Trend Map - Puffy Sleeves by Alice Taylor

Trendmap Report

contents ABOUT TRENDS introduction methodology what is a trend? life of a trend trend forecasting impact of trends how trends are created consumer perception Alice Taylor N0841768 Word Count: 2750 I confirm that this work has gained ethical approval and that i have faithfully observed the terms of the approval in the conduct of this project.

Alice Taylor signed ..........................................................

HIGH STREET TREND 4 6 7 8-9 10 12 14-15 16

in store shop safari online shop safari

34-35 36-37

THE EDITORIAL editorial mood board editorial mapping editorial for harper’s bazaar

38-43 45-47 48-53

THE TREND key trend : puff sleeves key drivers history of puff sleeves key designers : richard quinn key designers : cecilie bahnsen key designers : valentino prediction for 2021

18-19 20-21 22-23 24-25 26-27 28-29 30-31

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

56-65

BIBLIOGRAPHY

66-67

APPENDIX

introduction

Fashion changes from day to day, constantly evolving each year. New trends are being spotted both on catwalk shows and high street stores. Trend forecasting enables brands to provide their consumers with the most up to date fashion trends and be ahead of competitors. This report will outline the key definition of trends and trend forecasting, analysing key influences the influence and drive trends to where they are. Understand the role of the media and cultural influences on the cycle of trends and what will influence the direction in which the trend will go in the future and how they will influence new trends. Selecting a key trend from 2019 and 2020 will be fully evaluated to understand the origin of the trend along with the factors that have evolved this trend to be such a renowned trend today. This report will analyse how the trend is represented and portrayed both on catwalks and on high-street. With further analysis into physical stores and the current affects of COVID-19 on the future of trend forecasting. Finally there will be a fashion editorial to model how the trend is worn and how show key examples of how the trend is represented.

methodology

what is a trend?

This report will use both primary and secondary research to develop a deeper understanding of a specific SS20 trend. To also analyse how the trend is incorporated into high street stores with who safari in Nottingham and the trend tracking in to the street style of Nottingham featuring this trend. This research also gives an insight into the drivers for consumers and evolution of the trend each season and what is specific about the SS20 trend. Using databases to also gain deeper knowledge about how the trend is developing whilst also using print media to understand how the trend is portrayed in high end editorial fashion.

a general direction in which something is developing or changing (Lexico, 2020) Trends are a fundamental piece of the consumer and their buying habits. They shape and change the behaviour of consumers through the impacts they have on society. Fashion trends in particular are “ a particular style, or clothing popular at a certain point of time or a particular period of time”(Mohindra, 2020). Macro and micro trends are at the forefront of how trends are categorised. Macro trends are “Major shifts in consumer behaviour that will dictate our business environment in the long-term” (LS:N, 2020), these are normally more than 5 years in lifespan. Macro trends are the most influential and will affect consumers emotionally and stylistically. Whereas micro trends are “Specific shifts in consumer behaviour that are changing the business environment in the short-term” (LS:N, 2020) and these are often in cycles that come and go.

life of a trend The Diffusion theory opens the idea to see why and who is adopting a certain trend. The behaviour of certain consumers will affect the life cycle of a trend and the popularity of a certain trend. This theory is usually used to further understand fashion trends. It shows where the trends are going moving forward and discover the power, time span and popularity of adopters and main-streamers.

Another model that’s used often is the trend life cycle graph. A trend is “accepted and diffused amount people at a moderate rate; it is slowly accepted in the beginning, rapidly rises, reach its peak and gradually declines.” (Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2013). This graph helps see how particular trends perform in the consumer markets. The ability to analyse the trend at its peak will give an idea into the longevity of the trend and how long brands will involve this into collections.

frequency of adopters

fashion

classic

fad

time passage of life cycle

Similarly the diamond shaped model by Henrick Vejlgaard was developed to gain an understanding on the diffusion of trends across consumers. “The trend creators form trends, but the trendsetters grow the trend similar to innovators and early adopters.” (Mathew, 2019). It is fundamental to understand the direction of the trend and this is why using models like the Diamond-shaped model by Vejlgaard is so beneficial to brands and will give an insight into upcoming changes in the trend.

trend forecasting

Forecasting trends is used to analyse a trend and understand the pattern it will go in. Forecasting allows for the unpredictability and uncertain peaks and troughs of certain trends to be understood ahead of time. Forecasters research fashion itself, popular culture, street style, retail design, art, lifestyle and the digital culture. Forecasting requires deep analysis into consumers and consumer segmentation whilst also looking into shifts in behaviour and monitoring buying habits. It is useful for creating long term marketing strategies and making large decisions as well as reducing the overall risks of a business selling goods. For the competitive stance of businesses the require trend forecasting as they need to “remain competitive and profitable and apparel product developers must respond to consumer preferences”(Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2013) which can only be done through the deep analysis

of consumers habits to follow a trend and therefore be the market leader. Specialist forecasting can be done through agencies like WGSN which includes services like “WGSN In-stock, which tracks stock and selling patterns and behaviour globally in real time across a wide range of retailers” (Holland, 2017). Brands have buyers and merchandisers as well as creative directors to follow the trend forecasts that are produced for inspiration to develop and create the upcoming season collections. The benefits of forecasting are that it minimises risks and helps prevent wasted good and over expenditure. It’s also a way to stay ahead of competitions and consumers, meaning that they are the brand that offers what is currently a need as a trend reaches its peak. The timing of this can cause brands to lose money and not make any profits in a season and they can lose consumers to competitors.

impacts of trends The global impact of trends are detrimental to both the environment and on society. Increase in demand for the latest trends grows year on year, meaning the waste created from high demand trends is increasing. With Americans consuming “ more than 20 billion garments per year, or 64 items per person every year” (AMED, 2020) which then goes to waste when the next big trend is entering the market. With the fashion industry producing “10% of all humanity’s carbon emissions, is the second-largest consumer of the world’s water supply, and pollutes the oceans with microplastics.” (McFall-Johnsen, 2019) meaning brand are making clothes just to fit the high demand at the time and no longer for longevity.

“

Our man-made constructed environments are disconnected and unaware of other life and the planet, which is why there is waste.

“

(McCartney, 2017)

The turnover of fashion is just so quick and so throwaway, and I think that is a big part of the problem. There is no longevity.

(McQueen, n.d.)

how trends are created Trickle down

Elite consumers buy into the latest items, and as these are often role models for mainstreamers, meaning consumers copy the style with cheaper more high street versions. The elitists or designers want to keep their individualism and so move onto a new trend that consumers will eventually replicate.

designers elite consumers

Trickle across This type of trend beginning means that trends are accessible at all levels of the market simultaneously. This is a popular way for mid market and mainstream consumers to buy into a trend as they are available the quickest.

Catwalk trends

retailers media

Designer stores

consumers mass market

Middle-market

Fast fashion

New ecosystem The widely attainable fashion and online line media mean that trends can start at any point in the market like the mid-market and spread into any direction. This means it was also miss areas out, meaning the path to measure the movement of how trends are created isn’t as obvious and the contemporary and traditional flow allow for forecasters to measure at any point a trend comes in.

Bubble up

Designer

Designers are sometimes influenced by niche groups and subcultures, and they research into these for inspiration, taking from media and arts to innovate styles, an example is “Yves Saint Laurent’s 1966 Rive Gauche collection, which was influenced by the style of beatniks on Paris’ left bank”(Holland, 2017). This way of trend development is called a bubble up as those at the bottom influence those at the top, however this is a risk when it comes to commercial fashion and it can become a fad quicker.

Designers

Retailers and media

Editor

Street Style

Consumer

Retailers Media Blogger

Celebrity

Consumers Subcultures

Trend services

Stylist

Consumer Perception

In a survey via instagram completed by 132 respondents, 70% of people said they were influenced by trends however 30% were not suggesting that not all consumers buy into trends and out of that 70% that were influenced only 13% actively follow trends.

the trend Spring Summer 2020 is a season featuring Puff sleeves once again, it is a specific trend that is seen year on year due to its wide consumer target and the ease of high street and street style adaptation. It’s a powerful silhouette that is featured on runways and the innovation each season changes to keep this trend alive. The constant increase of women empowerment grows and with this power sleeves become that loud silhouette that’s is used as a voice, and puff sleeves are the newer way of creating a dramatic and voluminous silhouette. Puff sleeves are driven by catwalks and street style influencers, WGSN says “our social media data shows the trend consistently peaks during fashion weeks up 11% in Sep 18. The trend saw slow adoption until S/S 19, when it finally infiltrated into early mass with 12.7%, June 2019” (WGSN, 2019)

KEY TREND PUFF SLEEVE SS20

key drivers influencers

The trickle down theory relates the puff sleeve trend to the mass market. Influencers wearing puffy sleeves will encourage mainstreamers and mass market to pick up the trend.

nostalgia

Nostalgic styles are making a come back and the trend driver of 1980’s. This has evolved through the bubble up theory as subcultures who wear vintage clothing has been replicated by designers.

history of puff sleeves

The puff sleeve emerged in the Renaissance period with and popularity would wane and re surge in the Edwardian age of the early 1900s

Puff sleeves once again returned in the 1930s as a retaliation to the previous focus on shapeless silhouettes, androgynous styles that were worn.

This hyper feminine style returned in the ’80s. The 80s was a time of bold and exaggerated fashion trends with dramatic oversized shoulders and sleeves accentuating the power of the people in the 80’s, the strong-shouldered power silhouettes were worn by everyone and this trend spoke for the retaliation on politics in the 80’s

Revamped 80s clothes are making a come back against fast fashion and this does mean a growth in exaggerated sleeves. The puff sleeve is also back for the mass market when the elite designers took inspiration from the 80’s like Richard Quinn

“At Richard Quinn’s show this evening, that troubling dissonance was instantly soothed by the sound of the Philharmonia Orchestra and the Bach Choir” (Nnadi, 2019) the juxtaposition of powerful silhouettes and orchestral music gave the looks featuring the puff sleeves a versatile story. His looks feature and avant Gard style with large a colourful pieces and voluminous silhouettes.

“

richard quinn

transforming a woman into a textile (Richard Quinn)

Previous collaborations with H&M allow Quinn’s designs to carry into the high street and street style with ease.

“

cecilie bahnsen

Being ‘girly’ or wearing ruffles and bows doesn’t mean you’re frivolous or unsophisticated. Quite the opposite (Cecilie Bahnsen,2020)

Cecilie’s Fall 2020 collection in Copenhagen features Puff sleeves matched with cloud-like dresses, described as “beautiful, blooming ball skirts and big sleeves, sculpted with delicate silk organza.” (Bobb, 2020). In this runway Puff sleeves are represented gleaming with romance, The white and soft aesthetic to this style of the puff sleeve give show it in a more girlie and idyllic style. Cecilie Bahnsen has become widely known for her romantic, voluminous dress silhouettes and this is the perfect representation of puff sleeves and the personality the hold for consumers. These styles have the ability to be worn as streetstyle, and so high street brands are able to adapt these new fall styles into everyday wear for the mass market.

“

valentino

I wanted to work on something universal, to get back to the essence of shape and volume (Valentino 2019)

This version of how the puff sleeve was styled is taken right back to the beginning of the trend with aesthetics of the Renaissance used through tone and silhouette. Paying homage to the start of the puff sleeve trend. The trend was removed of “all the stiffness by translating dresses into light, floppy Georgette” (Mower, 2019). The normal ‘Valentino red’ isn’t prominent in this collection and this shows the more feminine touch surrounding the puff sleeve trend. This Spring 2020 styling of the puff sleeve is light and resembles the silhouette of power in a softer touch.

prediction for 2021

(WGSN, 2019)

In 2019 WGSN predicted through their Catwalk data that there would be 27% growth in 2020, and the puff sleeves continued their rise across S/S 20 dresses with plus 70% in the UK, and plus 31% in the US. (WGSN, 2020)

For 2021 the trend will take a new and innovative approach with the growth of Voluminous silhouettes with an increase of 165% UK and 145% US (WGSN, 2020). This trend still features heavily around puff sleeves but will grow into featuring skirts.

SHOP SAFARI

in-store shop safari RIVER ISLAND

ZARA

NOTTINGHAM

In river island the puff sleeves were not in one area within the store, they featured in each trend of the store. After two weeks apart the puff sleeve trend was still prominent in all areas of the stores, from going out casual and workwear.

In Zara the puff sleeves were featured in spring colours and sporadic throughout the store, with one or two items per trend. These were featured both on mannequinns and on central wall visuals, however the trend moved up stairs as more summer items came into the store.

TOPSHOP

NEWLOOK

NOTTINGHAM In Topshop the puff sleeves were mainly featured on the front left side of the store with summer items and visually marketed on mannequins for street wear choices. Within two weeks the trend had slowly moved into other trends again including workwear and casual/ basics. 34

NOTTINGHAM The only prominent place for the trend in New Look was the going out section, only featured with pinks, whites and blues to fit the hyper feminine aesthetic that puff sleeves have. The trend of puff sleeves hasn’t moved from this area for more than two weeks.

online shop safari

Pretty Little Thing Online stores like PLT had styles that varied across the board with casual and elegant, these styles are definitely formed from the trickle down effect which is taken from influencers and designers with 2020 spring collections styles seen on the high street.

Missguided Similarly Missguided are also seen to be influenced from 2020 fashion shows with their styles of puff sleeves. The trend trickles down into high street and then into street style for consumers and this is where the trend becomes a mainstream style.

EDITORIAL MOODBOARD

Styling Shoot Editorials aim to visually present a themes or story to the reader and are influenced by pop culture, society and trends. They also showcase trends with styles that fit to the publisher. This is the case for Harper’s Bazaar magazine an international magazine, but also the oldest fashion magazine in America , meaning the nostalgia from the renaissance style and the 80’s fit to the editorial style for Puff sleeves. The magazine also is known for being the ‘style resource for women who are the first to buy the best, from casual to couture’ (Hearst, n.d.)

EDITORIAL MAPPING

Location The location of an editorial should mirror the narrative of the publisher. A plain white background for the editorial is the chosen location for the shoot as it offers a simple and modern aesthetic to the shoot. The silhouette of the puff sleeves will be accentuated and therefore draw attention to the trend in the images. The accentuated silhouette could perhaps create a nostalgic feel to the 80’s however the colour pallet will bring this trend into the 21st century.

Clothing The styling used needed to be fully representative of the trend but also all markets that this trend fits into, with strong and soft silhouettes. Featuring high street and designer items to tie the mix into mainstream fashion.

BEST FINDS

EDITORIAL:

POWER IN THE SILHOUETTE

Runway Report

PUFF SLEEVE TREND

20/21

Harper’s Bazaar

THE

NEW SEASON 48

FLOSSIE

START STANDING STRONG

THE FIRST LOOK AT

2020 TRENDS

2020 / 2021

NEW SEASON TRENDS

Strong, sexy, romantic power, nostalgia is what this trend is all about, and its time for you to get on board.

“a strong silhouette gives me power” - Liberty Sanders

Pump up the volume this summer with the oversized sleeves and eccentric silhouettes. This spring summer 2020 trend bounces back each year straight from the 80’s and each year finding an innovative style for the instagram-savvy influencers to clutch onto.

The Power of the Female Silhouette Photography, Alice Taylor Stylist, Lucy Weible Hair & Make-up, Liberty Blackwell Model, Liberty Sanders

Large and powerful sleeves are very 1680s, with couture designers like Valentino’s paying homage to the begging of the trend with his 2020 collection. Where the trend was removed of all the stiffness forming a light, floppy Georgette style to innovate the style. The author of the Psychology of Fashion Carolyn Mair, 80’s puff sleeves were about “taking up space – a way for women to make their presence felt”. Women are able to imitate masculine styles in a feminine way.

NEW SEASON TRENDS

2020 / 2021

Start Standing Strong The etherial SS20 trend has ballooning sleeves that exude airiness, romance and strength. Where the Puff sleeves are portrayed flattering way to play with shape and volume without holding heavy duty structure, conveying power and femininity

Flossie Clegg wearing Zara Cropped Poplin Bodysuit, with eye-catching billowing-sleeves Photography, Flossie Clegg Stylist, Alice Taylor Hair & Make-up, Liberty Blackwell Model, Flossie Clegg

CONCLUSION

Fashion trends have a huge impact on the fashion industry with designers and high street stores taking inspiration from popular culture, social, cultural and economic factors of society. With brands consciously keeping up to date with the newest trends to maintain consumer satisfaction and profits. However the life cycle of trends isn’t accurate to the Puff sleeve trend as this began over 100 years ago and has been seen come and go every few years, and so this trend could be classed as a classic fashion item. With 2021 being another year to potentially house Puff sleeves, due to its wide consumer target and the ease of high street and street style adaption. The constant increase of women empowerment grows and with this power sleeves become that loud silhouette that’s is used as a voice, and puff sleeves are the newer way of creating a dramatic and voluminous silhouette to give a woman presence in a room. The trend is incorporated into high street stores by going through a range of lifecycles like the bubble up and trickle down affect.

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appendix ADULT MODEL/PERFORMER AGREEMENT RELEASE Photographic shoot: Trend Map

For good and valuable consideration of: _________________________________ I, the undersigned model grant the photographer, and any licensees or assignees, the absolute right to use the photograph(s) and any other reproductions or adaptations, from the above mentioned photographic shoot I give my consent to the photographer to publish, republish, or otherwise transmit the images in any medium for all purposes throughout the world. I understand that the images may be altered or modified in any manner I hereby waive any right that I have to inspect or approve a finished product or copy I understand that the image shall be deemed to represent an imaginary person unless agreed otherwise, in writing, by myself. I understand that I have no interest in the copyright, nor any moral rights, in the photograph I am over 18 years of age

Name of model: Lucy Powell Signature of model: ______________________________ Date:

Student Ethical Toolkit, version 2 24.10.2011

01/06/20

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