2020
KUNMING
THE FACTORS
Real Estate Market Future Development and Entry Report
The main characteristics of Kunming and its status in national policies
Kunming is the capital of Yunnan Province. It is a famous "Spring City" and "Flower City". It covers an area of 21,473 square kilometers. It has jurisdiction over 7 districts, 6 counties, and 1 county-level city with a total population of 6.67 million. The central city of the Pan-Asian Economic Geographical Circle of Kunming is a frontier city that China opens to Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, and ASEAN. Kunming is located at the strategic heights of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy and is positioned as China's radiating center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia. It will promote the development of Kunming's trade and logistics flow, and enhance Kunming’s urban status and radiation Kunming and Changsha second-hand housing transaction prices
15 14
Kunming
Changsha
13
800
Transaction area (mu)
700
Supply area (mu)
600
400
6000
9.5 Thousand
9 7
2017.5
2017.12
2018.7
300
4000
200
2000 2019.2
2019.9
0
2020.4
100 2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
0
Basic Statistics of Kunming
73% 0.8% 6.75% 64%
Urbanization rate
OVINCE AN PR N N YU NMING KU Y
376.6%
Permanent population growth
on
ris
ly pa pp m su co w r ty ne pe 9 o 1 r 20 b-p su
CIT
GDP annual growth rate
100
31 %
Nearby county people
Outsider
45%
The proportion of the service industry in the economy
Economic Growth
According to the common habit of the Chinese, if the people's living standard improves and there are idle funds in most areas, they will choose to purchase real estate for investment and financial management.
Government encourages
The basis of real estate development is land. If developers cannot obtain land use rights from the government or financial loans from banks, real estate development will inevitably be hindered.
Analysis of Kunming Land Secondary Market Transaction price (10 thound/10 thounds ㎡)
20000
Transaction area (10 thounds ㎡)
Kunming aboriginal
300
17500
Supply area (10 thounds ㎡)
15000
200
12500
8000
10000
150
Due to the favorable urban facilities, environment, climate, and transportation conditions, the demand for foreign houses in Kunming is increasing.
e garag
l erica mm Co
ess sin bu
Proportion of ethnic minority population in Yunnan Province
7500
100
200
Yunnan has a large population of ethnic minorities, and the ethnic minorities have the characteristics of living in concentrated communities, mostly in rural areas.
24%
Related to local real estate development, population influx, and natural population growth
#2 #3
500
8000
11
33.4%
Transaction price (10 thound/mu) 12000 10000
12 10
#1 DEMAND
Trends in land supply and sales prices in Kunming's main urban area
13.3 Thousand
11.5 Thousand
16
of affecting house prices
300
Therefore, the urbanization rate in Yunnan is very low.
400
However, the population data has not changed much, so the possible reason is that people from other provinces bought real estate in Kunming for retirement and vacation, not for settlement.
5000
50
2500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Transaction price (10 thound/10 thounds ㎡)
20000
Transaction area (10 thounds ㎡) 300
17500
Supply area (10 thounds ㎡)
15000
200
12500
8000
10000
150
2500
0
2012
600
Co m m er ci al re si
One Belt One Road
15.5% 12.09% 0-14
s ing ld ui lb ia nt de
15-59
60~
Commercial residential buildings
8.37%
2010 data show that Kunming's population structure is becoming aging, and it is expected that Kunming will have a higher degree of aging in 2020. At the same time, due to Kunming's lack of attractiveness to young people, this situation may become more serious.
Proportion of population over 65.
Market Characteristics Supply and Demand
Commercial land
Format Residential
The early enterprises in Kunming acquired land mainly through commercial and political relations. The land supply mechanism and market demand had a low matching degree, and there were also structural defects. The excessively high directional land supply ratio affected the stability of housing price In 2016, the land market began to recover, supply and transaction volume picked up, and the regional transaction performance was different, most of which were residential and commercial office land transactions, which were mainly concentrated in Chenggong District and the South urban district. Land resources in the central area of the second Ring Road were scarce Clinch a deal the price, the city is relatively high, other area is relatively low, and given priority to with floor price clinch a deal, the premium rate is low
Business
It is not recommended to do large-scale development, and can be used for community commercial development
Office Building
Not recommended for development
Apartment
Secondary development type
2015
2016
Transaction price (10 thound/10 thounds ㎡)
0
20000
Transaction area (10 thounds ㎡) 300
17500
Supply area (10 thounds ㎡)
15000
200
12500
8000
10000
150
7500
100
Apartment: the customer to the customer is given priority to, proprietary and investment purposes. Kunming apartment prices are on the decline as a whole, mainly for jiangjia destocking
5000
50
2500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
Action Plan
Other
Suggestion The main development type Residential market stability, to the good, the current mainstream market supply in kunmingAnd to the best of 90-120 - m just need and just change the product
2014
Apartment supply and demand price trends
Laos
Overview
Population Data of Kunming City (2019)
15% 18%
27%
Office land
Vietnam
2013
Office supply and demand price trend
500
72.4%
Mouth kunming lack the support of industry enterprise is given priority to with small and medium-sized enterprises, more demand is limited, and LOFT, SOHO office customer price will bypass part of the apartment and office buildings as a whole to change slowly
5000
50
Myanmar
Kunming, east, south, west, north four big business circle is formed, by the core business circle outward development, present "multi-center" commercial pattern
7500
100
700
0
Commercial supply and demand price trends
Early urban village renovation project planning business volume proportion is too large, the market business supply is too large, the imbalance between supply and demand
Comparison of transaction prices of various property types in 2018 If the policy is not loosened, the price will not rise sharply (the rise shall not exceed 6%), it is very likely that it will go sideways or even fall back in the future, and most developers will adopt a price-for-volume marketing model. Office and commercial prices will continue to fall.
North City Plate Recommended Advantages: early development of the city, complete transportation facilities, good customer support, and high price realization Disadvantages: Involving the transformation of the old city, the development is difficult; land competition is high The center plate depends on the situation after observation Advantages: core location, complete transportation facilities; good customer support, high price realization Disadvantages: scarce land in the sector; high capital requirements; strong commercial operation capabilities; it involves the transformation of old cities and is difficult to demolish East City plate select the best to enter Advantages: abundant land reserves, the subway is about to open to traffic Disadvantages: low regional awareness, backward development; incomplete supporting facilities
Xishan plate not recommended Advantages: certain natural resources; cheap land prices Disadvantages: low regional development maturity, poor regional image, low awareness, and incomplete supporting facilities
Kunming in such aspects as economy, location, traffic, resource, has the strong potential, will strongly promote the generation of external demand and holdTo continue
XJTLU-UPD 311-CW1-Yuhang.Mao-1718370