Risk assessment sep12

Piracy situation risk assessment, September 2012, Issue 5 Highlights of the past month 

Last month on Indian Ocean region has seen non-existent pirate activity. There have been no serious incidents reported. Nearby Nigeria a deadly attack to the guarded vessel was successfully executed by criminals. One tanker was captured and was held by pirates for three days.

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Somali pirates are not likely wasting time while idle due high waves and winds on seas.

The developments can be seen on pirates’ improved paperwork. Namely, at least one of the groups, Pirate Action Group, communicates with the owners of captured vessels on business like paperwork. The papers are having a letterhead, stylish message and eventually are signed and sealed by the commander Jamal Faahiye Culusow.

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In beginning of August the President of Somalia offered an amnesty to the nearly 2000 assumed pirates of Somalia if they release hostages and return captured vessels to their owners.

Latest attacks (ICC Live Piracy Reports) 28.08.2012: early morning 17 miles (27 kilometers) off the Togo capital of Lome pirates hijacked a Greek-owned oil tanker ENERGY CENTURION with 24 crew on board and carrying gas oil. The tanker was pursued by the Togolese navy and evaded capture by entering waters off Benin.

There was also gunfire exchange between Navy and pirates. Estimation is that pirates are intending to steal the $54 million worth cargo. 30 August, the ship was released.

21.08.2012: 0230 UTC: Posn: 09:15.9N – 013:58.3W, Around 23nm SW of Conakry Port, Guinea.

Seven armed robbers in a fast boat approached an anchored general cargo ship during heavy rain. Six robbers boarded the vessel and entered the bridge by firing at and breaking the bridge windows. They took hostage the electrical officer, second officer and third officer, tied their hands and took them to the Masters cabin. They then ransacked the Masters, Chief Eng, 2/Mate, 3/Mate and 2nd Eng cabins, stole cash and other valuable belongings and escaped in their waiting boat. 3/Mate received slight injuries on the face when he was hit during the incident. The Master contacted Conakry port control but no response received.

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03.08.2012: 2220 LT: Posn: 03:46N – 006:40E, Around 45nm SW of Bonny Island, Nigeria. Pirates armed with AK 47 approached and boarded an anchored accommodation barge. They opened fire on the vessel. Two naval personnel killed and two naval personnel injured. The pirates stole vessels property and cash and kidnapped 4 crew members before escaping. Incident was reported to Nigerian Navy and Bonny Station. Naval personnel were deployed to secure the barge. Negotiations in progress for the safe release of the 4 kidnapped crew members.

Weather Forecast for 29 August - 5 September (Office of Naval Intelligence) GULF OF ADEN: West-southwesterly winds of 11 – 15 knots and seas of 2 – 4 feet in the western portion, and west-southwesterly winds of 10 – 14 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet in the while in the eastern portion.

EXTENDED FORECAST: West-northwesterly winds of 8 – 12 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet, abating to 3 – 5 feet, in the western portion. In the eastern portion, west-southwesterly winds of 10 – 14 knots, gusting to 21 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet.

SOMALI COAST: Southwesterly winds of 21 – 25 knots and seas of 10 – 12 feet north of 5 degrees North. South-southwesterly winds of 13 – 17 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet south of 5 degrees North.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Southwesterly winds of 23 – 27 knots and seas of 10 – 12 feet north of 5 degrees North. South-southwesterly winds of 16 – 20 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet south of 5 degrees North.

ARABIAN SEA: Southwesterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 7 - 9 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Southwesterly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 6 - 8 feet.

CENTRAL AFRICAN COAST/INDIAN OCEAN: South-southeasterly winds of 15 – 20 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: South-southeasterly winds of 15 – 20 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: South-southeasterly winds of 8 – 10 knots and seas of 3 – 5 feet in the northern section of the channel. In the southern channel, south-southeasterly winds of 10 – 12 knots and seas of 7 – 9 feet.

EXTENDED FORECAST: South-southeasterly winds of 8 – 12 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet. In the southern channel, south-southeasterly winds of 12 – 15 knots and seas of 5 – 7 feet.

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SURFACE CURRENTS: The Northern Arabian Sea and the Mozambique Channel currents are variable with most areas having average speeds of less than 1 knot, except for an area at the mouth of the Mozambique Channel where there is a current south of 10 degrees South of approximately 2 knots. Currents speeds along the Somali basin average fewer than 2 knots with an area just north of 5 degrees North averaging above 4 knots. Currents in most of the Gulf of Aden are variable with an average speed of less than 1 knot, except for central Gulf of Aden where it averages approximately 2 – 3 knots.

Red areas – higher risks of pirate attacks due favorable weather conditions:

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Summary and Recommendations 

The monsoon is still hindering the pirate activity. However, this is likely to change soon as the monsoon period is about to end. Most likely the pirates have used the break to organize better and are about to bring out some surprises. There is evidence that at least in paperwork they have had great developments (letterheads and seals) that is likely indicating smarter people joining their force. In the sense it indicates smarter approach that could improve their future operations capability as well.

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The successful attack nearby Nigeria to the accommodation barge, where two Nigerian Naval soldiers were killed and two wounded, is a warring sign in few aspects. Firstly it shows the rising boldness of local pirates and their readiness to challenge armed guards on vessels. Second, it raises some questions on the professionalism of the Nigerian Navy guards who are the only ones allowed to carry firearms on those protection missions in that region. There were six armed guards and the fact that they were over run indicates the lack of awareness on situation. There is always a tactical high ground on the vessel and with six armed guards, disciplined watch, and proper preparations the attack should had been repelled. Maybe there is a time to more seriously request the foreign origin security companies to be allowed to operate on vessels in the region. Last but not least, the guidelines of BMP should be implemented to all the vessels operating in West Africa region with the same care as for vessels passing the Indian Ocean. Safety comes first!

The attacked accommodation barge Jascon 33.

Sources: IMB, ICC, The Telegraph, Reuters, Times of Oman, Foreign Policy, Somalia Report, gCaptain, Office of Naval Intelligence etc.

We wish you safe voyages!

Alphard Maritime Security team info@alphardmaritime.eu www.alphardmaritime.eu Our reports can also be viewed: http://www.alphardmaritime.eu/blog/ 4/4