2.2 Demographic Trends & Implications

This demographic analysis provides an understanding of Fresno’s population. This analysis is broken down by Development Areas as defi ned by the City’s General Plan and is refl ective of the total population, and its key characteristics such as population density, age distribution, households, gender, ethnicity, and household income. It is important to note that future projections are based on historical patterns. Unforeseen circumstances during or after the time of the projections could have a signifi cant bearing on the validity of the fi nal projections.

METHODOLOGY

Demographic data used for the analysis was obtained from U.S. Census Bureau and from Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI), the largest research and development organization dedicated to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and specializing in population projections and market trends. The geographic boundaries for the Development Areas within Fresno were drawn from the boundaries shown in the Residential Capacity map in the Fresno General Plan.

RACE AND ETHNICITY DEFINITIONS

The minimum categories for data on race and ethnicity for Federal statistics, program administrative reporting, and civil rights compliance reporting are defi ned as below. The latest (Census 2010) defi nitions and nomenclature are used within this analysis.

• American Indian: This includes a person having origins in any of the original peoples of North and South America (including Central

America), and who maintains tribal affi liation or community attachment

• Asian: This includes a person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia,

Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and Vietnam

• Black: This includes a person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa

• Native Hawaiian or Other Pacifi c Islander: This includes a person having origins in any of the original peoples of Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, or other Pacifi c Islands

• White: This includes a person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa

• Hispanic or Latino: This is an ethnic distinction, a subset of a race as defi ned by the Federal Government; this includes a person of Mexican,

Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race

The City of Fresno is a melting pot and is racially and ethnically diverse in each development area of the community. It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide programming and services that can be defi ned by cultural preference and also continually seek to identify emerging activities and sports

BRT CORRIDOR

POPULATION

The population is increasing through infi ll development and is projected to experience a 52.1% growth in population over the next 18 years, which is approximately 3 times that of the US annual growth average of 1% (or 18% over 18 years). With population growing at a fast rate (primarily through infi ll development), but land for park development scarce, investments in park and recreation services must be strategic. AGE SEGMENTATION

The BRT Corridor has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34, the second largest group being 0-12 and third largest being 55+. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels well below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-1 NORTH

POPULATION

The population is signifi cantly increasing and is projected to experience 83.1% population growth over the next 18 years. With population signifi cantly growing, investments in park and recreation services in DA-1 North must be strategic, aggressive and forwardthinking. AGE SEGMENTATION

The DA-1 North has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34, the second largest group being 35-54 and third largest being 0-12. Additionally, 20% of the population in DA-1 North will be 55+ by 2035. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on a multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-1 SOUTH

POPULATION

The population is increasing through infi ll development and is projected to experience a 133.6% population growth over the next 18 years. With population signifi cantly growing, investments in park and recreation services in DA-1 North must be strategic, aggressive and forward-thinking. AGE SEGMENTATION

DA-1 South has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34, the second largest group being 35-54 and third largest being 0-12. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels well below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-2 NORTH

POPULATION

The population in DA-2 North is sparse as only 4,379 people are projected to be living in the development area by 2035. With population being low in DA-2 South, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/ facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs to the residents of this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

DA-2 North has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 35-54, the second largest group being 18-34 and third largest being 0-12. This is signifi cant as providing access to services and programs will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low and average cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-2 SOUTH

POPULATION

The population in DA-2 South is sparse as only 3,449 people are projected to be living in the development area by 2035. With population being low in DA-2 South, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/ facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs to the residents of this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

DA-2 South has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 35-54, the second largest group being 0-12 and third largest being 18-34. This is signifi cant as providing access to services and programs will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low and average cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-3

POPULATION

The population in DA-3 is sparse as only 10,353 people are projected to be living in the development area by 2035. With population being low in DA-3, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs to the residents of this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

DA-3 has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34 the second largest group being 35-54 and third largest being 0-12. This is signifi cant as providing access to services and programs will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-4 EAST

POPULATION

The population in DA-4 East is sparse as only 15,355 people are projected to be living in the development area by 2035. With population being low in DA-4 East, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/ facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs of the residents in this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

DA-4 East has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 55+ with the second largest group being 35-54. This is signifi cant as providing access to services and programs will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low and average cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DA-4 WEST

POPULATION

The population is not expected to grow over the next 18 years in DA-4 West and only 8,308 people will be living in the development area in 2035. With population being low in DA-4 West, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs to the residents of this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

The DA-4 West has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34, the second largest group being 35-54 and third largest being 0-12. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels well below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

DOWNTOWN

POPULATION

The population is increasing through infi ll development and is projected to experience a 22.1% growth in population over the next 18 years, which is slightly above the US annual growth average of 1% (or 18% over 18 years). With population growing at an above average rate (primarily through infi ll development), but land for park development scarce, investments in park and recreation services must be strategic. AGE SEGMENTATION

The Downtown has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34, the second largest group being 0-12 and third largest being 35-54. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels well below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

EXISTING NEIGHBORHOODS NORTH OF SHAW

POPULATION

The population is increasing and is projected to experience a 7% population growth over the next 18 years. With a slightly increasing population in a highly populated development area, investments in park and recreation services in Existing Neighborhoods North of Shaw must be strategic. AGE SEGMENTATION

The Existing Neighborhoods North of Shaw has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 55+. Additionally, 31% of the population in Existing Neighborhoods North of Shaw will be 55+ by 2031. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on a multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels above the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on services at market rates with exceptional customer service.

EXISTING NEIGHBORHOODS SOUTH OF SHAW

POPULATION

The population is increasing and is projected to experience a 6% population growth over the next 18 years. With a slowly increasing population in a highly populated development area, investments in park and recreation services in Existing Neighborhoods South of Shaw must be strategic, aggressive and forward-thinking. AGE SEGMENTATION

The Existing Neighborhoods South of Shaw has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 18-34. Additionally, 21% of the population in Existing Neighborhoods South of Shaw will be 55+ by 2031. This is signifi cant because programs and facilities will need to be focused on a multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. For example, children (0-12) may enjoy active, skill development based recreation activities while adults (65+) are more likely to enjoy more passive recreation activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

With median household and per capita income levels well below the state and national averages, it will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.

SOUTH INDUSTRIAL

POPULATION

The population in South Industrial is sparse as only 997 people are projected to be living in the development area by 2035. With population being low in South Industrial, it is likely that PARCS should focus its land acquisition and park/facility development resources in other parts of the community while strategizing how best to deliver and/or provide access to a very specifi c set of programs and services to meet the needs to the residents of this development area. AGE SEGMENTATION

South Industrial has a very broad age segmentation with the largest group being 55+ with the second largest group being 18-34. This is signifi cant as providing access to services and programs will need to be focused on multitude of age segments simultaneously and equally challenging as age segments have different likings towards activities. HOUSEHOLDS AND INCOME

It will be important for the PARCS Department to provide offerings that focus on low cost services with exceptional customer service. It will also benefi t the system to look into different funding and revenue strategies to help the department cover costs of these services.