THE FUTURIST, July - August 2013 by World Future Society

Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future

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Sneak peek from WorldFuture 2013:

July-August 2013

Mapping the Future with Big Data A little-known California company is making a “Facebook for Maps” that promises to change the way we interact with our environment, predict behavior, and make decisions in the decades ahead. Page 14 And more previews from the World Future Society’s annual meeting:

New Tools for War and Peace, page 20

The Rise of Citizen Science, page 25

Cyborgs, Cinema, and Future Scenarios, page 31 Transition Engineering, page 35 Futurists: BetaLaunch 2013, page 64

PLUS: WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

The Supreme Court Takes On Gene Patents Kenya’s Youth Take Charge Dancing with the Crowds Harnessing the Power of Osmosis $5.95

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July-August 2013 Volume 47, No. 4

A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas

about the future

ARTICLES 14 Mapping the Future with Big Data By Patrick Tucker A little-known California company called Esri offers a “Facebook for Maps” that promises to change the way we interact with our environment, predict behavior, and make decisions in the decades ahead.

Citizen science. Page 25

DEPARTMENTS 2

Tomorrow in Brief

Feedback

World Trends & Forecasts: Law, Democracy, Arts, Energy

50 Consultants and Services 59 Future Active

BOOKS 53 Gore’s “Future” and the Trends Driving It A book review by Michael Lee

Despite a lack of scenario development in The Future, Al Gore offers a deft analysis of the policy implications of today’s major global driving forces.

54 Of Mice and Men, Cats and Jellyfish A book review by Rick Docksai

In Frankenstein’s Cat: Cuddling Up to Biotech’s Brave New Beasts, journalist Emily Anthes investigates the new science and ethics of physically and genetically modifying animals.

Also reviewed:

Earthmasters The Technology of Nonviolence

20 New Tools for War and Peace: Technology Game Changers An Interview with John Watts

Militaries and civilians alike should plan for technological change, says security consultant John Watts. Tools such as analytical gaming can be useful to both military and civilian planners for developing new concepts.

25 The Rise of Citizen Science By Kathleen Toerpe

From tracking the migration of songbirds to discovering new celestial bodies, amateur scientists may help fill a need for more researchers. Beyond helping “real” scientists collect data, amateurs are becoming better trained, better equipped, and better prepared to contribute to tomorrow’s breakthroughs.

31 Life Imitates Art: Cyborgs, Cinema, and Future Scenarios By Ramona Pringle

the detrimental social and environmental impacts of industrialization.

42 Anticipatory Governance: Winning the Future By Leon S. Fuerth with Evan M. H. Faber

64 Visions: 10 Future-Changing Inventions Ready to Launch By Patrick Tucker

Futurists: BetaLaunch, the World Future Society’s third annual innovation competition, will allow WorldFuture 2013 attendees to get a glimpse of the companies, start-ups, and inventions that are changing the future. Here are the creators we’re honoring at F:BL this year.

From utopian ideals to dystopian nightmares, the narratives we create about ourselves color our visions of our futures.

35 Transition Engineering: Planning and Building the Sustainable World By Susan Krumdieck

On the way to building the sustainable world, transition engineers respond to risks, not disasters. Transition engineering will emerge as the way by which society reduces both fossil fuel use and

Launching 3DPOV. Page 64

COVER ILLUSTRATION: © SERGEY NIVENS / BIGSTOCK

© 2013 World Future Society. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part without written permission is prohibited. THE FUTURIST is a registered trademark of the World Future Society. Printed in the U.S.A. THE FUTURIST (ISSN 0016-3317) is published bimonthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Included with membership in the World Future Society (dues: $79 per year for individuals; $20 for full-time students under age 25). Subscriptions for libraries and other institutions are $89 annually. Periodicals postage paid at Bethesda, Maryland, and additional mailing offices. • POSTMASTER: Send address changes to THE FUTURIST, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. • OWNERSHIP: THE FUTURIST is owned exclusively by the World Future Society, a nonpartisan educational and scientific organization incorporated in the District of Columbia and recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a nonprofit taxexempt organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code. • CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Write or call Membership Department at the Society. 1-800-989-8274.

Tomorrow

in brief

Rocketing to Mars with Fusion Power Space exploration is limited to how much fuel our vehicles can bring with them, and fuel weighs too much to get us very far. Now, scientists at the University of Washington believe they have a solution for harnessing the massive power of nuclear fusion. At the university’s Plasma Dynamics Lab, the team devised a type of plasma encased in its own magnetic field. The magnetic field causes metal rings around the plasma to implode and converge to create a shell that ignites the fusion reaction. “We hope we can interest the world with the fact that fusion isn’t always 40 years away and doesn’t always cost $2 billion,” says lead researcher John Slough, research associate professor of aeronautics and astronautics. Source: University of Washington, www.washington.edu.

IMAGES: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, MSNW

Fusion-fueled rockets could significantly reduce the potential time and cost of sending humans to Mars.

You soon won’t have to choose between running and reading: A new motion-sensing monitor will let you do both at once. The ReadingMate, developed by Purdue University industrial engineer Ji Soo Yi and team, counteracts the head bobbing motion of a runner on a treadmill by tracking the relative location of the user’s eyes and adjusting the position of text on the monitor. “Our eyes can accommodate vibration to a certain degree,” according to Yi. “There are compensatory reflex mechanisms that tend to stabilize the head and eyes to maintain gaze and head position.” Reading-

Mate is based on an algorithm that accounts for this reflex to correctly position the text. Source: Purdue University, www.purdue.edu. MARK SIMONS / PURDUE UNIVERSITY

Bum chul Kwon, industrial engineering doctoral candidate at Purdue University, demonstrates ReadingMate, a monitor that to appears to hold text still by counteracting the bobbing motion of a runner’s head.

Megatrend Promises a Wealthier Future

The fusion-driven-rocket test chamber at the University of Washington Plasma Dynamics Lab. PHOTOS: MATTHEW CHUMCHAL

Spiders living along shorelines offer early clues to toxic mercury levels in aquatic ecosystems.

Spiders Help Predict Mercury Levels in Lakes Mercury is toxic to all living creatures, so it is crucial to detect it as early in an ecosystem’s food chain as possible. In lakes and other bodies of water, fish are typically the first place researchers look to measure levels of mercury pollution. Researchers led by Matt Chumchal, Texas Christian University assistant professor of biology, are now looking to monitor mercury in aquatic insects, such as midges and spiders, which threaten the birds that feed on them. “The levels of mercury in spiders and midges were

ReadingMate: A Monitor in Motion

strongly correlated in our study ponds,” said Chumchal in a press release. “This is an important finding because it means that scientists and environmental managers can use spiders to efficiently collect data on mercury levels in water bodies with and without fish.” Source: “Effects of Fish on Emergent Insect-Mediated Flux of Methyl Mercury across a Gradient of Contamination” by Brent N. Tweedy, Matthew M. Chumchal, et al., Environmental Science & Technology (February 5, 2013), American Chemical Society.

Incomes in the United States have tripled in the last three generations, and standards of living are rising in poor countries around the world. These two big trends bode well for future generations, according to macroeconomist Charles Jones of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. The engine behind this growth is not just new inventions, but innovative ideas. “People produce ideas, and ideas lead to economic growth no matter where they occur,” says Jones, citing

work by economist Paul Romer. Potential shocks ahead include inflation in the United States and continuation of the Euro crisis, but over the long term, Jones is optimistic: “The overwhelming fact of economic history for the last 150 years is, on average, incomes were growing at 2% a year, and that growth is inexorable. As bad as the Great Depression was, it was temporary.” Source: Stanford Graduate School of Business, www.gsb.stanford.edu.

WordBuzz: Agroeco Agroeco describes the complex interaction of issues in agriculture. It is both an economic sector and an ecological construct; it is also a lifestyle (farming). Economic policy may have a growing role in promoting sustainable food production, but those who hold the purse strings need to be persuaded on agroeco’s profitability, observes Danielle Nierenberg, co-founder of FoodTank: The Food Think Tank (www.FoodTank.org). As tweeted: @RockefellerFdn: Q3: What can be done to motivate food producers and sellers to work toward a healthier food

system? #RF100 @DaniNierenberg: A3: Not just food producers/sellers who need to be motivated, but research institutions and funders/donors #RF100 @Rockefeller Fdn: How might we motivate other stakeholders? #rf100 @DaniNierenberg: Need to show impact to funders—on env, on food sec, on incomes to prove that more agroeco solutions work #RF100. @MarzenaZukowska: “Agroeco” is a fantastic term. Profits will come from the cross-sector solutions #RF100 #nutrients4all

About

this

Issue

A Publication of the World Future Society

Editorial Staff Edward Cornish Founding Editor

Cynthia G. Wagner Editor

Patrick Tucker Deputy Editor

Rick Docksai Associate Editor

Lane Jennings Research Director

Lisa Mathias Art Director

Contributing Editors Clement Bezold, Government Tsvi Bisk, Strategic Thinking Irving H. Buchen, Training Peter Eder, Marketing and Communications Thomas Frey, Innovation Joyce Gioia, Workforce/Workplace Jay Herson, Futurist Community Barbara Marx Hubbard, Images of Man Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting Matt Novak, Historical Futures Joseph N. Pelton, Telecommunications Arthur B. Shostak, Utopian Thought David P. Snyder, Lifestyles Gene Stephens, Criminal Justice Timothy Willard, Biofutures Richard Yonck, Computing and AI

Contact Us Letters to the Editor: letters@wfs.org Subscription/Address Change: info@wfs.org Advertising: jcornish@wfs.org Submissions/Queries: cwagner@wfs.org Permission/Reprints: jcornish@wfs.org Back Issues/Bulk Copies: jcornish@wfs.org Press/Media Inquiries: ptucker@wfs.org Partnerships/Affiliations: tmack@wfs.org Conference Inquiries: swarner@wfs.org Anything Else: info@wfs.org THE FUTURIST World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Hours: 9 a.m.–5 p.m. eastern time, weekdays except U.S. holidays Telephone: 301-656-8274 or 800-989-8274 Fax: 301-951-0394 www.wfs.org/futurist

Preview of Things to Come in July! A WorldFuture Sneak Peek For this issue of THE FUTURIST, we invited several of our 2013 conference participants to offer us a preview of their forthcoming presentations at WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon. • In “Mapping the Future with Big Data,” FUTURIST deputy editor Patrick Tucker shows how data analysis will change our decision-making process in the decades ahead. He argues that big data brings us closer to a truly predictable future. See page 14. • In “New Tools for War and Peace: Technology Game Changers,” FUTURIST associate editor Rick Docksai interviews national security consultant John Watts of the Noetic Corporation. He discusses the potential of aerial drones, nanobot swarms, analytic gaming, and other developments to alter the security landscape in the years ahead. See page 20. • In “The Rise of Citizen Science,” social and cultural historian Kathleen Toerpe shows how a wide range of amateur science lovers have turned their hobbies into significant contributions in data collection, analysis, and research breakthroughs. See page 25. • In “Life Imitates Art: Cyborgs, Cinema, and Future Scenarios,” media scholar and multiplatform producer Ramona Pringle describes on how our visions of the future both reflect and are reflected by the scenarios we create in films, games, and other media. See page 31. • In “Transition Engineering: Planning and Building the Sustainable World,” Susan Krumdieck, an associate professor of mechanical engineering, describes how the transition to a sustainable world will actually be planned and built; it starts, she says, with assessing potential risks and responding to them before they become crises. See page 35. • In the Visions essay, “10 Future-Changing Inventions Ready to Launch,” Patrick Tucker introduces the innovations that will be showcased during the third annual Futurists: BetaLaunch expo, which will be a part of the welcoming reception at WorldFuture 2013. See page 64. To learn more about the two-and-a-half-day conference, which will offer more than 60 fascinating sessions, see pages 57-58, or visit us online www.wfs.org/WorldFuture_2013_Exploring_the_ Next_Horizon. —Cynthia G. Wagner, Editor cwagner@wfs.org

Feedback Selected reactions and comments on the March-April 2013 issue Re: “How to Make a Mind” by Ray Kurzweil Grenae Thompson (@DGGT, via Twitter): Future beings with bigger brains & bigger heads might be obsolete if extra Neocortex is in the cloud. Ashok Matta

(via Facebook): A human brain trains in a big spectrum of environment interactions. We see a lot of people and we go a lot of places. We watch a lot of media. These interactions mold the human brain along with feedback. A nonbiological brain needs to know how to and when to and what to react. Nico van Klaveren (via LinkedIn): Centuries ago people thought that a machine could mimic a human. It did not work. Ray Kurzweil believes that a future computer can do this. I believe he is right. In his book How to Create a Mind he describes the workings of the human brain and how it evolved. He has shown that already a computer can mimic much of a human brain’s workings. But, will that simulated brain have a personality, a “soul”? Assuming that personality results from a normal development of the brain it can be expected to happen the same way in an artificial brain. It is an exciting AND scary idea. James Davis (via LinkedIn): What Kurzweil describes is the next step in human evolution. Who has access (usually the wealthy) and who doesn’t. We need to deal with the ethical issues before this genie gets set loose. We could easily develop a sub-species of humans who don’t have access to this universal brain. Re: “How Innovation Could Save the Planet” by Ramez Naam FutureFeed (@futurefeed, via

Twitter): good piece if a bit heavy on the #technofix ideology ;) Janos Usfor (via Facebook): My favorite article in this issue. Len Rosen (via LinkedIn): There is no better time in the history of humanity for us to develop a culture of global innovation. We are tied together by the Internet and communications technology that makes access to knowledge and the sharing of it ubiquitous. Right now almost 3 billion of us are interconnected. In a few more years that number will grow by another 2 billion. If we cannot find answers to the challenges we face in a world of collective wisdom and knowledge sharing it will be most surprising. An observation about the term “peak oil.” Peak oil is a misnomer. We have yet to reach that so-called peak, because we continue to discover new sources of fossil fuel. So let’s dispense with that 1970s jargon and talk about moving away from fossil fuel dependency as the critical challenge. Because at the current rate of consumption and what is anticipated from a growing global population through the mid-century, we won’t run out of the oil we know exists for several hundred more years. [Ed. note: Len Rosen’s 21st Century Tech Blog www.21stcentech .com also appears on the Futurist Blog at wfs.org.] Re: “Five Economies That Work: Global Success Stories” by Rick Docksai Lawrence C. McSwain (via Facebook): This month’s magazine is excellent. One of the top articles is about how five countries have improved their economies. Hamed Ben Rebah (via LinkedIn): Excellent article. We have to look at why it works for these, and is it sustainable? People appropriation is the key. For Israel, that’s a long-trend, proactive choice. For Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, the wealthy generate sustainability until the very bad d istribution. For

Russia, however, the regime dirigisme will remain the model driver for a long time. thinkfuture (via WFS.org): What an incredibly biased article. The only thing that excessive government spending does is artificially prop up a failing economy. Real growth comes from people having enough money in their pockets to be able to spend. That money comes from work, not theft from the more productive members of society. … It has been proven time and time again that lower taxes, spending, and regulation will drive an economy in the positive direction faster than any other strategy. It’s proven, basic economics. 1606782 (via WFS.org, in reply to thinkfuture ): Unfortunately, your b iased “libertarian” response assumes a fair and balanced market and society where regulations are unnecessary and all market participants can be counted on to not rob, pillage, and plunder in the name of sheer greed and profit. … As far as low taxes/low spending versus high taxes/high spending, it’s a wash. If I tax you nothing but spend nothing on providing services and you are forced to spend to provide your own services, how does that give you discretionary income to “grow” the economy any better than taxing at a higher rate, and buying/providing such services for them? thinkfree (via WFS.org, in reply to 1606782 ): And your biased “social engineering” response is little more than a gut reaction to anything free market. It assumes the government will look out for the good of the nation, not pander to special interests that got them elected. … Too many of the regulations we see are kneejerk reactions to some real (or perceived) wrongdoing. Often those regulations have significant unforeseen consequences, and do more harm than good. The proper role of government is to level the playing field for the market, not drive the economy. Keep the market free, and continued on page 60

Officers

Staff

President: Timothy C. Mack

Director of Communications: Patrick Tucker

Treasurer: Carol D. Rieg

Business and Advertising Manager: Jeff Cornish

Secretary: Kenneth W. Harris

Meeting Administrator: Sarah Warner

Directors Bob Chernow (vice chairman) CEO, The Tellier Foundation

Edward Cornish founder and former president, World Future Society

Nancy Donovan senior analyst, U.S. Government Accountability Office

Joyce Gioia president and CEO, The Herman Group

John Gottsman president, The Clarity Group

Kenneth W. Harris chairman, The Consilience Group LLC

Kenneth W. Hunter (chairman) senior fellow, Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

Timothy C. Mack president, World Future Society

Eric Meade senior futurist and vice president, Institute for Alternative Futures

Raj Bawa

Graham May

president, Bawa Biotechnology Consulting, and

principal lecturer in futures research,

adjunct professor, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Leeds Metropolitan University, U.K.

Clement Bezold

Michael Michaelis

chairman and senior futurist,

president, Partners In Enterprise

Institute for Alternative Futures

Julio Millán

Arnold Brown

president, Banco de Tecnologias, and

chairman, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

chairman, Grupo Coraza, Mexico

Adolfo Castilla

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

economist, communications professor, Madrid

visiting senior research fellow, ISEAS, Singapore

Marvin J. Cetron

John Naisbitt

president, Forecasting International Ltd.

trend analyst and author

Hugues de Jouvenel

Burt Nanus

executive director, Association

author and professor emeritus of management,

Internationale Futuribles

University of Southern California

Yehezkel Dror

Joseph N. Pelton

professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

founder and vice chairman,

Esther Franklin

Arthur C. Clarke Foundation

executive vice president and director of cultural

Timothy M. Persons

identities, Starcom MediaVest Group

chief scientist, U.S. Government Accountability Office

William E. Halal

John L. Petersen

professor of management science and

president, The Arlington Institute

Mylena Pierremont

director of Emerging Technologies Project,

president, Ming Pai Consulting BV

George Washington University

Carol D. Rieg

Peter Hayward

corporate foundation officer, Bentley Systems Inc.

program director, Strategic Foresight Program,

Les Wallace

Swinburne University of Technology, Australia

president, Signature Resources Inc.

Barbara Marx Hubbard

Jared Weiner

president, The Foundation for Conscious Evolution

vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

Sohail Inayatullah

Global Advisory Council Stephen Aguilar-Millan

professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan

Zhouying Jin president, Beijing Academy of Soft Technology

European Futures Observatory

Sandra L. Postel director, Global Water Policy Project

Francis Rabuck director, Technology Research, Bentley Systems Inc.

Paul Saffo managing director of foresight, Discern Analytics

Robert Salmon former vice president, L’Oreal Corporation, Paris

Maurice F. Strong secretary general, U.N. Conference on Environment and Development

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

Raja Ikram Azam

professor emerita, Faculty of Social Sciences,

honorary chairman, Pakistan Futuristics Foundation

Gregorian University, Rome

Alvin Toffler author

Heidi Toffler author

The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific association dedicated to promoting a better understanding of the trends shaping our future. Founded in 1966, the Society serves as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future; it takes no stand on what the future will or should be like. The Society’s publications, conferences, and other activities are open to all individuals and institutions around the world. For more information on membership programs, contact Society headquarters Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time. 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone: 1-301-656-8274, Toll free: 1-800-989-8274, Fax: 1-301-951-0394 Web site: www.wfs.org • E-mail: info@wfs.org

World Trends & Forecasts Law • Democracy • Arts • Energy

Law / Governance

The U.S. Supreme Court Takes On Gene Patents Is your genetic information an invention or a discovery? And what difference will that make?

By Randall Mayes When you think of technology—lifesaving drugs, cars, electronics, etc.—Japan, western Europe, and the United States come to mind. These highly developed regions of the world have public–private infrastructures that include government financial and intellectual property support, biotech hubs, and infusions of venture capital. These infrastructures are a win-win situation for inventors and the public. In the United States, a diverse group of citizens have questioned this infrastructure, specifically the legality of gene patents. On April 15, the U.S. Supreme Court began hearing arguments on this topic. The case, Association of Molecular Pathology, et al. v. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, began in 2009 when the American Civil Liberties Union sued Myriad Genetics and the USPTO over patents from the 1990s on two genes, BRCA1 and BRCA2. Patients with specific mutations of these genes have increased rates of breast and ovarian cancer. The Issues In the case so far, the Federal Circuit Court specializing in biotechnology upheld the patents. Then the U.S. Supreme Court, which initially rejected the case and remanded it back to the Federal Appeals Court, also upheld the patents. In the hearings, the plaintiffs made unsuccessful arguments based on misperceptions of what exactly a gene patent is and what is actually patented. The plaintiffs claim that the ownership of genes is immoral. However, in patent law, gene patents do not

convey ownership of a gene; rather, ownership of patents are a right guaranteed by the Constitution that temporarily excludes rival companies from receiving financial rewards without a licensing agreement. Furthermore, the Thirteenth Amendment, which abolished slavery, prohibits owning human genes. The plaintiffs also claim that genes, which are products of nature, are a discovery, not an invention. The courts reason that everything is a product of nature, but is not always natural. Inventors receive patent protection on wood derived from ash trees carved into the shape of baseball bats. As with lifesaving drugs, gene patents are on a molecule, not genetic code. With the discovery of genetic engineering, inventors were able to receive patent protection on synthesized forms of naturally occurring insulin and adrenaline used as drugs. The plaintiffs further claim that gene patents undermine the free exchange of information, and thereby prevent or delay potential medical discoveries. However, studies, including two by the National Academy of Sciences, have not supported this claim. In contrast, the studies reveal that researchers have managed to adopt solutions or work around patents through licensing, going offshore, using public data, and legal action. Myriad Genetics subsequently developed a screening test for BRCA mutations that is one of the few success stories in personalized medicine, a once hopeful field that is currently experiencing a bubble. The second major dispute of the lawsuit alleges that, although covered by health insurance, Myriad’s $3,000 screening test for BRCA mutations is too expensive and restricts access to medical care. However, a Duke University study found that the BRCA screening test is not particularly costly

ARCHITECT OF THE CAPITOL

relative to other tests; rather, systemic transaction costs that exist within the medical industry are responsible for high medical costs. Myriad Genetics has temporary exclusive rights on the screening test, which prevents competition that could potentially lead to better service and lower pricing. In the event that exclusive rights do not serve the public’s best interest, under the Bayh-Dole Act a federal agency has the right to march in and force a recipient of a federal grant to nonexclusively license patented technology allowing market mechanisms to work. However, in this case the government has chosen not to exercise this right. Alternative Scenarios In the absence of patents, one alternative scenario is trade secrets. Louis Pasteur was unable to obtain patents on his vaccines, so he had a monopoly indefinitely. The Pasteur Institute was under no obligation to reveal its vaccine to the public after a stated period of time. In contrast, a patent is a trade-off assuring the public receives the benefits in exchange for the temporary exclusive rights. Another scenario that can occur is that researchers do not pursue medical applications due to the lack of incentives. In 1928, Alexander Fleming accidentally discovered penicillin, but did not file for a patent or pursue drug development. The antibacterial properties produced by molds in penicillin did not become commercially available until 1941 after the U.S. government sponsored research for mass production to treat infections on wounded soldiers during World War II. At the end of the 1970s federal agencies held roughly 28,000 patents, but had licensed fewer than 5% of them, according to Lila Feisee of the Biotechnology Industry Organization. In order to create a more efficient infrastructure, Congress intervened by passing the BayhDole Act (1980) requiring researchers receiving federal funding to patent and commercialize important discoveries. What the future holds for gene patents is unclear. If the Supreme Court invalidates Myriad Genetics’ patents, which ironically are set to expire in 2015, this could invalidate other biotechnology patents. Since Myriad’s gene patents are on molecules, threedimensional chemicals, not genetic code as many people assume, this could overturn Parke-Davis v. H.K. Mulford (1911), which upheld the patent on synthesized adrenaline and set a precedent for the patents on other

synthesized molecules, including insulin, vitamin B12, and EPO. Currently, biotech companies will continue sequencing whole human genomes, which include Myriad’s patented BRCA genes, without legal issues. If the Supreme Court upholds Myriad’s patents, biotech companies will also have an incentive to discover disease related genes and develop the corresponding diagnostic tests. However, New York Appeals Court Judge Alan Lourie stated in his decision, “The Supreme Court has repeatedly stated that changes to longstanding practice should come from Congress, not the courts.” So, theoretically this saga could continue creating regulatory uncertainty for investors and inventors in personalized medicine. Randall Mayes is a policy analyst focusing on the future of the energy and biotechnology sectors. He is the author Revolutions: Paving the Way for the Bioeconomy (Logo Press, 2012).

www.wfs.org

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THE FUTURIST

July-August 2013

World Trends & Forecasts courage violence, encourage civic activism, and provide young people with training and resources to start new businesses and nonprofits. Now in its fifth year, the organization boasts a membership of nearly one million youth, with 20,000 registered bunges throughThe million-strong Yes Youth Can movement pushes for out 25 counties. peace, democracy, and job creation. Its size alone is noteworthy. No single-country youth program that USAID ever started has matched it. Yes Elections free of violence—this seemed out of reach Youth Can has another claim to fame, however: The orto many Kenyans in 2008. The losing parties in that ganization is now led entirely by youth. Once USAID year’s elections instigated gangs of unemployed youth and Mercy Corps got Yes Youth Can off the ground, to go on looting and assaulting sprees, killing 1,500 they handed over ownership and management comKenyans and displacing thousands more. But in March pletely to the young Kenyans. The youth now run the 2013, another election took place, this time with nearmovement themselves through an overarching govern total peace. Activists in Kenya and outside it credit ance structure, the National Youth Bunge Association, many factors for the turnaround, but one organization, to which all of the bunges belong. a young people’s movement called Yes Youth Can, re“The U.S. government came up with the program, ceives particular praise. and then the young people took it up. And now they Yes Youth Can was co-founded in 2008 by Kenyan have their own structures and are setting it up on their volunteers working under the aegis of the U.S. Agency own,” says Duncan Ogaro Mikae, the National Youth for International Development (USAID) and the interBunge Association’s national organizing secretary. national development organization Mercy Corps. The Every bunge elects its own members, and the memgroup brings Kenyan teens and young adults together bers spearhead community-building ventures within into village-level “bunges”—youth councils—that distheir own communities. Collectively, all the bunges elect the members of county-level bunges and a ANDREA LONG / MERCY CORPS supreme national bunge body. The local bunges have founded job-training centers and raised and dispersed microcredit funds for young people to start n e w p ro j e c t s , s u c h a s greenhouses, brick production, and farm cooperatives. They couple these funds disbursements, which range from $100 to $500 apiece, with classes in financial and business management. “What we’re doing differently [from other youthcentered programs] is we’re giving youth a platform to come up with their own objectives, with their own platforms for addressing the challenges that their vilYoung people text-message to a designated event phone number to gain admission to the Tuko Rada lage faces,” says Mikae. festival, a National Youth Bunge Association-organized celebration of peace and nonviolence. The A USAID grant provided bunges, or youth associations, worked nonstop at the local, county, and national levels in the months the start-up capital for the leading up to Kenya’s March 2013 presidential election to engage youth in the political process, get them all registered to vote, and defuse any tensions that might lead to outbreaks of political violence. bunges’ ventures. Since

Democracy | Governance

Kenya’s Youth Take Charge

THE FUTURIST

July-August 2013

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then, however, many bunges founded their own Village There are “young people out there who are comSavings and Loan Associations (VSLAs), by which they plaining that there are no jobs,” says Makini. But “incould create their own continuous funding streams. stead of waiting for the government to create them, Mercy Corps is now working with county youth through the training they receive, the youth will learn boards—the county-level bunges—to organize youthself-reliance. They will learn how, by initiating incomeowned and youth-managed Savings and Credit Cooperatives to keep revenues flowing at the regional levels. Mercy Corps and the bunges look forward to deriving their first capital from these new cooperatives later this year, according to Rebecca Wolfe, a Mercy Corps senior youth and peace-building advisor who worked closely on Yes Youth Can. “We designed the program with an —Rafael Reif, President of MIT eye to creating a ‘tipping point’ or a larger social movement. We wanted young people in other parts of the country to see what’s possible, and start doing it themselves,” says Wolfe. James Makini Makini credits much of his own career success to Yes Youth Can. Right after graduating from the University of Nairobi with a bachelor’s degree in commerce, he enrolled in Yes Youth Can–sponsored training courses in financial reporting and regulations. These courses gave him practical knowhow that, he says, made it much easier for him to subsequently co-found the Innovation Empowerment Programme, a nonprofit that trains young people to start businesses and then offers them microloans. The organization is now a very successful Yes Youth Can partner. “The skills that those classes taught are helpful in that we do a lot in terms of reporting and accounting for the funds that we received from Yes Youth Can,” Makini says. He also served as a member of Yes Youth Can’s Nyanza bunge. Makini’s organization oversees Yes The bold futurist Ray Kurzweil finds limitless potential in reverseYouth Can microloan initiatives of its own; the One Hen Campaign, for exengineering the human brain to understand precisely how it works and ample, gives young people one hen and using that knowledge to create even more intelligent machines. a cage each, with the directive to care for the hens so that they will lay eggs that the youths can sell. Many recipients AvAilAble now wherever books Are sold • kurzweilAi.net go on to form thriving poultry cooperaVIKING A member of Penguin Group (USA) | penguin.com tives that generate full-time income.

“A visionary work that is also accessible and entertaining.”

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World Trends & Forecasts PHOTOS: ROBIN WYATT / MERCY CORPS

Participants in a Soba bunge gathering discuss issues that affect their community and how they can work together to create solutions.

generating activities, they can lift themselves to higher socioeconomic and political levels.” Creating employment opportunities for youth is important not just for economic reasons, but for political stability reasons, as well, Makini adds. Youth who have jobs will be more inclined to help build up their surrounding communities and less likely to take part in criminal activity or violence, such as that which swept over Kenya after the 2008 elections. “In 2008, when we had the election rioting, most of the youth were idle. They didn’t have anything to do. They didn’t have anything economic to apply themselves to. But after the formation of the Yes Youth Can project, most of them were encouraged to form groups and to organize income-generating opportunities within their very villages,” he says. Makini’s bunge and others further encouraged peaceful political action by finding youth who were not yet registered to vote and then having the government issue them voter ID cards. Many bunges also organize “peace exchange” programs that train young people to be community organizers for peace. And in the three months leading up to the 2013 elections, bunges watched over their districts and reported, via mobile phones, any incidents or developments that they thought might give rise to violence. In this way, they provided local and national government officials with critical early-warning and early-response capabilities to avert future bloodshed. “In the event of anything, we were preparing the young people and communities for how to respond to violence or any negative influence by politicians,” says Mikae. Mobile phones and digital media in general play a very large role in Yes Youth Can’s activities, as noted by

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Crowds of youth gathered for the Tuko Rada Festival, among the activities that the National Youth Bunge Association rolled out over the months leading up to the March 2013 presidential election. Bunge efforts centered on registering more young people to vote, engaging youth in politics, and dissuading any outbreaks of political violence. Their efforts paid off: This election was not only virtually violence-free, but it also had the largest youth turnout in Kenya’s history.

Elliott Wilkes, technology advisor for Mercy Corps– Kenya. He says that, while fiber-optic networks are still sparse, more than 70% of the country has mobile-phone subscriptions. Mercy Corps and partners adapted Facebook and Twitter’s coding so that subscribers in Kenya could post directly to the sites via a free SMS shortcode. The result was 380,000 Kenyans viewing Yes Youth Can’s Facebook page within the three days encompassing the election. Some areas of the country are so remote that even mobile connectivity is scarce. In these places, though, young people were committed enough to travel to cities on repeated bases so that they could access Yes Youth Can mobile messages at their downtown mobile hotspots. “We cater our content and outreach to the technologies in hand, available and ubiquitous across our target demographic: SMS, USSD, 3G-accessible sites, and mobile sites,” says Wilkes. The outreach efforts appear to have paid off. The election, which took place March 4, 2013, was largely violence-free, and it had the largest youth turnout in Kenya’s history. Makini notes these facts with pride, along with this one: In his county, Nyamira, several Yes Youth Can members ran for county council seats and won. Yes Youth Can “has been an eye-opener for the majority of us youths,” Makini says. “Youths in the Yes Youth Can Project realized that they are leaders of today, not tomorrow.”

The movement may soon sprout in more countries. Wolfe says that Mercy Corps is organizing a new branch in Zimbabwe, while the international development nonprofit Youth for Technology Foundation has begun implementing Yes Youth Can in Nigeria and is considering it for other parts of Africa, too. According to Wolfe, Yes Youth Can’s youth-led organization and effective use of social media provide a model that other youth movements elsewhere could study and try to emulate. “One of the things Mercy Corps is doing is finding ways to use this approach in other settings,” she says. “Young people want to make change in their countries. There is a palpable feeling. It’s about directing that energy, and understanding what aspects are ready to be ‘youth-led’ from day 1, and where youth need more mentorship and support.” —Rick Docksai Sources: James Makini Makini, Innovation Empowerment Programme, www.iepkenya.org. Duncan Ogaro Mikae, National Youth Bunge Association, www.nybakenya.org. Elliott Wilkes and Rebecca Wolfe, Mercy Corps, www.mercycorps.org.

Arts | Humanity

Dancing with the Crowds An audience-engagement idea taken to the next step leads to a crowdsourced ballet. Theater and dance professionals are often in the vanguard for using new technologies to create and stage performance experiences. Now they are also increasingly embracing social technology to engage audiences, such as offering discounted tickets, media downloads, and opportunities to provide citizen reviews on Facebook. One ballet company is taking this pas de deux with their audience a step—rather, a grand jeté—further by crowdsourcing ideas for the creation of the ballet itself. Earlier this year, California-based company Diablo Ballet performed Flight of the Dodo, a dance created from suggestions that had been tweeted by the audience. Among ideas selected to challenge the choreographer: • “The story of the Dodo Bird, birds who can’t fly and became extinct.” • “Feel of the dance work: Deliberately ironic.” • “Include at least one moment that you hope the audience will find hideously ugly… another evoking awesome beauty… investigate their similarities and differences.”

• “Setting: Insane asylum.” • “Initiate movement from shoulder blades.” • “The color turquoise.” Even the score used—Vivaldi’s Concerto for Two Cellos in G Minor—was decided by an online vote. The dance that resulted was performed for a live audience and recorded for Web viewing, earning its title as the first “Web Ballet.” The creative-crowdsourcing strategy originated from Diablo Ballet marketing director Dan Meagher, who encouraged audience members to tweet during a 2012 performance by the company; the idea evolved into directly soliciting input from the audience and then put into the hands of choreographer Robert Dekkers, who also performed in the resulting piece. After just two weeks of planning and rehearsal, Flight of the Dodo was launched. The question of what a crowdsourced ballet means for artistic evolution and integrity remains hanging in the air like Ali the Slave in Le Corsaire: Does the future of art now require a committee, a consensus from the cloud? In performance arts such as theater and dance, teamwork is always involved, from writer to director to actor, from choreographer to dancer to set and costume designers. If art is a communication between artist and audience, will involving the audience as a more active participant dilute the creative vision, or keep the interactive dynamic of art alive? “I’m hoping that crowdsourcing will continue to impact individuals through sparking an interest in the art form and feeling as though they have a true part in artistic expression,” says Diablo Ballet artistic director Lauren Jones. The California project could be viewed as an early indicator of things to come, or a case study; it even caught the attention of two Swedish undergraduate students, Caroline Arkenson and Anna Maria Stipic of KTH Royal Institute of Technology, who focused their thesis on the integration of art and technology that the “Web dance” represents. They chose to examine “how social media—in this case Twitter—can be used as a tool to create performing art.” They sent a questionnaire to the Twitter users from around the world who sent Diablo Ballet a total of 132 suggestions, asking why they participated and what they thought about the creative process. The Internet-created dance may be simply an experiment in engagement or a totally new artistic path. Perhaps it is both. But for now, it is one way that the arts might evolve to avoid the dodo’s fate: “You will see more use for social media in the arts because you must use it to survive now,” Meagher told Angela Swartz, writer for the San Mateo Patch. “It’s ab-

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World Trends & Forecasts solutely free and it’s a fabulous way to reach out and get the right people engaged with us.” —Cynthia G. Wagner Sources: Diablo Ballet, www.diabloballet.org. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden, www.kth.se. “Crowd-Sourced Ballet Comes to Foster City,” Angela Swartz, San Mateo Patch (April 8, 2013).

Energy | Sci/Tech

Harnessing the Power Of Osmosis A promising new energy source requires only freshwater, salt water, and the right membrane. Researchers in Europe are developing a process for generating renewable energy just by mixing salt water and freshwater. Osmotic power, as it is called, creates electricity when quantities of salt water are brought into contact with freshwater. According to Statkraft, a renewable-energy firm that is developing osmotic power facilities, the process derives from the natural phenomenon of osmosis, by which water passes through semipermeable layers of organic tissue such as plant leaves. It works like this: Volumes of salt water and freshwater are directed into

Statkraft’s osmotic power plant in Tofte, Norway.

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different chambers that are separated by a semipermeable membrane. As the two waters come into contact, the salt molecules exert a pull on the freshwater molecules from across the membrane. Pressure builds, and the membrane channels this pressure toward a turbine. The turbine spins and creates electricity. A small Statkraft-built osmotic power station has been running since autumn 2009 in the Norwegian city of Tofte. Statkraft is now working with Israeli watertechnology firm IDE Technologies to build a new larger-scale facility that will churn out 1-2 MW of osmotic power. The new station will be based in the fjord-adjacent community of Sunndalsøra, where an existing power plant’s outlet tunnel provides a continuing stream of freshwater while the nearby fjord churns strong saltwater currents. Norwegian authorities approved a construction permit in March, so a completed facility could be operational by late 2015. The company has been testing and refining the technology over the last three years at the Tofte station. The membranes that the station is now using are 10 times as efficient as the ones it was using when it debuted in 2009, according to Stein Erik Skilhagen, Statkraft’s head of osmotic power. “We see that the development of the technology is accelerating and that an industry is emerging,” says Skilhagen. The new Sunndalsøra power station will be the first of its kind in the world. No large-scale osmotic power currently exists. The idea, however, is the subject of discussions and research in many locales. Canada’s Hydro-Québec charted 12 MW of potential osmotic power generation along northeast Canadian waterways. In the United States, NASA is exploring portable osSTATKRAFT motic power systems that could be used to treat wastewater aboard space stations. Japan’s Tokyo Institute of Technology opened an Osmotic Power Research Centre in 2010. Akihiko Tanioka, the Research Centre’s head, cites the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that wrecked the Fukushima nuclear power plant as all the more reason to pursue an osmotic solution: Japan’s river currents could enable enough osmotic electricity generation to replace five or six nuclear reactors, he estimates. Technology is going to have to improve before any of these osmotic ambitions can reach fruition, cautions Norway’s Center for Renewable Energy (SFFE). While it sees great global potential—it calculates that worldwide development of osmotic facilities could generate around 1,370 terawatts of electricity a year,

enough to meet the electricity needs of 520 million people—it does not consider the present-day membranes to be efficient enough. “One of the major obstacles to the completion of a full-scale osmotic power plant has been the lack of a membrane designed specifically for the process. Because current osmotic membranes are not optimized for the osmotic power process, the design of efficient membranes specifically for this process is essential for the advancement of this technology,” reads an SFFE statement. Better membranes are on the way, though. French researchers led by Lydéric Boquet and Alessandro Siria, both from the University of Lyon, built nanotube membranes out of boron nitride and found them to be a thousand times more efficient than an average osmotic membrane. According to Boquet, boron nitride has a unique surface structure that creates stronger electrical charges. “The [boron nitride] nanotubes constitute ideal pores, in that they are tubes with a perfect crystallographic structure. They don’t exhibit any uneven or erratic patterns of charge—found in other compounds— that might ruin the electricity conversion,” he says. The researchers first obtained a flat, electrically insulating membrane and pierced one small hole into it. Then they inserted a boron nitride nanotube, only a few dozen nanometers in length, through this hole. The nanotube has a strong negative surface charge that attracts the cations—positively charged atoms—within the salt water. Boquet and his colleagues estimate that, with further adjustments, a boron nitride nanotube with a one-

square-meter membrane could be capable of generating up to 30 megawatt-hours of electricity per year. One megawatt-hour is equal to the amount of electricity used by about 330 homes during one hour. Osmotic holds many advantages over existing power sources, Boquet argues. It produces energy consistently, not intermittently like solar or wind. Also, it doesn’t require any initializing energy to start the reaction, as does energy production from coal and other fossil fuels. “The interaction is electrostatic, and it doesn’t require any initial energy at all,” says Boquet. “It occurs due to the surface of the membrane’s pores being charged themselves.” France has not yet initiated any osmotic power projects like Statkraft’s Norway facilities, but Boquet hopes that the innovations that he and his colleagues are developing will inspire more researchers and engineers to see what they can do. In his view, osmotic is a promising addition to the mix of energy sources that the world needs to create. “It’s thus necessary to explore all sources of energy at our disposition. Osmotic energy is one source with huge potential, and yet it’s one that we haven’t utilized. It’s thus absolutely critical to explore it,” he says. “At the international level, we do see a surge of conscious aspiration, like the budding initiative Statkraft in Norway. Some networks are in the process of putting the pieces in place.” —Rick Docksai Sources: Statkraft, www.statkraft.com. Centre for Renewable Energy, www.sffe.no. Lydéric Boquet, University of Lyon, www-lpmcn.univ-lyon1 .fr/~lbocquet/.

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WorldFuture 2013 Preview

MAPPING THE FUTURE WITH

BIG T DATA By Patrick Tucker

A little-known California company called Esri offers a “Facebook for Maps” that promises to change the way we interact with our environment, predict behavior, and make decisions in the decades ahead.

he setting is central California’s Yosemite National Park. A hiker, let’s call him Steve Clark, has gone missing on one of the trails. As the head park ranger, your job is to lead a search-and-rescue mission to find him. All you have to go on is the point where he was last seen, your training, and a computer; from this, you have to predict the behavior of a lost hiker. Sunset is approaching, and in some parts of the park the temperature will be below freezing in a matter of hours. What do you do? Many experienced hikers know that the recommended course of action when lost is to follow a stream downhill and this will eventually lead to civilization. But you can’t assume that Steve Clark is aware of this, or that he’s even seen the Discovery Channel. He might elect to stay put, or, if he has a cell phone, he might be moving uphill to find a signal. You also don’t know if he’s injured. A person with a sprained

ESRI

a nkle is less likely to walk up, but he may not move down, either. You go to your computer and open ArcGIS.com. A computer map of Yosemite that you’ve made and uploaded appears on the screen. Let’s say you also have access to a “big data” database of records from 30,000 lost hiker search-and-rescue missions and you can query this database with key words. You soon learn that 66% of lost hikers are found within two miles of the spot last seen. You impose a ring over your map reflecting this twomile perimeter. You then learn that 52% of lost hikers are found downhill, only 32% go up, and 16% keep walking at the same elevation. You impose an elevation layer on the area with all the land above the last point seen shaded one color and the land beneath it shaded another. You can even impose a new lens depicting tree and plant cover and open fields, and one depicting linear objects like trails, roads, power lines,

The map above is more than a flat representation of the Earth. It shows a forest with colors representing height through light detection and ranging or LIDAR. Maps like this help forestors understand and manage the amount of burnable material in forest, down to the tree level.

ESRI

Finding a lost hiker in Yosemite National Park involves the application of data to mapmaking in real time.

and streams, knowing that the vast majority of lost hikers follow some sort of linear marker to avoid going in c ircles. Querying the big database of rec ords, you discover that wayward hikers usually quit trekking after about three hours. You can now create a predictive model. It’s not an absolute location but a priority list of places to check for the lost hiker. When you run the model through ArcGIS, you get three new concentric circles depicting Steve’s most likely location based on a statistical analysis of what’s in the database. But the possible area is still too big. You need more help, so you call a group of retired Yosemite park rangers—men and women who know the back trails of that area of the park better than anyone, including the

A new map emerges. The area you now have to search is several times smaller than what you were looking at an hour ago. You’ve successfully predicted where your hiker is going to be by the time you catch up with him. You’re going to find Steve Clark before the sun goes down. The above hiker scenario is one that Esri (originally Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc.) demonstrates at conferences, such as its Federal GIS user conference that took place in February. It is, in many ways, a snapshot of the way that statistical data from databases, user data from multiple participants, and social network data from the public will change the nature of rapid decision making in the years ahead. It’s a very big change, and Esri is at the forefront of the way big data and

wooded nooks and crannies where hikers are most likely to get lost. But the trails and twists through the dense forest are nameless and hard to describe; you just have to know them. You share the map with your ranger network and activate a feature that lets them color the portions that they would hit first. The potential search area has now shrunk down considerably. Next, you share the map with the public, targeting people who mentioned on Twitter and Facebook that they would be hiking in Yosemite that day. You enable these people to place points on the map where they saw something that might be a clue, like a shoelace or an article of clothing. You take every piece of information you receive and add it to your predictive model. www.wfs.org

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sound terribly exciting until you consider just how pervasive that need is and how big a player Esri is in it. With revenue of $818 million a year, it owns 47% of a $1.65 billion-ayear market for what is commonly called geographic information services, or GIS. Esri helps companies like Capital One and Starbucks plot where to place new store locations on the basis of current and future demographics, and do so on a blockby-block level. Every major U.S. oil company uses Esri to plan oil operations, which helps them act more efficiently. Environmental groups like the Nature Conservancy also use Esri to track wildlife patterns and map nature preserves. Esri’s biggest client, representing about half of its business, is the U.S. federal government. The EPA, HHS, DHS, DOD, DOI, and 25 other departments use the company’s software for location analysis and realtime information gathering. Commanders in the U.S. Marines use Esri products to plan and coordinate troop movements, and Arlington National Cemetery uses Esri maps to help relatives of deceased solders find their loved ones in Arlington’s 400,000-plot burial park. But this is just a small sampling. Some 350,000 organizations around the world use Esri software to make maps for thousands of purposes. “One of them is USGS. One of them is National Geographic,” says Dangermond. “One of them is the state of Maryland. The city of Los Angeles is one, [and] the city of Beijing [and] the city of Abu Dhabi. You go through those places, and millions of people are doing that every day.” W h e n y o u m o v e t h ro u g h a p l a n n e d g o v e r n m e n t f a c i l i t y, through an airport, through a shopping center, when you pass a strip mall on your way out of town and then climb a peak in your favorite nearby national park, the influence of Esri is literally all around you. In the nascent era of big data, Esri is poised to become much more significant as we incorporate computerized sensing and broadcasting abilities into our physical environment, creating what is sometimes called an “Internet of things.” Data from sensor networks, RFID tags, surveil-

geography will merge in the future. You’ve probably never heard of Esri, but if you work for a large enough institution, a company that changes or manages the physical landscape in any way, your boss has heard of it. To understand what this change means, you have to take a journey about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, to a little town called Redlands.

The Architect If you were to meet the man who happens to occupy number #554 on the Forbes list of richest people in the world, you might easily mistake him for a librarian. Jack Dangermond is a very untypical billionaire. Although his fortune comes from software, he’s escaped the notoriety of Mark Zuckerberg or Peter Thiel and has none of the egoistical flamboyance of, say, Larry Ellison. He’s quiet, grandfatherly, unpolished, and will address a room full of people in the same way he speaks to individuals—with a simple, authentic attentiveness. Although his company, Esri, is in the background of the way governments, major corporations, and NGOs around the world plan and understand physical space, few know he exists. Atlantic writer James Fallows, who has known Dangermond his whole life, has called him “one of the world’s secret plutocrats.” Dangermond just calls himself a landscape architect. Esri helps its clients make sense of physical space with computational assets. “When we conceived of this organization, the question was, Can we apply computer techniques and systems techniques to mapping techniques?” Dangermond told me when I visited the Esri campus in the fall of 2012. “Mapping is thought of by many people as what we do, but it’s really just the facade. It’s the modeling, the digitizing of the planet, and building of geographic relationships—that’s the real purpose of the company. We thought of that years ago when we started. We said, ‘Can we build this into a business so that it becomes a kind of organism that pushes towards improving human understanding of the environment?’” Computerized mapping may not 16

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lance cameras, unmanned aerial vehicles, and geotagged social-media posts all have geographical components to them. After decades of quietly serving the computer mapping and modeling needs of its clients, Esri has suddenly found itself in a new field, using geo-specific data to reveal how businesses, institutions, populations, and entire nations are changing—or being changed by— the physical world, in real time. Disaster management, in particular, is an area where maps updated with live, streaming data can make a big difference. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) in Hawaii used the ArcGIS platform to build a smartphone app called DisasterAWARE that “integrates near-real time hazard information with infrastructure and population data in a geospatial environment to allow decision makers to quickly assess and react to disasters,” as PDC head Chris Chiesa explained at a 2011 conference. The app offers a hazards and dangers snapshot of the world as it exists in the moment. It’s the sort of tool that a manager charged with having to evacuate a town in the path of a tsunami or hurricane—or deploy a relief team to recently hit area that might still be in the line of danger— would find invaluable. A military expression for this sort of capability is “situational awareness,” a term that engineer Mica Endsley coined in 1995 to refer to “the perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, the comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their status in the near future.” In techno-thriller television shows like NCIS, Person of Interest, and Criminal Minds, situational awareness is the command center view that the stereot ypical “geek” character employs to solve the crime, find the bad guy, and provide live back-up while the good-looking actors slink around with their pistols drawn. It serves as a sort of superpower, one that’s showing up in real command centers, on tablet PCs, and on the smartphones of Esri’s customers. “Web maps, basically, are a visual expression of all this information of change,” says Dangermond. “I’m a bit biased in this respect; I think ac-

tually all information is geographic in one way or the other.” There’s a reason Google Maps is a household name but GIS is still obscure, even though it provides much more location-based context than does most of the map data we access from our smartphones. “We’re not a consumer-facing company,” says Dangermond. When people pull out their smartphones, most are only looking for enough location information to get to their appointments on time or select among competing coffee shops or hotels. GIS is for planning, which, in the minds of most people, is something to be done by government, by companies, by institutions with the resources to hire experts. What Esri is doing, quietly, is allowing these experts across fields to look over one another’s shoulder.

The Facebook for Maps In 2010, Esri launched a new Web site, ArcGIS.com, which allows its users to share their maps in a cloud environment with anyone they choose. The maps become available across devices, from desktop to s m a r t p h o n e , a n d c a n b e p ro grammed and customized by outside developers and users the same way developers make their own apps through application programming interfaces, or APIs. Importantly, unlike GPS maps that you might access through Google, the user-generated ArcGIS maps aren’t just about location; they’re about context. A conservationist working in Northwest China and a political scientist in Washington, D.C., can access aquifer, census, and historical maps created by other users around the world. The result is a

tive suggestion that runs throughout the article, is that two of the most important antipoverty programs ever enacted, HOPE VI and Section 8, were causing crime. The rising Memphis murder rate “implicated” Section 8 in particular. Scholars in the field of public policy were quick to point out that Rosin was mistaking correlation— two things happening at the same time—with causation, or one phenomenon causing another. In a scalding critique of the article, planning experts Xavier de Souza Briggs and Peter Dreier noted, “The most casual and unfortunate part of Rosin’s analysis of crime and public housing relocation is her assertion that there must be a direct causal link somehow mirrored in the maps she discusses and shows, between a federal program and the patterns of crime in one city. She indicts a program, without any hint of direct or clear evidence, using the simple version of an ongoing mapping project by two University of Memphis researchers.” Today, we know that the relationship between crime and federally subsidized housing is actually reversed: Someone who lives in Section 8 housing is more likely to be the victim of crime than is the average person, not necessarily a perpetrator. Later, Janikowski realized that part of the reason for the crime increase in those areas was that some very important Section 8 housing units had been torn down and a vulnerable population was suddenly placed on the street. But none of that vital information was available or came across in the little-red-dot map passage in Rosin’s article. “Rosin heard these ideas when she interviewed a number of the nation’s

sort of social-networking hub for geographic information. “This is kind of like Facebook for geography, where our users are sharing their maps, or connecting their maps, into a cloud environment,” says Dangermond. It’s a huge step forward in terms of the way most people understand place. But that doesn’t mean that expanded GIS awareness, especially in the hands of a few, is without controversy. Putting items on a map can make complex situations appear more s imple than they in fact are. Here’s a case in point.

X Marks the Scene of Future Crime In 2008, Atlantic writer Hanna Rosin wrote an article discussing the role that Section 8 housing, which is government-subsidized housing for individuals at a low income level, seemed to be having on crime in the city of Memphis. As part of her research, she interviewed Memphis crime expert Richard Janikowski and housing expert Phyllis Betts. Janikowski had been working with people in the local Memphis government to develop more data-driven approaches to crime fighting, and so he had a big crime hotspot map. With Rosin looking on, Janikowski and Betts superimposed the Section 8 housing map, showing the areas where people lived in federally subsidized housing, on top of the crime map. Here’s how Rosin described it: “On the merged map, dense violentcrime areas are shaded dark blue, and Section 8 addresses are represented by little red dots. All of the dark-blue areas are covered in little red dots, like bursts of gunfire. The rest of the city has almost no dots.” The conclusion, and the provoca-

Jack Dangermond speaks at one of Esri’s user conferences.

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top housing researchers, but she chose to misconstrue what they said in order to produce the dramatic, but misleading, conclusion that low- income housing programs had the unintended consequence of driving up crime, including murder—all the way out in the once-healthy Memphis suburbs and city neighborhoods too. We have not claimed that this effect is impossible, only that she never presents adequate evidence for it,” note Briggs and Dreier. Esri, along with IBM, didn’t write the article or lead Rosin to her conclusions, but Esri software played a role in developing the Memphis hotspot map. There’s a cautionary takeaway from the story: Items on a map, like correlations across big data sets, can suggest relationships that don’t exist or misrepresent relationships as they are. Because an interactive map can communicate so much so very quickly, it works to fuel faster decision making, and faster is not always better. Memphis was one of the first cities in the United States to attempt to deploy police to designated areas in anticipation of future incidents (based on statistical analysis). This practice is more commonly known as predictive policing and is a key area of growth for Esri. It’s also controversial. Some civilliberties advocates worry that predictive policing tactics could be used to preempt peaceful civil demonstrations, as some claimed happened in Miami in the 2003 World Trade Organization protests. In New York, predictive policing is considered a key component of the city’s zero-tolerance approach to crime, and it factors in the use of stop-and-frisk tactics that have repeatedly been challenged in court as discriminatory and potentially unconstitutional. None of these problems is the fault of Esri or interactive maps, but they do highlight the dangers of looking at a chart of blighted areas, adding a new map of bright red dots, and suddenly seeing only a field of potential criminals instead of the full picture. As these GIS systems become more robust and make their way from the command center to phones that individual patrol units carry with them, the powers of law 18

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“Web maps, basically, are a visual expression of all this information of change,” says Dangermond. “I’m a bit biased in this respect; I think actually all information is geographic in one way or the other.”

enforcement will expand even in places where the relationship between law enforcement and the community is sour. This speaks to one of the big worries that privacy advocates have about big data: that large institutions will use new capabilities against the interests of consumers, citizens, and communities. When a bank takes a data snapshot of a neighborhood, sees that a majority of the residents lives paycheck to paycheck, and puts in a high-interest payday loan office, they’re using people’s data against them in a way that’s perfectly legal but not ethical, and likely to become more common. To Janikowski, the best way to avoid these traps is to involve more data sources and more experts and institutions, to use the power of the collaborative computer mapping to its fullest potential. This, he says, is what Betts’s Center for Community Building is attempting in Memphis. “One of the things [the Center] is doing is working with [the Memphis Police Department] to integrate with MPD all of those kinds of layers, from foreclosures to blight, to population transitions as neighborhoods change [and] as populations are moving,” says Janikowski. This involves not just “analysis of risk factors, but also all kinds of information on assets in the community that you can leverage and build with. Because it’s not just, ‘what are the risks?’ but also, ‘what are your available assets •

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right now?’ that you can build on.” Every map is only as good as the data that built it and the understanding of the map maker. When we look at the Lenox Globe, considered the cutting edge of mapmaking in the early sixteenth century, and we discover in the portion of the globe represented by East Asia the Latin inscription Hc Svnt Dracones or “here are dragons,” we see a ridiculous attempt on the part of the mapmaker to disguise his ignorance through deceit. But we’re prone to the same intellectual traps. Our inclination is to treat maps as absolute and infallible instructions. You follow the dotted line to the big X and you reach your goal. If we can avoid the temptation to view any map as complete, if we can remind ourselves not to simply layer a map of housing subsidies on top of the crime map and call it a day, if we can find the energy to instead go one map further, and then another, and then another, then perhaps GIS will live up to its fullest potential. It will become a tool to take knowledge that’s been accumulated across disciplines and recombine it in a way that’s useful to an ever-growing sphere of people. Uniting the world and all the data we’ve gathered about it through a shared geographical understanding, and then creating maps that go backward and forward in time: This is the promise Dangermond sees in the future of Esri. “We’ve got all of these ‘-ologies’— biology, archaeology, cultural geography, and physical geography. We have all the different sciences that we’ve have dichotomized, or broken down; we’ve dissected our world into specialists of science. But how do you put it all back together again? That,” he says, “is the interesting part.” ❑ About the Author Patrick Tucker is the deputy editor of THE FUTURIST magazine and director of communications for the World Future Society. His first book, The Naked Future: How the Science of Prediction Changes Everything, is forthcoming from Current in 2014.

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Professional Members also have the opportunity to meet once a year to focus more intensively on crucial topics in our field. The Professional Members Forums feature some of the top thinkers in futures studies, who convene to share insights in a small-group setting that allows for dynamic interaction. Recent forums have been held in Washington, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Boston, Vancouver, and Toronto. Upcoming forums are also scheduled in Chicago and Orlando. Join now, and receive:

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New Tools for War and Peace: Technology Game Changers An Interview with John Watts 0011101000001010010010001110101000010101000 0110010001010110101001000100001010101010111 0110010001010110101001000100001010101010111 01001 01001 01001 00001 Militaries and civilians alike 01001 01001 01001 01000 01001 plan for technological change, 00001 01001 01101 00001 01011 says security consultant 00000 10001 11011 01001 John Watts. Tools such as 01101 01111 01000 01101 00111 analytical gaming can be 01011 01001 01000 10000 01001 useful to both military 01010 01000 00001 01011 and civilian planners for 01111 01001 01011 00011 00000 developing new concepts. 01001 01001 11011 00000 11001 01001 0110010001010110101001000100001010101010111 0100000000011110000001111101010101010101010 0110010001010110101001000100001010101010111 0110010001010110101001000100001010101010111

The use of aerial drones by military forces and some civilian governments has attracted considerable public attention—and controversy— in the last few years. Drones are, however, only one of a number of potentially “game-changing” technologies that John Watts, a security consultant with the Australian firm Noetic Group, expects could shake up military and civilian life in huge ways in coming years. Others on his list include drugs that boost soldiers’ strength and intelligence, as well as swarms of insect-sized nanobots that decimate an enemy military force’s vehicles before the firing even starts. Watts is helping both civilian and military professionals in Australia and in the United States to prepare for radical innovations such as these. In workshops, he guides clients through a brand of scenario-planning exercises called analytical gaming, based on military war games that assess how battle plans might play out. Over the last year, in an ongoing series of NeXTech workshops, Noetic has worked with Peter Singer, author of Wired for War, to help audiences think in new ways about the near-future ramifications of such game changers as drones, cuttingedge software, bio-modifications, energy weapons, and 3-D printing.

Two drones from the company Ascending Technologies.

A BQM-74E Chukar target drone launches from the deck of a U.S. Navy ship. Private and military drones represent one of the “game-changing” technologies that will reshape the security environment in the decades ahead.

GREGOR HARTL / ARS ELECTRONICA / FLICKR

He discussed his methodology and his thoughts on future military technology in the following interview with THE FUTURIST, conducted by associate editor Rick Docksai. THE FUTURIST: Let’s start by talking a little about NeXTech. Is it an ongoing project? John Watts: It’s a series of four events that we’ve been holding over twelve months, with the final one on March 27-28. The intent of the project was to build a framework for thinking about game-changing technologies. We’ve developed a framework through the project that we are testing and validating through these workshops. We will be producing a final report for our client that will come out later this year, and we’re looking at releasing other papers based on our experiences examining the focal technologies during the events. The primary client is the [U.S.] Department of Defense. They want to understand the impacts of emerging technologies, but also new ways to think about them. [ N e X Te c h ] b u i l d s o ff o f t h e Evolved Irregular Threat project we ran in 2011, which looked at the capabilities of groups like Hezbollah, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam, LET—the group that undertook the

DOD PHOTO BY MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS STUART PHILIPS / U.S. NAVY

attack on Mumbai—and other irregular sub-state groups that have the ability to generate statelike capabilities. Drug cartels have homemade submarines. Organized crime syndicates in Mexico have developed makeshift armored vehicles. Many of these groups are turning out technologies that are not as sophisticated as [what] a state player has, but they’re not far from it. Groups like Hezbollah have aid agencies and civil engineering units. They have the full range of statelike capability, across from diplomacy and the administration of government services to, on the other end of the scale, capabilities for coercion and violence. We look not only at their ability to cause harm, but also at their ability to deal with the media and govern. One of the findings we had was www.wfs.org

that groups could take emerging technologies and adapt them to their use a lot quicker than a state actor could, and, if they did, then we would actually be behind the curve. So the goal of the NeXTech project was to see what constitutes a gamechanging technology: How do we identify what will be a game changer, and how do we keep pace with it? Much of the innovation today is coming out of the private sector, not the government field. We see the government now taking on iPads and iPhones and adapting them to their systems, but most government officials are still walking around with BlackBerrys, which are five or six years out of date. THE FUTURIST: Cyber warfare does garner concern among leaders •

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this third event. We also had foreign care? What if they decide on their military officers, disruptive-technol- own to take the tablets—do we preogy experts, people who were ex- vent that or allow them to make perts on cartels, and even a few film their own choice? There are a whole producers. We made an effort to range of entangled ethical, legal, and bring in people who with nontradi- policy implications. We want to at tional mind-sets, people who were least start the discussion. outside the © BIDOUZE STÉPHANE / DREAMSTIME usual commentary on defense issues. In the fourth event, we tried to understand the potential ethical and legal implications. There will be weapons that we won’t use because our value systems won’t allow them, but our adversaries might. We found particularly that we in Western culture have a A man carries a UAV flying drone. difficult time with the concept of human THE FUTURIST: I’m going to ask performance modification. The technology is advancing rapidly and you now about one particular game there are many new possibilities, but changer, and it’s the deployment of at what point do we start getting un- futuristic swarms of nanobots by the comfortable with enhanced human military—how would this compare parts? At what point do we draw to the use of aerial drones? How much more accurate, and less likely that line? During the Olympics, with the to inflict widespread collateral damSouth African runner who ran on age, might the nanobots be? Watts: There are a number of asprosthetic legs, there was a lot of talk about whether he should be allowed pects, and they can be beneficial in a to run with able-bodied runners. number of ways depending on the This is a discussion that we are application. Let me give you an exfacing more broadly. In that case ample. Antiaircraft missiles are exthey decided that it was not an “ad- pensive and a military platform only vantage,” but at what point will carries a limited number of them. If society draw that line with what we you fire a missile at a drone, that’s a accept and what we don’t? We need big investment for a single engageto consider the second- and third- ment. At a large, highly capable order effects of these issues. For ex- drone, it’s a worthwhile investment. ample, if we developed a smart tab- What happens if you have fifty let that would make every soldier 10 $10,000 drones coming at you? Do IQ points smarter, that would be you fire a million-dollar missile at a game changing. But what happens if $10,000 drone? This is one benefit to there is a higher chance of Alzheimer’s swarms of drones. The loss of one is in later age? Can we as a society ask not as drastic. There are simple our soldiers to take that risk? What drones out there now that are relais the long-term burden on health tively cheap.

in the United States and in many other countries’ armed forces. They’ve all got unique departments specifically tasked with anticipating cyber threats. But the array of gamechanging technologies clearly extends far beyond cyber warfare. Perhaps one could say that your goal is to get military leaders thinking about all game-changing technologies in the way that they are already thinking about cyber warfare. Watts: This is very much what we’re looking to do. For our first NeXTech event, we examined what does “game changing” mean—what is on the horizon, generally. So we brought in defense professionals, defense policy officials, and people from military-related tech companies, but we also brought in people who were completely unconnected to the military, such as angel investors and people from companies who are developing technologies, people from across the spectrum who are thinking about what trends are coming. Throughout NeXTech, we tried to keep a balance between military- specific expertise and technical and research expertise from outside. And we would tailor each event and its audience to what we were trying to achieve. When we wanted alternative perspectives, we would deliberately limit the numbers of traditional audience members and look for people with outside perspectives. The technologies affect everyone, so we wanted to capture everyone’s perspectives and for everyone to start thinking about them. The second event was about how the American military would use these technologies in the future. It was U.S. military officials, predominantly. The third event was about how other cultures might use the technologies. What has been interesting is the way our values dictate the way we conceive of technology and how we approach it. Singer talks in his book Wired for War about how the Japanese view robots in a very positive light, whereas we in the West tend to view robots negatively. People are very constrained by their current value sets. We had U.S. military officials at 22

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In terms of the value of drones, however, I think that the robotics aspect of the project has the greatest potential to change how we conduct military warfare, and there are a few reasons. One is that we are increasingly less tolerant of human casualties. People turned to robotics in the scenarios because it changed their risk calculations. More than that, there is so much scope for what could be done with robotics. It’s not that the drone does X in itself. It’s that it enables it to happen in a new way. Drones can be used in so many applications, and that’s why people find them so attractive in their future potential. Swarming drones can be used in many scenarios and applications. I think they will become more ubiquitous in civilian society, too, because they are so useful. There are a series of things that will need to happen first, but I do see a huge potential for them to become adaptable to society. They could revolutionize the way we undertake errands and think about geography. We could use personal drones to do many day-to-day tasks, such as delivering mail to a central post office. THE FUTURIST: One news article on NeXTech and game-changing technologies brought up the factor of public perception—if the general public is afraid of the new technologies, then they won’t get developed. But how much military R&D does the public really know about, anyway? Military agencies tend to undertake technology ventures in secret, for obvious reasons. Couldn’t the military develop what it needs to develop and limit public interference by simply limiting public information about the new technologies? Or is that level of secrecy even possible nowadays? Watts: I would argue that perhaps it’s never been all that possible. If you’re an intelligent, well-educated person who knows where to look, there are very few things in the world that you can’t find out about. Occasionally you get things that surprise people, like the stealth helicopters that were used in the Osama bin Laden raid. That caught a lot of people off guard, but it wasn’t an unknown technology—just a new application.

entry falls. I can envision a time where every household has its own drone and cheap robotic systems can fly certain routes intelligently. Instead of having to go to a post office to mail a letter, you can put it into your drone and tell it to go to the post office. How will people think about drones if they have their own drones? If every household has that and there are thousands of drones running errands for them, it’s a big game change. Then the drones become a positive influence in their lives. An app called GrubHub comes to my mind. It’s an app on your phone you can use to order takeout food. Obviously, it’s no different from calling a place to order food. But you have 20 restaurants right there to choose from, and they deliver; I can order off the menu without having to call anyone, and the food just appears at my door 40 minutes later. There’s nothing radically different from what we’ve been doing for 20 or 30 years, but it’s a small tweak that changes the dynamic. It’s looking at how the technologies can suddenly combine to change life. [For] the majority of people, if it’s beneficial or intuitive in some way, it’s going to go into accepted use. The way people approach the technologies is going to change in accordance with how we use them. [For] children who are growing up talking to Siri and using iPhones, their view of robotic technology is going to be very different from the views of adults today. Autonomous cars, which Google and other companies are prototyping, are going to be another fascinating area of development. Many people today would say that’s dangerous; you need a human in the car. But humans can override their own judgment. They can break the law deliberately, whereas robots who are driving the cars can only abide by the rules they are set. If one person dies in a vehicle driven by an autonomous computer, there will be an uproar, and no one will get into a robot-driven car. Over time, though, it could become more acceptable. More-sophisticated technologies will build more confidence, and as more people take time to un-

Obviously, drones are a very controversial issue at the moment, even though that technology has been around for a long time; it has only really gotten the public’s attention in the last year or two. Once a technology is developed, though, we really can’t just put it back in Pandora’s box. We still have nuclear weapons, for instance, even though we don’t use them. The question is how do we regulate it, and this is a process with many different stakeholders who will shape the discussion. I think society will find out about new technologies, people will know about it, and they can shape policy makers’ decisions about their use. But you can’t expect them all to be experts on it. There is a role for commentators, journalists, and analysts to shape the discussion. Generally, people also don’t understand the constraints of the technologies, and they assume these technologies can do much more than they can. THE FUTURIST: It seems that public discussion about drones only really ignited when drones started going into use in civilian life in the last few years—for instance, some police departments bought drones to monitor traffic and people. This seems to underscore what you were saying earlier about how military life and civilian life intertwine, and that it is important to hear the perspectives of both. Watts: Correct. And in my mind, it’s not important what the platform is that’s undertaking the action. What matters is that the action is being done. It doesn’t matter that a police force is using a drone to track a car in a high-speed chase instead of a helicopter. You can spy into someone’s backyard using a helicopter. You’re still spying into someone’s backyard. The difference is that it’s more ubiquitous, and it’s cheaper, so more people are doing it. [As for] drone strikes in Pakistan: There’s no real difference between a drone strike or an F-18 strike from my perspective. The actual weapon is, in fact, the same on the airplane and on the drone. And it’s still one country using kinetic force within another’s territory. A technology tends to be around for a long time before the barrier of www.wfs.org

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months of travel, because a lot of people in Europe had not yet adopted the Internet culture. Flash forward 5 years: People had adopted the Internet far more widely and were using it in ways I had never thought of. Now take the example of online banking. Australia is further ahead in this regard. It was easier for me to transfer money internationally from an account in Australia than it was for me to move money from an account in America to another American account. The U.S. system has improved since then, but the online banking system in Australia is still more sophisticated and easier to use. It’s a sticking point for tourists coming over to the United States from Australia, but in many other places, it’s the reverse. Online shopping is still in its infancy in Australia, for instance. We have a long way to catch up with that. Looking at the NeXTech focal technologies, in the United States, there is a far more sophisticated community of people using drone technologies in innovative new ways than in Australia. Having said that, because Australia is a smaller community than the United States, if the technology catches on, I could see it catching on in a much quicker time frame. At the moment, we in Australia are behind in that technology, but I think we are in a position to adapt it very quickly if there is a breakout point. THE FUTURIST: When you speak at WorldFuture this summer, you’ll talk about “war-gaming” planning strategies and about how civilian leaders can use them in nonmilitary settings. It sounds like military and national-security leaders think in different ways than do leaders in civil government and business. How would you distinguish the two mind-sets? Watts: What I’ll be talking about at WorldFuture will be the methodologies. Many of the methodologies had their backgrounds in military war gaming, which is used not just for technology, but also for testing and v a l i d a t i n g m o s t p l a n s . We ’ v e adapted those methods and applied them to different problem sets. What we’ve found is that we can use these approaches, which are re-

derstand it, then their values toward it will shift. I was in Costa Rica last year and going on a lot of tour-guided activities. The tour guides were all in their early 20s. They were fit, energetic; they had a passion for ecotourism and for their country and loved being in the forest. When they weren’t doing tours, they were hiking or doing other adventure activities like white-water rafting. Now I was speaking with one of them and asked if it was common for people outside the tourist industry to spend a lot of time out in the forest. He said that to his father’s and grandfather’s generation the forest represented something destructive. It was where you went to cut down timber. It was an area for hard and dangerous work. You didn’t go there to have fun. Now it has flipped, and this change happened over one generation. People talk about Generation Y being more open with their lives on Facebook and Instagram. That represents a slight shift from earlier generations’ privacy concerns. With the next generation now, who are toddlers growing up with touch screens everywhere and all of us talking to our phones, the change could go even further. That’s why I encourage not getting hung up on the technology itself, but rather thinking about how to think about this technology. The changes are going to keep happening, and we have to be prepared to think about them rather than just having a set answer. THE FUTURIST: We’ve talked so far about your work with U.S. officials. Now I’d like to ask you some about your advising officials in Australia. What kinds of issues do your Australian clients tend to bring to the table? Watts: I think we’re a bit behind the eight ball in the focal technology areas of robotics, but it can change quickly. The approach to technology is quite fascinating in itself. I have a lot of family friends in Germany, and I remember traveling there in the late nineties. At that time, the Internet was in its nascent stages. I was only able to check my e-mail three or four times in about nine or ten 24

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ally just a way of drawing out and combining subject-matter expertise and generating new ideas from experts. So at the NeXTech war games, we’d have people with multiple doctorates but little understanding of military applications. How do you get them to talk to someone with a military background but not a law or science degree or technical expertise? These tools that help the military to think in new ways could have great applications for civilian uses, as well. For instance, we have also utilized them for international organizations such as the United Nations and other global development agencies to build consensus and draw out best practices. Military forces have to operate in environments where information is extremely limited or confused, and they have to try to understand what the risks are and operate anyway. Those conditions don’t generally occur in civilian life. There is, in fact, a high-risk methodology approach that is useful specifically in military life. But the same methodologies could also be useful for nonmilitary planners. The war-gaming strategy—or analytical gaming—that we take is useful in a broad range of areas. I’ll be talking about analytical gaming in the context of understanding future technology. It’s a way of basing a discussion around scenarios to understand second- and third-order implications and to draw out participants’ areas of expertise. I will talk through the methodology and show examples of how we do it. ❑

About the Interviewee John Watts is a consultant working on U.S. and international security issues with Noetic Corporation in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @john_t_watts. Watts will explore analytical gaming methodology and its usefulness for settings outside the military during his keynote luncheon presentation, “Understanding Future Threats Through Analytical Gaming,” at WorldFuture 2013 on Saturday, July 20. This interview was conducted by Rick Docksai, associate editor of THE FUTURIST and World Future Review. E-mail rdocksai@ wfs.org.

WorldFuture 2013 Preview

The Rise of Citizen Science By Kathleen Toerpe From tracking the migration of songbirds to discovering new celestial bodies, amateur scientists may help fill in a need for more researchers. Beyond helping “real” scientists collect data, amateurs are becoming better trained, better equipped, and better prepared to contribute to tomorrow’s breakthroughs. Imagine yourself discovering a nother Earth. Or identifying an unknown underwater species. Helping the blind to see. Finding a cure for cancer. Proving the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life. Such visions motivate hundreds of thousands of ordinary people—of all ages, from around the world and all walks of life—to participate in the phenomenon known as “citizen science.” Also called “crowdsourced science”—or, more formally, “public participation in scientific research”— citizen science is “the systematic collection and analysis of data; development of technology; testing of natural phenomena; and the dissemination of these activities by researchers on a primarily avocational basis,” according to OpenScientist .org. It has evolved from hobby to serious science and is on its way to becoming the favored twenty-firstcentury model for conducting largescale scientific research. First and foremost, citizen science answers the scientific community’s need for more researchers. Academic scientists get an army of motivated and dedicated volunteers who are trained in basic data identification, collection, interpretation, and

MARTIN MALTHE BORCH / MEDICAL MUSEION

AMY KOVACH / COURTESY OF NATIONAL AUDUBON SOCIETY

At the University of Copenhagen’s Medical Museion, Rüdiger Trojok demonstrates DNA “hacking”—an extraction process using salt, ice, and alcohol— showing visitors how easy it can be to take part in biotech research.

as a gateway to individual projects, sponsors most of the citizen science research programs. Bird watcher participates in the National Audubon Yale University’s partner- Society’s 2012 Christmas Bird Count. ship with the Zooniverse platform is one of the major models here: Zooniverse han- multiple, complex ones. A data set dles log-in, authentication, project might consist of radio frequency sigpromotion, and visitor tracking for nals picked up by SETILive’s Allen Telescope Array, searching for signs Yale’s Planet Hunters. Many of today’s most popular of extraterrestrial life, or of variaprojects are conducted start-to-finish tions in starlight, recorded by the online, with volunteers acting as Kepler telescope on Planet Hunters, gamers who “win” by finding pat- that are produced when an extra terns hidden in the data sets. These solar planet, or exoplanet, passes in massive amounts of aggregate raw front of its star. Volunteers tag the data are the product of data-genera- pattern or anomaly; it is then farmed tor behemoths like NASA’s Kepler out to other volunteers for verificaMission, the Sloan Digital Sky Sur- tion and comment, with academic vey, and University of California at scientists reviewing and interpreting the final results. Collaboration is faSanta Cruz’s Genome Browser. Locale-based projects might in- cilitated through online forums in volve research at a local lake or wild- which participants report unusual life sanctuary, one’s workplace, findings and speculate on their sigbackyard, or even one’s own home. nificance. Adding elements of gaming to the These projects are more heterogeneous and closed-ended, while mass projects, such as tokens, awards, and online research projects, such as as- points, reinforces motivation, as tronomy-based Galaxy Zoo, SETI does recognizing individual effort Live, and Planet Hunters, and bio- both on the project Web sites and in logical projects, such as Foldit and the formal papers that announce the Phylo, are ongoing with an increas- discoveries to the academic commuingly standard and predictable for- nity for peer review. Going even mat. In those projects, volunteers are deeper into the gaming metaphor, offered a short tutorial and then the bio-project Foldit boasts top shown a series of data sets to evaluate. “player boards” and encourages It seems we humans are uniquely players to “earn” tools to build suited to these tasks. Our brains can amino acids into different configuradiscern patterns in raw data sets that tions of folded proteins. But this is all more than fun and are not picked up by computer algorithms, especially novel patterns or games. For research scientists, who

analysis. Historically, this data collection has been local and done in person, as in the Audubon Society’s popular annual Christmas Bird Count or the highly successful Wells Cook study of seasonal bird migrations—a 50-year project that yielded an impressive 6 million individual records dating back to the 1880s. Environmental organizations like the Nature Conservancy also have long encouraged their members to volunteer for hands-on, science-based projects that further their policy goals. Backyard bird studies are still a core interest of many citizen scientists, and Cornell University’s Ornithology Lab has been a leader in shaping modern citizen science proposal, training, reporting, and evaluation protocols. However, contemporary projects are decidedly more digital. SETI@home, one of the first digital citizen science projects, taps into individual users’ computer down time to run data searching for radio signals of extraterrestrial communications. This type of “distributed computing” has largely been replaced by more interactive projects. Tapping into the Science Crowd The entire citizen science movement has taken on a rather entrepreneurial feel, with the focus on science as crowd-centered and opensourced. A university or academic institute, frequently in collaboration with a hosting platform that serves 26

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are increasingly long on data and research agenda but short on grant funding and paid degreed assistants, motivating and utilizing citizen scientists to conduct either locale-based or online research has proven to be an efficient and pragmatic alternative to employing cadres of traditional graduate assistants and postdoctoral researchers. What Citizen Scientists Get from Doing Science Citizen scientists benefit from knowing they’ve helped advance scientific research and knowledge in a field they are passionate about. Plus, they get to be part of the thrill of discovery. Galaxy Zoo, which uses volunteers to classify the shapes and characteristics of galaxies, surveyed its members in 2010 and determined that they were motivated by an interest in astronomy, the personal gratification of doing original research, and a sense of awe at the vastness of space. The contributions of these citizen scientist volunteers can both make a difference and make headlines, as journalist Michael Belfiore recently found when he profiled Jaime N omen, a Spanish dental surgeon. Nomen used telescopic cameras at the La Sagra Observatory to identify the now-famous asteroid 2012 DA14, which glided to within 17,300 miles of Earth on February 15, 2013. With only a scant 1% of the nearly one million Near Earth Objects identified and tracked, there is an all too obvious need for more eyes on the skies. Closer to Earth, there is a citizen science project for every appetite. The diverse range of projects vying for volunteers is impressive and shows the extent to which the academic community has embraced citizen science. Activities include: • Documenting numbers of ducks shot by hunters. • Measuring levels of industrial pollutants in local water supplies. • Monitoring individual microorganisms inhabiting one’s own body. • Recording seismic activity in individual homes and offices. • Classifying unidentified underwater seafloor organisms.

formula for society, scientists, and the volunteers themselves.

• Monitoring local automobile traffic patterns. • Mapping retinal connections to understand the mechanisms behind human sight. • Recording the number of local outdoor ice rinks to corroborate climate data with observable ice freeze. Even such subjective projects as monitoring your baby’s laughter or the intelligence of your dog are available. Late to the party but not to be left out, the humanities are testing the waters of volunteer research assistance. For example, the Ancient Lives project is cataloging and transcribing ancient Egyptian papyri scanned into an online database. Zooniverse is collaborating with the Imperial War Museum in London for a World War I project. Thus, for the citizen scientist, whether teenager or retiree or anywhere in between, citizen science offers a cafeteria of choices and the tantalizing hope of discovery. Society, too, benefits from this partnership between professional scientists and dedicated amateurs. There is a global demand for increased proficiency in the STEM disciplines (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). Boosted by initial successes with trained amateurs and feeling stretched thin by mounting backlogs of raw data, these are the precise fields that are most active in recruiting citizen scientists. With Web site links for volunteers to go deeper into the science behind the games, the projects provide hands-on STEM opportunities in tune with academia’s advocacy of lifelong learning for everyone. Culturally, these projects tap into the themes of our everyday life. For instance, Cancer Research UK’s Cellslider project is mapping patterns in archived cancer cells, making the race for the cure everyone’s race. Politically, a more scientifically literate electorate might, in democratic countries, result in more vocal support for science initiatives and science-minded candidates at the ballot box. Overall, from its humble beginnings in bird-watching and environmental activism, citizen science has proven itself to be a win-win-win www.wfs.org

Managing Scientific Conduct and Methodology Significant challenges lay ahead, however, if citizen science is to reach its full potential in academia and extend eventually to the private sector. With the upsurge in the number and breadth of citizen science projects come concerns about standards of competency, ethics, assessment, and oversight. Locale-based projects, especially, are difficult to monitor for accuracy and integrity of data. Don’t we all think our baby or dog is cuter and smarter than the average? Subjectivity in data collection can derail the best of scientific studies and can be difficult to avoid, even for veteran researchers. These concerns cut across project lines, and the most efficient solutions may be ones that train and certify volunteers in the overall conduct and methodology of science rather than in specific project content. Twoyear community and technical colleges could have a prominent role here, creating Citizen Science 101 mini-courses that could teach the scientific method and the ethical practice of scientific inquiry through participation in specific citizen science projects. New York’s Bard College sets a broad example for this with its new “Citizen Science” requirement. All Bard freshmen take a three-week intensive introduction to the scientific method, regardless of their anticipated major field. Coursera, Udacity, and edX, emerging leaders in designing massive open online courses (MOOCs), could also contract with gateway sites to provide online certification training that would be simultaneously accessible to tens of thousands of people. Beyond training scientists, recruitment and retention continue to be problems for projects committed to ongoing research. Zooniverse’s portal has hosted more than 740,000 citizen science visitors from 196 countries since its inaugural in 2007, but half of those volunteers completed only a few data sets before moving on. That disappointing retention rate •

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many completely conducted online—on-demand computer access, basic Internet savvy, and high-speed availability are prerequisites. This effectively shrinks the number of potential volunteers from lower socioeconomic strata, whose work commitments may also leave limited free time. Gateway providers could partner with community colleges, senior centers, and libraries to use citizen science projects as teaching tools in their computer-learning classes. This can reap benefits in STEM skills all around, as can tying citizen science projects to natural and social science curricula in colleges that serve working-class and returning students. Still left out of the picture are interested recruits from developing countries where limitations in highspeed access may make online projects difficult—not to mention more underlying social and economic impediments. While the latter challenge is beyond the reach of citizen science, current experiments in creating mobile phone app-based projects may increase access in countries with established cellular networks. The increasing complexity of the research projects themselves poses its own challenges. Phylo, which has volunteers look for patterns in human gene sequencing, requires more than the cursory background information provided, since terms like “heuristic” are not part of most people’s everyday vocabulary. While MOOCs can provide basic instruction in scientific methodology, training specific to each project will still be required; unnecessary jargon and pedantry are counterproductive. Increasingly complex projects will require commensurately sophisticated user interfaces, sensing devices, and reporting platforms. As the citizen science movement becomes an industry, these will all be streamlined and standardized. Darlene Cavalier and Robert Cheetham recently reported at the Science Online 2013 conference that baby steps in this direction are under way. Experimental handheld data sensors such as Sensordrone and WildLab use mobile phone apps to collect and transmit data, providing portability and standardization. Other promis-

from one of the movement’s largest stakeholders may mean that visitors are more curious than committed, or that they are merely sampling different projects to find a perfect fit. Not a bad thing, necessarily, but it does mean professional staff needs to focus much of their time on attracting and retaining volunteers, instead of analyzing data results, formulating conclusions, and disseminating research for review. Interestingly, ornithology’s citizen scientists are a committed lot; volunteers in the Breeding Bird Survey averaged eight years of involvement, with 10% still active after 25 years. This likely reflects the more established nature of these projects, the central role of organizations like the Audubon Society, and ornithology’s longtime success in attracting backyard bird watchers. If that is the case, then the retention numbers in other projects may stabilize after visitors each find their niche, settle down, and get to work (or start playing!) and as the overall movement matures. Recruiting and retention, however, would be easier if project designers had a firmer understanding of the average, or even ideal, citizen scientist to attract. Preliminary—and admittedly incomplete and anecdotal—demographic profiling shows citizen scientists to be predominantly middle income and having completed some college. Excluding students who complete citizen science projects as part of classroom assignments, a significant number of volunteers are middle-aged or older, with college degrees in fields unrelated to the projects they are involved in. In the United States, the demographic bubble of baby-boom retirees, many now active as citizen scientists, will continue to pad the numbers, but as this cohort thins, participants may be harder to find. The gaming platform of newer projects may help attract younger participants. Compounding the problem is the fact that some citizen scientists volunteer on multiple projects concurrently, so a marked reduction in total participants will have a ripple effect across multiple projects. And, of course, since most projects are accessed and reported online—and 28

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ing innovations in the pipeline include streamlined authentication and log-in protocols, upgraded user interfaces, and standardized online reporting forms. As the movement gropes its way to consolidation, expect to see more projects come under the banner of fewer gateway providers. While lessening the entrepreneurial feel of the projects, it will allow for efficiency of administrative functions, especially for time-consuming recruiting, retention, and tracking efforts, and will provide a seamless “entry to exit” experience for volunteers. This, in itself, may help boost retention numbers. The New Collaborative Relationship The most vexing challenge facing citizen science, however, may be forging a new model of collaboration between scientists and volunteers. At what point do highly trained amateurs become dissatisfied with tallying and collecting data or discerning patterns in data sets and demand a more vocal role in project creation, administration, funding, and even final published output? The Public Laboratory for Open Technology and Science (PLOTS) is already creating open-source “communities of shared interest” in which participants can create their own local environmental projects, sans scientists. CitSci also encourages individuals to create their own projects or to join the projects designed by other citizen scientists. And at what point are degreed scientists reduced to caretakers, displaced by people who, to be honest, are still comparative amateurs? Is there a pushback scenario to be avoided? One solution is to invite citizen scientists into the inner circle. Historically, citizen science projects have been informally classed according to the objects, subjects, or locales studied. Projects were critter-based, environment-based, interaction-based, document-based, or space-based, depending on focus. The Center for the Advancement of Informal Science Education (CAISE) has suggested an alternate ranking based on the depth of scientist-volunteer collaboration:

GLACIER NPS

Counting mountain goats: A citizen scientist scans the cliffs near Preston Park.

GLACIER NPS

Participant collects data about vegetation patterns on Pitamakan Peak in the Glacier National Park. The work of citizen scientists is an important part of the U.S. National Park Service’s Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) project. NPS PHOTO BY KRISTEN M. CALDON

Star Party hosted by Grand Canyon National Park attracts thousands of astronomy fans, both as volunteers and as visitors.

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Selected Resources for Citizen Scientists Web sites • Advancing Informal STEM Learning (Center for Advancement of Informal Science Education), www.caise.insci.org/ • Bard College Citizen Science Program, www.citizenscience.bard.edu/ • Cellslider, www.cellslider.net/ • Citizen Science Central, The Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, www.citizenscience.org • Citizen Science Quarterly, www.citizensciencequarterly.com/ • Foldit, www.fold.it/portal/ • Galaxy Zoo, www.galaxyzoo.org/ • Phylo, www.phylo.cs.mcgill.ca/ • Planet Hunters, www.planethunters.org/ • SciStarter, www.scistarter.com/ • SETILive, www.setilive.org/ • United States Rocket Academy, Citizens in Space, www.citizensinspace .org/ • Zooniverse, www.zooniverse.org/ Books • Citizen Science: Public Participation in Environmental Research, edited by Rick Bonney and Janis L. Dickinson (Comstock Publishing Associates/Cornell University Press, 2012). • Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of Networked Science by Michael Nielsen (Princeton University Press, 2011). For more resources and links, please visit THE FUTURIST online.

entists, and society is tangible and lasting.

• Contributory projects limit citizen scientists to more passive roles in data collection and identification. This represents the majority of available projects today. • Collaborative and co-created projects, on the other hand, allow for increasingly autonomous roles for volunteers to define hypotheses, set research protocols, interpret findings, and disseminate conclusions. This is what CitSci is doing. This is where passive citizen science becomes Citizen Science 2.0. Remember Jaime Nomen, the dentistturned-astronomer who discovered asteroid 2012 DA14? He is a team leader at La Sagra Observatory, writing and receiving grant money from The Planetary Society for upgraded equipment, and now spends more time hunting asteroids than pulling teeth. So, while collaborative and co- created projects may require more up-front preparation, training, and oversight, the payoff to citizens, sci30

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What’s Ahead for Citizen Science Future opportunities await citizen science as the private sphere—e.g., pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, information technology, and energy industries—taps into public concerns over shortages of resources, health, and privacy. The challenge will be whether for-profit corporations can inspire volunteers to donate the time and effort required to launch and sustain projects that immediately benefit shareholders rather than society at large. Private corporations will likely take a more proactive role in providing the standardized interfaces, reporting protocols, and project design templates currently lacking. Moving forward, expect citizen scientists to openly advocate for their positions on science and technology issues, as individuals or through coordinated political action. •

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Signs abound that citizen science is here to stay: The inaugural Public Participation in Scientific Research academic conference was held in August 2012, and the movement has debuted an online journal, the Citizen Science Quarterly. These are important benchmarks of institutional legitimacy. Citizen scientists have earned a seat at the table and will want a voice as their research is translated into public policy. Darlene Cavalier calls it “participatory technology assessment,” and it integrates the citizen scientist’s roles as researcher, beneficiary, and taxpayer. The ultimate thrill may still await. The United States Rocket Academy, a private space enterprise that has purchased 10 suborbital flights from XCOR Aerospace, has founded “Citizens in Space.” It is recruiting citizen s c i e n t i s t s t o c re a t e t h e i r o w n research experiments, or payloads, to be conducted in space. Better yet, they will be training ten citizen astronauts to conduct those payloads. From citizen to scientist to astronaut, all from the humble beginnings of backyard bird-watching! Citizen science has proven that there is power in numbers and in commitment. If two heads are better than one, and four heads are better than two, then the exploding phenomenon of citizen science has shown that hundreds of thousands are by far the best yet. And, who knows? You may even be the first to find ET! ❑ About the Author Kathleen Toerpe is a social and cultural historian who researches the interrelationship between outer space and human societies through the emerging field of astrosociology. She is currently involved with the 100 Year Starship effort to lay the groundwork for future interstellar travel and volunteers as a NASA/JPL Solar System Ambassador. She teaches social sciences at Northeast Wisconsin Technical College and has spent her spare time hunting for exoplanets and extraterrestrials as a citizen scientist. She can be found on Twitter at @ktoerpe. This article is a preview of her presentation at WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon, the World Future Society’s conference in Chicago July 19-21, 2013.

WorldFuture 2013 Preview

Life Imitates Art: Cyborgs, Cinema, and Future Scenarios

Cresta Towers: City of the Future by digital artist Angela Harburn.

By Ramona Pringle

ANGELA HARBURN / SHUTTERSTOCK

From utopian ideals to dystopian nightmares, the narratives we create about ourselves color our visions of our futures. We tell stories. Man versus man, man versus nature, man versus himself. Falling in love, fighting demons, and overcoming obstacles. It is said that to tell stories is what makes us human; it is how we store memories and how we process new information. We understand ourselves, and the world around us, through the narratives we weave, a human truth that is documented as far back as Paleolithic times, when the images painted onto the walls of the Caves of Lascaux communicated the hardships of the hunt and issues of life, death, and survival. The stories we tell—in the form of parables and fine art, feature films, and video games—don’t serve only to document the past; these tales are our attempts to understand the present and make sense of an uncertain future. Even in the ancient caves, it is

believed that the tribal murals existed not only to document past hunting expeditions, but also to depict strategy and rituals thought to improve future hunting exploits. Now fast-forward through the Renaissance and the Inquisition, through the Great Depression and the Moon landing. We recall these moments in history through the stories that outlive them—the archive of anecdotes, history books, digital data, and lore that shapes our understanding of where we, as a species, have come from and, in turn, where we are going. But this is not the only history that shapes our culture, our foresight, and our beliefs. These moments and these movements are woven into our collective unconscious, interspersed with scenes from Blade Runner, Metropolis, and The Jetsons—fictional memories that blur the line between

real and imagined, between science and fiction, that establish in our imaginations a framework for limitless wonder and possibility. They create an ethical continuum between possibility and responsibility, between the promise of innovation and the potential implications of our actions. The relationship between art and life is cyclical: Art imitates life, and in turn life imitates art, making art an ideal catalyst for envisioning a sustainable future, as we imagine, test, and retest our visions of tomorrow. So intertwined are the imitation of life and the imitation of art that, within this cyclical pattern, it is practically impossible to pinpoint the nucleus from which present-day innovations have come forth: the scientist or the artist, the lab or the studio. From augmented reality to data

only do we create tools, we create stories, also, and those narratives shape the future. We are in a new Renaissance, where interdisciplinary collaboration is key to sustainable progress. Technologists promise a future of smart machines, but it is artists who envision the human experience in the next horizon. From Blade Runner to World of Warcraft to transhumanist fine art, we rely on narrative—on art and media—to understand the human condition, from power and ownership to love and conflict. We mourn, we dream, we celebrate, and we cannot envision a sustainable future without accounting for these pillars of the human experience. Film critic and historian Frederic Jameson has said, “In every utopia there is a dystopia, in every dystopia there is a utopia.” From history we know that there is a thin line between a singular vision for a utopian civilization and what can then materialize as a dangerous COURTESY OF RDIGITALIFE.COM totalitarian government, as was the case in World War II. Films like Blade Runner show us a fictional future where there is a thin line between technological utopia and the dystopian remnants of consumerist industrial fallout. In the quest for an idealized, utopian tomorrow, how do we recognize the possible Author Ramona Pringle with Ray Kurzweil at Kurzweil AI. “We threat of a dystopian are the species that creates tools, and those tools expand outcome, and how do our reach,” Kurzweil observes. we find hope—the promise of a utopian society—amid an ecoenvironment, our governments, our system of corporate greed, a pillaged bodies? For answers and clues, we earth, and inequality among beings? At a crossroad of utopian and dysturn to film, art, and video games, creative forms that depict a world of topian scenarios where man and matomorrow based on the facts of to- chine are intertwined, we rely on day. So while the practicalities of in- creative minds to envision a future novation might lie with the scien- we want to inhabit, and create a tists, the artists and storytellers must blueprint for the centuries to come. wrestle with the ethics, implications, and power of such new future An Uncertain Future and a visions. Blade Runner Reality Ray Kurzweil says: “We are the Tom Rand, a clean-tech advisor species that creates tools, and those tools expand our reach.” But not and venture capitalist, draws paralmining to biotech innovations, when we think of the future, we tend to think of it as something that rests solely in the hands of scientists and technologists. And yet, when we marvel at the newly possible, we speak of it as “the stuff of science fiction,” which would suggest that embedded in the process of innovation is a thread of imagination and creativity that comes from these tales of the fantastic, the incredible, and the not-yet-possible, the fodder for imagination that we commonly refer to as fiction. But perhaps fiction is really just pre-reality, and the artists, the creators of a prototype of the future. In the current momentous rhythm of exponential growth, what’s increasingly apparent is that, if we can envision something, we can create it, but we do so at the risk of not knowing the implications of these actions five, ten, and fifty years into the future. How will Innovation X impact our relationships, our cities, our

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lels between modern urban life and virtual reality: If you’re living on the twentieth floor of a condo, with air conditioning blaring, watching the news of international natural disasters on the television, and ordering fast food from takeout, you’re living in a virtual reality—that is, a fabricated world—he said in an interview for Rdigitalife, an online series I produce with Ryerson University to examine the evolving relationships between humans, values, and technology. It’s a current-day scenario that hints at science-fiction plots: people living in acclimated pods, unaware of the environmental and political ebbs and flows of the greater world. Just recently, Superstorm Sandy forced us to ask, What happens to this fabricated reality when the power goes out? What happens when the grid goes down? What happens in the wake of an environmental shift? We already know. We’ve seen these scenarios played out on screen and on the page. Unlike the antiseptic and technologically efficient worlds of earlier science fiction, more-recent sci-fi films like Blade Runner show us what film historian Peter Ruppert calls

COMPUTER EARTH / SHUTTERSTOCK

STARY STARY / SHUTTERSTOCK

Our ideas of the future are both influenced and mirrored by artists’ images. “In every utopia there is a dystopia, in every dystopia there is a utopia,” says film critic and historian Frederic Jameson.

“the grimy underside of contemporary American life, the junk and trash of a society of mass production and mass consumption, a baleful world in which the misuse of technology and greed have combined to virtually obliterate nature and natural life forms … [leaving us with] an overwhelming sense of loss: a loss of nature and natural life, the loss of identity and continuity with the past and a desire for a future; the loss of the sense of the city as a locus for community and more genuine collective activity.” But, says Ruppert, in relentlessly “exposing these intolerable conditions, these films also create a desire for alternatives.” By exposing us to probable outcomes of certain choices and behaviors, the artist, in a sense, gives us the chance at a do-over, a chance to make different decisions, with the hope of yielding a different, preferable outcome. While it might seem at first that these films present us with a vision of an inevitable and inescapable future, the truth is, they are giving us a choice and empowering us to create a future that we want to be a part of, a future that is sustainable. The vision created is a manifestation of the status quo—mass advertisement, urban decay, waste pollu-

With a possibility of the Singularity on the horizon, and the potential for artificial intelligence to surpass human intelligence within this lifetime, the artist asks, what traits do we value, not only in machines, but in ourselves? Do we value intelligence over emotion? Analysis over empathy? Data over nuance? What does this mean for our machines, and what does this mean for ourselves? “My Cyborgs are anthropomorphic,” says transmedia fine artist Michaele Jordana Berman, whose series of photorealistic digital prints, Cyborg: The Human Condition, examines the relationship between human and cyborg, man and machine, and creator and child. “I endow them with human attributes, feeling empathy for them as they are perfected in our own image to co-exist with humanity as they seek out their own moral code. The series examines power, ownership, love and conflict.” The danger is, of course, that, as machines become more lifelike, people lose their humanity; we lose sight of the value of empathy and emotion, favoring more program mable traits. But what is lost and what is gained? The artist envisions all possible scenarios, continuing to ask what it means to be human. As

tion, intolerance—in other words, the science-fiction film is less about tomorrow than it is about today. The wake-up call is clear: To create a future we want to be a part of, we need to reexamine our way of living, now. Emotional Cyborgs and Unfeeling Human Beings? Through creative practices, we explore the parallel between man’s primordial origins and our evolution as entities in the next horizon. Since the earliest renderings in marble and fresco of heroes like the biblical D avid, artists have asked what it means to be human. First, we asked that question of man in relation to his creator. Now, as man and machine begin to merge, the artist continues to ask that question, only now he asks what it means to be human, as the creator himself. Robots are the ultimate masterpiece. As the idealized images of da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man and Michelangelo’s David were humans created in God’s likeness, so we create these human clones, cyborgs, and replicants to be our counterparts and companions when the real thing is too difficult, too demanding. www.wfs.org

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MICHAELE JORDANA BERMAN

glitters. We cannot create a we teach robots to be lifefuture without addressing like, what can we learn about our own humanity? the present. We are lonely, but the huThe emotional response man intimacy we crave has triggered by these forwardbecome too difficult, says looking artworks is a feelSherry Turkle, author of ing of nostalgia—the desire Alone Together: Why We Exfor a return to a less complipect More from Technology cated time, as if that were and Less from Each Other (Bathe choice we are faced with sic Books, 2011). at present: to progress or re“People seem comforted gress. And while reality by the belief that if we might not be so black and alienate or fail each other, white, this rush of nostalgia robots will be there, prodoes speak to a need for vigrammed to provide simusionary checks and ballations of love,” says Turkle. ances. We want to hear the “Our population is aging; birds singing, we want there will be robots to take clean water to drink and care of us. Our children are uncontaminated fish in the neglected; robots will tend oceans. As we are pulled by to them. We are too exthe allure of the promise of hausted to deal with each a techno-utopian future, other in adversity; robots these desires need not be will have the energy. Robots “Cyborg-2010” from Cyborg: The Human Condition, photo paintnostalgic remnants of a bywon’t be judgmental. We ing by Michaele Jordana Berman, 2010. “My Cyborgs are gone era. anthropomorphic,” says Jordana Berman. “I endow them with will be accommodated.” These artworks, from human attributes, feeling empathy for them as they are perfected So the robot becomes the science-fiction films to fine in our own image to co-exist with humanity as they seek out their ultimate caretaker and com- own moral code.” art to video games, also ask panion, but what happens of us: What is utopia? Is it a to the humanity of the huglossy world of immaculate man? Isaac Asimov codified glass towers? Is it the ultithe laws of robotics, stating that a ro- heartache, devastation, and war to mate in modern efficiency? Or is utobot may not harm or injure a human envision the outcomes of the deci- pia a place where we get to hear the being. But as Jordana Berman’s work sions we make and the way we are joy of children’s laughter, to witness reminds us, perhaps it is not the ro- living. the beauty of untouched nature, to Technology and humanity cannot feel the empathy of our fellow bebot we need be concerned about, but his or her human maker. In an eco- be separated into distinct silos or iso- ings, and more than anything else— system where the human has be- lated conversations. As we find new the primary source of joy and ancome the ultimate creator—the ways to make our machines more in- guish in the human life—to love and maker, the programmer—the artist telligent, and essentially more hu- be loved? forces us to take accountability for man, we must also take the time to We may not be able to change the our role in the world, future and continually reexamine our own past, but we are able to change the humanity. present. trajectory of the future. By envisionWhile these futurist scenarios, ing a tomorrow that we want to be a from film to fine art, depict robots, part of, we can reverse-engineer the Writing a Blueprint for Tomorrow cyborgs, and dystopian renderings blueprint to get there. Murphy’s law, seemingly a corner- of the world to come, at its core the The story of our future is ours to stone of the human experience, work is not so much a reflection of write. ❑ states that anything that can go technology as it is a mirror on manAbout the Author wrong will go wrong. In this respect, kind. These works force us to examRamona Pringle is a newas we look to the future, we must ine our lives, decisions, and relationmedia professor at Ryerson embrace an interdisciplinary collec- ships with each other and with University and a multiplattion of stakeholders, so that we do technology today. If technological form producer currently not continue to repeat the mistakes advancements enable us to live forworking on Avatar Secrets of our past. We must turn to fine art- ever, will we see multiple wars? Will and Rdigitalife.com. E-mail ists and storytellers—from Francisco we learn from our mistakes, or is ramona@ramonapringle.com. Goya to Hieronymus Bosch, and Ste- pain and suffering just part of the This article is a preview of her presentaven Spielberg to Ridley Scott—who ebb and flow of the human experi- tion at WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the for centuries have explored the ence? These media warn us not to Next Horizon, the World Future Society’s depths and depravities of pain, get lost in the temptation of all that conference in Chicago July 19-21, 2013. 34

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WorldFuture 2013 Preview

Transition Engineering: Planning and Building the Sustainable World By Susan Krumdieck

On the way to building the sustainable world, transition engineers respond to risks, not disasters. Transition engineering will emerge as the way by which society reduces both fossil fuel use and the detrimental social and environmental impacts of industrialization. ARKELA / BIGSTOCK

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he most enduring legacy of the Brundtland Commission (1983-1987) has been a simple definition of sustainable development: “Ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.” Since that time, this definition has not been challenged, but it has also not found application in engineering practice. Although nearly all of the environmental threats identified were the result of engineered systems, the engineering profession was not mentioned in the report. It is hard to set up requirements for engineering projects that involve the moral issues of our own needs weighed against needs of others in poor countries and those in the future when they have no legal representation or economic participation. Sustainability can be effectively addressed by the emergence of a new field: transition engineering. This is a parallel of safety engineering but with a longer time scale, broader space scale, and more complex relationship scale. There is limited evidence that the philosophical, anthropological, or economic arguments of the past 40 years regarding sustainability have had a great impact on engineering education or the professional discipline. One project-based approach to sustainability that has emerged is The Natural Step (TNS), which focuses on education of people in organizations about the conditions of sustainability. The first rule of engineering is “define the problem.” It is not a great surprise that the engineering professions have spent the past 20 years essentially going about business as usual. Growth is the problem definition for engineers in industry. Like many other sustainabilitymotivated engineers, I have spent years working on “green” technologies that are perpetually 10 years away from technical or economic viability. In a few engineering fields, notably air pollution and waste management, the goal to reduce environmental and health impacts of indust r i a l p ol l u t i on h a s se e n g re a t progress. But diligent work by

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people who thought the problem was developing cost-effective green energy alternatives has not improved the overall sustainability of the non-green energy sectors. There is a sense that the engineering professions are waiting for society, and more importantly the economy, to define sustainability in ways that can be included in the requirements for development projects. Business-as-usual engineered industrial systems and products continue to increase the risks of unsustainable energy use and pollution. Now is the time for engineers to stop waiting and begin planning the transition to sustainability. As we’ve learned from safety engineering, you can’t make anything inherently safe; you can only think ahead to reduce as many risks as you can within the budget you have. This is the way we can approach sustainability. We can’t make a sustainable car, but we can think about the risks to car-based transport systems and work on changes to reduce exposure to these risks. The idea is that sustainability could one day become an element of standard practice in the same way that safety engineering has over the past 100 years. Transition engineering is proposed as the general practice of changing existing engineered systems to reduce the risks of unsustainable resource use or pollution. The engineering professions, at some point in the future, will take up transition engineering as part of standard practice. Transition engineering will have discipline-specific methods, but will be practiced across many disciplines. Reducing the Risks of Unsustainability The history of safety engineering shows that the transition to safety was initiated through conscientious engineering, not through policy leadership or economic signals. Safety engineers develop standards for new equipment and practices, then these standards are enforced by policy and regulation, and finally the economic benefits are understood. T h e c u r re n t d e b a t e s a ro u n d sustainability of energy systems tend

to focus on policy and economics, which has not delivered demon strable progress in reducing unsustainability risks. The conclusion of the argument is that currently practicing engineers can conscientiously begin the projects of transition because society values survival and can adapt to change. You don’t need to engineer for sustainability. You need to engineer to reduce and eliminate the risks of unsustainability. Now we can all get to work on the transition. Survival has three-dimensional scales of time, location, and relationship, as shown in Figure 1, “The Survival Spectrum.” Individuals survive another day or another year if their immediate habitats, transport systems, and workplaces have a good degree of safety. Human organizations and towns will survive if the supply of resources and trade goods is secure, and if they are not hit by a natural disaster or war. Security is a longer-term survival issue, on the scale of lifetimes or generations. Gradual changes in climate and global systems, both human and natural, will either drive adaptations or they will induce decline and collapse. One might even postulate a simple “Law of Survival”, which states that survival in the long term, known as sustainability, is either achieved through adaptation or it is not. Resource use, energy use, agriculture, technology, values, and behaviors adapt so that the civilization’s activity systems fit with what is available. Or they fail and are replaced by different activity systems, or different civilizations. Adaptive changes for survival represent a balance between benefit and risk. At any given time, individuals and populations have particular characteristics that are the result of cumulative historical adaptations. These characteristics include everything from language, knowledge, tradition, religion, and shared cultural values to technology, infrastructure, skills, domesticated species, and materials. There cannot be any adaptive change without taking some kind of risk. But changes that are made to a successful set of characteristics could pose a risk by changing things in un-

Figure 1: Survival Spectrum

Safety

Security

Sustainability

Lifetimes–Generations

Continuous

Territorial–Regional

Global

Organizations–Populations

Civilizations–Species

Time Daily–Annual

Location Immediate–Local

Relationship Individuals–Families

foreseen ways. Industrial history is sponded by pursuing innovation full of these unintended conse- and development in clean energy quences, and they are usually on a and clean technologies. There have different scale than the benefits. Ben- been many successful developments, efits of a change or development are like particulate emissions control on coal power plants usually immediate and alternative reand local, but the n e g a t i v e c o n s e - “Transition engineering frigerants that don’t deplete stratoquences may affect spheric ozone. people in other re- will involve changing But even with all gions, later generaexisting complex sysof the clean techtions, or other spenology improvecies, or they may tems to enable them to ments conceivable, accumulate over time on a global adapt and survive. The industrial society as we know it will scale. problem definition in have to change draAccurate modelmatically to adapt ing and communi- all fields will include to reductions in cation by transition fossil fuels conengineers who find constraints on energy sumption and deways to include and materials supplies pletion of recomplex systems sources. According c o n n e c t i o n s i n and constraints on ento the Law of Surtheir risk–benefit analysis will be vi- vironmental and social vival, the activity systems dependent tal to the successful impacts.” on continuous adaptation of our growth of conactivity systems in sumption will thus this century. Using the different time scales in either adapt to the decline of conthe Survival Spectrum, I propose sumption or they will fail. Transition engineering will inthat engineering analysis, modeling, and design can innovate adaptations volve changing existing complex to reduce the risks of unsustainabil- systems to enable them to adapt and survive. The problem definition in ity to man-made systems. all fields will include constraints on energy and materials supplies and The Role of Engineering in Survival constraints on environmental and The problems of unsustainability social impacts. Engineering to constraints is not a have been obvious for many years. The engineering professions have re- problem when only technology conwww.wfs.org

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siderations are involved. But because of the complex nature of the energy and material systems, behavior, politics, economics, and social values are also involved. How can engineers from every discipline possibly take on projects that significantly change the way things are done when there are not direct regulatory or market drivers? The answer is simple: It is the right thing to do. This is a shocking statement to make today, when the prevailing wisdom is that economic benefit is the motivation for all decision making and the reason for all actions. However, the idea that the engineering professions can take up transition engineering in response only to the signal of social expectations (and not economic or political signals) is critical. And there is precedent in the history of safety engineering, after the tragic loss of 146 workers in the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire in New York City in March 1911. There was no government policy or support in favor of the subsequent formation of the United Society of Casualty Inspectors. Its 62 founding members took action in response to the public outrage over the deadly fire because they thought it was the right thing to do. In 2000, a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration study found that every $1 spent on safety saves $4–$6, but the money saved is not the reason for good safety practice. It is the result. Professional engineers include safety in design and operating considerations because it is expected by society. The public trusts engineers to work for their safety, but within the context of sensible costs and reasonable measures. Today, on the whole, professional engineers follow safety standards, when 100 years ago they did not, and the main motivation for this shift is stated in the American Society for Safety Engineers’ code of professional conduct: The “duty to serve and protect people, property and the environment … is to be exercised with integrity, honor and dignity.” It is the right thing to do.

Table 1: Attributes of Successful Sustainability Transition Change Projects Active engagement Hands-on process Engage participation

Creative thinking tools Attention to decision making Cross-scale principles Transferable tools Beneficial synergies across scale

Link multiple time and social scales Sustainability focus Explicit sustainability criteria Integrated and sustainable outcomes

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Focus on social capital Focus on environmental integrity Combines different perspectives Holistic approach Spatial design and analysis Ecological design principles

Eco-systemic (upstream not tailpipe) solutions

Ecological/Human interaction Focus on underlying process Structured design process Life-cycle design Explicit skills development

Develop stakeholder capacity

Incorporated education Use of multiple intelligences Attention to program development

Source: Joanne Tippett et al., Progress in Planning, January 2007.

research, modeling, development, and application of state-of-the-art knowledge to bring about changes in existing engineered systems in order to improve the odds of survival by reducing risks to safety, security, and sustainability. These changes are largely adaptations of existing systems rather than additions to them. Transition engineering projects focus on reducing the risks of unsustainable energy use, resource consumption, environmental impacts, and social conditions, while developing opportunities that arise from

Transition engineering is the THE FUTURIST

Meta data structure Link multiple geographical scales

Transition Engineering Defined

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long-term secure investments and innovations. In most cases, transition engineering work is much more about working with different levels of government, businesses, and different sectors of the community to develop the understanding and knowledge about the issues and to identify and launch specific change projects. This necessarily means that transition engineering work should fit the model for achieving sustainable outcomes shown in Table 1. As with change projects in industry, many of the ca-

pabilities to design and develop the changes are already available in the engineering disciplines, but major challenges lie in managing the stakeholder communications and the changes of attitudes and expectations and the established patterns of human behavior. Several of the aspects of the model for successful sustainability transition projects involve good design. However, the engineer new to sustainability should notice that engagement and working with people is key. Also important is learning of all the people involved and developing new capabilities through the process. Conceptual Framework for Transition Engineering Figure 2 provides the overview of the steps and processes involved in transition engineering of complex systems. The basic process definitions, processes and interactions would be familiar to the change manager or the product developer, but this diagram is tailored for communication outside the engineering field. The first steps involve auditing records, monitoring, and conducting scientific investigation to understand where the problems have developed. Scenario thinking is used to explore possible future trends and to identify unacceptable risks of continuing business as usual without remedial changes. The fourth step, generating pathbreak concepts, is mostly the work of research and innovation, but in the case of safety engineering may have also included expression of a key idea, the preventability of failures— e.g., deaths in factory fires. The trigger in the case of factory worker safety was the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire tragedy. Similar trigger events can be traced for other safety areas and security initiatives. Back-casting points out what could have been done differently and what measures would most immediately reduce safety risks. Once on the path of preventing injury and death, the safety engineering experience shows that progress toward a safe workplace involves many types of proj-

Figure 2: Transition Engineering of Complex Systems

Scenarios

Now

5 6

Change Projects

Triggers

1 Past Trends

Backcasting Identify and model opportunities, barriers, technologies, innovations

Transition Policy/regulation, infrastructure, technology, products, business, education, information

Path-Break System concepts

ects in all types of complex situa- plex system: The river flows 1,320 tions. However, we also see that the km through nine countries and is the progress can be rapid and the transi- major transportation corridor for tion remarkable when the engineer- western Europe. Recently, local and ing is done from a leadership posi- regional scales have been integrated tion in response to social outrage into the traditionally more top-down over a failure in the existing system. management of the Rhine River waThe final part of the transition is the ter resource in Germany. Through inenforcement of the new standards, creasing participation, local staketraining, and equipment through holders and the general public are recognizing policy and regulation. their own roles The transition proin protecting the cess can occur organi- “How can engineers water resources cally after a disaster that form an imevent triggers action. from every discipline part of But clearly the point possibly take on proj- portant the quality of of transition engilife and econeering (like safety ects that significantly nomic activity engineering) is to perfor 58 million form risk analysis to change the way things people. identify potential diare done when there The Rhine sasters before they ocRiver has a long cur, and then proceed are not direct regulahistory of being through the processes severely exof engagement, inte- tory or market drivers? gration, and engi- The answer is simple: It ploited for navigation and as neering of eco-systemic solutions that is the right thing to do.” both a source of water supply can be implemented and a place for through change projwaste disposal for industries and citects. ies. By the 1970s, the river was declared virtually biologically dead by Examples of Transition scientists in Germany. In 1986, a fire Engineering Development at the Sandoz chemical plant in Basel Natural hazards engineering and en- discharged large amounts of detervironmental engineering are two ex- gent into the river, resulting in masamples of fields where transition en- sive fish kills. This disaster provided the trigger gineering has been working. The Rhine River basin is a com- point for public outrage over the www.wfs.org

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condition of the river, and the Rhine not been studied in transportation Action Plan was developed to set a engineering. In the past (Step 1 in Figure 2), number of targets to reduce pollution discharge from factories and in- research demonstrating the adverse crease biodiversity. Setting discharge health effects of lead exposure and limits was an effective way to get the urban smog have led to removal of change projects under way at the lead from fuel and to the developchemical processing and manufac- ment of emission control systems— decidedly a “tailpipe” solution. The turing plants. Clearly it was possible to do the OPEC oil embargo and oil shortages research and development needed to in the 1970s spurred development of reengineer the industrial operations more fuel-efficient vehicles. Thus, to dramatically reduce pollution dis- there have been some reactive charge, but the investment in the changes to past triggers, but the inchange projects required the trigger herent unsustainability of the fossilof a disaster and the public outrage. fueled transportation systems of the Over the past several decades, the world make this an attractive subject field of environmental engineering for study. Interestingly, there is a discipline has advanced as a discipline. Research and development of green of sustainable transportation engineerprocessing and manufacturing is ing. Its main objectives are to denow often carried out in response to velop public transport and encourage behavioral change, so that travel risks rather than disasters. While industrial discharges into demand can continuously increase. the Rhine have been greatly reduced, The objective of sustainable transportation engipolluted flows from neering is managfarmland have ining congestion, creased with indus- “Survival is an absowhich is seen to trial farming prachave negative tices, and contami- lute condition defined economic imn a t e d r a i n w a t e r by its failure, not by pacts, increase air discharge from urpollution, and ban areas is limiting any particular characcause public outthe full recovery of rage. Defining the river. The inte- teristics. It is accomfor grated management plished by the mecha- sustainability transportation for processes that have modern urban developed to ad- nism of adaptation.” areas and freight dress the industrial systems is defidischarges are now nitely a problem. being employed to It is not difficult to understand the identify risks, develop solutions, and find ways to economically imple- risks to the current transportation ment the changes in agriculture and systems (Step 2). Oil-supply disrupurban wastewater without having to tion represents the biggest risk to the reliability of transportation and the experience a disaster first. Our research group has also been activities that depend on transportafollowing the processes for transition tion. Fossil carbon emissions to the engineering in transportation. Safety atmosphere; conflict over control of engineering in transportation sys- oil supplies; environmental damage tems is a mature field; it advances in from oil extraction, refining, and oil response to disasters in order to spills; and eventual depletion of the meet regulatory requirements, and affordable oil and bitumen resources because there are engineers who to run the existing transport systems think it is the right thing to do. all pose risks to the continuity or Research and development for emis- survival of people, businesses, and sions reduction has been addressing essential activity systems and trade health risks to people in densely networks. The most critical risks and issues populated cities for several decades. However, the risks of peak and de- arise from the profligate and exclucline of conventional oil supply have sive use of fossil oil in transport and 40

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economic systems that have almost no resilience to reduced supply. When we examine future scenarios (Step 3), we reach the same conclusions as many other analysts. The era of cheap oil is coming to an end, and there are no alternative fuels that can substitute for even a small fraction of the declining oil supply. Oil resources such as tar sands and coal conversion to liquids have much higher environmental impacts, are increasingly expensive, and have lower energy returns on investment. New vehicle uptake has a much longer response time than oil-supply disruptions or price spikes. Any future scenario that has continued growth of travel demand and does not involve reduction of demand for fossil transport fuels would still face serious reliability and sustainability risks. The path-break concept generation process (Step 4) involves analyzing the existing urban form to assess the adaptive capacity of the population and the minimum energy footprint of the underlying geography. The travel-adaptive capacity is assessed by a novel personal travel audit and mode option survey method. The goal is quantitative assessment of a range of policy, development, investment, infrastructure, and technology options to reduce fuel use over time to mitigate the fuel-supply risks. The backcasting and re-visioning (Step 5) can be facilitated by conducting a strategic analysis of complex systems. This method recognizes that all of the stakeholders have a range of ideas about development options. The analyst creates a matrix of these possibilities, calculates the energy-demand-reduction potential, and assesses the costs and the risks to produce the matrix of opportunities. This method has been used successfully in a transition engineering project for the City of Dunedin in New Zealand. The method takes what seem to be untenable or “wicked” problems of unsustainable systems and provides viable and attractive development options. The process of initiating (Step 6) and carrying out the identified options (Step 7) depends on well- designed active engagement pro-

For Further Reading: Papers by Susan Krumdieck Dale, M., S. Krumdieck, P. Bodger, “Net Energy Yield from Production of Conventional Oil,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 11 (2011) 7095 -7102. Krumdieck, S., M. Dale, S. Page, “Design and Implementation of a Community Based Sustainable Development Action Research Method,” Social Business, Vol. 2 (2012) 291-337. Krumdieck, S., and A. Hamm, “Strategic Analysis Methodology for Energy Systems with Remote Island Case Study,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37,9 (2009) 3301-3313. Krumdieck, S., S. Page, A. Dantas, “Urban Form and Long Term Fuel Supply Decline: A Method to Investigate the Peak Oil Risks to Essential Activities,” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 44 (2010) 306-322. Rendall, S., S. Page, F. Reitsma, E. van Houten, S. Krumdieck, “Quantifying Transport Resilience: Active Mode Accessibility,” Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2242 (2011) 72-80. Watcharasukarn, M., S. Krumdieck, R. Green, and A. Dantas, “Researching Travel Behavior and Adaptability: Using a Virtual Reality Role-Playing Game,” Simulation & Gaming, Vol. 42, No. 1 (2011) 100-117. http://dx.doi .org/10.1177/1046878110366070 Watcharasukarn, M., S. Krumdieck, S. Page, “Virtual Reality Simulation Game Approach to Investigate Transport Adaptive Capacity for Peak Oil Planning,” Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 46 (2012) 348–367.

cesses. This involves carrying out the integrated management approach with the participant engagement as illustrated earlier in Table 1. With students and post-doc researchers from the group, I have conducted a workshop with a group of 52 participants in the small town of Oamaru, New Zealand, to develop community-transition projects. The Transitionscape workshop was designed according to the model in Table 1 and was successful in generating several long-running projects in the community that increased resilience to oil-supply issues. A new trigger event for reducing oil consumption may have occurred on April 20, 2010, when an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil platform initiated one of the worst environmental disasters in the history of fossil fuel production. There is no question that oil spills, flaring, and groundwater pollution have been continuous and locally d isastrous over the past 70 years. Until this point, like factory worker deaths in 1911, these environmental disasters were the price of progress and were tolerated in the face of powerful business and political interests. Hopefully, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill was a big enough disaster, and a larger one—like a nuclear power plant meltdown, or massive environmental destruction from tar sand mining and processing—will not be required as the trigger for the

initiation of a transition to sustainable energy.

and in particular preventable failures, is the top priority for transition engineering projects. Already, critical transition engineering projects today are reducing energy and materials demands in order to improve resilience and mitigate risks. Engineers in all disciplines could begin working on these projects according to the same drivers as safety engineers—because it needs doing. Waiting for government leaders to find solutions or for the market to send the right signals would present a high risk of system failure—otherwise known as collapse. ❑

Transition Engineering for Long‑Term Survival Transition engineering is proposed as a new field that addresses the long-term survival of complex, democratic, industrial societies. Transition engineering has begun to emerge in response to realizations of environmental degradation and resource depletion. Survival is an absolute condition defined by its failure, not by any particular characteristics. It is accomplished by the mechanism of adaptation. Just like safety, sustainability cannot be defined except by failures, but engineering can reduce the risks to survival by preventing failures. The historical perspective on safety illustrates how economic or market signals are important in normal operation, but not effective or sufficient signals for survival. Transition engineering focuses on identifying unsustainable aspects of current systems, assessing the risks posed by those aspects, and researching and developing ways to mitigate and prevent systemic failures through adaptations. No further time should be wasted trying to define sustainability, because the Survival Spectrum shows how addressing unsustainability, www.wfs.org

About the Author Susan Krumdieck is an associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. She will be participating (online) in a panel on this topic at WorldFuture 2013 in Chicago. She may be contacted at susan.krumdieck@ canterbury.ac.nz. This article draws from a paper she presented at the 2011 meeting of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and used with permission of ASME, www.asme.org. The author would like to acknowledge the more than 20 postgraduate students and the many colleagues who over the past 12 years have participated in sustainability transition research with so much passion and commitment.

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Anticipatory Governance:

Winning the Future By Leon S. Fuerth with Evan M. H. Faber

f the United States is to remain a well-functioning republic and a prosperous nation, the government cannot rely indefinitely on crisis management, no matter how adroit. We must get ahead of events or we risk being overtaken by them. In short, we must improve our management systems to meet today’s accelerating and complex challenges. The Project on Forward Engagement’s work on anticipatory govern ance responds to this need by introducing three critical elements to existing executive-branch functions: 1. Foresight-Policy Integration— that is, foresight fused to policy analysis. Anticipatory governance offers a system for integrating fore-

The Project on Forward Engagement offers a three-part strategy for enabling policy makers to cope with accelerating change and complex challenges. Rather than relying on crisis management, anticipatory governance creates a structure for information collection and analysis that is long-ranged, strategic, mission-focused, holistic, and connected to policy making that gets us ahead of events. sight into the way we create and execute national policies, including anticipation of upcoming challenges and opportunities as well as disciplined analysis of the long-range consequences of today’s decisions. 2. Networked Governance for mission-based management and budgeting; a networked system for orchestrating whole-of-government management and budgeting to mission, including intensive coordination of our strategies and our assets applied over time. 3. Feedback for Applied Learning.

Feedback enables us to monitor and adjust policy relative to initial expectations. Anticipatory governance creates a feedback system to constantly

measure consequence against expectations as a way to learn from experience and refresh policy. This article describes suggested practical upgrades to executive branch systems. These upgrades are specifically designed to be light on resources, compatible with the existing structures and processes of government, and require no congressional action: They can be executed fully under customary presidential authorities. All proposals were vetted by volunteer panels of current and former senior officials.

The Problem: Foresight for Public Institutions In a well-functioning republic, leaders need time for deliberation before making decisions. In the United States, the Constitution was designed to make sure that this time would be protected. Today, the issues that decision makers deal with are increasingly fast-moving and complex. They involve concurrent interactions among events across multiple dimensions of governance. They cross jurisdictional and bureaucratic boundaries. They cannot be broken apart and solved piece by piece. And, rather than stabilizing into permanent solutions, they morph into new problems that have to be continually managed. This pattern profoundly challenges the adaptive capacity of government systems that are essentially modeled on the early industrial period: vertical, hierarchical, segmented, mechanical, and sluggish. A nineteenth-century government is simply not built to handle twentyfirst-century challenges. This handicap contributes to a perception of America being in decline. Decline is not inevitable, but we have reached a moment of choice: Do we seize this moment to upgrade government for the challenges and opportunities of this century, or do we continue to operate with a system designed for an era gone by?

The Proposal: Initiatives for Anticipatory Governance The Project on Forward Engagement’s report, Anticipatory Govern ance: Practical Upgrades, seeks to address this tension with upgrades to existing systems in the executive branch (i.e., the offices of the president and vice president, the Cabinet, and other federal agencies). It proposes three basic sets of changes: integrating foresight and policy, networking governance, and using feedback for applied learning. This study is about the operations of governance, not policies. The recommendations made in Anticipatory Governance are practical and can be approached on a gradual, modular basis. They do not require

House to keep track of the consequences of its own policies, so as to be more responsive to facts about what is happening, rather than projections of what was supposed to happen after decisions were made.

new “brick and mortar” institutions or large expenditure of resources; they intentionally leverage existing personnel and processes under new arrangements in order to strengthen the executive branch. These upgrades are not a panacea, but they are short-cut approaches for beginning to adapt existing U.S. government systems and processes to be more anticipatory, adaptive, and resilient. The skills required to take these steps already exist in government, and regardless, they can be taught. At stake is not only much-needed improvement in conducting the business of government, but also a tremendous potential for legacy: to improve the government’s ability to think and act strategically in a vastly changed world. Anticipatory governance would establish, in the White House, a capacity to mobilize and coordinate resources in a way that begins with a concept of managing-to-mission as the organizing principle for operations. It would also enable the White

Anticipatory Governance: An Overview of Implementing Foresight in Government Anticipatory governance is a systems-based approach for enabling governance to cope with accelerating, complex forms of change. Anticipatory governance is a “systems of systems” comprising a disciplined foresight-policy linkage, networked management and budgeting to mission, and feedback systems to monitor and adjust. Anticipatory governance would register and track events that are just barely visible at the event horizon; it would self-organize to deal with the unexpected and the discontinuous; and it would adjust rapidly to the interactions between our policies and our problems.

Problem Types and Implications “Acceleration” and “complexity” have become common catch phrases for describing today’s challenges, but they are real phenomena that have profound meaning—and technical implications—for the way we understand issues and organize policy responses. “COMPLICATED” PROBLEMS • Originate from isolated causes that are clearly identifiable and fall within distinct bureaucratic categories. • Can be dissected into isolated elements, addressed, and pieced back together. • Consequences are generally proportionate to their causes (for every input, there is a proportionate output). • Fixtures can be put in place for permanent solutions. “COMPLEX” or “WICKED” PROBLEMS • Result from concurrent interactions among multiple systems of events, and they erode the customary boundaries that differentiate bureaucratic concepts and missions. • Cannot be broken apart and solved piece by piece. They must be understood and addressed as a system. • Do not automatically stabilize, but intrinsically unravel into chaos if not systemically managed. • Cannot be permanently solved. Instead, they morph into new problems as the result of interventions to deal with them.

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OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO BY PETE SOUZA

In the Oval Office, FBI Director Robert Mueller (center right), Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (far left) and other security advisors brief President Barack Obama (foreground, right) following the April 15, 2013, Boston Marathon explosions. A goal of anticipatory governance is to reduce susceptibility to future “black swans” such as these types of attacks.

tural, and partly a matter of inadequate systems design. The political and cultural issues are very difficult to deal with, but mechanisms can be put in place to ensure that foresight and policy come together by design, rather than by chance. These initiatives focus on ways to institutionalize an “interface” that can integrate foresight into the policy process. • Organizing a Foresight System: An organized, ongoing, and disciplined foresight process would provide a dedicated focus on the long term. It would bring into policy makers’ line of sight what is developing outside of their immediate vision, as well as the implications of current actions on future outcomes. One option for organizing a foresight system is the creation of a foresight “fusion cell,” a sort of skunkworks operation with a small staff devoted to producing original foresight. Another option is a virtual organization comprising personnel operating in their existing government planning organizations. Other options include a Presidential Advisory Council for Foresight and periodic foresight retreats. • Brokering between Foresight

1. Foresight and Policy Integration

Foresight should be a systematized and actionable component of the policy process. It is the disciplined analysis of alternative futures. Foresight is not prediction. It is not vision, and it is not intelligence. It is a distinct process of monitoring prospective oncoming events, analyzing potential implications, simulating alternative courses of action, asking unasked questions, and issuing timely warnings to avert a risk or seize an opportunity. As a disciplined process, organized foresight offers a means to simulate actions that would otherwise have to be tested against reality, where the consequences of error are irrevocable. A foresight-generating and horizon-scanning system can help governments detect trends and weak signals, visualize alternative futures, and foster better outcomes. The United States lacks such a system at the national level. There are multiple concepts for organizing foresight into a specific stream of information available to policy makers but no mechanism exists for bringing foresight and policy making into an effective relationship. This problem is partly political, partly cul44

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and Policy: Foresight producers do

not necessarily think like policy makers, and vice versa, so brokering between foresight and policy will require a dedicated staff to provide the critical link between these functions. Assigning staff members to maintain a stream of foresight information as part of the data flow to officials is one approach to connecting foresight to policy. Similarly, ad hoc “translation teams” could improve communication between those who produce foresight information and those who consume it. • Incentivizing Foresight: Foresight ultimately requires a demand signal. When the president and senior officials demand foresight, this creates an incentive within the bureaucracy to produce it and integrate it with current analysis. Because foresight requires longerrange analysis, it tends to rely on assessment of hypotheticals. This kind of analysis is not regularly encouraged because it is speculative and may seem to have little bearing on immediate issues or decisions. But hypotheticals-based analysis should be mandated. Insights about the future should be tied to actions that can be taken to seize an opportunity

or avoid a threat, and foresightbased reporting should be tied to policy and to budget. Incentivizing foresight might be done through awards for analysis that leads to opportunities being seized (or risks averted). Standards used in evaluating individuals for promotion might include their use of foresight and long-range considerations in their work. And those who offer longrange assessments that challenge current thinking should be protected. • Training Professionals for Foresight: New leadership skills are required for twenty-first-century government professionals, and government especially needs leaders who are proficient in foresight. Civil servants, political appointees, and others need to be trained to think in a disciplined way about long-range issues and future contingencies. Among the options for foresight training in government are crash courses for senior officials and appointees, adding foresight into the curricula at major government training institutions, including foresight proficiency and use of foresight methods in the promotion standards for civil servants, and exposing senior leadership to foresight through short workshops.

mission” rather than only by jurisdiction, they could bring resources to bear with greater precision. Networked governance can also enable the president to acquire much greater situational awareness of the operations of government. These initiatives could be put into place rapidly by altering operations within the White House and the Cabinet. • Networking the Strategy/Policy Planning Offices: Every Cabinetlevel agency has a policy planning unit, but these offices have their own cultures and missions that are generally independent of one another. Strategies for networking these otherwise siloed activities, which would improve each department’s “whole picture” of major issues, include holding regular meetings of policy planning directors and creating ad-hoc mission-based teams of policy planners and of regional and functional bureaus. These teams would be useful for early spotting of events, and for discussion and review of possible responses. • Leveraging the Deputies’ Com-

2. Networked Governance

Networked governance is needed to support whole-of-government planning and execution. Complex challenges require organizational innovation, and networks are the organizational response to complexity. Government is now organized on the basis of “best practices” from the age of the vertically integrated American corporation. This system is ill-suited for the successful management of policies that address complex issues. Flattened, networked organizational structures can facilitate rapid flow of information and can thus serve as the basis for a smarter and more prescient bureaucracy. Networks can help to engage the full resources of government in the form of adjustable groupings, and in arrangements that encourage a high degree of initiative, although responsive to overall strategic guidance from the president. Deep integration of the government would be a lengthy process requiring enabling legislation. Agencies could plan and operate more strategically based on “management-to-mission” as the organizing principle of policy formation and e x e c u t i o n . B y “ b u d g e t i n g - t o -

mittee and Interagency Policy Committee Processes: The Deputies’

Committee represents departmental viewpoints in dealing with nationallevel issues. The deputies could thus

OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO BY PETE SOUZA

President Barack Obama (foreground, center) demonstrates a facility with networking by participating in a live Twitter question-and-answer session at the White House in December 2012. Part of improving government’s anticipatory capabilities will include enhancing all forms of networking between agencies and among staffers tasked with foresight and the policy advisors to whom they report.

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Forward Engagement and Anticipatory Governance The term Forward Engagement® originally appeared as part of Vice President Al Gore’s foreign-policy platform in 2000, and was used in two of the vice president’s speeches: once at the United Nations Security Council in the course of its first session of the new millennium, and once six months later at a speech in Boston before an international conference of newspaper editors. It became the subject of the Project on Forward Engagement at George Washington University in 2001. The term Anticipatory Governance was inspired by an e‑mail message from former student and research assistant Neil Padukone in December 2008, writing about needed changes in the intelligence function in India following the deadly Mumbai attacks, and it also appears in various applications such as Clement Bezold’s “Anticipatory Democracy,” and in association with managing nanotechnology. It is used here as a descriptor for proposed modifications to systems in the executive branch of the government of the United States.

leadership teams to synchronize individual agencies on a mission-oriented basis. This would combine, at the top level, the ability to coordinate planning and execution. For this to happen, however, the president must lay out expectations for how secretaries should operate— articulate this change and enforce it. Options for engaging the Cabinet include ad-hoc or formal interagency task forces and subgroups. A current example of this might be the Export Promotion Cabinet, which is a subcabinet group focused on trade policy. The secretaries could offer incentives for agencies to contribute to national-level missions in ways that

serve as a nucleus for mission- oriented, cross-disciplinary policy formulation. They could hold regularly scheduled foresight/mission meetings to focus on prioritized issues that require long-range thinking and proactive attention. Occasional retreats could allow for whole-ofgovernment operation and longrange considerations. The Interagency Policy Committee for strategy could serve as a “tiger team” to coordinate the broad scope of major interagency missions, priority balancing, and incorporation of long-range considerations. • Engaging the Cabinet Strategically: The Cabinet can organize as

otherwise deviate from their standard routines. And Cabinet officials could participate in annual retreats that focus on assessing whole-ofgovernment missions and exploring alternative futures. • Networking Integrators for Cross-Agency Missions: Currently, about 35 officials distributed across the executive branch serve in positions known as “czars” responsible for coordinating complex national missions. Better terms for this role would be integrators or coordinators. Collectively, these integrators have system-wide knowledge about where government is, where it is headed, and what can be done to convert the concept of whole-ofgovernment into operational reality. Their collective knowledge can be tapped, which could be extremely important for helping the president achieve overall system coherence, but currently there is no system for doing so. Options for networking these integrators include organizing them into strategic groupings that come together for systematic consultation and cross-fertilization of ongoing processes. Such networks would allow them to rapidly develop ways to work around impediments to coordinated action, both within their own organizations and among them. • Budgeting for Strategic Impact: continued on page 48 USDA PHOTO BY LANCE CHEUNG

Working together: “Farm to Fly 2.0.” A memorandum of understanding to develop biofuels for the aviation industry is signed by U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (left), and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, April 15, 2013. Breaking down departmental silos and connecting foresight to policy are goals of anticipatory governance.

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Anticipating Future Contingencies

he goal of anticipatory governance—merging foresight with policy—is to reduce a people’s susceptibility to future contingencies (aka “wild cards” or “black swans”). Other forms of major change come as the result of the accumulation of trends, which foresight should help to identify at the “horizon” line. Examples include: • Hurricane Katrina, 2005: There was knowledge going back decades that the levee system protecting New Orleans was inadequate, and the efforts to get attention paid to it were ignored. • The Financial Crisis of 2008: This crisis took decades to put it in place, and there were plenty of warning signs that went ignored. • BP Oil Well Failure, 2010: Reports on the causes of the Deepwater Horizon spill indicate problems with safety and maintenance procedures involving BP and its subcontractors, which should have been picked up by government regulatory systems. • The Arab Spring, 2011: We all knew about the youth bulge, unemployment rates, and rising commodity prices, but no mechanism exists to consider the convergence of such trends and to evaluate assumptions and alternative possibilities. • Fukushima, 2011: No one can predict the particulars of a tsunami, but the safety systems in the reactors skimped on backup and in effect had failure built into them under conditions more extreme than allowed for by the design. Black swans on the horizon include: • Evolutionary secession produces unintended consequences. Science and technology now permit us to dictate the evolution of our species and the planet. While regulatory regimes can respond to near-term risks, incremental advances are building in ways that pose medium- and long-range risks and opportunities for human destiny. Desired and undesired outcomes have direct relevance to immediate decisions in policy areas such as research and development, trade, regulation, and health care. • Environmental disruptions demand sudden adaptation. Climate change poses a threat to the Earth’s ability to sustain human affairs as we have long practiced them. We may be either approaching

or have already passed an irreversible threshold; the window for preventative or adaptive action required across myriad aspects of governance is closing, while the debate continues regarding whether or not this even requires attention. • Labor force up-ended by “disruptive technologies.” Watson, the Jeopardy! game show winner, changed the question from if to when automated machines will be able to replace “white collar” jobs previously only doable by humans. Meanwhile, additive (or “digital”) manufacturing promises cheap, durable, lightweight, custom-made products available instantly. We know from experience that automation can build (China) or disaggregate (U.S.) lab o r s y s t e m s . H o w d o t h e Wa t s o n a n d manufacturing revolutions impact U.S. strategy for the future of U.S. labor, commerce, and education? • Social media transform U.S. governance. Online social networks have catapulted countries into revolution, and the clock may be ticking on their breakout impact on U.S. governance. Social media give voice to anyone, thereby posing meaningful challenges to a representative form of democracy not built for direct participation. U.S. policy on information transparency abroad will have implications for our own domestic politics. Will we shape or be shaped by this technology? • Demographic shifts present new market opportunities. Population profiles across the globe are shifting dramatically toward both old age and urbanization. These trends are more or less locked-in: They will play themselves out over several decades, impacting the goods and services that these societies will require (and who will supply them), and therefore the economic strategies of nations. There will be changed mixes of domestically created products and of needs for imports, including imports based on a combination of increasing disposable income and more sophisticated tastes for everything from food to furniture to health care. How will these changes bear on our future market opportunities for goods and services and on the robustness of present trade arrangements in the future? —Leon S. Fuerth, with Evan M. H. Faber

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nized by showing direct relevance to each other, with clear progression from broad strategy down to programmatic detail. Their due dates should be aligned to promote a strategic progression, and they should have parallel requirements for longrange analysis, linking national strategy with foresight. And they should be “living documents”—by eliminating hard copies of the reports and posting them online, the strategy reports can be updated regularly and cross-referenced with hyperlinks to other documents. • Systematizing Strategic Priorities: Government must set priorities in order to rationally allocate time and resources, but priority-setting

continued from page 46 The disconnect between long-range strategy and the budget process inhibits government’s ability to shape a budget that enhances strategic priorities. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) could be the gravitational field that aligns strategic planning with budget, and there is now currently an effort under way based at OMB to enhance agency and cross-agency priority setting as a function of budgeting and strategy. This process could be supplemented by creating a small strategy shop inside of OMB that would scan for signals of pending funding requests (such as in the case of a major event

“Alternative forms of dialogue are needed. Options include communicating at the strategic level; the resources needed for complex national priorities would be analyzed in terms of strategy and organized according to mission rather than jurisdiction.” can produce an artificial hierarchy that flattens out real differences of relative importance. What is needed is parallel processing across government, synchronized around a common set of national priorities as articulated by presidential intent. There is no perfect balance, because resources are finite. Tradeoffs are inescapable. Starting with presidential intent, systemizing strategic priorities means that objectives should be clearly articulated. The president should lay out major goals, assigning specific roles and management instructions, and present these at Cabinet-level meetings: “The top priorities are X, Y, Z.” To oversee these priorities and provide day-to-day guidance on synchronization, a Chief Management Officer for Priority Management could be named who has authority to interpret presidential intent.

or development), triggering the process of studying how responses could be funded. Also, because there are many possible futures, there should be alternative budgets—that is, alternative means for addressing a range of contingencies, including fiscal shocks. America’s destiny is shaped by its budget, yet there is no mechanism for converting alternative visualizations of the American future and alternative constructs of the budget. • Synchronizing National Strategy: Any strategy is a plan for imposing a predetermined outcome on a complex system. But complexity theory challenges this notion at a basic level: Any action designed to solve a problem in a complex system simply causes the problem to mutate. Grand strategies do not yield permanent stability. Nevertheless, it is possible to synchronize strategic behavior across the federal government. Strategy reports could be synchro48

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• Reformatting the Dialogue with Congress: The current congressional

committee system co-evolved with the legacy systems of governance in the executive branch. Organization tends to be based on turf rather than overall mission, and that tendency is amplified by partisanship. While the proposals for anticipatory govern ance outlined here could be implemented without congressional approval, such changes are likely to arouse suspicion within Congress over matters of jurisdiction and oversight. Alternative forms of dialogue are needed. Options include communicating at the strategic level; the resources needed for complex national priorities would be analyzed in terms of strategy and organized according to mission rather than jurisdiction. Another option is a component-level implementation process, or CLIP. Currently, long-term projects that are meant to shape the future and that cost billions of dollars may be canceled with nothing to show. A better approach (as suggested by students of the Forward Engagement course taught at George Washington University) is to break large projects down into manageable chunks that are independently valuable. CLIP is a way to analyze these chunks and their implications for meeting the long-term goals through short-term legislative steps. CLIP thus reduces political risks for introducing legislation for projects whose results may not be seen for decades. These suggestions would supplement, not circumvent, the existing congressional oversight system.

3. Feedback for Applied Learning The third requirement for anticipatory governance is feedback systems that monitor performance and speed up learning from results. Every policy—no matter how impeccable or creative at the time of its creation—eventually deteriorates as circumstances change. At the national level, there is not a comprehensive system for monitoring the vitality or tracking the consequences of policies once they are in the process of execution, although there are

such efforts for some individual national priorities and programs. Feedback systems can serve as a basis for ongoing evaluation, re assessment, and recalibration of policies in order to prevent breakdowns and system failures that routinely go undetected until it is too late. Applied to policy, feedback can measure results against estimates, sustain accountability and control in a networked system, and improve the conduct of ongoing policies. Injecting feedback into foresight mechanisms can help improve the design of policy in the future. These initiatives focus on ways to institutionalize these kinds of feedback as a continuous process. • Identifying Explicit Feedback

Precepts to Track Policy Execution:

Every policy submitted for approval should include several precepts, including a statement of key assumptions, a definition of expectations, information streams to be monitored, performance indicators, the rate at which continuous monitoring will occur, points of responsibility and accountability, and a provisional date for diagnostic review of the policy. That date would be built into the White House calendar. • Establishing a Venue for Feedback: A senior White House official, with light staff support, could be assigned to oversee the implementation of feedback processes for major policies. Unlike the chief of staff, whose attention is on policy, this individual would be the point person for management, maintaining awareness of the full scope of government operations and coordinating its assets and processes. • Continuously Routing Triggered Indicators: Signs of policy deterioration or of circumstances arising to prevent a policy’s execution would be monitored so that the coordinator in charge could provide early warning, routing it to the White House process manager or to the senior director. • Diagnostic Reviews of Consequences: Finally, all major policies should undergo routine diagnostic review to check for signs of policy deterioration. Both internal and external auditing groups should conduct the reviews in parallel. Officials

in charge of implementation (such as White House senior directors) should maintain a scorecard for selfreporting. And a summary report should be conducted that details the evolution of the policy in response to feedback.

ability to think and act strategically in a vastly changed world. The key is to think big, start small, fail cheap, and make adaptations along the way. ❑ About the Authors Leon S. Fuerth served the U.S. government for more than three decades, including 11 years as a Foreign Service Officer, 14 years on Capitol Hill, and eight years in the White House as the national security advisor to Vice President Al Gore. He has served as a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National Defense University and is currently a research professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, where he directs the Project on Forward Engagement. Evan M. H. Faber was the research assistant and executive associate with the Project on Forward Engagement, 2008-2013, and continues to focus on the nexus of foresight and governance. He has a BA in Philosophy and an MA in International Science and Technology Policy. This article draws from their report Anticipatory Governance: Practical Upgrades, which may be read or downloaded online from Forward Engagement, http://forwardengagement.org/images/stories/anticipatory_governance_practical_upgrades.pdf

Conclusion: Moving Forward with Anticipatory Governance The obstacles to the government’s ability to act are deeply rooted in its structures: the deliberately designed tension between the executive and legislative branches, the vertical and functional divisions of departments and agencies, and the extraordinarily cumbersome processes by which decisions such as budgeting are channeled. The best chance is to make limited improvements in operations at the White House level, and to leverage these changes to improve the performance of government as a whole; this will open the door to broader transformation of government. There are a number of efforts under way to implement changes such as those discussed in the report. Offices in the White House are working to unify strategy and policy planning across government, as well as to more closely tie strategy to budget. There are efforts in the U.S. intelligence community to take a more anticipatory approach. The current administration has made efforts to take a mission-focused approach to issues like trade promotion, and Cabinet officials as well as deputies are working in mission-focused teams and using feedback indicators to track outcomes of various national priorities. These efforts are a strong start, and they need to be strengthened and supported. Policy makers take their cues from the president. If this is prioritized at the top, it will be taken seriously. Transition periods between administrations can be used to inaugurate systems changes. The time between elections should be used to think them through and to experiment with new ideas. At stake is not only much-needed improvement in conducting the business of government, but also a tremendous potential for legacy: to improve the government’s www.wfs.org

About the Project on Forward Engagement® The Project on Forward Engagement was established in 2001 by Leon Fuerth to explore methods for incorporating systematic foresight into the U.S. federal policy process, and for configuring government systems to deal with challenges that are “complex,” rather than just “complicated.” The Project is based at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University, and has been supported by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The National Defense University, The George Washington University, and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Analysis, opinions, and proposals produced by the Project and contained herein do not represent the views or opinions of any of its supporting institutions. The Project on Forward Engagement is nonpartisan, not for profit, and policy neutral. The Project is exclusively concerned with the systems and processes by which policy is produced and implemented. More information is available at www .forwardengagement.org.

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S P E C I A L

A D V E R T I S I N G

S E C T I O N

CONSULTANTS AND SERVICES

listing of consulting futurists. For information about being listed in the directory, published in every issue of THE FUTURIST and available on the Web at www.wfs.org, call Jeff Cornish toll free at 1-800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274, or fax 301-951-0394.

Karl Albrecht International

Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking

San Diego, CA U.S.A. Phone: 858-576-1500 E-mail: futures@KarlAlbrecht.com Web: KarlAlbrecht.com Contact: Dr. Karl Albrecht Conference Keynote: “Possibilities: Getting the Future You Deserve — Survival Secrets of the World’s Oldest Companies.”

46 B/4 Jerusalem St., Kfar Saba, Israel 44369 Phone: 972-54-558-7940 Fax: 972-9-766965 Web: www.futurist-thinking.co.il E-mail: bisk@futurist-thinking.co.il Contact: Tsvi Bisk Strategic futurism: “Getting from Here to There” (Keynote speaker) Jewish, Mid-East and Mediterranean Futures (consulting).

Alsek Research Economic Futures

Christensen Associates, Inc.

7650 S. McClintoch Dr., #103-233 Tempe, AZ 85284 Phone: 480-225-2507 E-mail: jfoltz@alsekresearch.com Web: www.alsekresearch.com Contact: Joan Foltz Keynotes, workshops, and anticipatory analysis of global markets, investing, and business structures. Author of Market Whipped: And Not By Choice.

8168 Manitoba St., No. 2, Playa Del Ray, CA 90293-8291 Phone: 310-578-0405 Fax: 310-578-0455 E-mail: chris@camcinc.com Web: www.camcinc.com Contact: Chris Christensen, CMC Avoid devastating surprises! Exploit ANY future! Stimulating and entertaining keynotes, workshops, assessments, and consulting.

Alternative Futures Associates 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures-afa.com Contact: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, Eric Meade Vision and scenario development, strategic planning, trend analysis, workshop design and facilitation, presentations, keynotes, consulting.

Atlas Safety & Security Design, Inc. 770 Palm Bay Ln., Suite 4-I, Miami, FL 33138 Phone: 305-756-5027 Fax: 305-754-1658 E-mail: ratlas@ix.netcom.com Web: www.cpted-security.com Contact: Dr. Randall Atlas, AIA, CPP Pioneers in crime prevention through environmental design. Design of jails, prevention of premises liability lawsuits.

Aviv Consulting 15363 NE 201st St. Woodinville, WA 98072 Phone: 425-415-6155 Fax: 425-415-0664 E-mail: avivconsulting@gmail.com Web: www.avivconsulting.com Contact: Aviv Shahar Helping leaders and teams develop their vision and design the future. Innovation, strategy, coaching, consulting, retreats.

Joseph F. Coates, Consulting Futurist, Inc. 5420 Connecticut Ave. NW, #619 Washington, DC 20015-2832 Phone 202-363-7440 Fax 202-363-4139 Email: joe@josephcoates.com Web: www.josephcoates.com The future is my business: futures research, consultation, trend analysis, scenario development, visioning, scientific, technological and social forecasting, training, briefings, workshops, presentations and keynotes. Coates has been one of the most frequently cited authors in Future Survey and one of the most popular speakers at the World Future Society annual meetings. He is the author or co-author of six books, most recently A Bill of Rights for 21st Century America, and of 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. He has had assignments from half of the Fortune 100 firms, and has had published 290 articles on the future since 1990. He is also responsible for 200 proprietary reports to business, government and association clients. Coates will enlighten you on the future of any subject. Prepare for an unforgettable encounter.

M.Ed., LPC Adaptations today are the future. The authors of The Boids and the Bees tell how to guide adaptations in our living systems: healthcare, education, economy, even us.

Creating the Future, Inc. with Edward D. Barlow, Jr. 2907 Division St., Suite 109, St. Joseph, MI 49085 Phone: 269-982-1830 Fax: 269-982-1541 E-mail: info@creatingthefuture.com Web: www.creatingthefuture.com Contact: Ed Barlow (staff: Sandy, Tammy, and Tresea) Relating influences of a changing world to industries, organizations, professions, communities. Presentations, strategic planning facilitation.

de Bono For Business 248 W. Loraine St., #103, Glendale, CA 91202 Phone: 818-507-6055 E-mail: info@LyndaCurtin.com Web: www.deBonoForBusiness.com Contact: Lynda Curtin, the Opportunity Thinker Lift your thinking. Learn breakthrough futurist tools—lateral thinking, six thinking hats. Workshops. Keynotes. Facilitation.

FutureManagement Group AG Wallufer Strasse 3a, Eltville, Germany D-65343 Phone: 49-6123-7 55 53 Fax: 49-6123-7 55 54 Web: www.FutureManagementGroup.com E-mail: Office@FutureManagementGroup.com Contacts: Pero Micic, Claudia Schramm Use the “Eltville Model” of FutureManagement to see more of the future than your competitors!

Future Problem Solving Program International, Inc. 2015 Grant Pl., Melbourne, FL 32901 Phone: 321-768-0078 Fax: 321-768-0097 E-mail: mail@fpspi.org Web: www.fpspi.org Contact: Marianne Solomon, Executive Director FPSPI is an established educational program that provides a 6-step problem solving process to assist students as they think about the future.

Common Sense Medicine 812 W. 8th St., Suite 2A, Plainview, TX 79072 Phone: 806-291-0700 Fax: 806-293-8229 E-mail: drjonzdo@yahoo.com Web: www.commonsensemedicine.org Contact: Lon Jones DO, Jerry Bozeman

The Futures Corporation

Innovation Focus Inc.

Leading Futurists LLC

1109 Main St., Ste. 299A, Boise, ID 83702 Phone: 208-345-5995 Fax: 208-345-6083 E-mail: JLuthy@futurescorp.com Web: www.futurescorp.com Contact: Dr. John Luthy Strategic thinking/planning; evolving leadership; organization redesign/development; trend analysis; scenario planning; business growth strategies.

111 E. Chestnut St., Lancaster PA 17602-2703 Phone: 717-394-2500 Web: www.innovationfocus.com Contacts: Christopher W. Miller, Ph.D.; Anne Orban, M.Ed. Innovation Focus is an internationally recognized consulting firm that brings innovation to all stages of product life cycle management and provides proven processes for deep customer understanding and meaningful innovation. Clients include: Kraft Foods, Kimberly Clark, WD-40, Bristol-Myers Squibb.

4420 49th St., NW, Washington, DC 20016 Phone: 202-271-0444 E-mail: jbmahaffie@starpower.net Web: www.leadingfuturists.biz Contacts: John B. Mahaffie, Jennifer Jarratt Futures consulting, workshops, scenarios, research, keynote talks to help organizations discover new opportunities and challenges. Members, Association of Professional Futurists.

The Futures Lab 2130 Goodrich Ave., Austin, TX 78704 Phone: 512-468-4505 E-mail: dwoodgate@futures-lab.com Web: www.futures-lab.com Contact: Derek Woodgate International futures-based consultancy specializing in consumer, business futures. Leaders in the future potential business.

Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey DaVinci Institute, 511 E South Boulder Road, Louisville, CO 80027 Phone: 303-666-4133 E-mail: deb@davinciinstitute.com Web: www.futuristspeaker.com Contact: Debra Frey Thomas Frey is Google’s top-rated futurist speaker and IBM’s most award-winning engineer. Author of Communicating with the Future—the book that changes everything. Speaking topics: future of business, work, education, transportation, government, and more.

The Greenway Group 25 Technology Pkwy. South, Suite 101, Norcross, GA 30092 Phone: 678-879-0929 Fax: 678-879-0930 E-mail: jcramer@di.net Web: www.greenway.us Contact: James Cramer, chairman Strategic change, trends, forecasts, research. Architecture and design technology. Journals: Design Intelligence. Publications: The Almanac of Architecture & Design, How Firms Succeed, Design + Enterprise, Leadership by Design, Communication by Design, Value Redesigned.

H.G. Hudson and Associates 34 Warren Dr., Newport News, VA 23608 Phone: 757-874-5414 E-mail: HUDSON2059@msn.com Contact: Henry G. Hudson, president and CEO Management consulting help in advanced administrative services, operations, systems, methods, procedures, policies, strategy, and management.

MG Rush Performance Learning 1301 W. 22nd St., Suite 603, Oak Brook, IL 60523 Phone: 630-954-5880 Fax: 630-954-5889 E-mail: futurist@mgrush.com Contacts: Terrence Metz, 630-954-5882; Kevin Booth, 630-954-5884 Facilitation of, and facilitator training for: scenario planning, strategy development, group decision-making, workshop design, ideation, option development and analysis, and training of facilitative leadership.

Institute for Alternative Futures 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures.com Contacts: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, William Rowley, MD Uses research reports, workshops, scenarios, and visioning to help organizations understand future possibilities and create their “preferred future.”

Minkin Affiliates 135 Riviera Dr., #305, Los Gatos, CA 95032 Phone: 408-402-3020 E-mail: barryminkin@earthlink.net Web: minkinaffiliates.com Contact: Barry Minkin Keynote speaker, bestselling author, global management consultant, three decades linking emerging trends to consumer and market strategy.

Institute for Global Futures 2084 Union St., San Francisco, CA 94123 Phone: 415-563-0720 Fax: 415-563-0219 E-mail: info@globalfuturist.com Web: www.GlobalFuturist.com Contact: Dr. James Canton Futures based keynotes, consulting and research for any vertical industry by leading futurist James Canton.

Next Consulting 104 Timber Ridge Rd., State College, PA 16801 Phone: 814-237-2575 Fax: 814-863-4257 E-mail: g7g@psu.edu Web: nextconsulting.us Contact: Geoffrey Godbey, Ph.D. Repositioning leisure/tourism organizations for the near future. Speeches, ideation, imagineering. Client list on request.

Institute for Participatory Management and Planning P.O. Box 1937, Monterey, CA 93942-1937 Phone: 831-373-4292 Fax: 831-373-0760 E-mail: ipmp@aol.com Web: www.ipmp-bleiker.com Contacts: Annemarie Bleiker, Hans Bleiker, Jennifer Bleiker We offer a Leadership Boot-Camp for guiding complex problem-solving and decision-making efforts.

Jim Pinto Associates P.O. Box 131673, Carlsbad, CA 92013 Phone: 858-353-5467 E-mail: jim@jimpinto.com Web: www.JimPinto.com Contact: Jim Pinto Speaker and consultant: technology futures, industrial automation, global business trends, Internet business relationships.

KAIROS Future AB P.O. Box 804, S-10136 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: (46 8) 545 225 00 Fax: (46 8) 545 225 01 E-mail: info@kairosfuture.se Web: www.kairosfuture.se Contacts: Mats Lindgren, Anna Kiefer Values, work, technology, marketing. Methods: scenarios, studies, lectures, seminars, consulting. Public and private sectors.

More consultants and services, next page www.wfs.org

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Consultants

and

Services

Pinyon Partners LLC

Contacts: Bruce L. Tow, David A. Gilliam Future-is-now resources to help you achieve key and mission-critical breakthroughs or creatively evolve your business to meet future challenges.

140 Little Falls St., Suite 210, Falls Church, VA 22046 Phone: 703-651-0359 E-mail: pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com Web: www.pinyonpartners.com Contacts: Peter B.G. Shoemaker; Dan Garretson, Ph.D. Quantitative and qualitative. Art and Science. However you want to characterize it, our distinctive combination of the hard-nosed and the deeply intuitive is perfectly suited for those navigating over the horizon. Expansive explorations of what’s next; engaging engagements with change; consultations, workshops, research, and talks aimed at creating future-oriented clarity, purpose, insight, and confidence. Member, Association of Professional Futurists.

Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd. Belsize Park, London NW3 UK Phone: 44-207-449-2903 Fax: 44-870-136-5560 E-mail: www.hardintibbs.com Web: www.synthstrat.com Contact: Hardin Tibbs, CEO Synthesys specializes in using futures research to develop innovative strategies. Based in London UK, with international experience in both the public and private sectors, across many different industries. Projects include horizon scanning, strategic sense-making, scenarios, vision building, assumption testing, and strategy formulation, either as expert input or by co-production directly with leadership teams.

Qi Systems 35 Seacoast Terr., Apt. 6P, Brooklyn, NY 11235 Phone: 718-769-9655 E-mail: QiSys@msn.com Web: www.qisystems.org Contact: Ronn Parker, Ph.D. Spectrum Counseling: conflict resolution, conscious evolution, martial arts, meditation methods, mindbody strategies, transformational learning.

The TechCast Project Department of Information Systems & Technology Management, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052 Phone: 202-994-5975 E-mail: Halal@gwu.edu Web: www.techcast.org Contact: William E. Halal, professor, George Washington University; president, Techcast LLC TechCast is an online research project that pools the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Results are updated in real time and distributed to corporations, governments, and other subscribers to aid in their strategic planning. The project has been featured in The Washington Post, Newsweek, The Futurist, and various journals. The National Academies consider TechCast among the best systems available, and Google ranks it No. 2 or 3 out of 45 million hits. TechCast also gives presentations, conducts customized studies, and performs most types of consulting related to technology and strategic change.

David Pearce Snyder, Consulting Futurist The Snyder Family Enterprise, 8628 Garfield St., Bethesda, MD 20817-6704 Phone: 301-530-5807 Fax: 301-530-1028 E-mail: david@the-futurist.com Web: www.the-futurist.com Contact: Sue Snyder High-impact motivating presentations. Strategic assessments, socio-technologic forecasts/scenarios. Keynote addresses, strategic briefings, workshops, surveys.

Strategic Futures® Strategic Futures Consulting Group, Inc. 113 South Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone: 703-836-8383 Fax: 703-836-9192 E-mail: info@strategicfutures.com Web: www.strategicfutures.com Contact: Ron Gunn or Jennifer Thompson Strategic planning, succession planning including mentoring, executive coaching, organizational change facilitation, and matrix management assistance.

Town and Gown Relations Kemp Consulting, LLC P. O. Box 342, Meriden, CT 06450-0342 Phone: 203-686-0281 E-mail: rlkbsr@snet.net Web (consulting): www.rogerlkemp.com Web (background): www.rogerkemp.org Contact: Roger Kemp, MPA, MBA, PhD, President Dr. Kemp has been author and editor of over a dozen books dealing with issues relating to cities (towns) and colleges (gowns). He gives keynote speeches, strategic briefings, and does futures research and consulting on emerging

SynOvation Solutions 455 Hazelwood Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94127 Phone: 415-298-3008 E-mail: info@synovationsolutions.com Web: www.synovationsolutions.com

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trends dealing with the dynamic and evolving field of town-gown relations.

21st Century Learning LLC 10 Jamaicaway, Suite #18, Boston, MA 02130 Telephone: 978-204-2770 Email: charlesfadel@gmail.com Web: www.21stcenturyskillsbook.com Contact: Charles Fadel, founder and best-selling author: 21st Century Skills; visiting scholar, Harvard GSE and MIT ESG. Education’s futures, as impacted by Technology, and along the dimensions of Knowledge, Skills, Character, and Metacognition. Keynotes and seminars on global education; education technology; neuroscience of learning; creativity & innovation; artificial intelligence & augmented intelligence.

van der Werff Global, Ltd. 4958 Crystal Circle, Hoover, AL 35226 Phone: 888-448-3779 Fax: 888-432-9263 E-mail: terry@globalfuture.com Web: www.globalfuture.com Contact: Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC Confidential advisor to corporate leaders worldwide on global trends, executive leadership, and strategic change.

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. 200 E. 33rd St., Suite 9I, New York, NY 10016 Phone: 212-889-7007 Fax: 212-679-0628 E-mail: info@weineredrichbrown.com Web: www.weineredrichbrown.com Contact: Arnold Brown, Edie Weiner For over two decades, the pioneers in detecting emerging trends and linking them to a ction.

Xland sprl 111 Av Grandchamp, Brussels, Belgium 1150 Phone: 32-475-827-190 Fax: 32-2-762-46-08 Web: www.xland.be E-mail: xland@skynet.be Contact: D. Michel Judkiewicz Trend analysis, scenarios, forecasting opportunities/threats based on strong and weak signals for resilient strategies.

Connect! Link to futurist consultants and services online at www.wfs.org/consultants

Book Reviews Gore’s “Future” and The Trends Driving It By Michael Lee

Despite a lack of scenario development in The Future, Al Gore offers a deft analysis of the policy implications of today’s major global driving forces. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore may not be a futurist, but he must rank as one of the most literate, cultured, well-informed, and visiona r y p o l i t i c i a n s s i n c e Wi n s t o n Churchill. Following the global success of An Inconvenient Truth, he has risen to become a leading social commentator, a voice we ignore at our peril. His latest book, The Future, reinforces this growing and well-deserved reputation. It’s an invaluable handbook for policy makers and strategists seeking a better understanding of emerging global society. There are those who strive to forecast and foresee the social future while others help to shape and guide its evolution in practice. Gore’s book does not qualify as a futurological work as such, but The Future would enable governments and organizations to grasp the game-changing developments that the world is undergoing in order to mitigate serious political, economic, and social risks that we face. While Gore identifies six drivers of global change, he does not construct any scenarios or make any specific forecasts, framed within proper time scales, to apply them in an imagined future world shaped by them. That said, this is a big book that gives us the big picture. The six drivers of global change are: 1. Economic globalization creating an interconnected but unequal world

economy with growevolutionary trajectoing divides between ries. haves and have-nots. Futurological sce2. The Internet and narios based on these worldwide Web linksix drivers of change ing billions of people would need to idenand their various intify the gatekeepers, telligent devices. stakeholders, change 3. The changing bala g e n t s , a n d ro a d ance of global power blocks within regions from a unipolar post– and countries in order Cold War world to a to fathom how these more complex netsources of change are work of powers from likely to work themEast and West, develselves out on the oped and developing ground within deficountries, with mar- The Future by Al Gore. nite time frames. The kets and multinational Random House. 2013. 592 way that North Korea pages. $30. organizations tranresponds to them will scending the structure be entirely different of modern nation-states (“More than from how China, Japan, Russia, and half of the 100 largest economies on South Korea will change. earth are now corporations”). One very serious problem today 4. Unsustainable growth in popu- that Gore articulates beautifully is lation and resource consumption on unemployment. He points out that an Earth rapidly reaching its natural the Great Recession of 2008-2012 relimits—i.e., the breakdown of the sulted in a loss of 27 million jobs unlimited growth paradigm. worldwide. This happened at a time 5. New emerging technology leaps in which “robo-sourcing,” or automade possible by nanotechnologies, mation, is leading to fewer available 3-D printing (including the capabil- jobs, which, as he points out, will deity to literally print a house in under press consumer demand and exacer24 hours!), and the development of bate social inequalities. powerful materials such as graphene Consequently, job creation has al(one of the strongest materials ever ready become a major challenge for developed), coupled with increased governments worldwide. In the knowledge in the life sciences. years ahead, unemployment is likely 6. Climate change producing a re- to become a life-and-death issue for alignment, or misalignment, of civili- most governing authorities. Along zation with its surrounding ecological with rising prices and steadily desystems, including the atmosphere. pleting global energy supplies, a Gore meticulously puts these toxic socio-economic brew is being trends into their proper historical created. In many regions, when perspective. However, he may have widespread unemployment and underestimated the decisive role of other economic pressures produce industrial-scale energy in future eco- social volatility, unrest is just one nomic development facing us all, trigger-event away. and glossed over the crippling efGore identifies a vacuum of politifects of government debt in major cal leadership at a time when comWestern countries from the United pounding, interconnected problems States to the Euro zone. are calling out for stronger, more But the real problem with Gore’s ethical, and more scientifically inanalysis, in my view, is that social formed public governance. Today’s change is actually manifested at re- politicians, by and large, appear as gional, national, and local levels— hollow, telegenic celebrity toastmasfrom the ground up rather than sim- ters peddling political slogans while ply flowing top-down from global promoting a business-as-usual

Book Reviews

agenda in consultation with powerful figures in the media and business. Few thinkers would argue with Gore that there has been a widespread degradation of democracy in the West. In this context, The Future stands out as an important beacon of sound political logic and ethical thinking for our times. Social policies can shape the future in entrenched, long-term ways. Politics today needs huge doses of systems thinking and futurology in order to adopt balanced and sustainable policies in step with a complex, emerging global society. Al Gore’s The Future is a powerful reference work no policy maker, strategist, or thinking person concerned about citizenship in today’s changing world can afford to be without.

lete the genes for disorhim with this ders that each breed carunique ability by ries—such as Labrador inserting jellyfish retrievers’ high susceptiDNA into his bility to hip dysplasia, or genome. the higher-than-average This remarkable incidence of narcolepsy cat is just one of among Dobermans. The the dozens of vetend result would be the erinary marvels same dog breeds, minus that journalist Emthe medical complicaily Anthes shares tions. with readers in “Biotechnology could Frankenstein’s Cat, do more for animals than a book about the it’s given credit for,” she fast-moving field writes. “Sure, we can of animal biotechmake animals sick, but we nology, the science Frankenstein’s Cat: can also choose to deploy of engineering an- Cuddling Up to Biotech’s Brave New Beasts by Emily our species-shaping powimals’ bodies and Anthes. Scientific American/ ers to help other species g e n e s . B r e a k - Farrar, Strauss & Giroux. survive and thrive, to crethroughs in genet- 2013. 241 pages. $26. ate healthier, happier, fitics are giving reter critters, and some scisearchers the tools to reengineer animal life for a wide entists are doing just that.” Other case studies, however, are variety of human purposes. “Science has given us a whole new clearly better deals for the humans toolbox for tinkering with life, and than for the animals. These include we have the power to modify ani- human DNA-enhanced pigs whose mals in profound new ways. We are organs sufficiently resemble vital huediting their genetic codes, rebuild- man organs that hospitals can haring their broken bodies, and supple- vest them for human transplant pamenting their natural senses,” she tients, and livestock whose meat and milk are infused with extra nutrients writes. Some of these lines of experimenta- for their human consumers. Still other applications invoke tion stand to enhance human health and even save human lives. For in- heated controversy, not because they stance, researchers could soon breed cause the animals to suffer, but befarm animals that are naturally im- cause they endow humans with a mune to avian flu and other diseases mastery over life that some critics coming from farms. Another applica- find unsettling. Among these are eftion involves mechanically gaining forts to clone pets or even hithertocontrol of an insect or rodent’s brain extinct wild animals, or to tailorand directing it via remote-control to make lab animals that do not feel move wherever the researcher wills pain. “Critics worry that our effort to reit. Remote-controlled insects or mice could prove invaluable in future make the world’s fauna is the worst search-and-rescue missions in the af- example of human hubris, the extermath of an earthquake or other pression of an arrogant desire to play God,” she writes. natural disaster. Anthes looks favorably on animal Animal biotechnology can benefit animals, too. Anthes notes gene- biotechnology and makes no secret therapy experiments that have re- of it. She argues that the science can stored sight to blind dogs, for ex- do much more good than harm, and ample. Other endeavors include that to reject it out of hand would be cataloguing the gene expressions of an enormous mistake that would every dog breed so that geneticists leave humans and animals both could identify and find ways to de- worse off.

About the Reviewer Michael Lee is founder and chairman of the Southern African Chapter of the World Future Society (www.wfs-sa.com) and CEO of ATMIA (www.atmia.com). His book Knowing Our Future: The Startling Case for Futurology (Infinite Ideas, 2012) was reviewed in the May-June 2013 issue of THE FUTURIST.

Of Mice and Men, Cats and Jellyfish By Rick Docksai

Journalist Emily Anthes investigates the new science and ethics of physically and genetically modifying animals. What do you get when you mix a cat and a jellyfish? You get Mr. Green Genes, a real-life housecat in New Orleans whose nose lights up, first bright pink and then lime green, whenever he is placed under a black light. Human researchers endowed 54

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“We spend so much time discussing the ethics of our emerging scientific capabilities that we sometimes forget that not using them has ethical implications of its own,” she writes. “How many animals (and humans) will suffer if we turn our backs on breakthroughs like a genetically engineered chicken incapable of spreading the flu?” Nonetheless, she gives the critics their due. Not every use of animals is a good use, she grants. Anthes shares the concerns of many critics that the animals’ welfare does not always get due consideration, or that human ambition might in some cases be overstepping its bounds. She sees plenty of room for reasonable disagreements over just how far we humans should go in remaking other forms of life. She calls for researchers, lawmakers, and the public to make hard decisions about what is and is not acceptable in this new research-and-development domain. Breakthroughs in altering animals’ bodies and genes will raise new questions of ethics—not only about animal welfare, but about the very relationship of humans and human technology to the natural world. Resolving these issues will be a perplexing and polarizing process, but a necessary one all the same. “As biotechnology moves forward, we’ll have to carefully evaluate each application on its own terms, trying to balance what’s in the best interests of an individual animal with what’s good for its species as a whole, for humanity, and for the world that we all share,” she writes. In all, Frankenstein’s Cat is a lively, engaging, and intensely researched overview of where animal science has gone in recent decades and where it might go. All who value both human and animal welfare may think it worth their while to give it a read. About the Reviewer Rick Docksai is the associate editor of THE FUTURIST and World Future Review. Read his interview with author Emily Anthes at www.wfs.org.

argues. He notes the support for climate engineering by fossil-fuel companies and by politically conservative groups such as the American Enterprise Institute that deny that global warming exists in the first place. Meanwhile, a plethora of the governments of developing nations have come out strongly against climate engineering, expressly fearful of unintended consequences that might arise from tampering with Earth’s climate. Their opposition is understandable, Hamilton points out, since these consequences would hit them the hardest. The truth is that humans are not Earth’s masters and never really have been, Hamilton argues. Modern technology-driven civilization that separates humans from the natural world has only existed for a few centuries, and it has brought us to the climate-change crisis we now face. To count on technology to fix the crisis is, Hamilton concludes, to attempt to solve our problems with the same mentality and tools that created them. Earthmasters presents a well- researched caveat emptor on a technological field that is clearly drawing high-profile acclaim and fierce criticism. Readers who are for climate engineering, against it, or undecided will all find Hamilton’s book to be an informative and discussion- worthy read. —RD

Perils of Climate-Control Hubris Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering by Clive Hamilton. Yale University Press. 2013. 247 pages. $28.

As the effects of climate change grow more severe in coming years, mass movements among the public may back the use of geoengineering technologies to set things right, according to Charles Sturt University ethicist Clive Hamilton. These include mechanical devices that undo human-caused global warming by either suctioning greenhouse gases out of the air or restricting the amounts of sunlight that reach Earth’s surface. The technologies are only in the conceptual stages now, but the research is accelerating rapidly; Hamilton finds good reason to expect that they will reach fruition later this century and make significant changes to our already-changed climate. Those changes won’t necessarily be for the better, however. In Earthmasters, Hamilton reviews the most popular ideas for “solar radiation management” measures—i.e., measures to block sunlight—cautioning that each one could significantly disrupt regional weather patterns, and some could seriously damage the ozone layer. Hamilton assesses the public debate, which pits skeptical governments and climate researchers against pro-climate-engineering camps of technology researchers and entrepreneurs. Personality and politics greatly influence the whole discussion and, unfortunately, can comp ro m i s e t h e s c i e n c e . C l i m a t e engineering can seem like an easy substitute for the hard work of cutting energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions; moreover, it appeals to wishful thinking, blind faith in technology, and ideological belief in human mastery over nature, Hamilton www.wfs.org

Civilians Helping Civilians Keep the Peace The Technology of Nonviolence: Social Media and Violence Prevention by Joseph G. Bock. The MIT Press. 2012. 288 pages. $32.

While violence continues to plague our world, citizens in many affected communities are organizing •

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Society, a Catholic relief agency operating in Ahmedabad, India, is internationally funded but is staffed by locals of many faiths. The agency uses street plays, community meetings, and occasional interventions from civic leaders to defuse hostilities between Hindu and Muslim neighborhood residents. • Genocide Intervention Network, an international peace organization, teamed up with a Burmese NGO called the Free Burma Rangers to install radio-broadcasting systems in villages throughout Burma’s Karen state, which had been suffering from repeated clashes between Burma’s army and ethnic resistance armies. Villages can now send distress calls to alert each other of approaching armed forces and likely surprise attacks. The Free Burma Rangers will send relief teams to threatened villages to provide food and medicine, and to help residents to evacuate.

their own grassroots initiatives for peace and are proving to be remarkably effective, reports Joseph Bock, a University of Notre Dame professor of humanitarian relief and development. He profiles initiatives in numerous communities and settings, describing each one’s methods and what peace activists everywhere can learn from them. Many of Bock’s success stories involve local activists creating earlywarning and early-response systems by which members scout for any incidents or developments that could turn violent and then alert authorities who can intervene. Other initiatives establish community forums for resolving conflicts through dialogue. A few initiatives, recognizing that sometimes violence is unavoidable, prep a re c o m m u n i t i e s t o foresee an attacking force and evacuate to safety. Among those Bock profiles are: • St. Xavier ’s Social Services

• Farmers in Colombia’s Carrara province formed the Association of Peasant Workers of Carrara (ATCC) in response to protracted violence between antigovernment guerrilla factions and government-sponsored militia groups. The ATCC initiates discussion forums and negotiations among community residents, the guerrillas, and the militias. The network also enforces a ban on firearms throughout its members’ villages to ensure a safe haven for free discussion. Bock discusses ideal approaches for early-warning and response systems, emergency-response programs, and other violence-mitigation efforts. Also, he shares his thoughts on how all violence-prevention services can assess themselves to make sure that they are as effective as they can be. The Technology of Noviolence is a best-practices guide for creatively spreading peace. It will be an engaging and informative read for any global-development professional, and for any other reader who longs for a more peaceful world. —RD ❑

THE FUTURIST Magazine Blog…Your Daily Link to Tomorrow’s World Every day our global pool of blog contributors at wfs.org reports from the cutting-edge of science, technology, policy, and foresight. Some of the topics we tackled recently include: How to Feed 9.5 Billion Humans in 2050 / How Google Glass Will Disrupt the Hearing Aid Industry / How to Bring More Creativity in Scenario Thinking / Scientific Futuring / Boston and Crowdsourced Intelligence / Democratic Governance 2030 / MOOCs: “the color of television, turned to a dead channel” / Wearable Computers—Ready for Action! / Downloadable Personalities for Your Computer / Coal Use Growing Faster than Renewables—Ouch! / Zuckerberg’s Privation / Monitoring People from Space: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly / What Turned You on as a Futurist? / Al Gore Takes on the Global Megacrisis / Water-Purifying Nano Tablets / Back from the Dead! Debating DeExtinction …and much more. You’ll find new material related to the future on our Web site every day. Check it out for free at www.wfs.org/blog

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WorldFuture C.G. WAGNER / WFS

2013

Exploring the Next Horizon

Tsvi Bisk

July 19-21, 2013 • Hilton Chicago Hotel • Chicago, Illinois, USA Preconference Courses: July 18-19, 2013 • Professional Members Forum: July 22, 2013 Heather Schlegel

Excitement is growing for the World Future Society’s annual conference! The theme of “Exploring the Next Horizon” inspires us to consider how our actions and decisions today will impact the world that the next generation will build (and build upon): the twenty-second century.

WorldFuture 2013 Schedule at a glance: Thursday, July 18, 2013

9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.—Preconference Master Courses KAZ OKADA FOR WFS

Friday, July 19, 2013

Futurists: BetaLaunch

9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.—Preconference Master Courses 9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.—Global Summit on the Future of Education 9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.—Special Interest Group Meetings 7:00–8:30 p.m.—Opening Plenary Session, with Nicholas Negroponte, founder and chairman of One Laptop per Child, on “Learning without Schools” 8:30–10:00 p.m.—Welcoming Reception and Futurists: BetaLaunch

DAN DOWNEY FOR WFS

Saturday, July 20, 2013

7:00–8:45 a.m.—Special Activities 8:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.—Exhibits Open 9:00–10:30 a.m.—Concurrent Sessions 11:00 a.m.–12:00 noon—22nd Century Lecture Series: • Brenda Cooper, “Stepping Backwards into Eden” (Earth) • Fabienne Goux-Baudiment, “A Futureplex Mindset” (Futuring) • Marta M. Keane, “Healthy Aging in the 22nd Century” (Humanity) • Joergen Oerstroem Moeller, “Cultural Values versus Economic Activity” (Governance) • Heather Schlegel, “A Possibility Tour, Led by Heathervescent…” (Commerce) • John Smart, “Leadership of Technological Change” (Sci/Tech)

To register, call (M-F, 9-5 Eastern time): 1-800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274 Register online at www.wfs.org/worldfuture-2013-exploring-next-horizon KAZ OKADA FOR WFS

PHOTOS: HILTON CHICAGO

Hilton Chicago Marci Segal

720 South Michigan Avenue Chicago, IL 60605, USA Phone: 312-922-4400 / 877-865-5320

12:15–1:45 p.m.—Keynote Luncheon, with John Watts, “Understanding Future Threats through Analytical Gaming” 2:00–3:00 p.m.—Concurrent Sessions 4:00–5:30 p.m.—Concurrent Sessions 5:30–6:30 p.m.—Dinner (on your own) 6:30–7:30 p.m.—Concurrent Sessions 8:00–10:00 p.m.—Poster Presentations and Reception (cash bar) Sunday, July 21, 2013

7:00–8:45 a.m.—Special Activities 8:00 a.m.–2:00 p.m.—Exhibits Open 8:00–8:30 a.m.—Sessions in Brief 9:00–10:30 a.m.—Concurrent Sessions 11:00 a.m.–12:00 noon—22nd Century Lecture Series • Stephen Aguilar-Millan, “A Monetary System for the 22nd Century” (Commerce) • Tsvi Bisk, “No Limits to Growth” (Earth) • Glen Hiemstra, “Futuring in 2100” (Futuring) • Eric Meade, “The Wisdom of the Web” (Governance) • Marci Segal and Megan Mitchell, “Learning and Creativity in 2100” (Humanity) • Patrick Tucker, “Moving Toward the Predictable Future with Big Data” (Sci/Tech) 12:15–1:45 p.m.—Keynote Luncheon, with Ramez Naam, “Innovating Our Way Past Global Crisis” 2:00–3:30 p.m.—Concurrent Sessions 3:45–5:00 p.m.—Closing Plenary Session, with Ford futurist Sheryl Connelly, “Confessions of a Corporate Futurist” Monday, July 22, 2013

9:00 a.m.–4:00 p.m.—Professional Members Forum: “Expanding the Futures Community’s Core Capabilities”

Since our last meeting at the historic Hilton Chicago, the hotel has begun a $150-million, three-year renovation program that promises to enhance the conference experience! Located across from Grant Park on famed Michigan Avenue, the hotel is convenient to many major Chicago attractions—not to mention your fellow participants! And to help you keep in touch with the rest of the world, the hotel’s entire lobby level offers complimentary Wi-Fi connection for registered hotel guests. If you have not made your hotel room reservation at the Hilton Chicago, now is the time to do it! We want to make sure you don’t miss out on the significantly reduced group room rate of $189 per night plus 16.4% tax. Be sure to book your room now before the rate expires and stay within your official block of rooms. This will ensure that all information and materials about the event will be received. Please book your room by July 3, 2013. Rooms are subject to availability. To register online, go to www.wfs .org/worldfuture-2013/register/ hotel-reservations If you register with the hotel by phone, please inform the registration assistant that you are attending WorldFuture 2013.

Future Active News for the Futurist Community SERAY NÂSIRLI

Germany Launches Initiative For City of the Future Germany is taking a lead in defining the city of the future as carbonneutral. In March, 30 representatives from science, business, and local communities came together in Berlin to launch a joint initiative aimed at exploring the scientific possibilities behind this goal. Creating a model for CO2-neutral cities is a major technology strategy of the German federal government. The objective for the next two years is to generate concepts of how cities can be made as carbon-neutral, energy efficient, and climate adapted as possible. This will be an interdisciplinary research and development project involving several federal departments and local governments at all levels. The need for this research is urgent, says Georg Schütte, state secretary of the Ministry of Education and Research, who observed: “In just a few years’ time, two-thirds of the world’s population will be living in cities.” The project’s goal is thus “to establish the necessary scientific basis for keeping cities livable now and in future. In doing this, we have to consider not only the issues of conserving resources and saving energy, but also the effects of climate change.” Moreover, “cities are the testing grounds for living and working together, and fostering their development in terms of economics, infras t r u c t u re , a n d e n v i ro n m e n t a l compatibility remains the joint task of society, business, science, and politics,” notes Rainer Bomba, state secretary of the Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development. The main office of the National Platform for the City of the Future is operated jointly by the FraunhoferGesellschaft and the German Institute of Urban Affairs. —Jay Herson Details: Fraunhofer IAO (Institut für Arbeitswirtschaft und Organisation, Institute for Industrial Engineering and Organization), www.iao .fraunhofer.de/lang-en/.

Future Day in Turkey On International Future Day (March 1), World Future Society President Timothy C. Mack was among a cadre of futurists invited for a day-long symposium on sustainable futures. Held at Kadir Has University’s Cibali campus, the event was organized by the Turkish Futurists Association. Future Day originated in 2011 as an initiative of Ben Goertzel, vice chair of Humanity+, to find World Future Society President Timothy Mack addresses a w a y s t o e n c o u r a g e symposium celebrating Future Day (March 1), hosted by broad thinking about the Turkish Futurists Association. creating better futures. For 2013, Turkish Futur• Nancy Donovan is a ists Association advisory board chair Ufuk Tarhan expanded the idea to senior analyst with the focus on tangible themes and proj- U.S. Government Ace c t s , s u c h a s m o v i n g t o w a rd c o u n t a b i l i t y O ff i c e , sustainability. working in the Center In addition to Mack, speakers at for Evaluation Methods the event included Intel futurist and and Issues within GAO’s Applied “Chief Evangelist” Steve Brown; Research and Methods team. In 2012, Egemen Bağış, minister for EU Af- she worked with Clem Bezold and fairs and chief negotiator; Norbert other futurists to launch the Public Klien of BSH Bosh and Siemens Sector Foresight Network, intended Home Appliances Turkey; Cem Tarık to enhance the exchange of ideas and Yüksel, vice president of sales and experiences regarding foresight. customer development at Unilever; • Joyce Gioia, a Strategic Business and Alphan Manas, Murat Ş ahin, Futurist, is CEO of Employer of and other members of the Turkish Choice Inc., president of Futurists Association board. The Herman Group, and Video greetings for the Future Day publisher of the weekly event were offered by Peter Bishop, e-newsletter Herman Ramez Naam, Verne Wheelwright, Alert. She also serves as and many others. To view, go to the THE FUTURIST’s WorkTurkish Futurist Association You- force/Workplace conTube channel: http://tinyurl.com/ tributing editor. She has been widely TurkishFuturists. quoted in the media, including Industry Week, The Christian Science Visit the Turkish Futurists Association Future Monitor, Entrepreneur Magazine, BusiDay page (English): http://gelecekgunu.org/eng/ ness Week, The Wall Street Journal, National Public Radio, and the Lifetime cable netNew WFS Board Members work. The World Future Society is hon• Eric Meade is vice ored to welcome five new members president and senior to its Board of Directors in 2012-2013: futurist at the Institute

Future Active

for Alternative Futures, where he has worked with clients in nonprofits, foundations, government agencies, and multinational corporations in a broad range of areas, including public health, poverty, and international development. • Carol D. Rieg is the corporate foundation officer at Bentley Systems Inc., where she directs the Corporate Social Responsibility program, involving 2,800 employees in 45 countries. She was one of the cre-

DAVID TISDALE/USM

ators of the Future City Competition and served as the National Director (1992-2008). She has also been elected to join the Society’s officers as Treasurer. • Les Wallace is the president of Signature Resources Inc., a consulting consortium of individuals and p a r t n e r o rg a n i z a t i o n s t h a t h e founded in 1982. Among his government and corporate clients have

been Hewlett-Packard, Dupont, Aetna, Kodak, the Internal Revenue Service, FBI, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Postal Service, and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

points that will make a dicey geo political and economic situation far worse. With no sense of green urgency, GT2030 thus makes no mention at all of widespread positive efforts to promote sustainability, “Green Growth,” and low-carbon economies. The notion of “black swans” is never defined, but the list of implicitly highly improbable developments (not to mention many developments—for better and worse—that are quite possible if not probable by 2030) is very incomplete. The NIC designates “individual empowerment” and “a huge growth of the global middle class” as its most important megatrend, but much or all of this may well be offset by accelerated climate change, downsized by NIC as a mere “black swan” in probability. How does this happen? The NIC seeks to be “as collaborative as possible,” yet, among the scores of individuals and institutions consulted, including the business-oriented McKinsey & Company Global Growth Model, no reference is made to recent reports on climate and the environment by the UN, OECD, and National Research Council. THE FUTURIST review by Robert Moran, which does make some good points, especially about technology threatening jobs, is similarly flawed by outright failure to mention cli-

mate change (NIC does mention climate, but not prominently). Moran states that he is a “technological optimist” who believes that our species will be “innovating ourselves out of the box.” This is possible, but not likely to begin until we fully consider the many boxes we have put ourselves in. [Ed. note: Michael Marien is director of Global Foresight Books co- author with Bill Halal of “Global Mega-Crisis: Four Scenarios” (THE FUTURIST, May-June 2011). His review of Global Trends 2030 is available as the February 2013 Book of the Month at www.GlobalForesightBooks.org, along with a review of a NIC-sponsored study on Climate Change and National Security, ignored by GT2030.] ❑

Details: World Future Society Board of Directors and Global Advisory Council members are ❑ listed at www.wfs.org/board-and-council.

Feedback

continued from page 4 it WILL do a much better job of driving growth and prosperity. Re: “Four Scenarios for 2030” by Robert Moran (book review of Global Trends 2030 by the National Intelligence Council) Michael Marien, GlobalForesightBooks.org (via e-mail): The December 2012 report of the National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, synthesizes a great amount of information about “megatrends,” related “tectonic shifts,” potential “game-changers,” and so-called “black swans.” In aiming to provide a “framework for thinking about the future,” it points to important trends and potential discontinuities, notably the bottom line that “we are at a critical juncture in history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” and that, one way or another, the world of 2030 “will be radically transformed.” That we can agree on. Although the GT2030 report has much of value to consider, it has several crucial flaws, notably the downgrading of mounting climate-change threats, resource scarcity, environmental degradation, and potential ecological or climatological tipping 60

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Join the conversation! • Send feedback to letters@ wfs.org • Comment on articles and blogs at wfs.org • Follow THE FUTURIST (@Theyear2030) or World Future Society (@WorldFutureSoc) on Twitter • Join the World Future Society group on LinkedIn • “Like” us on Facebook

Visions

continued from page 64 Says Page, “We’ve received a utility patent for our technology along with over $125,000 in pre-sales purchase orders from NGOs, disaster relief groups, and nonprofits operating in developing countries.” Details: http://portapure.com/ Inkling Online prediction markets, which allow people to bet on the probabilities of different events occurring, serve as a snapshot for what the public, individuals, or groups are thinking about the future. They’re redefining modern foresight practice, and Chicago-based Inkling has emerged as a key player in this rapidly growing market. “In most organizations, [prediction markets are] the only forum employees have to anonymously express what they really think is happening with their project or company,” the company wrote in an e-mail. Inkling has been in existence since 2006 and has already worked with auto manufacturers, oil companies, and major banks. At Futurists: BetaLaunch, they’ll demo their core software suite as well as “some new related stuff we’ve been cooking up.” Details: http://inklingmarkets.com/

celerometer the way an old-medium painter manipulates the colors on her canvas with a brush. Imagine the next generation of Vine, and you have Kilo-App. Details: http://kilo-app.com/ 3DPOV Virtual reality (VR) is more than a new way to play games; it’s also playing a larger and larger role in police and first-responder training. But just as gimmicky, poorly conceived, cartoonish VR graphics and actions ruin the gaming experience, so they can undermine the effectiveness of VR as a training tool. If you don’t really believe you’re in the action, you might as well be filling out a form. 3DPOV

WindyCitySDR We think of radio as what communication was like before the Internet: sound and music broadcast from a station over a limited area to a device that you had in your living room. In fact, as information technology spreads from desktop computers to phones to the physic a l e n v i ro n m e n t i n t h e f o r m o f s e n s o r s a n d r adio-frequency identification tags, radio signaling plays a part in evermore devices and services. Yet, radio signaling technology hasn’t kept pace with innovation in information technology. A Chicago start-up, WindyCitySDR, has received a patent for a software-defined radio device. A software radio can switch from being a cell phone to a wireless local area network to an electronic door operator (or what-not) to a closed-channel walkie-talkie. The hope, according to WindyCitySDR, is to once again make Chicago the “World’s Largest Manufacturer of Mobile Phones.” Details: www.windycitysdr.com/

Experience Media Studios’ 3DPOV® system lets law enforcement agencies design their own, first-person, highly credible simulations and exercises in 3-D. According to the creators, it “replicates a true-to-life binocular and peripheral visual field and a stereophonic auditory experience.” The system also captures GPS coordinates and altitude information to further augment reality. Details: http://experiencemediastudios.com/3dpov/

Kilo-App

CentUp

“Despite all the technology advancements in the past 20 years, video has remained a passive medium,” say the creators of Kilo-App. “Video playback has remained relatively unchanged.” The Kilo-App allows users to manipulate video on their smartphones through the ac-

“There is no way to make money blogging, and all content is just becoming blogs,” goes a familiar complaint about what information technology has done to media. But the real problem is that, if the world is awash in free content, how do publications, writers, www.wfs.org

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THE FUTURIST

July-August 2013

Visions

musicians, amateur movie directors, and other content creators convince people to support them financially? CentUp encourages readers, listeners, and Web surfers to donate to their favorite artists through a CentUp button that appears on new posts, uploads, etc. And a portion of the money goes to worthwhile charities doing great work in the developing world. When you reward your favorite blogger (or magazine) for a particularly insightful post, you can help buy school supplies for children in Africa, or support other good work. As the company explains in its promotional video, “We’re trying to make the world gooder, much gooder.” Details: www.centup.org/ Blipcare As much as 30% of the U.S. population over the age of 20 has high blood pressure, a consequence of our sedentary lifestyles and sodium-rich die t s . C h ro n i c h i g h blood pressure can lead to compounding health problems later in life, but tracking your

blood pressure via paper and pen or even via spreadsheet software is a lot of effort for relatively little reward. The Blipcare Wi-Fi blood pressure monitor allows users to track their blood pressure (or that of an older parent or grandparent) using a home Wi-Fi network. Users can quickly see how their relationship with food, alcoh o l , e x e rc i s e , sleep, and stress influences blood pressure without the hassle of writing down readings several times a day. The system can also send you an alert when you start to go off track. “Due to ease of use and built-in reminders, users take more readings,” the company writes. “The data can be used to personalize medication timing to improve outcomes (chronotherapy). The changes in behavior patterns can be tracked to predict readmissions or other adverse events.” Blipcare also produces a Wi-Fi Weight Scale that uses a home Wi-Fi network, which the company will demo at F:BL as well. It turns out that how you step on a scale reveals as much about you (such as your current level of fatigue) as does your weight when you’re on the platform. We simply didn’t have the tools to collect the data for those insights until now. Details: www.blipcare.com/ ❑

About the Author Patrick Tucker is deputy editor of THE FUTURIST, communications director for the World Future Society, and project manager of the annual Futurists: BetaLaunch expo.

“Goodshop” for WFS The World Future Society needs your help! With the economy in a slump, nonprofits like WFS are having t rouble meeting their fundraising goals this year. In a show of support, more than 1,000 of your favorite Internet retailers and travel sites have joined forces with GoodShop.com, donating a percentage of all your purchases to your favorite c harity at no additional cost to you! It takes just a few seconds to go to www.goodshop.com, select World Future Society, and then click through to your favorite store and shop as usual. Also, Yahoo! has teamed up with GoodShop’s sister site, GoodSearch.com, to donate a penny to your cause every time you search the Web. This is totally free, as the money comes from advertisers.

To get started, go to www.goodshop.com

THE FUTURIST

July-August 2013

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www.wfs.org

World Future Society Programs The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization chartered in the District of Columbia, U.S.A., and is recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a tax-exempt organization. The Society has about 25,000 members and subscribers in 80 nations. PUBLICATIONS

• The Futurist: A magazine published bimonthly, covering trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future. • Futurist Update: An e-mail newsletter available monthly to all members, covering a range of future-oriented news and useful links. • World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight: A journal for futures practitioners and scholars, with articles on forecasting techniques and applications, profiles of futurists and organizations, and abstracts of current futures-relevant literature. ACTIVITIES AND RESOURCES

• Conferences: The Society holds at least one major conference per year, to which all Society members are invited. Most conferences cover a wide range of topics related to the future. Most conferences are in the United States, but the Society has also held meetings in Canada and Austria. • Groups: Futurist groups are active in a number of U.S. cities, such as Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta, and in more than two dozen countries. • Books: New books of special interest to members may be purchased through the Society’s partnership with Amazon.com. MEMBERSHIP PROGRAMS

• Regular Membership: Includes THE FUTURIST magazine; discounts on conferences and books published by the Society; and such other benefits as may be approved for members. Discounted memberships are also available for full-time students under age 25. • Professional Membership: Programs and publications are available to meet the special needs of practitioners, researchers, scholars, and others who are professionally involved in forecasting, planning, or other futureoriented activities, including education and policy making. Professional members receive all the benefits of regular membership, plus a subscription to the journal World Future Review, as well as invitations to Professional Members Forums, and other benefits. • Institutional Membership: The World Future Society’s Institutional Membership program offers special services for business firms, educational institutions, government agencies, associations, and other groups. Members receive all of the benefits of Professional Membership, plus copies of all books, monographs, conference proceedings, special reports, and other publications produced by the Society during the year of the membership; special discounts on bulk purchases of Society publications; assistance in locating sources of information, consultants, and speakers for conferences and meetings, getting information tailored specifically to the organization’s needs; and inclusion in the Society’s list of institutional members published on the Society’s Web site and annually in THE FUTURIST. For more information and an application, contact Membership Secretary, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814 www.wfs.org.

www.wfs.org

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THE FUTURIST

July-August 2013

WorldFuture 2013 Preview

10 Future-Changing Inventions Ready to Launch By Patrick Tucker Futurists: BetaLaunch, the World Future Society’s third annual innovation competition, will allow WorldFuture 2013 attendees to get a glimpse of the companies, start-ups, and inventions that are changing the future. Here are the creators we’re honoring at F:BL this year.

Futurists: BetaLaunch is one of the few design and expo showcases that focuses only on future-changing inventions. Without further ado meet the winners of Futurists: BetaLaunch 2013! Surface Haptics: Northwestern University NxR Lab The Northwestern University Neuroscience and Robotics (NxR) Laboratory wants to make your texts, apps, and the sites you visit on your smartphone or tablet PC feel more real through a unique, still experimental, interface feature called surface haptics. According to the NxR Lab, surface haptics would let you “feel objects on the surface of your screen as they dynamically react to your motions.” The flat and shiny surface of your smartphone would be replaced by a tactile and stimulating landscape. The unlock slider would resist your push just enough to let you know it’s there, your fingertip would rise and fall over the “F” in the Facebook app icon. Says the lab: “We are not talking about buzzing; we are talking about making things feel real.” So far, about a thousand people have experienced surface haptics, according to the Lab. Details: http://nxr.northwestern.edu/ Portapure Water is the new oil, we’ve all been told many times. The UN has forecast that half of the world’s population will live in water-stressed areas by 2030. Rapid urbanization, climate change, and other trends will sweep growing numbers of people into areas where there ei-

ALEKSANDAR VELASEVIC / ISTOCKPHOTO

ther isn’t enough physical freshwater for them or where there isn’t sufficient infrastructure to meet rising water demands. It’s a situation that already afflicts 2.8 billion people in the developing world. In many parts of Africa, in particular, women and children are often forced to trek miles to water pumps, wells, and lakes (sometimes controlled by rival villages) and can only bring back a few PORTAPURE gallons of water at a time. George Page, the The Portapure Purelives water filter. founder and CEO of Portapure, has developed a solution that gets around infrastructure scarcity to meet rising water demands on an individual level. His company, Portapure, manufactures a five-gallon gravity-flow water filter, good for a family of six, that makes water from any lake, river, or stream safe to drink. continued on page 61