From The Editor Dear Members and Friends of WWEA, This new edition of our WWEA Quarterly Bulletin documents several of the latest trends of wind power in the world: WWEA President Prof. He Dexin outlines the role of wind power with regard to the recent G20 meeting in Australia. WWEA suggests that the governments of the G20 countries should focus even more on the expansion of renewable energy and that they should seek to develop a global renewable energy investment programme. Unfortunately, as reflected in WWEA’s Half-year Report, the OECD countries have recently reduced their efforts to switch their energy supply to renewable energy - and several countries have weakened their related policies. Some countries are now considering the switch from very efficient and successful feed-in tariff schemes to tender systems. The risks of such a shift are clearly presented in Eva Hauser’s article, where she demonstrates that tender systems go hand in hand with a reduced number and variety of investors, and in the longer term result in higher costs for wind power. Fortunately, wind is still growing fast in the so-called developing countries, most notably in China, India and Brazil – the latter having become the third largest national wind turbine market in 2014. We welcome the development and growth of these emerging markets, which go hand in hand with the growth of WWEA itself: indeed, WWEA is very happy to have recently welcomed our 600th member, FWT GmbH. The success of wind power is part of a general global trend towards renewable energy, as presented in REN21’s Global Status Report 2014, a summary of which you will find here as well. In addition, country reports from Japan and Cuba illustrate the prospects of these two quite diverse markets. However, both countries still have quite a lot in common, as both are island states without major fossil resources, and so are well placed to benefit from ongoing improvements in the wind energy sector.
With best wishes Stefan Gsänger Secretary General of WWEA
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Contents ISSUE 3 June 2014
Published by World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) Produced by Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA)
Editorial Committee Editor-in-Chief: Stefan Gsänger Associate Editor-in-Chief: Shi Pengfei Paul Gipe Jami Hossain Editors: Martina Hinkova Shane Mulligan Yu Guiyong Visual Design: Jing Ying
Contact Martina Bachvarova mb@wwindea.org Tel. +49-228-369 40-80 Fax +49-228-369 40-84 WWEA Head Office Charles-de-Gaulle-Str. 5, 53113 Bonn, Germany A detailed supplier listing and other information can be found at www.wwindea.org
01 From the Editor
News Analysis 04 G20 Meeting in Brisbane:Global Wind Energy Infrastructure Development 06 WWEA welcomes 600th member:FWT energy GmbH
Research 08 Introducing competitive bidding processes for renewable energy plants – will it be worth it?
Report
Yu Guiyong
14 WWEA half-year report 2014
yugy@cwea.org.cn
20 Global Renewable Energy Generation Capacity
Tel. +86-10-5979 6665
Jumps to Record Level
Fax +86-10-6422 8215
Regional Focus
CWEA Secretariat
26 Future perspective and current status of
28 N. 3rd Ring Road E., Beijing, P. R. China A detailed supplier listing and
wind energy in Japan after Fukushima 34 The Cuban policy for the prospective
other information can be found at
development of renewable energy
www.cwea.org.cn
resources 2014-2030
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Hosted by:
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Israeli Wind Energy Association
האגודה הישראלית לאנרגית רוח
14 th World Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition Innovation for 100% Renewable Energy In Harmony with the Environment
SAVE THE DATE 26-28 October, 2015 – Jerusalem, Israel w w w. wo r l d w i n d c o n f . n e t
Organized by
Paragon Group
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News Analysis
ISSUE 3 June 2014
G20 Meeting in Brisbane: Global Wind Energy Infrastructure Development He Dexin
The issues of increasing
greenhouse gas emissions, air
pollution, climate change and energy
shortage have seriously impacted the global ecological environment and
the sustainable development of social economy. Speeding up the global
energy transformation, increasing investment in new clean and
renewable energy supplies, promoting environmental improvement, and
transforming energy consumption
patterns, have become common goals among countries around the world.
years, and the global newly installed
to resolving many of these challenges.
the wind power markets of some
pollution, or nuclear contamination,
wind power capacity was 35.5GW –
25.5% lower than in 2012. But while OECD countries have slowed down, they are still growing fast in some
other countries, in particular in China
and India. In addition, some emerging wind power markets are coming up, especially in Latin America, such as Brazil and Mexico as well as some
African countries, such as South Africa and Egypt.
We can observe, then, that the
According to statistics from
world wind power market is changing.
developed in 103 countries around the
nuclear energy has partially impeded
WWEA, by the end of 2013 wind power generation was being commercially world. The total global wind power capacity has reached 318.529GW, of which the total wind energy
capacity in Asia and Europe account for around 110 GW each. Today the total global wind energy capacity
accounts for about 4% of the global electricity supply, and Europe has
a higher proportion of wind power
In the industrialised countries, the
development trend of fossil energy and the deployment of wind power. In
June of 2014, an IRENA report put
forward that the largest portion of the investment in global energy supply is
still related to fossil fuels. At the same time, wind power is booming in some developing and emerging countries.
Considering the current state of
in the whole power structure, with
the world, many of the most pressing
new investment in wind turbines in
wind power, together with the other
Denmark, Spain, and Portugal at 34%, 21% and 20% respectively. However, 2013 was at its lowest level in five 4
challenges mankind is facing are
related to energy utilisation, and
renewable energies, is offering the key
Without taking into account
externalities like climate change, air when we compare new energy
investments, wind power is today the
cheapest option to generate electricity; the cost of wind power is cheaper
than that of gas, oil, coal and nuclear power. This economic advantage has been recognised by many
scientists and economists for some time, and by an increasing number of governments and authoritative
international organisations such as
IRENA. Therefore, the development and utilization of wind power has
taken a very important place in the
global energy revolution. On August
1st this year, the German government has started conducting The German
Renewable Energy Act (amendment) (EEG2014). In July of this year, the
EU decided to invest 1 billion Euros
to develop clean energy projects, and
also some countries are making plans for developing a high proportion of
renewable energy. According to the forecast from BTM, from 2014 to
2018, wind power development will
maintain a compound annual growth rate of 4%, and the total global wind power installed capacity in 2018 is
News Analysis
ISSUE 3 June 2014
set to reach 572GW. According to
Second, wind power is an
the forecast of IEA, by 2035, global
important component of energy
2930GW, and wind energy and solar
economic and social development,
energy will increase by 5660GW, of
which, renewable energy will increase energy will make up 64% in total. The World Wind Energy
Association (WWEA) was founded as an international non-profit
organization in 2001. Headquartered in Bonn, Germany, it now has 550
members from 104 countries. Each
system in the future, it will generate more and more positive impacts on
such as providing job opportunities, developing the local manufacturing
and improving climate environment,
etc., and governments should continue to increase the wind power support in the period of economic slowdown.
Third, wind energy utilization is
common goals of all mankind, and
governments have the responsibility
to upgrade the public’s understanding about renewable energy utilization. We should further strengthen international exchange and
cooperation in the field of wind energy. The developed countries especially should actively support technical
progress and capacity building in the developing countries.
WWEA suggests that the G20,
year, WWEA holds the annual World
a kind of systematic engineering, and
for the benefit of their countries and
information network to provide
included into the whole energy system.
programme which supports the
Wind Energy Conference (WWEC) in a different country, building its technical support and consulting
services. WWEA also establishes sound wind energy development policy
frameworks and encourages technical developments and so plays an active
role for pushing the growth of world wind energy development.
At present, the sustainable
development of global wind energy
still faces some important constraining factors, the joint efforts of all countries
are needed to cope with these. Here we have some suggestions:
First, governments should
provide a stable policy environment and supporting regulations for
developing renewable energy so as
to avoid the obstacles to wind power
technology and industry development.
the application of wind energy should be planned and implemented and
Continuously improve the power grid
and support facilities’ accommodation capacity to renewable energies and wind power’s quality and decrease wind power cost.
The third industrial revolution
should take the following points as
the core issues: continual distributed renewable energy development; and
smart grid construction. At the same time as exploring the development
of the whole world, should agree on a global renewable energy investment
integrated utilisation of wind power. Such a programme could not only help to achieve the aims of the
Millennium Development Goals and the UN Sustainable Energy for All
programmes, but could also pave the way for an effective global climate agreement. It also could provide a
powerful economic boost for today’s global economic situation.
Acknowledgements: We would
mode, more powerful support
like to express our heartfelt thanks to
innovation and market mechanisms to
materials for this article.
measures also need to be created
in order to use energy technology
drive the sustainable development of wind power.
Fourth, utilizing wind energy
and protecting the earth are the
the staff from CWEA and WWEA for providing me many valuable related
(He Dexin,President Emeritus
of WWEA and Research Professor of CWEA.This Article is Prof.He's
contribution for the G20 meeting.) 5
News Analysis
ISSUE 3 June 2014
WWEA welcomes 600th member: FWT energy GmbH WWEA is still continuously growing, in spite of slow down of the world market for wind turbines
Founded in the year 2001, the
World Wind Energy Association
has been continuously growing and
represents today a very big network
of members in 104 countries. WWEA’s member associations represent again more than 50’000 members. WWEA has recently been able to welcome
its 600th direct member: The wind
turbine company FWT energy GmbH
& Co. KG, holding company of the new group with its operative companies
FWT Service GmbH, FWT Production GmbH and FWT trade GmbH, based in Waigandshain, Germany. FWT is
focusing on wind turbine O&M, turbine production, and related services,
employing today close to 100 people.
WWEA President He Dexin: “We are very pleased to welcome FWT as our
600th member. The company represents very well the dynamic and international wind sector: Although it was founded only in 2013, its roots are going back more than 25 years and it is active on several continents. We look very much forward to working closely with FWT, together with all our members, in supporting
the growth of the wind sector all over the world. WWEA is advising national
governments and international organizations on wind deployment policies, and
having such companies as our members makes our expertise even more based on practical experience and facts. The success of FWT demonstrates that still today new companies have great prospects on the wind market, given they follow the right strategies."
Photo:Gao Shifeng
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
News Analysis
WWEA Secretary General Stefan Gsänger: “We cordially welcome FWT
as new corporate member! This dynamic company fits perfectly to our broad
existing network of national associations and companies from the different wind
branches. We are especially proud that our members can equally be found in new and emerging wind markets, in particular in developing countries, but also in
the well-established markets in Europe or Asia. We will continue to support our
members from the different parts of the world to find new partners, to intensify international interaction and cooperation, and to jointly work for increasing the
share of wind power and renewable energy in the global energy supply. FWT is a perfect partner for this!”
About FWT energy GmbH The roots of the new player in windbusiness, FWT, are closely linked with Fuhrländer AG. After insolvency of Fuhrländer AG licensees and customers of Fuhrländer were concerned about the purchase and delivery of major components for turbines and production, since delivery by Fuhrländer was stopped. That was the start of FWT Trade, which was founded as trading company in order to deliver licensees (therefore the company name FWT Trade GmbH). In the meantime the scope of works offered by FWT trade comprises a wide range of solutions in purchase, logistics and trading with components. In February 2013, FWT started with service activities, customized service and maintenance of turbines (FWT Service). Finally the company started with the production of the first new wind turbine (FWT Production) in June 2013. The actual product family comprising wind turbines of the multi-megawatt-class of 2.0, 2.5 and 3 MW. “Many offer service & maintenance – FWT goes one step further!” – According to this motto FWT is placed on the wind power-market, while being located on the former company grounds of Fuhrländer AG in Waigandshain. In the field of maintenance, FWT Service offers everything desired by operators: rotor blade service, endoscopy of transmission gears, maintenance of inverters, tower inspection, provision of lifts and much more. FWT is active in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain, India, USA, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Iran and China. Currently 22 turbines (FWT 2000) are being delivered for the first wind project in Kazachztan, a flagship project of Expo 2017 in Astana.
7
Research
Introducing competitive bidding processes for renewable energy plants
will it be worth it? Eva Hauser, IZES gGmbH, hauser@izes.de
The introduction of auctions for renewable
energy procurement, foreseen by the European Commission (in its “Guidelines on State aid for
environmental protection and energy 2014-2020”
• First, the supposedly higher (static) economic
1
)to begin from 2017,will mark an important policy change for many member states. 2
The European Commission’s objectives
in publishing these new guidelines include
strengthening “the internal market, promoting
more effectiveness in public spending through a
better contribution of State aid to the objectives of
tariffs,
• second, a more targeted controllability of
renewable energy expansion and
• third, the conviction that decisions on the
financing of renewable energies would be taken
more neutrally by ‘the market' than by politicians or by the administration charged with this task.
In general, all newly built renewable energy
common interest, greater scrutiny on the incentive
plants should only receive ‘aid’ via a competitive
aid on competition and trade.” (Guidelines, para.12).
(cf. Guidelines, para.126) and they may be restricted
effect, on limiting the aid to the minimum necessary, and on avoiding the potential negative effects of the In general, proponents of tenders give three
main reasons for the favourability of auctions in
comparison with other instruments employed to finance the expansion of renewable energies: 8
efficiency compared to the administrative setting of
bidding processes, but different exceptions may be
applied: they can be limited to specific technologies to plants whose installed capacity is lower than
1 MW or, for wind energy, not exceeding 6 MW or 6 generation units. Furthermore, the European Commission already defines (in Guidelines,
Research
para.126) three possible exceptions to this
general rule, each depending on member states demonstrating that:
• only one or a very limited number of projects
or sites would be eligible,
• a competitive bidding process would lead
to higher support levels (for example by strategic bidding) or
• a competitive bidding process would result
in low project realisation rates (as a consequence of underbidding).
These exemptions show that the European
Commission itself seems to be aware that
competitive bidding processes may not always lead to lowering prices or to high project realisation
rates. Therefore, it is quite interesting to look at other countries where auctions for renewable energies have already been introduced.
In a recent study about auctions for wind
turbines, we took a closer look at whether and
to what degree expectations have been fulfilled in some European and non-European states
that useauctions to determine the amount of
remuneration tariffs or the number/ capacity of
wind turbines being installed.
Having considered the recent examples of
the Netherlands, Italy, South Africa and Brazil, we observethere is no uniform picture of auctions leading to lower remuneration tariffs for wind turbines.
Generally, it is not advisable to directly
compare the prices that have been determined in
auctions across countries. These prices depend on
many different factors like wind conditions, interest rates, costs of grid connection, accessibility of plant sites, costs of authorisation procedures, possible
compensations for inflation,and also on the delay
between the deposal of the bids and the start of the operation of a wind power plant.
There is another point that needs to be taken
into account when examining auction results:
Feed-in-tariffs may be determined following an
annual regression path which can vary according to a regional pattern, i.e. to wind conditions. For
example, Germany (like other countries) applies a bandwidth of tariffs according to the so called ‘reference yield model’. Assuming the recently
adopted EEG 2014 with its regression path and
Figure 1 Weighted average auction results for wind turbines since 2009 [in R$/MWh]
9
Research
a future inflation rate of 2 % over the twenty
while the quota system was applied before the
with a commissioning date in 2016 will receive
roughly 85 – 90€/ MWh in this year’s auction round.
years of guaranteed payments for electricity fed
into the grid, wind turbines installed in Germany
revenues ranging from 46 €/MWh up to69 €/MWh (discounted values). This represents a bandwidth
between the most and the least profitable location in absolute terms of 23 €/MWh, or about50 %.
In those countries where the remuneration
tariff has been fixed in auctions (with the exception of the Netherlands, where a different auction
mechanism applies, see below), prices went down during the first two or three auction rounds; in Brazil, where the tendering system has been in
place for a longer period, a subsequent increase of the prices can be observed:
• Due to technology-neutral tendering in the
Netherlands with sequential bidding windows, in which the market premium is augmented in each sequence (taking place roughly every 6 weeks
except during summer time), a direct comparison
is not possible. In the Dutch auctions, it is thus not the remuneration level that is determined, but the capacity that may be realised with the available amount of money.
• In the first two bidding rounds in 2012
and 2013 in Italy, the tariff fell from 140 €/ MWh
introduction of auctions to approximately 108 €/
MWhin the second round and to tariffs ranging from The auction result list shows that six among the
fifteen bidders admitted in 2014 had participated
in the 2013 round.This may have enabled them to lower their bid prices, as parts of the necessary
project development or authorisation costs had already been paid in 2013.
• In contrast, in Brazil, where some eleven
auctions have taken place since 2009, the prices have tended to go up since December 2012 (see
Figure 1). It is worth noting that in Brazil there is a compensation for inflation (based upon annual
price indexes), which offers wind turbine operators an annually adjusted remuneration starting from the commissioning date.
• In South Africa, the average of the first
onshore wind auction results in 2011 was nominally 1.143 South African Rand. In the last completed bid window, in April 2013, the average revenue fell to
737 South African Rand. The bid phase of the fourth round is completed; its preferred bidders are to be published at the end of 2014.
These results are quite interesting from
another point of view: wind energy auctions in
Figure 2 Shares of wind turbine producers in the three past bid windows
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Research
Figure 3 Shares of developers in the three past bid windows
South Africa until now led to a narrowing of the
number of successful turbine manufacturers and
project developers during the first three auctions. While there were rather equal shares of five
with the regression paths generally pursued when using feed-in-tariffs.
The same applies to implementation rates, i.e.
manufacturers who were successful in the first
the de facto construction and commissioning of the
50% of the allocated capacity. In the third round,
years ago (2009 in Brazil, 2011 in the Netherlands
bid window, only three bidders won in the second
round – with one manufacturer winning more than
four bidders were successful, but two received only a minor share (see Figure 2). When looking at the successful developers, the market concentration
becomes even more visible. In each of bid windows 2 and 3, there was one developer that received
nearly half of the contracted volumes (see Figure 3). This raises the question whether auctions lead to
oligopolistic structures that undermine competition and finally lead to higher support levels (as
stipulated in the European Commission’s energy aid guidelines).
The example of Brazil - being the only country
with more than six years of experience from eleven auction rounds - shows in fact that auctions do not necessarily achieve a continuous tariff reduction.
It is worth noting that there is little long-term
experience in the countries currently working with
renewables’ auctions that would allow a comparison
wind turbines contracted during the auctions. As the auction schemes have only been introduced a few
and South Africa, 2012 in Italy)and considering the specific challenges and procedures of wind turbine construction, it is too early for a final appreciation of implementation rates reached with auctions. Nonetheless, the results of an intermediate evaluation are rather disappointing.
• In the Republic of South Africa, only two
out of the eight wind farms contracted in 2011 are in operation in June 2014. The remaining six are
announced to be operational by the end of 2014.
• In the Netherlands, eleven wind parks were
contracted in 2011. Eight of them have become
operational by February 2014,meaningthat one quarter has not (yet) been realised. In 2012, only one single installation succeeded in the
auction,which was subsequently completed. It will thus be interesting to follow possible changes of
the implementation rate of former years and of the 11
Research
projects decided upon in 2013.
necessary system of penalties can be designed. In
1.700 MW of wind turbines stemming from auctions
the auction, the bonds are then refunded when the
• An evaluation of the Brazilian experience will
also take some more time as – by April 2014 – some are in operation, while more than 10.000 MW have been auctioned since 2009 (2010: 593 MW; 2011: 2966 MW; 2012: 289 MW und 2013: 4710 MW).
When speaking in sheer numbers, only the capacity auctioned in 2009 has been installed– with roughly a five-years time lapse. It would therefore be worth tracing each wind park contracted since 2009 and
whether it has been constructed or not. Of those not built, it would be useful to trace the reasons for this as they could either be related to problems of grid
connection, grid deficiencies, or underbidding in the auction or others.
For a meaningful evaluation of auctions as
a means to steer the expansion of renewables
in a (more) targeted way, it will benecessary to observe several complete construction cycles.
Only a medium-term analysis can show whether
auctions are a successful instrument to achieve the
asked to submit bid bonds when participating in
plants go into operation on time. As shown by the examples of England/Wales and Ireland, which
applied auctions in the 1990s and at the beginning of the last decade, tendering systems without an
effective control of the bidders’ seriousness lead to
very low realisation rates (~ 20%). On the one hand,
bid bonds and penalties should not form an obstacle for smaller players (co-operatives or SMEs), but on
the other hand they are necessary for the evaluation of the soundness of the bidder and the seriousness of their proposals. To this end, further studies are needed to investigate the effect of bid bonds on
different types of bidders, and the real enforcement of penalties in auction systems in detail, since
this topic is (despite the recognised slippages and delays) currently only poorly understood.
Finally, when introducing tenders,political
goals set up in the EU member states following to
decision-makers need to ensure that their system
exceptions to the rule of generalised auction
efficiency’. This means that auctions should also
the renewables directive 2009/73/EC, as possible low project realisation ratesmay be seen tojustify procedures.
The possibility of low realisation rates leads
to another issue that deserves the attention of
decision-makers and the specialist community
concerned with renewables’ tendering systems. Two main issues that need to be addressed are:
• First, how should the regulating bodies deal
with possible non-fulfilment of contracts that are issued? One strategy to ensure renewable goals
are reached could then be to auction capacity that includes a buffer, thereby exceeding the political
targets. If so, the question is whether there would
be enough suitable project prospects to still enable sufficient competition during several auction rounds?
• Second, there is the question of how a
12
the current tendering systems, bidders are usually
does not only procure static efficiency (lowering
prices per megawatthour), but also the ‘dynamic
contribute to the different challenges raised by an
increasing use of renewable energy in the context of the overallenergy system transformation. Some of the issues concerned are:
• a successful technological development of the
renewable energy technologies;
• the grid and system integration of renewable
energy (including the provision of ancillary services);
• a systemically favourable regional
distribution of new renewable plants (to maintain a nation-wide (even Europe-wide) balance of investments and security of supply);and
• widely accepted rules regarding the distances
to residential areas or for dealing with forest
sites and conservation issues, to ensure public
Research
acceptance of the technology.
substantial trade-offs between the political
described above for a successful auction design
there has been no case of a renewable tendering
It becomes obvious that the requirements
weaken one of the claimed motivations for tenders: the transfer of responsibility over administrative determinations from politicians to the 'neutral'
market. Even if auctions help politicians to dispose of the task of fixing the feed-in-tariff rates, this
happens at the cost of even more requirements
imposed to the regulator or auctioneer,which must be satisfied in order todevelop a functional and
sustainable auction design – not to mention that
many tendering systems include a ceiling price that needs to be determined by the administration, just as with the previous feed-in-tariffs.
In conclusion, it may be stated that
international experience clearly demonstrates that renewable auction systems contain
goals of cost efficiency, high realisation rates and a high diversity of market actors. So far,
scheme in which these three goals have been simultaneously and convincingly achieved.
Therefore, it seems appropriate to intensively
monitor auction results in non-EU-countries, as well as in EU member states already using or
introducing tendering systems. In the meantime, it seems advisable
a) to widely use the exceptions concerning
‘small scale’ installations, i.e. renewable energy
plants in general with an installed capacity below
1 MW or wind energy projects up until 6 MW or 6 generation units and
b) to cautiously design and test tendering
mechanisms during several complete construction cycles - possibly starting with large plants and actors.
References:
1. The full text of the Guidelines (hereafter „Guidelines“) can be found at http://ec.europa.eu/competition/ sectors/energy/legislation_en.html 2. This article is based on three related studies (in German) of the IZES gGmbH on this topic. All references cited in this article may be found in these studies. Hauser, E./ Kochems, J.: Ausschreibungsmodelle für Wind Onshore: Erfahrungen im Ausland. Kurzstudie für den Bundesverband Windenergie, 2014, not yet published Grashof, K.: Herausforderungen bei Ausschreibungsverfahren für Onshore-Windenergie und PV, Anlage C zu IZES/BET/Prof. Bofinger, Stromsystem-Design: das EEG 2.0 und Eckpfeiler eines zukünftigen Regenerativwirtschaftsgesetzes, 2013, unter http://www.izes.de/cms/upload/pdf/EEG_2.0_Anlage_C_zum_ Endbericht_Ausschreibung_IZES.pdf und Hauser, E/ Weber, A./ Zipp, A./ Leprich, U.: Bewertung von Ausschreibungsverfahren als Finanzierungsmodell für Anlagen erneuerbarer Energienutzung. Bericht für den Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energien, 2014, unter http://bee-ev.de/Publikationen/IZES20140627IZESBEE_EE-Ausschreibungen.pdf
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Report
WWEA
half-year
report
ISSUE 3 June 2014
2014
Worldwide Wind Market recovered: Wind Capacity over 336 Gigawatts - 17,6 GW of new installations in the first half of 2014, after 14 GW in 2013 - Worldwide wind capacity has reached 336 GW - Asia overtakes Europe as leading wind continent - China close to 100 GW of installed capacity - Newcomer Brazil: third largest market for new wind turbines - 360 GW expected by end of 2014
The worldwide wind capacity
reached 336’327 MW by the end of
June 2014, out of which 17’613 MW
were added in the first six months of
2014. This increase is a substantially higher than in the first half of 2013 and 2012, when 13,9 GW and 16,4 GW were added respectively. The total worldwide installed wind
capacity by mid-2014 will generate 14
around 4 % of the world’s electricity
Reasons for the relatively positive
demand.
development of the worldwide wind
in the same period in 2013 and 7,3 %
increasing competitiveness relative
The global wind capacity grew
by 5,5% within six months (after 5 % in 2012) and by 13,5 % on an annual
basis (mid-2014 compared with mid2013). In comparison, the annual growth rate in 2013 was lower at 12,8 %.
markets certainly include the economic advantages of wind power and its
to other sources of electricity, as well as the pressing need to implement
emission free technologies in order to mitigate climate change and air pollution.
Report
ISSUE 3 June 2014
Top Wind Markets 2014: China, Germany, Brazil, India, and USA The five traditional wind
countries – China, USA, Germany, Spain
and India – still collectively represent a 72 % share of the global wind capacity. In terms of newly added capacity, the share of the Big Five has increased
turbine sales. With this, Brazil has
been able to extend its undisputed leadership in Latin America.
India kept clearly its position
as Asian number two and worldwide
number five, with 1,1 GW of new wind capacity.
The US market, after its effective
from 57 % to 62 %.
collapse in 2013, has shown strong
7,1 GW, substantially more than in the
(723 MW), Australia (699 MW) and
The Chinese market showed a
very strong performance and added
preceding years. China reached a total wind capacity of 98 GW in June 2014
and has undoubtedly by now crossed the 100 GW mark.
Germany performed strongly
as well, adding 1,8 GW within the
first half year. This new record no
doubt comes partly in anticipation
of changes in the renewable energy
signs of recovery, with a market size of 835 MW, slightly ahead of Canada
the United Kingdom which halved its market size and installed 649 MW in the first half of 2014.
The Spanish market, however, has
not contributed to the overall growth in 2014, as it has come to a virtual
standstill, with only 0,1 MW of new
installations in the first half of 2014. As was the case in 2013, four
legislation, which may lead to a slow-
countries installed more than 1 GW
For the first time, Brazil has
(1,8 GW), Brazil (1,3 GW) and India
down of the German market in the coming years.
entered the top group by becoming
the third largest market for new wind
turbines, with 1,3 GW of new capacity representing 7 % of all new wind
each in the first half of 2014: China
(7,1 GW of new capacity), Germany (1,1 GW).
The top ten wind countries
show a similar picture in the first
half of 2014, although on a slightly
higher performance basis. Five
countries performed stronger than in 2013: China, USA, Germany, France and Canada. Five countries saw a
decreasing market: Spain, UK, Italy, Denmark and, to a lesser degree,
India. Spain and Italy saw practically a total standstill, with only 0,1 MW and 30 MW respectively of new capacity
installed. Poland is now in the list of
top 15 countries by installed capacity while Japan dropped out.
Dynamic Markets to be found on all Continents It is important to note that for the
first time, the most dynamic markets are found on all continents: the ten
largest markets for new wind turbines, next to China, India and Germany,
included Brazil (1’301 MW), USA (835 MW), Canada (723 MW), Australia
(699 MW), UK (649 MW), Sweden (354 MW) and Poland (337 MW). New wind
farms have also been installed in South Africa and further African countries, so that this continent has obviously
entered the race to catch up with the rest of the world.
Figure 1 Total Installed Capacity 2011-2014 [MW]
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
Asia: The new leader on total
Indian wind market has very positive
declines in new capacity installed, to
installed capacity, Asia is now the
Japan and Korea, are still growing at
Europe will also depend on decisions
accounts for 36,7 %.
in both countries the nuclear lobby
installed capacity With 36,9 % of the global
continent with the most wind energy installed, surpassing Europe, which Again in 2014, China has been
by far the largest single wind market, adding 7,1 GW in six months; this
is significantly more than the same
prospects.
Two other important markets, in
very modest rates of less than 2 % in the first half of 2014. Unfortunately has still managed to prevent the
breakthrough for wind power, despite the clear economic and industrial advantages.
period of the previous year, when 5,5
Europe
wind turbines. By June 2013, China
number one wind market in Europe,
mark. India added 1,1 GW, a bit less
new), Sweden (354 MW new) and
GW were erected. China accounted
for 41 % of the world market for new had an overall installed capacity of
98,6 GW, almost reaching the 100 GW
than in the first half of 2013. However, considering new and ambitious plans of the new Indian government, the
Germany is still the unchallenged
with a new capacity of 1,8 GW bringing it to a total of 36,5 GW. UK (649 MW
France (338 MW new) belong to the
five biggest European markets as well, while Spain and Italy saw dramatic
almost zero.
The future of wind power in the
by the European Union regarding
renewable energy targets for 2030. It
is worth noting that the current crisis
around Ukraine is in fact strengthening the case of renewable energy
proponents, as it suggests that the
European countries should increase their energy autonomy through the
increased use of domestic renewable
energy sources, rather than relying on imported fossil fuels.
North America
The US market has recovered
from the dramatic slump in the
second half of 2013, adding 835 MW between January and June 2014,
compared to 1,6 MW in the same
period last year. It is expected that,
due to the improved competitiveness of wind power and its increasing support, the market will further
recover in the second half of 2014 and continue in 2015.
Canada installed 723 MW during
the first half of 2014, 92 % more
than in the same period of 2013, and has become the sixth largest market for new wind turbines worldwide. The victory of the pro-renewables
proponents in the elections in the key province of Ontario gives hope that
this positive tendency will continue, in spite of rather negative signals at the Figure 2 New Installed Capacity H1 2014 New Installed Capacity H1 2014: 17’613 MW
16
federal level.
Latin America The biggest Latin American
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
market, Brazil, has become the 13th
registered in New Zealand.
largest wind power user worldwide,
Worldwide prospects for end of
after installing 1,3 GW in the first half
the year 2014 and beyond
of 2014 and reaching a total capacity of 4,7 GW. With a most impressive
In the second half of 2014, it is
growth rate of 38,2 % during the first
expected that an additional capacity
half of 2014, the country has become
of 24 GW will be erected worldwide,
the third largest market for new wind
which would bring new installations
turbines, after China and Germany,
for the year to 41 GW. The total
and ahead of the US and India. Brazil
installed wind capacity is expected
is expected to reach the 5 GW mark by
to reach 360 GW by the end of 2014,
September 2014 and to enter the list
of top 10 countries with more installed capacity by the end of 2014. Other
Latin American countries are emerging
which is enough to provide some 4 % Photo:Jun Wei
as wind markets as well, though at a much more modest level.
Oceania
Positive developments happened in
Australia, where an additional 699 MW
was installed, representing a 23% growth in comparison with end of 2013, similar
to the rate of growth in 2011 and 2012.
However, due to the most recent and very dramatic switch of the new Australian
government, it has to be expected that
this boom will not continue in the near future. No new wind farms have been
of the global electricity demand.
The mid-term prospects for wind
power investment remain positive.
Although it is not clear whether the world community will be able to
reach a strong climate agreement in 2015, wind has now reached a level of competitiveness and reliability,
which makes it a natural option for
governments, electricity producers, and consumers around the world.
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Photo:Xia Weixiong
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
Global renewable energy generation capacity jumps to record level Christine Lins, Executive Secretary, REN21
The evolution of renewable
energy over the past decade has
surpassed all expectations. Global installed capacity and production
from all renewable technologies have
projected levels of renewable energy
for 2020 that were already surpassed by 2010.
Today, governments are
increased substantially; costs for
increasingly aware of the potential
have continued to spread throughout
primary objective of developing a
most technologies have decreased
significantly; and supporting policies the world.
Developments in the early 2000s
showed upwards trends in global
renewable energy investment, capacity, and integration across all sectors; yet most mainstream projections did not
predict the extraordinary expansion of renewables that was to unfold in the
coming decade. Numerous scenarios 20
impacts of renewable energy on
national development. While the
renewable energy sector is often to
maintain or expand energy services, the far-reaching impact of these
technologies adds further value to their use: reducing the health and
environmental impacts of energy use,
mitigating climate impacts, improving educational opportunities, creating
jobs, reducing poverty, and increasing gender equality.
Global perceptions of renewable
energy have shifted considerably
since 2004. Over the last 10 years, continuing technology advances and rapid deployment of many
renewable energy technologies have
demonstrated that their potential can be achieved. Renewables advanced
further towards realising that potential in 2013.
Continued Renewable Energy Growth By the end of 2013, global
renewable power capacity exceeded 1,560 gigawatts (GW), equalling an
8.3% increase over 2012. Hydropower rose by 4% to approximately 1,000
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
renewables accounted for the majority of new capacity for the sixth year running.
China, the United States, Brazil,
Canada, and Germany remained the top countries for total installed renewable power capacity; leading countries for non-hydro capacity were China, the Figure 1 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, End 2013
United States, and Germany, followed
by Spain, Italy, and India. China’s new renewable power capacity surpassed
new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity for the first time.
In the heating and cooling sector,
trends included the increasing use of renewables in combined heat
and power plants; the feeding of
renewable heating and cooling into
district systems; hybrid solutions in the building renovation sector; and
the growing use of renewable heat for
industrial purposes. Heat from modern Figure 2 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, End 2013
biomass, solar and geothermal sources accounts for a small but gradually rising share of final global heat
demand, amounting to an estimated 10%. The use of modern renewable
technologies for heating and cooling is still limited relative to their vast potential.
GW, accounting for about one-third
and investment in renewable energy
collectively grew nearly 17% to an
renewables have accounted for a
been uneven in recent years, but their
2013, renewables made up more that
global transport fuel demand. In 2013,
of renewable power capacity added during the year. Other renewables
estimated 560 GW. For the first time, more solar PV than wind power
capacity was added worldwide. Overall renewables accounted for more than 56% of net additions.
Around the world, policy support
have continued to focus primarily on the electricity sector. Consequently,
growing share of electric generation
capacity added globally each year. In
56% of net additions to global power capacity and represented far higher shares of capacity added in several
countries around the world. In the EU,
The growth of liquid biofuels has
production and use increased in 2013. Liquid biofuels provide about 2.3% of global production rose by 7.7 billion
litres to reach 116.6 billion litres. New plants for making advanced biofuels, produced from non-food biomass
21
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
feedstocks, were commissioned in
Europe and North America. However,
overall investment in new biofuel plant capacity continued to decline from its 2007 peak.
The combined modern and
traditional renewable energy share in final energy consumption remained at19 %, about level with 2011, even as the share of modern renewables
Figure 3 Wind Power Total World Capacity, 2000-2013
increased. This is because the rapid
growth in modern renewable energy
is tempered by both a slow migration away from traditional biomass and a continued rise in total global energy demand.
Status of Wind Power More than 35 GW of wind power
capacity was added in 2013, bringing the global total above 318 GW.
Following several record years, the
wind power market declined nearly
10 GW compared to 2012, reflecting primarily a steep drop in the U.S.
Figure 4 Wind Power Capacity and Additions, Top 10 countries, 2013
market.
The top 10 countries accounted
for 85% of year-end global capacity,
but there are dynamic and emerging markets in all regions. By the end of
2013, at least 85 countries had seen commercial wind activity, while at least 71 had more than 10 MW of
reported capacity by year’s end, and
24 had more than 1 GW in operation. Annual growth rates of cumulative
wind power capacity have averaged 21.4% since the end of 2008, and
global capacity has increased eightfold 22
Figure 5 Market Shares of Top 10 Wind Turbine Manufactures, 2013
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
over the past decade. Asia remained the largest market for the sixth
consecutive year, accounting for almost 52% of added capacity, followed by the EU (about 32%) and North America
(less than 8%). Non-OECD countries were responsible for the majority of installations
Offshore wind is still small
compared with global onshore
capacity, but it is growing rapidly.
A record 1.6 GW was added to the
Figure 6 Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, by Region, 2004-2013
world’s grids for a total exceeding 7
GW in 14 countries by year’s end. More than 93% of total capacity was located off Europe, which added 1,567 MW to the grid for a total of 6,562 MW in 11 countries.
Increased Policy Support and Shifting Investments Supporting policies clearly
played a central role in driving global renewable energy capacity to a new record level last year. The number
Figure 7 Jobs in Renewable Energy
of emerging economy nations with policies in place to support the
expansion of renewable energy has
surged more than six-fold in just eight
years, from 15 developing countries in 2005 to 95 early this year.
These 95 developing nations
today make up the vast majority of the 144 countries with renewable energy support policies and targets in place.
This rise in developing-world support contrasts with declining support and renewablespolicy uncertainty (and
even retroactive support reductions)
elsewhere in the world.
2011.
continuing technological advances,
decline in investment—after several
increasingly affordable for a broader
Europe and the United States, and to
Robust policies coupled with
falling prices, and innovations in
financing have made renewables
range of consumers worldwide. Global new investment in renewable power
and fuels was at least USD 249.4 billion in 2013, down 14% relative to 2012
and 23% lower than the record level in
The second consecutive year of
years of growth—was due in part to
uncertainty over incentive policies in retroactive reductions in support in
some countries. Europe’s investment
was down 44% from 2012, and for the first time ever, China alone invested more in renewable energy than all
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
of Europe combined. The year 2013
level; for example, Canada, Chile,
energy investment in developing
their investment in 2013. Despite the
also saw an interruption to the eight
consecutive years of rising renewable countries.
Lower costs and efficiency
improvements made it possible to build onshore wind and solar PV
installations in a number of locations around the world in 2013 without
subsidy support. Considering only net investment in new power capacity,
renewables outpaced fossil fuels for the fourth year running.
Even with the overall downward
trend in world investment, there were significant exceptions at the country
24
Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Uruguay all increased
overall decline in China’s investment, for the first time ever China invested more in renewable energy than did
all of Europe combined. Moreover, it invested more in renewable power capacity than in fossil fuels. The impacts of these
developments on employment numbers in the renewable energy sector have
varied by country and technology, but,
globally, the number of people working in renewable industries has continued
to rise. An estimated 6.5 million people worldwide work directly or indirectly
in the sector.
Conclusion The past decade has set the
wheels in motion for a global transition to renewables, but a concerted and
sustained effort is needed to achieve
it. With increasingly ambitious targets and innovative policies, renewables
can continue to surpass expectations and create a clean energy future. As
this year’s GSR clearly demonstrates, the question is no longer whether
renewables have a role to play in the
provision of energy services, but rather how we can best increase the current pace to achieve a 100% renewables
future with full energy access for all.
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
About the GSR First released in 2005, the annual Renewables Global Status Report provides a comprehensive and timely overview of renewable energy markets, industries, investments, and policy developments worldwide. It enables policymakers, industry, investors, and civil society to make informed decisions. The report covers recent developments, current status, and key trends on all renewable technologies and end-use sectors. By design, it does not provide analysis or forecast. The Renewables Global Status Report relies on up-to-date renewable energy data, provided by an international network of more than 500 contributors, researchers, and authors. www.ren21.net/gsr
Photo:Yang Zhicheng
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Future perspective and current status of wind energy in Japan after Fukushima Hironao Matsubara Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies(ISEP), Japan http://www.isep.or.jp/en
Introduction The severe nuclear disaster at Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear power plant, following a
huge earthquake and the massive tsunami on March 11th, 2011, has highlighted the
controversy over the safety of nuclear power
plants. Uncertainty about the significant risks of nuclear power, along with issues of energy security, climate change, and economy, have caused a fundamental reconsideration of
reached 88% in FY2013, compared with
under 1% nuclear power generation and
10% renewable energy, including large hydro. Additionally, despite Japan’s current major
reliance on fossil fuels, the highly probable rise
in prices for fossil fuels will force us to alter the existing energy policy toward one based on the renewable energy.
In these circumstances, the “New Energy
energy efficiency, renewable energy, electrical
Basic Plan” was decided by the Cabinet in
smart grids.
fact provided ardent support for expanding
liberalization, unbundling transmission and demand-side management(DSM), including
Although occasionally there have been
calls for the expanded utilization of renewable energy, the amount introduced in Japan is still only about 10% of total generated electricity,
including the large size hydro power facilities as shown in Fig.1. Furthermore, the status
of Japan’s energy mix, and especially nuclear power generation, has changed completely
after the disaster at Fukushima. The portion 26
of thermal power generation from fossil fuel
April 2014 as a result of intense debate after Fukushima [1]. The government plan has in renewable energy, but has unfortunately
not presented any concrete ideas as to how this will be achieved in the medium to long
term. On the other hand, the circumstances
surrounding the renewable energy industry
have changed dramatically since Fukushima, and the environment for the strong growth of renewable technology is becoming ever
more favorable. The year 2012 was positioned as the first year for great renewable energy
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Figure 1 Trends of power generation in Japan Source: METI, ISEP
expansion, and 2013 has already witnessed
some improvements in the adoption of green
technology, though some problems are still to be overcome.
The building of strategies and
organizations with the goal of introducing
renewable energy has commenced in many regions across Japan. These organizations
have added to the recognition and importance of renewable energy.The drive toward more renewable energy is especially high in the
Tohoku region, which includes the Fukushima
area, where authorities aim to utilize renewable energy to revitalize the economy. Various
projects are already underway, including the concept of community power which utilizes
the participation of local resources including
firms, people, and energy sources. In February 2014, the International Community Power
Conference was conducted in various locations inside Fukushima prefecture [2].The main
topic of the discussion was the possibility of
achieving100% reliance on renewable energy in an economy led by local companies and actors.
Perspectives on the renewable energy policies of Japan Following the Fukushima nuclear
accident in 2011, the status of renewable energy in Japan has begun to change
significantly. In 2013, a dramatic increase
in the use of renewable energy in the power sector, especially solar power, is expected to follow the introduction of the feed-in
tariffs, as shown in Fig.2. Other renewable
energies such as wind energy have several issues caused by excessive regulations or limitation of power system. The current
status of renewable energy policies such as
feed-in tariffs in Japan’s power sector is being investigated, and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) proposes wide
disclosure of the results [3]. Additionally, the
status of renewable energies is summarized annually in the “Renewables Japan Status
Report 2014” [4], a private initiative by the
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies(ISEP)
model after the Global Status Report produced by REN21[5].
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Fig.3 shows annual power generation
by renewables each year, with data partly
estimated based on the cumulative installed capacity and the capacity factor of each
renewable energy source, excluding large hydro. However, since FY2013, aggregate
data on power generation can be obtained
from statistical data collected by the utilities. The amount of total power generation by
renewable energy source, excluding large
hydro, climbed to over 4.7%, and the growth
rate has reached 15% annually, while the total
generated electricity in 2013 was estimated to be 1103TWh, or almost the same as the
previous year. Photovoltaics have grown at a significant pace of 83% annually, but the
sluggishness of wind turbines (7%) compared to installation figures in other countries
demonstrates the lack of progress made in
wind power expansion.Fig.4 shows ratios of power generation from all kinds of energy
sources, including private electric generation in Japan. The ratio of thermal power generation
from fossil fuel reaches 88% in FY2013, which
Figure 2 Cumulative capacity of renewable power generation in Japan Source: ISEP
Figure 3 Renewables Power Generation in Japan Source: ISEP
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Figure 4 Ratio of power generation in Japan Source: ISEP, METI
Table 1 New Tariffs for each technology and scale of the new project in FY2014 Solar PV
Wind
Geothermal
Capacity [kW]
<10
>=10
<20
>=20
Offshore
<15000
Tariffs [JPY]*1
37
32
55
22
36
40
26
Length [Years]
10
20
20
20
20
15
15
Small Hydro
>=15000
Biomass
>=200
>=1000
No limit
<1000
<30000
(depend on Fuel)
34(25) *2
29(21)
24(14)
13 – 39
20
20
20
20
Capacity [kW]
<200
Tariffs [JPY] *1 Length [Years]
*1: excluding consumption tax, *2: with existing channel
can be contrasted with under 1% from nuclear power generation and 11% from renewable energy, including large hydro.
The policy of FIT which will enable the
widespread use of renewable energy was
enacted by the National Diet in August 2011, and began as of July 2012. In order for this
FIT scheme to function effectively, however,
the appropriate purchase price and purchase period needed to be set. In March 2012, the
“Procurement Price Calculation Committee” was launched to discuss feasible purchase
prices and purchase periods. The final purchase prices and periods were subsequently decided
Source: METI
by the minister of METI. The price set for the newly implemented facilities in FY2014 was reached through the same process in March 2014 [6]. The purchase price of photovoltaic
energy was the only change in FIT prices, due to the falling costs of the technology. Tariffs
for new installations are revised every year
based on advice of the committee, as shown in Table.2. Tariffs for Solar PV over 10kW drop
to 32 in FY2014 from 36 JPY/kWh in FY2013.
New classifications and rates for offshore wind
and for small hydro were introduced in FY2014. The current FIT system started in July
2012, and reached a certified capacity of 30GW 29
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
by the end of 2013, and over 70GW by May
estimated at 16 TWh[3]. The latest economic
of 1990, which was around 13 GW. However,
[7]
[4]
2014, as shown in Fig.5 . This figure is 5 times
the size of the renewable generation capacity 96% of the certified capacity of facilities
were photovoltaic and 53% of them were
photovoltaic larger than or equal to 1 MW. The capacity of newly operating facilities is about 10GW, which is 15% of certified capacity. In
effect of the clean energy market in Japan is
about 3500 Billion Yen, as estimated by UNEP . Employment is estimated to be over 100
thousand[8], however a detailed estimation of
employment by renewable energy cannot be obtained in Japan yet.
These FIT policy rules were set except
contrast, the capacity of certified wind energy
for rules concerning "Priority Access", but the
existing wind facilities with capacity of about
with a non-functioning system. To fully
facilities is about 1â&#x20AC;&#x2122;123 MW, and 106 MW in newly operating by May 2014. In addition,
2â&#x20AC;&#x2122;528 MW were certified in the FIT scheme.
Power generation by wind energy was 4,9 TWh in FY2013, which is comparable to the 4,3 TWh power generation of non-residential PV solar by FIT scheme.
In FY2013, the total cost for FIT payments
was estimated at about 480 billion JPY(Japanese Yen) and the total surcharge at about 313
billion JPY, the difference an avoidable cost of
about 167 Billion Yen. However, the actual FIT payment was 579 billion JPY in FY2013 and actual electricity produced by FIT certified
power plants was 18 TWh, which had been
current situation revealed that for electricity companies it is difficult for them to connect expand the use of renewable energy such
as photovoltaic and wind energy, "priority
access" must be given to renewable sources of electricity. Furthermore, reforming the
system regulations is essential, especially with regarding the distribution of electricity. The regulations that must be reformed include
the separation of electricity generation and
transmission, along with the maintenance of the energy supply network. The parliament
approved a new bill for the electricity system reform on the 11th June 2014, to implement
full liberalization of entry into the electricity retailing starting in 2016[9].
Figure 5 Cumulative FIT certified capacity in Japan Source: ANRI METI
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Figure 6 Economic effects of renewable energy by FIT scheme in Japan (FY2013) Source: ANRI METI, ISEP
The current status of wind energy in Japan While the total installed capacity of wind
power was 2,7 GW at the end of FY2013, its
annual installation capacity was still sluggish at about 65 MW, as shown in Fig.7. After starting FIT scheme, the rate of annual installations
has slowed down due to various constraints,
including the matter of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and grid connection issues.
However, by end of FY2013, FIT certified wind farms reached a total of 1 GW, which will be
built in a few years. The cumulative capacity
of wind power will thus reach 3,7GW after the
installation of the current FIT certified projects. Many of these projects are undertaking
the process of Environmental Impact
Assessment(EIA) which is required since
2012 for larger capacity projects over 7,5 MW. The total capacity of wind farms in the EIA process reached 5,8 GW by July 2014. If all
of the duration.
Moreover, grid issues are especially critical
in the regions where conditions are good for
wind but the local grid condition is inadequate. For these grid issues, several improvements
are being worked on by government and power market industries over the next few years. For example, a new organization for operating a
power grid intra-regionally will start to work in April 2015 as the first step of electricity system reform.
Future Perspective of wind energy in Japan Although the Japanese Government has
not yet decided on the target of renewable energy capacity, the Japan Wind Power
Association (JWPA) has released the roadmap and scenarios for the wind energy including
offshore based on calculations of wind energy resources and availability in Japan [10]. The
wind projects were successful through the EIA
capacity target for wind power capacity in the
several years in Japan. These EIA processes
per year by 2030 and the wind power market
process, the cumulative capacity of wind power would be expected to reach 9.5GW in the next
need to be improved especially for shortening
road map by JWPA is shown in Table.3. Annual
new installations are estimated to grow to 3GW will keep adding more than 3,5GW per year
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Figure 7 Trends and pipeline of wind power capacity in Japan Source: JWPA, NEDO
Figure 8 Potential of renewable energy power generation in Japan Source: MoE
Table 2 Roadmap of wind energy in Japan by JWPA Year
FY2013
FY2020
FY2030
FY2050
Onshore
2.6 GW
10 GW
27 GW
38 GW
Offshore(Fixed)
0.046 GW
0.6 GW
6 GW
19 GW
Offshore(Floating)
0.004 GW
0.1 GW
4 GW
18 GW
Total
2.7 GW
11 GW
36 GW
75 GW
Source: JWPA
after 2030.
2013[3]. The total potential of wind energy
Japan. The research projects to investigate the
Hokkaido and Tohoku have far more potential
Fig.8 shows the potential of renewable
energy power generation in each region of
renewable energy potential were conducted
by the Ministry of Environment (MoE) up until 32
seems much larger than the long-term target of wind capacity by JWPA. The Regions of
for offshore wind power than the installed total power capacity of each regional utility.
ISSUE 3 June 2014
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Summary
After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, energy policy and with it the status of renewable energy in Japan is about to change significantly. Economic impacts, including employment effects from the FIT scheme, should be estimated annually in each region of Japan. In FY2013, the dramatic introduction of renewable energy in the power sector, such as solar power, came as expected from the start of the feed-in tariffs. Other renewable energies such as wind energy and so forth have several issues caused by excessive regulations or limitations of the power system in Japan. Still, wind energy, including offshore, has a very large potential in Japan. Ambitious targets and clear policies for each technology of renewable energy are needed, and especially for wind.
References
[1]METI Japan “The New Strategic Energy Plan”, http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2014/0411_02.html ,April 2014 [2] ISEP “International Community Power Conference 2014 in Fukushima”http://www.isep.or.jp/en/cp2014/ February 2014 [3]ANRE, METI Japan “Announcement Regarding the Present Status of Introduction of Facilities Generating Renewable Energy as of April 30, 2014, and a New Measure for Publicizing Future Information”, http://www.meti. go.jp/english/press/2014/0806_02.html, August 2014 [4]ISEP “Renewables Japan Status Report 2014”http://www.isep.or.jp/en/library/2958 , March 2014 [5] REN21,“Renewables 2014 Global Status Report” http://www.ren21.net/gsr , June 2014 [6]ANRE, METI Japan, “Settlement of FY2014 Purchase Prices and FY2014 Surcharge Rates under the Feedin Tariff Scheme for Renewable Energy”, http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2014/0325_03.html , March 2014 [7] UNEP “Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2014”http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/gtr2014 , 2014 [8]Yoshiyasu Ono, et al. “Energy Conversion and Its Effect on Employment” Osaka Univ. ISER Discussion Papers No.846, 2012 [9]METI “Electricity System Reform”http://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/electricity_ system_reform/index.html 2011-2014 [10] JWPA “Wind Power Energy Resources and Mid/Long Term Target Ver4.3”http://jwpa.jp/page_196_ englishsite/jwpa/detail_e.html , July 2014
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The Cuban policy for the prospective development of renewable energy resources 2014-2030 Prof. Dr. Conrado Moreno Figueredo Center of Study for Renewable Energy Technologies (CETER) Higher Polytechnic Institute of Havana Jose A. Echeverria (CUJAE)
The Cuban government has taken an
important step toward solving the difficult
energy situation prevailing in the country, with the approval of a policy directed to increasing
the use of renewable energy sources (RES) and to improvingoverall energy efficiency in the country.
The author of this article has the purpose
of giving a brief outline of information on this policy, to outline the importance of this step.
In future publications, the author promises to enlarge on this theme.
The approval of the Economic and
Social Guidelines of Party and Revolution
(ESGPR) in 2011, and the need to upgrade the Cuban economic model (with the objective
ofbecoming more in tune with the conditions of the international environment), are 34
important factors inopening the way for more
renewable energy sources in all aspects of the Cuban life.
The ESGPR is a comprehensive document,
which contains more than 300 guidelines. Many directives in the approved ESGPR are focused on the development of RES. Some examples include:
247. To develop the use of the different
renewable energy sources, fundamentally the use of windenergy, hydraulics, biomass, solar, biogas and others;
246. To foment cogeneration and tri-
generation in all the activities where there are possibilities to do so: in particular, to increase
electricity generation in the sugar agroindustry using industry wastes.
267. To prioritize the maintenance and
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ISSUE 3 June 2014
renovation of the tourist infrastructure to
increase the use of renewable energy sources. 113. To prioritize, in relationships with
international collaborating organizations, material and technological support in the
development of objectives for the use of the diverse renewable energy sources.
Those directives are in response to the
current energy situation in Cuba, which is
Natural Gas 10％
Total RES 4.0％ Oil 51％
Diesel 3％ Fuel ICE 19％ Fuel Thermoelectric plants 13％
characterized by:
• High dependence on imported fuel
(53%) and therefore low energy security
FIGURE 1 ELECTRCITY GENERATION BY FUEL SOURCE
• Limited use of renewable sources
of energy (approximately4% of total consumption)
• Low efficiency in the use of the energy
sources, which means higher costs in both production and consumption
Domestic 47％
• High average cost of kWh delivered in
the year 2013 (more than 0.20 USD/kWh)
Imported 53％
• Obsolete technologies at use in
thermoelectric plants
• Absence of legislation to provide
incentives for the use of RES
• Lack of a co-ordinated policy for the
development of RES
• Characteristics of the current load curve
fossil fuels
At the end of 2013, theProposal for
looking to reduce the cost of the energy
are not suitable for increasing the use of the RES
FIGURE 2 ORIGIN OF FUEL SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION
the Prospective Development of RES 2014-
2030 and its Schedule of Implementationwas elaborated, presented and approved in the
• To focus one fficiency in the generation,
distribution and consumption of electricity, supplied to the National Electric System
• To reduce environmental contamination In July 2013, the Minister Council and
National Implementation Commission of
the National Assembly of Popular Power (the
objectives:
and therefore this proposal was converted into
ESGPR.
The proposal pursues the following
• To transform the structure of the energy
sources used for electricity generation and
consumption, increasing the use of RES and diversifying among fossil fuels
• No increase to dependence on imported
Cuban Parliament) approved the Proposal for
the Prospective Development of RES 2014-2030 the Cuba´s Policy for the RES 2014-2030.
The main actions approved for satisfying
this policy are:
1. To increase the share of RES in the
energy matrix with the implementation of:
35
Regional Focus
ISSUE 3 June 2014
• 755 MW in Bioelectrics (eg.,Sugar
Factories producing sugar whil esupplying
electricity for internal consumption and selling the surplus to the public electric grid).
• 633 MW in wind parks located in 13
sites at the eastern part of the island
• 700 MW in photovoltaic parks
• 56 MW in small hydroelectric plants
2. To prepare national industry for the production of parts, components and equipment related to the RES technologies All these actions will allow the country: • To increase the share of the RES from
4% up to 24% by 2030
• To reduce the use of imported fuel for
electricity generation
• To reduce the cost per kWh supplied
• To reduce environmental contamination
from electricity generation
To carry out this plan, Cuban experts
consider that USD 3700 million are
needed,toward which foreign investment
should play an important role. Jointed with this, at the end of the last year the Foreign
Investment Law was approved, which aims to facilitate the introduction of foreign
investors in the country’s energy program.A
specific Renewable Energy Law is in stage of
preparation seeking to increase investment in renewable energy.
With these developments, Cuba is
moving to embrace the thoughts affirmed
by the director of the International Agency
of the Renewable Energy (IRENA),MrAdnan Z. Amin, at the III Conference of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) that took
place between 1-4 September in the Samoan Archipelago (Oceania): that renewable
energy constitutes a “future option” for the SIDS. 36
Photo:Ning Jia