2003 Annual Research Report

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Institute for transport Studies, University of Leeds

By Professor Oliver Carsten Introduction Once again, ITS has had a very successful year on the research front. Notable new awards include an EPSRC Platform Grant on modelling, and a number of awards under the European Sixth Framework Programme. Here we have secured involvement in one Integrated Project, AIDE on the interface between the driver and advanced driver assistance systems, in a Network of Excellence, AIDE on pricing and regulation, and a Marie Curie early training site which will provide PhD scholarships to students from continental Europe. We have also secured major renewal for our principal facilities, the Instrumented City/ LANTERN and the Driving Simulator, through HEFCE's Strategic Research Infrastructure Fund.

RESEARCH FACILITIES ITS maintains two major research facilities, the Advanced Driving Simulator, and the Instrumented City, recently enhanced by the LANTERN (Leeds health Air pollution, Noise, Traffic and Emissions Research Network) infrastructure award. The Leeds Advanced Driving Simulator (LADS) is currently a fixedbased facility, built around a complete Rover 216GTi with its driver controls and dashboard instrumentation fully operational. A real-time, fully textured and anti-aliased, 3-D graphical scene of the virtual world is generated by an Onyx2 Infinite Reality2 workstation and is projected onto a 2.5m radius cylindrical screen.

The total horizontal forward field of view is 230° and the vertical field of view is 39°. A rear view (60°) is back projected onto a screen behind the car to provide an image seen through the vehicle's rear view mirror. Unlike many other simulators, especially in the United Kingdom, LADS was and continues to develop using in-house expertise. It became operational in 1994 after receiving the development funds from the University and the former Science and Engineering Research Council. Since then, the simulator has been an essential element in much of the driver behaviour and transport safety research work carried out at the University and has been used in 21 major projects with a combined total value of nearly £3m. Research sponsors have included the British's Government's Department of Transport and of Trade and Industry, U.K. Research Councils, the European Union and several vehicle manufacturers. As noted above, the simulator is to receive a major enhancement in

2004/5 with investment through HEFCE's Science Research Investment Fund. The outlay will fund: • a state-of-the-art motion base to represent the inertial cues felt by a driver during braking and cornering.

• a new vehicle cab and dome, including the provision of standard driver controls and fully functioning dashboard instrumentation.

• kinaesthetic feedback to the driver through pedal feel, steering wheel torque and other control loading.

• industry standard visual modelling and runtime platform.

• a new image projection system including up to eight visual channels.

• realistic binaural acoustics with up to eight audio channels.

• refurbishment of existing campus space to house the new facility and its associated research offices.

The upgrade aims to move the LADS from the head of UK research facilities into a world leader for an affordable investment. The main contact for the Simulator is Hamish Jamson (Tel: +44 (0)113 343 5730; Email: hjamson@its.leeds.ac.uk).

The Instrumented City collects “live” data on traffic movements, traffic signal timings, roadside and background ambient air quality, and meteorological conditions in Leicester (and satellite towns Hinckley, Melton Mowbray and Loughborough), Nottingham, York and periodically in London. The JIF award for LANTERN has enabled significant investment in traffic, noise and air quality monitoring and modelling infrastructure. The main contact for the Instrumented City is James Tate (Tel: +44 (0)113 343 6608; Email: jtate@its.leeds.ac.uk). LANTERN has provided a National Integrated Research Facility in the fields of traffic, emissions, noise and air quality. LANTERN is enabling research to be conducted into all aspects of the process from transport policy and traffic management through to the generation and dispersion of pollutants and their impact on people’s health.

Clearly, a wealth of static and dynamic, spatial and temporal data is being collated at a number of sites, either systematically or in intensive survey campaigns. All information is stored centrally in a sophisticated and comprehensive database. The research is being conducted across seven departments at the University of Leeds, including the Energy Resources Research Institute (ERRI), Mining and Mineral Engineering, Schools of Chemistry and Civil Engineering, Pathological Sciences and Molecular Epidemiology Units in the School of Medicine. For LANTERN the main contact is Prof Margaret Bell (Tel: +44 (0)113 343 5330; Email: mbell@its.leeds.ac.uk) who

also leads the Instrumented City research team.

SOFTWARE Following the retirement from the University of Dirck Van Vliet in August 2001 the continuing development of the SATURN simulation and assignment model is now a 3-way partnership between ITS, Dirck Van Vliet and Atkins Highways & Transportation (who are responsible for marketing). SATURN Version 10.4 was released in October 2003 and includes substantial upgrades in interactive graphics. It also contains a theoretically-grounded method AUTOK which can produce significantly improved convergence of the simulationassignment loops. Developments for 10.5 are likely to include extended options for demand modelling in the light of VaDMA recommendations. The contact for SATURN is Dirck Van Vliet (Tel +44 (0)113 343 1789; Email dirck_van_vliet@yahoo.co.uk.

Also produced by the Institute and distributed

by Atkins Highways & Transportation is the DRACULA microsimulation package. DRACULA shares a common network format with SATURN, allowing easy transfer of data between the two packages. DRACULA represents complete transport trip mechanisms, from a choice of where and when to travel, to the choice of mode and the simulation of the entire journey by motorised means at a microscopic (individual vehicle) level. The contact for DRACULA is Ronghui Liu (Tel: +44 (0)113 343 5338; Email: rliu@its.leeds.ac.uk).

STAFF CHANGES Jeanette Whalley who had led the research administration at ITS left for a post as a departmental administrator at York University.

Anna Kruk moved from being departmental secretary in ITS to a post in the Faculty of Engineering. Another secretarial departure was Mary Huby, while Eleanor Briggs ended a short term as receptionist. Asif Chaudry, who had carried out research in the area of emissions left ITS, as did Anita and Esko Niskanen who had provided administration and coordination on Framework 5 European projects.

Among those joining the Institute was Professor Nigel Smith, from the School of Civil Engineering, who will now have a half-time post as Professor of Transport engineering in ITS. Greg Marsden was appointed as Lecturer in Transport Studies and John Carr as parttime Senior Lecturer in the public transport area. There were two appointments as Visiting Professors, Derek Quinn and Tom Van Vuren.

Sheila Mathison was appointed as Research Administrator, Richard Connors and Kate Woodham joined ITS as Research Fellows, Julie Mallinson arrived as a Senior Secretary, and Emma Holden was appointed to the

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research administration team as a Finance Assistant.

There were several promotions. Oliver Carsten was promoted to Professor of Transport Safety, Anil Namdeo to Senior Research Fellow, Charlotte Kelly to Research Fellow and Ben Broadbent to Technical Grade D. Matthew Page transferred to a Lecturer appointment.

STAFF NEWS Professor Tony May is a member of the WCTR Scientific Committee. As a member of the Commission on Urban Transport and the Environment, he attended a meeting in Washington in January and a conference in Tokyo in February. He was appointed Champion for the Transport Planning Skills Initiative and became a member of the EC Expert Group on Sustainable Urban Transport. Professor May was appointed to chair the Royal Academy of Engineering Panel on Transport Policy. He attended conferences for several European Projects throughout the year, including the final conference on PROSPECTS in Vienna in January. He attended a seminar on Developing Optimal Transport Strategies in Oxford in May and gave the Transport Research foundation lecture in Leeds in June. The ASTRAL project final conference took place in Budapest in October. As a member of the ECMT Committee, he attended the conference in Washington in November. Also in November, Professor May was a keynote speaker at the TRB/OECD conference on road pricing in Florida.

Professor Peter Bonsall was appointed Editor (with responsibility for Topical Issues Section), Transport Policy. He served on the Panel for Eric Pas Memorial Prize for International Association of Travel Behaviour Research. He was also appointed Representative of UK Universities for Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C. He made a keynote presentation to a symposium on Behavioural Responses to ITS, Eirass, Eindhoven, April 2003 (“Traveller Behaviour: Decision Making in an Unpredictable World”), and was invited Speaker at a conference on ‘Understanding the Transport User’, London, July 2003. He continues to serve as Member of Scientific Committee and Steering Committee for World Conference on Transport Research.

Abigail Bristow took over as editor of the International Journal of Transport Management in 2003.

Professor Chris Nash acted as a keynote speaker and member of the Scientific Committee of the International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Public Transport in Rio de Janeiro in September. He was also an invited speaker at an OECD/TRB conference on road pricing in Miami, Florida and at seminars organised by the Universities of Leuven (Belgium) and Toulouse (France).

Dr Susan Grant-Muller has been awarded approximately 1.2m euros in funding under the highly prestigious 6th Framework Marie Curie Early Stage Training scheme. This will provide scholarships to enable EU and International students to undertake a 3 year programme of study for PhD and confirms the position of ITS

as an international centre of excellence in doctoral study. The two current 5th framework Marie Curie Training sites for students already registered for PhD study in Europe are complementary to the new site.

David Watling and Agachai Sumalee spent an extended period in Japan, following their presentations at the 5th Eastern Asia Society for Transport Studies (EASTS) Conference in Fukuoka for which they received the outstanding paper award. Their visit included an International Colloquium in Karatsu, seminars to the university transport groups in Tokyo and Sendai, and seminars at a one-day miniWorkshop in Kyoto arranged for their visit and involving Japanese researchers from many institutions.

Dr Greg Marsden has been appointed as an advisor to the Transport Select Committee and is currently advising on their inquiry into “Cars of the Future”.

Professor Peter Mackie was appointed Faculty Dean for Earth and Environment. He and John Nellthorp led a World Bank Seminar in Washington on the toolkit for economic appraisal of transport projects developed by ITS. Professor Oliver Carsten continued as Chair of the Road User Behaviour Working Party of the Parliamentary Advisory Council for Transport Safety (PACTS). He was one of the panel of safety experts participating in the roundtable discussion at the 10th anniversary celebration of the European Transport Safety Council (ETSC).

Professor Margaret Bell was appointed as Chairperson for the UTSG and the ITS(UK) SMART Environment Interest Group.

Dr Jeremy Toner advised the Office of Fair Trading during their investigation into the regulation of licensed taxi and PHV services in the UK. Julie Whitham obtained a BA Hons (Work Related Learning) from the University of Leeds in July 2003.

STUDENT NEWS Dave Keenan won the National IHT 2003 Colas Premium Award Final for his paper on: “Speed cameras and their effect on modifying our behaviour”.

Dimitrios Kokkonidis won the Runner-Up prize in the ITS-UK/TEC student competition for his paper on: “Assessing the potential of in-car navigation systems for the hire car market”.

VISITORS Visitors in 2003 were Sun Min Park from the Korean National Railroad; Ken etsu Echida from the Graduate School of Hokkaido University, Japan; Belen Rey from the Computense University in Madrid; Dr Mohammad Al Sughaiyer from the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia and Professor Haiyan Wu of the Beijing Institute of Civil Engineering and Architecture, China.

PhDS AWARDED Seven PhD’s were awarded in 2003. They were: Josephine Guiver, “Understanding the mental

models used in mode choice and transport planning: a case study”; Martin Humphreys, “Assessing indirect use and non-use benefits of rail transport with expressed preference techniques”; Ann Jopson, “Reducing car use: the role of the theory of planned behaviour”; Leksmono Putranto, “Vehicle ownership characteristics in Indonesia”; Charles Roberts, “The effect of ownership changes in the British bus industry since 1985”; Tri Tjahjono, “Traffic accident prediction models on Indonesian toll roads”; Gerard Whelan, “Modelling car ownership and use in Great Britain.”

RESEARCH STUDENTS Other than those awarded degrees in 2003, the research students registered and their research topics were: Robert Bain, “Innovative financing for highway construction and maintenance: extending the opportunities for private sector participation”; Narasimha Chandrasekha Balijepalli, “Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modelling”; Hazel Baslington, “School location, traffic location and pupils’ health”; George Franklin, “An assessment of express commuter services and their impact on the journey to work”; Pelle Envall, “Managing car free ‘households’ accessibility, A GIS tool for integrated transport and land use planning”; George Franklin, “Developments in long distance commuting”; Anthony Glass, “Modelling competition in the British passenger rail sector”; Xu Hao, “Evaluation of the improved service quality of public transport under intelligent transport systems (ITS) in China”; Yaron Hollander, “The Cost of Travel Time Variability in Bus Lanes”; Shamsul Hoque, “The role of improved quality bus services in developing countries: a case study for urban bus services in Dhaka City, Bangladesh”; Hamish Jamson, “Evaluation of Driving Simulator Safety”; Sabariah Jemali, “Urban Passenger Transport Sustainable Policies and Strategies”; Frank Lai, “Driver attentional demand to dualtask performance”; James Laird, “Economic Impact of Network Reliability and Accessibility in Highlands and Island; Hui (Lucy) Lu, “Reliability of stated preference method”; William Lythgoe, “The use of geographical information systems to improve rail demand models”; Daniel McGehee, “The biodynamics of preimpact bracing”; Eric Moreno-Quintero, “Modelling freight vehicle flows on Mexican highways”; John Nellthorp, “Project appraisal, pricing policy and the use of resources”;

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Quoc Hien Nguyen, “Modelling the urban traffic flow in consideration of two-wheel vehicles”; Clifford Opurum, “Evaluation of the impact of the automated fare collection system on rail rapid transit : the case of New York”; John Parkin, “Determination and measurement of factors which influence propensity to cycle to work”; Nasir Rana, “Effective integrated transport and land use strategies”; Cesar Rivera Trujillo, “Measuring the productivity and efficiency of railways”; Pattarathep Sillaparcharn, “National Transport Modelling: General Approach and Application to Thailand”; Agachai Sumalee, “Procedures for evaluating practical and optimal charge cordon designs”; Fergus Tate, “The potential benefits of a junction accident warning system”; James Tate, “Traffic demand management strategies to improve air quality in the urban environment”; Sotirios Thanos, “Aircraft Externalities”; Minh Tran Huu, “Solutions to implement intelligent transport systems in developing countries – a case study in Hanoi, Vietnam”; Jiao Wang, “Modelling motorway traffic flows”; Wenqun Wang, “Traffic incident duration analysis”; Helen Watters, “Transport in the UK: developing a sustainable travel allowance.

SAFETY Stroke drivers TRL from January 2002 to June 2004 Grant holder: Professor O M J Carsten Dr N L Read This study aims to assess to reliability and validity of the Stroke Drivers Screening Assessment (SDSA), a testing tool that aims to differentiate between those drivers who suffered a stroke who are fit and those who are unfit to return to safe driving.

The study consists of a survey and telephone follow-up investigation of current users of this task, which also examines the accuracy of the test administration and interpretation. Testretest and inter-rater reliability are also examined, as are training effects.

Criterion validity is assessed used standard route and scoring on-road driving task, and a study of concurrent validity in relation to the Useful Field of View is also carried out. Two hundred drivers who suffered a stroke and 100 matched controls will take part in the validity study.

The survey stage of the study has been completed and the inter-rater reliability study is being written up. Data collection on the validity study and on the training effects sub-study are ongoing. All other stages are ongoing, with results expected in the late part of 2004.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the National Driver Improvement Scheme (NDIS) DfT from May 2001 to April 2005 F. Lai Grant Holder: Prof O.M.J. Carsten Collaborating partners: ANDISP; The Police; DVLA

NDIS has been in operation in the UK since 1991. The course consists of a full and a half day lessons covering lectures and onroad practice, and is offered to drivers committed motoring offences against Section 3 of the Road Traffic Safety Act 1988, driving without due care and attention, as an alternative to prosecution through the courts.

NDIS aims to rectify unsafe driving behaviour and reduce accident involvement rates of the attendees.

This project investigates the magnitude of changes in drivers’ attitude and behaviour as a result of the NDIS intervention, and, more importantly, the duration of the changes. This research consists of questionnaire surveys, driving assessments, and re-offence analyses.

We are currently in the final stage of questionnaire surveys and are running field driving assessments in West Yorkshire and County Durham. Preliminary analysis results have indicated positive movements in terms of driver attitude and driving behaviour after course attendance, and some of the changes have lasted over 12 months.

Intelligent speed adaptation DfT from January 2001 to October 2005 SL Jamson, H Jamson, K Chorlton, S. Gawthorpe, T Tjahjono, F Lai, Grant holder: Professor O M J Carsten Collaborating partners: MIRA Ltd, Peter Jesty Consulting This project is the follow-on to External Vehicle Speed Control, funded by DETR between 1997 and 2001. The main tasks of the project are to investigate user behaviour with ISA by means of set of field trials, to study overtaking behaviour with ISA in a driving simulator, to prepare an ISA design for motorcycles and large trucks and to build a demonstrator of each, to prepare a system architecture for a mass production configuration of ISA, to have an input into relevant standards activities at an international level, to carry out a process of technology watch throughout the project duration, and to further investigate the costs and benefits of ISA. During 2003, the first field trial in Leeds with the twenty equipped cars began. Each of the four field trials lasts for six months, of which two months are without ISA and four months are with ISA. The older motorcyclist DfT from May 2001 to September 2003 K Chorlton, M Connor (Psychology) Grant holder: Dr S L Jamson Until 1996, the number of killed and seriously injured motorcyclists was following the same general downward trend as car accidents. Since then however, there has been a steady increase year by year in the total number of motorcycle casualties (approximately 10%). When examined by age group, it becomes clear that this rise is specific to those aged between 25 and 59. The aims of this project are to understand why this age group are involved in an increasing number of incidents and also to

recommend interventions to reverse this process.

An initial survey collected information from approximately 1000 riders. This provided a broad picture of the older motorcyclists’ activities in terms of exposure, experience, vehicle characteristics and driving/riding history (including training and accidents) in relation to other motorcyclists. A second survey was distributed to 30,300 motorcyclists. This aims to examine the psychological differences, in terms of attitudes to riding and risk between groups of riders. The final report is in preparation.

Human machine interface And the Safety of Traffic in Europe (HASTE) EU Fifth Framework programme from January 2002 to January 2005 Mr A H Jamson, Dr S L Jamson, Dr N Merat, F Lai, Grant holder: Prof O M J Carsten Collaborators: Delft, MIRA, TNO, Transport Canada, Volvo, VTI, VTT, University of Minho The aim of HASTE is to develop methodologies and guidelines for the assessment of in-vehicle information systems (IVIS), i.e. to formulate pass/fail criteria for IVIS. A major technical and scientific objective of HASTE is the identification and exploration of the relationship between traffic scenario, driver and IVIS. This relationship will be investigated by studying behavioural, vehicle, psycho-physiological, and self-report measures. The partnership consists of eight European partners and one partner from a country with a cooperation agreement and consists of a balance of Northern and Southern European countries. The first experimental stage of the project, which looked at the effect of surrogate IVIS on driving is now complete.

Preparations are currently underway for the next experimental stage, to develop a ‘Test Regime’ for the evaluation of real systems/tasks in a design process.

Driver Response to AFS Failure Jaguar from November 2003 to January 2004 Grant holder: A H Jamson Active Front Steer (AFS) is a comfort device that has the ability to modify the driver demanded steering angle at the input to the steering rack.

This system allows a variable steering gain function to be generated artificially dependent on vehicle speed. This project will investigate driver response to AFS failure compared with two further conditions: • Failure of steering power assist.

• ß AFS failure but with drivers pre-warned to its failure by a dashboard alarm.

The study will be performed using the Leeds Advanced Driving Simulator facility.

NETWORK MODELLING Designs for Interurban Road Pricing Schemes in Europe (DESIRE) EU Fifth Framework programme from September 2000 to February 2003 B Matthews. Grant holder: Dr P M Timms

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Collaborators: TIS, BRISA (P); ISIS (F); FAV, DIW (D); RAPP, ECOPLAN (CH); COWI (DK); UNIKARL (D); UFRGS (BR); NEA, NEI, Siemens (NL); AUT (H); KTI (HU) The technical and scientific outputs of DESIRE were as follows: • Review of current designs for inter-urban road pricing systems (IRPS) for heavy vehicles (HGV).

• An in depth analysis of the impact of such systems.

• Development of a set of guidelines for the future design, financing and implementation of such systems.

ITS had two main roles in DESIRE. Firstly it supported the University Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) with a review of experiences of road pricing in Brazil. Secondly it supported the University of Karlsruhe in modelling the strategic effects of IRPS within Europe.

Advancing transport network design through improved behavioural response EPSRC from April 2003 to December 2005 A Sumalee, J Nellthorp, Dr R Connors Grant holder: Dr D P Watling The objective of this project is to advance the techniques available for problems of the network-level, bi-level optimisation kind, e.g., determining optimal toll levels/locations subject to an equilibrium response. The research to date has focused on enriching the behavioural response of drivers, modelled through an elastic demand, probit stochastic user equilibrium, and on exploring the link with network design problems that incorporate the conventional Wardrop equilibrium response model. On-going work relates to the development of sensitivitybased optimisation algorithms for the design problem, to the further extension of the response model, and to the solution of mixed discrete/continuous design problems.

Co-ordinating Urban Pricing Integrated Demonstrations (CUPID) EU Fifth Framework programme from January 2000 to March 2004 Dr P M Timms, Professor A D May, Dr S P Shepherd Grant holder: Dr D S Milne Collaborators: TTR (UK); ISIS (I); TIS (P); TUD (D); SINTEF (NO) CUPID is a Thematic Network which has provided state of the art research intelligence about urban transport pricing. In particular, it has provided guidance and assistance to eight European cities that have been developing and attempting to trial road pricing schemes, as part of the related PRoGRESS project. Those trials which have proved possible within the timescale of the project have now been carried out and the results have been presented at a project conference in London during February 2003.

The project is now in the process of producing a final report. Further details are available at www.transport-pricing.net

The design of optimal strategies EPSRC from July 2002 to June 2004.

Dr G. Emberger, Dr S.P. Shepherd, A. Sumalee.

Grant holder: Professor A D May With TRL Ltd. Methods developed in earlier research to generate optimal combinations of policy instruments are being used with three transport and land use models in eight cities. TRL’s two zone TPM model is being used in Bristol, Dundee, Edinburgh, Exeter, Leeds, Preston, Oslo and Vienna; the Technical University of Vienna’s SPM model is being used in Edinburgh, Leeds, Oslo and Vienna, and the START/DELTA model is also being used in Edinburgh. All have been applied initially to identify combinations of a given set of policy options which are optimal in satisfying two agreed objective functions. Early results confirmed the importance of changes in fares, frequencies, car use charges and low cost capacity increases. Optimisation with various constraints on finance, accidents and emissions have shown how the performance is affected by the constraints – usually resulting in lower levels of service and/or increased charges for car.

Spatial and temporal variation of instruments showed that changes in frequencies could be more efficient if allowed to vary by zone and by time of day. A final set of tests will investigate the combination of transport and land use policy instruments.

Optimal charge cordon designs DTLR from September 2000 to August 2003 A Sumalee Grant holder: Professor A D May A questionnaire survey and in-depth interview were conducted with six UK local authorities in order to identify the design criteria for charging cordons. The survey results reveals that the design is more concerned with the issues of public acceptance and adverse impacts rather than the objective of the scheme. In additional, it also indicates that the closed cordon is one of the necessary specifications as well as the simple charge structure (e.g. uniform charge).

The research has developed the optimisation process based on Genetic Algorithms (GA) to find the optimal location of a charging cordon and its optimal uniform charge. The optimisation process has also been extended to handle the constraints on the design (e.g. equity impact, travel time reduction, and pollution) and multiobjective problem. The methods are tested with the network of Edinburgh. The work is due to complete by the summer 2004.

Network reliability DfT from January 2003 to March 2004 A Sumalee, Dr R Connors, J Toner. Grant Holder Dr D P Watling This project is funded by the UK Department for Transport under the New Horizons programme.

The project consists of two main phases. The first phase is to develop an efficient approach for evaluating travel time reliability with dependent probability of link failure for a largescale network. A framework of cause-based failure approach is utilised to frame the dependent link failure into an easier format to handle during the evaluation process. A method

based on partitioning algorithm and stratified Monte-Carlo simulation has been developed for the evaluation of travel time reliability. The method was tested with a medium-sized network. The second phase of the project is to look at the travel time reliability from a dynamical perspective. The demand for travel on a single link is treated as an inflow profile over a period of time, based on the dynamic whole-link model of Carey. The project introduces the concept of day-to-day variation of the inflow profile and attempts to analytically estimate the expected travel time for the users from different departure times. This part of the work is currently in progress, the project ending in March 2004 A model to assess public transport reliability DfT/EPSRC from September 2003 to September 2005 K Woodham, P Balmforth. Grant holders: Dr Dirck van Vliet, Dr R Liu A research project funded jointly by DfT and EPSRC under the Future Integrated Transport (FIT) programme. The overall aim of this project is to enhance modelling of bus operations and to develop methods for direct assessment and analysis of public transport reliability. More specifically this project will develop explicit representation of buses in terms of their timetables and scheduling and of bus passengers into an existing micro-simulation model of vehicle traffic, DRACULA, in order to model how, on a day-to-day basis, unreliability occurs and to quantify its scale and causes. The model will produce numerical measures of reliability and assess how measures such as bus lanes or signal priority schemes can improve reliability. Specific studies of Warrington will be carried out in conjunction with Warrington Borough Council and with the cooperation of several bus operators and transport consultants TRAFFIC, ENVIRONMENT & INFORMATICS REal-time Traffic Information Systems (RETTIS) EPSRC from February 2001 to February 2003 Dr H Chen, Dr P S Goodman, A Chaudry Grant holders: Professor M C Bell and Dr R D Boyle (School of Computing) co-authored by Dr H Chen Collaborating partners: Leicester City Council, Jasmin Electronics Ltd., First Leicester The project objectives were to: (1) integrate the existing traffic congestion assessment and mapping techniques available for SCOOT with a new development of congestion detection and assessment for fixed-time control areas, (2) predict short-term congestion levels for both SCOOT and fixed-time regions, (3) develop a generic journey time predictor for traffic travelling through the network, and (4) provide real-time information to the public on the Web at the start of the trip and by radio and data messages in the car during the trip, regarding the current journey time and traffic congestion states. The output of this research is techniques and software that can be exploited by traffic operators, information media and drivers. This

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research was timely given the national/international interest in traffic management and information broadcasts.

Leeds Health Air Quality Noise Traffic Emissions Research Network (LANTERN) EPSRC from December 2000 to November 2003 Dr H Chen, Dr P S Goodman, Dr A Namdeo, J E Tate Grant holder: Professor M C Bell, Professor G E Andrews (Fuel & Energy), Professor C P Wild (Medicine), Professor A D May, Dr A S Tomlin (Fuel & Energy), Dr P W Seakins (Chemistry), Dr G M Kale (Mining), Professor A W M Hay (Epidemiology), Dr A S Watson (Civil Engineering), Dr A G Clarke (Fuel & Energy) The LANTERN National Integrated Research Facility is an initiative made possible by the EPSRC:JIF award. It refurbishes and enhances infrastructure across six departments of the University of Leeds, to facilitate research to be conducted into all aspects of transport and air pollution. Research themes include: traffic monitoring and modelling, traffic management, emissions monitoring and modelling, air pollution modelling at city and local scales, personal exposure studies, and impacts on health. Within ITS, the Instrumented City Facility has been considerably enhanced, including number plate recognition hard and software, a variety of portable and laboratory style gaseous and particulate pollution monitors, noise monitors, IT equipment and a highly instrumented car for driver behaviour and emission studies. Two active computer clusters, a workstation for the Airviro air quality modelling system and a database server are now up and running and available for research.

The prototype database that will potentially provide easy access to the 50 gigabytes of Instrumented City is now available. This work is being carried out by the LANTERN collaborative partner School of Civil Engineering. For further information regarding data and equipment contact mbell@its.leeds.ac.uk.

LANTERN Platform Grant EPSRC from January 2001 to January 2005 Dr P Goodman, Dr R Liu, J Tate, Grant Holder: Prof MC Bell Collaborators: York City Council, Leicester City Council The purpose of the LANTERN Platform Grant (PG) is to provide the time needed for key researchers from the Internationally leading departments, the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) and the Energy & Resources Research Institute (ERRI) to carry out fundamental research identified in LANTERN and thus making the best use of the equipment and facilities enhanced by the recent award of up to ÂŁ4.2 from the EPSRC:JIF. The PG intends to contribute substantially to the success of the research programme LANTERN, by pumppriming entirely new theoretical approaches, to formulate robust statistical analyses and develop novel survey methodologies to create

microscopic simulation tools for predicting pollutant concentrations in the urban environment. The proposed research team members present unique complimentary skills that by working together will, make substantial progress in the core research areas of LANTERN to gain a better understanding of the dispersion of pollutants in the street canyon, and identify multi-disciplinary research to generate at least four proposals for crossResearch Council funding each year of the grant. This project is enabling key researchers in ITS in the field of microscopic modelling of traffic and noise to carry out integrated monitoring and modelling with ERRI on dispersion. A key to the success of this project, is in achieving integrated survey campaigns and data analysis using the database, developed by the School of Civil Engineering.

The PLATFORM research programme has already delivered: In the dispersion area: a practical scale Lagrangian based model capable of representing the dispersion of traffic based pollutants within a fully 3 dimensional description of urban topographies. The model has demonstrated the impact of building structures on the mean concentrations of pollutants within urban streets for a range of background weather conditions. The combined model will provide a step change in the capability of Local Authorities to understand the influence of traffic on local air pollution hot-spots and has received significant support from several City Councils in the form of traffic and emissions data. In particular, strong links have been formed with York, Leeds and Leicester councils. In the traffic area: The ITS has carried out comprehensive data capture of SCOOT traffic data simultaneously with roadside pollutant concentrations and probe vehicle pollution monitoring. A microscopic simulation model has been integrated with the SCOOT system so that the data from the detectors drives the vehicles in the microscopic model. The model will be used to predict pollutant emissions. The model is being calibrated against measured traffic and noise level measurement. The model will be used to investigate the complex relationships between traffic, emissions and pollutant levels for various meteorological conditions.

Marie Curie Training Site TMS European Commission from January 2002 to December 2005 Grant holder: Dr S M Grant-Muller The Traffic, Modelling and Safety Marie Curie Training Site is one of two sites for which ITS gained international recognition under the EU FP5 programme. Students registered for PhD study in Europe are able to benefit from the opportunity for supervision and training by leading researchers in this field. Topics researched by Marie Curie Fellows to date include (i) A new approach to estimating the environmental impacts of road transport and (ii) Use of Neural Networks to model roadside pollutant concentrates.

RUPERT (Reducing Urban Pollution & Exposure from Road Traffic) Department of Health from October 2002 to September 2004 A Chaudry, Dr H Chen, Dr A Namdeo, Grant holder: Prof MC Bell and Dr H Chen Collaborators: University of Bradford, Building Research Establishment In collaboration with the University of Bradford and BRE, this project develops an innovative modelling framework for NO2, CO and PM to simulate personal exposures of different population groups across a city, and to assess the impact of roadside concentrations on these exposures. This has been achieved by modelling the frequency distribution of personal exposures (PEFDs) as a function of urban background and roadside concentrations under different traffic conditions. The modelling framework combines new and existing models relating traffic and air pollution data, with particular emphasis of the impact of congestion, and an existing probabilistic model of air pollution exposure.

The modelling framework is parameterised and applied using data from Leicester and possibly extended to York. The relationships between predicted PEFDs across the city and outdoor concentrations provide a basis from which to estimate the potential health benefits of measures to reduce concentrations at roadside and urban background locations, based on results of time-series studies. To assess the personal exposures, more than 4000 road links in Leicester have been characterised into four groups using the k-means algorithm. In addition, the use of neural networks as a means of roadside pollution prediction has been investigated using the SCOOT data (i.e. M02, A02) and metrological conditions (e.g. wind speed, wind direction and temperature). A comparison between the two neural networks developed shows that both models are able to explain about 77% and 65% of the CO and NO2 variations respectively. A sensibility analysis has been carried out in order to determine which of the input variables were mostly important to the estimation of the pollutant concentrations. It shows that the weather data plays the most important role in the formation process of the concentrations. The transferability of the trained neural networks has also been tested with data form another road intersection in Leicester. The results show that the neural networks still perform well. Intensive data analysis reveals that both the RPM and AURN data have significant diurnal, day-of-week and seasonal variation, corresponding to local traffic conditions.

DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollutants and their Penetration into the Local Environment).

EPSRC from April 2002 to March 2006 J E Tate, Dr A Namdeo, Dr H Chen Grant holder: Professor M C Bell Collaborators: Universities of Cambridge, Surrey, Bristol and Westminster, Imperial College London, Met Office This is a collaborative project with LANTERN partners ITS, ERRI (GEA) and the School of Civil

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Engineering (SoC) University of Leeds, Universities of Cambridge, Surrey, Bristol and Westminster, Imperial College London, Met Office. DAPPLE is a four year project involving six universities and funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). DAPPLE's aim is to increase our understanding of vehicle emissions, pollutant dispersion and exposure to pollution in realistic urban environments, to such an extent that makes possible the improvements necessary to enable the better planning and management of urban air quality needed to make our cities healthier and more pleasant places in which to live and work. The research includes wind tunnel modelling, computer simulations, field work and analysis. The research teams are working closely with the users of the project output (e.g. local authorities and government agencies) to ensure that deliverables are of real and practical value.

The field work is based in the area around the intersection between Marylebone Road and Gloucester Place in central London. It involves vehicle movement monitoring, wind and pollution measurements, tracer dispersion studies, and personal exposure measurement. The DAPPLE project is a mostly field based campaign aiming to understand the influence of urban traffic and urban junction topographies on the dispersion of pollutants, and is based in London. So far a fourweek campaign has been carried out in London (April 2003) with air flow, traffic and pollutant measurements provided by LANTERN consortium members in several locations around the junction. The flow measurements are supporting the evaluation of a tracer release experiment that took place in the middle of the campaign in order to provide understanding of how an accidental release may disperse through London streets. ITS with support from SoC is setting up the database for Marylebone SCOOT Region in London and ITS will implement the WebCOMIS and ETEM algorithms. Traffic surveys have taken place to validate the SCOOT model and pollution monitoring using roadside monitors and the mobile laboratory have taken place. The Emissions from ETEM will be input to ADMS and the roadside measured levels compared with predicted.

Professor Joe Beebe, NCVECS (US), Visiting Fellowship.

EPSRC from May 2002 to April 2004 Commissioning LANTERN infrastructure associated with measuring transient engine emissions J E Tate Grant holder: Professor M C Bell.

Collaborating partners: Energy and Resources Research Institute (ERRI), University of Leeds.

This EPSRC visiting fellowship is allowing Prof Joe Beebe the opportunity to provide unique specialist technical input into the procurement, testing and commissioning of the LANTERN infrastructure associated with vehicle emissions.

Joe is working jointly with ITS and ERRI. Infrastructure being commissioned includes: dynamic engine dynamometer, fast response and standard emission analysers, in-vehicle mass

based emissions instrumentation (Horiba OBS 1300), and an instrumented vehicle for driver behaviour and emissions studies.

Future Urban Technologies (FUTURES) – Scoping Study EPSRC from March 2003 to February 2004 Dr P Goodman, Dr A Namdeo. Grant holder: Professor M C Bell Collaborating partners: Energy and Resources Research Institute (ERRI), University of Leeds, Transport Research Group, University of Southampton, Institute of Sound and Vibration Research, University of Southampton, Unit for Transport & Society, University of the West of England, Bristol, Centre for Human Service Technology, University of Southampton, Intelligence, Agents, Multimedia Group, University of Southampton, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) FUTURES (FUTure URban TechnologiES) is one of four transport research consortia within the EPSRC’s “Towards a Sustainable Urban Environment” Programme. The FUTURES consortium is comprised of six main research groupings in four institutions. The consortium possesses a collective and complementary expertise and track record in the understanding, development and application of transport and transport-related technologies. It also harnesses an understanding of people, systems and vehicles, which FUTURES believes are the three key ‘actors’ in the use of new technologies to pursue sustainable urban mobility. The overriding priority of the consortium is to conduct high quality research, to investigate and promote the role of new technologies in achieving sustainable urban mobility.

The main proposal of the FUTURES consortia has already been submitted to the EPSRC during Autumn 2003, after development during the scoping study process. The scoping study involved both new research and extensive consultation with urban environment stakeholders including central and local government and government agencies, transport service providers and technology providers.

RETEMM (Real World Traffic Emissions Monitoring and Modelling) EPSRC from October 2003 to September 2007 H Chen, A Namdeo, J Tate Grant Holder: Prof M Bell Collaborators: Energy & Resources Research Institute (University of Leeds), City Councils of York, Leeds, and Leicester, Ford An EPSRC award of £624k has been awarded across ITS, ERRI(GEA) and School of Civil Engineering (SoC). The RETEMM project will research real-world regulated and unregulated emissions with low time resolution to be achieved through in-vehicle and dynamometer measurements. RETEMM will study the effect of driver behaviour on exhaust emissions for vehicles driven in a range of urban traffic conditions; busy, quiet, congested, in cities, along different road types and across various junction geometries, to produce data suitable for

the development of microscopic traffic emissions models. Building on earlier work, the emissions measurements will include cold starts for winter and summer and will seek to investigate the speciation of the cocktail of exhaust gases and explore how the levels vary across the spectrum of vehicles in the UK fleet.

The results will improve the emissions prediction algorithm based on the traffic characteristics data from SCOOT, (Split Cycle offset Optimisation Technique) and demonstrate the transferability of the results in London. This RETEMM project will use state of art equipment made available from the EPSRC: JIF award, and collect data of a volume and nature that will be unique in the world.

IMAGINE (Improved Methods for the Assessment of the Generic Impact of Noise in the Environment) EU Sixth Framework from December 2003 to December 2006 Dr P Goodman, Grant holder: Prof MC Bell In response to the need for strategic noise maps as required under the EU Directive 2002/49/EC, improved assessment methods for environmental noise will be required. Noise from any major noise source, be it major roads, railways, airports or industrial activities in agglomerations, needs to be included in the noise mapping. For road and rail, improved methods will be developed in the 5th Framework Harmonoise project. These methods will be adopted to develop methods for aircraft and industrial noise in the IMAGINE. Noise source databases to be developed in IMAGINE for road and rail sources will allow a quick and easy implementation of the methods in all member states. Measured noise levels can add to the quality of noise maps because they tend to have better credibility than computed levels. Guidelines for monitoring and measuring noise levels will be developed to produce a combined product (measurement and computation) that has high quality and high credibility. Noise action plans will be based on strategic noise maps. The IMAGINE project will develop guidelines for noise mapping that will make it easy and straightforward to assess the efficiency of such action plans. Traffic flow management will be a key element of such action plans, both on a national and a regional level. Noise mapping will be developed into a dynamic process rather than a static presentation of the situation. IMAGINE will provide the link between Harmonoise and the practical process of producing noise maps and action plans. It will establish a platform where experts and end users can exchange their experience and views. This platform should continue after the project and provide a basis for exploitation of the IMAGINE results.

ECONOMICS AND BEHAVIOUR Better targeted marketing of public transport through understanding of non-users misperceptions EPSRC from December 2000 to April 2004 J Beale. Grant holder : Professor P W Bonsall

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Collaborating partner: West Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive The project seeks to investigate the extent to which mode choice decisions are based on travellers’ inaccurate assumptions about modal attributes and to establish whether targeted marketing might help to correct some of these inaccurate assumptions and hence increase use of public transport. Following a literature review and focus groups to determine the factors affecting mode choice for local journeys, a questionnaire was designed to ascertain travellers’ perceptions of the journey from Horsforth to Leeds by bus and by car and their views as to the importance and quality of key attributes of the alternative modes. The results from this survey were then analysed and compared with objective data to determine what aspects of the journey were inaccurate and which inaccuracies were most likely to be favouring use of car rather than bus. The most notable findings were that the most pronounced inaccuracies related to the car mode, which was seen in an overly rosy light and that non-bus users were inclined to exaggerate the disadvantages of bus use.

A marketing campaign, designed to correct these biases, was devised and implemented by Metro, with whom we are working on this project. A follow-up survey was conducted to see whether the targeted marketing has had any discernible effect on attitudes or behaviour (the survey included a control group who did not receive the targeted marketing). The results suggested that the marketing had had a positive effect on the attitudes of people who had been regular bus users at the time of the first survey but that it had had a negative effect on the attitudes of non users. We also noted differences in the response according to age and gender.

Explanations for this result have been sought in psychological and marketing literature. A second marketing campaign, designed to appeal to non bus users, was conducted and its results will be evaluated.

Publication (paper by Bonsall et al at TRB) Integrating Transport and eCommerce in Logistic Supply Chains (ITeLS) DfT LINK from May 2001 to August 2004 Dr A S Fowkes, D Johnson and J D Shires. Grant holders: Professor P J Mackie, Dr A S Fowkes Collaborating partners: Cardiff University, University of Ulster This project is now nearing completion, with the first dissemination conference held in July 2003 and a second planned for 6 October 2004. The Leeds ITS contribution has included the specification of scenarios for testing purposes, the development of a cost model, and the construction of a simple quick test computer spreadsheet model.

Quality bus partnerships and market structure DETR from May 1999 to March 2003 Dr A L Bristow, Prof P J Mackie, J D Shires, Dr J P Toner, G A Whelan, Grant holder: Prof P J Mackie

Collaborating partners : Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford The project aimed to provide a factual and theoretical analysis of effects of Quality Partnerships to date on competitive behaviour and market structure, to monitor any such effects during the course of the project and to consider future effects, particularly with reference to legally backed partnerships. A model of the bus market with the capacity to address competition issues has been developed, tested and applied in this study and in work for CfIT ‘Achieving Best Value for Public Support in the Bus Industry’ as well as in this work. In this study quality enhancement and fare reduction were both found to be effective ways of increasing economic welfare relative to frequency enhancement for the relatively high frequency corridors tested given the fare and service elasticities and values of quality used. Quality packages were beneficial to both the operators and to society as a whole given the elasticities, costs and traffic densities tested. However, without some form of revenue or capital contribution from operators, there is no direct benefit to the local authority. This is a structural weakness in the incentives to create quality partnership arrangements. In general, our work suggests that quality measures are unlikely to impact significantly on the competitive environment. Competition is not usually a sustainable outcome. Where quality enhancements do stimulate competition, such competition is likely to be in the service rather than the price dimension. Moreover, such service competition may not be beneficial in welfare terms. However, the implication is that the natural outcome is some form of weak monopoly under which the gains from publicly funded quality measures are partially captured in enhanced monopoly rents to bus operators. Note that operators who are effectively maximising patronage subject to a minimum profit or margin constraint will be incentivised to pass at least some of the benefits on to consumers. This type of objective is consistent with public statements by bus operators about their objectives and with the less than unit fare elasticities observed in the market-place. This does raise the question of propublic interest regulation of the bus industry.

Implementing pricing reform in transport – effective use of research on pricing in Europe (IMPRINT-EUROPE) EU Fifth Framework Programme from April 2001 to March 2004 B Matthews, B Menaz Grant holder: Professor C A Nash Collaborating partners: ISIS (IT); FAV (DE); TNO (NL); BUTE (HU) The principal purpose of this project is to bring together policy-makers, operators, researchers and other stake-holders in order to promote the implementation of the required changes to transport prices. Papers and conclusions from the first four seminars are now on the website.

An additional seminar focusing particularly on the needs of the newly associated states and an additional workshop focusing on the proposed

revision of the Eurovignette directive were held in October 2003 and the final conference, which included a day of high profile contributions at the European Parliament, was held in February 2004. The reports of these three events will soon also appear on the website.

Methods of improving our understanding of the processes by which transport choices are made and the factors which affect these DfT from October 2002 to September 2003 Grant holder: Dr R Batley The focus of this project is on the representation, by means of mathematical modelling, of the discrete choice behaviour of individuals. These models are routinely applied to the forecasting of aggregate market share in a myriad of commercial and public policy contexts. How many people will choose Pepsi over Coke? How many commuters will take the bus to work rather than the car?

A range of competing model forms for discrete choice have been proposed in the literature, an important classification being the behavioural paradigm on which each model is founded. By the far the most popular paradigm, at least in terms of frequency of application, has been that of Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). A key feature of RUM is that it permits consistency between discrete choice behaviour and the fundamental principles of microeconomic theory.

Despite its popularity, a frequent criticism of RUM is that it offers a poor representation of how individuals cognitively process discrete choice tasks. Emanating from mathematical psychology has been a number of models that seek to address this critique; among the better known is the Elimination-By-Aspects (EBA) model of Tversky.

Although they differ fundamentally in terms of behavioural paradigm, several prominent authors - including Nobel prize winners - have considered the degree of equivalence between RUM and EBA. McFadden used the phrase ‘practically indistinguishable’. Tversky and Sattath wrote that they were ‘sufficiently close’.

The project re-considers the issue of equivalence between RUM and EBA. What do we mean by equivalence? Why is equivalence important or not? Our project presents a new analysis suggesting that the prominent authors were somewhat tentative in their conclusions. More specifically, particular forms of RUM are shown to be mathematically equivalent to particular forms of EBA, and vice versa. The implications of equivalence are considered, and illustrated by means of a stated preference investigation of car purchase choice.

Fares cross elasticities Strategic Rail Authority from January 2003 to February 2003 J Toner, J Shires. Grant holder: Dr M R Wardman Collaborating partners: Jacobs The aim of this research was to estimate up-todate cross elasticities between different ticket types to contribute to the review of fares

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regulation conducted by the Strategic Rail Authority. Cross elasticities were required for different train operating companies and the different range of tickets that they offer. The approach taken was to use economic theory to deduce cross elasticities from evidence on conditional elasticities, the market shares of different tickets and diversion factors. The latter indicate the degree of switching between ticket types and a large programme of market research was conducted to obtain better evidence about them.

Forecasting handbook First from May 2003 to November 2003 Dr G A Whelan, J Shires. Grant holder: Professor P J Mackie The Institute for Transport Studies has recently been commissioned by First to develop a demand forecasting framework and forecasting handbook. The model has an aggregate elasticity structure which allows for competition between time periods, ticket types and other modes. The handbook is similar to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook used in the rail industry and documents evidence and parameters relevant to forecasting. The overall objective of the project is to assist in First’s medium to longterm business planning process.

Freight user benefits Strategic Rail Authority from June 2003 to March 2004 P Balmforth, S Hoque. Grant holder: Dr A S Fowkes Collaborating partners: Bouz Allen Hamilton The study of Freight User Benefits began by reviewing past work in the area, and selecting two survey methodologies to take forward. ITS undertook one of these: a Leeds Adaptive Stated preference (LASP) survey of 49 persons connected with freight mode choice decisions, mostly the distribution managers of shippers.

Markets covered were coal, metals, auto, express, stone, construction, petrol/chemicals, general merchandise and containers. Attributes valued included modal penalty, scheduled journey time, delay uncertainty, and forced returnings of journeys.

Rail research UK EPSRC from April 2003 to July 2006 Dr M R Wardman, Dr A F Fowkes, D Johnson, B Menaz, J D Shires, G A Whelan. Grant holder: Professor C A Nash ITS are members of the new Universities’ Rail Research Centre, Rail Research |UK, which is a consortium of 7 Universities, led by Birmingham and Southampton. ITS is leading a project on the role of rail in integrated transport policy, and participating in a further project on rail user needs, in both cases jointly with the University of Southampton. The work in the first year of the projects has concentrated on identifying alternative roles for rail seen by stakeholders and pressure groups, alternative future scenarios and what is currently known about user needs for passenger and freight transport. The next stage

will be a review of models to see what enhancements are necessary to be able to model the sort of alternatives coming out of this first stage.

Generalised journey time Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (ATOC) from May 2003 to March 2004 G A Whelan. Grant holder: Dr Mark Wardman The aim of this study is to evaluate how the railway industry forecasts changes in timetable related service quality and to enhance the current procedure to include access to and egress from the rail network. A large amount of ticket sales data, forming over 50,000 stationto-station demand observations, is being analysed and a wide range of different formulations are being compared. These include: the traditional railway industry approach of generalised journey time, a composite term covering time, frequency and interchange; the more conventional generalised cost approach; and the estimation of separate elasticities to each aspect of service quality. Particular attention is being paid to variation in elasticities.

Prediction Of the rffects of the E-economy on Transport (POET) EC Fifth Framework from November 2002 to March 2005 Dr P E Firmin. Grant holder: Professor P W Bonsall Collaborating partners: Rand Europe, EU DG TREN This project seeks to develop a basis for predicting the effects of developments in the eeconomy on passenger travel and freight traffic.

It involves literature reviews, formulation of an analytical framework, development of scenarios, collection of case study data, calibration of models and prediction of effects for a number of European city regions.

The Leeds input to the project have included a review of technological developments affecting passenger travel, contributions to the development of an analytical framework (a “system diagram” and associated “choice profiles”) for passenger travel decisions, and the development of a questionnaire seeking firms’ expectations of the effect of developments in communications technologies on the amount of teleworking and business travel likely to be done by their employees.

Publication: paper presented at TRB in Washington, January 2004.

POLICY AND APPRAISAL Measuring pedestrian accessibility EPSRC from July 2001 to March 2004 C E Kelly Grant holders/authors: F C Hodgson, M Page, Dr M R Tight Collaborating partners : The Pedestrians Association, City of York Council The reasons why people choose to walk and the physical factors which influence their decisions is one of the least understood areas of transport, though also one of the most important given the reliance of many people on walking and the

Government’s stated aim to replace some car based journeys with walk. This research project aims to address this by looking in detail at attitudes and perceptions towards walking and at the perceived and real barriers which exist.

The project will look into the feasibility of developing a tool which can be used by local authorities and other practitioners to evaluate existing pedestrian provision and to help provide guidance on ways in which that provision can be improved.

The work has involved the use of a variety of survey techniques including interviews with experts and the public; focus groups; a quantitative survey of pedestrian attitudes using SP techniques; and a priority evaluator approach or some other means, and finally observations of pedestrian behaviour. Survey data is still being analysed.

Integrated Appraisal of Spatial Economic and Network Effects of Transport Investments and Policies (IASON) EU Fifth Framework Programme from April 2001 to December 2003 J Nellthorp, Dr S M Grant-Muller Grant holder: Professor P J Mackie Collaborating partners : TNO Inro (NL); University Kiel (D); University Groningen (NL); FUA (NL); ME&P (UK); TRANSMAN (HU); IWW (D); IRPUD (D) This recently completed research project explored some of the most challenging areas of cost-benefit analysis, with strong links to landuse and transport modelling and computable general equilibrium models. The findings addressed the treatment of network effects and ‘secondary impacts’ of transport investment. For project deliverables visit www.wt.tno.nl/iason/.

Behavioural response and life style change in moving to low carbon transport futures Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research September 2001 to November 2003 A Pridmore, P Balmforth Grant holders: Dr A L Bristow, Dr M R Tight and Professor A D May Collaborating partner: SPRU, University of Sussex A major research project awarded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, which is itself funded by three major research councils (EPSRC, ESRC and NERC). The project commenced in September 2001. The focus is on travel by individuals and the forms of transport strategy that would be required to meet stringent CO2 reduction targets in the long term.

Early activities included the review of scenarios for climate change reduction and the derivation of CO2 reduction targets for the transport sector (Pridmore et al 2003a). The project then explored ways in which these targets to reduce personal land based travel could be met through the development of “cartoon” transport strategies (Pridmore et al 2003b). This process involved consultation with experts and a Delphi survey. The final stage saw the development of a computer based survey tool and it’s implementation in an exploratory household

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survey to ascertain the adaptation strategies that households would pursue and the most acceptable pathways to carbon reduction. The overall findings suggest that it is unlikely that technological development alone will deliver cuts in CO2 at a level to deliver stabilisation targets. While some behavioural change could be possible, this is perceived to be limited.

Action is therefore required sooner rather than later to encourage and facilitate behavioural shift (Bristow et al, forthcoming b) Road user charging and social exclusion DTLR from October 1999 to April 2003 C Kelly Grant holder: Professor P W Bonsall This project sought to identify the characteristics of individuals who would be affected by each of a series of alternative road charging scenarios for Leeds. A method was developed which uses census and geographical data to infer key characteristics (including disability, gender, income level and trip purpose) for individual drivers within a trip matrix. The select-link analysis in the SATURN assignment model then identifies which of the drivers would be affected by a given road pricing scheme and to what extent. The characteristics of drivers affected by each of a range of different schemes (with different bases for charging, different geographical boundaries, different exemptions etc.) were identified and conclusions were drawn on the implications that the design of the cordons and/or the charging systems have for the incidence of exclusion.

Publication: paper by Bonsall and Kelly at ETC 2003 in Strasburg Procedures for Recommending Optimal Sustainable Planning of European City Transport Systems (PROSPECTS) EU from February 2000 to January 2003 Dr S P Shepherd, B Matthews, M Page, Professor P W Bonsall, Professor A D Pearman Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaborators: TOI (NO); KTH (S); VTT (FIN); UPM (E); TUW (A); David Simmonds Consultancy, MVA Ltd. (UK) PROSPECTS has developed guidelines for European cities on the formulation of optimal integrated transport and land use strategies.

Three guidebooks have been produced. The first a Decision-makers’ guide covers the logical process for developing and implementing a sustainable land use/transport strategy. It is aimed primarily at senior policy makers and at members of the public involved in advising on strategies. It is available in six languages (English, French, German, Italian, Spanish and Swedish). The Methodological guidebook provides detailed guidance to professionals on the tools available, with each section referenced from the relevant application areas in the Decision-Makers’ guidebook. It describes the methods used in detail and provides guidance on their application, current limitations and possible future enhancements. It also provides examples from the PROSPECTS case studies and discusses our experience in using the

proposed methodology. The Policy Guidebook provides guidance on the appropriateness of each identified transport and land use policy instrument, and their contributions alone or as part of a package of instruments. It is aimed at all those involved in policy making and the opportunity has been taken to incorporate our results into a Web based knowledgebase KonSULT (see separate entry).

KonSULT (Knowledgebase on Sustainable Land use and Transport) Rees Jeffreys/DTLR/EPSRC from January 2001 to April 2004 B Matthews, Dr A F Jopson, Dr N W Marler, J Shires, J Groves (School of the Environment) Grant holders: Professor A D May, Professor S M Macgill (Environment Centre) KonSULT is a web-based information source for policy makers and professionals on the performance of the full range of possible urban land use and transport policy instruments. It provides an introduction to transport policy formulation, and establishes a logical structure in which each policy instrument is assessed from first principles in terms of its impacts on demand, supply and costs, and hence of its contribution to achieving a set of policy objectives and overcoming a given list of problems. Subsequent sections provide case studies drawn from international experience, consider the contexts in which each instrument is best applied, and assess the opportunities for enhancing the instrument by combining it with others in an integrated strategy. KonSULT is hosted on Elsevier's TransportConnect website: http://www.elseviersocialsciences.com/transport/k onsult/index.html. At present KonSULT contains details on some 40 policy instruments, with the remainder being covered in less detail. Further development is taking place in connection with a series of related research projects.

Achieving Sustainability in Transport and Land Use (ASTRAL) EU Fifth Framework Programme from June 2001 to December 2003 B Matthews, Dr S P Shepherd Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaborating partners : ESS (AT); LT Consultants (FIN); VTT (FIN); ISIS (I); ENEA (I) ASTRAL provides coordination between ten projects focusing on transport, land use and sustainability in the European Commission's City of Tomorrow programme. The first dissemination workshop, hosted by the European Commission and the European Parliament, was attended by over 150 delegates from member states and accession countries, including national, regional and city representatives, international and national researchers, other stakeholders, MEPs and members of the Commission. A final dissemination workshop was subsequently held in Budapest City Hall. They provided an opportunity for delegates both to learn about the research programme and to contribute to recommendations for the dissemination and extension of the research programme. Key

messages included the need to disconnect transport growth from economic growth; the importance of intra-generational equity issues; the implications of time lags in the policy process, particularly in terms of land use interventions; the need to help cities tackle today’s problems as well as researching future solutions; the importance of synergy between the research projects (a key focus of ASTRAL); the need to identify and disseminate good practice; the potential of citizen education and awareness campaigns in enhancing sustainability; the links between transport, land use and Europe’s unique cultural heritage; and the case for policy intervention at a European level.

The principal achievements to date have been the identification of a set of common research themes on which collaboration between the projects should focus, and the identification of future research needs through a first dissemination workshop with end users. Other outputs are a summary of 40 related regional, national and international research projects in the subject area, and an interactive website for project partners and end users.

A dedicated website, www.lutr.net, has been established, and contains descriptions of all projects, details of the case study cities, an annotated bibliography, contact details and a news section, as well as a full text search facility.

Integrated approaches to influencing car use EPSRC from October 2000 to March 2004 Dr A Jopson, S Gawthorpe, J Guiver Grant Holders: Professor A D May, Dr M R Tight Collaborating partners : Metro, City of York Council, Leeds City Council (UK) This research aims to discover whether there are complementary benefits to be gained from using attitudinal and behavioural measures (awareness campaigns and company travel plans) in combination with engineering and physical restrictions to influence levels of demand for car based transport in urban areas. The research is especially topical given the current emphasis on integrated transport strategies. The research will provide further evidence to demonstrate whether such combined strategies provide extra benefits over and above the individual effects of measures. The particular novelty of this proposal is in the use of each type of measure to enhance the design of the other and through the detailed experimental design enabling the assessment of the performance of the two types of measures on their own and when combined.

Two rounds of surveys have been completed with panels in each of the two cities. These have examined behavioural changes resulting from the ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ measures implemented. A third round of surveys is currently underway which will involve examination of subjects’ responses to hypothetical changes to the transport system.

Mobile network ESRC from June 2001 to June 2003 Grant holder: F C Hodgson, Professor J Urry

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(University of Lancaster) Collaborating partners : For a full list of collaborators see http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/mobilenetwor k/mobilenetwork.html The Mobile Network seminar series is the first of its kind in the UK. The main aim of the seminar series is to develop social science theories, tools and findings to comprehend the significance of current and probable future patterns of social life and transport developing through the next century. The organisers of the seminar series are Frances Hodgson, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds and John Urry, Professor of Sociology, Lancaster University. The seminar series operates by bringing together transport researchers and social scientists. The seminar series has now finished but details about the seminars and background papers are available on the website http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects.mobile network/mobilenetwork.html Proposals are in place to continue the seminar series into 2005.

Enhancing the road travel experience Rees Jeffreys from April 2002 to March 2004 PW Bonsall and J Beale. Grant holder: Professor P W Bonsall Collaborating partner: TRL Ltd. This project is being conducted in collaboration with Neil Paulley and Annette Pedler of TRL Ltd. The project aims to establish the expectations and aspirations of road users (car drivers and passengers; pedestrians; cyclists; motorcyclists; taxi, bus and coach passengers; PSV and freight drivers) and to examine the extent to which current policies and actions by providers of roads, and the services using them, are likely to meet these expectations and aspirations. Where a gap is apparent, the reasons for this will be examined and, where appropriate, recommendations made for remedial actions or further research.

The research has involved a substantial literature review covering past investigations of road user opinions, focus groups and interviews with drivers and fleet operators, and an investigation of what a road-user might “reasonably” expect in terms of level of service.

A major survey of road users and providers has been conducted and has revealed significant differences in the priorities between those who use the roads and the authorities and professionals who provide them. We have also noted differences between the problems that users regard as important for “other people” and those that they experience themselves; the tendency being for most issues to be seen as more of a problem for other people. Interesting differences have also emerged in the perception of problems by people with different socioeconomic characteristics.

Marie Curie Training Site EPA European Commission from January 2002 to December 2005 Grant holder: Dr S M Grant-Muller The Economic, Policy and Appraisal Marie Curie

Training Site is one of two sites for which ITS gained international recognition under the EU FP5 programme. The site provides an opportunity for PhD students in Europe to benefit from supervision and training by leading researchers in this field. Topics researched by Marie Curie Fellows to date include (i) CGE models for evaluating climate change due to Transport and (ii) Tradeable mobility rights: feasibility and socio-economic issues, (iii) Rail ownership models in Europe.

M42 ATM Highways Agency through Mott Macdonald from September 2002 to August 2007 Professor M C Bell, Professor PWP Bonsall, Professor O M J Carsten, Dr H Chen, S Gawthorpe A H Jamson, Dr R Liu, J E Tate and Dr Tri Tjahono Grant holder: Dr S M Grant-Muller The Active Traffic Management project for Junctions 3A-7 of the M42 will be one of the Highways Agency’s largest and most significant implementation of ATM to date. ITS is advising on the assessment approach for establishing whether individual (and groups of) operational regimes have had a significant impact. Primary indicators will include impacts on safety and the environment as well as the performance of the traffic systems overall. Work to date has involved the specification of a comprehensive assessment methodology and preliminary analysis of the ‘before’ data.

Aircraft noise perception, representation, measurement, modelling and valuation: an exploratory study EUROCONTROL (2002-2003) Dr M Wardman, Dr A L Bristow Grant holder: Dr A L Bristow Collaborating partners: FaberMaunsell An exploratory study funded by EUROCONTROL to explore the potential for the use of stated preference (SP) techniques in the valuation of aircraft noise. Focus groups were conducted at three European Airports to explore issues relating to annoyance and possible presentation methods for the stated preference. The main survey instrument sought attitudinal and socioeconomic data alongside the SP experiments and a contingent valuation question. Surveys were carried out of residents around three airports, Manchester, Lyon and Bucharest, with sample sizes of 200 at each. Three innovative experimental SP designs were used. The results were highly credible and include values for different numbers of flights and by time of day.

We conclude that SP techniques are appropriate for valuation in this context. The project report, Bristow and Wardman (2003) may be found on the EUROCONTROL website, papers include: Wardman et al (2003) examining theoretical issues relating to the SP experiments and Bristow et al (forthcoming a) giving an overview of the SP and annoyance results. A follow up piece of work has been secured to take the analysis further by incorporating modelled noise levels.

Aircraft noise perception, representation, measurement, modelling and valuation: further work EUROCONTROL (2003-2004) Dr M Wardman, Dr Richard Batley and Dr A L Bristow Grant holder: Dr A L Bristow This project aims to fully exploit the social survey and stated preference data set obtained in the original study in order to obtain further insights into the perception and valuation of noise and annoyance from airports. The main objectives of the first phase are: to link the modelled noise contours to respondents’ valuations, attitudes and levels of annoyance; to obtain a better understanding of individuals attitudes to annoyance and how these attitudes vary according to socio-economic and cultural dimensions; to exploit the links between the SP, CVM and attitudinal data sets and to use information from one to enhance the analysis of another.

Critical issues in decarbonising transport Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research August 2002 to July 2003 C Kelly Grant holder: Dr A L Bristow Collaborating partner: IEEP A Tyndall Centre funded project in collaboration with the Institute for European Environmental Policy undertaking a strategic assessment of paths to decarbonising the transport sector.

Review work on trends and drivers of change and the role of technology, led into a consultation exercise. The final report, Skinner et al 2004 is available on the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research website The hydrogen energy economy: its long term role in greenhouse gas reduction Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research April 2001 to March 2004 A Pridmore, M Page, C Kelly: Grant holder: Dr A L Bristow Collaborating partners: CLRC, Rutherford Appleton laboratory, SPRU, University of Sussex.

A major research project awarded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, which is itself funded by three major research councils (EPSRC, ESRC and NERC). The project is led by CLRC, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory and commenced in late 2001. In the first phase work at ITS included a review of the current state of the art of hydrogen in transport. Phase 2 commenced with the development of initial scenarios for hydrogen in the UK (Dutton et al 2003, Watson et al 2004). A spreadsheet model to investigate pathways to 2050 is being developed for all modes of transport for the UK. This will then be used to explore different future scenarios.

Toolkit on economic evaluation World Bank from April 2002 to May 2003 J Nellthorp, J Laird, B Menaz Grant holder: Professor P J Mackie Collaborator F Ahmed, IT Consulting (UK) The purpose of this grant is to provide a toolkit of guidance on the economic appraisal of

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transport projects, which will relate to the World Bank’s general guidance on appraisal (such as the OMS) and specific topic papers on, for example, the appraisal of low volume rural roads. The toolkit contains a framework statement, twenty notes on specific topics in appraisal, and an extended paper on the treatment of poverty and distributive effects in transport appraisal. It is anticipated that the toolkit will be publicly available via the World Bank website. An interim pdf version is available from ITS, contact edell@its.leeds.ac.uk.

Evaluation of the Multi-Modal Studies (EMMS) DfT from September 2002 to June 2003 J Nellthorp, F Hodgson, B Menaz Grant holder: Professor P J Mackie Collaborators: AEA Technology, John Bates Services. (UK) This study was by a consortium of AEA Technology, ITS and John Bates Services for the Department for Transport. It concerned the assessment of the multi-modal studies in terms of the business processes, consultation, stakeholder involvement, modelling and appraisal. It sought to draw conclusions on current practice and guidance and learn lessons for future strategic transport studies. The study was in two stages - first a review of documents, and second a review of key agents such as clients, consultants, national and local stakeholders in selected multi-modal studies. A main report and a report on modelling and appraisal issues have been produced, and it is understood that these will shortly be published

by DfT. Study of Policies regarding Economic instruments Complementing Transport Regulation and the Undertaking of physical Measures (SPECTRUM) European Commission from September 2002 to August 2005 Dr P M Timms, Professor A D May, Professor C A Nash, Dr D S Milne, C Kelly, D Johnson, S Gawthorpe Grant holder: Dr S M Grant-Muller Collaborators: University of Antwerp (BE), University of Oxford (UK), VTT (Fi), Technical University of Vienna (AT), University of Las Palmas (ES), Budapest University of Technology and Economics (Hu), Catholic University of Leuven (BE), ISIS (It), TOI (No), University of Gdansk (Pl) The overall project aim is to develop a theoretically sound framework for defining combinations of economic instruments, regulatory and physical measures in reaching the broad aims set by transport and other relevant policies. Research will assess the extent to which economic transport measures can be substituted for (or work in synergy with) physical and regulatory measures. The framework will cover both urban and interurban contexts, passengers, freight and a wide range of transport instruments. During the first year, work has been completed in specifying the broad structure of the framework and approach to assessment.

Research has taken place to determine

theoretically optimum packages in terms of the high level objective function. The measurement and treatment on impacts has been addressed.

Work on case studies will begin in the coming period to investigate the research questions and populate the framework. See www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/spectrum.

Implementation of Marginal Cost pricing in Transport – Integrated Conceptual and Applied Model analysis (MC-ICAM) EU Fifth Framework programme from April 2001 to June 2003 B Matthews, Dr D S Milne, Dr N Marler, Professor C A Nash, Dr S P Shepherd. Grant holder: Dr E Niskanen Collaborating partners : FUA (NL); KUL (B); TNO (NL); TOI (N); AdpC (B); TAU (IL); RC/AUEB/TRANSLOG (EL); TUD (D); VTI (S); ISIS (I); UFSIA (B); BUTE (HU); NEAP (UK); HUSI (IL); STRAFICA (FIN) This project has examined the barriers to the implementation of more efficient pricing policies in transport, and the constraints on price structures and levels to which these lead. If it is thought that these constraints may be eased over time, then it makes sense to think of an implementation path in which pricing systems are gradually improved over time. Evidence from existing studies, policy papers and discussions with stakeholders has been used to suggest feasible implementation paths for the implementation of marginal social cost pricing as these constraints are lifted, and such paths have been modelled for a variety of urban and inter urban case studies. It is found that substantial benefits may be obtained by tackling the most important problems even with relatively simple pricing mechanisms, and that these measures may actually help acceptance of more sophisticated pricing policies at a later date.

National policy frameworks for urban transport (ARMOUR) EEC from December 2002 to October 2005 FC Hodgson. Grant holder: Professor A D May ISIS (France), Dorsch Consult (Germany) Information is being collected on urban transport policies at a national level in each of the 15 member states, and an assessment is being made of the impacts of those policies. The assessment will be both objective and subjective, involving the collection of a standard set of performance indicators and the conduct of a Europe-wide telephone survey of public perceptions of urban transport policy.

Clarifying sub objectives DfT from January 2003 to March 2004 J Nellthorp, F C Hodgson. Grant holder: Dr A Jopson The introduction of the New Approach to Appraisal (NATA) in 1998 represented a major improvement in transport project appraisal. The inclusion of qualitative objectives was a significant development in the appraisal process. Nevertheless, the definition and assessment of the qualitative objectives is not

underpinned by decades of applied research in the appraisal context as the economic appraisal is. Thus, the qualitative sub-objectives are less well understood and defined, resulting in somewhat subjective assessment. As Guidance on the Methodology for Multi-modal Studies (GOMMMS) – the multi-modal application of NATA – includes additional qualitative objectives and is used to appraise more multimodal strategies and proposals, the objectivity and coverage of the appraisal process could be challenged over its comparatively subjective appraisal of qualitative sub-objectives. This could be particularly true where attitudinal and behavioural projects based around communication to influence mode choice, rather than infrastructure and services changes, are included in the multimodal package. Coverage may be challenged if perceived aspects of a subobjective are omitted from the appraisal. The research underway is seeking to clarify the definition and appraisal of qualitative subobjectives within GOMMMS. Social-psychology research methods and models are being used to study the perceptions of selected qualitative sub-objectives amongst transport users to ascertain a common understanding. This understanding is being used to work towards developing and piloting quantitative assessment criteria, which can be included in the economic appraisal. Case study work us underway to develop this assessment. The work is designed to build on and add value to the existing GOMMMS framework.

Cycle facilities on the university of Leeds campus University of Leeds Estates Service from October 2003 to March 2004 P Envall. Grant holder: P W Bonsall ITS have been commissioned by the University to conduct a review of facilities for cyclists on the campus and to propose alternative strategies for improving the provision of such facilities.

This work is being conducted in the context of the University’s Transport Plan which seeks to reduce the proportion of staff and students driving to the campus and to promote the use of more sustainable modes.

CUTE Japanese Institute for Transport Policy Studies from July 2001 to January 2004 Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaborating partners: JITPS, Universities of Nagoya, Karlsruhe, UC Davis, Southern California, ENTPE The Commission on Urban Transport and the Environment, sponsored by the Nihou Foundation, was established by Professor Nakamura, the Director of JITPS. It has conducted a review of trends in urban transport, their impacts on the local and global environment, the technological and transport policy approaches to addressing these problems, and the approaches appropriate for governments in developed and developing countries and for the international community. It illustrated its conclusion with a set of over twenty case studies

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of cities in the developed and developing world.

The book of its findings is to be published in July 2004.

DISTILLATE Scoping Study EPSRC from January 2003 to March 2004 FC Hodgson, M W Page. Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaborating partners: TRL, University of West of England, University of Westminster, University of York This study, funded as part of the EPSRC’s Sustainable Urban Environment programme, was commissioned to formulate a major programme of research on Design and Implementation Support Tools for Integrated Local Land use, Transport and the Environment (DISTILLATE).

The aim of the consortium, working with 16 local authorities, is to help them achieve a step change in their development and delivery of sustainable integrated urban transport and land use strategies. A series of reviews of the key application areas has been conducted, and will be published in mid 2004.

Exploitation of Transport Research Results via the Web (EXTR@Web) EU Fifth Framework Programme from September 2002 to October 2006 N W Marler, B Matthews, B Menaz Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaborating partners: GCI (Belgium, project coordinator); IABG (Germany); ISIS (France); DITS (Italy); Systema (Greece); Neptune (Belgium); GIE (Romania).

The EXTR@Web project aims to collect, structure, analyse and disseminate transport research results. It covers not only EUsupported research but also nationally financed research in the European Research Area (ERA), as well as selected global transport RTD programmes and projects. This is to be done by providing, promoting and maintaining an electronic hub – a website-based transport research knowledge centre - where policymakers, researchers and other stakeholders will have well-structured and user-friendly access to transport research across Europe. The project and the website will provide profiles of completed and ongoing projects and in many cases give access to project final reports. It will also provide reviews of the research projects, carried out over thirty thematic areas, thus providing access also to the broad implications of the results of the research. The knowledgebase will have a search facility allowing structured searches to be carried out to the user’s requirements. EXTR@Web will also provide a valuable permanent archive of transport research results, including research outputs from FP4 which are currently archived in the EXTRA web site which is to be integrated into the new information system. To date, information has been collected about several thousand transport European and national research projects and work is continuing to obtain summary profiles of these projects and carry out the related thematic reviews. A working

website has also been established to which the incoming information is continually added.

Local transport plan guidance DfT from January to December 2003 S P Shepherd, P M Timms, N W Marler, G Mitchell, G Emberger. Grant holder: Professor A D May This project was a sequel to PROSPECTS, designed to assess whether the Department for Transport might provide fuller guidance on the use of models to assess Local Transport Plans. It was conducted in four stages: a review of the need for, and suitability of, models in assessing the range of possible policy interventions; a survey of five local authorities to understand their level of use of models and the barriers to their under use; an assessment of the potential of sketch planning models as an entry route for strategic analysis of policies and plans; and a workshop at which recommendations were discussed with local authorities. The final report is available, and will be summarised in a paper at the 10th World Conference on Transport Research.

PLanning and Urban Mobility in Europe (PLUME) EU Fifth Framework programme from November 2002 to April 2005 G Emberger, S P Shepherd, P M Timms, B Matthews, Dr A Jopson. Grant holder: Professor A D May Collaboration partners: TTR, ISIS and POLIS PLUME (PLanning and Urban Mobility in Europe) is a Thematic Network within the LandUse and Transportation Research cluster of the City of Tomorrow key action funded by the European Commission DG Research.

The objective of PLUME in general is to facilitate the transfer of innovation in the field of planning and urban mobility from the research community to end-users in the cities of Europe in order to improve urban quality of life.

A central mechanism for achieving this objective is the provision of annual State-of-theArt Reviews (SoARs). Each SoAR is intended to provide a synthesis of research findings and case studies, with recommendations as to which policies, measures and tools are best able to meet the need for sustainable development, taking account of user needs and barriers to implementation.

Beside the SoARs PLUME facilitates meetings between researchers and End users at a series of workshops, where the usefulness and relevance of the themes addressed is verified through discussions with stakeholders, politicians and city authorities.

Sources for the SoARs are the existing 12 LUTR cluster projects (ARTISTS, ASI, CITYFREIGHT, ECOCITY, ISHTAR, PROMPT, PROPOLIS, PROSPECTS, SCATTER, SUTRA, TRANSPLUS, VELO-INFO) and ongoing national and international research activities.

Detailed information (deliverables, SoARS, Synthesis reports, contacts, etc.) can be found under the project website www.lutr.net.

PUBLICATIONS 2003 ALY, E.H.; ELLIOTT, L.; INGHAM, D.B.; DALY E. (2003) Mixed Convection Over a Vertical Surface Embedded in a Porous Medium under the Boundary-Layer Approximation In: Eighth UK National Heat Transfer Conference, Conference CD BATLEY, R.P.; DALY, A.J. (2003) Establishing equivalence between nested logit and hierarchical elimination-by-aspects models In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg BATLEY, R.P.; KNIGHT, M.; TONER, J.P. (2003) A Mixed Logit Model of the Demand for Alternative Fuel Vehicles In: UTSG Conference, 2003 BATLEY, R.P.; TONER, J.P. (2003) Hierarchical Elimination-by-Aspects and Nested Logit Models of Stated Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles In: Association of European Transport Conference, Strasbourg, 8-10 October 2003, PTRC, London BELL, M.C. (2003) Adapting to More Stringent Environment Requirements In: EPSRC Keeping Us Moving, 17 March 2003 BELL, M.C. (2003) Reflections on 35 Years of the UTSG Conference In: 35th UTSG Conference, Loughborough, 2003 BELL, M.C. (2003) TSUG LANTERN, Leeds health, Air pollution, Noise, Traffic Emissions Research Network.

BELL, M.C.; TATE, J.; HODGES, N. (2003) The Role of Intelligent Transport Systems in Supporting Sustainable Transport, ITS (UK) In: NEC Conference presentation, 7-8 April 2003, Birmingham BENNETT, S.G.; WATSON, A.S.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Realising an Integrated Database for the Integrated City In: UTSG Annual Conference : 2003 , UTSG BODDY, J.W.; DIXON, N.S.; SMALLEY, R.J.; TATE J.E.; TOMLIN, A.S. (2003) An intercomparison between road-side concentrations of traffic related pollutants in two urban streets In: The Fourth International Urban Air Quality Conference BODDY, J.W.; DIXON, N.S.; SMALLEY, R.J.; TATE, J.E.; TOMLIN, A.S. (2003) Intercomparison between road-side concentrations of traffic related pollutants in two urban streets In: 4th International Conference on Urban Air Quality, Prague edited by R. S. Sokhi and J. Brechler, University of Hertfordshire , pp.489-492.

BODDY, J.W.; DIXON, N.S.; SMALLEY, R.J.; TATE, J.E.; TOMLIN, A.S. (2003) The dispersion of a traffic-related pollutant in two urban street canyons In: The 12th International Scientific Symposium on Transport and Air Pollution BONSALL, P.W. (2003) Perception of modal attributes In: Understanding the Transport User, London Conferences BONSALL, P.W. (2003) Route choice simulators. In: Selten R (ed.) Human Behaviour and Traffic Networks, Springer Verlag BONSALL, P.W. (2003) Traveller behaviour: decision making in an unpredictable world In: Behavioural Responses to Intelligent Transport Systems , European Commission, Brussels

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BONSALL, P.W.; CARR, J.D. (2003) Perceptions of public transport In: Marketing Public Transport, Paris , Union International des Transport Publics, Paris BONSALL, P.W.; KELLY, C.E. (2003) Road user charging and social exclusion: the impact of a range of charging schemes on at-risk groups In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg , AET London BONSALL, P.W.; MILNE, D.S. (2003) Urban road user charging and workplace parking levies.

In: Preston J and Hine J (eds.) Integrated Futures and Transport Choices, Ashgate BONSALL, P.W.; PALMER, I.A. (2003) Modelling parking behaviour using data from a parking choice simulator. Transportation Research. Part C: Emerging Technologies.

BRISTOW, A.L. (2003) External Costs in the Aviation Industry.

BRISTOW, A.L.; WARDMAN, M.R. (2003) Attitudes Towards and Values of Aircraft Annoyance and Noise Nuisance.

CHEN, H.; MAO, B. (2003) Policy Analysis of Urban Public Transport in Developing Countries: A Case Study of China. 1(3), pp.383-399.

DALY, A.J.; BIERLAIRE, M. (2003) A general and operational representation of GEV models.

DE JONG, G.; DALY, A.J.; PIETERS, M.; VELLAY, C.; HOFMAN, F. (2003) A model for time of day and mode choice using error components logit In: European Transport Conference DUTTON, A.G.; WATSON, J.; BRISTOW, A.L.; PRIDMORE, A.M. (2003) Integrating Hydrogen into the UK Energy Economy In: 1st European Hydrogen Energy Conference (EHEC), Grenoble, France, 2-5 September 2003 EMBERGER, G.; MAY, A.D.; SHEPHERD, S.P.; SUMALEE, A. (2003) Method to Identify Optimal Land Use and Transport Policy Packages In: 9th TRB Conference on the Application of Transportation Planning Methods, Lousiana, USA EMBERGER, G.; SHEPHERD, S.P.; ZHANG, X. (2003) Method to Identify Optimal Land Use and Transport Policy Packages: A Comparison of CBA and Indicator Based Optimisation In: 30th European Transport Forum, October 2003, Strasbourg FIELD D.; MERAT, N. (2003) The effect of eye and head movements on auditory spatial memory In: British Psychological Society FOWKES, A.S.; FIRMIN, P.E.; WHITEING, A.E.; TWEDDLE, G. (2003) Freight Road User Valuations of Three Different Aspects of Delay.

Logistics Solutions, 5(3), pp.15-21.

FOWKES, A.S.; WHITEING, A.E. (2003) The Evaluation of Delays to Freight on the Trunk Road Network.

GOODMAN, P.S.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Validation of the TUNE Microscopic Traffic Noise Model In: 35th UTSG Conference, Loughborough, January 2003 HESS, S.; POLAK, J.; DALY, A.J. (2003) On the performance of the shuffled Halton sequence in the estimation of discrete choice models In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg HILLS, P.J.; LIU, R.; MAY, A.D.; SCHMOECKER, J.; SHEPHERD, S.P. (2003) Characterising

congestion on urban road networks In: 9th World Conference on Transport Research, Seoul, 22-27 July 2001 edited by Park, C-H, Elsevier HINE, J.; WARDMAN, M.R.; STRADLING, S.G. (2003) Interchange and Seamless Travel. In: HINE, J AND PRESTON, J. (EDS.) Integrated Futures and Transport Choices: UK Transport Policy Beyond the 1998 White Paper and Transport Acts, Ashgate, Aldershot, Hants JAENSIRISAK, S.; MAY, A.D.; WARDMAN, M.R. (2003) Acceptability of Road User Charging: The Influence of Selfish and Social Perspectives. Acceptability of Transport Pricing Strategies, Elsevier KURAUCHI, F.; SUMALEE, A.; IIDA, Y. (2003) Road Network Capacity Reliability After a Major Earthquake: A Merit Function Based Approach In: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies , pp.1734-1749.

LIU, R.; BONSALL, P.W.; YOUNG, W. (2003) Modelling safety-related driving behaviour: impacts of parameter values In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg, AET, London LIU, R.; TATE, J.E. (2003) Network effects of intelligent speed adaptation systems.

Transportation Journal.

MACKIE, P.J.; GRANT-MULLER, S.M.; NELLTHORP, J.; PEARMAN, A.D. (2003) Costbenefit analysis of transport projects. UN Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva.

MACKIE, P.J.; NELLTHORP, J. (2003) Transport Appraisal in a Policy Context. In: A.D.Pearman, P. Mackie, J. Nellthorp (ed.) Transport Projects, Programmes and Policies - Evaluation Needs and Capabilities, Ashgate, pp.3-16.

MACKIE, P.J.; WARDMAN, M.R.; FOWKES, A.S.; WHELAN, G.A.; NELLTHORP, J.; BATES, J.J. (2003) Value of Travel Time Savings in the UK. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds in association with John Bates Services.

MARSDEN, G.R. (2003) The multi-modal studies. Institution of Civil Engineers: Transport.

MARSDEN, G.R.; BRACKSTONE, M.; MCDONALD, M. (2003) A comparative assessment of driving behaviours at three sites.

MARSDEN, G.R.; BRACKSTONE, M.; SULTAN, B.; MCDONALD, M. (2003) A comparison of differing driving populations using the ICC FOT scheme In: 82nd TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, USA, Jan 2003 MATTHEWS, B. (2003) How to make best use of the rail network: capacity utilisation policy and a possible role for pricing In: UTSG 35th annual conference, Loughborough MAY, A.D. (2003) Development of an international knowledgebase on urban transport policy instruments In: 9th World Conference on Transport Research, Seoul, 2001, Elsevier MAY, A.D. (2003) Institutional Co-Ordination in the UK: the Strengths and Weaknesses of a Variable System In: ECMT/USDoT Workshop on Fostering Successful Implementation of Sustainable Urban Travel Policies, Washington DC, 2003 MAY, A.D.; JOPSON, A.F.; MATTHEWS, B. (eds.)

(2003) Research Challenges in Urban Transport Policy.

MAY, A.D.; MATTHEWS, B.; SHEPHERD, S.P.; JARVI-NYKANEN, T. (2003) Decision making requirements for the formulation of sustainable urban land use - transport strategies In: 9th World Conference on Transport Research , Elsevier MAY, A.D.; SUMALEE, A. (2003) One Step Forwards, Two Steps Back? An Overview of Road Pricing Applications and Research Outside the US In: Keynote paper: International Symposium on Road Pricing, Key Biscayne, Florida, 2003 MERAT, N. (2003) Loading drivers to their limit: the effect of increasing secondary task on driving In: International driving symposium on human factor in driver assessment, training and vehicle design MERAT, N.; GROEGER, J.A. (2003) Working memory and auditory localization: demand for central resources impairs performance. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology., 56a(3), pp.531-549.

MITCHELL, G.; NAMDEO, A.K.; MAY, A.D.; MILNE, D.S. (2003) The air quality implications of urban road user charging. Traffic Engineering & Control, 44(2), pp.57-62.

MITCHELL, G.; NAMDEO, A.K.; MILNE, D.S.; MAY, A.D. (2003) Road user charging and urban air quality: an empirical study of Leeds, UK. Transportation Research. Part D: Transport & Environment.

NASH, C.A. (2003) Rail reform in Britain and Germany. In: H Sturm, B von Velsen-Zerveck, E Stueber (ed.) Die Viefalt der Dienstleistungsoekonomik. Festschrift fuer Dieter Witt zum 60 Geburtstag, Deutscher Universitaets-Verlag, pp.171-187.

NASH, C.A. (2003) Rail regulation and competition - developments since 1997. In: Julian Hine and John Preston (eds.) Integrated Futures and Transport Choices, Ashgate, pp.241-258.

ONGKITTIKUL S.; SUMALEE, A. (2003) Rail Franchise Bidding Model with Technology Investment Decision: The Stackelberg Game Approach. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 5, pp.3221-3236.

PEARMAN A.D.; MACKIE, P.J.; NELLTHORP, J. (2003) Transport Projects, Programmes and Policies - Evaluation Needs and Capabilities.

Ashgate.

PFFAFFENBICHLER, P.; SHEPHERD, S.P. (2003) A Dynamic Model to Appraise Strategic Land-Use and Transport Policies.

PFFAFFENBICHLER, P.; SHEPHERD, S.P. (2003) The development of a sketch planning model to assess land-use transport policies.

2(3/4).

PRESTON, J.M.; MACKIE, P.J. (2003) Bus regulation - from workhorse to thoroughbred. In: J Hine and J Preston (eds.) Integrated futures and transport choices, Ashgate, pp.225-240.

PRIDMORE, A.M.; BRISTOW, A.L.; MAY, A.D.; TIGHT, M.R. (2003) Climate change, impacts, future scenarios and the role of transport.

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

PRIDMORE, A.M.; BRISTOW, A.L.; MAY, A.D.; TIGHT, M.R. (2003) Low Carbon Transport: Is It Achievable? In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg 8-10 October 2003

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SHEPHERD, S.P. (2003) Towards Marginal Cost Pricing: A Comparison of Alternative Pricing Systems. Transportation, 30(4).

SUMALEE, A. (2003) A Genetic Algorithm and Branch Tree Approach to Optimal Closed Charging Cordon Design In: UTSG Conference, University of Loughborough, UK, 2003 SUMALEE, A. (2003) Optimal Toll Ring Design with Equity Constraint: An Evolutionary Approach. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 5, pp.1813-1828.

SUMALEE, A.; ONGKITTIKUL, S.; JAENSIRISAK, S. (2003) The Trend in European Transport Research and its Implication to Thailand In: National Transport Research Conference, Bangkok, Thailand SUMALEE, A.; SHEPHERD, S.P.; MAY, A.D. (2003) The Effect of Demand Variations on the Location of Optimal Road Pricing Cordons. In: Bell, M G H, Iida, Y (ed.) Transport Network Reliability Analysis, Pergamon SUMALEE, A.; WATLING, D.P. (2003) Travel Time Reliability in a Network with Dependent Link Modes and Partial Driver Response. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation

Studies, 5, pp.1687-1701.

TATE, J.; BEEBE, J.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Fundamental Understanding of Exhaust Emissions In: International Conference on Air Quality Modelling, Prague, Czech Republic, 2003 TATE, J.E. (2003) Roadside aerosol measurements with a fast particulate spectrometer In: JSAE 2003, Japan TATE, J.E.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Network monitoring, modelling and management to aid mitigate the impact of 'event' traffic In: University Transport Studies Group Conference WANG, W.; CHEN, H.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Vehicle Breakdown Duration Modelling. Journal of Transportation and Statistics.

WARDMAN, M.R.; BRISTOW, A.L.; MURPHY, P.A.; HEAVER, C. (2003) Valuation of Aircraft Noise Using Stated Preference Methods Within a Broader Quality of Life Dimension In: European Transport Conference, Strasbourg, 8-10 October 2003 WARDMAN, M.R.; SHIRES, J.D. (2003) Review of Fare Elasticities in Great Britain.

WARDMAN, M.R.; SHIRES, J.D.; LYTHGOE,

W.F.; TYLER J. (2003) The Benefits and Demand Impacts of Regular Train Timetables In: AET European Transport Conference WARDMAN, M.R.; TONER, J.P. (2003) Econometric Modelling of Competition Between Train Ticket Types In: AET European Transport Conference, 8-10 October 2003, PTRC, London WHELAN, G.A.; JOHNSON, D. (2003) Modelling the Impact of Alternative Fare Structures In: European Transport Conference, 2003 ZITO, P.; CHEN, H.; BELL, M.C. (2003) Predicting Roadside CO and NO2 Concentrations Using the Instrumented City Facility and Neural Networks. Journal of Transportation and Statistics.

WORKING PAPERS 2003 WARDMAN, M; SHIRES, J. Review of Fares Elasticities in Great Britain. ITS Working Paper 573, University of Leeds.

SHIRES, J; JOHNSON, D; NASH, C A; TYLER, J R. Appraisal Framework and Results for Testing a Regular Interval Rail Timetable. ITS Working Paper 578, University of Leeds.

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