Risk assessment aug12

Piracy situation risk assessment, August 2012, Issue 4 Highlights of the past month 

Last month in Indian Ocean region has seen low pirate activity. There have no serious incidents been reported but one tryout. The weather does not favor pirates there but it does not mean the end of piracy yet. Meanwhile the Gulf of Guinea has experienced a worrying increase in attacks.

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Somalia's president has shielded a top pirate leader from arrest by issuing him a diplomatic passport, according to a United Nations investigation which criticizes the "climate of impunity" enjoyed by pirate kingpins in Somalia and abroad.

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As Puntland Marine Police Force foreign mentors were flown out and the funds suddenly cut off last month and now there is a growing worry that the well trained troops might go over to the dark side and offer their unique skills to the pirate leaders.

Latest attacks (ICC Live Piracy Reports) 15.07.2012: 0355 UTC: Posn: 09:13.9N – 013:47.4W, Around 22nm SSW of Conakry, Guinea.

Seven pirates armed with guns and knives boarded a drifting container ship awaiting berthing instructions.

They entered the bridge, took hostage the 2/O and C/O and tied their hands behind their backs. Two pirates took the 2/O and knocked on the Master’s cabin. As the Master opened the door, they slammed it into the Master’s face and then stole ship’s cash and crew personnel belongings. The pirates re-assembled on the bridge and took the crew members as hostage until they disembarked into their waiting boat. Port control and ships in the vicinity have been informed.

17.07.2012: 0145 UTC: Posn: 06:17.3N – 002:28.1E, Around 1nm off fairway buoy, Cotonou Anchorage, Benin.

Two robbers armed with guns boarded an anchored bulk carrier. They entered Master's cabin and stole ship's cash and escaped in a fast small wooden boat.

No injuries to crew. Incident reported to authorities who arrived onboard to investigate.

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27.07.2012: 1145 UTC: Posn: 13:34N - 042:39E, Red Sea. Two white coloured skiffs with seven armed pirates in each skiff approached a bulk carrier underway in the TSS south of Hanish Al Kubra Island from the port and stbd sides. As the skiffs closed to 0.2nm from the vessel, ladders were sighted and the onboard armed security team fired warning shots resulting in the skiffs moving away.

27.07.2012: 2330 UTC: Posn: 06:05N - 001:18E, Lome Anchorage, around 3nm SxE off breakwater, Togo.

D/O onboard an anchored chemical tanker noticed on radar a wooden boat approaching at a speed of five knots. Lookouts directed the search light towards the approaching boat and 12 armed robbers were identified. Alarm raised and ship's horn sounded but the boat continued the approach. All crew except duty officer entered the citadel. The D/O tried to call Togo navy without success. After alerting other ships in the vicinity the D/O retreated into the citadel as the robbers boarded the vessel using ropes and hooks. After several attempts to contact the Togo navy directly and later with the assistance from other ships in the vicinity, the D/O finally established communication with the navy and informed them of the boarding. After around 30minutes the a Togo navy boat arrived, confirmed no other boats in the vicinity and informed the D/O to check accommodation and then other areas of the ship. Once the crew established that no robbers onboard the navy personal boarded the vessel, did a complete search of the vessel and took statements from the crew. Nothing was stolen and no damages were done to the tanker.

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Weather Forecast for 26 July - 2 August (according to Office of Naval Intelligence) A. (U) GULF OF ADEN: West-southwesterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: West-southwesterly winds of 10 – 15 knots, becoming southwesterly at 6 – 10 knots with seas of 3 – 5 feet.

B. (U) SOMALI COAST: Southwesterly winds of 24 – 28 knots and seas of 9 – 12 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Southwesterly winds of 25 – 30 knots and seas of 9 – 12 feet.

C. (U) ARABIAN SEA: West-southwesterly winds of 20 – 25 knots and seas of 9 - 12 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: West-southwesterly winds of 20 – 25 knots and seas of 9 - 12 feet, abating to between 7 – 9 feet.

D. (U) CENTRAL AFRICAN COAST/INDIAN OCEAN: Southerly winds of 15 – 20 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet. EXTENDED FORECAST: South-southeasterly winds of 18 – 22 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet.

E. (U) MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: South-southeasterly winds in the northern Channel of 8 – 14 knots with seas of 5 – 7 feet. In the southern Channel, south-southeasterly winds of 18 – 22 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet. EXTENDED FORECAST: In the northern Channel, southsouthwesterly winds of 15 – 20 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet, building to between 7 – 9 feet. In the southern Channel, south-southeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet, building to between 9 – 12 feet.

Red areas – higher risks of pirate attacks due favorable weather conditions:

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Summary and Recommendations 

Mainly due weather conditions the pirate’s activities will likely occur mainly near to coastal areas. If possible the vessels should avoid paralleling the coasts. Once the monsoon season is over

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The decline in Somali piracy, however, has been offset by an increase of attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, where 32 incidents, including five hijackings, were reported in 2012, versus 25 in 2011. In Nigeria alone there were 17 reports, compared to six in 2011. Togo reported five incidents including a hijacking, compared to no incidents during the same time last year. The IMB report emphasized that high levels of violence were also being used against crew members in the Gulf of Guinea. Guns were reported in at least 20 of the 32 incidents. At least one crew member was killed and another later died as a result of an attack.

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Regardless of how the world economy is doing, pirates are continuously doing quite well.

It is, thus, no surprise that attacks will become bolder and more coordinated, as pirates step up their efforts for successful missions. Somali pirates will increasingly operate from hijacked vessels acting as 'mother ships', enabling them to operate further out to sea. AlQaeda in Yemen is transporting the rockets, explosives, shells and ammunition to alShabaab in Somalia that indicates the growing firepower against anyone who is trying to step up against them and probably some of those assets will be used for pirating purposes as well. In addition they seem to enjoy more political asylum by local powers that will make their prosecutions even more difficult than it has been so far. There are still no easy solutions.

Sources: IMB, Reuters, Times of Oman, Russia Today, Foreign Policy, Somalia Report, gCaptain, Office of Naval Intelligence.

We wish you safe voyages!

Alphard Maritime Security team info@alphardmaritime.eu www.alphardmaritime.eu

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