Zenith Global Report
2019
European Zero Alcohol Drinks An overview of the European zero alcohol drinks market.
Copyright All copyright in this document is reserved. Liability This document contains information and may contain conclusions and recommendations. Every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate and that the opinions expressed are sound. However, Zenith Global Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses resulting from decisions based on the information. Important notice on distribution This report should not be quoted, referred to or transmitted to another party, in whole or in part, with out the prior written consent of Zenith Global Ltd. Should you desire to release a copy of this report to another party for information purposes, we request you and the requesting party to indemnify Zenith Global Ltd from any liability related to the report distribution. Such readers however will not be considered “users� of this report.
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Contents Section 1. Introduction and scope 2. Executive Summary 3. European zero alcohol drinks market overview 4. European zero alcohol drinks opportunities 5. Zero alcohol drinks market analysis: UK Russia
Germany Spain 6. Brand profiles
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Introduction and scope
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1. Introduction and scope Overview Commentary
Scope Commentary
The data presented in this report covers the following countries •East Europe: Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
•West Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
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1. Introduction and scope Definition Zero alcohol drinks For the purposes of this report, Zero-alcohol drinks are defined as beverages containing less than 0.5% alcohol by volume (abv), marketed as alternatives to beer, cider, wine and spirits. The market thus includes: Zero-alcohol beer Zero-alcohol cider Zero-alcohol wine Zero-alcohol spirits Whilst zero-alcohol beer, cider and wine are marketed as drinks offering all the characteristics of their alcoholic counterparts, except the alcohol, zeroalcohol spirits differ, in that it is not possible to remove the alcohol from spirits and still have spirits. Zero-alcohol spirits are thus defined as botanical/herbal distillations clearly marketed as alternatives to spirits, most commonly gin.
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Executive summary
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2. Executive summary Key findings Commentary
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European zero alcohol drinks market overview
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3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Sub-regions’ Zero alcohol drinks volume and value share Zero alcohol drinks volume share by sub-region, 2018
50.0%
West Europe East Europe 50.0%
Zero alcohol drinks value share by sub-region, 2018
25.0%
West Europe East Europe
75.0%
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Commentary
3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market volume and value Million litres Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 16,000
% growth 12.0%
10.0%
14,000
8.3%
9.1%
12,000
10.0%
7.7%
7.1%
10,000 8,000
8.0% 6.0%
6,000
4.0%
4,000 2.0%
2,000 0
0.0% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Volume in million litres
Million litres
2017
2018
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth
3,600
3.4% 3.3%
3,500
3.3%
3,400
3.2%
3,300
3.2% 3.1%
3,200
3.1% 3.0%
3,100
2.9%
3,000
3.0% 2.9%
2,900
2.8%
2,800 2,700
2.7% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Value in million Euros
11
% growth
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2017 % change
2018
Commentary
3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Top 4 Zero alcohol drinks consumption countries Commentary
Top 4 countries by volume, 2018 5.0%
25.0% 20.0%
Country A
Country B Country C Country D Others 25.0%
25.0%
Top 4 countries by value, 2018
5.0%
25.0% Country A
20.0%
Country B Country C Country D Others 25.0% 25.0% 12
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3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks price evolution
Euro 8.00 6.00 4.00
2.00 0.00
2013 2014 2015 Average price per litre (ppl) Country b ppl Country e
2018 price per litre - Euro
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Beer
2016
Wine
2017 2018 Country a ppl Country c ppl
Spirits
2019
Mocktails
3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Consumer profile Commentary
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3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Zero alcohol drinks volume share by sub-region, 2023f
East Europe West Europe 50.0%
50.0%
Top 4 countries by volume, 2023f Country A 20.0%
Country B 20.0%
Country C Country D Others
20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
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Commentary
3. European Zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
16.7%
12.5%
14.3% 0.0%
0.0% 2018
0.0% 2019f
2020f
2021f
2022f
Volume in million litres
18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2023f
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 33.3%
9,000
35.0%
8,000
30.0%
25.0%
7,000
20.0%
6,000
16.7%
5,000 4,000
25.0% 14.3%
9.1%
15.0%
3,000
10.0%
2,000
5.0%
1,000 0
0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Value in million Euros
16
20.0%
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2022f % change
2023f
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European Zero alcohol drinks opportunities
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4. European Zero alcohol drinks opportunities Highest growth countries Countries with the highest volume CAGR % 2018-23 Country D
25.0%
Country C
25.0%
Country B
25.0%
Country A
25.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Zero alcohol drinks market size in the highest growth countries
Million litres 1000
Country A 800
Country B
600
Country C
400
CountryD
200 0 2018
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2023
Commentary
4. European Zero alcohol drinks opportunities Countries with the highest opportunities Volume CAGR % 2018-23
Zero alcohol drinks dynamics by country - forecast
Countries with the biggest volume gains between 2018 and 2023 Country F
35%
Bubble size shows 2023 volume
225.0
Country E
200.0
Country D
30%
150.0
Country C 25%
115.0
Country B
85.0
Country A
20%
0.0
Commentary
15%
10%
5%
0% 0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
-5%
-10%
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Per capita consumption in 2023 (litres) Š Zenith Global Ltd 2019
14.00
50.0
100.0
150.0
300.0 Additional volume in million litres 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0
4. European Zero alcohol drinks opportunities Zero alcohol drinks SWOT analysis
S
Strengths
Commentary
O
Opportunities
Commentary
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W
Weaknesses
Commentary
T
Threats
Commentary
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Zero Alcohol drinks market analysis United Kingdom
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UK zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market volume and value Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 50
30.0%
45 20.0%
40
15.0%
35 30 5.0% 25
10.0%
20 -10.0%
15 10 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Volume in million litres
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0%
2018
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 350 40.0%
300 250
30.0%
200
25.0% 20.0%
150 100
10.0%
50 2013
2014
2015
2016
Value in million Euros
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2017 % change
2018
45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
UK zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks variants and packaging Zero alcohol drinks types - % volume share, 2018
Zero alcohol drinks sectors Commentary
34.0% 33.0%
33.0% Beer
Wine
Others
Packaging volume % share, 2018
50.0% 50.0%
Glass bottles 23
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Cans
United Kingdom zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary Local currency
Zero alcohol drinks price evolution
Euro
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Price per litre in the local currency Price per litre in Euros
2018 price per litre
Local currency
Euro
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Beer
Wine
Spirit
Mocktail
United Kingdom zero alcohol drinks market overview Consumer and recent innovations Consumer profile Commentary
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UK zero alcohol drinks market overview Top players and innovations
Top zero alcohol drinks producers by volume, 2018 10.0%
20.0%
Top Players Commentary
10.0%
20.0%
20.0% 20.0%
Brand A Brand C Brand E Innovations Commentary
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Brand B Brand D Others/Private label
UK zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2018
2019
2020
2021
Volume in million litres
2022
2023
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 15.0%
450
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
440
430
16.0% 14.0%
10.0%
12.0%
10.0%
420
10.0%
410
8.0%
400
6.0%
390
4.0%
380
2.0%
370
0.0% 2018
2019
2020
2021
Value in million Euros
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2022 % change
2023
UK zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks SWOT analysis
S
Strengths
Commentary
O
Opportunities
Commentary
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W
Weaknesses
Commentary
T
Threats
Commentary
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Zero Alcohol drinks market analysis Russia
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Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market volume and value Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
30% 25%
35% 30%
20%
25% 20%
15%
15%
10%
10% 5% 0% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Volume in million litres
2017
2018
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 250
40%
32%
30%
200
20%
12%
7%
150 100
0%
-10%
-10%
-18% 50
-20%
0
-30% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Value in million Euros
30
10%
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2017 % change
2018
Commentary
Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks variants and packaging Zero alcohol drinks types % volume share, 2018 0.10%
Zero alcohol drinks variants Commentary
50.0% 49.9%
Beer
Wine
Others
Packaging volume % share, 2018 0.1%
Zero alcohol drinks packaging Commentary
49.9% 50.0%
Glass bottles
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Cans
Others
Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary Local currency
Zero alcohol drinks price evolution
Euro
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Price per litre in the local currency Price per litre in Euros
2018 price per litre
Local currency Euro
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Beer
Wine
Others
2019
Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Consumer and recent innovations Consumer profile Commentary
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Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Top players and innovations
Top zero alcohol drinks producers by volume, 2018
Top Players 20.0%
Commentary
20.0%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Brand A
Innovations Commentary
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Brand B
Brand C
Brand D
Others
Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 140
25.0%
120
20.0% 20%
100 80
15.0%
15.0% 15%
60
10.0%
10% 10%
40
5.0%
20
5%
0
0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
2022f
Volume in million litres
2023f
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 400
16%
350
14%
300
12%
14%
250 200 150
10% 9% 7%
8%
9% 7%
6%
6%
100
4%
50
2%
0
0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Value in million Euros
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2022f
2023f
% change
Russia zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks SWOT analysis
S
Strengths
Commentary
O
Opportunities
Commentary
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W
Weaknesses
Commentary
T
Threats
Commentary
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Zero Alcohol drinks market analysis Germany
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Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market volume and value Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135
8.0%
2013
8.0%
8.0%
2014
2015
8.0%
2016
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
8.0%
2017
Volume in million litres
2018
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 300
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
16.0% 14.0%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0
0.0% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Value in million Euros
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2017 % change
2018
Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks variants and packaging Zero alcohol drinks variants Zero alcohol drinks types - % volume share, 2018
Commentary
34.0%
33.0%
33.0% Beer
Wine
Others
Zero alcohol drinks packaging Commentary
Packaging volume % share, 2018 25.0% 25.0%
25.0% Glass bottles
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25.0% PET bottles
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Cans
Others
Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary Local currency
Zero alcohol drinks price evolution
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Price per litre in the local currency
2018 price per litre
Euro
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Beer
Wine
Spirit
Mocktail
2019
.
Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Consumer and recent innovations Consumer profile Commentary
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Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Top players and innovations Top Players
Top 5 zero alcohol drinks producers by volume, 2018 10.0%
Commentary 20.0%
10.0%
20.0% 20.0%
Brand A
Innovations
Commentary
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Brand B
Brand C
20.0% Brand D
Brand E
Others
Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 225
5.0%
5.0%
220
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
6.0% 5.0%
215
4.0%
210 3.0% 205 2.0%
200
1.0%
195 190
0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Volume in million litres
2022f
2023f
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
16.0% 15.0% 15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
14.0%
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Value in million Euros
43
15.0%
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2022f
2023f
% change
Germany zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks SWOT analysis
S
Strengths
Commentary
O
Opportunities
Commentary
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W
Weaknesses
Commentary
T
Threats
Commentary
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Zero Alcohol drinks market analysis Spain
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Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market volume and value Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 400.0
0.0%
350.0
-1.0%
300.0 -2.0%
250.0 200.0
-3.0%
150.0 100.0 -5.0%
50.0
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-5.0%
0.0
-6.0% 2013
2014
2015
2016
Volume in million litres
2017
2018
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 120.0
0.0%
100.0
-1.0%
80.0
-2.0%
60.0
-3.0%
40.0
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.0%
20.0
-5.0%
-
-6.0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
Value in million Euros
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-4.0%
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2017 % change
2018
Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks variants and packaging Zero alcohol drinks types - % volume share, 2018 20.0%
Zero alcohol drinks variants Commentary
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0% Beer
Wine
Spirit
Mocktail
Others
Packaging volume % share, 2018
Commentary
25.0%
25.0%
25.0% Glass bottles
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Zero alcohol drinks packaging
25.0% Cans
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Cartons
Others
Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary Local currency
Zero alcohol drinks price evolution
Euro
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Price per litre in the local currency Price per litre in Euros
2018 price per litre
Local currency
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Beer
Wine
Spirit
Mocktail
Others
Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Consumer and recent innovations Consumer profile Commentary
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Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Top players and innovations Top Players
Top 5 zero alcohol drinks producers by volume, 2018
Commentary
10.0% 20.0% 10.0%
20.0% 20.0%
Brand A Innovations Commentary
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Brand B
20.0% Brand C
Brand D
Brand E
Others
Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks market forecast Commentary
Zero alcohol drinks market volume and % growth 350 300
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
250 200
1.5%
150
1.0%
100
0.5%
50 0
0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Volume in million litres
2022f
2023f
% change
Zero alcohol drinks market value and % growth 1,200
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1,000
5.0%
800
4.0%
600
3.0%
400
2.0%
200
1.0%
0
0.0% 2018
2019f
2020f
2021f
Value in million Euros
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2022f % change
2023f
Spain zero alcohol drinks market overview Zero alcohol drinks SWOT analysis
S
Strengths
Commentary
O
Opportunities
Commentary
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W
Weaknesses
Commentary
T
Threats
Commentary
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Brand profiles
© Zenith Global Ltd 2019
6. Brand profiles Lager
Heineken 0.0 Heineken, Country website
Product information: Alcohol-free lager Launch date: 2017 Positioning and channels: Commentary Pack size and type: Price:
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