LAND USE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BY THE CLUE-S SPATIOTEMPORAL MODEL

The modeling of land use changes in Mouzaki used cartographic material such as land use maps, aerial photographs and satellite images. This material was first processed with GIS technology in order to study the evolution of the landscape and subsequently with the CLUE-S spatiotemporal model which outlined the future landscape in the reference year 2040. Three socio-economic scenarios were used:

(a) business-as-usual (BAU), (b) rapid economic development (RED), and (c) ecological land protection (ELP) (Mamanis et al. 2021). At the same time, demographic and socio-economic data were collected. A digitized photomosaic of aerial photographs (1960), as well as recent satellite images (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019), diagrams and maps of landscape transformation (1960-2020) were also produced.

The analysis showed that the changes of the land cover/ land use units (1960-2020) are mainly located in the mountainous part (Central and Southeast Mouzaki). The most important change is the expansion of woody vegetation and the densification of forests, especially in the southern and eastern parts, at the expense of open grasslands and agricultural crops (Nasiakou 2022). Silvopastoral systems expanded, while silvoarable systems remained limited throughout the studied period. Demographic changes and the abandonment of land and traditional practices (agroforestry) were identified as the main causes of landscape change.

In relation to the predicted changes in the landscape of the Municipality of Mouzaki, the results from the CLUE-S model appear to be that silvoarable land expands in all three scenarios. The scenario that favors it the most is that of rapid economic development (Nasiakou 2022). In contrast, upland silvopastoral systems appear to remain stable, with only a small increase under the business-as-usual scenario.

From the spatial analysis of land use changes for 2040 it emerged that:

Silvoarable land increases significantly (+57%) under the rapid economic development scenario.

These changes are found in all semi-mountainous localities with abandoned silvoarable systems (LCs of Vatsounia, Drakotrypa, Porpi) (Figure 2).

An appearance of new silvoarable systems in lowland areas bordering higher elevations (LCs of Mavromati, Lazarina, Magoula, Fanari).

No changes are expected to the silvopastoral systems under the three scenarios. In any case, the traditional silvopastoral systems should be revitalized with cultivation and addition of trees.