APRIL 2021 W W W . R D W O R L D O N L I N E . CO M
2021 GLOBAL R&D
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THE 2021 R&D 100 AWARDS What is the R&D 100 awards program? Established in 1962, the R&D 100 Awards is the only S&T (science and technology) awards competition that recognizes new commercial products, technologies and materials for their technological significance that are available for sale or license. There are six categories in the R&D 100, listed below. There are also five special recognition categories, which follow. A given innovation can be entered in both a regular category and any of the special recognition categories — but please note that a separate entry fee is required for each nomination. Special recognition categories are awarded separately from the 100 winners that comprise the R&D 100. In addition, the judging panel will award finalist designations to selected top nominations. This announcement of finalists is made first, followed by the actual R&D 100 winners several weeks later. This allows all finalists and winners plenty of time to make arrangements to attend the awards banquet and/or conference.
SUBMIT YOUR ENTRY Deadline for submissions May 7, 2021 Late deadline for submissions June 21, 2021 To be eligible for R&D 100 Awards consideration, your product or service must have been made available to the marketplace between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021.
NEW1!
2 FOR 2 0
NEW Special Recognition Category: Battling COVID-19 This award is designed to highlight any innovation that was employed to battle the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic.
Categories include: Analytical/Test
• IT/Electrical • Mechanical/Materials • Process/Prototyping • Software/Services • Other
Special Recognitions: Corporate Social Responsibility
• Green Tech • Market Disruptor – Products • Market Disruptor – Service • Battling COVID-19
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR TO SUBMIT YOUR ENTRY, GO TO:
WWW.RD100CONFERENCE.COM/SUBMISSIONS-FOR-2021
INSIDE APRIL 2021 • vol 2 no 1 • RDWORLDONLINE.COM
From the Editor ..............................................4 Global Funding Forecast Pandemic disrupts flow of global R&D .........6 COVID-19 and U.S. R&D ............................... 12 Federal R&D stabilizes R&D overall ............ 18 Pandemic creates convoluted academic R&D enterprise .......................... 20 R&D after the pandemic..............................24 GFF resources ..............................................28
CO N N E C T W I T H U S !
Outside perspectives .................................. 30 Product world ...............................................32 Ad index ....................................................... 36
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FROM THE EDITOR
Innovation in your car — or while walking the dog For almost six decades, the R&D 100 Awards have celebrated innovation across multiple industries, promoting new technologies that we feel are changing the world in a positive way. I’ve been involved in running the program for two years now — meaning everything from answering questions on the submission process to finding qualified judges to putting together the PowerPoint for the awards celebration. Honestly, it’s a huge volume of work, but it’s a labor of love for me, and I’m honored to be responsible for this venerable program. In talking with the scientists and engineers who have been honored with R&D 100 Awards, as well as reading so many of the applications, it struck me how many of these innovations had interesting genesis stories. Additionally, many of them tackled innovation by using multidisciplinary teams, comprised of people who had vastly different areas of expertise and often did not speak the same tech language at the start. To help delve into these sorts of stories and ask more about how innovation truly happens in today’s world, we decided to start R&D 100 – The Podcast. I’m joined each episode by the dynamic and engaging Aimee Kalnoskas, our Senior Editor who also is my on-stage presentation partner for the in-person R&D 100 Awards Banquet. In each episode, which generally range from 30-40 minutes, we examine one past R&D 100 winner, interview some of the principal investigators, and see what we can learn about the innovation process. As of this writing, we’re just wrapping up our fifth episode of the podcast, and we’re very pleased with the support and kind feedback we’ve received from the R&D community. I’d love to add you as one of our listeners, so we’ve tried to make it easy for you to find. You can visit the R&D World homepage, at rdworldonline.com, and find all the episodes under the Resources menu-bar item at the top, under Podcasts. Or visit Soundcloud, Apple Podcasts or wherever you normally find your podcasts and search for “R&D 100.” If you’re a past R&D 100 winner and you think that your innovation story is an interesting one, I’d love to hear more, so we can consider it for a future podcast episode. Feel free to reach out at the email address below. And please share the word with your colleagues about the podcast series. Lastly, speaking of the R&D 100 Awards, the 2021 nomination process is in full swing, with a deadline for nominations of May 7. Full details are on the website, or you can always follow @RD100Awards on Twitter for the latest updates. &
Paul J. Heney | VP, Editorial Director pheney@wtwhmedia.com On Twitter @wtwh_paulheney
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PANDEMIC DISRUPTS FLOW OF GLOBAL R&D For 62 years, R&D World and its predecessors have published an annual R&D funding forecast. These reports predict the combined dollar amount of R&D investments expected by industry, government and academia for the upcoming calendar year. Over those years, the publications these reports have appeared in have changed their ownership and names several times. The first forecast was published in the inaugural issue of
Industrial Research in January 1959. For the next forty years, these reports had a U.S.-only focus due to the U.S.’s dominance in this arena. A growing
TOP 10 R&D SPENDING COUNTRIES FOR 2021
international R&D presence then resulted
2020 Estimated
in these reports covering all global R&D activities beginning with the Sept. 2005 issue
GDP
R&D
GERD
GDP
R&D
GERD
of R&D Magazine. The initial Jan. 1959 report
PPP
as % GDP
PPP
PPP
as % GDP
PPP
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
discussed how $12 billion would be spent
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Top 10
Country
1
China
29,010.7
1.98%
574.40
31,389.6
1.98%
621.50
2
United States
20,145.1
2.88%
580.20
20,789.7
2.88%
598.70
how more than $2.4 trillion will be invested in
3
Japan
5,174.2
3.50%
181.10
5,210.4
3.50%
182.36
2021 in R&D industries, government labs and
4
Germany
4,283.5
2.84%
121.65
4,480.5
2.84%
127.25
5
India
9,991.1
0.86%
85.92
10,870.3
0.86%
93.48
6
South Korea
2,002.6
4.35%
87.11
2,102.7
4.35%
91.47
7
France
2,864.7
2.25%
64.46
2,979.3
2.25%
67.03
8
Russia
3,927.7
1.50%
58.92
4,037.7
1.50%
60.57
9
United Kingdom
2,876.7
1.73%
49.77
2,983.1
1.73%
51.61
10
Brazil
3,199.3
1.16%
37.11
3,288.9
1.16%
38.15
on R&D in U.S. industry, government and academia. In this, our 62nd iteration of that continuing report, R&D World editors discuss
academic research centers across more than 115 countries. Over the past six decades, R&D investments have declined several times because of economic variations and cycles. Often when industrial investments declined year-overyear, government R&D investments rose to such a degree that total R&D changed
6
2021 Forecast
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
R&D Spending Summary negligibly (and vice versa when industrial spending declined). This made for slow and steady increases over much of this period. During the Great Recession of 2009, global industrial and government R&D spending both dropped substantially. To offset this mostly rare economic event, the U.S. federal government passed emergency legislation under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which pumped more than $18 billion into R&D budgets (much of it spread out over several years). Similar recovery packages were passed in other countries during the same period. Over the past year, the world economies have struggled with the effects of the COVID-19-based pandemic. Workers are quarantined, research materials and supplies are delayed, transportation systems have been crippled, production lines are slowed and interpersonal relations have been severely modified. The whole character of work (conventional and researchbased alike) has seen dramatic operational changes. Rapid, globally-based vaccine research programs began in early 2020 with approved vaccines becoming available in mid-December. With these unprecedented research programs, a substantial number of inoculations will take place by June 2021 for possibly as much as 50% of the U.S. population.
2019
how covid changed R&D forecasts 2019 forecast
2020 forecast before COVID
Updated 2020 forecast
2020 actual result
2021 forecast
Forecast date
1/1/19
1/1/20
7/15/20
1/1/21
1/1/21
Global GDP
$137.8
$141.7
$132.5
$133.6
$140.5
Global GERD
$2.37
$2.43
$2.28
$2.32
$2.44
• •
GERD – Gross expenditures on research and development, trillions of U.S. dollars GDP – Gross domestic, trillions of U.S. dollars
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2021
GDP
R&D
GDP
R&D
GDP
R&D
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
All Countries
137,773.6
2,370.8
133,628.8
2,325.2
140,484.0
2,440.5
Top Ten
84,730.4
1,857.5
83,475.6
1,840.6
88,132.2
1,932.1
North America
26,259.1
644.5
25,011.7
624.9
25,853.0
645.4
U.S.
21,006.4
596.6
20,145.1
580.2
20,789.7
598.7
6,831.7
51.8
6,247.7
48.1
6,449.3
49.6
Europe
26,442.0
487.5
24,797.4
457.3
25,963.0
479.3
Africa
4,865.2
20.6
4,617.7
19.5
4,765.9
20.2
Middle East
7,599.2
56.3
7,214.6
53.5
7,418.2
55.7
Russia / CIS
5,171.3
64.5
4,982.2
61.9
5,128.8
63.6
Asia
60,291.7
1,041.1
60,643.2
1,055.8
64,600.0
1,122.4
China
26,909.1
532.8
29,010.7
574.4
31,389.6
621.5
South America
R&D shares 2019
Pandemic-effecting changes Last year’s 2020 Global R&D Funding Forecast was completed a couple of months before the COVID-19 pandemic became globally pervasive. When the pandemic spread throughout the world in the spring of 2020, and quarantines hit every aspect of global societies, R&D World editors updated the 2020 R&D Funding Forecast, which was published in August 2020. Details are as follows:
2020
2020
2021
GDP
R&D
GDP
R&D
GDP
R&D
137,773.6
2,370.8
133,628.8
2,325.2
140,484.0
2,440.5
Top Ten
61.5%
78.3%
62.5%
79.2%
62.7%
79.2%
North America
19.1%
27.2%
18.7%
26.9%
18.2%
26.4%
U.S.
15.2%
25.2%
15.1%
25.0%
14.8%
24.5%
South America
5.0%
2.2%
4.7%
2.1%
4.6%
2.0%
Europe
19.2%
20.6%
18.6%
19.7%
18.5%
19.6%
Africa
3.5%
0.9%
3.5%
0.8%
3.4%
0.8%
Middle East
5.5%
2.4%
5.4%
2.3%
5.3%
2.3%
Russia / CIS
3.8%
2.7%
3.7%
2.7%
3.7%
2.6%
Asia
43.8%
43.9%
45.4%
45.4%
46.0%
46.0%
China
19.5%
22.5%
21.7%
24.7%
22.3%
25.5%
All Countries
Source: NSF, 2018
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
7
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forecast Gross Expenditures on R&D 2019 Actual GERD
GDP
R&D
GERD
GDP
R&D
PPP
as % GDP
PPP
PPP
as % GDP
PPP
PPP
as % GDP
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
Bil, US$
GERD PPP Bil, US$
1
China
26,909.1
1.98%
532.80
29,010.7
1.98%
574.40
31,389.6
1.98%
621.50
2
United States
21,006.4
2.84%
596.58
20,145.1
2.88%
580.20
20,789.7
2.88%
598.70
3
Japan
5,447.2
3.50%
190.65
5,174.2
3.50%
181.10
5,210.4
3.50%
182.36
4
Germany
4,518.5
2.84%
128.32
4,283.5
2.84%
121.65
4,480.5
2.84%
127.25
5
India
11,138.4
0.86%
95.79
9,991.1
0.86%
85.92
10,870.3
0.86%
93.48
6
South Korea
2,075.1
4.35%
90.27
2,002.6
4.35%
87.11
2,102.7
4.35%
91.47
7
France
3,070.4
2.25%
69.08
2,864.7
2.25%
64.46
2,979.3
2.25%
67.03
8
Russia
4,095.6
1.50%
61.43
3,927.7
1.50%
58.92
4,037.7
1.50%
60.57
9
United Kingdom
3,073.4
1.73%
53.17
2,876.7
1.73%
49.77
2,983.1
1.73%
51.61
10
Brazil
3,396.3
1.16%
39.40
3,199.3
1.16%
37.11
3,288.9
1.16%
38.15
11
Canada
1,811.5
1.80%
32.61
1,704.6
1.80%
30.68
1,788.1
1.80%
32.19
12
Taiwan
1,244.4
2.46%
30.61
1,228.2
2.46%
30.21
1,289.6
2.46%
31.72
13
Australia
1,311.9
2.35%
30.83
1,238.4
2.35%
29.10
1,302.8
2.35%
30.62
14
Italy
2,493.4
1.26%
31.42
2,293.9
1.26%
28.90
2,371.9
1.26%
29.89
15
Spain
1,893.0
1.25%
23.66
1,688.6
1.25%
21.11
1,800.0
1.25%
22.50
16
Netherlands
17
Turkey
988.1
2.10%
20.75
932.8
2.10%
19.59
985.0
2.10%
20.68
2,300.6
0.89%
20.48
2,185.6
0.89%
19.45
2,294.9
0.89%
20.42 17.65
18
Sweden
541.7
3.28%
17.77
511.9
3.28%
16.79
538.2
3.28%
19
Switzerland
584.5
2.97%
17.36
554.1
2.97%
16.46
584.4
2.97%
17.36
20
Singapore
574.4
2.64%
15.16
552.0
2.64%
14.57
570.2
2.64%
15.05
21
Israel
364.8
4.04%
14.74
336.7
4.04%
13.60
362.0
4.04%
14.62
22
Austria
499.0
2.98%
14.87
478.0
2.98%
14.24
490.0
2.98%
14.60
23
Malaysia
1,044.4
1.29%
13.47
981.7
1.29%
12.66
1,058.3
1.29%
13.65
24
Belgium
582.2
2.35%
13.68
538.5
2.35%
12.65
568.7
2.35%
13.36
25
Mexico
2,519.7
0.51%
12.85
2,292.9
0.51%
11.69
2,373.2
0.51%
12.10
26
Indonesia
3,669.5
0.31%
11.38
3,614.5
0.31%
11.20
3,835.0
0.31%
11.89
27
Poland
1,238.0
0.92%
11.39
1,193.4
0.92%
10.98
1,248.3
0.92%
11.48
28
Iran
1,460.3
0.76%
11.10
1,387.3
0.76%
10.54
1,431.7
0.76%
10.88
29
Denmark
324.9
3.00%
9.75
312.9
3.00%
9.39
322.0
3.00%
9.66
30
Finland
267.7
3.50%
9.37
258.1
3.50%
9.03
269.7
3.50%
9.44 8.79
31
Qatar
359.2
2.50%
8.98
343.0
2.50%
8.58
351.6
2.50%
32
Saudi Arabia
1,861.2
0.48%
8.93
1,760.7
0.48%
8.45
1,815.3
0.48%
8.71
33
Egypt
1,286.6
0.59%
7.59
1,331.6
0.59%
7.86
1,368.9
0.59%
8.08
34
Czechia
432.8
1.85%
8.01
406.8
1.85%
7.53
432.4
1.85%
8.00
35
Pakistan
1,215.3
0.62%
7.54
1,210.4
0.62%
7.50
1,222.5
0.62%
7.58
36
Ireland
421.2
1.75%
7.37
392.6
1.75%
6.87
430.3
1.75%
7.53
37
South Africa
798.9
0.88%
7.03
735.0
0.88%
6.47
757.1
0.88%
6.66
38
Norway
355.2
1.74%
6.18
340.6
1.74%
5.93
359.3
1.74%
6.25
39
Bangladesh
748.6
0.70%
5.24
777.0
0.70%
5.44
811.2
0.70%
5.68
40
Portugal
346.2
1.40%
4.85
313.7
1.40%
4.39
338.5
1.40%
4.74
118,269.6
1.94%
2292.46
115,371.1
1.95%
2252.50
121,503.3
1.95%
2363.90
Rest of World
19,504.0
0.40%
78.43
18,257.7
0.40%
72.68
18,980.7
0.40%
76.60
Total All Countries
137,773.6
1.72%
2,370.89
133,628.8
1.74%
2,325.18
140,484.0
1.74%
2,440.50
Top 40
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
2021 Estimated
R&D
Bil, US$
8
2020 Estimated
GDP
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
World of R&D 2021 Finland
North America Asia
Denmark
Europe
Singapore
Each country’s ball size (diameter) is volume-normalized to China’s total R&D spending.
RESEARCHERS PER MILLION
Middle East/Africa South America
Norway
Sweden United States
Canada
Australia Taiwan United Kingdom France Belgium
Spain
Russia Ireland
South Korea Japan
Austria Germany Switzerland
Netherlands
Czechia Italy Poland Mexico
Iran
Egypt Indonesia
Turkey
China
Brazil
Bangladesh
Saudi Arabia
Israel Malaysia
India Pakistan
Portugal
Qatar
South Africa R&D AS A PERCENT OF GDP
As noted, the global R&D forecast changed dramatically during 2020, as the most dire economic predictions made early in the year failed to materialize. At least part of this change was the result of proven and implemented vaccines in numerous countries near the end of the 2020. Our global R&D forecasts are strongly based on the individual economies of countries. This influence obviously varies, especially in the presence of a pandemic. The country GERD forecasts also are based on historic economic distributions for R&D. For example, China has for more than 20 years consistently invested heavily in its R&D. As a result, though its economic growth was hampered because of the pandemic (as was the case in all other countries), its historic investment of roughly 10% annual increases resulted in a rise in R&D for 2020. Almost all other countries (including the U.S.) saw their 2020 R&D investments decline from what they invested in 2019.
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
9
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The continuing large annual increases in Chinese R&D investments (non-stop for more than 20 years) and the inability of the U.S. to match those increases results in a forecast of China outspending the U.S. (for the very first time) in R&D ($622 billion for China vs $599 billion for the U.S.) in 2021. This nearly 4% difference can be partially explained by a 2% improvement in China’s annual GDP compared to a 4% decline in U.S. annual GDP for 2020. We’ve discussed this “passing of the torch” in R&D spending leadership for some time, but we felt it wouldn’t
10
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
happen until 2022 at the earliest. The pandemic just moved that crossover point up a year or two. The gap between China and U.S. R&D investment is expected to widen over the next several years, assuming that future R&D investments maintain similar relationships.
Continuing regional disparities The geographic areas of greatest R&D investment have evolved over time, and this evolution will continue in 2021. The pandemic-effecting economic changes have not
WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
changed these “swings.” If anything, the pandemic actually accelerated the rate of these changes. North America, South America and Europe will continue to lose R&D leadership shares in 2021, even as their spending levels rise with the global economic recovery. Similarly, Asia, and China in particular, will see their share of worldwide R&D improve in 2021, along with even more dramatic improvements in R&D spending. China, Japan, India and South Korea will drive Asia’s global R&D spending share to 46% in 2021, along with an increase of more than $4 trillion in combined GDP. While China will outpace the U.S. in R&D spending in 2021, India is expected to outspend South Korea and move up one spot in the top spender standings from #6 to #5. India has had a larger GDP than South Korea for many years (by a factor of over four), due primarily to its larger population (by a factor of 25+), but its R&D investment strategies have lagged behind most other major countries. Only within the past several years have we seen substantive improvements in India’s R&D investment policies. Africa, South America and the Middle East regions will continue to languish in the hierarchy of R&D spenders. The combined total R&D investments of these three regions is just 5% of the total global R&D spending, despite creating more than 13% of the total global GDP. These ratios have not changed significantly over the past 10 years with no evidence for any meaningful improvements over the next five years. &
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
11
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COVID-19 AND U.S. R&D As we end an economically disastrous 2020, the outlook for 2021 appears to be that of a “rousing recovery,” according to U.S. investment strategists. Economists anticipate that continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will support markets and that market-destabilizing political developments will not come to pass. A small economic recovery began in the summer of 2020, following the pandemic-induced economic ‘mini-crash’ in the spring. A resurgence in COVID cases and uncertainty about the November elections slowed this recovery in the fall, according to a Federal Reserve report. The positive outlook for 2021 is largely in response to the COVID-19 vaccine successes. The vaccine timeline allowed drug development, a full series of trials, regulatory approval, production, and the beginning of distribution across the planet to take place in less than a year. This feat was nothing short of extraordinary and faster than any drug development program in the past. Vaccinations in the first half of 2021 are expected to set the stage for vigorous growth recovery in the latter part of the year. Economists expect a return to a modified normalcy by mid-year or late-summer with numerous industries registering an increased demand for labor. The pre-COVID unemployment rate of 3.5% will not return in the short term, but the current rate of 6.7% will certainly drop. These events came at a steep price with an explosion in debt at the federal, state and personal levels. And these debt levels will linger for years. The expected strong economic growth, and nearzero interest rates through at least 2023, will work to minimize the long-term effects of this debt load. U.S. fiscal support measures are expected
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
2021 U.S. SOURCE-PERFORMER MATRIX Billions USD / Percent changes from 2020 Federal govt.
Industry
Academia
FFRDC
Non-profit
Total
Federal
$49.8
$40.0
$46.0
$17.0
$7.0
$159.8
government
-0.2%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-2.3%
-5.4%
-1.8%
$380.1
$10.0
$4.0
$2.3
$396.4
-1.1%
0.0%
-2.4%
-11.5%
-1.1%
$20.0
$0.3
$20.3
-12.7%
0.0%
-12.5%
Industry
Academia
Other
$4.0
$4.0
government
0.0%
0.0%
Non-Profit
$6.0
$0.2
$12.0
$18.2
-3.2%
-33.3%
-3.2%
-3.7%
Total
$49.8
$420.1
$86.0
$21.5
$21.3
$598.7
-0.2%
-1.2%
-4.6%
-4.1%
-4.9%
-1.8%
Top row indicates R&D performers | Left column indicates R&D source Source: R&D World, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, CIA Fact Book, National Science Foundation
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
to continue into 2021 with a ($900 billion) second stimulus bill approved in late-Dec. 2020 for small businesses, unemployed Americans, and health care workers, along with support for vaccine distribution. These support mechanisms are likely to happen in other countries as well. The European Central Bank, for example, is expected to boost asset purchases in the near future. As part of its measures to control the economic effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in August 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a new “average Inflation targeting” approach. This approach backs away from the Fed’s pre-emptive measures to control inflation by raising interest rates and allows inflation to be above target (currently
2.0%) for ‘some time.’ This policy will play into R&D asset manager plans as the Fed will be unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon to stave off inflation, even at the risk of rising inflation rates. Emerging markets are likely to benefit from the 2021 economic recovery with rates of growth superior to those of developed markets. Upward pressure on commodity prices will be consistent with a recovery in manufacturing and will impact emerging markets to a higher degree. Manufacturers have indicated in Fed surveys that they intend to resume capital expenditures in the coming months — the pandemic delayed spending plans in 2020. A real resurgence in capital spending will
not arise, however, until manufacturers see the pandemic-induced risks to the economy firmly behind them. Analysts still expect a limited number of virus flare-ups over the next year or so. But, with a steadily rising inoculation rate (estimated to approach 50% of the U.S. population by June), these flare-ups shouldn’t slow the economy much. However, an R&D World reader survey deployed in the Fall of 2020 revealed that more than half of researcher respondents expect the COVID-19 pandemic to still have negative R&D budgeting and performance effects beyond 2021. As of late December 2020, the pandemic in the U.S. still rages especially when compared to several other parts of the world. The U.K. also struggles with large numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths and has recently seen a virus variant that spreads much more rapidly. Effects from the vaccines being distributed in the U.S. (Moderna and Pfizer) are not expected to diminish the overall pandemic statistics (daily new caseloads and fatalities) until a large number of people are inoculated, possibly by the spring of 2021.
R versus D Applied research is original investigation undertaken to acquire new knowledge that is directed primarily toward a specific, practical aim or objective. Basic research is experimental or theoretical work undertaken primarily to acquire new knowledge of the underlying foundations of phenomena and observable facts without any particular application
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
or use in view. Total R&D expenditures are the sum of spending on experimental development, applied research and basic research. Experimental development is systematic work that draws on knowledge gained from research and practical experience and is directed toward producing new or improving existing products or processes. The U.S. continues to be the country making the biggest investments in both applied research and basic research, outspending second-place China by a ratio of about 2:1, or more than $50 billion in each research category. U.S. R&D investments divide
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
approximately into 20% applied research, 16.5% basic research, and the remaining 63.5% in experimental development. Until 2021, the U.S. outspent all other countries in total R&D investments. But in 2021, China is forecast to outspend the U.S. in total R&D by about 3.8% or $22.8 billion ($621.5 vs $598.7 billion USD – purchasing power parity). Since 2013, China has outspent the U.S. in experimental development. This trend continues, and China was estimated to outspend the U.S. in experimental development by nearly $70 billion in 2017, according to a recent report by the National
Science Foundation (NSF-20-304). In R&D intensity, the U.S. now ranks 10th in the world, dropping out of the top five after the mid-1990s, according to a recent report by the NSF. R&D intensity is the amount of R&D dollars as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Over the past 20 years, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and others have surpassed U.S. R&D intensity. R&D expressed by itself refers to the combined public (government) and private spending. Limited to only public R&D, the U.S. has similarly fallen in leadership. As of 2017, the U.S. ranks 14th, again a significant drop from its
WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
position within the top five in the mid-1990s. Public R&D intensity values in France, Germany, South Korea and Austria now exceed that of the U.S., a trend which appears to be a product of the federal R&D spending slowdown following the 2009 financial crisis. For the R&D World global R&D funding reports, GDP and R&D intensities are listed in purchasing power parity (PPP) values. PPP is an economic theory that allows the comparison of the purchasing power of various world currencies to one another. It is a theoretical exchange rate that theoretically allows buying the same amount of goods and services in every country. Government agencies use PPP to compare the output of countries that use different exchange rates. The PPP calculation provides the value of goods if all countries used the U.S. dollar. PPP is tedious to compute — a U.S. dollar value must be assigned to everything. The World Bank calculates specific PPP values for every country. For our reports, PPP values of each country’s GDP are obtained from multiple sources, with a heavy emphasis on the U.S. CIA’s (Central Intelligence Agency’s) World Factbook because of its broad coverage of most global countries. According to a recent R&D World reader survey, about a third of U.S. researchers currently work remotely, mostly due to COVID-19 quarantine restrictions. Those working remotely generally needn’t perform their R&D tasks in a research laboratory setting. Some researchers are still working in labs, according to a Dept. of Energy national laboratory representative. A
WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
significant number of researchers, however, have not visited their former workplace or lab since March 2020. As with many other kinds of businesses, interpersonal relationships and meetings among researchers now take place virtually in an increasingly ‘normal’ manner. This pandemic effect could possibly become a normal operational mode for research personnel, once the pandemic is over. According to the R&D World reader survey, a similar number of researchers (35%) are expected to work remotely in part or mostly throughout 2021. Only 20% of the survey respondents indicated they would work consistently in their research labs throughout 2021. Of those Americans working remotely throughout 2020 (researchers and non-researchers), a University of Chicago study in November 2020 found the largest beneficiary of the time saved from not having to commute to and from work was more time spent on traditional jobs (35%). Other activities seeing commuting-based time gains included indoor leisure (19%), home improvements (16%), and childcare (11%).
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
15
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Nevertheless, those working remotely on average still spent less time working than before the pandemic. Remote workers put 32 hours/week during the pandemic into their jobs and 36.4 hours/week into their jobs before the pandemic (not working remotely). Long-term, the pandemic is likely to have lasting effects for researchers beyond the virtual communications arrangements they created. According to our survey, R&D budgeting is likely to be reduced beyond 2021. More than a third of the survey respondents think this is likely to happen, while only 11% think R&D budgeting will rise beyond 2021. Along with reduced budgeting, actual R&D performance is also likely to drop beyond 2021 due primarily to the pandemic effects. About a quarter of the survey respondents fear their performance will suffer beyond 2021 while about 7% are optimistic their performance will rise during the same time period. A third of the survey respondents indicated that both R&D budgeting and performance would continue unchanged due to the pandemic beyond 2021.
situation hasn’t changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. A year ago, in 2019, slightly more than half of R&D managers queried in the 2020 Global R&D Funding Forecast-based reader survey found it difficult to get skilled staff. This result echoed that of reader surveys conducted over the past several years. But 75% of managers complained of staffing problems in our most recent researcher reader survey. At least a portion of this dramatic rise can be attributed to federal regulations that continue to restrict immigration. Another reason can be found in the dramatically reduced ability to commute because of pandemic and stay-at-home confinements. A year ago, a strong economy revealed a strong desire and need to boost R&D staff. As revealed in last year’s reader survey, about half of researchers responding to the survey expected to augment their R&D staffs in 2020. Following the pandemic, this ratio has now dropped below 50% — with a third of respondents revealing they would expect to reduce their R&D staffs in 2021, while only 8% thought would reduce staffs in 2020. &
R&D staffing Issues R&D managers always seem to have problems finding and retaining skilled R&D staff. The
16
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021 FEDERAL R&D STABILIZES R&D OVERALL GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FY2021 Appropriations for Select S&T Agencies FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2021
Actual
Enacted
Request
House
Dept. of Defense $2,476
$2,603
$2,319
$2,630
DARPA
$3,426
$3,458
$3,566
$3,512
$39,184
$41,685
$39,133
$42,221
Dept. of Energy $2,379
$2,777
$720
$2,852
Nuclear energy
$1,326
$1,493
$1,180
$1,436
Office of Science
$6,585
$7,000
$5,838
$7,055
$21,500
$22,559
$25,246
$22,630
Exploration technology
$1,350
$1,407
$1,401
$1,401
Science directorate
$6,887
$7,139
$6,307
$7,098
Exploration systems
$5,045
$6,018
$8,762
$6,018
National Science Foundation
$8,150
$8,278
$7,741
$8,548
USDA
$3,717
$3,704
$3,497
$3,613
DOC
$1,554
$1,624
$1,091
$1,675
USGS
$1,161
$1,271
$971
$1,295
EPA
$695
$716
$485
$747
VA Medical Research
$779
$750
$787
$840
Source: OMB, AAAS
18
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
Trump signed the U.S. Consolidated Appropriations Act for 2021. This $2.3 trillion spending bill combines $900 billion in stimulus relief for the COVID-19 pandemic in the FY2021 budget. The omnibus bill also prevents a government shutdown. An omnibus spending bill again appears to have become the de facto methodology for finalizing budgets because budgets are rarely agreed upon by the administration and congress in time for the
Energy efficiency/renewables
NASA
On December 27, 2020, President
the U.S. with a $1.4-trillion omnibus spending bill for
Basic Science
Natl. Institutes of Health
FEDERAL R&D
new fiscal year. In early 2020, the Trump Administration proposed broad reductions in its FY2021 Budget proposal. Proposed budget reductions in previous years were mostly overridden, especially with the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019, which allowed a $40 billion budget increase in FY2020, but then required a much smaller one in FY2021. The COVID-19 pandemic and its national debt-raising support bills and Trump’s election loss in November 2020 guaranteed a delay in budget finalization. From an agency funding standpoint, the Dept. of Defense (DoD) has a base budget of $671 billion with an additional $69 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations. That’s $2 billion over the DoD’s combined FY2020 budget. The DoD’s Science and Technology (S&T) budget increases 5% in FY2021 to $16.9 billion. Overall DoD funding for research, development, testing and evaluation (RDT&E) rises 2% to $111 billion. The U.S. Air Force leads all other U.S. military services for RDT&E with a budget of $47.7 billion. The new (one-year-old) Space Force boosts its R&D spending to $10.3 billion in FY2021 from $9.8 billion in its inaugural FY2020 budget. The Space Force increases its overall manpower to 10,100 in FY2021 from 160 at the start of FY2020. Most personnel who were previously assigned to the U.S. Air Force Space Command (a command within the USAF) now help the U.S. Space Force perform its missions. The DoD’s total FY2021 budget is basically WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FEDERAL R&D
Federally Funded R&D Centers Billons USD 2018
2019
Total
$21.2
$22.7
Federal government
$20.8
$22.3
State/local government
$0.1
$0.1
Industry
$0.2
$0.2
Non-profit
$0.1
$0.1
Other
$0.1
$0.1
Source: AAAS, NSF
the same as it was in FY2020 (within 1%). This concerned some Congressional House Armed Services Committee members who called for a 3% to 5% bump to outpace U.S. adversaries. NASA has an FY2021 budget of $23.3 billion. This is $642 million more than it received in FY2020, but nearly $2 billion less than the agency’s request of $25.2 billion. NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), Orion spacecraft and Exploration Ground Systems all received funding at or above the administration’s request. However, the funding bill only provides $850 million for NASA’s Human Landing System, only a quarter of its request which puts a 2024 moon landing at risk, according to NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. NASA also only received about 10% of its request for a commercial low-Earth-orbit development program, about the same as it got in FY2020. This restricts NASA’s ability to develop a commercial successor for the International Space Station. Omnibus funding for NASA does provide funding for planetary defense programs, including the Double Asteroid Redirection Test and the Near-Earth Object Surveillance Mission. The FY2021 omnibus funding bill provides $9.2 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), about $180 million more than in FY2020. The administration had proposed a drastic 26.5% reduction for the EPA in FY2021 from its FY2020 budget with several terminated programs, which the congressional committees put back into the budget. The National Science Foundation (NSF) WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
received $8.5 billion in FY2021, billion NIH has received through previous 3% more, expanding research pandemic response bills. and educa tion programs while Political analysts are already second2020 maintaining level funding for guessing President-Elect Biden’s responses to major construction projects. several government issues. The primary issues $22.4 The collapsed Arecibo facing Biden, according to a report in the Wall $21.9 radio telescope, which was Street Journal, are: Section 230 of the 1996 supported by NSF funding (and Communications Decency Act; net neutrality; $0.1 managed by the University of artificial intelligence (AI); China relations; and Central Florida), has triggered the Obama legacy. $0.2 a campaign to rebuild a new Concerning section 230, the consensus $0.1 and improved telescope at is that Biden may find some way to slow the the site. Initial rough estimates spread of certain content on social media, but $0.1 of $400 million to accomplish he’s not likely to eliminate it completely as this will have to wait for future Trump desired. Biden may want to restore at funding programs. least some parts of net neutrality, although it The Dept. of Energy (DoE) received $39.6 will take some time in 2021 to do that. billion in funding for FY2021, a $1 billion No one knows how Biden will respond to boost over its FY2020 funding. It’s Advanced AI — its just too complex of an issue. Biden’s Research Projects Agency (ARPA) received relations with China are thought to pretty much $427 million, a $2 million increase over its follow those of Trump, although without the FY2020 budget. DoE also received $7.8 billion trade embargos and other hype. And many for environmental management activities, a rise Obama-era tech agencies and policies were of $171 million, with $6.4 billion allocated for left untouched by Trump and are likely to cleanup associated with past nuclear weapons remain intact by Biden. The U.S. Digital Service production (primarily at the DoE Hanford, (USDS), was created in 2014 with a mission to Wash., site). improve federal websites and the technologies The National Institutes of Health (NIH) required to deliver federal services. This will see a 3% budget increase in FY2021 to will continue to be a priority with the Biden just under $43 billion, marking the sixth year administration, according to the report. & in a row the agency has seen its funding rise by more than $1 billion. Most of the agency’s institutes will get between 1.5% and 3% more, except for those focused on Federal R&D aging and minority health disparities FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY20/21 which will see Actual Estimated Request Change significantly Basic research $39.4 $43.4 $40.6 -6.4% larger increases. The omnibus bill Applied research $45.7 $46.9 $40.5 -13.7% also includes an extra $1.5 billion Experimental development $60.6 $67.8 $66.0 -2.7% to the NIH to R&D facilities $4.4 $6.0 $3.8 -36.4% “prevent, prepare for, and respond Total R&D $141.2 $157.1 $143.9 -8.4% to coronavirus, Defense R&D $63.2 $73.5 $69.5 -5.5% domestically or internationally.” Non-defense R&D $78.0 $83.6 $74.4 -11.0% This adds to the more than $3 Source: AAAS, NSF R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
19
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ACADEMIC R&D
PANDEMIC CREATES CONVOLUTED ACADEMIC R&D ENTERPRISE The COVID-19 pandemic created numerous issues in early 2020 relating to academic R&D. When the pandemic first spread throughout the U.S. in March, schools were among the first establishments to close their facilities to prevent the spread of the virus. This remained the standard operating mode through the end of the year. With no students, universities saw a drastic reduction in revenue and shortfalls in operating funds. This drop was a big blow to many universities that had already been struggling financially. Externally funded R&D, in general, was not as severely affected. This was especially true of federally funded programs, which only saw minor temporary funding bumps. But the infrastructure became at risk. And student support for research programs became troubling at best. By the end of the year, with both remote learning in place and the prospect of successful vaccines, many of these issues were somewhat under control. More troubling was the change in research focus toward COVID vaccines at the expense of research on other life science programs. Little research has been done on the effects of this transfer of resources, which will likely be slightly alleviated in 2021, especially as new funding supplements become available targeted directly at COVID-based concerns. Also, in many large urban communities, university hospitals — which had been strong research-based facilities — became overloaded with COVID-infected patients, testing procedures and increased cleaning and security protocols. Research programs at those facilities have been delayed, to say the least. As noted in the nearby chart, about 60% of the R&D performed (by dollar amounts) in academia is life-science based. So when that level of R&D is suddenly refocused on solving massive pandemic-related issues, the overall focus of university R&D is at risk. The whole pandemic experience has dramatically
2021 WORLD UNIVERSITY RESEARCH RANKINGS 2021 Research Score
2021 Overall Rank
University of Oxford, UK
99.6
1
2
University of Cambridge, UK
99.2
6
3
3
Harvard University, U.S.
98.8
3
4
13
University of California, Berkeley, U.S.
97.2
7
5
4
California Institute of Technology, U.S.
96.9
4
6
5
Stanford University, U.S.
96.7
2
7
8
Tsinghua University, China
94.9
20
8
10
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S.
94.4
5
9
7
Yale University, U.S.
93.8
8
10
6
Princeton University, U.S.
92.5
9
2021 Research Rank
2020 Research Rank
1
1
2
11
9
ETH Zurich, Switzerland
92.3
14
12
12
Johns Hopkins University, U.S.
91.8
12
13
16
Peking University, China
91.3
23
14
18
University of Toronto, Canada
90.9
18
15
14
National University of Singapore, Singapore
90.8
25
16
17
University of Tokyo, Japan
90.7
36
17
11
University of Chicago, U.S.
90.5
10
18
20
University of California, Los Angeles, U.S.
90.2
15
19
15
University of Pennsylvania, U.S.
89.9
13
20
19
University College London, UK
89.4
16
21
21
Imperial College London, UK
88.2
11
22
22
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, U.S.
86.9
22
23
23
Cornell University, U.S.
86.7
19
24
24
Northwestern University, U.S.
83.6
24
25
27
Columbia University, U.S.
82.9
17
Source: The Times Higher Education (THE)
20
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ACADEMIC R&D
Academic R&D, Source of Funds
Academic R&D Grants
Billons USD
Billons USD
All R&D
Basic Research
Applied Research
Experimental Development
Share
Federal
$41.9
$26.8
$12.0
$3.2
53%
Non-Federal
$37.3
$22.6
$10.2
$4.5
47%
Total
$79.3
$49.4
$22.2
$7.7
100%
Share
100%
62%
28%
10%
Source: National Science Foundation, 2018
All R&D fields
$79.3
Natural Science
$11.3
Computer science
$2.4
Atmospheric science
$3.2
Earth science
$1.1
Marine science
$1.1
Life Science
changed the way academic R&D is and will be performed in the future. The risks, the urgency and the personal sacrifices (and the obvious costs) far exceeded what had been seen in previous life science R&D programs. And it is far from over. Academia still has an enormous amount of work to do in bringing their facilities and operations back to some level of normalcy. There’s also a vast amount of research necessary to specifically determine why the large differences in the case loads occurred between countries and what can be done when the next deadly virus appears. The U.S. did not handle this specific COVID-19 virus well despite several decades of experience in identifying an annual
influx of influenza invasions. The next COVID-19 variant could be much more deadly. Hopefully, researchers will have learned something from this iteration — clearly the general public does not seem to have learned much from it.
Changes In the past, academic R&D, especially in the life science arena, was mostly secretive. There was collaboration only among financially secure partners, and testing results were held close to the vest to insure strong financial rewards upon successful completion (or to minimize the financial penalties upon publication of testing failures). During the COVID-19 vaccine development, researchers freely exchanged
Academic R&D, Funding
Academic R&D, Costs
Billions USD
Billions USD Share
All costs
$79.3
$45.8
Agricultural science
$3.3
Biological science
$14.6
Health science
$25.9
Natural science
$0.8
Physical Science
$5.2
Mathematical
$0.7
Astronomy
$0.7
Chemistry
$1.2
Materials
$0.3
Physics
$2.2
Engineering
$12.4
Aerospace
$1.0
Biomedical
$1.3
Chemical
$0.9
Civil
$1.4
Electrical
$2.8
Industrial
$0.5
All R&D
$79.4
100%
Direct costs
$61.0
Mechanical
$1.6
Federal government
$42.0
53%
Salaries
$34.8
Materials
$0.8
$4.3
5%
Software
$0.1
Source: NSF, 2018
$20.4
26%
Capital equipment
$2.1
Industry
$4.7
6%
Pass through
$6.3
Nonprofit
$5.4
7%
Other direct
$17.6
All other
$2.5
3%
Indirect
$18.3
Recovered
$12.8
Unrecovered
$5.5
State/Local government Institution
Source: NSF, 2018
Source: NSF, 2018
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021 Top Universities in THE Rankings Universities Within the Top 100 2020
2021
United States
40
37
United Kingdom
11
11
Netherlands
7
7
Germany
8
7
Australia
6
6
China
3
6
Canada
5
5
Switzerland
4
4
Hong Kong
3
3
Switzerland
4
4
France
3
3
Japan
2
2
South Korea
2
2
Singapore
2
2
Taiwan
-
1
Sweden
2
1
Belgium
1
1
Finland
1
1
Denmark
-
1
Source: Times Higher Education Rankings
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ACADEMIC R&D
information and data. The result was the identification, development, testing, full-scale clinical trial qualification, production and global distribution of basically billions of doses of the vaccine — all in less than a year. This scale of drug development often takes between six to 10 years to accomplish. It is clearly doubtful that this level of collaboration and communication will carry over into the development of other less pervasive healthcare products. Its possible that some collaborations will be maintained into the future, but only following approval from the various legal departments of the involved parties. Assuming vaccines currently being distributed continue to meet expectations, and the pandemic slowly withers away over 2021 with no major unexpected re-surgences, academic research labs will return to some semblance of normalcy by mid-2021. COVID cases will likely remain with us, primarily due to those anti-vaxers who refuse to be inoculated. As a result, fullscale ramp-up of R&D programs to the levels seen before 2020 won’t likely occur until 2022. And even then, strong security and social distancing measures will probably remain in place. Principal researchers and grad student assistants could resume their pre-COVID levels of R&D by late-2021, again with full levels of security and social distancing still in place. It is unlikely that academia will return to its normal level of person-to-person instruction before early 2022. And even then, academic administrations will have to make some accommodations to ensure their tuition-paying ‘customers’ are safe and comfortable. The data presented in this section concerning the various dollar amounts of R&D performed in 2018, following several years of strong growth are likely to be closely matched in 2022, with some growth beyond that level occurring in 2023. The good news: The strength of the U.S. academic community is likely to return by 2022. Other countries, especially in Asia, will make inroads into that strength, but the overall strength of U.S. academia should prevail despite the operational “blip” in 2020. U.S. academia still had Nobel prize winners in chemistry, physics and economics in 2020 — and that expertise remains in place without any hindrances. China will continue to boost its academic R&D infrastructure in 2021 and beyond and could approach the level of U.S. and European acceptance by 2030. &
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
R&D AFTER THE PANDEMIC A pandemic world has added several complications to what is already a complex process — preparing a one-year R&D budget. Perhaps most obviously, the pandemic is not over and no one really knows how long it’s going to last. As noted in our 2020 R&D World reader survey last November, more than 60% of researchers stated that even with several vaccines available and the majority of the population inoculated by August 2021, there will still be both budgeting and performance pandemic effects in R&D beyond 2021. There is likely to be some semblance of normalcy by the Fall 2021. But, as of January 5, there already have been at least two significant mutations of the original coronavirus, both more contagious than the original. The new strain already accounts for more than 60% of the infections in the UK, which is seeing a surge and has led to the initiation of its third “strict” national lockdown. The coronavirus will likely mutate again, as all viruses do. At least some of these new virus strains also may not be defeated by the current vaccines, so new vaccines will need to be developed.
Luckily, the new virus strains do not appear to be more deadly than the original strain, and the work involved in creating a new vaccine for these new strains will be less involved and faster. But after you get your first vaccination course this year, you’re likely to need another in less than a year to stay healthy. With regard to R&D budgeting, researchers say the main challenges include economic disruptions, increasing costs and insufficient budget. These factors always show up in polls of researchers but they’re accelerated in 2021 with the societal effects of the pandemic. Overall revenues are down for many organizations due to the shutdowns in 2020 and could possibly be a factor again in 2021. Operating costs are up with delays from suppliers and increased healthcare costs and personnel issues. And researcher productivity is down due to work-at-home rules and social distancing, boosting personnel costs above those of previous years. Practices such as work-at-home rules and virtual meetings are effective in a limited environment, but will not work for long term worker-employer relationships, according to a survey of corporate leaders by the Wall Street Journal last Fall. Of the 10 CEOs interviewed by the WSJ, only two stated that remote work environments would work for their companies. One of those was a publisher and the other was involved in retail pharmaceutical products. The other eight CEOs — who hailed from Apple, Facebook, Microsoft (which combined have nearly $60 billion in forecast 2021 R&D spending), banking, investment, and robotics — stated that while virtual conversations have their own strengths, “you just cannot get the same quality of work” with virtual meetings. If there is good news in R&D budgeting about the past year, it is that technologies involved in virtual meetings evolved more quickly than they might have normally. Most likely, biopharms also learned how to sequence faster and more accurately, and healthcare workers learned how to do triage and analyses faster and more accurately (before becoming exhausted). Software for big-data life science applications also improved. In some limited healthcare applications, robotics took hold earlier than it might have been otherwise.
Source: R&D World survey
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
WWW.RDWORLDONLINE.COM
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Source: R&D World survey
But in commercial aerospace applications, work slowed because of reduced revenues from lengthy airline shutdowns (and into 2021 as well). Conventional energy areas also slowed because demand dropped and production diminished. The automotive sector fared well as publictransit options looked risky and stay-at-home workers bought new cars with their savings. All in all, budgeting for R&D isn’t the challenge in 2021 that it might be otherwise. For one thing, there’s no concern for slowing market growth because markets in many areas were stagnant for much of 2020. And though most technologies didn’t change much, neither did regulations. Healthcare issues will be a bigger concern in 2021 as managers try to ensure a safer workplace for their researchers. Lab designers will also deal with new criteria for construction and modifications or redesigns for projects completed before 2021 but not yet implemented. Survey respondents did not list safety and security as a big budget item for 2021 (only a 13% response item), but R&D managers and budgeting officers may reconsider their priority in 2021 and 2022 R&D budgets. As noted above, most people will want to return to at least a limited normalcy by at the end of 2021, but this return won’t happen without significant changes to the R&D laboratory and office environments. And those changes may affect money spent on air handling systems, safety systems, and laboratory operating procedures. Monitoring systems for lab and research staff may also become a necessity. Multi-stage
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decontamination systems have been used for Asian children before they enter their schools. These systems involved robotic temperature monitors and high-intensity UV-based decontamination lighting systems. The whole process can take place quickly, reliably and inexpensively, once the equipment is installed. Telecommunications is also a relatively low-ranked R&D budget item in our survey (only a 7% response item). Because virtual meetings
Source: R&D World survey
R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
25
2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Globalization is noted as a factor affecting the creation of 2021 R&D budgets. The problem here is that many organizations are now pulling back on new foreign production or research labs. This trend is in both directions, especially as U.S. infection and fatality rates continue to surge to daily high levels. Long-distance airline travel to support foreign research labs is also becoming a potentially hazardous process that research organizations may want to minimize. One good development to come of the pandemic is the public perception of R&D. The rapid development of pandemic vaccines by multiple organizations, in multiple locations and countries, in record-setting times, showcased the value R&D expertise can provide to the human experience. The resulting warm glow may speed the approval of professionally prepared R&D budgets moreso than in previous years where R&D operations may not have been as well received by the “bean counters.”
Important technologies In our survey questionnaire, respondents picked artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy as the most important technologies by 2024. AI is evolving at a rapid rate, being used in more applications than the general public is aware Source: R&D World survey of. AI is not yet a perfect science, but its continued evolution in multiple applications, and especially in life science and often became the norm in 2020, researchers may have become healthcare, will bring it to another higher level of acceptance. accustomed to this protocol and may want to continue it on some level. Most nonprofessionals treat AI as something to be wary of or even Virtual meetings may be preferred for some time, out of safety fears. to be fought. But in its current state, AI has made our lives easier and As such, new telecom technologies may have to go in research labs, less formidable. In its next level, where it contributes to the physical researchers’ homes or remote meeting areas. well being of humanity, it should become more welcomed. New regulations relating to the COVID-19 pandemic have yet to be Respondents also see Big Data as an important technology. It will discussed, but it’s likely that 2021 will see some come into force in ways continue to evolve even without any major breakthroughs. It’s already that could affect R&D budgets for 2022. Individual labs may decide to used by all the major organizations that constantly look for the next implement safety items like personnel temperature monitoring systems step-wise advance. Big Data technologies were certainly a major part of at entry points. Such practices are already common in places such as the COVID-19 vaccine development programs and contributed to the doctors’ offices and hospitals. ultra-short development timelines.
Source: R&D World survey
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Source: R&D World survey
Permanent CHANGES FROM COVID Many of the responses to this survey question have already been discussed, and research managers should take note of their importance in this query. The item noting reduced foreign collaborations (20% survey response) likely only refers to face-to-face meetings. Without R&D collaborations, the evolution of many scientific endeavors will not continue. Both money and time will be wasted without collaborations. As Benjamin Franklin stated, “do not squander time, for that is the stuff life is made of.” After living through a year with a global pandemic that has taken literally millions of lives and dramatically changed more millions of peoples’ lives forever, it is hard to foresee a future R&D environment that does not look dramatically different than the past. There will be changes in how we interact. Changes in how we take care of ourselves will happen. We will change how we perform research, where we go and how we get there. We will be safer and we will survive. &
Source: R&D World survey
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
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2021
GLOBAL R&D
FUNDING FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2021 GLOBAL R&D FUNDING FORECAST RESOURCES The following organizations and their websites are good resources for information on the global R&D enterprise. Information contained in this report was derived from these sources to forecast R&D funding.
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) www.aaas.org Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) www.most.gov.cn/eng/ Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) http://english.cas.cn Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) www.darpa.mil EU Industrial R&D Scoreboard https://iri.jrc.ec.europa.eu/scoreboard European Commission Research ec.europa.eu/info/research-andinnovation_en European Industrial Research Management Association (EIRMA) www.eirma.org European Union Community R&D Information Service (CORDIS) https://cordis.europa.eu/en
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
Global Innovation Index (GII) www.globalinnovationindex.org
Schonfeld & Associates https://saibooks.com
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) https://itif.org
Strategy& (Global Innovation 1000) https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/gx/ en/insights/innovation1000.html
Innovation Research Interchange (IRI) www.iriweb.org
The World Bank www.worldbank.org
International Monetary Fund (IMF) www.imf.org
Times Higher Education (THE) Rankings timeshighereducation.com
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Japan) www.nistep.go.jp/en Korean Industrial Technology Association (KOITA) eng.koita.or.kr Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) www.oecd.org
U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (DOE OS) science.energy.gov U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) www.nsf.gov
Research!America www.researchamerica.org
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OUTSIDE PERSPECTIVES
Dean Kamen speaks out on U.S. and global innovation By Paul J. Heney, VP, Editorial Director
Recently, I interviewed master inventor Dean Kamen, well known as the inventor of the stair climbing wheelchair and the Segway, as well as the creator of the FIRST Robotics competitions for school children. I explained to Dean how R&D World’s Global Funding Forecast was reporting that China will outspend the U.S. for the very first time in R&D in 2021. As our report predicts, China will invest $622 billion in R&D this year, versus $599 billion for the U.S. I asked Dean what he thought about China’s R&D investments in areas like robotics and AI — and from a technology standpoint, are we going to keep up? Did this concern him at all? Here is his insightful answer. Yes, it concerns me a lot, but I think overly simplistically saying, no, we as a country should always spend more than anybody in the world is both neither practical or fair or realistic. They have a multiple of our population, they eat a multiple of the amount of food we eat every day, even if it’s the same amount per capita. The fact is, they have less food per capita, but they still eat more than we do. You have to normalize that. So, it’ll come a point, I hope, where the world has a much better distribution of educated people that are all working on solving problems. And part of me says, “I’d rather have 10 times as many people racing towards curing this form of cancer or that form of cancer before I find out it’s the one I have.”
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Kamen article - R&D 4-21.indd 30
I think, whether we come up with a great new engine that doesn’t pollute, whether that’s invented in the U.S. or China, or Israel — or any other country in the world — as long as it’s properly disseminated, we all win. In a world where good ideas can be spread across the whole globe, why wouldn’t we want as many smart kids everywhere doing that? But having said that, am I worried that it’s not just that China is spending more and more on research and development, but maybe on a per capita basis, the U.S. isn’t doing everything it should be doing to stay globally competitive? I am worried about that. All you have to do is look at this country. We started out with 13 little colonies that somehow escaped from one of the biggest empires the world had ever seen. And these 13 little colonies certainly didn’t start with massive amounts of libraries and universities and research institutions like all of Europe had, or thousands of years of China. Yet, from the time this country became what we now think of as America, from the very beginning, we just screamed ahead of the rest of the world in terms of almost every metric that we claim we value today: public education, standard of living, quality of life, access to health, you name it. How could that be? How did that happen? This country was about innovators. They created wealth. We didn’t conquer other countries. We didn’t take over other countries. We were a country built on innovation. It’s not a coincidence that Thomas Edison was here, that Wilbur and Orville Wright were here. When you look at the history throughout the industrial revolution and up until today, whether you think about the modern versions of some of these super innovative companies, whether it’s Apple or Google, they are here, and they create industries, they create great jobs, they create a future. And by the way, a lot of the technologies they create are sustaining and protecting our independence and our freedom. So, if America has any question about whether there’s a return on investment at the government level for research and development, all they have to do is ask themselves why has America always been so uniquely great and always outpacing the rest of the world? And if we stop investing in
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4/19/21 3:18 PM
OUTSIDE PERSPECTIVES
innovation, I really want most of these people that think there’s a debate about that to look in the mirror and say, “You think you’re just entitled to a better standard of living? You think it’s just going to come free because of what your great-grandparents once did?” America needs to keep reinvesting in its future, in education, in kids, in innovation, taking the risks, reasonable risks, and doing things first, and doing things best, and doing things that are scalable, and doing things that will be valuable to us, and then valuable around the rest of the world, so that we can maintain and justifiably maintain a high standard of living without doing it at the expense of other people. I think, ironically, a lot of countries in the world have figured this out, while we’re sitting back taking it for granted. A lot of countries around the world, not just China, are highly motivated to make technology, STEM education for their kids, a
very, very high priority, because they just look at the model, America. They all think that’s a great, great, great aspirational model to have. They don’t think it’s because we have Democrats or Republicans, they think it’s because we’ve been innovative — and we have technology available to so many people that have this high standard of living because we use these technologies. And the rest of the world is determined to create that next wave of technology where they are. Let’s make it a competition where we all win because everybody’s creating more and better technologies at a faster rate, hopefully to keep us ahead of disasters, whether that’s global warming or other shortages. But as the rest of the world picks up their pace, yes, I am worried. If the U.S. doesn’t pick up our pace, we’re going to wake up one day and say, “Huh, we’ve lost that edge, we’ve lost that lead.” We can’t assume that this is
going to be the best place for all of us to retire. That’s not a birthright, that’s something that every generation has earned. And I want our culture to make it clear to the next generation, the kids, “You better earn it, or you won’t have it.” & For more information on FIRST, please visit www.firstinspires.org.
It’s not a web page, it’s an industry information site So much happens between issues of R&D World that even another issue would not be enough to keep up. That’s why it makes sense to visit rdworldonline.com and stay on Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin. It’s updated regularly with relevant technical information and other significant news for the design engineering community.
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Kamen article - R&D 4-21.indd 31
4/19/21 3:18 PM
PRODUCT WORLD
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Fluon EM-20010 compounds, ready-to-use materials inhibit the growth of viruses and bacteria, including the COVID-19 virus. They are a suitable material for extruded film applications that benefit from antimicrobial properties such as coverings for high-touch surfaces like walls, doors and tables at facilities such as hospitals, schools, office buildings, hotels, entertainment venues and restaurants. Fluon+ EM-20010 compounds are formulated from melt-processable copolymers composed of ethylene and tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) and a specialty additive that safely blocks bacterial and viral growth. The compound is sold in pellet form and can be tailored to incorporate other resin systems or meet a customer’s required antimicrobial properties. Plastic film laminates made with Fluon+ EM-20010 compounds are more cleanable and durable than other surface coverings that are not ETFE-based. The material has excellent transparency and will not yellow over time. It resists abrasion and harsh chemicals and is nonflammable. The base resin is FDA-compliant for Food Contact Notification (FCN) 1914.
The Miele PG 8583 and PG 8593 glassware washers have both earned the coveted ACT Label from My Green Lab, a non-profit organization dedicated to creating a culture of sustainability in science. Miele is the only glassware washer manufacturer to have achieved ACT Label certification. The ACT acronym represents Accountability, Consistency and Transparency, and much like nutrition labels, the ACT label shows how products ‘rate’ in sustainability-related categories. The Miele PG 8583 glassware washer has been given an Environmental Impact Factor of 72.5, and the Miele PG 8593 glassware washer has an Environmental Impact Factor of 76.6. The Environmental Impact Factor is a sum of verified information on a product’s energy consumption, water use and end-of-life.
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R&D WORLD | APRIL 2021
Miele PG 8583 and PG 8593 Laboratory Glassware Washers • ACT Label Certified • DI water connection, liquid dispensing • Perf./cycle, e.g., up to 128 flasks per cycle • Optimized cleaning performance and efficient use of resources variable speed pump with integrated heating elements • Safety through monitoring - wash pressure and spray arm monitoring • Convenient drying – EcoDry or DryPlus with HEPA filter
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PRODUCT WORLD
Fluorolog-QM modular research grade spectrofluorometer
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The Fluorolog-QM is a lens free, all reflective spectrofluorometer for accurate focus at all wavelengths from the deep UV (180 nm) to the NIR (5,500 nm). It features sensitivity specification at 32,000:1 signal to noise ratio for the Raman band of water using the FSD (Square Root) method. It also offers focal length monochromators at 350 mm for single monochromators, and 700 mm for double monochromators, for the ultimate in stray light rejection. The Fluorolog-QM lets you detect the lowest possible concentrations of fluorescence. The instrument is controlled with fluorescence software, FelixFL, a comprehensive software platform for all acquisition and analysis of spectral and time-resolved data. Combined with up to 4 light sources, up to 6 detector options, and sample handling accessories, Fluorolog-QM can be enhanced to suit a broad range of luminescence research applications. These can range from a simple steady state configuration with a single light source and single cooled PMT housing, to the largest most versatile configuration with four different light source options and six different detectors, all connected to the same instrument and all controlled automatically with FelixFL software. The Fluorolog-QM delivers steady state, spectral and time resolved photoluminescence performance from 180 to 5,500 nm.
The EchoTherm Stackable/ Programmable Vibration Free Chilling Incubators are for protein crystallography and other life science uses. The incubators are 27-liter capacity and Peltier-based for heating and chilling. They have no compressors or CFCs and are vibrationfree making them suitable for doing protein crystallizations. Other applications include incubating marine samples below room temperature, enzyme reactions and deactivations, hybridizations, ligations, storing oocytes, and general lab incubations. Three units may be stacked using two stacker accessories Model IN30-300. The IN35 is a fully programmable unit that can store three programs in memory and features precise temperature ramping both up and down. Temperatures are settable from 4.0° C to 70.0° C controllable to ± 0.1° C, and accuracy to ± 0.2° C. They have RS232 I/O port for remote control and data collection, digital timer in hours, minutes and seconds with user settable auto-off, and audible alarms. Chamber size is 12 x 10 x 14 in. and comes with two stainless-steel racks with room for four. They are UL, CSA and CE compliant.
Checkit Go instant verification Next Advance Nextadvance.com The Checkit Go is a fast, convenient, easy-to-use disposable cartridge that measures the accuracy of automatic liquid handlers or multichannel pipettes. The size of a well plate, it measures the dispensed volumes of up to 8 channels simultaneously, in seconds. No more trying to read a tiny droplet’s weight on a high-precision balance eight times. The Checkit Go directly measures the volume of the liquid dispensed, not an indirect measurement of the weight or the color of the liquid. This low-cost solution requires no additional equipment or training.
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PRODUCT WORLD
KingFisher Apex Purification System Thermo Fisher Scientific Thermofisher.com The KingFisher Apex Purification System is a high-throughput sample purification instrument designed for scientists who need to automate the extraction of DNA, RNA, proteins and cells from an array of sample types. The instrument is easy to use, saves time and enables consistent results even as laboratory needs evolve. The KingFisher Apex enables nucleic acid, protein and cell isolation while allowing users to customize protocols directly from the instrument to provide flexible, reproducible and fast sample preparation without additional expense or complexity. It automates much of the error-prone work associated with preparing high-quality nucleic acids and proteins, can process for 24 to 96 samples in 25 to 65 minutes and elutes in low volumes (10 µL) for demanding downstream applications.
Detection of Gram Positive bacteria ViroStat virostat-inc.com There are medical conditions where rapid detection of Gram Positive bacteria is critical. An example of this is sepsis where time is of the essence. Most Gram Positive bacteria possess a cell wall polymer of lipoteichoic acid (LTA). LTA can be shed from growing bacteria and is also present on the intact bacterium itself. ViroStat has just released a new set of monoclonal antibodies to LTA. These antibody pairs can be used to detect both free LTA as well as cell wall LTA of intact bacteria. These new antibodies detect the LTA of many Gram Positive bacteria including: ataph aureus, staph epidermidis, strep pneumoniae, strep pyogenes, bacillus cereus, bacillus subtilis, enterococcus faecalis and listeria species. These new antibody pairs represent powerful tools for assay development for bacterial detection.
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SARS-CoV-2 NeutraLISA Assay Euroimmun Euroimmun.com
SARS-CoV-2 NeutraLISA assay is a surrogate neutralization test intended for the detection of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19. The CE marked assay adds to the company’s portfolio of COVID-19 diagnostics and is currently available in more than 30 countries that accept the CE mark. In COVID-19, antibodies that target the viral receptor binding domain (RBD) in the S1 domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein have been shown to exhibit a virus-neutralizing capacity, which predominately are IgG antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 enters a human host cell through interaction of its RBD with the host cell ACE2 receptor. However, if the RBD is blocked by specific antibodies formed during immune response, the virus cannot continue to infect and proliferate within the human body. This is why many leading COVID-19 vaccine developments are also based on this protein domain. The EUROIMMUN SARS-CoV-2 NeutraLISA imitates this natural process by determining the inhibitory effect of antibodies capable of hampering the interaction between biochemically produced RBD and ACE2. Unlike standard neutralization tests, which can be labor-intensive and require handling of the live virus in a specialized high-safety laboratory setting, the SARS-CoV-2-NeutraLISA assay is based on wellestablished ELISA technology and uses non-pathogenic viral proteins. As such, the assay can be processed in common lab settings either manually or automatically.
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PRODUCT WORLD
COVID-19 rapid antigen self-test Mologic mologic.co.uk Rapid antigen self-test for COVID-19 has been selected by the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics (RADx) initiative launched by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH). The initiative aims to speed innovation in the development, commercialization and implementation of technologies for COVID-19 testing. Mologic’s easy-to-use, affordable nasal swab test is intended for use by non-health professionals at home and accurately indicates the presence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein in approximately 20 minutes. Mologic’s independently verified COVID-19 lateral flow technology combines all reagents in a unique design and integrates reporting of results. The self-test can be used by a person without medical training at the point-of-need, including home, workplace, education and travel settings. Limit of detection and analytical sensitivity have been independently assessed by St Georges’ University of London, led by Dr Elisabetta Groppelli.
AI-driven semantic search platform SciBite Scibite.com SciBiteSearch offers powerful interrogation and analysis capabilities across unstructured and structured data, from public and proprietary sources. Researchers today face increasing challenges around accessing and deriving meaningful insights from the everlarger volumes of data, presented in an array of formats from multiple sources. SciBiteSearch provides scientists with access to domain specific ontology and AI-powered search capabilities, allowing users to connect and build knowledge from their data. SciBiteSearch goes beyond traditional search methods, using knowledge graphs to augment searches and deliver not only items relevant to the query but the structure and relationship between them. The addition of AI further enhances the search experience enabling natural language understanding.
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FLIR T865 thermal camera FLIR Flir.com
The latest T-Series high-performance thermal camera, the FLIR T865. Built for electrical condition and mechanical equipment inspection, and for use in research and development applications, the T865 provides ±1.6 °F (±1 °C) or ±1% temperature measurement accuracy, a wider temperature range between -40 °F to 248 °F (–40 °C to 120 °C), and more on-camera tools for improved analysis. A free 3-month subscription to FLIR Thermal Studio Pro and FLIR Route Creator, and a 1-month subscription to FLIR Research Studio is included with purchase. With ±1.6° F (±1 °C) or ±1% temperature measurement accuracy, professionals can more confidently inspect and assess equipment health regardless of the time between inspections or changes in environment conditions. By reducing measurement variation, companies can reliably prevent equipment breakdowns and outages in utility substations, power generation and distribution, data centers, manufacturing plants or facility electrical and mechanical systems. For those in research and development, the improved accuracy provides the temperature measurement detail required to eliminate any guesswork in research, science and design that uses the visualization of heat.
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