Risk assessment nov12

Piracy situation risk assessment, November 2012, Issue 7 Highlights of the past month 

Last month has seen once again low pirate activity around East-Africa. There were two reported incidents nearby Somalia. One vessel being fired upon, but due proper action by onboard security team repelled the pirates, and another vessel kidnapped. Luckily the kidnapped vessel was freed a day later by EU Naval Force.

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There were at least twelve robbery incidents in South-East region, mainly around Indonesia. The typical attack involves three to twelve robbers, armed with long knives, boarding vessel and robbing the vessel and seamen’ property.

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There were two hijackings reported in West-Africa region. In one the pirates have captured seven seamen for ransom that indicates some deviation of the pattern they have been practicing so far.

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There was a local fishing vessel hijacked near Sri Lanka (East of Galle). This is uncommon but is not likely an indicator of a new threat to shipping community.

Latest incidents (ICC Live Piracy Reports and other sources) 04.10.2012: 2030 UTC: Posn: 04:48.8N – 001:25.1E, around 80nm south of Lome, Togo. Around 10 to 12 pirates armed with automatic guns boarded a tanker drifting in the STS area. The pirates hijacked the tanker and mustered all crew on the bridge while waiting for a bunker barge to steal ship’s cargo. When the bunker barge arrived, the ship's crew were forced to prepare the fenders for the vessel to come alongside. After stealing the cargo the pirates locked the crew in the Master's cabin, damaged some of the navigational equipment, stole ship's cash, crew personal belongings, provisions, bonded store and electronics items and then left the tanker on 05.10.2012 in the early morning hours. All crew are safe apart from some physical injuries.

05.10.2012: 2330 LT: Posn: 05:12.56N – 004:03.68E, 3nm South of Abidjan Port Anchorage, Ivory Coast.

Around 14 pirates armed with AK47 and knives boarded and hijacked an anchored tanker. They damaged the ship's communication equipment and sailed the tanker to an unknown location where part of the cargo was transferred into another vessel. Prior to leaving the vessel on 09.10.2012 the pirates stole crew personal belongings and cash.

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10.10.2012 : 1210 UTC : Posn: 00:31N - 050:37E, Around 320nm east of Mogadishu, Somalia. A Skiff with six to eight pirates onboard approached and fired upon a fishing vessel at high speed. The onboard security team returned fire resulting in the skiff aborting and moving away. All crew safe.

15.10.2012: 1130 UTC: 03:39N – 006:14E: Around 40 Nm South of Brass, Nigeria. Seven armed pirates boarded an anchor handling tug underway via a speedboat launched from a mother vessel. They stole crew personal effects kidnapped seven crew members and escaped. Remaining crew safe onboard vessel.

On 01.11.2012 the kidnapped crew men were released after negotiations.

15.10.2012.: Kudawella, around 50 nm off the Hambantota Coast, Sri Lanka. Ten armed pirates in a fiberglass dinghy boarded fishing vessel THEJAN PUTHA reportedly with permission from the captain.

The pirates, armed with swords, then tied the hands of four crewmembers behind their backs and threw them overboard. Another crewmember jumped off the vessel before he could be subdued. Three of the crewmembers reportedly have died and the remaining two were rescued by merchant vessels in the area. This incident was related to illegal immigration to Australia where likely the Master and his customers could not agree on conditions of travel. This incident is to be viewed as local dispute and should not be considered as a threat to merchant shipping past Galle port. The illegal immigration off Sri Lanka to Australia is reportedly usual business and disagreements can happen.

19.10.2012: 08:52 N – 050:28 E: Approximately 60 nm north-east of Eyl, Somalia. Fishing vessel hijacked. On Saturday, 20 October 2012, the EU Naval Force (EU NAVFOR) German frigate FGS SACHSEN located a dhow after receiving a distress signal, saved 20 Iranian sailors, detained seven suspected pirates, and several assault rifles AK47, as well a Rocket Propelled Grenade Launcher (RPG) were confiscated. .

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Weather Forecast for 31 – 07 November (Office of Naval Intelligence) GULF OF ADEN: East-northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet in the western section of the Gulf; with east-northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet in the eastern section of the Gulf.

EXTENDED FORECAST: East-northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet in the western section of the Gulf; with east-northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet in the eastern section of the Gulf.

SOMALI COAST: Northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet north of 5 degrees North. Southeasterly winds of 10 -15 knots, gusting to 20 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet south of 5 degrees North.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots, gusting to 20 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet north of 5 degrees North. Southeasterly winds of 10 -15 knots, gusting to 20 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet south of 5 degrees North.

ARABIAN SEA: Northeasterly winds of 5 -10 knots and seas of 2 - 4 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: North-northeasterly winds of 5 – 10 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet.

CENTRAL AFRICAN COAST/INDIAN OCEAN: Southeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 3 - 5 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: East-southeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet.

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Northeasterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet in the northern Channel; with southwesterly winds of 15 – 20 knots, gusting to 25 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet in the southern Channel.

EXTENDED FORECAST: East-northeasterly winds of 5 – 10 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet In the northern Channel; with southerly winds of 15 – 20 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet the southern Channel.

SURFACE CURRENTS: The northern waters of the Arabian Sea and the Mozambique Channel currents are 5-7 knots. Water current speeds along the Somali Basin average between 3 and 5 knots, while currents in most of the Gulf of Aden have an average speed of 1 to 3 knots.

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Red areas – higher risks of pirate attacks due favorable weather conditions:

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Summary and Recommendations 

There are signs that Somalis are resenting the pirates and placing their hopes in a new central government. The communities are getting fed up with the pirates, and expel them from their communities so they have to look for other places to hide. But without substantial change in Somalia, the danger of piracy is always there. If security measures are rescinded it would be very easy for pirate syndicates to resume their activity to similar levels of recent years. Therefore the current security settings on board of merchant vessels should likely be maintained for years to come.

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The hijacking incident near Sri Lanka should not be taken as an extension of threat to the vessels passing Sri Lanka. The incident was local in every meaning. Seems that the Master of illegal human trafficking vessel could not settle disputes with his clients but the clients seemed to have better “arguments.”

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Meanwhile the piracy on the West African waters is increasingly and violently rising. As the pirates there used to aim for oil on tankers then the current hijacking of seven crew members’ for ransom seems as a shift of focus. The sums paid for freedom are unknown for public but logical deductions suggest that if the ransoms paid for hijacked crew members will exceed the stolen oil revenues then the focus of the criminals will for sure shift more to kidnapping of people. There is about time to pressurize the coastal states to allow good maritime security companies to protect the crew members and vessels in their waters. The protection and policing by their own forces is simply not effective enough.

Sources: IMB, ICC, NATO, AP, Reuters, Guardian, gCaptain, Hiru News, Office of Naval Intelligence, Delfi

We wish you safe voyages!

Alphard Maritime Security team info@alphardmaritime.eu www.alphardmaritime.eu Our reports can also be viewed: http://www.alphardmaritime.eu/blog/

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