THE FUTURIST, November - December 2013 by World Future Society

Outlook 2014: More than 60 Forecasts for 2014 and Beyond!

Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future

www.wfs.org

Page 33

November-December 2013

Living Inside the Internet of Things Our cities and environments, and our experience of them, are poised to change dramatically as everything becomes increasingly interconnected. We explore the threats and opportunities of the age of ubiquitous computing. Pages 16 and 22

Governments Confront Their Pension Deficit Disorder, page 28 Game Plan for a Future-Ready Workforce, page 43 $5.95

Join World Future Society for just $79 per year and receive: • THE FUTURIST magazine • Exclusive digital access • Futurist Update e-newsletter • Discounts on books • Conference invitations Call 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274

Futurists Explore the Next Horizon, page 47 Evolution or Extinction? Humanity’s Future Legacy, page 64 PLUS: WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

When the Bots Can Read Your E-mail, page 8 How the Brain Grieves Lost Futures, page 10 Impacts of Humanity’s Madding Crowds, page 12

About the World Future Society Why study the future?

What is the World Future Society?

The world changes so quickly that it‘s hard to keep up. New inventions and innovations alter the way we live. People‘s values, attitudes, and beliefs are changing. And the pace of change keeps accelerating, making it difficult to prepare for tomorrow. By studying the future, people can better anticipate what lies ahead. More importantly, they can actively decide how they will live in the future by making choices today and realizing the consequences of their decisions. The future doesn‘t just happen: People create it through their action—or inaction—today.

The World Future Society is an association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. The Society was founded in 1966 by a group of private citizens, and is chartered as a nonprofit educational and scientific organization.

What can we know about the future? No one knows exactly what will happen in the future. But by considering what might happen, people can more rationally decide on the sort of future that would be most desirable and then work to achieve it. Opportunity as well as danger lies ahead, so people need to make farsighted decisions. The process of change is inevitable; it‘s up to everyone to make sure that change is constructive.

How do I join the Society? Visit www.wfs.org or contact: World Future Society Membership Department 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Telephone: 301-656-8274

What does the Society do? The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future. Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, scenarios, alternatives, and more. These ideas help people to anticipate what may happen in the next five, 10, or more years ahead. When people can visualize a better future, then they can begin to create it.

What does membership offer? ■ THE FUTURIST, a magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. Every member receives a subscription to this exciting bimonthly magazine. Experts in various fields share their insights and forecasts in articles directed at a general audience. ■ Special rates for all annual conferences. These conferences provide members with the opportunity for face-to-face meetings with distinguished scholars, leaders, and experts from around the world. ■ Access to your local chapter. Over 100 cities in the United States and abroad have chapters for grassroots support of futures studies. They provide a way for members to get involved in their local communities through workshops, discussion groups, and speakers.

Free e-mail newsletter! Visit www.wfs.org.

November-December 2013 Volume 47, No. 6

A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas

about the future

ARTICLES 16 Connecting with Our Connected World By Richard Yonck

Report from WorldFuture 2013. Page 47

DEPARTMENTS 2

Tomorrow in Brief

Feedback

World Trends & Forecasts: Organizational Change, Information Society, Psychology, Species

14 Salute to Our Contributors 53 Consultants and Services

REVIEWS 56 Expanding the Predictable Universe A book review by Patrick Tucker

Data scientist Eric Siegel explains the brave, new, and surprising world of predictive analytics in Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die.

57 Debating the Singularity A DVD review by Cynthia G. Wagner

What it is, whether it’s coming, and how it will affect us are all subjects for debate among leading futurists in The Singularity, a documentary by Doug Wolens.

The world and our experience of it are poised to change dramatically as everything becomes increasingly interconnected. Here’s what we can expect in the coming era of the “Internet of Things.”

22 Securing the Cyber City Of the Future By Indu B. Singh and Joseph N. Pelton

Our urban infrastructure is now under constant threat of cyberattack and a growing range of disasters—both natural and man-made. Our privacy is under threat from overzealous response. Real places and city services are vulnerable to hackers, but we can protect our water, power, transportation, and other vital systems.

28 The End of Public Promises? Governments and the Pension Deficit Disorder By Rob Bencini

Generous public employee retirement benefits and other vestiges of the past are severely straining state and local government budgets. In order to survive, the public sector may have to learn how to operate in an era that doesn’t promise eternal growth.

43 Game Plan for a Future-Ready Workforce An Interview with Ed Gordon

The author of Future Jobs discusses the book’s mission to upgrade education systems and to connect skilled workers with new job prospects.

47 Futurists Explore the Next Horizon By Rick Docksai

Bold ideas about humanity’s future went on full display at the World Future Society’s annual conference. Approximately 700 attendees debated game-changing developments like self-driving cars and 3-D printers, and speculated on where our world is heading and how it might get there.

64 Future View: Evolution or Extinction? Humanity’s Future Legacy By Jan Taylor

With our growing ability to impact life on this planet, for better and for worse, we must consider more deeply the unanticipated consequences of our technological choices, a zoologist warns.

33 Outlook 2014

Species long extinct may one day be revived. Doctors will detect signs of brain disorders many years before symptoms emerge. And consumers will give up owning stuff in order to lighten the loads of their lifestyles. These are just a few of the most thought-provoking possibilities and ideas published in THE FUTURIST magazine over the past year.

Connecting everything. Page 16

COVER ILLUSTRATION: © ALEKSANDAR VELASEVIC / ISTOCKPHOTO

© 2013 World Future Society. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part without written permission is prohibited. THE FUTURIST is a registered trademark of the World Future Society. Printed in the U.S.A. THE FUTURIST (ISSN 0016-3317) is published bimonthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Included with membership in the World Future Society (dues: $79 per year for individuals; $20 for full-time students under age 25). Subscriptions for libraries and other institutions are $89 annually. Periodicals postage paid at Bethesda, Maryland, and additional mailing offices. • POSTMASTER: Send address changes to THE FUTURIST, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. • OWNERSHIP: THE FUTURIST is owned exclusively by the World Future Society, a nonpartisan educational and scientific organization incorporated in the District of Columbia and recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a nonprofit taxexempt organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code. • CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Write or call Membership Department at the Society. 1-800-989-8274.

Tomorrow

in brief COURTESY OF ELIZABETH SHADWICK, DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY

Dalhousie University oceanography PhD graduate Elizabeth Shadwick aboard a zodiac, preparing to conduct research.

Arctic Is More Vulnerable Than Antarctic The Earth’s environment is vulnerable to disruption at both its poles, but the Antarctic might have an advantage over its northern counterpart. Comparing the polar oceans, scientists at Dalhousie University in Canada found that the Arctic Ocean is more acidic and warmer in the summer months. The Antarctic has a greater concentration of surface nutrients, which may help reduce the extent of ocean acidification in that area.

Increased temperatures and concentrations of carbon dioxide in the oceans affect the food chain, specifically to the detriment of carbonate shellforming species. This threatens future food supplies for humans in the more-populated Arctic region, and decades earlier than the effect will be felt in the Antarctic, the researchers warn. Source: Dalhousie University, www.dal.ca.

Smartwatch Watches Over Sleepers Sleep deficit may be a bigtwitching, or other behaviors, ger contributor to burnout than then reports the anomalies instress, according to researchstantly for analysis. ers, but undergoing sleep studIt will also turn off the TV ies to help their condition is itonce it knows you’ve drifted self stressful to many patients. off, easing your slumber. Soon, they may be able to wear a smartwatch that moniSource: Fraunhofer Institute for tors micro-movements while Computer Graphics Research IGD, they sleep in their own beds. www.fraunhofer.de/en. The smart© FRAUNHOFER IGD watch—developed by scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research IGD in Germany— uses sleep-recognition algorithms to detect changes to Smartwatch’s sleep-recognition algorithms promthe sleeper’s ise to facilitate sleep studies. breathing, leg

Sweden Fuels Up on Biomass A third of Sweden’s transport sector could be running on agricultural waste, residue from forestry operations, and other biomass sources by 2030, as the country aims to increase its domestic biofuel production by tenfold. A report signed by the Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transport Fuels says that it is technologically feasible now to increase the country’s annual biofuel production to as much as 25-35 terawatt hours.

Biofuel advocates often face opposition from those worried about the loss of agricultural resources for food production, such as the diversion of corn to ethanol. But by focusing on improving sustainable energy production systems and not just types of biofuel sources, Swedish researchers believe that the long-term goals of reducing dependence on fossil fuels and making transportation “carbon neutral” can be met. Source: Bio4energy, bio4energy.se.

Changing the Shape of Robotics Our image of future robots as humanlike (or buglike) beings may have to be pushed aside. Get rid of those arms, legs, end-effectors, and all- terrain tractor treads, and behold the Rosphere—a round robot developed at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. The spherical robot is propelled internally with the same mechanical principles as a hamster playing in an exercise globe. Its ability to roll freely along on uneven ground may be useful in a variety of settings, as seen in its first tests collecting envi-

ronmental data in bumpy rows of crops. Source: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, www.upm.es. UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID

Navigating the rough rows of a maize field may be easier for a spherical robot than a legged one.

WordBuzz: Selfie … a term spotted recently in the caption of a New Yorker cartoon depicting patrons at a museum examining “one of Rembrandt’s earliest selfies”— i.e., self-portraits. The Know Your Meme Web site (a menu item on Cheezburger.com) notes that the term has been common slang for nearly a decade, but selfie seems to have achieved full memehood in 2013—perhaps due in part to the private selfies of public figures. When social networking sites began springing up on the Internet, allowing (or requiring) users to post profile pictures of themselves, some teenagers apparently without real-life friends to photograph

them were forced to turn their digital cameras on themselves. The amateurish and often comical results were disparagingly called selfies. As many trend watchers know, teenagers are often the early adopters (if not the originators) of fads that eventually evolve into mainstream trends. And with more image- and lifesharing opportunities emerging, camera and phone designers took note, creating selfie-friendly models with front-facing lenses. Smile! Sources: Cartoon by B.T. Schwartz in The New Yorker (June 24, 2013). Know Your Meme, knowyourmeme .com/memes/selfie.

About

this

Issue

A Publication of the World Future Society

Editorial Staff Edward Cornish Founding Editor

Cynthia G. Wagner Editor

Patrick Tucker Deputy Editor

Rick Docksai Associate Editor

Keturah Hetrick Editorial Assistant

Lane Jennings Research Director

Lisa Mathias Art Director

Contributing Editors Clement Bezold, Government Tsvi Bisk, Strategic Thinking Irving H. Buchen, Training Peter Eder, Marketing and Communications Thomas Frey, Innovation Joyce Gioia, Workforce/Workplace Jay Herson, Futurist Community Barbara Marx Hubbard, Images of Man Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting Matt Novak, Historical Futures Joseph N. Pelton, Telecommunications Arthur B. Shostak, Utopian Thought David P. Snyder, Lifestyles Gene Stephens, Criminal Justice Timothy Willard, Biofutures Richard Yonck, Computing and AI

Contact Us Letters to the Editor: letters@wfs.org Subscription/Address Change: info@wfs.org Advertising: jcornish@wfs.org Submissions/Queries: cwagner@wfs.org Permission/Reprints: jcornish@wfs.org Back Issues/Bulk Copies: jcornish@wfs.org Press/Media Inquiries: ptucker@wfs.org Partnerships/Affiliations: tmack@wfs.org Conference Inquiries: swarner@wfs.org Anything Else: info@wfs.org THE FUTURIST World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Hours: 9 a.m.–5 p.m. eastern time, weekdays except U.S. holidays Telephone: 301-656-8274 or 800-989-8274 Fax: 301-951-0394 www.wfs.org/futurist

Connectivity and Its Discontents One of the concepts that futurists have been buzzing more about in recent years is the Internet of Things—the idea that interactive communication will extend beyond people and organizations to include objects communicating with each other. For instance, sensors buried on water pipelines would notify a city’s sanitation department if a leak may be imminent. But another possibility might be that our environment starts tattling on us when it knows we’ve misbehaved. Breaking doctor’s orders by stopping off for a doughnut could get you banned from entering the city, and your self-driving car could deposit you at the gym instead of the office. In “Connecting with Our Connected World,” Richard Yonck outlines some of the dramatic changes we can expect as we move from an Internet of Things to an Internet of Everything. (See page 16.) One consequence of this connectivity at the local level will be cities that are both more secure and more vulnerable to cyberattacks, according to Indu B. Singh and Joseph N. Pelton, authors of The Safe City: Living Free in a Dangerous World. While many people worry about the intrusiveness of public officials snooping on private e-mails, phone calls, and other communications, the risks from attackers should be of greater concern: “Unauthorized access to telecommunications links could result in the derailing of trains, back pumping of raw sewage into drinking water systems, shutting down of power plants, shutting down 911 emergency systems, stopping elevators, or shutting off critical services to hospitals and airports,” they warn. “In fact, these types of attacks could be launched all at the same time without warning.” (See “Securing the Cyber City of the Future,” page 22.) And if that weren’t enough for cities and other local governments to worry about, there is the fiscal crisis that many of them brought on themselves by making promises to employees that they simply cannot keep. In “The End of Public Promises? Governments and the Pension Deficit Disorder,” Rob Bencini points to Detroit’s recent woes as a case study. (See page 28.) Also in this issue are our two annual reports: “Outlook 2014,” a roundup of the most thought-provoking forecasts appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year (page 33), and “Futurists Explore the Next Horizon” by associate editor Rick Docksai, a report on the World Future Society’s 2013 annual meeting, held in Chicago this past July (page 47). —Cynthia G. Wagner, Editor cwagner@wfs.org

Feedback people with [a] quest for education in this world will give a big boost to this. This will happen especially in the Asian and African continents soon.

Re: “Jobs and Workplace Processes” in Top 10 Disappearing Futures Michele Martin (@michelemmartin): Excellent info on the impact of

tech on jobs!

Mike Jewsbury (@MVMNT_Mike):

I n t e re s t i n g , b u t e x a m p l e s n o t thought through. Harold Jarche (@hjarche, in reply to @MVMNT_Mike): No, but these points connect to a wide variety of corroborative articles in my knowledge network, so still useful. Re: “The End of Grade Point Averages” by Dan Tuuri, in Top 10 Disappearing Futures (SeptemberOctober 2013) World Future Society (@WorldFutureSoc, via Twitter): Will badges re-

place grades? What do you think?

Robert Moran (@robertpmoran):

They may replace other credentials.

John Watts (@John_T_Watts): It certainly provides more flexibility in identifying individuals’ achievement of specific learning outcomes. Re: “Whatever Happened to Free Will?” by Richard Yonck, in Top 10 Disappearing Futures

Citizen Science (via wfs

Re: “Mapping the Future with Big Data” by Patrick Tucker (JulyAugust 2013) Francis Rabuck (via LinkedIn): Not sure I’d call ESRI a small, unknown company. Maybe in the social/consumer space, but not in almost any business. If you believe the often stated number that 80% of all data contain geospatial components, then ESRI dominates the space. Only Google with its maps is larger—and that is from a more consumer-centric perspective. The GIS industry is amazing and continues to see many small companies constantly popping up and creating new features. Nice to include GIS data as part of our future from a data perspective.

Chrystal Ocean (@tidewaters):

Not sure that I care if my path [is] predetermined. Living the path matters most, despite who/what chose it & [as long as] it feels choice is mine. Re: “Stores” in Top 10 Disappearing Futures @WorldFutureSoc: Dwindling supply of prime retail spots + rise of demo docks = Disappearing Future 5: Stores Antonio Dileo (@AntonioDileo_1):

One just needs to look @amazon and the model @jeffbezos had conceptualized almost 20 years ago and continues to develop.

Re: “The Rise of Citizen Science” by Kathleen Toerpe (July-August 2013) Peter Wood (via wfs.org): There is the field of scientific tourism—e.g., volunteers and holiday-minded tourists, who pay to participate with or observe scientists [in] action. This is a subset of citizen science but also generates revenue for science and environmental management. Monoj Hazarika (via wfs.org): There will be tremendous increase of knowledge and information in near future in this world due to this development of citizen science. For this we need to promote “citizen science” in each and every nook and corner if possible. The growing numbers of

.org): This is a great summary of how things have progressed to date. Thank you. Another good resource on this is the blog CitizenScienceCenter.com Paul (via e-mail): After reading the article “The Rise of Citizen Science” by Kathleen Toerpe, a question comes to mind. I have been an amateur futurist all my waking life. Does your e-zine have citizen scientists? If it’s possible for educated scientists to collaborate with citizens, then there is hope for people like me, an amateur futurist. Excellent article. Educating the Future: Author Rob Bencini Replies

In his response published in September-October 2013 to my article, “Educating the Future: The End of Mediocrity” (March-April 2013), Michael Sales took statements out of context to make specious points. My article contained no dismissal of college education. I have a firm knowledge of the benefits of a college experience, and the benefits of education at all levels were abundantly stated in the piece. The point is that the education marketplace will become increasingly intolerant of that which the buyer—i.e., each of us—considers mediocre. Whether it is considered hyper debt-inducing, unfulfilling to the student’s workplace needs, or merely mundane, mediocrity is on its way out. Better choices will be available, and will dominate. ❑

Officers

Staff

President: Timothy C. Mack

Director of Communications: Patrick Tucker

Treasurer: Carol D. Rieg

Business and Advertising Manager: Jeff Cornish

Secretary: Kenneth W. Harris

Conference Director: Sarah Warner Conference Coordinator: Tom Warner

Directors Bob Chernow (vice chairman) CEO, The Tellier Foundation

Edward Cornish founder and former president, World Future Society

Nancy Donovan senior analyst, U.S. Government Accountability Office

Joyce Gioia president and CEO, The Herman Group

John Gottsman president, The Clarity Group

Kenneth W. Harris chairman, The Consilience Group LLC

Kenneth W. Hunter (chairman) senior fellow, Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

Timothy C. Mack president, World Future Society

Clement Bezold

Julio Millán

chairman and senior futurist,

president, Banco de Tecnologias, and

Institute for Alternative Futures

chairman, Grupo Coraza, Mexico

Arnold Brown

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

chairman, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

visiting senior research fellow, ISEAS, Singapore

Adolfo Castilla

Ramez Naam

economist, communications professor, Madrid

computer scientist and author

Marvin J. Cetron

John Naisbitt

president, Forecasting International Ltd.

trend analyst and author

Hugues de Jouvenel

Burt Nanus

executive director, Association

author and professor emeritus of management,

Internationale Futuribles

University of Southern California

Yehezkel Dror

Joseph N. Pelton

professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

founder and vice chairman,

Esther Franklin

Arthur C. Clarke Foundation

executive vice president and director of cultural

Timothy M. Persons

identities, Starcom MediaVest Group

chief scientist, U.S. Government Accountability Office

William E. Halal

John L. Petersen

professor of management science and

president, The Arlington Institute

Eric Meade

director of Emerging Technologies Project,

senior futurist and vice president,

George Washington University

Institute for Alternative Futures

Peter Hayward

Mylena Pierremont

program director, Strategic Foresight Program,

president, Ming Pai Consulting BV

Swinburne University of Technology, Australia

Carol D. Rieg

Barbara Marx Hubbard

corporate foundation officer, Bentley Systems Inc.

president, The Foundation for Conscious Evolution

Les Wallace

Sohail Inayatullah

president, Signature Resources Inc.

professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan

Jared Weiner

Zhouying Jin

vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

president, Beijing Academy of Soft Technology

Global Advisory Council

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

Stephen Aguilar-Millan

professor emerita, Faculty of Social Sciences, Gregorian University, Rome

European Futures Observatory

Sandra L. Postel director, Global Water Policy Project

Francis Rabuck director, Technology Research, Bentley Systems Inc.

Paul Saffo managing director of foresight, Discern Analytics

Robert Salmon former vice president, L’Oreal Corporation, Paris

Marcio de Miranda Santos executive director, Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Brasilia, Brazil

Maurice F. Strong secretary general, U.N. Conference on Environment and Development

Graham May

Raja Ikram Azam

principal lecturer in futures research,

honorary chairman, Pakistan Futuristics Foundation

Leeds Metropolitan University, U.K.

Raj Bawa

Alvin Toffler author

Heidi Toffler

president/patent agent, Bawa Biotech LLC, and

author

adjunct professor, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific association dedicated to promoting a better understanding of the trends shaping our future. Founded in 1966, the Society serves as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future; it takes no stand on what the future will or should be like. The Society’s publications, conferences, and other activities are open to all individuals and institutions around the world. For more information on membership programs, contact Society headquarters Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time. 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone: 1-301-656-8274, Toll free: 1-800-989-8274, Fax: 1-301-951-0394 Web site: www.wfs.org • E-mail: info@wfs.org

World Trends & Forecasts Organizational Change • Information Society • Psychology • Species

Organizational Change | Commerce

Adaptation Is Job One Businesses need to prepare for the impacts of extreme weather and disruptive climate change.

By Joerg Schrottke, Sandra Niewiem, Thomas Weber, and Wiebke Hoffmann Reducing greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change has long been on the agenda for many companies. Now, across industries and around the world, recent natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy in the northeast United States have made a stronger case for learning how to adapt to the new and severe weather conditions that climate change is already bringing. Even under the most ambitious mitigation projections, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase, as will temperatures and sea levels. Surface air warming is projected to be 1.8°C at minimum—or as much as 4.0°C. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation are very likely to become more frequent. Future typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense. Changes in the polar ice sheets could raise sea levels by a meter by 2100, putting 10% of the world’s population at risk. Tuvalu, an island nation threatened with imminent impacts from sea level rise, has already arranged to retreat to New Zealand when necessary. But Tuvalu is just one of the most proactive political entities. Hundreds of costal megacities like Los Angeles, Mumbai, Bangkok, Manila, and Sidney are also at risk and may require movement of population with rising sea levels. Among other impacts, hotter temperatures and more severe storms and droughts are likely to damage transportation infrastructure, as well as agricultural yields. Warming temperatures, precipitation changes, and sea level rise will likely affect water supply and quality. Air quality is also likely to worsen, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses. And extreme events will threaten safety and health.

Businesses need to recognize the fragility of modern supply chains. For instance, after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a General Motors truck plant in Louisiana was forced to shut down temporarily due to lack of Japanese-made parts. Confronting the emissions that lead to climate change can take two paths: mitigation or adaptation. Mitigation aims to reduce the magnitude of climate change itself through a combination of strategies, such as reducing emissions by generating fewer greenhouse gases in the first place or offsetting emissions through carbon capture, sequestration, and other tactics. Mitigation long dominated the climate change policy discussion. Adaptation, on the other hand, does not seek to remove or offset the underlying causes of climate change’s impacts—it instead involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to those impacts. Adaptation is becoming a more widely accepted and promoted effort, particularly as major global mitigation initiatives continue to flounder. Even in the case of a sudden breakthrough in the climate talks and agreed reductions, the level of carbon in the atmosphere will continue to grow. The only question is just how much slowing of growth that can be agreed upon. While policy makers are integral to setting the agendas for adaptation at the city, state, and country level, companies in a variety of industries will also be integral to helping the world survive and thrive. Infrastructure resilience is the most readily identifiable area for adaptation: Low-lying cities are raising freeways and homes, building defenses against rising waters, and even organizing a “managed retreat.” These preparations will come at enormous costs to cities, and in many cases governments need to partner with firms that can plan and execute necessary infrastructure changes and new construction.

Even before Superstorm Sandy barreled through, Consolidated Edison, the utility company supplying electricity to most of New York City, began gradually installing submersible switches and moving highvoltage transformers above g ro u n d l e v e l i n s o m e areas. The city’s subway system was considering plans to increase pumping capacity at stations, raise entrances, and design floodgates to block water from entering. Much opportunity also lies in developing countries where low-lying, densely populated cities will be hit particularly hard by climate change. For example, global ce- The Jersey Shore reopens after destruction from Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Organizations need to ment company Cemex is make adaptation to climate change a business priority, warn consultants. developing low-cost, climate-resilient housing in Mexico, with a view to expanding to other markets. storms, and other severe weather that, over the last five Industrial waterfronts with chemical-manufacturing years, have led to claims almost as high as those along plants, oil-storage sites, and garbage-transfer stations the Gulf coast. This situation is problematic for homewill also need to be protected or moved. Protecting exowners and insurers alike, as high potential costs inisting water sources and creating new ones will be crucrease the risks on all sides of the equation. cial. Additional reservoirs and dams will be needed to Climate change is also creating certain new business increase storage capacity, as will more efficient water prospects, such as commercial shipping and resource recycling and conservation technologies. exploration. It has finally made the speedy sea route To help farmers and ranchers cope with increasingly from the Atlantic to the Pacific through the Northeast intense heat and drought, German chemical giant BASF Passage possible for a few months each summer. The and American agricultural biotechnology company new trip from Asia to Europe cuts about 10 days from a Monsanto are collaborating to develop drought-toler30-day trip, reducing fuel costs and time to market. ant seeds with a larger root mass, which allows them to While unpredictable ice makes time-sensitive trips less reach deeper for water and hold more in reserve. Cerlikely at this point, it is less of a problem for dry bulk tain varieties also are capable of rolling up their leaves goods. As the Northeast Passage becomes feasible for to slow moisture loss. And researchers at Texas A&M commercial journeys, ice-class cargo ships with an exUniversity are teaming with ranchers to develop cattle tra layer of steel will be in increasingly high demand. with genes traced to animals from Africa and India And as the new route comes into use, the Artic will be with natural tolerance to heat and drought. open for new port complexes as well as more oil and Some industries may face a more complicated road to gas exploration and extraction (ironically, contributing adaptation than others—with insurance being a prime to the need for greenhouse gas mitigation and adapexample. In Florida, the home insurance market is altion). Opportunities: Companies should consider how their ready partly government-run because high property customer base will be impacted by the various effects values and intense storms make insuring homes inof climate change, and how they can position themcreasingly risky. Yet, as firms departed Florida and selves to solve these problems. Energy, water construcother risky areas for historically lower-risk markets, tion, and infrastructure businesses will clearly play a such as the U.S. Midwest, they ran into tornadoes, hail-

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THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

World Trends & Forecasts key role in supplying and protecting communities around the world for a future of higher sea levels, longer droughts, and harsher storms. Companies that proactively develop products and services for challenges will be well positioned to grow in this market. Challenges: Many companies will be just as at risk to many climate change impacts as their customers. Firms should consider potential impacts across their entire supply and value chain. Climate change may disrupt production processes and service delivery, make facilities more vulnerable, affect the availability of raw materials and components, and disrupt electricity and water supply. Demographic movements compelled by weather may even change the location of the future labor force, with some at-risk areas depopulating. Operations that require constant water supply, such as paper factories, may need to be relocated. Regardless of industry, companies need to factor in necessary adaptation strategies that can reduce costs and risks into strategic planning processes. Those that can become more nimble and resilient in responding to future threats will have the best chance of surviving a continually changing environment. Joerg Schrottke is a partner in the Munich office of A.T. Kearney. Sandra Niewiem is a principal in the Frankfurt office of A.T. Kearney. Thomas Weber is a principal in the Frankfurt office of A.T. Kearney. Wiebke Hoffmann is a consultant in the Stuttgart office of A.T. Kearney.

Information Society | Sci/Tech

Smarter Software’s Impacts On Human Privacy

derstand us as well as that government employee might? At present, there is no computer program that can perfectly interpret human speech, although attempts at solving this problem have spanned five decades. Humans can intuitively comprehend the difference in meaning between words; computers cannot. Several elements factor into determining a sentence’s meaning— context, syntax, and logic, for instance, all help us to understand what is being conveyed. Past attempts to help computers better understand language involved manually coding definitions of words onto disc or memory. This method has yielded little by way of concrete results for the simple reason that language is a lot more complex than mere dictionary definitions. “I think it’s fair to say that this hasn’t been successful. There are just too many little things that humans know,” says Katrin Erk, a University of Texas at Austin linguistics professor and co-author of the recent study “Montague Meets Markov: Deep Semantics with Probabilistic Logical Form,” presented at the Second Joint Conference on Lexical and Computational Semantics in Atlanta in June. Programming dictionary definitions is a challenge. Definitions are not always clear-cut, and variation in definitions from one dictionary to another adds to this problem. The solution, the researchers hypothesized, was found not in dictionary definitions but in paraphrasing and the use of more flexible definitions. Erk and her colleagues combined two distinct approaches to attack the problem. The first piece was Montague grammar (named after philosopher and mathematician Richard Montague), which uses a formal system of first-order logic, a systematic method of

credit card charges

When computers figure out what you’re saying, will they care? Will you? If the content of your e-mail or a transcript of your phone conversations were being read by someone working for the government, you might consider that a violation of privacy. But most people understand that computer programs and algorithms, such as the Google Adsense program, constantly analyze not only our communications’ metadata (whom we spoke to, from where, for how long, etc.), but also, often, the literal content of those exchanges. What happens to privacy when an algorithm can un-

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criminal charges

the nanny led her charges across the street

the newspaper published charges …

battery charge The many meanings of “charge.” Chart courtesy of University of Texas, Austin.

word-meaning models, and first-order logic to predict machine learning where a programmer assigns rigid sentences’ meanings. The supercomputer correctly premeanings based on syntax and each word’s definition. dicted meanings with up to 85% Erk combined Montague’s method accuracy. with a model of distributional, or The research was funded by the vector-space, semantics called a “If I give you a sentence such as, Defense Advanced Research ProjMarkov model. This approach ‘This is a bright child,’ the model ects Agency (DARPA). Originally maps words based on closeness of created in 1958 as a reaction to the meaning. Semantically similar can tell you automatically what Soviet Union’s Sputnik launch, words are placed closer together, are good paraphrases (‘an intelliDARPA is the Defense Department while words with more distant gent child’) and what are bad agency responsible for developing meanings are further apart. new technology for military use. “We use a gigantic 10,000-dimen- paraphrases (‘a glaring child’). According to Raymond Mooney tional space with all these different This is quite useful in language of the University of Texas at Auspoints for each word to predict technology.” tin, “DARPA’s been investing in paraphrases,” explains Erk. “If I —Katrin Erk, University of Texas, Austin natural language processing for a give you a sentence such as, ‘This very long time. The obvious appliis a bright child,’ the model can tell cation that there’s always pushing you automatically what are good on is intelligence gathering. They paraphrases (‘an intelligent child’) want to be able to have computers that can read all the and what are bad paraphrases (‘a glaring child’). This is newspapers all over the world and then compile all of quite useful in language technology.” the events that are happening so that intelligence offiThe Texas Advanced Computing Center’s Longhorn cers can query that effectively to answer questions.” supercomputer used grammar and syntax analysis,

A provocative tour of cutting-edge nanotechnology and its implications, by the field’s founder and master “ Nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler bids us to leap in at the technological deep end. We can transform the way we make everything from bridges to circuit boards, he argues, by harnessing molecular machines that operate on digital principles. The result? Desktop or garage facilities that use less fuel, land and energy than today’s vast factories and supply chains. The technical and political challenges of unleashing ‘atomically precise manufacturing’ are substantial, but Drexler cuts deftly through the complexities.” —Nature Magazine

Available in hardcover and e-book from www.publicaffairsbooks.com

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World Trends & Forecasts As is the case with any technology, potential exists for abuse. “I’m optimistic that this will be put to good use. But are there ways that the technology could be abused in various ways? Sure,” says Mooney. DARPA did not respond to requests for comment on this story. Peter Eckersley, director of technology projects at the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), details the implications that a semantic search program could have for personal privacy. In particular, he notes the possibility of misuse, especially in the wake of the recent scandal involving the National Security Agency’s (NSA)’s monitoring of users’ metadata. If prior circumstances are any indication, the potential for information collection—and subsequent use of that information—is great. Eckersley points out that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) issued a single warrant that allowed the NSA to collect vast sers. amounts of metadata about Verizon cell-phone u “Once that’s been disclosed, the NSA can do whatever it wants with that data,” Eckersley says. Presumably, the government could issue a warrant of similar scope to analyze private information using semantic searches. “It’s intrusive to have algorithms scanning your e‑mail. And it’s more intrusive to have smarter algorithms scanning your e‑mail. We should be concerned about the privacy implications of both of these cases, but the danger clearly gets worse as the software gets smarter,” he says. Even people who consider themselves boring and of no interest to the government should be concerned, according to Eckersley. “They’re not going to spend the time to catch that one little thing, that one little secret that they have, that they don’t want to share,” he says. “If there’s an algorithm that can effectively read everyone’s communications in incredible depth, then any reassurance of that is gone.” On the other hand, Mooney believes that such technology likely will not be at the government’s disposal anytime soon. “This is an incremental step, but it certainly isn’t the end-all be-all of understanding language,” he says. Mooney estimates that the field has another half century of work ahead of itself before computers are fully capable of comprehending what we say. —Keturah Hetrick Sources: Interviews with Raymond Mooney, University of Texas; Peter Eckersley, Electronic Frontier Foundation. “Montague Meets Markov: Deep Semantics with Probabilistic Logical Form” by Islam Beltagy, Cuong Chau, Gemma Boleda, Dan Garrette, Katrin Erk, and Raymond Mooney. Presented at SEM2013.

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Widow receives grief counseling.

Psychology | Humanity

A Requiem for Lost Futures We grieve for unattainable futures just as we grieve for unalterable pasts. The manner in which we experience trauma, and how we remember the past, can determine our ability to visualize the future. Individuals who had lost a spouse or a loved one and who were suffering from “complicated grief” showed tremendous difficulty envisioning a future for themselves without their loved one, according to Harvard researchers Don Robinaugh and Richard McNally. Those individuals were better able to envision a future with their departed spouse, even though that future was impossible. Robinaugh and McNally’s study further highlights the complicated interrelationship between memory and the mental process of visualizing the future. Psychologists have long known that traumatic life events can affect the way we remember the past. Sigmund Freud’s theory of repressed memory suggested that the conscious human mind blocks the recall of traumatic events. While some scientists have refuted much of Freud’s work (indeed, many people remember trauma acutely), we do know that people recall things differently, depending on the context they are in and what they are specifically trying to do. We alter our memories constantly depending on where we are, what we’ve just been through, and the circumstances under which we

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body of research showing that we actually grieve for the future as though it is the past. In his 2010 paper, “The Proactive Brain: Using Analogies and Associations to Generate Predictions,” neuroscientist Moshe Bar provides a partial explanation for why this is. “Both real and simulated memories could be helpful later in the future by providing approximated scripts for thought and action,” he writes [emphasis added]. In other words, how we remember predicts what we’re going to do next. Robinaugh agrees. “When you lose a loved one, a major aspect of what you are losing is all the moments that you imagined you would have with that individual in the future,” said Robinaugh in an interview. “Samuel Johnson described the experience of bereavement as ‘a whole system of hopes, and designs, and expectations … swept away at once and nothing left but bottomless vacuity,’” Robinaugh noted. “Our findings suggest that, for individuals who experience complicated grief, this system of hopes and designs and expectations is held on to for a long time after the loss, even as the future (as it could realistically occur) remains difficult to perceive.”

are being asked to remember. For their study, clinical psychology graduate student Robinaugh and psychology professor McNally worked with 33 volunteers who had lost a spouse. About half were suffering from complicated grief, a psychological state marked by severe emotional distress and feelings of attachment for a lost loved one. Robinaugh and McNally asked some of the subjects to recall or imagine important events from their own life with the deceased, such as being together on a wedding day, a child’s birth, etc. They asked others to recall events from their own life that did not include the deceased. Previous research on complicated grief has shown that sufferers face difficulty recalling aspects of their own life, but can more easily recall episodes involving their lost partner. Robinaugh and McNally took this research to the next level and asked the grieving participants to imagine future events or tasks for themselves, and also to imagine future events or tasks with their spouse. The participants could more easily picture undertaking future events with their spouse than without, even though these futures were impossible. Robinaugh and McNally’s work supports FT_FuthureAD:Layout 1 8/20/13 4:21 PMa growing Page 1

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World Trends & Forecasts In the years ahead, it may be able possible to measure the “trauma” of a spousal death, a breakup, a forced career change, or other stressful event on the basis of how established that relationship was in a person’s perceived future. That could help individuals protect themselves from depression and complicated grief. “Being mindful of the way in which we are perceiving the future can certainly have a large impact on how we react to the negative events in our lives. Perhaps most notably, I think maintaining an ability to think flexibly about the future may be very valuable when recovering from stress or loss,” said Robinaugh. —Patrick Tucker Sources: Donald J. Robinaugh (interview). “Remembering the Past and Envisioning the Future in Bereaved Adults With and Without Complicated Grief” by Donald J. Robinaugh and Richard J. McNally, Clinical Psychological Science, March 18, 2013. “Mourning That Vexes the Future” by Peter Reuell, Harvard Gazette, May 10, 2013. “The Proactive Brain: Using Analogies and Associations to Generate Predictions” by Moshe Bar, TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 7.

Species | Earth

A Madding Crowd’s Ignoble Strife Growing human populations may drive more animal species toward extinction. Nearly 11% more species could be threatened by 2050 in nations that experience average human population

growth, according to a new study from Ohio State University (OSU). A key factor is not just sheer numbers of people, but their increased density, especially in places that other species share. World population, now standing at 7.1 billion people, is expected to grow to 9.6 billion by the middle of this century, with impacts that will be felt by other creatures sharing the planet. The study, led by OSU anthropology professor Jeffrey McKee, examined the effects that human population size, growth, and density have on on mammal and bird diversity. “If we get to 11 billion people, which is where we’re supposed to peak, then the amount of space you have per person is a lot smaller,” McKee points out. “When you’re left with less space, there’s virtually no space left for most other species.” Because information about mammal and bird populations is more complete than that of other animal species, the study considered mammal and bird species only. Also, the findings take into account the numbers and densities of human population only, omitting such factors as climate change, industrialization, and wars. The model was tested using human and animal population data from 2000 and 2010 and then applied to human population projections for 2020 and 2050. The researchers used animal species data from the United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s Animals of the World Database and human population data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s world database. The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List was referenced in tracking threatened species. After accounting for nation size and species richness, both of which affect the number of threatened species, researchers concluded that human population growth had a significant impact on mammal and bird diversity. By 2020, countries with growing populations will expe© 5XINC / ISTOCKPHOTO

A growing human population may spell bad news for biodiversity.

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can already be seen in countries with declining populations. The researchers suggest that one approach to protecting other species is to focus conservation efforts in those places where human density is less of a problem. Population growth is “one of the biggest concerns of this century,” says McKee. “Part of the resistance to addressing the problem is that human population size and growth is difficult to talk about and difficult to do anything about. To keep the human population in check, you have two options: increase the death rate or decrease the birthrate. I think the latter is the better choice.” —Keturah Hetrick

rience, on average, a 3.3% increase in threatened species. By 2050, they project a 10.8% increase. The United States ranks among the nations posing high risk to species due to growing human density: The researchers project that 11 new species will be threatened with extinction in the United States by 2050. The Democratic Republic of Congo tops the list, with a projection of 20 new species threatened. In countries with declining human populations, a modest 2.5% fewer species will become threatened by midcentury than if their human populations remain stable. “There is no doubt that a multitude of factors go into diminishing the availability of resources that mammals and birds need to survive,” notes the paper. “Yet human population density is demonstrably at the core of extinction threats to mammals and birds.” Human population isn’t expected to increase forever, as

Sources: Ohio State University, www.osu.edu; “Human Population Density and Growth Validated as Extinction Threats to Mammal and Bird Species” by Jeffrey McKee, Erica Chambers, and Julie Guseman, ❑ Human Ecology, June 2013.

The “bot revolution” that started on Wall Street has now spread to all corners of our lives. Music that sounds as if it could have been written by Bach was, in fact, composed by an algorithm. The best analysis at the CIA doesn’t come from experienced agents, but from an algorithm. The best mind reader in the world is a set of five million algorithms that knows what you’ll do in almost any situation.  Automate This shows how we got here. “Steiner excels at bringing a dry subject to life.”—The Financial Times “Read this book if you want to understand the most powerful force shaping the world today and tomorrow.”—Andrew McAfee, Principal Research Scientist, MIT “A fascinating exploration of how the mathematics behind automated trading revolutionized business worldwide.”—USA Today

Visit www.chrissteiner.com Now in paperback from Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Group.

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Connecting with Our Connected World We can only really communicate with a tiny fraction of our personal and global environment. But our world and

By Richard Yonck

our experience of it are poised to change

Whether it’s biological cells, electronic systems, or communities of people, networks increase in value as the number of nodes and connections grow. As Metcalfe’s law suggests, increased connectedness can lead to increased value and usefulness. For many millennia, our ability to communicate was limited to those people with whom we could physically meet and interact. Writing and the ability to create records transcended this limitation, allowing us to communicate with others separated from us by physical space and even time. With the telegraph and telephone, near real-time two-way communication with nearly anyone, anywhere on the planet, became possible. Our growing interconnectivity has allowed us to share knowledge and ideas, which in turn has advanced society even further. But it was the development of the Internet that really accelerated this process. Perhaps equally important, our inventions made it possible to improve our communication with the physical world in the form of remote sensors and other telemetry. As compute r s p ro c e s s m o re i n p u t f ro m satellites, sensors, radio-tagged devices, and so on, it’s been estimated more than 40% of all data will be entirely machine-generated by 2020;

dramatically as everything becomes increasingly interconnected. Here’s what we can expect in the coming era of the “Internet of Things.”

that is up from 11% in 2005, according to the 2012 IDC Digital Universe report. This trend will likely continue for some time. With ever more devices coming online, people will become less directly involved in the vast majority of communications. Information will be exchanged solely by devices in what’s referred to as M2M or m achine-to-machine communication. In certain respects, this is just as well, since much of this data will be transferred and acted upon at speeds many orders of magnitude faster than human thought. Such increased connectivity will undoubtedly have unintended consequences and repercussions. Our challenge will be to maintain control of something that we haven’t di-

rectly created ourselves, that makes the world run faster, and that is even more intricately connected than our own brains. Impacts of Increased Connections Since the 1980s, Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) has provided unique numeric addresses for each of the world’s Internet-linked devices. This protocol has the potential for 232 or some 4.29 billion addresses—a number that seemed inexhaustible at a time when the Internet was just taking off. As early as the 1990s, it was already becoming apparent that IPv4’s 32-bit address space was going to be inadequate for future growth. So work was begun on what would

eventually become IPv6, a 128-bit protocol. This allows for 2128 unique addresses or 340 trillion trillion trillion—28 orders of magnitude greater than IPv4! Even with the explosive growth that will continue with the Internet of Things (IoT), this protocol should be usable for many decades, if not centuries to come. In the meantime, following the principles stated by Moore’s law, computation devices are getting smaller, cheaper, and more powerful. The Michigan Micro Mote, or M3, for example, is an ultra-low-power prototype designed by researchers at the University of Michigan. Less than a cubic millimeter—about the size of a grain of sand—it includes a processor, data storage, sensors, and wireless communication, and it harvests

its power via a solar cell. Though still in the lab, M3 demonstrates that we’re rapidly approaching a new era of computing. As a result of these advances, we can foresee a day not very many years off when such chips will shrink to the size of a speck of dust. “Smart dust,” as it is often called, will follow economies of scale similar to earlier processors, with unit p ro d u c t i o n c o s t s p l u m m e t i n g toward zero. These tiny circuits will give rise to a world that is connected in ways that would have been difficult to imagine not that many years ago. Everything from roads and bridges to household appliances and food products will soon be able to communicate via the Internet. Informawww.wfs.org

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tion about stresses and deformation will let us anticipate infrastructure failure before it happens. Even hillsides and streams—the natural environment—will be connected. Flow rates and measurements of soil movement will aid us in understanding and protecting our natural resources. Devices in the home will be able to order their own supplies, schedule their own repair, or restock pantries. All of this will be possible because of increased intelligence combined with increased connectivity. Coined in 1999, the term Internet of Things refers to a world of interconnected physical objects, capable of sharing data about their state or the state of their environment. In a 2012 white paper, Cisco estimated that the

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IoT will have a value of $4.4 trillion over the next decade. GE estimates the “industrial Internet” will add up to $15 trillion to global GDP over the next 20 years—approximately equivalent to the current size of the U.S. economy. Obviously, these are the sort of numbers that attract a lot of attention as well as investment. Cisco is attempting to rebrand the concept as the Internet of Everything (IoE). With IPv6 only representing 1% of Internet traffic as of late 2012, there remains an enormous amount of supporting hardware to be sold as we transition to the new protocol. True two-way connectivity is the goal, but in the meantime, different technologies are being used to close the gap. RFID tags (Radio Frequency IDentification) and QR codes are one approach to making individual items addressable, albeit in a passive, single direction. Ultimately, the optimal method of realizing IoT will be active, two-way communication that uses the Internet, along with an assortment of shorter-range technologies, such as Wi-Fi, ZigBee, and Bluetooth.

“So, what was so important that it took you out of your way that day? The data that the Internet of Things will make available could suddenly provoke many such questions. Who will be asking them?” Hyperconnectivity’s Benefits and Drawbacks The benefits of the Internet of Things should be obvious to business, government, and individuals alike. The ability to know exactly where a product is in your inventory or supply chain can significantly improve efficiency and lower costs. Additionally, service and warranty issues could be handled much more readily and unintrusively. On a personal front, individuals would be able to automate all sorts of routine, often mundane tasks, such as reordering supplies and groceries, or being reminded to service an appliance or vehicle, and remotely monitoring our homes. Every possession could be catalogued and instantly locatable. Misplacing your keys would become a thing of the past. The potential applications will be nearly endless.

But as with every new technology, there will be downsides. Security and privacy concerns will initially be among the most prevalent of these. As a growing number of our possessions become accessible via the Internet, the number of potential security holes will grow, as well. For example, you might experience a hacked Internet-connected appliance, such as a refrigerator or toaster oven, that results in unauthorized access to more financially or personally sensitive parts of your network and your life. Regulation safeguards will also need to keep pace with the changes. Currently, stores track personal shopping habits using loyalty cards, then resell the data to marketers. A recent Wall Street Journal article confirms that this same data is now being purchased by insurance companies for the purpose of setting JOSEPH XU, MICHIGAN ENGINEERING COMMUNICATIONS & MARKETING

Smart water sensor developed by a team of researchers led by civil and environmental engineering professor Branko Kerkez at the University of Michigan. The sensor will monitor vibrations in the water to detect leaks in water systems, changes in mineral composition, and other potential problems.

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Scenario: Life with the Internet of Everything Anya’s smart clock woke her gently, the time determined by her sleep phase (as detected by her bed) and coordinated to her morning’s schedule. Despite this, as she got up, she realized something wasn’t quite right. There was a mild ache in her joints, and her head felt fuzzy. Bringing up the Web on her nightstand (the nearest surface at hand), Anya quickly checked EpiCast and confirmed her suspicions: An H3N9 flu virus was moving through the city. Pathogen detectors had been tracking its progression for days. Fortunately, her medicine cabinet spotted the trend nearly 36 hours ago and ordered the genetically targeted medicine for that exact flu bug. It had been delivered last night and was waiting for Anya downstairs. She swallowed two tablets and got ready for work, knowing she’d be feeling her normally healthy self again before she left the house. On the way to the office, Anya’s self-driving Prius navigated traffic as she reviewed a report in preparation for her first meeting. The cars around her maintained tight formation while speeding along at over 100 mph. Lightning-fast response times combined with car-to-car-toroad communication allowed for capacities and speeds far greater than in the dangerous old days when people drove themselves. It was difficult to believe that, at the turn of the century, traffic accidents and fatalities were hundreds of times more frequent than they were today. Nevertheless, she noted her normally smooth commute was a few minutes slower than usual. Checking the navigation monitor, she saw why: Traffic was being routed away from the old Crosstown Bridge. Earlier that morning, sensors had determined that stress deformation in the structure had finally exceeded federal standards. Well, better a couple extra minutes in traffic than to be caught on a collapsing bridge. At the last minute, Anya decided to make a quick detour to pick up some office treats from the new 3-D gastroprint chocolatier everyone had been raving about. Anyone could print their food these days, but these people were artisans. She paid for the confections with a swipe of her index finger, the minuscule chip embedded beneath her skin effortlessly debiting her bank account. Nine minutes later, Anya arrived at her office building. As she passed through the scanners and checkpoints, she was quietly taken aside for secondary questioning. Obviously, her detour had fallen enough outside her typical routine to trip one of the security algorithms. It was an inconvenience, but given the amount of crime and terrorist activity in the world, it seemed like a small price to pay. —Richard Yonck www.wfs.org

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premiums and investigating claims. In a world of total connectivity, the rate at which a household consumes sugar, salt, tobacco, and alcohol would potentially be an open book to insurers seeking to control costs. Without adequate changes to consumer-protection laws, the IoT’s impact on personal liberty and privacy will be significant. Of course, individuals could opt to keep much of their life disconnected and off the grid, so to speak. But if this choice results in less profit for retailers, they are likely to charge a higher price, just as they currently do for those customers not using loyalty cards. Such costs will create an incentive for consumers to par ticipate in this hyperconnectivity. Privacy issues in such a truly connected world go far deeper than that, however. Objects with embedded intelligence would collect the digital traces of people interacting with smart environments; this information might be used to extract patterns of individual and group behavior: • You routinely pass over a particular bridge every Tuesday. • You enter a certain building between 2:00 and 3:00 p.m. with significant regularity. • Despite opting out of a store’s loyalty program, the timestamp on your credit-card transaction corresponded with those of several items as they were subtracted from the store’s inventory. • The smartcup containing your daily cappuccino with an extra shot of espresso (which you purchased with your smartphone coffee app) was tossed into a garbage can three blocks off of your usual route back to the office. So, what was so important that it took you out of your way that day? The data that the Internet of Things will make available could suddenly provoke many such questions. Who will be asking them? The information that “big data” analysis provides and the detailed profiles that could be created from it are unprecedented in all of history. People are unlikely to accept such developments without at least some resistance. Individuals and groups could implement hacks, flash mobs,

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and other activities just to generate false or misleading data that interferes with such analysis. Of course, measures would be taken to account for such disinformation-generating efforts. The detail and granularity of the information that could be harvested from a smart environment will make Facebook’s privacy settings seem like Fort Knox by comparison. Because there will be so much data generated, it makes statistical analysis increasingly accurate, both for individuals as well as in the aggregate. Automated forms of data mining will be able to ascertain everything from epidemiological information to commuter transit patterns to personal sex habits. Nothing will be exempt, sacred, or ignored, because all of it will ultimately have commercial value. It’s this potential value that makes all this data so attractive and, at the same time, so threatening. At one level, it’s a pragmatic, socially useful technology: Corporate and personal efficiency will be increased and productivity enhanced. But in the end, all this data can also be utilized for other purposes. Ultra-personalized marketing, indirect surveillance, and even pre-crime forecasting all become possibilities. This last is, of course, a reference to the film Minority Report, which was based on a Philip K. Dick novel. While the premise of this story relies on “precogs,” a trio of precognitive operatives, much the same role could be performed by highly granular surveillance, combined with data mining and statistical analysis. Anticipating the Unintended Consequences As a general rule, the more complex something is, the more opportunity there is for it to operate in a manner other than we intended or expected. The more connected our world becomes, the greater the potential for all these sensors and devices to communicate in unforeseen ways, leading to unanticipated interactions and behaviors. Without adequate safeguards, it’s entirely fea sible that a series of unrelated events beginning from something innocu20

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Data and Determinism With hyperconnectivity and big data come the possibility of anticipatory analysis, à la Minority Report. This moves us to the borderland between free will and determinism. What happens when nearly all of our actions can be predicted with near-perfect accuracy? For one thing, it could make us question what it means to be human. The matter of determinism has been argued by philosophers for millennia. Do we as humans have free will, or are we merely cogs on a great wheel of the universe, our every action already set in motion from the first flicker of the Big Bang? The irony will be if we have had free will all along and it’s only at this stage in our progress—at this cusp of our evolutionary and technological development—that we end up stripping it from ourselves. —Richard Yonck ous could trigger a major incident— even an infrastructure shutdown. An example of this is the Northeast blackout of 2003, which knocked out power to 55 million people in the United States and Canada. In this instance, unpruned trees coming in contact with overloaded transmission lines caused a transient current increase. A cascading failure occurred when software didn’t properly redistribute the load but instead shut down power in succeeding areas, propagating the disturbance across the network. As our systems begin communicating with each other in new ways, mostly without human oversight, the opportunity for such disturbances will grow. Metcalfe’s law states that networks increase in value as they grow. One outgrowth of this prin ciple is that aggregations of cells in an organism can acquire capabilities beyond those of its individual cells. For instance, a single neuron is basi-

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cally a chain of electrochemical potentiations. Networked together, these same cells may form a brain, along with its emergent property of mind. Similarly, large groups of individuals form societies, along with all their attendant behaviors, communications, and institutions. This is not to say that we aggregate into a “group mind,” though as our communications become more continuous and interconnected, some similarities will appear. However, in both brain formation and society formation, the process of aggregation results in emergent properties that couldn’t be fully predicted based solely on their constituent parts, whether cells or individuals. The IoT could manifest similar complexities in response to the growing connectedness of its components. While it’s unlikely that the network will simply wake up one day as a functioning, conscious mind, there’s a significant possibility that it will perform actions, even exhibit behaviors, that are different from those for which it was originally designed. This is the nature of complexity. Once a system reaches a particular threshold of complexity, we can no longer be certain about specific cause-and-effect relationships; rather, we must think in terms of probabilities. Instead of being 100% certain that A will lead to B, we might assign a likelihood of, say, 99.98%. For some events, this probabilistic approach works fine, but for others it could be disastrous: Power plants, automated weapons systems, and freeways full of self-driving cars all could experience catastrophes if operating on erroneous information. So these and other systems will need to be designed with greater safeguards and redundancies than they have today. Of course, these scenarios assume that the network has no volition. That could change. Over time, as the relative intelligence of individual components is upgraded and the methods of intercommunication increase in complexity, something akin to a mind or minds could emerge. These wouldn’t resemble any bio-

VIDEO SCREEN CAPTURES VIA CISCO TECHNOLOGY NEWS SITE, NEWSROOM.CISCO.COM

Left: Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers (right) and Chief Demonstration Officer Jim Grubb demonstrate the principles of the “Internet of Everything,” or machine-to-machine communication, in an agricultural setting. Sensors could be tilled directly into the soil of a cornfield, for instance (below). When one part of the field finds itself in favorable conditions, the sensors could order the irrigation system to be activated.

logical mind that has ever existed, but in some ways that would make them potentially even more problematic. A system that set its own priorities based on its own motivations would be worse than useless if not harnessed and properly directed. Such a situation might be analogous to working with a domesticated animal. We can train a horse and even make some assumptions about its motivations, but in the end, if it insists on heading down one path when we need to take another, we’re left with little choice but to dismount. Whether or not such behavior should ever become an issue with our connected technologies remains to be seen, but it is prudent to anticipate unintended performance. Rather than thinking of these unexpected behaviors as malfunctions, we should view them as the results of complex interactions that we have yet to understand. This is often what happens with software. As programs grow to hundreds of thousands, even millions, of lines of code, un anticipated values are passed and stored, and logic takes paths that were never intended. The result may be incorrect output, or the program crashes, or even the entire system halts. Software developers perform considerable testing and debugging to ensure that such occurrences are

kept to a minimum, but this simply won’t be possible in a vast ad hoc network with uncounted interconnected sensors. The future Internet of Things (or Internet of Everything) will demand entirely new approaches to exception and fault handling to ensure the continued, healthy operation of our infrastructure. Our world today is more connected than it has ever been, but a bare fraction of how connected it will become. As nearly every object in our personal, professional, and external worlds becomes addressable and programmable, much will change. We will change. The Internet of Things will increase knowledge of our environwww.wfs.org

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ment, bringing with it new functionality and efficiency. But it also holds the potential for new security holes, invasions of privacy, and possibly even a challenge to our sense of what it means to be human. The goal now is to ensure that these changes actually improve our lives. ❑ About the Author Richard Yonck is a foresight analyst for Intelligent Future LLC in Seattle and is the Computing/AI contributing editor for THE FUTURIST. His article “Are You Smarter Than a Sixth-Generation Computer?” appeared in the SeptemberOctober 2012 issue.

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Securing the Cyber City of the Future

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B y I n d u B . Singh and Jo s eph N. Pelton

On October 11, 2012, on board the USS Intrepid aircraft carrier, then– Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned Americans that the nation faces the prospect of a “cyber Pearl Harbor”—an attack that could come with devastating losses. “An aggressor nation or extremist group could use … cyber tools to gain control of critical switches to … derail passenger trains or—even more dangerous—derail passenger trains loaded with lethal chemicals. They could contaminate the water supply in major cities or shut down the power grid across large parts of the country,” he said, pulling no punches. Panetta’s challenge to Congress was primarily aimed at passage of new legislation to impose new cyber-security standards, but a number of experts confirmed his warnings to be far from hyperbole. We think of cyberterrorism as a threat that affects only national governments or perhaps large corporations—a problem of “zeroes and ones” of concern only to IT departments—not as something that could affect the neighborhoods where we live and work. A wide range of databases and command centers control smart electrical grids, water purification and sewage processing plants, and nuclear power plant cooling systems. Unless these critical systems are sealed off from electronic networks, they are all vulnerable to cyberattack.

Unseen V u l n e r a b i lities One of the biggest cyber vulnerabilities to urban infrastructure comes from the many supervisory control and

data acquisition (SCADA) systems that play a critical role in infrastructure functioning around the world. These systems are used almost ubiquitously to control pipeline flows and to command power substations and electrical power flow through the grid. SCADA even performs such mundane tasks as traffic-signal timing. Many SCADA systems operate with their original security codes, unchanged from those created by the manufacturer, and thus can be wirelessly controlled by a hacker to do pranks—or much, much worse. Recently in a mid-sized city in the United States, when a citizen advisory group asked for a review of the security on all the SCADA systems, it was found that the systems that controlled the flow of water and sewers and the timing of traffic lights were all operated via wireless SCADA equipment with rudimentary security in place. These systems were operated by different divisions of the local government, with no independent oversight or security review. Today, all of the SCADA systems in that city are reequipped with sophisticated new security codes. An independent consultant, under the supervision of a single technology-savvy agency, reviews security on new and existing SCADA systems. The problem is that numerous other cities have not yet conducted this type of security review. The striking point of this particular case study is that the city in question is one of the most educated communities in America and has even dealt with terrorist attacks. Its advisory commissions are loaded with PhDs and experts with many years of industry expertise. If any

city administrators should have had the know-how to avoid these problems, it should have been these! There are a number of security- review services that focus almost exclusively on SCADA systems that control power substations, oil, gas, sewer and water pipeline flows, traffic signals, and even operations within large factories, power plants, and military bases. In some cases, these ubiquitous systems still lack rigorous security oversight. When Secretary Panetta issued his warning about the United States being potentially vulnerable to cyberattack, he had these systems in mind. The good news is that this is a cyberthreat that can be fixed. It’s important for city officials to inventory all of the SCADA systems within their city and ensure that they are protected. Their security codes should be routinely updated, and the entire SCADA networks for the city should be independently reviewed by a third-party security auditor at least every two years. When employees involved with security codes for SCADA systems retire or leave their positions, security codes should be immediately changed, and there should be specific security regulations backed by penalties for noncompliance. Again, these procedures should be audited by an independent third party. Taking these simple steps may cost money. The cost of protection is ultimately small when compared to results of a disastrous attack on a city’s water supply, sewage treatment plant, or perhaps even a regional electrical energy grid system. The c yberthreat is real and inevitable, with potentially high consequences.

V u l n e r a b i lity of T e l e c o m Switches Another type of cyberthreat to urban centers can be found as nearby as the closest telecommunications switch, of which there are thousands across the United States and other populated regions. An electronic telecom switch is a remarkably effective and cost-efficient way to interconnect callers all over the world. There are smaller switches that service cellular towers and even smaller ones that allow a number of teleconference participants to interconnect. There are also larger switches that serve enormous population areas or international calling connections in support of the fiber-optic cables buried beneath the seafloor that allow for immediate digital information exchange around the world. There are today a very large number of telecommunications switches serving the world community, and a great many of them are vulnerable. The back-door security access codes for these devices are often unchanged from the time they are shipped from the manufacturing plant. Even if they are altered, the switchâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s security code may not be updated more frequently than once a year. A hacker, a disgruntled employee, or even an employee who unwittingly provides the code can

make telecommunications and IT network exchanges vulnerable. The possible danger is, unfortunately, much worse than a potential eavesdropper or a misrouted call. Unauthorized access to telecommunications links could result in the derailing of trains, back pumping of raw sewage into drinking water systems, or shutting down of power plants, 911 emergency systems, elevators, or critical services to hospitals and airports. In fact, these types of attacks could be launched all at the same time without warning.

P ositi ve Im pact s o f Smart Sy s tem s and Social N etw o rk s The Great Recession that hit the United States and European economies between 2008 and 2012 has actually had some positive spin-off effects. The financial stimulus bill helped to launch a multibillion-Â dollar effort to create a smart grid system in America, which will share energy not only much more efficiently, but also with much more security against terrorist attack.

These networks will also be more resilient against natural events, such as highly destructive coronal mass ejections from the sun. Pike Research has reported that spending on smart grid cyber security may rise to $1.3 billion by 2015. With the creation of smart digital controls, SCADA systems and controls, telecommunications switches, and electronic grids will operate with much greater efficiency and security. These upgrades to electric grids will have a number of other benefits, as well. In many jurisdictions, homes and businesses will add smart meters that can be read remotely and more accurately. They will enable power companies to provide discounts to users who decrease their use during peak load hours. And they will even allow users to sell user-produced energy (from solar, wind, etc.) back to the grid. We will be able to create urban district energy systems more efficiently and at lower net cost. Such district energy systems, which will mostly operate in commercial building districts, should make urban energy systems more resilient and less vulnerable to attacks on the grid.

SCADA systems, such as the one on display in this picture from Hawaii-based AAA Controls, enable different infrastructure facilities to be controlled remotely. Many of the SCADA systems in place now in cities around the United States are vulnerable to hackers, according to authors Singh and Pelton. ÂŠ AAA CONTROLS / ISTOCKPHOTO

One of the key challenges of today’s cyber world is for federal legislation in the United States to set standards for private and industry networks and the degree to which surveillance is allowable and under what judicial authority. One approach to dealing with the problem is network analysis. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has created 77 Data Fusion Centers, distributed across the country. Some are organized by cities, such as San Francisco and Philadelphia, and others are organized at the state level. These intelligence-gathering centers are supposed to capture information acquired by local law enforcement agencies and data mining operations and to fuse it with information from federal law enforcement and the Department of Homeland Security to identify threats of various types. These threats might be of detected or suspected criminal activity, money laundering, espionage, terrorist activity, threats to the public safety, and various types of threats to private or business interests. The concept of trying to make urban security systems multipurpose and cost-efficient works in theory, but an October 2012 report from the U.S. Senate Oversight Subcommittee on Investigations was filled with rebukes about wastes, inefficiencies, inconsistencies, and outright failures when assessing performance during 2009 and 2010. The report documented a lack of precise accounting of federal grants to the fusion centers that indicated that expenditures might have been as low as a quarter of a billion dollars to as high as $1.4 billion. As much as $2 million went to a center that never opened. Defenders of the system respond that bugs still have to be worked out of the data fusion process but that performance is greatly improving. The official figures from the centers indicate that they have produced 22,000 “suspicious activity” reports, triggered 1,000 federal inquiries, and produced 200 “pieces of data” that provided “actionable intelligence.” The question that remains is whether those 200 pieces of data were worth an investment of $1.4

Med ia Mon i tored by U .S. Depart men t of Ho meland Secur i ty // Cryptome, a U.S. site dedicated to leaking documents

// Facebook

// WikiLeaks

// Twitter

// The Drudge Report

// MySpace

// The Huffington Post

// YouTube

// The New York Times blog The Lede

// JihadWatch, a blog that tracks Islamic extremist activity

// Wired magazine blogs Threat Level and Danger Room

// Informed Comment, a left-leaning Middle Eastern affairs blog

// Flickr // T he ABC News blog The Blotter

—Indu B. Singh and Joseph N. Pelton

billion. Security personnel in Australia, Sweden, and Germany have found simpler methods of data fusion that, if adopted in the United States, could potentially produce much more useful results—and at a fraction of the cost. Social networks provide another potential treasure trove of cheap data that could be used to thwart cyberattacks. The question is, at what cost to privacy?

Using S o cial Media to Fight C rime   and Terrori s m Social media is an increasingly useful investigative tool for identifying breaking events and potential threats, as well as for surveillance to counter cybercrime and terrorism. Experts in the field of information technology and energy systems, as well as law enforcement officers, have indicated some of the effective ways to move forward toward a hacker-protected city. But law enforcement officers should get advice from legal counsel about how best to fight crime and terrorism with the latest in information technology tools. Those lines between what is appropriate data gathering for public security and how far it should reach into private networks are a moving target. The Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC), which acts as a privacy protection watchdog, has had an ongoing concern about the www.wfs.org

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extent to which the Department of Homeland Security and other intelligence agencies in the United States were invading individual privacy by aggressive monitoring of citizens and their increasing tracking of social media messages. EPIC, under the Freedom of Information Act, obtained the 2011 Department of Homeland Security’s manual that instructs analysts as what to look for in their monitoring activities. This manual—known as the “Analyst’s Desktop Binder”—features a list of hundreds of specific words that DHS analysts are using to try to detect possible terrorist activities or to help monitor unfolding natural disasters or public-health threats. This 39-page manual used by the department’s National Operations Center (NOC) includes words that should be tracked, like attack, epidemic, al-Qaeda, jihad, and the names of airports. But it also includes a number of innocuous and almost inexplicable words, like exercise, drill, wave, initiative, relief, and organization. It also includes words that can be misconstrued, such as target. What about someone who innocently tweets, “I went to Target to get some shoes,” or perhaps, “I feel like the telemarketers must have been targeting me this month”? Such innocent tweeters could find themselves briefly “targeted” by DHS. The NOC is a very busy place. The last available list of the social media it is currently monitoring is fairly daunting. When one considers that a

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It isn’t just power plants that are vulnerable to cyberattack. Facilities like the Automated Traffic Surveillance and Control Center (ATSAC) in Los Angeles, California, can also potentially be hacked to create havoc.

billion new files are being created each day on Facebook alone, the size of the task becomes apparent. Clearly, human analysts are not able to cope with this huge mass of data, so computers provide the first line of such analytics.

B u i l d i n g Big B r o t h e r Network s? How can this intensive, computerbased analysis of all these social media sites and billions of files a day be effectively controlled, so it does not become excessively intrusive and lead to a Big Brother type police state? Can computers or computers plus analysts see trend lines and intensity of “chat” on critical subjects that are in fact peaking at a particular time? Can they sound effective alarms? Can this be done without being overly invasive? The process currently in play is carried out via something that is actually called social-network change detection (SNCD). This is an analytical process that allows the NOC to focus in on “individuals of interest.” SNCD is a process of monitoring the most-popular social networks— plus others—to see if mass computer analysis via various algorithms can 26

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enable them to identify a credible criminal or terrorist threat. The SNCD process is geared to determine when significant changes occur within a network’s organizational structure; perhaps more importantly, this process also seeks to identify what caused these changes. This artificial intelligent/expert systems approach combines analytical techniques already used by corporations to detect consumer trends seen within social networks with socalled “statistical process control” to “target” individuals of interest and potentially credible threat. The question arises as to whether market trends among consumers, and tracking ways that popular topics go viral on social media, is an effective way of identifying and monitoring the behavior of terrorists. There are many assumptions in the SNCD process that seem questionable, both as to effectiveness and as to acceptable levels of invasiveness. The bottom line is that those who assume some personal privacy in the use of social media may be assuming too much. Social-network change detection is, in theory, used to detect when significant changes occur in a network. It requires the use of statistical process control charts to detect changes in a number of observable and quan-

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tifiable network measures. By taking measures of a network over time, a control chart is developed with the objective of alerting analysts as to “trending changes” as they presumably occur in the network. This approach is useful when applied to many different social networks over time, according to some key experiments. A test social network was first created for a group of 24 Army officers going through a one-year graduate program, as documented by Major Ian McCulloh and his colleagues at the U.S. Military Academy’s Network Science Center in 2006. An open-source social network of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization was monitored using SNCD, and it signaled a change in the organization prior to the September 11 terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center. Since then, social-network change detection has been presented in a number of public forums and is considered by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to be a useful expert system for interpretative analysis of trends on various social media networks. When the threat level at airports or in particular cities goes up, this type of analysis may indeed be the reason. Clearly other resources—such as surveillance satellites, FBI or CIA agents, or intercepted e-mails of individuals of interest—combine to trigger governmental alerts or changes in alert levels at airports or transit centers. These types of analytic techniques can also be used for other purposes, from minor applications such as alerts to traffic tie-ups or a high-rise fire, to more major events such as an industrial accident, train derailment, volcanic eruption, meteor strike, or earthquake. One of the applications in data mining from social media that has been sponsored by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and researchers at the George Washington University is a program to monitor instances of specific disease outbreaks as tracked through social media—as well as hospital and clinic records—to alert to the possibility of a pandemic of something like a new strain of flu or SARS-like disease or a biological attack.

The bottom line is that there is certainly no guarantee of privacy on social networks. The use of SNCD-like techniques, whether by commercial interests tracking market trends or security agencies trying to detect criminal or terrorist activity, has continued apace and has not been challenged in the courts to date. The future of such techniques and their impingement on privacy remains an open area of concern. Let’s look at it now.

P r ovi d i n g Future U r b a n S e rvices Urban security and the Internet, telecommunications, and IT are undoubtedly going to be closely interlinked in the future. Instead of megacities, we need to think in terms of metacities that are organized on the basis of their intellectual infrastructure. In the fast-approaching future, digital sensors and processors are incredibly cheap. Some of the ramifications of that include: • A terabyte of information will be sensed, transmitted, processed, stored, and retrieved at a very low cost—about a dollar a terabyte. • It will be possible to telecommute to work at virtually no cost. • It will be possible to protect buildings, transportation corridors, public places, and lodgings with myriad video sensors connected to digital storage retrieval on demand. • Online instructors will be able to provide education and just-in-time training based on the latest information with certified teachers. • In-home or in-office health monitors will check blood pressure and heart rate, and likely even support routine blood and urine sample tests. Future metacities will use these low-cost electronic capabilities to provide or augment services at a small fraction of the cost associated with human service providers. Smart electronic devices or systems, properly designed and programmed, could make our schools, universities, hospitals, health-care clinics, doctors, police and fire forces, and so on much more effective and economically efficient.

Pri vacy v er su s Coun terterr ori s m No one wants to endure a major cyberattack as crippling as the “ cyber Pearl Harbor” that Panetta described, but we also want to preserve civil liberties, freedom of expression, and protection from a “Big Brother” presence that monitors everyone’s communications. This is one of the great urban challenges and dilemmas of the twenty-first century: freedom from debilitating cyberattacks on one hand versus preservation of each citizen’s personal liberties on the other. Nor is this dilemma with regard to protection of conflicting core values unique to the United States. Since the 9/11 attacks and the rise of twenty-first-century terrorism, democracies have now tightened the screws of security at the sacrifice of personal privacy. One of the true challenges to the safe city of the future is to find a way to protect citizens against cyberattacks and terrorism and still allow law-abiding citizens to preserve a right to privacy. This has now become one of the greatest challenges to our urban future. How much targeted surveillance—as authorized by a free and independent judiciary— should be allowed in order to avoid terrorist attack? Who gets to decide, and who has the right of appeal if they believe reasonable bounds have been overstepped? Overreliance on electronic surveillance can in some instances create more problems than it can ultimately solve. We know that freedom and liberty must remain as a core value in the safe cities of the future, even at the expense of some lapses in security ultimately slipping through. It is better to recover from an attack on people or assets than to lose all one’s core values. But the advent of the Internet, social media, and the new electronic technologies promise us change at an incredible pace. We are being jerked into the world of tomorrow, where societal change is not measured in centuries or generations or even decades. It is time not just for policy makers but also for citizens to think seriwww.wfs.org

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ously about new models of urban development and new ways to leverage the power of the Internet to solve a number of today’s urban problems. The most important of these problems is ensuring the safety of life and property while also safeguarding privacy. As we enter a new age of megacities (i.e., cities of more than 10 million) and more and more ultradensity in our urban cores, security will become increasingly impossib l e . We n e e d t o t a l l y n e w a p proaches to urban planning and creation of new types of satellite metacities that are connected by broadband to urban cores. The Home Minister of India, S ushikumar Shinde, has said that runaway growth in today’s megacities makes it increasingly impossible for first responders to cope with disasters and terrorist attacks. Indeed, this book calls not only for reform in urban security, but also for a whole new approach to urban planning. ❑

Singh

Pelton

About the Authors Indu B. Singh is executive director of Los Alamos Technical Associates Global Institute for Security Training, www.latagist.com. He is considered a pioneer in designing and implementing smart cities and safe cities around the world. Joseph N. Pelton received the 2013 Sir Arthur Clarke International Award for his contribution as creator of the Clarke Foundation and the International Space University, of which he is a former dean. He also recently helped set up the Arthur C. Clarke Center for Human Imagination at the University of California, San Diego. He serves as THE FUTURIST’s contributing editor for Telecommunications. His previous article for the magazine, “The New Age of Space Business,” was published in SeptemberOctober 2012. This article was adapted from their book, The Safe City: New Ways to Urban and Cyber Security (The Emerald Planet, 2013).

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

The End of Public Promises? Governments and the Pension Deficit Disorder By Rob Bencini Generous public employee retirement benefits and other vestiges of the past are severely straining state and local government budgets. In order to survive, the public sector may have to learn how to operate in an era that doesn’t promise eternal growth.

n July 18, 2013, the city of Detroit was officially declared to be in a state of bankruptcy, with debts totaling more than $18 billion. The crisis had been many years, even decades, in the making, and in March, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder appointed an emergency financial manager, Kevyn Orr, to turn around the city’s finances. But Orr ’s restructuring proposals were met with resistance from creditors, particularly the city’s pension funds, which at least temporarily blocked the bankruptcy filing. Detroit is not alone in its woes. Stockton, California, is currently in court with its 2012 Chapter 9 bankruptcy proceedings, aiming to become the first major city in the United States since the Great Depression to reduce its bond indebtedness through this process. Bondholders argued that the city’s $30 million per year payments to the state’s retirement system on behalf of the city’s staff should nullify Stockton’s bankruptcy application. But the judge

disagreed and allowed the bankruptcy filing to move forward. These two examples represent the outcome of a variety of economic pressures impacting governments of all sizes in the United States. The root causes of these problems date back to the origins of government itself and, more recently, to how governments handled widespread domestic expansion at the end of World War II. And the fallout is just beginning. Pensions, retirement plans, and retiree health care may very well be the straw that breaks the back of state and local governments. Local governments are now required to calculate the future cost of other post-employment benefits (such as life-insurance or health-care premiums and deferred compensation arrangements) that they owe to their retirees and those vested in the retirement system. The figures are staggering; in many cases, the retirement indebtedness is 100% of the a nnual operating budget—and climbing. “On average, pensions consume

nearly 20 percent of municipal budgets,” Lincoln Institute of Land Policy fellow Anthony Flint observes in the Atlantic (September 28, 2012). “But if trends continue, over half of every dollar in tax revenue would go to pensions, and by some estimates in some cases would suck up 75 percent of all tax revenue.” More alarming is the deficiency in funding for state retirement plans. And again, the problem seems so insurmountable that it is being ignored, because addressing it in current budgeting would wreak havoc immediately (as opposed to kicking this giant can down the road). Detroit has already seen this problem arise in the private sector: General Motors Corporation finally declared bankruptcy in the spring of 2009, after years of poor business decisions, an inability (or unwillingness) to adapt to changes in consumer tastes and demands, and a deep recession that devastated auto sales. Among the reasons given for the deep losses and mounting debt was the fact that, for every car GM

RYAN GARZA / DETROIT FREE PRESS / MCT / NEWSCOM

Lawyer Kevyn Orr (center) addresses the media in March after Michigan Governor Rick Snyder (right) names him to be the emergency financial manager for the city of Detroit.

sold, $4,000 of the proceeds went to pay retirement benefits for those already retired. For years, GM had done three things consistently regarding its pension liability: 1. It kept the pension plan fully funded (even going so far as to tender a monstrous $13.5 billion bond issue in 2003 to remain current). 2. It “won” against unions demanding higher salaries by agreeing to increases for retirement pension and health-care benefits. 3. It did an amazingly poor job of identifying the growing pension- deficit trend before it was too late. Now the same issue is coming to a head in the public sector. Economic Futures Misjudged Investment writer John Mauldin is particularly insightful regarding this shortfall in pension funding, the poor assumptions made by the managers, and the blind eye of the elected officials that made the problem worse. Likening the current situ-

JARRAD HENDERSON / DETROIT FREE PRESS / MCT / NEWSCOM

Crowd gathers in Detroit in March to protest Gov. Rick Snyder’s appointment of Kevyn Orr as the Detroit emergency manager. Such protests presaged strong resistance in July when Orr’s restructuring recommendations led to a declaration of bankruptcy.

ation to that of Greece, he observes that retirement-system planners like CalPERS (California Public Employees’ Retirement System) grossly overestimated returns on investments. CalPERS was expecting to make 7.5% on its assets, when returns are now less than 1%. And CalPERS is not alone: Most of Texas’s retirement accounts are counting on an 8% return; the Houston Firefighters are counting on 8.5% return. “Without 8% returns, the shortfall for the Texas Employees Retirement System (ERS) could be twice the current projections,” Mauldin warned in the February 13, 2013, issue of his Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter. “The system is scheduled to pay out $133 billion between now and 2045. It has $11 billion. For these assets to cover future payouts, ERS would need to see average investment returns of 21.5% per year—or see big-time payouts from the government budget.” And Illinois may be in worse shape than either California or Texas. Let’s put it very plainly. Most www.wfs.org

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towns, cities, counties, and states in the United States are feeling budgetary stress just to meet basic service provisions and legal mandates, not to mention all the other things they would like to accomplish. Those who live in a wonderland of 5% unemployment and 4% annual growth, and are meeting current obligations easily, really can’t relate to the angst in most locales over their current and projected fiscal woes. The government entities that have a fighting chance to remain solvent are those that (1) have grown in population by at least 10% over the last 20 years (0.5% per year), (2) have undertaken no major public works projects using debt that is not selfliquidating (pays for itself), and (3) are not responsible for human service or education demands. Though these benchmarks are somewhat subjective, you get the gist of how towns and cities get into trouble: • By having no (or very little) growth, which means that the rising costs of operating the city cannot be

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

covered by a naturally growing revenue stream. • By taking on debt that has to be paid off with existing revenue. • By providing services to people, especially those who have greater needs than the revenue they provide. The places that are failing are mostly counties, small towns, and cities in decline; those dealing with the fallout of some level of human suffering; or those that are only marginally capable of meeting any level of additional educational support. So America is in a fix of retirementbenefit overreach, state and local bond indebtedness, social program funding insufficiency, educational funding shortfalls, and general budgetary pressure. How did it happen? There are two concepts that originated in the 1930s and have since become permanently embedded in the American DNA: The first is that “Growth is eternal,” and the second is that “Growth pays for itself.” Surviving the shared challenges of the Great Depression and World War II, and then experiencing the great economic surges of the postwar era, Americans held onto the belief that brighter days were always ahead. Nearly everyone’s forecasted future was better than that of their parents and grandparents. Modern medical miracles were being performed daily, and ownership of a car and even a house was well within reach. The American dream became the American belief: Bigger is better. All systems were thus built around the concept that everything —demand and supply—was always going to grow: water, electricity, education, transportation, health care, and retirement benefits. And all these things did grow. U.S. agricultural prowess and manufacturing muscle kept everyone working in a

low-cost environment and made the promise of eternal growth self-fulfilling—until it suddenly didn’t. When the eternally expanding economy no longer provided growth in local tax revenues; when the costs of building roads and schools and of providing health care and social services and retirement benefits escalated well beyond the rate of growth of revenues; when the expected investment returns that Americans had been getting since the 1930s actually went negative—then governments couldn’t adjust quickly enough. The public mindset for generations only knew growth, and so governments made long-term commitments in many areas that couldn’t be unraveled. Now they are stuck with debt, with life-dependent service provision, with maintenance of overbuilt infrastructure, and with medical and retirement commitments that cannot be abandoned.

“America is in a fix of retirement-benefit overreach, state and local bond indebtedness, social program funding insufficiency, educational funding shortfalls, and general budgetary pressure.”

THE FUTURIST

Bigger, Better, Brighter, Bust Of course, with the onset of the 2007-2008 recession, the economy turned negative, bringing the eternal-growth thinking to a screeching halt. A corollary to the eternal-growth theory is that growth pays for itself. In America, that concept has generally worked. With the postwar baby boom, neighborhoods sprang up. The costs of building roads and providing water and sewerage (and then schools), were amply met by the taxes on new houses and new shopping centers that were pouring into government coffers. Incomes also became more stable as workers left farms for manufacturing jobs. This, too, provided more income taxes for states to expand their offerings. Sales taxes paid by a more-affluent new middle class pro-

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vided revenue for these additional services, providing evidence that growth could pay for itself. That is, again, until it couldn’t. New technology has been another major change driver in the U.S. economy. The heyday of local government revenue was the era of big manufacturing, where property taxes on the big manufacturing equipment helped pay the freight of growth. Steel mills, auto manufacturing, textiles, apparel, fabric and shoe manufacturers, oil, tobacco, furniture, and many more, all with huge physical-plant footprints, provided a nice business tax base for local governments. But today’s tools of productivity are different: Laptops and tablets simply do not tax as high as looms, lathes, and presses. Another part of the problem is from the expense side: Who is responsible for what? In North Carolina, for instance, towns and cities generally have their own water and sewer systems. They handle streets, trash collection, and police and fire protection. Most have a parks and recreation department. Towns and cities welcome population growth, because having more people spreads the cost of services more widely. The water is already treated; the fire truck is already purchased; the grass at the park is already mown. More people (taxpayers) eases the budgetary worry. Counties, on the other hand, are in the “people” business, providing human services: the health department, social services, mental health services, ambulances, law enforcement, and the county jail. They are responsible for building schools. In “ordinary” good times, full of growth and prospects for more, counties were much like cities. The school was already built; the public buildings were built to serve the people; another ambulance was easily justified. But when the eternal growth period ended, things changed. Long lines of people in need formed at the human service agencies. Ambulances became the routine doctor visit method of choice. And schools became a social service agency to every human ailment at every level of economic standing. There are those who rant that “we

need to run government like a business,” but choosing not to educate a child once a school building is full (for instance) is not an acceptable option in the public sector. Just because you have met the monthly quota of poor people at the social services office doesn’t mean you can take the rest of the week off. They keep coming. Getting a credit card number verified before an ambulance is dispatched places that modest revenue above our humanity. Government is different from business for a reason. The big problem today is that most people don’t pay for themselves. It costs more to service the needs for most people than they contribute to the local economy in taxes, usage payment, and fees. Their presence and life situations cost the county more than they bring to the economic table. Failing to recognize this has contributed mightily to the economic plight that counties (and perhaps states and the federal government) are facing today. An example of how we fail to realize this lesson—and how our public policies contribute to this situation— comes from the realm of economic development. It plays out like this: It is politically expedient among the elected officials to address the high unemployment rate in their l ocale by “creating jobs.” In most cases, it doesn’t matter what the jobs are or what they pay. Success lies in “creating jobs” at any level, and even projects that provide low-wage jobs for low-educated and unskilled workers are declared victories for the community. And because job creation in one place will often attract workers from other places, the community must then commit more s ervices to more people without necessarily resolving the local unemployment problem. In fact, economic development projects like this often leave the jurisdiction much

worse off. In addition to any incentive payments, the jurisdiction may have substantial social service and school subsidies to pay that far outweigh the purported tax and job creation benefits. The dilemma is this: Contending with state, municipal, county, and utility service solvency and fiscal management should mean cutting services and benefits, but governments have made promises that have legal standing. Bonds and other debt agreements, commitments for retiree health care and pension payments, contractual agreements for privatized service, and other commitments can’t just be dismissed.

“Most people don’t pay for themselves. It costs more to service the needs for most people than they contribute to the local economy in taxes, usage payment, and fees.”

Searching for Responsible Options Stockton, California, is trying to move forward in bankruptcy court, accepting that that is the best way of handling the city’s plight. Others will deal with a tough situation differently. The solutions to this situation are as varied as the towns, cities, counties, and states that are dealing with them, but there are some approaches that may benefit all. Public–private partnerships (such as in the production and conservation of energy) are a relatively easy approach but not as aggressively pursued as they might be. Shareduse parks and recreation management is another example of partnerships that can help jurisdictions save on operating expenses. This is just a starter set of possibilities. Futurists with governmental backgrounds can offer more. A daunting challenge is that public officeholders tend not to be very receptive to futurist thinking or to change in general. Government is just simply slow to move on new initiatives, preferring to maintain the present course because of the possiwww.wfs.org

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bility of unpredictability with change. What these change-resistant leaders don’t realize is that the current course—business as usual—actually poses the greater risk. Once these issues come to a head and the realization sets in of what has happened, they may impulsively make massive budget, personnel, and service cuts, or impose huge tax increases, or declare bankruptcy, or all of the above. Our challenge as futurists is to successfully gain entry into the halls of the decision makers, explain the trends, and help them figure out their best method of handling their unique situations. The transition to new ways of doing things—public–private partnerships, shared community resources, crowdsourced input, more self-reliance—will not be painless. We are seeing it play out all over America. But bankruptcy and defaults are also painful and will be shared beyond bondholders and affected retirees. Virtually every retirement plan, bond fund, and money market fund contains debt paper from governments feeling these stresses. We tend to lose track of the importance of the public services we count on every day, but we ignore them at our peril. The impacts of those public promises that can no longer be kept have been unfolding for years and are finally reaching a tipping point. Just being aware of these trends before they reach maximum impact gives us the opportunity to prepare for the potential consequences. If aware and receptive, local governments can commit to acting with foresight to mitigate these issues. But time is running short. ❑ About the Author Rob Bencini, MBA, is a Certified Economic Developer (CEcD) and economic futurist from North Carolina. He is the author of Pardon the Disruption: The Future You Never Saw Coming (forthcoming). His previous article for THE FUTURIST, “Educating the Future: The End of Mediocrity,” appeared in the March-April 2013 issue. Web site www.robbencini.com; e-mail rbencini@earthlink.com.

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

World Future Society Professional Membership Tools and Techniques… Leading-Edge Ideas… Highly Productive Collaborations… AARON M. COHEN

The World Future Society’s Professional Membership is a focused program for individuals involved in futures research, forecasting, corporate or institutional planning, issues management, technology assessment, policy analysis, urban and regional planning, competition research, and related areas. Professional Members include educators, government and business leaders, researchers, think-tank members, corporate planners, and analysts, plus others involved in the study of the future and its impact on their organizations. World Future Review

In addition to all of the vital benefits of regular membership, Professional Members receive a subscription to the exclusive World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight. This publication offers full-length refereed a rticles, interviews of leading futures practitioners, insightful reviews of important new publications, and abstracts of the most critical new foresight-relevant literature. Professional Members Forums

Professional Members also have the opportunity to meet once a year to focus more intensively on crucial topics in our field. The Professional Members Forums feature some of the top thinkers in futures studies, who convene to share insights in a small-group setting that allows for dynamic interaction. Recent forums have been held in Washington, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Boston, Vancouver, Toronto, and Chicago. Upcoming forums are also s cheduled in Orlando and San Francisco. Join now, and receive:

• A subscription to World Future Review, the Society’s professional journal. An international editorial board referees all articles for this unique publication, which covers a wide range of futures-relevant subjects. • Invitations to the annual Professional Members Forums. (Join now to qualify for the 2014 Forum in Orlando.) • All benefits of regular membership in the World Future Society, including a subscription to THE FUTURIST, the Society’s bimonthly magazine on the future; discounts on books and other products; the Society’s yearly “Outlook” report of selected forecasts from THE FUTURIST; and a subscription to Futurist Update, a monthly e-mail newsletter. Professional Membership is $295 per year. A special rate of $195 per year is available for individuals belonging to educational or nonprofit organizations. Join online at www.wfs.org/professional or call 1-800-989-8274 weekdays (9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern time).

OUTLOOK 2014 Recent Forecasts from World Future Society for the Decade Ahead

INTRODUCTION Species long extinct may one day be revived through genomes created with synthesized DNA. Doctors will have the tools to detect signs of brain disorders many years before symptoms emerge. And consumers will give up owning stuff in favor of renting, subscribing, or pay-per-use schemes that lighten the loads of their lifestyles. These are just a few of the forecasts you’ll find in this latest edition of Outlook, a roundup of the most thought-provoking possibilities and ideas published in THE FUTURIST magazine over the past year. The forecasts collected in the World Future Society’s annual Outlook reports are not intended to predict the future, but rather to provoke thought and inspire action for building a better future today. The opinions and ideas expressed are those of their authors or sources cited and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Future Society. For more information, please refer to the original articles cited. Back issues of THE FUTURIST may be purchased using the coupon in this report or online at www.wfs.org. Your feedback is welcome! Please post comments online or by e-mail to letters@wfs.org. —THE EDITORS © DERRREK / ISTOCKPHOTO

INSIDE OUTLOOK Business and Economics �� 2

Information Society �� 5

Computers and Automation �� 2

Lifestyles and Values �� 6

Environment and Resources �� 3

Science and Technology �� 7

Food and Agriculture �� 4

Security and Crime �� 8

Health and Medicine �� 4

World Affairs �� 9

OUTLOOK EXTRAS Extinction Might Not Be Forever!.... 3 Medical Futuring............................. 5 Of Minds and Brains....................... 6 Gone Tomorrow?............................ 7

OUTLOOK 2014 BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS ●● Populations will shrink, and wealth will shrink with them. By 2020, half of the human race will live in countries where the birthrates have fallen below the death rates; consequently, their populations will shrink. These countries will grapple with shrinking tax bases and workforces despite widening pools of retirees demanding social-security and health-care payouts. Society will survive, but GDPs will fall markedly throughout the world and probably never fully rise back up. —Kenneth Taylor, “In Search of the ‘Better Angels’ of Our Future,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 24 ●● The old economy is dying, but a new, more equitable one is taking its place. The reckless pursuit of profit has brought the world to economic disaster, but conscientious entrepreneurs and leaders are charting a better way. Marjorie Kelly, author of Owning Our Future, calls it the “generative economy.” It takes many forms, including cooperatives, nonprofit–public partnerships, and local businesses that invest in the well-being of their employees and communities. All add up to a new economic model based on sustainable job creation, fair distribution of wealth, and private ownership that serves the common good. —Marjorie Kelly, author of Owning Our Future, reviewed by Rick Docksai, Nov-Dec 2012, p. 59 ●● Women will have greater EDGE69 / ISTOCKPHOTO social and economic power in 2020. Although gains in women’s socioeconomic development are not equally distributed around the world, women are, overall, gaining power and mobility. Education and technology will continue to play a large part in shaping women’s lives. And as they experience increased agency and financial independence, many women will delay or even forgo marriage. —The Futures Company, “Women 2020: Our Selves, Our Worlds, Our Futures,” May-June 2013, p. 36 ●● Megatrend promises a wealthier future for us all. Incomes in the United States have tripled in the last three generations, and standards of living are rising in poor countries around the world. These two big trends bode well for future generations, according to macroeconomist Charles Jones of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. “The overwhelming fact of economic history for the last 150 years is [that], on average, incomes were growing at 2% a year, and that growth is inexorable. As bad as the Great Depression was, it was

OUTLOOK 2014

temporary,” says Jones. —Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2013, p. 2

COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION ●● Quantum computing could lead the way to true artificial intelligence. Conventional computers cannot make decisions, as humans do, but quantum computers eventually might, says D-Wave One creator Geordie Rose. They use programs based on quantum mechanics to see multiple possible outcomes to any given problem and combine information from each to formulate solutions. Quantum computers are already solving problems that conventional computing algorithms cannot touch. With another 10 to 15 years of enhancement, they might cross the threshold to true machine consciousness, Rose predicts. —Rick Docksai, “Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 53 RETHINK ROBOTICS ●● Robots will become our coworkers rather than our replacements. As baby boomers retire, demand for manufacturing workers will increase. Rather than replace human workers, robots will work side by side with us to fill this void. The robots will be people-friendly and will not require human workers to have a complex understanding of technology in order to work with them. —Rodney Brooks, “Robots at Work: Toward a Smarter Factory,” May-June 2013, p. 24

●● Tiny robotic eyes will always be on us. Privacy watchdogs who protest when law-enforcement agencies deploy unmanned aerial drones to monitor neighborhoods may miss the drone era once law enforcement rolls out “micro dots.” Tiny recording devices will be deployed throughout every corner of residential streets and city plazas and provide nonstop transmissions of all activity taking place around them. This ubiquitous recording could deter and help solve all types of crimes, and may provide the necessary evidence to exonerate those who are falsely accused of crimes. But in the meantime, we will have to get used to there being no more privacy when we’re out in public. —Gene Stephens, “Crime in the Year 2030,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 28 ●● Robots will become increasingly useful in rescues deemed too perilous for humans. When it comes to rescuing people from natural and biological disaster, some rescue missions are just too risky. The U.S.

government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is looking to develop robots that will be able to use complex equipment and navigate dangerous conditions in order to save human lives in the event of a disaster. —Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 2 UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA, HUNTSVILLE ●● Traditional computer keyboards will be replaced by an electronic glove. The “gauntlet keyboard” allows the user to type using only one hand, making it ideal for a wide range of applications. Designed by engineering students at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, the technology transmits signals about finger and thumb positions to a computer, cell phone, or other device. —Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 2

ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES NASA ●● When it comes to saving forests, economic solutions may trump technological ones. Deforestation has slowed considerably since the 1980s, but the world continues to lose 32 million acres of forests a year. One of the major impacts has been climate change, for which a number of technological megaprojects have been proposed as solutions. To encourage lower-tech approaches to reforestation, activist groups like the Rainforest Alliance offer certification for businesses that engage in sustainable farming and ranching practices. —Rick Docksai, “Disappearing Forests? Actions to Save the World’s Trees,” Sep-Oct 2013, p. 45

●● Protected forests will be less protective for many species. Endangered plant and animal species are threatened by human hunters and developers even in legally protected forest reserves. Poaching,

COURTESY OF VIRGINIA TECH

Extinction Might Not Be Forever! ●● The passenger pigeon may be brought back after 100 years of extinction. A geneticist (and bird lover) has developed a strategy for “de-extincting” the passenger pigeon, the last specimen of which died in 1914. Ben J. Novak’s “Great BEN J. NOVAK Comeback” project involves five research phases: 1. Sequencing and analyzing pigeon genomes to understand passenger pigeon biology. 2. Producing cells that could be used to engineer a living passenger pigeon. 3. Creating the genome from synthesized passenger pigeon DNA. 4. Using altered cells to create breeding chimeras (combinations of rock and passenger pigeons) that would ultimately create pure passenger pigeons. 5. Reintroducing new passenger pigeons back into the wild. “It was the most beautiful bird I’d ever seen,” says Novak. “It was once the most numerous bird in the world, but this species succumbed to our activities. The last one died on September 1, 1914, her body found in her aviary at 1 p.m. The passenger pigeon was gone from the skies. I’ve made it my life’s work to bring it back.” Source: Ben J. Novak, “The Great Comeback: Bringing a Species Back from Extinction,” Sep-Oct 2013, p. 43

logging, and other human incursions on wildlife are driving down biodiversity in many of the world’s tropical forest preserves, according to researchers at Virginia Tech. Designating an area of land as protected isn’t enough, they conclude: Wildlife won’t be truly safe unless conservation efforts find and neutralize the threats that strike at it from beyond the land’s boundaries. —Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2012, p. 2 ●● Fewer duck hunters could mean bad news for ducks. The overwhelming majority of revenue from duck hunting licenses, or duck stamps, is used for wetland conservation efforts. Since the 1970s, the popularity of duck hunting has declined, and duck stamp sales have decreased by 36%. Efforts to preserve ducks’ habitats could thus suffer if this decline continues, says a report published in the Wildlife Society Bulletin. —Future Scope, May-June 2013, p. 4 ●● Increased efficiency will lead to resource exhaustion. Rather than lead to decreased consumption, greater efficiency actually encourages more consump-

OUTLOOK 2014

OUTLOOK 2014 tion. In The Efficiency Trap, Steve Hallett claims that we will exhaust many of our resources by the 2030s, and violence and chaos will erupt as a result. Hallett proposes recycling and growing food locally as possible means of assuaging the damage. —Steve Hallett, author of The Efficiency Trap, reviewed by Rick Docksai, May-June 2013, p. 53 PACIFIC RING OF FIRE 2004 EXPEDITION / NOAA OFFICE OF

OCEAN EXPLORATION / DR. BOB EMBLEY ●● Phytoplankton death will further disrupt aquatic ecosystems. The tiny marine plants are sensitive to temperature changes, so global warming poses a major threat to their populations. A Michigan State University study projects that up to 40% of the world’s phytoplankton will die out by this century’s end. Because phytoplankton convert large amounts of carbon dioxide to oxygen, their decline will further exacerbate global warming. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 12

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ●● Nanotechnology could lead to a new agricultural revolution. Greenhouses, water pumps and filters, and other structures for large-scale enclosed agriculture could be built via atomically precise manufacturing processes. The rewards would include higher yields, improved quality of foods, and crops grown without pesticides. —K. Eric Drexler, “A Radical Future for Nanotechnology,” Sep-Oct 2013, p. 18 © CHRISTOPHER MacLEAN / IRIN ●● “Land-grabbing” by wealthy nations for food grown in the developing world could increase. Swaths of farmland throughout the developing world are going up for sale or lease to outside businesses and governments. The buyers—of whom the foremost are China, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea—are trying to ensure stable food supplies for their own populations amid water shortages and falling domestic crop production. But they displace many of the lands’ resident farmers in the process. Local opposition is growing in many places and may morph into widespread violence, absent

OUTLOOK 2014

a major sea change toward localized, community- centered farming and away from big corporate- and government-led land grabs. —Lester R. Brown, “Food, Fuel, and the Global Land Grab,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 21 ●● The Americas will increasingly compete for farm workers. Improved education and income levels in Mexico are leading to fewer workers available both for domestic work and for migrant labor on U.S. farms. Mexican farmers are now relying on workers from Guatemala. U.S. farmers will have to look further afield for workers, invest more in labor-reducing technology, switch to less-labor-intensive crops, or raise their wages to attract workers, says a report from the Migration Policy Institute. —Future Scope, May-June 2013, p. 4 A. FLEURET / USAID ●● Global grain race ahead? Food shortages and higher costs have prompted some countries to i ncrease investment in agricultural R&D. As the private and public sectors increase their funding, farmers who can take advantage of new information will be able to lower their costs and increase production, potentially allowing them to better respond to food shortages. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 8

HEALTH AND MEDICINE ●● More patients will face serious drug side effects. As doctors prescribe stronger psychiatric drugs in greater quantities, more people are at risk for both shortand long-term side effects, warns Cornell University psychiatrist Richard Friedman, among others. Longterm impacts may include alterations to the brain that can continue years after the patient has stopped taking a drug. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2013, p. 12 ●● Software will look after our health in 2025. While doctors and nurses will continue to treat patients for many years to come, software programs will take up a growing share of the work, as well. In one potential scenario described by Clem Bezold, chairman of the Institute for Alternative Futures, home-based software services will monitor patients nonstop and give each one daily personalized health advice. When patients are not feeling well, they will run their symptoms by the software and get automatic prognoses on what might be ailing them and whether an appointment with a human doctor will be necessary. —Joyce L. Gioia, “Future Food

and Health: A WorldFuture Sampler,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 52 ●● Surgeons will be able to perform operations with even greater precision. A smart instrument handle, designed by engineers at the Fraunhofer Institute, will

Medical Futuring ●● Doctors will see brain diseases many years before they arise. Brain scans can warn doctors if a patient will suffer Alzheimer’s, dementia, Lou Gehrig’s, or a number of other brain disorders as many as 10–15 years ahead of physical symptoms. Researchers at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis are learning to identify distinct chemical biomarkers within patients’ body and brain functions. Doctors could then slow the progression of the diseases if they start administering treatments years earlier. —World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2013, p. 11 ●● Potential violence of mental-health patients will become easier to predict. Although few people with mental-health disorders are violent, determining a patient’s risk of becoming violent is crucial for psychiatrists. A clinical assessment tool known as the HCR-20-C scale allows mental-health professionals of varying experience levels to predict whether a patient is potentially violent. Other means of assessment have high rates of success among experienced mental-health professionals but are less suitable for those new to the field. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 6 ●● We will be able to predict childhood obesity before it occurs. A new, simple calculator that combines risk factors can predict an infant’s risk of becoming obese later in life. The tool uses both genetic and nongenetic risk factors, such as birth weight and mother’s professional status. Childhood obesity is difficult to combat, so researchers hope that this calculator can help parents of at-risk infants take steps toward prevention. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 12 ●● The Internet will become increasingly useful in medical diagnoses. Even when they have only a handful of vague symptoms to work with, algorithms are useful in remotely diagnosing infectious diseases. Though not yet as reliable as doctors and lab tests, algorithms can be extremely helpful in making diagnoses and tracking outbreaks in parts of the world where hospitals and sophisticated lab equipment are not easily available. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2013, p. 8

allow inexperienced surgeons to perform surgeries with skills similar to those of veteran doctors. The tool contains sensors that can, for instance, alert doctors when a screw is tight enough. —Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2013, p. 2

INFORMATION SOCIETY ESRI ●● Thanks to big data, the environment around you will anticipate your next move. Computerized sensing and broadcasting abilities are being incorporated into our physical environment, creating what is sometimes called an “Internet of Things.” Data flowing from sensor networks, RFID tags, surveillance cameras, unmanned aerial vehicles, and geo-tagged social-media posts will telegraph where we’ve been and where we are going. In the future, these data streams will be integrated into services, platforms, and programs that will provide a window into the lives, and futures, of billions of people. —Patrick Tucker, “Mapping the Future with Big Data,” July-Aug 2013, p. 16

●● Students will turn away from traditional forms of higher education. Traditional institutions of higher education are falling short of many students’ needs. The rising popularity of online degrees, the high cost of obtaining a traditional college degree, and changes to the workplace are causing many to seek alternative forms of education, such as online courses. —Rob Bencini, “Educating the Future: The End of Mediocrity,” Mar-Apr 2013, p. 40 ●● The future of science is in the hands of crowdsourced amateurs. So-called “citizen science,” which uses networks of volunteers in scientific research, is on its way to becoming the favored twenty-firstcentury model for conducting largescale scientific research. Some of the organizations in-

GLACIER NPS

OUTLOOK 2014

OUTLOOK 2014 volved in citizen science include the Cornell University Ornithology Lab, the United States Rocket Academy, and NASA, among many others. —Kathleen Toerpe, “The Rise of Citizen Science,” July-Aug 2013, p. 25 ●● An over-surveyed society could bring new restrictions to researchers. As more and more marketers and others are pestering consumers for feedback, many people are becoming less willing to participate in research surveys. The result may be compromised results in longitudinal studies. One researcher—political science professor Ottar Hellevik of the Norsk Monitor survey in Norway—has suggested regulating who is permitted to conduct surveys in the future. —Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2013, p. 2 ●● Rooms will respond to your touch. Spanish technology research center Tecnalia and several home- furnishings and electronics manufacturers are aiming to

TECNALIA / COURTESY OF BASQUERESEARCH.COM

Of Minds and Brains ●● We will be able to digitize our memories and ideas. The brain’s neocortex is responsible for our thoughts and ideas. A digital neocortex will serve the same purposes as a biological neocortex, but it will have benefits that our brains don’t. The artificial neocortex will be faster, have greater storage capacity (thanks to cloud storage systems), and even allow us to “back up” our thoughts and share them with other users. —Ray Kurzweil, “How to Make a Mind,” Mar-Apr 2013, p. 14 UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA ●● More minds will move more matter. Among the objects that have been successfully controlled via brain– computer interfaces are small, four-blade helicopters, called quadcopters (University of Minnesota), and a variety of gaming devices (NeuroGaming Conference and Expo). As the links between technologies and the human mind grow more intricate and intimate, digital neuronal evolution will lead to what futurist Gray Scott terms a “neuronalverse.” —Tomorrow in Brief; Gray Scott, “The Neurotechnology Revolution Has Arrived,” Sep-Oct 2013, pp. 2, 7

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make tomorrow’s rooms both cozy and intelligent. The consortium is designing a room layout by which a person could control lighting, heat, and other interior systems simply by touching the wood panels on items such as a desk, a chair, or a bed’s headboard. No more scrounging for a missing remote control or fumbling in the dark for a light switch. —World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2013, p. 11

LIFESTYLES AND VALUES ●● Buying and owning things will go out of style. The markets for housing, automobiles, music, books, and many other products show a common trend: Younger consumers opting to rent or subscribe to payper-use arrangements instead of buying and owning the physical products. Saving money and living more sustainably are motivators, as is the desire to more easily pack up and move to new cities or towns on short notice. Shared facilities will overtake established offices, renting units will become more common than owning a home, and sales of books and music might never become popular again. —Hugo Garcia, “Consumption 2.0,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 6 © ISABEL TIESSEN PASTOR / ISTOCKPHOTO ●● A desire for sons over daughters means that India’s population will continue to swell. Parents who give birth to a girl are more likely to “try again.” As a result, girls are more frequently being born into large families, where they receive a smaller fraction of resources and face higher educational and health disparities. —Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2013, p. 2 © KIRBY HAMILTON / ISTOCKPHOTO ●● Who will take care of the sen iors? As their populations of elderly retirees continue to surge, the world’s developed countries will face difficult and divisive questions over how to provide for them. Hard decisions could ensue. Social-security and pension programs may reduce individual payouts to accommodate the growing numbers of recipients, while health-care systems resort to health-

care rationing, including limiting care for those who suffer cognitive disabilities or who are on artificial life support. Palliative care could become much more widespread, in turn, as more elderly patients accept their mortality instead of striving to keep extending their life spans. —James H. Lee, “Eldering: Aging with Resilience,” Jan-Feb 2013, pp. 34, 35 ●● Workers with “highly human” skills will be sought after. As technology advances, machines will replace a greater number of human workers, particularly in service and knowledge-based fields like medicine, computer programming, and advertising. But human workers can bring several uniquely human traits, abilities, and skills to the table that computers cannot, such as creativity, responsibility, and subjective reasoning. —Richard W. Samson, “Highly Human Jobs,” MayJune 2013, p. 29

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ●● Enhanced super-athletes will need their own Olympic Games. Double-amputee runner Oscar Pistorius stunned audiences at the 2012 Summer Olympics when he ran on two prosthetic legs and far outpaced his “able-bodied” competition. As prosthetics, gene therapy, and nanomedicine progress, more athletes with enhanced bodies will emerge, and they, too, will have definitive edges over their non-enhanced counterparts. In time, the enhanced athletes might form their own separate Olympics, where they will go head to head in feats of strength, endurance, and speed that no “normal” human athlete could match. —Richard Yonck, “On Being Human in a Transhuman Future,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 64 RICK DOCKSAI ●● Plastics will go organic. Some wellknown businesses are replacing the plastics in their production lines with new lines of “bioplastics,” which look and feel just like conventional plastics but are based on organic ingredients instead of oil. They currently constitute a very small share of plastics sales, in part because they cost more than regular plastics. But more buyers could line up soon, as innovations in recycling and plastics production methods bring the costs down and as more businesses make sustainability a higher priority in their own manufacturing practices. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2012, p. 9

Gone Tomorrow? Among the many things that futurists predict will disappear by the year 2030: • Two billion jobs in economic sectors disrupted by such technologies as driverless cars and 3-D printers. But millions of new job opportunities will also emerge, so long as we prepare our systems and ourselves with new skill sets (Thomas Frey).

• Smartphones, which will follow pagers into technoblivion sooner than we think. We’ll still be connected, but the devices will be worn or implanted (Paul Saffo). • Car crashes—and the jury trials that result. Two technologies—connected vehicles and automated v ehicles—will significantly reduce accidents (Tom Schaffnit). One outcome will be fewer injuries and, thus, fewer lawsuits requiring juries (Clayton Rawlings).

• Grade point averages. Grades assigned by different instructors for different students are often subjective and unreliable indicators of achievement. Badges for completion of work and endorsements of skills may increasingly replace grades (Dan Tuuri). • Local news on TV. No longer a way to scoop the already-extinct afternoon newspaper, local television news stations are losing to social media at the micro level and redundancy at the macro level (Rob Bencini). • Retail stores. They’ll be replaced by “demo docks,” where you can try something out and order it to be delivered (John P. Sagi).

• Circus animals. Legal protections for animals will help drive more innovative (animal-free) alternative circus entertainment (LuAnne Feik). • Forest fires. Improved sensing technologies and swarms of firefighting drones may put forest fires out for good (Thomas Frey).

• Greeting cards—and post offices from which to mail them. The dematerialization of communication has turned the ordinary greeting card into one of humanity’s most wasteful forms of interpersonal exchange. As it (and other forms of physical mail) slips into oblivion, so, too, will the local post office (Karl Albrecht). • Bad moods. Sensors in our environments will deflect our despair by surrounding us with soothing images, scents, and sounds (Liz Leone and Jean Georges Perrin). Source: “Top 10 Disappearing Futures,” Sep-Oct 2013, pp. 22-39.

●● Machines, infrastructure, and other systems will become more productive and less expensive, thanks to atomically precise manufacturing. What the term nanotechnology really refers to, according to K. Eric Drexler—the father of the concept—is atom-by-

OUTLOOK 2014

OUTLOOK 2014 atom production, which will allow for extraordinary improvements in manufacturing all things. One major benefit could be far cleaner energy, such as liquid hydrocarbon fuels produced using hydrogen from water and carbon from recycled CO2. —K. Eric Drexler, “A Radical Future for Nanotechnology,” Sep-Oct 2013, p. 14 COURTESY OF NEVADA DMV ●● Green, intelligent vehicles will own the road in the 2020s. Electric and hybrid vehicles will go into mainstream use, and they won’t need drivers. “Selfdriving cars” have already passed numerous driving tests. Meanwhile, design improvements continue to make electric and hybrid cars more cost-competitive with standard combustible-engine vehicles. —Laura B. Huhn, Kenneth W. Harris, and Dexter Snyder, “The Coming of Intelligent Green Vehicles,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 41

●● Fusion-fueled rockets could significantly reduce the potential time and cost of sending humans to Mars. Space exploration is limited to how much fuel our vehicles can bring with them, and fuel weighs too much to get us very far. That may soon change. A University of Washington team has devised a type of plasma encased in its own magnetic field. The magnetic field causes metal rings around the plasma to implode and converge to create a shell that ignites the fusion reaction. —Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2013, p. 2 GSI ●● Space crews will shield up to explore other planets. Outer space teems with radio active particles that would be deadly to any human space crew daring enough to venture out toward Mars, the asteroids, or beyond. But experimental new “radiation shields” being tested in Germany could keep those intrepid explorers safe. The shield components, incidentally, are fairly simple stuff: Water, polyethylene, and certain hydrogen-rich compounds all perform well in simulations. —Tomorrow in Brief, Jan-Feb 2013, p. 2

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SECURITY AND CRIME ●● China will replace the United States as the most surveilled country in the world. By 2020, the state’s homeland-security and public-safety expenditures will reach $257 billion, up from $111 billion in 2012, projects a report from Homeland Security Research Corporation. The increases can be partially explained by China’s rapid commercial growth. But increased surveillance is also in the government’s interest: In a country where protests regularly threaten political stability, the state is investing in increased surveillance to control dissident action. —World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 7 UNITED NATIONS PHOTO BY ALBERT GONZÁLEZ FARRAN ●● More precious than gold, water and its infrastructure will become more vulnerable to disruption. Drinkable water will grow scarcer and costlier throughout the world, eventually becoming a more prized commodity than oil or gold. And like those other resources, water will increasingly be a target of thefts— individuals and communities will take to diverting water from their neighbors’ pipelines and reservoirs, and law enforcement everywhere will struggle to deter them. At the global scale, governments will squabble over the rights to rivers and reservoirs, while consumer groups challenge corporations’ bids to gain ownership of their communities’ water. —Gene Stephens, “Crime in the Year 2030,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 29 UNITED NATIONS PHOTO BY KIBAE PARK ●● As with water works, energyrelated facilities will be targets of hackers, terrorists, and thieves. As energy prices rise further and stocks of fossil fuels grow scarcer, individuals and governments will resort to illegal means to obtain fuel and electricity. Incidents of people siphoning fuel from trucks and storage sites or filling up at gas stations without paying will become more frequent. So will covert government operations to steal oil or gas from neighbors’ pipelines, or even destroy the pipelines altogether for competitive advantage. —Stephens, p. 29

●● The private security industry will experience steady growth. An aging population looking for greater personal security and a recovering economy will both contribute to the boom. The industry’s growth is expected to exceed 5% from 2011 to 2016. Compared with recent years’ growth, this is a large increase. —Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2013, p. 2

WORLD AFFAIRS ●● The world will grow freer. Human rights and individual freedoms are gaining ground even in societies that have long been authoritarian. Contributing to this positive trend is a confluence of changing societal values, rising education and income levels worldwide, and technological innovations, such as digital media, which empower democracy activists. China, for instance, now tolerates self-expression to a degree that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. If these trends continue, the world will evolve into a freer and more humane place. —Josh Calder, “Who Will Be Free? The Battle for Human Rights to 2050,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 29 © SAMRAT35 / DREAMSTIME ●● A global competition for skilled workers will heat up. China, India, and the United States all have steep looming shortages of workers with the technical skills necessary to fill critically needed jobs. They will therefore compete aggressively to attract as many of the limited pool of skilled workers as possible to come work within their borders. Unfortunately, there is just not enough skilled talent to go around, nor will there be until all three countries improve education and job training to cultivate more skilled talent domestically. —Edward Gordon, “The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers,” Nov-Dec 2012, p. 43

●● Sub-state paramilitary groups are developing the military capabilities of nation-states at much less cost. John Watts, a security consultant with

the Australian firm Noetic Group, says that small groups like Hezbollah, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and others are taking emerging technologies and adapting them to their use a lot quicker than state actors. Drug cartels have homemade submarines. Organized crime syndicates in Mexico have developed makeshift armored vehicles. “Many of these groups are turning out technologies that are not as sophisticated as [what] a state player has, but they’re not far from it,” says Watts. —John Watts [interview by Rick Docksai], “New Tools for War and Peace: Technology Game Changers,” JulyAug 2013, p. 21 ANDREA LONG / MERCY CORPS ●● Youth networked through social media will lead the future of African politics. In Kenya, the volunteer youth organization Yes Youth Can worked nonstop at the local, county, and national levels in the months leading up to Kenya’s March 2013 presidential election. Their goal was to engage youth in the political process, get them all registered to vote, and defuse any tensions that might lead to outbreaks of political violence. Mobile phones and digital media in general played a very large role in Yes Youth Can’s activities. While fiber-optic networks are still sparse, more than 70% of the country has mobile-phone subscriptions. Mercy Corps and partners adapted Facebook and Twitter’s coding so that subscribers in Kenya could post directly to the sites via a free SMS short-code. The result was 380,000 Kenyans viewing Yes Youth Can’s Facebook page within the three days encompassing the election. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2013, p. 11

●● Intellectual-property theft and unscrupulous policies will hinder rather than help global innovation. “Innovation mercantilism”—national policies that violate global trading laws—allow some nations to underinvest in their own creative resources. The result may boost short-term business interests but at the price of long-term development. All of the world’s economies would gain if leaders could agree on an innovation policy that promotes innovation, productivity, and competition while discouraging currency manipulation and intellectual-property theft. —Robert Atkinson and Stephen Ezell, “Building the Global Innovation Economy,” Jan-Feb 2013, p. 14

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Tomorrow Is Built Today Founded in 1966, the World Future Society is a nonprofit, nonpartisan scientific and educational association with thousands of members and readers in some 80 countries. Membership is open to anyone with an interest in the trends shaping the future. Regular membership includes annual subscriptions to The Futurist magazine, the electronic newsletter Futurist Update, and discounts on books published by the Society and on registration fees for the Society’s annual meetings. Dues: $79 per year ($20 for full-time students under age 25) Professional membership, in addition to the above, includes a subscription to World Future Review and invitations to the annual Professional Members Forums. Dues: $295 per year ($195 for members of academic and nonprofit organizations).

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Game Plan for a Future-Ready Workforce An Interview with Ed Gordon The author of Future Jobs discusses the book’s mission to upgrade education systems and to connect skilled workers with new job prospects. Industries and job sectors keep rapidly changing. Too many regional education-to-employment systems are out-of-date, according to workforce/career researcher Ed Gordon. For the past several decades, he has followed these trends and worked to shape new solutions across many business sectors, educational institutions, and regional community organizations. Gordon has consistently predicted a growing structural disconnect between the skills of students and workers and the rising knowledge levels of the jobs being created across the U.S. economy. The result is a rising tide of vacant jobs (7 million estimated in August 2013). Many of these jobs are in science, technology, engineering, and mathrelated (STEM) occupations, but they exist across every major business

sector. The digital economy continues to automate more low- and medium-skilled jobs. Because this is raising the job-skills bar, businesses cannot fill more jobs unless they offer employee job training—which, on the whole, they have been reluctant to provide. Among Gordon’s employment- related books are Winning the Global Talent Showdown: How Businesses and Communities Can Partner to Rebuild the Jobs Pipeline (Berrett-Koehler, 2009) and The 2010 Meltdown: Solving the Impending Jobs Crisis (Praeger, 2005). This year, he published a follow-up book, Future Jobs: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis (Praeger, 2013), which he discussed with FUTURIST associate editor Rick Docksai. THE FUTURIST: Your new book’s topic, a shortage

of young people and older workers with adequate training for the future job market, is a subject that you’ve addressed in several books. How would you compare or contrast Future Jobs with your earlier books? Ed Gordon: My last book, Winning the Global Talent Showdown, was written for business and workforce professionals. The audience for Future Jobs includes parents, older students, educators, and leaders in business, economic development, unions, communities, and government. The difference is that we have now reached a tipping point in which the employee issue has become a society-wide concern. The U.S.

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labor market is out of sync with the career aspirations of many people. People do not understand how the labor market is moving right now. I’m explaining it to a broader audience, and I’m trying to give it some context. Future Jobs is divided into four parts. First, I provide research on what jobs will be in demand for the rest of this decade. Many are in technical areas. However, with 70 million baby boomers retiring, 66% of all jobs will be replacing them across every sector of the economy. I also explore how people can better match their aptitudes and interests to specific job and career areas. There are resources available that can provide up-to-date, state-by-state data on job availability. The second part of the book focuses on why we have this disconnect between jobs and skills. It’s global! The demand for talent and the supply of workers with the desired skills are out of balance all over the world. This is a major shift to a new talent era. It requires the majority of workers to acquire and maintain high skills and career knowledge throughout their working lives. After 40 years of school-reform efforts, numerous reports are raising red flags on the current condition of education in the United States and on how little has been achieved. Yes, the nation has bright kids, but the proportionality hasn’t increased since the 1970s. The current U.S. economy requires a larger proportion of high-achieving students in reading, math, and science than we are currently producing. In a prominent international test in mathematics, less than 10% of American students scored at the highest levels, while five nations—South Korea, Switzerland, Finland, Japan, and Belgium—saw 20% of students attain the top performance level. The United States is not creating more and more high-pay, low-skilled jobs. It’s creating more high-pay, high-skilled jobs. Most require a postsecondary credential of some kind: a four-year degree, a two-year degree, or some specialized career certification. People have to understand the context. No one said that earning a living in the twenty-first century is going to require less edu44

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cation. It’s going to require more. Part three of Future Jobs focuses on solutions to the jobs and skills disconnect, including education reform, business and government policy changes, and regional public–private partnerships, for which I have coined the term RETAINs—Regional Talent Innovation Networks. These RETAINs bring together all of a region’s principal community players to formulate a new shared vision that helps them reinvent the education-to-employment talent-creation system. These various intermediaries have many different names, such as High School Inc. (Santa Ana, California), the Vermilion Advantage (Danville, Illinois), or Pre-Hire (Mansfield, Ohio). Their main focus is to provide career information and education to both students and parents. They also furnish training and development to current workers, which helps ensure their future employment and keep businesses competitive. These major initiatives focus on rebuilding the jobs pipeline that connects people to good jobs and careers over a lifetime. They also are meant to reinforce the economic vitality of local businesses and regional economies. The fourth part of Future Jobs focuses on potential policy solutions for both business and government. It discusses how careful measurement of the return on investment in employee training and development can prove its worth. To improve the business outlook on training expenditures, I advocate giving businesses the option of capitalizing investments in human capital, just as they now can depreciate investments in plant and equipment, and providing small, privately held businesses with tax credits for their training and education expenditures. I also propose significant improvements in the education and preparation of both teachers and principals. Schools need far more freedom to diversify their instructional content and teaching methods. A number of recent international studies help point the way to achieving far better educational results for more students in community schools. THE FUTURIST: As you see it, then, educators and employers need

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more inspired leadership to work well together. Have they become too separated into their own respective silos? Gordon: That’s right, but this is also true of many other parts of communities, such as unions, civic organizations and associations, nonprofits, and individual citizens. Jobs and the labor market have changed enormously because digital technologies have transformed the way virtually every business and organization operates. We have long ignored the speed of these changes. RETAINs are now helping many regions break down these silos that maintained the status quo and forge new regional talent-creation systems. The purpose of Future Jobs is to familiarize a larger national/international audience with these issues. The book also offers people hope and direction on how to achieve workable local solutions for their communities. About 100 years ago, the United States made a major labor-market transition. Between 1890 and 1920, the new emerging technologies of that era caused a fundamental workplace shift from rural to urban, from farming and handmade to office and factory. During that time, the United States became the first nation in history to establish a comprehensive education-to-employment system. It offered tax-supported K-12 compulsory education to everyone. It took children out of the workplace, put women in high schools, and educated millions of recent immigrants. Businesses agreed to pay taxes to support this system. Unions supported vocational education programs and apprenticeship education. The twentieth-century U.S. education-to-employment system helped bring great prosperity to most Americans. However, socioeconomic conditions began changing rapidly in the 1970s. The twenty-first century has introduced even more agents of change. The chief difference between then and now is our holdover twentieth-century bureaucracy. It still vigorously defends the status quo of an earlier market era. The whole world is now engaged in this futuristic update, and that’s where the RETAIN concept comes

in. It requires sacrifice now. It requires civic engagement now. And it requires long-term thinking instead of short-term thinking. Some of these communities have started down this path sooner because the crisis started sooner within them. For example, it started during the late 1990s in Santa Ana, California, when small manufacturers couldn’t find the workers they needed. That’s why Santa Ana and these other communities are now leaders. I’m not saying that they have all the answers. All I am saying, as a social scientist and a business-educational consultant, is that we need to modify these systems, not destroy them. A central focus of RETAINs is rebuilding the education-to-employment pipeline. Ultimately, I believe that there will be enough RETAINS across a state so that there will be momentum to change the state mandates for education, business regulation, and tax law. This is a gradual process. T H E F U T U R I S T: S c h o o l s everywhere in the United States have been preoccupied with state and national assessment tests the last 10 years, thanks to No Child Left Behind, and we hear of classrooms not giving class time to anything that isn’t on one of the tests. One could imagine STEM-related initiatives like you describe not gaining traction in some schools for this very reason: Teachers figure that, since the material isn’t related to the tests, they’re not going to spend time on it. To what degree has this standardizedtest-dominated atmosphere been deleterious to STEM education, in your experience? And how hopeful are you that things may change? Gordon: I think that teaching to the test has largely been a failure. The idea of No Child Left Behind was to bring every child up to grade level within a 14-year period. That did not happen. You need to do assessment, but far too much time has been spent teaching to the test. Not enough time has been given to other areas of instruction. History, English, geography, the fine arts, and other areas of the curriculum have suffered. The Department of Education’s National Assessment of Edu-

cational Progress exams in reading and math show that there has been little progress in raising scores over the last 20 years. A significant percentage of fourth, eighth, and twelfth grade students now score “below proficient” in these basic subjects. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has said that, for a school to be successful, you need three components: good leadership from principals, outstanding teachers who are subject experts, and parents who are engaged in the learning process with their children. Looking for answers, Future Jobs analyzes the school systems of Finland, South Korea, and Singapore, where students score at the top in international exam comparisons. These nations recruit teachers from the top 5%–30% of college undergraduates for rigorous, high quality, graduate teacher education programs. In contrast, the bulk of U.S. teachers come from the bottom third of their college class. Teachers in these nations only begin teaching after they have completed graduate degrees and intensive internships. In contrast, most U.S. educators begin teaching with undergraduate degrees that include short studentteaching programs. In the United States, about 50% of new teachers quit within five years, largely because their education did not provide them with a good idea of what teaching entails and they are not provided with good mentors. South Korea, Finland, and Singapore also pay beginning teachers well by front-loading salaries so that they are comparable to those received by business school graduates. All these factors have elevated the status of the teaching profession in the cultures of these nations. Princi-

pals, in turn, are successful teachers who receive intensive graduate training to be both expert educators and expert people managers so that they can stimulate a much higher level of performance from both teachers and students. In the United States, there is too much emphasis on legal and bureaucratic aspects of school administration in the preparation of principals, while not enough is being done to help principals become good managers and leaders. The importance of parents in their children’s success in school does not receive the attention it deserves in the United States. Many parents don’t have the habits of supporting their kids’ education at home: encouraging them to read, helping them with homework, and structuring the child’s learning. And many parents even fight that idea that their child should have any homework. Parents are the primary motivators of their c h i l d re n . A s i a n American children are consistently the highest performers on nationally administered exams. It reflects the Asian cultural perspective that education is the key element in a child’s preparation and success in life. The United States would benefit from expanding educational diversity within communities and school districts. Charter schools that are expanding the school day and the school year, individualizing learning, providing quality tutoring, and maintaining high expectations for both students and teachers are good models. At the high-school level, what I call comprehensive career academies blend a strong liberal arts curriculum with specific practical career education courses and internship experiences. Apprenticeship education also needs to be expanded.

“No one said that earning a living in the twenty-first century is going to require less education. It’s going to require more.”

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November-December 2013

THE FUTURIST: It seems that some sectors are in more trouble than others when it comes to numbers of vacancies. For instance, health care has a larger pool of new professionals entering into it than do many software-related fields. You identify IT staff as the third-hardest job to fill, whereas nurse jobs are the eighthhardest. Why might software jobs be harder to fill? Considering that young people grow up immersed in computer technology, and given that it’s common knowledge that lucrative careers await those who earn software credentials in school, why aren’t more young people going into software and computers? This is a change from 2009, when nurse jobs were the second-hardest to fill and IT staff came in eighth. Why? Gordon: There are many issues in a health-care discussion. The recession has caused many people to put off seeking health care. As the babyboom generation ages, the demand for health care will soar. The career outlook is good for a very wide spectrum of health-care occupations. The amount of education that’s needed in health-care careers ranges from occupational certificates to two- or fouryear programs to graduate degrees. An IT job largely requires a fouryear college degree. The United States overall has very weak math and science education in local schools, and the situation is not improving. Most teachers in U.S. elementary schools receive very poor preparation to teach these subjects. Moreover, the best and brightest students in these subjects do not usually consider science and math teaching careers, because they are paid more in private industry. There is also a cultural reticence among women to go into certain IT sectors. Women have shunned these career areas because they’re perceived as being too male and too geeky. We need more women and minorities in IT. In general, STEM-related occupations have the brightest outlook. The U.S. Commerce Department estimates that, by 2018, STEM employment will grow by 17%, compared with 9.8% for other occupations. But people also need to keep in mind that there will be job openings in a 46

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wide variety of fields. Some 66% of the jobs that we will need to fill will be to replace retiring baby boomers. For instance, many of today’s journalists will retire by 2020, so there will be opportunities for young writing professionals to get some of those jobs. There has always been a major cultural lag here between what the labor market economy needs and what the career aspirations of students and their parents are. That imbalance is now bigger than ever. However, students and parents are now responding to the huge debts that were incurred for higher education degrees in fields that currently have few job openings. One result has been that many community colleges have become the new “grad schools” because many people who have undergraduate or even graduate degrees are going to community colleges to get career credentials for jobs that are vacant in their communities. THE FUTURIST: The solutions that you depict in North Dakota, California, Chicago, and elsewhere are all the more poignant, I felt, because in each one there was a shared commitment among businesses, government, and the community. All three reached out to the others and worked with them to help the youth to succeed. In today’s climate of political polarization, social tensions, and popular mistrust of government and businesses, some might wonder if this mutual outreach and shared sense of common good is even possible in a lot of places anymore. But on the other hand, if it can work in places as disparate as North Dakota, California, and Chicago, then perhaps it can work in many more places, too. What are your thoughts on this? Gordon: It’s amazing that all of this is happening, and it’s not being widely reported. Maybe the news media should shift its focus somewhat from the problems to solutions that seem to be working. I do believe that the solutions in North Dakota and elsewhere are replicable, as there are approximately a thousand RETAINS across the United States. The model is there. RETAINs need to be brought to scale, and the book shows commu-

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nity leaders how to adapt and scale up these solutions. At the end of Future Jobs, I offer some predictions on the future U.S. labor market. By 2020, the U.S. job market will be sharply and unevenly divided. Seventy-five percent of the available jobs will require higher skills and offer higher pay. Approximately 122 million workers will be needed to fill them. Fifty-five million of these workers will be qualified, with another 43 million semi-qualified (if further trained), to fill these positions (i.e., 98 million workers in all). At the same time, only about 25% of the available jobs will need lower skills and offer lower pay. About 41 million workers will be needed, but there will be 64 million low-skill workers competing for those jobs. Such a scenario will devastate the entire economy and create an expanding poverty cycle. Unless a new talent-creation system is in place by 2020 that has begun to alter those conditions, major social unrest across America will become a distinct possibility. I predict that the economy of the United States will return to health after the wrenching transition of this talent crisis. The jobs revolution and economic growth will continue as a new talent system addresses the turmoil of technological change and social malaise. As an optimist, I believe that American society’s greater flexibility and dynamism will prevail as it has in past eras. My hope is that Future Jobs will inspire people in many walks of life to take a proactive role in shaping that new jobs and talent era. ❑ About the Interviewee Ed Gordon is president of Imperial Consulting (imperialcorp.com), an economic historian, and author of Future Jobs: Solving the Employment and Skills Crisis (Praeger, 2013). His most recent article for THE FUTURIST was “The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers” (NovemberDecember 2012). This interview was conducted by Rick Docksai, associate editor of THE FUTURIST and World Future Review. E‑mail rdocksai@wfs.org.

Futurists Explore the Next Horizon KAZ OKADA FOR WFS

By Rick Docksai

Above: John Smart, president of the Acceleration Studies Foundation, addresses “Leadership of Technological Change.”

Bold ideas about humanity’s future went on full display

Left: Nicholas Negroponte of One Laptop Per Child reflects on technological and educational innovation in his opening plenary presentation.

at the World Future Society’s annual conference. Approximately 700 attendees debated

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game-changing developments like self-driving cars and 3-D printers, and speculated on where our world is heading and how it might get there.

hinkers and innovators from across the globe presented their best guesses about what the future holds for humanity at the World Future Society’s annual meeting. “WorldFuture 2013: Exploring the Next Horizon” convened July 1921 at the Chicago Hilton and hosted 80 discussion forums. About 700 attendees—from more than two dozen countries and from business, government, academia, and the nonprofit sector—took part in lively discussion and debate over emerging technolo-

gies, changing social mores, economic upheavals, and environmental challenges, and the impact each might have on human life in years to come. “Over time, you look back at how you once looked at the future, and for me, the future looks very different than how it looked 20 or 30 or 40 years ago,” said Nicholas Negroponte, founder of the prolific nonprofit One Laptop Per Child, in an opening plenary speech. He contrasted the seven years that it took

Bangkok to install a cable telecommunications system in the 1980s with the mere seven days that B olivia needed to install wireless communications throughout its entire territory. Likewise, no one in the 1980s seriously expected self-driving cars, and yet they are debuting now, Negroponte noted. He added that the day when they are a common sight on roadways could come soon, and that it could cut traffic congestion by as much as 90%: Much present-day traffic is humans looking for parking, whereas self-driving cars will park themselves much more quickly and efficiently. Self-driving cars were a hot topic at the conference: Charles Fadel, founder of the Center for Curriculum Redesign, pointed out that Google Autonomous Vehicles have driven a grand total of 300,000 miles and suffered just one minor accident. “How many taxi drivers do you know have driven 300,000 miles and only had one minor accident?” he said. Robots—automotive and otherwise—will take over many human jobs, but they may create other jobs in the process. Negroponte sees a long-term diminishment ahead in manufacturing jobs, but rapid growth in jobs in software. “From atoms to bits is going to be the jobs transition,” he said. “Whatever the future of jobs may be, it’s not in manufacturing.” There’s just one exception to this rule: 3-D printing. Growing volumes of manufacturing will take place via personal printers that fabricate products at a simple point-and-click. “The best way to manufacture something is to pour chemicals into a box with iPhones coming out,” said Negroponte. Fadel likewise sees a bright future ahead for 3-D printers in medicine and possibly in food production. The machines might tailor-make individual prostheses that fit every recipient perfectly, as well as revolutionize organ transplantation by growing new livers, kidneys, muscle tissue, and other needed body parts. And once human tissue can be printed, perhaps beef and pork could be, as well? Fadel imagines 48

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kitchen 3-D printers that churn out mit participants—including Gary gourmet meat dishes with no live Marx of the Center for Public Outreach; Carol Rieg, World Future animals required. “Grow muscle in your kitchen— Society board member and Bentley that’s extremely environmentally Systems corporate officer; Jo Ann friendly,” he said. “And imagine the Oravec, professor of business and texture and flavor of sauce that’s economics at the University of Wisfused inside the meat one layer at a consin–Whitewater; Helen Lazarro of the Flipped Learning Network; time.” aria H. Andersen, Association of On a less-savory note, Fadel also M went farther than Negroponte in Professional Futurists member and forecasting computer-led employ- Instructure learning and research diment upheavals. Even creativity- rector; and Jennifer Groff of the oriented jobs will be susceptible to Learning Games Network. machine automation, he KAZ OKADA FOR WFS said. Computers can already generate music, and future computers may dream up new technological inventions, through algorithms that identify technological needs and potential solutions by extrapolating from data. “Even inventions and innovations follow patterns. Anything that follows a pattern can become automatable,” Fadel said. “You could have a system that patents ahead just by looking at patterns and discovering things alongside you.” Humans will continue to find new employment alongside the machines, but their employability will depend on education systems becoming as adaptable as possible to incorporate vital new skills and deemphasize ones that no longer hold m u c h re l e v a n c e . A n d Maria H. Andersen gives a nuanced take on the inevery individual must re- creasing personalization and borderline “creepiness” of learn and revise his or her many consumer mobile devices and Web apps. own knowledge and skills throughout life. Andersen noted that computers “The safe bet for everything we’ve been talking about is continuously can save teachers time by taking up learning how to learn,” Fadel con- mundane tasks such as grading class work. cluded. “There is no reason for me as an instructor to sit and grade assignA Changing Paradigm for ments if a computer can,” Andersen Education said. “I would rather do other The potentially positive contribu- things, and most people who are tions that digital technology could teachers would rather do other make to education were explored by things.” Fadel and the other Education SumThe growing popularity of free on-

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line education programs, or Massively Open Online Courses (MOOCs), also received much attention. The median enrollment for a MOOC is 33,000 students, of which a median total of 2,600 finish with a passing grade, according to Oravec. That’s not as low as it sounds: Last year, she reports, she taught 225 students in her in-person classes—just a tenth of the students who completed and passed a single MOOC. On the plus side, online courses expand access to education enormously, said Oravec. Additionally, more corporations are starting to hire students based on exemplary performance on MOOCS. But there are issues of online privacy and academic freedom, as well as students’ rights: Students have no intellectual property rights to any material that they complete for a MOOC. Furthermore, no online course can offer the quality of interaction that students get from teachers in a classroom. “MOOCs can have some disturbing features as well as exciting features,” she said. Andersen, who has managed MOOCs for nine months, said that she certainly sees a role for these online courses in higher education but that there will be no replacing core academic curricula. Students need a baseline of knowledge to make sense of all the information that digital media presents them, she argued. “You cannot get through your life searching on Google if you don’t know what to search for,” she said. Also, many students will need a teacher present, in person, to hold them accountable for staying on task, she said. And they don’t find that accountability in a MOOC. “When your life gets busy, you just drop [the MOOC],” Andersen said. “Teachers are the ones that students should want to be accountable to. We are never going to want to be accountable to our computers.”

Technology Gets More Personal The more that we use our mobile phones and social-media sites, the more they come to know us and give us personal recommendations on products to buy, news to read, and events to attend. This personaliza-

“We’re kind of outracing climate tion phenomenon can be useful, but it also strikes many consumers as change and some of the other things slightly “creepy,” according to An- with our innovations and technolodersen. She described this dilemma gies,” Cooper said. Geospatial mapping, assisted by in her own session, “The Promises satellites and manned or unmanned and Perils of Personalization.” We will accept a certain level of aircraft, now enables us to compile creepiness, she said, if the service is detailed information on any spot on useful enough. Google Now and Earth and record indicators of its soil, animal life, and flora. This techFacebook are two examples. Andersen suggested that we might nology’s ongoing advancement will one day see Personal Life Operating make it continuously easier to idenSystem (PLOS) devices KAZ OKADA FOR WFS that each consumer will carry, which will store every bit of data about the owner ’s lifestyle. Walk into a store, and the store will register the PLOS and offer instant bonuses to preferred shoppers. Travel to a new city, and your PLOS will tell you entertainment options based on your usual entertainment choices. Step into a car, and the car ’s seat will instantly adjust to the settings that the PLOS tells the car you use. “Would you let somebody track all of your loyalty cards? Maybe Science-fiction writer Brenda Cooper discusses scientific not, but then the dis- breakthroughs of the present and the contributions they counts get bigger and could make to future efforts to protect and restore threatened ecosystems and wildlife species across the globe. you’re not getting them; then at some point you cave,” she said. “I think that they’ll get us there, and I think tify troubled areas and monitor efforts at protecting and restoring we’ll be happy when they do.” them. “We’re going to be able to say, Making Environmental ‘Where is every elephant in the Destruction a Thing of the Past world? Where is every bear in the Technological innovations will world?’ and that’s going to make a provide us some powerful new tools big difference for us as we try to to mitigate ecosystem destruction make the world a better place,” she and climate change, according to said. Brenda Cooper, futurist and scienceEven species that have already fiction writer who serves on the died out may be saved, via labs that board of the Lifeboat Foundation. In will clone new specimens from samher session, “Stepping Backwards ples of extinct species’ cells and into Eden”—one of a dozen special DNA. Two tissue banks are currently “22nd Century Lectures” at the con- collecting tissues from animals for ference—she looked into the conser- this very purpose. We can partner vation potential of roles for technolo- with nature through simpler, lowergies such as geospatial mapping, tech means, too, such as building unmanned aerial drones, and DNA ecosystem corridors to connect one sequencing. nature reserve with another, Cooper www.wfs.org

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suggested. Also, vertical farming in cities could allow us to return some existing farmland to nature.

Let the Sunshine In The Earth gets more energy from the sun in 10 seconds than all the energy that humans burn in an entire day, according to Ramez Naam, technologist and author. In his keynote presentation, “Innovating Our Way Past Global Crisis,” he explored the potential for breakthroughs in solar energy and other technology areas to help us overcome the crises of pollution, resource depletion, peak oil, and climate change. Tapping just a small fraction of that daily infusion of sunlight would be a momentous start, he said: We could cover just 0.3% of the Earth’s land mass in efficient solar panels and have all the energy that we would need. Product developments have been bringing solar arrays’ costs down precipitously, and could make this worldwide solar infrastructure affordable by the 2020s, he argued. This turn of events would save the planet from the toxic effects of fossilfuel use and offer developing countries a way toward sustainable prosperity, Naam said. Much of the developing world is very sunny and t h e r e f o r e v e r y s o l a r - e n e r g y - endowed. Once their communities acquire the tools for accessing this energy, they would have a valuable clean-energy export and a way to sustainably provide their own populations with power to desalinate water, build homes, and create better overall qualities of life. “If we can crack energy, so much more becomes possible. Energy can be the master resource that we can use to address so many other problems,” he said. World civilization is at a critical juncture right now, Naam also told his audience. The last hundred years saw dramatic improvements in living standards, life expectancies, and overall health, but it has also seen nonstop deforestation, destructive climate change, and an alarming depletion of the planet’s resource base. We can continue to improve living standards and human well-being 50

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Ramez Naam reviews the huge advancements in environmental and human health that technological innovations have achieved in the twentieth century, and assesses their potential for tackling the steep environmental and resource challenges of the twenty-first.

while protecting the planet, he continued. Innovations in farming, such as genetic crop modification, enable us to grow more food on less land. And family planning, taxes on pollution, and other policy measures can curb our species’ excessive strains on Earth’s ecosystems. Naam urged much more investment worldwide in environmental protection, poverty reduction, education, and research and development into energy efficiency and resource conservation. “The condition that we’re in is a race between massive consumption on one side and the powers of innovation on the other side,” Naam said. “You don’t win the race by saying, ‘We’re going to win,’ and just sitting there. You win the race by working hard.”

New Rules for New Markets The developing world is poised to lead a worldwide transformation in not just energy, but all commercial

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activity across the board, said Don Schultz, marketing professor at Northwestern University. In his session, “CN2: A Marcom Model for Emerging Markets,” he predicted that China, India, Brazil, southeast Asia, and other developing markets will be the source of 70% of growth in global GDP between now and 2025. Meanwhile, their share of global consumption will climb from 32% in 2012 to 50% in 2025. Businesses will find enormous market opportunities in these emerging markets—but only if they unlearn the traditional Western sales models. “Most of our new marketing concepts are going to be invented in China, India, and other emerging places,” he said. First, Western businesses are accustomed to appealing to the individual customer. But in many emerging markets, society is more communal, according to Schultz. A company will not attract many new buyers unless it builds up strong personal rapport with the would-be buyers’ families, clans, or communities. That requires some in-person negotiations, reciprocity, and, sometimes, gift giving. “You have to build an infrastructure before you build channels of distribution,” he said, noting that Walmart did not follow this rule when it tried to expand into Brazil, and consequently foundered there. Second, the businesses must also engage person-to-person with the customers. Communicating with them through social-media channels, conversing with them, and bargaining over prices will all go much farther than simply pitching clever ads and expecting customers to be persuaded by them. “You take the basic marketing concepts, turn them around, and look at them from the customers’ point of view,” he advised.

We Will Never Stop Evolving Are you taken aback by the many young people today who text- message frequently but rarely ever talk on the phone? This preference for talk-free interaction could just be the next step toward the eventual disappearance of speech, if you ask

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Linda Groff states her hopes that, as we progress technologically and evolutionarily, we will also advance ethically.

José Luis Cordeiro forecasts the end of disease, the attainment of de facto immortality, and the replacement of all human speech with instantaneous mind-to-mind thought exchange.

José Luis Cordeiro, chair of the Millennium Project’s Venezuela Node and founder of the World Future Society’s chapter in Venezuela. He foresees speech ultimately being replaced by instantaneous mind-tomind transmissions via brain– computer interface devices. “Talking is a very primitive technology, very low bandwidth,” he said. “I have to talk word by word and you have to listen word by word. In the future, I will just transfer my thoughts. This is how we will communicate in the future, at very high speed and in very high data transmissions.” Cordeiro co-hosted the session “Exploring the Next Horizon: Challenges for the Future Evolution of Humanity” with Linda Groff, professor of political science and future studies at California State University–Dominguez Hills, and Frank Catanzaro, chair of cyber futures for the Millennium Project. All three agreed that the process by which Homo sapiens evolved from tree-dwelling primates never

really stopped. Our species’ physical form will continue to change in centuries to come. The change process may even pick up speed, since we will directly guide it through technological interventions. “We are not the end of evolution. We are just the beginning of technological evolution, of conscious evolution. And we will transcend the limitations of our current state,” said Catanzaro. Cordeiro further predicted that, within another 20 or 30 years, we will cure diseases by sequencing living patients’ genomes and altering them, rendering the individuals immune to all major illnesses. We will also genetically thwart the aging process and keep ourselves healthy and vibrant indefinitely. Nature and technological innovation will combine to remake us once we venture out into space, according to Groff. She anticipates that the humans who leave Earth for the stars will have to physically change to withstand the radiation, low gravity, and other extreme conditions of www.wfs.org

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space. They might change so profoundly, in fact, that their children would not be able to survive in Earth’s biosphere. Meanwhile, back on Earth, some people will seek immortality by uploading their consciousness into computers in order to live as disembodied entities in cyberspace. Other people will take up new physical forms in robots or amalgamations of robot components and human tissue. “I think we will diverge in different ways. Our evolutions will diverge along many paths,” she said. We might evolve mentally and spiritually, as well. Groff hopes that, whatever physical metamorphoses that individuals do or do not undergo, we will all grow more connected as a species. Our intellects will expand and our connections to each other will grow stronger as we bind more intricately together as a universal human community. “All the people staying here on Earth, where limited resources are finite, we’re going to have to tune in and take care of Earth as a living sys-

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tem,” she said. “We will have to replace physical resources more with mind and creativity. At some point, something is going to break through, and we’ll move on to a new phase.”

Confessions of the Corporate Futurist at Ford Sheryl Connelly had never planned on becoming a career futurist. Then she started working at Ford Motor Company, where she discovered that looking to the future is key to survival in the automotive industry. She now serves as Ford’s global consumer trends and futuring manager, a position in which she forecasts market trends for the company. She shared her career story in a closing plenary speech, “Confessions of a Corporate Futurist.” It can take three or more years to bring a new car from the drawing board to development and market debut, she explained. Car designers have to design new models for tomorrow’s market; if they don’t, then their ideas might be obsolete by the time they are ready to hit show rooms. “Your job is to imagine something that has yet to be imagined by consumers,” she said. Connelly was initially a member of the company’s marketing team. Then in 2004, Ford selected her to serve on its new Global Trends and Futuring Team, with the task of spotting important market trends. “Becoming a futurist was not part of my plan. It was not something that I aspired to. I found myself in this job,” she said. Dramatic market changes were already afoot: surging gas prices, rising awareness of the environmental harms of automotive pollution, and a growing reluctance among the U.S. public toward dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Ford’s revenues took a nose dive. In 2005, the company was forced to cut a third of its workforce. But Ford recovered, thanks to quick thinking and a readiness to adapt. In 2008, while Chrysler and General Motors were headed toward bankruptcy, Ford was able to boast a completely revamped portfolio and qualify for lines of credit. 52

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Sheryl Connelly shares how she discovered futuring while working at Ford Motor Company and how, as a futurist, she has helped the car company stay afloat in the tough economic climate of the past decade.

“If you keep asking what if, what if, what if, you run into things that do eventually play out. And that’s part of the reason why Ford didn’t need the bailout when the real-world market crash came into play,” Connelly said. On another note, perhaps no car industry executive in 2008 anticipated Google becoming a competitor. Nonetheless, in 2013, Google is now well on its way toward taking the automotive world by storm with its driverless car. Five years ago, however, Ford was already prepared, Connelly said. It didn’t have a self-driving car, but it had patented “active park assist.” The human driver does the driving up until it is time to park, and then pushes a button. The car looks for a space, verifies that it is big enough, and moves itself safely into it.

Unconventional Possibilities On the Horizon “The human future depends on our ability to keep seeing outside the box and to respond to crises and to change,” said Linda Groff. “We will have to keep adapting to ever more diverse and complex factors that are external and within us.” Many businesses and government

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agencies issue reports in which they speculate on what the next quarter or year will bring. Only a minority extend their guesswork to the next 20 years, 50 years, or beyond. And scarcely any factor in such unconventional possibilities as sentient machines, cloned animals, or the end of human speech and rise of radical alterations to the human body. But the three days of WorldFuture teemed with bold, far-future concepts such as these. Its attendees gladly took up the outside-the-box thinking that Groff described and put conventional assumptions aside to look for the ways that our species might adapt to the challenges and opportunities that the future will bring us. Ideas ran a wide spectrum of opinions. Time will tell which ones the actual future most closely matches. ❑ About the Author Rick Docksai is the associate editor of THE FUTURIST and World Future Review. His article “Disappearing Forests? Actions to Save the World’s Trees” appeared in the September-October 2013 FUTURIST. E‑mail rdocksai@wfs.org. More coverage from WorldFuture 2013 online at wfs.org/futurist.

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listing of consulting futurists. For information about being listed in the directory, published in every issue of THE FUTURIST and available on the Web at www.wfs.org, call Jeff Cornish toll free at 1-800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274, or fax 301-951-0394.

Karl Albrecht International

Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking

San Diego, CA U.S.A. Phone: 858-576-1500 E-mail: futures@KarlAlbrecht.com Web: KarlAlbrecht.com Contact: Dr. Karl Albrecht Conference Keynote: “Possibilities: Getting the Future You Deserve — Survival Secrets of the World’s Oldest Companies.”

46 B/4 Jerusalem St., Kfar Saba, Israel 44369 Phone: 972-54-558-7940 Fax: 972-9-766965 Web: www.futurist-thinking.co.il E-mail: bisk@futurist-thinking.co.il Contact: Tsvi Bisk Strategic futurism: “Getting from Here to There” (Keynote speaker) Jewish, Mid-East and Mediterranean Futures (consulting).

Alsek Research Economic Futures

Christensen Associates, Inc.

7650 S. McClintoch Dr., #103-233 Tempe, AZ 85284 Phone: 480-225-2507 E-mail: jfoltz@alsekresearch.com Web: www.alsekresearch.com Contact: Joan Foltz Keynotes, workshops, and anticipatory analysis of global markets, investing, and business structures. Author of Market Whipped: And Not By Choice.

8168 Manitoba St., No. 2, Playa Del Ray, CA 90293-8291 Phone: 310-578-0405 Fax: 310-578-0455 E-mail: chris@camcinc.com Web: www.camcinc.com Contact: Chris Christensen, CMC Avoid devastating surprises! Exploit ANY future! Stimulating and entertaining keynotes, workshops, assessments, and consulting.

Alternative Futures Associates 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures-afa.com Contact: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, Eric Meade Vision and scenario development, strategic planning, trend analysis, workshop design and facilitation, presentations, keynotes, consulting.

Atlas Safety & Security Design, Inc. 770 Palm Bay Ln., Suite 4-I, Miami, FL 33138 Phone: 305-756-5027 Fax: 305-754-1658 E-mail: ratlas@ix.netcom.com Web: www.cpted-security.com Contact: Dr. Randall Atlas, AIA, CPP Pioneers in crime prevention through environmental design. Design of jails, prevention of premises liability lawsuits.

Aviv Consulting 15363 NE 201st St. Woodinville, WA 98072 Phone: 425-415-6155 E-mail: avivconsulting@gmail.com Web: www.avivconsulting.com Contact: Aviv Shahar Helping leaders and teams develop their vision and design the future. Innovation, strategy, coaching, consulting, retreats.

Joseph F. Coates, Consulting Futurist, Inc. 5420 Connecticut Ave. NW, #619 Washington, DC 20015-2832 Phone 202-363-7440 Fax 202-363-4139 Email: joe@josephcoates.com Web: www.josephcoates.com The future is my business: futures research, consultation, trend analysis, scenario development, visioning, scientific, technological and social forecasting, training, briefings, workshops, presentations and keynotes. Coates has been one of the most frequently cited authors in Future Survey and one of the most popular speakers at the World Future Society annual meetings. He is the author or co-author of six books, most recently A Bill of Rights for 21st Century America, and of 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. He has had assignments from half of the Fortune 100 firms, and has had published 290 articles on the future since 1990. He is also responsible for 200 proprietary reports to business, government and association clients. Coates will enlighten you on the future of any subject. Prepare for an unforgettable encounter.

M.Ed., LPC Adaptations today are the future. The authors of The Boids and the Bees tell how to guide adaptations in our living systems: healthcare, education, economy, even us.

Creating the Future, Inc. with Edward D. Barlow, Jr. 2907 Division St., Suite 109, St. Joseph, MI 49085 Phone: 269-982-1830 Fax: 269-982-1541 E-mail: info@creatingthefuture.com Web: www.creatingthefuture.com Contact: Ed Barlow (staff: Sandy, Tammy, and Tresea) Relating influences of a changing world to industries, organizations, professions, communities. Presentations, strategic planning facilitation.

de Bono For Business 248 W. Loraine St., #103, Glendale, CA 91202 Phone: 818-507-6055 E-mail: info@LyndaCurtin.com Web: www.deBonoForBusiness.com Contact: Lynda Curtin, the Opportunity Thinker Lift your thinking. Learn breakthrough futurist tools—lateral thinking, six thinking hats. Workshops. Keynotes. Facilitation.

FutureManagement Group AG Wallufer Strasse 3a, Eltville, Germany D-65343 Phone: 49-6123-7 55 53 Fax: 49-6123-7 55 54 Web: www.FutureManagementGroup.com E-mail: Office@FutureManagementGroup.com Contacts: Pero Micic, Claudia Schramm Use the “Eltville Model” of FutureManagement to see more of the future than your competitors!

Future Problem Solving Program International, Inc. 2015 Grant Pl., Melbourne, FL 32901 Phone: 321-768-0078 Fax: 321-768-0097 E-mail: mail@fpspi.org Web: www.fpspi.org Contact: Marianne Solomon, Executive Director FPSPI is an established educational program that provides a 6-step problem solving process to assist students as they think about the future.

Common Sense Medicine 812 W. 8th St., Suite 2A, Plainview, TX 79072 Phone: 806-291-0700 Fax: 806-293-8229 E-mail: drjonzdo@yahoo.com Web: www.commonsensemedicine.org Contact: Lon Jones DO, Jerry Bozeman

More consultants and services, next page www.wfs.org • THE FUTURIST November-December 2013 53 © 2013 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved.

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Innovation Focus Inc.

Leading Futurists LLC

1109 Main St., Ste. 299A, Boise, ID 83702 Phone: 208-345-5995 Fax: 208-345-6083 E-mail: JLuthy@futurescorp.com Web: www.futurescorp.com Contact: Dr. John Luthy Strategic thinking/planning; evolving leadership; organization redesign/development; trend analysis; scenario planning; business growth strategies.

111 E. Chestnut St., Lancaster PA 17602-2703 Phone: 717-394-2500 Web: www.innovationfocus.com Contacts: Christopher W. Miller, Ph.D.; Anne Orban, M.Ed. Innovation Focus is an internationally recognized consulting firm that brings innovation to all stages of product life cycle management and provides proven processes for deep customer understanding and meaningful innovation. Clients include: Kraft Foods, Kimberly Clark, WD-40, Bristol-Myers Squibb.

4420 49th St., NW, Washington, DC 20016 Phone: 202-271-0444 E-mail: jbmahaffie@starpower.net Web: www.leadingfuturists.biz Contacts: John B. Mahaffie, Jennifer Jarratt Futures consulting, workshops, scenarios, research, keynote talks to help organizations discover new opportunities and challenges. Members, Association of Professional Futurists.

The Futures Lab 2130 Goodrich Ave., Austin, TX 78704 Phone: 512-468-4505 E-mail: dwoodgate@futures-lab.com Web: www.futures-lab.com Contact: Derek Woodgate International futures-based consultancy specializing in consumer, business futures. Leaders in the future potential business.

Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey DaVinci Institute, 511 E South Boulder Road, Louisville, CO 80027 Phone: 303-666-4133 E-mail: deb@davinciinstitute.com Web: www.futuristspeaker.com Contact: Debra Frey Thomas Frey is Google’s top-rated futurist speaker and IBM’s most award-winning engineer. Author of Communicating with the Future—the book that changes everything. Speaking topics: future of business, work, education, transportation, government, and more.

The Greenway Group 25 Technology Pkwy. South, Suite 101, Norcross, GA 30092 Phone: 678-879-0929 Fax: 678-879-0930 E-mail: jcramer@di.net Web: www.greenway.us Contact: James Cramer, chairman Strategic change, trends, forecasts, research. Architecture and design technology. Journals: Design Intelligence. Publications: The Almanac of Architecture & Design, How Firms Succeed, Design + Enterprise, Leadership by Design, Communication by Design, Value Redesigned.

H.G. Hudson and Associates 34 Warren Dr., Newport News, VA 23608 Phone: 757-874-5414 E-mail: HUDSON2059@msn.com Contact: Henry G. Hudson, president and CEO Management consulting help in advanced administrative services, operations, systems, methods, procedures, policies, strategy, and management.

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Institute for Alternative Futures 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures.com Contacts: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, William Rowley, MD Uses research reports, workshops, scenarios, and visioning to help organizations understand future possibilities and create their “preferred future.”

Institute for Global Futures 2084 Union St., San Francisco, CA 94123 Phone: 415-563-0720 Fax: 415-563-0219 E-mail: info@globalfuturist.com Web: www.GlobalFuturist.com Contact: Dr. James Canton Futures based keynotes, consulting and research for any vertical industry by leading futurist James Canton.

Institute for Participatory Management and Planning P.O. Box 1937, Monterey, CA 93942-1937 Phone: 831-373-4292 Fax: 831-373-0760 E-mail: ipmp@aol.com Web: www.ipmp-bleiker.com Contacts: Annemarie Bleiker, Hans Bleiker, Jennifer Bleiker We offer a Leadership Boot-Camp for guiding complex problem-solving and decision-making efforts.

KAIROS Future AB P.O. Box 804, S-10136 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: (46 8) 545 225 00 Fax: (46 8) 545 225 01 E-mail: info@kairosfuture.se Web: www.kairosfuture.se Contacts: Mats Lindgren, Anna Kiefer Values, work, technology, marketing. Methods: scenarios, studies, lectures, seminars, consulting. Public and private sectors.

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MG Rush Performance Learning 1301 W. 22nd St., Suite 603, Oak Brook, IL 60523 Phone: 630-954-5880 Fax: 630-954-5889 E-mail: futurist@mgrush.com Contacts: Terrence Metz, 630-954-5882; Kevin Booth, 630-954-5884 Facilitation of, and facilitator training for: scenario planning, strategy development, group decision-making, workshop design, ideation, option development and analysis, and training of facilitative leadership.

Minkin Affiliates 135 Riviera Dr., #305, Los Gatos, CA 95032 Phone: 408-402-3020 E-mail: barryminkin@earthlink.net Web: minkinaffiliates.com Contact: Barry Minkin Keynote speaker, bestselling author, global management consultant, three decades linking emerging trends to consumer and market strategy.

Next Consulting 104 Timber Ridge Rd., State College, PA 16801 Phone: 814-237-2575 Fax: 814-863-4257 E-mail: g7g@psu.edu Web: nextconsulting.us Contact: Geoffrey Godbey, Ph.D. Repositioning leisure/tourism organizations for the near future. Speeches, ideation, imagineering. Client list on request.

Jim Pinto Technology Futurist 2805 Ocean St. #2, Carlsbad, CA 92008 Phone: 858-353-5467 E-mail: jim@jimpinto.com Web: www.JimPinto.com Contact: Jim Pinto Speaker and consultant: technology futures, industrial automation, global business trends, Internet business relationships.

Pinyon Partners LLC 140 Little Falls St., Suite 210, Falls Church, VA 22046 Phone: 703-651-0359 E-mail: pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com Web: www.pinyonpartners.com Contacts: Peter B.G. Shoemaker; Dan Garretson, Ph.D. Quantitative and qualitative. Art and Science. However you want to characterize it, our distinctive combination of the hard-nosed and the deeply intuitive is perfectly suited for those navigating over the horizon. Expansive explorations of what’s next; engaging engagements with change; consultations, workshops, research, and talks aimed at creating future-oriented clarity, purpose, insight, and confidence. Member, Association of Professional Futurists.

Qi Systems 35 Seacoast Terr., Apt. 6P, Brooklyn, NY 11235 Phone: 718-769-9655 E-mail: QiSys@msn.com Web: www.qisystems.org Contact: Ronn Parker, Ph.D. Spectrum Counseling: conflict resolution, conscious evolution, martial arts, meditation methods, mindbody strategies, transformational learning.

David Pearce Snyder, Consulting Futurist The Snyder Family Enterprise, 8628 Garfield St., Bethesda, MD 20817-6704 Phone: 301-530-5807 Fax: 301-530-1028 E-mail: david@the-futurist.com Web: www.the-futurist.com Contact: Sue Snyder High-impact motivating presentations. Strategic assessments, socio-technologic forecasts/scenarios. Keynote addresses, strategic briefings, workshops, surveys.

Strategic Futures® Strategic Futures Consulting Group, Inc. 113 South Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone: 703-836-8383 Fax: 703-836-9192 E-mail: info@strategicfutures.com Web: www.strategicfutures.com Contact: Ron Gunn or Jennifer Thompson Strategic planning, succession planning including mentoring, executive coaching, organizational change facilitation, and matrix management assistance.

SynOvation Solutions 455 Hazelwood Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94127 Phone: 415-298-3008 E-mail: info@synovationsolutions.com Web: www.synovationsolutions.com

Contacts: Bruce L. Tow, David A. Gilliam Future-is-now resources to help you achieve key and mission-critical breakthroughs or creatively evolve your business to meet future challenges.

Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd. Belsize Park, London NW3 UK Phone: 44-207-449-2903 Fax: 44-870-136-5560 E-mail: www.hardintibbs.com Web: www.synthstrat.com Contact: Hardin Tibbs, CEO Synthesys specializes in using futures research to develop innovative strategies. Based in London UK, with international experience in both the public and private sectors, across many different industries. Projects include horizon scanning, strategic sense-making, scenarios, vision building, assumption testing, and strategy formulation, either as expert input or by co-production directly with leadership teams.

The TechCast Project Department of Information Systems & Technology Management, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052 Phone: 202-994-5975 E-mail: Halal@gwu.edu Web: www.techcast.org Contact: William E. Halal, professor, George Washington University; president, Techcast LLC TechCast is an online research project that pools the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Results are updated in real time and distributed to corporations, governments, and other subscribers to aid in their strategic planning. The project has been featured in The Washington Post, Newsweek, The Futurist, and various journals. The National Academies consider TechCast among the best systems available, and Google ranks it No. 2 or 3 out of 45 million hits. TechCast also gives presentations, conducts customized studies, and performs most types of consulting related to technology and strategic change.

Town and Gown Relations Kemp Consulting, LLC P. O. Box 342, Meriden, CT 06450-0342 Phone: 203-686-0281 E-mail: rlkbsr@snet.net Web (consulting): www.rogerlkemp.com Web (background): www.rogerkemp.org Contact: Roger Kemp, MPA, MBA, PhD, President Dr. Kemp has been author and editor of over a dozen books dealing with issues relating to cities (towns) and colleges (gowns). He gives keynote speeches, strategic briefings, and does futures research and consulting on emerging

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trends dealing with the dynamic and evolving field of town-gown relations.

21st Century Learning LLC 10 Jamaicaway, Suite #18, Boston, MA 02130 Telephone: 978-204-2770 Email: charlesfadel@gmail.com Web: www.21stcenturyskillsbook.com Contact: Charles Fadel, founder and best-selling author: 21st Century Skills; visiting scholar, Harvard GSE and MIT ESG. Education’s futures, as impacted by Technology, and along the dimensions of Knowledge, Skills, Character, and Metacognition. Keynotes and seminars on global education; education technology; neuroscience of learning; creativity & innovation; artificial intelligence & augmented intelligence.

van der Werff Global, Ltd. 4958 Crystal Circle, Hoover, AL 35226 Phone: 888-448-3779 Fax: 888-432-9263 E-mail: terry@globalfuture.com Web: www.globalfuture.com Contact: Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC Confidential advisor to corporate leaders worldwide on global trends, executive leadership, and strategic change.

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. 200 E. 33rd St., Suite 9I, New York, NY 10016 Phone: 212-889-7007 Fax: 212-679-0628 E-mail: info@weineredrichbrown.com Web: www.weineredrichbrown.com Contact: Arnold Brown, Edie Weiner For over two decades, the pioneers in detecting emerging trends and linking them to a ction.

Xland sprl 111 Av Grandchamp, Brussels, Belgium 1150 Phone: 32-475-827-190 Fax: 32-2-762-46-08 Web: www.xland.be E-mail: xland@skynet.be Contact: D. Michel Judkiewicz Trend analysis, scenarios, forecasting opportunities/threats based on strong and weak signals for resilient strategies.

Connect! Link to futurist consultants and services online at www.wfs.org/consultants

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

Reviews Expanding the Predictable Universe By Patrick Tucker

Data scientist Eric Siegel explains the brave, new, and surprising world of predictive analytics. Whenever you go to a major merchandise retailer and pull items off the shelf, you create a little piece of information that the retailer stores in a database. As more people pull items off those shelves, the retailer has the opportunity to learn something about all of you, in real time, and can use that information to predict what you might be interested in buying next. With the emergence of extremely large databases and everbetter transaction records, the relationship between what we buy, where we go, and what we might do next is becoming ever more clear. In his new book, Predictive Analytics, researcher Eric Siegel refers to this computerized semi-clairvoyance as “the prediction effect.” Siegel achieved some small notoriety in 2012, when New York Times writer Charles Duhigg interviewed him on a story about predictive analytics (PA). Siegel recalls that Duhigg “asked for interesting discoveries that had come from PA. I rattled off a few that included pregnancy prediction.” Siegel directed him to a video from one of the many PA conferences that Siegel runs. The video was a keynote presentation by data scientist Andrew Pole of Target, discussing how Target used data from its massive baby-registry service to predict pregnancy through consumer habits. For instance, many women, upon discovering that they are pregnant, may put unscented skin lotion on their registries, since pregnancy can dry out skin and scented lotion can have a negative effect on a developing fetus. The

switch to unscented l u n c h . Ve g e t a r i a n s baby lotion can serve who have preordered as one of many predica special meal on an tors of pregnancy—an airline are much more issue of keen interest likely to make their to Target, since expectflight than other pasant mothers can besengers. People in the come much more profCongo buy phone itable customers. cards in anticipation The Target model, in of upticks in violence. the words of Siegel, And when you stop “identified 30 percent smoking, you increase more customers for the likelihood that Target to contact with your friends will quit pregnancy-oriented by 36%. marketing material—a Siegel also goes into significant marketing Predictive Analytics: The considerable depth on Power to Predict Who Will success story.” predictive-analytics Click, Buy, Lie, or Die by Eric Duhigg’s piece, timethodologies, particSiegel. Wiley. 2013. 302 tled “How Companies pages. $28. ularly uplift modeling, Learn Your Secrets,” defined as “a model had a rather more that predicts the influskeptical take on Target’s use of ana- ence of an individual’s behavior that lytics to predict consumers’ medical results from applying one treatment condition. In effect, he showed that over another.” One example of this is Target was able to predict that one the A/B test, which has been around young customer was pregnant be- for some time. In an A/B test for fore she had informed her father, re- marketing, for instance, one group of sulting in some rather awkward con- people will be shown one ad, anv e r s a t i o n s w h e n s a i d f a t h e r other group a second ad, and a third discovered coupons for baby goods group—the control group—no ad at addressed to his daughter in his all. mailbox. To understand how predictive anAfter appearing on the front page alytics has reached its current level of the New York Times, Duhigg’s of importance and power, consider article was picked up by the Daily that, just a few decades ago, A/B Show, the Colbert Report, Fox and tests were the domain of big marketFriends, and numerous other outlets. ing firms that could afford months His book, The Power of Habit (Ran- and sometimes years of focus group dom House, 2012), went on to be- testing. Today, you participate in this come a best seller. For most viewers sort of testing whenever you go onand readers, this was their first intro- line, and click on certain ads and not duction to the field of predictive an- others. It is automatic and ubiquialytics, and the message conveyed tous in an online environment. With was clear and alarming: Marketers just a small amount of training, you will use your big data against you. can get a good result, an actionable In Predictive Analytics, Siegel offers insight—or what Siegel calls a prea defense of the field and a portrait diction effect. that is far less menacing toward conPredictive analytics can be used sumers. He also does an ample job of unethically as well as ethically, but it explaining how consumer data be- will certainly become much more comes predictive, with many sur- common. It’s an inexorable trend prising insights gleaned through PA. driven by the massive amounts of For instance, you’re more likely to data we create as consumers (1.8 buy plane tickets around 10 a.m., to million megabytes a year in the go to a retail Web site at 8 p.m., and United States) and what that data recheck your stocks at 1 p.m., just after veals about intent and probability.

We create the future through our actions, and we are increasingly doing so in a way that is measurable. Understanding the process by which that happens is useful and empowering, even for consumers. As we better understand some of the coercive tactics that marketers use against us, we can edit our behavior. Whether you agree or disagree with the ethics of some of these tactics, they’ve become a part of the world and our future. About the Reviewer Patrick Tucker is the director of communications for the World Future Society and deputy editor of THE FUTURIST magazine. He is the author of the forthcoming book The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (Current, 2014).

Debating the Singularity By Cynthia G. Wagner

What it is, whether it’s coming, and how it will affect us are all subjects for debate among leading futurists in this documentary. Will we survive our Technology, the provocative tag line of The Singularity, a documentary by filmmaker Doug Wolens, immediately sets an alarming tone for an otherwise wellbalanced examination of what could potentially be the most significant technological transformation that humanity has ever unleashed upon itself. Wolens is a former attorney turned independent filmmaker. His approach to this material was to collect the best minds working in fields related to the technologies being developed (artificial intelligence, neuroscience, nanotechnology, genetics, robotics), as well as philosophers,

The Singularity, written, directed, and edited by Doug Wolens, i-maginemedia. 2012. 75 minutes, plus 90 minutes of extended interviews, including Ray Kurzweil (above). Web site www.thesingularityfilm.com.

scholars, policy analysts, and others who could provoke alternative thinking with their probing What if questions and scenarios. The talking-head interviews are well placed to simulate a true roundtable discussion, but without the ability of the individuals to interact with each other. This allows all to have their say without interruption (except the editor’s judicious cuts), and the debate remains far more polite than we’ve come to expect on weekend talk shows. The star of the documentary is inventor Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity Is Near (Viking, 2005) and How to Create a Mind (Viking, 2012), which outlines the steps necessary to www.wfs.org

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build an artificial digital neocortex— a key step in the accelerating march to the Singularity. And what is “the Singularity”? Kurzweil responds clearly and simply: In essence, it is when we capture the power of the human brain in a machine. “By 2045, that intelligence will be a billion times more powerful than all biological intelligence on Earth today,” he predicts. “That’s the Singularity.” Kurzweil is consistently named one of the top futurist visionaries working today. As a “star” both in the field of futurism and in this documentary, he is clearly the target of other interviewees’ criticism; he him-

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November-December 2013

Reviews

self seems to be targeted as often as his ideas or forecasts. Indeed, that might be deemed a highly human response among critics. As Ralph Merkle, senior research fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing, observes dryly: “Kurzweil is fascinating. He has a very strong penchant for analyzing data.” Brad Templeton, director of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, is a little more direct: “Ray is sometimes too optimistic.” And Eliezer Yudkowsky, cofounder of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, argues: “Ray Kurzweil tries to convert the brain to computing cycles and then extrapolate ahead to say when we’ll have enough computing cycles to match the hardware capability of the human brain. From my perspective, you can’t convert the human brain to computing hardware.” Critics of Kurzweil’s scenarios are more passionate than those of his

science. While journalist Glenn Zorpette is simply unpersuaded by Kurzweil’s projections (“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The kind of evidence that Ray presents is voluminous, but it’s not convincing or extraordinary”), Middlebury College scholar Bill McKibben is especially alarmed by them. He attributes Kurzweil’s and other scientists’ enthusiasm for the Singularity to actually being “freaked out about the possibility that they’re going to die.” The enthusiasm, in McKibben’s mind, should be a warning: “There are people in that community who are deeply, evangelically committed to the future they’re building. I admire them for that zeal. I just think that, like zealots of all kinds, we should examine very closely what it is they’re trying to get the rest of us to do. The human track record with zeal is less than stellar.” The magnitude of the potential impacts is a practical reason to be wary

of the technologies and their uses. As Yudkowsky puts it, “If we get this wrong, it doesn’t matter what else we got right.” At the same time, it is the very magnitude of what may be ahead for humanity that inspires others. Alison Gopnik, University of CaliforniaBerkeley, professor of psychology and philosophy, observes that we fear our humanity will be diminished as we increase our interaction with computers—just as Socrates once feared that people learning to read and write would lose their memories. But what if the Singularity increases our humanity? “You can hope that what will happen is that the technology will [make us] be able to do things we couldn’t before without even knowing that it’s happened,” Gopnik concludes. About the Reviewer Cynthia G. Wagner is editor of THE FUTURIST. E-mail cwagner@wfs.org.

Interviewees in The Singularity In order of appearance: • R a y K u r z w e i l , * N a t i o n a l Medal of Technology recipient, inventor • Ralph Merkle, senior research fellow, Institute for Molecular Manufacturing • Brad Templeton, director, Electronic Frontier Foundation • Jonas Lamis, technology entrepreneur; founder, CEO, Rally • Paul Saffo, Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Stanford University • E l i e z e r Yu d k o w s k y, c o founder, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence • Peter Voss, founder and CEO, Adaptive AI Inc. • Ben Goertzel, founder, Novamente LLC • Chris Phoenix, co-founder, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology • Peter Norvig, director of research, Google

THE FUTURIST

• Alison Gopnik,* professor of psychology and philosophy, University of California, Berkeley • David Chalmers,* director, Centre for Consciousness; professor of philosophy • Christine Peterson, president and co-founder, Foresight Nanotech Institute • Wolf Singer, director, Max Planck Institute for Brain Research • Christof Koch,* professor of cognitive and behavioral biology, California Institute of Technology • Andy Clark, professor of philosophy, University of Edinburgh • Marshall Brain, founder, HowStuffWorks • Barney Pell, chief architect for local search, Bing/Microsoft • Cynthia Breazeal, director, Personal Robots Group, MIT Media Lab • Bill McKibben,* scholar in residence, Middlebury College

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• Richard A. Clarke,* cyberterrorism advisor, Clinton and Bush administrations • Matt Francis, professor of chemistry, University of California, Berkeley • David Friedman, economist, professor of law, Santa Clara University • Leon Panetta, then–U.S. Secretary of Defense • Glenn Zorpette, executive editor, IEEE Spectrum • Aubrey de Grey, chief science officer, SENS Foundation • Doug Wolens (writer/director) is a former attorney who became an independent filmmaker in 1993. His documentaries have appeared in numerous festivals and been aired on PBS’s POV series. * denotes extended interview available in the DVD’s bonuses.

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WORLDFUTURE 2014:

What If

The Annual Conference of the World Future Society July 11-13, 2014 • Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. What if they cut my budget? … What if everything was free? … What if I get sick or injured? … What if we lived forever? Questions about the future range from the immediately practical to the infinitely imaginative, and “What If” questions are often our first step in exploring tomorrow’s possibilities. WorldFuture 2014, the World Future Society’s next annual meeting, will draw from the creative and enriching atmosphere of its setting in Orlando, Florida! The two-and-a-half-day meeting will offer a variety of session formats, interactive activities, fascinating speakers on cutting-edge topics, and a diverse audience from around the world, representing a wide spectrum of interests, backgrounds, fields, and philosophies. Back to ignite the imaginations of futurists will be our popular “petting zoos” for technologies and ideas—Futurists: BetaLaunch 2014 (#FBL14) on Friday and the Poster Sessions on Saturday—highlighting the conference’s two evening receptions. Speed Futuring, the participant-led discussion roundtable, will also be back for WorldFuture 2014, encouraging us all to explore each other’s “What if” scenarios. Confirmed speakers include: • Paul Saffo, co-founder and managing director of Foresight at DISCERN, consulting associate professor at Stanford University, and visiting scholar at Stanford Media-X. • Karen Moloney, business psychologist, writer, and futurist specializing in gender issues, will address the Future of Sex—Bio-Sex, Techno-Sex, Mind-Sex, and more. • Raj Bawa, president/patent agent, Bawa Biotech LLC, and adjunct professor, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. • Arnulfo Valdivia, director of the Institute for Mexicans Abroad. During President Peña’s tenure as State of Mexico’s governor, Dr. Valdivia served as his advisor for foreign affairs and, during the presidential transition period, as advisor for migratory issues. • Joergen Oerstroem Moeller, visiting research fellow at Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, and adjunct professor at Singapore Management University and Copenhagen Business School.

PHOTOS: KAZ OKADA FOR WFS

• Gil Meyer is director of Global Issues Management & Trend Analysis, DuPont Company. He has been with DuPont for 26 years, serving in a wide range of public affairs and regulatory affairs roles. His current assignment includes nanotechnology issues management, recall preparedness, chemicals risk management, synthetic biology, crisis preparedness, and pandemic planning.

New for WorldFuture 2014 (#WF14) The organizers are planning a day-long Science Fiction Symposium (#SciFiSym) to draw together the work and ideas of two historically related fields. What futuring tools do science-fiction authors use to create plausible scenarios of the future? And what techniques can futurists borrow from fiction writers? We’re planning to bring several of your favorite futurist–SciFi authors together for a day of readings, roundtables, and meet-and-greets, concluding with a relaxed evening reception. Already confirmed are: • Ramez Naam, author of Nexus and its sequel Crux, is a professional technologist, a former software developer at Microsoft, and the author of several nonfiction books. • Brenda Cooper, author of The Creative Fire and The Silver Ship and the Sea, is a futurist, conservationist, and the Chief Information Officer of the City of Kirkland, Oregon. • Brad Aiken, author of medical technothriller Mind Fields, is a doctor specializing in rehabilitation medicine, and has written several medically oriented sci-fi stories.

The WorldFuture Experience What makes futurists return each year for the WorldFuture conference experience? And what draws new futures-explorers to this unique event? Here are just a few of the reviews from WorldFuture 2013: “Amazing event! I met some great people, had so much fun.… I am looking forward to many more.” “World Future Society conference this past weekend was outstanding.” “A superb meeting.… Another brilliant performance!!! A true pleasure to be part of such a stellar society.” “It was my first and won’t be my last. Kudos to all staff and volunteers.” “I’ll be using the learnings and inspiration on coming projects. Hope to see you all again soon!”

About the Conference Hotel: Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek Just three minutes from Epcot! WorldFuture 2014 will take place at the Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek, a full-service resort and spa within a 482-acre nature preserve. Amenities at this Four Diamond AAA property include a championship golf club and premier spa, plus convenient access to Disney World and other Orlando attractions. The World Future Society has secured an outstanding discounted room rate of $149 per night, valid from July 8 through July 13. But the best part of reserving your room at the conference venue now is that you’ll guarantee the most convenient access to all of the events—and your fellow participants—at WorldFuture 2014! Keep the conversations and connections going.

WORLDFUTURE 2014: What If The Annual Conference of the World Future Society July 11-13, 2014 • Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek • Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. Yes! I want to meet, exchange ideas with, and learn from my futurist colleagues. Please reserve my place at the World Future Society’s WorldFuture 2014. I understand registration includes admission to all sessions, the welcome reception, entrance to exhibits, and a list of pre-registrants. And if for any reason I am unable to attend, I may cancel and receive a full refund until June 13, 2014. Register by October 31, 2013

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Hotel reservation forms will be sent with the acknowledgment of registration, or you can call the hotel directly at 1-888-353-2013 or 1-407-597-3821. Mention that you’re attending the WFS meeting to receive your special rate of $149 USD (single or double) per night, or use the reservation code ZWOF. REFUND POLICY: If your plans to attend the conference change, you may receive a full refund until June 13, 2014. A $100 administrative fee will be charged for cancellations after June 13, 2014. No refunds will be given after June 27, 2014. Refund requests must be in writing by email, mail, or fax. Substitutions may be made at any time and are free until June 13, 2014. Substitutions are $100 after June 13, 2014. A member may register additional persons (friend, colleague, spouse, etc.) at the member rate. Please include the sponsoring member’s name and identification number here. Name

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Future View

continued from page 64 parks and reserves. However, in the very long term—millions of years— this new technology acquired by grasses could lead to the appearance of new plant families. These could perform important roles in developing new ecosystems, similar to the role that the bean family took in fixing nitrogen for current ecosystems. Many of our technological developments have downsides that are often unanticipated. Atomic science led to nuclear energy, but also to nuclear war, Chernobyl, F ukushima, and dirty bombs. Likewise, GM work brings with it many potential future hazards. For example, if a modified virus or bacterium were used to induce sterility in pest species—as has been proposed for fox control in Australia—the virus could jump species. More worrying, the technology could be developed for other, unethical purposes. What if a deranged “environmentalist” working in a viral laboratory decided that the only way to save the planet was to release a humansterilizing virus? In a distant future, one where there is a major climate change brought on by human activity, the species that are most adaptable and successful in our time are likely

to become dominant. Among mammals, these are mostly small, short-lived species with a rapid turnover. Rodents are thus perhaps best placed to become the future dominant mammal life-form. They may well embark on a new adaptive radiation similar to the primitive insectivores existing 65 million years ago. These evolved into everything from whales and bats to elephants and humans. Humankind has introduced intelligence-based evolution to Earth for the first time. We are using this to change everything and are progressively building a machine world around us that is fast becoming more intelligent and controlling. Perhaps it could lead to the emergence of a new life-form, based on the human model and all our technology—a chimera of DNA, mechanics, and interconnected quantum computer brainpower. This truly could be a turning point for the future of life on Earth. ❑ About the Author Jan Taylor is a zoologist who lectured in the Zoology Department at the University of Western Australia for eight years. This article includes material presented in his book The End of Humankind (2011), a confronting science novelette based in the distant future examining why the human race died out.

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THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

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THE FUTURIST

November-December 2013

Future View By Jan Taylor

Evolution or Extinction? Humanity’s Future Legacy

With our growing ability to impact life on this planet, for better and for worse, we must consider more deeply the unanticipated consequences of our technological choices, a zoologist warns. Sixty-five million years ago, an asteroid struck the Earth and caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. It also opened the planet to the rise of flowering plants and to mammal domination. Earth’s geological record is punctuated by extinction events that have altered the course of evolution. All previous extinction events have opened the planet to the evolution of new species, new families of plants and animals, and new ecosystems. Most were caused by the climate changes arising from massive volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts; others, by combinations of solar activity or cycles in the Earth’s orbit. Now, we humans may be creating an extinction event ourselves, which will have a major impact on the future of life on Earth. We are spreading weeds, pests, and domestic species all over the world. We are destroying local native species and making room for our introduced animals and plants to thrive and evolve into new species. They will give rise to new ecosystems made up from a mix of residual native species and all the animals, plants, fungi, bacteria, and viruses we have spread over the planet. There are probably many other lasting effects of our presence on the planet, including future technological developments we have not thought of yet. The question arises as to whether any of our current and near-future technological breakthroughs are going to have a major impact. One area that has a huge potential to reap long lasting change is the work we are doing in genetic modification (GM)—inserting genes in places where they are unlikely to come by natural processes. These changes have rarely occurred in the past but have had major impacts on future evolution. Our food supplies depend hugely upon various grass seeds—rice, wheat, maize, etc. All these require nitrogen fertilizers to produce successfully. With GM and other methods, it may be possible to produce varieties of these crops that can produce their own nitrogen fertilizer. The result, many believe, will be a huge benefit for poor farmers in large parts of the world, where food is

scarce and fertilizers are too expensive. It would also reduce the amount of pollution from runoff. There is a good chance that in the next 50 years this will become a reality. It will be the new green revolution. Will it have similar effects? Apart from the clear positive results, the green revolution brought about huge social change, with rich farmers buying out poor farmers, who quickly lost their money and flocked to city shantytowns. Local pest- resistant crops were replaced by green revolution crops, which needed much fertilizer and insecticidal spraying. Natural predators, including birds and insects, disappeared when spraying had to be increased to control insecticide-resistant pests. And runoff was polluted. Grain became too expensive for the local poor, but production greatly increased—so much so that much is now converted into biofuel. In some places, the old varieties are being resurrected for their natural resistance to pests. What can we expect from the new nitrifying grasses? Maybe we will not get the fertilizer-runoff problems, but the extra nutritional value of the plants could lead to serious insect outbreaks and overuse of pesticides. Over the longer term, the modified plants could pass a presumed beneficial trait—making their own nitrogen fertilizer—on to other species, including pasture grasses. This may make them into difficult weeds that are likely to invade other crops, as well as national continued on page 62

Back Issues of The Futurist September-October 2013 (Volume 47, No. 5) Special Report: Top 10 Disappearing Futures • A Radical Future for Nanotechnology • The Great Comeback: Bringing a Species Back from Extinction • The New Renaissance Is In Our Hands • Biodiversity “After Earth”

July-August 2013 (Volume 47, No. 4) Mapping the Future with Big Data • New Tools for War and Peace: Technology Game Changers • The Rise of Citizen Science • Life Imitates Art: Cyborgs, Cinema, and Future Scenarios • Transition Engineering: Planning and Building the Sustainable World • Anticipatory Governance: Winning the Future • 10 Future-Changing Inventions Ready to Launch

May-June 2013 (Volume 47, No. 3) Pop Goes the Algorithm • Robots at Work: Toward a Smarter Factory • Highly Human Jobs • Women 2020: Our Selves, Our Worlds, Our Futures • Healthier Foresight Diets • Sci-Fi and the Trans-simian Future

March-April 2013 (Volume 47, No. 2) How to Make a Mind • Asimov’s Embarrassing Robot • How Innovation Could Save the Planet • Five Economies That Work • Educating the Future: The End of Mediocrity • Foresight as Dialogue • In 30 Years, Everyone Will Be Beautiful

January-February 2013 (Volume 47, No. 1)

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Building the Global Innovation Economy • Food, Fuel, and the Global Land Grab • Crime in the Year 2030 • Eldering: Aging with Resilience • The Coming of Intelligent Green Vehicles • Science and a New Kind of Prediction: An Interview with Stephen Wolfram

November-December 2012 (Volume 46, No. 6) Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? • In Search of the “Better Angels” of Our Future • Who Will Be Free? The Battles for Human Rights to 2050 • The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers • Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes • On Being Human in a Transhuman Future • Special Report: Outlook 2013