Trend Forecasting Report

TREND REPORT

DESN 2365

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remain unsettled “A trend is something that’s going to happen that’s really going to strike a chord amongst the ‘J oe Bloggs’, the people of our everyday society: something that we need to be aware of because it’s going to be impactful.”

Alison Hughes, UK Agent, Carlin International (Higham, 2009: 14)

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contents 7 - INTRODUCTION 8 - BREXIT 10 - TREND INNOVATORS 1.1: Meet Emily 1.2: Customer profile 18 - TREND DRIVERS 2.1: Systematic distrust 2.2: Hierarchy of needs 2.3: State of disorder 2.4: Enoughist movement 24 - TREND IMPACTS 3.1: Life on the road 3.2: Co-living 3.3: Millennial backpacking 30 - TREND CONSEQUENCES 4.1: UK housing system 4.2: Price comparison 4.3: Intergenerational divide 38 - TREND FUTURES 5.1: Hous and car sales 5.2: Referendum refugees 5.3: Minimal millennials 44 - APPENDICES 1: Primary reseach nterview with emily 2: UK Housing Graphs 3: PESTLE Analysis - Brexit 4: Primary research: intergenerational debate 62 - REFERENCES 1: Reference list 2: Figure list

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Word Count - excluding appendices: 2246

remain

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This report will outline a new macro lifestyle trend that will arise from the result of feelings towards the UK referendum. Throughout the report, elements that form the new trend will be documented, referring specifically to trend innovators, drivers, impact, consequences and futures.

On 23rd June 2016, the British population was left with uncertainty about the future, as 51.9 per cent of UK residents voted to leave the European Union (BBC News, 2016). Collecting and processing the complex data following the referendum will take time, meaning that many of the implications of Brexit are currently left unspecified.

However, repercussions, and changes in society and the economy, do create large opportunities for trends to occur, and throughout this report these opportunities will be discussed, specifically referring to a new trend: Remain Unsettled.

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ECONOMICS SOVEREIGNTY POLITICAL ELITISM

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BREXIT

origins of remain unsettled Although the vote was extremely close, it is necessary to understand why the majority of Britons favoured an exit from the European Union. Three main reasons that led to Britain leaving the EU are related to economics, sovereignty, and political elitism (Friedman, 2016). Ultimately, these reasons have stemmed from a national sense of unease, and unhappiness with the way Britain was being ran parallel to the rules of the EU. Furthermore, people felt “left behind and untouched by the economic benefits of five decades of EU involvement” (BBC News, 2016b), and this fuelled the decision to leave.

Despite the result, it is interesting to discuss the warnings and advice that were provided to the British public from experts, prior to the vote. 51.9 per cent of Britons opted to reject cautions related to a rise in unemployment and a plummet in the pound, and also ignored President Obama’s suggestion that the UK would “go to the back of the queue” in terms of “securing a trade deal with the US” (BBC News, 2016b). Along with this, claims were made by Vote Leave that proposed leaving the EU would free up £350m a week that could be spent on the NHS. Such claim is still left uncertain, as new funding is yet to be announced for the NHS after the vote, and any possible benefits are possibly years away (Belam, 2016).

This overall sense of unease, confusion, and disappointment from the UK citizens who wished to Remain, acts as the origin of a macro lifestyle trend, referred to as Remain Unsettled.

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chapter one.

trend innovators

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“millennials’ ‘fury’ over baby boomers’ vote for brexit” (Boult, 2016)

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Trend innovators have stemmed from a divided nation, due to the result of Brexit. The result, along with warnings regarding the implications of Brexit, will create a future trend that involves the Millennial generation, and in particular, the Millennials who wished to remain within the EU. According to Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations (1995), cited in Raymond (2010), trend innovators are those that are responsible for the articulation of a trend, and the introduction of a new way of living. With this in mind, the target consumer group of Millennials act as the innovators for Remain Unsettled.

According to an Inkling (2016) report, in collaboration with Censuswide, Millennials – those aged 16 – 34 – currently make up for one quarter of the UK population. Predicted to reach 17 million by 2019, this fast-growing generation are thinking, and acting in a new way to other generations, and their attitudes towards life are therefore interesting to acknowledge.

Research conducted by Goldman Sachs, suggests that Millennials have a different view on life, and have grown up in a time of rapid change, giving them different priorities to older generations (Goldman Sachs, 2016).

Relating this to the result of the referendum, and the warnings regarding unemployment and a plummet in the pound, Millennials may postpone buying homes, and luxury items such as cars, and build an ‘empire’ of experiences rather than an ‘empire’ of owned items.

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meet emily.

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During primary research, an interview with 21-year-old Millennial, Emily Steele, took place (refer to Appendix 1). Emily acts as a typical innovator for the Remain Unsettled trend, as while she may be studying at university, she has visited approximately 10 countries over the past 12 months. Emily believes that “it's important for people to travel, it makes you a richer person and gives you life experiences and skills�

(Steele, 2016). With this in mind, Emily can bee seen to be thinking in a different way to other generations, as one of her top priorities in life is to travel, gain experiences and see the world.

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customer profile.

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Age - 21 Lifestyle - busy Political - labour party Occupation - final year university student Income - part-time job and student loan Enjoys - travelling, reading, socialising, scrolling through social media Purchasing behaviour - purchases essentials Personality - outgoing, educated, spontaneous, creative and self Assured

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chapter two.

trend drivers

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live for the now page 20 | remain unsettled

According to Raymond (2010: 42), trend drivers are a “result of an ongoing and sometimes fragmentary debate within society”. Raymond (2010) goes on to explain that in order to understand what drives a trend, it is useful to conduct a PESTLE analysis, as this aids the understanding of issues in society at the current time (See Appendix 3 for PESTLE analysis).

2.1: Systematic Distrust The first trend driver refers to the fact that the Remain Millennials carry ‘systematic distrust’ (Fus Mickiewicz and Szymanska, 2016) and due to the result of the referendum feel let down and ignored by institutions within the UK. According to UK Government statistics (Ridley, 2016), the result of Brexit revealed that 75 per cent of individuals aged 18-24 voted to remain in the EU, compared with 39 per cent who voted to leave. Newspaper headlines regarding Millennials’ disappointment over the referendum include: “Millennials’ ‘fury’ over baby boomers’ vote for Brexit” (Boult, 2016); “The U.K.’s Old Decided for the Young in the Brexit Vote” (Shuster, 2016), and “Young ‘Screwed by Older Generations’” (Ridley, 2016). This notion of distrust, dissatisfaction, and overall unease about the future, will lead to the trend ‘Remain Unsettled’.

2.2: Hierarchy of Needs In some respects, the traditional Hierarchy of Needs (Maslow, 2013), can be said to have been reinvented by Millennials as unlike previous generations, this group are reluctant to buy items such as cars, luxury goods, and even houses. However, although they are ‘reluctant’, this may fundamentally be due to a combination of low incomes and scarce jobs (Goldman Sachs, 2016). According to Steven Szakaly, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association, it will “take four Millennials to replace the spending power of one Baby Boomer in the automotive marketplace” (Fus Mickiewicz and Szymanska, 2016); this statistic shows the contrast of spending powers between generations. Due to this contrast in spending power, physical items have now been seen to have declined in importance over recent years (Robinson and Laughlin, 2014).

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“... getting more of anything makes life worse, rather than better.�

(Naish, 2008: 2)

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2.3: State of Disorder Currently there is a state of disorder, as “politicians are exploiting people’s anxieties surrounding terrorism, mass migration and the refugee crisis” (Fus Mickiewicz and Szymanska, 2016). Such anxieties are therefore forcing residents of the UK to live in a world of fear and in turn may influence them to ‘live for the now’.

Along with this, the terrorism crisis may also force some residents to pack up and leave the UK, creating a life that is on-the-go.

2.4: ‘Enoughist Movement’ Author, John Naish, has documented what he refers to as the ‘enoughist’ movement, which campaigns against over consuming items, food, and information.

He believes that in the Western world, we now “effectively have everything we could possibly need”, and that ‘enoughness’ is the “tipping point, beyond which getting more of anything makes life worse, rather than better” (Naish, 2008: 2). Such movement suggests that getting richer no longer makes us any happier, and mass consumer movements now “repel” many individuals (Raven, 2008). Furthermore, it has been argued that “ownership is receding as an ideal and a way to mark value” (Robinson and Laughlin, 2014), which suggests that there is a push to rent, share and borrow, as one already owns ‘enough’.

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chapter three.

trend impacts

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3.1: Life on the Road A change in living standards is an example of how Remain Unsettled is already manifesting in society today. Millennials are already choosing to live in vehicles, rather than traditional homes, helping to cut living expenses down significantly (Inside Edition, 2016). American Millennial Murrary, explains: “Travel, learning about new cultures and meeting new people, having meaningful experiences – that’s what is important to us” (Jagneaux, 2016).

This shows that even with a house, a successful career, and a marriage, Millennials are still feeling “dead inside”. Saving up money, quitting their jobs, and taking the plunge to live life on the road is their answer to this problem.

Another Millennial David Sandel, states that he left his $90,000-a-year job to live his life on the road in a van, and it was the “best decision” he ever made.

Sandel explains that he became “enamored with the idea of living smaller, living simpler, and not being tied to a cubicle or answering to supervisors who didn’t value my [his] ideas” (Sandal, 2016).

He also expressed that living in a van is extremely cheap, proving that money is not essential in order to have a fulfilling life.

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3.2: The Rise of Co-living Co-living is a relatively new term which refers to living in a residency, similar to a hotel; it is a new way for young people to live in cities, and it is designed to bring individuals together, whilst providing convenience and quality (The Collective, 2016). Co-living is already evident across the United States, however within the UK it is still a new phenomenon (Bearne, 2016).

Old Oak London, is a newly built communal space that allows Millennials to live in their own space, yet under the same roof as a number of other Millennials. With standard rooms starting at £220 per week, some critics may argue whether having a single room and toilet is value for money, however the unique selling point of coliving is being able to socialise and mix with new people and cultures, overall creating a less lonely living experience. Eden – Millennial currently residing in Old Oak – states that she now pays £1083 per month, which is now £220 less than her previous house share, and also includes her gym membership. (Bearne, 2016).

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3.3: Millennial Backpacking Travelling and in particular, backpacking and gap years, are increasingly popular with the Millennial generation; In 2003, youth travel accounted for “between 20 and 25 percent of all international trips” (Richards, 2003: 1). Furthermore, in the United States, the Boston Consulting Group reported that Millennials are more interested in travelling abroad than over generations, by a “23-percent-point margin” (Machado, 2014). Although this statistic is with reference to solely the United States, it is still interesting, as the United Nations estimated that 20 percent of all international tourists are Millennials, meaning that Millennial travel is already manifesting around the world.

With an increase in youth travel, Fitzpatrick (2015: 14), believes that UK Millennials are “pushing the boundaries of what is possible in the travel industry”, through the use of social media, online bookings, and the desire to have authentic experiences.

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chapter four. trend consequences

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‘an impossible dream’

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4.1: UK Housing System Driven by a “price boom and stagnant real wages” (parliament.uk, 2015), consecutive governments have been unsuccessful when matching housing supply with demand (see Appendix 2). The recent inflation of houses in high demand areas (see Appendix 3), has also led to the opinion that by 2020, home ownership will become an ‘impossible dream’ for anyone who is not already on the property ladder. In addition to this, as homes become harder to afford, The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, quoted in Peachey (2016), believes that approximately 1.8 million more households will be seeking to rent property by 2025, resulting in an additional shortage in rental properties. This housing shortage directly links to Millennials, because if owning a house is highly unlikely, the generation will need to find alternative solutions for living.

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“millions today are just not making ends meet, just not making it onto the property ladder and just not living the lives to which they aspire.�

(Wylie-Harris, 2011)

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4.2: Price Comparison Websites Although it is argued that “under pessimistic

economic conditions, consumers tend to curb their consumption, especially on luxury goods” (Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2011: 5), another clear indicator of economic hardship in the UK is the increased usage of price comparison websites. In 2013, it was noted that there has been significant growth in the use of such websites in recent years, displaying consumer’s aim to find uncostly solutions (Atticus, 2014). Furthermore, the use of websites such as moneysupermarket.com and gocompare.com is not a new phenomenon, as in 2008 it was reported that approximately 19 million Britons have logged onto such sites (Knapton, 2008). This suggests that within the UK there is a “breed of empowered UK shoppers”, that are changing the way consumers think, and act when purchasing products (Leach and McGovern, 2015).

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4.3: Intergenerational Divide Over recent years the intergenerational income and wealth divide has continued to increase in countries within the EU (Huttl, Wilson and Wolff, 2015). It has been reported that this divide between old and young has stemmed during the financial crisis, as “youth unemployment and youth poverty rates increased, government spending shifted away from education, families and children towards pensioners� (Huttl, Wilson and Wolff, 2015). Furthermore, this intergenerational divide between Generation X and the Millennials, has also become progressively obvious in the workplace, which has stemmed from a difference in language, technology, and alternative views (Wessel, 2015).

Relating this back to Remain Unsettled, as it became clear that the result of the referendum was clearly divided by generations, primary research took place to understand this intergerational divide further (see Appendix 4). With secondary and primary research, it is evident that within society, an intergenerational divide has been manifesting for a number of years, and now Millennials are ready to make a change.

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chapter five.

trend futures

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escape

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5.1: Sales for New Cars and Homes Plummet As previously stated in this report, followers of Remain Unsettled will avoid buying new houses, meaning that the demans for housing in the UK will lower. Along with this, the desire for new cars will also lower. Research shows that although there is a strong growth in businesses buying company vehicles, this outweighs the demand for private buyers, which has been falling for a number of months (Kollewe, 2016).

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, whilst fleet car registrations saw growth up to 4.2%, sales to private buyers fell by 1.1%, and have continued to drop monthly since April 2016 (SMMT, 2016).

5.2: Referendum Refugees Towards the end of the lifespan of Remain Unsettled, diffusion and innovation may occur, whereby the trend reaches the end of its life, and there is an opportunity for a new trend to arise (Watson, 2016).

Here a micro trend referred to as ‘Referendum Refugees’ may occur. This trend refers to extreme followers of the Remain Unsettled trend, who flee the country completely, due to the impact that Brexit has on the UK. Referendum Refugees’ anxieties surrounding unemployment and the plummet in the pound will force them to leave the UK, either living the basic life from a backpack, or setting up home in another country.

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5.3: Minimal Millennials What is the difference between simple living and minimalism? According to (Gottberg, 2015), minimal living refers to de-cluttering and removing unnecessary items, whereas a ‘simple live’, refers to simplicity throughout all elements of a person’s life. With this in mind, in the future there may be a rise in Minimal Millennials, who view that a home is somewhere to sleep and live, but not an investment. The investment is now how Millennials’ live their lives outside their homes.

A rise in plain furniture, and in some cases second hand furniture, will become more apparent.

Buying second hand furniture could therefore lead to eBay sales rising, as furniture is currently the company’s third most popular category accounting sales of more than £1.35bn (Sims and Labeau, 2009). In partnership with minimal housing, a micro fashion trend may arise, whereby Minimal Millennials will have similar aesthetics; for example, plain and minimal clothing, fewer articles of clothing, and no accessories.

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appendices

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one. interview with emily steele

1. Did you vote in the 2016 referendum? If so, did you vote to leave or stay? If not, which would you have wished for?

I did not vote in the referendum as I wasn't in the country at the time and also I do not plan to live in the UK. But I think there are a lot of arguments for both sides, there is always people who won't be happy about the outcome. For me, it benefits my parents to leave the EU because they are small business owners, however it may limit the ability of people to travel and work freely around the EU, but this isn't necessarily a bad thing. People are free to travel where ever they wish as long as they have a passport, to live and work is different. I think ultimately countries should reduce the number of foreign workers to protect their jobs and culture. When I travel I like to meet people from each country and learn about their people and their way of life. If all countries are merged into one, it makes travel a lot different and all the countries similar. Although, I think it's never a bad thing to shake the system and try something new.

2. Approximately how many countries have you visited over the past year?

In the past 12 months I have visited 10 countries.

3. Have you been backpacking before, taken a gap year, or embarked on something similar?

I have never taken a gap year, but I did go travelling alone around America for 4 weeks. I have also been backpacking since around Italy with my boyfriend and

I plan to continue taking backpacking trips around South America, Africa, Asia etc.

4. What do you think is more important – experiences or ownership of items such as cars, luxury fashion, technology etc?

I used to think that having an expensive handbag or a pair of shoes would make me feel so happy, and it did, for only a short amount of time. It was superficial happiness, I was happy because I thought other people would respect me more. I used to buy a lot of clothes, but since I started travelling, I spend every penny on that instead. Every time I look at an expensive bag, I think to myself: I could have a weekend in Italy for the price of one bag that will make me happy for maybe 10 minutes. To me, there is no comparison. I live cheaply to enjoy experiences that money can't really buy. Now I feel like people respect me more. I have a lot of people who message me and ask me how they can do it too and for travel advice. I feel I know a true happiness now, which I never knew before and I feel like I could die tomorrow and know I lived my life well with many rich memories rather than things.

5. Do you plan on getting a mortgage within the next 5-10 years?

Perhaps, you never know what the future will hold.

But it won't be in the UK more likely in the United States, it's not a high priority for me to think about.

6. Why do you enjoy travelling so much, and what made you want to travel? I think there is so much in

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the world to see, more than one person ever could. I feel it's important for people to travel, it makes you a richer person and gives you life experiences and skills. You also find out what you're capable of. It imbues an entirely different perspective and requires a greater understanding of others to travel well. After a time, it also makes you appreciate your home and where you come from a lot more. Travelling makes you realise there is so much more to life and in this world than your bubble. You can leave your small insignificant problems behind. The vast world makes your problems small. I originally wanted to travel I think because I get bored easily. I didn't like the idea of staying in one place and becoming trapped living an ordinary life. Now I wish to see as many things as I can before I have 'real' responsibilities and commitments-which won't make me stop travelling but I have to fund it somehow.

7. Can Millennials travel on a tight budget?

Yes of course. I have travelled to 10 countries in the past year almost solely on my student loan. It's also very much a social thing, once you travel and meet other people from other countries, you always have a place to stay there for free. It's very easy to travel cheaply, and you get better at it the more you do it. I would say I could go for a weekend in Italy for the same price as an average night out. £30 flights, €40 private hostel, €5 pizzas and €5 wine. It is very possible!

8. Would you prefer to own a house and have a successful career, or an average paid job, but be able to carry on travelling?

I would definitely choose an average paid job and be able to carry on travelling. Travelling to new places is what makes me happy and where I get a lot of enjoyment. I wouldn't sacrifice that to have more money, and not be able to spend it on what I wanted.

What is the point in life if you're not happy?

9. What is your opinion on Millennials packing up their things, quitting their jobs and living in a vehicle in order to save money? Would you do this?

I think that will become a more regular thing, it's very difficult for young people to get on the property ladder. I think it's a good learning experience, even if it's only for a short amount of time. I have lived out of a small backpack for 4 weeks and it makes you realise how much stuff you don't need. We all have rooms full of stuff that we think we need, when really we don't. It will make you appreciate home comforts a lot more. I would consider doing it, not forever, but I'm open to new experiences always.

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two. graphs: uk housing system 33/

What does this graph show?

This graph shows the clear difference between the rise in new households, compared to the number of houses currently available within the UK; this comparison evidently reinforces the fact that the UK housing supply, does not meet the demand.

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What does this graph show?

This graph shows indicates the growth of the private rental sector from 19912013/2014. Over the past decade it is clear that there has been a substantial rise in private rentals.

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three. pestle analysis: brexit A PESTLE analysis is described as an “essential element of marketing research” (Posner, 2014: 65); the tool helps to analysis the macro environment, and comprises of a complex set of variables that can be simplified into key areas: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Ecological. Below is a PESTLE analysis in relation to Brexit, and the result of

political: • Political vote of Brexit, which surrounds the UK leaving the European Union, which has led to markets in “crisis mode” (Brinded, 2016c).

• Political fallout within the UK after Brexit, consequently led to David Cameron resigning and Theresa May arising as the replacement prime minister.

• For the first time in Britain’s history, the new prime minister - Theresa May - was not chosen by a general election, or by MPs. Instead she was elected by party activists – reports the Bush (2016), from the New Statesman. This means that approximately a mere “0.2% of the UK population” chose Theresa May as the leader of Britain (Brinded, 2016b).

• Brexit has led to an initial uncertainty surrounding the make-up, power and leadership of the UK Government (Brinded, 2016c).

• Theresa May can only invoke Article 50, in March 2017, with the backing of UK Government (Wilkinson, 2016) • Following the result of Brexit, it has been suggested that a Scottish referendum is likely to be held (Elgot, 2016).

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economics: • The implications of Brexit, on the economy alone are extremely significant.

• Following the result of Brexit, markets are left with uncertainty, as it is believed that there will be less trade, less investment and therefore less business (Brendid, 2016c).

• Bank of England reported that they were “ready to provide more than £250 billion” of “additional capital to its normal operations”, in order to protect the financial system in the UK from the direct implications of Brexit.

• Pound was, at one stage, hitting a 30-year low – no law that says it cant go any lower (O’Grady, 2016) • A number of organisations - such as the UK Treasury, banks and research houses believe that Brexit will have a negative effect on the economy(Brendid, 2016c) • In May 2016, HSBC reported saying that a UK vote to leave the EU would dampen European economic activity (Brinded, 2016a) • According to Chancellor, George Osborne, by result of Brexit, Britons would be: “£4,300 worse off a year” and the “economy will shrink by 6% by 2030” (Coates, 2016)

• As the country is suffering as a whole from economic downfall, and the plummet in the pound, individuals own finances will also suffer.

• Argued that we will now have a less open and interconnected economy, with not only members of the EU, but globally (Brendid, 2016c) • The falling pound is suggested to be followed by rising inflation (Monaghan, 2016) • Ryanair have already warned that full-year profits would be lower than previously expected due to the result of Brexit (Monaghan, 2016).

• Tesco’s supplier of Marmite, and over household brands, Unilvever, attempted a 10% price rise on Marmite and other product lines. Tesco resisted this and temporarily stopped stocking the products, as they became “embroiled in a row over price” (Butler, 2016) • Import costs rising, meaning that anything we import from abroad will rise in cost – this could result in more local produce being bought (O’Grady, 2016)

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social: • Brexit has left the UK a “broken nation” (Brinded, 2016b); Overall voting result was not a landslide victory for Leave, but instead only a 51.9% win (Hunt and Wheeler, 2016), meaning that tension across the country has been created.

UK residents are left unsure about whether the result was the right result.

• Residents and companies are left in a complex and uncertain position, as everyone is unsure about what will happen next after Brexit (Brinded, 2016b) • It is argued that we should be worried about the future of our “socio-political landscape” (Brinded, 2016b).

• Due to less trade and business, less jobs, and a lower income are argued to now affect UK citizens. This is suggested to overall have effect on Britain’s families, that would “be permanently poorer” (Brendid, 2016d) • Divide between the north and south of the UK was extremely evident in the voting results of Brexit; political fall out can lead to fall out across the country.

• UK citizens have been entitled to a number of free public services, such as the National Health Services, however after the result of Brexit, this could change.

• Social unrest with regards to current migration crisis

• Migration and free movement of people will be linked to the Brexit model that is adopted. It seems that the free movement of people will be a significant point for negotiation (Eversheds, 2016a).

• 4 months on from the Brexit vote, there are warning signs that consumers will see a slow down in living standards (Monaghan, 2016).

• UK will become a harder place to maintain living standards and find a job; it is also suggested that crime rates will rise and “social dislocation” will arise (O’Grady, 2016).

• Wage growth is slowing and unemployment is up (The Guardian, 2016).

• Unclear whether British expats and EU nationals living in the UK will be able to remain in the UK, following this, Theresa May refused to guarantee the rights of those EU nationals living in the UK, and this led to a “backlash from her own supporters” (Wilkinson, 2016) – Philip Hammond backs Theresa May, and also agrees that it is uncertain whether EU nationals can continue to reside within the UK • Inflation could result in higher wage demands.

• General mood lowers, depression could increase, the rising trend of interest and mortgage rates, more job insecurity and a squeeze on real wages, will have a major impact on the residents of the UK.

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technological: • UK technology industry could see its position being reassess, as large firms are debating relocation (Hern, 2016).

• This relocating is likely to affect the regulation and movement of talent within the industry – as free movement of labour will be reassessed.

• Samsung is considering moving its London headquarters to another location within Europe (Ghosh, 2016).

• This relocating of firms will influence whether the UK will stay as the global hub for technology is debateable (Kahn and Satariano, 2016).

• Meyer (2016), believes that Brexit will have a significant effect on start-ups, privacy, telecoms and more.

• The result of Brexit means uncertainty with technological firms and investors, as they are “unable to know for sure how regulations with evolve (or devolve) in the UK” (Meyer, 2016).

• Brexit has led to an issue surrounding data and its ability to flow across boarders. For example, if British companies want to “process the personal data of employees and customers on the European mainland, the country will need to win an adequacy decision” (Meyer, 2016).

• The UK will need to negotiate new data sharing arrangements with both the EU and the US (Kahn and Satariano, 2016) • Once the UK is no longer within the EU, mass surveillance programs that affect other countries will change “dramatically” (Meyer, 2016).

• Microsoft warned that Brexit would make it less likely to invest more in the UK (Business Insider, 2016).

• Technological sector was warned that Brexit would hinder confidence in the sector and make it more difficult to hire talent from abroad.

• British People may no longer be able to get cheap mobile calls and data when they visit the EU, as recent EU legislation allows (Calder, 2016).

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legal: • UK’s existing Data Protection Act, based on older EU rules, will remain in force until the UK completely leaves the EU. However, the upcoming EU privacy reforms - that are argued to be “much tougher General Data Protection Regulation” — will not apply to the U.K. directly.

(Meyer, 2016).

• In an increasing digital economy, it is vital to have clear laws with regards to safeguards, and there will be decisions made regarding whether the UK laws remain the same (Ico. org.uk, 2016) • UK will have to reform its privacy laws in line with the new EU rules, even though we are leaving.

• Legally, the government could now lead to privatising the NHS. • Brexit will result in a loss of 43 years of interconnection between UK and EU law (Simmons, 2015)

• In order to avoid gaps within the UK law, the Government would need to keep a large part of EU law by converting it into UK law.

Furthermore, if the UK wishes to create a new life outside of the EU, it is suggested that the Government will subsequently need to complete three actions: “Negotiate a new deal with Brussels, win a series of major bilateral trade deals around the world, and revise its own governance as EU law recedes” (Holehouse, 2016) • Once the UK leaves the EU, the UK will lose the benefit of the EU’s free trade deals with non-EU countries – the UK will arguably look to replace these deals, and create new trade relationships with countries with which the EU does not have a relationship (Hunt and Wheeler, 2016) • Several countries have already expressed an interest in commencing trade negotiations with the UK including, Canada, China, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Korea and the United States of America (eversheds.com, 2016b).

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ecological: • Membership of the EU has had a significant positive impact on environmental outcomes in the UK, as well as other parts of Europe, with cleaner air, water and oceans than otherwise could be expected( Baldock et al., 2016) • Complete departure from the EU would create identifiable and substantial risks to future UK environmental ambition and outcomes – it would exclude the UK from decision making on EU law and there would be a risk that environmental standards could be lowered to seek competitive advantage outside the EU trading bloc (Baldock et al., 2016) • Leaving the EU would leave British environment in a more venerable and uncertain position than if we were to remain (Baldock et al., 2016)

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four. primary research: intergenerational divide

Jean Mayhew – Age 73 Originally from Scotland – Retired, Living in Blackpool.

Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I voted to Leave.

What are Your Reasons for Your Vote?

I voted to leave the EU because I believe we would have more say in how we conduct our own affairs – that is jobs, taxes, pricing strategies, immigration, laws and internal affairs. I also believe that we would not need to pay billions to the EU if we left, and this money could be spent on our own needs, without the confirmation from the EU. What Do You Predict for the Future of the UK? I am still happy about my vote, and I think that over the next two years everything will settle down – such as the political fallout and confusion; I think this is going on now because we have not finalised out exit yet, and triggered Article 50.

In terms of Scotland, I think this is a different issue, as they want their independence from the UK, and see being in the EU as beneficial for a number of reasons, such as their oil rights.

What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

I know a lot of you younger ones wanted to stay in the EU because of the travelling aspect and freedom of movement, however I don’t think that this will be a problem because as a country the Government do not want to make difficulties for themselves, or others.

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Jessica Nelson – Age 20 Student at the University of Sheffield Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I voted to Remain.

What are Your Reasons for Your Vote?

I voted to Remain mainly because I felt that it was a campaign lead by an absolute joke of a politician, which came down to xenophobic rhetoric and figures pulled out of hats.

I’d say the only slightly good thing to come out of the result to leave would be the prospect of finally having a codified constitution What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

I'd say more young people voted to Remain as there was a valid concern as bureaucratic measures would affect freedom of movement between countries (more job opportunities, the privilege to study abroad which Government funding covers, trading).

It is such a tough one, because I don't think people understood when voting that there was so many aspects to the EU. The campaign involved so much fear mongering, creating this idea that immigration is an apparent threat towards lack of jobs and homes, when it was an elder generation who voted leave whilst living life comfortably of there pensions in houses that they could easily pay off the mortgage I personally think there should be a cap on voting, especially after this referendum, and the minimum age should be lowered to 16. Politics should be a compulsory subject in schools too I personally think, once young people know the basics ins and outs they become more interested, like the more and more there was talk on the EU it showed that people got more hyped up about it!

Andy Doughty – Age 20 Student at the University of Manchester Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I voted to Remain.

What are Your Reasons for Your Vote?

My main reason for voting to remain was the idea that Britain should be an internationalist country.

We have a responsibility to help other nations benefit from economic and political unions. Similarly the EU enshrined such important things like workers rights, human rights and the idea that political unhindered for development can work.

What Do You Predict for the Future of the UK? I’d say I’m worried, it’s the kind of thing which is going to have economic (particularly hitting those worst off) effects for a while to come. Similarly I think it’s helped to normalise UKIP and their hateful rhetoric, especially as someone who identifies as Labour and wants a society that is fair and offers everyone the same opportunities - I think Brexit and the rise of UKIP that follows it represents everything I’ve ever campaigned against politically.

What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

I think Brexit highlighted a divide between the well off and the ‘left behind’ as well as the old and young. Young people overwhelmingly voted for Remain and their future has been put at risk due to the narrow minded view of old people, who have essentially decided a future for us, which won’t ever affect them.

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Sharon Collier - Age 53 Originally from Scotland – Company Owner from Blackpool Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I was in France at the time of the referendum, so I did not vote - however I would have wished to leave the EU. What are Your Reasons for this?

I was not too bothered either way..but the devil in me quite fancied a bit of a change..as it’s all got a bit boring recently and politicians are the same old. I quite liked Boris...yes a bit of a buffoon..but at least some personality.

Whilst travelling in France, a lot of things have changed from when I used to travel, my husband, daughter and I, used to wild camp with the camper and just park up on the wild beaches and camp for a week or more. Lots of people did this and there where even little hippie villages...all very peaceful and kept tidy and no problems. However, last year in France we noticed BIG changes..there are a lot of restrictions now and all the free camping places are no longer free. We noticed some singage in a popular tourist resort paying respects for all the people affected by terrorist events of recent times in France and the rest of the world...also France has a large influx of refugees and free movement of people has caused a lot of taking advantage of the wild free camping and abusing it so that the authorities have now restricted it heavily...taking away from locals and tourists.

What Do You Predict for the Future of the UK? No I am not worried about the future at all, quite the opposite. I see opportunities for positive change, because there will be no heavy restrictions from the EU...we are free (or we will be when it is all in place). We are free to trade with any country we like and we can set up new trade agreements.

I think that being in Europe has been a disadvantage for the UK because we have lost the skills to set up our own trade agreements, as these have been largely controlled by Europe. I think that we need to take back control and I believe it will be good for Britain.

When I worked in the civil service, we had new restrictions put on us working overtime. You could only work so many hours, and this ruling was brought in by the EU. Many workers, along with myself, used to think it was daft that we couldn’t work longer hours if we wanted. This shows that some of the EU laws seemed a bit soft and not in touch with the common workers..so to speak...and you can’t just vote the EU parliament out like you can your own UK government if you disagree with them.

As for the change in Prime Minister, I’m not worried at all. I quite fancied Boris, but Theresa May will do because she seems like a woman determined, and if she does what she said and brings Brexit about as the people voted then this is good for me (I don’t think I like her approach to education, but thats another topic...).

What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

Well, maybe just exactly that, they are young. Because they are young they have not been through the same old same old broken promises and changes from politicians. I don’t know why the younger generation are fearful as I think we now have a chance of a more worldly outlook and thats great... it’s not going backwards it’s positive.

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Danny Marland - Age 20 Student at Leeds College of Music Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I voted to Remain What are Your Reasons for Voting to Remain?

I could go on for an awfully long time about the reasons to stay in, there are many. Firstly, as a supporter of progressive change and left wing politics, it’s my view that a united Europe keeps a stronger economy and makes the UK a safer place in general. I think it’s a lot easier for me to list reasons why leaving the EU would be bad rather than speak in continuous pros if that’s cool?

Exports & investment - The EU buys so much of the UK’s exports. Although this would be reworkable, it would take far too much time to negotiate with other countries. Why fix something that isn’t broken?

Freedom of movement - Many lies were being kicked around about immigration from middle eastern nationals. This was a huge point and lots of people voted to leave based on this one issue, people didn’t look at the bigger picture. You can’t vote on something like this based on one issue, it’s an immature way of looking at things. And to say that leaving the EU would stop this immigration is wrong, people want to stop non-EU citizens entering the UK by leaving the EU. Ask yourself where are these people coming from? not the EU, so it makes no sense really. Another thing is peace, like if the EU is the only thing that is stopping countries going to war then surely it’d be safer to stay in right?

If we want to be part of the global community and be an important part of that community, it’s better to be in an organisation bigger than the country itself. It also means we have outside restrictions in terms of health and safety. People complain about this and say the EU is restricitng what we can and can’t do, yeah that’s correct but if it’s for our safety then that’s the best for us.

A lot of lies were spread about how much money we pay into the EU. It’s the same as any club you join and pay to be a part of, you reap many more benefits. Lots of the UK relies on funding from the EU, which is now jeopardised. Most of the science and research industry is EU funded, but you heard nothing about that in the media as the people who own said media have their own agenda. It isn’t some conspiracy, it’s in Rupert Murdoch’s best interests to leave the EU for his own gain. He’s quoted “when i walk into parliament, everyone does what I say. When I walk into the EU I’m ignored.”

Murdoch owned most of the papers printing all the rubbish that Farage was spewing out at the time.

On the whole, people weren’t educated in a non-bias way. Many of the working class feel failed by our government, who used the EU as a blaming strategy to deflect blame from themselves.

What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

With regards to why many young people voted to remain and many older people voted to leave is an odd one. I think it’s really down to their concerns are vastly different to that of the younger generations. The young see immigration and multiculturalism as a positive as we’ve grown up with it. The older see it as unwanted change, they don’t feel comfortable progressing in such a way.

They like “their” country to be as it once was. But that then begs the question, “what makes it their country?” what has anyone really done to benefit the country and be able to call it there’s. It’s pure chance that they were born on this island than another. I think the referendum was taken far too early. The government should have sat down and organised what would happen if we were to leave.

Then they could clearly state the pros and cons of both sides rather than ask an IN/OUT question based on little knowledge and lies (from both sides)

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What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain - Continued: Many old people use the excuse that they’ve experienced the EU longer than us. Older generations have on the whole had it much easier because of the EU, housing market was fine etc etc. It was Banks’ fault that the world (not just the uk) market crashed yet older people seem to use the EU as a the reason for that. I’m by no means saying the EU is this perfect alliance, but it is by no means the evil it’s been made out to be.

I think that is the main problem you should be writing about, the lack of education around all the topics. Everyone just digested what the media told them and unfortunately the media in the UK is so weighted towards right wing political ideologies that there is no possibility of a balanced argument.

Oh and one more point - the biggest thing googled after the referendum had taken place was something like “what is the EU?” you can’t ask people to vote on something they don’t understand in the first place. That’s it I’m done!

Pam Aspin- Age 67 Retired, living in Blackpool Did you vote Remain, or Leave in the 2016 UK Referendum?

I voted to leave the European Union.

What are Your Reasons for this?

My reasons for voting to leave the EU had nothing to do with immigration (though I think it needs to be controlled as we’re a small country). It had everything to do with sovereignty, trade and freedom.

I’m patriotic and believe that the authority to govern ourselves without interference and permissions from the European Union is paramount. The EU bureaucrats are unelected, dictatorial and faceless.

Do you know more than one or two of them? It all started in the 1970s with the Common Market.

Since then, we were/are being slowly swallowed whole by the European Union. I would rather belong to a stand-alone strong country than to a tiny part of a ‘bloc’ quickly losing our identity. The pound would be next thing to go, in favour of the euro as well as passports (Schengen Agreement if we’d stayed). The EU influences almost all aspects of our lives, how we act, think even feel and I’m very uncomfortable with that when I think about the futures of my children/grandchildren.

What Do You Predict for the Future of the UK? I’m very glad, far from worried, that we’ll be leaving the EU and it can’t come soon enough. I think we have to leave the single market too.. a ‘hard’ Brexit. Article 50 should be triggered asap and after a few years of everything getting sorted the UK will flourish. Among other things we’ll be able to trade freely with the rest of the world and people will be inspired, I think.Our industries have all but disappeared thanks mostly to the EU.. small example our fishing industry, once a huge part of our ‘economy’, is all but gone now but will return once we are actually allowed to fish in the seas around our own country again.

What is Your Opinion on Many Young People Voting to Remain?

I think a number of young people wanted to remain because being part of the EU is all they’ve ever known and they never thought things may change. It’s a ‘leap in the dark’ for them so obviously they’re much more susceptible to remainers scare stories - which we all still hear every day. EU funding/grants etc.. It’s our own counry’s money! We are, at present, given back a tiny percentage of the millions/billions we have to pay to the EU for the ‘privilege’ of being a member. To my mind we’ve had a narrow escape. I love Europe and hope we’ll always be a part of it (we are next to it after all) but definitely not part of the (failing) European Union.

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what does this research show?

This research shows the contrast of opinions between generations in the UK. Although there are only six opinions, I still believe that this research gives an insight into why the old and young voted for Leave and Remain. I believe that a consequence for Remain Unsettled is the intergenerational divide in the UK, and this research displays how different generations have opposing views on subjects.

Sharon Collier mentions that she believes that the young voted to Remain because they have not witnessed as many ‘broken promises’ as the old, and she does not understand why the young are fearful. Similarly to this, Pam Aspin explains that she believes the young are worried about the future because the EU is “all they’ve every known and they never thought things would change”.

Opposing to this, Danny Marland notes that the older generations have had it ‘much easier’ because of the EU, and does not agree with the negative comments put forward relating to the rules of the EU. It is interesting to note that Danny Marland also discusses the fact that the housing market was previously much more stable, and that the young are now suffering more.

It is clear from the research that the Millennials have had strong opinions on the result of the referendum, which should be seen as a positive, because it shows that this generation are interested, and worried about their future prospects.

With direct link to the trend of Remain Unsettled, this research does show that Millennials are infact worried about the future, which backs up arguments related to the drivers of Remain Unsettled.

Again, directly linking to the drivers of Remain Unsettled, Jessica Nelson believes that the campaign was “lead by an absolute joke of a politician, which came down to xenophobic rhetoric and figures pulled out of hats”. This suggests that Jessica lacks trust in the Government, and who is given a say in the result of the referendum.

Andy Doughty also explains that he is worried about the future, as he believes that result will have “economic effects for a while to come”, especially those that are already “worst off”.

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references

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figure list Figure 1: Urban Outfitters, (2016). Girl Surrounded by Nature. [image] Available at: http://blog.urbanoutfitters. com/files/PONTON.jpg [Accessed 5 Dec. 2016].

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Figure 4: Pinterest, (2016). Brain-washed Generation. [image] Available at: https://uk.pinterest.com/ pin/539446861600671736/ [Accessed 5 Dec. 2016].

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Figure 14: Pinterest, (2016). Basic Bed. [image] Available at: https://uk.pinterest.com/pin/539446861600671594/ [Accessed 5 Dec. 2016].

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