Quantum Computing Healthcare Project by Yu Qian Ang

By: Yu Qian ANG, Emily WEN, Xiayue MENG Chuansheng WANG, Justin NGAI, Timofei SEDNEV

QUANTUM COMPUTING HEALTHCARE PROJECT

NOTE

Slides (and the information contained within) are designed, compiled and collated by the Cambridge Technology Policy project team. If otherwise, the source of the image, diagram or data is listed at bottom left. Background images and icons used are creative commons unless otherwise stated.

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE POLICY/ADVOCACY

This deck is prepared as part of the Cambridge MPhil in Technology Policy course requirement. No part(s) of this deck should be reproduced, replicated or circulated without permission from the owners â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which constitutes an infringement of intellectual property rights. This work has been undertaken as part of a student educational project and the material should be viewed in this context. The work does not constitute professional advice and no warranties are made regarding the information presented. The Authors, Cambridge Judge Business School and its Faculty do not accept any liability for the consequences of any action taken as a result of the work or any recommendations made or inferred.

STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS

CONTENT

INTRODUCTION

KEY BENEFIT

ii.

DEFINING QUANTUM COMPUTING

iii.

SIGNIFICANCE

iv.

PROJECT RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

KEY INTERVIEWEES

vi.

SEGMENTATION

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTING GAINING MOMENTUM WORLDWIDE Countries all over the world increasing aware of the potential of quantum computing technology

“The battle over quantum computing is ‘an arms’ race as important as AI or virtual & augmented reality”

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

KEY BENEFIT OF QUANTUM COMPUTERS

THE POTENTIAL EXPONENTIAL SPEED UP Quantum Computers

Problem Complexity

# Qubits

Classical computers 30 years from now

Classical computers

Classical Memory

Time to Simulate One Unitary Gate (e.g. AND)

16 kBytes

Microseconds on a watch

16 MBytes

Milliseconds on a smart phone

16 GBytes

Seconds on a laptop

16 TBytes

Seconds on a supercomputer

16 PBytes

Seconds on top supercomputer

16 EBytes

Minutes of future supercomputer

16 ZBytes

Hours on potential supercomputer?

Size of visible universe

Age of the universe

â&#x20AC;¦.. Time

Billions of years

260

Image from IBM Q Source: Atos, Microsoft (Decoding the Future)

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTING DEFINED

The key in quantum computing lies in the qubits. Unlike the bits in classical computers which store information as either 1 or 0, qubits can exist in multiple states of 1 and 0 simultaneously, a phenomenon called superposition. In a quantum computer, qubits are interconnected by logic gates, like in a conventional digital computer, but the available operands are more sophisticated and diverse. To solve problems, a conventional computers individually simulate different combinations of 0s and 1s, whereas a quantum computer can test all combinations simultaneously, since a qubit represents all combinations of states between 0 and 1 (qubits can exist in any superposition of these values). Image from IBM (IBMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s quantum computing centre at the Thomas J. Watson Research Centre)

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

POLICY

Quantum

Conventional

QUANTUM COMPUTING DEFINED

Quantum computers can achieve vast, superior computing power by replacing bits (1s and 0s) with qubits. Qubits exists in a state of superposition (can be in two states at once, rather than being restricted to a single binary state. Fig: Example of larger reach of quantum computing

Quantum Computers Machine learning algorithms

Conventional Computers Calculus etc Optimisation

Quantum mechanics simulations

Complex problems

This allows quantum computers to be exponentially more powerful than conventional computers, and could potentially solve computing challenges beyond the reach of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fastest supercomputers.

Source: D-Wave, Google, Financial Times, Morgan Stanley

Quantum computing also has the potential to open up new markets.

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTING DEFINED

CHALLENGES However, with all the benefits and potential that quantum computing confers, creating qubits require prodigious feats of engineering and large technical capabilities.

Cold Temperature The superconducting circuits need to be kept at extremely low temperature.

Risk of Noise Changes in temperature of even the slightest vibrations (“noise”) can cause the qubits to lose their fragile quantum state, causing errors in the calculations.

Errors The greater the number of qubits, the more errors there are.

Computational Capacity Increasing qubits also saps a lot of the quantum machinery’s capacity. Image source: IBM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTING DEFINED

COMPARING CLASSICAL WITH QUANTUM COMPUTERS Classical Computers

Quantum Computers

• 1 or 0 as basic unit

• Qubit as basic unit

• Deterministic (always similar answers)

• Probabilistic (gives range of outcomes)

• Transistor and semiconductors

• Different systems/roadmaps

• Highly miniature, reliable

• Large, difficult to run for long

• Easy to derive and read data

• Reading data may alter results

• Runs at ambient temperature

• Runs at very low temperature

• Good at sorting numbers

• Much faster at sorting numbers

• Good for calculus

• Good for complex simulations

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTING DEFINED

THREE KNOWN TYPES OF QUANTUM COMPUTERS Quantum Annealer Least powerful and most restrictive type of quantum computers. Can only perform specific functions and no significant advantage over conventional computers. Characteristics • Easy to build, but very specialised Computational Power • Similar to conventional computers Main Applications • Some optimisations

Image of quantum processor from IBM Q, details adapted from IBM research

Analogue Quantum

Universal Quantum

Able to simulate complex quantum interactions beyond classical computers, providing real advantages over them,

Predicted to be the most powerful, most general and hardest to build, with many technical challenges.

Characteristics • Conjected to contain between 50 to 100 qubits

Characteristics • Estimated to have >100,000 qubits

Computational Power • High, superior to conventional

Computational Power • Extremely high, exponentially faster than conventional

Main Applications • Optimisation problems, machine learning, quantum chemistry, material science, quantum dynamics

Main Applications • All of what can be done with analogue quantum, plus more, such as cryptography, secure computing, etc

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

SIGNIFICANCE OF QUANTUM COMPUTING QUANTUM COMPUTING POSSIBILITIES

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS OPEN/PUBLIC ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY

• Quantum Computing Possibilities

Machine Learning

Simulations

Medical Technologies

•

Slightly beneficial to a small number of sectors and companies

Slightly detrimental to large technology firms if quantum computing is open-sourced

•

Beneficial to many sectors and companies that require high performance computing power

•

Beneficial to general R&D community, especially in adjacent fields and sectors

•

Detrimental to large technology firms if quantum computing is opensourced

Big Data

SLOW DEVELOPMENT

Simple, Conventional Computing Problems

Difficult, Conventional Computing Problems

Quantum Computing will make possible many computational applications that are not previously possible on conventional computers Adapted from Morgan Stanley

FAST DEVELOPMENT

• Status Quo (similar to current situation)

•

Beneficial to large technology companies with large amount of resources (e.g. Google, IBM, Microsoft)

RESTRICTED/PRIVATE ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

SIGNIFICANCE OF QUANTUM COMPUTING EMERGING TECHNOLOGY HYPE CYCLE1

1Source:

Gartner

Long Development Runway Industry observers generally deem quantum computing as nascent, with most such as Gartner predicting more than 10 years developmental runway before practical applications will be available for industry

INTRODUCTION

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1

PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

• Collection of requirements Scoping the project • Defining deliverables • Designing framework

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

SECONDARY RESEARCH

• Literature review • Industry whitepapers and market/commercial reports • Academic journals • Policy papers • Company publications • Conference proceedings

INTERPRETATION & REPORTING

• Design and generate charts, graphs, infographics etc. • Propose strategy recommendations for the Client based on findings • Validate strategy • Report

POLICY

ANALYSIS

• Quantitative and qualitative analysis • Corroboration of findings with experts • Triangulation with industry and market report data

PRIMARY RESEARCH

• Open databases • Patent/IP data • Interviews/consultations with renowned academics, industry thought-leaders, experts and policy-makers • Focus-group discussions • Email questionnaires

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY KEY INTERVIEWEES THE TEAM CONDUCTED CLOSE TO 20 INTERVIEWS / FOCUS GROUPS WITH KEY INDUSTRY INFLUENCERS, ACADEMICS & POLICY-MAKERS

Industry

Academia Professor John Martinis Head of Google’s quantum computing R&D efforts

Dr. Robert S. Sutor VP – IBM Q Strategy and Ecosystem, IBM Research

Policy-makers/Others

Professor Simon Benjamin Prominent academic and PI of various quantum computing R&D programs in NQIT/Oxford Quantum

Professor Artur Ekert Prominent academic in the University of Oxford and Founding Director of Singapore’s CQT

Liam Blackwell David Sweeney Head, Quantum Technologies

Executive Chair of Research England

Tamsin Berry Deputy Director, Life Sciences Industrial & Sector Policy

KEY ANALYTICAL TOOLS USED Econometrics Applying statistical methods to economic data for empirical understanding

Cost Benefit Analysis

Patent Analytics

To understand viability of strategy recommendations

To analyse technology data and trends

KEY CATEGORIZATION

INTRODUCTION

QUANTUM COMPUTING SEGMENTATION

Quantum Software

Quantum Applications

Quantum Search & Optimization

Quantum Simulation Quantum Algorithms Quantum APIs

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

Three Key Impact Areas Based on consultations and interviews with renowned academics and industry leaders, the team has identified (and classified) three key impact application areas of quantum computing.

Quantum Computing

Quantum Hardware

COMMERCIAL

Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum Search & Optimization

Optimization deals with searching for the optimal solution to solve a problem, from a universe of possible solutions. The power of quantum computers may solve problems not practically viable on conventional computers. E.g. invoking quantum phenomenon (tunneling) to find high quality solutions rapidly.

Quantum Simulation

Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum simulations allow the study of systems that are impossible to analyze or model under current computing conditions.

Quantum machine learning can leverage the advantages of quantum computation to greatly improve machine learning methods.

Quantum computers may enable new simulations under complex conditions. E.g. modeling chemical reactions and materials.

The power of quantum computers can greatly enhance the efficiency of machine learning. E.g. Recasting machine learning problems to run on quantum computers, ideally speeding up exponentially

analysis of the commercial (industry & market) ecosystem for quantum computing and healthcare

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM • MACRO TRENDS • STAKEHOLDERS – MNCs • STAKEHOLDERS – STARTUPs • COMPETITORS • VALUE CAPTURE MODELS • PARTNERSHIPS ANALYSIS • VENTURE CAPITAL LANDSCAPE

ii.

MARKET SIZING • OVERALL MARKET TREND • HPC MARKET • EUROPE & UK HEALTHCARE • MARKET DRIVERS & CHALLENGES

iii.

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

COMMERCIAL

MARKET/INDUSTRY ANALYSIS This section presents an

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

MACRO TRENDS

QUANTUM COMPUTING IS EMERGING BUT STILL NICHE

TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE AND IMPACT ON BUSINESS

Increasingly focused area in media and industry publications and articles

Still nascent compared with more mainstream areas such as machine learning and IoT, but gaining momentum among scientific and technology community, due to enthusiasm of large technology companies such as Google, IBM and Microsoft

Source: CB Insights, NQIT

Despite being nascent, confidence and optimism in the future of quantum computing are growing. There is currently an ecosystem of companies with commercial interests ranging from MNCs to startups

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS – MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS COMPANY

HARDWARE

SOFTWARE

Superconducting Qubit Processors

Mainly Quantum Algorithms

72-qubit Chip-based scalable architecture

Quantum metrology, Quantum simulation of chemistry and materials, Quantum assisted optimization & Quantum neural networks

Mainly Quantum Algorithms Superconducting Qubit processors 50-qubit

QISKit: open source software development kit (Python) Quantum Experience: cloud-based platform (Quantum Composer, Quantum Score & Quantum Sphere)

Superconducting Qubit 49-qubit chip “Tangle Lake”

Silicon Spin Qubit

Topological Quantum Computer Semi-conducting nanowires, carbon nanotubes & a CMOS based system

Undisclosed

Mainly Quantum Algorithms Microsoft Azure: cloud-based platform Development Kit: Q# (Python), Open Source

Superconducting Qubits 11-qubit processor offered via quantum computing cloud platform

Mainly Quantum Algorithms

APPLICATION Chemistry, materials, physics, mobility, artificial intelligence

Medicine & materials, supply chain & logistics, financial services, artificial intelligence Chemistry, materials, science, molecular model, cryptography, artificial intelligence Chemistry, materials science, cryptography, machine learning & optimization

Material science, quantum chemistry, pharmaceutical development, machine learning & cryptography

INVESTMENT $15 mil for purchasing 512-qubit D-Wave Two in 2013, undisclosed internal R&D expenditure

Undisclosed fraction of $6 bn annual R&D expenditure

INFLUENCERS John Martinis, Dave Bacon, & Hartmut Neven

Jay M. Gambetta, Dario Gil, Robert Sutor

$50 mil in 2015 with QuTech

Jim Clarke

Undisclosed fraction of $13 bn annual R&D expenditure

Krysta Svore, Michael Freedman, Doug Carmean, Charlie Marcus, Leo Kouwenhoven, Todd Holamdahl & Matthias Troyer

Undisclosed fraction of $15 bn global R&D program

Yaoyun Shi & Mario Szegedy

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS – STARTUPS COMPANY

R&D CAPABILITIES

APPLICATION

FUNDING

TEAM

Quantum Annealer (1000+ qubits) & software

Constraint satisfaction, mission planning, anomaly detection, research, financial modeling

$194.7M

CEO: Vern Brownell(Goldman Sachs) >160 employees, 45 with PhD

SDK: Common Solver Interface, Binary Polynomial & Algorithms

Finance, energy, advanced materials and life sciences

$45M Series B

CEO: Andrew Fursman (VC) >50 employees, 22 with PhD

Fully connected system “Quantum OS”, programming language & compiler

$20M Series B

Operating system for quantum computers, quantum simulation & quantum algorithms

Finance, encryption, artificial intelligence

$58.8M Series A

Hardware-agnostic acceleration platform, full SDK Suite & highperformance applications

Quantitative finance, cybersecurity & design/testing

Early stage

API for quantum computing in the cloud

Physics, chemistry, material science, medicine, transportation, neuroscience & artificial intelligence

$69.5M Series B

Quantum hardware design & quantum validation software system AaaS, technical consulting and analysis, software development & tools

Finance, retail, healthcare, image recognition & cybersecurity

Quantum software company spun out of University of Cambridge

Chemical energy estimation

CEO: David Moehring (15-Y experience) Executive Team and advisors Chairman: Nigel Broomfield 14 employees, 5 with PhD and 3 Prof. CEO: Matt Johnson (MBA @ Wharton) 13 employees, 7 with PhD

CEO: Chad Rigetti (IBM & PhD @ Yale) Co-founder: Charlie Songhurst (VC)

Early stage

CEO: Joseph Emerson (PhD @ SFU) 13 employees, world-leading experts

Early stage

CEO: MichaelBrett (EMBA) Co-founder: Paul Guthrie (JHU)

Seed stage

CEO: Steve Brierley (PhD @ Cambridge) 4 PhDs

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL VALUE CAPTURE / BUSINESS MODELS INSIGHTS ON VALUE CAPTURE / BUSINESS MODEL FROM INTERVIEWERS / CONSULTATIONS â&#x20AC;¢ Race to develop commercially viable hardware is crucial. Whoever provides the most reliable and fastest hardware likely to win

POTENTIAL VALUE CAPTURE / BUSINESS MODELS

Paid access

Hardware Leasing

Image from D-Wave

Service / Consultancy

Applications

Cloud

Platform-as-a-Service

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CURRENT PARTNERSHIP LANDSCAPE

University of Strathclyde University of Bath University of Southampton Keio University University of Melbourne University of Edinburgh University of Bristol ETH Zurich UoT University of Oxford University of Glasgow CQT(NUS) USC University of Sydney QuTech University of Maryland University of Basel University of Copenhagen University of Sussex University of Purdue University of Cambridge University of Colorado Boulder University of Warwick Heriot Watt University of Leeds University

Industry Academia Government

Biogen

Fujitsu

Accenture 1QBit

Volkswagen

Andor

Samsung Samsung JSR

Daimler

D-wave

Oak Ridge National Lab NCCRs

Nagase

Zapata

QuantIC

Los Alamos National Lab

USRA

Strange Works Quantum Benchmark Material Magic

QxBranch

EPSRC DSTL

Q-CTRL DE Shaw & Co

NQIT

Commonwealth Bank Australia

QC ware

CDL

Rigetti

Cascade

Chromacity

Honda

Temporal Defense Systems

Rambus

IDQ Optos

JPMorgan

Lockheed Martin

QuantumIT

IQE

Cambridge Quantum Computing Limited

NIST

Oxford Capital Fraunhofer

QuantumX

Gooch & Housego Intel M Squaared Lasers

NSF NPL VU

Covesion

Elementsix

Bruker

Aspen Admiral Oxford Instruments

CWI NASA

QuSoft

DNA-SEQ Alliance

UvA

Generated in R Studio, based on publicly available partnership information centered in or around UK.. Some of partnerships are in stealth, and data are not publicly available

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

PARTNERSHIP ANALYSIS AND EXAMPLES NEW PARTNERSHIPS FORMED IN/AROUND UK 60 50

Growth in quantum computing R&D partnerships in the UK and around the world in recent years

2017: IBM launched IBM Q network, an industry-first imitative to build commercially available universal quantum computers for businesses and science.

40 30 20 10 0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2015: Launched of the Networked Quantum information Technologies Hub (NQIT), part of UK’s National Quantum Technology Programme.

New Partnerships

EXAMPLE: NQIT CONSORTIUM Members: an Oxford-led alliance of ten universities and over 80 organizations. Engagement: Over £1 mil partnership fund to establish 14 partnership projects between industry and academia and host forums Based on publicly available partnership information.

EXAMPLE: UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD Members: Oxford has the largest number of R&D groups researching various aspects of quantum science. Engagements: UK collaborator in IBM’s quantum computing network: leader of NQIT; partner institution of QuanIC

EXAMPLE: IBM Q NETWORK Members: a worldwide community of leading Fortune 500 companies, startups, academic institutions and national research labs. Engagements: Worldwide collaborations in different sectors such as finance, chemistry, electronics etc.

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

VENTURE CAPITAL LANDSCAPE

QUANTUM COMPUTING DISCLOSED INVESTOR-COMPANY RELATIONSHIPS OVER TIME JAN 2000 TO JAN 2006

JAN 2006 TO JAN 2012

D-Wave Systems｜Center of the commercial quantum computing ecosystem Rigetti, Quantum Biosystems, Cyphs & Post Quantum｜Sub-Centers Y Combinator, Goldman Sachs & Draper Fisher Jurvetson ｜Mainstream VCs / Investors Quantum Wave Fund & Quantum Valley Investments ｜Targeted funds focusing on quantum technologies

VC funding and startup ecosystem / network proliferating, especially in targeted funds. Some startups in stealth mode or not included in the ecosystem Source: CB Insights

JAN 2012 TO AUG 2016

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

VENTURE CAPITAL LANDSCAPE

GLOBAL QUANTUM COMPUTING VC FINANCING $350

$300.0

$254.4

$250.0

Disclosed Deals: Disclosed Funding: Trend:

$200.0

BEFORE 2016

$150.0

•

$101.0

$100.0 $50.0

<50 $485.4 million Volatile but upwards

$34.0

$42.0

$29

$17.0

$8.0

2017

$0.0 2012

2013

4 companies (D-wave Systems, CQC, Rigetti & Quantum Biosystems) dominated the industry’s total funding (88%).

2014

2015

2016

2017

Disclosed Funding ($ Million)

2018 YTD

• 19

The same 4 companies occupied a third of the total funding. VC firms started to pay more attention to other emerging quantum computing startups.

12 10

8 5

2018 ONWARDS

•

Disclosed Deals

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Data from CB Insights, Crunchbase, Dealroom.co

2017

2018

VC firms display more willingness to invest in quantum computing startups, due to macro factors such as general tech trends / coverage. However, VC financing landscape still falls behind other mainstream areas.

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

OVERALL MARKET TREND

STRATEGY

Market-size based on revenue is small, and dominated by superconducting technology

CURRENT PARENT MARKET & MARKET SHARE (2017)

Other quantum computing technologies: • Trapped Ions • Photonics • Quantum dots

Current quantum computing market (<1%)

Quantum computing can be classified under the highperformance computing market

~US$32 bn

POLICY

Global High Performance Computing Market

~US$90 million

Superconducting technology

Market Share by Quantum Computing Technologies

CURRENT MARKET LANDSCAPE Quantum Computing

16.67%

25.00% Technology

Geography

End-user

Data source: Technavio, Business Wire, Mordor Intelligence

Transport

Government

33.33% IT & Telecom

Aerospace/Defence

EMEA

APAC

Americas

Quantum dots

Photonics

Trapped Ions

Superconducting

25.00%

Aerospace and defense IT and telecom

Current market share by enduser dominated by 4 key sectors. Currently no end-users in healthcare sector for quantum computing

Government Transportation

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

Software Providers

5% Manufacturers

12%

2% 2%

57%

IT Providers/Other

2016

Government

•

• •

Healthcare accounts for only 2% of the overall HPC market (~$600 million) Largest category is HPC software segment, which is growing at 3.9% CAGR Corporate revenue for HPC software account for approximately 56%, and is expected to grow from $20 Bn to $27 Bn at 6.7% CAGR

Source: Technavio, HPCWire, HPC Advisory Council

Servers

Storage

Services

Networks

Cloud

Other

Software

QUANTUM COMPUTING MARKET

Energy

•

2021

Overall HPC market expected to grow, exemplifying demand across all sectors Servers and software dominating HPC market

•

Healthcare

11%

STRATEGY

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

IT Systems/Services Vendor

POLICY

HPC MARKET BY CATEGORY (2017)

HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING MARKET CURRENT HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING MARKET (2017)

TECHNOLOGY

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

300 170 100 17

2017

90 28.9

0 2018

2019 Global

•

15.3

2020

2021

EMEA

Overall quantum computing market expected to reach $300 million by year 2021

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

EUROPE & UK HEALTHCARE MARKET EUROPEAN HEALTHCARE SECTOR FORECASE ($ Bn)

•

2.3

3.7%

2.2

3.6% 3.5%

2.1

•

3.4%

3.3%

1.9

3.2%

1.8

3.1%

1.7

•

Healthcare market in Europe has been growing steadily at 3.4-3.5% CAGR since 2013 UK is one of largest spenders but behind Germany and France in terms of overall expenditure and spending per capita All sectors are relatively large and have the potential for steady growth

3.0% 2017

2018

2019 Market size

BY SECTOR (2017)

2020

2021

2022

Annual growth

BY REGION (2017)

15.20%

22.1% 34.7%

300 250

15.50% 14.9%

200

150 18.30%

24.20%

6.0% 9.0%

Inpatient care Outpatient care Medical goods

13.2%

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Rest of Europe

Collective services and capital formation Long-Term care Data Source: MarketLine, Deloitte 2016 Global Healthcare Outlook

100 50 0

projected

26.90%

UNITED KINGDOM OVERALL HEALTHCARE SECTOR (£ Million)

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

UK HEALTHCARE MARKET

Expected Growth in UK Healthcare in Certain Sectors

UNITED KINGDOM SEGEMENTATION BY SUBSECTORS ($ Bn)

• Overall growth is compatible with the EU industry forecast; hence, can be expected to grow at similar rates • Inpatient expected to grow at a stable rate (3.9% CAGR) • Outpatient also expected to grow (5.5% CAGR)

250

Not elsewhere classified

200

Ancillary services Governance, health system and financing administration 150 Preventive care

Medical goods 100

Long-Term care

48.8

46.96

55.06

54.5

Outpatient care 50

Inpatient care

50.54

48.65

0 2013

Data Source: Office for National Statistics, UK

2014

2015

2016

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

MARKET DRIVERS & CHALLENGES

QUANTUM COMPUTING Increased investment by government entities

HEALTHCARE

Increasing pace of digitalization

Increasing global expenditure

Increasing interest in early-diagnosis and preventative medicine

Drivers Broader applications

Rising cybercrime and interest in cryptography Cloud-based quantum services

Source: Adapted from Technavio, Cision PR Newswire

Technical issues and difficulty in building large-scale Substitute technology currently more cost-efficient

Early adoption in the Defense and Automotive industry Potential of Quantum Mechanics in solving problems

QUANTUM COMPUTING

of different healthcare measures

Advancing IT and big data capabilities, and application to healthcare

Reluctance to accept new technology

Challenges Quantum decoherence

Few key stakeholders / incomplete supply chain

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SECTION

Space for Growth in EU/UK Healthcare Market Data /market research all suggest healthcare market poised for growth, due to macro drivers like increasing demand, catalysed by digitalization. Opportunity for value capture in areas such as digital health.

Major companies are approaching partnerships and collaborations differently. IBM, for example, adopted an open innovation approach, while others, such as Google, are more selective and less open.

Quantum Computing as an Enabler Quantum computing market not expected to be huge by 2020. Currently no reported sales / revenue for quantum computers from healthcare sector. However, quantum could be an enabler to better deliver core competencies, and drive value in new areas.

Different Level of Partnerships in Ecosystem

Opportunity for to be Influencer No major healthcare company has established itself as a major influencer in this field yet.

TECHNOLOGY

STATE OF TECHNOLOGY / TIMELINE • TIMELINE SUMMARY • DEVELOPMENT (PAST-CURRENT) • DEVELOPMENT (CURRENT-FUTURE) • MILESTONES

ii.

TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS • PROCESSOR • APPLICATION & SOFTWARE

iii.

PATENT ANALYSIS • PATENT TRENDS & MAPS • HEALTHCARE CASE STUDIES • PATENT TRENDS SUMMARY

iv.

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE This section discusses the quantum computing + healthcare technology landscape

STATE OF TECHNOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTER R&D TIMELINE SUMMARY

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE SUMMARY EARLY 1990s

1990s to 2010s

Primarily Proof-of-Concept

Quantum Physics Research In the early 1990s, quantum computing was primarily codified to harness capabilities of quantum physics • •

Computation with atomic, molecular, optical coherence Exponential speed up over classical algorithms

2010 ONWARDS

For 2 decades, most quantum computing technologies have mainly stayed in proof-ofconcept stage • •

Source: Travis Humble, Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

R&D commencing due to inflow of basic research investments Diverse quantum computing technology base but only a few more mature examples such as D-Wave and QKD Corp.

Addressing System-Level Issues R&D starting to address system level issues

•

Micro-architecture: layout

•

Macro-architecture: integration

•

Programming: logical, physical

•

Performance: cost, stability, efficiency

STATE OF TECHNOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTER DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE (PAST-CURRENT) 2001

Shorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s algorithm demonstrated to factor 15 using 7-qubit computer. UMich subsequently built a semiconductor chip ion trap, pointing the way to scalable quantum computing

2013

New boson sampling technique reported, potential for photos in optical lattice to be good enough for practical problems even if not a universal quantum computer

2009

Yale University developed first solid-state quantum processor, a two-qubit superconducting chip

2015

NASA publicly displayed worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s first fully operational US$15 million quantum computer made by D-Wave

2011

D-Wave Systems announced first commercial quantum annealer, the D-Wave One, claiming a 128 qubit processor

2017

IBM announced its most power universal quantum computing system (IBM Q), and released API. Subsequently announced 20 qubit commercial processor and prototype 50 qubit processor

2012

IBM announced breakthroughs with superconducting integrated circuits

2018

Google announced 72 qubit processor Bristlecone

First dedicated quantum computing software company (1QBit) founded in Vancouver, Canada

2018

IBM announced IBM Q network clients and 8 quantum computing startup participants

2012

STATE OF TECHNOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTER DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE (CURRENT-FUTURE) 0 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 5 Years

Computing

Qubit logic processing protected by error correction or topologically

New algorithms for quantum computers

5 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 10 Years Small quantum processor executing technologically relevant algorithms

Solving chemistry and materials science problems with special purpose quantum computer > 100 physical qubit

Simulators

Simulator of motion of electrons in materials

New algorithms for quantum simulators and networks

Development and design of new complex materials

Sensors

Quantum sensors for niche applications (incl. gravity and magnetic sensors for health care, geosurvey and security)

More precise atomic clocks for synchronisation of future smart networks, incl. energy grids

Quantum sensors for larger volume applications including automotive, construction

Versatile simulator of quantum magnetism and electricity

Core technology of quantum repeaters

Secure point-topoint quantum links

Quantum network between cities

B Integration of quantum circuit and cryogenic classical control hardware

General purpose quantum computers exceed computational power of classical computers

Simulators of quantum dynamics and chemical reaction mechanisms to support drug design

C Handheld quantum navigation devices

Gravity imaging devices based on gravity sensors

Quantum credit cards

Quantum repeaters with cryptography and eavesdropping detection

A Communication

> 10 Years

Integrate quantum sensors with consumer applications including mobile devices

Secure Europe-wide internet merging quantum and classical communication

= Related Milestone Adapted from QUROPE Quantum Manifesto

STATE OF TECHNOLOGY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

QUANTUM COMPUTER DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE (MILESTONES)

Many EU scientists believe that quantum sensors and quantum simulators will be ready for commercialization within this decade, while quantum computers may have to wait at least a couple of years more. Many technology observers holds the view that early consumer uses of quantum computing will arrive after more than 10 years. Adapted from QUROPE Quantum Manifesto, Futurism

STRATEGY

TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM-VOLUME MATRIX

A Quantum Computerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s power depends on more than just adding qubits Quantum computers will need to explore a large space of quantum states if we want to use them to solve real problems. The number of qubits and error rates are equally important. In practice devices, the effective error rate depends on the accuracy of each operation, but also on how many operations it takes to solve a particular problem as well as how the processor performs these operations.

Source: IBM Q Research

TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

PROGRESS IN QUANTUM PROCESSOR R&D 1

Programmable chips Have Been Realized • • • •

•

Search, factoring, chemistry, machine learning Multiple operations on multiple qubits Correct results obtained for simple cases with moderate statistical errors Logical operations not yet fault-tolerant

SCIENTIFIC APPLICATIONS Applied Mathematics

Proof-of-principle demos Superconducting Josephson junctions Doped semiconductors quantum dots Trapped Ions

Quantum Algorithms Have Been Tested • • •

EXAMPLES

Superconducting chip from Google/UCSB

Diamond chip from Delft/UCSB

• • • • •

Physical Modelling & Simulations Superconducting chip from D-Wave

Linear optical chip from University of Bristol

Computational chemistry Material science High-energy physics

• • •

Low-level Quantum Instruction Control • •

Early infrastructure for translating high-level language into intermediate representations Variety of programming approaches

Adapted from Travis Humble, Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Linear Algebra Optimization Sampling and search Random numbers Scheduling & routing

Analysis Ion trap chip from NIST

Photonic QKD system from Id Quantique

• • • •

Machine learning Pattern matching Data mining Anomaly detection

TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

APPLICATION & SOFTWARE RESOURCE HIERARCHY Logical Fault Tolerant

QUANTUM SOFTWARE ECOSYSTEM

• •

Active Error Correction Physical

•

Advances in system integration starting Scaling up to multi-qubit, fault tolerant operations Quantum error correction for faulty toleration operation

resource requirement

Proposed stack for a quantum fault-tolerant circuit-based system (Van Meter & Horsman, 2013)

• • •

Challenging to abstract interfaces and layers of architecture Verification and validation of behaviour difficult Wide open area of design and trade-off studies

Source: Travis Humble, Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Van Meter and Horsman (2013)

Requires reliable software to address multiple aspects • Applications • Programming • Run-time • Devices • Logic

Applications

Runtime

Program

Software Execution Logic

Architecture

Devices

PATENT ANALYSIS GENERAL PATENTING TRENDS

QUANTUM COMPUTING & ALGORITHM PATENT FAMILIES 200

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

QUANTUM COMPUTATION PATENT FAMILIES COUNT1

All top companies in quantum computing projected to increase their patenting activities through to 2020

180 160 140 120 100 80 60

QUANTUM ALGORITHM PATENT FAMILIES COUNT1

40 20

Patenting activity in field of quantum algorithms typically small than other quantum fields, but growing

Quantum Computing

Quantum Algorithm

Exponential growth in patent activities for quantum computing and algorithms since 2015

Data from Clarivate Analytics and Patinfomatics, based on ~1,000 patent documents from a worldwide search, 1Source: Clarivate Analytics and Patinfomatics

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

PATENT HEATMAP

• •

Large companies dominating stock patents in key quantum computing application and hardware areas In addition to quantum computing hardware, increasing attention is being paid to application areas = Key Areas of Interest

Data from Patinfomatics

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

PATENT SPATIAL MAP

Patent Spatial Map of Top vs Emerging Companies

TOP / LARGE COMPANIES (2017)

EMERGING COMPANIES (2017)

Large companies increasing (and immensely) interested in quantum computing applications and optimization, exemplified by the intensifying patent and intellectual property activities in these areas. = Key Areas of Interest Source: Clarivate Analytics and Patinfomatics

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

FORWARD CITATION ANALYSIS QUANTUM COMPUTING FORWARD CITATION (2017)

• • •

Dominated by major players such as D-Wave, IBM, Microsoft, Toshiba, and MIT MIT and Rigetti holds just 3 patent families, but heavily connected to large players Other influencers include Google, 1Qbit, Stanford

QUANTUM ALGORITHM FORWARD CITATION (2017)

•

• • •

Yamaha’s work well respected, as they account for significant forward citations Yamaha’s portfolio all abandoned, now in public domain STMicroelectronics also has significant portfolio Other influencers include D-Wave, Microsoft, IBM = Key Areas of Interest

Source: Clarivate Analytics and Patinfomatics, based on 536 and 407 quantum computation and algorithm patent data with US as primary country

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

HEALTHCARE CASE STUDY – MEDICAL IMAGING MEDICAL IMAGING PROCESSING AND REGISTRATION BASED ON QUANTUM COMPUTATION1 App/Pub No. CN103593842A Assignee: Xi’an University of Electronic Science and Technology Patent Date: 2016-10-12 The invention discloses a medical imaging recognition and registration method based on quantum computing. Initially generated through a chaotic methodology, recognition and registration parameters corresponding to individuals in the populated are computed.

Image conversion is then conducted according to the parameters. Similarities between the converted images and a reference image is calculated, and a optimal registration parameter is derived before the image is formally registered in the system.

Quantum Search & Optimization 1Details

Translated from Mandarin, Chinese

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

HEALTHCARE CASE STUDY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; MEDICAL IMAGING QUANTUM-BASED MACHINE LEARNING FOR ONCOLOGY TREATMENT App/Pub No. US15641431 Assignee: University of Michigan Patent Date: 2017-07-05 A quantum-based reinforcement learning engine representing decision to adapt or not to adapt the course of treat for the oncology patient as quantum information state in a superposition. Using a quantum search algorithm, the quantum-based reinforcement learning engine identifies amplitudes for each quantum information state in the superposition. The quantumbased reinforcement learning engine instructs a health care provider to adapt the course of treatment for the oncology patient when a likelihood corresponding to the decision to adapt state exceeds a likelihood threshold.

Quantum Machine Learning

POLICY

STRATEGY

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

HEALTHCARE CASE STUDY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; MEDICAL IMAGING ONLINE DIAGNOSTIC SYSTEM FOR DISEASES UTILIZING QUANTUM CLOUD COMPUTING App/Pub No. US2016320371 Assignee: Abraham Fred Patent Date: 2016-11-03 The invention relates to implementing an online diagnostic system for diagnosing the sample received from a client. The system is connected with an electrode through a Bluetooth low energy communication channel to receive the sample from one or more subscribed client(s) and the system is configured to transmit the received sample for further diagnosis of the sample. Additionally, the system can be supported with a diagnostic kiosk integrated with a dual purpose chip/imbedded Microfluidic chip (MFC) to collect the test sample. Further, the transmitted sample is diagnosed in the cloud by using nanotechnology and through the implementation of the cloud computation technology. The application is configured to send back the sample diagnosis result to the electronic device from which the client sample was collected or through a diagnostic kiosk LED display to provide a virtual medical assistance for the clients diagnosed with a disease.

Quantum Search & Optimization

PATENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

GENERAL PATENT TRENDS SUMMARY

Rising Patenting Trend Patents in quantum computing rising rapidly over 300% from 2014 to 2017

Practical Applications May Emerge Soon Twice as many patents for applications as there are in quantum computing tech

Public Domain Patents

Computational Methods

Technologies from British Telecom and Yamaha are now in the public domain, and could be essential building blocks

Quantum computer manufacturers are patenting more on computational methods, targeting applications.

Sleeping Dragon China

Powerful Chinese Networks1

Chinese groups dominating patenting of quantum applications, 3X more than United States

Chinese firms, Universities and Public RIs have formed formidable partnerships in hardware

Interest from Japan

North America Increase

NEC, NTT and Toshiba have some of the largest portfolio, patenting methods, protocols and even hardware

North American firms D-Wave, Microsoft, IBM, and Raytheon have substantial portfolio, and trends show that their activities will increase

Analysis have illustrated that many countries have displayed significant interest in quantum computing, and are intensifying development (some in stealth mode without much publicity). It is anyoneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s guess when practical applications will emerge, but trends seem to suggest that it would not be long. 1:Chinese

firms Qasky, QuantumCTek, Shenzhou Quantum have built up enormous patent portfolios, and are working with the University of Science and Tech (China) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences on hardware

TECH LANDSCAPE

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS FOR TECHNOLOGY SECTION

Major Players Moving into Applications Patenting activities show that major players are moving into application areas, in addition to hardware pureplay. It is difficult to predict when practical applications will have a commercially viable business/value model.

Partnerships are Crucial Major healthcare companies should partner with hardware and software developers, especially those with potential synergies.

Unconventional Partnerships May Prove Beneficial Significant amount of attention has been focused on the major tech giants such as Google, IBM, and Microsoft, but patenting activities show that companies in China and Japan are also conducting intensive R&D. It may be beneficiary to seek out unconventional partnerships with some of these firms across regions, or even with startups, as there may be possibility of surprise value capture.

POLICY & ADVOCACY This section evaluates the policy initiatives (focusing on UK) for quantum computing and healthcare OVERVIEW & TRENDS

ii.

POLICY ROADMAP & ECOSYSTEM • KEY STAKEHOLDERS & NETWORK • FUNDING LANDSCAPE

iii.

UNITED KINGDOM POLICY FOCUS • NATIONAL NETWORK OF HUBS • PROGRAMMES OF INTEREST

iv.

EUROPE – HORIZON 2020

POLICY GAPS

vi.

RECOMMENDATIONS TO GOVERNMENT

vii. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS

POLICY

OVERVIEW & TRENDS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

EST. ANNUAL SPENDING ON QUANTUM RESEARCH (£mil) Increasing Government Interest in Quantum

European Union £480m total

National and supranational funding backing quantum technology and quantum computing efforts. UK has a £270 mil program, while the EU has set aside €1 bn for a pan-European program.

Denmark

£19m United Kingdom

Spain Canada

Sweden

£92m

£13m

Russia

£22m Finland

£88m

£26m

£11m

Netherlands

£24m

Germany

Poland

£105

£11m Japan

United States £315m

£56m

Austria

£31m

China £193m

Italy

£32m

South Korea

France

£11m

£46m Singapore

£39m Australia

£66m

World Est. £1,300m total Data from McKinsey, The Economist

OVERVIEW & TRENDS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

POLICY

INCREASING EFFORTS IN QUANTUM COMPUTING AROUND THE WORLD

Canada

• Notables investments and quantum computing companies such as D.Wave and 1Qbit • Government funded research

• £270 mil quantum technology program • Strong R&D capabilities in public research institute and universities such as Oxford

• Public investment in quantum computing, with grants of over US$10 mil to multiple research groups

United Kingdom

United States

• Heavy interest from major technology heavyweights such as Google, IBM, Microsoft • Government investments high • Major top universities such as MIT and Stanford conducting quantum computing research

• Many research groups founded and received funding over the past 10 years through framework programs • €1 bn investment program announced in 2016

Europe

• Governmental push with over US$100 mil funding in multiple areas of quantum computing • Increased hiring of academics in relevant and adjacent areas

Japan

China

Australasia

• Quantum program such as Australia’s Centre for Quantum & Communications Technology • New Zealand also has relatively significant amount of quantum research

POLICY ROADMAP

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

EUROPE & UNITED KINGDOM

£20m Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund (over 4 years)

Blackett Report on quantum technologies

2017

2016

Overall, UK’s policy direction is optimistic to position itself as a global leader in quantum technology innovation UKRI committed to maintain world leading position, and will consider the way forward for the National Programme •

2013

2016

2018 & beyond

Government investment of £270m (over 5 years from 2014-19)

€1b Quantum Technology Flagship Programme (expected 10 years)

Work underway1 to secure commitment to 2nd phase of National Programme

Market demand expected to grow as end-user companies realise potential benefits • •

1Source:

Liam Blackwell, EPSRC

1st phase of National Programme has exceeded expectations

Industrial sector still mostly consists of technology developments at early stage With continued investment there is potential for fully integrated devices and systems that meet specifications of healthcare/financial services/defence sectors

POLICY ECOSYSTEM KEY STAKEHOLDERS – UK

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

Key partners in the National Quantum Technologies Programme enjoy a strong and supportive partnership that has fostered a growing interdependent network of research and innovation between UK universities, leading international companies and a dynamic and growing industrial base in quantum technologies, including SMEs and large established primes1

£75 mil Investment in Capital Infrastructure across hubs and universities

£120 mil Investment in 4 university-led quantum tech hubs

£30 mil Investment in Demonstrator Programmes Quantum Tech Special Interest Group in areas such as gravity imaging and quantum navigation

Investment of £79 mil in training and skills

1Source:

David Delphy, National Strategy for Quantum Technologies

• 3 EPSRC Centres for Doctoral Training in quantum technologies • 3 Training and Skills Hubs in quantum systems engineering • 4 quantum technology fellowships • 46 studentships at 16 universities

300 members from range of sectors

£29m Quantum Metrology Institute Set up to provide measurement expertise and facilities needed to test, validate and commercialise new quantum technologies

POLICY ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

STAKEHOLDER NETWORK DIAGRAM1 Understand

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

the Client can consider forming partnerships with EPSRC as well as participate in Innovate UK programmes to capture the value of their networks

STAKEHOLDER NETWORK â&#x20AC;&#x201C; UK

Discover

COMMERCIAL

Integrate

Validate

EPSRC discovery-led research Innovate UK challenge programmes

Deploy Opportunity to collaborate with the EPSRC network of researchers on quantum tech projects using Innovate UK funding

EPSRC user-inspired research

EPSRC Centres Industrial research centres

Internal R&D value-added by additional inputs from collaborations

EPSRC Fellowships

EPSRC Centres for Doctoral Training 1Source:

Mark Fromhold, Robert Hadfield, Jason Smith, Mark Thompson, UKNQT

CDTs for quantum technology allow the Client to capitalise on expertise of university academic groups

POLICY ECOSYSTEM FUNDING LANDSCAPE – UK

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

It is important to understand how UK government structures public funding in order to identify suitable funding programmes that industry can leverage on and participate in

RESEARCH FUNDING SEGMENTS1 EPSRC

Centres for Doctoral Training Quantum Technology Hubs Demonstrator Programmes

DSTL

KTN

FET Flagship Programme

CDTs in UCL, ICL, U of Bristol support doctoral training in collaboration with industrial partners

•

QT Hubs provide industrial engagement opportunities for university researchers via partnership projects with early commercialisation potential

•

Innovate UK offers funding opportunities via the Industry Strategy Challenge Fund

•

Future and Emerging Tech (FET) Flagship from 2013-2023 offers large-scale partnering initiatives between industry and academia with research projects funded by the EC

•

Special Interest Group facilitates commercialisation by connecting researchers, tech developers and users to create supply chains for the market

Special Interest Group

NPL

Quantum Metrology Institute Basic Science

1Source:

•

Innovate UK Challenge Programmes

Innovate UK H2020

Various entry points to unlock potential of quantum technology research:

Richard Murray, Innovate UK

Technology

Applications

Markets

UNITED KINGDOM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

NATIONAL NETWORK OF 4 QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY HUBS These new Hubs will draw together scientists, engineers and technologists from across the UK who will explore how we can exploit the intriguing properties of the quantum realm

120 million pounds investment into consortium of 17 universities and 132 companies led by universities of Glasgow, York, Birmingham and Oxford 1

University of Glasgow: Quantum Imaging

Philip Nelson, EPSRC Chief Executive This exciting new Quantum Hubs network will push the boundaries of knowledge and exploit new technologies, to the benefit of healthcare, communications and security.

University of York: Quantum Communications

Greg Clark, Minister of State for Universities, Science and Cities Hub

Benefits of Tech

University of Oxford: Quantum Computing

Goals of Hub

Quantum Imaging

Improves sensitivity of cameras

Medical imaging, security and environmental monitoring, manufacturing of high value materials

Opening up of markets for quantum cameras

Quantum Communications

Improves security of data and transactions across multiple sectors

Government and industry, commerce and consumers

Breakthroughs to lead to widespread and affordable use of technology

Quantum Sensing and Metrology

Improves accuracy of measurements of time, frequency, magnetic fields

Electronic stock trading, GPS navigation, dementia research

Build supply chain and prototype devices

Quantum Computing

Ability to solve problems that supercomputers are not able to

Discovery of drugs and materials

Making sense of big data for better predictions of future trends

University of Birmingham: Quantum Sensing and Metrology

Uses & Impacts

UNITED KINGDOM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

Networked Quantum Information Technologies (NQIT) A consortium of 9 UK universities and more than 30 industry partners working together to develop a quantum computer demonstrator

FOCUS ON NQIT HUB

POTENTIAL SYNERGIES PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS

INDUSTRY ENGAGEMENT EVENTS

•

Funding available to support promising quantum technology projects that have early commercialisation potential

•

Regular events like forums and workshops held throughout the year to facilitate discussion between researchers and industrial and commercial end users of NQIT technology

•

14 funded partnership projects between industry and academia currently

•

Ensures that researchers are fully aware of users’ requirements and technology expectations, and can align their research with industrial and commercial demands

•

Possible to apply to be a collaborator in such partnerships for healthcare-related projects

•

Possible to attend such events in order to gain relevant information on commercialisation of quantum technology in order to stay connected and involved in the sector

Associated Tech Readiness Tech Development and Applications

Be a Collaborating Industrial Partner of NQIT Current partners provide services like technology and market information, and contribute to the design of hardware components. It is possible for the Client to open up a new collaborative model, whereby it collaborates with other researchers to develop quantum computing algorithms and procure hardware from other partners in the consortium. Partnership Resource Funding: help accelerate technology development of NQIT deliverables. Typical project length of 4 to 18 months, with up to £125,000 funding. Contribution in kind from industry collaborator.

UNITED KINGDOM

INTRODUCTION

CENTRES FOR DOCTORAL TRAINING Industrial track studentships cofunded by industrial partners

•

Some PhD projects are embedded within the industrial partner lab

•

Mutual benefits: Industry partners able to gain academic expertise, while students are exposed to industry landscape

•

Industry Strategy Challenge Fund provides funding and support to UK businesses and researchers

•

Funding is organised around 14 challenges, one of them quantum technologies

•

Funding competitions will be run under each challenge theme

•

Relevant competitions and deadlines on next slide

Recommendation Continue partnership and perhaps explore other CDTs, such as University of Bristol’s quantum engineering CDT

POLICY

STRATEGY

SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP

INNOVATE UK CHALLENGE PROGRAMME

Associated Tech Readiness Basic Science Research and Tech Development

•

TECHNOLOGY

Below are a few government programmes that companies can stretch its R&D dollars and tap into:

PROGRAMMES OF INTEREST •

COMMERCIAL

•

Created by the Knowledge Transfer Network and acts as a delivery partner of the National Quantum Tech Programme

•

Supports and connects researchers, tech developers and users to build supply chains and explore market opportunities

Associated Tech Readiness Tech Development and Commercialisation

Associated Tech Readiness All Spectrums Included

Recommendation

Possible to participate in funding competitions if there are relevant quantum computing projects within selected challenges

•

Possible to join the group as well as follow its media for relevant news and events, e.g. Public consultation on quantum tech funding for FP9 of EU Commission (Closed on 3 April 2018)

UNITED KINGDOM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

INNOVATE UK CHALLENGE PROGRAMME Below are examples of funding competitions that companies can participate in for Innovate UK funding The next round of identified challenges and associated funding competitions open from 2019 onwards COMMERCIALSING QUANTUM DEVICES

PRECISION MED TECH: SHAPING THE FUTURE

•

UK businesses or research technology organisations can apply for a share of up to £5 million to develop precision medicine tech

•

Work alone or in partnership with other UK businesses or research organisations

•

OPEN PROGRAMME FUNDING

•

UK businesses can apply for a share of up to £20m to collaborate on prototype quantum devices that meet end user needs with a clear route to market

•

Projects with open themes that take customer and user needs into account to deliver more desirable and useful solutions

•

Closes 13 June 2018

•

Work alone or in collaboration with businesses or research organisations

•

Closes 11 July 2018

Project can be on feasibility studies, industrial research or experimental development. Funding for eligible project costs of up to for 50% feasibility studies / industrial research and up to 25% for experimental development for large businesses.

EUROPE

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL HORIZON 2020 GRANTS HORIZON 2020 CALL : “HEALTH”

• Possible to propose projects for funding under various topics

• Up to 70% or 100% EU funding depending on type of funding action for each topic QUANTUM TECH FLAGSHIP PROGRAMME

• Possible to propose projects for funding under the flagship initiative

POLICY GAPS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

GAPS IN CURRENT UK POLICIES LACK OF FOCUS ON SOFTWARE & ALGORITHMS “We have a leading manufacturing industry and there is strong interest in software and applications for QC, but this is often not in the focus of funding agencies.”

LACK OF INDUSTRY LEADER “Having industry leaders anchoring a project can help advance the entire ecosystem. For example, the Google project has helped catalyzed investments into quantum computing software startups”

Max Riedel, Project Manager European Flagship Project John Martinis, Head of Google R&D Quantum Computing

• NQIT primarily focuses on hardware research and development of a quantum computer demonstrator (Q20:20 engine) as well as possible uses of the engine for real-world applications • Blackett report highlights the race to build a quantum computer and primarily focuses on hardware development • Lack of projects put up and funded for quantum computing algorithm research

• No clear industry leader in the UK leading quantum computing R&D ecosystem • Companies should take a more proactive stance to government policy advocacy

POLICY ADVOCACY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO UK GOVERNMENT

•

The UK government procures over £2 Bn goods and services annually1 Government can drive innovation through lead demand, by a) Increasing innovation procurement b) Identify areas where regular procurement needs can be transformed into opportunities to drive innovation

Innovation Opportunities

New products, markets, businesses

Supply Side Capabilities

PHASE 2

PHASE 3

Government identify innovation needs / problem statements

Government call RFP, work with potential companies to scope project

Selected companies develop solutions, with support

FEASIBILITY STUDY 1Source:

UK Government Annual Procurement Report and Accounts

PHASE 4 Government awards contract to selected companies / consortium

Why should the government adopt?

Solves the insufficient innovation demand problem Drives economy through multiplier effects of enterprise R&D / BERD Enhance innovation capacity of UK-based enterprises

Government must commit to procure a specified quantity of developed solution, if it meets articulated need within cost bound PHASE 1

STRATEGY

Receives feasible solution for public sector problems / requirements

Demand Side Innovation Need

POLICY

BENEFITS FOR UK / GOVERNMENT

1. GOVERNMENT LEAD DEMAND: INNOVATION PROCUREMENT •

TECHNOLOGY

PHASE 5 Refine, field test, and deployment

DEPLOYMENT

BENEFITS FOR THE CLIENT Government as major client committed to procure the project Opportunity to testbed new technologies. and build track record through demonstration client

POLICY ADVOCACY

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO UK GOVERNMENT 2. HEALTHCARE + QUANTUM COMPUTING CONSORTIUM Companies can: a. build a private-sector quantum computing ecosystem consisting of SMEs, startups and other MNCs (if viable) b. Push for the government to set up a public sector research institute led consortium, with support mechanisms or levers such as co-funding â&#x20AC;¢

Consortium members can make up quantum computing healthcare value chain, and Instead of taking passive stance, the consortium can be proactive to propose ideas to the government

EXAMPLE: CONSORTIUM LED BY PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH AGENCY (SINGAPORE)

iPSP Consortium, which brings together pharmaceutical and chemicals industry players to address challenges in the high value chemicals sector

1Source:

A*STAR Aerospace Programme, with most of the leading aerospace OEMs and local aero companies. The consortium undertakes precompetitive research to find solutions required by members

UK Government Annual Procurement Report and Accounts

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

BENEFITS FOR UK / GOVERNMENT Why should the government adopt? Further entrench the R&D ecosystem in the UK Intensify R&D activities in the UK, to seed capabilities for the future Drives value creation by maximizing returns on industry research dollars Enhance innovation capacity of UK-based enterprises BENEFITS FOR COMPANIES Enhance partnerships especially in pre-competitive research Opportunity to co-develop technologies and spread risks

POLICY LANDSCAPE

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS FOR POLICY SECTION

Policy / Regulatory Landscape Has Not Caught up ith This Nascent Intersection Policy landscape generally focused on either quantum computing as a class of technology or healthcare as a sector. No programs targeted at this intersection. Companies should take a proactive approach to incept new ideas under existing overarching or generic grant programs.

Opportunity to be a Policy Influencer and Industry Leader No major technological companies or healthcare players have established themselves as a key influencer in this intersection. Opportunity to take a proactive approach to build a collation network and seed idea policy recommendations to the government.

This section presents the teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strategy recommendations for the Client Resources Talents

1 Ideas

Anchor

Inputs

STRATEGY

STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS

Connect

2 Build

to be global leader

KEY SUMMARY POINTS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

MAIN CONCLUSIONS / PREDICTIONS

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

1 A HYBRID NEAR-FUTURE

Our team predicts, based on data and interviews with key experts, that the initial use cases and most effective applications would utilize a hybrid model, with quantum computers performing specific tasks that classical computers are unable to perform.

2 AN EVOLVING VALUE MODEL No one, not even the key experts from the large companies, could predict the dominant business model that would emerge. The value capture/business model will likely keep evolving based on the technological development.

3 UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Quantum could, not Quantum wouldâ&#x20AC;? Image from IBM Q

The strategy our team designed takes into account the evolving nature of quantum computing as a horizontal class of technology, and (potentially) long development runway, the multitude of possibilities, and the intersection of different domains and disciplines.

Quantum computing technology is nascent, without proven commercial applications and business models at this stage, especially in healthcare. None of the experts consulted was willing to confidently predict particular healthcare area(s) that quantum computing would succeed.

Healthcare of the future, enabled and augmented by quantum computing, could have an entirely different ecosystem â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with sophisticated diagnostic tools, cloud-based platform applications, artificial intelligence â&#x20AC;&#x201C; an extensive toolbox of powerful therapeutic instruments. The Client need to anchor current advantages, build new capabilities, and connect to global networks.

Anchor | Build | Connect

STRATEGY DESIGN

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

KEY INTENTS & PRINCIPLES

Leverage existing capabilities

Ecosystem approach and considerations

Explore both lowhanging fruits & moonshots

2 Synergies between business & technology

Position company to capture future opportunities

Taking into account trends & time horizons

STRATEGY OVERVIEW

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

ANCHOR | BUILD | CONNECT

ANCHOR

Anchor key in-house technologies, defend competitive advantages, gain market share in core areas

CONNECT

Build new capabilities, drive new value creation, acquire new technologies, create new markets

BUILD The team validated the strategy during the consultations / interviews

Connect to global networks, influence policies, advocate for positive changes

STRATEGY

ADVANCED THERAPIES HEALTHCARE IT SERVICES

The roadmap governs how technology will support business strategy and drive business priorities over a time horizon ASSESS ASSESS

ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS ASSESS

PRECISION MEDICINE

EVALUATE VALUE

COMPUTER-ASSISTED SURGERY

EVALUATE VALUE

PROTON THERAPY

EVALUATE VALUE

IMMUNOTHERAPY

EVALUATE VALUE

POPULATION HEALTH

EVALUATE VALUE

OTHERS

EVALUATE VALUE

INFRASTRUCTURE

GATHER REQUIREMENTS

2 EVALUATE NEW AND

FUNDING

GATHER BUDGET NEEDS

ADJACENT AREAS

R&D UNIT

ASSESS R&D NEEDS

OPERATIONS

ASSESS OPS NEEDS

HUMAN RESOURCE

ASSESS HR NEEDS

Analyze adjacencies that Client can move into, for potential value creation and capture

ADMINISTRATIVE

2020 & beyond

2019

2018

ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE DEVELOP CAPABILITIES DEVELOP CAPABILITIES DEVELOP CAPABILITIES DEVELOP CAPABILITIES

DEVELOP CAPABILITIES DEVELOP CAPABILITIES

ITERATIVE DEVELOPMENT & MONITOR FOR DISRUPTION

POC DIAGNOSTICS

INFRASTRUCTURE ALLOCATION FUNDING ALLOCATION R&D RESOURCES ALLOCATION AND SUPPORT OPERATIONS COORDINATION AND SUPPORT HR ALLOCATION, COORDINATION AND SUPPORT ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESSES AND SUPPORT

ITERATIVE DEVELOPMENT

These are areas that may potentially be disrupted first

LAB DIAGNOSTICS

STRATEGY

POLICY

Milestone 3: New capabilities and business models developed

To analyze/evaluate Client’s current core competencies and business units that: i. Have technology dependencies ii. Require highperformance/exascale computing power, iii. Have specific computational issues; iv. Requires computer processing solutions v. Areas with big quantum advantage, where being first mover will give a huge advantage

MEDICAL IMAGING

TECHNOLOGY

Milestone 2: New releases with updated technology etc.

ASSESS CURRENT CORE COMPETENCIES

NEW AREAS / ADJACENCIES

EXISTING COMPETENCIES

A1. TECHNOLOGY & OPERATIONS ROADMAP

COMMERCIAL

Milestone 1: comprehensive report detailing specific tech areas to pursue, internal R&D requirements, licensing needs, business model designs, as well as funding, operations, HR, infrastructure allocations etc

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

A1. TECHNOLOGY & OPERATIONS ROADMAP

EXAMPLE: MEDICAL EQUIPMENT VALUE CHAIN Research & Product Development

Prototyping Product Development Process Development Regulatory Approval

•

Component Manufacturing

Assembly

Distribution

Sales & Marketing

After-Sales Services

Software Development

Assembly

Logistics

Sales Activities

Consulting

Electronics Components

Packaging

Transportation

Account Management

Maintenance

Precision Metal Works

Quality Control

Product Handling

Promotional Activities

Training

Plastics Works

Will addition of QPU enhance create new functions or speed up processes greatly? cost efficiency?

•

Can quantum computing software or algorithm significantly enhance performance? Cost efficiency?

Support

•

Can quantum simulations optimize entire logistics process? Risks?

Key is to examine throughout the value chain of every core competency • identify areas that require HPC/exascale; • Can be optimized with quantum computing • Evaluate risk reward pay-offs • Value creation / capture opportunities

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

A1. TECHNOLOGY & OPERATIONS ROADMAP

NEXT STEP: DETERMINE DEVELOPMENT / PERFORMANCE MODEL HYBRID COMPUTATION MODELS FOR CONSIDERATION SHARED RESOURCE MODEL

SHARED MEMORY MODEL

ACCELERATOR MODEL

•

Simpler scheduling and programming models

•

Asymmetric multiprocessing system

Money/Cost = Rate x Time

Tight integration vs Loose Integration

•

Multiple nodes sharing few QPUs

•

Dedicated QPU for each node

•

Distributed but synchronized programs

•

Balance between quantum and classical / HPC design

Fits existing distributed accelerator design

•

Supplemented with quantum network

Analyse (1) Performance, (2) Efficiency, (3) Cost, (4) Scalability

Source: Travis Humble, Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

STRATEGY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL HEALTHCARE AREAS OTHER POTENTIAL AREAS THAT WILL BE ENABLED / AUGMENTED BY QUANTUM COMPUTING, IDENTIFIED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF DATA, PATENTS, INTERVIEWS, AND PUBLICATIONS, PRIMARILY BASED ON EVALUATING HEALTHCARE AREAS DEPENDENT ON HPC/EXASCALE COMPUTING

PATIENT SPECIFIC TREATMENT / PRECISION MEDICINE

Model of tumour growth in a rat brain before radiation treatment (left) and after one session of radiotherapy (right). The different colours represent tumour cell concentration, with red being the highest. Treatment reduced the tumour mass substantially.

Medical decisions, therapies, interventions and/or products being tailored to the individual patient based on their predicted response or risk of disease.

Example: Researchers at UT Austin are mathematizing cancer to predict how it will progress in specific individuals. Supercomputers are used to synthesize formulas will specific patient data. Quantum computers can greatly enhance the process. Image source: Lam et al. (2017), Hormuth et al. (2017)

DIGITAL TWIN / COMPUTER-ASSISTED SURGERY

A volumetric finite element mesh is generated by intersecting a structured grid with the 3D surface as the boundary. The method is used to generate tumour models for more precise surgeries.

Surgery is a common way to treat many medical problems such as cancer, but it has complications. For example, removing too little or too much of a tumour can cause relapse or harm a patient. The more data acquired, the more confidence surgeons have in planning surgical simulations. Quantum computing can help improve the process. Example: Researchers at the MD Anderson Cancer Center used advanced computing resources to perform minimally invasive laser treatment on a canine tumour without a surgeon. Image source: David Fuetes, MD Anderson Cancer Center

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CANCER DIAGNOSTICS

Testing a cell clump sample for malignancy using neural networks. In the image, ten unique neural networks with different set of weights yet trained on the same data set are created for the malignancy test. The input data is then tested on all ten neural networks.

The challenge of diagnosing cancer are well documented – and that no single test can accurately succeed. A typical cancer study requires over 8 million measurements from a single tumour. It may be possible to deploy quantum computing enabled artificial neural networks to greatly speed up the process while minimizing diagnosis errors. Example: University of Illinois has been using supercomputers to engineer nanocarriers that be used to detect and capture cancerous DNA molecules. Image source: William Guss

PROTON & RADIATION THERAPY

In many case, proton beam therapy is an advanced over traditional radiotherapy, especially in patients with cancer located close to critical organs and body structures.

The pinpoint accuracy required by such treatment means that the device must be properly calibrated and human error considered. With over 20,000 variables, designing a procedure to manage possible errors is a huge computational problem. Quantum computers may be able to resolve this Example: Researchers at Mayo Clinic, Arizona, used TACC supercomputers to develop a model for treatment planning that is more accurate at sparing organs than current methods. Image source: Mayo Clinic, Arizona

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

IMMUNOTHERAPY / IMMUNO-ONCOLOGY

GENOMICS / GENE THERAPY

Immunotherapy fights cancer by super-charging immune system’s natural defences (including T-cells) or contributing additional immune elements to help the body kill cancerous cells.

The CRISPR-Cas9 method for genome editing – a powerful new technology with many new applications in biomedical research, including the potential to treat genetic diseases.

Differences in individuals’ immune systems may mean one treatment is more effective that another, since not every immune therapy works the same on every patient. Quantum computers can help to perform simulations effectively to determine tumour responses to the treatments, to find the best treatment.

Genomic research with supercomputers have helped researchers identify cancer risk factors and classify how patients will respond to different types of treatment. Quantum computers can greatly enhance the efficiency, as they can be great at finding patterns in massive datasets.

Example: Texas Advanced Computing Centre researchers uses supercomputers to classify patients’ immune response, design clinical trials and analyse immune repertoire data. Image source: OriGene Technologies Inc.

Example: Researchers from the National Cancer Institute are using supercomputers to mine reams of data from Cancer Genome Atlas to identify genetic variants and patient subtypes. Image source: MCGovern Institute for Brain Research, MIT

STRATEGY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

COGNITIVE HEALTHCARE

Cognitive computing systems are disrupting healthcare and life sciences

Cognitive computing systems possess the ability to understand, reason, learn and interact (ability to simulate human thought process). Quantum computing can enhance and facilitate population health management, effective care delivery, and performance optimization through cognitive computing. Example: IBM Watson claimed to possess cognitive healthcare capabilities, and can be utilised for areas including oncology, population health and drug discovery. Image source: Healthcare IT News.

DRUG DESIGN & DISCOVERY

Drug discovery is the process by which new candidate medications are discovered.

Drug discovery costs billions of dollars, and often take decades to move into market., Quantum computers can help identify promising new chemotherapeutic drugs faster, with higher cost-efficiencies. Example: Researchers at MD Anderson Cancer Center are using supercomputers to virtually screen more than 1,400 FDA-approved small molecule drugs. Other teams have modelled cancer-related proteins at the atomic level. Image source: CompChemist

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL MARKET SIZES

1 Patient Specific Therapy / Precision Medicine $141.70

$43.59

2016

2026

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Rising demand • Personalized therapy approaches increasing • Technology advancements • Companion diagnostics, pharmacogenomics, bioinformatics etc foreseen to drive growth

2 Computer Assisted Surgery

3 Cancer Diagnostics

$40.10 $16.55

2016

2025

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Cancer one of the leading cause of deaths • Escalating prevalence of disease • Expected rising demand for imaging modalities such as CT & MRI.

4 Proton / Radiation Therapy

$6.80 $4.00

2016

2021

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Rising demand • Increasing incident rate of chronic diseases • Rising awareness • Introduction of technologically advanced systems

Data from BIS Market Research, Research and Markets, Business Wire

$1.10

2016

$1.45

2025

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Proton therapy devise are costly and space consuming equipment • Overall market not as expected to grow as fast as other segments

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL MARKET SIZES

7 Cognitive Healthcare

5 Immuno-Therapy $119.39 $61.90

2016

2021

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Rising R&D • Growing adoption of advanced therapeutics • Rising incidence of cancer • High prices may affect market growth

6 Gene Therapy

$1.65 2016

2024

Market Drivers • Led by increasing burden of chronic diseases • Technology advancements • Rising adoption of computing platforms

Market Size ($ Billion)

8 Drug Discovery $4.40

$0.58 2016

$13.30

2025

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Over 1,000 molecules in the pipeline since 2016, about 75% in developmental phase, expected to hit the market in 2020s • US and Europe poised to occupy largest share

Data from MarketsandMarkets, Allied Market Research, Grand View Research, BCC Research

$85.80 $59.90

2017

2022

Market Size ($ Billion)

Market Drivers • Rising expenditure, deterioration in human health and need for effective therapies • New computational methods leading to advent of high-throughput

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CASE STUDY: IBM

IBM COGNITIVE HEALTHCARE

POPULATION HEALTH SIMULATION EXAMPLE

Visualization of Kenya, populated with data such as location of healthcare facilities Features include: • Simulate diseases for various scenarios using mathematical models • Allows governments to better understand at-risk groups, and target interventions appropriately • Simulate where vaccinations should be administered, based on parameters such as transmission/incidences of diseases etc

Source: IBM Watson

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CASE STUDY: NVIDIA

NVIDIA CLARA

NVIDIA’S SUPERCOMPUTING PLATFORM FOR MEDICAL IMAGING Machine learning, deep learning and AI are generating exciting opportunities for advanced image analysis and quantification Medical imaging instruments have been vital to early detection and improvement of patient outcomes, and innovation in the field has come from improvements in detector technology and, more recently, parallel computing. Clara is a virtual system that can run on many computational instruments simultaneously, by leveraging NVIDIA vGPUs to enable multi-user access. Clara is also able to perform computation for any instrument, whether MR, CT, ultrasound or mammography. The leap to quantum computing technologies will further disrupt the landscape, posting a significant threat to the Client core businesses.

Source: Nvidia

STRATEGY – ANCHOR

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

A2. INTERNAL PLATFORM / MARKETPLACE

Set up an internal R&D platform / marketplace, to collect, consolidate and streamline problem statements and R&D requirements from the Client’ various business units, and prioritise key areas to work on. Quantum Computing is a horizontal class of technology affecting different verticals, and streaming R&D efforts will greatly enhance its efficiency.

Business Unit

Internal R&D Platform for Streamlining

Business Unit

R&D Unit

STRATEGY

STRATEGY – BUILD

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

B1. OPEN HEALTHCARE INNOVATION LAB / CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE Collaborative Innovation Set up an independent digital open innovation lab (or Centre of Excellence) – adopting an open innovation ecosystem approach involving other MNCs, SMEs, startups, and academics to work on digital healthcare solutions. Likely First-of-its-kind in quantum computing healthcare. PARALLEL MODELS IN OTHER SECTORS:

BUILD SPACE

OPEN INNOVATION PROGRAM

Image from Jing Zhang

ADVANCED REMANUFACTURING & TECHNOLOGY CENTRE

OPEN INNOVATION

Can work on blue-skies and white-space type R&D, or problem statements defined by the Client’ business units

Ecosystem Approach To involve MNCs like Google and IBM, SMEs, startups, and researchers to work on healthcare solutions. Offers the Client ready network of partners for consortiums etc.

Investment/M&A/Licensing Opportunities the Client have exposure and opportunity to invest in or acquire early stage startups with proven technologies (or license key technologies).

Technology Exposure First-hand exposure to a wide range of technologies, and ability to test-bed solutions in a costefficient manner, without the need to set up instruments such as CVC.

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

OPEN HEALTHCARE INNOVATION LAB / CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE

STRATEGY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BUILD

B2. DIGITAL HEALTH PLATFORM Launch a virtual collaborative digital health platform with different tools, allowing users to manage healthcare analytics and perform simulations. The platform can tap quantum computing hardware power from sources like Google and IBM. Likely first-of-its kind, and allows the Client to leverage healthcare expertise to create value in new areas, and explore new business models.

POSSIBLE BUSINESS MODELS: PLATFORM AS A SERVICE (PaaS)

SUBSCRIPTION

PAY-AS-YOU-USE

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

Cloud platform to host healthcare innovation projects

Dashboard to manage healthcare data and analytics

A myriad of tools for users and clients

OTHER SUCCESSFUL PLATFORMS:

Client strong in device/instrumentbased market, but can improve in platform based businesses

Accommodates various business models

STRATEGY – BUILD

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

B2. DIGITAL HEALTH PLATFORM

HOW THE PROPOSED PLATFORM WOULD WORK HARDWARE PROVIDERS

ANALYTICS & SIMULATION TOOLS

END-USER GROUPS USERS

Use quantum computing hardware architecture from sources such as Google and IBM

Different healthcare functionalities on the platform and their associated tools (e.g. APIs, SDKs). • Users can mix and match, utilising tools that they require for analysis and simulations • Developers can also build applications on the platform • Dashboard provides data analytics and controls • Drive value creation, and provides a modality to capture value in areas such as digital and population health

Different user groups with differentiated pricing model. • Government agencies, large organisations, SMEs, startups, researchers

STRATEGY – BUILD

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

POLICY

INTERNAL + EXTERNAL INTEGRATION Internal R&D Platform /Marketplace Problem statements, R&D and technology requirements from various business units

Digital Health Platform

ANALYTICS & SIMULATION TOOLS END-USER GROUPS USER S Business Unit

TWO-WAY SYMMETRICAL INTERACTION

Business Unit

R&D Unit

Creates networks of external collaborators solving the Client’ problems

the Client able to streamline R&D, technology development, and solutions sourcing.

Exposure to wide range of technologies and ideas in a cost-efficient manner

Lean, iterative development loop manner ensures best ideas selected and developed

STRATEGY – BUILD

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

POTENTIAL NEW MARKETS – FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE

THE STRATEGIES WOULD HELP CAPTURE NEW MARKETS

DIGITAL HEALTH Digital health market set to exceed US$350 bn by 20241, UK represents ~10% of the global market. Digital health systems represent the largest market both globally and in the UK, where they contribute 66% of digital health sales.

DIGITAL HEALTH GLOBAL FINANCING2 $8,000 $7,000 $6,093 $5,903

$6,000

$5,271

$5,000 $4,000 $3,000

$2,460

$1,780 $1,509 $1,022 $1,000 $537

$2,000

Disclosed Funding ($ mil) Poly. (Disclosed Funding ($ mil)) 1Data

from Global Market Insights and Deloitte, 2Data from CB Insights, 3Chart from McKinsey Research

GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR DIGITAL HEALTH3

STRATEGY – BUILD

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

POTENTIAL NEW MARKETS – FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE

THE STRATEGIES WOULD HELP CAPTURE NEW MARKETS POPULATION HEALTH Population health market size set to exceed US$100 bn by 20251. Global public healthcare spending set to increase . POPULATION HEALTH AREAS: • Reporting and management • Population analytics • Predictive modelling • Clinical systems integration • Care management • Patient engagement • Quality management • Revenue management

1Chart

from Commonwealth Fund Study

PUBLIC POPULATION HEALTHCARE SPENDING1

STRATEGY

STRATEGY – CONNECT

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

POLICY

C1. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT PLAN High Influence High Interest High Influence Low Interest

Design and implement a stakeholder engagement plan based on the framework provided below.

Partnership Low Influence High Interest

Participation

Low Influence Low Interest

TASKS

Push Communications Pull Communications

• Academia • Startups

• Hardware Partners • Policy-makers

• Public Research Institutes 50 • SMEs

50 Influence

100

OUTPUTS

Significance

100

Identify Stakeholders

Assess Stakeholders

Plan Engagement

Engage Stakeholders

• Identify key stakeholders

• Conduct stakeholder assessment

• Create comms plan

• Execute comms & engagement plan

• Identify stakeholder reps

• Prioritise Stakeholders

• Identify engagement activities

• Create initial List

• Develop stakeholder map

• Develop engagement plan

Stakeholder List

Stakeholder Map

2. Stakeholder Grid 3. Updated Stakeholder List

Stakeholder comms & engagement plan

• Monitor progress and outcomes

Updated plan

2. Comms & engagement activities 3. Monitor KPIs & Feedback

STRATEGY – CONNECT

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

STRATEGY

POLICY

9 Monitor & Evaluate

Identify Issues

Refine & Improve Plan

Implement Plan

7 Analyse Situation

3 Specify Objectives

• Coalition Building • Consortium building

• Scientific Advisory Panel • Industry roundtables • Industry Seminars • Demonstrations

Design Advocacy Plan

6 Analyse Capabilities

• Regulatory feedback

Analyse Issues

• Partnerships

ENGAGE

Finalise Objectives

• Lobbying

• Policy Advocacy • Focus Groups

• Conferences

AWARE

ACTION

C2. POLICY ADVOCACY PLAN

• Online presence • Educational activities

• Publications / Blogs • Online presence

• Publications / Blogs

• Public Forums

PUBLIC

INDUSTRY

POLICY-MAKERS

STRATEGY â&#x20AC;&#x201C; CONNECT

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

RECOMMENDED ACTIVITIES

Explore Industry, Academia, Public Sector Partnerships Explore partnerships with academia, public sector and industry. For example, partner NQIT to work on specific use cases in quantum computing for healthcare in higher TRL levels. Partnerships in key nodes will also provide the Client with access and R&D opportunities in the network. Partnering with key hardware developers such as IBM will also give up-to-date information. Such partnerships are relatively cost efficient, possess potential to develop applied solutions, and do not require large capital expenditure.

Scientific Advisory Panel / Board for Quantum Computing Healthcare Consider setting up a scientific panel for quantum computing healthcare, inviting top experts from major research organisations and academia. Such a panel will further cement the Clientâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reputation as a leading healthcare influencer and provide valuable insights. Scientific panels are a popular soft advocacy mechanism in many countries, such as Singapore.

THANK YOU MPhil in Technology Policy

APPENDIX

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

GENERAL TRENDS AND INTEREST Quantum Computing still a Niche Domain

SEARCH ENGINE INTEREST (5-YEAR PERIOD)

Comparison with key technology trends such as IoT and cloud computing based on search engine interest suggest quantum computing still a niche area, with limited interest. INTEREST BY REGION

*United Kingdom at 25th at the time of generating data

Data Source: imported from Google trends data

China seems to display higher proportion of interest in quantum computing over the past 5 years,

COMMERCIAL ECOSYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CASE STUDY: PHILIPS

Phillips collaborated with Amazon Web Services as part of its strategy to enable create a digital health ecosystem.

Features include: • Collecting and analysing data from apps and devices • Secure cloud platform • Scalable IoT environment Illustration from Philips & Amazon Web Services

MARKET SIZING

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

MEDICAL IMAGING MARKET – EMEA EMEA SHORT TERM MARKET TRENDS

MI MATURITY

•

40 35 30

•

25 20 15 10

MI SOFTWARE MATURITY

5 0 2017

2018

Medical Imaging

2019

2020

2021

Medical Imaging Software

EMR/HER

• •

Overall, the Medical Imaging (MI) Software Market accounts for $0.78 bn MI Overall market growth is 3.75% for EMEA, with MRI and Ultrasound at ca. 6% MI Software expected growth is at 6-8% per year in the nearest future Despite MI is approaching its maturity, the Software segment still has potential for growth in the nearest 5-10 years

EMEA SOFTWARE MARKET BY APPLICATION 4.5 4

0.313

3.5 3 2.5

0.164

0.125

1.5

0.111 1.056

0.068

0.5 0

General X- Ultrasound MRI CT Scanners SPECT/PET EMR/EHR ray Software/Digital Application Source: Technavio, Global Market Insights

From the Digital Health applications, the Electronic Health/Medical Records Segment has potential depth for investigation. This market is expected to grow at >25% CAGR until 2024, giving potential opportunities for big data processing

CURRENT STATE

QUANTUM BITS (QUBIT) TECHNOLOGY TYPES OF QUBITS

Source: C. Bickel and Gabriel Popkin (Science)

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

CURRENT STATE

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

TECHNOLOGY / COMMERCIAL READINESS LEVEL

HARDWARE DEVELOPERS STATUS AND COMPARISON 0 Qubits

3 to 5 Qubits

5 to 100 Qubits

>1,000 Qubits

Myriad of companies and universities attempting to develop commercially and/or application ready quantum computers, using different methods Organization

Qubit Type

Qubit Coherence

No. of Qubits

Est. Year of useful applications

D-Wave

Superconducting

Low

2,048

Present

Google

Superconducting

Medium

~2018

IBM

Superconducting

Medium

2020-2015

Rigetti

Superconducting

Medium

2020-2015

PsiCorp/ Bristol

Photonic

High

2020-2015

Intel/Delft

Superconducting

Medium

2020-2025

MIT

Superconducting

Medium

2020-2025

Oxford

Trapped Ions

High

2025

UNSW

Quantum Dots

Medium

2025

Innsbruck

Trapped Ions

High

2025

Microsoft

Classical

Unknown

2030

Qubit Count Source: QC Ware

10 0

TECH ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

PATENT SPATIAL MAP

Patent Spatial Map by Companies / Region

NORTH AMERICA COMPANIES

EUROPEAN & JAPANESE COMPANIES

CHINESE COMPANIES

Large companies in Europe and Japan seem more interested in other areas of quantum technologies (e.g. quantum cryptography). Some significant quantum computing patenting activities by North America & Chinese companies. = Key Areas of Interest Source: Clarivate Analytics and Patinfomatics

10 1

OVERVIEW & TRENDS

INTRODUCTION

COMMERCIAL

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

STRATEGY

ANALYSING PATENT ACTIVITIES PATENT BY COUNTRIES1

Clear Leaders Emerging • US clear leader in quantum technology development from patenting perspective • Other top countries include Canada, Japan, UK and China (China relatively new to the field) • Most quantum computing inventions relatively evenly distributed across three categories of hardware, qubits and application (hardware slightly higher) 1Source:

UK Intellectual Property Office, European Commission, Image from D-Wave

10 2