THE FUTURIST, January - February 2011 by World Future Society

Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future

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70 Jobs for 2030: Special Report Job creation, futurist style: Timothy FerrisW, Seth Godin, Alexandra Levit, Thomas Frey, and other workplace trend analysts envision a variety of promising occupations not yet invented. Page 30

Education’s Holy Grail: Personalized Learning, page 12

Why the Arts Matter in Education, page 18 Bioprinting and the Future of Surgery, page 21 A Convenient Truth about Clean Energy, page 25 PLUS: World Trends & Forecasts, Tomorrow in Brief, Future Scope, Book Reviews, and more

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January-February 2011

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January-February 2011 Volume 45, No. 1

A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas

about the future

articles

Learn this! Page 12

12 The World Is My School: Welcome to the Era of Personalized Learning By Maria H. Andersen

Future learning will become both more social and more personal, says an educational technology expert.

18 Pleasure, Beauty, and Wonder: Educating for the Knowledge Age By John M. Eger departments 2

Tomorrow in Brief

Future Scope

World Trends & Forecasts

42 Institutional Members 44 Consultants and Services 53 2010 Subject/Author Index to THE FUTURIST 59 As Tweeted books 47 Human Civilization Migrates Northward A book review by Rick Docksai

In The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future, geologist Laurence C. Smith notes world-changing population and economic shifts.

47 Books in Brief

Bottled and Sold Climatopolis How to Catch a Robot Rat Outrageous Fortunes Packing for Mars Rethinking Risk

21 The Future of Medicine: Are Custom-Printed Organs on the Horizon? By Vladimir Mironov

Medical researchers are creating robots that can bioprint new tissue and organs directly into patients’ bodies while performing surgery—without assistance from doctors.

25 A Convenient Truth about Clean Energy By Carl E. Schoder

The earth is awash in energy; we just need new infrastructure to tap it. A chemical engineer shows how we could break free of fossil fuels by deploying the power of ammonia and hydrogen.

Awash in energy. Page 25

30 Special Section: 70 Jobs for 2030 “Job creation” starts with innovative thinking, so we invited some of the best futurist minds to envision where the ground may be most fertile for future opportunities.

Emerging Careers and How to Create Them By Cynthia G. Wagner

A Clash of Ideas and Ideals on the Jobs Front By Patrick Tucker The Coming of the Terabyters: Lifelogging for a Living By Thomas Frey Careers for a More Personal Corporation By Jim Ware Unmanned Cargo Vehicle Operator: A Scenario By Karen W. Currie Managing Our Feelings By Joyce Gioia

Careers Inspired by Nanotech Trends By Anne Gordon Online Community Organizer By Seth Godin

Digital Identity Planner: A Scenario By Timothy Ferriss

Fixing Our Machines and Ourselves By Charles Grantham Personal Care Coordinator By Alexandra Levit Future World Shapers By Alireza Hejazi

60 Future View: Future, Fantasy, And Positive Volition By Matthew Colborn

When futurists choose to be optimistic, it is sometimes mistaken for mindless fantasy. But a psychologist argues that optimism is vital for effective futuring, because it allows us to face reality with the fortitude to make things better.

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Tomorrow

in brief PO.DAAC / NASA-JET PROPULSION LABORATORY

Can Handedness Be Altered? “Choosing” which hand you use to reach for a cup or doorknob isn’t something you give a lot of thought to, but in fact the brain undergoes a complex decision-making process, pitting left versus right sides. Understanding this process may help researchers develop treatments for stroke patients and others with motor disorders. Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, found that they could increase the use of the left hand among right-handed individuals by applying magnetic stimulation to the left side of the parietal cortex (which governs the processing of spatial relationships and planning). Beyond the clinical applications for helping patients with brain injuries, the researchers believe that magnetic stimulation could potentially be used to influence other decisionmaking processes. Source: University of California, Berkeley, www.berkeley.edu.

The El Niño event of 2009-2010 was the most intense observed in the central Pacific region to date.

El Niño Events Gain Strength The El Niños occurring in the central Pacific Ocean have nearly doubled in intensity since 1982, according to researchers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Intensity is measured by how much the sea surface temperature deviates from the average. While climate change may be behind the shift of these more-intense El Niños from the eastern to the central Pacific region, it is their impacts on weather patterns that have the

researchers concerned. “El Niño’s impact on global weather patterns is different if ocean warming occurs primarily in the central Pacific instead of the eastern Pacific,” according to NOAA’s Michael McPhaden. “If the trend we observe continues, it could throw a monkey wrench into longrange weather forecasting, which is largely based on our understanding of El Niños from the latter half of the twentieth century.” Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.noaa.gov.

Clean-Energy Innovations

Choosing which hand to use for simple motor skills is a part of a complex decision-making process in the brain that researchers now believe can be manipulated.

THE FUTURIST

Patenting rates for cleanenergy technologies have increased by approximately 20% per year since 1997, and nearly 80% of innovations originated in just six countries: Japan, the United States, Germany, South Korea, France, and the U.K., according to a new study, “Patents and Clean Energy: Bridging the Gap between Evidence and Policy.” The surge in patent activity following the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol suggests that political decisions can help drive international competition, even in countries that did not

January-February 2011

sign the treaty, such as the United States, the study’s authors conclude. Source: “Patents and Clean Energy,” published by the European Patent Office, is available from www.epo.org/clean-energy.

Stress and Cancer Cancer may have found a partner in resisting radiation and chemotherapy: stress. If a patient exercises intensely or experiences emotional stress within two days prior to therapy, a cell-repairing protein (Hsp27) is activated that protects the cancer cells, according to Ohio State University researchers. The observation gives doctors hope of finding ways to counter Hsp27’s role in interfering with cancer-cell death. In the meantime, cancer patients may be able to improve their own treatment by avoiding stress, according to lead researcher Govindasamy Ilangovan, an associate professor of internal medicine. Source: Ohio State University, www.osu.edu.

Artificial Leaf Mimics Solar Cells A leaf-like solar device made from a water-based gel and infused with light-sensitive molecules could offer a less expensive and more environmentally friendly alternative to silicon-based solar cells. Researchers at North Carolina State University used plant chlorophyll coupled with electrodes coated by carbon materials. The devices are stimulated by the sun’s rays to produce electricity in the same way that plants are stimulated to synthesize sugars. Though the device is currently low-efficiency, the researchers hope to improve the biologically inspired “soft” photovoltaic arrays, perhaps one day covering roofs with sheets of artificial-leaf solar cells. Source: North Carolina State University, www.ncsu.edu.

About

this

Issue

A Publication of the World Future Society

Editorial Staff Edward Cornish Editor

Cynthia G. Wagner Managing Editor

Patrick Tucker Senior Editor

Aaron M. Cohen, Rick Docksai Staff Editors

Lane Jennings Research Director

Lisa Mathias Art Director

Contributing Editors Clement Bezold, Government Tsvi Bisk, Strategic Thinking Irving H. Buchen, Training Peter Eder, Marketing and Communications Joyce Gioia-Herman, Workforce/Workplace Barbara Marx Hubbard, Images of Man Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting Jay S. Mendell, Innovation Joseph N. Pelton, Telecommunications Arthur B. Shostak, Utopian Thought David P. Snyder, Lifestyles Gene Stephens, Criminal Justice Timothy Willard, Biofutures

Contact Us Letters to the Editor: letters@wfs.org Subscription/Address Change: info@wfs.org Advertising: jcornish@wfs.org Submissions/Queries: cwagner@wfs.org Permission/Reprints: jcornish@wfs.org Back Issues/Bulk Copies: jcornish@wfs.org Press/Media Inquiries: ptucker@wfs.org Partnerships/Affiliations: tmack@wfs.org Conference Inquiries: jboykin@wfs.org Anything Else: info@wfs.org THE FUTURIST World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Hours: 9 a.m.–5 p.m. eastern time, weekdays except U.S. holidays Telephone: 301-656-8274 or 800-989-8274 Fax: 301-951-0394 www.wfs.org/futurist

Forecasting (and Inventing) Future Careers Choosing a career may be the biggest, most life-altering decision that most of us will make in a lifetime—and some of us will have to make that decision many times, due to a variety of unforeseen circumstances. If that’s not enough pressure, try choosing a career based on accelerating economic, social, and technological changes so powerful that whatever job you choose may not exist when you are ready to go to work. This issue of THE FUTURIST offers some ideas for going about the future job hunt. It requires a delicate balance of self-awareness (What are you good at? What fulfills you?) and worldliness (What will need doing? Who will pay you to do it?). Futurists have long argued that it is better to create the future than to predict it; so with that in mind, explore some of the future jobs “created” by the contributors (including Timothy Ferris, Thomas Frey, Joyce Gioia, Seth Godin, Alexandra Levit, and others) for our special section on future careers, “70 Jobs for 2030,” beginning on page 30. Speaking of inventing jobs, the World Future Society is pleased to welcome Jennifer Boykin to the staff, in the newly created position of Director of Development. In addition to helping the Society’s strategic planning, Jennifer will be building new membership programs and coordinating conference planning and development. We are looking forward to working with her and hope you will have the opportunity to get to know Jennifer Boykin, the World her, too. Future Society’s new director The Society also recently welcomed of development, may be two new Board members: marketing reached at jboykin@wfs.org. and public relations specialist Marian Salzman and business consultant Jared Weiner. Marian is president of Euro RSCG Worldwide PR North America and a pioneer in applying futuring tools, such as trend spotting, in the corporate milieu. Jared is vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., one of the world’s leading futurist consulting firms. —Cynthia G. Wagner Managing Editor cwagner@wfs.org

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Future Scope EARLY WARNINGS

Tipping Point in National Debt Once public debt reaches 77% of a nation’s gross domestic product, “bad things start to happen,” observe North Carolina State University economics professors Mehmet Caner and Tom Grennes. Their findings are based on an analysis of the debt of 100 countries over 30 years. The actual “tipping point” may vary for a specific nation (for instance, emerging economies have a lower threshold). However, policy makers who recognize the potential for national debt to reach a level where it significantly slows down economic growth could take steps to avoid piling on more debt, according to Caner. Source: North Carolina State University, www.ncsu.edu.

PUBLIC HEALTH

Who’s High Now? The number of Americans aged 50 and older who sought treatment for substance abuse doubled between 1992 and 2008, according to a study by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. During this time, unemployment in this age group also increased from 19.4% to nearly 31%, and the percentage of those reporting no principal source of income more than doubled (from 11% to 28.8%). “This rise in substance abuse treatment among older adults and the changes in the socioeconomic situation of this treatment group … highlight the importance of providing additional specialized treatment services and social supports to address these needs,” says SAMHSA administrator Pamela S. Hyde. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, www.samhsa.gov.

AGING

Men, Women, and Cognitive Impairment Alzheimer’s disease is more prevalent among women, but men are 1.5 times more likely to have mild cognitive impairment, according to the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. The study of Minnesota residents aged 70-89 without dementia found a 16% total prevalence rate of mild cognitive impairment. If this population with mild impairment is added to the 10%–11% of the population who already have Alzheimer’s or are at risk of dementia, then the total population of cognitively impaired people over age 70 4

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

could reach 25% or more, notes research director Ronald Petersen. Source: Mayo Clinic, www.mayoclinic.org. The study was published in the September 2010 issue of Neurology.

GOALS

Reducing Military’s Resource Consumption The U.S. Department of Defense recently announced plans to reduce water and fossil-fuel consumption by more than 20% over the next decade, embracing sustainability as a component of national security. Among the strategies for achieving this goal are increasing teleworking, reducing air travel, improving management of solid waste (such as by using less paper), and minimizing chemicals released into the environment (such as by improving disposal of electronic wastes and pesticides). Source: U.S. Air Force, www.af.mil.

INFORMATION SOCIETY

WordBuzz: Halfalogue People who seem to be talking to themselves in public are an increasingly common phenomenon, but most of us recognize that these monologists are in fact talking to someone else on a cell phone. Nonetheless, the result is not just annoying to bystanders exposed to the “halfalogue”; it also reduces their ability to concentrate while performing other tasks, warns Lauren Emberson, a psychologist at Cornell University. Unlike a soliloquy one would hear, for example, during Hamlet, a halfalogue overheard on the street or in the next cubicle provides only half of the information being communicated, provoking the listeners to focus on filling in the missing pieces of the conversation. Source: “Overheard Cell-Phone Conversations: When Less Speech Is More Distracting” by Lauren Emberson, Psychological Science (September 21, 2010), Association for Psychological Science, www.psychologicalscience.org.

News and Comments Welcome Send Feedback on any article or story to letters@wfs.org. News stories pertaining to trends, forecasts, or futurism may be submitted to the managing editor at cwagner@wfs.org.

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Officers President: Timothy C. Mack

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Director of Development: Jennifer Boykin

Treasurer: Kenneth W. Hunter

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Arnold Brown

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

chairman, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

European Futures Observatory

Marvin J. Cetron

Raja Ikram Azam

president, Forecasting International Ltd.

honorary chairman, Pakistan Futuristics Foundation

Edward Cornish

Raj Bawa

founder and former president, World Future Society

president, Bawa Biotechnology Consulting,

Esther Franklin

and adjunct associate professor,

executive vice president and director of cultural

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

identities, Starcom MediaVest Group

Adolfo Castilla

John Gottsman

economist, communications professor, Madrid

Graham May principal lecturer in futures research, Leeds Metropolitan University, U.K.

Michael Michaelis president, Partners In Enterprise

Julio Millán president, Banco de Tecnologias, and chairman, Grupo Coraza, Mexico

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller visiting senior research fellow, ISEAS, Singapore

John Naisbitt trend analyst and author

president, The Clarity Group

Hugues de Jouvenel

Kenneth W. Harris

executive director, Association

Burt Nanus

Internationale Futuribles

author and professor emeritus of management,

chairman, The Consilience Group LLC

Kenneth W. Hunter director of professional programs, Institute for

Yehezkel Dror professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

University of Southern California

John L. Petersen president, The Arlington Institute

Global C hinese Affairs, University of Maryland

William E. Halal

Nat Irvin II

professor of management science and

Sandra L. Postel

director of Emerging Technologies Project,

director, Global Water Policy Project

College of Business, University of Louisville

Timothy C. Mack president, World Future Society

Jay McIntosh (chairman) president, Consumer Foresight LLC

Mylena Pierremont president, Ming Pai Consulting BV

Marian Salzman president, Euro RSCG Worldwide PR North America

Jared Weiner vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

George Washington University

Robert Salmon

Peter Hayward

former vice president, L’Oreal Corporation, Paris

program director, Strategic Foresight Program,

Maurice F. Strong

Swinburne University of Technology, Australia

secretary general, U.N. Conference on

Barbara Marx Hubbard

Environment and Development

president, The Foundation for Conscious Evolution

Alvin Toffler

Sohail Inayatullah

author

professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan

Heidi Toffler

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

author

Faculty of Social Sciences, Gregorian University, Rome

World Future Society The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific association dedicated to promoting a better understanding of the trends shaping our future. Founded in 1966, the Society serves as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future; it takes no stand on what the future will or should be like. The Society’s publications, conferences, and other activities are open to all individuals and institutions around the world. For more information on membership programs, contact Society headquarters Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time. 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone: 1-301-656-8274, Toll free: 1-800-989-8274, Fax: 1-301-951-0394 Web site: www.wfs.org • E-mail: info@wfs.org

World Trends & Forecasts Money Energy Robotics Climate Change Money

Smart Banknotes A proposal for bridging the gap between physical and electronic money.

By Ignacio Mas Cash imposes large costs on society, yet it is hard to envision moving to an entirely cashless society. If we cannot get rid of cash, then we need to change it in a way that makes it less costly for all to handle. A new kind of “smart banknote” that can be activated or deactivated electronically could be created. You would transfer value from a banknote to and from your bank account, right from your mobile handset. Deactivated cash could be transported cheaply and instantaneously; stores could make their accumulated cash balance vanish at will by simply deactivating it; and bank customers would be able to convert their bank account into “If we can’t get rid of cash, then we cash—or vice need to change it in a way that versa—anywhere, anytime. makes it less costly.” With these new Ignacio Mas of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation smart banknotes, mobile banking could flourish in developing countries without requiring complex and costly cash agent networks. In this fashion, the mobile handset can truly integrate the capabilities of an Internet banking terminal and an ATM. A large portion of the world’s population depends on cash as a form of saving and as 6

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

a means of exchange, but there are three big problems with it: • Cash is not easily used for remote payments, such as sending money to your college kid in another state. • It is difficult for people to hang on to small cash balances beyond pure pocket money. As a store of value, physical cash creates problems of self-discipline and security. • It is unsafe to transport and travel with cash. Cash handling also imposes a large cost on banks, and this high cost critically constrains the ability of banks to increase the capillarity of their distribution networks (through branches or ATMs). Banks transfer the cost to their customers by requiring them to travel to more distant cash aggregation centers. This may not be much of a problem in developed countries where banks have deployed a dense network of branches and ATMs to cater to their customers’ cash needs, but this infrastructure is largely lacking in slums and rural areas in developing countries. Despite these problems, cash has benefits that electronic money cannot deliver: It is universally accepted. Transactions are quick. The bills are of fixed denomination (unlike payment cards, which are linked to variable account values), making them very useful for limiting the amount of money you risk spending (or losing) when you take a trip to the casino, for instance, or go out on a late-night jog. And of course cash can be used anonymously, while elec-

tronic payments always leave a trail. The advantages of electronic money are virtually the flip side of the advantages of cash: E-money consists of storable and readable information, and its transactions are transparent and traceable. While electronic money will inexorably displace cash, electronic money and cash will need to coexist at least for a few more years. That’s particularly true in developing countries, where there is only a tiny installed base of acceptance devices. Figuring out the interface between these two forms of money—cashing into and cashing out of electronic money—will be the key to making cash less costly. Bridging the Gap between Cash and Cashless Systems Imagine a new generation of bills embedded with a radio-enabled chip that could communicate at close range with a mobile phone or a point-of-sale (POS) device. The chip could essentially turn the bill “on” or “off,” and that bill’s state would somehow be visible to the user (e.g., its color might disappear when the bill is “off” and reappear in full splendor when it is “on”). Cash could then be transported at low cost in its deactivated form. In order to be used, bills would need to be activated by electronically transferring value to them from a bank account. Users could do that by passing their bills over their radioequipped mobile phone or at an enabled POS terminal, and agreeing to a transfer of value from their bank account to the bill. Like any debit transaction, this would be authorized and recorded in real time by the user’s bank. The process could also be reversed: Bills could be deactivated by having their value transferred back (i.e., credited) to their bank account. There would be a security protocol ensuring that, when one source of value is credited (e.g., by activating my banknote), a like amount would be debited (e.g., from my bank account). In this fashion, the mobile phone truly becomes an ATM. People would be able to instantly deposit money into their accounts and create immediate liquidity from their bank accounts, without requiring any

banking infrastructure in their neighborhood. Bills would be like prepaid cards that have their value loaded or expended, but unlike prepaid cards they would remain of a fixed denomination. In their active state, they could be tradable like cash without requiring a card reader. In their deactivated state, they could be distributed very cheaply, and stacks of deactivated bills could be purchased for pennies at the supermarket. With these “smart banknotes,” monetary authorities could reduce the security costs of producing and distributing cash because it could be handled in its deactivated form through normal distribution channels. The chip would offer a higher level of security on the bills, as it would be able to hold an encrypted unique serial number. The validity of bills could be established unequivocally in real time. Implementing this scheme would require central banks to issue these new smart banknotes. There is a long tradition of embedding new technology into bills, such as anticounterfeiting holograms, so this scheme would fit in the natural evolution of physical currency. The issuance of new bills can also be gradual; new and old bills could coexist. Security standards will be needed to ensure that activation or deactivation of the smart banknotes would be through authorized devices and authorized accounts. In addition, the scheme would require a deployed base of cash-activating devices (mobile phones or POS terminals), with realtime connectivity to banks for banking transactions, RFID capabilities to interact with cash bills, and a bill management application. So far, all attempts to eradicate cash by replacing it with electronic forms of money have failed. People don’t want to entirely let go of the physicality of cash. Moving toward the much-vaunted cashless society is often invoked as a social-engineering task. While technology can be an instrument to change society, it seems unreasonable to change society so that we can adopt technology. So let’s change our banknotes instead. In fact, this scheme is in the historical tradition of issuing pieces of metal as coins by

THE FUTURIST

“While technology can be an instrument to change society, it seems un reasonable to change society so that we can adopt technology. So let’s change our banknotes instead.”

January-February 2011

World Trends & Forecasts the act of stamping a wedge (Latin: cuneus, from which the word “coin” is derived) on them. The wedge “activated” them in the sense of certifying their value. Ignacio Mas is deputy director in the Financial Services for the Poor team at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, www.gatesfoundation.org. The author would like to thank Paul Makin and Andrew Whitcombe of Consult Hyperion for their work in assessing the technical feasibility of the smart banknotes described here. They in fact came up with the term smart banknote.

Turbine generates electricity

Surplus water for heating

A binary cycle geothermal power plant, which operates on a closed loop, may be the best bet for tapping into the Earth’s energy at great depths.

THE FUTURIST

Forward to the Steam Age? Geothermal plants could have a seismic impact on energy demand—literally.

As the gradual shift from fossil fuels to renewables gets further under way, a number of researchers are beginning to look more closely at the promise of geothermal energy. While the geothermal process is not completely emission-free, the amount of greenhouse gases released is far less than Condensing and cooling that from conventional fossil fuels. Like wind and solar, heat from the earth is safer and cleaner than fossil fuels Water in and provides an inexhaustible source of energy. Currently, most geothermal energy comes from around 200 meters Steam and water separation deep, at temperatures of less than 10°C—which is actually not very hot when compared with the temperatures just a little further down. ell It is estimated that 99% of the earth ion w t c u d has a temperature of more than o l r l P we tion c 1,000°C. According to researchers at e j In the Norwegian-based organization SINTEF, harnessing just a tiny fraction of this heat could theoretically provide enough energy for the entire world population. Several Norwegian companies and organizations— including SINTEF, which has experience with petroleum exploration—are planning an ambitious pilot project that would harness the geothermal energy from 5,500 meters deep in the earth—about the same depth as some of the more recent onshore oil wells. According to researchers, the energy is there—all that is needed is a truly safe, effective means to tap into it. Current wisdom favors binary cycle geothermal power plants. This type of plant features two deep, interconnected wells that operate in a cyclical fashion. KNUT GANGÅSSÆTER / SINTEF

Energy

January-February 2011

Cold water is pumped down an injection well and heated by the underground rock (to around 95°C at that depth), then pumped back up via a production well, giving off steam, driving turbines, and generating electricity. After around three decades, this process will have cooled the bedrock to the point where it is no longer hot enough to be productive, not unlike a tapped oil field run dry. The wells would be sealed off and the power plant shut down. Then, three decades later, the temperature will have risen again, and it will be time to unseal the wells and begin the process anew, after upgrading the plant. This “ace in the hole” helps make geothermal power plants more cost-effective than oil rigs, researchers argue. The Norwegian coalition is planning to go two or even three times deeper if the pilot plant is successful. That would require new technologies, however, and greatly increases the likelihood of incurring very serious risks. Most severely, fracturing or eroding the crust’s bedrock in order to recover its heat could trigger earthquakes in the region. This notably occurred in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006, when Geothermal Explorers Limited’s field operations set off a series of quakes. At such high temperatures in the earth’s crust, the rock is liquefied, so anything else there runs the risk of being liquefied or broken. Electronic equipment shorts out very quickly at temperatures over 200°C. New technologies are needed in order to meet those challenges. ExxonMobil and other oil companies are beginning to drill exploration wells at 10,000 meters, depths once believed to be too risky. Geothermal researchers now hope to adapt these oil drilling technologies, perhaps working in tandem with oil companies, and make them safer and more affordable for clean, renewable energy. “Geothermal energy is a unique opportunity for the oil industry to develop in a new way,” says Are Lund, senior researcher at SINTEF Materials and Chemistry. “They will come to realize this, it’s just a matter of time.” —Aaron M. Cohen Source: SINTEF, www.sintef.no.

Robotics

Robots as Athletes Soccer-playing robots may help advance artificial intelligence. Imagine robots that can play soccer (football) at the level of the World Cup championships. For researchers in artificial intelligence, such an event would be tantamount to—and possibly even surpass—that moment in 1997 when IBM’s Deep Blue s upercomputer defeated thenworld champion Garry Kasparov in chess. The challenges are daunting. Autonomous, athletically capable humanoids that act together as a unit would require not just highly advanced software (the intellectual component) but also highly advanced hardware (the physical component). By sharing knowledge and codes, and developing and testing technologies together, AI designers hope to realize this vision. Launched in 1993, the RoboCup international robot soccer competition (also known as the Robot World Cup Initiative) provides a platform for AI and robotics researchers to test their developments, work together, spur each other on, and create research breakthroughs. It is a competition in the best sense of the word—the kind that facilitates cooperation. In his essay “Robot Soccer,” University of New South Wales computer science and engineering professor Claude Sammut describes the different levels of play, pointing out that the robotic soccer fields are smaller (and virtual in some low-level competitions), and the rules much simpler than in soccer played by humans. Currently, there are only three robots per team, as compared to eleven in human play. Sammut writes: “As the robots and their programming have become more sophisticated, the rules of the game, including field size and number of players, have been made tougher to encourage progress.”

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ALDEBARAN ROBOTICS

Autonomous bipedal humanoid robots such as the Nao from Aldebaran Robotics, used for RoboCup league play since 2008, may one day perform as well as the legendary Brazilian star Pelé, improving the science of artificial intelligence in the process.

January-February 2011

World Trends & Forecasts

“Soccer is good for developing the fundamentals that will be necessary for [urban search and rescue] and many other tasks.”

French company Aldebaran Robotics’ humanoid Nao is the model of robot currently in use in the RoboCup. While still relatively basic, these humanoid robots use color cameras as their primary sensors (not unlike HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey), operate autonomously (as opposed to being remote-controlled), and can communicate with each other wirelessly. Sammut stresses that soccer is only a means to an end—not an end in itself. “In addition to soccer playing, the competition also includes leagues for urban search and rescue and for robotic helpers at home,” he writes. He emphasizes that soccer is good for developing the fundamentals that will be necessary for these and many other tasks. The basics include “perceiving” their surroundings, interpreting constantly changing situations, making quick decisions based on those situations, and then acting on them, adjusting tactics as necessary. The AI units must also be able to transmit information back and forth. Whereas soccer fields always conform to the same basic grid layout and boast the same landmarks (goal posts, for example), less-structured environments present greater challenges. For example, a house or apartment and the possessions it contains (which can act as landmarks) may not change much over time, but it is more complex to move about in. It is harder still for an AI program to map a completely unfamiliar urban environment without any immediately identifiable landmarks. In search and rescue situations, “the robot has to simultaneously map its environment while reacting to and interacting with the surroundings,” Sammut writes. And off the soccer field, AI units must interact with actual people—not just other AI units. Despite the challenges, little by little, progress is being made each year. And if the participants and organizers meet their stated goals, then expect a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots to show no mercy against their opponents in the actual World Cup in 2050. —Aaron M. Cohen Sources: Claude Sammut, “Robot Soccer,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, Volume 1, Issue 6, http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA. RoboCup, www.robocup.org.

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January-February 2011

Climate Change

Saving Bangladesh Early warnings that lead to early interventions are urgently needed. Bangladesh’s seasonal floods, cyclones, and droughts will become much more deadly this century due to climate change, development experts warn. But the country’s new early-alert storm systems and rapid-response teams may help Bangladeshis weather the worst effects. Nationally distributed Flood Early Warning Systems spot flash floods and report them to province officials so that they can give villages in the floods’ paths 24-48 hours’ notice to evacuate with their belongings to shelters. Nazrul Islam, global coordinator for the nonprofit Bangladesh Environment Network, says that these forecast systems were first designed in the 1970s as safeguards against seasonal storms. But new knowledge about climate change—especially its tendency to intensify storm patterns—has galvanized efforts in the last few years to boost the systems’ capabilities. “Climate change makes these preparations all the more necessary and forces us to raise them to a much higher level, given what is likely to come,” says Islam. “That will require a lot more resources, and, much more importantly, those resources have to be utilized much more efficiently.” One improvement that Islam wants to see is shelters retrofitted to accommodate both farm animals and people. He says that many rural Bangladeshis are reluctant to go to shelters since it means leaving their animals behind. “The cattle are the only capital that many poor people have,” he says. The Bangladeshi government recently built five new weather radar stations throughout the country to help the earlywarning systems better monitor storm patterns, reports Tanjir Hossain, deputy manager for the ActionAid Climate Change Adaptation Project. In addition, the government and NGOs are working to adapt the systems to relay information directly to the villages.

“So far, Bangladesh can predict what will happen in the next 48 hours. We are working on predicting 72 hours of flood situation precisely,” says Hossain. Peter Webster, a Georgia Institute of Technology earth sciences professor, has helped enhance some villages’ early-warning systems so that they forecast storms up to 10 days ahead. This minimized deaths during floods in 2007 and 2008. “Communication was the key, [along with] the explanation of what a forecast was and how it could be used,” says Webster. He adds that he hopes to implement the 10-day forecast model in Pakistan, as well, where many farmlands are “rainfed regions”—i.e., not irrigated. He says that crop yield in rainfed regions is currently half that of regions that are irrigated. “So far the extended forecasts have been used for flood forecasting. But there is great potential utility for agriculture, especially in ‘rainfed’ regions,” says Webster. “We feel that, with extensive communication, we could increase food security in parts of the developing world.” Volunteer response units are another component of Bangladesh’s climate-change plans. The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) stations 40,000 volunteers along the coasts to disseminate warnings of impending cyclones and to help communities evacuate. BDCRS is training an additional 60,000 new volunteers. Climate change could be especially destructive to Bangladesh because its coast line is only 1 meter above sea level, and its interior is heavily flooded by both powerful rainstorms and by the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers flowing from China and India. If climate change continues, according to Webster, it would intensify the storms and make rainfall more erratic. Some areas would suffer crippling droughts, while others would become nearly uninhabitable due to torrential downpours. Meanwhile, intense cyclones would pummel the coast with higher storm surges. Bangladesh faces an even bigger threat, however, from rising sea levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that climate change could raise sea levels by up to 7 meters this century. That

would submerge as much as 17% of Bangladesh, displace between 60 million and 70 million Bangladeshis, and pollute hundreds of square miles of Bangladeshi soil with salt water. The best defense against the incoming water might just be more water. According to Hossain and Islam, the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers each transport immense volumes of sediment to Bangladesh’s beaches every year. The rivers deposit the sediment onto the coasts and build them up to meet the sea. “There are cases of embankments or dams falling down, and in three or four years, entire lands are raised by natural processes,” says Hossain. This sedimentation might hold back much of the seawater, says Islam, were it not for the plans by China to build dams on the Brahmaputra and divert its water toward its own farms. India already diverts much of the Ganges’ water. If China or India dams the Brahmaputra, also, it will block the sedimentation and leave Bangladesh more exposed to seawater tides. “Those sediments are the survival of Bangladesh against sea level rise,” says Islam, who hopes that India and China will decide against the Brahmaputra dams. That decision would not only spare Bangladesh climate-change impacts, he argues: It would also spare India massive influxes of Bangladeshi climate refugees. “Our position is: Let the river be free. Let it flow as it used to flow for ages,” says Islam. “Bangladesh has the same message for India and China, and we think it is the message that is beneficial for all.” —Rick Docksai

Boats amass along the river outside Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Rivers are integral to Bangladeshi life, according to experts, who warn that the rivers’ health will heavily factor into how Bangladesh withstands climate change.

Sources: Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, www.gatech.edu. Tanjir Hossain, ActionAid, www.actionaid.org. Nazrul Islam, Bangladesh Environment Network, www.ben-center.org.

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January-February 2011

The World Is My School: Welcome to the Era of Personalized Learning By Maria H. Andersen Future learning will become both more social and more personal, says an educational technology expert.

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January-February 2011

umans have always been learning, but how we learn has changed over time. The earliest means of education were highly personal: Oral histories passed from adults to children, informal or formal apprenticeships, and one-on-one tutoring have all been used in the early history of most cultures. It’s only been in the last two centuries that we’ve used formalized systems of mass public education (aka industrialized education). Certainly, personalized learning is the more effective method. In 1984, educational researcher Benjamin Bloom found that average students who were tutored one-on-one outperformed 98% of students who were learning via conventional methods (this is referred to as Bloom’s two-sigma problem). However, personal learning is not cost-effective, and so we currently educate students in batches of 20, 30, or even 200 students at a time. This is likely to get worse before it gets better, with prominent philanthropists like Bill Gates declaring that “the best lectures in the world” will be online within the next five years. Certainly we can use technology to deliver those lectures to thousands, or even millions, of students at a time, but a lecture does not automatically produce learning any more than attending a class does. Mass education is adequate, as long as students are highly motivated to learn and get ahead of their peers. In developing countries, a student who is successful in education will be able to climb the ladder of personal economic prosperity faster than those who are not successful. But in industrialized countries, where prosperity is the norm, an education does not necessarily translate into a significantly higher standard of living. In these countries, there is no longer a large economic incentive to learn, so the motivation to learn must become intrinsic. As we re design en masse education, we must address learners’ intrinsic motivations, which means that education must circle back to being personal again. The vision of a modern education built around personalized learning is not new, but it is definitely tantaliz-

ing. Neal Stephenson’s novel The Diamond Age (Spectra, 1995) shares a vision of personalized learning in the future via an interactive book that possesses a conversational interface (CI) and “pseudo-intelligence,” a kind of artificial intelligence (AI) that is inferior to human intelligence. It’s likely that we’ll see decent conversational interfaces within the next decade, and certainly applications like Google Voice are moving us much closer to this reality. AI that is capable of directing the learning needs of a human will take much longer, developing in the next 20–50 years, but we can’t wait that long for the technology to catch up with education. The need for personalized learning exists in the here and now. So how does one bridge this vision of the future with the realities of the present? Learning Technologies Today Let’s start by taking stock of the personalized technologies for information that we already have. We have software that stores the content we like (e.g., Evernote, Posterous) and software that merely stores the location of that content (e.g., Diigo or Delicious). Even traditional media, like books, now have parallel digital systems that allow for note taking, highlighting, and bookmarking (e.g., Kindle, Nook, or iPad). While it’s useful to store and search information, I would venture that we rarely go back to look at the information we mark for storage. This is a problem; for deep learning to occur, we need to have repeated exposure to the information, along with some time in between for reflection. We need to give our brains a repeated opportunity to process the information we take in so that it becomes knowledge, understanding, and wisdom. This means we’re going to have to find time in our busy lives to reflect on the information that flows past us on a daily basis, and we’re going to need some kind of technology that keeps us on track with our learning goals. While it seems outrageous that we could find any more time in our busy lives, consider some of the disruptive changes we’ve seen quite re-

ILLUSTRATIONS: SCOTT SPENCER, DIANE LABOMBARBE, MARTIN MALCHEN / ISTOCKPHOTO

cently that affect how we spend our free time. Facebook, now with 500 million users, has disrupted normal social interactions in a little over six years. Micro-blogging exploded when a Web site simply invited us to answer the question: What’s on your mind? Twitter users now send more than 50 million tweets per day, and big news stories break first on Twitter—in real time and with eyewitness accounts. As big as Twitter is, there were more people playing Farmville (a social media game on Facebook) at its peak than there were active Twitter users—a fact that has not gone unnoticed by game designers and educators. These Farmville players are choosing to spend their free time for collaborative activities (their “cognitive surplus,” as media scholar Clay Shirky puts it) plowing virtual soil and planting virtual crops. These innovative social disruptions have happened quickly, but not from within the existing organizational structures. For example, Facebook did not disrupt phone communication by changing the nature of phone calls or phones. Facebook built an entirely new system that eventually circled back around to phones by the way of phone apps. In the same way, the trick to developing a personal learning system is to abandon thinking about how to build it from within the existing edu-

“For deep learning to occur, we need repeated exposure to information plus time for reflection.”

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January-February 2011

cational system and to begin pondering how such a system could be developed outside of education. Educational institutions form a vast interconnected network, and while small changes can occur within the system, individual parts only have the ability to flex within their existing boundaries. For a personalized learning system to take hold inside education, it will have to be built on the outside. A Simple Idea: Learn This Let me propose a realistic scenario of what a true personalized learning system might look like and how it would function. We first have to create (1) a new layer of learning media in the background of the existing Internet and (2) an ecosystem of software to easily manage the learning media we engage with. In the same way we’ve integrated buttons like Twitter ’s “Tweet this” and Facebook’s “Like” at the end of videos, articles, and other media, imagine we now add a button for “Learn This.” Clicking this button (anywhere you find it) would bring you into an interface to help you learn the content. We don’t need a humanlike artificial intelligence to begin this journey. The technology for such a journey already exists and is simple enough to use with traditional learning methods. In the first version, learning should simply be by way of Socratic questioning, where questions are used to analyze concepts, to prod at the depth of knowledge, and to focus on principles, issues, or problems. Socratic questions are elegant because, unlike with other formats (e.g., multiple choice), learners must selfgenerate the answers rather than rely heavily on the ability to recognize a correct answer when they see it. The personal learning system would use a spaced repetition algorithm (SRA) to reintroduce the Socratic questions over time so that biological memory is more likely to grasp onto the ideas and information. For now, let’s call this system SOCRAIT (a play on “Socratic” that includes SOC for social, AI for artificial intelligence, and IT for information technology within its name). 14

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For example, suppose I read an article about digital copyright in educational settings, and I decide that it’s important for me to remember some of the details of this article. At the end of this article, I choose “Learn This” to add a question to my SOCRAIT question bank. Two options would appear: (1) write your own question or (2) choose from a list of questions written by others. If I choose the first option, I might write a simple question and answer for myself: “What are the allowable uses for copyrighted video in an educational setting?” Following this, I’d write a short summary or clip a few sentences of content from the article to summarize the answer to the question. Along with the question and answer, SOCRAIT would save the source URL (link to the content),

January-February 2011

Learn This! SOCRAIT Questions for “The World Is My School”

and I could tag the question with metadata tags I indicate (e.g., copyright, digital copyright, and education). Later in the day or the week, when I have some down time, I could re engage with SOCRAIT. Here’s how it would work: I read or listen to a question, answer it in my head or out loud, view or listen to the answer, rate my understanding, and go to the next question. Since the learning is tailored to intrinsic motivations, learners could rate their own ability to answer a question (e.g., 1 = I have no clue, 2 = I knew some of it, and 3 = I nailed it!), and SOCRAIT could make decisions based on these ratings. If your rating of understanding is low or spotty, the system would offer to send you back to the source for another look. Notice that there is no need to develop software to verify the answers to questions—if you aren’t good at rating your own understanding (we call this metacognition), this will come out later in the process, and you’ll have to learn to get better at it. With a rudimentary computer interface, like the one imple-

Author Maria H. Andersen offers the following questions as sample Socraticlearning prompts for readers of this article. • What technologies are we likely to see in personalized learning systems on the 20–50 year horizon? • What arguments are made for the likelihood that we can “find” the free time to engage in a personal learning system? • Why are Socratic questions and spaced repetition algorithms (SRA) an elegant solution to the personalized learning problem? • How are responses evaluated in the proposed SOCRAIT system? • What evidence do we have that people will be willing to put in the cognitive energy to create a learning layer on the Web? • How could SOCRAIT be used by journalism to improve the revenue stream? • How would the SOCRAIT model change the way we consume media? • What are Socratic scholars and what function do they serve? • If SOCRAIT were implemented, how would the role of educators shift? • What is the “game layer for learning” and why is it necessary for something like SOCRAIT to work? • What is needed to build a system like SOCRAIT?

Personal Learning’s Implications For Education

ture needs to develop organically around Web-based content and grow tendrils into everything we produce in the future. It will take some time to go back and create a learning layer to integrate with all the content that we already have, but as we’ve seen from projects like Wikipedia, there are people willing to contribute their time and energy to these kinds of tasks. Wikipedia became the largest encyclopedia ever assembled within a mere six years after its creation, and was built using less than 1% of the time that Americans spend watching TV every year (as calculated by Clay Shirky). A system like SOCRAIT has the potential to benefit other industries outside of education. For example, modern journalism has been struggling with a problem of income stream. While revenue has shifted to online advertising, it is not enough to shore up the industry. At present, the vast majority of Internet content is free and, as Chris Anderson argues in his book Free (Hyperion, 2009), it’s not likely to change. How do you get readers (or viewers) to pay for something that they already get for free? The answer: Add something to the content that’s not already there. If readers or viewers had the ability to quickly add reputable questions to their learning bank, this would be a value-added service. Cleverly, the

Now let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. Any content that exists on the Internet (or is connected to the Internet) would be tagged with Socratic learning questions and metadata for subjects. Learners would have their own bank of questions, personalized to their own learning interests. As a result, instead of learning that is designed around a physical place (e.g., schools), an educational space (e.g., learning management systems), or a person of authority (e.g., instructor), this system is designed around the learner. It goes without saying that the implications for education are huge. In the space of a few years, we could develop a completely separate content learning system that’s incredibly flexible and personalized to the interests of the learner. The architec-

“For a personalized learning system to take hold inside education, it will have to be built on the outside.”

mented in Google Voice, there’s no reason why SOCRAIT couldn’t be voice-based and available anywhere we interact with computers (e.g., cell phones, tablets, auto navigation systems). This would allow us to improve our learning while performing other tasks: commuting to work, making dinner, or walking the dogs. Initially, the so-called “Pareto’s Vital Few” (the 20% of people who get 80% of the work done) would be the ones who would be most interested in creating and engaging with questions. But as the connectedness of the system matures, the need to write your own Socratic questions would lessen. Authors and media creators would write their own questions, targeting comprehension of important ideas and facts. Media consumers would be able to choose from a list of questions, perhaps seeing a sorted list based on their indicated learning priorities. Two readers of the same article would see different questions at the top of their “suggested questions” based on tags of the content. In some cases, the user might choose to pay for curated or reputable content so that their learning can later be certified by an employer, educational body, or organization.

“To learn, to analyze, to innovate, and to think creatively, we must internalize some of the information we process.” media content would remain free, but access to the question bank would require a one-time payment or ongoing subscription by the consumer. This would certainly help modern journalism (or the textbook industry) to shore up their revenue stream. A New Learning Ecosystem Books like Nicholas Carr ’s The Shallows (W.W. Norton, 2010) cause us to question whether we might be trapped on the information superhighway—stuck on the line between data lanes and unable to scoot forward or backward. Twitter users regularly use the phrase “drink from the fire hose” when referring to their experience of dipping into the live data stream. Information, whether it be from radio, television, print, Web media, or social networks, is coming at us too quickly; all that most of us can do is surface-skim, rarely pausing to reflect or think deeply. To learn, to analyze, to innovate, and to think creatively, we must internalize some of the information we process. An entirely new ecosystem could grow up around this Socratic learning system. Certainly a ratings system for questions could be built using the technology developed by companies like Netflix. For example,

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January-February 2011

“Your friends John and Iveta chose this question. Would you like to see other questions/media they chose for this topic?” If you choose to do so, the questions you see when you add content to your question bank could be filtered by your existing social networks. Rather than showing all the possible questions in existence for that media (which could become a fairly lengthy list), you could choose to see only the ones people in your social network have also used. So far, I’ve discussed how the system would work if you engaged in reading and watching media as you do today. However, such a system could also shift how and when we seek out content. After all, a lot of time is wasted in modern education by re-teaching content that some of the learners already know. There is no incentive for students to get ahead when the reward is sitting through a lecture on something they’ve already learned. Imagine: When you need to learn something new, you could subscribe to a curated collection of questions on that topic. For example, “Digital Copyright 101” might be a collection of questions developed by somebody who teaches digital copyright policy to beginners. The truly fascinating shift is that you wouldn’t necessarily start by consuming the media that goes with the questions. Instead, you would simply start answering the questions in your bank. As you encounter learning questions that you can’t answer, you could dive into the content at those points in time—this is the exact point between boredom (with things you already know) and frustration (with things you don’t know), the point to engage in learning. Testing Knowledge Acquisition Almost immediately after the personalized learning architecture is in place, we will need a new educational industry tasked with certifying knowledge and understanding. For lack of a better name, let’s call these folks “Socratic scholars.” Their job will be to rate how well you know what you claim to have learned. For example, let’s say I’ve engaged with and theoretically 16

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“When you need to learn something new, you could subscribe to a curated collection of questions on that topic.” learned 500 tagged questions on biochemistry to prepare for teaching a new class. In order for this to count toward my professional development hours, my college asks me to certify the learning. I pay for a Socratic scholar who specializes in chemistry to rate my knowledge. We meet either in person or via the Web (more likely) and have a discussion about the questions in my learning bank on biochemistry. The scholar has access to the 500 questions I say I’ve mastered and asks me to answer a random selection. Of course, this is where it would be valuable to have reputable questions in my learning bank (from authors, researchers, scientists, and leaders in the field). Since the scholar can see both my questions and the answers (linked back to original content), it should not be difficult to ascertain whether I have, in fact, mastered the knowledge and concepts as I have claimed. Because the certification is human-to-human, and not human-to-machine, the nuances of human language would be understood. So if the language of the verbal answer and the language of the written answer don’t match up exactly, that wouldn’t be a problem. At the end of the session, the scholar would “grade” my understanding of the 500 questions on biochemistry, and I could provide this certification to the human resources department. In many respects, this is a much better system than what we have to-

January-February 2011

day. For most certification of learning, we simply look at a transcript. If the class is listed, we assume the learner has that knowledge. Of course, knowledge ages—sometimes it evolves into understanding or wisdom, and sometimes it fades out of existence. The fact that I earned a chemistry degree in 1996 does not mean you would want to hire me as a chemist today. Ideally, you’d want me to recertify before I entered the “chemist” job pool. Biological memory is not reflected in the metrics of transcripts or grade point averages. I am not saying that this “certified” content knowledge equals the ability to function as a practitioner in the discipline. Even a diploma only indicates that the educational system has walked you through some series of appropriate paces for the discipline. Skills like critical thinking and creativity are often lost in education (especially in science and technology) because there is such an incredible amount of content to cover. However, if the content knowledge moved outside the educational system, then educators could focus on the learning that surrounds technical knowledge instead (e.g., problem solving, analysis, creativity, applications). Let’s imagine what would happen if a robust Socratic learning system was at the heart of the educational system. A learning coach (a more appropriate term for the teacher or instructor in this learner-centered environment) will designate some core material that he or she wants you to learn. For example, in calculus, I might use a set of 500 curated concept-oriented questions from a wellknown calculus textbook author, with each question linking to supporting media. Every student would be working on those questions, and so, as a learning community, we’d all work on that together. I would hope that this doesn’t sound like too radical a departure from normal. This is where it changes: Because every student has different interests and career ambitions, I would also require that each student find an additional 100 questions tagged with both calculus and tags that are of interest to that student. For a student studying to be a doctor, questions

tagged with medicine or epidemiology might be appropriate. For a student going into business, questions tagged with marketing or management might be more appropriate. As the learning coach, my job is no longer to “deliver content” to the students. SOCRAIT does that. Now I can use my time to help students search for good questions, help them to understand the content they are learning, provide activities to help them work with the concepts or connect the material in an applied way, and foster discussion with other students on these topics. When it comes time to certify the learning for each student, it is done by an oral interview in which I have access to the common questions and the personalized questions for each student. Even if I’m not an expert on all the personalized questions, the answers are provided and the content is related to a subject of my expertise. Again, I only have to ask about a random selection of questions to be able to assess understanding. At the end of the semester, all students have learned their own personal versions of calculus, while still learning a core of common material. Such a system has implications for lifelong learning “on the job,” too. Instead of holding mandatory training, a human resources department could push out a bank of Socratic questions to all their employees about safety, new initiatives, mission statements, etc. For example, to train employees on Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) compliance, the employees would be invited to add a curated list of 40 questions about OSHA policies. Each question would lead back to a source that provides the necessary content to answer the question. After two weeks, someone in HR can act as the Socratic scholar and spend five minutes with each employee to test his or her knowledge of the policies, using a random selection of questions. A Game Layer for Learning Futurist John Smart writes about a coming “valuecosm” within 10 to 20 years, when we’ll be able to program our apps or avatars to make decisions for us based on what we say is our set

of values. The real question is whether learning can become one of our new values, especially in the United States. In 2009, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that the average American adult spent more than five hours per day on leisure activities (close to three of those leisure hours watching television) and about 30 minutes per day on educational activities. Given the 10:1 ratio of leisure to educational activities, is American culture likely to embrace learning as a choice? Initially my answer was no, but then I began to think about video-game design. Entrepreneur Seth Priebatsch spoke at TEDxBoston (2010) about building a “game layer on top of the world.” What if one of the game layers we create surrounds learning? The same game dynamics used to build successful video games (e.g., appointment dynamics, influence and status dynamics, and progression dynamics) could be deployed to make learning the game itself. While this might still be a hard sell for the average adult, there will be sub populations, such as early technology adapters, who will see the immediate value in cultivating and learning from their own question banks. Children who grow up learning with a Socratic question system might gain learning values naturally and carry these to their adult lives. A successful Spaced Repetition Socratic Learning System (SRSLS) would have to entice you to keep to specific goals, like answering 50 questions per week or answering 100 questions with a certain tag in the next month. Any of these goals could be incentivized with points (1 question answered correctly = 1 point), incentive rewards for meeting certain goals (“you’ve earned your Silver Calculus badge for 100 questions learned”), and social status levels (“Maria has just become a Calculus Master—can you do it too?”). Those engaged in formal education would participate with a far greater intensity of daily questions than those who are in the workforce. However, the wise worker would continue to learn, albeit at a slower pace. Résumés would boast levels of knowledge on particular topics and stats on the intensity at which you

participate in learning. Let’s Build It A diploma has become a social signal to stop learning. In today’s world, where technical knowledge doubles every two years, this is absolutely the wrong thing to do. Careers shift overnight, and industries collapse rapidly. We have to learn, and learn faster than we ever have before, in order to stay ahead of the problems we are now creating. The content for a system like SOCRAIT already exists; it is the architecture and interface we are missing. This new learning medium needs to be an interconnected network of user-generated, or author-generated, Socratic questions with a seamless question-management interface. The architecture needs to remain open so that anyone can create questions on any content, and any developer can build applications for the computing device of his or her choice. A system for personalized learning will not grow from inside formal education. Education is like a field that’s been overplanted with only small patches of fertile soil. Too many stakeholders (parents, unions, administration, faculty, etc.) compete to promote various ideas about how to change, acting like weeds or plagues that choke off plant growth. The fresh and fertile soil of the open Web can foster the quick growth of a personalized learning system. Then, like a good fertilizer, it can be used to replenish the soil of formal education and help us to reach that “Holy Grail” of education: personalized learning for all. ❏ About the Author Maria H. Andersen is the Learning Futurist for The LIFT Institute at Muskegon Community College, Muskegon, Michigan. She has degrees in mathematics, chemistry, biology, business, and (ABD) Higher Education Leadership. She is considered an expert in educational technology and has been studying, researching, speaking, and writing about the future of education and learning for several years, including at the World Future Society’s 2010 meeting. E-mail busynessgirl@gmail.com or search @busynessgirl on Twitter.

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By John M. Eger

Pleasure, Beauty, AnD wonder: Educating for the Knowledge Age

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WOLF TRAP FOUNDATION FOR THE PERFORMING ARTS / PRNEWSFOTO / NEWSCOM

The future workforce will need to be more innovative, argues a communications and public policy scholar. While math and science are important, they need to be infused with the creative spark that comes from the arts. The challenge today is not in acquiring information, but rather in determining what information is most accurate and relevant to us. Knowing how to separate good from bad information and knowing which information has value in our quest for knowledge and wisdom is a unique and essential skill. And the demand for a new workforce to meet these challenges is rapidly increasing. As a special report in Business Week magazine observed several years ago, “The game is changing. It isn’t just about math and science anymore. It’s about creativity, imagination, and, above all, innovation.” Most analysts studying the new global economy agree that the growing creative and innovative economy represents a central ingredient in defining future success. But how do we make someone innovative and creative? What must schools—from kindergartens to universities—and communities do to nurture and attract the most innovative and creative workers? “We need a system that grounds all students in pleasure, beauty, and wonder,” says Dana Gioia, chairman of the U.S. National Endowment for the Arts. “It is the best way to create Opposite page: Artist inspires students to express themselves in a class participating in the Wolf Trap Teaching Artists program. The Wolf Trap Foundation for the Performing Arts in Vienna, Virginia, is a participant in the national Early Childhood STEM Learning Through the Arts program to integrate arts into science and math learning in pre-K and kindergarten classrooms.

citizens who are awakened not only to their humanity, but to the human enterprise that they inherit and will—for good or ill—perpetuate. … [America] is not going to succeed through cheap labor or cheap raw materials, nor even the free flow of capital or a streamlined industrial base. To compete successfully, this country needs creativity, ingenuity, innovation.” Learning to learn and finding the joy of learning in an age where people could go through a dozen jobs well before middle age has greatly complicated matters. Now add in the probability that tomorrow’s top jobs haven’t even been imagined yet because they’ll use technologies that haven’t been invented, as former U.S. Secretary of Education Richard Riley has suggested. Clearly we are headed into a new and uncertain future.

Do We Need More Math and Science? Just a few years ago, the America Competes Act was signed into law by then–President Bush, authorizing $151.2 million to help students earn bachelor ’s degrees in math or science, $125 million to help math and science teachers get teaching credentials, and additional monies to create more educational programs at the kindergarten through 12th-grade level to align math and science curricula in preparation for college. Chester E. Finn Jr. and Diane Ravitch, both former assistant secretaries of education, complained

loudly, “This is a mistake that will ill serve our children while misconstruing the true nature of American competitiveness and the challenges we face in the twenty-first century. Worthy though these skills are, they ignore at least half of what has long been regarded as a well-rounded education in Western civilization: literature, art, music, history, civics, and geography.” In truth, U.S. education needs a huge infusion of capital and a change in attitude for both art and music and math and science. Importantly, we need to define a well-rounded education and to make the case for its importance in a global innovation economy. The evidence for such an effort is slowly mounting. Robert Root-Bernstein, a biochemist and MacArthur Foundation Fellow, completed a study of 150 eminent scientists from Pasteur to Einstein. His findings were startling to those educators lobbying for more emphasis on the sciences, for he discovered that nearly all of the great inventors and scientists were also musicians, artists, writers, or poets. Galileo, for example, was a poet and literary critic. Einstein was a passionate student of the violin. And Samuel Morse, the father of telecommunications and inventor of the telegraph, was a portrait painter. In Sparks of Genius (Houghton Mifflin, 2000), Root-Bernstein and his wife, Michele, examine the minds of inventive people and show that creativity is something that both artists and scientists can learn and, more importantly, that the seemingly disparate disciplines of art and science, music and math, complement and enhance one another.

All People Learn Differently Perhaps as a consequence of oward Gardner ’s pioneering H research on multiple intelligences and the idea that all children learn differently, various practical applications are evident throughout the United States. More than ten years ago in New York’s South Bronx, the poorest congressional district in the United States, the start of something profound was first reported in a PBS

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special documentary called Something within Me. In a place where only one in four children once graduated from high school, a small school called St. Augustine boasted that 95% of its students read at or above grade level, and 95% met New York state academic standards. These were highly significant achievements despite a student population that was 100% minority, with many of the children living in single-parent homes in communities plagued by AIDS, crime, substance abuse, and violence. What was the secret of the school’s success? St. Augustine infused every discipline—math, history, science, and biology—with dance, music, creative writing, and visual arts. Sadly, as the parish was located in an extremely poor neighborhood, the school was eventually closed for lack of funds.

Educating Artfully In 2002, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors adopted “Arts for All: A Regional Blueprint for Arts Education.” The program’s vision is for every public school student in the county to receive an effective K-12 education, of which the arts are an important component. The county hopes that all of its school districts will eventually acknowledge that exposure to and “participation in the arts strengthens a child’s academic development and growth as an individual; prepares the child to feel a part of and make a contribution to the community; and ensures a creative and competent workforce to meet the economic opportunities of both the present and the future.” Thus, sequential instruction in the multiple arts disciplines will be scheduled into each school day and accounted for in the budget of every Los Angeles County school. The Chicago Arts Partnership in Education (CAPE) offers a model of interdisciplinary collaboration, using arts integration as a way to approach thinking and learning; the program encourages schools to reach out to community resources and to make connections to the school curriculum. Such a multidisciplinary approach encourages leaders of young learners 20

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to see the connections between the knowledge that they are acquiring in, for instance, a unit in mathematics and a unit in social studies, or in a science unit and a language arts unit. This approach illustrates integrative thinking as it is actually done in the real world. High Tech High (HTH) in San Diego is another remarkable example of art infusion, indeed infusion of all the various disciplines. HTH is a charter school well funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Gary Jacobs family (founder of Qualcomm), and many San Diego businesses. It consists of six schools: three high schools, two middle schools, and one elementary school, with a total of 2,500 students and 200 employees. One hundred percent of graduates have been admitted to college, 80% to four-year institutions of higher learning. At High Tech High, there is no math class or art, though these disciplines are still taught and still relevant. Instead, they are infused in the curriculum, integrated into larger questions like: “How does the world work?” “Who lives here?” “Why does this matter?” Each semester the entire faculty and student body are assigned a topic they work together on that draws on all the disciplines, thereby forcing students to work collaboratively on real-world problems. Larry Rosenstock, CEO of High Tech High, points with pride to these projects, as they bring all the disciplines and all the energy and intellect of the class together. The design principles of the school—”person alization, adult-world connection, and common intellectual mission”— are unified. Rosenstock has been accused of running “an art school in disguise.” Others have complained about the way the school teaches math. Indeed, High Tech High is not a school many of us would immediately recognize. It is a place and a curriculum that has turned the K-12 world upside down.

Changing Lenses Maybe we really need to go back to basics and ask what the purpose of

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public education is. What do we consider an educated person to be? Maybe we need to change the vocabulary of the educational establishment, change the lenses in the camera, and in the process awaken to the competitive demands of this new age. A few universities do seem to be exploring the best way to blur the lines between art and humanities and science and mathematics, and to overcome the divide between these two cultures. At Binghamton University, for instance, biology professor David Sloan Wilson and English professor Leslie Heywood collaborated to create a program that builds on some of the themes explored in Wilson’s evolutionary studies courses, which have proved enormously popular with science and nonscience majors alike. “You can study music, dance, narrative storytelling, and art making scientifically, and you can conclude that, yes, they’re deeply biologically driven, they’re essential to our species, but there would still be something missing,” Wilson says, “and that thing is an appreciation for the work itself, a true understanding of its meaning in its culture and context.” As a whole new economy based upon creativity and innovation emerges—the dawn of the “Creative Age”—the importance of reinventing business strategies, corporations, communities, schools, and more is critical. Nothing can remain the same if we are to survive, let alone succeed, in this new global economy. We in the United States need to redesign our high school and college curricula in particular, to focus on preparing students for this new competition. Yet today, in the rush to confront the wave of outsourcing and offshoring, it is math and science alone that are urged upon young people, to our peril and that of future generations across the world. ❏ About the Author John M. Eger is the Van Deerlin Endowed Chair of Communications and Public Policy at San Diego State University and director of the Creative and Innovative Economy Initiative. E‑mail jeger@mail.sdsu.edu.

© 2010 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • www.wfs.org • All rights reserved. The da Vinci Si HD Surgical System from Intuitive Surgical was first introduced in 1997 and is touted as being cleaner and safer than traditional surgery. It features two surgeon consoles, a patient cart, and a vision cart (far right). An endoscopic camera allows surgeons to control the proceedings from consoles remotely.

By Vladimir Mironov

The Future of Medicine:

Are Custom-Printed Organs on the Horizon? Medical researchers are creating robots that can bioprint new tissue and organs directly into patients’ bodies while performing surgery—without assistance from doctors. Sometime in the future, completely automated multifunctional robotic systems may be able to perform surgical operations with great precision—and without requiring surgeons to be present in the operation room. These surgical robots will likely be used mainly for minute cutting and suturing procedures that surgeons’ hands are incapable of performing. They will also be able to do something else that surgeons cannot do—create new tissue. This will enable rapid and complete healing, with superior clinical results. Great strides have been made already. The first robot-assisted closed chest coronary artery bypass graft procedure was performed in 1998, at the Leipzig Heart Centre in Germany. In 2009, the first all-robotic-assisted kidney transplant was performed at Saint Barnabas Medical Center in Livingston, New Jersey.

One of the first and most commercially successful medical robotic systems is the da Vinci System from Intuitive Surgical Inc. The da Vinci System was developed at Stanford Research Institute International and introduced in 1997. It is now installed in close to a thousand hospitals around the world and is fast becoming an iconic image of surgery in the twenty-first century. The newest da Vinci surgical robotic system, released in 2009, is capable of performing minimally invasive surgery. An endoscopic camera allows surgeons to control the proceedings from a remote console. The system cannot function autonomously, however. Rather, it enhances the capabilities of surgeons in technologically sophisticated ways. The practical application of robots in surgery is becoming more widely accepted in the medical field, and the

first textbooks describing robotic surgery are starting to appear. However, the commercial success of companies producing medical robotic equipments is perhaps the strongest indicator that this field is rapidly developing and will continue to grow. The U.S. market alone for medical robotics and computer-assisted surgical equipment was an estimated $1 billion in 2010 and is projected to reach $1.5 billion by 2014.

Bioprinting Technology Emerges Over the next 20 years, in vivo bioprinting technology may become possible. Bioprinting is a rapid prototyping process that is a means of patterning and assembling, layer by layer, functional living tissue, as well as nonliving substitutes for hard tissue, such as ceramic and titanium. Increasingly sophisticated bioprinters are becoming commercially available, and soon they may be able to “print” complex cellular structures, such as human organs, directly into the human body.

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ENVISIONTEC

The 3D-Bioplotter from envisionTEC utilizes computer-aided design to engineer different types of tissue on a variety of scaffolding platforms. The scaffolds, which are constructed from a wide variety of materials ranging from collagen to titanium, help determine how the replacement tissue will grow.

Several specialized research centers focused on bioprinting and biofabrication have emerged around the world, including the Advanced Tissue Biofabrication Center at the Medical University of South Carolina, of which I am the director. The organization of a bioprinting society or academy and integrated global networks of such research centers will likely happen soon. The main difference between bioprinting and other types of 3-D printing is the fact that bioprinters largely process and dispense living cells, which are extremely sensitive to harsh environments. From an engineering point of view, high temperature and toxicity (typical for rapid prototyping technologies and processes) are not acceptable for the bioprinting process. Bioprinters must have the ability to precisely place or dispense living material in 3-D space. This is usually realized with the help of a “robotic hand,” or X-Y-Z axis robotic precision positioning systems. Bioprinters must also have an automated syringe or other form of cartridge to facilitate the automated dispensing of living materials. Finally, printed tissue constructs must be collected in either a standard Petri dish or the more sophisticated chambers of a perfusion bioreactor. Since living tissue can survive only 22

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in wet conditions, a perfusion bio reactor is of utmost importance. The device maintains such an environment, provides nutrition and oxygen to the living cells, and can be used for accelerated tissue maturation using chemical and mechanical conditioning. In vivo bioprinting renders the perfusion bioreactor obsolete, however—all that would be required is a room in which to operate. The first commercial bioprinter, the 3D-Bioplotter, was produced by the German company envisionTEC. The beautifully designed, futuristiclooking machine resembles a gleaming bandsaw crossed with an advanced chemistry set. The uniquely multifunctional system is operated from a PC workstation and utilizes computer-aided design (CAD) to engineer different types of tissue on a variety of scaffolding platforms. The scaffolds are constructed from a wide variety of materials, ranging from collagen (for soft tissue) to titanium (for hard tissue such as bone). These scaffolds direct how the replacement tissue will grow.

The Business Prospects of Bioprinting A number of other companies are now producing commercial bioprinters as well. From an engineering

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point of view, the bioprinter is much simpler and cheaper to manufacture than, say, cars (which retail for ten times less than the average commercial bioprinter). Their relatively high price tag is justifiable only by the fact that the market for bioprinters up until now has been limited to academic research centers. Due to high competition and limited markets, these companies will likely have a hard time surviving. The only way to make the emerging bioprinting industry profitable and commercially sustainable is to find new markets. Up until now, the two main driving forces behind funding the development of robotic surgery systems have been military and space exploration needs. In both cases, the imperative has been to develop the capabilities for distant telesurgery because of such practical considerations as treating astronauts in the midst of a mission and bringing surgeons onto a battlefield. There are currently two main market segments for bioprinting. One is the bioprinting of functional human tissue and organ constructs or substitutes for implantation into patients. The other is bioprinting or biofabrication of 3-D in vitro human mini- tissue assays for drug discovery, drug toxicity, and in vitro modeling of human disease—pharmaceutical research, in other words. While there has been tremendous progress in stem-cell research, there are not yet any bioprinted human tissue assays that are able to reveal potential side effects comparable with preclinical trials on animals, much less clinical trials on human patients. It is likely that this situation will eventually improve and that bioprinters will play a key part in drug discovery and drug toxicity. However, at this stage, there is not much demand for bioprinters from Big Pharma. It has been demonstrated at the Medical University of South Carolina and elsewhere that fabricating an intra-organ branched vascular tree is possible. A bioprinted organ construct will not survive without it, so building a vascular tree is critically important. To date, the regenerative medicine company Organovo has had the greatest amount of success

bioprinting branched segments of a vascular tree. Organovo’s bioprinter is a modified and improved version of the original bioprinter developed at the Medical University of South Carolina. Bioprinted human organs can be perfused with blood—or at least a blood surrogate for now. Rather than being fabricated onto a solid scaffolding platform, the organs would be best supported by a temporary biodegradable and biocompatible template composed of hydrogel, which is more than 90% water. If the patient’s own cells are used, then, at least in theory, there is no chance for such complications as immune rejection, foreign body reaction, or tumor formations (as is the case with human embryonic stem cells). However, due to extremely complex regulations for bioprinted organs such as kidneys, it is safe to say that it will take at least several decades and hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars to bring the first bioprinted organ to the market. According to some estimates, it took around 10 years and $200 million to bring relatively simple engineered tissue products such as skin or cartilage to the market. The complexity of fabricating human organs (compared with human tissue) dramatically drives up these figures as well. The effects of such technology could be far-reaching and revolutionary. In theory, at least, it could extend life indefinitely and enable individuals to retain their youthful vigor well into old age. In addition to saving lives, the technology could also spark future cosmetic surgery or “body fashion” trends among those with the means to afford it. For example, if you were unhappy with the shape of your nose or ear, you could pay to have it removed and then reprinted in vivo in the desired shape. Those suffering from male pattern baldness could have a new head of hair bioprinted, via a soft hydrogel platform, using their own stem cells.

In Vivo Bioprinting: A Scenario A famous football player injures his knee during a mid-season game. The diagnosis is severe cartilage damage. This injury will sideline him for the rest of the season—and most likely end his career. However, his doctors tell him about a new in vivo bioprinting clinic in Charleston, South Carolina, that may be able to help. An appointment is made. At the start of the operation, four endoscopic devices are introduced into the star athlete’s knee cavity. One has a miniature camera attached to it that enables the operating surgeon to see, the second provides laser technology, a third device eliminates tissue, and the fourth injects living stem cells isolated from the patient’s fat tissue and suspended in hydrogel. The robot, controlled by a surgeon visually monitoring the procedure, removes the damaged car-

tilage using a tissue plasma evaporator. Next, the patient’s own stem cells mixed with photosensitive hydrogel are injected into the area and immediately p olymerized by the laser beam. Finally, the endoscopic operating tools are removed and the injured skin is sprayed with a mixture of self-assembling skin cells suspended in hydrogel. The entire operation takes just over 20 minutes. Afterwards, the patient stands up, walks out the door, and heads home, without feeling any pain. He shows up to football practice the next day. Fast forward to five years later. This has now become a routine operation worldwide. Many patients who suffered for decades from crippling arthritis or other diseases are now able to work and move with the strength and vitality of teenagers. —Vladimir Mironov

Feasibility Projects A number of groups around the world have demonstrated the principal feasibility of in vivo bioprinting

The da Vinci Si Patient Cart features up to four interactive robotic arms with detachable and interchangeable instruments that are controlled remotely by surgeons. It is able to perform minimally invasive endoscopic procedures.

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ORGANOVO

An Organovo scientist starts printing cells according to a computerized plan using the NovoGen MMX Bioprinter. The San Diego-based regenerative medicine company has developed a promising method of bioprinting branched segments of a vascular tree, which involves bioprinting blood vessels inside tissue, starting with cellular building blocks. The process relies on the cells’ own ability to self-assemble and become tissue.

technology. A group from the University of Bordeaux headed by Fabien Guillemot made the first attempt to bioprint bone tissue. A high-throughput biological laser printing device outputed nano- hydroxyapatite, which mimics both the structure and the mineral component of bone, into a model in vivo. Reported results obtained by decalcified histological sections and X-ray microtomography demonstrated that the in vivo bioprinting of bone tissue is possible. Cornell University biomedical engineering professor Laurence Bonasar has successfully bioprinted artificially created cartilage directly onto bone using the Fab@ home printer (fabber) and cartilage cells suspended in hydrogel. The Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine recently reported success with inkjet bioprinting skin into live animals. In tests done on mice, bioprinting drastically reduced the time it took for wounds to completely heal, from five weeks to just two weeks. How does inkjet bioprinting work? First, the computer scans the wound area and determines the size and shape of the skin wound. Next, a bioprinter sequentially jets two different layers of cells—first fibroblasts (the main cell type of the skin’s connective tissue), then keratinocytes (the main cell type of the epidermis) —directly onto the wound. After that, the cells take over and the healing process begins. Although inkjet bioprinting was originally developed by Thomas Boland at Clemson University, this is 24

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the first report on inkjet bioprinting living cells in vivo in laboratory animals. As mentioned above, one apparent benefit is that this process accelerates the healing process—at least in animals. Baxter International has already developed an FDA- approved commercial spraying device using fibrin glue that can be adapted for spraying a mixture of living skin epithelial cells with fibrin hydrogel. Similar experiments have been performed at Freiburg University in Germany and by several startup companies in Israel. In vivo bioprinting has obvious limitations and challenges. University of Washington Department of Surgery professor Richard M. Satava has written, “There are many challenges to in vivo printing, especially whether the organ would survive if it was immediately hooked into the blood/nerve supply, or whether an ‘incubation-nurture’ period was necessary.” Also, newer, smarter, more miniaturized bioprinters must be developed that can integrate seamlessly with existing and emerging robotic surgery systems. Progress in the application of rapid prototyping in tissue engineering will depend on how fast we move bioprinting from the lab to the patient.

Robotic Surgical Systems with Artificial Intelligence Surgery professor Satava considers surgical robots to be information systems. This insight may not be so important for the first generation of robotic surgical systems, which really

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only enhance the movements of surgeons’ hands, as is the case with the da Vinci system. However, a blueprint or computer-aided design is necessary in bioprinting. This information is saved as a sterolithography file format, or STL file, commonly used in 3-D modeling. STL files divide the original design into layers and create detailed “printing” instructions, telling the machine what to dispense and where. If one can program all accumulated biomedical knowledge about anatomy and pathology into a robot with a large amount of memory and fast processing, and create correspondent operating software, then that robot could automatically select the best options for patients. This potentially makes a robotic bioprinter even more capable than the best-trained, most experienced surgeon. Moreover, ideally, the actual clinical image acquired from the patient must be compared with a preexisting file of the healthy patient. In the case of in vivo bioprinting, information must be patient-specific—a standard one-size-fits-all approach would not work. The CAD information will need to be transformed into STL files that later enable layer-by-layer living material deposition. In order to fabricate patient- specific tissue and organs at a cellular level, one must know that patient’s exact clinical anatomy. Therefore, demand for knowledge of personalized clinical anatomy presented in CAD and bioprinterfriendly STL files will only continue to grow. One day, it may be possible for surgical robots to work interactively with a large medical information database in real time. The possibilities for improving and advancing intelligent robotic surgical systems are limited solely by imagination. ❏

About the Author Vladimir Mironov is an associate professor and director of the Advanced Tissue Biofabrication Center at the Department of Regenerative Medicine and Cell Biology, Medical University of South Carolina. E-mail mironovv@musc.edu.

A Convenient Truth About Clean Energy By Carl E. Schoder

The Earth is awash in energy; we just need new infrastructure to tap it. A chemical engineer shows how we could break free of fossil fuels by deploying the power of ammonia and hydrogen. The prototype Hydrogen Hub electricity system can power a building complex with anhydrous ammonia fuel. The system captures energy from renewable energy sources and stores it in anhydrous ammonia. © JACK ROBERTSON / NORTHWEST HYDROGEN ALLIANCE

Gas stations will make way for vehicle refueling stations that generate energy on-site via solar and wind power. This scene on the Dahme River outside Berlin, Germany, shows one such present-day refueling station. The boats draw power from the solar energy reserves.

he convenient truth is that the world does not have an energy shortage; it simply lacks an energy infrastructure capable of using the abundant source of solar energy that we receive from the sun every day. The current worldwide demand of about 363 terawatt-hours per day could be met by covering just 0.5% of the world’s land area with silicon solar panels. Doing so, and building out other necessary infrastructure requirements, could meet our energy needs and eliminate dependency on nonrenewable petroleum. As we examine our energy future, we should keep in mind three fundamental requirements: 1. Abundance. Because of the value that energy gives us in improvTHE FUTURIST

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ing the quality of life, the long-term abundance of an energy source and of the materials required to produce it is very important. 2. Cleanness and greenness.

Clean, green energy is important because we only have one Planet Earth. When we pollute and damage it, we are destroying our home. 3. Widely distributed availability.

Moving energy from point to point is an energy-consuming and wasteful practice, so ease of transport and accessibility are important considerations in building the energy future. Energy Supply We typically refer to fossil fuels as sources of energy. In reality, fossil fuels are stored forms of potential energy created from solar energy ages ago, so the real source was the sun. These fossil fuels are nonrenewable sources of energy; formed over eons, they are now being spent in a matter of decades. Gasoline, diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, hydrogen, and electricity are not true sources of energy because they need to be converted from other sources into these more convenient forms. Whenever one type of energy is converted into another type of energy, some of the source energy is lost as waste heat or friction (entropy). This entropy waste is one of many reasons why the conservation of all natural materials—including petroleum—is for the betterment of society. Solar energy, however, is different; it is constantly being generated and radiated into the universe. Any solar energy that we do not use becomes wasted light and heat energy, dispersed into the empty void of space as a sort of dark, weak energy that is unavailable for our use. A basic source of energy is fusion energy, which is in fact the primary source of all energy in the universe. Our sun is a fusion energy source, as are all of the billions of suns in the universe. Our sun has been producing reliable fusion energy for several billion years and is estimated to have a remaining life of more than 4.5 billion years. All we need is an infrastructure to collect and utilize the already ample solar energy it sends 26

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our planet’s surface daily—more than 2 million terawatt-hours. How much solar energy do we receive from the sun? Let us look briefly at the sources. Amount of Solar Energy Available There are four major types of energy sources that we get from the sun: heat, wind power, photosynthesis (biomass cultivation), and photovoltaic power. Heat is what warms the earth and makes it livable as a planet. Wind power is available, useful, and relatively inexpensive, but it is too limited to fulfill worldwide demands. Biomass is also an available option, but as a product of photosynthesis, it is less efficient than photovoltaic generation of electricity. Also, the competition for resources among agriculture, forestry, and energy must be carefully and cautiously evaluated before considering the use of biomass for energy on a large scale. Now let us look at how much photovoltaic solar energy is available from the sun. Starting with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solar Constant data measured at the stratosphere, we can estimate the average amount of sun continuously reaching the Earth’s surface at 174 watts per square meter, which obviously varies by latitude, season, cloud cover, and other variables. In the region from the southern tip of Greenland in the north to the outer rim of the Antarctic Circle in the south, where most of the energy demand is and where most of the solar energy generators would be constructed, the amount of continuous solar exposure is greater than average, so the 174 watts per square meter is a valid and conservative value for estimating solar generation potential. Energy Storage The key to fundamental requirement #3, availability of energy, is storage. We shall now examine ammonia as a viable carbon-free energy storage option. Ammonia (NH3) is a compound of one part nitrogen and three parts hydrogen. We are specifically interested in anhydrous ammonia (without water) as opposed to aqua ammonia,

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and with dissociated ammonia (the nitrogen and hydrogen components are split, with the resulting dissociated ammonia gas comprising 75% hydrogen by volume). Since dissociated ammonia is a gas, it is not a convenient storage medium. However, the combination of a tank of anhydrous ammonia connected to an on-demand ammonia dissociator is a surprisingly efficient energy storage and supply system. The “ammonia/dissociator” combination compares favorably with fossil fuels in volumetric energy density. In addition to its reasonable energy densities, ammonia and hydrogen are carbon-free energy sources. To be completely carbon-free, the source of hydrogen for the manufacture of the ammonia must be by water electrolysis. The electricity to electrolyze the water would be most efficiently provided from solar energy sources, such as photovoltaic or solar thermal collectors. An advantage of the anhydrous ammonia/dissociated ammonia energy storage system is that, by comparison, current battery technology is 15 to 60 times bulkier by volume. The Carbon-Free Energy World Of the Future I envision a combination of on-site and remote energy-generating facilities of appropriate sizes to be designed for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation energy sectors, with the emphasis on on-site facilities. A typical on-site, carbon-free energy system would consist of: • A solar array (PV or thermal). • An electricity converter system capable of supplying both DC and AC electricity. • A water electrolysis system. • A unit for extracting nitrogen from air. • A Haber-type ammonia generator making anhydrous ammonia from hydrogen and nitrogen. • An anhydrous ammonia storage tank. • An on-demand ammonia dissociator. • Various pumps and compressors.

The Aswan Dam in Egypt (pictured above) and other hydroelectric dams would be great sites for future solar-energy plants, according to Schoder. The solar plants could store their extra electricity in the dams’ reservoirs and harness it during nighttime hours.

U.S. Energy Consumption, Current and Potential (Average annual consumption, in Terawatt-hours) Fossil-Fuel Renewable Energy Energy Sector 2004-2007 2050 2004-2007 2050 Residential 1,814 36 146 1,924 Commercial 1,122 22 35 1,135 Industry 5,804 116 571 6,259 Transportation 8,218 164 127 8,059 U.S. Total 16,959 339 879 17,376

Total Consumption 2004-2007 2050 6,247 2,046 5,242 1,239 9,714 6,439 8,370 8,224 29,473 17,948

In a scenario assuming that 98% of energy is supplied by renewables, the United States could see 98% reductions of electricity retail sales and electrical system energy losses, and an overall savings of 39% in total average energy consumption by 2050. Source for 2004-2007 figures: U.S. Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Review, 2008. Author’s projections for 2050.

A wind turbine would be a desirable addition in areas of strong wind power. All of these system components are currently manufactured, but research and development would be required to provide a better variety of sizes and capacities for the various energy sectors. Let us design an energy system using the United States as an example, though the principles will be applicable to the whole world. We will look at the areas of housing, commerce, manufacturing, and transportation. The numbers are rounded calculations based upon U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) data for 2004 through 2007. Estimates can be made into the future using population extrapolations. The U.S. Energy Consumption table shows average annual consump-

tion for the four energy sectors and a what-if scenario involving the essential removal of all fossil fuels for energy generation. The numbers for 2050 show a future transition from fossil-fuel energy generating plants to mostly renewable-energy generating facilities, including the use of anhydrous ammonia with on-demand dissociators for space heating at night and when solar energy is limited. This would be supplemented as needed with some remote renewable energy generating facilities in areas of high wind or solar insolation. This change would have tremendous benefits in energy conservation, CO2 emission reductions, safety, and improved security. The numbers show a 39% decrease in U.S. energy consumption from more than 29,400 terawatt-hours per year to less than

Work crews gather on a Florida beach in the wake of the June 2010 Gulf Coast oil spill. Schoder points out that even though fossil-fuel electricity may now cost less per kilowatt than many renewable alternatives, it carries many hidden costs, such as unexpected environmental disasters.

18,000 terawatt-hours per year. There would also be a reduction in CO 2 emissions of about 98% from current energy generation using mostly fossil fuels. In all, it would be a huge step to a brighter, cleaner, and safer world of the future. It will be imperative to maintain an adequately up-to-date electricity grid. The grid will have a significantly diminished load, but it will still have to provide flexibility, load leveling, and backup for inevitable equipment and system failures, as well as the variability of local climate changes that affect solar energy generation. In addition, there will be some demand for large, remotely located solar-energy generating plants in areas with above-average solar insolation, such as the southwestern United States, to add energy to the grid as backup power. Consumption by Energy Sector • Residential consumption. U.S. households consume about 6,247 terawatt-hours of energy per year (not including energy used for transportation). But that total would transition to about 2,046 terawatt-hours per year in the homes of the future using on-site generation. The future household would have an on-site energy system to provide on-demand

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A Diagram of the Carbon-Free Energy System of the Future Sunlight

Wind

Power Grid

Oxygen to air

Homes, residences, farms, commercial, and industrial facilities Variable size on-site energy facilities

Nitrogen from air

Transportation refueling stations On-site energy facilities

Oxygen to air

Remote solar energy farms in areas of exceptionally high solar insolation Large scale, on-site renewable energy facilities

Water

Nitrogen from air

Remote wind energy farms in areas of exceptional wind intensity Wind turbines with AC generators to supply electricity to the power grid Fossil fuel refineries; nonfuel uses only On-site energy facilities to supply petrochemical raw materials to manufacturers of chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics and asphalt Existing nuclear energy plants

electricity and dissociated ammonia (75% hydrogen) for a 24-hour-perday energy supply. The house would have electric heat and/or a furnace, which would be fueled with dissociated ammonia. It would also have a dispensing station to provide electricity and ammonia to the family’s fuel-cell cars fueled by dissociated ammonia. A farmhouse would have a larger anhydrous ammonia synthesizer and storage tank for fertilizing crops. • Commercial buildings and facilities. Commercial buildings and facilities would reduce consumption to about one-fifth of current rates. Future commercial buildings would have systems similar to residential, but with a broader range of capacities. The facility would have electric heat and/or a furnace, which would be fueled with dissociated ammonia and a dispensing station to dispense electricity or ammonia to the business’s fuel-cell cars fueled by dissociated ammonia. • Industry and manufacturing fa28

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Fossil Fuels Waste heat and spent fuel rods Enriched uranium

cilities. The U.S. industrial sector

could shift to running on only twothirds of its present level of electricity consumption by 2050. Industrial facilities would also have on-site energy generating facilities similar to those described above but with an even greater variation of sizes and components. Existing industrial plants with limited open land may need to supplement their on-site generation with grid-supplied electricity from solar facilities in the southwestern United States (another reason to maintain the electric grid). • Transportation. Present-day “gas stations” would be replaced by transportation refueling stations that charge batteries and dispense anhydrous ammonia. Almost all transportation fuel would be generated onsite using photovoltaic and wind/ solar energy facilities. This would practically eliminate the transport of fuel by trucks on the highway system, which would reduce transportation consumption by about 146 terawatt-hours per year and signifi-

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cantly reduce the danger of collisions and spills on the highway system. An example of the transportation vehicle of the future is the Apollo Energy Systems electric car designs, such as the Silver Volt II, which has a patented propulsion system supplied by an anhydrous ammonia fuel tank. Research and development is needed to design similar propulsion systems for trucks, buses, trains, and airplanes. Lowering the Costs of Energy Solar energy has been wrongly conceived to be very expensive compared with fossil fuels. This is probably due to the idiosyncrasies of internalizing and externalizing various costs of energy. As the recent Deepwater Horizon’s oil platform explosion and resulting leak has shown, such costs have not been planned for and will now have to be added to the future cost of the supply of fossil fuels. The area of the costs of fossil fuels is indeed a messy, murky, smelly oligarchic sea. With the gradual buildup of a photovoltaic infrastructure, electricity and dissociated ammonia (75% hydrogen) will become the primary energy source for stationary needs and for transportation and other mobile needs. However, petroleum and other fossil-fuel resources will continue to be valuable and necessary commodities, since fossil resources have other uses than the production of energy. One-eighth of U.S. oil is not burned as fuel, but is instead used to make other materials, such as asphalt for roads and buildings, as well as fertilizers, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and other chemical products. There will be no serious abandonment or obsolescence of petroleum facilities. Older facilities will gradually be phased out and not replaced. New high-efficiency refineries can be built to supply feedstock for the nonenergy products of fossil resources. High-efficiency vehicles, machinery and systems, as well as conservation, will be needed to move toward energy sustainability. Over several decades, the world will go from a primarily carbonbased energy system to a primarily

“solar-ammonia-hydrogen” energy system. Carbon-dioxide emissions will be greatly reduced, and global warming may cease to be a problem. The environment will be cleaner, safer, and more secure. Underwater oil wells will no longer be needed. Oil spills will be a thing of the past. In addition, the new solar technologies will be a source of significant new jobs. Creating the desired solar-ammonia-hydrogen infrastructure will require the strong cooperative support of governments throughout the world. Governments must rethink their energy policies by reducing or eliminating the hundreds of billions of dollars in annual subsidies for fossil fuels and incorporating all costs— including extraction damages; CO 2 buildup; resource depletion; air, soil, and water pollution; acid rain; and biodiversity losses—into the price of fossil fuels. Security costs should also be included in the price of fossilfuel energy and nuclear energy. The model for this approach exists today in many European nations whose governments are already using taxes and incentives to fund new renewable energy infrastructures. As Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, has said, “Europe today is the major force for environmental innovation. European governments have encouraged their companies to invest in and produce clean power technologies.” One way of covering the infrastructure building costs would be a worldwide “carbon tax” or “resource extraction tax” on all carbon-containing fuels, like petroleum, natural gas, and coal. It would essentially be a fee charged for resource depletion. Implementing this tax would motivate consumers to burn up less gasoline and force businesses to innovate in green technologies. This is a classic case where an old quote of former Senator Jack Kemp is applicable: “Tax that which you want to discourage and subsidize that which you want to encourage.” A tax of 5% might be a fair starting point. The proceeds would be used to build plants that manufacture photovoltaic-grade silicon and silicon photovoltaic panels. Soon after start-up, these plants would be con-

verted to run on photovoltaic electricity generated by panel arrays manufactured on-site. Where possible, these plants should be located near sites of abundant sand and water. Sites near hydroelectric dams are ideal because the plants could harness the dams for potential energy storage by using excess photovoltaic electricity to pump water uphill into the reservoirs as a source of potential energy for nighttime use. Four ideal locations would be near Hoover Dam outside of Las Vegas, Nevada; near Grand Coulee Dam in Washington state; near the Aswan Dam in Egypt; and near the Three Gorges Dam in China. Around 90% of the photovoltaic panels produced by the plants would be sold for residential and commercial rooftop photovoltaic electricity generating units. Low-interest loans must be made available to buyers, initially, to subsidize the capital costs until manufacturing supply and panel efficiency are optimized. The remaining 10% of the photovoltaic panels produced by the plants would be installed at the site to supply electricity to the local electrical grid for grid-supplied electricity. This approach would continue until the world’s current electricity demands are met from renewable energy sources. The carbon tax funds would also be used to build photovoltaic solar panels to supply electricity to “filling stations” for recharging electric vehicles and making hydrogen by electrolysis and anhydrous ammonia to supply fuel-cell vehicles. The arrays of panels would be built over the highway roadbeds so as not to use additional land area. I believe that it would even be possible to build airplanes that would fly using dissociated ammonia or liquid hydrogen as a fuel. The world will then have converted to a primarily solar-ammoniahydrogen energy world, free of its dependence on fossil fuels. Any remaining coal, petroleum, or natural gas reserves left at this time would be put into restricted feedstock reserves for pharmaceuticals, plastics, and petrochemicals. The result would be a sustainable, carbon-free

world energy supply for centuries to come. Rethinking the “Good Life” Our sun will not last forever. However, if we convert to a carbon-free energy system, we should be able to extend our comfortable life on Earth for several billions of years. How we do this is up to us. We can continue to eat our free lunch of fossil fuels until their depletion, or we can start now to convert to a carbon-free energy system in a well thought-out manner over the next 40 or 50 years. We, the global community, have to make a choice between cheap, dirty, harmful fossil fuels or slightly more expensive clean energy, which is available but for which we lack the appropriate infrastructure. The cost of a world with vastly less climate change, terrorism, and environmental damage is to readjust our priorities and pay more for energy and less for war and for damage from climate, environment, and weather problems. A significant contribution to our current world energy situation is the consumption creed that has been pushed upon us by the marketing geniuses of the global corporations. The public has been enticed by those corporations to buy more and save less. I believe that, if we continue this consumption cult, we will be bringing on serious problems, such as climate change and religious wars, and much unnecessary suffering. On the other hand, if we insist on a resource depletion fee or carbon tax instead of begging for cheap oil, these problems can be avoided. A long-range solution in the form of carbon-free energy is feasible and doable if we plan now, spend for the future instead of the present, and conserve more while spending less. ❏ About the Author Carl E. Schoder is a retired chemical engineer and lifelong Sierra Club member. He previously served electronics firm Varian Inc. in multiple capacities: process engineer, laboratory manager, plant process engineer, and corporate manager for environmental compliance. E‑mail cschoderrvm@charter.net.

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70 Jobs for 2030 Emerging Careers and How to Create Them By Cynthia G. Wagner

We can think about our “jobs” as how we earn a living, how we spend our time, or how we find inspiration, but one thing is sure: The nature of jobs is changing along with the corporations, societies, and other environments in which we do the work. Cameron: I don’t know what I’m gonna do. Sloane: College. Cameron: Yeah, but to do what? Sloane: What are you interested in? Cameron: Nothing. Sloane: Me neither. … What do you think Ferris is gonna do? Cameron: He’s gonna be a fry-cook on Venus. (Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, John Hughes, 1986)

In February 1984, THE FUTURIST published one of its most popular articles ever: “Emerging Careers: Occupations for Post-Industrial Society” by psychologist and career counselor S. Norman Feingold. What made the article unique among all of the “how to get a job” pieces that regularly appear in magazines was the focus on trends that were reshaping the world of work and on how individuals could use these ideas to shape their own futures. 30

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The trends that Feingold was tracking at the time included the advancing information and communication technologies that were improving office productivity, as well as the opportunities created by medical breakthroughs and the challenges associated with resource depletion. The principles on which Feingold based his forecasts for tomorrow’s job titles are still sound. The emerging careers he identified (such as genetic counselor, ocean hotel manager, and artificial intelligence technician) all would develop from preexisting career areas and would become possible through advances in technology, changes in the environment, and other megatrends. And the jobs he described were not just momentary fads, appearing and disappearing over a very short period of time. You could forget becoming a “Mood Ring Interpreter.” So with this in mind, the editors of THE FUTURIST felt it was time to

January-February 2011

revisit some of the megatrends shaping tomorrow’s careers and invited several experts and World Future Society members to contribute their thoughts. Interestingly, many of those megatrends from the early 1980s are still very active: environment and resource issues, accelerating technological development, and the drive to explore (or exploit) the frontiers of ocean and space. So though many of Feingold’s forecasted careers are well established (solar energy research scientist, laser technician, aquaculturist), new opportunities are still likely to emerge in these same areas.

Futuring for Job Creators One of the easiest ways to begin thinking about future careers is to focus on what may be a problem in the future and invent a job that will solve it. We can do this through trend analysis, applying trends to

The List: 70 Jobs for 2030 The following are sample emerging job titles identified in this special section; we hope the ideas discussed in the section will stimulate your own thinking about the future and the jobs that may be needed in the decades ahead.

functions that will need to be performed. Many functions will be more automated in the future, including professional services, but people will still find creative ways of using their skills and talents to make a living. Here are three basic approaches: 1. Retrofitting: Adding new skills to existing jobs. 2. Blending: Combining skills and functions from different jobs or industries to create new specialties. 3. Problem solving: Necessity is still the mother of invention, and the supply of future problems for people to solve seems limitless.

Retrofitting: Apply New Trends to Current Careers

Alternative currency banker Amnesia surgeon Astro-banker Astro-clergy Astro-doctor Astro-farmer Astro-lawyer Astro-psychologist Astro-teacher Augmented reality architect Autonomous vehicle operator Avatar relationship manager Bio-botic physician Bio-botist assistant Bioregenerative integrator Brain quant Brain signal decoder (mind reader) Chef-farmer (agri-restaurateur) Chief experience officer Clinical choral consultant Clone rancher Digital archaeologist Digital identity planner Drone dispatcher Energy harvester Environmental health nurse Exobotanist Exozoologist Extinction revivalist Financial technologist Future-guide Global sourcing manager Global system architect Grassroots researcher Gravity puller Green career coach Healer

Let’s take the long-term trend toward space commercialization as an example of an area where new careers could be retrofitted onto existing occupations. As space tourism grows, what services will be needed to support customers and businesses? Other prospective areas of development include construction, energy or other resource harvesting, and general services. Who’s going to

Holodeck trainer Mobile biomass therapist Office concierge Online community organizer Organizational quartermaster Personal brand manager Personal care coordinator Plant psychologists Post-normal jobs counselor Rationator police Residence technician Robot polisher Robotic earthworm driver Robotician Seed capitalist Sensuality simulator Smart car interior advertisement sales representative Smart car interior designer Smart road designer/engineer Smart road sensor control monitor/analyst Space junk hauler Space junk recycler Space resource reclaimer Space sweeper Talent aggregator Telecop Terabyter (lifelogger) Time hacker Transhumanist consultant Tree-jacker Universal ethics proclaimer Unmanned cargo vehicle operator Wiki writer

repair your spaceshoes, make your bed, lead your tour group? How do you get your hair trimmed or styled in space? If you’re planning a celestial wedding, who will design your low- or zero-gravity bridal gown? Space debris has become an increasing problem as the byproduct of human exploration and exploitation of space; spent rockets, broken parts, and other debris now orbiting the

planet get in the way of active satellites and craft. Space junk watchers now track bits of debris, but the future may offer opportunities for space sweepers, space junk recyclers, ha ulers, and resource reclaimers. Long-term space habitation means we’ll also need astroteachers, doctors, psychologists, lawyers, clergy, bankers, farmers, and yes, perhaps even fry-cooks. We’ll also need all sorts of repair persons—or at least the engineers and technicians to build robots with AI to perform these needed functions. The possibility of finding life forms on Earthlike planets in other solar systems certainly inspires new career possibilities, such as exobotanists and exozoologists to study interplanetary plants and animals. Back on Earth, other trends suggest retrofitting opportunities. For example, what kinds of jobs can be done by telecommuting? Technological advances as well as social change will create opportunities for jobs that you wouldn’t normally think could be done remotely. Can a police offi-

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Doing What You Love An additional way to create an emerging career is to monetize your passion: Do what you love. Two brothers, Wilbur and Orville Wright, made bicycles for a living, but they were fascinated by the possibility of flying machines. In 1903, they succeeded in building the first successful airplane, thus creating a new job for themselves—and eventually jobs for thousands of other people. —Edward Cornish IMAGES: DOVER PUBLICATIONS; PHOTODISC

cer, for instance, be effective telecommuting? Yes, if it means strengthening ties to his/her own community. Job title: Telecop. What kinds of jobs can be retrofitted to reduce their environmental impacts? Green career coaches could advise employers/workers about the environmental impacts of their tasks. How could you make beauty salons more eco-friendly? Department stores? Office supply stores? Office Depot, for instance, has been touting its greening efforts. Energy harvesters will combine construction and engineering to collect the kinetic energy of humans through the materials they come in contact with, from floors to everyday objects, and even clothing. The power created by a single individual could operate his or her personal ICT devices; the power collected by a group (office workers, apartment dwellers) could run a city block. Another trend that could retrofit existing occupations is the growing incorporation of sensors, batteries, and other technologies into textiles, such as for our clothes. So how are “smart textiles” going to be cleaned or altered? Drycleaners may need to retrain themselves in handling electronics. Tailoring/garment customization will include not only design details but also communications customizing. The same issues will affect trans32

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portation systems and infrastructure that become increasingly embedded with these technologies. Job titles could include smart road designer/engineer, sensor control monitor/analyst, smart car interior designer, and smart car interior advertisement sales representative.

Blending Careers Another way of looking at trends from a future-career perspective is to make connections among two or more different areas. For instance, blending work in human and environmental health resulted in the emerging field of environmental health nursing, which involves treatment of patients exposed to toxins. After receiving her master’s degree in this new field, Sinai Hospital nurse Janel C. Parham used the information “in conjunction with my other passion—maternal/child health. I looked at how all these toxins affected female reproduction and fetal development.” You may be a wonderful sales person but currently working in an industry that is in decline. By focusing on your transferrable skills (persuasiveness, interpersonal communications) as well as your interests (singing, painting), you may be able to create a new occupation in an indus-

January-February 2011

try on the rise. Perhaps you would lead music-therapy programs in hospitals or nursing homes as a clinical choral consultant. While some may not view a return to an agrarian economy as “progress,” we have seen a surge of interest in organic and local farming. Today, many urbanites subscribe to a favorite orchard or farm for their supplies of fresh, healthy foods. Merge this with a trend (or perhaps simply a fad) in celebrity chefs, and you have opportunities for agri- restaurateurs (or chef-farmers). We also see more agricultural activity taking place within cities themselves; people may increasingly choose to spend less time in monetized work (“jobs”) and more time producing food for their own and/or their community’s needs. Another “blend” opportunity is to become a specialized generalist. For instance, if you want to be a journalist, become a specialized one in a growth sector such as health. Opportunities right now are in business journalism, particularly the finance and investment categories. Look for growth in health and medicine journalism and communications. Some critics have feared a media future where anyone can write (or create content) for the public without the training and experience in communications theory, ethics, law, and so on. But there will still be a market for ideas and news—i.e., information—that is authoritative, balanced, and useful. This authority-journalism may come from professional experts (e.g., neurosurgeons, astrophysicists, financial advisers) who do cross-training in journalism. They’ll assure audiences of their accurate reporting (they’ll get the facts right), and they’ll communicate in language that everyone can understand. And that’s all good, even if traditional outlets for “journalism,” like newspapers and broadcast news, disappear or transform into new platforms. Journalism schools will evolve

with these changes; the City University of New York, for instance, has introduced a master ’s degree program in entrepreneurial journalism that will prepare students for the business and technological environments in which they will be working.

Problem Solving as Career Opportunity The communications age brought with it a host of unexpected problems, most notably privacy and security. Facebook and Twitter keep us connected but also vulnerable, often to our own missteps. (Try killing that video of your cowboy-singing karaoke adventure once it goes viral on YouTube.) Enter the new world of digital footprint management. Elizabeth Charnock, author of E‑Habits: What You Must Do to Optimize Your Professional Digital Presence and CEO of the digital analytics firm Cataphora, suggests that new career opportunities are rising for those who would help you manage your online image by correcting your blunders. Others (such as prospective employers, political opponents, or spurned lovers) may pay good money to dig up that which you tried to bury, such as an impulsively sent e-mail deriding your co-workers. Job title: digital archaeologist. Bridging the remaining gap between what our technologies can do for us and what they cannot do is another rich area of problems to solve. As business futurist Edie Weiner has pointed out, science’s growing understanding of the human brain is a major area of potential economic growth for the future, whether the goal is to create artificial intelligence or to enhance human lives. Recent research at the University of Utah with severely paralyzed people enabled bioengineers using implanted microelectrodes to translate the patients’ brain signals into words. The method needs improvement in order to help patients who cannot speak due to locked-in syndrome. “This is proof of concept,” says lead researcher Bradley Greger. “We’ve proven these signals can tell you what the person is saying well above chance. But we need to be able to do more words with more accu-

racy before it is something a patient really might find useful.” Future job title: brain signal decoder (or mind reader).

Putting It All Together It has been said that “futurist” is (or should be) everyone’s second profession, but for many it is their first profession. Futurist was a featured job title in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Outlook Quarterly (spring 2009), which explores a variety of unique job titles in its “You’re a What?” series. Professional futurologist Ian Pearson, formerly an engineer with BT Laboratories, describes some of the problems that futurists face when explaining what they actually do for a living. “The most common [misconception] is that it can’t work—no one can predict the future. Ergo, I must be an idiot and wasting their time,” he said in an interview with the blog

Vault Careers. “In fact, many things are quite predictable, such as progress in technology, and many of the impacts of that technology are pretty obvious too when you think about it.” Where futurists may be able to make themselves most useful in the future would be as what Janna Quitney Anderson described in the January-February 2010 issue of THE FUTURIST: “Maybe what we need is a new employment category, like f uture-guide, to help prepare people for the effects of disruptive technology in their chosen professions so they don’t find themselves, frankly, out of a job.” About the Author Cynthia G. Wagner is managing editor of THE FUTURIST and editor of Futurist Update, the World Future Society’s free monthly e-mail newsletter. E-mail cwagner@wfs.org.

A Clash of Ideas and Ideals On the Jobs Front By Patrick Tucker

At a recent Washington, D.C., summit, top economic minds gathered to debate long-term solutions to current economic woes. It’s a crisp September day in Washington and economist Lawrence Summers, head of the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisors, appears as relaxed as the weather outside. This unshakable confidence is in keeping with Summers’s reputation, but he’s attempting to address (or evade) a difficult issue, and what many consider the single biggest failure of the $7 trillion fiscal policy he orchestrated: jobs. “The overwhelming problem is a shortage of demand” for workers, said Summers at the National Jour-

nal Workforce of the Future conference. While the U.S. stock market has largely recovered since reaching its recession low in March 2009, and corporate earnings over the last two quarters have largely beat analysts’ expectations, the U.S. labor market remains in dire shape. Some 14.9 million people are officially unemployed in the United States. The Obama administration originally forecast that the stimulus would keep the U.S. unemployment rate near 8%. In September 2010, it stood at 9.6%. It’s a

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PATRICK TUCKER

Lawrence Summers (left), head of the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisors, discusses the recession’s effect on jobs with Ronald Brownstein of the National Journal Group.

U.S. born-problem with global consequences; fewer working Americans means far fewer customers for export-led economies like Germany, Japan, and China. How does the United States protect the jobs it has and grow more jobs in the future? This was a matter of some dispute among the economists, captains of industry, and labor leaders in attendance. According to Emily DeRocco, senior vice president of the National Association of Manufacturers, the United States needs to revitalize its factory sector. “The majority of the innovation that occurs in the [U.S.] economy is in manufacturing,” DeRocco argued. “If we allow our production to move offshore, design and research will move as well.” She also emphasized the need for more robust public/private partnership. That means that the government should play a larger role in directing the economy, said Washington Post columnist Steven Pearlstein. “If you lose too much of the manufacturing, you will lose the development and the research. But you have suggested a limited role for government as a competitiveness policy. … Do Brazil, Germany, and China have weak governments? I don’t think so.” 34

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Projected increases in health-care jobs over the coming decade won’t help job growth long term. Pearlstein cautioned: “Every time you read about heath-care jobs, it’s a deadweight loss on the economy. We can’t get rich taking in each other’s healthcare needs.” A publicly funded but privately run “innovation fund” could better direct capital to where it’s most productive, according to former Clinton advisor Martin Baily. “If you look across the world, you can’t find a high-tech industry that was started without help from the government,” he said. A more important role for government is enforcement of regulations of worker protections, according to several attendees. “[U.S.] wages have been stagnant over the last 25 years, so people have been making less but working more with more bills to pay. How do we give workers a voice so they can unionize to earn higher wages? We need to look at regulatory reform and enforce the trade regulations that we have,” said Anna Burger, secretary-treasurer of the Service Employees International Union. Drew Greenblatt, president of the Baltimore-based company Martin Steel Wire Products, sees a dearth of

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training in science, technology, and engineering as the key obstacle to U.S. job growth. He suggested a national skill certification test that employers could give to potential employees to determine their qualifications, instead of relying on the degree an applicant has acquired. “If [employers] had confidence in a national certification standard, we could bring people into the workforce faster,” he said. Economic Policy Institute president Lawrence Mischel agreed on the value of a national certification standard but dissented sharply on the subject of qualified workers or the lack thereof. “The claim that we don’t have workers with the right skills or workers in the right place, so people who were useful six months ago are now obsolete—I haven’t found evidence for it. Investment in plant and equipment is at the lowest level in the postwar period. Every education group has seen their unemployment rate double. This [recession] is something that has affected every education group,” he said. On what issues did the participants generally agree? • The United States needs to revise its visa program to allow more highly skilled workers into the country. • The workforce of the next decade will draw more heavily from African American and Latino populations, so improving education among these communities is critical to future competiveness. • Disruptive technologies like automation and information technology will destroy the jobs as surely as they create new ones. “You can’t look at the data from the last 18 months and not think something profoundly important and structural is happening all over the world. No matter how successful we are in creating demand for employment, some skills will be less relevant than they were,” said Summers. About the Author Patrick Tucker is senior editor of THE FUTURIST and director of communications for the World Future Society. E‑mail: ptucker@wfs.org.

SELLINGPIX / ISTOCKPHOTO

The Coming of the Terabyters: Lifelogging for a Living By Thomas Frey

A new breed of workers, equipped with über-geek data-capturing tools, are about to usher in a whole new information era. A person’s worth is usually calculated based on a hard number, such as money in the bank account, personal assets, or earning power. As our ability to capture and process information improves, we are able to assign many more numbers to the intrinsic value of an individual’s influence, reputation, and talent. In the coming years, we will see new systems designed to monetize these attributes, and a completely new type of “job” will emerge: the “terabyters.” In 2008, Americans consumed 1.3 trillion hours of information, or 12 hours of information per person per day, thanks to TV, radio, games, social networking, and the Internet. This translates to 34 gigabytes of data consumption each day. As impressive as these numbers sound, they are tiny compared with what the terabyters—walking information nodes—will consume in the near future. A terabyter is a person who produces more than a terabyte of new information every day. Today, only a handful of these people exist, but the numbers will soon swell along with

the development of new data-capture equipment. Consider the following scenario: Each morning, Winston rolls out of bed, takes a quick shower, and begins to strap on the trademark Gargoyle gear. Named after the characters described in Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash, Gargoyles equip themselves with a wearable computer to constantly collect visual and sensory data about their surroundings, while continually jacked into the Metaverse (Internet). Winston’s role in life is to serve as a human information node in the rapidly growing world of extreme data immersion. His income is both directly and indirectly dependent upon the amount of information he is able to amass on a daily basis. The information Winston collects is being continually streamed to the server farms for search engines designed for the physical world. Each video stream coming from Winston is layered with object-recognition software, geospatial coordinates, and other sensory response data, translating the physical world around him into digital information that is searchable.

He represents a human version of the spidering bots that tech companies currently use to scan the digital world. But spidering the physical world requires a more human approach, and that’s where Winston comes in. Search technology companies such as Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft have agreed to buy the incoming data streams from Winston, and from thousands of others like him, based on a percentage of ad sales associated with the display of his information. The lifestyle of the terabyter had become the planet’s hottest new profession: For a mere $5,000 of equipment and a commitment to wear the gear relentlessly, virtually anyone can become a terabyter, and the money rolls in. Full-fledged terabyters can do whatever they want to, anytime, anyplace, and still make money. Admittedly, it isn’t a lifestyle that will appeal to everyone. The equipment is a hassle and the income is rather sparse to begin with. But those who stick with it will see their income grow. Over time, the equip-

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More Jobs for Tomorrow

• A l t e r n a t i ve C u r re n c y Bankers. According to Javelin Strategies, 20% of all online trades are already being done with alternative currencies. The stage is being set for next-generation alt-currency banks. • Amnesia Surgeons. Specialized doctors will be skilled in removing bad memories or destructive behavior. • Augmented Reality Architects. Much like the paint we put on houses and the flavorings we add to our food, the future will seem boring if our reality hasn’t been augmented. • Avatar Relationship Managers. As the foibles of humanity enter the realm of autonomous, freethinking avatars, people will find it necessary to both manage and limit the often dangerous relationships that avatars get themselves into. • Brain Quants. This is where the stock market manipulators of the past meet the brain manipulators of the future to usurp control of Madison Avenue. (A quantitative analyst, or “quant,” is a person who works in finance using numerical or quantitative techniques.) • Clone R ancher. Raising “blank” humans will be similar in many respects to cattle ranching. But once a clone is selected, and the personality download is complete, the former clone will instantly be elevated to human status. • Drone Dispatchers. Drones will be used to deliver groceries and water, remove trash and sewage, monitor traffic and pollution, and change out the batteries on our homes. Skilled dispatchers will be high in demand. • Extinction Revivalists. A specialty in genetics will be people who revive extinct animals.

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• Global System Architects. National systems are transitioning into global systems. Architects of these new global systems will play a crucial role in future world affairs. • Gravity Pullers. These will be the first wave of people to unlock the code for influencing gravity. • Plant Psychologists. An entire profession will be dedicated to undoing the damage caused by the Tree-Jackers [see below]. • Robot polishers. The robots are coming, and they will invariably need to be polished. • Robotic Earthworm Drivers. The most valuable land on the planet will soon be the landfills, because that is where we have buried our most valuable natural resources. In the future, robotic earthworms will be used to silently mine the landfills and replace whatever is extracted with top-grade soil. • Seed Capitalists. In the startup business world there is a huge gulf between initial concept and fundable prototypes. This dearth of funding options will require an entirely new profession. Seed capitalists will specialize in high-risk, early-stage startups. If they get more than 100% return on their investments, they will be docked for not taking enough risk. • Time Hackers. If we think cyberterrorists are a pain, it will seem like nothing compared to devious jerry-riggers who start manipulating the time fabric of our lives. • Tree-Jackers. Plant and tree alteration specialists will manipulate growth patterns, create growto-fit wood products, color-changing leaves, and personalized fruit. —Thomas Frey

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ment will become far less intrusive. However, for the committed terabyters, this is the ultimate lifestyle. Every day is an adventure, finding new places to explore and new people to meet, and never bound to a desk or a computer. Their livelihood is directly related to how active their lifestyle is.

Creating the Terabyter Network There will likely be many players involved in developing a system to ramp up data collection to this level. All of the Internet service providers will have to gear up, new bandwidth must be allocated, routers and switching systems have to be changed out, browsers and operating systems will need to be updated, and search engine thinking will have to be revised. Terabyter gear is already available, but still in crude, marginally usable formats. Video-capture goggles, helmets, and other devices will quickly morph into sleek, barely visible equipment that can be mounted in, on, and around the wearers. Once the world gets a glimpse of the potential, along with the right incentives, terabyter gear will begin to fly off the shelves, system registrations will skyrocket, and a whole new income-producing lifestyle will spring to life. In addition to the ongoing video stream of a terabyter’s surroundings, the video images will be overlaid with biosensor response data, assigning emotional values to individual objects, places, and people. This is why humans will be needed for this massive data collection, though the equipment could easily be strapped onto cars, bicycles, or robots. The most valuable data will come from the places that only humans can go, experiencing and feeling the world from a human perspective. About the Author Thomas Frey is the senior futurist and executive director of the DaVinci Institute, www.davinciinstitute.com/ speakers.php or www .impactlab.com; e-mail dr2tom@davinciinstitute.com.

Careers for a More Personal Corporation By Jim Ware • Personal Brand Manager. Because most people will hold many jobs over the course of their working lives, personal brands will become as important for individuals as product brands are today. Personal Brand Managers will serve as talent agents, coaches, and scouts—helping individuals plan their careers, match their skills and preferences to jobs, seek out promising opportunities, evaluate their successes and failures, and “package” their personal brands. Brand Managers will also act as personal coaches and career managers for their clients. • Talent Aggregator. Large organizations will continue to shrink down to their essential core functions, depending on contractors, outsourcers, and contingent laborers to get needed work done. The entire economy will become more projectbased, much the way Hollywood now assembles cast and crew for movie productions. Talent Aggregators will maintain databases on thousands of independent “free agents,” assembling (often on short notice) the talent that is needed for any given project. • Office Concierge. As work and workers become increasingly mobile, commercial office space will be transformed. There will be many more kinds of workspaces (and hopefully no more cube farms). Individuals’ “home base” offices will most likely be home offices; they will “rent” space on a short-term, asneeded basis in corporate facilities. The Office Concierge will be much more than a space reservation clerk; he or she will proactively help managers and teams determine what kind of space they need for what time periods, and will direct the rearrangement of desks, chairs, technology, and even walls to meet the specific individual and collaborative needs of the workforce. The Concierge will also be a source of information about local resources—not just caterers but also team facilitators, graphic recorders, production specialists, and any other extra talent

the workers need. • Global Sourcing M a n a g e r. A s t h e economy becomes more global, organizations will have many more choices to make about where to get what resources—whether they be physical, informational, or human. A Global Sourcing Manager will be a

logistics expert who understands supplier relationship management, energy costs and tradeoffs, international customs requirements and other legal factors, overall cost considerations, and project deliverable timelines. The complexity of where, when, and how materiel and people must come

Unmanned Cargo Vehicle Operator: A Scenario By Karen W. Currie 5 July 2030 Hey Uncle Steve, I’ve just finished my first week of Air and Space Basic. The robotics design exercises were especially intense. The members of my flight weren’t strangers since we’ve been visiting MyJointBase in Virtual World together for the past six months, ever since we were accepted into the U.S. Air and Space Force. The application process was so competitive that participating in that special science and math track ever since middle school was essential. Being fluent in Chinese made the difference, I’m convinced. Part of Basic includes testing our physical, intellectual, and emotional reactions in a wide range of virtual environments. It’s all part of the process our mentors use to develop our career prescription (CP), an individualized plan for our education and training designed to meld our individual talents with the needs of the USASF. After we complete our three weeks of Basic, we’ll go to our home bases to begin the CP virtual coursework. My Air Force specialty is Unmanned Cargo Vehicle Operator. Some of my training will be supervised by the robotics experts from the Japanese Air Force, and some of it I’ll get from FedEx. I’ll probably remain at Scott Joint Base for my first four years. At that time I can choose to remain on active duty, or transfer to the reserves, with return rights to active duty. I’ll be contributing to my Thrift Savings Plan from the get-go, because military pension arrangements have changed considerably since you retired. More later! Your niece, Amelia About the Author Karen W. Currie, a retired colonel in the U.S. Air Force, is a defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute, where she was a faculty representative to the Air Force 2025 futures study in 1996. E‑mail Karen.Currie@maxwell.af.mil. This article reflects the author’s personal ideas and does not represent any official position of the U.S. Air Force or Department of Defense.

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together to produce value will require expertise that is both broad and deep. • Organizational Quartermaster. Just as the Global Sourcing Manager will sort out supply chain logistics for making and distributing both physical and informational products, the Organizational Quartermaster will provide staff (and contractors) with the resources they need to get their work done—whether it is technology, Web access, office space, office supplies, training, other employees, or any of the many other things it takes to produce work effectively and efficiently. The Quartermaster’s job, like that of a military quartermaster, is to ensure that the mobile and widely distributed “troops” (the workforce) have what they need, when and where they need it, and at

a reasonable cost to the organization. This job will combine what we know today as end-user computing, workplace services, employee training, project management, talent management, and purchasing, for starters.

• Chief Experience Officer (CExO). Reporting to the chief executive officer, this C-Suite player will oversee a wide variety of functions, from marketing and sales to human resources. The CExO will be responsible for all of the experiences offered, to both employees and customers, and for the outcomes. This position will be created because businesses will have realized that, for all of the stakeholders of any enterprise, “It’s about the experience!” Whether it’s the experience of being an employee or the experience of being a customer, people will decide to be associated with companies based on how it feels. Offer a good experience, and the company will prosper. • Holodeck Trainer. Imagine the grandchildren of the current games’ consoles creating whole rooms where people can play in virtual reality. This Holodeck environment can be used for corporate training as well. The person who will assist people in learning the skills they will need will be called a Holodeck trainer. 38

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By Anne Gordon

• Bio-botic Physicians and Bio-botist Assistants. These individuals would look at the integration between biological functionalities and implanted enhanced life extensions (nano-robotics). People in this field would repair internal chips, resolving complications between the natural biology and nanobots (biological machines) in the “evolved” man. • Bioregenerative Integrators might ensure that nanotechnology is operating and regenerating as programmed or coded. These professionals might be like today’s experts in remote monitoring centers for pacemakers. • Mobile Biomass “Offer a good Thera pists would entail home physical experience, and (not virtual) visits. the company These therapists will prosper.” would physically assess, monitor, and cre• Residence Techniate physical insertions. cian. A combination of toFor example, they might be day’s appliance repair person, alresponsible for adding new ternative energy capture, and HVAC mems (microelectric machine stimuand medical equipment technician, lators) or injecting engineered nanothe residence technician will be re- viruses for healing. sponsible for all of the house sys• Rationator Police may be cretems. ated to monitor thought, so that the This wide responsibility will in- proper medications or electromagclude monitoring the health statistics netic frequencies would be upof the residents and controlling the loaded/downloaded to ensure joy, heating, air conditioning, and venti- peace, and happiness. These frequenlation of the building, especially en- cies could be sent wirelessly by ansuring that the solar panels and/or other new type of professional: Senwind turbines are in good working suality Simulators. order. The systems will work to• Sensuality Simulators might gether to maintain the health and control dosages (like today’s pharwell-being of the inhabitants. macists and physicians) to enhance all senses so that virtual reality becomes the preferred reality. This About the Author would allow recipients to be sustainJoyce L. Gioia is president ably content and productive. and CEO of The Herman • Transhumanist Consultants Group (www.hermangroup. may emerge in the early 2030s as com), author of The Herman counselors to help integrate that Trend Alert e‑mail newsletwhich remains of human emotion ter, and THE FUTURIST’s and what we call consciousness tocontributing editor for day. These consultants might work workforce/workplace. E‑mail joyce@ hermangroup.com. with therapeutic nanologists (like About the Author James Ware is a co-founder of the Work Design Collaborative and the Future of Work program. He has held senior management positions at several leadingedge professional services firms, including KPMG (now Bearing Point), Computer Sciences Corporation, Unisys Corporation’s Information Services Group, and The Concours Group. He is the author of such books as Cut It Out! Save for Today, Build for Tomorrow (IFMA Foundation, 2009) and Corporate Agility (American Management Association, 2007).

Managing Our Feelings By Joyce Gioia

Careers Inspired by Nanotech Trends

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psycho-neurologists of today) in virtual clinics. About the Author Anne Gordon is a registered nurse, social psychologist, artist, writer, and thinker. She recently created and produced a DVD, Robots in Babylon, which takes place in 2020. E‑mail akaliuga@comcast.net.

Online Community Organizer By Seth Godin If you want to hire a union organizer, you probably know what to look for: someone with resilience, passion, persistence, and excellent interpersonal skills. What if you want to hire someone to build an online community? Somebody to create and maintain a virtual world in which all the players in an industry feel like they need to be part of it? Like being the head of a big trade association, but without the bureaucracy and tedium. ... It would help if these individuals understood technology, at least well enough to know what it could do. They would need to be able to write. But they also have to be able to seduce stragglers into joining the group in the first place, so they have to be able to understand a marketplace, and do outbound selling and non-electronic communications. They have to be able to balance huge amounts of inbound correspondence without making people feel left out, and they have to be able to walk the fine line between rejecting trolls and alienating the good guys. Since there’s no rule book, it would help to be willing to try new things, to be self-starting and obsessed with measurement as well. About the Author Seth Godin has written 12 bestselling books that have been translated into more than 30 languages. As an entrepreneur, he has founded dozens of companies, most of which, he admits, have failed. His latest company, Squidoo.com, is ranked among the top 125 sites in the United States (by traffic). Web site www.sethgodin.com.

Digital Identity Planner: A Scenario By Timothy Ferriss Background: In 2008, the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) Web site received 275,284 complaint submissions, representing a 33.1% growth rate over 2007. In 2030, you are six months away from having your second child. What are you doing? Naturally, among other things, you’re meeting with a certified Digital Identity Planner (CDIP). In 2030, quality of life is only as secure as your “Google fingerprint,” which now extends far beyond Google. The CDIP, viewed as a blend of estate planner and insurer, helps answer: • What information about your child do you want recorded and searchable/findable (medical, imaging, home address, school address, etc.)? Omitted, deleted, or hidden? There are suggested templates based on asset allocation, geography, and other characteristics, all determined through an initial “information audit.” • Which companies and agencies will you have to periodically contact to request deletions, or feed legal alternative misinformation? The CDIP

will automate this for an additional quarterly fee, most often through an associated law firm. • What safeguards—whether software, hardware, or behavioral—can you put in place to prevent older children from endangering themselves or others in the family? Common advice in a first session: Disable GPS-tagging on all recording devices so that film and photos can’t be taken at home and correlated to an address. Proactive CDIPs aren’t cheap, but neither are good accountants. Just be sure to certify credentials and run a background check on all CDIPs prior to disclosing personal data, as 314 organized counterfeit operations were reported in 2029 alone. About the Author Timothy Ferriss is an angel investor (StumbleUpon, Digg, Twitter, etc.) and author of the number-one New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and BusinessWeek bestseller, The 4-Hour Workweek (Crown, 2009), which has been translated into 35 languages.

Fixing Our Machines and Ourselves By Charles Grantham

“Robots will

• Robotician (Motto: “If it require a blend of become as moves I can fix it”). mechanical, elecDemand will be high, as rotrical, and comubiquitous as bots will become as ubiquiputer engineercommon electrical tous as common electrical aping skills. appliances.” pliances. Every household will Journeyman level have at least one. Besides workprobably with an ing in factories, they will be used undergraduate-level heavily in retail businesses, such as education will be the food order and delivery in restau- sweet spot. The primary task is the rants. Shrinking labor markets for low assembly and maintenance of robotic skilled occupations in administrative, devices. Sub-specialties for residenassembly, and customer service appli- tial, commercial, and industrial apcations will drive demand. plications will follow. A new type of service person will • Autonomous Vehicle Operbe needed who can service a wide ator, or AVO (Motto: “I can fly anyvariety of robotic devices. This will thing, anywhere, anytime”). THE FUTURIST

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AVOs are what we used to call “pilots.” Vehicles traveling in remote environments (airspace, undersea, and underground) will be “flown” by operators in other locations. We began to see this development with military drone aircraft, underwater repair vehicles, and remote-controlled vehicles on extraplanetary surfaces. The nucleus of this group will be those who grew up in the “gaming” world, where excellent hand–eye coordination and the ability to multitask are highly valued. A new psychological skill is what could be labeled “extrasensory empathy,” or the ability to mentally project yourself into a virtual environment that is beyond your physical senses. Further, these skills will be transferable across economic sectors. Flying an armed drone over hostile territory isn’t that much different from controlling an underground vehicle in a hazardous mine environment. • Healer (Motto: “Balance in all things physical, emotional and spiritual”). This specialty will represent a blending of Western and Eastern medical traditions. In the future, this concept will be extended to include the ancient practice of the shaman, or “medicine man” in the North

American Native tradition. Being skilled in one discipline will not be adequate to treat either human or animal patients. Should I go to a doctor, an herbalist, a pastor, or a shaman to have my body healed? There won’t be an answer. These special people will also live and work among those they minister to. The twentieth century medical profession will evolve into a highly connected and trained group of community providers. Provision of healing will be a right of residents. Healers will be compensated by patients who are in good health. Patients won’t pay for service when they are ill. About the Author Charles Grantham is a cofounder of the Work Design Collaborative and the Future of Work program. He is also the founder and chief scientist of the Institute for the Study of Distributed Work, based in Prescott, Arizona, where he manages an extensive applied research program focused on the emergence of the electronic workplace. Grantham’s most recent book, Corporate Agility (co-authored with Jim Ware and Cory Williamson), was named one of the best business books of 2007.

Personal Care Coordinator By Alexandra Levit By 2018, one out of every 10 American jobs will be in the health-care management and technology sector. This explosive growth is due primarily to an aging population and expanding coverage. One new job title I believe will arise in the next 20 years is the Personal Care Coordinator. This person will serve as the bridge between the individual and all of the healthcare organizations and services that will provide care to him or her. The Personal Care Coordinator will understand the complexities of the modern health-care system and will also be familiar, on a granular level, with each client’s unique 40

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health-care situation and history. She will have all records at her fingertips electronically, and her presence will ensure that all providers work together to ensure the best possible patient outcome. About the Author Alexandra Levit is a former nationally syndicated columnist for the Wall Street Journal, bestselling author, and renowned speaker. Among her books are They Don’t Teach Corporate in College, How’d You Score That Gig?, Success for Hire, MillennialTweet, and New Job, New You. Web site www.alexandralevit.com.

January-February 2011

Future World Shapers By Alireza Hejazi Who will shape the future world? Will it be the politicians, military commanders, regulators, economists, or scientists? In fact, there are many other professionals who may shape our future world, in both positive and negative ways. • Grassroots Researchers. In the near future, research will go beyond universities’ walls and embrace general people of every social class. It is simple: Those who generate and own knowledge will lead the world. Those who don’t will just be followers. This will make an attractive competition for generating applied knowledge, and some scientists may even abandon universities in order to find more time for thinking. Academic degrees may no longer seem so valuable. Research capacity in different societies will find new ways for growth. True democracies will encourage their people to be active partners in research, and research projects will be done by the people, not just the researchers. • Universal Ethics Proclaimers. The endless war between believers and atheists has so far yielded no tangible result, and the same story may continue in coming years. Meanwhile, religious discussions on theological matters have caused other problems, such as groups of fanatical believers rising up against each other. One type of future world shapers will be those pursuing universal ethics. Believers, secular humanists, and even atheists have in common a natural ethics that transcends their faiths or the ways of life they follow. This kind of ethics, regarded as universal brotherhood, will be proclaimed increasingly in different parts of the world as a way out of religious, tribal, regional, and even universal clashes. • Wiki Writers. The world of general knowledge has come online, and wikis play a growing role in recording and retrieving that knowl-

edge. The Web is a powerful tool for sharing general knowledge, and yet a significant portion of its capacity is going to be discovered through linking to social media. In fact, a new generation of wikis is on the way, embracing multimedia and interactive capabilities. This will open opportunities for wiki writers to launch new projects. For example, an intelligent Wikipedia will diagnose your knowledge needs by analyzing your searched key words. Wiki writers will be quite an active community, and they will have to produce more articles in response to their clients’ and users’ needs. This will make wikis increasingly popular places to share information and knowledge. New wikis will be generated in other languages rather than just in English, French, Spanish, or Chinese.

• Fina ncial Technologists. While information and communication technology impacts us in many ways, a major channel of its impact is going to be felt through the way in which it is reshaping finance. In coming years, increasing amounts of capital will come into the financial technologies market, stimulating development, breaking through access barriers, and bringing down transaction costs to a fraction of what they are today. Financial technologists will enable mutual fund companies to sell and service much smaller investment units and insurance companies to sell much smaller policies than they are able to do now. • Post-Normal Jobs Counselors. The problem of finding a proper job will never end, at least in the near future. Journalist Ziauddin Sardar has described today as the beginning

of “the Post-Normal Era,” a time of new uncertainties and different types of “ignorance.” One of the main kinds of ignorance will be simply an inability to identify possibilities, which will create opportunities for post-normal job consultants. These counselors will be masters at identifying and even creating post-normal opportunities in the market, such as those that create new cultural products and meet new needs. ❏ About the Author Alireza Hejazi is founder and developer of the FuturesDiscovery Web site for Iranian futures scholars and a member of the Iranian Society of Futures Studies. His article “Futures Studies in Iran: The Past and the Future” was published in the April-May 2010 issue of World Future Review. E-mail arhejazi@hotmail.com.

Call for Nominations Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year The World Future Society has created a special award to recognize outstanding achievement in contemporary futures work. The Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year recognizes an individual (or organization) whose work in the past year advanced the development or application of futures methodologies or effectively promoted the importance of foresight. Named for the Society’s founding president, the first Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year was presented in 2010 to Theodore J. Gordon, senior fellow of the Millennium Project, during the Society’s annual meeting in Boston.

Nominations are now open for the second annual award. The nominations will be reviewed by the WFS Board of Directors, and the winner will be honored during the 2011 meeting in Vancouver, BC, Canada. There is no fee for nominators or nominees to enter this award program. There is no monetary award for the winner. For nomination guidelines and submission form, please visit www.wfs.org/content/ edward-cornish-award-futurist-year. The deadline for nominations is Monday, January 3, 2011.

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Institutional Members A Complete List of the World Future Society’s Member Organizations

Associations/Foundations Applied Science Technologists & Technicians of British Columbia, John E. Leech, Nanoose Bay, British Columbia, Canada Arcos Cielos Research Center, Elliott Maynard, Sedona, Arizona Baha’i World Centre Library, Haifa, Israel BAT—Foundation for Future Studies, Ulrich Reinhardt, Hamburg, Germany Center for Strategic Management & Studies (CGEE), Lucia Melo, Brasilia, Brazil Compassion International, Rob Flanegin, Colorado Springs, Colorado Finland Futures Research Center, Juha Kaskinen, Turku, Finland Finnish Society for Futures Studies, Helsinki, Finland Futures Foundation, Charles A. Brass, Fairfield, Victoria, Australia Institut Royal des Etudes Strategique, Rabat-Chellah, Morocco Institute for Alternative Futures, Clement Bezold, Alexandria, Virginia

Bentley Systems, Francis Rabuck, Exton, Pennsylvania CHRISTUS Health, Anne P. Messbarger-Eguia, San Antonio, Texas Eagle Applied Sciences, Lisa Lott, San Antonio, Texas Pacific Foods of Oregon, Charles Eggert, Tualatin, Oregon Pierre Beaulnes, Cumberland, Ontario, Canada Prospektiker (Prospective and Strategy), DonostiaSan Sebastian, Spain TO Production, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Educational Institutions Anne Arundel Community College, Steven T. Henick, Arnold, Maryland Delft University of Technology, Patrick van der Duin, Delft, Netherlands Eastern Senior High School, D. Donato, Voorhees, New Jersey EBS Business School SMI, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Wiesbaden, Germany

Institute for Futures Research, Bellville, South Africa

Elon University School of Law, Leary Davis, Greensboro, North Carolina

The Millennium Project, Jerome C. Glenn, Washington, D.C.

Emergency Services College, Kuopio, Finland

New Zealand Futures Trust, Wellington, New Zealand

Fachhoshschule Salzburg, Elmar Schuell, Salzburg, Austria Franklin University, Paul J. Otte, Columbus, Ohio

Business Firms

Horizons University, Roberta Grossi, Paris, France

Agnew Peckham, Lucy Brun, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Montgomery County Community College, Blue Bell, Pennsylvania

Audio-Tech Business Book Summaries, Fred A. Rogers, Willowbrook, Illinois

Moraine Valley Community College, Margaret Lehner, Palos Hills, Illinois

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

National Defense University, Washington, D.C. Seinan Gakuin University, Dr. Terazono, Fukuoka City, Japan Stephen F. Austin State University, Nacogdoches, Texas Tamkang University, Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Jian-Bang Deng, Taipei, Taiwan

National Bank of Pakistan, Ekhlaq Ahmed, Karachi, Pakistan National Security Coordination Centre, Patrick Nathan, Singapore Peel Regional Police, Joanne McPhail, Brampton, Ontario, Canada Prime Ministers Office, Tan Chee Seng, Singapore

Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas

Proteus USA, Carlisle, Pennsylvania

Thomas Jefferson High School, Jeanene Bluhm Bruns, Tlalnepantla, Mexico

Queensland Department of Transport & Main Roads, Maxine Hatten, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Troy University, Jack Hawkins, Troy, Alabama

Singapore Housing & Development Board, Er Lau Joo Ming, Singapore

University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin Warren County Community College, William J. Austin, Washington, New Jersey West Linn–Wilsonville Schools, Roger Woehl, West Linn, Oregon York University Libraries, North York, Ontario, Canada

Governement/Public Agencies Citizenship & Immigration Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Conseil General du Departement de L’Isere, Grenoble, France Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Maria Proenca, Lisboa, Portugal Egyptian Cabinet, Nermin Saber, Cairo, Egypt European Union, Laurent Bochereau, Washington, D.C. Finnish Transport Agency, Helsinki, Finland Infocomm Development Authority, Jane Sanmugum, Singapore

Toronto Reference Library, Toronto, Ontario, Canada U.S. Air Force, Maxwell AFB, Alabama U.S. Army ARDEC, Kurt McNeely, Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Paolo Pascetta, Washington, D.C. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Helen Hsing, Washington, D.C. U.S. Secret Service, Christine Sivigny, Washington, D.C.

Join the Honor Roll! Institutional Members of the World Future Society are acknowledged on the Society’s Web site. For information about Institutional Membership, see page 57 of this issue of THE FUTURIST or visit www.wfs.org/renew.

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

S pecial

A dvertising

S ection

Consultants and Services

listing of consulting futurists. For information about being listed in the directory, published in every issue of THE FUTURIST and available on the Web at www.wfs.org, call Jeff Cornish toll free at 1-800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274, or fax 301-951-0394.

Karl Albrecht International

Christensen Associates, Inc.

San Diego, CA U.S.A. Phone: 858-576-1500 E-mail: futures@KarlAlbrecht.com Web: KarlAlbrecht.com Contact: Dr. Karl Albrecht Conference Keynote: “Possibilities: Getting the Future You Deserve — Survival Secrets of the World’s Oldest Companies.”

8168 Manitoba St., No. 2, Playa Del Ray, CA 90293-8291 Phone: 310-578-0405 Fax: 310-578-0455 E-mail: chris@camcinc.com Web: www.camcinc.com Contact: Chris Christensen, CMC Avoid devastating surprises! Exploit ANY future! Stimulating and entertaining keynotes, workshops, assessments, and consulting.

Alternative Futures Associates 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures-afa.com Contact: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, Eric Meade Vision and scenario development, strategic planning, trend analysis, workshop design and facilitation, presentations, keynotes, consulting.

Atlas Safety & Security Design, Inc. 770 Palm Bay Ln., Suite 4-I, Miami, FL 33138 Phone: 305-756-5027 Fax: 305-754-1658 E-mail: ratlas@ix.netcom.com Web: www.cpted-security.com Contact: Dr. Randall Atlas, AIA, CPP Pioneers in crime prevention through environmental design. Design of jails, prevention of premises liability lawsuits.

Aviv Consulting 15363 NE 201st St. Woodinville, WA 98072 Phone: 425-415-6155 Fax: 425-415-0664 E-mail: avivconsulting@gmail.com Web: www.avivconsulting.com Contact: Aviv Shahar Helping leaders and teams develop their vision and design the future. Innovation, strategy, coaching, consulting, retreats.

Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking 46 B/4 Jerusalem St., Kfar Saba, Israel 44369 Phone: 972-54-558-7940 Fax: 972-9-766965 Web: www.futurist-thinking.co.il E-mail: bisk@futurist-thinking.co.il Contact: Tsvi Bisk Strategic futurism: “Getting from Here to There” (Keynote speaker) Jewish, Mid-East and Mediterranean Futures (consulting).

THE FUTURIST

Joseph F. Coates, Consulting Futurist, Inc. 3930 Connecticut Ave. NW, Ste. 401, Washington, DC 20008 Phone 202-363-7440 Fax 202-363-4139 Email: joe@josephcoates.com Web: www.josephcoates.com The future is my business: futures research, consultation, trend analysis, scenario development, visioning, scientific, technological and social forecasting, training, briefings, workshops, presentations and keynotes. Coates has been one of the most frequently cited authors in Future Survey and one of the most popular speakers at the World Future Society annual meetings. He is the author or co-author of six books, most recently A Bill of Rights for 21st Century America, and of 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. He has had assignments from half of the Fortune 100 firms, and has had published 290 articles on the future since 1990. He is also responsible for 200 proprietary reports to business, government and association clients. Coates will enlighten you on the future of any subject. Prepare for an unforgettable encounter.

Common Sense Medicine 812 W. 8th St., Suite 2A, Plainview, TX 79072 Phone: 806-291-0700 Fax: 806-293-8229 E-mail: drjonzdo@yahoo.com Web: www.commonsensemedicine.org Contact: Lon Jones DO, Jerry Bozeman M.Ed., LPC Adaptations today are the future. The authors of The Boids and the Bees tell how to guide adaptations in our living systems: healthcare, education, economy, even us.

January-February 2011

Coombs Consulting Ltd. / Creating Living Workplaces 401-1265 West 11th Ave., Vancouver, B.C. V6H 1K6 Phone: 604-733-9014 E-mail: info@thelivingworkplacec.com Web: www.thelivingworkplace.com Contact: Ms. Ann Coombs, Thought Leader Areas of practice include sessions for renewal in work, personal leadership and emerging trends based on the best seller The L iving Workplace. Markets served: corporate/social/ nonprofit/foundations/associations.

Creating the Future, Inc. with Edward D. Barlow, Jr. 2907 Division St., Suite 109, St. Joseph, MI 49085 Phone: 269-982-1830 Fax: 269-982-1541 E-mail: info@creatingthefuture.com Web: www.creatingthefuture.com Contact: Ed Barlow (staff: Sandy, Tammy, and Tresea) Relating influences of a changing world to industries, organizations, professions, communities. Presentations, strategic planning facilitation.

DaVinci Institute Inc. 511 E. South Boulder Rd., Louisville, CO 80027 Phone: 303-666-4133 E-mail: deb@davinciinstitute.com Web: www.futuristspeaker.com Contact: Thomas Frey, Debra Frey Google’s top-rated futurist speaker. Speaking topics: business trends, colleges and universities, city of the future, innovation, education, information, libraries, transportation, and more.

de Bono For Business 248 W. Loraine St., #103, Glendale, CA 91202 Phone: 818-507-6055 E-mail: info@LyndaCurtin.com Web: www.deBonoForBusiness.com Contact: Lynda Curtin, the Opportunity Thinker Lift your thinking. Learn breakthrough futurist tools—lateral thinking, six thinking hats. Workshops. Keynotes. Facilitation.

FutureManagement Group AG

H.G. Hudson and Associates

KAIROS Future AB

Wallufer Strasse 3a, Eltville, Germany D-65343 Phone: 49-6123-7 55 53 Fax: 49-6123-7 55 54 Web: www.FutureManagementGroup.com E-mail: Office@FutureManagementGroup.com Contacts: Pero Micic, Claudia Schramm Use the “Eltville Model” of FutureManagement to see more of the future than your competitors!

34 Warren Dr., Newport News, VA 23608 Phone: 757-874-5414 E-mail: HUDSON2059@msn.com Contact: Henry G. Hudson, president and CEO Management consulting help in advanced administrative services, operations, systems, methods, procedures, policies, strategy, and management.

P.O. Box 804, S-10136 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: (46 8) 545 225 00 Fax: (46 8) 545 225 01 E-mail: info@kairosfuture.se Web: www.kairosfuture.se Contacts: Mats Lindgren, Anna Kiefer Values, work, technology, marketing. Methods: scenarios, studies, lectures, seminars, consulting. Public and private sectors.

Future Problem Solving Program International, Inc.

Innovation Focus Inc.

2015 Grant Pl., Melbourne, FL 32901 Phone: 321-768-0078 Fax: 321-768-0097 E-mail: mail@fpspi.org Web: www.fpspi.org Contact: Marianne Solomon, Executive Director FPSPI is an established educational program that provides a 6-step problem solving process to assist students as they think about the future.

111 E. Chestnut St., Lancaster PA 17602-2703 Phone: 717-394-2500 Web: www.innovationfocus.com Contacts: Christopher W. Miller, Ph.D.; Anne Orban, M.Ed. Innovation Focus is an internationally recognized consulting firm that brings innovation to all stages of product life cycle management and provides proven processes for deep customer understanding and meaningful innovation. Clients include: Kraft Foods, Kimberly Clark, WD-40, Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Kemp Consulting, LLC

Institute for Alternative Futures

Leading Futurists LLC

100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures.com Contacts: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, William Rowley, MD Uses research reports, workshops, scenarios, and visioning to help organizations understand future possibilities and create their “preferred future.”

4420 49th St., NW, Washington, DC 20016 Phone: 202-271-0444 E-mail: jbmahaffie@starpower.net Web: www.leadingfuturists.biz Contacts: John B. Mahaffie, Jennifer Jarratt Futures consulting, workshops, scenarios, research, keynote talks to help organizations discover new opportunities and challenges. Members, Association of Professional Futurists.

The Futures Corporation 1109 Main St., Ste. 299A, Boise, ID 83702 Phone: 208-345-5995 Fax: 208-345-6083 E-mail: JLuthy@futurescorp.com Web: www.futurescorp.com Contact: Dr. John Luthy Strategic thinking/planning; evolving leadership; organization redesign/development; trend analysis; scenario planning; business growth strategies.

The Futures Lab 2130 Goodrich Ave., Austin, TX 78704 Phone: 512-468-4505 E-mail: dwoodgate@futures-lab.com Web: www.futures-lab.com Contact: Derek Woodgate International futures-based consultancy specializing in consumer, business futures. Leaders in the future potential business.

The Greenway Group 25 Technology Pkwy. South, Suite 101, Norcross, GA 30092 Phone: 678-879-0929 Fax: 678-879-0930 E-mail: jcramer@di.net Web: www.greenway.us Contact: James Cramer, chairman Strategic change, trends, forecasts, research. Architecture and design technology. Journals: Design Intelligence. Publications: The Almanac of Architecture & Design, How Firms Succeed, Design + Enterprise, Leadership by Design, Communication by Design, Value Redesigned.

P.O. Box 342, Meriden, CT 06450-0342 Phone: 203-686-0281 Fax: 203-265-2746 E-mail: rlkbsr@snet.net Web: www.linkedin.com/in/rogerlkemp Contact: Dr. Roger L. Kemp, president and CEO Dr. Kemp has been author, editor, and contributing author to nearly 50 books dealing with cities and their future. He gives keynote speeches, strategic briefings, and does futures research and consulting on emerging trends in cities, both in the U.S. and internationally.

MG Rush Performance Learning

Institute for Global Futures 2084 Union St., San Francisco, CA 94123 Phone: 415-563-0720 Fax: 415-563-0219 E-mail: info@globalfuturist.com Web: www.GlobalFuturist.com Contact: Dr. James Canton Futures based keynotes, consulting and research for any vertical industry by leading futurist James Canton.

Institute for Participatory Management and Planning P.O. Box 1937, Monterey, CA 93942-1937 Phone: 831-373-4292 Fax: 831-373-0760 E-mail: ipmp@aol.com Web: www.ipmp-bleiker.com Contacts: Annemarie Bleiker, Hans Bleiker, Jennifer Bleiker We offer a Leadership Boot-Camp for guiding complex problem-solving and decision-making efforts.

1301 W. 22nd St., Suite 603, Oak Brook, IL 60523

Phone: 630-954-5880 Fax: 630-954-5889 E-mail: info@mgrush.com Contacts: Terrence Metz, Kevin Booth Facilitative leadership training, group decisionmaking methods and tools, facilitation, keynotes, workshop design and facilitation.

Minkin Affiliates 135 Riviera Dr., #305, Los Gatos, CA 95032 Phone: 408-402-3020 E-mail: barryminkin@earthlink.net Web: minkinaffiliates.com Contact: Barry Minkin Keynote speaker, bestselling author, global management consultant, three decades linking emerging trends to consumer and market strategy.

More consultants and services, next page THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Consultants

and

Services

Next Consulting 104 Timber Ridge Rd., State College, PA 16801 Phone: 814-237-2575 Fax: 814-863-4257 E-mail: g7g@psu.edu Web: nextconsulting.us Contact: Geoffrey Godbey, Ph.D. Repositioning leisure/tourism organizations for the near future. Speeches, ideation, imagineering. Client list on request.

Jim Pinto Associates 11645 Caminito Magnifica, San Diego, CA 92131-2119 Phone: 858-695-6788 E-mail: jim@jimpinto.com Web: www.JimPinto.com Contact: Jim Pinto Speaker and consultant: technology futures, industrial automation, global business trends, Internet business relationships.

Pinyon Partners LLC 140 Little Falls St., Suite 210, Falls Church, VA 22046 Phone: 703-651-0359 E-mail: pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com Web: www.pinyonpartners.com Contacts: Peter B.G. Shoemaker; Dan Garretson, Ph.D. Quantitative and qualitative. Art and Science. However you want to characterize it, our distinctive combination of the hard-nosed and the deeply intuitive is perfectly suited for those navigating over the horizon. Expansive explorations of what’s next; engaging engagements with change; consultations, workshops, research, and talks aimed at creating future-oriented clarity, purpose, insight, and confidence. Member, Association of Professional Futurists.

Qi Systems 35 Seacoast Terr., Apt. 6P, Brooklyn, NY 11235 Phone: 718-769-9655 E-mail: QiSys@msn.com Web: www.qisystems.org Contact: Ronn Parker, Ph.D. Spectrum Counseling: conflict resolution, conscious evolution, martial arts, meditation methods, mindbody strategies, transformational learning.

Connect! 46

THE FUTURIST

David Pearce Snyder, Consulting Futurist The Snyder Family Enterprise, 8628 Garfield St., Bethesda, MD 20817-6704 Phone: 301-530-5807 Fax: 301-530-1028 E-mail: david@the-futurist.com Web: www.the-futurist.com Contact: Sue Snyder High-impact motivating presentations. Strategic assessments, socio-technologic forecasts/scenarios. Keynote addresses, strategic briefings, workshops, surveys.

Strategic Futures® Strategic Futures Consulting Group, Inc. 113 South Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone: 703-836-8383 Fax: 703-836-9192 E-mail: info@strategicfutures.com Web: www.strategicfutures.com Contact: Ron Gunn or Jennifer Thompson Strategic planning, succession planning including mentoring, executive coaching, organizational change facilitation, and matrix management assistance.

The TechCast Project Department of Information Systems & Technology Management, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052 Phone: 202-994-5975 E-mail: Halal@gwu.edu Web: www.techcast.org Contact: William E. Halal, professor, George Washington University; president, Techcast LLC TechCast is an online research project that pools the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Results are updated in real time and distributed to corporations, governments, and other subscribers to aid in their strategic planning. The project has been featured in The Washington Post, Newsweek, The Futurist, and various journals. The National Academies consider TechCast among the best systems available, and Google ranks it No. 2 or 3 out of 45 million hits. TechCast also gives presentations, conducts customized studies, and performs most types of consulting related to technology and strategic change.

van der Werff Global, Ltd. SynOvation Solutions 455 Hazelwood Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94127 Phone: 415-298-3008 E-mail: info@synovationsolutions.com Web: www.synovationsolutions.com Contacts: Bruce L. Tow, David A. Gilliam Future-is-now resources to help you achieve key and mission-critical breakthroughs or creatively evolve your business to meet future challenges.

Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd. Belsize Park, London NW3 UK Phone: 44-207-449-2903 Fax: 44-870-136-5560 E-mail: www.hardintibbs.com Web: www.synthstrat.com Contact: Hardin Tibbs, CEO Synthesys specializes in using futures research to develop innovative strategies. Based in London UK, with international experience in both the public and private sectors, across many different industries. Projects include horizon scanning, strategic sense-making, scenarios, vision building, assumption testing, and strategy formulation, either as expert input or by co-production directly with leadership teams.

4958 Crystal Circle, Hoover, AL 35226 Phone: 888-448-3779 Fax: 888-432-9263 E-mail: terry@globalfuture.com Web: www.globalfuture.com Contact: Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC Confidential advisor to corporate leaders worldwide on global trends, executive leadership, and strategic change.

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. 200 E. 33rd St., Suite 9I, New York, NY 10016 Phone: 212-889-7007 Fax: 212-679-0628 E-mail: info@weineredrichbrown.com Web: www.weineredrichbrown.com Contact: Arnold Brown, Edie Weiner For over two decades, the pioneers in detecting emerging trends and linking them to a ction.

Xland sprl 111 Av Grandchamp, Brussels, Belgium 1150 Phone: 32-475-827-190 Fax: 32-2-762-46-08 Web: www.xland.be E-mail: xland@skynet.be Contact: D. Michel Judkiewicz Trend analysis, scenarios, forecasting opportunities/threats based on strong and weak signals for resilient strategies.

Link to futurist consultants and services online at www.wfs.org/consultants

January-February 2011

Book Reviews Human Civilization Migrates Northward By Rick Docksai

A geologist notes worldchanging population and economic shifts. Brazil, China, or Iceland—which country’s population will grow the fastest between now and 2050? The answer is Iceland, according to Laurence C. Smith in The World in 2050. The UCLA geologist envisions a “New North”—comprising Canada, the United States, Russia, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Greenland—of intense activity, expansion, and economic growth. The populations of Canada, Iceland, and Norway will all grow by 20% or more. Smith identifies four forces of change behind this great shift—demography, increasing strain on the earth’s resources, globalization, and climate change—and the specific ways that each force may shape human civilization in the next four decades. “Big changes often just sort of ease their way in,” he says. “And quietly change the world.” Four Forces Shaping the Future • Demography. In 2008, for the first time in history, more humans were living in cities than in rural areas. Urbanization will continue and will necessitate expert growth management. Industrialized countries will also need to worry about their rapidly growing elderly populations. By 2050, the nursing homes of Brazil, Russia, India, and China may be full to the brim, and none of the four countries may have enough employees to staff them. The highest fertility rates will be in developing nations. But before their young people can take up needed jobs in industrialized nations, their societies will need to boost education, security, and governance so that

rise of 5°C or higher. Smith writes that he took great care to make his forecasts the earth’s resources. realistic and based on The world is projected trends already under to consume 106 milway. That meant steerlion barrels of oil a ing clear of discussing day by 2030. Pressure wild-card shocks, will mount to tap any apocalyptic doomsday existing reserves. Russcenarios, or other sia in particular will radical changes in the aggressively develop status quo. its vast oil fields and “The described outcompete with its comes favor the likely neighbors to drill the over the unlikely. I pristine ice fields of The World in 2050: Four honestly expect, Forces Shaping Civilization’s the Arctic Circle. should I live long The world’s popula- Northern Future by Laurence enough, that I will see tion will grow 50% by C. Smith. Dutton. 2010. 322 them within my life2 0 5 0 , a n d a l l t h a t pages. $26.95. time,” Smith writes. growth will require The World in 2050 is enormous increases in crop produc- a plausible vision of what the world tion to feed it. Worldwide freshwater may look like four decades from tosources are already running low due day. Smith convincingly states not to pollution and massive irrigation. only what he expects to see, but also • Globalization. Canada, Russia, why he expects to see it. the United States, and other northern nations all depend heavily on mi- About the Reviewer grant workers to fill needed labor Rick Docksai is a staff editor of THE jobs. These countries’ need for mi- FUTURIST and World Future Review. grants will rise considerably to sustain growing industries despite population aging. All nations will have ooks in rief to ease their immigration restrictions and discourage any surges of xenoEdited by Rick Docksai phobia, according to Smith. The now-sparsely settled Arctic will see major influxes of settlers. Smith expects that it could host Message in Our Bottles growing urban centers and larger abBottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our original communities. • Climate change. Shifts in the Obsession with Bottled Water by Peter H. earth’s climate are bound to unfold Gleick. 2010. 211 pages. AMACOM. erratically over time, though the $26.96. long-term result will be significantly Consumption of bottled water has higher temperatures. The Arctic could be seasonally ice-free by 2050, skyrocketed over the last few decand human infrastructures through- ades, says globally recognized water out the far north will be severely expert Peter Gleick. However, he thinks that the tide may be turning. challenged. Some amount of warming is inevi- In Bottled and Sold, he describes a table no matter what actions the “war on bottled water” now under world takes now, but decisive reduc- way in offices, recreation centers, restions in carbon emissions during this taurants, and private homes across century could keep the warming to a the globe. Consumers and businesses are inmoderate 2.5°C increase instead of a they will have opportunities to gain education and job training. • Growing strain on

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Book Reviews

creasingly forgoing bottled water and getting their water exclusively from the tap, Gleick notes. Cities are banning municipal purchases of it, and some restaurants are eliminating it from their menus. Environmental concerns are a prime motivator: Every plastic bottle requires water and electricity to produce it and to move it onto a store shelf. Other critics worry about the human costs; they believe that bottled water imposes undue burdens on low-income persons. And some just hold a philosophical grudge against corporate ownership of water. Whatever their reasons, says Gleick, the boycotters are sufficiently numerous to put the most prominent bottled-water industry associations on “crisis footing.” Bottled and Sold is a book that environmentalists, water experts, and all who follow consumer trends will want to read.

Building for a Hotter Planet Climatopolis: How Our Cities Will Thrive in the Hotter Future by Matthew Kahn. Basic. 2010. 260 pages. Paperback. $26.95.

Construction and housing in cities around the world will be forced to adapt to global climate change, forecasts environmentalist Matthew Kahn. In Climatopolis, he describes how increased flooding, higher temperatures, and erratic weather patterns in general will force planners to redesign urban housing units worldwide in the next few decades. Climate change will affect different cities differently, he argues. Coastal cities will face unique health and economic difficulties, while inland cities may be confronted with mass migrations of “climate refugees.” In 48

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addition, architects and home buyers in many places will have to plan ahead for increased risks of floods, droughts, or wildfires. Kahn expresses hope that, through innovation and careful planning, cities might ensure a desirable quality of life for their residents in the face of longterm climate change. He includes a “top five” list of U.S. cities that are currently bestprotected against climate change’s effects: Detroit, Michigan; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Buffalo, New York; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Salt Lake City, Utah. Climate researchers, engineers, and urban planners will all find Climatopolis educational.

Robotic Imitation of Life How to Catch a Robot Rat: When Biology Inspires Innovation by Agnès Guillot and Jean-Arcady Meyer. 2010. 226 pages. MIT Press. $29.95.

Human engineers draw some of their best inspirations from nature, according to technology researchers Agnès Guillot and Jean-Arcady Meyer in How to Catch a Robot Rat. The authors introduce readers to “the new bionics,” a field that integrates biology and engineering. Guillot and Meyer share examples of recent innovations in new bionics. For example, observations of the iridescence of butterfly wings gave rise to new high-resolution video screens. And studying the powerful auditory

January-February 2011

systems of owls, which can track even the most muffled sound in a nighttime forest, clued a German company in on how to build an acoustic camera whose hyper-sensitive microphones can locate and capture sounds inaudible to humans. Many more breakthroughs are soon to come. Some aquariums have debuted robotic fish that look and swim almost exactly like real fish. Prototype walking robots move faster than present-day ones because their designs are based on the bodies of cockroaches. And new drone airplanes have wings that flap like birds and insects. Guillot and Meyer are hopeful that, over time, new bionics will create robots that behave like animals, too: They will learn, think, and adapt to changes in their environments. How to Catch a Robot Rat is an engaging introduction to revolutionary new fields in robotics that is appropriate for experts and general audiences alike.

Forecasting for Economic Peaks and Valleys Outrageous Fortunes: The Twelve Surprising Trends That Will Reshape the Global Economy by Daniel Altman. 2011. 244 pages. Holt. $25.

China’s seemingly invincible economy won’t flourish forever, says economist Daniel Altman. In Outrageous Fortunes, he forecasts that the Chinese economy’s structural weaknesses will overtake it later this century and cause the nation to grow poorer even after so many decades of growing richer. Many nations around the world will experience financial turbulence as they strive for the highest possible living standards but are hampered by market instability and shortages of human and material resources. National economic policies will shift back and forth, and waves of immigration will challenge both developing and industrialized economies. Keeping track of the global mar-

ketplace’s daily rising and falling indexes while still maintaining sight of the long term could seem difficult, says Altman, but he assures readers that it’s actually fairly understandable. If we grasp the deep-rooted economic factors that sway a country’s economic path, we can make fairly accurate guesses as to where the path will lead. He identifies a series of factors that he expects will markedly shake up the markets of China and Europe, demolish the World Trade Organization, and generate unexpected new job opportunities in the United States. He spots some impending risks, as well, such as worldwide expansion of “black market” activity. Outrageous Fortunes is an economic treatise that is incisive and approachable enough for economists and general audiences alike.

Reality Check for Space Travel Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the Void by Mary Roach. 2010. 334 pages. W.W. Norton. $25.95.

Travel to Mars is feasible, but the astronauts who attempt it will have to contend with tremendous psychological and physical pressures—cramped confinements, sterile surroundings, and isolation more profound than any humans before them have ever experienced—says science writer Mary Roach in Packing for Mars. She visits space-travel research stations to witness the isolation chambers, antigravity rooms, and other experimental units that astronauts today are using to prepare for future voyages into deep space. As she describes each exercise the flight crews undertake, she shares the unique forms of vertigo, disorientation, visual illusions, and other

sensations that the low-gravity environs of space will impose on human space travelers. Roach adds the even more grueling experiments into how weeks or months of immobility would impact astronauts’ bodies—a key concern, since missions to other planets might require keeping the human crew in hibernation states for the duration of the voyages. Roach’s Packing for Mars is a reality check into the challenges of deep space and how humans can gear up now to meet them. It’s worthwhile reading for aspiring astronauts, space enthusiasts, and all who take great interest in humanity’s potential future in space.

disasters are preventable, he says, but the leadership has to be aware and pay attention to the information at the ground level. Koletar presents action strategies for business and organization leaders who want to raise their own foresight and keep their operations safe over the long term. Through examples of businesses that did not watch for risks, he teaches lessons on risk analysis, employee training, accountability, organizational intelligence, and the risk mechanisms that a business can put in place to stay aware and secure. Rethinking Risk is a guide that leaders in any industry or sector may want to consult. ❏

Strategies and Technologies for a Sustainable Future

Averting Risky Business Rethinking Risk: How Companies Sabotage Themselves and What They Must Do Differently by Joseph W. Koletar. 2011. 242 pages. AMACOM. $29.95.

Most business executives are vigilant about identifying strong competitors and important technological developments, but they often fail to watch for the broader array of reallife risks, argues Joseph Koletar in Rethinking Risk. The consequences, he concludes, fill newspaper headlines: BP’s oil rig breaks and wreaks havoc on the Gulf of Mexico, Toyota must recall hundreds of thousands of cars due to faulty brakes, and 9 million Mattel toys made in China are found to be laced with lead paint. Koletar, who directed the fraud investigations of Ernst & Young and Deloitte & Touche, argues that the mistake that BP, Toyota, and other leaders in these and similar incidents made was not greed or carelessness, but rather a failure to plan ahead and avert the approaching danger. Most

Three dozen of the world’s leading “practical visionaries” offer sweeping perspectives and big-picture thinking in this volume of 25 essays prepared for the World Future Society’s 2010 annual meeting. Topics explored include: • New ways to collect intelligence to solve global problems. • Strategies for improving creativity among futurists. • Ways that technology can improve both our health and our health-care systems. • How conscious machines may one day inspire us with ideas of their own. • A profile of what qualities an “anticipatory leader” should have. … and much more! Strategies and Technologies for a Sustainable Future, edited by Cynthia G. Wagner. WFS. 2010. 480 pages. Paperback. ISBN: 978-0-930242-67-1. $29.95, or $24.95 for Society members, plus shipping and handling. Order online at www.wfs.org/wfsbooks or call 1-800-989-8274.

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

WorldFuture 2011 Moving from Vision to Action

TOURISM VANCOUVER

When: Friday evening, July 8, 2011, through Sunday,

Networking Opportunities: A complimentary wel-

Where: Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre Hotel, Van-

Conference Volume: An exclusive benefit for all

July 10, 2011. Education Summit and preconference courses on Thursday and Friday, July 7 and 8, and Professional Members’ Forum on Monday, July 11.

couver, BC, Canada.

Who: Approximately 1,000 futurists from around the

world.

What: The WorldFuture 2011 program will feature bigpicture thinking and practical visions from a diverse array of participants in a variety of disciplines. Topics: Technology, education, health, business issues,

families, communities, work trends, social change, the environment and resources, globalization, governance, futures methodologies, and much more.

Special Events: Preconference courses, tours, meet-theauthor sessions, career counseling, tabletop exhibits, and more activities are planned.

coming reception, two keynote luncheons, group business meetings, reserved networking areas throughout the meeting, and more.

attendees is a complimentary copy of a volume of essays intended to lay the groundwork for the ideas you’ll be discussing during the meeting. To submit a paper for consideration, please visit www.wfs.org/content /worldfuture-2011. Deadline: February 21.

Host City: Vancouver, host of the 2010 Winter Olym-

pics, shows off its milder side in summer, with average daily temperatures ranging about 13°C to 22°C (55°F to 71°F). Plan visits to the Vancouver Art Gallery, Science World, Pacific Space Center, Maritime Museum, or the Museum of Anthropology; take the Sea Wall Walking Tour; or browse the boutiques along Robson Street and Yaletown. Learn more at Tourism Vancouver, www.tourismvancouver.com/visitors.

WorldFuture 2011 Conference Speakers Approximately 150 futurists from around the world will converge at WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action. Among the outstanding speakers confirmed so far are: Luncheon Speaker — Lawson Brigham, Distinguished Professor of Geography & Arctic Policy, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

Aubrey de Grey, biomedical

gerontologist, chief science officer of SENS Foundation, a California- registered nonprofit charity dedicated to combating the aging process; also editor-in-chief of Rejuvenation Research, the premier academic journal in the field of biomedical gerontology

Ramez Naam, technologist and author of More Than Human

Conference Accommodations at Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre Hotel Gracious surroundings, dazzling views, and unsurpassed service in an extraordinary urban oasis make this hotel an ideal place for the conference, WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action. Located in the midst of dynamic, spectacular-by-nature Vancouver, Canada, the Sheraton Wall Centre is a stunning environment that embodies the classic art of a fine hotel. Ideally located in the heart of the city’s business, financial, and shopping districts, the hotel offers guests a wide range of facilities and services. The hotel has 733 guestrooms, all of which are well decorated and equipped with several modern amenities. Guestrooms, with floor-to-ceiling windows and stunning panoramic vistas, exhibit distinctive furnishings, duvets, and superior bedding. Specially adapted rooms for guests with disabilities ensure that comfort is inclusive! Reserve your room now, and mention World Future Society for the special conference rate of $179 USD. Call 1-604-331-1000 or 1-888-663-9255, or visit the WorldFuture 2011 meeting homepage for a link to the hotel.

Why Showcase Your Company at WorldFuture 2011? Marian Salzman, president of Euro RSCG Worldwide PR North America

Education Summit leader — David Pearce Snyder, consulting futurist, Snyder Family Enterprise; author of numerous books on future trends; FUTURIST magazine contributing editor on Lifestyles; Bethesda, Maryland

Back by enormously popular demand — Edie Weiner, vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.; co-author, FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, New York, New York

The people attending WorldFuture 2011: Moving from Vision to Action are some of the most progressive, motivated, and affluent people you will find at any meeting. These are the people who have the influence and resources to acquire books, computers, memberships, and new and innovative technologies of all kinds. In addition, media coverage of World Future Society conferences and exhibits has historically been heavy. Articles about meetings have appeared in not only the New York Times and the Washington Post, but also on front pages as far away as India. TV coverage has included many international as well as U.S. networks. There’s simply no other way you can reach so many important people for so little money. Displaying is a cost-efficient way to meet the people you want to sell to, faceto-face. Contact Jennifer Boykin, WFS Director of Development, for more information: 301-656-8274.

WorldFuture 2011 Moving from Vision to Action

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E-mail

Covering all issues from January-February 2010 through November-December 2010 (Volume 44)

2010 Subject/Author Index to

THE FUTURIST

Feature Articles, Book Reviews, and World Trends & Forecasts SUBJECT INDEX

Literary Learning in the Hyper-Digital Age [2020 Visionaries special section], Mark Bauerlein, January-February 2010.

BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

Remaking Education for a New Century, an Interview with Janna Anderson [2020 Visionaries special section], January-February 2010.

Coming: The Biggest Boom Ever! McKinley Conway, May-June 2010. From Eco-Friendly to Eco-Intelligent, Erica Orange, September-October 2010. Life Dollars: Finding Currency in Community [2020 Visionaries special section], Douglas Rushkoff, September-October 2010. Navigating the Multipolar World: The Free Market vs. State Capitalism. An interview with Ian Bremmer [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010. The Post-Scarcity World of 2050-2075 by Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd, January-February 2010. The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario, Barton Kunstler, March-April 2010. A Software Business Model That Turns Users into Partners Jason P. Clark, July-August 2010. COMMUNICATIONS “Big Brother” versus “Little Brother”: Two Possible Media Futures [2020 Visionaries special section], Cory Ondrejka, March-April 2010. Cory Doctorow Meets the Public [2020 Visionaries special section], November-December 2010. Film’s Immortals: Forever Young and in 3-D, Cynthia G. Wagner, May-June 2010. The Future Then and Now: Electronic News papers, Cynthia G. Wagner, July-August 2010. Tapping the Cognitive Surplus [2020 Visionaries special section], Clay Shirky, NovemberDecember 2010. Tomorrow’s Interactive Television, John M. Smart, November-December 2010. Tried and True: Technological Transformation, from Paper to Disk to Cloud, Cynthia G. Wagner, September-October 2010. EDUCATION Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow, John Dew, March-April 2010.

ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES Conquering Climate Change [2020 Visionaries special section], Dennis M. Bushnell, MayJune 2010. How to Feed 8 Billion People, Lester R. Brown, January-February 2010. The Potential and Risks of Geoengineering [2020 Visionaries special section], Jamais Cascio, May-June 2010. Vertical Farming: An Idea Whose Time Has Come Back, Cynthia G. Wagner, March-April 2010.

GENERAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS Outlook 2011, FUTURIST staff, NovemberDecember 2010. Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts, Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, May-June 2010. Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments, Marvin J. Cetron and Owen Davies, July-August 2010. 2020 Visionaries [Introduction], Patrick Tucker, January-February 2010. GOVERNANCE Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis, Eric Meade, July-August 2010. Youth at Risk: A New Plan for Saving the World’s Most Precious Resource, Gene Stephens, July-August 2010. HABITATS

FUTURISM AND FORESIGHT Cultural “Stickiness” in Technological Forecasting, Samuel Gerald Collins, NovemberDecember 2010. Decision Making Under Pressure [Deciding Our Futures special section], Stan Shapiro, January-February 2010. Decision Modeling [Deciding Our Futures special section], The Futures Group International, January-February 2010. The Dymaxion Dream Reincarnate, Cynthia G. Wagner, January-February 2010. Foresight Conquers Fear of the Future, Edward Cornish, January-February 2010. Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty [Deciding Our Futures special section], Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, January-February 2010. Managing Your Mind [Deciding Our Futures special section], Michael J. Mauboussin, January-February 2010. Smart People, Dumb Decisions, Michael J. Mauboussin, March-April 2010. Strategies for Living a Very Long Life, Verne Wheelwright, November-December 2010. Wisdom Facing Forward: What It Means to Have Heightened Future Consciousness, Tom Lombardo, September-October 2010.

Garden Atriums: A Model for Sustainable Building, Stuart W. Rose, July-August 2010. Learning from Slums, Building for Communities [2020 Visionaries special section], Pavlina Ilieva and Kuo Pao Lian, SeptemberOctober 2010. HEALTH AND MEDICINE The Future of Nanomedicine [2020 Visionaries special section], Robert A. Freitas Jr., January-February 2010. Reinventing the Pharmaceutical Industry— without the Industry [2020 Visionaries special section], Andrew Hessel, JanuaryFebruary 2010. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY The Age of the Interface, Richard Yonck, MayJune 2010. SOCIETY AND VALUES Reinventing the Luddite: An Interview with Andrew Keen [2020 Visionaries special section], March-April 2010. Finding Faith in Humankind [2020 Visionaries special section], Roy Speckhardt, MarchApril 2010.

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

The New Monogamy: Forward to the Past [2020 Visionaries special section], Helen Fisher, November-December 2010. Nurturing the Spirit in the Age of the Web [2020 Visionaries special section], Ayyā Gotamī, Dr. Rev. Prem Suksawat, March-April 2010. We Need a Hero [2020 Visionaries special section], Philip Zimbardo, November-December 2010. TRANSPORTATION Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy, Michael Horn, March-April 2010.

icine [box], Richard Yonck, NovemberDecember 2010.

Prospects for Truth and Freedom, May-June 2010.

Creating Intelligent Countries through Forward Engagement [box], Wendy McGuinness, November-December 2010.

Social Networking and Open Government, July-August 2010.

Foresight for the World’s Youth, Edward Cornish, September-October 2010. “Global Megacrisis” Survey: How Big? What’s Likely by 2020? [box], Wilton A. (Bud) Roberts, November-December 2010. Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, Cynthia G. Wagner, NovemberDecember 2010.

Sustainable Urban Mobility in 2020 [2020 Visionaries special section], Ryan Chin, JulyAugust 2010.

Writing for Rights: An Interview with Iranian Dissident Azar Nafisi [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010. WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY Challenges and Opportunities in Space Med-

WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS DEMOGRAPHY Fearlessness and the Future Criminal, MarchApril 2010. Homosexuality and Family Formation, MayJune 2010. Latinos Online, July-August 2010. Retirement Crisis for Hispanic Americans, January-February 2010.

Statement required by the Act of August 21, 1970, Section 3685, Title 39, United States Code, showing the ownership, management, and circulation of THE FUTURIST.

The Truth about Teenaged Parents, MarchApril 2010.

Publisher: World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814.

Wiring the Elderly, March-April 2010.

Office of publication: 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814-3032 (Montgomery County).

Editor: Edward Cornish, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. Managing Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814.

Owner: World Future Society (a nonprofit corporation with no stockholders). Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security holders owning or holding 1% or more of the total amount of bonds, mortgages, or other securities: None.

U.S.–Canadian Health Disparities, SeptemberOctober 2010.

ECONOMICS Demand Grows for Food Assistance, MarchApril 2010. Murderous Economics, January-February 2010.

Average No. Actual No. Copies Each Copies of Issue During Single Issue Preceding 12 Published Months Nearest to Filing Date (Sep.-Oct. 2010) A. Total No. Copies Printed 14,624 14,443 B. Paid Circulation 1. Sales Through Dealers and Carriers, Street Vendors & Counter Sales 839 795 2. Mailed Outside-County Subscription 10,290 10,288 3. Mailed In-County Subscription 0 0 4. Other classes mailed through USPS 467 359 C. Total Paid Circulation 11,596 11,442 D. Free Distribution 1. Free or Nominal Rate Outside-County Copies 46 45 2. Free or Nominal Rate In-County Copies 0 0 3. Free or Nominal Rate Copies Mailed at Other Classes Through the USPS 99 98 4. Free or Nominal Rate Distribution Outside the Mail 0 0 E. Total Free or Nominal Rate Distribution 145 143 F. Total Distribution 11,741 11,585 G. Copies Not Distributed 2,883 2,858 H. Total 14,624 14,443 I. Percent Paid 98.8% 98.8%

A New Generation of Business Leaders, JulyAugust 2010.

I certify that the statements made above by me are correct and complete. — Jefferson Cornish, Business Manager.

Ecosystems Get Their Day in Court, SeptemberOctober 2010.

THE FUTURIST

U.S. Military Develops Hopping Robots, March-April 2010. What Quantum Computing Means for National Security, July-August 2010. SOCIETY Diet for a Healthier Planet, NovemberDecember 2010. Hooked on Noise? November-December 2010.

WORLD AFFAIRS Asia Redraws the Map of Progress, Joergen Oerstroem Moeller, September-October 2010.

Tweet Patrol, November-December 2010.

Pop Music as an Economic Indicator, MarchApril 2010.

Music Appreciation 2.0: To Store or to Stream? September-October 2010. Networked Learning, January-February 2010. Saving a Tribal Language, January-February 2010. Teaching Social Skills, May-June 2010. TECHNOLOGY Digital Bandage Monitors Vital Signs, MarchApril 2010. Down-to-Earth NASA, July-August 2010. Fate of the Galaxy, January-February 2010. Gene Therapy Gets a Boost, NovemberDecember 2010. Homes Are Getting Smarter, July-August 2010. Nanowires Will Make Computers Smarter, May-June 2010. Prospects for Brain–Computer Interfacing, September-October 2010. The Science of “Tipping Points,” JanuaryFebruary 2010. A Search Engine That Listens, JanuaryFebruary 2010. Smarter Trash, January-February 2010.

Reinventing the Music Business, JanuaryFebruary 2010. Tourism Booms as Arctic Melts, May-June 2010. ENVIRONMENT Animal Species Find Strength in Numbers, March-April 2010. Arctic Species at the Cliff’s Edge, JanuaryFebruary 2010. Bioprospecting in the Arctic Ocean, November-December 2010. Designing Buildings for Climate Change, September-October 2010. Living in the Line of Fire, July-August 2010. Reviving the Aral Sea, March-April 2010. GOVERNMENT

January-February 2011

BOOKS REVIEWED Antarctica 2041: My Quest to Save the Earth’s Last Wilderness, Robert Swan with Gil Reavil [Books in Brief], January-February 2010. Apocalypse Never: Forging the Path to a Nuclear Weapon-Free World, Tad Daley [Books in Brief], September-October 2010. Brain Sense: The Science of the Senses and How We Process the World Around Us, Faith Hickman Brynie [Books in Brief], MarchApril 2010. Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis, Richard Heinberg [Books in Brief], May-June 2010. Change by Design: How Design Thinking Transforms Organizations and Inspires Innovation, Tim Brown [Books in Brief], May-June 2010.

Change Design: Conversations about Architecture as the Ultimate Business Tool, NBBJ and Bruce Mau [Books in Brief], March-April 2010. Change the World, Change Your Life: Discover Your Life Purpose Through Service, Angela Perkey [Books in Brief], SeptemberOctober 2010. China’s Megatrends: The 8 Pillars of a New Society, John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt [reviewed by Patrick Tucker], May-June 2010. Chips, Clones, and Living Beyond 100, Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Joyce A. Schoemaker [reviewed by Aaron M. Cohen], March-April 2010. Cosmic Conversations: Dialogues on the Nature of the Universe and the Search for Reality, Stephan Martin [Books in Brief], May-June 2010. Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us, Daniel Pink [reviewed by Patrick Tucker], September-October 2010. The Economics of Integrity: From Dairy Farmers to Toyota, How Wealth Is Built on Trust and What That Means for Our Future, Anna Bernasek [Books in Brief], July-August 2010. The Ecotechnic Future, John Michael Greer [reviewed by Rick Docksai], March-April 2010. The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? Ian Bremmer [Books in Brief], May-June 2010.

The Lifestyle Puzzle: Who We Are in the 21st Century, Henrik Vejlgaard [Books in Brief], September-October 2010.

Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice, Gal Luft and Anne Korin [Books in Brief], May-June 2010.

Lightcraft Flight Handbook LTI-20, Leik Myrabo and John S. Lewis [Books in Brief], May-June 2010.

2009 State of the Future, Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu [reviewed by Rick Docksai], January-February 2010.

The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, Martin Ford [reviewed by Patrick Tucker], September-October 2010. Making the Invisible Visible: Essays by the Fellows of the International Leadership Forum, edited by Richard Farson [Books in Brief], March-April 2010.

2048: Humanity’s Agreement to Live Together, J. Kirk Boyd [Books in Brief], July-August 2010.

Minitrends: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit from Business & Technology Trends, John Vanston with Carrie Vanston [reviewed by David Pearce Snyder], November-December 2010.

Upstarts: How Gen Y Entrepreneurs Are Rocking the World of Business and 8 Ways You Can Profit from Their Success, Donna Fenn [Books in Brief], March-April 2010.

The Money Myth: School Resources, Outcomes, and Equity, W. Norton Grubb [Books in Brief], January-February 2010. The Neuro Revolution: How Brain Science Is Changing Our World, Zack Lynch, with Byron Laursen [Books in Brief], SeptemberOctober 2010. New Flows in Global TV, Albert Moran [Books in Brief], November-December 2010. Odyssey of a Practical Visionary, Belden Paulson [Books in Brief], January-February 2010.

The Farthest Shore: A 21st Century Guide to Space, edited by Joseph N. Pelton and Angelia P. Bukley [Books in Brief], NovemberDecember 2010.

Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet, Tim Jackson [Books in Brief], September-October 2010.

The Flooded Earth: Our Future in a World Without Ice Caps, Peter Ward [Books in Brief], September-October 2010. Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants to and from the United States, National Research Council [Books in Brief], July-August 2010. Good Faith Collaboration: The Culture of Wikipedia, Joseph Michael Reagle Jr. [Books in Brief], November-December 2010. The Great Reset: How New Ways of Living and Working Drive Post-Crash Prosperity, Richard Florida [Books in Brief], NovemberDecember 2010. How to Defeat Your Own Clone: And Other Tips for Surviving the Biotech Revolution, Kyle Kurpinski and Terry Johnson [reviewed by Rick Docksai], July-August 2010. How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times, James Wesley Rawles [Books in Brief], March-April 2010. Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World, Bob Johansen [Books in Brief], January-February 2010.

2030: A Day in the Life of Tomorrow’s Kids, Amy Zuckerman and James Daly [Books in Brief], January-February 2010.

Mega Disasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe, Florin Diacu [Books in Brief], May-June 2010.

Energy Crisis: Solution from Space, Ralph Nansen [Books in Brief], January-February 2010.

Fight for the Bay: Why a Dark Green Environmental Awakening Is Needed to Save the Chesapeake Bay, Howard R. Ernst [Books in Brief], March-April 2010.

2010 State of the Future, Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu [reviewed by Rick Docksai], NovemberDecember 2010.

The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, Matt Ridley [Books in Brief], September-October 2010. ReThink: A Twenty-First Century Approach to Preventing Social Catastrophes, Donald Louria [Books in Brief], May-June 2010. Rewilding the World: Dispatches from the Conservation Revolution, Caroline Fraser [Books in Brief], May-June 2010. The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains, Nicholas Carr [reviewed by Patrick Tucker], July-August 2010. The Smart Growth Manual, Andres Duany and Jeff Speck with Mike Lydon [Books in Brief], March-April 2010. The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger, Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett [Books in Brief], SeptemberOctober 2010. State of the World 2010: Transforming Cultures, Worldwatch Institute [Books in Brief], September-October 2010. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making, Gary Klein [Books in Brief], July-August 2010. Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard, Chip Heath and Dan Heath [Books in Brief], July-August 2010 Toward Human Emergence: A Human Resource Philosophy for the Future, Philip Harris [Books in Brief], July-August 2010.

The Vanishing of a Species? A Look at Modern Man’s Predicament by a Geologist Peter Gretener [Books in Brief], May-June 2010. The Viking in the Wheat Field: A Scientist’s Struggle to Preserve the World’s Harvest, Susan Dworkin [Books in Brief], March-April 2010. The Warcraft Civilization: Social Science in a Virtual World, William Sims Bainbridge [Books in Brief], July-August 2010. What Color Is Your Parachute? 2010: A Practical Manual for Job Hunters and Career Changers, Richard N. Bolles [Books in Brief], January-February 2010. Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto, Stewart Brand [reviewed by Aaron M. Cohen], January-February 2010. Why We Cooperate, Michael Tomasello et al. [Books in Brief], March-April 2010. Wired for Thought, Jeffrey M. Stibel [reviewed by Patrick Tucker], March-April 2010. Your Flying Car Awaits: Robot Butlers, Lunar Vacations, and Other Dead-Wrong Predictions of the Twentieth Century, Paul Milo [Books in Brief], July-August 2010

AUTHORS Aguilar-Millan, Stephen, Ann Feeney, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd, The PostScarcity World of 2050-2075, January-February 2010. Anderson, Janna [interview by Patrick Tucker], Remaking Education for a New Century [2020 Visionaries special section], JanuaryFebruary 2010. Bankes, Steven C., Robert J. Lempert, and Steven W. Popper, Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010. Bauerlein, Mark, Literary Learning in the HyperDigital Age [2020 Visionaries special section], January-February 2010. Bremmer, Ian [interview with], Navigating the

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Multipolar World: The Free Market vs. State Capitalism [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010.

Scarcity World of 2050-2075, January-February 2010.

Brown, Lester R., How to Feed 8 Billion People, January-February 2010.

Fisher, Helen, The New Monogamy: Forward to the Past [2020 Visionaries special section], November-December 2010.

Bushnell, Dennis M., Conquering Climate Change [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010.

Freitas, Robert A., Jr., The Future of Nanomedicine [2020 Visionaries special section], January-February 2010.

Cascio, Jamais, The Potential and Risks of Geoengineering [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010.

FUTURIST staff, Outlook 2011, NovemberDecember 2010.

Cetron, Marvin J., and Owen Davies, Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments, JulyAugust 2010; Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts, May-June 2010. Chin, Ryan, Sustainable Urban Mobility in 2020 [2020 Visionaries special section], JulyAugust 2010. Clark, Jason P., A Software Business Model That Turns Users into Partners [2020 Visionaries special section], July-August 2010. Cohen, Aaron M., Biotechnology’s Promise—and Risks [review of Chips, Clones, and Living Beyond 100 by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Joyce A. Schoemaker], March-April 2010; Stewart Brand’s Environmental Heresies [review of Whole Earth Discipline by Stewart Brand], January-February 2010. Collins, Samuel Gerald, Cultural “Stickiness” in Technological Forecasting, NovemberDecember 2010. Conway, McKinley, Coming: The Biggest Boom Ever! May-June 2010. Cornish, Edward, Foresight for the World’s Youth, September-October 2010; Foresight Conquers Fear of the Future, January-February 2010. Davies, Owen, and Marvin J. Cetron, Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments, JulyAugust 2010; Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts, May-June 2010. Dew, John, Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow, March-April 2010. Docksai, Rick, Foresight Across National Borders [review of 2010 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu], November-December 2010; Teaching 21st-Century Students [review of Creating the School You Want edited by Arthur B. Shostak], September-October 2010; Life among Clones [review of How to Defeat Your Own Clone: And Other Tips for Surviving the Biotech Revolution by Kyle Kurpinski and Terry Johnson], July-August 2010; Is Industrial Civilization Doomed? [review of The Ecotechnic Future by John Michael Greer], March-April 2010; Collecting Wisdom about the Future [review of 2009 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu], January-February 2010. Doctorow, Cory [interview], Cory Doctorow Meets the Public [2020 Visionaries special section], November-December 2010. Feeney, Ann, Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Amy Oberg, and Elizabeth Rudd, The Post-

THE FUTURIST

Gotamī, Ayyā (Dr. Rev. Prem Suksawat), Nurturing the Spirit in the Age of the Web [2020 Visionaries special section], March-April 2010. Hessel, Andrew, Reinventing the Pharmaceutical Industry—without the Industry [2020 Visionaries special section], January-February 2010. Horn, Michael, Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy, March-April 2010. Ilieva, Pavlina, and Kuo Pao Lian, Learning from Slums, Building for Communities [2020 Visionaries special section], SeptemberOctober 2010.

Steven C. Bankes, Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010. Roberts, Wilton A. (Bud), “Global Megacrisis” Survey: How Big? What’s Likely by 2020? [box], November-December 2010. Rose, Stuart W., Garden Atriums: A Model for Sustainable Building, July-August 2010. Rudd, Elizabeth, Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, and Amy Oberg, The PostScarcity World of 2050-2075, January-February 2010. Rushkoff, Douglas, Life Dollars: Finding Currency in Community [2020 Visionaries special section], September-October 2010. Shapiro, Stan, Decision Making Under Pressure [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010. Shirky, Clay, Tapping the Cognitive Surplus [2020 Visionaries special section], NovemberDecember 2010. Smart, John M., Tomorrow’s Interactive Television, November-December 2010.

Keen, Andrew [interview by Patrick Tucker], Reinventing the Luddite [2020 Visionaries special section], March-April 2010.

Snyder, David Pearce, In Forecasting, “Mini” Is Big [review of Minitrends by John Vanston with Carrie Vanston], November-December 2010.

Kunstler, Barton, The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario, March-April 2010.

Speckhardt, Roy, Finding Faith in Humankind [2020 Visionaries special section], MarchApril 2010.

Lempert, Robert J., Steven W . Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010.

Stephens, Gene, Youth at Risk: A New Plan for Saving the World’s Most Precious Resource, July-August 2010.

Lian, Kuo Pao, and Pavlina Ilieva, Learning from Slums, Building for Communities [2020 Visionaries special section], SeptemberOctober 2010. Lombardo, Tom, Wisdom Facing Forward: What It Means to Have Heightened Future Consciousness, September-October 2010. Mauboussin, Michael J., Smart People, Dumb Decisions, March-April 2010; Managing Your Mind [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010. McGuinness, Wendy, Creating Intelligent Countries through Forward Engagement [box], November-December 2010. Meade, Eric, Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis, July-August 2010. Moeller, Joergen Oerstroem, Asia Redraws the Map of Progress, September-October 2010. Nafisi, Azar [interview by Patrick Tucker], Iranian Dissident Writing for Rights [2020 Visionaries special section], May-June 2010. Oberg, Amy, Stephen Aguilar-Millan, Ann Feeney, and Elizabeth Rudd, The PostScarcity World of 2050-2075, January-February 2010. Ondrejka, Cory, “Big Brother” versus “Little Brother”: Two Possible Media Futures [2020 Visionaries special section], March-April 2010. Orange, Erica, From Eco-Friendly to Eco-Intelligent, September-October 2010. Popper, Steven W ., Robert J. Lempert, and

January-February 2011

The Futures Group International, Decision Modeling [Deciding Our Futures special section], January-February 2010. Tucker, Patrick, The Postemployment Economy [review of The Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford], September-October 2010; Driving Toward a New Destination [review of Drive by Daniel Pink], September-October 2010; What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains [review of The Shallows by Nicholas Carr], July-August 2010; China First [review of China’s Megatrends by John and Doris Naisbitt], May-June 2010; The Brain vs. the Web [review of Wired for Thought by Jeffrey M. Stibel], March-April 2010; 2020 Visionaries [Introduction], JanuaryFebruary 2010. Wagner, Cynthia G., Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies, November-December 2010; Tried and True: Technological Transformation, from Paper to Disk to Cloud, SeptemberOctober 2010; The Future Then and Now: Electronic Newspapers, July-August 2010; Film’s Immortals: Forever Young and in 3-D, MayJune 2010; Vertical Farming: An Idea Whose Time Has Come Back, March-April 2010; The Dymaxion Dream Reincarnate, JanuaryFebruary 2010. Wheelwright, Verne, Strategies for Living a Very Long Life, November-December 2010. Yonck, Richard, Challenges and Opportunities in Space Medicine [box], November-December 2010; The Age of the Interface, May-June 2010. Zimbardo, Philip, We Need a Hero [2020 Visionaries special section], November-December 2010.

World Future Society Programs The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization chartered in the District of Columbia, U.S.A., and is recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a tax-exempt organization. The Society has about 25,000 members and subscribers in 80 nations.

World Future society wfs.org

PUBLICATIONS

• The Futurist: A magazine published bimonthly, covering trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future. • Futurist Update: An e-mail newsletter available monthly to all members, covering a range of future-oriented news and useful links. • World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight: A bimonthly journal for futures practitioners and scholars, with articles on forecasting techniques and applications, profiles of futurists and organizations, and abstracts of current futures-relevant literature. ACTIVITIES AND RESOURCES

• Conferences: The Society holds at least one major conference per year, to which all Society members are invited. Most conferences cover a wide range of topics related to the future. Most conferences are in the United States, but the Society has also held meetings in Canada and Austria. • Groups: Futurist groups are active in a number of U.S. cities, such as Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta, and in more than two dozen countries. • Books: New books of special interest to members may be purchased through the Society’s partnership with Amazon.com. MEMBERSHIP PROGRAMS

• Regular Membership: Includes THE FUTURIST magazine; discounts on conferences and books published by the Society; and such other benefits as may be approved for members. Discounted memberships are also available for full-time students under age 25. • Professional Membership: Programs and publications are available to meet the special needs of practitioners, researchers, scholars, and others who are professionally involved in forecasting, planning, or other futureoriented activities, including education and policy making. Professional members receive all the benefits of regular membership, plus a subscription to the journal World Future Review, as well as invitations to Professional Members’ Forums, and other benefits. • Institutional Membership: The World Future Society’s Institutional Membership program offers special services for business firms, educational institutions, government agencies, associations, and other groups. Members receive all of the benefits of Professional Membership, plus copies of all books, monographs, conference proceedings, special reports, and other publications produced by the Society during the year of the membership; special discounts on bulk purchases of Society publications; assistance in locating sources of information, consultants, and speakers for conferences and meetings, getting information tailored specifically to the organization’s needs; and inclusion in the Society’s list of institutional members published on the Society’s Web site and annually in THE FUTURIST. For more information and an application, contact the Membership Secretary at Society headquarters, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814; www.wfs.org.

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

continued from page 60 We cannot know for certain whether it is possible to overcome the numerous problems we face—climate change, resource depletion, environmental destruction, and so on. One unfortunately valid interpretation of the available data is that it is already too late and that we are doomed to fail. Another is that we have a chance, however slim, to negotiate through these problems and to grow as individuals and as a species. The optimist is the one who decides that we have a chance, and continues efforts to realize a better future, even when it seems hopeless. This is necessary because the empirical data we have is often ambiguous or incomplete. If we must guess, it is surely appropriate, all things being equal, to gamble on the side of survival. We should also remain mindful of the destructive nature of cynicism, despair and anger. In Coaching (Butterworth-Heinemann, 2005), integral coach James Flaherty points out that skepticism, cynicism, and resignation may prevent personal progress. These moods, which are defined as emotional tones within which a person exists, can distort one’s interpretations of data

just as much as Pollyanna thinking. The excesses of both should be avoided in considering future s cenarios. The bottom line is that, although any kind of optimism needs to be based on the truth, there often remains a choice whether to embrace the possibility of practical change or sink into cynicism and despair. The insistence that one remain focused on positive action and not fantasy is another important caveat, so long as we do not eschew inspiring visions entirely. Visions, too, have their place. As Berger noted, the danger comes when one becomes seduced by fantasy and uses it as a substitute for practical action. If we really want a better future—as individuals, as communities, or as a species—we’re going to have to work for it. ❏

About the Author Matthew Colborn has a doctorate in biological psychology and is a freelance writer with a special interest in psychology and the future. He is currently writing a book on consciousness for publication in 2011. His previous article for THE FUTURIST was “How Attitudes Shape Our Future,” published in January-February 2007. His e‑mail address is Matt.Colborn@googlemail.com.

futurist UPDATE Your link to tomorrow’s world.

Futurist Update: News and Previews from the World Future Society is a free monthly e‑mail newsletter sent to all World Future Society members. Nonmembers are welcome to sign up too! There is no better way to keep up with the trends and ideas that are shaping our collective future — and to stay connected with the futurist community. Recent editions of Futurist Update have covered a wide range of fascinating stories, including: • An ecological research project tapping prison inmates as research assistants. • An algorithm developed to thwart cyber-graffiti and vandalism on wikis. • The rise of secular support groups for nonreligious students on U.S. campuses. • A plan to analyze the many systems at play in the Ogallala Aquifer’s future. Other regular features of Futurist Update keep you up to date with all that’s happening at the World Future Society (What’s Hot @WFS), connected with our field (News for the Futurist Community), and linked to a wide variety of useful resources available online (Click of the Month). FREE! Sign up online: www.wfs.org/futuristupdate.htm

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Future View By Matthew Colborn

Future, Fantasy, and Positive Volition When futurists choose to be optimistic, it is sometimes mistaken for mindless fantasy. But a psychologist argues that optimism is vital for effective futuring, because it allows us to face reality with the fortitude to make things better. Are futurists wrong to promote optimism? Are they selling fantasies that will be never delivered? Is optimism a dangerous mind-set that prompts a retreat into delusion? The critics mount a powerful, but superficial case. I contend that optimism remains important and necessary. STUDIOVISION / ISTOCKPHOTO Several recent books have savagely critiqued optimism or “positive thinking,” notably Barbara Ehrenreich’s Bright-Sided: How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking Has Undermined America (Metropolitan Books, 2009). Ehrenreich accuses the positive thinking industry of promoting a repressive culture and an unhealthy disengagement from reality that encourages people to cocoon themselves in rose-tinted bubbles. She even suggests that such beliefs, apparently widespread in the financial world, might have contributed to the stock market crash of 2008. Some psychological data suggest that Ehrenreich has a point. Psychologists who recently tested whether fantasies help or hinder the achievement of personal goals have identified a “False Hope Syndrome,” in which unrealistic expectations doom a project to failure. The “syndrome” occurs when a person or group unrealistically believes that a little bit of effort will achieve spectacular results. Psychologists Peter Herman and Janet Polivy suggest that many diets and fitness regimens fail for this reason. They call for a more pragmatic approach based upon realism and incremental change. Oliver James, in his book Affluenza (Vermilion, 2007), advocates positive volition while criticizing positive thinking. James asserts that it is better to act in a positive way in a given situation rather than spend one’s efforts thinking oneself into a more positive place. We need to recognize the importance of planning, persistence, and long-term approaches as opposed to quick fixes. If an insistence on mindless “positive thinking” has significant negative repercussions, then futurists need to be very careful about the kind of optimism they promote. The past literature of futurism is replete with attractive visions of futures that either never materialized 60

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January-February 2011

or were never very likely in the first place. There are many examples of this, including overly optimistic projections about space travel, claims that nuclear power would result in energy that was too cheap to meter, and more recent assurances that some future miracle technology will make fossil fuels obsolete overnight. In each case, the technology was overestimated, and social, technical, and political counter-factors were underestimated or ignored. On the other hand, futuring has never demanded that we ignore unattractive possibilities. Scenario planning typically includes worst-case and disaster scenarios as well as best-case scenarios; see Edward Cornish’s Futuring for some examples (WFS, 2004). Similarly, dystopian thinking in science fiction represents what David Brin has termed “possible failure modes” that we need to be conscious of in order to avoid them. Currently, our global problems are such that dystopian visions in some respects predominate, and some people find it difficult to envisage any positive futures at all. Futurists, too, have long recognized the importance of avoiding excessive fantasizing when trying to achieve goals. The 1950s French futurist Gaston Berger cautioned that dreaming is the opposite of planning, warning that we may end up enjoying the imaginary fruits of labor instead of actually accomplishing them. Such a warning is especially appropriate in an age where it is increasingly easy to ignore reality and retreat into virtual fantasy worlds. However, having a basically optimistic attitude remains important. The sort of optimism that works is a belief that we can change things for the better. Ehrenreich’s alternative to what she sees as vacuous “positive thinking” is that we go beyond evaluation and try to see things as they really are. There is much to be said for this approach, but it doesn’t quite go far enough. Simply seeing things as they are and nothing else is a recipe for passivity. And operating from one’s anger at injustice, another of Ehrenreich’s suggestions, is sometimes useful but can be limiting and even destructive. The point of optimism is not to blot out troubling or negative data, but to transform it in positive ways. In this century, we are faced with a number of problems that may very well doom technological civilization. continued on page 58

As Tweeted

You Know You’re a Futurist If … Recently on Twitter, a few of us were reflecting on what makes futurists special. @WorldFutureSoc You know you’re a futurist if you start accidentally putting NEXT year’s year in the date line. *smacks forehead* @jbmahaffie It’d be great to collect “you know you’re

a futurist if...” jokes, with a nod to Jeff Foxworthy, got any more?

@WorldFutureSoc If I’d had foresight, I would have

hashtagged.

@WorldFutureSoc #YKYAF You know you’re a

futurist if you look both ways before crossing a one-way street (watch out for wild cards)

@latta if you live in a large metro area, you *need* to

look both ways on a one way.

@lisadonchak In the UK, I look the wrong way first before crossing the street. Priming! @WorldFutureSoc #YKYAF You know you’re a futurist if you think AI stands for artificial intelligence, not “American Idol.” @lisadonchak #YKYAF You know you’re a futurist if you type AGI—artificial general intelligence—instead of AIG. @WorldFutureSoc #YKYAF You know you’re a futurist if you would use your time machine to travel forward (and come back to change the present, not the past). @ISOLABELLA You know you’re a futurist when you use a worm hole to commute. @lisadonchak Is this possible yet?! I’d sign up in-

stantly! ;)

@ISOLABELLA Wld I b here? @WorldFutureSoc #YKYAF You know you’re a

futurist if you ask “What’s next?” instead of “What’s new?” @lisadonchak #YKYAF if you think increased prevalence of “Internet addiction” is really just a sign of the impending tech #singularity.

DramaTweep Personae: @busynessgirl = Maria H. Andersen @ISOLABELLA = Isobel Kramen @jbmahaffie = John B. Mahaffie @kristinalford = Kristin Alford @latta = a writer, cyclist; Global IT/

HIT/Consulting

@lisadonchak = Lisa Donchak @nanofoo = Gerald Thurman @OscarMopperkont = Adriaan @ryonck = Richard Yonck @WorldFutureSoc = World Future Society (Cindy

Wagner, FUTURIST managing editor)

@lisadonchak #YKYAF when you try to click nonexistent hotlinks in your physical newspaper, book, or magazine. @WorldFutureSoc Or fast-forward a live lecture. @lisadonchak Or rewind a live radio program! @ryonck #YKYAF You know you’re a futurist if someone mentions weak signals & you don’t assume they’re talking about their cell phone plan. @busynessgirl #YKYAF You know you’re a futurist if you’re already getting annoyed with software features that don’t actually exist yet. @OscarMopperkon #YKYAF when you ask yourself so many “what if …” questions that it drives you crazy. @nanofoo #YKYAF if you believe we’ll have exa-scale computing by year 2019. @lisadonchak #YKYAF when you’re up at 6am tweeting about how #ykyaf. @WorldFutureSoc Clearly we know we’re #futurists this morning! Thx for the company. Source: The World Future Society Twitter page, http://twitter.com/World FutureSoc.

THE FUTURIST

January-February 2011

Back Issues of The Futurist November-December 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 6)

Strategies for Living a Very Long Life • 2020 Visionaries: Clay Shirky, Cory Doctorow, Philip G. Zimbardo, Helen Fisher • Tomorrow’s Interactive Television • Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and Technologies • Cultural “Stickiness” in Technological Forecasting • Special Report: Outlook 2011

September-October 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 5)

Asia Redraws the Map of Progress • 2020 Visionaries: Douglas Rushkoff, Pavlina Ilieva, Kuo Pao Lian • From Eco-Friendly to Eco-Intelligent • Wisdom Facing Forward: What It Means to Have Heightened Future Consciousness • Tried and True—Technological Transformation, from Paper to Disk to Cloud • Foresight for the World’s Youth

July-August 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 4)

Youth at Risk: A New Plan for Saving the World’s Most Precious Resource • Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis • 2020 Visionaries: Jason P. Clark, Ryan Chin • Garden Atriums: A Model for Sustainable Building • Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Forces in the Natural and Institutional Environments • The Future Then and Now: Electronic Newspapers

May-June 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 3)

The Age of the Interface • Coming: The Biggest Boom Ever! • 2020 Visionaries: Dennis M. Bushnell, Jamais Cascio, Ian Bremmer, Azar Nafisi • Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World: Economic and Social Trends and Their Impacts • Film’s Immortals: Forever Young and in 3-D

March-April 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 2)

Back Issues: THE FUTURIST has been published continuously since 1967. Back issues are available for $5.95 each plus $4.90 postage and handling for total order. Most issues for the past 10 years can be supplied. To order, use the coupon opposite, or call 1-800-989-8274 (weekdays 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time) or use secure online ordering at www.wfs.org/backissues

The Singularity’s Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario • Smart People, Dumb Decisions • 2020 Visionaries: Cory Ondrejka, Andrew Keen, Roy Speckhardt, Ayyā Gotami • Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy • Global, Mobile, Virtual, and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow • Vertical Farming: An Idea Whose Time Has Come Back

January-February 2010 (Vol. 44, No. 1)

2020 Visionaries: Andrew Hessel, Robert A. Freitas Jr., Janna Anderson, Mark Bauerlein • How to Feed 8 Billion People • The Post-Scarcity World of 2050-2075 • Deciding Our Futures: Decision Making Under Pressure; Decision Modeling; Robust Decision Making: Coping with Uncertainty; Managing Your Mind • Foresight Conquers Fear • The Dymaxion Dream Reincarnate

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