Paul Dykstra provides a market update

By Paul Dykstra

Market update

According to the CAB Insider dated Aug. 10, federally inspected (FI) slaughter last week totaled 651,000 head. That’s 18,000 fewer than the week prior. The lighter volume was a departure in what has been a fairly robust summer season of weekly head count totals, but the recent projection is 660,000. Large beef cow slaughter numbers continue to skew head counts in the FI weekly sum.

Recent packer profit margin estimates are in the $200 to $250 per head range. Fed cattle prices turned around last week with a one dollar per hundred weight (cwt) average increase across the normal six states. Iowa continues to lead the cash market with a high of $147 per cwt in their market. Nebraska feedlots saw $140 to $145 per cwt while still posting disappointing quality grade results compared to the past two years.

At the other end of the spectrum, Texas spot market pricing was from $135 to $136 per cwt and Kansas was $136 to $138 per cwt.

The carcass sales side of the market saw a fairly stable environment, with U.S. Department of Agriculture and Urner Barry reporting prices of either side unchanged. The sideways trending price structure for carcass cutout values is as stable and unmoving as we’ve seen in quite some time.

While minimal, we have observed a positive trend since spring. The early May CAB cutout value of $272 per cwt compares to the latest $282 per cwt last week. It’s a four percent increase in a period that has a fiveyear average price drop of 15 percent.

Competition for more richly-marbled middle meats has been a driver during the summer market and CAB anticipate that to continue as long as the grade underperforms through the fourth quarter.

Premium beef remains in fashion

Since the start of 2022, the national Choice grade percentage posted recordlarge numbers through the first week of June. Easily the highest volume quality grade category, Choice increased specifically due to slippage in the proportion of Prime carcasses.

This year’s Prime grade percentage was not expected to surpass the summer 2020 highs of 10 percent, but the recent drop below eight percent is disappointing to end users trying to fill orders at a reasonable price.

Recent data shows the Choice carcass category declined from 74 percent in the first week of July to 72.4 percent by the month’s end. However, it’s not due to more carcasses receiving the Prime stamp.

Quite the opposite – quality grades are dropping resulting in more Select grade carcasses. The Premium Choice or “upper 2/3’s Choice” category, primarily occupied by the Certified Angus Beef brand, has similarly suffered a volume decline since early May, putting year-to-date carcass production down more than three percent.

Through much of the spring season, the lower quality Select carcass share held steady with the 2021 pattern with a near recordlow volume in the 12 to 15 percent range. However, as the summer fed cattle supply has been ultra-current, particularly in the North, sub-optimal ribeye marbling measurements allowed the Select category to drift higher than 16 percent. This is larger than summer values in the past two years.

This supply data goes against what beef customers increasingly desire and are willing to pay for premium middle meats. To offset this drop, end users have started to suspend higher-quality beef with deep chill storage process known as “suspended fresh.” This ability to hold beef for months near its freezing point, but still in a fresh state, has elevated buying and storage of premium middle meats before prices soar from fourth quarter demand. What we don’t know is the magnitude of volume that this is happening. This activity has elevated middle meat prices, particularly ribeyes, midway through the third quarter in recent years.

This modern buying strategy and diminishing seasonal access to Prime beef (including the Certified Angus Beef brand) has rapidly elevated the Prime to Choice cutout value spread. The Prime cutout premium to Choice last week at $58.77 per cwt is the same as a year ago. This has generated the top end of the Prime grid premium packer payment of $45 per cwt and a market average of $22 per cwt with the low end of the range at $0 per cwt for Prime, its important readers understand grid marketing formats vary widely, as well as the premiums/discounts relationship to the base price.

Heifer carcass weight factor

It seems we’ve discussed carcass weights too often in the past 36 months, but it tends to be one of the most telling data points in the beef business. The latest data pegs the weighted average steer and heifer carcass weight at 862 pounds, four pounds lighter than the same week a year ago. The lighter trend isn’t surprising for two reasons. First, backlog-induced record high carcass weights were noted in 2020 with the mid-July 873 pound average crushing the 2019 weight for the same period by 33 pound July 2021 summer weights were a bit lighter, but chalked up the second heaviest on record, retreating only six pounds from the prior year’s record.

Early 2022 weights amazingly topped the two previous years from February through early May before healthy packer processing speeds restored currentness to the feeding sector. This summer flipped the script as Northern feedlots pulled cattle ahead and optimally finished pens became hard to find.

Since late April, heifers have factored more prominently in the fed cattle mix than either of the two preceding years. The year-todate 39 percent average of total fed cattle compares to 37 percent in 2020 and 37.5 percent in 2021. As the beef cow herd contracts, more heifer calves find their way to the packing plant.

Since heifers are accounting for a larger share of the fed cattle slaughter and their average carcass weights are 70 pounds lighter than their steer cohorts, this summer’s lighter average carcass weights are partially due to the heifer influence.

Paul Dykstra is the assistant director of supply management and analysis at CAB. He can be reached at pdykstra@certifiedangusbeef.com.

WNRF continued from page 1

says. “The area seemed like it could be a neat, educational, natural resource space on the fairgrounds.”

Partners, including the WNRF, WACD, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, Converse County Conservation District, Wyoming State Forestry, WSF and others, came together to discuss the idea of the project and utilizing the natural space. The initial project area grew into a larger area as partners realized there were other potential areas of runoff at the WSF needing to be diverted. A catchment system was implemented to drain runoff towards the receiving wetland area.

“WNRF initiated this project to conserve and unify the area, prevent runoff from hitting the river and prevent pollution,” says WNRF Executive Director Kelli Little.

Contractors were hired to build a walkway and a drain tile system running parallel to the river all the way down to the wetland area. The project is centralized around a pathway to guide fairgoers and others to water quality exhibits and demonstration sites.

The project showcases a variety of innovative conservation approaches and technologies and can be used as an outdoor classroom to educate on water quality and effective stewardship. The drainage area was reconstructed and planted with wetland-type species, grass species, shrubs and trees as part of the Living Legacy Tree Program, says Little.

“Along the path running parallel to the river, with the help of the Converse County Conservation District, we put up signs explaining the species along the path in natural grass plots and natural flowers,” she says. “WNRF tried to turn it into a bit of a natural resource project coinciding with the state fair.”

Living Legacy

Tree Program

Little says the Living Legacy Tree Program on the fairgrounds is another WNRF and WSF partnership providing tree dedications.

“The Living Legacy Tree Program planting phase is completed,” she says. “However, the trees we’ve planted need upkeep and care, so we are working with WSF to facilitate the inventory, replacement of trees and care. Those are things we will be very intimately involved in with the WSF for years to come.”

Evolvement

Both projects have evolved over the years and maintenance is required, says Rosenthal.

“We are having conversations with WSF about what maintenance and upkeep is needed, and which organization will facilitate those tasks,” she says.

“Kelli has been having conversations with WSF about what the future of these projects looks like because it has changed a bit over the past 10 years,” she adds. “Over time, the upkeep on these projects has been difficult.”

The WACD and WNRF have had leadership transitions within the past few years, with Little taking the reins of both organizations earlier this year.

“I have tried to get my feet under me and really try to understand all of the projects the association and foundation have going on,” says Little. “They’re very worthwhile and beneficial projects for Wyoming and it’s something we need to make a targeted effort to improve and keep things looking nice for the people of Wyoming. That’s my goal moving forward.”

Future outlook

Little says the conservation programs at the WSF are a bit outdated and “feeling rundown.”

“It is my goal moving forward to partner with WSF and other stakeholders to bring these projects back to their former glory,” she says.

She says the projects may need to be changed or updated to reach their full potential on the fairgrounds.

“The WSF has a master plan, so we are hopeful we can work with them to incorporate these projects into their master planning so there’s a plan for the future with maintenance and upkeep of these projects.”

Rosenthal will be moving on from the association shortly, so Little will be looking to hire two new people.

“We will have an entire fresh team this fall or early winter going forward,” she says. “It’s a good opportunity for us to reenvision what we want to do with the projects, not only here at the WSF, but all of our projects, goals and programs moving forward.”

Kaitlyn Root is an editor for the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@ wylr.net.

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“The way this summer has gone on so far is, the best precipitation has been in the north and it has certainly been a lot drier in the central and south,” he said. “Compared to last summer, some parts of Wyoming have had a better summer with rain than last summer with the heavier and spring moisture in the north.”

Recently, there has been some beneficial late season precipitation in areas of the central, south and eastern parts of the state, but it’s now the time of year some of those chances are starting to dwindle, he mentioned.

Extended fall forecast

Day suggested there will be some possibilities for a couple of cold shots – cold and wet weather in September.

“We try to apply as much science to the longterm forecast as possible,” explained Day. “Looking at historical patterns that were similar to in the past with what we’re experiencing now, what we’re seeing right now for the fall season is nothing extraordinary.”

There will be some sporadic cold spells in September, but from September through November, Day predicted seasonal norms.

“It’s going to be a bit colder and we can always expect some colder and wet weather to come during the season change, so it’s not unusual for us to have snow in October all the way down into the plains,” Day said. “Folks in Wyoming should expect what I’m looking at to be a pretty typical fall and the couple of things you get with it, which is basically colder temperatures – nothing off the charts of normal.”

While fall looks to bring normal weather patterns, winter weather is expected to be a bit colder and harsher than years prior.

Winter weather

“From what we’ve seen before historically, to what we’re seeing potentially for this winter and into spring, is driven by what we’re seeing out in the Pacific,” shared Day. “We’re still experiencing the La Niña – it’s been a multi-year La Niña, but we see it fading as we get into December and January, and seeing it completely transition into being gone by early spring.”

It’s important to note, when a La Niña fades going into the cold season, winters can be pretty harsh. He shared, while last winter wasn’t terribly bad in terms of prolonged cold and really severe winter storms, the state didn’t really get big or intense winter storms until late spring.

Day predicted December through February is going to be colder than the three-month period they’ve seen in the last two winters, and with La Niña fading and going away by spring, it should be a colder and wet spring as well.

“We had the cooler and wet weather this spring, but not for everybody. The 2023 spring season, based on what we’ve seen in the past and what we’re seeing right now, should be more productive,” concluded Day. “I’m optimistic the state will have better precipitation this winter and spring compared to the last two years – this means better snowpack and better precipitation on the plains, but we could see pretty cold temperatures and will likely see a harsher winter than the last two or three.”

Brittany Gunn is the editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.

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Market Report • August 17, 2022

Light test on bulls and cows this week, sold on a stronger market all the way through. Lambs sold on a stronger market and private treaty cattle sold on a fully steady to strong market. Thank you and we appreciate your business! Private Treaty

Philip and Jeanne Habeck - 2300 hd Black Spay Heifers • 900 lbs @ $1.75 Enoch and Dixie Shaffer - 110 Black Steer Calves 550 lbs @ $2.22 110 Black Heifer Calves 525 lbs @ $2.02

Cows/Heiferette

BARRY OR SHIRLEY BAUER, CLEARMONT WY 1 RED-COW 1380 93.50 WT 1,290.30 1 RED-COW 1990 92.50 WT 1,840.75 ANDREW OR MISTEE REIMERS, SHERIDAN WY 1 RED-COW 1715 93.00 WT 1,594.95 1 REDHFRTTE 985 124.00 WT 1,221.40 1 RED-COW 1380 89.50 WT 1,235.10 THOMAS D ALDERSON, BUSBY MT 1 BLK-COW 1240 93.00 WT 1,153.20 TERRANCE & DONNA MINES, BANNER WY 1 BLK-COW 1260 93.00 WT 1,171.80 GORDON RANCH, KAYCEE WY 1 BLK-COW 1565 95.50 WT 1,494.57 ELLEN ALLEMAND, SHERIDAN WY 1 BLK-COW 1400 93.50 WT 1,309.00 BRANT HILMAN, SHERIDAN WY 1 BLK-COW 1545 92.50 WT 1,429.12 ELLEN ALLEMAND, SHERIDAN WY 2 BLK-COW 1108 91.00 WT 1,007.82 JOHN FOWLER, ROZET WY 2 BLK-HFRTTE 1273 93.50 WT 1,189.78

Bulls

DEANNA L VISBORG, SHERIDAN WY 1 BLK-BULL 2280 113.00 WT 2,576.40 1 BLK-BULL 1920 117.00 WT 2,246.40 J.D. & DELANA GRIEVES, UPTON WY 1 BLK-BULL 2030 115.50 WT 2,344.65 NORTH FORK RANCH INC., BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 2005 105.00 WT 2,105.25 1 BLK-BULL 2015 103.00 WT 2,075.45 ALAN J & NANCY M KOBIELUSZ, SHERIDAN WY 1 BLK-BULL 2170 106.00 WT 2,300.20 BRETT & MARCY BUSZKIEWIC, BANNER WY 1 BLK-BULL 1620 101.00 WT 1,636.20 ELLEN ALLEMAND, SHERIDAN WY 1 BLK-BULL 1965 99.00 WT 1,945.35 GORDON RANCH, KAYCEE WY 1 BLK-BULL 1890 103.50 WT 1,956.15 1 BLK-BULL 1840 100.50 WT 1,849.20 1 BLK-BULL 1725 98.00 WT 1,690.50 1 BLK-BULL 1980 100.00 WT 1,980.00 LAWRENCE & MARY BARBULA, SHERIDAN 1 RED-BULL 1855 106.00 WT 1,966.30 RIKI DAVIDSON, PARKMAN WY 1 RED-BULL 1845 113.00 WT 2,084.85 BELUS BROS INC, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 1960 106.00 WT 2,077.60 1 BLK-BULL 2135 101.00 WT 2,156.35 JASON OR JOLENE RODRIGUEZ , BUFFALO WY 1 HERE-BULL 2085 108.50 WT 2,262.22 1 HERE-BULL 2050 101.00 WT 2,070.50 WILLIAM LONG , BUFFALO WY 1 RED-BULL 1735 106.50 WT 1,847.77 GREG L & CONNIE M GODDARD, BUFFALO WY 1 HERE-BULL 2330 109.00 WT 2,539.70 KENDRICK, SHARON REDLAND, MANDERSON WY 1 BLK-BULL 1840 103.00 WT 1,895.20 FIELDGROVE RANCH LLC, BUFFALO WY 2 RED-BULL 1853 98.00 WT 1,815.45 1 RED-BULL 1570 94.00 WT 1,475.80 PERRY CATTLE LLC, CLEARMONT WY 1 BLK-BULL 1895 96.00 WT 1,819.20 JOHNSON - ROGERS CATTLE C, BUFFALO WY 1 RED-BULL 1815 109.00 WT 1,978.35 DONALD A OR LISA PETERSON, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 1910 99.00 WT 1,890.90 HAYDEN D. PETERSON, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 1825 98.00 WT 1,788.50 BEAR TRACK LAND & L/S INC, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 2010 105.50 WT 2,120.55 BEAR TRACK LAND & L/S INC, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 1990 108.50 WT 2,159.15 BEAR TRACK LAND & L/S INC, BUFFALO WY 1 BLK-BULL 1835 101.00 WT 1,853.35 JOHN FOWLER, ROZET WY 2 BLKHFRTTE 1273 93.50 WT 1,189.78

Lambs

ADAMI RANCH LLC, BUFFALO WY 99 BK/FACED 89 150.00 WT 134.24 ADAMI RANCH LLC, BUFFALO WY 22 BK/FACED 73 169.00 WT 122.52 ADAMI RANCH LLC, BUFFALO WY 6 MXD-LAMB 86 152.00 WT 130.46 CELIA BOLINGER, BUFFALO WY 74 MXD-LAMB 106 119.00 WT 125.67 DRISKILL/GOODSON LIVESTOC, BUFFALO WY 42 MXD-LAMB 92 146.00 WT 134.35 RUBY AND BAKER, BUFFALO WY 64 BK/FACED 116 102.00 WT 117.85 ALAN J & NANCY M KOBIELUSZ , SHERIDAN WY 14 XBRED 79 184.00 WT 145.22 LUCAS JAMES CAMINO, CLEARMONT WY 83 WF-LAMB 86 163.00 WT 139.92 SHANE & MARISSA SWEET, NEWCASTLE WY 8 BK/FACED 96 129.00 WT 124.16 CADE CARTER , BANNER WY 5 BK/FACED 103 112.00 WT 115.36

Ewes/Bucks

DRISKILL/GOODSON LIVESTOC, BUFFALO WY 11 WHT-EWE 166 61.00 WT 101.48 2 WHT-BUCK 250 69.00 WT 172.50 6F LIVESTOCK LLC, KAYCEE WY 25 WHT-EWE 184 62.00 WT 113.83 RUBY AND BAKER, BUFFALO WY 9 WF-EWE 196 66.00 WT 129.06 7 BK/FACED-EWE176 70.00 WT 123.00 ALAN J & NANCY M KOBIELUSZ , SHERIDAN WY 3 XBRED-EWE 168 62.00 WT 104.36 LUCAS JAMES CAMINO, CLEARMONT WY 9 WF-EWE 166 66.00 WT 109.63 1 BK/FACED-BUCK 195 62.00 WT 120.90 SHANE & MARISSA SWEET, NEWCASTLE WY 4 BK/FACED-EWE153 69.00 WT 105.22

Riding Horses

TEEGAN LENO, SHERIDAN WY 1 SORRL-GELD 1605 5900.00 HD HOAGLAND FAMILY TRUST, BANNER WY 1 BLK-MARE 1615 3200.00 HD DEAN WOOD , PARKMAN WY 1 PALMARE 1495 3100.00 HD

Loose Horses Loose Horses Averaged 1832

TAYLOR SNOOK, HULETT WY 1 BAY-GELD 1355 4500.00 HD JAE AND KATE ESPONDA, GILLETTE WY 1 BLK-GELD 1300 4100.00 HD ZACH OR KAYLEE OR PHIL, ROZET WY 1 BLK-MARE 1160 1600.00 HD TOMMY FIELDGROVE, BUFFALO WY 1 PAL-GELD 1230 3300.00 HD CYRUS GLEASON, GILLETTE WY 1 BLK-MARE 1155 1900.00 HD CYRUS GLEASON, GILLETTE WY 1 GREY-MARE 1050 1500.00 HD ED DISNEY, BUFFALO WY 1 SORRL-GELD 1400 3900.00 HD TAYLOR KELLY, NEWCASTLE WY 1 BAY-GELD 1075 1500.00 HD KYLE OR PAM SIMIANER, OSAGE WY 1 RD ROAN-MARE 1140 1200.00 HD JV & KITSON BOLDON, LUSK WY 1 BROWN-GELD 1185 3000.00 HD JV & KITSON BOLDON, LUSK WY 1 BAY-MARE 1270 4400.00 HD VERN BLACK, RIVERTON WY 1 BKSKN-GELD 1155 2400.00 HD VERN BLACK, RIVERTON WY 2 BKSKN-MARE/FOAL1470 1500.00 HD VERN BLACK, RIVERTON WY 1 DUNN-GELD 1220 2600.00 HD QUINT & AMY GONZALES, BUFFALO 1 BL ROAN-MARE1035 1800.00 HD KEVIN KLEIN, NEWCASTLE WY 1 BAY-GELD 1140 3400.00 HD SCOTT RECULUSA, KAYCEE WY 1 BKSKN-GELD 1135 3800.00 HD CODY TUPPER SAINT ONGE SD 1 BKSKN-GELD 1110 2200.00 HD KELBY OR LACEY KRETSCHMA, ARVADA 1 SORRL-GELD 1085 4000.00 HD

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To advertise in the 2022 Fall Cattlemen’s Edition, contact Jody at 800-967-1647 or jodym@wylr.net.