHe

A 6ygeT

CM., B aciiTHocTH, Atkinson (1987) H Foster and Shorrocks (1988a,b). apyrHe noJIe3Hbie paccyKAeHHq MO)KHO HarlTH B pa6oTax Lambert (1989) 11 Howes (1992).

120

110

xaparePH3OBaTTCA

6o0nee

BbECOKOH 6eCHoCTE,1o,

qepTbi HnH qepT 6eAHocTH (B npegeniax

-iM COCTOSiHHe B He3aBHCHMO

OT YCTaHOBJiCHHOH

jaHHOrO Kiiacca noma3aTeneeH).

Kawga3l TOMKa Ha KpU6OU i beeuyuma 6ebuocmu onpeaeRAeTcs Bblpa>KeHHeM: z

(A3)

D(z) = J(z - x)f(x)dx, 0

a cama 3Ta KPHBaS nony-aeTcA riocTpoeHHeM TOqeK zmax. HHTerpHpyA Bbipa)KeHHe (A3) no 'aCTSM, Ae¢HuHTa 6eaHocTH CJ1e,yiOUaHM o6pa3oM:

D(z) fpH 3HaqeHHH z, H3MeHAHOiIeMCS OT 0 xO MO)KHO

nepenHcaTb ypaBHeHHIe

ARS

KpHBOH

(A4)

D(z)= fF(x)dx, 0

TaK 'ITO KPHByio D(z) pa3JIHqHbIX 6eRHocTH

MOXCHO nOjiymHTb KaK MHocKecTBo 3HaqeHHH

KaK HOKa3aHO

MOKHO

paCC'HTaTb

PHCyHKe

4b.

4HHAeKC

HenocpegCTBCHHO

ruAoLUaJH nOf KpHBoH F(z) npH rny6HHEi 6e,HocTH ipuH muo6or4 qepTe

nO TOqKaM Ha KpHBOH

ge.(HUHTa

6eAHOCTH,

llCfOJlb3yA TOT 4aKT, wTo (KaK cneAyeT 113 (A2)):

(AS)

PG(z) =- D(z)

OTKy.a TaK)Ke CTaHOBHTCS MCHbIM, qTO ynopAAoqeHHs4 pacipeaejieHHH no KpHBbIM Aeq)HU4HTa 6e,aHocTH 6yAyT HgeHTH'IH6MH ynOpAl4OqeHHAIM, OCHOBaHHbEM Ha HHAeKCe pa3p6lBa 6e,HocTH; ecIiH DA(z) > DB(z) npH Bcex z Lgo zmax (KaK HOKa3aHO Ha PHCyHKe 5b), TO, o'eBH;XHO, aO1)KHO TaloKe

BbIrHlOJTbCA

HepaBeHCTBO

PGA(z)

PGB(z). KaK

BCKope

CTaHeT

SCHbIM,

KPHBaS

,aec1HL1HTa 6egHocTH Mo2KeT TaKwKe BbIABHTb YnOpSUAoMeHHA 6eAHocTH no noKa3aTeniim 6onee

BbIlCOKOrO nopsAKa (npHea> 1). YpaBHeHHe 6jTarococTosHHA

(A5) TaKwKe gaeT ripocTyio 4OpMyJIy

gZ H3 BCeX

noKa3aTenieH

AnSA

6jIarocOCTOSHHA

pac'eTa cpeaHero noKa3aTeIsl 3HameHHAMH,

MeHEIIHMH

z, a

HMeHHO:

pZ(z)

D(z)

AHanOrWIHu6BM o6pa3oM Cpe,HHii )KH3HeHHE64 ypOBeHI, 6eqme4iuHX p npOIeHTOB HaceJIeHHA, Jip, onpeensAeTcsA npOCTO KaK:

p(P) = Y - D(y) p rge y = F-l(p) -

HHBepCHaS

>KH3HeHHbIH YpOBeH6 HH)Ke

4yHKUHA, COOTBeTCTBy1OIIiaA F(y) (T. e.

F-l(p)).

111

OJIAS p Hacenieuisi

HMeeT

O6o6zqennyio KpU6yo f7openzia GL(p) MOwKHO onHCaTb cfeqyiomiHM BbIpa)KeHHeM:

GL(p) = |F'(t)dt,

(A6)

KOTOpOe TaIaKC MO)KHO nepenHCaTb B cneAyiouieM BHie:

GL(p) = jiL(p), rge

L(p)= P- P I-I KPHBYiO JIOpeHLLa (zoJuo OT arperHpOBaHHOrO 3HatIeHHS Y, npHXOi4IoiUyiOC3 Ha 6eAHeAuIO goiZno p OT HaceJIeHHq). TaKHM o6pa3oM, o6o6uxeHHas KPHBaS JIopeHLIa - 3TO He mTo HHoe, KaK o6bPlHaA KPHBaA JlopeHUa, CABHHyTaM BBePX Ha cpeAHee KaK cJiegyeT H3 BbipaBceHHR (A6), GL'(p) = F-l(p) HiiH (qTo 3HaqeHHe. 3aMeTHM TaKoKe, L (p) 3KBHBaJeHTHO BbHiieyKa3aHHOMY BbIpaxKeHHIO) y/p = L'(p) ('iTo TaKwe nOApa3yMeBaeT, 'TO

npe,acTaBjisIe'r co6o0H

o6bi6nHyio

iro,

= 1/(ptf(y)) > 0).

TaKHM

o6pa3oM,

KpYTH3Ha o6o6iixeHHOi

qHCjieHHOCTH 6eH6HbIX COOTBeTCTByeT

CpaBHsBaA

qepTe

Bb1ipaKeHHA (A4)

KpHBOH

JlopeHnla

B TOqKe HHAeKCa

6CeHOCTH.

(A6),

MO)KHO

JIerKo

nOHSTh,

nomeMy

PaH)KHPOBaHHe

nOjiHbIX pacnpeAej]eHHH no KPHBbIM Ae4HUHTa 6eAHOCTH B TOIHOCTH o6paTHo Hx paHXKHPOBaHHiO no o6o6uAeHHbIx KPHBbIM JlopeHua; nepBoe OCHOBEIBaeTCA Ha fljio1gaqAX nOg rpa4HKOM F(y), a OzHaKo AAS zmax < ymaX npH Hcnojib3OBaHHH rOCKOJIbKy pa3Hbie KpHBbie 6ygyT HMeTb CJIO)KHOCTH, o6o6iueHHoA KpHBOH4 JlopeH1Aa BO3HHKaIOT pa3JIHtIHbIe BepXHHC rpaHHL4bI rlpH OAHOA H TOH wKe 'epTe 6eAHocTH. KpoMe TOrO, B03MOXKHOCTb onpeAeneHHA HHAeKca pa3pElBa 6eAHocTH no KpHBoHi D(z) AenaeT ee B 3THX

BTOpOe

Ha nnom4aAAx no,

rpa4,HKOM

F-l(p).

HenocpegcTBeHHoro

yCJIOBHSX 6onee eCTeCTBeHHblIM Bbi6opoM.

IlycTb CHOBa Z H3MeHReTcS B npeAejiax OT

0 AO zmaX, TorAa Kpueax oCmpombi 6e)Hocmu

6y,eT onpeAeiiATEcsi CieAEIOIHM BblpamKeHi4eM: z

(A7)

S(z)= f(z - x)F(x)dx, 0

KOTOpoe MO)KHO TaloKe nepenHcaTb KaK z

(A8)

S(z)= fD(x)dx, 0

(HHTerpHpyM (A7) no qacTSM). TOHKH Ha KpHBOH OCTPOTbi 6eAHocTH MOryT 6blTE Hcflonib3OBaHbI aAA onpe.eneiieHH noKa3aTensi 6eHocTH P 2 6sxaroAaps TOMY, 'ITO:

112

2S(z) P2(Z) = 4TO (no aHJa1orHH c F(z) H D(z)) cpa3y xe noKa3biBaeT, noxiemy npHMeHHTenJ1HO K KpHBEIM OCTpOTbi 6eXlHOCTH ARAT paH)KHpOBaHU4A pacnpeaejieHHu rio P2 MooKeT HcnOJTE3OBaTbCsA npoBepKa Bbi6nOJ1HeHHA yCJIOBHi AOMHHaHTHOCTH.

CpaBHHBasl BbipaweHHA (A4) H (A8), MOXCHO BHeTE, qTO Bce TpH KPHBbie - F(z), D(z) H S(z) - HOCSTT "rHe3goBoW' xapaKTep B TOM cMBicJIe, '4TO S(z) sIBnseTCsA nOuWamb1O fOA KpHBOii D(z), KOTOpaSI, B CBOIO oxiepe)lb, ABjiAeTCsA nnouoaATbio noA KpHBOH F(z), KaK nOKa3aHO Ha PHCYHKe 4. no HAee, eCnH KPHBaS pacnpocTpaHeHHocTH 6egHOCTH ajsi pacnpeejieneHH A nonHocTbio ne)KHT Bbflue KpHBOH pacnpocTpaHeHHOCTH 6eaHocTH AIsl pacnpeAeneHHAs B, TO TaKOe xce B3aHMHOe pacnoJIoxceHHe 6yAyT HMeTb H KPHBbie ae4¢HuHTa 6eaHocTH, H KPHBbIe OCTpOThI 6e,HOCTH iIA pacnpeJAeneHHri A H B. AHanOTH'IHMM o6pa3oM, ecJIH KpHBaslAae4HUHTa 6eAHoCTH

zu'A pacnpegeiieHHA A pacnono,KeHa BbIlue KpHBOA Ae4HuHTa 6eAHOCTH An. pac pe eneHHA B, TO TaKoe we B3aHMHoe pacHnooeHHe 6 yxIyT HMeTb H HX KpHBi6ie OCTpOTbi 6eRHOCTH. (O,HaKo o6paTHble YTBepxoKeHHSI HeBepHMI; HailpHMep, KpHBaSI OCTpOTbi 6eaHHocT4 WAu pacnpeae.neHHA A MOWeT BO BCeX TOMxKaX JieKaTb BBEle KpHBOH OCTpOTbI 6elHocTH Asl pacnpeAeneHHq B H, TeM He MeHee, H4X KpHBbITe pacpocTpaHeHHOCTH HJIH rjiy6HHbi 6eAHOCTH MOryT nepeceKaTbCAI.) TaKHM o6pa3oM, OaHO3HaqHoe paH)KHpoBaHie pacnpexeYieHHH ro noKa3aTeIslM 6eQHocTH Pa npH Bcex qepTax 6eJIHocTH BnnOTb o ZMaX aOJ)KHO TaKoKe nogpa3yMeBaTb H O,4HO3HaqHOe paHSHpOBaHHe AIAS Bcex 6onee BECOKHX 3Ha'eHHrH a B TOM )Kea4Hana3OHeqepT 6eaHocTH. C He3HaxiHTejibHbIMH BHAOH3MeHeHHSAMH OCHOBHEie yKa3aHHbie BBIme pe3yzbTaTEr pacnpocTpaHA$oTcSI H Ha ApyrHe aAHTHBHBMe rOKa3aTeJIH 6eAHocTH, He BXOAJSIHC B KIacc tDocTepa-FpHpa-TopH6eKa.

113

En6JInorpa4msi

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127

LSMS Working Papers AUTHOR

TITLE

No. 1

Living Standards Surveys in Developing Countries

Chander/Grootaert/Pyatt

Poverty andLiving Standardsin Asia: An Overview of the Main Results and Lessons of Selected Household Surveys Measuring Levels of Living in La0n America: An Overview of Main Problems

Visaria

Towards More Effec0tve Measurement of Levels of Living, and Review of Work of the United Natons Sta0stical Office (UNSO) Related to Statstics of Level of Living

Scottlde Andre/Chander

Conducting Surveys in Developing Countries: Practcal Problems and Experience in Brazd, Malaysia, and The PhNippines Household Survey Experience in Aftica

Measurement of Welfare: Theory and Practcal Guidelines

Deaton

Employment Data for the Measurement of Living Standards

Mehran

Income and Expenditure Surveys in Developing Countries: Sample Design and Execution

Wahab

Reflectons of the LSMS Group Meetng

Saunders/Grootaert

Three Essays on a Sri Lanka Household Survey

Deaton

Musgrove

The ECIEL Study of Household Income and Consumpton in Urban Latin America: An Analytical History Nutition and Health Status Indicators: Suggestions for Surveys of the Standard of Uving in Developing Countries Chdd Schooling and the Measurement of Living Standards

Measuring Health as a Component of Living Standards

Procedures for Colectng and Analyzing Mortalty Data in LSMS

SullivanlCochrane/Kalsbeek

The Labor Market and Social Accountng: A Framework of Data Presenta0on

Grootaert

Time Use Data and the Living Standards Measurement Study

Acharya

Grootaert

The Conceptual Basis of Measures of Household Welfare and Their Impled Surveys Data Requirements Statstical Experimentaton for Household Surveys: Two Case Studies of Hong Kong

The Coiecton of Ptice Data for the Measurement of Living Standards

Wood/Knight

Household Expenditure Surveys: Some Methodological Issues

GrootwerCheung

CoDlec0ng Panel Data in Developing Countries: Does It Make Sense?

AshenfelterlDeaton/Solon

Measuring and Analyzing Levels of Living in Developing Countries: An Annotated Questonnaire

Grootaert

The Demand for Urban Housing in the Ivory Coast

GrootaertlDubois

The Cote d'lvoire Living Standards Survey: Design and Implementation (Engsh-French)

Ainsworth/Munoz

27 28

The Role of Employment and Eamings in Analyzing Levels of Living: A General Methodology with Grootaert Applications to Malaysia and Thailand Deaton/Case Analysis of Household Expenditures

The distribution of Welfare in COte dlvoire in 1985 (Eng0sh-French)

Glewwe

Deaton

Quality, Quantity, and Spatial Variaton of Price: Estimatng Price Elasticities fomn Cross-Sectonal Data Financing the Health Sector in Peru

Infommal Sector, Labor Markets, and Retums to Education in Peru

Suarez-Berenguela

Wage Determinants in Cote d'lvoire

Van der GaagAlVjverberg

United Nations Statistical Office

Booker/Singh/Savane

Martorell Birdsall

GrootaertlCheurg/Fung/ram

Suarez-Berenguela

LSMS Working Papers No.

TITLE

AUTHOR

Guidelines for Adaptng the LSMS Living Standards Questionnaires to Local Conditions

AinsworthNan der Gaag

The Demand for Medical Care in Developing Countiles: Quantty Rationing in Rural COte d'lvoire

DorNan der Gaag

Labor Market Acvity in COte dlvoire and Peru

Newman

37~*4,Gertier/Locay/Sanderson Healt Care Financing and the Demand for Medi.cal Care

der Gaag

Wage Determinants and School Attainment among Men in Peru

Stelcner/Arriagada/Moock

The Alocaton of Goods within the Household: Adults, Chidren, and Gender

Deaton

The Effects of Household and Community Characteristcs on the Nutrition of Preschool Chidren: Evidence from Rural COte d'lvoire

Strauss

Public-Private Sector Wage Differentials in Peru, 1985-86

StelcnerNan der Gaag/ Vijverberg

The Distribution of Welfare in Peru in 1985-86

Glewwe

Profits from Self-Employment A class Study of COte d'lvoire

Vijverberg

The Living Standards Survey and Price PoDcy Reform: A Study of Cocoa and Coffee Producton in COte d'lvoire

Deaton/Benjamin

Measuring the Willingness to Pay for Social Services in Developing Countries

GertlerNan der Gaag

Nonagricultural Family Enterprises in C6te d'lvo/re: A Developing Analysis

Vljverberg

The Poor during Adjustment: A Case Study of COte d'lvoire

Glewwe/de Tray

Confronting Poverty in Developing Countries: Definffions, Informaton, and Poicies

GlewweNan der Gaag

Sample Designs for the Living Standards Surveys in Ghana and Mauritania (Engsh-French)

Scott/Amenuvegbe

Food Subsidies: A Case Study of Price Refomm in Morocco (Engish-French)

Laraki

Chid Anthropometry in COte d'lvoire: Estimates from Two Surveys, 1895-86

Strauss/Mehra

Pubic-Private Sector Wage Comparisons and Moonlightng in Developing Countries: Evidence from COte d'lvoire and Peru

Van der Gaag/Stelcner/Vijverberg

Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertiity in COte d'lvoire

Ainsworth

The Wllingness to Pay for Educaton in Developing Countries: Evidence from rural Peru

Gertler/Glewwe

Rigidite des salaires: Donnees microeconomiques at macroeconomiques surrajustement du marche du travail dans be secteur modeme (French only)

Levy/Newman

The Poor in Latn America during Adjustment: A Case Study of Peru

Glewwelde Tray

The substtutabiNty of Pubic and Private Health Care for the Treatment of Chidren in Pakistan

Alderman/Gertler

Identfying the Poor: Is 'Headship' a Useful Concept?

Rosenhouse

Labor Market Performance as a Determinant of Migration

Vljverberg

Countries

The Relatve Effectiveness of Pfivate and Public Schools: Evidence from Two Developing

Jlmenez/Cox

Large Sample Distribution of Several Inequality Measures: With Appication to COte d7voire

Kakwani

Testing for Significance of Poverty Differences: With Applicaton to COte d'lvoire

Kakwani

Poverty and Economic Growth: With Applicaton to COte d'lvoire

Kakwani

Education and Eamings in Peru's Informal Nonfarm Famly Enterprises

MoocklMusgrove/Stelcner

Formal and Informal Sector Wage Determination in Urban Low-Income Neighborhoods in Pakistan Alderman/Kozel

Testng for Labor Market Dualty: The Private Wage Sector in COte d'lvoire

VijverbergNan der Gaag

DorNan

LSMS Working Papers No.

AUTHOR

TITLE

King

Does Educaton Pay in the Labor Market? The Labor Force ParticIpaton, Occupaton, and Eamings of Peruvian Women The Compositon and Distribution of Income in C0te d7voire

Price Elasticities from Survey Data: Extensions and Indonesian Results

Deaton

Effcient Allocation of Transfers to the Poor: The Problem of Unobserved Household Income

Glewwe

Investigadng the Determinants of Household Welfare in Cote d'ivoire

Glewwe

The SelecMvity of Fertlity and the Deterninants of Human Capital Investments: Parametric and Semiparametric Estmates Shadow Wages and Peasant Family Labor Supply: An Econometric Applicaton to the Peruvian Sierra

PittJRosenzw,eig Jacoby Jcb

The Acton of Human Resources and Poverly on One Another: What we have yet to leam

Behrman

The Distribution of We/fare in Ghana, 1987-88

Glewwe/Twum-Baah

Glewwe

Schooing, Skigs, and the Retums to Govemment Investment in Educaton: An Exploraton Using Data from Ghana Workers' Benefits from Bobvia's Emergency Social Fund

Dual Selecton Criteria with Multiple Altematives: Migraton, Work Status, and Wages

Vijverberg

Gender Differences in Household Resource Alocatons

Thomas

80 81

The Household Survey as a Tool for Policy Change: Lessons from the Jamaican Survey of LMng Grosh Conditons Deaton/Paxson Pattems of Aging in Thailand and Cote d'lvoire

Does Undemutrition Respond to Incomes and Prices? Dominance Tests fhr Indonesia

Kozel

Newman/Jorgensen/Pradhan

Ravallion

Growth and Redistribution Components of Changes in Poverty Measure: A Decomposition with AppOcations to Brazl and India in the 1980s 84

Measufing Income from Famiy Enterprises with Household Surveys

Vijverberg

Demand Analysis and Tax Refhrm in Pakistan

Deaton/Grimard

Glewwe/Hall

Poverty and Inequalty during Unorthodox Adjustment: The Case of Peru, 1985-90 (EngbshSpanish) Family Productvity, Labor Supply, and Welfare in a Low-income Country

Poverty Comparisons: A Guide to Concepts and Methods (Engish & Russian)

Ravallion

Public Policy and Anthropometric Outcomes in Cote d'Ivoire

Thomas/Lavy/Strauss

Measuring the Impact of Fatal Adult Illness in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Annotated Household Questionnaire Estmating the Determinants of Cognitve Achievement in Low-Income Countries: The Case of Ghana

Ainsworth/and others

Economic Aspects of Child Fostering in Cote d'Ivoire

Ainsworth

Lavy

Investment in Human Capital: Schooling Supply Constraints in Rural Ghana WiVngness to Pay for the Quality and Intensity of Medical Care: Low-Income Households in Ghana Measurement of Retums to Adult Health: Morbidity Effects on Wage Rates in Cote dlvoire and Ghana Welfare Implications of Female Headship in Jamaican Households

Household Size in C6te d'ivoire: Sampling Bias in the CILSS

Coulombe/Demery

Delayed Primary School Enrollment and Childhood Malnutrition in Ghana: An Economic Analysis

Glewwe/Jacoby

Poverty Reduction through Geographic Targetng: How Wel Does It Work?

Baker/Grosh

94 95

Newman/Gertler

Glewwe/Jacoby

Lavy/Quigiey Schulz/Tansel Louant/GroshNan der Gaag

LSMS Working Papers No.

TITLE

AUTHOR

100

Income Gains for the Poor from Public Works Employment. Evidence from Two Indian VdRages

DattVRavallion

101

Assessing the Quality of Anthropometric Data: Background and llustrated Guidelines for Survey Managers

Kostermans

102

How WeR Does the Social Safety Net Work? The Incidence of Cash Benefits in Hungary, 1987-89 van de Walle/Ravallion/Gautam

103

Deteminants of Fertity and Chid Mortality in COte d'lvoire and Ghana

Benefo/Schultz

104

Chidren's Health and Achievement in School

Behrman/Lavy

105

Quality and Cost in Health Care Choice in Developing Countnes

Lavy/Germain

106

The Impact of the Quality of Health Care on Children's Nutriton and Survival in Ghana

Lavy/Strauss/Thomas/de Vreyer

107

School Qualty, Achievement Bias, and Dropout Behavior in Egypt

HanushekWLavy

108

Contraceptive Use and the Qualty, Ptice, and Avaiabilty of Famiy Planning in Nigeria

Feyisetan/Ainsworth

109

Contraceptve Choice, Fertiity, and Pubic Poicy in Zmbabwe

Thomas/Maluccio

110

The Impact of Female Schooling on Fertlity and Contraceptive Use: A Study of Fourteen SubSaharan Countries

Ainsworth/Beegle/Nyamete

111

Contraceptive Use in Ghana: The Role of Service Avaiabdity, Qualty, and Price

Oliver

112

The Tradeoff between Numbers of Children and Chlid Schooing: Evidence from COte d'voire and Montgomery/Kouame/Oliver Ghana

113

Sector Partcipaton Decisions in Labor Supply Models

Pradhan

114

The Quality and Avalablity of Family Planning Services and Contraceptve Use in Tanzania

Beegle

115

Changing Pattems of Illiteracy in Morocco: Assessment Methods Compared

Lavy/Spratt/Leboucher

116

Quality of Medical Facies, Health, and Labor Force Partcipaton in Jamaica

Lavy/Palumbo/Stem

117

Who is Most Vulnerable to Macroeconomic Shocks? Hypothesis Tests Using Panel Data from Peru

GlewwetHall

118

Proxy Means Tests: Simulatons and Speculation for Social Programs

Grosh/Baker

119

Women's Schooling, Selectve Fertlty, and Child Mortalty in Sub-Saharan Africa

Pitt

120

A Guide to Living Standards Measurement Study Surveys and Their Data Sets

Grosh/Glewwe

121

Infrastructure and Poverty in Viet Nam

van de Walle

122

Comparaisons de la Pauvrete: Concepts et Methodes

Ravallion

123

The Demand for Medical Care: Evidence from Urban Areas in Bolivia

124

Constructing an Indicator of Consumption for the Analysis of Poverty: Principles and IDlustratons with Reference to Ecuador

HentscheULanjouw

125

The Contribution of Income Components to Income Inequality in South Africa: A Decomposable GiniAnalysis

Leibbrandt/Woolard/Woolard

126

A Manual for Planning and Implementng the LSMS Survey (English and Russian)

GroshlMunoz

127

Unconditonal Demand for Health Care in Cote d'lvoire: Does Selecton on Health Status Matter?

Dow

128

How Does Schoolng of Mothers Improve Chlid Health: Evidence from Morocco

Glewwe

129

Making Poverty Comparisons Taking Into Account Survey Design: How and Why

Howes and Lanjouw (Jean)

130

Model Living Standards Measurement Study Survey Questionnaire for the Countries of the Former Soviet Union (Enghsh and Russian)

Oliver

131

Chronic Iness and Retrement in Jamaica

Handa and Neitzert

132

The Role of the Private Sector in Education in Vietnam

Glewwe and Patrinos

LSMS Working Papers TITLE

No.

AUTHOR

133

Poverty Unes In Theory and Practce

Martin Ravallion

134

Social Assistance In Albania: Decentraizaton and Targeted Transfers

Harold Alderman

BCEMHPHE6IIf BAHK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

1110

...

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ISBN 0-82 13-41 1 6 2

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