Fe b r u a r y 2 0 2 0
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q4 2019*
+3.3%
+3.7%
OVERALL SALES
+3.0% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
-0.7% DISCRETIONARY
+5.6% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+8.7% ECOMMERCE
+2.0% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| February 2020
DESPITE EASING RETAIL SALES GROWTH REMAINS SOLID IN DUBLIN TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
126
130
+3.3% YoY
125 120
121
+2.8% YoY
115 110 105
DUBLIN
Retail spending in the Dublin economy continues to register strong growth with a 3.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q4 2019. Throughout 2019, the annual growth in retail spend in Dublin has averaged +4.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of +5.6% in 2018. Notwithstanding that, retail spending growth in Dublin exceeded that at a National level (incl. Dublin) in Q4 2019 as has been the case since Q1 2017. On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2019. This marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in recent quarters following QoQ growth of 2.3% and 0.6% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. Quarterly growth has proven to be volatile in both Dublin and Nationally, and so it is difficult to point to a downward trend at this stage.
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Retail sales growth rates eased across Ireland in Q4 2019 with sales in Dublin up 3.3% YoY. However this was partially driven by difficult comparisons with Q4 2018 when sales surged. While the growth rates in tourist spending also appear more modest, when taken in the context of strong growth in 2018, the growth in Q4 was solid. While the US economy remains on a solid footing, it is reasonable to expect more positive tourist spending as we enter 2020. Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+3.3%
126.1
+0.5%
YoY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QoQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q4 2019
100 = Q1 2014
Q4 2019
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
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*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
SALES OF DISCRETIONARY GOODS CONTRACT
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
123.7
130
-0.7% YoY
125 120 115
115.9
110
-1.3% YoY
105 100
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
95
IRELAND
| February 2020
The final quarter of 2019 marked the first quarter in which negative YoY growth was recorded in retail spend on Discretionary goods in both Dublin (-0.7%) and Nationally (-1.3%). However, this was the only component of total sales to register negative annual growth in the quarter. Household goods sales, which are generally correlated with consumer sentiment, grew by 5.6% YoY in Q4 2019 in Dublin. Nationally the rate of growth was more subdued at 1.4% YoY. Online sales continue to register strong positive growth amongst Dublin (+8.7% YoY) and National (+4.3% YoY) consumers.
DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
220
+8.7% YoY
200
124.7
130
194.9
210
+3.0% YoY
125
190 120
180 170
177.2
160
+4.3% YoY
150 140 130
115
118.5 +3.8% YoY
110 105
120 110
100
100
IRELAND
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
149.9 +2.0% YoY
160
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 170
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95 Q1 14
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
180
161.5 +5.6% YoY
170 160
150
150
140
140 130
135.5
120
+0.8% YoY
110
147.2
130
+1.4% YoY
120
IRELAND
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q4 19
Q3 19
Q2 19
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
90 Q3 14
90 Q2 14
100
Q1 14
100
Q1 14
110
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
3
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| February 2020
GROWTH IN TOURISM SPENDING EASED FOLLOWING STRONG GROWTH IN Q4 2018 Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin was subdued in the final quarter of 2019, registering YoY growth of 3.7%*. This follows growth of 8% and 6.5% in Q2 and Q3 respectively and double-digit growth throughout 2018. The average annual growth rate in 2019 was 7.9% compared to 13.4% in 2018. The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China has been declining in recent quarters. In the Chinese market tourism spend registered 19.1% YoY growth in Q4 2018 compared to 4.1% in the final quarter of 2019, while the rate of growth in the US market has been declining since Q2 2018 (16.1% YoY) and now stands at 12.4%. The UK market continues to struggle amid Brexit fears and exchange rate volatility. Spending in this market registered -0.4% YoY growth in Q4 2019 and is the third consecutive quarter of decline.
A similar narrative emerges at a National level with 4% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2019 following a period of double-digit growth throughout 2018. Positive annual growth in the UK market may indicate that UK tourists are finding better value for money in locations outside of Dublin. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US market is the main driver of growth nationally, with annual spend up 9.9%. Recently published data from the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation identified that tourism spend across Ireland in 2019, estimated at €9.3 million, was down 1% on 2018. This marked the first decline in the value of tourist spending in eight years. Brexit, increased business costs and a return to the 13.5% VAT rate were cited as reasons for the decline.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2019 (SA) OVERALL
+4.0% +3.7%
+0.4% -0.4%
+9.9% +12.4%
+0.4% +1.9%
-0.2% +3.7%
+7.6% +4.1%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA) Q1 2014 = 100
220
240
210
230 220
200
210
173.8
190
180.8
200
180
190
170
180
160
170
150
160
140
150 140
130
130
120
120
110
4
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
Q1 2014 = 100
100
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
110 All
UK
USA
Germany
France
China
100
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
China
*All values are Seasonally Adjusted by EY-DKM