Heather Jackman
I expect only the best for you
DECEMBER 2008 MARKET UPDATE 70 West Afton Ave Yardley, PA 19067 Office: 215.493.9080 Voice Mail: 215.321.2378 Fax 215.493.3280 Cell 215.431.0884 www.HeatherJackman.com hj@heatherjackman.com RL# RS292094
Hearthside
BUCKINGHAM TWP. SOLD SF HOMES (ex Condos)
45
40
35
30
25 UNITS
2008 2007 2006 20
15
10
5
0 JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG
SOLD in EACH MONTH
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
BUCKINGHAM TOWNSHIP f
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 ______________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 196 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 212 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 211 Unit Inventory is down 7.1% year over year, And down 16 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $779k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $791k List prices of homes in inventory are down 1.5% 252 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 94% of list price 204 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 92% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 19% YTD, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 1.9% Buyers achieving approx 8% avg. discount from List Price Summary: Inventory levels are down as is sales volume. The Average Sold Price for the full year 2006 was up 5.2% (over prior year), full year 2007 was a more modest 1.7% increase. Full Year 08 Sold Average Sold Prices reflected a 2.9% decrease. Buyers continue to achieve “discount” leverage. At current sales pace there is a 11.5 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory versus 10 Months Dec 07. Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” between Buyers/Sellers, with 6 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a Seller? There is an 11.5 Month Supply of homes on the market, generally for longer periods of time, so the competition remains challenging. Average Days on Market is 81 versus 74 last year. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
LOWER MAKEFIELD TOWNSHIP b
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 ______________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 171 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 187 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 159 Unit Inventory is up 7.5% year over year, And down 16 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $572k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $578k List prices of homes in inventory down 1.0% 379 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 95% of list price 252 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 94% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 33.5% year over year, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were up 6.5% Buyers achieving approx 6% avg. discount from List Price Summary: Stronger Unit Sales in 2nd half 07 pushed Full Year 2007 Unit Growth up to 6.5%, while Full Year 08 Sales recorded a lower (-33.5%) 2008 result; Inventory is at a 8+ Month supply of homes. The Average Sold Price for the Full Year 2006 was a modest 3.6% increase, versus a 6.4% decrease for Full Year 2007. Full Year 08 Sold Average Prices reflect a 3.1% increase. Buyers are achieving consistent “discount” leverage (6% points), Market conditions are considered above “Balanced”, favoring the Buyer, with 8+ Months of Homes in Inventory (Note: a Market is considered “balanced” with 6 Months Inventory).
What does this mean to a Seller? There is an 8+ Month Supply of homes on the market, generally, for longer periods of time so the competition remains challenging. The Average Days on Market is 67 vs. 60 last year. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. You may not have enjoyed the per year appreciation in 2006/2007/2008 versus the ~10% experienced during the prior 4-5 years. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
b
MORRISVILLE BORO SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 _____________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 81 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 83 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 79 Unit Inventory is up 2.5% year over year, And down 2 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $227k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $254k List prices of homes in inventory down 10.6% 103 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 93% of list price 75 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 92% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 27% year over year, an unfavorable trend that continues from 2007 Buyers achieving approx 8% avg. discount from List Price Summary: Inventory levels are up and sales volume is down. The Average Sold Price was up a modest 1.3% for the full year 2007 compared with 2006. Dec YTD 08 Sold Average Prices reflect a 9.3% decrease. Buyers clearly have “discount” leverage, Market is a clear “Buyers Market”. Currently there are 13 Months of Homes in Inventory, versus 9 Months Dec 07. Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” with approx 6 Months Inventory.
What does this mean to a Seller? There is a 13 Month Supply of homes on the market, generally for longer periods of time, so the competition remains challenging. Average Days on Market is 69. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
DOYLESTOWN TOWNSHIP f
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 ______________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 98 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 104 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 81 Unit Inventory is up 21% year over year, And down 6 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $534k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $575k List prices of homes in inventory are down 7.1% 168 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 93% of list price 114 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 92% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 32.1 YTD, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 5.6% Buyers achieving approx 8% avg. discount from List Price Summary: Inventory levels are up and sales volume is down. The Average Sold Price for the full year 2007 was down 5.9% (versus prior year). Full Year 08 Sold Average Sold Prices are near flat at a 0.2% decrease. Buyers continue to achieve “discount” leverage. At current sales pace there is a 10.3 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory, versus 5.8 Months Dec 07. Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” between Buyers/Sellers, with 6 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a Seller? There is a 10.3 Month Supply of homes on the market, generally for longer periods of time, so the competition remains challenging. Average Days on Market is 81 days. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
NEWTOWN TOWNSHIP f
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 ______________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 99 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 109 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 129 Unit Inventory is down 23.3% year over year, And down 10 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $509k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $542k List prices of homes in inventory are down 6.1% 260 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 95% of list price 231 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 95% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 11.2% year over year, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 13% Buyers achieving approx 5% avg. discount from List Price Summary: Inventory levels are down as is YTD sales volume. The Average Sold Price for the full year 2006 was up 11% versus near flat full year 2007 pricing at -0.1%. Full Year 08 Average Sold Prices reflect a 2.4% decrease. Buyers achieving consistent “discount” leverage. Market conditions are viewed as essentially “Balanced” between Buyers/Sellers, with 5.1 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a Seller? There is a 5.1 Month Supply of homes on the market, generally for longer periods of time, so the competition remains challenging. Average Days on Market are 54 versus vs. 50 last year. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. You may not have enjoyed the per year appreciation in 2007/2008 versus the ~10% experienced during most of the prior 4-5 years. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
NORTHAMPTON TWP. SOLD SF HOMES (ex Condos)
60
50
UNITS
40
2008 30
2007 2006
20
10
0 JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG
SOLD in EACH MONTH
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
b
NORTHAMPTON TOWNSHIP SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 ______________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 208 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 232 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 174 Unit Inventory is up 19.5% year over year, And down 24 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2008 was $524k Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 2007 was $555k List prices of homes in inventory down 5.6% 351 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 95% of list price 275 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 93% of list price Unit Sales volume is down 21.7% YTD, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 7.4% Buyers achieving approx 7% avg. discount from List Price Summary:
Inventory is up while sales volume is down. The Average Sold Price for the full year 2006 was up a reasonable 8.4%, compared to full year 2007 which was a decrease of 3.3%. Full Year 08 Sold Average Prices were down reflecting a 2.3% decrease. Buyers achieving greater discount leverage, and the Market is considered a “Buyers Market” with 9.1 Months of Homes in Inventory versus 5.9 Months Dec 07. Note that Market conditions are considered “Balanced” with 6 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a Seller? There is a 9.1 Month Supply of homes on the market, generally for longer periods of time, so the competition remains challenging. Average Days on Market is 71 versus 50 days last year. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
SOLEBURY TOWNSHIP SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SINb
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 _________________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 159 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 166 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 135 Inventory is up 17.8% year over year, And down 7 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 08 was $1.37 million Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 07 was $1.40 million List prices in inventory are down 2.2%, this stat is impacted by # of homes priced in $1-5 million, review specific property CMA for pricing direction & check Median Prices 117 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 92% of list price 78 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 90% of list price Unit Sales volume down 33.3% YTD, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 11.4% Buyers achieving approx 10% discount from List Price Summary:
Inventory levels are up and Unit Sales are down. At current Sales pace, there is a 24.5 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory (versus a 13.8 Month Supply same time last year). Buyers continue to achieve significant discount leverage, Market is viewed as a clear “Buyers Market”. Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” with 6 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a seller? There is a substantial inventory of homes on the market (particularly in $1-2 million range where unit inventory increased 46%), generally for longer periods of time, so the competition is challenging. 41% of the homes (65) on the market are priced above $1 million, and this represents a 5.4 Year Supply at current sales pace. Average Days on Market is 103. It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. You may not have enjoyed the positive per year appreciation in 2007 and 2008 that was experienced during the past few years. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.
UPPER MAKEFIELD TOWNSHIP SINGLE FAMILY HOMES b
Market Facts as of December YTD 2008 _________________
Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2008 was 134 Inventory of homes for sale in Nov 2008 was 138 Inventory of homes for sale in Dec 2007 was 128 Inventory is up 4.7% year over year, And down 4 homes sequentially from Nov 08 Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 08 was $1.59 million Avg. price of a home for sale in Dec 07 was $1.64 million List prices in inventory are down 3.1%, this stat is impacted by # of homes priced in $1-2+ million, review specific property CMA for pricing direction & check Median Prices 100 homes sold Dec YTD 2007 at 93% of list price 71 homes sold Dec YTD 2008 at 91% of list price Unit Sales volume down 29% YTD, versus Full Year 2007 Unit Sales which were down 3.8% Buyers achieving approx 9% discount from List Price Summary:
Inventory levels are up and Unit Sales are down. Notably, at current Sales pace there is a 22.6 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory (versus a 15.4 Month Supply same time last year). Buyers appear to be gaining discount leverage, Market is viewed as a clear “Buyers Market”. Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” with 6 Months of Homes in Inventory.
What does this mean to a seller? There is a substantial inventory of homes on the market (particularly in $1-2 million range where inventory near doubled), generally for longer periods of time, so the competition is challenging. 63% of the homes (85) on the market are priced above $1 million, and this represents a 7 Year Supply at current sales pace. Average Days on Market is 109 versus 95 last year It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. You may not have enjoyed the positive per year appreciation in 2007 and 2008 that was experienced during the past few years. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your
New Housing Law
On July 31, the President signed into law H.R. 3221, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, a sweeping, nearly 800-page housing law, unlike anything we’ve seen in a generation. There are two extremely important provisions of this landmark legislation that everyone looking to buy or sell a home in the next year needs to know about: 1) the elimination of seller-funded down payment assistance programs, and 2) the new $7,500 tax credit. The Elimination of DPAs For most home buyers today, especially first-time buyers, saving up enough money for a down payment can be challenging to say the least. DPAs solve this problem by allowing a seller to contribute money to a down payment assistance company, a third party which then provides a legal grant to the home buyer. For FHA mortgages, which required as little as 3% down, this program has been very popular in the past – an estimated two-thirds of all FHA loans utilized these programs. Since 2000, that's nearly 900,000 families! Without this program, many buyers qualified to buy a home today will not be able to qualify without the required down payment for FHA loans (which is increasing to 3.5% under the new law.) This is not just bad news for buyers. Sellers also benefit from DPAs. Not only do DPAs create a larger pool of potential qualified home buyers, they also create attractive financing options for the seller that do not require lowering the price of the home again, which is extremely valuable in today's real estate market. With this in mind, if you or anyone you know is looking to utilize down payment assistance as a tool to buy or sell a home, now is the time to act. Even though the elimination of DPAs doesn't go into effect until October 1st, many lenders have already stopped or will no longer offer these programs prior to the October deadline, so don't wait. You may have heard that a new bill was already introduced in the House to overturn this provision, but don't count on that happening. With today's combination of low prices and low interest rates, now is the time to take advantage of this program before it goes away for good. New Tax Credit for First-Time Buyers The second important provision of the new housing bill we'll discuss in this article is the new $7,500 tax credit for first-time home buyers. And while this is one of the most talked about measures in the new bill, it is also the most misunderstood.
Basically, the government has created a monetary incentive, a tax credit for first-time home buyers, as a tool to stimulate the housing market. The tax credit will be 10% of the purchase price of a home, up to a maximum of $7,500. That means if the home costs more than $75,000, first-time home buyers (anyone who hasn't owned a home in the last three years) will received the full $7,500 tax credit. This is not a new idea. The government offered a similar program in the 1970s, but with one major difference: the new tax credit will have to be paid back over a period of 15 years, beginning two years after the credit is taken. In essence, the government is providing first time home buyers an interest-free loan to help them buy a home! If the home owner happens to sell the home before the 15 years is up, the remaining credit is due upon sale from the profit of the home sale. However, and here's the best part, if there is insufficient profit, after the sale of the home, then the remaining credit due is forgiven. You really have nothing to lose. There are, of course, income limits to qualify for this incentive, but give us call and we'll see if you can take advantage. With this new tax credit and down payment assistance, you are finally in the driver's seat in a buyer's market with some of the best interest rates we've seen in years.