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Loic Lisa Manoj
Kristine
Geneviève
Birgit
Nicole
Ron
Jody
Klaus
Marco
MEGA-TREND > A CO-CREATED REPORT BY LEADING CREATIVE THINKERS AND AGENCIES AROUND THE WORLD.
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MEGA-TREND > SERVICES
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A live presentation by a co-editor
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September 04
skin, the ultimate layer
November 04
choice fatigue, creative consumption
January 05
conscious consumption
March 05
ego blooming
May 05
the senses of life
July 05
defragmentation: humanized technology
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EDITO CHOICE FATIGUE: CREATIVE CONSUMPTION THE POWER OF VISION > A clear vision, however naïve, should always be the core of any enterprise. Let’s look at an example from modern art history. Since 1909, Futurism as a movement was fundamentally led through history in what brand analysts would define “inconsistent” fashion. However, from FT Marinetti’s manifesto to Depero’s artwork for Vogue America; from Carlo Belloli’s audiovisual poems to Peter Saville’s design revival; this art movement permeated the XX Century with a clear aesthetic vision, influencing key cultural movements like Concrete Poetry, Situationisme and even Punk. The case of Futurism in art clearly shows how a powerfully formulated vision can set the trends, even if it is poorly executed. Since the dot.com bubble burst, business literature focused greatly on the topic of execution. While execution requires the consistent practice of discipline, vision comes about through the spark of inspiration. It is perhaps time to find a balance between these two equally important enterprise drivers: vision and execution. THE POWER OF ANALYSIS > Acting upon a vision should not just translate into uniformed business behavior. On the contrary, never before has the need for cultural understanding been so pressing. This is why socio-cultural analysis will become increasingly important in translating ‘value proposition’ into concrete ‘value manifestations’ - from products to newly channeled communications. Scanning cultures, I believe, will become the discipline of the successful entrepreneur as diversity and regionalism demands more interpretative
effort than ever to achieve cultural acceptance and consequently business success. This is a task where design through its interpretative and multidisciplinary approach - can offer new frameworks to business thinkers and leaders to transform threats into thrusts. THE POWER OF HISTORY > Social and cultural behaviors in saturated markets call for a whole new approach to channeling awareness and optimizing relationships. However, through cultural scanning, companies can increasingly identify the semantic codes and semiotic rituals, which connect straight to the regional roots of people. The study of history therefore will need to be given a new central role in business studies. I would like to herewith suggest that history is going to be as important as trend research in understanding the future. This movement towards recuperating meaning from our past will happen both at the level of macroscenarios and personal life. Be it the New World Order or your next job, no future can be envisioned without deep understanding of the past. THE QUEST FOR BEAUTY > In his visionary exploration of two millennia of literary thinking - entitled “Six Memo’s for the Next Millennium” - Italo Calvino quoted a pearl of Chinese wisdom “May you live in interesting times.” You can bet we do and interesting times are by defi-nition complex times. Such complexity is an opportunity for companies to play a new role in both global and regional cu-ltures and design can be a fundamental asset in pursuing such ambitious opportunity. The strive for beauty through design, as highlighted by Virginia
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Extract of repor t Postrel in “The Substance of Style”, might translate into a tension towards an overall increased quality of life, from aesthetics towards new ethics. It will probably be design helping refocus the role of technology from “driver” to “enabler” with high tech companies switching to the development of those human-focused applications that will help us all transform our lives the way we actually want. Perhaps a minor manifesto to support this argument is the pivotal essay “Simplicity Marketing” by Steven M. Cristol and Peter Sealey. Ending complexity and confusion is now the first hygiene factor for any brand. With “Choice Fatigue”, trends point towards a lack of harmony in the basic grammar of “offer versus demand” dynamics in advanced societies. A clear vision based on acute analysis of both past and future is a key enabler for business to respond to such challenges. But then, what will the role of beauty be? The answer might come from another question: if the future is going to bring to us more challenges than ever, will this not all be too stressful? In the complex articulation of scenarios that Style-Vision collected for this issue of MegaTrends, I found particularly triggering the reference to the world of flowers. The idea to sometimes stop and smell the roses, or the enjoyment of Michael Cunningham’s “Clarissa Dalloway” as she stops and buys flowers for a feast with friends. This simple, minimal pleasure highlights the concept area that I would mostly like to explore in the near future. This related sensation is what I wish the readers to enjoy in the forthcoming seasons.
Marco Bevolo, Design Director.CultureScan Research. Philips Design With thanks to Claudia Lieshout and Reon Brand.
SUMMARY CHOICE FATIGUE: CREATIVE CONSUMPTION An individual had several social layers between the person and the outside world (think uniform, title, social class). These layers are disappearing more and more - leaving us feeling naked. The skin is the ultimate border, a porous boundary between inside and outside. It protects the body or serves as a canvas for self-expression. All around, we focus on skin as: •The external body limit: nudity, sensuality, intimacy. •The Internal identity border: a self-reflection, the exploration of different ways of being according to one’s mood.
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SCENARIO 1 easy shopping
SCENARIO 2 the unform universe
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SCENARIO 3 a second chance
SCENARIO 4 rebellious consumption
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SCENARIO 5 blank page
SCENARIO 6 call me Flo Wendy
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SCENARIO 7 limited editions
SCENARIO 8 involving promotion
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CO-EDiTORS
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LICENCE
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SCENARIO 7 LIMITED EDITIONS
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CONCEPT > The world around us is clearly saturated with codes, including advertising logos. Yet they all seem to be easily decoded. Where can you find a code that can't be broken? STORY LINE > Lorenzo heads downtown on a specialist training course. Equipped with his very sharp powers of observation, he registers all the visual stimuli dotted along his route: typographical elements, advertising posters, acronyms, logos. Nothing escapes his attention as he scans the urban landscape. These signs, these veritable points of reference, are as familiar to Lorenzo as the stars in the sky are to an astronomer. He fires questions at himself as he goes along: that green acronym - which brand? That model - which ad? Those badges - which association? He gets it right every time, why are they all so b.... easy? Only a few brands can take him by surprise, but when they do, it is the major topic of conversation between him and his friends.
THINK > Encryption, quick obsolescence, limited editions, visual pollution.
SCENARIO 7 LIMITED EDITIONS > design palette
COLORS > urban mood of neutral colours and washed out asphalt. The touches of colours look like make-up marks.
MATERIALS > even the materials that look basic have amazing technical properties.
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SHAPES > the details make the difference on the lengths of the legs brushing the dust.
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SENSATIONS > if my feet are meant to control the city playground, my womb understands it instinctively. My jeans flap on my bottom and sweep the sidewalks. They show my distinctive signs.
SCENARIO 7 LIMITED EDITIONS > indicators 1
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1 1 > Codes: Archaeology is the art of decoding traces, signs and fragments to reconstitute a forgotten civilization. It is a science that fills in the gaps. Our time, on the other hand, suffers from an excess of signs. Count the number of logos you see during a day, and you may well be surprised: • visual stress and uniform landscapes: according to the American Association of Paediatricians, children are stressed out by the 20,000 advertising messages their brains absorb each year. The proliferation of billboards
along roads and in towns is making all urban landscapes look alike. Some brands and advertising agencies even resort to illegal billposting to reach a young public, exploiting the notion of belonging to a tribe. Urban Act, BBH for the latest Levis Type 1 jean campaign. The visual aspect of the town becomes an object of protection and is conducive to association. • ultra-fast obsolescence: a new graphic element broadcast over the Web is instantly obsolete, as it is snatched up and copied
almost immediately. The "45° angle" shape used in Web page design originated in the techno wave; once it fell into the hands of every good, bad or indifferent website designer on the planet it instantly became old-hat. • imperceptible style: in the science fiction novel "Pattern Recognition" by William Gisbon, the heroine, Cayce Pollard, develops an acute allergy to logos. She even sends her Levi 501s to the cobblers to have the logo engraved on the buttons hammered out.
More than logos, our 'innovation" characters love the sign or gesture that distinguishes a personality from the ambient conformity. On the floor of the stock market, relates the Financial Times, "trading style" is discussed as dress style might be analysed elsewhere.
SCENARIO 7 LIMITED EDITIONS > indicators 2
2 2 > Ice-cream design: ‘The Cornetto Love Potion’ is the first brand to deliver a rich media content to customers. Each summer they release 56 new limited edition icecreams, with names like ‘Chocolate with a rum flavour twist’ and ‘Choc nut with a pistachio kiss.’ They are available for a limited time. • TV campaigns: show people screaming on the streets while others are shown kissing. They finish by saying the ice-cream is ‘For A limited period only.’
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3 • Mobile phone based promotion: Customers who purchase a Cornetto Love Potion will receive an exclusive ‘Teasecard’, which gives them the opportunity to send one of nine multimedia ‘Tease’ images with a personal flirt message to their friends. • on blog websites like http://www.snackspot.org/ people are discussing these new flavours
3 > Invisible branding: The trend of ad creep (the gradual expansion of advertising space to nontraditional surfaces such as floors, bathroom walls, cars, and the sides of buildings) is met with increasing resistance. In her book ‘No Logo’, activist Naomi Klein attacks the big brands. The organization Adbusters rebels against the excessive commercialization of our society. In the future advert fatigue may lead to branding becoming a negative rather than a positive factor. We
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6 may then see ‘invisible branding’ where the names of manufacturers are hidden away,e.g. labels on the inside. •imperceptible codes: a head-hunter said once that he decided not to introduce a good candidate for a job because he felt that his socks would made him impossible to be a member of the company.
SCENARIO 7 LIMITED EDITIONS > indicators 3
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4 4 > Triple-named products: Adidas and Yohji Yamamoto (Y3); A Bathing Ape and Reebok (sneakers coming out this Autumn 2004) are so-called ‘double-named brands’. They use the fame of a designer and the production facilities of renown sport brand. However this is not unique or exclusive enough for Japanese customers. So the spread of ‘triple-named’ products are just beginning to appear in Japan. The designer Shinichiro Arakawa who created a line for Honda (using their
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vintage logo and advertising) is now in collaboration with Porter (by Yoshida & Co.) who are the number one brand of causal bag in Japan. Arakawa decided to make an exclusive design of bag, produced by Porter for Honda. It is now also popular to have triple-name products created by young Japanese designers and produced by a famous jean manufacturers. These come in limited editions for a fashion magazine or a store. EXCLUSIVITY is the key word.
5 > Limited editions • Microzine features a limited edition shoe this month, the Puma Kugelblitz Logo freedom • American Apparel: iconographically pure clothing, http://www.americanapparel. net/ • twice a year, luxury make up brands issue 'one shot' products, with a unique packaging in disruption with the usual codes of the brand, but still 'decipherable' as belonging to it
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MEGA-TREND > A CO-CREATED REPORT BY LEADING CREATIVE THINKERS AND AGENCIES AROUND THE WORLD. PUBLISHER
CO-EDITORS Marco Bevolo Area: Communication, Trend research Occupation: Design Director Base: Eindhoven, Holland Contact: goto.bevolo@planet.nl
Style-Vision Base: Nice, France
Lisa Yong Area: Trend Research and Analysis, Cultural Studies Occupation: culturalAntenna Research area: San Francisco and Shangai Contact: lisayong@mindspring.com
Loic Bizel Area: Fashion and Internet Publishing Occupation: Managing Director Base: Tokyo, Japan Contact: www.fashioninjapan.com
Jody Turner Area: Human Culture & Design Occupation: Founder, Culture of Future Base: Los Angeles, California, US Contact: jodyturner@cultureoffuture.com
Birgit Lohmann & designboom Area: Design and Internet Publishing Occupation: CEO & editor-in-chief of designboom.com Base: Milan, Italy Contact: www.designboom.com
Manoj Kothari Area: Graphic Design, Industrial Design, Ergonomics and Branding Occupation: Founder & Director Base: Pune, India Contact: info@oniodesign.com
Klaus Æ. Mogensen Area: Futures studies Occupation: Futurist Base: Copenhagen, Denmark Contact: www.cifs.dk
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Mette Kristine Oustrup Area: Trend research: Occupation: Managing Director, Style-vision Base: Nice, France Contact: kristine.oustrup@style-vision.com
Nicole Contencin Area: Luxury Goods Occupation: Brand Semantics Consultant Base: Paris, France Contact: ncontencin@easynet.fr
Geneviève Flaven Area: Trend research, Style-Vision Occupation: Business Development Director Base: Nice, France Contact: genevieve.flaven@style-vision.com
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