We need to watch our cold carbon stores if we develop the north

We need to watch our cold carbon stores if we develop the north or Preventive is easier than finding a cure Nigel Roulet McGill University (nigel.roulet@mcgill.ca)

My argument for a solution for a warming world…

• Factual framework

• 10% (or more) of annual emissions of enhanced GHGs are due to land use change, and prior to 1945 land-use change accounted for 50% of emissions of GHGs;25% of enhanced GHGs in the atmosphere are from land-use change • Canada, at present, appears to be an insignificant source of GHGs due to land-use change • Canada, has one of the largest, if not the largest, reserves of carbon stored in plants and very high density soil deposits (peat) – not renewable as in other ecosystem services because its 99% dead carbon

• Aspiration for a Canadian future

• Canada has expressed a desire to reduce its GHGs significantly (1.5 to 2.0oC target!) – Herculean effort if this is to be done in the necessary time frame • Several provinces and the federal government have expressed desires to develop the “north” – mineral, hydroelectric reservoirs, etc., but to develop it sustainably

• Proposition

• Canada will not be able to meet its desired GHG goals and develop the north unless we protect the high density carbon deposits and take a substantially different approach to how we developed the “south” • Canada has a moral obligation to maintain its terrestrial carbon pools

What informs this thinking ?

• Thirty-five years of thinking about the interactions among climate, hydrology and ecosystem processes

• Inherently non-linear, series of weak to strong feedbacks, lots of delays because of varying turnover times, many poorly defined exogenous variables • Irreducible uncertainty – deal with it • Makes prediction over climate times scales impossible - projections and scenarios of the future

•

Policy side

• 15+ years of involvement with IPCC (AR2 to AR4) • Ontario Far North Science Advisory Panel and various other panels • Adapting our models and measurement programs to questions of restoration and novel peatland ecosystems

• Need strategies and policies that are adaptive and maximize resilience, and recognize our ignorance –i.e. need to become learning organizations

From Spencer Wearts’ “The Discovery of Global Warming” HUP, 2008 “… C.D. Keeling published his data on changes in the level of CO2. His measurements were so precise that from the outset, they showed a seasonal "breathing" of the planet: plants in the northern hemisphere took up carbon from the atmosphere in spring and summer, and returned it to the air when dead leaves and grass rotted away in autumn and winter. One could even use Keeling's data to figure how many tons of carbon cycled through the plants each season.” https://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Global carbon budget

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/

The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon sinks on land and in the ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

IPCC 2015 SPM

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average) 33.0±1.6 GtCO2/yr

3.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr

91% 16.0 ±0.4 GtCO /yr 2 44%

9%

+

9.5±2.9

GtCO2/yr 29%

Calculated as the residual of all other flux components

26% 10.9±1.8 GtCO2/yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Sources of CO2 from land-use change Annual fluxes

Cumulative flux

The data is from Richard Houghton’s work http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/landuse/houghton/houghton.html but was replotted into nicer graphs and presented on http://petrolog.typepad.com/climate_change/2010/01/cumulative-emissions-of-co2.html

Where does Canada’s GHG emissions come from?

Notice that there are no net emissions from landuse change

2000-2009 C global C cycle Anthropogenic C Preindustrial C

20 – 30 (4%) 250 – 300 (~15%)

400 – 500 (~35%)

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UmaZHBB0Klc

The storage of carbon in the north

(x 0.1 to convert to kg/m3)

http://www.grida.no/publications/rr/natural-fix/page/3724.aspx

Global terrestrial net primary production

(g/m2/yr)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/science/figures/FIGURE6.htm

Tropical forest C Stocks kg/m2

20+

Ground surface

Boreal forest

Peatlands

NPP kg/m2/yr

0.8 – 1.0

1 10+

High uptake and short residence time

http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/carbon3.html

10+ 1

10 – 20+

Lower uptake and longer residence time

0.4 – 0.5

0.2 – 0.5 0.2 – 0.4

0.05 – 0.1

100 - 500+

Small uptake and very long residence time

What are peatlands?

Things get preserved in peatlands

http://www.borealbirds.org/announcements/carbon-world-forgot

Total amount of carbon stored in Canada peatlands 147 Gt (147 x 1015 g) or 59% 0f organic C in Canadian soils

http://geoscan.ess.nrcan.gc.ca/images/geoscan/of6561_2.jpg

Peatlands of Canada; Tarnocai, C; Kettles, I M; Lacelle, B. Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 6561, 2011, ; 1 CD-ROM, doi:10.4095/288786

“Historic Paris Agreement on Climate Change “ • “195 Nations Set Path” • “The universal agreement’s main aim is to keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

• “The 1.5 degree Celsius limit is a significantly safer defense line against the worst impacts of a changing climate.”

• In the actual wording of the agreement (https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf) refers to the need to hold total emissions to less than 40 Gt CO2-eq/yr by 2030 rather than our current trajectory to 55 Gt CO2-eq/yr (a ~37% decrease in emissions)

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/finale-cop21/

Two issues of concern about the future of the peatland carbon stocks …

1. The response of peatlands to climate change: things we need to prepare for, attempt to understand but cannot do anything about – along to the ride but influence adaptation • • • •

Current sink/source relation Sensitivity of the carbon stored in peatlands to climate change Relationship between peatlands and permafrost Fire and peatlands

2. Land-use change and peatlands: we control this!

• Conversion of the existing stores of atmospheric carbon in peat into active CO2 and CH4

Mer Bleue Peatland Landsat-TM

28 km2

An oligotrophic raised bog Less shrubs

1998-2014

-56 ± 36 g C m-2 yr-1

300 m Found all peatlands to be sinks: ~30 to 50 g C m-2 yr-1

IKONOS Image

Area of peatlands in Canada: 1.6 x 1012 m2 (courtesy of F. Ahern) National Scale sink ~50 Mt C or 180 Mt CO2 (~20% of Canada’s 2014 emissions)

Climate change scenarios

The Copenhagen Diagnosis: www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/

Victor fen and bog, HBL

Bogs

– small changes because the internal feedbacks are strong

Fens

– possibly big changes because of weaker internal feedbacks

STABLE

LESS STABLE Lorna Harris

Peatlands & permafrost

http://bolin.su.se/data/ncscd/

http://www.nap.edu/read/11013/chapter/5

Peatlands & permafrost

SAS palsa bog, Kuujjuarapik, Quebec

Z. Wang Stordalen peat complex, Abisko, Sweden

CO2

CO2 CH4

CO2 CH4

CH4

© ADAPT Coordinator – NSERC Discovery Frontiers program

Alaska

Merritt Turetsky

Rivière-du-Loup

Scotty Creek, NWT

David Olefeldt

Line Rochefort

A Message from Minister Pierre Arcand

“the maintenance of biological diversity, ecological processes and ecological functions, including the storage and sequestration of carbon in the Far North”

The aim of the Plan Nord is to promote the potential for mining, energy, tourism, and social and cultural development in Québec north of the 49th degree of latitude. It will create jobs and wealth for northern communities and for Québec as a whole, while ensuring respect for the northern population and the environment. By harmonizing the economic, social and environmental aspects of the Plan Nord, the Québec government intends to make it a responsible, sustainable and unifying project for Québec society.

Enjoy reading! http://www.plannord.gouv.qc.ca/en/

Quebec’s Plan Nord – Ontario’s Far North

Canada is now committed to reducing its Vancouver pre-meeting GHGs emission …

March 3, 2016

April 13, 2015 Cap and Trade Carbon plans: Ontario, Quebec & California …

March 10, 2016

How is Canada going to reduce…?

Current trajectory

Solutions to reduce emissions 1. Reduce emissions for fossil fuels and cement

COP21

2. Avoid emissions from land-use change 2030 https://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=FBF8455E-1

http://bolin.su.se/data/ncscd/

Development in northern Ontario For Canada Emissions 2014: ~ 860 Mt CO2 CO2 eq. in peatlands alone: 540 Gt

~40+ Gt C or ~150 Gt CO2

≈ 600 years of emissions Convert < 0.1% of land equals 1 yr of emissions

~ 850 years of Ontario’s 2014 emissions of CO2 (170 Mt CO2)

Summary • We have a problem!

• We have committed to reduce our emissions • Right now Canada’s CO2 is from fossil fuels and land-use, but not from land-use change • But Canada wants to develop the north (needs to?)

• The north hold globally significant stores of ecosystem carbon • What does the next fifty years have in store for us?

Yet another one …

Questions for us to think about …

• What moral obligation does Canada have for carbon stewardship of its northern terrestrial ecosystem?

• What role should carbon management play in northern development decisions?

• What mechanisms could Canada use to ensure carbon sustainably if the north is developed?

Solutions and strategies • Preserve the high density carbon deposits: avoid or design around them • Mitigate against loss of medium density deposits • Offset the land-use carbon release from disturbance to living biomass

Thank you for your attention …

Happy to answer questions …

nigel.roulet@mcgill.ca

Hudson Bay Lowland