Visions for Our Time
Technology is freeing man from the age-old "��ma,:, . conditi.on." Now, says an essayist and crrt,c, v,s,onary ideas are needed in order for man to realize a desirable future. Social thinkers, he s�ys, must turn from simply criticizing the inequi ties of the present to offering visions of possible and attractive futures. by Richard Kostelanetz
The crucial question confronting us now is not whether we can change the world but what kind of world we want as well �s how to turn our choices into realities; for near!; everythmg even sli�htly credible is becoming possible, in both man and society, once we decide what and why it should be. As metamorphosis defines the character and drift of the _ times, the problem for those desiring a better life, for man�md and . for t�emselves, becomes channeling and moldmg these mcreasmgly rapid forces of change. "All the trend curves we may examine," writes Buckminster Fuller, "show rates of acceleration which underline the unprece dented nature of things to come." As autonomous as most of this change is, only man can impose degrees of direction and value upon history-create a willed, rather than a fated, future. Therefore, as persuasive as most "radical" criticism of prese�t inequity may be, a social thought truly relevant to our time� must turn from negative carping, no matter how perceptive, into offering visions of what can, and ought, to be done. The ineffectuality of what is known today as "radical thought" points up the need for a revolution in ho� we think about fundamental social change, and one stram of speculative thinking contributes to such an in tellectual transformation. Vision Stimulates Transformation: The Case of the Oral Contraceptive If the function of "the intellectual" is supposedly dissent to the visionary mind goes responsibility for generatin� leaps beyond conventional thinking, ideally in an endless procession of imaginative ideas and inspiring blueprints (e.g., R. Buckminster Fuller, John Cage, Paul Goodman, Herman KahnJ. Knowledge is power, the saying goes; and _ a r�sonant vision can become the most powerful stimulus behmd comprehensive transformations. Need one take an example more fundamental than heterosexual relations which have changed drastically in the past decade becaus; certain people once had a vision of an oral contraceptive and set about to realize one (overcoming, needless to say, taboos and obstacles within the scientific community); and not only are the currently decreasing birthrates indebted finally to their vision, but so is the recent revolution in sexual parity and desire. Because women need no longer fear they might become pregnant without their assent, they © 1971 by Richard Kostelanetz 112
can �ake t�emselves more available and inviting in fact and m fashion. Therefore, the radical modern ideal of "sexual freedom" has become more practicable through technology. In short, the metaphor for change draws less upon organic metamorphosis than scientific revolution which is to say a leap ahead from one way of doing thing� to another, rather than a gradual evolution. Furthermore answers to the question of how different the future can o; will be conclusively separate today's conservatives from the genuine revolutionaries. Speculation Provides a Reservoir of Possible Futures s�eculations are, essentially, articulated options, Social _ options which ":�Y be realized by people both inside politics and out; for a vision both comprehensive and detailed helps make human choices more considered and purposeful. As knowledge is power, so foreknowledge can be even greater power; �nd speculations, at their most relevant, propose alternatives that most of us would not be likely to consider o� our own. ·: Roughly," I suggested in Beyond Left and , Rzght (1968), the fundamental processes of social change today start with dreams (whose mother may well be neces sity), for t�e_desire for something impossible is the first step _ toward a vision of its realization." For that reason, generat ing. a feas_ible ".'ision is t�e most essential type of significant soci�l action; because without the envisioned goal, nothing gets mvented and/or change progresses uncontrolled. "The forecasting of invention is not separate from invention itself," writes Donald A. Schon. "The principal step is the conceptual one. When you predict the electric car, you have made the adventure. We are not standing outside the process of change but participating in it." As speculations come in various forms, they can be realized in diverse ways-the need for an invention, the recognition of a new invention's possible uses, a plan for reorganizing one's environment or oneself; ne':" ways to exploit existing materials, and so forth; but an ethic . conducive to innovation assumes that every _ society susceptible to change can respond to vi realm m sionary ideas. Social speculations exist in the collective mind as a reservoir of alternatives that individuals and groups can appropriate to their needs, while a related repertoire in cludes scenarios of likely, but less attractive, futures. For bo�h these reasons, "impracticality" is simply not a valid _ to creating, considering, or remembering a serious obJection social speculation. Technology & Human Desire = Feasibility The most feasible visions match human desire to the current forces encouraging innovation. The greatest of these force�, of course, is technology, which in no previous age has wieldeg such a pervasively determining role. As both the source and the disruptor of progress, its influence THE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971
includes the steadily increasing pace of development and its dissemination wbi h · the number of new machines and grov."in: generating the subtle processes of in en · decreasing lag between an average inven · maturity of general availability and use. � industrial institutions of America, if no are currently committed to continuous in\ distribution, not just as fad replacing fad an actual improvement in the qualit things; and research departments of some o. dustrial endeavors have organized extensi\= of the future. Need one say that even the most e would sense their lives seriously impm·e ·- electric light, the radio, the telephone. the the automobile; and new technologies con·.., more comprehensive command of his e only does the future promise greater weather, but we can also build increasinu mental structures, such as Buckminster F-' geodesic dome over midtown Manhanan. _ also offers the most persuasive solutions universal need for more abundant and h • mass housing. For these reasons, nothinc · pernicious than dialectical historical general human condition need not get worsi better. Despite all of its perceptive criti · malaise, what is most lacking in classic and convincing vision of the future; so thal advocated in the name of a class (and bv tain economic values, rather than ecume� tions. Nonetheless, as clear as the current the details of any particular new concep · remain unclear, subject first to unexpectec and then to the power of human choice.
Machines Free Man From "Human Con · · Man has always been highly adaptable: , pendent upon machines, he has become less� human condition," which is to say he is n reject dimensions of current life and willfu.:. thing else. Technology functions to extend r body and desire, but also man's continuic. his environment. Broadly considered, · : eludes both the development of new machine tion of new techniques, to do old tasks more effectively. Indeed, a true social · multiple an impact upon diverse dimensio� new machine. With the automation of in ture, for instance, comes the disappearance breaking effort, to the particular pleasure o the work (but sometimes the despair of �,.. complain of "dehumanization"). "I don· press these two buttons," a veteran emplo�� gratefully remarked. "Sometimes I use m · times I use my wrists and sometimes I la· across. The only time I sweat on the job is hundred and something outside." Just as tions to the so-called "threats of automa · automation, so the further elimination of some of the more immediately applicable robot to help around the house, automati dividual transport (cars, trucks, etc.), distr THE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971
includes the steadily increasing pace of both technological development and its dissemination, which is to say not only the number of new machines and growing command over generating the subtle processes of invention, but also the decreasing lag between an average invention's birth and its maturity of general availability and use. The enlightened industrial institutions of America, if not the entire world, are currently committed to continuous invention and rapid distribution, not just as fad replacing fad but on behalf of an actual improvement in the quality and usefulness of things; and research departments of some of the wisest in dustrial endeavors have organized extensive considerations of the future. Need one say that even the most ethereal Americans would sense their lives seriously impoverished without the electric light, the radio, the telephone, the television, and the automobile; and new technologies continually offer man more comprehensive command of his environment. Not only does the future promise greater control over the weather, but we can also build increasingly large environ mental structures, such as Buckminster Fuller's proposed geodesic dome over midtown Manhattan, and technology also offers the most persuasive solutions to the current universal need for more abundant and humane inexpensive mass housing. For these reasons, nothing today is more pernicious than dialectical historical thinking, for the general human condition need not get worse before it gets better. Despite all of its perceptive criticism of industrial malaise, what is most lacking in classic Marxism is a rich and convincing vision of the future; so that "revolution" is advocated in the name of a class (and by an elite) and cer tain economic values, rather than ecumenical social specula tions. Nonetheless, as clear as the current major drifts are, the details of any particular new conception are likely to remain unclear, subject first to unexpected developments and then to the power of human choice.
Machines Free Man From "Human Condition" Man has always been highly adaptable; and though de pendent upon machines, he has become less enslaved to "the human condition," which is to say he is now more free to reject dimensions of current life and willfully create some thing else. Technology functions to extend not only human body and desire, but also man's continuing adaptation to his environment. Broadly considered, "technology" in cludes both the development of new machines and the crea tion of new techniques, to do old tasks more quickly and more effectively. Indeed, a true social innovation has as multiple an impact upon diverse dimensions of society as a new machine. With the automation of industrial manufac ture, for instance, comes the disappearance of much back breaking effort, to the particular pleasure of those who do the work (but sometimes the despair of "humanists" who complain of "dehumanization"). "I don't do nothing but press these two buttons," a veteran employee at Ford once gratefully remarked. "Sometimes I use my thumbs, some times I use my wrists and sometimes I lay my whole arm across. The only time I sweat on the job is when the sun is a hundred and something outside." Just as the major solu tions to the so-called "threats of automation" lie in more automation, so the further elimination of labor informs some of the more immediately applicable speculations-a robot to help around the house, automatic guidance of in dividual transport (cars, trucks, etc.), distribution of mesTHE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971
sages by facsimile printing, etc.-as well as the next set of speculations, which deal with what people could do with their increased leisure. With technological advances comes not the abolition of labor-something always needs to be done-but the possible abolition of laborious work. Technology Globalizes Human Experience Major social transformations of all kinds can be traced directly to the impact of technology; and no matter who makes or markets the machines, intrinsic in their autono mous development and dissemination are certain ecumeni cal and egalitarian social biases. "Growing exponentially, Western technology has now led to the globalizing of human experience and the smashing of the physical barriers between peoples," writes the historian Lynn White, Jr. "This is the prerequisite to breaking through the other barriers between them. Whatever the incidental problems, it is a prime spiritual achievement." For one thing, a child coming of age today possesses sensory receptors so extended that he is instantaneously "tuned in" to the entire world, since events in one place, as seen on the- television screen, feel as close as those in any other-Prague is as immediate as Chicago, language differences notwithstanding-and as millions of minds receive the same message simultaneously via the media, they undergo a common, indubitably ecu menical experience. This unprecedented psychological situation, indebted largely to the communications machines, puts a new shape upon the maturing political sensibility of the young. Technology Becomes Second "Nature" The unprecedented truth is that technology, rather than competing with nature, has become a second nature, so to speak-a complementary environmental system-whose impact upon the maturing individual is now as decisive as is primary nature; and this new reality is continually re defining man's relationship to his planet. "An important result of more travel is the rapid and wide-spread exchange of cultural, economic, political and technological ideas," writes James R. Bright. "No longer is geography (or sheer distance) such a critical barrier, hindrance, or help to war or trade." And Buckminster Fuller's own experience of the earth's geography inspires this radical remark: "I travel between Southern and Northern hemispheres and around the world so frequently that I no longer have any so-called normal winter and summer, or normal night and day." Speculation Can Help Decide How to Use Inventions Among the prime purposes of speculative thinking should be, as noted before, the consideration of what to do with new and probable inventions; for truly relevant social think ing must assimilate as well as inspire technological change. So much of the lag between recent major inventions and their transfer to general use-think of the transistor (origi nally invented back in 1948) or scotch tape (invented merely to repair paper)-can be blamed upon sheer lethargy in imagining possible applications. The present demands richly detailed and conceptually feasible speculations-conceived with a leap beyond the obvious-of what can be done with computers, transportation vehicles, microcircuits, atomic energy, chemotherapy, preventive medicines, and so forth; for without such intellectual effort and the resultant dis coveries, technological potentials will remain invisible and wasted. In fact, the availability of a certain innovative 113
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machine creates new needs and opportunities; so that the mere existence of the computer, for instance, has already increased drastically the sheer number of computations made in society. A related objective is the technological exploitation of unused natural resources, particularly the oceans,which are abundant in both food and materials, or the energy of the sun.
Social Speculations
Richard Kostelanetz's article was written as an introduc tion to Social Speculations, his new anthology of future oriented writings.The volume brings together a variety of short articles dealing with the future (including several articles from The Futurist). Included are: I. History "Our Spaceship Earth" by R. Buckminster Fuller "Summing Up" by Nigel Calder "Our World in Revolution" by Oliver L. Reiser "The Next I 00 Years" by Isaac Asimov "Toward the Year 2000" by Karl W. Deutsch "Alternative Future Worlds" by Herman Kahn "Elements of Global Morphology" by Dane Rudhyar "Life in A.D. 2500" by Burnham Putnam Beckwith "Artificial Intelligence and Galactic Civilizations" by LS. Shklovskii and Carl Sagan II. Technologies "Society of the Scientific Breakthrough" by Theodore J. Gordon "The Future of Automation" by Hasan Ozbekhan "The Banishment of Paperwork" by Arthur L. Samuel "Designing the Materials We Need" by Robert Allen Smith "Communications" by John R. Pierce "Cheap Communications" by J. L. Hult "Transport" by Gabriel Bouladon "Airport Planning" by J. Block "Televistas: Looking Ahead Through Side Windows" by J. C. R. Licklider "Artificial Thinking Automata'' by Roger A. MacGowan and Frederick I. Ordway, III "The Solar System and the Future" by Isaac Asimov III. Environments "Man and Nature and Man" by Anthony J. Wiener "Material Resources for the Nutrition of Mankind" by Fritz Baade "Fresh Water" by Burnham Putnam Beckwith "The World Weather Satellite System" by S. Fred Singer "Housing Is a Process" by John P. Eberhard "Drop City: A Total Living Environment" by Albin Wagner "The University College System" by Don Benson "The Ultimate Human Society" by Dandridge M. Cole IV. Cities "Multiple Choices" by Martin and Margy Meyerson "A Comprehensive Plan for Stabilization" by Kenneth B. Clark "The Experimental City" by Athelstan Spilhaus "Why Not Roofs Over Our Cities?" by Buckminster Fuller "The Los Pageantry of Nature" by Gyorgy Kepes "Buckminster Fuller's Floating City" by Shoji Sadao "Sea City" by Geoffrey A. Jellicoe, et al. (Social Speculations: Visions for Our Time. Edited with an Introduction by Richard Kostelanetz. William Morrow, New York, 1971. 307 pages. $7.50. Available from the World Future Society's Book Service. Comment: "This is a very readable anthology, and presents a broad picture of the emerging field of futuristics. The book provides an excellent introduction to the more imaginative writings.") Kostelanetz's earlier anthology, Beyond Left and Right: Radical Thought for Our Times, is also available from the book service in paperback for $2.95.
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Speculation Faces "Morally Ambiguous" Technologies The negative side of the same process requires the con tinual gauging of possible secondary reactions to primary developments. As Fred Warshofsky notes,no one "in 1903, could have foreseen that in America the automobile would kill fifty thousand people a year, that it would affect our foreign policy vis-a-vis the Middle Eastern oil producers, that it would change our sexual mores, ...or that it would pollute the air in almost every city in America." Speculative thought must also deal with the truly knotty issues of morally ambiguous technologies,such as the likelihood of nonlethal but devastating weapons, more comprehensive spying and record-keeping,and electrical and chemical self-stimulation to satisfy one's emotional needs -one pill there for energy, one shock here for sexual pleasure,etc.-for these questions ultimately cannot be evaded. (The most facile palliative, if not the great liberal evasion, is establishing a commission of establishmentarians to report on the problem.) For better and worse,America is the prototype of advanced industrial civilizations; and so it is here that such issues must be con fronted now.
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One of the major achievements intrinsic in technological advance is the doing of more with less (and sometimes much much less)-ephemeralization is Fuller's word for this pro cess.Just as computers today are several times smaller than their less powerful predecessors, and new materials like polymers offer greater strength in smaller volume,so within the economy this principle means more money, goods, and goodies for less effort, making abundance of several kinds increasingly pervasive in advanced economies.Not only has technological advance given people in general more wealth than before and more genuine energy at their personal com mand-and there are more truly wealthy people-but,as in America, our standards of "poverty" have risen to such unprecedented heights that more than three-quarters of the remaining world could be classified as poor. The problem for social institutions-corporations as well as govern ments-is then how best to increase this surplus and re distribute it more equitably to the needy and disadvantaged; and from this should follow not only consideration of direct subsidies to the poor (solely because they are poor,not just because they are Negroes, aged, or students) as well as a substantial Guaranteed Annual Wage and,beyond that,the possible abolition of "money" as a medium of economic exchange.After all,the young find lucre so much less lucra tive than their elders that this old medium of work-incentive is losing its social efficiency. Affluence also makes obsolete those economic ideas that regard people as competing for a fixed amount of cake,because the current moment requires visions of how best to recirculate the increasingly bur geoning frosting. Speed of Change Increases Generation Gap The swifter pace of historical change reveals the tem porariness of most current artifacts, aspirations, and be havior patterns, in addition to producing visibly growing gaps between the generations; for since most people carry into old age those attitudes and values they gained while young, the general differences in sensibility displayed by people born and growing up only a generation apart be come increasingly more noticeable. "Today," a Yugoslav economist recently observed of a discrepancy with parallels (Continued on page 118)
THE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971 ·, -
for the future; and make recommendations -or adoption or adaption of dairy policies programs to best accommodate to the .:-ojected economic environment, so as to �ve!op the best possible market for sale milk and milk products. '"'1iry farmers and their organizations have . �o conditions set by other forces and inomy and in the environment. -.-.:. however, we are determined, by fore--- new. innovative, practical ways to adapt ·ons. to resolve problems, to exploit new o meet new challenges. To the degree _\·oid being pawns of fate tossed about in f our times. Rather, we will be working our talents and resources to establish our o determine our own destiny.
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_ is Secretary, National Milk Producers Fed �. W .. Washington, D.C. 20001.)
rea.s. Tipton told THE FUTURIST. In milkman might be able to deliver to five :itop: now he often must make a separate ery customer. ·geration has enabled housewives to keep ·oos. and thus milkmen have been able to to each customer, and thus reduce the • ?<!r week. But this positive economic factor ,:::;cient to offset the other trends that are an out to pasture, along with his horse. D.C.
� Foundation is at 910 Seventeenth St. N.W.,
.. ced of nations is likely to occur every orld-whether the pervasive use of tele rized radios, or the popularity of motion t ;nusic. Thus it is important that enlightened � exemplary machines, blue prints, and arts -"'Xport: for what is created here is liable to � we like it or not-astronauts and movie ls of universalized faith, etc., although remain distinctly individual. Moreover, interdependence among countries today; tion or policy-change in a major power is e-percussions around the world. Particularly exfore. social thought requires a broader �eats all significant problems in terms of L encompassing all nations, races and sexes; anything less than the consideration of all serves to perpetuate archaic divisions in : is indebted to new ideas, not only as they .:a.ines but also as they inspire new tech ,e new ideas and technologies are also chang e traditional processes of education, cr minds more predisposed to visionary ledge is power," writes Walter J. Ong, THE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971
"then knowledge of how to generate knowledge is power over power." Not only the more extensive and extended education of the young, but the more frequent reeducation of the old (many of whom were once "well educated") creates the need for more open-ended conceptions of learn ing. As an increasingly greater percentage of a country's population is involved in either teaching or learning-in the United States the rate is rising f rom one-fourth to one third-education becomes a culture's most serious business. Indeed, the unending generation of new knowledge inspires the ideal of continuous learning, both in schools and out; and the modern principle of more-for-less allows more free time for continuing education. As a result, one could pursue a succession of careers, each field perhaps requiring an ex tended period of education; and thanks also to all the edu cation channeled through the communications media, some advanced nations are fulfilling the old ideal of a universally somewhat-knowledgeable society. (And another possibility, indebted to educational television, is the abolition of need lessly expensive schoolhouses.) Moreover, in response to the times, much "new" education successfully speeds up the comprehension of old materials, such as mathematics and language, as well as incorporating a concern with dimen sions of experience not considered before, such as physio logical perception, ecology (the reciprocal relation of di verse forms of life) and the possibilities of super-human intelligence and physical performance. Beyond that is new truth-that making visible the previously invisible is among the primary means of determining what is most truly impor tant, and most demanding of change. Schools Should Encourage Visions Furthermore, the development of information technology accelerates the evolution of thinking itself, in addition to demanding not the teaching of data but instead, the intel lectual means of organizing and retrieving needed informa tion. "Interdisciplinary" education, for instance, serves both to inculcate a variety of intellectual structures and to encourage that kind of comprehensive overview character istic of visions; and educational authorities at all levels should sponsor procedures and incentives designed to "free" the learning mind of constricting habit and cliche. Beyond that, as Robert Theobald notes, "It is the task of education to make the impossible appear relevant," for the major deficiencies in current social thinking are less philo sophical than imaginative. That general lack of relevance mentioned before can be blamed less upon a lack of rigor or knowledge than upon a fundamental paucity of both visions and conceptual structure; for truly successful planning, as well as "systemic" and "synergistic" thinking, depends upon the most adequate forecasting possible. The hard fact is that without minds to take the requisite leaps, there will be fewer of the necessary changes; and without the appro priate education of imaginative capacities, there will be no visionary minds. Major Historical Changes Occur Outside Official "Politics": Whoever Voted for the Telephone? The major historical changes of recent years are largely indebted to developments occurring outside official "poli tics"-new technologies, affluence, population increase, generational change, social fashions, etc. Politics instead deals with what governments should do, or what who should do with governments; and for this reason, politics has nothing to do with initiating or popularizing the teleTHE FUTURIST, JUNE 1971
phone, television, the automobile, the airplane, the birth control pill. Not only have governments had little actual impact upon the resulting social changes, but many of them have yet to acknowledge the new realities shaped by many of these technologies. "While governments exercised their traditional prerogatives," writes John Brockman, "the pro cess continued unnoticed. Whoever voted for the tele phone?" Nor did or could legislators initiate automation, invention, abundance, social speculations, or so much else important to recent beneficence, for even the most en lightened politics functions in today's world not to foster change but merely to keep the laws abreast of history, de cide who holds public office and, inevitably, put the brakes on social development. Current Problems Demand Thinking that Transcends Ex perience The politician, as well as the lawyer, tends to approach new issues with the tools of precedent; but current prob lems, if not the times, demand thinking .that transcends previous experience. "Paradoxical as it sounds," notes Herman Kahn, "reality has left experience far behind; and central as 'common sense' is, it is not enough." No national administration in the world today, not even Pierre Trudeau's, can be regarded as instinctively innovative; and neither is any major local administration particularly more progres sive. The tragic modern truth is that even the "best" govern ment can never contribute much to, as Lynn White puts it, "the slow progress of unshackling us from our past," and the politicians themselves are almost without exception, too deferential to the conventional discussion to espouse truly visionary programs. (When once I showed a sketch of Fuller's Manhattan dome to the research director of a New York City Congressional campaign, she curtly replied, "It won't go with either [the candidate] or the voters.") Society Needs "Engineering" For those who would truly want to transform the world, politics offers a trap less concerned with genuine leadership than with standing on the stage and supervising a cumber some bureaucracy; so that a visionary disappointed by the conservatism of politics, no matter what his rationaliza tions, is really too innocent to realize his prophetic mission. "Being by design a protective institution," writes Peter F. Drucker, "[government] is not good at innovation. It cannot really abandon anything." And so it is that many extant governmental agencies were founded to cope with prob lems long gone, such as agricultural underproduction; for the bureaucratic machinery and its occupants did not dis appear with the death of the problem. (In fact, business is generally more successful than government at the contem porary necessity of phasing out what is no longer relevant.) Were a speculative innovator to run for political office, his real success would come not from victory (which would probably be detrimental to his well-being), but from pub licizing his ideas before audiences not otherwise open to him. This kind of strategy also demonstrates that persuasive speculations are ultimately more powerful than conven tional politics; and translating new ideas into realities, at all levels of life, is the most crucial and genuine "management" of our time. The demand is for that kind of thinking and procedures called "engineering," now applied to non mechanical problems; and in principle nothing need be con sidered exempt from change. 119