African Journal of Business Management - 14 January 2013 Issue by Academic Journals

African Journal of

Business Management Volume 7 Number 2 14 January, 2013 ISSN 1993-8233

ABOUT AJBM The African Journal of Business Management (AJBM) is published weekly (one volume per year) by Academic Journals. African Journal of Business Management (AJBM) is an open access journal that publishes research analysis and inquiry into issues of importance to the business community. Articles in AJBM examine emerging trends and concerns in the areas of general management, business law, public responsibility and ethics, marketing theory and applications, business finance and investment, general business research, business and economics education, production/operations management, organizational behaviour and theory, strategic management policy, social issues and public policy, management organization, statistics and econometrics, personnel and industrial relations, technology and innovation, case studies, and management information systems. The goal of AJBM is to broaden the knowledge of business professionals and academicians by promoting free access and providing valuable insight to business-related information, research and ideas. AJBM is a weekly publication and all articles are peer-reviewed.

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Editors Prof. Wilfred Isioma Ukpere Department of Industrial Psychology and People Management, Faculty of Management, University of Johannesburg, South Africa. Prof. Gazi Mahabubul Alam Department of Educational Management, Planning and Policy, Faculty of Education Building, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Dr. Olawale Olufunso Fatoki University of Fort Hare Department of Business Management, University of Fort Hare, x1314, Alice, 5700, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Dr. Amran Awang Faculty of Business Management, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia Dr. Giurca Vasilescu Laura University of Craiova, Romania 13, A.I. Cuza, 200585, Craiova, Dolj, Romania. Prof. Himanshu Tandon VIT Business School, VIT University, Vellore 632014 (India) Dr. Ilse Botha University of Johannesburg APK Campus PO Box 524 Aucklandpark 2006 South Africa. Dr. Howard Qi Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Dr., Houghton, MI 49931, U.S.A. Dr. Aktham AlMaghaireh United Arab Emirates University Department of Economics & Finance United Arab Emirates. Dr. Haretsebe Manwa University of Botswana Faculty of Business University of Botswana P.O. Box UB 70478 Gaborone Botswana.

Dr. Reza Gharoie Ahangar Islamic Azad University of Babol, Iran Dr. Sérgio Dominique Ferreira Polytechnic Institute of Cavado and Ave Campus IPCA, Lugar do Aldão, 4750-810. Vila Frescainha, Portugal. Dr. Ravinder Rena Polytechnic of Namibia, Private Bag:13388 Harold Pupkewitz Graduate School of Business; Windhoek, Namibia. Dr. Shun-Chung Lee Taiwan Institute of Economic Research No. 16-8, Dehuei Street, Jhongshan District, Taipei City 104, Taiwan. Dr. Kuo-Chung Chu National Taipei University of Nursing and Health Sciences No. 365, Min-Te Road, Taipei, Taiwan. Dr. Gregory J. Davids University of the Western Cape Private Bag x17, Bellville 7535, South Africa. Prof. Victor Dragotă Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Department of Finance Bucharest, Sector 1, Piata Romana no. 6, Room 1104, Romania Dr. Ling-Yun HE College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University (East Campus), Qinghua Donglu street, Haidian district, Beijing 100083, China Dr. Maurice Oscar Dassah School of Management, IT and Governance University of KwaZulu-Natal Post Office Box X54001 Durban 4000 South Africa

Editorial Board Dr. Peide Liu Business Administration School, Shandong Economic University, China Dr. Marwan Mustafa Shammot King Saud University, P.O.Box 28095 , Riyadh 11437 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Dr. Mario Javier Donate-Manzanares Facultad de Derecho y Ciencias Sociales Ronda de Toledo, s/n 13071 Ciudad Real Spain Dr. Mohamed Abd El Naby Mohamed Sallam Faculty of Commerce University of Kafr El-Sheikh Egypt

Dr. Hela Miniaoui University of Wollongong in Dubai, Knowledge Village, Block 15 PoBox 20183,Dubai UAE Dr. Suhanya Aravamudhan 6965 Cumberland Gap Pkwy, Harrogate, TN USA

Dr. Guowei Hua NO. 3 Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing 100044, School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, China.

Dr. Hooman Attar Amirkabir University of Technology Iran Prof. Luis Antonio Fonseca Mendes University of Beira Interior – Business and Economics Department Estrada do Sineiro – Polo IV – 6200-209 Covilhã Portugal

Dr. Mehdi Toloo No. 136, Forsate Shirazi st., Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, P. O. Box 13185.768. Iran. Dr. Surendar Singh Department of Management Studies, Invertis University Invertis village, Bareilly - Lucknow Highway, N.H.-24, Bareilly (U.P.) 243 123 India.

Dr. Wu, Hung-Yi Department of Business Administration Graduate Institute of Business Administration National Chiayi University No.580, Xinmin Rd., Chiayi City 60054, Taiwan (R.O.C.)

Dr. Nebojsa Pavlovic High school “Djura Jaksic” Trska bb, 34210 Raca, Serbia.

Dr. Shu-Fang Luo No.28, Da-Ye S. Road, Lin-Hai Industrial Park, Hsiao-Kang, 812, Kaohsiung City Taiwan

Dr. Colin J. Butler University of Greenwich Business School, University of Greenwich, Greenwich, SE10 9LS, London, UK.

Dr. Ahmad.M.A.Ahmad Zamil King Saud University, P.O.Box 28095 , Riyadh 11437 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Dr. Paloma Bernal Turnes Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Dpto. Economía de la Empresa Pº de los Artilleros s/n Edif. Departamental, Desp. 2101 28032 Madrid, España

Prof. Dev Tewari School of Economics and Finance Westville Campus University of Kwa-Zulu Natal (UKZN) Durban, 4001 South Africa. Dr. Olof Wahlberg Mid Sweden University, 851 70 Sundsvall Sweden

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African Journal of Business Management Table of Contents:

Volume 7

Number 2

14 January, 2013

ARTICLES Review

Mobile technology interaction to e-Commerce in promising of u-Commerce George S. Oreku

Research Articles Towards sustainable green ship technology O. Sulaiman, A. H. Saharuddin, and A. S. A. Kader Research on management decision and evaluation system based on parallel management Long Yun-An and Zhao Xuefeng Global banking survey: A new era of customer satisfaction with reference to India

119

125

S. Suriyamurthi, V. Mahalakshmi and M. Arivazhagan University experts’ knowledge acquisition: Investigating knowledge engineering system approach Sana'a Abdul Karim Al –Khanak

135

Assessment Criteria: Exploring the missing perspectives of Management Development Programme Participants as Learners in South Africa MacDonald Kanyangale

144

Development adventure of Turkey and its potential rivals in the period of 2001-2010: A comparative multivariate analysis Neslihan Arslan and Hüseyin Tatlidil

154

Review

Mobile technology interaction to e-Commerce in promising of u-Commerce George S. Oreku Research Development, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Information Technology, North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, P. O. Box 1174, Vanderbijlpark 1900, Gauteng, South Africa. E-mail: george.oreku@gmail.com. Accepted 7 November, 2012

Mobile technology interaction is gaining increasing acceptance. The need for mobility is a primary driving force behind mobile banking, mobile entertainment and mobile marketing, and is supported by an ever increasing convergence of computers and mobile telecommunication devices. This article examines the conceptual background and existing experience of another wave of change that provides the ultimate form of ubiquitous networks and universal devices. It presents understanding of another form of commerce, a form that goes over above and beyond traditional commerce, simply "ucommerce”, in order to make consumers and service-providers aware of new business opportunities arising out of this convergence. Key words: Knowledge management, mobile technology, unified communication, U-commerce. INTRODUCTION After the emergence of E-Commerce in the late 90′s, we reached a new milestone in the evolution of how goods and services are exchanged between producer and consumer. Businesses all over the world need to be ready for the next big step, a full integration of traditional commerce, E-commerce, mobile commerce and even television commerce. Mobile commerce, also known as M-Commerce is the ability to conduct commerce using a mobile device, such as a mobile phone, a PDA (personal digital assistant), or using other emerging mobile equipment such as dashtop mobile devices and smartphone. However mobile commerce has been defined differently with different authors but according to Tiwari and Buse (2007), they have defined mobile commerce as any transaction involving the transfer of ownership or rights to use goods and services, which is initiated and/or completed by using mobile access to computer-mediated networks with the help of an electronic device. According to comScore, up to November 2011, 38% of smartphone owners have used their phone to make a purchase at least once. The convergence of industry, technology and communications has plunged us into a dynamic economic environment. New E-Commerce and mobile commerce capabilities are bringing us closer together and

empowering individuals as never before. These changes are heralding the emergence of “U-commerce” – universal or ubiquitous commerce, where the traditional barriers of time, geography, currency and access have ceased to exist. Mobile technology is faced with the pressing issue of managing the access to, the demand for, and the concerns about sharing information. Barely before Internet-facilitated E-Commerce has begun to take hold, a new wave of technology-driven commerce has started mobile (m-) commerce. Fuelled by the increasing saturation of mobile technology, such as phones and PDAs, m-Commerce promises to inject considerable change into the way certain activities are conducted. Some issues are becoming more complex like video creation and sharing rapidly move to higher bandwidth and mobile platforms. With a focus on unified communications capabilities, firms are trying to deal with how to best present and position their products and services in a world where video access and sharing are becoming pervasive. We however, reports from a primarily business application oriented aspect in particular E-Commerce and mobile technology to the promising future of U-commerce. Equipped with microbrowsers and other mobile applications, the new range of mobile technologies offer the internet ‘in your pocket’ for

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which the consumer possibilities are endless, including banking, booking or buying tickets, shopping and realtime news. Drawing on some of the key factors that may influence the take-up of M-Commerce including technological and other issues the chapter also provides predictions regarding outcome of all these as future “Ucommerce”. The rise of mobile technology in video and the organizational responses to it are examined within the theoretical contexts of its applications. U-Commerce is not a trend that will occur some time far off in the future. It is a real-time change that is happening today. U-Commerce is the natural evolution of E-Commerce and mobile commerce from “point of sale” to “point of convenience” whether a transaction occurs in a store, in your home, on the street or even on an airplane. The way that consumers access the internet and shop online is changing. Desktop computers, laptops, mobile internet devices, and mobile phones are converging into a larger category of Internet enabled devices. Millions of new users and new shoppers comes online daily. By way of example, last year eMarketer estimated that by 2013 74.9% of all Canadians would be internet users. Put another way, essentially every Canadian between the age of 5 and 65 will have web access within a few years. In the U.S. there were an estimated 234.4 million internet users at the end of last year or about 76.3% of the total population. Meanwhile, TechCrunch has reported that mobile internet use in North America grew 110% in 2009 according to Quantcast. That number would be impressive except it trails worldwide mobile internet growth, which was pegged at 148% in 2009. The rest of the paper is organized as follow; UCommerce concept is discussed. Mobile technology integrations to commercial applications specifically focusing on U-commerce, and promising issues concerning U-Commerce are presented. Our critical analysis on mobile and E-Commerce use situation are discussed. Finally, the paper is concluded. UNDERSTANDING - U-COMMERCE Geographic Commerce

Electronic Commerce

Mobile Commerce

U-Commerce

U-Commerce or universal commerce covers these newly arising opportunities and challenges that companies are facing by defining four fundamental constructs: ubiquity, uniqueness, universality, and unison. - Ubiquity allows users to access networks from anywhere at any time, and in turn, to be reachable at any place and any time. - Uniqueness allows users to be uniquely identified not only in terms of their identity and associated preferences, but also in terms of their geographical position.

- Universality means mobile devices are universally usable and multi-functional. Currently, for instance, U.S. cell phones are unlikely to work in Europe because of different standards and network frequencies, and vice versa. - Unison covers the idea of integrated data across multiple applications so that users have a consistent view on their information-irrespective of the device used. Thus, we define U-Commerce as "the use of ubiquitous networks to support personalized and uninterrupted communications and transactions between a firm and its various stakeholders to provide a level of value over, above, and beyond traditional commerce" (Watson et al., 2002). In the past few years, E-Commerce has joined the vocabulary of many languages. Many organizations talk of “I-commerce” or the use of intranet technologies (internal corporate internets) to pursue internal marketing strategies. Already, m-Commerce (mobile commerce) is gaining currency as cell phone owners acquire access to mobile services such as Delta Airlines’ arrival and departure information service for mobile phones and PDAs. Marketing practitioners will be very concerned with the impacts that these technologies will have on their organizations and on their relationships with customers. Marketing scholars will need to study how these technologies will affect the discipline to determine whether existing theories will explain the phenomena adequately or whether new theories will be needed. Likewise, marketing teachers will want to keep their students at all levels abreast of events and developments, for they will be better equipped to deal with turbulent work environments if they at least have a point of view where we are ultimately headed. We believe that in the next few years, we will see the emergence of a multifaceted u-commerce, where the u stands for ubiquitous, universal, unique, and unison. We can think of it as Über-commerce - over, above, and beyond traditional commerce. Thus, we define uCommerce as the use of ubiquitous networks to support personalized and uninterrupted communications and transactions between a firm and its various stakeholders to provide a level of value over, above, and beyond traditional commerce. U-Commerce plays a key role in the long-term vision for the payments industry and integrating business anywhere. It is built on several global phenomena that will only accelerate as we go forward. Developments in mobile technology and information management technologies have resulted in efficiency division such as: V-commerce: - Using voice commands to do Transactions, P - commerce: - Proximity commerce uses bluetooth or infrared technology and so on. E-commerce: - Most popular, doing transaction on internet conducting business online. Selling goods, in the traditional sense, is possible to do electronically because of certain software programs that run the main functions of an E-Commerce

Oreku

website, including product display, online ordering, and inventory management. The software resides on a commerce server and works in conjunction with online payment systems to process payments. Since these servers and data lines make up the backbone of the Internet, in a broad sense, e-Commerce means doing business over interconnected networks. The definition of e-Commerce includes business activities that are business-to-business (B2B), business-to-consumer (B2C), extended enterprise computing (also known as "newly emerging value chains"), d-commerce, and m-commerce. E-Commerce is a major factor in the U.S. economy because it assists companies with many levels of current business transactions, as well as creating new online business opportunities that are global in nature. M-commerce: - Business transactions through mobile. M-Commerce (mobile commerce) is the buying and selling of goods and services through wireless handheld devices such as cellular telephone (PDAs). Known as next-generation e-commerce, m-Commerce enables users to access the internet without needing to find a place to plug in. The emerging technology behind mcommerce, which is based on the wireless application protocol (WAP), has made far greater strides in Europe, where mobile devices equipped with web-ready microbrowsers are much more common than in the United T commerce: - Use Television set - top box to do commercial transactions \ T-commerce encompasses all revenues that are generated through the television set. It allows the purchase of goods and services that are seen on the TV set. It is a subset of interactive TV. According to this definition, T-commerce comprises the following sub-markets: That is TV shopping, direct response TV, Travel shopping, Interactive TV applications. The defined terminologies (u-Commerce, m-Commerce and t-Commerce) have a higher payoff in the form of more efficient processes, lower costs and potentially greater profits. They both address these processes, as well as a technology infrastructure of databases, application servers, security tools, systems management and legacy systems. And both involve the creation of new value chains between a company and its customers and suppliers, as well as within the company itself. However they do have differences whereby mobile commerce main purpose is to do both financial and promotional activities, e-Commerce involves in online shopping to do only financial activities within the help of internet. Similarly, it is different from u-Commerce which is fully integrated with the content management system which enables one to create beautifully designed stores, and enabling also the back office capabilities to configure and customize the store of one’s liking. MOBILE APPLICATION AND EARLY U-COMMERCE INDICATORS The first mobile commerce discussion was held at the

University of Oxford in 2003, with Tomi Ahonen and Steve Jones lecturing. As of 2008, UCL Computer Science and Peter J. Bentley demonstrated the potential for medical applications on mobile devices. Ahonen and Jones (2003). Since the launch of the iPhone, mobile commerce has moved away from SMS systems and into actual applications. SMS has significant security vulnerabilities and congestion problems, even though it is widely available and accessible. The applications have been extended to Mobile ticketing technology where mobile are being used for the distribution of vouchers, coupons, and loyalty cards. These items are represented by a virtual token that is sent to the mobile phone. Stores may send coupons to customers using location-based services to determine when the customer is nearby; this can be sited from www.mobilestarterstore.com The reinvention of the mobile phone as a touch sensitive handheld computer has for the first time made mobile commerce practically feasible. 'According to ABI Research, mobile is going to get a lot bigger in the ecommerce market. The research firm is predicting that in 2015, $119bn worth of goods and services will be purchased via a mobile phone.' Mobile devices are heavily used in South Korea to conduct mobile commerce. Mobile companies in South Korea believed that mobile technology would become synonymous with youth life style, based on their experience with previous generations of South Koreans. "Profitability for device vendors and carriers hinges on high-end mobile devices and the accompanying killer applications (Harden, 2012). In California, Illinois and other states in the U.S., transit agencies are distributing electronic bridge toll devices (which leverage credit and debit payment functions) and have the ability to be used in other “proximity” environments, such as service stations or fast-food drivethrough. Individually, these are all powerful and innovative examples of new ways to pay and new ways to leverage payments. But they are just early steps in realizing the full potential of u-commerce. U-commerce, by definition, implies the continued existence of traditional payment forms such as cash and checks, which may always exist. But in the u-Commerce environment, cash and checks will become increasingly marginalized because they provide diminished value and utility. It is also important to note that in the world of ucommerce, “traditional” credit and debit card payments (face-to-face transactions at point-of-sale) will always play a dominant role. There is still huge growth potential for traditional credit and debit products worldwide, particularly in emerging markets. Extending the scope and scale of these core payment products, in addition to the development of new products and channels, is part of the u-Commerce growth equation. We believe there are tremendous benefits from u-Commerce for individual buyers and sellers. But we

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believe there are also significant macroeconomic benefits. Payments are the lifeblood of economies. By facilitating the exchange of goods and services, they enable the different components of an economy to interact with one another. Removing friction from this process which u-Commerce is all about – can help economies to operate more fluidly and efficiently. Sensemaking depends upon the ability to find relevant reference resources. For media this means providing knowledge management mechanisms that provide efficient search and retrieval of relevant content. Video files, including employee-generated videos, must be cataloged and indexed so that employees can use enterprise and/or mobile search engines to ask for and secure video content meeting user-specified criteria. This means that sensemaking requires providing the capability for retrieving a list of enterprise videos that match user search criteria and which is sorted with respect to some measure of relevance. Use of search engines may provide a secondary benefit of promoting greater access to enterprise video content and increased viewing activity. For example, when YouTube videos was acquired by Google and then subsequently included on the Google Video Search Index, YouTube’s site visits rose immediately by 18.5% (Tancer, 2007). Image and video content upload systems typically rely on simple techniques like asking the user to file the image under a category, or to click a set of checkboxes of descriptive tags, or to type in a one-sentence description that can later be automatically parsed by the system to generate detailed metadata. These requests for metadata can overburden users when they are uploading megabytes of images and video information. However, innovative approaches are emerging to improve this process. Google, for example, has created Google Image Labeler that automatically pairs video content users and asks them to add as many labels to as many images as possible in a 90-second period. The more images and labels that are added, the more point the participants receive and the site lists that day’s and the all-time top-point winners. There is no prize except the satisfaction that you are helping Google deliver more relevant search results. However, as more users capture and share cellphone images at low cost, the potential for new and innovative search labeling services becomes essential. According to study done by Nokia, it was estimated that cameraphones will be able to capture 100 billion images by the year 2011 alone (Pepus, 2007). This fact argues that if a company is participating in this market as a manufacturer, a service provider, or a content supplier, contentbased image and video search capabilities should be made more efficient. To that end PiXlogic has developed the most advanced commercially available enterprise search engines for images and videos. It is based on automatic indexing of the contents of the image, without the need for any

manually input textual metadata. PiXlogic uses a concept called “notions” that are interpreted understandings about the context of the image and the objects in it and it has created a contextually rich and accurate search environment that exploits this. To catalog a repository of images or videos, the user points PiXlogic’s piXserve application software to that repository (or uses a web crawler to collect images) and it automatically indexes the content of those files. Through a browser, users can then search using an image and/or point to one or more items in the image that are of interest to them. The software can also see and recognize any text that may appear anywhere in the field of view of the image (for example, picking out names of recruitment candidates, knowledge videos and experts, and other online video resources). Where most image and video search technologies work by trying to match image signatures that are based on simple concepts such as textual labels, color histograms, texture, or edges, for example, piXserve “sees” the image as being composed of man objects, creates a representation describing the objects, and stores them in a database (Pepus, 2007). Internet audio and video streaming technology is getting more and more sophisticated. All you have to do is look around you and you will see people watching videos and listening to music with their I-pods, MP3 and MP4 players. Incidentally, the best sources for their audio and video needs can be found on the internet. So, imagine all the audio/video data streaming, downloading and uploading around in the internet, and you will have a good idea of just how measly a 10 s video is in terms of today’s technology. As discussed, the use of audio/video streaming on the internet is a powerful marketing tool. However, the technology for it has matured enough in that audio and video files use more space from storage devices such as hard drives and I-pods. Already, hard drives of computers have transcended the megabyte barrier and are now storing gigabytes, terabytes, petabyte, exabyte and zettabyte of data (one zettabyte = 10^21 or one sextillion bytes). In the context of mobile commerce, mobile marketing refers to marketing sent to mobile devices. Companies have reported that they see better response from mobile marketing campaigns than from traditional campaigns. Mobile campaigns must be based on the global content generation or what is called Generation C and four other 'C's: Creativity, Casual Collapse, Control, and Celebrity. A brief introduction... Creativity: let's face it, we're all creatives, if not artists! (Notice we didn't mean talented artists ;-). And as creativity normally leads to content, the link with GENERATION C is obvious. Which then brings us to Casual Collapse: the ongoing demise of many beliefs, rituals, formal requirements and laws modern societies have held dear, which continue to 'collapse' without causing the apocalyptic aftermath often predicted by conservative minds. From women's rights to gay

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marriage to not wearing a tie to work if you don't feel like it (http://youpark.com/) Research demonstrates that consumers of mobile and wireline markets represent two distinct groups who are driven by different values and behaviors, and who exhibit dissimilar psychographic and demographic profiles (Schejter et al., 2010). As a result, successful mobile commerce requires the development of marketing campaigns targeted to this particular market segment. THE PROMISING U-COMMERCE Newer technologies, empowered customers, and highly competitive market place make it imperative for businesses to invest into ways of improving the overall business performance. "The internet has introduced a significant wave of change. We expect – indeed, it seems virtually certain – that these new network resources will, especially in combination, stimulate a new generation of personalized applications and services. These massively joined technologies will form “dynamic ecosystems”, immersed in computerized ambient environments, and growing and adapting themselves to the evolving needs of individual users and communities. A 4G system is expected to provide a comprehensive and secure all-IP based mobile broadband solution to laptop computer wireless modems, smartphones, and other mobile devices. Facilities such as ultra-broadband internet access, IP telephony, gaming services, and streamed multimedia may be provided to users. IMTAdvanced compliant versions of LTE and WiMAX are under development and called "LTE Advanced" and "WirelessMAN-Advanced" respectively. ITU has decided that LTE Advanced and WirelessMAN-Advanced should be accorded the official designation of IMT-Advanced. On December 6, 2010, ITU recognized that current versions of LTE, WiMax and other evolved 3G technologies that do not fulfill "IMT-Advanced" requirements could nevertheless be considered "4G", provided they represent forerunners to IMT-Advanced and "a substantial level of improvement in performance and capabilities with respect to the initial third generation systems now deployed (ITU, 2010). Our communication patterns have changed. We have become dependent on email. We interact with firms via web sites, e-Commerce for example, plays a catalytic role in poverty alleviation to some places where well applied and manage by enormous quantities of business information that are generated in the internet for modeling the living (Bourguignon, 2003; GoT, 2001; IMF, 2004). The World Development Report (2000/01): Attacking poverty identifies three priority areas for reducing poverty: increasing opportunity, enhancing empowerment, and improving people’s life (http://web.worldbank.org). Opportunity makes markets work for the poor and expands poor people’s assets. Empowerment and technology makes

state institutions work better for poor people and removes social barriers. The next wave introduced through wireless technology is about to change our lives even more. The increase in transmission capacity of wireless devices lays the foundation for communication unrestricted by physical locations. We can surf the internet decoupled from landline computers. The emergence and evolution of eCommerce has proved to be a highly successful and profitable venture for companies of different sizes and origin. We are now shifted to do business in virtual space rather only proving ourselves in geographical space (Jay, 2004). The new technologies will have significant effects in our lives and this will definitely lead to a re-defining a lot of what we call today general concepts. For example, the whole issue of who is a buyer and seller may change. The projection indicates that STAMFORD, Conn., November 18, 2009, Gartner, Inc. has identified the top 10 consumer mobile applications for 2012 (Pettey and Stevens, 2012). Gartner listed applications based on their impact on consumers and industry players, considering revenue, loyalty, business model, consumer value and estimated market penetration. These included;

No. 1: Money transfer This service allows people to send money to others using Short Message Service (SMS). Its lower costs, faster speed and convenience compared with traditional transfer services have strong appeal to users in developing markets, and most services signed up several million users within their first year.

No. 2: Location-based services Location-based services (LBS) form part of contextaware services, a service that Gartner expects will be one of the most disruptive in the next few years. Gartner predicts that the LBS user base will grow globally from 96 million in 2009 to more than 526 million in 2012. LBS is ranked No. 2 in Gartner’s top 10 because of its perceived high user value and its influence on user loyalty.

No. 3: Mobile search The ultimate purpose of mobile search is to drive sales and marketing opportunities on the mobile phone. To achieve this, the industry first needs to improve the user experience of mobile search so that people will come back again. Mobile search is ranked No. 3 because of its high impact on technology innovation and industry revenue.

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No. 4: Mobile browsing Mobile browsing is a widely available technology present on more than 60% of handsets shipped in 2009, a percentage Gartner expects to rise to approximately 80% in 2013. Gartner has ranked mobile browsing No. 4 because of its broad appeal to all businesses. Mobile Web systems have the potential to offer a good return on investment. No. 5: Mobile health monitoring Mobile health monitoring is the use of IT and mobile telecommunications to monitor patients remotely, and could help governments, care delivery organizations (CDOs) and healthcare payers reduce costs related to chronic diseases and improve the quality of life of their patients. In developing markets, the mobility aspect is key as mobile network coverage is superior to fixed network in the majority of developing countries. Currently, mobile health monitoring is at an early stage of market maturity and implementation, and project rollouts have so far been limited to pilot projects. No. 6: Mobile payment Mobile payment usually serves three purposes. First, it is a way of making payment when few alternatives are available. Second, it is an extension of online payment for easy access and convenience. Third, it is an additional factor of authentication for enhanced security. Mobile payment made Gartner’s top 10 list because of the number of parties it affects including mobile carriers, banks, merchants, device vendors, regulators and consumers and the rising interest from both developing and developed markets. Because of the many choices of technologies and business models, as well as regulatory requirements and local conditions, mobile payment will be a highly fragmented market. There will not be standard practices of deployment, so parties will need to find a working solution on a case-by-case basis. No. 7: Near field communication services Near field communication (NFC) allows contactless data transfer between compatible devices by placing them close to each other, within ten centimeters. The technology can be used, for example, for retail purchases, transportation, personal identification and loyalty cards. NFC is ranked No. 7 in Gartner’s top ten because it can increase user loyalty for all service providers, and it will have a big impact on carriers' business models. However, its biggest challenge is reaching business agreement between mobile carriers and service providers, such as

banks and transportation companies. No. 8: Mobile advertising Mobile advertising in all regions is continuing to grow through the economic downturn, driven by interest from advertisers in this new opportunity and by the increased use of smartphones and the wireless internet. Total spending on mobile advertising in 2008 was $530.2 million, which Gartner expects will grow to $7.5 billion in 2012. Mobile advertising makes the top 10 list because it will be an important way to monetize content on the mobile internet, offering free applications and services to end users. The mobile channel will be used as part of larger advertising campaigns in various media, including TV, radio, print and outdoors. No. 9: Mobile instant messaging Price and usability problems have historically held back adoption of mobile instant messaging (IM), while commercial barriers and uncertain business models have precluded widespread carrier deployment and promotion. Mobile IM is on Gartner’s top 10 list because of latent user demand and market conditions that are conducive to its future adoption. It has a particular appeal to users in developing markets that may rely on mobile phones as their only connectivity device. Mobile IM presents an opportunity for mobile advertising and social networking, which have been built into some of the more advanced mobile IM clients. No. 10: Mobile music Mobile music so far has been disappointing - except for ring tones and ring-back tones, which have turned into a multibillion-dollar service. On the other hand, it is unfair to dismiss the value of mobile music, as consumers want music on their phones and to carry it around. We see efforts by various players in coming up with innovative models, such as device or service bundles, to address pricing and usability issues. iTunes makes people pay for music, which shows that a superior user experience does make a difference. “Consumer mobile applications and services are no longer the prerogative of mobile carriers,” said Sandy Shen, research director at Gartner. “The increasing consumer interest in smartphones, the participation of internet players in the mobile space, and the emergence of application stores and cross-industry services are reducing the dominance of mobile carriers. Each player will influence how the application is delivered and experienced by consumers, who ultimately vote with their

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attention and spending power.” “The ultimate competition between industry players is for control of the ‘ecosystem’ and user experience, and the owner of the ecosystem will benefit the most in terms of revenue and user loyalty,” Ms. Shen said. “We predict that most users will use no more than five mobile applications at a time and most future opportunities will come from niche market ‘killer applications’.” U-Commerce enables dramatic improvements in mpayment as well as in CRM processes. From Gartner’s list of application it is vividly proven that u-Commerce creates an economy that is more flexible, interconnected and more efficient. However from our finding uCommerce technology is already available in transition economies to countries in Africa (www.ystats.com/ uploads/report_abstracts/939.pdf). Major research issue is to which extend u-Commerce penetrated in these countries economy which will be the next step for our future research. Further research should also focus on enablers and drivers of u-Commerce adoption by African enterprises and public services providers. Another possible research avenue could be implementation of uCommerce applications in various marketing contexts. Therefore we hypothesized our finding as follows: H1: African countries large enterprises are familiar with uCommerce technologies. H2: African countries large enterprises are using uCommerce technologies as enabler in marketing and sales activities. H3: African countries large cities are implementing u-City concept. From the research presented u-Commerce is being implemented in services sector, particularly in travel, entertainment and tourism Industry in many African countries (www.ystats.com/uploads/report_abstracts/ 939.pdf?phpsessid). The findings considered the uCommerce as new distribution channel for financial services industry. There is growing enthusiasm about the increasing number of mobile phones in the developing world and the potential of the mobile platform in helping to address the needs of individuals and small businesses (UNCTAD, 2012). Unified communication Businesses are faced with a proliferation of communications tools and firms must find ways to link them. Rather than trying to maintain multiple separate communications channels, the goal is to integrate and manage e-mail, phone calls, instant messaging video conferencing and other forms of communication to allow workers to communicate more quickly and easily and to work faster even when they are mobile. Guth (2007) notes that in its simplest form, unification might allow a

user to click on a phone number in an e-mail to place a call from a PC. In its more advanced form, the technology might offer the ability to use a PC or cellular phone to determine if a person is online, on a cellphone or a desk phone, and to call them or launch a conference call by clicking on an icon or button. One key question about unified communication for organizations will be where best to apply the technology. Mobile workers and those who routinely need timely information from an assortment of others would appear to benefit most from this technology. Early adopters of unified communication include companies that are geographically dispersed or businesses that depend on rapid communication to compete such as financial institutions. However, unified communication may be less suited to those businesses where workers do not have to interact with a host of other people or who mainly interact with the same group (Guth, 2007). Since unified communications cross organizational boundaries they are complex in nature. They demand management that can navigate organizational politics, train people of diverse backgrounds, and deal with multiple vendors each of whom is supplying a subset of the technology infrastructure, applications, and channels. Unified communications can create regulatory issues because electronic attachments and mobile communications might need to be archived (for example, to meet Sarbanes-Oxley requirements). Unified communications are important because of the demand of workers and students for communication devices that minimize the need for channel-dependent hardware. Where cellphones, text messaging, and instant messaging eclipsed e-mail as the preferred means to communicate, video creation and exchange now provide another viable and potentially critical need for mobile users. The worldwide market for online video content grew tenfold by 2010, growing from about 13 million households during 2005 to more than 131 million households by 2010, becoming an $11 billion annual business by 2011 (Carvajal, 2007). Of all broadband households today, 12.8% are already regularly viewing professional content via online content aggregators. The number of broadband households is expected to double between 2005 and 2010, to more than 413 million. On See Me TV, a service offered by European provider 3, users can shoot video on the mobile phones, bypass video sites like YouTube, or Yahoo, and post them to a gallery where the videos can be watched by others on their phones. And to spur usage, people who contribute video clips get paid for it, getting 10% of the revenue generated when others download their clip. See Me TV and several services like it are among the first to offer cellphone users the same kind of interactive, selfgenerated content that is offered to PC users (Abboud, 2007). AT&T's Video Share allows its users to send live or

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recorded videos to others while they are talking to them on their cellphones. The one-way video streaming service is available on AT&T's high-speed 3G UMTS/HSDPA network. Two people can view a video when they are in a two-way cellular connection. Video Share is the first application for AT&T’s emerging internet protocol multimedia subsystem (IMS) platform, which will eventually be used as the vehicle for delivering IP services over wireless and wired network connections (Gardner, 2007). Demand for more social networking bandwidth will also push unified communications. Mobile users want access to entertaining sites such as YouTube, ifilm, MySpace, Vimeo, Eyespot, Jumpcut, Ourmedia, vSocial, Google video, Grouper, Revver, VideoEgg, and Yahoo! And as is the case with other mobile platforms having network access there will be supply and demand for substantive video content on cellular devices. FORA.tv, for example, delivers discourse, discussions and debates on political, social and cultural issues, and enables viewers to join the conversation. It provides deep, unfiltered content, tools for self-expression, and a place for the interactive community to gather online. Research Channel is a consortium of major universities that puts presentations by their top researchers on its web site, ResearchChannel.org. It has a video library of more than 3,000 titles with topics that include business and economics, computer science and engineering, health and medicine, and the sciences. Princeton University’s University Channel focuses on public and international affairs videos, while www.Research-TV.com emphasizes work at U.K. colleges and universities. There are niche-oriented “smart” video sites that focus on such topics as energy policy (for example, EnergyPolicy TV.com), technology, entertainment, business, science, and culture (for example, ted.com). Corporate personnel recruitment is another obvious opportunity for mobile cellular communications that will push the requirement for unified communications. Von Bergen (2007) notes that while job seekers have been putting videos online for some time employers are now taking the same route. Online videos are being created to recruit workers. Organizations realize that they can reach potential employees where they are, and younger job candidates prefer YouTube and sites like it. Many corporations have been delivering their own video content to potential recruits, employees, customers, or other important constituencies across time and place. What has become different and important now is getting the content moved to cellular devices. Companies can create and publish the videos themselves or outsource all or part of the process. Firms like uVuMobile, Inc. (uVuMobile.com) provide organizations with mobility software and services that offer content providers, carriers, and entertainment brands a full suite of products to deliver their video and audio content to mobile handsets. Companies like uVuMobile can provide

platforms that are seamlessly integrated with a robust set of applications supported by a suite of enablers that include mobile marketing, reporting, content aggregation, e-Commerce options, advertising and other professional services. Unique integrated solutions can be developed for mobile markets, providing scalable mobile technology to create and manage mobile initiatives, including hosting services, marketing, media solutions and mobile content distribution. There are a number of start-up companies that offer new ways for cellphone users to access internet video content previously controlled by their cellphone carrier. These companies allow users to view a wider array of internet video clips without a subscription and without having to use a specific phone model. Users of these services can view online videos on any standard video-enabled phone and the videos can be wirelessly downloaded to a handset for viewing later, or streamed over cellular networks to be viewed in real time. While the quality of the video content is rarely as crisp as users are accustomed to online, and viewing can be limited by the amount of storage on the phone, the services are generally free, powered by advertising, and independent of particular carriers. Several of the new companies offering these services (for example, Cellfish Media, MyWaves, and 3Guppies) have already attracted nearly a million users and are attracting tens of thousands more a day (Vascellaro, 2007a). These new services are part of a broad sweep of mobile companies trying to get consumers to translate their fanaticism for online video watching to smaller screens. But have these services caught on? According to the research firm M:Metrics Inc., of the nearly seven million who watch movie or TV video from their phones every month, the vast majority watch video clips sent to them from family or friends, rather than video prepackaged by a carrier. And Telephis Inc. reports that only 3.6% of US cellphone users subscribed to a mobile video service in the first quarter of 2007, up from 1.6% in the year-earlier period. Inhibiting the growth is consumer concerns about cellphone storage and lag time and delays when downloading the video content (Vascellaro, 2007b). A “Future and Emerging Technologies” activity could act as the development pathfinder and as a structured foresight service for future communications tools. By supporting upfront collaborative basic research at the frontier of knowledge in core mobile technology, e-Commerce and in their combination with other relevant disciplines, could continue identifying emerging mobile related research domains and exploring options in mobile R&D roadmaps where road blocks are anticipated and where "no known solutions" are available. e-Commerce could pursue its mission of nurturing many “novel ideas” for core technologies and radically new uses, up to their blooming into the first proof of concept and of narrowing down options that would lead to the industrial solutions of

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tomorrow. Integrated approach to business An integrated approach is the key. A type of commerce where a commercial transaction can be performed securely, any time, anywhere in the world, from any equipment, whether wired or wireless, using Internet technologies. "U-Commerce is a dynamic convergence of the physical and the digital, the interface of brick-andmortar commerce with Web-based wireless and other next-generation technologies in ways that will create new levels of convenience and value for buyers and sellers (Jay, 2004). A term u-Commerce has been created in the Internet world that refers to commerce that can be conducted anywhere and any time in that it is a fusion of ecommerce, m-Commerce (mobile commerce), tcommerce (television commerce) and bricks and mortar. It means seamless movement for consumers. UCommerce means that customers can come from all angles - today they may be in a showroom, tomorrow they may come at you via a website, cellular telephone phone or interactive television thanks to mobile technology (Jay, 2004). On-Line There are four Fundamental dimensions of u-Commerce as described by Watson, Richard T., Leyland F. 1. Ubiquity, 2. Uniqueness, 3. Universality and 4. Unison. Ubiquity allows users to access networks from anywhere at any time, and in turn, to be reachable at any place and any time. Computer will be useful everywhere. Basically we can say chip will be embedded in our daily life so as to be benefited by Internet and wireless technology supported by intelligent systems. For example, Payment technology is becoming ubiquitous, shattering past constraints of location and functionality. It can now connect the smallest rural community, enabling it to conduct commerce with the rest of the world. Uniqueness allows users to be uniquely identifiedâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;not only in terms of their identity and associated preferences, but also in terms of their geographical position. Avail only services what you want. Every program will be customization of your needs. It will be according to your roles in daily life. Download songs to make your mood or transfer sales records to your business data server on the spot of sale. Everything is unique and customized. Universality means devices are universally usable and multi-functional. Due to Internet and satellites your desktop, laptop, cell phone, or PDA will avail free mobility and lots of information at any time. Unison covers the idea of integrated data across multiple applications so that users have a consistent view on their information-irrespective of the device used. Consistency means if I change an address in my phone book it should reflect changes in my cellphone, calendar and PDA simultaneously.

In December 2001 a group of researchers met in Berlin, Germany to analyse these events and discuss future prospects for ecommerce. They concluded that eCommerce was not dead, but had moved on from its overly hyped beginning (Nathalie, 2001). This accelerated integration of many mobile technology fields, in which eCommerce will be playing a primary role, will be at the origin of a coming composite revolution that will be driving the emergence of a whole range of new technologies and disciplines (from meta-materials and nanotechnologies, to bio-informatics, bio-computing, biosensors and direct neural interfaces, etc). In particular, it is expected that the fundamental models of information, computing and communication will soon be revisited to address an emerging post-Turing and post-Shannon eCommerce era.

Market drivers The pervasiveness of technology History has clearly demonstrated that technology, properly applied, drives efficiencies, productivity, and value. As technology becomes more pervasive think of the explosive growth of nanotechnology as well as ongoing capital investments in technology at the enterprise level there is a larger platform on which to leverage innovation and new applications.

The growth of wireless One of the fastest growing distributed bases of new technology is wireless, with up to one billion mobile phones alone was expected to be in use by 2003 As wireless networks have expanded around the globe, mobile phone usage and new applications have exploded. To that end, an eye opening study conducted by experience revealed that there were 2.7 billion mobile phones in use by year 2010. The study also revealed that about two thirds of mobile phone users were â&#x20AC;&#x153;active users of SMS text messaging. Approximately 1.8 billion people actively texting today 2010 (Michael, 2008). One of the most successful new applications was DoCoMoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s iMode service in Japan, which allowed its 20 million subscribers to download music, shop and send instant messages. Americans and Europeans were also excited by the possibilities. In a survey conducted by Accenture, 40% of wireless phone users in the U.S. and Europe found the idea of shopping with their phones an appealing concept (Schapp and Cornelius, 2002). The potential of wireless is not limited to consumer applications. In some developing countries, for example, ATMs, one of the signal innovations of the retail banking industry, are now running off wireless GSM networks.

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Increasing bandwidth and connectivity Bandwidth has been doubling every nine months or roughly at twice the growth rate of computing power. It is not hard to imagine a world where IPv6 potential and promise may come to be realized and interactivity is possible in appliances as ubiquitous as televisions, medicine cabinets and refrigerators. Increasing bandwidth will lead to the creation of what is being called the “evernet,” where billions of devices will be connected to the hyperspeed, broadband, multiformat Web 2.0. In the future, the Internet will always be “on.” These are very powerful and far-reaching phenomena that can clearly drive all sorts of business models (as they did in the dotcom explosion of the late 90s). But to paraphrase Peter Drucker, every great idea eventually degenerates into work. Realizing the full vision of u-Commerce commerce that is universal, seamless, and secure will require a great deal of effort in a number of key areas. ANALYSES OF MOBILE AND E-COMMERCE USE SITUATION In mobile commerce context, several studies have examined the adoption of mobile technologies and services, suggesting the Technological Acceptance Model (TAM) and innovation diffusion theories providing relevant means for explaining mobile services adoption and use (Hung et al., 2003; Han et al., 2004; Kleijnen et al., 2004; Lee et al., 2003; Teo and Pok, 2003). In this section, we analyze on the technology, with emphasis on studies on mobile and ecommerce services. Early stage research on mobile banking adoption in UK confirms that relative advantage over existing services, compatibility of mobile banking with consumer needs and lifestyle, and the ability to test a new service and observe the successful outcomes of other users increased positive attitudes towards adopting, whereas perceived complexity and risks had a negative effect on the attitudes towards adoption (Lee et al., 2003). The most significant feature of mobile technology is the mobility per se: ability to access services ubiquitously, on the move, and through wireless networks and various devices, such as, PDAs and mobile phones (Coursaris and Hassanein, 2002; Lyytinen and Yoo, 2002). Compared with traditional electronic commerce, where transactions are commonly conducted through stationary desktop and laptop computers, mobile computing provides users with more freedom, as they can access information and services without having to find a physical space, such as, an office or an Internet café for internet connection (May, 2001). Kleinrock (1996) labeled the benefits provided by mobile technologies as “anytime and anywhere computing” and outlined the two most common dimensions of mobility – independence of time and place. The spatial and temporal dimensions of mobility extend computing and allow, in principle, anytime and anywhere

access to information, communication, and services. Kakihara and Sørensen (2001) expanded the concept of mobility into three dimensions of human interaction; spatial, temporal and contextual mobility. The spatial and temporal dimensions correspond to those of Kleinrock’s anytime and anywhere computing, whereas the contextual dimension extends the definition further. Contexts in which people reside continuously frame their interaction with others, including people’s cultural background, particular situation or mood, and degree of mutual recognition (Kakihara and Sørensen, 2001). Perry et al. (2001) discuss restrictions that use situations pose to the ubiquitous computing. Specifically, the anytime and anywhere access is dependent on technological and social conditions of the use environment; not all places provide the needed technological infrastructure such as network connections required for ubiquitous computing, and not all social situations are adequate for mobile computing (Perry et al., 2001). The potential of mobile technology for the retail sector is endless. Advances in Internet and network technology and the rapidly growing number of mobile personal devices result in the fast growth of Mobile e-Commerce, m-Commerce and eventually u-Commerce. Many retailers are already using SMS to alert customers of special events and offers and Bluetooth technology could lead to customers receiving sales messages the minute they walk into stores. CONCLUSION Our preliminary study is focusing on recognition of uCommerce concept in realizing the promising of ucommerce. This paper is presenting preliminary results and announcing deeper second wave survey which should provide empirical evidence to support hypothesis that African enterprises and public services providers are following global trend of increasing u-Commerce technologies international importance and penetration. Now that mobile penetration in many parts of the world has reached a plateau, new growth depends, to a large extent, on generating revenue from new services. And advances in the devices that customers use to access cellular networks often can help enable those new services. Recognizing that, the fact that wireless device sales outpaced market forecasts for 2005 is a very positive sign. We are in a transitional phase of the global commerce. Some of the assumptions and early tenets of the “new commerce” are being challenged. To us, the labels “old business” and “new business” are, in fact, a false distinction. The evolution we are witnessing and want to help drive is the evolution of the “smart commerce.” This is a commerce that is more flexible, fluid, interconnected, efficient and resilient. We believe u-Commerce will be both a driver and an outcome of the smart commerce with the mobile technology growth. The smart commerce

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is poised to grow explosively, with many players from multiple industries all vying for the customer’s attention. These players will be offering new services, new payment tools, and a host of new ways to get access to goods and services anytime, anywhere, and any way due to mobile technology. We expect competition to be fierce among players in the payments chain, with the advantage going to those who recognize a few fundamental rules about this emerging environment. U-commerce represents the next step in digitization as true ubiquity has profound implications. Thus, marketing and other scholars need to be preparing for this final destination and recognize that e-Commerce and mCommerce are way stations on the path. They are signposts on the road from somewhere to everywhere. To traverse this path, marketing scholars need to investigate several significant issues. REFERENCES Abboud L (2007). Cellphones’ coming attraction: You! Wall St. J. B1. Africa Internet & B2C E-Commerce Report 2012, RESEARCH ON INTERNATIONAL MARKETS accessed in October 2012from www.ystats.com/uploads/report_abstracts/939.pdf?PHPSESSID. Ahonen A, Jones S (2003). iStethoscope in Medical Journal.http://apps.peterjbentley.com/Blog/?e=53483&d=08/29/2010 &s=iStethoscope%20Pro%20in%20a%20medical%20journal. Retrieved November 23, 2010). Bergen J (2007). Recruiters: You, too, can YouTube. The Philadelphia Inquirer. C1-C8. Bourguignon F (2003). The Growth Elasticity of Poverty Reduction in T. Eicher and S. Turnovsky (eds.): Inequality of Growth, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Carvajal D (2007). Sneak preview of Europe’s Internet video market. International Herald Tribune. http//www.iht.com/articles/ 2007/02/11/business/video12.php. Coursaris C, Hassanein K (2002). Understanding m-Commerce a consumer centric model, Quarterly journal of electronic commerce, 3, 3, 247-271. Gardner W (2007). AT&T debuts video share, but not for iPhone. http://www.informationweek.com/internet/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid =UJ2SS3E2OQWVQQSNDLQCKHSCJUNN2JVN?articleID=201200 463&articleID=201200463. GoT (2001). Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. Progress Report 2000/01, Dar es Salaam: Government of Tanzania, August ComScore: 38 Percent Of Smartphone Owners Have Used A Mobile Device To Make A Purchase". http://techcrunch.com/2011/12/05/ comscore-38-percent-of-smartphone-owners-have-used-a-mobiledevice-to-make-a purchase/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campai gn=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29. Retrieved December 6, 2011. Guth R (2007). Let’s get together. Wall St. J. R9. Han S, Harkke V, Mustonen P, Seppänen M, Kallio M (2004). Mobilizing medical information and knowledge: some insights from a survey. In th 12 European Conference on Information Systems. Turku, Finland. Harden T (2012).Mobile marketing methods that get results Mobile Marketing Trends. http://www.bobiznow.com. Retrieved February 2012. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.94.46&rep=re p1&type=pdf. Retrieved August 23, 2010. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/ 0,contentMDK:20195989~pagePK:148956~piPK:2166 18~theSitePK: 336992, 00.html cited on May 2007. Hung SY, Ku CY, Chang CM (2003). Critical Factors of WAP Services Adoption: an Empirical Study. Electronic Commer. Res. Appl. 2(1):42-60.

IMF (2004). Joint Staff Assessment of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Progress Report, IMF Country Report No. 04/283, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. ITU World Radiocommunication Seminar highlights future communication technologies". http://www.itu.int/net/pressoffice/ press_releases/2010/48.aspx. Jay CU (2004). Commerce Integrating business anywhere sited on 7 June 2008 at http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/3-16-2004-51736.asp. Kakihara M, Sørensen C (2001). Expanding the Mobility' Concept. ACM SIGGROUP Bull. 22(3):33-37. Kleijnen M, Wetzels M, de Ruyter K (2004). Consumer acceptance of wireless finance. J. Financial Serv. Mark. 8(3):206-217. Kleinrock L (1996). Nomadicity: anytime, anywhere in a disconnected world. Mob. Netw. Appl. 1(4):351-357. Lee MSY, McGoldrick PJ, Keeling KA, Doherty J (2003). Using ZMET to explore barriers to the adoption of 3G mobile banking services", Int. J. Retail Distrib. Manage. 31(6):340-348. Lyytinen K, Yoo Y (2002). Research Commentary: The Next Wave of Nomadic Computing". Information Syst. Res. 13(4):377-388. May P (2001). Mobile Commerce: Opportunities, Applications, and Technologies of Wireless Business: Cambridge University Press. Michael (2008). Mobile Growth is Exceeding Expectations Globally Mobile Marketing http://www.mobilemarketingwatch.com/mobilegrowth-is-exceeding-expectations-globally-2/ sited 21/August/2008. Mobile Store front. Mobile Commerce News. http://www.mobilestarterstore.com/index.php?option=com_content&vi ew=category&layout=blog&id=1&Itemid=50 Retrieved November 2011. Nathalie S (2001). Book Review Benoît DANARD & Rémy LE CHAMPION In a group of researchers met in Berlin, Germany to analyse these events and discuss future prospects for e-commerce p.123. Pepus G (2007). Smart image and video search. KMWorld 16(6) 6-8. Perry M, O'hara K, Sellen A, Brown B, Harper R (2001). Dealing with Mobility: Understanding Access Anytime, Anywhere. ACM Trans. Comput. Hum. Interact. 8(4):323-347. Pettey C, Stevens H (2012). Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Consumer Mobile Applications for 2012, The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1205513.Retrived Retrieved January 2012. Schapp S, Cornelius R D (2000). A white paper U-Commerce Leading the New World of Payments. Schejter A, Serenko A, Turel O, Zahaf M (2010). Policy implications of market segmentation as a determinant of fixed-mobile service substitution: What it means for carriers and policy makers". Telematics Inform. 27(1):90-102. Tancer W (2007). YouTube and Google: Quantifying the Synergy.http://weblogs.hitwise.com/billtancer/2007/01/youtube_and_ google_quantifying.htmlVon. Teo, TSH, Pok SH (2003). Adoption of WAP-enabled Mobile Phones Among Internet Users". Omega 31(6):483-498. Tiwari R, Buse S (2007). The Mobile Commerce Prospects: A strategic analysis of opportunities in the banking sector (PDF). Hamburg: Hamburg University Press. p. 33. ISBN 978-3-937816-31-9. UNCTAD (2012). Mobile Money for Business Development in the east African community, A Comparative Study of Existing Platforms and Regulations United nations Conference on Trade and Development, access on October 2012 from http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/dtlstict2012d2_en.pdf. Vascellaro J (2007a). What’s a Cellphone for. Wall St. J. B5. Vascellaro J (2007b). Calling all videos. Wall St. J. D1-2. Watson RT, Pitt LF, Berthon P, Zinkhan GM (2002). “U-Commerce: Extending the Universe of Marketing,” J. Acad. Market. Sci. 30((4):329-343. World Bank (2001). Social Development in Europe and Central Asia Region: Issues and Directions. Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development, Social Development Team, Europe and Central Asia, World Bank.

African Journal of Business Management Vol. 7(2), pp. 96-118, 14 January, 2013 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM DOI: 10.5897/AJBM10.1634 ISSN 1993-8233 ÂŠ2013 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Towards sustainable green ship technology O. Sulaiman1*, A. H. Saharuddin1, and A. S. A. Kader2 1

Faculty of Maritime Studies and Marine Science, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 UMT, Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. 2 Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Department of Marine Technology, Universiti Technologi Malaysia, 81300 Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. Accepted 24 August, 2011

Man live in two worlds, the biosphere and the techno sphere world over the years, time needs, growth, speed, and knowledge and competition have created demand that necessitated man to build complex institution. Ship design is not left out in this process. Inland water, are under treat from untreated waste that can feed bacteria and algae, which in turn exhaust the oxygen. The ocean cover 70% of the globe, many think that everything that run into it is infinite, the ocean is providing the source of freshening winds and current that are far more vulnerable to polluting activities that have run off into them too many poisons, that the ocean may cease to serve more purpose if care is not taking to prevent pollution. This issue of environment becomes so sensitive in recently and most are linked to infrastructure development work. Most especially in maritime industry polluting activities from oil bilge to ballast pumping that has turned into poison has advert effect on water resources. Some have choked too much estuarine water where there is fish spawn. In a nutshell, the two worlds we live are currently out of balance and in potential conflict. Man is in the middle, and since the treat are mostly water related, ship is in the middle too. Historical records of number of calamity that has resulted to heavy lost and pollution call for environmentally sound ship. This has led to a number of regulations today that will subsequently affect policies change and procedures interaction with the system. The current situation has affected the design of new ships and modification of existing ships. This paper review and discuss green technology emanating from regulations and highlight new system design being driven by marine pollution prevention and, protection and control regulation. Key words: Sustainability, ship, design, environment, safety, mitigation, impact, control. INTRODUCTION Human civilization from stone age to industrial, computer, and information to multimedia innovative technological era, work has been mostly about building and forgetting the inherited biosphere environment world that support planetary life. Today human sensitivity is aggressively defining age as an age of sensitivity, safety and environment. Human developmental works for years during this era of transition have been built with oblivion or lack of consciousness to the environment. The term â&#x20AC;&#x153;environmental issuesâ&#x20AC;? usually implies one of two interpretations: 1) Wind, waves, tides, sediment characteristics and or other environmental factors involved in

*Corresponding author. E-mail: o.sulaiman@umt.edu.my.

development work 2) Environmental protection in the sense of reducing the negative impact on water, air, soil quality, infrastructure, health and coastal habitat. In the first sense of the term, all concern need to agree that methods for predicting and reporting environmental conditions have greatly improved, especially in the dimension of scientific analysis. This can provide directions to connect necessary dots. In shipping and associated industries, ship protection and marine pollution are respectively interlinked in terms of safety and environment, conventionally ship safety is being dealt with as its occurrence causes environmental problem. Pollution from maritime industry seems to be small; currently it is approximated to be 3%, especially considering green house gas (GHG) emission. Today

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Step 1 Hazard identification

Step 2 Ris k Analys is 2

Step 3 Optiions Control

Step 4 Cos t Benefit

Step 5 des is ion and recom m endatio n

Figure 1. Risk approach.

considering volume of ships in the world ocean, pollution from shipping can be considered to be exponentially rising. Culmination of oversight regarding emission has lead to point form pollution that has contributed to the impact of ozone layer depletion, incessant flooding, global warming and more unknown calamity whose source is hard to be determined seem to be increasing if caution is not exercise in the current ways of doing things. Shipping is not left behind in this, in fact, maritime world seem to be the most to get hit by next big environmental revolt. Pollutions is about accident and accident is about pollution, because, the later is the cause of the former. This paper addresses environmental impacts to ship design with respect to human, safety, ship, reliability, channel, maneuverability factors and marine environment. The paper also emphasizes on the need to incorporate in the ship design spiral, the design process regarding the afore-mentioned enumerated factors, for example environmental issues were never part of the ship design spiral (Erik, 2009; Intertanko, 1998; NMD, 2008). REVIEW APPROACH This review paper collected information and used a risk based approach to analyze environmental issue, ship system, current practice and regulatory analysis to deduce prospect green technology and practice for ship. Figure 1 describes the qualitative process of examination of the issue under examination, which involve matching system requirement with regulation to deduce gap and technological requirement. The issue of green ship concept is addressed by analyzing evolving technology. In respect to the afore-mentioned, current situation is examined, policy, demand, mitigation and way to move forward green ship is addressed. Also addressed is importance of simulation and scientific system based risk

analysis, especially for ship complex and dynamic system design, and channel accommodation of large ship movement in port as well as the introduction of marine environment awareness in maritime curriculum. Need to incorporate as much of cybernetic technology in navigational and maritime operations for sustainable and efficient performance is stressed. Actionable marine environment mitigation measure, recommendation for strategies to achieve safe, cost marine ship efficient navigation and protection of the marine environment cost effective state of art sustainable of ship design at planning stage is advised (Intertanko , 1998). Risk based design is advised to be incorporated in decision leading adopting new green technology, the process should include determination of high goal based objectives from gap between system compatibility with compliance couple with hazard identification, this is followed by risk analysis and risk control option, then reliability, system complexity and uncertainty analysis and lastly cost benefit, and sustainability analysis. Figure 1 shows risk approach to process for green ship technology. Less attention is also given to ship life cycle, material properties, variable and frequency matching with the environment. A situation that has led to unbearable condition like corrosion and other unseen environmental degradation that accumulate into painful catastrophically loses or abrupt system failure. Also in the long run, ship scraping and what happen to the environment after ship scraping is another issue of environment under discussion in International Maritime Organisation (IMO). In ship recycling little or no attention is given to the residual material that finds their ways to pollute the sea (IMO, 1980; Bian et al., 2000). Other areas of concern in the ship design process are consideration for channel design criteria, ships controllability and maneuverability in dredged channels due to rapid erosion. All in all, incorporating preventive and control sensible measures in ship design can only be optimize method and give us

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confidence reliability on our for environment environmental conservation. Focal areas that need revolutionary changes in ship design that is being identified in this paper (Tarrason et al., 2003) include issue relating to material selection to withstand structural, weight, economical lifecycle anticorrosion and fouling, incorporating ship simulation at early stage of ship design as well as structural scantly to withstand structural function, reliability, integrity, weight and economical lifecycle. Also discussed is incorporation maneuvering ship simulation at early stage of design iteration, incorporate new close loop environmental disposal technology system to make new ships environmental safe towards achieving low pollutions and efficiency ship system. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE AND IMPACT AREAS Environmental issue becomes a blessing through opening new window of green technology opportunity for conservation, recycling, miniaturization, system integration and management of resources. It is important to start to implement clean ships initiative for ship design, this include optimal choice require to design shipboard pollution control system that will allow waste or hazard treat or process on board or allow integration of such system in existing ship. Most especially, it is necessary to incorporate such system in earlier ship design process through forming basic concept to set aside enough space on board for scalable, efficient proactive and sustainable system (Watson, 1998). There is need to design system that will allow waste to be destroyed on board the ship and those that cannot be destroyed would be treated to level where discharge is harmless. Advert environmental occurrence and impact of recent days, is evolving sensitivity leading to new policies for pollution control and more seem to be coming (WHO, 2003). For example, NOx emission limit compliance and SOx sulfur emission control area (SECA) in the Baltic is an example of best practice that is being implemented. If actions are not taken now, the repercussion could include similitude of inconvenience of discharge regulation, possible more MARPOL special discharge areas and augmentation of confusion caused by waste signature (advert of floating of debris). Considering the beneficent part of this contemporary issue, environmentally sound ship with self contained pollution control system, can be independent of shore facilities for shipboard waste management and will end up reducing logistic requirement and costs. Time has seen how in economical and inconvenience it is for ships pumping liquid waste to pier side reception facilities, offload solid waste and excess hazardous material for disposal. Where vessels are astronomically being charge substantial costs by private contractors to dispose generated wastes. With this, green ship will nonetheless give the following beneficial business advantages to

maritime industry green ship certification (Karma and Morgan, 1975). With green ship credential, the ships will be among the significant ship of tomorrow, they will be the ship with good pride and public image that will provide leadership definition to shipping companies of tomorrow. They will be safer, environmental friendly (everything around them including marine recourses will be safe). Also, the ship will maintain good relationship with legislation and environmental agencies (hence minimizes the risk of fines and litigation). Green ship will helps in the control of operational pollution, ship movement in waterways, minimizing the risk of an environmental incident and enables companies to demonstrate a proactive approach to environmental protection. Green ship concept will also helps companies to gain recognition of investment in pollution control technology as well as improves operational efficiency will provides confidence that environmental risk is being managed effectively. High levels of environmental performance can create competitive advantage In today environmentally conscious world, there is already so much pressure on ship owners to minimize the impact of their operations on the environment. More regulations are likely to be enforced; luckily, human civilization is enjoying an age of environmental based innovation and development. Advancement in transportation, information and technology has involved dynamic and complex activities that manage speed, safety, reliability, miniaturization, cost, mobility and networking in most industries efficiently. This poweress of human civilization is evidence that technology that is required to developed efficient low pollution and environmental friendly technology are available. It is matter of exercising more creativity and culture of sharing, complementation available resources within limited time and employing them to meet requirement of sustainable system equity law (safety, cost, speed, efficiency, low pollution etc) (Landsburg et al., 1983). Major environmental impact areas Environmental protection is considered a design constraint when evaluating cost, schedule, and performance of systems under development, and product improvement. The engineer need to consider the environmental impact of proposed actions, and mitigation plan required to supports unrestricted operations. This can be achieved by developing, producing, installing, and managing all shipboard equipment, systems, and procedures require reducing and managing shipboard wastes in compliance with existing and anticipated environmental worldwide restrictions. Table 1 shows Global warming potential for from marine activities. This should be done without jeopardizing the ship mission, survivability, or habitability. The major effects of ships environmental effects that must be prevented, protected or control can be in the

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Table 1. Global worming potential (GWP) of various compound (RINA. 2007).

Compound

GWP (100 Year ITH)

Cox

NOx CHX

296 23

HFC-134a HFC-227ea HFC-c-23a CF

1,300 3,500 12,000 1

following form of intentional and unintentional discharge from ship (oil, garbage, antifouling paint, and transfer of indigenous species from ballast water), or environmental damage and pollution due to port activities, or disturbance of marine environmental (collision and noise) or intentional and unintentional (emission from energy equipments as well as from scraping of ships at the end of their life cycle) (IMO, 1998; Slocombe, 1993). Risk associated with environmental issue in ship design (MSA, 1995) involve i) accidental risk: that includes marine accident that could result to that oil spills which then end up degrading the environment. Group of Expert on Scientific Aspect of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) reported that 300 to 400 thousands of oil that entered the world ocean according to (GESAMP, 1993) was caused by collision with marine mammal, which then cause propeller injuries, hence more economic losses. ii) Operational risks: socio economic impacts to marine ecology, habitat, and coastal infrastructures are affected through operational activities that result to oil spill, emission, ballast water, garbage, dredge contamination, and antifouling. Other accident risk are vessel, channel and maneuverability risk: in the context of ship design, the impacts areas are related to shipping trends, channel design criteria, ship maneuverability, ship controllability, and use of simulators in channel studies. Since World War II many nations built port but forget about maintaining them according to larger ships being produced by shipyards. Physical dimension and ratio of ships to channel that have impact in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ship controllability design include Increase in ship beam expansion where as channel width is not, length/beam (L/B) ratio; Radius of turns and turning areas-radius of turns is directly related to navigation safety and protection of the marine environment, large rudder angles are needed to navigate small radius turns rudder size, this is hardly critically taken into consideration in ship design work; Power/tonnage ratio and minimum bare steerage speed and windage; Over the last decade, each passing years has been augmented with concerned about issue of environment. The issue touch all area of human endeavors, in maritime

Inclusion Natural occurring compounds

HFC`s Novec 1230 Fire protection fluid

technology this include design, construction, operation and beneficial disposal of marine articraft. The non renewable energy source that has driven past technology has ended up with increasing the resources of the planet, but depleting components of environment that support life. This has accumulated to production that demands long term sustainability of the earth. Precipitated point form pollution effect over the year is currently calling for public awareness and it translating into impacts of the following areas described (Barry, 1993): i) Commercial forces: this include situation of company or product that operate in unenvironmental friendly way, people are prone to spurn the companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s products and service. This has impact on company return on investment. ii) Regulations: public pressure on governmental and non-governmental organization regulating environmental impacts due to untold stories of disaster and impact. The public is very concerned about quality of life of people and the need for it is to be sustained. To meet their requirement and need of the future generation, then the environment must be protected. Conspicuous issue, expertise and new finding on multidimensional uncertainty make them to go extra length on unseen issue. Contrasting between the first two, commercial force action on can become forth problems. iii) Water, air and soil pollution: Water volume that support the planet, scarcity of land, Global warming and health impacts. iv) Ship concept design: is very important in shipping and it account for 80% of failure, therefore compliance and making of optimal design at concept stage has a great impact in ship whole life cycle. The impact of environment in ship design is very difficult because of large numbers of associated uncertainties within the phases of design process. Environmental impact that need to be taken into considerations in concept design that take into consideration (IMO, 2000) construction and associated elements of pollution, this comes into picture when multidirectional

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thinking give wisdom on what happen during transportation, material handling and what is being released to the nearby rivers. Operations considering limiting life cycle of ships at estimate of 20 years, issues relating to operation are equally not easy to quantify in design work. Even thus a lot of research effort has been set on to move on this. But the call of the day requires allowable clearance and solution to be given to accidental, ballast waste, fouling and biodiversification. Disposal: issue of disposal that cover waste and emission and as well as what to do with the ship at the end of her life cycle. And finally energy and environment: The case of air pollution, global warming, ozone depletion and climate change.

d) Energy and environment: The case of air pollution, global warming, ozone depletion and climate change

i) Commercial forces: this include situation of company or product that operate in unenvironmental friendly way, people are prone to spurn the companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s products and service. This has impact on company return on investment. ii) Regulations: public pressure on governmental and non-governmental organization regulating environmental impacts due to untold stories of disaster and impact. The public is very concerned about quality of life of people and the need for it is to be sustained. To meet their requirement and need of the future generation, then the environment must be protected. Conspicuous issue, expertise and new finding on multidimensional uncertainty make them to go extra length on unseen issue. Contrasting between the first two, commercial force action on can become forth problems. iii) Water, air and soil pollution: Water volume that support the planet, scarcity of land, Global warming and health impacts. iv) Ship concept design: is very important in shipping and it account for 80 percent of failure, therefore compliance and making of optimal design at concept stage has a great impact in ship whole life cycle. The impact of environment in ship design is very difficult because of large numbers of associated uncertainties within the phases of design process. Environmental impact that need to be taken into considerations in concept design can be classified into the following (IMO, 2000):

Important IMO Conventions (http://www.imo.org/About/ Conventions/ListOfConventions)

a) Construction: this involve pollution, this comes into picture when multidirectional thinking give wisdom on what happen during transportation, material handling and what is being released to the nearby rivers. b) Operations: considering limiting life cycle of ships at estimate of 20 years, issues relating to operation are equally not easy to quantify in design work. Even thus a lot of research effort has been set on move on this. But the call of the day requires allowable clearance and solution to be given to accidental, ballast waste, fouling and bio-diversification. c) Disposal: issue of disposal that cover waste and emission and as well as what to do with the ship at the end of her life cycle.

International serious

Maritime

Organization

(IMO)

gets

Evidence about the volume of the water planetary percentile, how significant this is to the safeguard of the planet and conversely the volume of ships that ply every day the ocean of the world put pressure from land based environmental organization to sea based regulatory governor (IMO, 2000; De Leeuw et al., 2001).

i) International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974, as amended ii) International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973, as modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto and by the Protocol of 1997(MARPOL) iii) International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watch keeping for Seafarers (STCW) as amended, including the 1995 and 2010 Manila Amendments. Other conventions relating to maritime safety and security and ship/port interface i) Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG), 1972 ii) Convention on Facilitation of International Maritime Traffic (FAL), 1965 iii) International Convention on Load Lines (LL), 1966 iv) International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR), 1979 v) Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA), 1988, and Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on the Continental Shelf (and the 2005 Protocols) International Convention for Safe Containers (CSC), 1972 Convention on the International Maritime Satellite Organization (IMSO C), 1976 The Torremolinos International Convention for the Safety of Fishing Vessels (SFV), 1977 vi) International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Fishing Vessel Personnel (STCW-F), 1995 Special Trade Passenger Ships Agreement (STP), 1971 and Protocol on Space Requirements for Special Trade Passenger Ships, 1973 vii) Other conventions relating to prevention of marine pollution

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Table 2. MARPOL Coverage.

MARPOL (Annex) I II III III III VI

Coverage Oil Noxious liquid chemicals Harmful Goods (package) Sewage Garbage Emission and air pollution -SOx, NOx and green house gas Green House Gas (GHG), emission of ozone depletion gas (ODG)Ozone Depletion Gas (ODG)

viii) International Convention Relating to Intervention on the High Seas in Cases of Oil Pollution Casualties (INTERVENTION), 1969 Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (LC), 1972 (and the 1996 London Protocol) ix) International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation (OPRC), 1990 Protocol on Preparedness, Response and Co-operation to pollution Incidents by Hazardous and Noxious Substances, 2000 (OPRC-HNS Protocol) x) International Convention on the Control of Harmful Anti-fouling Systems on Ships (AFS), 2001 International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediments, 2004 The Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, 2009 xi) Conventions covering liability and compensation xii) International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC), 1969, 1992 Protocol to the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage (FUND 1992) Convention relating to Civil Liability in the Field of Maritime Carriage of Nuclear Material (NUCLEAR), 1971 Athens Convention relating to the Carriage of Passengers and their Luggage by Sea (PAL), 1974 Convention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims (LLMC), 1976 International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (HNS), 1996 (and its 2010 Protocol) International Convention on Civil Liability for Bunker Oil Pollution Damage, 2001 Nairobi International Convention on the Removal of Wrecks, 2007 Other subjects convention i) International Convention on Tonnage Measurement of Ships (TONNAGE), 1969 ii) International Convention on Salvage (SALVAGE),1989

Policies and procedures build-up: emission prevention and control

Pollution

The earlier pollution regulation by IMO work under International convention for the prevention of pollution from ships involves (MARPOL) 1973. It covers accidental and operational oil pollution as well as pollution by chemicals, goods in packaged form, sewage, and garbage. Its adoption was later modified to follow tacit procedure by protocol of 1978 relating thereto (MARPOL 1973, 1978) because of urgency of implementation, (Table 2). New annex to MARPOL have been introduced in diplomatic conference because of need of the time. Especially annex VI was quickly adopted, but allowances are given for independent adoption and implementation because of environmental geographical differences, resources availability and also because lack of enough evidence of data (IMO, 2008). Other areas where IMO focus on are process and facilitation and system base framework like the use of formal safety assessment and International Safety Management (ISM) check list and, documentation, and provision of International safety management. Annex is the latest that is attracting more scurrility like oxide of nitrogen (NOx) limit for new design, collection of air pollution data by al ports, sulfur emission control area. Table 2 illustrates MARPOL (1973, 1978). New Annex to MARPOL covers i) control and management of ballast water to minimize transfer of harmful foreign species EMS, 2000). ii) Global prohibition of Tributyltin (TBT) in antifouling coating - phase out in 2008. iii) Control and management of emission from ship combustion machineries (Annex VI). Other areas IMO gets serious are: i) Marine environmental protection committee (MEPC), IMO technical committee forming subcommittee on specific issue to implement regulation towards necessary mitigation. ii) International Convention on oil Pollution, Response and Cooperation (OPRC), 1990: policy to combat major incidents or threats of marine pollution through port state control (PSC) to prevent mitigates or eliminates danger to the coastline from a maritime casualty. Protocol under this convention covers marine pollution by hazardous and noxious substance (HNS Protocol). ii) The IMO proposal to regulate the use of TBT-based antifouling paints. A ban on application of

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TBT-based paints in 2003 and a total ban in 2008 is suggested. In anticipation of new regulations, the marine paint industry has developed alternatives to tributyltin self-polishing copolymers (TBT-SPCs). iii) IMO establishment of safety management system (SMS). and This is a part of the requirement for obtaining and maintaining ISM certification. As a result of this, international environmental organizations are seriously encouraging all concerned parties to galvanize their community by setting up panels, collaborating with scientists and technical bodies, to encourage the use of existing scientific bodies and research centers for global observation systems. This includes the taping of the informal sources of information related to early warning as part of the solution to deal with the problem of sharing data among countries, as well using human capacity and the rapid spread of internet as a tool for information compilation, discussions and news dissemination. Some of the land and sea based regulations that have been passed are IMO (1997), Murphy (1996), Ronald (1997): i) MARPOL (1978): Cover Annex I, includes Oil, Annex II - Noxious liquid chemicals, Annex III - Harmful Goods (package), Annex IV Sewage, Annex V - Ballast water. ii) Adoption of control and prevention measures in 2003 by IMO, as well as problems associated with the transfer of harmful aquatic organisms in ships' ballast water to address greenhouse gas emissions. iii) IMO also passed the MARPOL Annex VI during a diplomatic conference and bypassed the usual tacit procedure. Whereby Annex VI - emission and air pollution SOx, NOx and green house gas, emission of ozone depletion gas (ODG). iv) Adopt the convention in 2004 to support the International Convention on the Control of Harmful Anti-fouling Systems on Ships 2001. The diplomatic conference also addressed the implementation of the International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation 1990. vi) Global prohibition of TBT in antifouling coating - phase out scheduled for 2008. vii) International convention on oil pollution response and cooperation (OPRC) (1990). viii) Policy to combat major accidents or threats, control to prevent, mitigate or eliminate the danger of marine pollution from the port to its coastline from a maritime casualty. ix) Protocol on the carriage of hazardous and noxious substances (HNS). x) Oil Spills Protocol: Protocol Concerning Specially Protected Areas and Wildlife (SPAW Protocol). xii) Protocol Concerning Pollution from Land-based Sources and Activities (LBS Protocol). xii) Agenda 21 debut on sustainable development. Maritime work and regulation has always been a top down set-up, as a result of IMO seriousness on environmental issue various maritime organization follow suite, some of the development that follows IMO actions leads to classification societies to aggressively building service on environment protection, notation, and various performance indicators to get all concern committed to

running an environmentally sound ships. This include Lloyds through risk assessment holistic method deduce effects and framework for clean ship the benchmark standard and DnV has equally lunched Environmental Ballast Water Management Assessment (EMBLA) database integrated project that will manage discharge of ballast water. Other institution that take beyond compliance measure include the European Union, recently the European Union has embarked on multinational project call On Board Treatment of Ballast Water (MARTOB) ballast water. Also Montreal Protocol was passed, where some 110 governments attended Parties to the Montreal Protocol, in September 1997 where several important decisions were reached, including the tightening of restrictions on several destructive chemicals. Others global organization measure include the export of hazardous waste from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries to non-OECD countries is banned under the convention; this ban entered into force in 1998 in the EU countries. Local involve Nordic tanker, where, Trim optimization by NORDEN/Green Steam and Nordic Tankers was introduced. Effort by company involves real-time analysis of bunker quality and emissions by A. P. Møller and automated engine monitoring by Man and A. P. Møller Policies and procedures build-up preventions and control measures

for

collision

Although ships may spend 90 to 98% of their operational lives underway at sea speed in deep water, it is during the mandatory beginning and end of every voyage when the risk of collisions and groundings are highest. Ensuring the ability to maintain complete and positive control of a ship’s movement during these segments of a voyage is absolutely vital if that risk of navigation safety and protection of the marine environment is to be reduced. According to Intertanko’s (1996) on port and putting bigger and bigger ships (and more of them) into the same old channel has been going on for a long time, to mitigate collision whose occurrence lead to environmental problem. The design recommended limit for trim by the stern for a tanker is 0.015L in accordance with Regulation 13 of MARPOL (1973, 1978), Annex I. This information, which is based on tests conducted in deepwater, includes a turning circle diagram as well as tables showing time and distance to stop the vessel from full and half-speed. IMO Resolution A601 (15), which was adopted in 1987, contains recommendations for ensuring maneuvering information is available on board the ship, furthermore, The 1995 Seafarers’ Training, Certification and Watch keeping STCW Code, Section A-VIII/2 part 31, and article 49 require the master and pilot to “exchange information regarding navigation procedures, local conditions and the ship’s characteristics.” Also, Marine Board study assessed the use of numerical

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Table 3. Parameters demand and Impact.

Environmental parameters

Environmental Demand

Impact areas

Ship design,

Need for longer safe life cycle

New limit definition, correct material selection, Material technology, quality control of safety and environment

Construction

High worker safety standards, low energy input

Improved hull hydrodynamic,

Minimum pollution and emission, Minimum SOx, NOx and green house gas-zero discharge Zero harmful emission Efficient maneuverability

Advance close loop process on board, waste recycling equipment, improve training Beneficial disposal Improve maneuverability

Emission Scrapping Operations waste,

simulation technology to train mariners and concluded that while modeling accuracy is sufficient for deep-water operations; modeling requires refinement to provide the accuracy needed for shallow and restricted water operations (K책geson, 1999; Huey, 1997). Ship design policy build-up In 1971, IMO adopted Resolution A.209 (VII) establishing recommendations regarding posting maneuvering regulation II-1/29.3.2 of SOLAS requires rudder movement from 35째 on either side to 35째 to the other side within 28 s or less. IMO approved circular MSC/Circ.389 in 1985 establish interim guidelines for estimating the maneuverability. This include rudder size and effectiveness, ability to transit at slow forward speed, propulsion and propeller characteristics, number of available engine reversals, adequate horsepower for control, extra reserve rudder angle needed to allow for ship crabbing from wind forces or moored ship suction, visibility from bridge and bridge arrangement, hull form squat (trim and sink age) characteristics and also, effect of bank forces on moorings and passing ships, air draft, emergency anchoring ability, amount of tow line leads and line access (MARPOL, 1978). Current ship design practice Existing design tools cannot, at least with any degree of reliability is required to be used to design a vessel and ensure that it will ensure environmental reliability and adequate maneuverability in shallow or restricted waters. Neither can it be used to satisfy demand need by clean ships. In part this is because of the extreme on-linearity of hull and propulsion characteristics under these conditions. In general, naval architects and marine engineers are to be educated and equipped with knowledge, skills, and design processes that permit continuous checking and balancing of constraints and design tradeoffs of

vessel capabilities as the design progresses. The intended result of the design process is the best design given the basic requirements of speed, payload, and endurance to achieve sustainable system design. Also, ship design focus is not placed on how the channels and waterways are designed. Even more importantly, there is a general lack of understanding of the operational scenario regarding piloting of vessels in constrained waterways. Only recently has there been a real attempt to fully integrate human operational practices with vessel design. The involvement of human beings on board vessels both extends and restricts the inherent vessel maneuvering capabilities. This also complicates the necessary methodology for assuring safe and efficient operations. Taking waste, pollution issue and restricted waterway maneuverability as an important part of ship design spiral would be a necessary step to enabling proper tradeoffs in vessel design. The reality is that maneuverability and pollution protection is still not an important consideration in ship design of many merchant ships. The result is that design decisions that can compromise environment and collision are decided in favor of other factors. Consideration for full range of ship, channel design, environment, maneuverability, technology and human factors relationships offer opportunity to achieve high efficient and safe environmental friendly sustainable marine transportation. The new challenge of environment is also a reminder for need to squeeze in more stuff in the design spiral. Table 3 shows demand and impact parameters for technological signature. Environmental mitigation toward green technology (pollution prevention protection and control measure) Shipboard waste and emission prevention, protection and control Treatment and elimination -pollution prevention or pollution control (P2C) is backbone of the thrust in achieving

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Figure 2. Strategies for green ship technology.

clean ship system and technology. Pollution prevention uses fewer environmentally harmful sub-stances and generates less waste on board. Pollution control: involve increase treatment, processing, or destruction of wastes on board. The basic of P2C prin-ciples follows elimination of the use of environmentally harmful chemicals, such as ozone-depleting substance (ODSs), toxic antifouling hull coatings, and other hazardous materials, through the best approach for dealing with some potential problems. Reducing the amount of waste being generated on board is often better than treating it on board. For example, reducing the amount of plastics and other packaging materials taken aboard can simplify solid and plastics waste management. Similarly, reducing the volume of liquid wastes generated (such as gray water) may simplify onboard liquid-waste treatment system and operation. Figure 2 shows strategies for green ship technology. Table 4 shows environmental impact and response. Table 5 describes reduction potential from research conducted in Europe (NRL, 2008). For the wastes and hazardous materials that cannot be prevented, it is important to develop pollution-control strategies and technologies categories, other technical mitigation measures are: 1) Antifouling: Toxic approach uses other metals such copper and zinc, or agrochemicals for example, triazines. Fouling release is confronted by the use physical properties of low surface energy coating that cause the very weak attachment of fouling organisms. For example, silicone based coating. Fouling deterrence marine

organism not known for fouling like corals are use. Mobile hull cleaning is also being use operationally 2) Ballast water discharge: On board treatment of chemical (chlorination), physical treatment (Ultra violet light, heat treatment), filtration and cyclonic separation, shore base treatment is sometime being used but not common. Operational mitigation based on information of biological difference between coastal ocean water where ballasting and deballasting is done accordingly. 3) Air emission: Sulfur reduction in bunker fuel. Nitrogen reduction to choice of propulsion system (retrofit). On board emission control retrofitting system like, water injection, emulsion operationally speed reduction and use of shore power connection can be implemented a) Ship to be scrap may contain on-board consumables hazardous wastes. Unless subjected to prior cleaning, these substances will follow the vessel to the ship breaking facility. Most ship dismantling occurs in developing countries. The Basel Convention controls the trans-boundary movements and disposal of hazardous wastes. Up to now dismantling sites have been chosen by ship owners on a commercial basis. This has resulted in ship dismantling activities today being mainly performed in a few developing countries (India, Bangladesh and Pakistan with increasing interest in China, Vietnam and the Philippines) where there is little or no alternative employment for the workforce and where safety, health and environment regulations applicable in most of the developed countries are not applied. The dismantling procedures used can result in hazardous conditions for

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Table 4. Environmental impact and response (EU, 2002).

Environmental impact

Mitigation science

Mitigation response

More energy and power means more emission

Maximum fuel efficiency

environmental friendly retrofit and hybrid design, use of alternative energy

Antifouling

Harmless

Biocide free technology

Ballast water

Zero biological invasion or transfer of alien species

Segregated ballast tanks, improved ballast water tank design, ballast water treatment, ballast water data base

Sea mamma Interaction

Maneuverability capability

Safer ship structure design, Improve maneuvering capability, Navigation aid, misinformation, exchange, reeducation

Accident

Able officer, Ship structure, Integrity

New monitoring through port sate control

Fire

Harmless

Halon phase out

Wave wash of high speed marine craft

Zero inundation and spray ashore

Moderation of hydrodynamic force

the workforce and both local and global pollution of the environment. This issue concern related to ship dismantling has been raised in the UN, and the potential for improvements in ship dismantling is believed to be significant and important environmental aspects for ship at the end of their life. Methods used at present in the ship demolition industry to recover the values represented by scrap materials themselves create contamination and pollution. The discharge of gases from cutting and burn-off operations presents a threat to the environment as well as to the individuals exposed. Important environmental aspects of concern with ship breaking are Cathodic protection (Al, Zn), Batteries (Pb, Cd, Ni and sulphuric acid) Coatings and paint (PCB, Cu, Zn, Cl and TBT), Fire fighting agents, Refrigerants dichlorodifluoromethane (Freon-12), and chlorodifluormethane (R22), Thermal insulation (asbestos, PCB), The hull and large steel structures (Fe), Electrical system (Cu, PVC, PCB, Pb, Hg), m. Hydrocarbons and cargo residues. Ship collision prevention (safety and environmental prevention, protection and control measure) Most accident is attributed to a flagrant controllability problem. They remain the classic impetus necessary to make improvements to safety and environmental protection. There is need to ensure adequate vessel maneuverability perhaps better matching of vessel, channel, and operational practices. 1) Ship maneuverability as major iterative element of design spiral: Ship maneuverability is not considered

particularly important during the design process. Because owners generally do not include maneuverability requirements as part of the design specification; Firm deep- and shallow/restricted water maneuvering standards that can be applied during the design process should be established. 2) Modeling and simulation: Collection of data using dual frequency differential global positioning system (DGPS) receivers and proper analysis needs to be supported to enable unlocking understanding of restricted water operations. Antifouling a) Toxic approach uses other metals such copper and zinc, or agrochemicals for example, triazines b) Fouling release is confronted by the use physical properties of low surface energy coating that cause the very weak attachment of fouling organisms. For example, silicone based coating c) Fouling deterrence marine organism not know for fouling like corals are use d) Mobile hull cleaning is also being use operationally Ballast water discharge a) On board treatment of chemical (chlorination), physical treatment (Ultra violet light, heat treatment), filtration and cyclonic separation, shore base treatment is sometime being used but not common. b) Operational mitigation based on information of

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Table 5. Reduction potentials (NTNU, 2005).

Primary measures:

Secondary measures:

1.Use of low sulfur fuel â&#x20AC;&#x201C; (less than 6 g/kwh) 2.HFO sulfur content - Need for oil company to change their equipment for low sulfur oil production-> shipowner will face high cost, additive solution has been expensive so far 3. Reduction of NOx, SOx, + cost saving through boiled off gas reuse.

Operationally 1.On board Catalytic system like: Converter, water injection Emulsion

1. Exhaust gas cleaning system or technology Sox for SECA (Emission Control Area) & Fuel change over. 2.Nitrogen reduction through choice of propulsion system 3.Sulfur reduction -in bunker fuel

2.speed reduction (10 to 20%). 3.Use of shore power connection

Retrofitting for existing engines

For new engines

1. Use of NOx injectors.

1.Engine certification

2.Retarding timing

2.Pre-certification,

injection

3. Temperature control of the charge air.

4.Final certification 4. Dual fuel option for low sulfur restricted areas (1.5-4.5), this comes with need for additional tanks.

4.Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) 5.Fuel / water emulsion

4.Reliquification plants for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)/Liquified Petroleum Gas(LPG) carriers

5. The content of hydrocarbons in the exhaust gas from large diesel engines depends on the type of fuel, the engine adjustment and design.

5.Use of Turbo generator plant â&#x20AC;&#x201C;> Paticulate matter (PM)- SAC volume is the void space in the fuel valve downstream of the closing face

6.Water injection 7.Humid air motor (HAM) technique- addition of wet steam to the engine 50% reduction 8.Selective reduction (SCR)

biological difference between coastal ocean water where ballasting and deballasting is done accordingly.

like, water injection, emulsion d) Operationally speed reduction and use of shore power connection can be implemented

Air emission

Ship to be scrap may contain on-board consumables may hazardous wastes

a) Sulfur reduction in bunker fuel b) Nitrogen reduction to choice of propulsion system (retrofit) c) On board emission control retrofitting system

3.Technical file clarification on engine family and group,

Unless subjected to prior cleaning, these substances will follow the vessel to the ship breaking facility. Most ship dismantling occurs in

catalytic

5.Alfa Lubricator system 6.Reduction in cylinder oil consumption-> reduction in particulate emission 7.Electronic control engine Programmed fuel injection for exhaust valve emission reduction 8. Use of high efficiency air flow for power take off reduces fuel and reduction of emission.

developing countries. The Basel Convention controls the transboundary movements and disposal of hazardous wastes. Up to now dismantling sites have been chosen by ship owners on a commercial basis. This has resulted in ship dismantling activities today being mainly performed in a few developing countries (India, Bangladesh and Pakistan with increasing interest in China, Vietnam and the Philippines) where there is little or no alternative employment for the workforce and where safety, health and

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Table 6. Development coalition control services model (Pedersen, 1992).

Model

Environmental performance

Kutsuro Kijima

Showed a modeling approach that permitted analysis of passing situations of vessels in waterways that would help set procedural standards for safe passing vessels in port.

IanDand

Reported on the development of models for ship squat model those have shown very good accuracy over the years.

Larry Daggett

Described the advent of dual frequency DGPS receivers and their role in gathering full-scale ship trial data. In addition to the excellent horizontal accuracy of the normal DGPS receiver, these receivers provide vertical location with an accuracy measured in centimeters.

environment regulations applicable in most of the developed countries are not applied. The dismantling procedures used can result in hazardous conditions for the workforce and both local and global pollution of the environment. This issue concern that is related to ship dismantling has been raised in the UN, and the potential for improvements in ship dismantling is believed to be significant. Important environmental aspects for ship at the end of their life. Methods used at present in the ship demolition industry to recover the values represented by scrap materials themselves create contamination and pollution. The discharge of gases from cutting and burn-off operations presents a threat to the environment as well as to the individuals exposed. Important environmental aspects of concern with ship breaking are: a) Cathodic protection (Al, Zn) b) Batteries (Pb, Cd, Ni and sulphuric acid) c) Coatings and paint (PCB, Cu, Zn, Cl and TBT) d) Fire fighting agents e) Refrigerants dichlorodifluoromethane (Freon-12), and chlorodifluormethane (R22) f) Thermal insulation (asbestos, PCB) g) The hull and large steel structures (Fe) h) Electrical system (Cu, PVC, PCB, Pb, Hg) i) Hydrocarbons and cargo residues MAJOR FINDING AND BEST PRACTICE GREEN SHIP TECHNOLOGY Environmental technology also becomes a serious issue of environment represent start of another revolution in human history. Today environmental technology product and services are booming. The major environmental aspects related to maintaining machinery and auxiliary systems are oil (additives), coolants, gases, electrical/ electronic waste, seals, insulation, and scrap-metals. The maintenance system shall design targets strategies that

provide continuous improvement of existing procedures and routines. Improvements in maintenance are mainly motivated by cost reduction, and increased operational reliability and safety conside-rations, but often have positive environmental conse-quence in addition. Table 5, 6 and 7 shows some resent environmental performance products. A number of promising developments that exist today are shown in Figures 3 and 4. For green ship project, conventional wastes and emissions must be control according to the present strategy for treating or eliminating these wastes using the aforementioned principle behavior of system (Pedersen et al., 1992). Green house emission green technology Recent critical environmental revolt such as the issue of the rising sea levels and floods has brought about a sense of awareness with regards to environmental degradation. There is an increased awareness that everything on this planet is interconnected. Water will flow to the rivers through the ground and eventually end up in the sea. This makes the management of the quality of water and air, the balance of their purity and the prevention of the substance running into them a crucial point in protecting the environment from further deterioration (IMO, 2000). High pressure associated with air pollution due to the rapid climate change, led IMO diplomatic conferences to the new Annex VI, Chapter III which deals with the requirements for the control of emissions from ships including (IMO, 2000): i) Regulation 12: Ozone depletion substances ii) Regulation 13: NOx iii) Regulation 14: SOx iv) Regulation 15: Volatile organic compounds v) Regulation 16: Shipboard incinerator vi) Regulation 17: Reception facilities vii) Regulation 18: Fuel oil requirement viii) Regulation 19: Requirement for platform and drilling rigs.

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Table 7. Environmental performance technology (NREL, 2008).

Product 200-Ton air-conditioning plant conversion kit

Waste pulpers

Target

Environmental performance

Ozone substances:

The CG-47and DDG-51 plants have been successfully converted to the ozone-friendly refrigerant HFC-236fa where conversion kit has been established by Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (NSWCCD).

safe

Solid waste: Solid

OWS oil water separator (OWS) and Bilge water Polishers

Liquid waste

The pulper is the machine into which you dump tremendous quantities of paper, cardboard, or food waste. The waste mixes with seawater to form slurry, which is then discharged overboard. Studies show an immediate 100,000-to-1 dilution when discharged into the wake of a ship. Ships equipped with a pulper can dispose of their paper, cardboard, and food waste just about anywhere and at anytime at sea including MARPOL areas. These bilge cleaners the US Navy uses, it contain long-lasting emulsifying agents, which produce stable oil-in-water emulsions that shipboard OWSs cannot effectively process.

Valve gauge

Valve gauge assembly developed by NSWCCD the ring-gauge isolator to improve the reliability of sanitary waste system sewage transfer-pump suction and discharge gauges [8]. Figure 2 shows the valve gauge assembly.

Integrated discharge system

NRL plan for concept where ultrafiltration membrane systems would concentrate bilgewater, graywater, and sewage (as previously described); the clean effluents would be discharged; and the concentrates would be evaporated/incinerated in a thermaldestruction system (Figure 3)

liquid

(a)

Therma destruction

(b)

Figure 3. (a) diaphragm assembly valve assemble (b) Ring gauge valve isolator assembly (NSWCCD, 2008).

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Figure 4. Integrated liquid discharge system concept (NREL, 2008).

Table 8. Emission and reduction measures (NTNU, 2007).

Category

Components

Sources

Current method of reduction

Emission to air

COx SOx

Machineries/incinerator/boiler Machineries/incinerator/boiler

Operational and energy efficiency measures Low sulfur fuel exhaust washing

NOx

Machineries/incinerator/boiler

Exhaust cleaning, engine modification, or input media

Machineries/incinerator/boiler

Exhaust gas recirculation

Noise

Machineries/cargo operations

Insulation

Particles

Machineries/incinerator/boiler

Electronics lubrication and injection

HFC/Halon

Fire extinguisher / refrigeration system

vapor return, recovery plant

VOC

Cargo operation

Sequential loading

Fossil fuel is considered as the single largest contributor to emissions. Apart from the NOx and SOx regulation which has been introduced, COx smoke emission is likely to be regulated. To facilitate the adoption to emission regulations, operators, officers, engine builders, yards and ship-owners are doubling their efforts to adopt new technologies to make this earth a better place to live in. However of late, the issue became increasingly serious with the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in its 60th session on 22 to 26 March, 2010 concluding that more work needs to be done before it could finalized the proposed mandatory application of technical and operational measures which was designed to regulate and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from international shipping. IMO has been waiting for the outcome of the COP 15 before they hit the industry with the new emission regulations where unilateral options for the maritime industry were being considered. The technical and operational measures which was adopted includes the interim guideline on the methods of calculation and the voluntary verification of

the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new ships, which will stimulate innovation and the technical development of all the elements influencing the energy efficiency of a ship, as well as the guidance on the development of a Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan for all ships in operation. Table 8 shows potential achieve-ment to implementation of the technology (IMO, 1997; Psaraftis, 2009). The main area to meet emission reduction targets, Machinery WHR, scrubbers, EGR, etc. i) Propulsion: Propellers, rudders, trim optimization, etc. ii) Operations: Route planning, performance monitoring, etc. iii) Logistics: Better interaction between transport forms, envelopment development /modification of existing ship types etc. Tables 8 and 9 show strategies to reduce air pollution from ship. In respect to operations, companies have used

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Table 9. Machineries.

Waste heat recovery system

A. P. Møller – MAN, Aalborg Industries, Odense Lindø Shipyard

Exhaust Gas Recirculation system

MAN, A.P. Møller

Water in fuel emulsion (WIF)

MAN and A. P. Møller

6. Use main engine exhaust gas heat that contains hot energy that is transformed to steam. The steam can be used for cargo and fuel heating power generation - 714% of fuel can be saved from heat recovery system (Hinrich, 2004)

NOx is formed at high temperature; therefore, its formulation can be reduced by lowering the temperature in the system. Exhaust gas can be recirculated, where some is mixed scavenge air to reduce the oxygen content, and consequential reduction in temperature in the system. The technology has potential to reduce Nox by 80%.

Reduction of 30 to 35% NOx can be achieved by adding water to the fuel before injection

Aalborg Industries and DFDS

This technology can be used to control future regulation of SOx release. The scrubber use water to wash the sulfur out of the exhaust gas. Testing of the system has shown SOx reduction of 98% and simultaneous reduction of harmful particle late matter are reduced by 80%.

Optimization of pump system and cooling systems

DESMI, APV, Odense Lindø, Grontmij Carl-Bro

20% electrical power generation reduction can be achieved by using optimized cooling water system. Also 90% power saving, can be achieved can be reduced through reduction in pump resistance. Pump size can also be reduced via this technology

LNG for aux. engines and gas turbines

Mols-Linen and DTU

Most diesel engine in harbor run in diesel, by using switching to LNG to run auxiliary engine under fuel arrangement, 20% of Cox35% of NOx can be achieved

Scrubbers

Selective Catalytic Reduction

Turbo charging with variable nozzles

Dansk Teknologi and Danish Navy

MAN and ABB

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voyage planning, •marine Institution established student forum that focus on green ship technologies, other arrangement at sea include introduction of ‘Green shipping’ in the working procedures onboard and implementation of constant focus on energy saving possibilities on the ships. In respect to logistics better transport planning, better tools for evaluation of the most, energy efficient transport forms and better cooperation between the transport providers are current practice that are working to reduce pollution (Murphy, 1996).

Figure 5. Maersk line.

Figure 6. Magneto electric system model (UMT, 2010).

i) Another best practice is the case of MASRK ship a 8500 TEU container vessel, optimised with (Figure 5) waste heat recovery exhaust boilers, power and steam turbine technology ii) Water in fuel technology (WIF), exhaust gas recycling (EGR), exhaust gas scrubber extra costs 30 mill USD (approx 10% of new building costs). iii) Waste heat recovery exhaust boilers iv) Power and steam turbine technology v) Water in fuel technology (WIF) vi) Exhaust gas recycling (EGR) vii) Exhaust gas scrubber extra costs 30 mill USD (approx 10% of new building costs) The goals were to have -30% reductions of CO2 emissions, achieved result include 11 to 14 to 90% reduction of NOx emissions-achieved 80 to 90% reduction of SOx emissions-achieved 90%. Figure 6 shows a magtoelectric waste energy recovery system modeled numerically at UMT, while Figure 7 shows the amount of additional energy which can be produced from the system (Sulaiman, 2009). The system offers flexibility in optimizing plant operations to minimize operation costs or maximize propulsion power. The use of these sets is considerably reduced thereby providing a further potential to reduce operating costs. Regulatory prediction process

(a) Carbon capture

(b) Recovered power

Figure 7. Magneto electric model result (UMT, 2010).

Figure 1 shows risk based process for system regulatory requirement. However, based on risk analysis outcome, regulation influence can be predicted and quantified by assigning a numerical weighting value to each link between factors. Future system will require design based on risk that matches system functionality with requirement. The ship design spiral shown in Figure 8 does not include most of the process described earlier, and some will require mandatory insertion in the spiral. Figure 9 show expected regulatory compliance for standards acceptability IMO model. Figure 10 shows cost benefit analyses that can be deduced from potential consequence in risk of do nothing. In estimation of regulation, the concordant process require expert rating which is translated into the weighing factors, this weighting can be placed on factors at a lower

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Figure 8. Ship design spiral (NRL, 2008).

Figure 9. High Level goal standard assessment.

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D if e r e n t b e t w e e n c o s t o f p o lu t io n c o n t r o l a n d e n v iro n m e t a l d a m a g e

M in im u m s u m o f c o s t

C o s t o f p o lu t io n c o n t r o l

H ig h d a m a g e c o s t w it h n o c o n tro l

N o e c o n o m ic g a in f ro m p o lu s io n c o n t r o l

C o s t o f d a m a g e f ro m p o lu t io n

M in im u m s u m o f c o s t

Figure 10. Cost and sustainability components.

level in the diagram, factors at a higher level that are influenced by that lower level factor, and also by assigning a numerical "rating" value to every factor. The weighting values between factors quantify the relative importance of the influence of lower level factors upon higher level factors. Weighting values are assigned as percentages on a scale of zero to 100%, such that for any factor at a higher level, the sum of the weightings of all the lower level factors which influence the higher level factor is 100%. This is otherwise described as Concordia principle. W1 + W2 + W3 + W4 = 100%

(1)

Where W1, W2, W3, & W4 are the weightings linking factor E1, E2, E3, & E4 to factor P1. Consider the environmental level factors which link with the first policy level factor, P1. Say these environmental level factors are E1, E2 and E4. Let the weightings of these environmental factors on the first policy level factor be W (E1, P1), W (E2, P1) and W (E4, P1) respectively. Furthermore, let the respective ratings of these factors be R (E1), R (E2) and R (E4. W (E1, P1) W (E3, P1) W (E2, P1). A calculated rating value for factor P1 is derived as being: Figure 8 shows the regulatory requirement to achieve design goal. R(P1c) = R(E1) x W(E1,P1) + R(E2) x W(E2,P1) + R(E4) x W(E4,P1) (2) Figure

10 shows cost and sustainability analyses

instrument graph. The way forward Recent safety and environmental strategic focus on developing metrics to measure and evaluate progress, the key to issues and actions are is to be incorporated in the clean ship concept. Ships owner and operators must understand the need to include wastes stream management in mission requirement in the design stages, with the goal of ships being in compliance. Ship designer must pursue technologies to reduce or eliminate waste streams. The metrics use to monitor progress towards achieving environmentally sound ships will focus on shipboard pollution control equipment installations, specifically the planned versus actual installations. Each waste stream or environmental pollutant, equipment installations, the percentage of total installations completed versus the planned percentage, will be used as a measure of progress for that waste stream. For waste streams and contaminants for which no equipment has been approved or anticipated, the metric will born many R&D for necessary findings. There is need for effectively integration of pollution prevention and safety into the design and life cycle of our ships, systems, ordnance into the execution of our processes, and into the operation. Managing the whole process is another thing; environmental management can be optimizing by incorporating the following concept in our system. Table 10 shows potential marine technology research are for waterborne transportation, this include Total cost minimization concept, innovative safety and environmental strategy management and integration planning for uncertainty and risk, use of probabilistic and holistic methods, education

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Table 10. Propulsion.

New paint systems

Advance Rudder and propeller system

Speed nozzle

Choosing right antifouling paint with low water friction is beneficial to reduce ship resistance and subsequencial saving of fuel of 3 to 8%, hence proportional reduction of emission.

Hempel

MAN and ABB

Modern ruder design that combine propeller with asymmetric ruder called costa bulb, efficient propeller design provide smooth slipstream from the proper to the rudder, and asymmetry rudder rotational energy is utilized more efficiently.

MAN and ABB

Nozzle are used to improve the bollard pull on tugs, supply vessel, fishing boats and other vessel which need high pulling power at low speed. Speed nozzle are modern nozzle with improve propulsion power at service speed. The technology has reduction capability up to 5%

Table 11. Marin technology and research areas for waterborne transportation.

Marine technology areas

Efficient, safe and environmentally friendly ships and vessels of the future

Need

Improvement of concepts of multi-site design, engineering or environmental kindliness production

Maximizing interoperability, transshipment and vessel performance

Improvement of port infrastructures, reducing operating costs, improving maneuverability of ships in restricted waters and ports and efficient cargo handling and transshipment.

Innovative technologies for monitoring, exploration and sustainable exploitation of the sea

Development unmanned surveying, insitu monitoring and industrial operation.

Competitive shipbuilding

Hull design to reduce environmental impact from loss of structural integrity, fuel consumption through hull form optimization, wave / wash generation, corrosion noise and vibration and use of new material.

Technology platforms fast vessels for passengers, cars and cargo; - deep-sea ships for passengers and unit cargo; - deep-sea floating structures for production storage and off-loading of gas; - unmanned, autonomous and remotely operated survey vehicles; and - new concepts for short-sea operations and polar shipping. Research is focusing on integrating advanced concepts for unitised cargo and for ship types operating in coastal, restricted and limited waters. The strategic aim is to demonstrate concepts for multimodal cargo units and reinforcing intermodal links to ease improve and facilitate cargo flows between inland waterways and the sea.

Research is helping to demonstrate streamlined and seamless vessel development processes and systems, and support advanced production systems which improve customer response, product quality and manufacturing process flexibility and control

Sulaiman et al.

and training. CONCLUSION Working better by working together This paper discussed environmental technology issue and potential research direction for green technology for ship. Beside miniaturization, use of nature and system integration will be next in line in the process for system to work efficiently. Even thus, the environment has naturally integrated everything in this planet between air, water and soil. The same apply to maritime industry on the issue of safety and marine environmental impact control and protection. Environmental issue has become so sensitive because it is more or less of evidence that nature has exercise enough patience, impact has reach flash point and those who are knowledgeable about the behavior of matter and environment have been giving predictive data about potential of contagious chain reaction of climate change and potential consequential heavy calamity damage and lost. Existing engine and future engines will be forced to adapt new technologies presented in this paper in the near future. Green technology highlighted in this paper will be a major catalyst to ignite a series of research activities to solve the current energy and environmental problems. Data collected from such research will be utilized to enforce relevant climate change control and compliance laws. The data can be used for simulation purposes and support the deployment of new systems. The evolving technology discussed could help meet the current demand by IMO for the implementation of Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), Ship Energy Efficient Management Plan (SEEMP) and Ship Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (SEEOI) rules which was launched recently towards global warming, climate change and ozone depletion in the maritime industry. The following are recommended for future technological compliance to regulation: 1. It is important for the main players in marine time industry (pilots, regulators, channel designers, simulator experts and ship operators) to share experience regarding differences in rules and design requirement for clean system. 2. Among regulators it is important to review rules that are taken too light, most of which are currently being implemented unilaterally because of variability in environment. 3. Naval architects and ship handlers alike should take the importance of GHG, green ship issue, risk based design and ship maneuvering unrestricted in ship design process. It is important o integrate design requirement related to this in ship design spiral. 4. Tackling the issue of environment equally required hybridizations of all the methodology we have been using

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reactive process. The use of proactive approach that consider sensitivity of area, degrees of hazard for various ship types, and of course employment holistic institutionalized risk based system design method that compare and consider trend analysis of every elements of the new sustainable technology system development is recommended. The political will for green technology is a wakeup call for all ship owners to be ready for new regulatory regime that will dictate technology for ship. Green ship technology will also be main factors for shipper and ship charters and insurance company look looking for in order to make decision for future business deal. Adoption of green ship technology will define significant ship, award winning vessel and qualification of green passport of next generation ship. That ship will be able to go anywhere and will face no delay in their transportation activities. REFERENCES Barry A (1993). Wade and Denise Forrest Improving Company Profitability and Public Image - The Money Index #370. pp.25-29. Bian H, Mario D, Ivar K, Anik MF (2000). Technologies for reduced environmental impact of ships. Shipbuilding, maintenance and dismantling, Proc. ENSUS`2000, UK. pp.2-24. De Leeuw F, Moussiopoulos, N, Bartanova A, Sahm P, Pulles, T, Visschedijk A (2001). Air quality in larger cities in the European Union. A contribution to the Auto-Oil II programme. Topic report 3/2001.European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark. (www.eea.eu.int). Environmental Management Systems (EMS) (2000) Policy and Strategy Working Group “Major Country” Research Report (CWIP/CR3) 4/1/ Erik.Ranheim. Shipping and the Environment GHG Emissions from Ships the Industry’s Perspective. The European Maritime Day. Cyprus 2009 EU (1996). Eco-Management and Audit Regulation – Roszell Hunter, GESAMP (1993). Impact of oil and related chemicals and wastes on marine environment. GEAMP reports and studies No50 joint group of expert of marine pollution. Available at: http://www.gesamp.imo.org/no65/ Hinrich S (2004). Less Emission through Waste Heat Recovery, Wartisilla Switzerland Ltd. Huey DJ (1997). Green Plans Greenprint for Sustainability. IMO (1997). International Convention on the Prevention of Pollution at sea, 1973, consolidated edition, IMO London. Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development. (1999) Canada IMO (1980). International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships) and Protocol MARPOL 73/78 (1978). See especially Annex I, Regulation 10: Special Areas, and Regulation Reception Facilities. IMO (1998). Annex VI of MARPOL 73/78: Regulations for the prevention of air pollution from ships and NOx technical code. Publication IMO-664E. London,UK. IMO (1998). Guidelines for the Designation of Special Areas under Marpol 73/78 andGuidelines for the Identification and Designation of Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas. Assembly Resolution A.927(22). th IMO (2000). Marine Environmental Protection Committee” 44 session available at: http: www.imo.org/meeting/44.html. IMO (1998a), MARPOL Focus on IMO. Intertanko (1998). Reception facilities for tankers. Intertanko. Oslo. Kågeson P (1999). Economic instruments for reducing emissions from sea transport. The Swedish NGO Secretariat on Acid Rain, European Federation for Transport and Environment and European Environmental Bureau, Brussels Karma RA, Morgan KZ (1975). Energy and environment cost–benefit

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analysis: Supplement o an international journal. Georgia Institute of Technology. London pp.491-507. Landsburg AC, Card JC, Crane JC, lman PRA, Bertsche WR, Boyleston JW, Eda H, McCallum VF, Miller IR, Taplin A (1983). Design and Verification for Adequate Ship Maneuverability. SNAME Transactions. p.91. MARPOL. International Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships (73/78). .Naval Research Lab news. Available at http://www.navyseic.com/solid/solid.htm. accessed in 2008 MSA (1995). Project 366: Formal Safety Assessment: Draft Stage 1 Report. Marine Safety Agencies. Southampton. February. 2002. Murphy (1996). Variable speed drives for marine electric propulsion, Trans IMarE 108(2):97-107. Norwegian Maritime Directory (NMD). (2008). Rules and Regulations, Standards and Guidelines Pedersen C, Nielsen JA, Riber JP, Madsen HO, Krenk S (1992). Reliability based inspection planning for the TYRA fields. Proc. 11th International Conference-OMAE II:255-263 Psaraftis HN, Kontovas CA (2009), Ship Emissions: Logistics and Other Tradeoffs,â&#x20AC;? International Marine Design Conference (IMDC 2009), Trondheim, Norway.

Ronald Begley. Value of ISO 14000 (1997). Management Systems Put to the Test. Environmental Science and Technology News 31:8. Slocombe NDS (1993). Environmental planning, ecosystem science, and ecosystem approaches for integrating environment and development. Environmental Management. Sulaiman O, Fakrudeen W (2010). Manoelectric Recycle Energy for Sustainable Marine Power Plant. University Malaysia Terengganu. Tarrason L, Klein S, Benedictow V Rigler E, Posch S (2003). Transboundary acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone in Europe. Status Report. EMEP. Part III. By Oslo, Norway. (www.emep.int). Watson DGM (1998).Practical Ship Designâ&#x20AC;?. Elsevier. NewYork WHO (2003). Health aspects of air pollution with particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen Dioxide. Reporton a WHO Working Group, January 2003. WHO.

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Appendix. IMO Conventions. 1. Convention on the International Maritime Organization (IMO CONVENTION) (in force); 2. 1991 Amendments to the IMO Convention which were adopted by the Assembly of the Organization on 7 November 1991 by resolution A.724 (17) (IMO AMENDS -91) (in force); 3. 1993 Amendments to the IMO Convention which were adopted by the Assembly of the Organization on 4 November 1993 by resolution A.735 (18) (IMO AMENDS-93) (in force); 4. International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974, as amended (SOLAS 1974) (in force); 5. Protocol of 1978 relating to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974, as amended (SOLAS PROT 1978) (in force); 6. Protocol of 1988 relating to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974 (SOLAS PROT 1988) (in force); 7. Agreement concerning specific stability requirements for Ro-Ro passenger ships undertaking regular scheduled international voyages between or to or from designated ports in North West Europe and the Baltic Sea (SOLAS AGR 1996) (in force); 8. Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, 1972, as amended (COLREG 1972) (in force); 9. Protocol of 1978 relating to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973, as amended (MARPOL 73/78) 10. Annex III to MARPOL 73/78 (in force); 11. Annex IV to MARPOL 73/78 (in force); 12. Annex V to MARPOL 73/78 (in force); 13. Protocol of 1997 to amend the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973, as modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto (MARPOL PROT 1997) (in force); 14. Convention on Facilitation of International Maritime Traffic, 1965, as amended (FAL, 1965) (in force); 15. International Convention on Load Lines, 1966 (LL 1966) (in force); 16. Protocol of 1988 relating to the International Convention on Load Lines, 1966 (LL PROT 1988) (in force); 17. International Convention on Tonnage Measurement of Ships, 1969 (TONNAGE 1969) (in force); 18. International Convention Relating to Intervention on the High Seas in Cases of Oil Pollution Casualties, 1969 (INTERVENTION 1969) (in force); 19. Protocol relating to Intervention on the High Seas in Cases of Pollution by Substances other than Oil, 1973, as amended (INTERVENTION PROT 1973) (in force); 20. International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage, 1969 (CLC 1969) (in force); 21. Protocol to the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage, 1969 (CLC PROT 1976)

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(in force); 22. Protocol of 1992 to amend the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage, 1969 (CLC PROT 1992) (in force); 23. Special Trade Passenger Ships Agreement, 1971 (STP 1971) (in force); 24. Protocol on Space Requirements for Special Trade Passenger Ships, 1973 (SPACE STP 1973) (in force); 25. Convention relating to Civil Liability in the Field of Maritime Carriage of Nuclear Material, 1971 (NUCLEAR 1971) (in force); 26. Protocol of 1992 to amend the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1971 (FUND PROT 1992) (in force); 27. Protocol of 2000 to the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1972 (FUND PROT 2000) (in force); 28. Protocol of 2003 to the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1992 (FUND PROT 2003) (in force); 29. International Convention for Safe Containers (CSC), 1972, as amended (CSC 1972) (in force); 30. Athens Convention relating to the Carriage of Passengers and their Luggage by Sea, 1974 (PAL 1974) (in force); 31. Protocol to the Athens Convention relating to the Carriage of Passengers and their Luggage by Sea, 1974 (PAL PROT 1976) (in force); 32. Protocol of 1990 to amend the Athens Convention relating to the Carriage of Passengers and their Luggage by Sea, 1974 (PAL PROT 1990) (not yet in force); 33. Protocol of 2002 to the Athens Convention relating to the Carriage of Passengers and their Luggage by Sea, 1974 (PAL PROT 2002) (not yet in force); 34. Convention on the International Mobile Satellite Organization (Inmarsat), as amended (INMARSAT C) (in force); 35. Operating Agreement on the International Mobile Satellite Organization (Inmarsat), as amended (INMARSAT OA) (in force); 36. Convention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims, 1976 (LLMC 1976) (in force); 37. Protocol of 1996 to amend the Convention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims, 1976 (LLMC PROT 1996) (in force); 38. International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watch-keeping for Seafarers, 1978, as amended (STCW 1978) (in force); 39. International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watch-keeping for Fishing Vessel Personnel, 1995 (STCW-F 1995) (not yet in force); 40. International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue, 1979 (SAR 1979) (in force); 41. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts

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against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA) (in force); 42. Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms Located on the Continental Shelf (SUA PROT) (in force); 43. Protocol of 2005 to the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA 2005) (not yet in force); 44. Protocol of 2005 to the Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms Located on the Continental Shelf (SUA PROT 2005) (not yet in force); 45. The International COSPAS-SARSAT Programme Agreement (COS-SAR 1988) (in force); 46. International Convention on Salvage, 1989 (SALVAGE 1989) (in force); 47. International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation, 1990 (OPRC 1990) (in force); 48. Protocol on Preparedness, Response and Cooperation to Pollution Incidents by Hazardous and Noxious Substances, 2000 (OPRC-HNS 2000) (in force); 49. Torremolinos Protocol of 1993 relating to the Torremolinos International Convention for the Safety of Fishing Vessels, 1977 (SFV PROT 1993) (not yet in force); 50. International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea, 1996 (HNS 1996) (not yet in force); 51. International Convention on Civil Liability for Bunker Oil Pollution Damage, 2001 (BUNKERS 2001) (in force); 52. International Convention on the Control of Harmful Anti-fouling Systems on Ships, 2001 (AFS 2001) (in force); 53. International Convention for the Control and Management of Shipsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Ballast Water and Sediments, 2004 (BWM 2004) (not yet in force); 54. Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter, 1972, as amended (LC 1972) (in force); 55. 1996 Protocol to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter, 1972 (LC PROT 1996) (in force); 56. Nairobi International Convention on the Removal of Wrecks, 2007 (NAIROBI WRC 2007) (not yet in force).

Instruments which are in force or applicable but which are no longer fully operational because they have been superseded by later instruments1 1. International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1948 (SOLAS 1948) 2. International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution of the Sea by Oil, 1954, as amended (OILPOL 1954) 3. International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1960 (SOLAS 1960) 4. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, 1960 (COLREG 1960) 5. International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1971 (FUND 1971) 6. Protocol to the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1971 (FUND PROT 1976). Instruments not yet in force and not intended to enter into force 1. International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973 (MARPOL 1973) 2. Torremolinos International Convention for the Safety of Fishing Vessels, 1977 (SFV 1977) 3. Protocol of 1984 to amend the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage, 1969 (CLC PROT 1984) 4. Protocol of 1984 to amend the International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage, 1971 (FUND PROT 1984).

African Journal of Business Management Vol. 7(2), pp. 119-124, 14 January, 2013 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM DOI: 10.5897/AJBM11.2739 ISSN 1993-8233 ÂŠ2013 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Research on management decision and evaluation system based on parallel management Long Yun-An1* and Zhao Xuefeng2 1

School of Economics and Trade of Xihua University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China, 610000. College of Architecture and Civil Engineeringďź&#x152;Being University of Technology. No100 Pingleyuan Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100124, China.

Accepted 28 February, 2012

Parallel management is channeled when complicated and systematic projects are decided and evaluated. Its method and process are applied to management decisions and evaluations. Traditionally, large-scale management decisions are depending on decision support system and enterprise evaluation system. However, it will be more complex to use system simulation and simulated management. Moreover, such process can not be in long-term process. Therefore, it is necessary to implement parallel management principleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s methods and experiences in management decisions and evaluations. Under such circumstance, this paper focuses on parallel management principles and makes further studies of its method and experience. Then, parallel management decision support system (PMDDS) is developed. We try to offer some theory achievements and practical experiences for future researches. Key words: Parallel management, management decision evaluation, decision support system, parallel management decision support system (PMDDS).

INTRODUCTION Nowadays, both the theory and method of parallel management system have gained key breakthroughs based on parallel management theory. Meanwhile, great improvements have been obtained in practice. Such as basic ideas, concepts and operation framework of parallel system method (Wang, 2004), which has been a workable way to manage and control complicated systems. Social computation and parallel management system which has been an important research subject in 22 strategic technology issues in 2050 technology roadmap. Hence, researches related with such field will be still a hot subject and attract wide attention. Recently, parallel management is mainly applied to simulate and control complicated systems. Such as process monitoring and behavior management in engineering and construction, composition control in agriculture and manufacture industry, fire prevention and

*Corresponding author, E-mail: long1997@126.com.

control, security control in urban rail transit, analysis and warning in social emergency system, national strategic analysis and so on. Besides, PMS is used in these fields. However, no matter how complicated the system is, it is crucial to undertake management decisions and evaluations in the project implement. Through overall analysis of the objective condition and system variables, inherent system conclusions and methods will be found in the end. In existing parallel management studies, great achievements have been gained in system mode, analysis and parallel execution. At the same time, it has won good theory accumulations and social benefits. Nevertheless, no practical systematic results will appear in the evaluation of management decisions and economical efficiency. In this paper, we analyze parallel management of complicated systems including electricity, traffic and petrochemical industry. The result indicates that most systems continue to use standard method system, artificial system, computational experiments, parallel execution (ACP) and theory system to make studies.

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However, no further studies are related to decision intervention, decision feedback, system evaluation and risk evaluation in theory method of parallel management principle. Therefore, this paper focuses on parallel management, and applies its ideas and methods to the process of management decisions and evaluations. Through the comparative studies, Parallel management decision support system (PMDDS) is developed on the basis of JEE and former researches (Wang, 2004). Furthermore, operational problems in the practice of parallel management are solved.

for simulation and optimization so as for system adjustment and optimization, which is just lacked for PMS’ studies. Management decision is comparatively popularized and DSS is widely applied by enterprises since 1970s (Yunfeng, 2011). In order to undertake artificial system, scientific evaluation and system optimization in complicated enterprises’ management strategies, Parallel management ideas and methods should be implemented in DSS and evaluation. Meanwhile, evaluation system in management decision and parallel implement system should be combined closely so that Parallel Management Decision Support System (PMDDS) can be established, which can offer theoretical guidance and application tools. On the basis of such system, subjective decisions can be changed into computationally evaluated, simulated, executable, testable and adjustable system structure and promote management decision’s development.

METHODOLOGY The study principle and methods of parallel management are put forward by Chinese Science Academy Automatic Institute which combines artificial intelligence with control management. It is a theoretic system which establishes model according to artificial systems, stimulates with computers and undertakes in parallel way. As a framework, parallel management is suitable for model establishment, analysis, control and management for complicated systems. Generally, we name it as parallel management if ACP theory is applied into complicated production system. When ACP theory is put into practice, usually, it is processed as follows:

Parallel management in management decision, evaluation mechanism and work process

1. Establish a suitable model system and form artificial system’s framework. 2. Use computing simulative method and software technology to design corresponding computational way. Besides, computer experiment simulation is adopted to analyze practical system and study its disciplines. 3. Artificial system and real system execute in a parallel way and control the practical situation.

Regarding studies on management decision, different scholars put forward different theories and methods due to their own interests, experiences, behavior preferences and so on. Generally, modern management decision is established based on numbers of scientific methods. It formulates by logistic decisions or implement of certain mathematical model algorithm. However, the key point for decision origins from practice. If the decision-maker has a higher macro control of the decision objects, the decision results will be more scientific. Quantitive methods usually formulate based on certain mathematical model while the mathematical model needs certain variables and impact factors. The most difficult step in modern management decision is to select models and decision factors. In reality, many models may be adopted to carry out the self-adapting comparison. But it is far way from management decision’s requirements. As per Simon’s theory (Simon 2012), management decision and evaluation can be divided into four procedures.

System based on ACP can be expressed as Figure 1. Modern management decision method is an essential technology in the manufacturing and organizing of modern large-scale enterprises. In order to improve management performance and realize high coordination as well as reasonable allocation of resources, it is widely used in practical production. Certain evaluations will follow the application of management decisions. Through the evaluation of causality and management decision performance, and adjustment of methods and process, the management decision will be optimized. In the whole process, it will relate to management decision items, decision schedule, system execution and evaluation of results. Decision support system (DDS) is produced by management decision itself while modern computer method is adopted. It also uses practical data, data model and knowledge system to supply the decision-makers with environment for analyzing problems, setting up models and simulating decisions and help them improve their decision standard and quality. The structure of modern DSS is shown in Figure 2. Obviously, we can find the following problems after comparing the system principles of property management system (PMS) with DSS: 1. DSS is fit for those topics with medium complexity while PMS has a wider applicability. 2. DSS only contains computer model guidance while no artificial system. It applies partial functions in computational simulation of PMS. 3. After PMS is in parallel process, interference factors are needed

As mentioned previous, it is a must to set up a systematic work mechanism when parallel management method is applied in management decision. Besides, its work process should be structured so that PMDDS can be formed.

Management decision and evaluation mechanism based on parallel management

1. Intelligence activities. 2. Design activities. 3. Selection activities. 4. Evaluation activities. Actually, management decision activity is a coherent activity no matter it is social system or enterprise system. It desires continuous decisions, adjustments and optimizations. In the light of management viewpoint from complicated systems, management decision activity is partially optimized and simulated. Parallel management principle requires study artificial system firstly, which is a little different from management decision method based on numbers. Management decision often focuses on one model and one management decision item. However, parallel management has systematic continuity. It gives consideration to complicated system’s diversity and its changeable laws. If we put principles and methods of parallel management into management decision, a management decision and evaluation mechanism will be formulated on the basis of parallel management.

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Practical system Computational base software environment

Social system behavior system social resources system complexity

Implement

Optimize and feedbacks

ć&#x2030;§čĄ&#x152; Artificial system{A}

Computational experiments{C}

Parallel implement {P}

Production skills manage requirements organization regulations object structures

Figure 2. The structure of modern DSS Figure 1. System based on ACP.

Date base system

Method base system

Model base system

User interface system Figure 2. The structure of modern DSS.

Design for management decision and evaluation mechanism based on parallel management Artificial system in management environment Management is an artificial environment behavior. The concept of artificial system is used to describe the management process of an enterprise which has many diversities and possibilities. It sets theoretic foundation for quantitive computation, analysis and evaluation of subjective factors, like management regulations, management standard and so on. The primary step to set up management decision is to form corresponding artificial system while project complexity and social complexity model factors are included in artificial system. Project complexity means physical environment in an enterprise. Its model can be expressed by mathematic language. Such as chemistry, power, thermal conductivity and other model can be used for workflow design and process improvement. Orbital calculation

model can be used for missile flight design. Logistic scheduling model can be used for warehouse management and warehouse system. Social complexity should take subjective will into great consideration. Meanwhile, it should pay much attention to psychological function, role behavior and creative function in social activities. For example, if we want to achieve scientific management, system decision and scientific evaluation in a complicated enterprise management, we can describe them through its employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; behavior effects on their departments, production systems, salary design systems and performance systems. Systematic approach, AGENT learning, and multiple AGENT information exchange derived model is needed in order to realize social complexity computation. Most factors which affect social complexity are non-numerical, such as rules and regulations, management standards, policy environment, etc. Structural system scope should depend on certain model tools like decision tree while calculating.

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Figure 3: Test structure of computing systems Interface Request

Client

JSP presents logic

Forward request

Operating level

Triggered Response events

XmlData Exchange

XmlData Exchange Data backup

Strategy, data get, artificial intelligence

Event

XML Resolve Time space type grab

Data analysis

EJB

Business Components

Database Data warehouse Application server

Analysis report Database server cluster Figure 3. Test structure of computing systems.

ďź&#x2C6;3ďź&#x2030;Parallel executive system

Artificial system can be established through the analysis of project complexity and social complexity. Once it is set up, computational experiments in management decisions can be done.

Selection activities confirmation by computational experiments in management decisions After artificial system, we should go on selection activities for management decisions. It means do selection activities by the implement of mathematical models and computational methods while parallel management is used. Parallel management system is a natural extension and upgrade of computer simulative studies and self-adapting control with referential model. So, simulation requirements and imitation should be formal and normalization. However, computational system should simulate two objects seriously in reality. (A) Changes in the type of materials like chemical reaction, physical vapor, etc. (B) System impact and design control. In realistic simulation, human-computer interaction with software interface is needed to express various data, strategies and acquire of some decision factors. In the research, we developed s system based on JEE supportive environment (Yunfeng 2011). This system uses Extensible Markup Language (XML) comprehensively which can extend marked language as date exchange intermediary. The construction of the system is shown in Figure 3.

Parallel executive system After artificial environment and computational experiment structure

are set up, practical management decision and artificial system will be implemented in parallel way. During this procedure, each selection in the management decision will be simulated on artificial system. Meanwhile, simulative conclusion can be drawn by computational experiments. The DSS efficiency and feedbacks will be obtained in practical system. The feedback of parallel implement will be concluded, absorbed and decided by PMDDS so as to off decision guidance and behavior proofs and decision efficiency evaluation.

STRUCTURE AND APPLICATION OF PARALLEL MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (PMDDS) According to the study of management decision and evaluation mechanism based on parallel management (Sheth 2012), we developed PMDDS which conducts decision analysis and formulates decision results and basis based on decision process of parallel management. PMDDS consists of the following subsystems: 1. Artificial system: Artificial computing system environment is formed by the input of system variables and model establishment of environment. Just as mentioned before, system expressing ways are accompanied. 2. Computational experiment system: Using algorithm and software support environment to formulate

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Figure 4. Stucture of PMDSS. Computational experiment system

Artificial system

Real environment

Simulative environment

Parallel implement time comparison base Feedback

Feedback Decision result

Knowledge base

Figure 4. Stucture of PMDSS.

After two years of development and adjustment, PMDSS has gained computational experiment environment. It aims at simulating artificial systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s running and gaining corresponding results. 3. Contrast of parallel implement for practical system and artificial system, PMDDS makes comparasion with the digital results, saves and abstract the simulative results which is consist with reality. Hence, a comparative results base will be put forward which should add time dimension comparison. Then, a data base should form based on time series. If long-time data are fitting and the differences are reduced to one ratio, it indicates the simulative system is quite real and has real effect. 4. Evaluation system for decision results: Using data from the comparison to evaluate the results after parallel implement. Besides, comparative evaluation is made between practical decision results and simulative decision results. Then, quantitative report of decision result is drawn in order to judge the advantages and

disadvantages. 5. Knowledge library: All historical decision projects are in this knowledge library and forms decision knowledge in case of looking up in the future. Structure of PMDSS is shown in Figure 4. After two years of development and adjustment, PMDSS has gained practical applications and experiences. China Five Star Appliance Group, which is the biggest consumer electronics retails for BESTBUY and ranks 67th in fortune 500 companies (Wang, 2010), has tried this primary system and expressed its practical results as follows: The biggest problem that Chinese BESTBUY faces is logistics delivery. As a management decision system, logistic system should take service standard and low costs into consideration. Otherwise, it cannot manage optimized management. Parallel executive system is set up in appliance

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logistics industry after engagement process of implement projects by research group. Meanwhile, the results for key logistic system in two years are supervised and channeled into PMDSS. Through PMDSS’ adjustment and optimization, optimazation program for row of cars and worker schedule are eventually achieved. During these two years, economical benefits are gained a lot due to such system. Such as 1 million RMB has saved in logistics costs, 16 billion has saved in social resources, etc. Conclusion Parallel management decision method is significant both in the theory and practice. It is formed with parallel management ideas. The application of parallel management in management decision perfects practical application results. Besides, the application of parallel management ideas has been widened greatly with PMDSS. Both decision process and decision results can be recorded, which strengthens decision efficiency in practical process. Regarding this study, more studies and expansions are needed in the following aspects: Existing DSS and prototype of computer simulative system. How to apply project methods to parallel management decision system quickly? 1. Evaluation index is significant for system operation and stack result. Therefore, it will be an important study orientation to study parallel management decision method and evaluation standard. 2. During the model establishment and computation for complicated systems, the complexity of management decision proposition is increasing rapidly which is difficult for computational methods and system simulative technology. 3. Existing PMDSS is prototype system and needs popularization and wide application. As a processing method, parallel management is being popularized and applied recently, especially in society. This study involves many subjects and has a wide perspective with a higher system complexity which is an important. It is the key way to solve social issues in largescale companies. Even though PMDSS is adopted, we still have much work to do. This system will surely promote parallel management to guide management decision and evaluation application.

Last but not least, we would like to thank Chinese Academy of Social Computing and Parallel Management Research Center for their support. Also, our thanks go to Professor Zhou who comes from Nanjing University for his support. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Supported in part by Natural Science Foundation Youth Project: 70903002 and Natural Science Foundation General Project: 71173099. Supported in part by TransCentury Training Program Foundation for Talents of Humanities and Social Science by the State Education Commission, 2011. REFERENCES Sheth A (2012). A new landscape for distributed and parallel data management. J. Distributed and Parallel DATABASES. 2:101-103 Simon D (2012). The globalization of scientific research. J. Iss. Sci. Technol. 2:10-11 Wang FY (2004). Parallel system methods for management and control of complex systems．Control. Decis. 19(5):485-489. Wang FY, Lansing JS (2004). From artificial life to artificial societies：new methods for studies of complex social system. J. Complex. Syst. Complex. Sci. 1(1):33-41. Wang JW (2010). A comparison of shareholder identity and governance mechanisms in the monitoring of CEOs of listed companies in China. J. China Econ. Rev. 1:24-37 Yunfeng P (2011). Management of Non-functional Attributes of Parallel Components, Procedia Comput. 4:461-470.

Full Length Research Paper

Global banking survey: A new era of customer satisfaction with reference to India S. Suriyamurthi1*, V. Mahalakshmi 2 and M. Arivazhagan1 1

Shivani School of Business Management, Navallur kuttapattu, Trichy-9, India. 2 JJ College of Engineering and Technology, Trichy, India. Accepted 9 October, 2012

Banking sector in India is facing a rapidly changing market. In today’s competitive environment relationship marketing is critical to banking corporate success. Banking is a customer oriented services industry and Indian banks have started realizing that business depends on client service and the satisfaction of the customer. The banking system occupies an important place in nation’s economy. It plays a pivotal role in the economic development of a country and forms the core of the money market in an advanced country. Banks have to deal with many customers every day and render various types of services to its customer. It's a well known fact that no business can exist without customers. “In recent years, the banking industry around the world has been undergoing a rapid transformation. To address the challenge of retention of customers, there have been active efforts in the banking circles to switch over to customer-centric business model. The success of such a model depends upon the approach adopted by banks with respect to customer data management and customer relationship management. Over the years, Indian banks have expanded to cover a large geographic and functional area to meet the developmental needs. They have been managing a world of information about customers - their profiles, location, etc. They have a close relationship with their customers and a good knowledge of their needs, requirements and cash positions. The main objective of this study is to find the interrelationships between service quality attributes, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty banking sector, close relationship. Key words: Service quality, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty.

INTRODUCTION Indian banking industry is one of the largest in the world. There has been a great surge in efficient customer services. A highly satisfied and delighted customer is a very vital non-financial assest for the banks in the emerging IT era. The curtsey, accuracy and speed are like a crown factors for a bank. The liberalization, privatization and globalization has ushered the customer relationship management in banks. The process of globalization and our move towards global standards changed the perception of customer service, and the banking endeavor to serve the customer better, resulted in innovative banking services and products. Banks are looking for

*Corresponding author. E-mail: deansuriya@yahoo.com.

more and more interaction with customers to build customer relationship banking. But to deliver an improved and in-depth understanding of customers needs, and fully integrated customer management system is required along with complete transparency. In the emerging market scenario, for survival and growth, it is critical for a bank to align its vision, mission, goals and objectives with customer‘s satisfaction. Literature review Without a sound and effective banking system in India it cannot have a healthy economy. The banking system of India should not only be hassle free but it should be able to meet new challenges posed by the technology and any

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other external and internal factors. For the past three decades, India's banking system has several outstanding achievements to its credit. The most striking is its extensive reach. It is no longer confined to only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact, Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of India's growth process. The government's regular policy for Indian bank since 1969 has paid rich dividends with the nationalization of 14 major private banks of India. Not long ago, an account holder had to wait for hours at the bank counters for getting a draft or for withdrawing his own money. Today, he has a choice. Gone are days when the most efficient bank transferred money from one branch to other in two days. Now it is simple as instant messaging or dials a pizza. Money has become the order of the day. The first bank in India, though conservative, was established in 1786. From 1786 till today, the journey of Indian banking system can be segregated into three distinct phases. INDIAN BANKING SECTOR IN 2010 The last decade has seen many positive developments in the Indian banking sector. The policy makers, which comprise the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Finance and related government and financial sector regulatory entities, have made several notable efforts to improve regulation in the sector. The sector now compares favorably with banking sectors in the region on metrics like growth, profitability and non-performing assets (NPAs). A few banks have established an outstanding track record of innovation, growth and value creation. This is reflected in their market valuation. However, improved regulations, innovation, growth and value creation in the sector remain limited to a small part of it. The cost of banking intermediation in India is higher and bank penetration is far lower than in other markets. India‘s banking industry must strengthen itself significantly if it has to support the modern and vibrant economy which India aspires to be. While the onus for this change lies mainly with bank managements, an enabling policy and regulatory framework will also be critical to their success. The failure to respond to changing market realities has stunted the development of the financial sector in many developing countries. A weak banking structure has been unable to fuel continued growth, which has harmed the long-term health of their economies. In this ―white paper‖, we emphasize the need to act, both decisively addressed, could seriously weaken the health of the sector. Further, the inability of bank managements (with some notable exceptions) to improve capital allocation, increase the productivity of their service platforms and improve the performance ethic in their organizations could seriously affect future performance. Customer satisfaction is one of the important outcomes of

marketing activity (Oliver, 1980; Surprenant and Churchill, 1982; File and Prince (1992) argued that the customers who are satisfied tell others about their experiences and this increases WOM advertising. In this way, banks can increase customers. Spreng and Mackoy (1996) and Mick and Fournier. (1997) argued that profit and growth are stimulated primarily by customer loyalty and loyalty is a direct result of customer satisfaction. In the competitive banking industry, customer satisfaction is considered as the essence of success. Caruana et al (2000) developed a meditational model that links the service quality and service loyalty via customer satisfaction and applied this model in the retail banks in Malta. The results appear to prove the links between service quality, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. According to Hofstede (2001), most of the Asian cultures (like India, Pakistan) are collectivist [People in the collective cultures discriminate in groups (relatives, institutions and organizations) and out-groups]. In this case, word of mouth (WOM) advertisements are important for the banks. Prabhakaran and Satya (2003) mentioned that the customer is the king. High customer satisfaction is important in maintaining a loyal customer base. To link the service quality, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty is important. Kumar et al. (2009) stated that high quality of service will result in high customer satisfaction and increases customer loyalty, and Naeem and Saif (2009) found that customer satisfaction is the outcome of service quality. CUSTOMER SATISFACTION ―Customer satisfaction, a business term, is a measure of how products and services supplied by a company meet or surpass customer expectation. It is seen as a key performance indicator within business and is part of the four of a balanced scorecard. In a competitive marketplace where businesses compete for customers, customer satisfaction is seen as a key differentiator and increasingly has become a key element of business strategy‖. According to Oliver (1980), the customer satisfaction model explains that when the customers compare their perceptions of actual products/services performance with the expectations, then the feelings of satisfaction have arisen. Any discrepancies between the expectations and the performance create the disconfirmation. The working of the customer's mind is a mystery which is difficult to solve and understanding the nuances of what customer satisfaction is, a challenging task. This exercise in the context of the banking industry will give us an insight into the parameters of customer satisfaction and their measurement. This vital information will help us to build satisfaction amongst the customers and customer loyalty in the long run which is an integral part of any business. The customer's requirements must be translated and quantified into measurable targets. This

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provides an easy way to monitor improvements, and deciding upon the attributes that need to be concentrated on in order to improve customer satisfaction. We can recognize where we need to make changes to create improvements and determine if these changes, after implemented, have led to increased customer satisfaction. It serves to link processes culminating purchase and consumption with post purchase phenomena such as attitude change, repeat purchase, and brand loyalty (Surprenant and Churchill, 1982). This definition is supported by Jamal and Nasser (2003) and Mishra (2009). "If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it." - Lord William Thomson Kelvin 1824-1907.

The need to measure customer satisfaction Satisfied customers are central to optimal performance and financial returns. In many places in the world, business organizations have been elevating the role of the customer to that of a key stakeholder over the past twenty years. Customers are viewed as a group whose satisfaction with the enterprise must be incorporated in strategic planning efforts. Forward-looking companies are finding value in directly measuring and tracking customer satisfaction (CS) as an important strategic success indicator. Evidence is mounting that placing a high priority on CS is critical to improved organizational performance in a global marketplace. With better understanding of customers' perceptions, companies can determine the actions required to meet the customers' needs. They can identify their own strengths and weaknesses, where they stand in comparison to their competitors, chart out path future progress and improvement. Customer satisfaction measurement helps to promote an increased focus on customer outcomes and stimulate improvements in the work practices and processes used within the company. When buyers are powerful, the health and strength of the company's relationship with its customers – its most critical economic asset – is its best predictor of the future. Assets on the balance sheet – basically assets of production – are good predictors only when buyers are weak. So it is no wonder that the relationship between those assets and future income is becoming more and more tenuous. As buyers become empowered, sellers have no choice but to adapt. Focusing on competition has its place, but with buyer power on the rise, it is more important to pay attention to the customer. Customer satisfaction is quite a complex issue and there is a lot of debate and confusion about what exactly is required and how to go about it. This article is an attempt to review the necessary requirements, and discuss the steps that need to be taken in order to measure and track customer satisfaction.

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Service quality and customer satisfaction There is a great deal of discussion and disagreement in the literature about the distinction between service quality and satisfaction. The service quality school view satisfaction as an antecedent of service quality - satisfaction with a number of individual transactions "decay" into an overall attitude towards service quality. The satisfaction school holds the opposite view that assessments of service quality lead to an overall attitude towards the service that they call satisfaction. There is obviously a strong link between customer satisfaction and customer retention. Customer's perception of service and quality of product will determine the success of the product or service in the market. If experience of the service greatly exceeds the expectations clients had of the service then satisfaction will be high, and vice versa. In the service quality literature, perceptions of service delivery are measured separately from customer expectations, and the gap between the two provides a measure of service quality. Expectations and customer satisfaction Expectations have a central role in influencing satisfaction with services, and these in turn are determined by a very wide range of factors; lower expectations will result in higher satisfaction ratings for any given level of service quality. This would seem sensible; for example, poor previous experience with the service or other similar services is likely to result in it being easier to pleasantly surprise customers. However, there are clearly circumstances where negative preconceptions of a service provider will lead to lower expectations, but will also make it harder to achieve high satisfaction ratings – and where positive preconceptions and high expectations make positive ratings more likely. The expectations theory in much of the literature therefore seems to be an oversimplification. Banking in India Over the last four years, India‘s economy has been on a high growth trajectory, creating unprecedented opportunities for its banking sector. Most banks have enjoyed high growth and their valuations have appreciated significantly during this period. Looking ahead, the most pertinent issue is how well the banking sector is positioned to cater for continued growth. A holistic assessment of the banking sector is possible only by looking at the roles and actions of banks, their core capabilities and their ability to meet systemic objectives, which include increasing shareholder value, fostering financial inclusion, contributing to GDP growth, efficiently managing intermediation cost, and effectively allocating

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Figure 1. Performance assessment of Indian banking sector.

capital and maintaining system stability (Figure 1). Our survey of 14 leading banks in India shows that banks have done remarkably well in increasing shareholder value, allocating capital effectively, and contributing to GDP growth (Figure 2). However, in comparison to international peerâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s, Indian banks could do more to foster financial inclusion and manage intermediation costs. Our findings also highlight the clear divide between the performance of incumbents, that is, public sector and old private banks, and attackers that is new private and foreign banks, a reflection of the underlying shifts in the banking sector.

METHODOLOGY

Objectives

Data collection procedures

The objective of this research is to analyze what is relevant in achieving a successful and banking relationship, so that banks can accomplish and maintain customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s satisfaction in the new climate. Identifying and commenting in what we see is the key actions that bank must take to retain and expand their customer ease in this challenging and increasingly sophisticated market. The main objective of this research is on the interrelationships among service quality, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty in the banking sector. Therefore, the sample for this study was selected from the bank customers.

Methods of data collection In case of data collection, there are two types of data that is primary data and secondary data. Primary data: Information obtained from the original sources by researcher is called primary data. In this study primary data was collected using a Questionnaire and Interview with experts. Secondary data: Secondary data was collected from various reference books, websites and newspaper articles. Sampling segments: Customers, Bankers, Industry expert. Sample size: 100 respondents.

Sample design A sample of 100 customers who are directly associated with the banks in Chennai that is at least having accounts with the banks and operating the same on a regular basis, were selected for the purpose of the study. An equal, 50 each, number of respondents that is persons who are directly associated with banks both from rural and urban areas were considered. The information has been collected through structured questionnaire. Since the banks refused to provide the list of customers, the questionnaires were got filled up from the customer personally visiting the bank premises (Indian Overseas Bank, Indian Bank, State Bank, Icici, Canara Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, Karur Vysya Bank). The data were collected from the banks during the month of May to June 2011. Ten customers who came out of the banks on the very day were contacted. The purposes of the study were explained

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Figure 2. Performance evaluation of banking sector based on five key objectives.

and then the customer was requested to provide his/her responses with regard to the items of the questionnaire. The first part of the questionnaire consists of the general information of the respondent. Service quality attributes were used in the second part, which is the independent variable of this research. The third part of the questionnaire explains the customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s satisfaction and this is the independent/dependent variable of this research. The final part consists of customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s loyalty and this is the dependent variable of this research. The interviewers explained each part of the questionnaire to the respondents. Based on the 100 sample- bank customers, the percentage of male and female respondents were 77 and 23 respectively, which shows the male dominancy of bank customers. In the whole sample, 53% of respondents fell in the age range of 21 to 30, and 32% fell in the range of 31 to 40. In terms of qualification, the respondents are almost equal and that is, Undergraduate (31%), Graduate (33%), and Post Graduate (35%). 63% of respondents are service holder and 43% of respondents earn more.

and maximum value ranges from 2 to 7. Asurance ranges from 3.67 to 7 and the mean and standard deviation is 5.65 and 0.73, respectively. Empathy ranges from 3 to 7 and the mean is 5.49 and the standard deviation is 0.86. The minimum and maximum value for customer satisfaction is 3 to 7 and the mean and standard deviation is 5.64 and 0.90, respectively. Customer loyalty ranges from 2 to 7 and the mean and standard deviation is 5.44 and 1.02, respectively. It has been observed in Table 1 that almost all the mean are similar. High standard deviation means that the data are wide spread, which means that customers give variety of opinion and the low standard deviation means that customers express close opinion.

Hypotheses test DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS CONSTRUCTS

FOR

EACH

STUDY

Descriptive statistics Tangibility ranges from 2 to 7 with a mean of 5.64 and standard deviation of 0.769. Reliability ranges from 3 to 7 and the mean and standard deviation is 5.57 and 0.82, respectively. For responsiveness, mean and standard deviation is 5.31 and 1.03 respectively with the minimum

Pearson correlation A correlation coefficient is a very useful way to summarise the relationship between two variables with a single number that falls between -1 and +1 (Welkowitz et al., 2006). Morgan et al. (2004) stated that: -1.0 (a perfect negative correlation) 0.0 (no correlation) +1.0(a perfect positive correlation)

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Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

Parameter Customer satisfaction Tangibles Reliability Responsiveness Assurance Empathy Customer loyalty Valid N (listwise)

N 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Minimum 3 2 3 2 3.67 3 2

Maximum 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Mean 5.64 5.60 5.57 5.31 5.65 5.49 5.44

Std. deviation .90 .77 .82 1.03 .73 .86 1.02

Table 2. Pearson correlation analysis obtained for the three intervals scaled variables.

Parameter

Variable Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

CS 1 100

Tangibles

Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

.491** .000 100

1 100

Reliability

Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

.488 .000 100

Responsiveness

Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

Customer satisfaction

Tangibles Reliability .491** .488** .000 .000 100 100

Responsiveness Assurance .493** .526** .000 .000 100 100

.632** .000 100

.560** .000 100

.632 .000 100

1 100

.759 .000 100

.626 .000 100

.680 .000 100

.493** .000 100

.560** .000 100

.759** .000 100

1 100

.566** .000 100

.660** .000 100

Assurance

Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

.526** .000 100

.500** .000 100

.626** .000 100

.566** .000 100

1 100

.439** .000 100

.673 .000 100

Customer loyalty

Pearson correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N

.439 .000 100

.560 .000 100

Correlation The Pearson correlation analysis obtained for the three intervals scaled variables are shown in Table 2. The sample size (N) is 100 and the significant level is 0.01 (pË&#x201A;0.01). H1a0: There is no correlation between tangibles and customerâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s satisfaction in the banking sector. In Table 2, it can be seen that the correlation (r) of tangibles is 0.491 and the significant level is 0.01 (pË&#x201A;.01). Table 2 shows that the p-value is 0.000, which is less than 0.01. We therefore reject the null hypothesis, and concluded that there is a medium positive (r = .491)

.680 .000 100

.660 .000 100

.500** .000 100

CL .673** .000 100

.560** .000 100 **

1 100

relationship between tangibles and customer satisfaction in the banking sector. Reliability H1ba: There is a positive correlation between reliability and customer satisfaction in the banking sector. H1b0: There is no correlation between reliability and customer satisfaction in the banking sector. Table 2 shows that the correlation (r) is 0.488 for reliability and the p-value is 0.000, which is less than the significant level (0.01). Therefore, the null hypothesis is

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rejected and concluded that reliability and customer satisfaction is positively (medium) related in the banking sector.

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products with their main bank. Statistic: The average customer holds 3.1 products with the main bank, compared with a global average of 2.9. 15% of customers hold one product with the main bank, and 20% hold five or more.

Responsiveness H1ca: There is a positive correlation between responsiveness and customer satisfaction in the banking sector. H1c0: There is no correlation between responsiveness and customer satisfaction in the banking sector It can be observed in Table 2 that the correlation (r) of responsiveness is 0.493 and the p-value is 0.000, which is less than 0.01. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and it can be concluded that responsiveness is positively (medium) related to customer satisfaction in the banking sector. Assurance H1da: There is a positive correlation between assurance and customer‘s satisfaction in the banking sector. H1d0: There is no correlation between assurance and customer satisfaction in the banking sector. Table 2 shows that there is a large positive correlation between assurance and customer‘s satisfaction in the banking sector where p˂0.01 (p=0.000) and r=0.526. So, the null hypothesis is rejected.

Reasons for attrition Finding: Despite generally high levels of satisfaction with banks, Indian customers are generally leaving their main bank because of poor service. Statistic: 48% of customers who decided to leave their main bank did so because of general levels of service quality, while 35% cited product and service offerings. Personalized service Finding: Out of all the countries we surveyed, Indian customers are the most satisfied with the level of personalized attention they receive from their main bank, and the majorities are willing to pay extra for independent financial advice. Statistic: 80% consider the level of personalized attention their bank offers to be good or very good. 48% would not pay for independent financial advice, but 45% would do so for high-end investments, and a further 15% would pay for independent advice on all their investments. Channel experience

Trust and satisfaction Finding: In India, the credit crisis has had minimal impact on customer confidence in the banking industry, and customers‘ confidence in the industry appears to have grown in the past 12 months. The majority of customers are also very satisfied with the service they get from their banks. Statistic: 80% say their trust in banks has increased in the past 12 months, and 20% say their confidence has not changed. 65% score their bank four or five out of five when asked about their degree of satisfaction. Main bank relationship Finding: Indian customers tend to bank with multiple providers. Statistic: 90% of Indian customer‘s bank with more than one bank, and 45% bank with three or more providers. Product holdings Finding: Indian customers tend to hold a high number of

Finding: Customers in India are very satisfied with branches, internet banking and ATMs, and are more satisfied than most with mobile banking. Statistic: 85% are satisfied with the branch experience, 80% are satisfied with ATMs and 78% are satisfied with internet banking. 60% are satisfied with mobile banking – the highest percentage in our survey. Impact of the crisis on trust levels in financial institution - How has your confidence towards the banking industry changed over the past 12 months? In India, the credit crisis has had minimal impact on customer confidence in the banking industry and customer‗s confidence in the industry appears to have grown in the last 12 months. The majority of the customers are also very satisfied with the service they get from their banks. Stat: 75% say their trust in banks has increased in the last 12 months and 17% say their confidence has not changed. 68% score their bank four or five out of five

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when asked about their degree of satisfaction. AGENCIES: TAGS: CUSTOMERS, BANKS INDIAN BANKS CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS A survey farm global consultancy firm, Ernst and young has found that majority of retail customers is satisfied with the countries banking system and that trust has increased after its state handling of the 2008 global crisis. Unlike many other countries, India was less affected by the meltdown, mainly an account of conservative banking policies followed by the Reserve Bank of India. According to the survey, a new era of customer expectation, 75% of the retail banking customers in India said that their trust in banking industry grow in 2010. Indians have the highest level of trust and satisfaction in their banking industry. The credit crisis has had minimal impact on customer‘s confidence in the Indian banking industry, the survey said. It surveyed more than 20500 global retail banking customers of which 1000 respondents were from India. The objective of the survey was to gauge what drives customer relationship with this banks. The banking industry in mature markets has witnessed a wholesale and ongoing shift in confidence, and never before has loyalty management and personal customer attention been such an issue for the sector. In contrast, the emerging markets now offer huge opportunities for banks looking to expand internationally, as most have felt less of an impact from the credit crisis and instead have a growing middle class of customers looking to diversify their bank relationships. Rebuilding trust is a challenge for individual banks and for the industry as a whole, in particular across mature markets. Negative customer perceptions of the disruption banks have caused to the wider economy, through the under-capitalized and overleveraged practices that led to the credit crisis continue to prevail. In recent years, we have seen that being profitable is not enough. The role that banks play in supporting the wider economy has been highlighted, and a wide variety of stakeholders are now demanding a more responsible banking industry if there is to be a restoration of customer confidence. In evaluating the survey findings, the following are three key areas of focus for banks: (1) Rebuilding customer confidence; (2) Preventing customer attrition; (3) Enhancing the customer experience through service quality and use of remote channels. In today's globally competitive and highly regulated environment, managing risk effectively while satisfying an array of divergent stakeholders is a key goal of banks and securities firms. The Center works to anticipate market trends, identify the implications and develop points of view on relevant industry issues. Ultimately, it helps in meeting one‘s goals and for better competing. By 2012, most banks will be retail and commercial banking institutions serving regional or local markets. Some big

banks with strong regional franchises will divest lossmaking divisions and instead focus on their core markets and customer segments. We anticipate that many European players may eventually fall into this category. Indeed, soundness and solvency, balanced with generating returns, are the banking industry‘s new imperatives. And we believe that most commercial banks in developed markets will settle for lower risk and moderate growth in their quest to achieve high performance by 2012. We estimate that at least 30% of the banks‘ cost base will be variable by 2012, as successful banks use alliances, shared services and sourcing to manage noncore capabilities more competitively. For example, shared services arrangements with telecommunications companies and energy utilities could improve economies of scale (for both partners) and lower costs. Product innovations like so-called green mortgages, which offer discounts for energy-efficient homes, will address consumers‘ growing environmental and social concerns; surveys indicate, for instance, that customers are prepared to pay a premium for products and services that help cut carbon emissions. These and similar customer- and community-focused product initiatives will not only create new income streams but also provide banks with the opportunity to build and improve customer relationships. For example, microfinance (providing financial services to low-income customers and small- and medium-size enterprises, mostly in the developing world) is a lowvolatility lending model with limited risk that more banks are likely to adopt. Currently, between 50 and 80% of adults in many developing countries have inadequate access to financial services, along with up to 10% of the population in developed economies, according to The World Bank. So the extension of services to the bottom of the pyramid represents a market with significant growth potential. Another example of an emerging new business: Islamic banking, the provision of financial products and services in compliance with Sharia law, which prohibits charging interest. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the combined global value of Islamic assets held by governments (including sovereign wealth funds), financial institutions and individuals is approaching $1 trillion and growing at an annual rate of 10 to 15% (Table 3). Global consolidation By 2012, the world‘s banks will be managing profitability and growth under significantly higher capital, risk, liquidity and balance sheet constraints (Table 3). They will also be competing with some strong emerging-market players— banks from Brazil, Russia, China and India that have performed better during the current crisis and that will leverage the higher growth of their domestic and regional markets over the next three years to consolidate their

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Table 3. Dramatic changes in banking sector between 2008 and 2012.

Area Capital

2008 • Lower capital ratio • Low cost of equity • Securitized assets

2012 • Higher capital ratio • Higher cost of equity • On-balance sheet assets • Higher risk premiums

Risk

• Low market / credit risk premiums • Basel II Accords, International Accounting Standards—pro-cyclical • Innovation in risk derivatives • High leverage / rapid expansion • Off balance sheet / innovation • Low yield / ROA

• Lower leverage • Higher risk premiums / returns • Transparency

Liabilities

• Reliance on wholesale funding • Low cost of retail deposits

• Focus on retail deposits • Wholesale funding costs rising

Liquidity

• High market liquidity • Low average cost of funds

• Higher liquidity reserves • Counter-party risk focus

Return on equity

• Thin capital / high leverage • High performers (20 - 25%)

• Higher capital / lower leverage • High performers (10 - 15%)

Growth model

• Leverage based

• Reputation and capability based, core capabilities substantially strengthened

Assets

• Counter-cyclical provisions • Regulated risk derivatives

Note: Pro-cyclical: The regulatory system magnifies the impact of the business cycle by allowing capital requirements to fall in periods of economic growth and strong credit quality, and rise when credit quality deteriorates. Counter-cyclical: The regulatory system requires banks to hold capital or make additional provisions against default in good times to protect against losses in bad times. Source: Accenture analysis.

strengths. To be successful, all players will need to redefine their business scope—bolstering core businesses and finding optimal exit strategies for the rest. This will demand exceptional post-merger integration skills for the next three years and beyond. Beyond 2012, we foresee a fundamentally reconfigured banking industry: an environment of technology-enabled banking ―ecosystems,‖ where non-bank players and peerto-peer networks will compete with mainstream providers to service the needs of ever more demanding consumers. The high performers will be those that can overcome the immediate challenges and maximize the opportunities presented by the dramatically changed banking landscape of 2012. In the more distant future, the new banking virtues— sustainable profitability, renewed customer-centricity and a more realistic approach to risk—will be more important than ever. Conclusion In today‘s competitive environment relationship marketing

is critical to banking corporate success. Banking is a customer oriented services industry and Indian banks have started realizing that business depends on client service and the satisfaction of the customer. This is compelling them to improve customer service and build relationships with customers. It is a well known fact that no business can exist without customers. In a developed country, customer service, like any aspect of business, is a practiced art that takes time and effort to master. All we need to do to achieve this is to stop and switch roles with the customer. What would you want from your business if you were the client? How would you want to be treated? Treat your customers like your friends and they will always come back. In short, the domestic economy is an increasing pie which offers extensive economies of scale that only large banks will be in a position to tap. With the phenomenal increase in the country's population and the increased demand for banking services; speed, service quality and customer satisfaction are going to be key differentiators for each bank's future success. Thus it is imperative for banks to get useful feedback on their actual response time and customer service quality aspects, which in turn will help them take positive steps to maintain a competitive edge. The competitive land-

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scape. It is clear from our research that enhancing individual customer relationships is critically important to future competitive success. In the wake of the credit crisis, banks need to continually review their strategies, business models and routes to market to ensure that they are responding to customer expectations. REFERENCES Caruana A, Money AH, Berthon PR, (2000). Service quality and satisfaction- the moderating role of value. Eur. J. Market. 34(11/12):1338-1352. File KM, Prince RA (1992). Positive word-of-mouth: Customer satisfaction and buyer behavior. Inter. J. Bank Market. 10(1):25-29. Hofstede G (2001) Culture‘s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, and Organizations Across Nations (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Jamal A, Nasser K (2003). Factors influencing customer satisfaction in the retail banking sector in Pakistan. Int. J. Commerce Manag. 13(2):29. Kumar M, Kee FT, Manshor AT (2009). Determining the relative importance of critical factors in delivering service quality of banks: an application of dominance analysis in SERVQUAL model. Manag. Serv. Qual. 19(2):211-228. Mick D, Fournier S (1999),‖ Rediscovering Satisfaction‖, J. Market. 63(4):5. Mishra AA (2009). A study on Customer Satisfaction in Indian Retail Banking. IUP J. Manag. Res. 8(11):45-61.

Morgan GA, Leech NL, Gloeckner GW , Barret KC (2004). SPSS for introductory Statistics: Use and Interpretation Second Edition. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Publishers:111-124. Naeem H, Saif I (2009). Service Quality and its impact on Customer Satisfaction: An empirical evidence from the Pakistani banking sector. Int. Bus. Econ. Res. J. 8(12):99. Prabhakaran S, Satya S (2003). An insight into Service Attributes in Banking Sector. J. Serv. Res. 3(1):157-169. Spreng R, Mackoy R (1996). ‗An Empirical Examination of Perceived Service Quality and Satisfaction‘, J. Retail. 72(2):201-215. Surprenant C, Churchill G (1982), ―An investigation into the determinants of customer satisfaction‖, J. Market. Res. 19(4):491. Welkowitz J, Cohen BH, Ewen RB (2006). Introductory statistics for the Behavioral Sciences. (6th ed.). New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Full Length Research Paper

University experts’ knowledge acquisition: Investigating knowledge engineering system approach Sana'a Abdul Karim Al –Khanak Department of Human Resource Development, Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, University Technology Malaysia, Jalan Semarak, 54100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. E-mail: sanalkhanak@yahoo.com. Accepted 21 December, 2012

Since knowledge plays a vital role in all acts of contemporary organizations, one of the main purposes of expert systems and artificial intelligence applications is to capture the expert’s knowledge and make it accessible to everyone. This study attempts to investigate a Knowledge Engineering System (KES) model, which proposes a set of elements and processes that facilitates this function. Data are gathered via questionnaires administered to academics staff in selected universities in order to spot their attitudes towards KES elements and determine the appropriate components and operations for the proposed KES, as well as to consider the extent to which all its factors are accepted by the respondents. The findings reveal that the respondents possess various levels of information and experience in certain aspects of the proposed KES, and adopt various practices which help significantly in the system implementation. Key words: Knowledge acquisition facility (KAF), academic expert, information technology system components, knowledge engineering (KE), knowledge-base. INTRODUCTION In today‟s rapidly changing world, the information and communication technology ICT has been of interest to educators, researchers and policymakers in the field of education (Cok and Bakirr, 2010). Therefore, most organizations in general and universities in particular, seeking today to take advantage of ICT, not only to manage and sustain the various sources of knowledge which they possess, but also to extract the tacit knowledge which experts, scientists and professors have in their minds, and convert this to explicit knowledge. In order to acquire this knowledge, structure it and store it in the organization‟s knowledge-base for easy reference whenever the need arises, organizations resort to engineering thought and principles as well as information technology and artificial intelligence systems to find automated ways to extract, store and retrieve knowledge. The idea of knowledge engineering expert systems is adopted based on two main prospects: one is the need for knowledge and expression of beneficiary or user. The other is the possessing of knowledge experts and academics that are constantly working to provide

knowledge in various forms, such as books, articles and consolation. Elicitation of knowledge from experts and other resources started manually, or through the assistance of computer, by which knowledge engineer extracted knowledge and entered it in the knowledge base (Zahedi, 1993). There were various attempts by scholars to develop a software that uses knowledge of the proposed field to solve problems in that area essentially by gaining similar solutions directly from those experts with experience in the same field. The period spanning the 70s and mid-80s saw important developments in knowledge engineering technology, notably the development of new programming techniques (Harmelen and Fensel, 1995). Newell and Simon (1972) attempted to produce an intelligent computer called Problem Solving which ran through a series of steps. Feigenbaum and McCorduck (1983) contribution was considered to be one of the most important transitions in the methodologies and modeling evolution of knowledge engineering when he developed a product in building a

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knowledge-base called DENDRAL and MYCIN at the Stanford University Hospital to help doctors accelerate their diagnosis and treatment for diseases that required rapid attention. Although the initial NE was founded during the seventies and eighties of the last century, actual development took place in this field during the early 90s, a period which bridged the gap between an informal conceptual model and the design of an executable system (Harmelen and Fensel, 1995). According to Turban et al. (2011a), KE could infer knowledge engineering from two perspectives; the first is narrow and the second is wide. The broad perspective view is related to a special process in artificial intelligence systems. The narrow perspective is concerned with NE deals with knowledge extracts, representation, validation, reasoning, clarification and maintenance. On the other hand, Knowledge engineering system KES consists of three basic elements: information technology (IT) (O‟Brien and Marakas, 2009; Laudon and Laudon, 2007; Dym and Levitt, 1991; Elliott, 2004), people (Waterman, 1986; Medsker and Tan, 1995; Feigenbaum, 1977) and processes (Gaines, 1990; Schreiber et al., 2000; Turban et al., 2005; O‟Brien and Marakas, 2007). The current study determines the basis of the combined three main elements of KES (related IT, people and processes) in conceptual model, since previous researches focused on some of these elements of KES separately. The proposed KES are concerned with the process of extracting knowledge, especially that which is tacit in the mind of academicians, scientists and experts; and structuring, organizing and storing it in a knowledge base such that it can easily be retrieved when needed by using the tools and principles of artificial intelligence. The research problem statement is the proposed knowledge engineering system contains an integrated and consistent set of main and sub elements that enable it to achieve its goals in extracting knowledge from experts. The questions from the research problem statement are: 1. What are the respondents‟ information, practices, and experience in IT, people and processes in the proposed KES? 2. Are there significant relations between the three elements- IT, people and processes in the proposed KES? 3. What are the levels of university professors‟ cognition (information, practice and experience) with elements IT, people and processes in the proposed KES? 4. Which is the most important of the three elements in the proposed KES? To answer those research questions, the paper‟s main aim is to examine the significance of the relationship between the conceptual framework of KES which contains the three main elements and indicates the most important variables that influence the KES works in the view of the academics staff in selected universities. The study also aims to identify the views of academics experts in tertiary institutions regarding the elements of the proposed

system and its operation. LITERATURE REVIEW Knowledge engineering system Knowledge engineering, as defined by Feigenbaum (1977), is the art of bringing the principles and tools of artificial intelligence research requiring experts‟ knowledge for their solution. Turban et al. (2011a) considered the NE as an engineering discipline in which knowledge is integrated into computer systems to solve complex problems that normally require a high level of human expertise. Many contributions have been given to develop and improve KES. Swanson and Collaboratory (1999) illustrate how knowledge hidden from the public could be represented through the use of data. Turban and Aronson (1998) anticipated a knowledge engineering model which included five activities, namely, obtaining, verifying, representing, reasoning and explanation of the knowledge. Studer et al. (1998), in their research, outlined the relationship between knowledge engineering and software engineering, as well as the relationship between information integration and knowledge management. Studer and his team formulated a conceptual model that is applicable to knowledge engineering both in the present and in the future (Studer et al., 2000). The study also investigated the importance of knowledge in solving the problems facing contemporary organizations. Medsker and Tan (1995) reviewed various problems and issues, including approaches to using experts, tools, the benefits and limitations in working with multiple experts. Subsequently to advance applications and models conspicuous in knowledge engineering, Zhang et al. (2009) proposed an expert system based on knowledge engineering called the Dental Diagnostic Expert System (DDES). In addition, a hybrid knowledge acquisition strategy was proposed that would efficiently elicit knowledge from experienced dentists in order to construct medical ontology. Lai et al. (2011) used the benchmarking knowledge-based system (BKBS) to allow medical centers to develop plans on how to make improvements or adapt specific best medical practices, to increase some aspect of performance in order to overtake their competitors. In their research, Garcia-Crespo et al. (2011) indicated an ontology that represents e-business process and expert‟s knowledge jointly. The foundation of the proposed model is the concept of situation, context and behavior defined as the state of the process at a specific moment. Other contributions have attempted to depict the knowledge-based system known as ESPMS (Expert System for Process Model Selection) through various models. Also they have shown how various technologies like Fuzzy Logic, Certainty Factors, and Analytical

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Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be adopted to develop the Expert System (Khan et al., 2011). However, Bostrom and Yudkowsky (2011) elucidated that there is nearly universal agreement among modern AI professionals that Artificial Intelligence falls short of human capabilities in some critical sense. The elements of the KES

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The development engine (DE): Is used “to correct the knowledge base” if the KB analysis of some examples that are designed to be processed by the system reveals any logical conflicts. The black board (BB): Is an area in the working memory set aside for the description of a current problem and for recording intermediate results in an expert system (Turban et al., 2011a). The BB can also register assumptions and intermediary decisions.

The information technology system of KES This element contains 8 components used to implement the operation of the KES. The knowledge-base (KB): Comprises the forms of rules, facts, experiences, and beliefs. Turban et al. (2003) identify KB as the repository of knowledge accumulated that can be used to support the end-user or complex decision-making. It is a computer–accessible collection of knowledge about a subject in a variety of forms, such as facts and rules of inference, frames and objects (O‟Brien and Marakas, 2009). The knowledge acquisition facility (KAF): Is a tool for acquiring knowledge from human experts (Mckeown and Leitch, 1993), and allows the system to acquire more information about the problem area directly from the expert, or from other sources such as libraries and databases (Dym and Levitt, 1991). The inferences engine (IE): Involves the design of software to enable the computer to make inferences based on the stored knowledge and the specifics of a problem (Turban et al., 2011a). It represents the reasoning element in the system, and helps in „reasoning‟ solutions to problems addressed in the system (Dym and Levitt, 1991). In addition, there are several methods to solve the problems of logical reasoning depending on the particular circumstances of the knowledge base rules, and they include forward chaining and backward chaining. The explanation facility (EF): It involves the designing and programming of an explanation capability such as why a specific piece of information is needed by the computer or how a certain conclusion was derived by the computer (Turban et al., 2005). In other words, EF provides the user with answers to the questions „Why‟ and „How‟. The user interface (UI): Is the device or technology that allows a user to interact with a computer-based system (Elliott, 2004), and it is designed in such a way as to facilitate interaction between the system and the enduser according to his or her needs and requirements (Laudon and Laudon, 2007).

Refining system knowledge (RSK): Is the usual approach of improving the knowledge structure by testing the programme on a variety of problems (Clancey, 1984), and it is used to analyze the thinking part of the system by evaluating its success or failure, and can lead to an improvement that may result in a more effective knowledge base and thinking process (Clancey, 1984). The people Involved in KES The degree of system development, its needs and areas of benefit depend on human resources, ranging from reliance on the expert, the user (in the case of system adoption of the rules of expert introduction of knowledge to the system), and the knowledge engineer interference as a knowledge programmer. This indicates the possibility of depending on all three of them together as the main human resources in designing the system. The knowledge engineer: is a specialist who works with experts to capture the knowledge they possess and develops a knowledge-base system (O‟Brien and Marakas, 2007). Besides that, it is the knowledge engineer‟s responsibility to guide the expert during the knowledge creation process, correcting the knowledgebase, managing the knowledge encryption tools, as well as correcting the encoded knowledge-base. The expert: is one who has developed a high level of proficiency in making judgment in a specific, usually narrow, domain (Turban, et al., 2011b, p.297). The academicians, scientists, and experts are the most important sources of knowledge that supply the system; their insight about the nature of the problem, the theme and complexity are important parameters in choosing the proper expert for the system. Knowledge can be elicited from individual experts and then organized by a primary expert or knowledge engineer; also groups of experts may be used to enjoy the benefits of the interactions to produce new ideas and create more robust knowledge bases (Medsker and Tan, 1995). The user: is the beneficiary of the system. Provision of advice and counseling to the beneficiary/ user of the system, who can be a student at a university, an engineer

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working in a factory, or sales operative in a marketing company, is regarded as the core purpose for designing the KES. The processes of KES The system works through a series of operations. Knowledge acquisition: The basic model of acquiring knowledge is through the knowledge engineer‟s intermediary role between the expert and the knowledgebase of the organization (Gaines, 1990). The knowledge engineer interviews the expert to acquire his or her knowledge, encoding it for the purpose of integration in the knowledge-base and the use of Shells in the knowledge-base to get a precise indication of the knowledge status. According to Morik (1990), knowledge acquisition is transfer of knowledge into an appropriate computer representation. Validation and verification: the aspects of evaluation that seek to establish a true system, a system that works at an acceptable level of accuracy and validation of the application system specifications, such as verification of accuracy and completeness, width, depth, sophistication and realism. Knowledge representation: to organize the acquired knowledge and its incorporation in the knowledge base. There are different methods of integrating the information and knowledge in the knowledge base, but the main methods of representation are by logic, semantic arrays networks, multiple knowledge representation, and uncertainty representation. Inference processes: According to Schreiber et al. (2000), inferences are best seen as the building blocks of the reasoning machine. In software engineering terms, inferences are at the lowest level of functional decomposition, and carry out a primitive reasoning step. Inference processes are conducted through an algorithmic program that controls the process of reflection, which represents the intelligent and cognitive part of the system. Then the conclusion is reached depending on the method by which the knowledge has been represented in the knowledgebase, for instance, through forward and backward rules, inference hierarchy and case-oriented reasoning. Knowledge explanation: This process involves the designing and programming of explanation capability (Turban et al., 2005). There are several purposes for this explanation function, the most important of which is the clarification of assumptions from the operations of the system for both the user and the establisher. System developing: This involves conceiving, designing

and implementing a system (O‟Brien and Marakas, 2007). System development is achieved through the process of acquiring knowledge which, in fact, is carried on between the expert and the user as follows: the expert elicits the required data from the user, then he or she develops one model at least according to the data obtained, generates the consultation (based on the applicable formula) and feeds it to the user. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY In this study, 70 academic staff from 18 departments related to computer science were selected from 4 public universities and 3 private college universities as the sample of the expert population from whom knowledge needed was extracted. Computer science departments were selected their appropriateness to the study subject. Despite the broad age-range (27-60), most of the academics (30 %) fell into the 31-40 age- groups. The males outnumbered the females by 14 per cent (57:43). More than half (54.7%) the respondents held doctoral degrees. The research comprised a two-part questionnaire: Part 1 contained seven main questions that sought to obtain the profiles of the academics, while Part 2 contained five main questions designed to measure three aspects of knowledge (information, practice, and experience) possessed by the respondents in terms of the variables, based on Cooper et al. (2007)‟s three levels of understanding different types of knowledge within science: description, prediction, and control. The validity scale via the spearman- Brown coefficient was 0.753. In addition, SPSS program was used for statistical analysis processes such as mean, standard deviation, the correlation and factor analysis. Moreover, the sixth assumptions of the proposed KES in this study are: 1. It is a subsystem of artificial intelligence system 2. Works by group of continuing processes. 3. The system relies on engineering operations in inference and conclusion, interpretation and composition and design. 4. Subsystem of artificial intelligence systems. 5. It is one of the knowledge management systems in the organization. 6. That the development of expert systems may contribute to the development of this system. The proposed conceptual KES framework components and operations are illustrated and clarified in Figure 1. The figure shows the NES process sequence from the beneficiary to the expert and to the opposite direction.

FINDINGS To answer the first question of the study, Table 1 depicts the mean of the academicians‟ information about KES, which was 3.397. The standard deviation (SD) was 2.029, which means that the respondents had acquired a lot of information related to IT system components of the KES. Table 1 also indicates that with regard to staff practice, that pertaining to human system components was the highest (mean = 3.28, SD = 1.93). In relation to academicians‟ experience of the KES IT system components, the total mean is 3.046 while the SD is 1.668. The table also shows that the “interface” has the highest mean (3.605) with an SD of 1.95, while “machine development” has the lowest (2.584), with an SD of 1.690. The responses for the other indicators for other components

Al â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Khanak

Figure 1. The Conceptual Framework of Proposed KES. Table 1. Respondentsâ&#x20AC;&#x; information, practices, and experience in KES.

Mean and standard deviation

Variables

Information

Physical Components Human Components Knowledge Engineering Operations

Practices

Physical Components Human Components Knowledge Engineering Operations

Experience in IT system components

Knowledge-Base Knowledge Acquisition Facility Inferences Engine Explanation Facility User Interface Development Engine Black Board Refining System Knowledge

Experience in the human system components

Knowledge Engineer Expert User

Experience in knowledge engineering operations

Total

Knowledge Acquisition Validation & Verification Knowledge Representation Inference Processes Knowledge Explanation Development of the system

3.726(2.296) 3.433(2.199) 3.033(2.219) 3.397(2.029) 2.70(1.980) 3.28(1.93) 2.86(2.06) 2.974(1.84) 3.024(1.777) 3.102(1.977) 2.636(1.844) 3.291(2.296) 3.605(1.953) 2.584(1.690) 2.976(1.823) 3.150(1.809) 3.046(1.668) 3.297(2.012) 3.532(2.300) 3.527(2.030) 3.452(1.909) 3.386(1.787) 3.553(2.164) 3.136(1.804) 3.320(1.963) 3.043(1.967) 2.944(2.114) 3.231(1.776) 3.214(1.576)

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Table 2. Variables communalities estimation.

Variables Information

Physical components Human components Knowledge engineering operations

Variables Code V411 V412 V413

Practices

Physical components Human components Knowledge engineering operations

V421 V422 V423

0.894 0.757 0.840

Experience in the physical components

Knowledge-base Knowledge acquisition facility Inferences engine Explanation facility User Interface Development engine Black board Refining system knowledge

V431 V432 V433 V434 V435 V436 V437 V438

0.803 0.790 0.662 0.745 0.858 0.746 0.805 0.742

Experience in the human components

Knowledge engineer Expert User

V441 V442 V443

0.819 0.657 0.701

Experience in knowledge engineering operation

Knowledge acquisition Validation and verification Knowledge representation Inference processes Knowledge explanation Development of the system

V451 V452 V453 V454 V454 V456

0.881 0.762 0.822 0.912 0.815 0.769

vary between these two extremes. In terms of expertise possessed by the academic staff in the field of humansystem-components experience of the system, Table 1 presents the mean as 3.452 and the SD as 1.909. However, the highest responses, which incidentally are very close, are for “Expert” and “User”. The data summarized in Table 1 indicate the total mean of the academicians‟ experience of KES operational components as being 3.230. The highest mean (3.553) is for the “process to confirm the reliability of the system” followed by the “process of concluding knowledge”; “development” appears to have achieved a lower mean and lesser importance among System Operations. Appendix 1 depicts that there were significant positive correlations between all the factors of the proposed KES. Out of a total of 253 correlations, 5 were below a significance ratio of 0.05; the others (248) were below 0.01. This supports the acceptance of all the elements of KES which is answer to the second question of the study. In order to examine the third question of the study, factor analysis was used for factor structure matrix via “Hotelling Principle Component analysis” for analyzing the correlation array based on factors. On the other hand,

Communalities 0.784 0.759 0.868

the “Kaiser Criterion”, which is the most common method to identify significance factors in factor analysis, was used to determine the significance factors for this study. Moreover, factors analysis enabled the achievement of the effective variables included in the proposed system, the sequence of these variables according to their importance and estimated the importance of this phenomenon (proposed system) by these variables. For the purpose of achieving estimates of the factor analysis, the research was dependent initially on the Correlation Matrix, which shows clusters of linear Correlation relationship between the researched variables, reflecting the high level of “Common Variance” within the overall system variables. To answer the third question of the study, Table 2 shows the communalities estimation for the research variables. The highest value was for “Inference Operation” (0.912), and the least was for “Expert” (0.657). To find the Simple Factor Structure by using the Hotelling Components Analysis, which is characterized by deriving maximum variation of correlation of the matrix and accepting the Kaiser Criteria for identifying these factors (extract factors whose Eigenvalues are less than one).

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Table 3. Extracted factors matrix by rotation of axes.

Variables

Variables code

Communalities 2 0.353

Information

Physical Components Human Components Knowledge Engineering Operations

V411 V412 V413

1 0.327 -

Practices

Physical Components Human Components Knowledge Engineering Operations

V421 V422 V423

0.332

0.425 0.517

0.830 0.823 0.680

Experience in the physical components

Knowledge Base Knowledge Acquisition Facility Inferences Engine Explanation Facility User Interface Development Engine Black Board Refining System Knowledge

V431 V432 V433 V434 V435 V436 V437 V438

0.495 0.608 0.603 0.666 0.732 0.589 0.775 0.790

0.584 0.408 0.416 0.515 0.462 0.475 -

0.466 0.505 0.392 0.330 0.417 0.360 -

Experience in the Human Components

Knowledge Engineer Expert User

V441 V442 V443

0.753 0.751 0.727

0.388 0.300 0.301

0.319 -

Experience in Knowledge Engineering Operation

Knowledge Acquisition Validation & Verification Knowledge Representation Inference Processes Knowledge Explanation Development of the System

V451 V452 V453 V454 V454 V456

0.724 0.542 0.514 0.502 0.330 -

0.675 0.675 0.730 0.801 0.823 0.772

Eigen value Variances Cumulative

7.097 30.858 30.858

5.628 24.47 55.33

5.464 23.759 79.087

The axis had been rotated by using „Varimax with Kaiser Normalization‟ to extract the main factors. Table 3 clarifies three factors, after seven rounds of succession. The percentage of (79.087%) interpreted the total variance value, where the highest Eigenvalue was 7.097, which formed 30.858% of the total variance; and the lowest value was 5.464 as a percentage (23.759%) of the total variance. Table 3 also demonstrates the loading of the first factor components by Orthogonal Rotation of Axes. The total number of loading components of this factor was 18; this represents 78.3% of the total components that are candidates for analysis, while the Eigenvalue of this factor was 7.097, representing the percentage of Ex-plained Variation percentage (39.858%) of the total percentages (79.087%). The total number of high-impact loading components was 15, and intermediate-impact, 3. The saturated components of this factor were +5 or more, as

shown in Table 3, since they are highly related to the importance of the experience in both components of the system and its operations. The total number of components that are loading in the second factor by Rotation of Axes was 18 of loading components of the statistical significance and a percentage of 78.3 of the total components that are candidates for the analysis. Table 3 further indicates that the Eigen value for this group was 5.628 and the percentage of Explained Variance was 24.47% of the total number of the percentage (79.087%). Nine components have a significant impact on this factor, which mostly relates to the practices of the system and experience in it. It can also be noted from Table 3 that the number of components that loaded the third factor using Rotation of Axes was 10 of statistically significant components, and accounts for 43.48% of the total components that are candidates for analysis. The value of Eigen values for this

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factor (5.484), and the percentage of the explained variance (23.759%) of the total percentages (79.087%) and (4) components with a significant impact on this factor focused on system practices. The results obtained from factor analysis support the answer of the fourth question which states the inclusion of the system with all dimensions researched, IT, People and processes with extracts of the main factors (highimpact and medium-impact variables). Conclusion For the purpose of answering the research questions of this study, the most important findings are as follows. Appropriate components and operations of the proposed KES‟s components have been identified, as well as the level of acceptance of all its factors by the academicians in the study, namely the experts (The academic staff of universities). Moreover, its potential to provide a knowledge base can be relied upon to extract knowledge from the academic staff, enhanced by the role of the cognition of the department of Information and Communication Technology in the universities to provide KES. Furthermore, all the academics in the universities selected for study have different levels of information, practice and experience in various aspects of the proposed KES, which help significantly in the system implementation. Factor analysis has indicated that the capability of the academic staff in the computer related departments in the universities to provide the KES in the field of knowledge acquisition and verification, storage and retrieval upon demand can be achieved through advanced level of information, practice and experience in all aspects of the proposed KES. The findings also show that demonstrating the three levels of importance of the proposed KES empowers the university to use any level that is appropriate based on their (the universities) objectives. The findings s that came out of the study proved the integration perspectives of the system mentioned by Turban et al. (2011a); the study also proved the validity of the IT, People and processes components contained in the KES (O‟Brien and Marakas; 2009; Medsker and Tan, 1995; Feigenbaum, 1977; Gaines, 1990; Schreiber et al., (2000). REFERENCES Bostrom N, Yudkowsky E (2011). The ethics of artificial intelligence. Ramsey W, K. Frankish (Eds.). The Cambridge handbook of artificial nd intelligence. 2 ed, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Clancey WJ (1984). Knowledge acquisition for classification expert systems. Proceeding of association for computing machinery. ACM‟84 annual conference. The fifth generation challenge. Cok M, Bakir N (2010). Need assessment survey to investigate preservice teachers‟ knowledge, experiences and perceptions preparation to using educational technologies. The Turkish Online Journal of Educational Technology- January 2020.

9(1). http://www.tojet.net/articles/912.pdf (available on 15-9-2011) Cooper JO, Heron TE, Heward WL (2007). Applied behavior analysis. nd 2 ed Pearson Education. Inc. Dym CL, Levitt RE (1991). Knowledge- Based systems in engineering. Mc Graw-Hall, Inc. USA: 15. Elliott G (2004). Global business information technology: An Integrated systems approach. Addison-Wesley. Feigenbaum E (1977). The art of artificial intelligence: Themes and case studies of knowledge engineering. Stanford Heuristic Programming Project. Memo HPP-77-25. Computer science department. Report No. STAN-CS-77-621. Accessed Jan 15, 2012. ftp://reports.stanford.edu/pub/cstr.old/reports/cs/tr/77/621/CS-TR-77621.pdf. Feigenbaum E, McCorduck P (1983). The fifth generation: Artificial intelligence and Japan‟s computer challenge to the world .MA. Addison- Wesley. Gaines B (1990). Knowledge acquisition system. Knowl. Eng. (1):66. Garcia-Crespo A, Ruiz-Mezcua B, Lopez-Cuadrado JL, GonzalezCarrasco I (2011). Semantic model for knowledge representation in e-business. Knowledge-Based Syst. (24):282-296. Harmelen FV, Fensel D (1995). Formal methods knowledge engineering. Knowl. Engineering Rev.10:345-360. Khan AR, Rehman ZU, Amin HU (2011). Knowledge-Based system‟s modeling for software process model selection. International journal of advanced computer science and applications. (IJACSA) 2(2):2025. Lai MC, Huang HC, Wangc WK (2011). Designing a knowledge-based system for benchmarking: A DEA approach. Knowledge-Based Systems. (24):662-671. Laudon KC, Laudon JP (2007). Management information systems: Managing the digital firm. Person International Edition. Mckeown PG, Leitch RA (1993). Management information systems: Managing with computers. The Dryden Press pp.3-5. Medsker L, Tan M (1995). Knowledge acquisition from multiple experts: Problems and issues. Expert Systems With Applications 9(1):35-40. Morik K (1990). Underlying assumption of knowledge acquisition as a process of model refinement. Knowledge Acquisition (2):21-49. Newell A, Simon HA (1972). Human problem solving. Englewood cliffs nj prentice-hall Prentice-Hall. O‟Brien JA, Marakas GM (2009). Management Information System. Mc Graw Hill p.598. Schreiber G, Akkerman H, anjewierden A, Hoog R, Shadbolt N, Volde WV, Wielinga B (2000). Knowledge engineering and management: The Common KADS methodology. MIT Press. Studer R, Benjamins VR, Fensel D (1998). Knowledge engineering: Principles and Methods. Data and knowledge engineering. 25, March pp.161-197. Studer R, Decker S, Fensel D, Staab S (2000). Situation and prospective of knowledge engineering. In: Cuena J, Demazeau Y, Garcia A, Treur J (eds.). Knowledge engineering and agent technology. IOS series on frontiers in artificial intelligence and applications. IOS Press. Swanson D, Smalheiser NR (1999). Implicit text linkages between midline records: Using arrow-Smith as an aid to scientific discovery, Library Trends 48(1):48-59. Turban E, Aronson J, Liang TP (2005). Decision support systems and th intelligent system. 7 ed.: p.624. Turban E, Rainer RK, Potter R (2003). Introduction to information technology. John Willey &. Sons Inc. USA p.401. Turban E, Sharda R, Delen D, Aronson JE, Liang T, King D (2011a). Decision support and business intelligence system. PEARSON p.683. Turban E, Sharda R, Delen D, King D, Aronson JE (2011b). Business intelligence- A management approach. Prentice Hall. Waterman DA (1986). Guide to expert systems. Addison –Wesley publishing co. Inc. Zahedi F (1993). Intelligent systems for business: Expert systems with neural networks. Weds Worth. Zhang H, Hu Q, Yao Y, Wang Q (2009). Design and implementation of a knowledge engineering-Based dental diagnostic expert system (DDES). Computer science and information engineering CSIE '09 Proceedings. (5):362-366.

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Appendix –1. Variables‟ Inter-Correlation

V411 V412 V413 V421 V422 V423 V431 V432 V433 V434 V435 V436 V437 V438 V441 V442 V443 V451 V452 V453 V454 V455 V456

V412

V413

V421

V422

V423

V431

V432

V433

V434

V435

V436

V437

V438

V441

V442

V443

V451

V452

V453

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**0.658 **0.691 **0.884 1

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**0.524 **0.610 **0.760 **0.871 **0.721 1

**0.411 **0.533 **0.589 **0.703 **0.615 0.837 1

**0.515 **0.589 **0.520 **0.697 **0.620 **0.810 **0.874 1

**0.360 **0.540 **0.450 **0.624 **0.436 **0.731 **0.762 **0.816 1

0.248 **0.468 **0.346 **0.500 **0.360 **0.620 **0.743 **0.740 **0.771 1

**0.434 **0.533 **0.484 **0.596 **0.500 **0.708 **0.791 **0.821 **0.766 **0.873 1

**0.465 **0.504 **0.538 **0.688 **0.507 **0.710 **0.755 **0.728 **0.739 **0.701 **0.793 1

**0.480 **0.527 **0.411 **0.594 **0.518 **0.651 **0.672 **0.744 **0.667 **0.709 **0.767 **0.816 1

**0.398 **0.485 **0.385 **0.463 **0.487 **0.498 **0.608 **0.664 **0.628 **0.607 **0.707 **0.672 **0.782 1

**0.453 **0.499 **0.476 **0.599 **0.483 **0.668 **0.737 **0.756 **0.645 **0.699 **0.810 **0.750 **0.792 **0.735 1

0.224 **0.310 0.215 **0.347 **0.348 **0.449 **0.595 **0.523 **0.458 **0.613 **0.692 **0.564 **0.612 **0.571 **0.792 1

**0.413 **0.451 **0.431 **0.526 **0.452 **0.606 **0.603 **0.639 **0.612 **0.636 **0.746 **0.637 **0.714 **0.702 **0.722 **0.654 1

**0.337 **0.429 **0.403 **0.555 **0.457 **0.659 **0.770 **0.751 **0.698 **0.743 **0.818 **0.710 **0.753 **0.769 **0.843 **0.728 **0.780 1

0.238 *0.304 **0.357 **0.510 **0.287 **0.618 **0.689 **0.668 **0.654 **0.721 **0.754 **0.663 **0.649 **0.610 **0.631 **0.530 **0.624 **0.804 1

**0.290 **0.355 **0.406 **0.517 **0.375 **0.629 **0.659 **0.672 **0.572 **0.676 **0.738 **0.670 **0.669 **0.638 **0.708 **0.596 **0.670 **0.836 **0.835 1

0.261 **0.371 **0.408 **0.524 **0.337 **0.632 **0.762 **0.670 **0.602 **0.749 **0.762 **0.720 **0.651 **0.600 **0.759 **0.636 **0.629 **0.862 **0.831 **0.875 1

0.24 **0.352 **0.440 **0.513 **0.362 **0.557 **0.714 **0.579 **0.516 **0.659 **0.651 8*0.665 **0.547 **0.535 **0.643 **0.530 **0.512 **0.737 **0.688 **0.759 **0.894 1

**0.270 **0.433 **0.525 **0.818 **0.427 **0.662 **0.666 **0.500 **0.526 8*0.020 **0.653 **0.660 **0.575 **0.494 **0.825 **0.504 **0.592 **0.688 **0.594 **0.787 **0.767 **0.774 1

Full Length Research Paper

Assessment Criteria: Exploring the missing perspectives of management development programme participants as learners in South Africa MacDonald Kanyangale Rhodes Business School, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, P. O. Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa. Email: M.Kanyangale@ru.ac.za. Telephone: +27 46 603 7476; Fax: +27 46 603 8613. Accepted 24 December, 2012

Integral to the success of any post-apartheid management development programme in South Africa is principled assessment of acquired competencies or learning achieved by the learners. This study explores how prospective Junior Managers employed in a multinational firm with operations in South Africa, actually used or did not use the assessment criteria when trying to demonstrate mastery of assessment tasks in two of the eight modules on a Junior Management Development Programme (JMDP). This programme was outsourced to a business school. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 14 successful employees on this JMDP were audio recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using an open coding and constant comparison technique. The results reflect that participants on the JMDP see the assessment criteria mainly as a tool for external use by an assessor, rather than as a pre-defined and precious basis to be internalized for use by them to judge the adequacy and quality of their own assignments prior to submission. While assessment criteria provide “cues” and “clues”, and also serve as a learning enabler, they fail to engender formative self-assessment by these participants. Assessment as learning in management development programmes inadvertently entrench threshold performance. Implications of the findings for learning and assessment in management development programmes are discussed. Key words: Assessment criteria; Management Development; Management Education. INTRODUCTION Increasingly, some organizations are outsourcing the design and delivery of their management development programmes to business schools. In the domain of scholarship of assessment, this brings to the fore what higher education can potentially contribute towards meaningful and rigorous assessment of participants in management development programmes. This goes beyond the academy to satisfy unique needs of an organization on one hand, and the requirement for accreditation of learning on the other. In the dynamic business world, managers are very critical as they try to bring a certain degree of order, consistency, and adaptability required for organizational achievement of goals, through joint or coordinated efforts with their subordinates. It is therefore less surprising that

outside the academy, the ever–changing world of business is furiously demanding that employees possess not only appropriate subject knowledge, but also the ability to learn (e.g. being lifelong learners) and high levels of transferable generic skills (e.g. creativity and an entrepreneurial approach to problem solving, independence and self-reliance etc.) to cope with change and competition (Luckett and Sutherland, 2000). Inevitably, there is an increasing use of management development programmes in organizations to “bring about greater organizational efficiencies and effectiveness through more fully engaged and skilled employees whose performance and work outputs are congruently linked to goals of the organisation” (Erasmus et al., 2011:21). The offering of a management development programme by

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the academy to an external organization with its own particular outcomes, provides challenges in itself not only in curriculum design, but also in negotiations of what remains critical in terms of assessment from an academic perspective. Echoing the notion of lifelong learning, Boud and Falchikov (2006:399) cogently argue that “whatever else [Higher Education] achieves, it must equip students to learn beyond the academy once the infrastructure of teachers, courses and formal assessment is no longer available”. Interestingly, the scholarship of assessment is very important beyond the academy as well, especially in management development programmes. Firstly, it is unique that assessment helps assessors and also employers to develop a deep understanding of what the learners know, understand, and can do with their knowledge after the learning experience. Secondly, assessment criteria also provide a clear and transparent basis for learners to know the specific evidence required to demonstrate the quality of learning achieved at the end of their learning experience. In this respect, the quality of learning by students is impacted by the way they are assessed. Existing research has investigated undergraduate students’ perspectives and evaluated the use and effectiveness of criteria referenced assessment (O`Donovan et al., 2001; Rust et al., 2003); undergraduate teacher education students` responses to criteria-referenced selfassessment (Andrade and Du, 2007); understanding of undergraduate students’ experience of criterionreferenced assessment in a public relations course, and also the use of assessment criteria as learning criteria (Xavier and Mehta, 2004). O`Donovan et al. (2001) argue that research evidence does not support the notion that merely having explicit criteria helps students to create better quality work. Beyond the academy, research has not focused on how participants on management development programmes use and evaluate the assessment criteria. Rust (2002:151) posits that “if we acknowledge the research evidence that to learn and understand students [participants] need to actively engage in some way with what is being taught, why should this be any different if we want them to understand the assessment requirements?”. This study is tolerant to multiple and subjective perspectives on the research question: “How do prospective Junior Managers actually use or not use the assessment criteria provided to them for their use?” This study is limited to two chosen modules: 1). Introduction to marketing management, and (2). Business Operations and Information Management, which are of interest in this study. This one year JMDP constituted a total of eight different modules, namely: Leadership and Management; Project Management; Basic Economics; Introduction to Marketing Management; People Management; Introduction to Strategic

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Management; Business Operations Management and Information Management; and Financial Management. These modules were “designed down” from the programme purpose. The value chain and principles of management formed the gist in thinking about the content and structure of the JMDP. Furthermore, principles of constructive alignment were followed in each of the modules to align: (1) learning outcomes, (2) teaching/learning activities, (3) assessment tasks, and (4) assessment criteria as components of a unified JMDP teaching and learning system. Drawing from the principles of competence-based assessment, the assessment criteria were used to make judgment about student performance against achievement at a minimum level rather than through comparison with pre-defined scales. The assessment criteria comprised three aspects, namely; (a) criterion, (b) evidence and (c) judgment. The assessment criteria enabled an assessor to judge the degree of learning performance, starting with “not yet competent”, “barely competent”, “competent” and worked up to “very competent”. Mindful of the growing number of articles exploring the perspectives of various students on assessment criteria within the academy, it is generally notable that the perspectives of assessment criteria by participants on management development programmes have not yet been explored. The aim of this paper is to explore these perspectives held by participants on a JMDP in South Africa. In this regard, the point of departure is the exploration of the contested concept of assessment criteria. Subsequently, the paper discusses the research method, before progressing to focus on the presentation and discussion of the results of the study. Lastly, implications of these results on assessment in management development are highlighted to conclude the paper. Assessment Criteria As a robust way of unpacking the elusive concept of assessment criteria, it is logical to firstly tease out what is “assessment” and to describe its roots. It would also be enlightening to review the meaning of “criteria” in order to add value to our understanding of assessment criteria. In a nutshell, the term assessment originates from the Latin verb “assidere” which means “to sit beside” (Maree and Fraser, 2004:32). In educational discourse, there are many definitions of assessment. For example, assessment is: the process of gathering and discussing information from multiple and diverse sources in order to develop a deep understanding of what students know, understand, and can do with their knowledge as a result of their educational experiences; the process culminates

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when assessment results are used to improve subsequent learning (University of Delaware website). Drawing from the South African Qualifications Authority also known as SAQA (2001:16), assessment in education and training institution refers to “a structured process of collecting evidence and making judgments about an individual`s performance in relation to registered national standards and qualification”. Four common threads of assessment inherent in these two definitions can be delineated as (a) the notion of measurement or making judgment; (b) the use of a range of methods to measure, and also use of multiple sources of evidence of learning; (c) gauging a student`s ability (how well an individual can perform an activity or demonstrate knowledge); and (d) the use of pre-set criteria. It can be discerned that assessment links learning with two aspects, namely outcomes of learning on one hand, and evidence on learning on the other. The definition of assessment proposed by the University of Delaware embraces the notion of outcomes of learning and evidence of learning. Furthermore, it is more comprehensive and also embraces a developmental aspect which culminates in the effect of formative assessment feedback. It is for these reasons that this definition on assessment is adopted in this study. While assessment is traceable from Latin, the Greek word “kriterion" refers to “a means for judging” (Sadler, 2005:178). Simply put, criterion is defined as a “distinguishing property or characteristic of anything, by which its quality can be judged or estimated, or by which a decision or classification may be made” (Sadler, 2005:178). In arguing that student`s understanding of standards or holistic grading rather than criteria or analytic grading is critical in the learning process, Sadler (2009:177) asserts that (a) selecting a particular criteria suggests exclusion of others; and (b) decomposing holistic judgment into manageable parts fails to represent the full complexity of multi-criteria. Additionally, Sadler (2009:177) contend that a “holistic perspective of each work as a whole take into account both identifiable properties that rarely feature on criterion lists and properties that are difficult or impossible to encapasulate in words”. Within emphasis on outcomes-based assessment, an assessment criterion is a statement that (1) shows that the student has reached a particular standard; (2) reflects the quality of performance, representation of learning and basis of judgment on which the adequacy of the learner`s work is made; (3) prescribes with greater precision about the evidence of learning that is being assessed. In other words, assessment criteria have two aspects, namely (a) describing the different items or elements that will be assessed and (b) characteristics to be demonstrated within the assessment task. As such, it is arguable that “assessment criteria define, for each assessment instrument, the knowledge, skills and other qualities being assessed and the standard of achievement which must

be met to receive a particular grade or mark” (University of Ulster, 2012:7). Theoretically, assessment criteria should provide an explicit and transparent basis for informing the learner about the specific evidence of learning that is required at the end of the learning experience to demonstrate learning achievement. In this way, assessment criteria are at “the heart of student learning experience” and the level of achievement, thereby linking to learning outcomes on one side, and assessment tasks on the other (Brown and Knight, 1994:1). It is informative to note that assessment criteria sometimes grow out of the intended learning outcomes or from an assessment task. Assessment criteria which are based on the intended learning outcomes identify the knowledge, understanding and skills the assessor expects a student to display in the assessment task. On the other hand, assessment criteria may also be derived from the item of work that learners are asked to undertake, which is also termed the assessment task. In outcomes based learning, assessment criteria helps to ensure that the learner is assessed as competent or not competent on the basis of his own performance against specific, transparent and pre-set assessment criteria. This resonates with what is termed “criteria referenced assessment”, characterized by (a) assessment of the individual, (b) making judgments about the learners by measuring their work against a pre-determined criteria, (c) criteria being objective and as clear as possible, and (d) in cases where grading is used, this is done against a set criteria of assessment (SAQA, 2001:24-26). Ultimately, assessment criteria need to be designed in ways that integrate “assessment of learning” which focuses on evidence of achievement, and “assessment for learning” which involves and helps students (Dreyer, 2002). Concisely, assessment procedures and practices that are detailed, clear, and transparent are at the heart of assessment for learning, in order to buttress and underpin learning, instead of eroding student confidence to learn (Dreyer, 2002:12; Torrance, 2007:281). Torrance (2007:282) explains that assessment as learning occurs when: “….The clearer the task of how to achieve a grade or award becomes, and the more detailed the assistance given by tutors, supervisors and assessors, the more likely the learners are to succeed. (Own emphasis)”. Types of Assessment Criteria There are three different types of assessment criteria that can be identified from literature. These are the (1) threshold assessment criteria (University of Ulster, 2012:6-8); (2) grading assessment criteria (Sadler, 2005); and (3) generic assessment criteria (Canterbury Christ

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Church University, 2012). Firstly, a threshold assessment criterion reflects a standard of performance that a learner must reach in order to reflect minimum achievement or barely pass in a specified element of learning (University of Ulster, 2012:8). Secondly, a grade assessment criterion provides a scaling of how well learners achieve above the threshold such that it provides an incentive for learners to achieve at a higher standard than the minimum. The threshold and grade assessment criteria indicate what is to be learned, influences the approaches to learning that students take, and also indicate the levels of achievement that are required for any given unit of study. Thirdly, generic assessment criteria are not directly linked to learning outcomes as they are more generalised in terms of what they cover so that they can be adapted to specific disciplinary needs or used as they are (Canterbury Christ Church University, 2012). Assessors on this JMDP used the assessment criteria to respond to two fundamental questions. These are firstly: do participants know what they need to do to achieve the learning outcomes? Secondly, how will participants (and others) know what needs to be demonstrated to achieve a particular grade, mark or competence? If these are the views of the assessor, then what are the views of participants concerning how they used or did not use the assessment criteria?

RESEARCH METHOD This is a phenomenological study to explore and privilege the subjective meanings of the lived experience of using or not using assessment criteria by prospective Junior Managers on a JMDP.

Sampling The total number of JMDP participants was 19, comprising 12 female and 7 male, all full time employees, working at the administrative level. Each had a minimum qualification of matric and a first degree was the highest qualification. While three years of work experience in the organization was the minimum, the longest serving employee had 15 years with the organisation. The participants were between the ages of 25 to 36 years. These employees were identified through the organization’s talent management process. Purposively, the study involved only 14 of the 19 participants because they were competent in each of the modules in the JMDP. Every successful participant was involved as the number was relatively small in order to exclude others and still get rich and multiple perspectives of the phenomenon under study. All the employees interviewed in this study attended all the eight modules and therefore had the opportunity to experience the use of the assessment criteria. The assessment criteria were explained to participants during the programme launch and were also discussed by each lecturer with participants in each module. This study focuses on two modules only, namely Introduction to marketing management, and Business operations and information management. These two modules were chosen because participants considered them as the easiest and most difficult respectively.

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Data collection As participants were from three geographically spread offices within South Africa, telephone interviews were considered as being most cost-effective. The researcher conducted in-depth interviews with each of the 14 successful participants on the JMDP to (a) explore their understanding of the assessment criteria given to them in each of the two modules, (b) determine whether or not they used the assessment criteria; (c) how they used or did not use the assessment criteria; and (d) upon reflecting on their experience or opportunity to use an assessment criteria, what the participants as learners thought the reasons were for the assignments to have the allocated assessment criteria. It took one week to interview all the 14 participants. Semi structured interviews allowed for flexibility in the participants’ responses. These interviews captured accounts of participants in their own words as they reflected on the opportunity to use, or on the actual use of the assessment criteria. On average, each interview took between fifteen and twenty minutes. The interviews were conducted a month after the end of teaching and learning on the last module. Limitations of telephone interviews included the researcher (a) not being able to observe and interpret respondents’ non-verbal cues and (b) difficulty in completely ascertaining that respondents were not saying what they thought the researcher wanted to hear. However, the findings were subjected to member checks to mitigate this.

Data analysis The collected qualitative data was transcribed before analysis. The open coding and constant comparison technique was adopted to induce key emerging categories, which were then developed into themes.

RESULTS Overarching themes show that prospective Junior Managers understood and used the assessment criteria in diverse ways, in different circumstances and also for varied purposes, all of which can be broadly grouped into five, namely: (1) learning enabler, (2) external assessment, (3) cues and clues, (4) standard, and (5) hope and help. Table 1 reflects the various perspectives of JMDP regarding assessment criteria. Learning enabler Three of the fourteen Junior Managers concurred that assessment criteria enabled them to learn more on their own. One participant, recognizing the enabling capacity of assessment criteria, described how he felt empowered to independently and proactively explore more literature, an exercise which was perceived as fruitful: “We were asked to interview three managers…. The managers were not available….remember the submission date for marketing assignment was extended because managers in the marketing department were attending an annual event with customers…Time was running out. I first read the assignment...and then the

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Table 1. JMDP Learners’ Perspectives of Assessment criteria

Perspectives on Assessment criteria Learning enabler External Assessment Standard Cues and clues Hope and help

assessment criteria. I realized I had to read on my own…read books…company literature and brochures to familiarize myself with the topic. When the managers became available …it was easy and quick for me to get a lot of focused information which I needed from these managers. (JMDP 10)”. As notable exceptions, two of these three participants revealed how assessment criteria induced them to step up efforts to provide comprehensive and balanced coverage of various aspects of assessment criteria during preparations for assignments when aiming for higher achievement. This was what one of them had to say: “I did not focus just on few aspects, but covered all the aspects in a comprehensive way. It helped to be comprehensive…..above what was expected. To me the assessment criteria were a starting point …a systematic way of going forward…so I had to do more. For example, if I had to interview managers, I made sure I did that…interviewed more and chose which managers gave me relevant and great answers. (JMDP 7)”. There was unique evidence that assessment criteria influenced the orientation of participants towards more constant reflection on the assessment criteria throughout the preparation of the assignment. Uniquely, these three participants invested extra effort and personal resources, as one of them recollected this educational and assessment episode: “After the first rough draft, I thought I had enough….had done a lot of work and was comfortable. I did not go back to the copy of the assessment criteria. Yaa …..I put the questions and the relevant criteria in sections of my work… The first draft was just to meet the criteria. Subsequent rough drafts were to simply improve the quality...the criteria was now part of my work .I looked at it time and again. I read more to provide as much as I could. (JMDP14)”. Conspicuously, there were three participants who did not use the assessment criteria. One of these participants confessed that “I was under work and time pressure, and also had a toothache…..many things were happening at the same time… I did not use it [assessment criteria]” (JMDP 5). Time taken up by family commitments,

No. of Learners out of 14 3 8 6 8 2

company social events, and an urge to avoid details were characteristic reasons by participants who did not use the assessment criteria. In retrospect, one participant lamented about the adverse consequences arising from failure to appropriately use detailed evidence in an assignment. The result of downplaying the formative priority of assessment criteria subsequently altered not only the way some participants were dealing with the assignment but also cleared some misconceptions of the processes leading to learning achievement. From the point of view of development and change in practices, this is how one of the participants realized the importance of doing more detailed work and working differently to avoid failure: “I did not verify or compare any aspect of my work with the assessment criteria. I was avoiding the details. I simply wanted to submit and hoped to just make it…sneak in. If I had used it, I was going to do well. The criteria were clear…Frankly, my assignment was disorderly …not exhaustive…Yet I had collected lots of information. I should not have failed….. I learnt my lesson and vowed never ever to do this. I just did not have time because I had gone home for family meetings…home is far away from here. (JMDP 7)”. External assessment Eight of the fourteen JMDP participants did not use the assessment criteria themselves to understand and evaluate their own learning. Instead, these participants described how they used the assessment criteria to get external and formative feedback, sometimes from more than one person, and also from different hierarchical levels. This type of dependence on others such as authoritative peers was illustrated as follows: “After writing my marketing assignment, I gave it to two of my colleagues on this programme [names of people withheld] to look at it .They gave me feedback on what I was lacking…gaps…differences in my understanding. After their comments, then I made corrections before submitting it with some confidence. (JMDP 2)”. The external evaluations or support which participants sought, served different purposes with varied usefulness

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at different times. Instrumentally, two of the eight participants used the assessment criteria to get opinions. Other participants used the assessment criteria to engage in critical and structured discussions on the assignment with peers. The external support also served an educational purpose through feedback on the progress of participants, which resulted in valuable perspectives on how to address the assessment task. However, three of the eight participants were developing into capable learners, ultimately able to decipher and make final decisions from external input on key aspects regarding the quality of their own work, as concisely illustrated below: “A friend who is more experienced than me gave me her opinion on my assignment based on the criteria. I emailed her both my assignment and the assessment criteria. In the marketing assignment, we had a discussion over lunch about the progress on interviews I had with managers. She suggested to me the key points from the interview for me to consider but always insisted that the final decision was mine. (JMDP 8)”. Focusing on structuring of feedback to reveal the existence or non-existence of gaps in knowledge, one participant described how she thought assessment criteria was a framework for peers, colleagues, managers and lecturers to use in order to give formative and also retrospective feedback to participants. The dominance of the lecturer-led model of assessment and the usefulness of assessment criteria in framing the lecturer`s feedback to participants was conceived as useful for examination preparation: “I think the assessment criteria were given to us as a framework of what feedback we will get. Feedback from the lecturer after the assignment boosted my self-belief that I had understood the course. This was good and useful for me as I prepared for exam. However, I was worried when I did not get feedback in time for Business operations exam. (JMDP 3)”. A range of negative self-beliefs entrenched low selfefficacy of participants in terms of how they used the assessment criteria. It was common that all these eight participants expressed (a) a lack of self confidence in their own ability to criticize their own work; (b) a belief that others were better placed to assess their work and (c) the belief that one can competently assess one`s work was incongruent with their common belief that an assessor is external, more experienced and knowledgeable than oneself. One of these participants described tersely how she perceived her own lack of abilities to apply the criteria to her own work, and thereby depended on external evaluators. “I gave the assessment criteria to other people to check if

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what I was doing was right or wrong. I am not good at finding my own mistakes really. If I try to do it….it just makes me feel hopeless…sometime I under or over criticize myself. I just do not want to deceive myself so, I let others do it. (JMDP 11)”. Standards Six of the fourteen participants described how they used the assessment criteria as standards or formulae. There were perceptions of assessment criteria as depictions of “defined level” or “a bar” of what to do, a style of how to do, and the amount of what to do to attain a certain level of achievement. Assessment criteria as a formula to pass influenced how participants perceived success or attainable goals. As such, it was rife among six participants who expressed faith in assessment criteria as a very valuable filter or yardstick in terms of highlighting right or wrong or any deviations from expectations or formulae. One participant had this to say: “….without the assessment criteria I could have difficulties to be within the parameters of what I was expected to write. The criteria gave me...… necessary limits to observe to be ok….to adhere and not be off limits. (JMDP 1)”. In corroboration with this enduring perspective, the other participants pronounced non-adherence to criteria and an absence or inadequate characteristics to meet minimum requirements as central in the negative outcome of their performance, as succinctly revealed in this interview text: “…..I have used the marking criteria before…..but not in the business operations assignment. I had gone for company sports games in [name of town withheld]. I travelled the day before the deadline. I was tired and did not have time. I just wrote the assignment and submitted it. I did not even check or stick to the marking guide. I had pressure to submit….last minute work. There was no spare time to check what I had written against the criteria. It was disaster, really. (JMDP 4)”. Cues and Clues It was prevalent that eight of fourteen participants perceived assessment criteria as signals or clues by the lecturers to them during the assessment experience. In particular, the following quotation illustrates how assessment criteria were perceived by four participants as instrumental in giving clear or transparent hints of what to focus on when doing the assignment: “….I realized that the assessment criteria came from the assignment. Is it not the case …? The hints were in the

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assessment criteria…There was nothing that was hidden really. I just looked at the criteria as what I should do. That’s how I used it; it actually reduced my effort by helping me not to beat about the bush. (JMDP 6)”. Spotting clues about setting-up, structuring or outlining the assignment, clues about expected depth and quality of content, and also cues about changes in the line of argument also reflects how two of these participants used the assessment criteria: “The criteria gave me an idea of how to set-up my assignment. What must be in it….put it in order…Change the argument and ensure that I got everything….and that I was on track. Once I spotted this…this helped me with the first rough draft. In the business operations assignment I had five rough drafts….. I had to polish up my work. (JMDP 12)”. In some instances, two participants were persistent in underscoring that clues in the assessment criteria were complemented by what lecturers in classroom had said was important. “It…indirectly informed me on how to plan my assignment…get an outline….and deliver on expectations. I knew that the lecturer expected something to come from me from the lecture. The criteria showed me this something. I also checked my notes of what the lectures said was important on the topic. (JMDP 6)”. Additionally, all eight participants also worked out some clues and cues from details in criteria-driven feedback by lecturers regarding assignment. These types of evaluative clues were useful for examination as they reflected participants’ strengths and weakness, thereby signalling them on what to study, and where mitigation strategies could be adopted in order to succeed. “….feedback from the lecturer on the assignment was important. It gave me assurance. …confirmation of what I understood or not ...and what I did not know. It was motivating when feedback showed I knew something. When preparing for examination, I knew where to focus much when studying…with time pressure…. the focus was on what I did not understand. (JMDP 11)”. Hope and help Only two of fourteen participants expressed how lack of support from anyone within the organization was helpful to renew their efforts when doing their assignment, instead of debilitating them. In these instances, the assessment criteria served to give participants optimism or a stimulus to set realistic goals, feel in charge of how well they were doing on the programme, and adopt effective learning strategies: “Well…I remember the assessment criteria which I used

to help me to know what I needed to do. Detailed assessment criteria really gave me hope that I would do it. Without support from the manager…or anyone at work, it’s like one is hanging in the air. I spent time...Immersed myself in the details…. of the assessment criteria to bail myself out. (JMDP 13)”. In these circumstances, participants concurred that assessment criteria were psychologically valuable as an alternative and a great window into the mind of the lecturer. In underpinning how the assessment criteria were perceived as indispensable support, another participant passionately said this: “…Our Manager was busy trying to get customers. He said he had no time to support us. We literary had no support from anyone in the company. The criteria were the only help…window into the lecturer`s mind on what I must do…. It clearly opened and pointed the key points. If there is one thing that should not be changed, it`s this one. (JMDP 9)”. DISCUSSION It is a well-rehearsed assertion that lecturers or trainers invest a great deal of time in designing assessment criteria to support learning and also as learning for students. Norton (2004:690) argues that while assessment task may be construed as performance of students` learning, assessment criteria which support actual learning become the learning criteria. However, the potential of assessment criteria to enable learning was not fully exploited by most of the participants themselves in this management development programme. Few participants used the assessment criteria as a learning enabler. In this respect, assessment criteria stimulated a few participants to step up their efforts or use more resources (in-put) to produce a comprehensive and balanced response to the assessment task (output). They generated a sense of empowerment that made participants learn more independently, and also constantly reflected on their assessment tasks during the preparatory period. It has been argued that assessors also learn through their exposure to new material from peers or students (Ross, 2006; Spiller, 2012). In this collaborative way, it is possible that those participants who were consulted to give feedback on the work of their peers based on the assessment criteria also not only learnt and became more critically aware of what to look for in their colleagues` work, but also how to develop and present their own work. In other words, it is possible that the act of judging the quality of the work of a peer based on evidence and explicit assessment criteria caused the students to consider exactly what is it that would make a competent response to the assessment task. The use of peers in various ways (e.g. making

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judgment, giving qualitative feedback on gaps, getting a more accurate and fair view of progress or self) demonstrates the potential for a more collaborative and participatory learning and assessment environment which may suit the communal or ubunthu values in Africa. Focusing on self-assessment, Rolheiser and Ross (1996:1) assert that “when we teach students how to assess their own progress, and when they do so against known and challenging quality standards, we find that there is a lot to gain”. While Boud and Falchikov (1989) analyses of studies from 1932-1988 cautions that “good students tended to underrate themselves and that weaker students overrated themselves”, they also agree that selfassessment increases the role of students as active participants reflecting on their own learning processes and results. Another aspect of assessment criteria as an enabler of learning was evident through the facilitation of change in the ways in which some participants on this JMDP understood, experienced and conceptualized assessment criteria. Negative consequences of not using the assessment criteria had the educational effect of making participants re-define their prior conceptions of what is required to pass, and also reactively changed the ways in which they understood and conceptualized the use of assessment criteria in order to do better work in future. Conversely, a large number of the participants on this JMDP perceived assessment criteria as cues and clues by the lecturers to participants during the assessment experience. Assessment criteria was used to spot different clues which guided the participant`s approach regarding content and quality, argumentation, and also informed them of strengths and weaknesses as reflected in criteria-driven feedback. Ramsden (1974) labeled this approach “strategic” as students may actually achieve good grades without a personal commitment to learning. In a similar vein, Biggs (1987) elaborated that a strategic approach is motivated by an “achievement orientation” and not a learning orientation. In some cases, participants on this JMDP asserted that clues and cues in assessment criteria were not always adequate, because they were complemented by clues based on what lecturers uttered in class. This finding resonates with the old study by Miller and Parllet (1974:60) which investigated the extent to which students were conscious of cues about what was rewarded in the assessment system. This study categorized and characterized students into three, namely, (1) cue seekers - “those who went out of their way to get out of the lecturer what was going to come up in an exam and what their personal preferences were”; (2) cue conscious - “those students who heard and paid attention to tips given out by their lecturers about what was important”; and lastly (3) cue deaf - “for whom any such guidance passed straight over their heads”. The current study goes beyond mere categorization and characterization of students by

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highlighting the link between “assessment criteria” and “clues and cues”, and also focusing on the nature and purposes of the cues and clues. A different view of clues and cues emerges when one focuses on assessment as learning. Torrance (2007:282) posits that (a) explicit task assessment and (b) detailed assistance to learners increases the chances of learner success. This way of transferring skills and knowledge may be appealing particularly if participants need functional knowledge. However, there is a need to guard against instrumentalism and surface learning, the promotion of an over-dependence of participants on cues and clues from the lecturer and enhancement of the mechanics of assessment task, rather than meaningful engagement with the learning process (Norton, 2004). Assessment criteria are not available for passive participants to use. The participant is expected to be active and work towards achieving or exceeding the assessment criteria perceived as a definition of a “level” (Bloxham, 2012). Nonetheless, assessment criteria predominantly promoted threshold rather than excellent performance among the JMDP participants. In this way, assessment criteria inadvertently reinforced “criteria compliance” rather than “active learning” (Torrance, 2007:282). Most of the participants also described how they used the assessment criteria to get external and formative feedback from external evaluators or verifiers (e.g. peers, a manager prior to submission, and lecturer after submission of the assignment). As such, assessment criteria were largely used for external assessment which is both peer and tutor assessment. Feedback and assessment are construed as central to the tutor identity and power. This is opposite to an internal perspective on personal learning and performance which requires a student to take an honest and self-critical reflection on his/her own work (e.g. how well did I apply myself to the task, what do I need to improve my performance). In this regard, students look at their work and judge the degree to which it reflects the goals of the assignment and the assessment criteria the teacher will be using to evaluate the work. It is different from grading their own work as the focus is on improving their work. In a nutshell, “selfassessment is feedback for oneself from oneself” (Andrade and Du, 2007:160). As such, self-assessment may be defined as “a process of formative assessment during which students reflect on and evaluate the quality of their work and their learning, judge the degree to which they reflect explicitly stated goals or criteria; identify own strength and weaknesses in their own work, and revise accordingly” (Andrade and Du, 2007:160). The theoretical model of self-evaluation by Rolheiser and Ross (2003:2) suggests that “when students evaluate their performance positively, self-evaluations encourage students to (1) set higher goals and (2) commit more personal resources or effort to them. The combination of goals (1) and effort (2)

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equals achievement”. In doing self-evaluation, learners deliberately (a) “focus on specific aspects of their performance related to subjective standards of success”; (b) while self-judgment is about determining how well their general and specific goals were met; and (c) selfreactions refers to “interpretations of the degree of goal achievement that expresses how satisfied students are with results of their actions and processes that students use to observe and interpret their behavior” (Rolhesier and Ross, 2003). Thus, a combination of goals, effort, self-judgment and self-reaction brings a positive impact on the self-confidence of learners and on what is termed an “upward cycle of learning”. Conversely, “a downward cycle” may arise from self-evaluation which makes learners perceive themselves as unsuccessful. This is characterized by negative orientations of learners towards learning such as unrealistic goals, low effort, ineffective learning styles or even giving up in hopelessness (Rolhesier & Ross, 2003). In this study, some learners upheld negative self-beliefs which perpetuated low self-efficacy and discouraged them from using assessment criteria for discovering gaps in their own analysis, thereby highlighting points that were missed and their failure to plan for improvement prior to submission of their assignments. The successful adoption of assessment criteria by participants will have to overcome their basic assumptions of tutor-led assessments, characterized as (a) hierarchical approach in which the expert considers the work of a novice; and (b)the predominant assessment model in which the lecturer holds all the power. This view is reinforced by the participants’ negative beliefs about their own ability in the light of self-assessment and therefore affirms the external perspective of assessment. While teacher and participant dialogue (criteria applications) focusing on evidence for judgment is critical, it is not sufficient without engaging participants in the making of decisions about standards of performance expected (criteria development). In other words, learners need to be engaged in the development and also trained in the application of assessment criteria if they are to be persuaded of its developmental value to them. Furthermore, a study of self-assessment at a new UK University by Fallows and Chandramohan (2001:236) focused on the positive effects of four stages of training learners how to assess their work which embraced (1) learners’ involvement in defining assessment criteria; (2) teaching students how to apply the criteria; (3) giving students feedback on their self-assessment; and (4) helping students to use assessment data to develop action plans. This study concluded that students trained in these processes outperformed control samples. Woolf (2004: 488) surmises that “it is the active engagement in the discussions and the application of criteria that can help students acquire a (deep) insight into the meaning of criteria in particular and more generally”. One form of

such active engagement is self-assessment - which contributes to higher student achievement. Learners’ failure to internalize self-assessment reduces their own opportunities for genuine developmental feedback and “development of transferable skills deemed to be a positive foundation for lifelong learning and employment” (Fallows and Chandramohan, 2001:230). Andrade and Du (2007:162) echoes the view that more investigation into “issues related to student`s responses to selfassessment” is needed as one form of active engagement of learners in assessment. Implications Three key implications are highlighted. Firstly, although this study supports the notion that assessment procedures, practices and criteria that are articulated too precisely lead to learner compliance with criteria, the practical difficulty is to determine clearly the point “where assessment procedures and practices come completely to dominate the learning experience” (Torrance, 2007:282). As long as this remains fuzzy, clear and wellarticulated assessment criteria which promote active engagement will be useful to build the functional knowledge of participants. Secondly, there is evidence that while some participants benefited from the opportunity to use assessment criteria (such as a better understanding of expectations, the development of evaluative skills, motivation to do better work), there were others who experienced difficulties (not able to self-assess, self-defeating beliefs creating low self-efficacy, time constraints, grappling with beliefs such as the tutor is the assessor and not self or peer). Such difficulties were further compounded by the assessment innovation which reflects the changing role of assessor as self, peer, tutor, or co-assessor. Inevitably, this is shaking the traditionally dominant philosophy of lecturer-led or lecturer-controlled assessment upheld by both the assessor and the learner, not just in management development programmes but also the academy. Subsequently, the different ways in which participants used the assessment criteria calls for lecturers to give up some “teacher control”, and use multiple approaches to assessment of participants on JMDP. This implies the lecturers` need for more tools in the assessment tool box as part of their repertoire of skills. The active participation of learners at every stage of assessment process (e.g. pre-assessment practice of marking and discussions) may help them to make judgments about the quality of their own work and also that of others in relation to the criteria. Thus, learners become partners rather than passive recipients of judgment in the assessment. Furthermore, the learners’ use of criteria may be improved by paying attention to their response to criteria or their history of

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working with criteria. In this pursuit, assessment literacy of the trainer or educator needs to recognize and also address the possibility of damage to the learner`s selfefficacy, self-worth or self-esteem arising from ill-use of assessment criteria for self-evaluation. Therefore, to develop the skills and competencies demanded in professional organizations, future management talent development programmes need to actively promote assessment criteria as a valuable tool for use not just by lecturers or others such as peers or experienced others, as propagated by the notion of external view of assessment. This implies that participants as learners should internalize and use assessment criteria more fruitfully to evaluate, revise and accordingly improve their own work before submitting it. Lastly, future studies need to delve into the participants` interpretation of each criterion and its articulation in the set of assessment criteria to balance “instrumenttalism” and “learning”. Such research would have clear practical value to both the university and organizations pursuing management development programmes that seek to develop managers who are lifelong learners as well as independent reflective practitioners. REFERENCES Andrade H, Du Y (2007). Student responses to criteria-referenced selfassessment. Assessment Evaluat. High. Educ. 32 (2):159-181. Biggs JB (1987). Student approaches to learning and studying. Melbourne: Australian Council for Educational Research. Bloxham S (2012). You can see the quality in front of your eyes: grounding academic standards between rationality and interpretation. Qual. High. Educ. 18 (2):185-204. Boud D, Falchikov N (2006). Aligning assessment with long-term learning. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 31(4):399-413. Brown S, Knight P (1994). Assessing Learners in Higher Education. London: Kogan Page. Canterbury Christ Church University (2012). Assessment Criteria. Quality and Standards Office. www.canterbury ac.uk/support/qualityand standards-office/validation/assessment.asp. Accessed on 12 August, 2012. Dreyer JM (2002). Onderwysersopleiding vir uitkomste-gebaseerde onderwys in Suid Afrika. Unpublished thesis. Pretoria, Unisa. Erasmus BJ, Leodoff PZ, Mda TV, Nel PS (2011). Managing Training th Development in South Africa (6 ed). Oxford University Press Southern Africa, Cape Town, South Africa. Fallows S, Chandramohan B (2001). Multiple Approaches to Assessment: Reflections on use of tutor, peer and self-assessment. Teaching High. Educ. 6(2):229-246. Luckett K, Sutherland L (2000). Assessment Practices that improve Teaching and Learning. In: Makoni S (ed.). Teaching and Learning in Higher Education: A Handbook for Southern Africa. Witwatersrand University Press and The Higher Education Research and Development of Australian Society. Johannesburg, South Africa.

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Maree JG, Fraser WJ (2004).Outcomes-Based Assessment. Heinemann, Johannesburg, South Africa. Miller CMI, Parlett M (1974). Up to the Mark: a study of the examination game. Guildford: Society for Research into Higher Education. Norton L (2004).Using assessment criteria as learning criteria: case study in psychology. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 29(6):687-702. O`Donovan B, Price M, Rust C (2001). The student experience of criterion-referenced assessment through the use of common criteria assessment grid. Innovat. Learn. Teaching Int. 38 (1):74-85. Ramsden P (1979). Student learning and perceptions of the academic environment. Higher Educ. 8(4):411-427. Rolheiser C, Ross JA (2003). Student self-evaluation: What research says and what practice shows. Centre for Development Learning Metairie, LA. Ross JA (2006). The reliability, Validity, and Utility of Self-Assessment. Practical Assessment, Research and Evaluation, 11, 10 available on line: http://pareonline.net/getvn.asp?y=11&n=10 Accessed on 23 August, 2012. Rust C (2002). The impact of assessment on student learning: How can the research literature practically help to inform the development of departmental assessment strategies and learner-centred assessment practices. Active Learn. High. Educ. 3(2):145-158. Rust C, Price M, O`Donovan B (2003). Improving student`s learning by developing their understanding of assessment criteria and processes. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 28(2):145-164. Sadler R (2005). Interpretation of criteria based assessment and grading in higher education. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 30(2):175-194. Sadler DR (2007). Perils in the meticulous specification of goals and assessment criteria. Assess. Educ. Principles Policy Pract. 14(3):387-392. Sadler DR (2009). Indeterminacy in the use of preset criteria for assessment and grading. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 34(2):159179. South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) Policy Document. (2001). Criteria and Guidelines for Assessment of NQF Registered Unit Standards and Qualifications. Pretoria, South Africa. Spiller D (2012). Assessment matters: Self-assessment and peer assessment. Teaching and Development Unit, University of Waikato, New Zealand. Torrance H (2007). Assessment as learning? How the use of explicit learning objectives, assessment criteria and feedback in postsecondary education and training can come to dominate learning. Assess Educ. 14(3):281-294. University of Delaware, Office of Education Assessment. Frequently asked questions. Available online from: http://assessment.udel.edu. Accessed on 23 July, 2012. University of Ulster (2012). Assessment handbook. Centre for Higher Education, available on: www.ulster.ac.uk/academic office/download Accessed on 12 August, 2012. Woolf H (2004). Assessment criteria: reflections on current practices. Assess. Evaluation High. Educ. 29(4):479-493. Xavier R, Mehta A (2004). Understanding Assessment: The student Experiences of Criterion-Referenced Assessment in a Public Relations Course. Queensland University of Technology, Australia.

African Journal of Business Management Vol. 7(2), pp. 154-163, 14 January, 2013 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM DOI: 10.5897/AJBM-12-1442 ISSN 1993-8233 ©2013 Academic Journals

Full Length Research Paper

Development adventure of Turkey and its potential rivals in the period of 2001-2010: A comparative multivariate analysis Neslihan Arslan1* and Hüseyin Tatlidil2 1

Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Department of Economics- Ankara, Turkey. Hacettepe University, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics, 06800 Beytepe - Ankara, Turkey.

Accepted 11 December, 2012

In this paper, the concept of economic development is tried to be disclosed by proposing measures of economic development or growth. Although traditional measures of economic development such as GDP or GNP are the most prevalent ones in the last decade, new measures are being tried to be found out to well fit the real meaning of economic development; in this respect, Human Development Index is the most leading one. Main purpose of this paper is to see the position of Turkey and to examine the development adventure of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) and KM (South Korea, Malaysia) countries and then to compare Turkey with these countries regarded as the potential development leaders by performing non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) technique. Moreover, a general evaluation and discussion will be made with respect to the estimation (extrapolation) for the period of 2011 to 2023. According to this, whereas South Korea and Russia are expected to reach higher development levels, Vietnam, Indonesia and Egypt are expected to remain the current levels, not to reach higher development levels. Key words: Economic development, measuring economic progress, multi-dimensional scaling, trend model, principle component analysis. INTRODUCTION The concept of “economic development” has been given notable attention throughout the world for many years. Although some changes occurred in the definition of “economic development”, the most comprehensive ones are presented in the recent studies. In a widespread manner, the term of “economic development” is regarded as the key objective for the growth of national income. Nevertheless, previous definitions of this concept do not fit well the real meaning of economic development. Therefore, to explain the term of “economic development” in a broad sense, new approaches were developed to reflect the real needs of the population and better measures were claimed to explain the progress in the

*Corresponding author. E-mail: narslan@ybu.edu.tr. JEL classification: O47

economic growth. In the book called as “Economic Development”, “development must be conceived of as a multidimensional process involving major changes in social structures, popular attitudes, and national institutions, as well as the acceleration of economic growth, the reduction of inequality and the eradication of poverty". So, from this definition, it is clearly understood that for development in all societies, “increasing the availability of basic life sustaining products”, “increasing standards of living” and “expanding the range of economic and social choices” come to the light as important factors in this regard (Todaro and Smith, 2009). After the collapse of Ottoman Empire and the birth of the Republic (1923), Turkish economy was highly bruised due to the hostilities and the wars in the world. During the World War I, agricultural output sharply decreased since most of the peasants were sent to the war which affected Turkish economy destructively. In this period, Turkish economy was highly depended on agriculture and poor-

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quality livestock. In the view of Turkish industrial base, there were few factories producing essential nutrients such as flour and sugar. As a result of the capitulations inherited from the Ottoman Empire, these main nutrients were under foreign control. After the end of World War I, Turkish economy started to recover substantially and the agricultural product rose to the pre-war levels. In addition to the agricultural boom, there was an expansion in industry and services; however, this growth remained at low levels when compared with the agricultural growth. By 1930, owing to the great depression in the world, external markets for Turkish agriculture had collapsed and caused a sharp decline in national income of Turkey. Consequently, Turkish government intervened to the economy to promote expansion under the doctrine of etatism. This doctrine, which supports the idea of government intervention in all economic decisions such as production of goods and services, labor division and income distribution, had been prevailed until 1950s. After 1950, Turkish economy had suffered economic disruptions from time to time. 1960 military coup and 1970 economic crisis were some of these disruptions. In the wake of 1960 military coup, government spending was boosted by Turkish politicians. Furthermore, due to the absence of structural reform in this period, Turkey ran current account deficits financed by external borrowing which in turn increased the burden of foreign debt. Following to the military boom, 1970 crisis aggravated the deterioration of Turkish economy. Rapid industrial expansion and sharp increase in imports worsened the balance of payments and moreover, devaluation of Turkish Lira dampened domestic demand for foreign goods. This downturn in Turkish economy has been tried to be eliminated by the guidelines and the implementtations of IMF. So, during this period, the policy of mixed economy was followed until 1980s. After 24th January 1980, in order to overcome the crises occurred in the last decade, liberalization program started to be implemented. Thanks to this program, Turkish economy reestablished the ability to borrow in the international capital markets and public expenditures and foreign debt were decreased. Foreign investment in Turkey started to grow because Turkey tried to keep pace of the world in the view of competitiveness. Although other problems such as inflation and unemployment occurred in Turkish economy, until 1994, performance in Turkish economy attracted a great deal of attention in the world. However, in 1994, Turkish economy was again plunged into a crisis. After 1994 crisis, 2001 financial crisis which was named as liquidity crisis occurred and these two crisis destroyed Turkish economy to a large extent. To take precautions immediately, the term of “Transition program to a strong economy” was introduced. Accordingly, fiscal and financial precautions were taken and new economic regulations were introduced to recover Turkish economy. The lessons learned from this crisis led to the amelioration of Turkish economy and thus Turkey made a

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remarkable progress in the last decade. In fact, this recovery was regarded as commendable by IMF, World Bank and OECD experts. In another perspective, for explaining economic development, it is noteworthy to mention that different countries have been development players in different periods depending on their performance in the economy. By 2000s, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are discussed broadly in the view of being development leaders according to the report published by PricewaterhouseCoopers (Hawksworth and Cookson, 2008). However, in the recent years, CIVETS countries (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) get on the stage after BRIC countries. CIVETS countries are seen as “the third wave of development players” and “the post-BRIC generation” in the fast growing economies (Schulz, 2010). The main reason why these countries are regarded as the post BRICgeneration is the fact that these countries have younger and fast-growing populations, diversified economies, attractive investment opportunities. BRIC countries have also some similarities: these countries are the largest countries by both demographically and economically and their GDP growth rates are much higher than those in developed markets. Although it is stated that BRIC countries will shape the world economy in the impending future, this view has changed and now CIVETS countries are expected to be seen as the growth leaders in the next decade (Cameron, 2011). Beyond CIVETS and BRIC countries, Malaysia and South Korea can also be seen as the potential leaders in the next decade, since the performance of the economies of these two countries is expected to be much higher. According to IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2012 estimates, GDP growth rate of South Korea is expected to increase by 49.68% from 2011 to 2017, whereas, GDP growth rate of Malaysia is expected to increase by 58.73% from 2011 to 2017 (IMF WEO Database, 2012). In this regard, since demographic and economic expansion of these countries followed a similar path in the last decade, these countries abbreviated as CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and KM (South Korea and Malaysia) countries will be taken as the potential rivals for each other and also for Turkey in the scope of this paper. During the period of 2001 to 2010, Turkey improved and accelerated its economic development substantially even in spite of 2001 crisis. Since this period is of vital importance for Turkey, these selected countries will be evaluated for the period of 2001 to 2010 and moreover since the year of 2023 is the 100th anniversary of Turkish Republic, GDP per capita estimation will be made for this year in order to see the position of Turkey with respect to the 11 rivals. Before explaining how the economies of these countries changed in the period of 2001 to 2010, it would be much better to focus on the measurement of economic development or growth. Although there are

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many indicators measuring economic development, the most broadly accepted indicators are GDP (Gross Domestic Product), GNP (Gross National Product), National Debt, Trade Balance, Credit Rating and Distribution of Wealth. GDP or GNP indicators are commonly used measures of economic growth and standard of living; however, these indicators are not sufficient enough to explain the whole performance of the economy and therefore, some problems exist associated with these indicators; because these traditional indicators do not indicate the distribution of income in the society. GDP and GNP measures do not give a better indication for the extent of poverty. As it is well known that since the heterogenic income distribution is not satisfied under only GDP and GNP measures, they are not better indicators of well-being of the society. Moreover, in some Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel1, an enormous proportion of expenditure is made on military hardware which has a driving force to increase GNP; however, this does not mean that these expenditures contribute to the well-being or the human development of the society. Similarly, OECD enounces that: “Survey-based data on happiness and life-satisfaction across OECD countries are only weakly related to levels of GDP per capita” (OECD, 2006). Therefore, other measures are tried to be developed to well fit the concept of development. One of them is Human Development Index, which was first introduced by UN in 1990. This index is the composite measure of development and HDI is comprised of life expectancy index, education index and gross national income index which indicate the social and economic growth of the society and also well-being of the society. Therefore, HDI is a relatively better measure of economic development. In addition to this index, there are some other measures of development; however, they will not be mentioned in the scope of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to see the position of Turkey with respect to the selected rivals and to examine how the economies of BRIC, CIVETS and KM countries changed in the last decade and how the expectations of economic growth will take place in the impending future. Furthermore, this paper aims at explaining the development of these potential leaders and comparing them with each other with respect to three categories namely; development indicators (DI) retrieved from IMF and World Bank Databases, human development index (HDI) and competitiveness ranking (CR). In this context, non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) will be performed to obtain the two-dimensional perceptual maps of these three categories for the years of 2001 and 2010. Then, depending on these two-dimensional perceptual

According to World Databank, in 2011, military expenditures as of GDP in Middle East and North Africa countries is at very high levels when compared with the countries in other regions; for example, in Saudi Arabia, this rate is at 8.41% which is the highest level and in Israel, this rate is 6.76% which is the second highest level and as the third highest rate, it is 5.97 % in Oman (World Databank, 2012).

maps, economic development of these 12 countries will be compared in line with this purpose. This paper consists of five sections; after the introduction section, literature review will be given in chronological order as the second section. In the third section, NMDS method will be introduced and the relationship between the economic growth and the explanatory variables used in the analysis will be explained. In the fourth section, these potential leaders of development wave will be compared with respect to three categories: DI, HDI and CR with NMDS method. In the fifth and the final section, a general evaluation will be made and the comparison of these countries will be interpreted depending on the two-dimensional perceptual maps obtained by using the categories mentioned earlier. Moreover, projection will be made in order to determine the development position of these countries for the period of 2011 to 2023 in the conclusion part. According to the article written by Mihai Macovei, Turkey’s economic performance during the crises is addressed broadly, and also the effects of these crises are assessed for Turkey and for other countries as well. Correspondingly, how Turkish economy behaved and how macroeconomic and structural measures are taken during the crises is discussed substantially. Turkey’s economic growth and performance for the period starting from the Second World War is explained. Main features and causes of the crises are identified, the lessons derived from the crises are discussed and also main contributors of the policies and programs specially implemented as a measure for the crises are analyzed. After the crises, economic recovery of Turkish economy and consolidation of fiscal and economic policies are also emphasized in this article (Macovei, 2009). Landefeld et al. (2010) focus on measurement methods for economic progress in their article. Expanded measures for the national accounts versus the measures presented by GDP are proposed. Moreover, this article provides new measures of the distribution of growth in income and the sustainability of trends in the important variables for economic progress. In this regard, this article concerns whether GDP provides a good measure for living standards or not. In the conclusion part of this article, the main implications of these measures are evaluated for future growth (Landefeld et al., 2010). Yalew (2011) sheds light on the concept of sustainable development in his thesis. According to this thesis, sustainable development is defined as “the development path that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. In this study, sustainability of economic growth of Brazil, China, India and South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2008 by taking natural resources and environmental capital depletion into account. Moreover, in this study, an analysis for assessing sustainability of economic growth based on two different scenarios is provided and real GDP growth rates and other findings of the study are compared for the mentioned countries

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(Yalew, 2011). The article written by Weisbrot and Ray makes a comparative analysis with the data on economic growth and various social indicators for 193 countries over the past 50 years. This fifty-year period is divided into three sub periods as 1960 to 1980; 1980 to 2000; and 2000 to 2010 in this study. In the view of economic growth, relationship between economic growth and social indicators including life expectancy, infant and child mortality, and education are examined. Furthermore, this paper looks at the economic performance of the last decade in addition to available social indicators and accordingly evaluates the economic progress by comparing the mentioned countries. In the conclusion part, the progress of economic growth is evaluated by comparing both the periods and countries depending on the results of econometric method performed in this paper (Weisbrot and Ray, 2011).

be descending or ascending (Fasham, 1977). In this study the data set used in the analysis is presented as follows:

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) is a multivariate technique describing the analysis of proximity in data set and the hidden structure underlying the data. In NMDS method, a small number of axes are chosen and accordingly the data are fitted to these dimensions. This technique iteratively seeks a solution and stops computation when an acceptable solution is found out. NMDS technique makes few assumptions compared to the other ordination techniques. So, it is appropriate for a wide variety of data set. Main purpose of this technique is to obtain a graphical representation with a small number of dimensions. As for the main advantages of NMDS, this technique avoids the assumption of linear relationships among variables. NMDS finds a non-parametric monotonic relationship between the dissimilarities and the Euclidean distances. Moreover, NMDS enables the use of distance measure (Holland, 2008). So, it can be clearly said that NMDS is the most effective ordination method for widely varied data set. NMDS is an iterative method minimizing the stress of the kdimensional configuration. The calculations are based on an nxn distance matrix calculated from the nxp-dimensional data matrix. In this calculation, n represents the number of rows or entities and p represents the number of columns or attributes in the data matrix. Since the aim is to find a configuration such that the distances from the points ( ) will be the same as the observed distances ( ),

In the view of economic development, these selected countries can be grouped and compared according to their development patterns. In this respect, twodimensional plot of these countries will be given by using non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) method. As for Turkey, according to the development indicators, competitiveness ranks and Human Development Index, Turkey can be evaluated as being at an advantageous position. Turkey improved and is still improving its economy, inflation rates were decreased to lower rates compared to the rates of crises years. GDP per capita rates are raised substantially when compared with the GDP per capita levels of crisis. Moreover, most of the macroeconomic indicators reveal that Turkey improved its position in the international area. Competitiveness ranking also indicates this expansion; according to WEF, IMD and IFC ranking list Turkey’s rank is at a satisfying level when compared with the other countries. In the view of HDI, Turkey improved its education structure during the period of 2001 to 2010, life expectancy and also GDP levels which imply the well-being of the society are also at an increasing rate. Details of these categories are presented with the comparison of selected 11 rivals. Here, these countries are taken as the rivals since they are competitors of Turkey. After applying NMDS technique and obtaining twodimensional plots of DI, CR and HDI for 12 countries, principle component analysis (PCA)3 is applied to the

fitted distances (

are constructed in such a way that the fitted

distances will be at the same rank order as the observed distances. By using “Least-square monotonic regression” method, the distances from the points are regressed on the observed distances. Stress value reveals the goodness of fit and these values that are close to zero indicate that NMDS solution is a good fit to the original observed distances (Tekbudak and Tatlıdil, 2011). Stress value is defined as the following formula:

GDPG: GDP Growth, annual, percentage GDPPC: GDP Per Capita, Current USD RE2: Revenue to Expenditure Coverage Ratio, percentage XM: Exports to Imports Coverage Ratio, percentage CAB: Current Account Balance (% of GDP), percentage INF: Inflation Rate, percentage The presented data are retrieved from World Databank and IMF, World Economic Outlook Databases. In line with the purpose of this paper, these variables are the prevalent variables reflecting the economic development of a country. In this regard, these variables are used to perform NMDS method and to obtain the development ordination of the selected countries. By performing NMDS method, graphical representation of development ordination of 12 countries becomes more meaningful and from this representation, development comparison of these countries is disclosed more explicitly.

(1) 2

The NMDS algorithm minimizes the stress value by iteratively moving the configuration of samples in ordination space. This algorithm is done by using minimization process. Depending on the similarities and dissimilarities, the monotone regression curve may

Since the data for Revenue to Expenditure Coverage Ratio of Egypt and Turkey for the year of 2001 is not available, they are obtained by using Missing Value Analysis. 3 Principal component analysis (PCA) is a multivariate technique that transforms a set of correlated data to the set of uncorrelated data; that is, PCA eliminates the correlation among the variables in the data set (Abdi and Williams, 2010).

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same data set of these categories for the years of 2001 and 2010. PCA is a multivariate technique that transforms a set of correlated data to the set of uncorrelated data; that is, PCA eliminated the correlation among the variables in the data set (Abdi and Williams, 2010). The results of PCA of DI category for the year of 2001 show that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 99.29% whereas the other dimension has a very little proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2001. Similarly, the results of PCA for DI category for the year of 2010 indicate that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 99.95% whereas the other dimension has a very little proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2010. So, the evaluations and interpretations about the twodimensional plots are made according to the Dimension 1. According to Chart 1 which represents two dimensional perceptual maps of development indicators for the years of 2001 and 2010, CIVETS, BRIC and KM countries show a similar and progressive pattern in economic development during the period of 2001 to 2010. By Dimension 1, being on the same order vertically reveals the similarities of the countries. The countries at the right side of the plots imply the level of the development. For example, since South Korea is far from the other countries to the right side of the plots for 2001 and 2010, it can be said that South Korea is the most developed country among the selected countries in the view of development. So, it can be said that the further the countries lie from the vertical zero line to the right side, the more developed they are. For the year 2001, by Dimension 1, these 12 selected countries can be separated into three groups depending on their development patterns. South Korea is the most distant country among 12 countries and has relatively higher values of development indicators for this year. So, South Korea comprises the first group. The second group is comprised of Malaysia, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Turkey and Russia. Moreover, Egypt, India, Vietnam, China and Indonesia are the countries grouped as the third country for 2001. As for the year of 2010, the same situation and the similar groups are seen explicitly. However, in 2010, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia and Russia improved their positions in the view of development process during the period of 2001 to 2010 since they shift to the right side slightly. PCA results of CR category for the year of 2001 show that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 61.98% whereas the other dimension has smaller proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2001. Similarly, the results of PCA for CR category for the year of 2010 indicate that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 64.08% whereas the other dimension has a comparatively little proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2010. So, the evaluations and interpretations about the two-dimensional

plots are made according to the Dimension 1, too. However, in this case, being on the left side implies the high level of competitiveness. Based on Chart 2, since South Korea, Malaysia and South Africa are the most distant countries on the left side, it can be stated that they were at a more competitive position in the view of international competitiveness in 2001 by Dimension 1. In the view of international competitiveness, South Korea, South Africa and Malaysia are classified in the first group, China, Turkey, Vietnam, Brazil, Russia and Colombia are grouped as the second and India, Indonesia, and Egypt are in the third group for year 2001 (The details of the competitiveness rankings are given in the Annex 3). Based on these groups, it can be said that countries in first group are at a more advantageous position than the countries in the second and the third group since the rankings of Malaysia and South Korea are higher. According to the second group, South Africa, Turkey, Russia, Brazil Vietnam, Colombia and China are at the approximately same competitive position. This interpretation is also valid for the countries in the third group such that India, Indonesia and Egypt are regarded as the countries at the approximately same competitiveness level. As for the year 2010, approximately same scene takes place. South Korea and Malaysia are taken as in the first group, China, Turkey, Vietnam, South Africa and Colombia are classified into the second group and India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia and Egypt are placed in the third group by Dimension 1. So, from this point of view, it can be deducted that Brazil and Russia have lost their significance in the international competitiveness and shifted to the right side during the period of 2001 to 2010 (Arslan and Tatlidil, 2012). As for another measure of economic development, Human Development (HDI) is an attractive measure in the recent years. The concept of HDI is more comprehensive in the view of increasing people’s choices and the level of well-being of the society. In computing HDI, three sub-indices are calculated such as “life expectancy index”, “education index” and “gross national income index”. After obtaining these sub-indices, HDI is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of these sub-indices (Tekbudak and Tatlidil, 2011). PCA results of HDI category show that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 81.91% whereas the other dimension has a slightly smaller proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2001. Similarly, the results of PCA for HDI category for the year of 2010 indicate that the proportion of total variance explained by Dimension 1 is 84.18% whereas the other dimension has a relatively little proportion of total variance explained for the year of 2010. So, the evaluations and interpretations about the twodimensional plots are made according to the Dimension 1, as well. Similar to the Chart 1, being on the right side reveals the high level of human development. According to Chart 3, for the year 2001, South Korea can be

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Chart 1. Two-Dimensional Plot of Development Indicators for 12 Selected Countries for the years of 2001 and 2010. Source: World Databank, IMF WEO Database, 2012.

Chart 2. Two dimensional plot of international competitiveness for 12 selected countries for the years of 2001 and 2010. Source: WEF (World Economic Forum), IMD (International Institute for Management Development) and IFC (International Finance Corporation).

classified into the first group, which has the highest HDI value and which is the most distant country to the right side. As for the second group, Turkey, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Malaysia can be selected whereas India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Colombia and China are taken as being in the third group in line with the HDI. According to this criterion, South Korea has the highest HDI whereas India has the lowest HDI for the year 2001. The same pattern is also valid for the year 2010 roughly. However, in 2010, China and Colombia switch from the second group to the third one by improving their education, life expectancy and national income since they move to the right side in the two-dimensional plot for the year 2010. The other countries remain their positions during the period of 2001 to 2010 (The details of HDI components in percentages and the data for HDI are

given in the Annex 4).. DISCUSSION The concept of economic development has been given remarkable attention for many years. The term of economic development is regarded as the main objective to reflect the growth of the economy or development in a society. Since the traditional measures of economic development donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t well fit its real meaning, there are recent attempts to find out new measures. In this regard, the most well-known measure is the measure of Human Development Index since HDI reflects economic and social development and the well-being of the society. In reference to the implications of development

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Estimation values (USD)

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Year Chart 4. GDPPC estimation (extrapolation) values for the period of 2011 to 2023, current USD i. Source: World Databank, 2012.

adventure of 12 selected countries in the future, estimation for GDP per capita is performed for the period of 2010 to 2023. In explaining economic development or growth, the most broadly accepted indicators are GDP (Gross Domestic Product), GNP (Gross National Product) since they measure the well-being or standards of living of the society. In performing this estimation, different trend models are used depending on the R-squared values for each country. GDP per capita estimation is carried out separately for each country such that for Brazil and Russia linear estimation, for China, Colombia, Egypt, Malaysia and South Africa polynomial estimation, for India, Vietnam and Indonesia exponential estimation and for South Korea and Turkey power estimation is performed depending on R-squared values. In this regard, for the period of 2011 to 2023, estimation of GDP per capita is represented in a graph with the period of 2001 to 2010 as the following. According to Chart 4, South Korea is expected to reach the highest levels of GDPPC among the selected countries. After South Korea, Russia seems to be the second one with the highest GDPPC. Brazil, Malaysia, Colombia, China, Indonesia and Turkey seem to be approximately at the same position in the view of GDPPC whereas Egypt, South Africa, Vietnam and India are the countries which are expected to be at the same position during the period of 2011 to 2023. From this chart, it can be clearly seen that during the period of 2011 to 2023 GDP levels are anticipated to increase approximately for all selected countries. Because, with the raise of technology, production levels are increasing which in turn

leads to an increase in the income levels. As for three countries with the highest GDP per capita increase, Russia has shown 79.96% increase, China has shown 76.5% increase and Indonesia has shown 74.86% increase during the period of 2001 to 2010. However, these three countries are expected to change during the period of 2011 to 2023. Indonesia is estimated to have 82.72%, Vietnam is estimated to have 79.22% and India is estimated to have 77.57% GDPPC increase during this period. Moreover, as to Turkey, whereas there was 69.78% GDPPC increase during the period of 2001 to 2010, Turkey is estimated to have 36.18% GDPPC increase during the period of 2011 to 2023 (The details of the figures can be found in Annex 1). Conclusion This paper has examined the development adventure of 12 selected countries by using NMDS technique for the period of 2001 to 2010. This analysis of the paper has indicated that each country has been different positions depending on DI, CR and HDI during this period. Since these three categories comprises of separate indicators, the difference between each countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s positions for three categories is possible and plausible. With the help of NMDS technique, development adventure of these countries has been examined and the distances between each country in the view of DI, CR and HDI have been seen. After investigating the two dimensional perceptual maps of DI, CR and HDI, it can be clearly said that different countries have been development players in

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Annex 1. GDP per capita (in USD) and difference in percentages for the selected countries during the period of 2001-2010.

Country Brazil China Colombia Egypt India Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia Russia South Africa Turkey Vietnam

2001 3129.8 1041.6 2442.8 1417.3 459.6 742.1 10654.9 3871.7 2100.7 2638.2 3036.7 415.7

2002 2812.3 1135.4 2391.3 1251.9 480.2 893.3 12093.8 4113.6 2375.2 2440.0 3553.1 440.8

2003 3041.7 1273.6 2274.4 1159.8 558.4 1058.3 13451.2 4397.5 2976.1 3647.7 4567.5 491.5

2004 3609.9 1490.4 2764.8 1082.4 642.6 1143.5 15028.9 4874.8 4108.6 4695.0 5832.7 557.8

2005 4743.3 1731.1 3404.3 1208.7 731.7 1257.7 17550.9 5285.5 5337.1 5234.6 7087.7 642.3

2006 5793.4 2069.3 3724.3 1422.3 820.3 1585.7 19676.1 5890.3 6946.9 5468.3 7687.1 731.1

2007 7197.0 2651.3 4681.2 1695.8 1055.1 1859.3 21590.1 6904.6 9146.4 5930.1 9246.0 843.2

2008 8629.0 3413.6 5433.5 2078.8 1027.9 2171.7 19028.0 8099.2 11700.2 5612.9 10297.5 1070.2

2009 8391.7 3748.9 5172.9 2370.7 1126.9 2272.7 16958.7 6902.2 8615.7 5738.3 8553.7 1129.7

2010 10992.9 4433.0 6237.5 2698.4 1375.4 2951.7 20540.2 8372.8 10481.4 7271.7 10049.8 1224.3

Difference (2001-2010) 71.53 76.50 60.84 47.48 66.59 74.86 48.13 53.76 79.96 63.72 69.78 66.04

Annex 2. GDP per capita (in USD) and difference in percentages for the selected countries during the period of 2011-2023.

Country Brazil China Colombia Egypt India Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia Russia South Africa Turkey Vietnam

2011 12594 5430 7067 2781 1489 3495 22424 9656 13089 8070 10498 1411

2012 12371 6153 7922 3485 1721 3883 22063 10181 13713 7947 11309 1631

2013 13359 7093 8832 4016 1945 4512 22616 11044 14834 8336 11843 1856

2014 14346 8114 9807 4602 2199 5242 23140 11955 15954 8708 12359 2113

different periods depending on their performance in the economy. To evaluate the positions of the selected countries in the future, GDPPC estimation has been performed for the period of

2015 15333 9213 10847 5244 2486 6090 23638 12912 17075 9061 12860 2406

2016 16320 10392 11951 5942 2811 7076 24115 13916 18196 9398 13347 2739

2017 17307 11651 13120 6695 3178 8221 24571 14967 19316 9717 13822 3119

2018 18294 12989 14354 7504 3592 9551 25009 16065 20437 10018 14284 3551

2019 19281 14406 15653 8368 4061 11097 25430 17209 21558 10302 14736 4042

2020 20269 15903 17016 9287 4592 12893 25837 18401 22679 10569 15178 4602

2011 to 2023 (Details are attached as shown in Annex 2). According to this estimation values, Russia is expected to reach the highest levels of GDPPC among the selected countries. After

2021 21256 17479 18444 10262 5191 14979 26229 19639 23799 10818 15610 5240

2022 22243 19134 19937 11293 5869 17403 26609 20924 24920 11049 16034 5965

2023 23230 20869 21495 12379 6635 20220 26977 22256 26041 11263 16450 6791

Difference (2011-2023) 45.79 73.98 67.12 77.53 77.57 82.72 16.88 56.61 49.74 28.35 36.18 79.22

Russia, Brazil seems to be the second one with the highest GDPPC. As for the third country with the highest rank of GDPPC, Malaysia is expected to be at the third position among these 12

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Annex 3. Competitiveness rankings in percentages for the years of 2001 and 2010 and difference in percentages for the selected countries for the period of 2001-2010.

Countries Brazil China Colombia Egypt India Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia Russia South Africa Turkey Vietnam

WEF 58.67 52.00 86.67 68.00 76.00 85.33 30.67 40.00 84.00 45.33 72.00 80.00

2001 IMD 32.65 24.49 42.86 30.61 38.78 48.98 22.45 20.41 44.90 34.69 40.82 36.73

IFC 69.71 61.71 43.43 94.29 78.86 74.86 13.14 14.29 55.43 16.00 48.00 56.00

WEF 37.32 18.31 47.89 66.20 39.44 32.39 16.90 14.79 46.48 35.21 41.55 45.77

2010 IMD 74.58 32.20 77.97 89.83 54.24 62.71 37.29 27.12 83.05 88.14 66.10 61.02

IFC 69.40 43.17 18.58 51.37 73.22 66.12 8.74 11.48 67.21 21.31 35.52 42.62

Difference (2001-2010) WEF IMD IFC -21.34 41.92 -0.32 -33.69 7.71 -18.54 -38.78 35.11 -24.85 -1.80 59.22 -42.92 -36.56 15.46 -5.63 -52.94 13.73 -8.74 -13.77 14.84 -4.40 -25.21 6.71 -2.81 -37.52 38.15 11.78 -10.12 53.44 5.31 -30.45 25.29 -12.48 -34.23 24.28 -13.38

Annex 4. HDI components in percentages for the years of 2001and 2010 and difference in percentages for the selected countries for the period of 2001-2010.

Country Brazil China Colombia Egypt India Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia Russia South Africa Turkey Vietnam

2001 0.622 0.469 0.597 0.530 0.410 0.460 0.749 0.652 0.634 0.617 0.649 0.396

Income index Difference 2010 (2001-2010) 0.657 3.50 0.606 13.70 0.628 3.10 0.569 3.90 0.499 8.90 0.511 5.10 0.802 5.30 0.699 4.70 0.706 7.20 0.649 3.20 0.684 3.50 0.471 7.50

Education index Difference 2001 2010 (2001-2010) 0.599 0.663 6.40 0.535 0.623 8.80 0.577 0.667 9.00 0.487 0.560 7.30 0.365 0.450 8.50 0.484 0.584 10.00 0.862 0.934 7.20 0.654 0.730 7.60 0.733 0.784 5.10 0.690 0.705 1.50 0.503 0.583 8.00 0.454 0.503 4.90

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World Bank (2012). Databank, World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance 2012 Database. Weisbrot M, Ray R (2011). The Scoreboard on Development, 19602010: Closing the Gap? DESA Work. Pap. (106):1-30. Yalew AW (2011). Assessing Sustainability of Economic Growth of Brazil, China, India and South Africa: A Comparative Study, Department of Policy Studies, TERI Univ. pp.1-55.

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Data on GDP and GDP per capita levels can be seen in the Appendix part as an Annex 1, 2 or 3.

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