Operations &
Decision Sciences Club
NIRNAY
Aug-2011
Operations and Decision Sciences Club
NIRNAY Primary members Rakesh Tripathi M Pramod Ravi Shankar Mandeep Singh
Aditya P Satyaki Das
Sebastian Deric
Vijith V P
Ankur Singh
Vignesh Radhakrishnan
Mohanraj K
Bineet Kumar
Kush Sharma
Atif Alam
Anshul Arora
Mentor T. N. Badri, Ph.D. Great Lakes Institute of Management
MESSAGE FROM THE MENTOR I am happy to present before readers, the first issue of NIRNAY, a newsletter of the Operations Club of Great Lakes Institute of Management. We hope that it will provide inspiration to all those aspiring to achieve excellence in the operational function of any organization. The articles are by the people and for the people and should be accessible to all, while at the same time conveying knowledge that benefits the professional and lightens his burden. The first issue contains interesting article on Ant Colony Optimization by M. Pramod Ravi Shankar. This is a buzz word these days in heuristics for hard to solve problems. Another heuristic that is inspired by how organisms evolve and interact, are genetic algorithms, which have been extant since 1970s when John Holland formalized the notion of an evolutionary algorithm. The second article by Rakesh Tripathi touches upon emerging trends in supply chain management. He discusses optimization, IT integration, sustainability and a number of other issues. Finally we have some mathematical amusement in the form of a puzzle called Lockers. A most essential if humorless invention, the locker, what can be amusing about it? Only page 6 will tell! Page INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Quotes of the Month Articles Corner: Ant colony optimization algorithms Supply Chain Trends to Watch Operations & Gaming Puzzles & Riddles Reference
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NIRNAY Quote of the Month Happiness arises in a state of peace, not of tumult. Ann Radcliffe (1764 - 1823)
Articles Corner
Ant colony optimization algorithms
(Inspiring Ants) By M Pramod Ravi Shankar
The complex social behaviours of ants have been much studied by science, and computer scientists are now finding that these behaviour patterns can provide models for solving difficult combinatorial optimization problems. The attempt to develop algorithms inspired by one aspect of ant behaviour, the ability to find what computer scientists would call shortest paths, has become the field of ant colony optimization (ACO), the most successful and widely recognized algorithmic technique based on ant behaviour
Natural Ants Normal scenario
This algorithm is a member of ant colony algorithms family, in swarm intelligence methods, and it constitutes some metaheuristic optimizations. Initially proposed by Marco Dorigo in 1992 in his PhD thesis, the first algorithm was aiming to search for an optimal path in a graph, based on the behaviour of ants seeking a path between their colony and a source of food.
Obstacle has come in the path
Often applied to TSP (Travelling Salesman Problem): shortest path between n nodes 2
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NIRNAY
Natural ants: How do they do it? Pheromones are chemicals released by an organism into its environment enabling it to communicate with other members of its own species. Ants, as they return to the nest with food, lay down a trail pheromone. This trail attracts and guides other ants to the food. It is continually renewed as long as the food holds out. When the supply begins to dwindle, trail making ceases. The trail pheromone evaporates quickly so other ants stop coming to the site and are not confused by old trails when food is found elsewhere. And at least in one species of ant, trails that no longer lead to food are also marked with a repellent pheromone.
Evaluating 2 paths A & B
Since the route A is shorter, the ants on this path will complete the travel more times and thereby lay more pheromone over it. The pheromone concentration on trail will increase at a higher rate than on B, and soon the ants on route B will choose to follow route A .Since most ants will no longer travel on route B, and since the pheromone is volatile, trail B will start evaporating .Only the shortest route will remain!
Found the best path A
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NIRNAY Supply Chain Trends to Watch By Rakesh Tripathi
against the financial ramifications of outsourcing technology. There are many good commercial opportunities available for companies to consider.
The operation and management of today’s global supply chain continues to challenge executives worldwide. While the extended supply chain can make the world seem a whole lot smaller, its changeability, lengthy complexity, and vulnerability can baffle the most astute of operations managers trying to tame it. Many describe the long chain as a constantly moving target in continual flux. U.S. companies do things like continue to merge with other companies and move from one overseas sourcing and manufacturing locale to another in the constant quest for the lowest-cost labor and materials. Changing consumer expectations require supply chains that are more flexible and nimble than ever before. Today’s successful global supply chains are collaborative and involve people, processes, and technologies.
IT Integration The next level of potential supply chain improvement in efficiencies, resilience, and impact on carbon footprints will be the integration of real-time data and software. This integration will explicitly consider real-time control, based on real-time data using optimization or control software. Real-time information used for real-time supply chain control and optimization will be the wave of the future. There are huge amounts of data coming in real-time because of IT from inventory systems, at customers’ sites, and at suppliers’ sites. Companies need to know how to use all of this information so that, in real-time, they can make decisions to adjust the way they control and manage their supply chains. These real-time decisions can help solve the age old dynamic routing and dynamic touring for solving a dynamic travelling salesman problem. There are two operational examples. First relates to how to route trucks in an urban area from point A to point B through heavily congested areas. Rerouting can be done en route, based on current traffic data. Another example relates to pickup and delivery in a congested area. How about doing this dynamically as a driver arrives at one stop and then evaluates what the traffic looks like before deciding which stop to go to next?
Taming the chain Given how quickly and continuously everything is changing these days, it is essential to understand analytically the functioning of supply chains and to be able to know what strategies will produce the best results. This requires greater attention to creating supply chain solutions that are effective and efficient.
Outsourcing Technology (SaaS) While outsourcing logistics services like warehousing, transportation, and distribution has played a major role in optimizing the supply chain, we will see more outsourcing of technology, especially in software as a service (SaaS). For instance, examining your corporate core competencies—and what you are good at doing— 4
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NIRNAY not mitigate the labor savings because you have extra shipping costs, an impact of uncertainty in your supply chain, and you might have to carry safety stock close to your customers. So we should make sure to identify the benefits as well as the hidden costs. In order to make a good decision based on ROI, it needs to make a comprehensive calculation.
The Top Trends Are… •
Supply Chain Optimization
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IT Integration
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Measuring Supply Chain ROI
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Implementation of Collaborative Business Relationships
Supply Chain Sustainability
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‘Right-Sizing’ Companies
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Developing Regional Trade Hubs to Facilitate SMEs in Global Trade
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Movement toward Near-Sourcing— or Reverse Globalization—to shorten the Global Supply Chain Developing Appropriate Talent and Expertise
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Managing Disruptions through Business Continuity Planning
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Supply Chain Mission Change – Strategic Enablers
A ‘green’ supply chain is defined as encompassing the following phases: plan, buy, make, move, and sell. When environmental issues are taken into consideration, not only does it affect how these phases are executed, it also expands the model to add the consumption phase. The environmental footprint of consumption is influenced by the product’s design— which in turn affects how the supply chain works in terms of cost, complexity and efficiency. Environmental Considerations also add a post-consumption phase of return, reuse, and/or recycle. Adding these phases in a supply chain starts a reverse flow, transforming the supply chain into a closed-loop system. Three key drivers for supply chain sustainability include regulation (or fear of it), efficiency and customer opportunity. Today one can operate sustainably without it costing more to do so. For instance, the lean revolution in manufacturing— with its focus on reducing waste—has obvious environmental benefits.
Measuring ROI All supply chain decisions should be justified in terms of their economic effect. When U.S. companies fled to China for their manufacturing requirements, the top reason was wages there were lower than anywhere in the world. But what happens when a region becomes so popular its supply and demand causes wage rates to increase? You also have to recognize that you are a half a world away from North American markets and that there are consequential costs such as shipping fromChina at 12,000 miles away. This decision might
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NIRNAY OPERATIONS AND GAMING Aditya Ponugonti
In case no one is complaining, and you don’t know how good your systems are, get ready for some trouble shooting – This can be said to be the unwritten golden rule in the world of IT operations.Sony had to learn it the hard way. Sony likely lost $20 million in revenue, and $6 million in profits due to the PSN outage of two weeks. The issue was so damaging, that shareholders of the company asked its CEO to accept the responsibility and step down. What had actually happened? PSN, or the Playstation Network, is an online network accessed by PS3 and PSP users for online gaming and digital content all over the world. Any player, from any corner of the world, can play either competitively or cooperatively with player(s) across the world. While there had always been issues regarding the network performance, Sony’s response has mostly been AdHoc. On the un-fateful day of April 20th 2011, a hacker group aptly christened as “Anonymous”, had hacked the PSN, resulting in an outage.
PSN: Shutdown until prior notice!
Apart from the damage mentioned above, when PSN was resurrected two weeks later, Sony had to come with several free deliverables to pacify its loyal customers (read consumers). Sony wasn’t alone! While Sony was grappling with the issue at hand, it’s ‘arch-rival-brother’ Microsoft conveniently announced free-for-all Xbox Live event during the same period. Xbox Live, or XBL, is XBOX 360’s service synonymous to PSN, except for the difference that XBL is a paid service while PSN is free. 6
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NIRNAY But three years ago, in the beginning of 2008, XBL had experienced a similar problem. There was an erratic performance with respect to signing in XBL and retaining the log in credentials. Three Texas residents filed a lawsuit on behalf of themselves and others who have had trouble connecting to
XBL: WIP!!!
Xbox Live in those weeks. The suit didn’t claim specific damages, but noted the amount to be in excess of $5 million. The allegation was that Microsoft knew the increase in subscriptions during the holiday season of 2007 would increase game-play on its servers, and yet failed to provide adequate access and service to Xbox Live and its subscribers. What essentials have been overlooked? 1. People yell the loudest when their app is down, but there are other areas that deserve focus 2. Response times: Slow apps can harm the business and can be tricky to detect and resolve 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Error rates: 99% error-free transactions aren’t good enough. Scalability: System strain will increase, which could translate into availability problems Customers may be too angry, busy or confused to bring up issues Know all key elements of your systems (availability, response times, etc.) Thorough reporting each month (if not more often) Keep your IT team apprised of systems status Systems don't always work correctly. Flukes will continue if not addressed Analyze root causes. Fix problems to prevent them from reoccurring (Source: CIO Insight)
Future? The future of gaming industry is destined to become more networks dependent. Gaiki and OnLive services are already acting as an invitation to this future. OnLive is a cloud gaming platform: the games are synchronized, rendered, and stored on remote servers and delivered via the Internet. 7
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NIRNAY The service is available using the OnLive Game System, PCs running Microsoft Windows (XP, Vista, 7) and Intel-based Macs with OS X 10.5.8 or later. A low-end computer, as long as it can play video, may be used to play any kind of game since the game is computed on the OnLive server. For that reason, the service is being seen as a competitor for the console market. All games on the service are available in HD
OnLive Console: The magic box!
ready format. OnLive recommends an Internet connection of 5 Mbit/s or faster, and a 2 Mbit/s connection meets the minimum system requirements. Over 50 publishers, such as Take-Two, Ubisoft, Epic Games, Atari, Codemasters, THQ, Warner Bros., 2D Boy, Eidos Interactive, Disney Interactive Studios, and others have partnered with OnLive. Over 100 games are available on the service. If this is a snapshot of what’s in store, rest assured, it’s no more a mere “game”. Puzzles & Riddles Lockers
A high school has a strange principal. On the first day, he has his students perform an odd opening day ceremony: There are one thousand lockers and one thousand students in the school. The principal asks the first student to go to every locker and open it. Then he has the second student go to every second locker and close it. The third goes to every third locker and, if it is closed, he opens it, and if it is open, he closes it. The fourth student does this to every fourth locker, and so on. After the process is completed with the thousandth student, how many lockers are open?
Reference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algorithms http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=10139 http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/P/Pheromones.html 8