Climate change analysis: total precipitation

Climate changes have already reflected on the intra-annual water flow distribution in the rivers. The spring high waters, which were characteristic of the rivers of the Don basin, have significantly decreased, which in turn has led to deterioration of riverbed washing, the water only rarely reaches the floodplain in the spring and does not feed the floodplain reservoirs.

FIGURE 22.

Climate change analysis: total precipitation

RCP 4.5 According to some calculations33, no significant changes in the average flow are expected in the Don basin until 2040. In 2041-2070, the projections for the Siverskyi Donets indicate a slight increase in the flow: 4-7% under different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions. That is, there will be no significant changes in the flow in this region during this period. At the end of the century (2071-2100), the flow is expected to increase by an average of +6%.

RCP 8.5

State border Siverskyi Donets river Siverskyi Donets river basin Total precipitation, mm

0 – 10 10 – 15 15 – 20 20 – 25 25 – 35 Source: Diadin et al., Materials for UNICEF, 2021

33 Didovets I., Krysanova М., Hattermanna F., Lópeza M., Snizhkob S., Schmied H. Climate change impact on water availability of main river basins in Ukraine. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820302354