issue 20
february 2020
In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE COMPETITIVENESS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ARE KEY CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT DECADE
PAGE 12 SMART DUBLIN EXPLORES HOW AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA CAN HELP IMPROVE THE CITY REGION
LAURA KIRCHNER PROJECT MANAGER, CITIBEATS
PAGE 14
SUSTAINABILITY - A PATHWAY TO STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
AIDEEN O’HORA FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF SUSTAINABILITYWORKS
WELCOME
HIGHLIGHTS Dublin’s unemployment Dublin's unemployment rate fell to a 14 year low of 4.4% (SA) in Q3 2019. Dublin’s employment continued to grow strongly in Q3 with ICT and Insurance & Real Estate Activities recording all-time highs. Construction employment growth slowed to 2.6% YoY. Dublin’s property prices contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November (-0.7% YoY), the longest spell of deflation since late 2012. Dublin rents continue to rise strongly (6.7% YoY). Dublin Airport continues to set records with the first nine months of 2019 seeing 24.5 million passengers, up 5.4% on the same period in 2018. Housebuilding in Dublin recovered quickly from a period of sharp negative growth in Q2, with both completions and commencements returning to positive YoY and QoQ growth in Q3. Public transport trips in Dublin reached 243million in 2019 an increase of 8.7% on 2018. Within this the LUAS saw the fastest annual growth at 15%. The Mastercard SpendingPulse shows that despite weakness in discretionary goods, Dublin retail sales growth was solid in Q4 (3.3% YoY). Tourist spending growth continued to ease. The Dublin MARKIT PMI recovered marginally to 53.7 in Q4 2019 as Manufacturing expanded for the first time since Q4 2018 and Services output accelerated.
COVER IMAGE: RUSH, CO DUBLIN
2 //
WELCOME TO THE FEBRUARY 2020 ISSUE OF THE DUBLIN ECONOMIC MONITOR
W
elcome to the first issue of the Dublin Economic Monitor of the new decade! The Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EYDKM Economic Advisory Services and IHS MARKIT deliver the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending patterns. The SpendingPulse is derived from anonymised and aggregated card transaction data as well as other means of payments such as cash and cheques. This data helps the city develop new insights on the spending patterns of Dubliners and tourists, as well as comparing the Dublin City Council
South Dublin County Council
Capital's performance to the whole of Ireland (see centrefold supplement). The special articles this quarter focus on some of the major challenges and opportunities for the next decade. The first, from Laura Kirchner at Citibeats, highlights how social media can be used to measure sentiment towards a variety of issues in an innovative way. The second article is written by Aideen O’Hora, Director of Sustainability Works, and it looks at how corporates are going to have to adapt if sustainability is to be achieved, a theme highlighted at the recent annual World Economic Forum. We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor resources online at dublineconomy.ie. You can follow us on twitter @DCCEconDev. The next release will be published in May 2020. Fingal County Council
Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council
This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.
ECONOMY
GLOBAL ECONOMY
NATIONAL ECONOMY
The OECD’s most recently published forecasts indicate that global GDP growth will be 2.9% in 2019 – its lowest annual rate since the financial crisis. Ongoing trade conflicts, weak business investment and continuing political uncertainty have also seen growth forecasts revised downwards to 2.9% and 3.0% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, raising the risk of long-term stagnation.
Ireland’s economic bull-run continued in Q3 2019, as the economy expanded by 5.0% YoY compared with Q3 2018. This followed on from the European Commission’s forecasts that Ireland’s GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2019, the highest in the EU. Monthly unemployment, at 4.8%, remains at its lowest level since February 2007. YoY wage growth of 3.4% in Q3 2019, coupled with strong employment growth of 2.4% and inflation of 1.3% in the year to December, continued to increase real incomes and boost the domestic economy. This was reflected in November’s YoY retail sales growth of 1.9% (excluding motor trades), with consumer sentiment improving for the second successive month in December, as the near-term threat of a ‘crash out’ Brexit diminished.
global gdp growth, 2016 - 2019 4.6 4.2
3.8
corporation tax receipts, ireland, 2013 – 2019
3.4
12
24%
10
20%
8
16%
6
12%
4
8%
2
4%
3.0
% CHANGES, QUARTERLY
Jul-19
Apr-19
Jan-19
Oct-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
Jan-18
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Oct-16
Jan-17
Jul-16
Apr-16
2.2
Jan-16
2.6
YEAR-ON-YEAR
source: oecd global economic outlook, nov 2019
0
UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The UK economy contracted 0.3% MoM in November 2019, thereby reducing YoY growth to 0.6%, its lowest since June 2012. According to the British Retail Consortium, the value of retail sales declined 0.1% in 2019, marking the worst annual performance since data was first gathered in 1995. Meanwhile manufacturing output fell at its fastest rate since 2012, as a lethargic global economy weakened demand, and businesses further reduced stocks of goods built up in fear of a no-deal Brexit. The Conservative Party’s decisive majority in December’s general election is likely to galvanise business sentiment by offering a more predictable political landscape and greater Brexit clarity – in the short-term, at least. The EY ITEM Club predicts the UK economy will grow 1.2% in 2020, while the UK Services Business Activity Index reported that business expectations within the services sector were at their highest levels since September 2018 after the vote.
global
3.6
2019 %f 2.9
2014
2015
2016
% TOTAL EXCHEQUER TAX RECEIPTS (RHS)
2017
2018
2019
0%
CORPORATION TAX RECEIPTS (€BN)
source: Department of finance
The government ran a budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2019. However, net debt of €176bn is still very high, and there are question marks over the long-term sustainability of Ireland’s rapidly increasing corporation tax receipts which stem from a small number of large multinational companies. With a general election scheduled for 8 February 2020, it remains to be seen what approach will be taken by the future government to address these fiscal challenges.
irish macroeconomic growth forecasts 2019 %F
2020 %f
gnp
3.8%
3.5%
gdp
4.1%
3.3%
private consumption
2.7%
2.3%
2.9
public expenditure
5.5%
4.1%
7.1%
5.7%
major economies gdp growth forecasts 2018 %
2013
2020 %f
uk
1.4
1.2
1.0
investment
us
2.9
2.3
2.0
exports
5.0%
4.7%
imports
5.7%
5.4% 4.5%
euro area
1.9
1.2
1.1
germany
1.5
0.6
0.4
unemployment rate
4.8%
japan
0.8
1.0
0.6
employment
2.8%
1.8%
china
6.6
6.2
5.7
modified final domestic demand
4.1%
3.6%
india
6.8
5.8
6.2
modified total domestic demand
3.8%
3.2%
source: oecd world economic outlook, nov 2019
sources: ey economic eye forecasts. f: forecast; based on an orderly Brexit
// 3
DUBLIN ECONOMY
DUBLIN’S SUCCESS HAS COME WITH CHALLENGES WHICH MUST BE ADDRESSED The success the city has enjoyed in recent years has left it now facing challenges associated with overheating Dublin’s economy has undergone significant changes in the last 10-years. As we enter this new decade, it is an opportune time to reflect on the key strengths and weaknesses of the local and national economy over the past 10 years. The Dublin of Q1 2010 was a much different city to the one we have today: An unemployment rate of 11.6% which subsequently peaked at 13.7% in Q1 2012; A workforce made up of 574,100 people; A total of 45.6 million public transport trips and; 4.7 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport (Q2 2012). Today the city boasts unemployment of 4.4% (-9.3pp since Q1 2010), a 718,300 strong workforce (+25.1%), 62.6 million public passenger trips (+34.4%) and 8.3 million passengers through Dublin Airport (+76.6%). To focus on such strong headline numbers, however, does not provide the full picture of the changes recorded in Dublin over this
4 //
period. Compared to early 2010, when the key challenges were growth, debt and unemployment, Dublin is now faced with the challenges associated with overheating – a direct reflection of the strong economic performance recorded in the latter half of the last decade. With the strengthening labour market, on the upside, and the issues in the housing market, on the downside, Dublin now finds itself entering this decade with the challenge of competitiveness very much at the forefront. While Dublin ranks well amongst its peers in terms of traditional competitiveness measures – productivity and output etc. – there has been a significant move in recent years to broaden the factors included in a city's competitiveness, with greater emphasis on aspects associated with quality and cost of living. In this respect, the economic success that Dublin has enjoyed in the last five years has resulted in competitiveness challenges that may take some time to resolve. On the labour side, as the market enters full employment, the number one issue facing businesses – both SMEs and large IDA-backed firms – is their ability to attract and retain talent. And the issues on the housing side of the market
DUBLIN ECONOMY
are creating pressure points both in terms of affordability for international investment and foreign talent. There are certain factors of the local economy that will need to be addressed in order to improve Dublin’s competitiveness. Infrastructure, and in particular road and public transport infrastructure, has emerged be one of the top priorities. TomTom data for 2019 shows that Dublin is now ranked 17th amongst 416 cities for congestion and is the 6th most congested city in Europe, for the second year in a row. Overall congestion levels in the city stand at 48%, up 3% on 2018. The strengthening workforce and housing affordability in the city are undoubtedly adding to the pressures on road infrastructure. However, improvements in public transport, and greater environmental awareness, is feeding the strong upward momentum in the use of public transport. Dublin recorded an increase of 19.5 million passenger trips on public transport in 2019, a rise of 8.7% YoY. In this context, priority must be on the delivery of further improvements with investment in projects such as MetroLink and BusConnect. Housing too is playing an important part in Dublin’s competitiveness as a leading European and global city. Following almost seven consecutive years of strong inflation, house prices in Dublin finally began to show signs of moderation in late 2019 – perhaps more a reflection of affordability rather than a return to a well-functioning market. Rents are another pressure point in the market with little to no sign of a let-up. Policies to address housing supply in the city will need to be multifold. Improving supply, and thus affordability, in the city should go some way to reducing commuting times and will help to improve the quality and cost of living in the city for residents and expatriates.
The city currently ranks 72 for expatriates in the InterNations 2019 world rankings. A significant drag on Dublin’s ranking last year came in the form of housing availability and affordability with the city ranked 82nd out of 82 cities in the finance and housing subcategory. According to the survey, expats are especially dissatisfied with the affordability of housing (88% negative response versus 44% global average) and with sourcing a place to live (86% reporting difficulty versus 32% global average). A recent study found that only 8% of tenants in Dublin’s Docklands are Irish with 52% classed as European and 32% as ‘international’. In that context, there is a growing importance to address the competitiveness challenges associated with housing, infrastructure and costs if the city is to continue to attract international talent, in high-skilled sectors, such as IT, especially. From overcoming the challenges of one of the worst economic crises in years to becoming one of the fastest-growing cities in one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, failure to address these issues will limit Dublin’s ability to compete – for investment and talent – into the next decade. There are no quick fixes, however, especially in terms of housing supply. The recent World Economic Forum highlighted that the responsibility for achieving sustainable growth and of attracting investment and talent should lie not only with governments but with all stakeholders – corporates and citizens alike. The form of this relationship may take time to evolve, but a unified approach amongst all stakeholders will help form the basis of a sustainable, competitive city, in which a business’s ability to thrive is matched by its citizens ability to work and live affordably. SOURCE (1) https://www.internations.org/expat-insider/2019/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-expats-39894 (2) https://www.owenreilly.ie/media
// 5
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Dublin Max 13.7%
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%
Dublin
Q3 19
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
Q3 12
0%
Q1 12
2%
Q3 11
The level of employment in Dublin continued to grow in Q3 2019, climbing to 718,300, the highest number of people employed on record (+3.1% YoY). This constitutes an additional 2,900 people to the workforce in Q3. Dublin’s labour market continues to edge closer to full employment with the Q3 2019 Dublin unemployment rate of 4.4% now at its lowest level since Q1 2005 (-0.7 percentage points YoY).
National Max 16%
16%
Q1 11
source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
18%
Q3 10
dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q3 '19 4.4% -0.7 718 +21.8
dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa)
Q1 10
dublin unemployment rate at lowest level since 2005
National
source: cso lfs. dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
employment growth in financial services rises by 18.9% yoy services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q3 ' 19 628.0 22.8 82.1 0.9
source: cso lfs. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: this series has been re-calibrated since the last issue
Growth in employment in Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Activities continued on an upward trajectory in Q3 2019 with a YoY increase of 18.9%. Close to 65,000 people are now employed in the sector, the highest level on record. Information and Communication also recorded its highest level of employment in Q3 2019 at 71,700 (+8.3% YoY). On the contrary, employment growth in Construction appears to have slowed in Q3 2019 with YoY growth down to 2.6%.
6 //
employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 800
Max: 710,060
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Q3 10
Q3 11
Q3 12
Q3 13
Private Sector Services
Q3 14
Q3 15
Public sector
Q3 16
Q3 17
Industry
source: cso. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding
Q3 18
Q3 19
Construction
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS growth in house prices falls for fourth consecutive month nov ' 19 property price index dublin 106.2 -0.7 year on year % change property price index national excl dublin 103.6 +3.6 year on year % change source: cso.
120 Dublin Max 107.7
110 100 90 80 70
average dublin rents continue on strong upward trajectory q3 ' 19 1,762 +110
60
Dublin
Nov 19
Nov 18
May 19
Nov 17
May 18
May 17
Nov 16
Nov 15
May 16
Nov 14
May 15
May 14
Nov 13
Nov 12
May 13
Nov 11
May 12
40
Nov 10
50
May 11
Dublin property price inflation has recorded four consecutive months of YoY decline between August and November 2019. This is the longest spell of deflation in house prices since late 2012 and marks a considerable stabilisation in the housing market after several years of strong upward momentum. At a national level, while prices continue to trend upwards, the rate of growth is greatly subdued (+3.6% YoY, Nov 2019) compared to the double-digit rates recorded just over 12 months ago.
National excl. Dublin
source: cso.
residential rents € €1,850 Dublin Max: €1,762
€1,750 €1,650 €1,550 €1,450 €1,350 €1,250 €1,150 €1,050 €950 €850 €750
Dublin
Greater Dublin Area (excl. Dublin)
Q3 19
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
Q3 12
€550
Q1 12
€650 Q3 11
While the rate of rental price inflation continues to taper, average Dublin rents rose to their highest level in Q3 2019 and now stand at €1,762 (+6.7% YoY). Standardised average monthly rents are now in excess of €1000 in Dublin, the GDA (incl. Louth), Galway and Cork. In the GDA (excl. Dublin), rents stood at €1,247 in Q3 (+9% YoY) while the national growth rate, beyond Dublin and the GDA, registered double digits for the first time since Q2 2016 (+10.5% YoY).
Q1 11
source: rtb.
Q3 10
dublin avg residential rent € per month year on year change €
residential property price index (2005 = 100)
Outside GDA
source: rtb. note: gda (ex dublin) is kildare, meath and wicklow.
commencements return to positive growth in q3 2019
dublin housing commencements & completions 2,800 Commencements Max: 2,648
2,000
1,600 1,200
800
Completions
Q3 19
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
0
Q1 13
400
Q3 12
The Dublin housing market expanded in Q3 2019, with the number of commencements continuing to exceed completions. Recovering quickly from a period of sharp negative growth in Q2, both completions and commencements returned to positive YoY and QoQ growth. 1,892 houses were completed in Q3 2019, meaning 5,184 homes were added to the stock in the first nine months of 2019 .
Completions Max: 1,887
Q1 12
source: dhplg, cso note: house commencement data is not seasonally adjusted
2,400
Q3 11
q3 ' 19 2,648 564 1,892 57
Q1 11
total house commencements year on year change total house completions year on year change
Commencements
source: dhplg.
// 7
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS stagnation in dublin office rent growth continues into q4 2019
130
City Centre Max = 118.2 South Suburbs Max = 118
120 110 100 90 80 70 60
City Centre
Q4 19
Q2 19
Q4 18
Q2 18
Q4 17
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
Q2 12
Q4 11
Q2 11
Q4 10
40
Q2 10
50
Q4 09
Office rents in Dublin’s City Centre have now recorded a fifth consecutive quarter of zero annual change. The index of City Centre office rents has remained unchanged at 118.2 for the past two years with the last increase occurring in Q4 2017. Following a four-point increase in the index for Dublin’s South Suburbs in Q2 2019, rents have remained stable at 118 points, representing a 3.5% increase on Q2 2018 rents.
Q2 09
source: CBRE
Q4 08
city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change
q4 '19 118.2 0.0 118.0 +3.5
dublin office rents index (2006 = 100)
South Suburbs
source: cbre.
office vacancy in dublin 2/4 falls to lowest level on record
dublin office space vacancy rates % 30% Dublin Suburbs Max = 25%
vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points
q4 '19 3.9 -0.4 6.6 -0.1
Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%
25%
20%
15%
source: cbre.
19.5 million additional trips on Dublin's public transport in 2019 public transport million trips (sa) year on year change million trips (sa)
q4 '19 62.6 +5.0
10%
Dublin 2/4
Q4 19
Q2 19
Q4 18
Q2 18
Q4 17
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
Q2 12
Q4 11
Q2 11
Q4 10
Q2 10
0%
Q4 09
5%
Q2 09
Office vacancy in Dublin 2/4 district continued a downward trend in Q4 2019 with vacancy falling to 3.9% from 4.3% at the end of 2018. This represents the lowest vacancy of office space in the district in over 10 years. Office vacancy rates in Dublin’s suburbs fell marginally YoY in Q4 2019 (-0.1pp) to stand at 6.6%. During 2019 Dublin’s suburbs accounted for 22% of overall office take-up in the capital with the majority located in the south suburbs (71%) followed by west suburbs (18%).
Dublin Suburbs
source: cbre.
public transport million trips (sa) 70 60 50
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
A total of 243.4 million public transport trips took place in Dublin in 2019. This represents an increase of 19.5 million journeys (+8.7%) on 2018. Passenger trips on all four modes of public transport rose, with the greatest boost on the Luas with an annual increase of 15%. Bus Éireann also recorded double-digit growth in passenger numbers (+12%) while trips on Dublin City Bus and Irish Rail rose by 7.8% and 4% respectively.
40 30 20 10 0
Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Bus Éireann
Dublin City Bus
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm
8 //
Irish Rail
Luas
Fe b r u a r y 2 0 2 0
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q4 2019*
+3.3%
+3.7%
OVERALL SALES
+3.0% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
-0.7% DISCRETIONARY
+5.6% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+8.7% ECOMMERCE
+2.0% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| February 2020
DESPITE EASING RETAIL SALES GROWTH REMAINS SOLID IN DUBLIN TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
126
130
+3.3% YoY
125 120
121
+2.8% YoY
115 110 105
DUBLIN
Retail spending in the Dublin economy continues to register strong growth with a 3.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q4 2019. Throughout 2019, the annual growth in retail spend in Dublin has averaged +4.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of +5.6% in 2018. Notwithstanding that, retail spending growth in Dublin exceeded that at a National level (incl. Dublin) in Q4 2019 as has been the case since Q1 2017. On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2019. This marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in recent quarters following QoQ growth of 2.3% and 0.6% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. Quarterly growth has proven to be volatile in both Dublin and Nationally, and so it is difficult to point to a downward trend at this stage.
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Retail sales growth rates eased across Ireland in Q4 2019 with sales in Dublin up 3.3% YoY. However this was partially driven by difficult comparisons with Q4 2018 when sales surged. While the growth rates in tourist spending also appear more modest, when taken in the context of strong growth in 2018, the growth in Q4 was solid. While the US economy remains on a solid footing, it is reasonable to expect more positive tourist spending as we enter 2020. Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+3.3%
126.1
+0.5%
YoY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QoQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q4 2019
100 = Q1 2014
Q4 2019
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
SALES OF DISCRETIONARY GOODS CONTRACT
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
123.7
130
-0.7% YoY
125 120 115
115.9
110
-1.3% YoY
105 100
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
95
IRELAND
| February 2020
The final quarter of 2019 marked the first quarter in which negative YoY growth was recorded in retail spend on Discretionary goods in both Dublin (-0.7%) and Nationally (-1.3%). However, this was the only component of total sales to register negative annual growth in the quarter. Household goods sales, which are generally correlated with consumer sentiment, grew by 5.6% YoY in Q4 2019 in Dublin. Nationally the rate of growth was more subdued at 1.4% YoY. Online sales continue to register strong positive growth amongst Dublin (+8.7% YoY) and National (+4.3% YoY) consumers.
DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
220
+8.7% YoY
200
124.7
130
194.9
210
+3.0% YoY
125
190 120
180 170
177.2
160
+4.3% YoY
150 140 130
115
118.5 +3.8% YoY
110 105
120 110
100
100
IRELAND
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
149.9 +2.0% YoY
160
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95 Q1 14
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
180
161.5 +5.6% YoY
170 160
150
150
140
140 130
135.5
120
+0.8% YoY
110
147.2
130
+1.4% YoY
120
IRELAND
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
90 Q3 14
90 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
Q1 14
110
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
3
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| February 2020
GROWTH IN TOURISM SPENDING EASED FOLLOWING STRONG GROWTH IN Q4 2018 Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin was subdued in the final quarter of 2019, registering YoY growth of 3.7%*. This follows growth of 8% and 6.5% in Q2 and Q3 respectively and double-digit growth throughout 2018. The average annual growth rate in 2019 was 7.9% compared to 13.4% in 2018. The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China has been declining in recent quarters. In the Chinese market tourism spend registered 19.1% YoY growth in Q4 2018 compared to 4.1% in the final quarter of 2019, while the rate of growth in the US market has been declining since Q2 2018 (16.1% YoY) and now stands at 12.4%. The UK market continues to struggle amid Brexit fears and exchange rate volatility. Spending in this market registered -0.4% YoY growth in Q4 2019 and is the third consecutive quarter of decline.
A similar narrative emerges at a National level with 4% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2019 following a period of double-digit growth throughout 2018. Positive annual growth in the UK market may indicate that UK tourists are finding better value for money in locations outside of Dublin. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US market is the main driver of growth nationally, with annual spend up 9.9%. Recently published data from the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation identified that tourism spend across Ireland in 2019, estimated at €9.3 million, was down 1% on 2018. This marked the first decline in the value of tourist spending in eight years. Brexit, increased business costs and a return to the 13.5% VAT rate were cited as reasons for the decline.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2019 (SA) OVERALL
+4.0% +3.7%
+0.4% -0.4%
+9.9% +12.4%
+0.4% +1.9%
-0.2% +3.7%
+7.6% +4.1%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
220
240
210
230 220
200
210
173.8
190
180.8
200
180
190
170
180
160
170
150
160
140
150 140
130
130
120
120
110
4
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
Q1 2014 = 100
100
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
110 All
UK
USA
Germany
France
China
100
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
China
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin airport passengers at 7 year high in q3 2019
8,500
q3 '19 8,251 331
source: cso.
Max: 8.25 million
8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000
Q3 19
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
4,000
Q1 13
4,500
Q3 12
Passenger numbers through Dublin Airport continue to set new records with 8.25 million people (+4.2% YoY) passing through the airport in the third quarter of 2019. In the first three quarters of the year a total of 24.5 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport, up 5.4% on the same period in 2018 (23.3 million).
Q1 12
total passengers '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa)
source: cso.
close to 1,500 hotel rooms added to dublin market in 2019 hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, july 2013=100)
year on year change %
DEC '19 81.8% -1.2 114.5 6.7%
7 6 5 4 3 2
Total Tonnage
Imports
Q3 19
Exports
source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) €150
115
Maximum: €146
€140
110
€130
105 €120
source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
100 €110
95
Dec 19
Nov 19
Oct 19
Sep 19
Jul 19
Aug 19
Jun 19
Apr 19
Average Daily Rate €
May 19
Mar 19
Jan 19
Feb 19
Dec 18
Nov 18
Oct 18
Sep 18
Aug 18
Jul 18
Jun 18
Apr 18
May 18
Mar 18
€90
Feb 18
€100
Jan 18
The Average Daily Rate (ADR) of hotel rooms in Dublin has been following a downward trend since mid-2018. The ARD stood at €137 in December 2019 having peaked at €146 in August 2018. This decline is linked to several factors including – growing supply, softening demand and the headwind created by a higher VAT rate on hospitality. In 2019, 1,461 new hotel rooms were added to the Dublin market. This compares to an additional 829 rooms added to the market in the previous 12 months.
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
0
Q4 13
1 Q3 13
The volatility in throughput at Dublin Port has persisted into Q3 2019 with two consecutive quarters of QoQ decline. The last time a similar trend was identified in the data was in early 2012. Q3 2019 also represents the first YoY decline in throughput (-1.6%) at the Port since Q2 2012. This decline is driven by an annual reduction in both export and import activity at the Port, -1.7% and -1.4% YoY respectively.
8
Q2 13
source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: imports and exports may not add to total throughput due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.
Max: 9.9 million tonnes
9
Q1 13
q3 ' 19 3.74 -0.05 5.74 -0.10
10
Q4 12
dublin port exports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa) dublin port imports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa)
dublin port tonnage million tonnes (sa)
Q3 12
throughput at dublin port posts first yoy decline since q2 2012
90
Index of Supply
source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
// 9
DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI output growth picks up in q4
overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65
dublin
national excl. dublin
60
q3 2019
53.7
49.6
55
year on year change
-4.1 0.7
-5.4 -2.4
50
overall ihs markit pmi
quarter on quarter change
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
45
marginal expansion in new orders
40 35 30
q3 2019
51.2
50.5
55
year on year change
-6.9 -0.6
-4.5 -1.4
Q4 19
Q4 18
Q4 17
Q4 16
Q4 15
Q4 14
Q4 13
45 40 35 30
slowest rise in employment in current cycle
Q4 19
Q4 18
Q4 17
Q4 16
Q4 15
Q4 14
Q4 13
Q4 12
Q4 11
Q4 10
Q4 09
Q4 08
Q4 07
Q4 06
Q4 05
Q4 04
Q4 03
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q4 02
25
Dublin
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65
dublin
national excl. dublin
60
q3 2019
50.3
51.5
55
year on year change
-4.7 -1.9
-3 -1.3
50
quarter on quarter change
Q4 12
50
Q4 01
Although new orders continued to rise in Q4, the rate of growth was marginal and softened to the weakest since Q3 2012. The rate of expansion in new business has now slowed in three successive quarters. The Rest of Ireland also recorded a slowdown in new order growth, with the increase in Dublin outpacing that outside the capital.
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
65 60
employment growth
Q4 11
Q4 10
Q4 09
Q4 07
Q4 06
Q4 05
Q4 04
Q4 08
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi new orders (sa)
national excl. dublin
quarter on quarter change
Q4 03
Dublin
dublin
new orders
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q4 02
25
Q4 01
The latest Dublin PMI data pointed to a slightly faster expansion of business activity in the final quarter of the year compared with Q3, consistent with output increasing at a solid pace overall. This contrasted with a reduction in output across the Rest of Ireland. The improved performance of Dublin was driven by all three monitored sectors. Services posted the fastest expansion, while construction activity registered a solid rise despite the rate of growth softening at the end of the year. Manufacturing returned to growth in Q4, following three consecutive quarters of decline.
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
45 40 35 30
Dublin
about The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com
National excl. Dublin
Q4 19
Q4 18
Q4 17
Q4 16
Q4 15
Q4 14
Q4 13
Q4 12
Q4 11
Q4 10
Q4 09
Q4 08
Q4 07
Q4 06
Q4 05
Q4 04
Q4 03
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q4 02
25
Q4 01
As has been the case for the past seven years, Dublin companies continued to increase their staffing levels in the final quarter of 2019. That said, the rate of job creation was marginal and was at its slowest in the current cycle of rising employment. The increase in staffing levels in Dublin was slower than that seen across the Rest of Ireland, where the rate of job creation also softened but to a lesser extent.
DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
DUBLIN 8TH IN THE WORLD FOR CAREER OPPORTUNITIES AND WORK-LIFE BALANCE Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). At the end of 2019 the ECA International’s annual Cost of Living Survey was published and showed that the cost of living in many European cities has fallen on foot of a weakened euro, relative to the dollar, and slower economic growth. While Central London has fallen out of the top 100, Dublin falls to 87th having dropped ten places. This leaves Ireland’s capital ahead of all UK cities included in the ranking – Central London (140th), Edinburgh (156th) and Manchester (162nd). The survey, which compares a basket of like-for-like consumer goods and services placed Dublin 13th in the top 20 most expensive European cities for expatriates. The issue of affordability in Dublin is also drawn out in InterNations Expat City
ranking 2019 finding that Dublin comes last in the world (82 cities) in the Finance and Housing subcategory. The situation in the housing market is having a particularly negative impact on the ranking with 88% of respondents rating the affordability of housing negatively, compared to the global average of 44%. Some 86% of expats also reported difficulty in finding a place to live versus 32% globally. Dublin also ranks badly in the subcategories for Local Cost of Living (76th) and the Quality of Urban Living (71st). Dublin receives the best result in the Urban Work Life sub category (8th) with 80% of respondents happy with job security, and the city ranks 4th in the world for career opportunities behind only Boston, San Francisco and Prague. Dublin has ranked 42nd out of 100 international cities in the Resonance World’s Best Cities 2020 Index. The index, which is based on six core categories of place, product, people, prosperity, programming
and promotion, ranked London, New York and Paris in the top three respectively. Dublin’s position in the Index was boosted by its weighting in the prosperity (wealth, prosperity and innovation) and programming (culture, nightlife) categories. The Legatum Institute’s annual global Prosperity Index analyses the performance of 167 nations across 65 policy-focused elements. The 2019 Index sees Ireland’s position unchanged from 2018 in 12th. The county ranks third strongest for economic quality, the most improved category since 2009. Amongst the 12 categories considered Ireland is ranked weakest for its investment environment (23rd) and market access and infrastructure (23rd). Ireland’s position in the 2019 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking has improved considerably in the past year. The country now ranks seventh in the world. Improved business conditions and a strong economy were noted as the key drivers for the improvement.
D U B L I N ' S L AT E S T I N T E R N AT I O N A L R A N K I N G S SOURCE
BENCHMARK CRITERIA
YEAR
RANKING
CHANGE‡
▲ ▼ ▼ ▲
Mercer Quality of Living City Ranking
Environmental / socio - economic
2019
33
Mercer Cost of Living City Ranking
Cost of consumer goods and services
2019
43
European Regional Economic Growth Index
Medium-term economic growth prospects
2019
9
2019
7
2019
13**
2019
1
2019
38
▲ -
2019
35
▼
2019
5
-
2019
82
▼
2019
12
-
2019
21*
2019
37
▲ -
2020
42
-
IMD World Competitiveness Ranking 2019 ECA International Cost of Living Survey 2019 EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker Global Financial Centres Index Global Talent Competitiveness Index fDi Fintech Locations of the Future 2019/2020 InterNations Expat City ranking 2019
The Legatum Prosperity Index 2019 FT European Business School Rankings 2019 QS Best Student Cities Resonance World’s Best Cities 2020
332 competitiveness criteria related to competitiveness, digital competitiveness and talent Basket of like-for-like consumer goods and services in 475 locations Financial services considering or confirmed relocation Includes economic, legal, sustainability and competitiveness indicators Regulatory, market and business/labour landscape, external and internal openness, education and access to growth opportunities and, sustainability and lifestyle FDI performance, connectivity, cost effectiveness, economic potential, innovation & attractiveness Four topical indices derived from 25 aspects of urban like abroad – Quality of urban living, getting settled, urban work life, and finance and housing Safety and security, governance, personal freedom, investment environment, enterprise conditions, market access and infrastructure, economic quality, living conditions, health, education and natural environment Business school quality University rankings, student mix, desirability, employer activity, affordability, student view Place, people, product, prosperity, programming and promotion
*TCD. **Top 20 European cities. ‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.
// 11
COMPETITIVENESS STRATEGIES
SMART DUBLIN EXPLORES HOW AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA CAN HELP IMPROVE THE CITY REGION LAURA KIRCHNER
PROJECT MANAGER, CITIBEATS
Dublin City Council, through the Smart Dublin initiative, is collaborating with Citibeats to better understand how citizens experience the city region. Through social media analysis, local authorities can gain important insights into how citizens feel about key civic issues. Smart Dublin, an initiative of the four Dublin Local Authorities, uses innovative technologies and new ways of working to improve quality of life in the city region. Smart Dublin works collaboratively with technology providers, researchers, and other public sector bodies, to solve local challenges. But what is the best way to identify local challenges? The answer: listen to what local citizens have to say! We live in the age of information where, globally, more people have mobile phones than have access to toilet facilities. Sharing our thoughts, opinions, complaints and concerns daily, through multiple digital channels, has become common practice for huge swathes of the world’s population. When we consider the sheer scale of the information that is communicated online, the non-stop flow can appear overwhelming. While any information one might need or want is out there, sorting through this information, identifying what is relevant and discerning meaningful insights is where it gets tricky. With the help of artificial intelligence, this process has become more
12 //
and more possible. Smart Dublin has teamed up with Citibeats to explore how local authorities can tune in to what citizens are saying on social media and use this feedback to inform their work. Citibeats is a social intelligence and speech analytics platform. Using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning, Citibeats organizes unstructured data - in this case, the opinions of citizens expressed via social media, in an anonymous and aggregate manner - and uses Arifical Intelligence (AI) models to categorize and decipher the data. Data is presented via visual dashboards from which insights can be used by local governments and decision makers as action items to improve city life. Citibeats provides an important tool for local authorities, but it is important to note that these insights are indicative only of the key trends and sentiments expressed by a cohort of citizens who use social media. Local authorities employ other methods to ensure truly inclusive citizen engagement.
AI AND SOCIAL MEDIA APPLIED TO NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION AND CONSUMER PROTECTION AI and text analytics can also be applied to solve other challenges, such as natural disaster mitigation and regulation and consumer protection in the financial sector. After the devastating flood in Japan in 2018, Citibeats teamed up with NTT Data, a technology company, and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) to interpret social media activity after a natural disaster impacted three main cities in northern Japan. The machine-learning algorithms instantly interpreted online conversations to reveal the issues that were of most concern. What was discovered was that each city had different priorities. While access to healthcare was the primary concern for two of the cities, food and mobility were key in the other. By knowing where to focus resources first through this data-driven account of people’s needs in real time, government was able to allocate aid where it was needed most. Most important was the increased speed of which data was translated into action - 5,000 damaged infrastructure reports from the 2018 Japan floods were extracted 21 days earlier than it would have taken without the use of this technology. In Kenya, Citibeats played a major role in strengthening the financial services sector’s regulation. As these services became more digital so did the consumers’ methods of complaining. It was impossible to manually process, let alone address, the thousands of reports of abuse that were flooding in daily in an effective manner. Topics were identified by the Financial Sector Deepening Kenya, (FSD), as investigation-worthy such as scams and unfair charges. Citibeats’ AI was trained to recognize these events in all text-based data found online and alert regulators when red-flag patterns were detected. Not only did FSD Kenya report that the Citibeats alerts received were 80-90% relevant for investigation, but they also found that consumer complaints were flagged 45 days earlier than before the technology was put in place. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR SOCIAL GOOD Legitimate worries regarding the use of AI and technology have arisen in recent years. Stories of misuse, bias and ineffective
practices have caused concern amongst citizens and civil society organisations. But machine learning, when applied ethically and properly, can provide major opportunities for improvements and advancement. It has proven to be unequivocally faster and more efficient than humans at identifying, processing, classifying and executing certain tasks. This is immense power that, when harnessed for social good, can greatly improve society. With the Smart Dublin project, the goal is to develop a new tool that will help local authorities to better understand how citizens feel about key civic issues. These valuable insights will support decisionmakers to ensure that civic efforts and policy reflect the needs of citizens and communities. It is time to harness the power of advanced technology, AI and social media for good, and to improve quality of life for citizens and communities.
Machine learning has proven to be unequivocally faster and more efficient than humans at identifying, processing, classifying and executing certain tasks. This is immense power that, when harnessed for social good, can greatly improve society.” // 13
SPECIAL REPORT
SUSTAINABILITY - A PATHWAY TO STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
AIDEEN O’HORA FOUNDING DIRECTOR OF SUSTAINABILITYWORKS
This month, the first in a new decade, we’ve seen a step change in ambition to act on sustainability issues, such as climate change and resource efficiency This month, the first in a new decade, we have seen a step change in ambition to act on sustainability issues, such as climate change and resource efficiency. The theme at Davos this year was Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World, and with this in mind participants were asked to consider pathways to transition the global economy from “shareholder capitalism” to “stakeholder capitalism.” This is a radical shift from the long-held belief that the only responsibility a business has is to make a profit for its shareholders. Now they are being asked to re-define their purpose to create long-term value for stakeholders – customers, suppliers, employees and communities. As awareness of climate change continues to grow, companies are rapidly becoming more aware of the environmental and social impacts of their activities and are searching for ways to do things differently. Leading companies have realised that by integrating sustainable practices in their business, not only are they doing the right thing for the environment but they are also creating long-term economic and social value. A strong example of how companies are now embracing sustainability is Microsoft’s new strategy which has been heralded as
Companies are being asked to create long-term value for all stakeholders” 14 //
a game changer for corporate sustainability. Going beyond typical reactionary sustainability targets, the company has pledged to be carbon negative by 2030 and to remove all historic carbon by 2050. To achieve their commitment they will empower their entire supply chain to reduce and remove carbon, as well as applying an internal carbon price. Like most companies, the vast majority of Microsoft’s climate impact is felt in their value chain. This announcement will be felt along their supply chain, and across all locations – including Ireland. It is no longer a question of whether SMEs should invest in sustainability, but how to ensure it is embedded within their strategy so they can continue to work with large customers like Microsoft. SME’s wanting to start their sustainability journey should adopt the following four steps: 1. Assess the business’ environmental footprint; 2. Set targets to reduce impact, 3. Act to reduce impact; 4. Evidence and communicate progress to stakeholders; As we enter into the ‘decade of delivery,’ it is clear that large corporates have ambitious sustainability plans. There are huge opportunities for Irish companies who integrate sustainable practices in their business. For businesses who haven’t started to truly integrate sustainability, you are already being left behind. At SustainabilityWorks, we believe sustainability offers huge opportunities for growth and innovation. We work with businesses to develop and deliver strategies, programmes and partnerships that unlock commercial opportunities and enable positive action at scale. We make sustainability simple. We make it actionable. We make it work. www.sustainabilityworks.ie.
ECONOMIC SCORECARD
DUBLIN: ECONOMIC SCORECARD FEB 2020 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years and housing completions which cover the past 6 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.
economy ihs markit business pmi q4 2019
52
unemployment rate q3 2019
56
48
8 59
53.7
44
mastercard spendingpulse sales index q4 2019
111
10
6
12
4.4
63
3 month moving average (sa)
116
106
121
126
101
14
% (sa)
index (2014 = 100) (SA)
transport airport arrivals q3 2019
6,130
6,830
5,420
4,710
seaport cargo q3 2019
7.8 7,540
8,251
8.4
7.1
9.5
54.4
50.4 9.1
6.4
000's/quarter (SA)
public transport trips q3 2019
9.8
million tonnes/quarter (sa)
46.3
42.2
58.5
62.6
million trips/quarter (sa)
residential property average residential rents q3 2019
1,280
1,440
1,100
952
residential property price index nov 2019
1,762
65
97
106.2
55
â‚Ź/quarter
1,200
800
87
76 1,600
housing completions q3 2019
108
500
106
index 2005 = 100
1,500
1,892 units/quarter
commercial property dublin city centre office rent q4 2019
460
540
380
296
dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q4 2019
15 620
dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q4 2019
9
25
700
3.9
â‚Ź/sq.m.
%
17
14
20 10
30
21
6.2
25
%
sources: cso, pmi markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents prtb; commercial property cbre research
// 15
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