DRAFT Saint John: Coastal Hazards Characterization

Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………...

2.0: Factors that Contribute to a Changing Coastline to cause Instability………………………….

2.1 Tidal Variation in the Bay of Fundy………………………………………………………...

2.2: Sea Level Rise……………………………………………………………………………….

2.3: Flooding……………………………………………………………………………………….

2.4 Hurricanes……………………………………………………………………………………..

2.5 Geology………………………………………………………………………………………..

2.6 Weathering…………………………………………………………………………………….

2.6.1 Physical Weathering……………………………………………………………...

2.6.2 Biophysical Weathering……………………………………………………………

2.6.3 Chemical Weathering……………………………………………………………...

2.6.4 Biochemical Weathering…………………………………………………………..

2.7 Anthropogenic Input…………………………………………………………………………..

3.0 Types of Mass Movement…………………………………………………………………………….

3.1 Fall……………………………………………………………………………………………...

3.2 Solifluction……………………………………………………………………………………..

3.3 Flow…………………………………………………………………………………………….

3.4 Slump…………………………………………………………………………………………..

3.5 Slide…………………………………………………………………………………………….

3.6 Creep…………………………………………………………………………………………...

4.0 Historical Data of New Brunswick…………………………………………………………………....

4.1 Storm Surges………………………………………………………………………………….

4.1.1 Large Historical Storm Surges……………………………………………………

4.2 Tides…………………………………………………………………………………………...

4.3 Past Infrastructure…………………………………………………………………………….

4.4 Saltation……………………………………………………………………………………….

4.5 Earthquakes…………………………………………………………………………………...

5.0 Extreme Cases of Instability in New Brunswick…………………………………………………...

5.1 Tantramar Region…………………………………………………………………………….

5.2 Red Head, Saint John………………………………………………………………………..

5.3 Saint Cove Road, Saint John………………………………………………………………..

5.4 Eastern Coast of New Brunswick…………………………………………………………...

5.5 Lorneville Cove………………………………………………………………………………..

6.0 Tips for Coastal Infrastructure………………………………………………………………………..

6.1 Elevation……………………………………………………………………………………….

6.2 Drill Core Samples…………………………………………………………………………….

6.3 Slope…………………………………………………………………………………………...

6.4 Geology to Avoid……………………………………………………………………………...

7.0 Options to Minimize Coastal Hazards……………………………………………………………….

7.1 Soft Protection………………………………………………………………………………...

7.2 Hard Protection………………………………………………………………………………..

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7.3 Hybrid Protection……………………………………………………………………………...

7.4 Geology to Avoid……………………………………………………………………………...

8.0 Ecosystems at Risk…………………………………………………………………………………...

8.1 Coastal Environments and Ecosystems in the Maritime Provinces 8.2 Species at Risk in Saint John……………………………………………………………….

8.2.1 Birds………………………………………………………………………………...

8.2.2 Herptiles…………………………………………………………………………….

8.2.3 Terrestrial Mammals……………………………………………………………...

8.2.4 Aquatic Mammals………………………………………………………………...

8.2.5 Terrestrial and Aquatic Insects…………………………………………………..

8.2.6 Fish …………………………………………………………………………………

9.0 Considerations ………………………………………………………………………………………..

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List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………………………..

List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………………….

References………………………………………………………………………………………………….

List of Tables

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Table 1: RCP8.5 Sea Level Change in SJ County (from IPCC AR5)..............................................

Table 2: Storm Surge Predictions for Saint John County (from IPCC AR5)....................................

List of Figures

Figure 1: Map of the world's coastlines and the extent in ranking format of how they will be affected in the future due to shoreline degradation. Navy blue dots represent cities that have populations of 1 million or more; this in turn demonstrates how close largely populated areas are located along the coastline which in turn will have a severe effect on socioeconomic relations….

Figure 2: Comparison between the AR5 and the AR4 emission scenarios from the AR5 WGI report………………………………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 3:Global sea level rise estimated for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 from AR5………………...

Figure 4:The trends in the total annual precipitation in millimeters from Saint John, New Brunswick from the time period between 1895 and 2006 with a five year moving average from 1897 to 2001. All of the values calculated were from the sum of the daily precipitation values…..

Figure 5: Comparison of the historical precipitation return periods for a 24 hour precipitation events with projects for the future return periods. The time periods correspond to the following dates: Historical (1961-1990), 2020’s (2010-2039), 2050’s (2040-2069), and the 2080’s (2070-2099). The above projections came from the SDSM models with data provided for graph A from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and for graph B by the United Kingdom’s Hadley model (HadCM3) run using the B2 scenario that was described by the IPCC in 2000…………….

Figure 6:The observed sea level change from the historic tide gauge in Saint John, New Brunswick. The baseline is set at the mean for the historical record which has a datum of 4.369 m……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Figure 7: The average sea level changes in Saint John, New Brunswick. The solid blue line indicates a reconstruction of the annual mean sea level from the historical tide gauge record.

The continuing dashed blue line shows a projected sea level rise as a result of crustal subsidence and the solid green line indicates the projected sea level change from the combined values of the relative sea level rise from crustal subsidence, the actual sea level rise from thermal expansion, and tidal amplification. The baseline for this value is set at the average for the historical record with a datum of 4.369 m…………………………………………………………...

Figure 8: World map of the amount of sea level rise in millimeters per year with an assumed 1mm/year contribution from a) Antarctica, b) Greenland, and c) mountain glaciers and ice caps to global sea level. Note that this does not include the etent of all three various contributions combined…………………………………………………………………………………………………....

Figure 9: The network of GPS stations around Canada and their associated measured vertical motion field in that locality. Areas that have blue bars are subsiding and the areas that have red bars are uplifting…………………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 10: Map of the East Coast Region in Canada showing the plots of contribution of vertical land movement (VLM) to regional sea level change values, measured in centimeters, for the period between 1995 to 2100. The green contour shows a division between the areas of rebound (red figured and contours) and subsidence (blue figures and contours) over the province of New Brunswick………………………………………………………………………………..

Figure 11: The flood risk map for an approximately 1 m storm surge level for key areas within the city of Saint John, New Brunswick in the year 2100 assuming a sea level rise of 0.7 (prediction). Areas within the yellow lines for the Inner Harbour, Saint’s Rest Marsh, and Red Head Road are flood lines in a 1 m storm surge landing at MHHW taking into account a 0.7 m sea level rise. The Marsh Creek flood map is from Drisdelle (2006) based on LiDAR altimetry data showing flood lines for a 4.6 m sea level in the year of 2100 which roughly corresponds to the 8.8 m chart datum……………………………………………………………………………………..

Figure 12: Examples of some areas around Saint John, New Brunswick that will become increasingly vulnerable to storm surge effects as a result of the impacts of sea level rise over the next 100 years……………………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 13: A comparison of the former extent of the Great Marsh and the resulting flood levels from a storm surge in the year 2100 that results in a 4.6 m water level (orthometric).....................

Figure 14: The frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes with their combined total in the North Atlantic region since 1850 displaying cyclic variations but an overall increase in the combined number of storms and the types of storm events alone………………………………………………..

Figure 15: The frequency of hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occurring since 1850 in the North Atlantic region. The graph displays cyclic variations in the hurricane events but show a general overall large increase in hurricanes and a slight increase in major hurricanes occurring in the North Atlantic Region……………………………………………………...

Figure 16: Frequency of hurricanes and their associated intensity in the North Atlantic region in decadal divisions during the last 110 years. Their is a cyclic variation that occurs but nevertheless, the recorded hurricanes show an increase overall in higher intensity hurricanes occurring…………………………………………………………………………………………………….

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Figure 17: Biophysical weathering at Welsford Falls; Spruce tree grows through coarse grained holocrystalline granite to reach water source fracturing the rock……………………………………..

Figure 18: A diagram explaining how climate change influences various occurrences with regards to the ocean and how those cause differences in the natural environment; this demonstrates a positive feedback system……………………………………………………………....

Figure 19: Diagrams of mass movements that are placed in specific sequences to help visualize how fast or slow a movement occurs and also if it occurs during wet or dry environmental conditions…………………………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 20: Types of mass movements that can occur with their related movement type and material associated with it………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 21: Exposed bluff face of a very fine grained sand that has slumped towards to foreshore over time. The sand is not lithified to any extent and is easily broken apart by hands. At the bottom of the face there is coarse pebbles and boulders that have dropped out of the mixture as a result of erosional processes such as gravity………………………………………………………...

Figure 22: Front profile of a section along Red Head Road’s shoreline. The exposed bluff face of the very fine sand mixture varies between a thickness of 3-4 meters in height (that can be observed) and shows a high degree of rotational motion (slumping) occurring along the entire face. Vegetation that is closer to the ground, receiving the most wave action, is undercut………..

Figure 23: Figure 23: A section of the coastline along Red Head Road showing how some neighbors have put in their own engineered structures to mitigate against erosion; you can see a sea wall in the far back and riprap closer to the front of the photograph…………………………..

Figure 24:Another section along the Red Head Road coastline; exposed bluff face is continuously shown throughout this length of the shoreline. In the middle part of the picture you can see some larger boulders that have either fallen down from a higher stratigraphic layer, or has fallen out of the very fine sand mixture overtime. Additionally, you can see how little vegetation there is on the exposed bluff with dense vegetation still intact, travelling with the slump as it moves farther onto the foreshore of the coastline. ……………………………………….

Figure 25: Travelling east along the Sheldon Point Trail in the Irving Nature Park. View of the bluff face as well as the sandy shore and amount of vegetation present…………………………….

Figure 26: Image of a rotational slide occurring along the Sheldon Point Trail. Fine grained sand that is weakly lithified is shown as the toe of the slump; one can see parallel bedding planes that are rotated upwards and how little vegetation is present to mitigate against erosion...

Figure 27: Mass movement occurring along the Sheldon Point Trail which is displaying successive mass movement events as there is two exposed bluff faces present. The face on the lower right hand side is the oldest whereas the face in the middle of the photo is younger……….

Figure 28: Slump successions along the Sheldon Point Trail; The larger grains indicate the bottom layer along the slump and any finer grained sand below it is indicative of an older slump event………………………………………………………………………………………………………...

Figure 29: Coarse sand overtop of the very fine sand layer. Shown here is an example of the very steep slope with little to no vegetation that is present along the majority of the coastal section of the Sheldon Point Trail. The toe of the slope, which is very fine grained sand, has already been eroded away without difficulty most likely by wave action of a heavy rainfall event.

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Channels from past rainfall events are still present and will likely be cut deeper in the future by similar events which in turn will cause additional erosion……………………………………………..

Figure 30: Drainage patterns observed in coarse grained sand travelling east along the Sheldon Point Trail. Large Boulders that remain in place dictate the flows movement and in future precipitation events will continue to be undercut creating a steeper slope and accelerating the erosion rate in that location……………………………………………………………………………….

Figure 31: Steep slope of alternating very fine grained sand, fine grained sand, and coarse grained sand with larger pebbles present. No layers are consolidated and therefore can move very easily with any applied force. There is no vegetation present to resist these forces and talus slopes have already formed as a result. This area in particular along the Sheldon Point Trail is very susceptible to erosional processes………………………………………………………………...

Figure 32: The remaining pieces of a historic wharf along McLaren Beach which can be accessed by Sand Cove Road in west Saint John. It is unknown at this time how the wharf was removed. Also shown is one of the layers of armour stone used to protect the shore from erosion……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Figure 33: Armouring techniques of a seawall (right hand side) put in place by a local resident as well as the armour stone rip rap put in place in succession. Closest to the bottom of the picture and the shore, is a mafic rock and further up near the bluff face is the polymictic conglomerate. Looking closely along the cut bank, it is evident that there is little vegetation along the steep slope and that the sides of the sea wall are continuing to erode…………………..

Figure 34: A series of two hard protection methods put in place by a local resident along McLaren Beach. Closest to the shore is a small layer of armour stone creating riprap and then behind that, a wooden seawall built to protect the bluff face from wave action. However, if you look just above the wooden sea wall you can see how large wave events, such as a storm surge, has undercut the bank leaving the bushes hanging overhead………………………………..

Figure 35: Part of the shoreline entering from Post Office Road in Lorneville showing the concrete and asphalt riprap put in place………………………………………………………………...

Figure 36: Riprap near bridge in Lorneville and undercut road from large storm events…………..

Figure 37: Trees on the smaller Lorneville cove off of Post Office road. The larger tree as the forefront of the picture has been undercut by erosion decreasing its stability; it will likely fall in the future if it continues to be undercut as there is no vegetation below to stabilize the slope. In the background there are small fir trees; due to their slope they are slowly sliding down due to erosion and have a slight bend at their base which is evidence of the mass movement of creep occurring…………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Figure 38: Evidence of creep occurring around the coast of Lorneville Cove……………………….

Figure 39: Large scale of previous mass movement that has occurred along the large Lorneville Cove. The bluff face consists of unconsolidated glacial till that is easily eroded away. Very little and small vegetation present to stabilize the slope from any future erosion………………………..

Figure 40: Steep banks of very fine and weakly lithified sand overlain by unconsolidated glacial till. Previous fallen trees are present from historical erosion events and the bank continues to be cut back. Very little vegetation is present to stabilize the erosion occurring and the vegetation

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above is being undercut by erosional processes. If this continues it is likely that the trees along the top of the bluff will continue to fall and the coastline will recede………………………………...

Figure 41: A summary of different types of adaptations and the methods of differentiation between them……………………………………………………………………………………………….

Figure 42: A framework that outlines the major steps within the adaptation processes in relation to climate change…………………………………………………………………………………………..

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1.0 Introduction In lieu of our changing climate, there is a changing coastline in which coastal populations should be aware of. Coastal areas are constantly changing due to natural processes where the ocean meet the land. As a result of rising sea level, more energy can be transferred through the ocean in the form of storm surges, tidal cycles, and waves. With an increased transfer of energy, the shoreline can expect to be eroding more and thus have more hazards associated with it over a shorter time interval. With an increased ocean temperature this also allows for chemical weathering processes to occur that may have not been possible, or evident beforehand. Overall, an amplification of hazards is forthcoming due to our changing climate.

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Coastal hazards include the physical occurrences that expose coastal areas to the risk of loss of life, environmental degradation, and a risk of property. These hazards can occur instantaneously, in a matter of minutes, or over a longer period of time such as decades.

Instantaneous occurrences around the world include major cyclones accompanied by high winds, large storm surges, or tsunamis created by underwater earthquakes and or landslides.

Slower hazards develop incrementally over large time periods and include erosion or gradual inundation of the coastline.

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The characteristics of a coastal environmental pose great challenge to human habitation and influences. On their own, coastlines are naturally highly dynamic systems that exhibit interactions between marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric processes. As a result, the system undergoes continuous changes in response to their on going processes and the majority of humans have failed to acknowledge or recognize this.

Source: Burke et al., 2001

Figure 1: Map of the world's coastlines and the extent in ranking format of how they will be affected in the future due to shoreline degradation. Navy blue dots represent cities that have populations of 1 million or more; this in turn demonstrates how close largely populated areas are located along the coastline which in turn will have a severe effect on socioeconomic relations.

2.0 Factors that Contribute to a Changing Coastline to cause Instability 2.1 Tidal Variation in the Bay of Fundy

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The Bay of Fundy is home to the largest tides in the world, reaching upwards to 14m in some areas at its head due to the channeling effect of the Bay. The tides are caused by the gravitational pull between Earth’s oceans and its moon and therefore have tidal cycles of 12.4 hours (one low tide and one high tide). During a lunar day, which is 24 hours and 50 minutes, the amount of water moving in and out of the Bay of Fundy is equivalent to four times the combined discharge of all the world’s rivers combined (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004).

Consequently, due to the Bay of Fundy having such a large volume of water moving in and out with 2 tidal cycles a day, it is a main contributing factor to coastal erosion on the southern shores of New Brunswick and the northern shores of Nova Scotia (Hunter and Associates, 1984)​.

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The largest tides that occur arrive in sets of 7 months, 4.53 years, and 18.03 years (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004); When the relative positions of the Moon, Sun, and Earth all coincide, exceptionally large tides occur causing an increase above its average energy by about 40% and relatively can also decrease by 40% than average when they do not all coincide (Fairbridge, 1966). These occurrences allow for resonance to occur in the Bay of Fundy which in turn causes a high tidal amplitude, and a large tidal range which is several times larger than the open natural oceanic tide (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004). Overall, there is a general consensus that there is increasing erosion of the sea bed, accompanied by localized bottom scour and its deepening, as well as an increase in the dynamic energy from the tides associated with the Bay of Fundy (Bleakney, 1986; Godin, 1992; Fader, 1996).

The geological significance of the Bay of Fundy is most evident when linked to its contribution to sedimentation and erosion along its coastlines. Wave energy from the tides is largely concentrated in the surface water and can therefore be assumed that the zone of the shoreline that is in contact with the near water surface will be subject to the heaviest erosion as that is where the majority of the energy will be dissipated. Additionally, due to the Bay of Fundy’s high tidal range, wave energy is expended over a variety of various elevations and various environments. As such, it can be concluded that the Bay’s localized estuaries are affected the most from erosional processes (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004).

Atmospheric pressure also plays an important role in tides deviating from their normal observed levels at each locality as it can defer appreciable changes in the sea level. When the pressure in an area is high, the sea level will drop, and when pressure is low the level will rise. Any excess

water will then move to areas where the pressure is below normal (when the pressure is high).

Moreover, a difference of one kilopascal (1 kPa= 1000 millibar) can cause a 0.0975m change in sea level. An atmospheric station in Truro, Nova Scotia has monthly meteorological summaries that can be used to statistically ‘predict’ when these increases or decreases in oceanic atmospheric pressure will occur. The station predicts that a deviation of 2 kPa occurs during 3 or 4 months of the year, and that a deviation of 4 kPa may occur more than once a year (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004).

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Finally, winds and their direction and speed influence the tides in the Bay of Fundy in particular sections. If wind is blowing against the current it will decrease the height of the tide and the rate of the current. However, this may also create a tidal rip allowing the surface waves to steepen to the point of breaking, causing a larger increase in tidal energy at that specific locations (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004).

2.2 Sea Level Rise

In the Bay of Fundy region, the majority of the coastal changes are primarily caused by tidal driven forces of erosion, and the changing of the sea level throughout geologic time (Shaw et al., 1994; Stea et al., 1998). The last glaciation in the region occurred 18 000 years ago and was known as the Wisconsin Glaciation and since its disappearance, certain regions along the Bay of Fundy have been submerging. It has been estimated that since people first arrived in this region, the sea level has risen approximately 40 m, and around 1.2 m since Pere Pierre Baird described the Saint John Harbour. Therefore, it can be assumed that certain areas that used to be be to high to be subjected to wave action, now are (Desplanque and Mossman, 2004). The latest IPCC report concluded that it was an extremely likely event, with more than 95% confidence, that the observed warming since the mid-20th century has been dominantly caused as the result of human activity (Daigle, 2014).

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Source: IPCC AR5 WGI Report, 2013 Figure 2: Comparison between the AR5 and the AR4 emission scenarios from the AR5 WGI report

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Source: IPCC AR5 WPI Report, 2013

Figure 3: Global sea level rise estimated for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 from AR5

Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 4: The trends in the total annual precipitation in millimeters from Saint John, New Brunswick from the time period between 1895 and 2006 with a five year moving average from 1897 to 2001. All of the values calculated were from the sum of the daily precipitation values.

In the future, it is recommended that the average value of mean sea level rise estimated for the selected return period in a particular location is to be used as a tool for sea level rise adaptation methods and planning. It is also important to have updated sea level rise projections on a periodic basis to re evaluate the implications of the surrounding community, infrastructure, and habitat (Daigle, 2014). In previous studies, such as the AR4, a semi-empirical approach was used which yielded conservative results for sea level rise estimates and flooding extents.

However, the current IPCC AR5 report estimated sea level rise with a more dynamic modelling approach that included accelerated ice sheet melting from west Antarctica and Greenland which was not taken into consideration in the previous AR4 report published by the IPCC (Daigle, 2014). As such, the new AR5 model had a global projection with an upper limit of 0.98m, with a 95% confidence level of RCD8.5, increase by 2100. As of these present predictions, anything previously reported is done so with low confidence (Daigle, 2014).

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James et al., (2014) has taken the data provided by the IPCC AR5 of global sea level rise and downscaled the results to regionality. By doing this, it took into consideration the dynamic impacts of: vertical land movement (crustal subsidence), the redistribution of land glacier and ice sheets (West Antarctica and Greenland), meltwater, oceanographic effects of an expected slowing down of the Gulf Stream supply, and land water storage (Daigle, 2014).

The meltwater that comes off of glaciers, ice sheets, and ice caps is not uniformly distributed across the world’s oceans (Farrell and Clark, 1976; Mitrovica et al., 2001; 2009). This is impart due to when ice sheets melt, it exerts a reduced gravitational pull on the surrounding ocean water causing the nearby surface of the water to subsequently fall (Jame et al., 2014); as such this factor decreases proportionally with the distance away from the melt water source (Daigle, 2014). Furthermore, it was concluded that the effect from the distribution of current glacial meltwater would reduce the impacts of global sea level rise in the Atlantic Canadian region but is contingent on that the proportion from Antarctic does not increase in respect to Greenland (Daigle, 2014).

The Gulf Stream that travels along the Atlantic Canadian Provinces provides a dynamic sea surface topography contributing around one meter of amplitude which results in reducing regional sea levels when taking it into account. Consequently, this means that when there is changes in the current it causes differences in the sea surface topography and hence changes in the relative sea level. Jame et al., (2014) has also calculated how the Gulf Stream affects

Atlantic locations for RPC8.5 and in general, New Brunswick shows a regional sea level rise value near 0.2m by 21001 (Daigle, 2014).

Additionally, it was calculated that with the combination of amplitude change and vertical land movement would increase the Bay of Fundy’s tidal amplitude by 0.3m by 2100 (Daigle, 2014).

These findings are based off of a 0.2m/century change in tidal amplitude in the Bay of Fundy and has a net resultant increase of 10 cm in amplitude. Another small contribution to global sea level rise is the effect of the extraction of groundwater for household and industrial usage. Once groundwater is extracted, it returns back into the hydrological cycle by entering the oceans, in turn increasing their observed levels (Daigle, 2014). However, this amount is sea level rise contributed to by this factor is considered to be negligible due to poor data collection and minimal observations.

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The main contributing reason as to why there has been reduced sea level rise predictions is due to the inclusion of meltwater distribution from ice sheets, ice caps, and glaciers. This component was previously never considered on a regional scale before the IPCC AR5 and James et al., (2014). Furthermore, the values were also reduced by the vertical land motion field over New Brunswick, based on a better understanding of crustal rebound and subsidence (James et al., 2014). The IPCC states “it is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond the year 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The amount of longer term sea level rise depends on emissions”.

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It should be noted that this change is solely just in respect to regional oceanographic effects from changes in current and flow within the Gulf Stream and not sea level rise as a whole in New Brunswick

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Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 5: Comparison of the historical precipitation return periods for a 24 hour precipitation events with projects for the future return periods. The time periods correspond to the following dates: Historical (1961-1990), 2020’s (2010-2039), 2050’s (2040-2069), and the 2080’s (2070-2099). The above projections came from the SDSM models with data provided for graph A from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and for graph B by the United Kingdom’s Hadley model (HadCM3) run using the B2 scenario that was described by the IPCC in 2000.

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Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 6: The observed sea level change from the historic tide gauge in Saint John, New Brunswick. The baseline is set at the mean for the historical record which has a datum of 4.369 m.

Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 7: The average sea level changes in Saint John, New Brunswick. The solid blue line indicates a reconstruction of the annual mean sea level from the historical tide gauge record.

The continuing dashed blue line shows a projected sea level rise as a result of crustal subsidence and the solid green line indicates the projected sea level change from the combined values of the relative sea level rise from crustal subsidence, the actual sea level rise from thermal expansion, and tidal amplification. The baseline for this value is set at the average for the historical record with a datum of 4.369 m.

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Source: Mitrovica et al., 2001

Figure 8: World map of the amount of sea level rise in millimeters per year with an assumed 1mm/year contribution from a) Antarctica, b) Greenland, and c) mountain glaciers and ice caps to global sea level. Note that this does not include the etent of all three various contributions combined.

Table 1: RCP 8.5 Sea Level Change in Saint John

Projection for 2010 Sea Level Change (5%) (cm)

Sea Level Change: Median (cm)

Sea Level Change (95%) (cm)

0.6

5.4

10.2

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Projection for 2100 Sea Level Change (5%) (cm)

Sea Level Change: Median (cm)

Sea Level Change (95%) (cm)

42.8

81.1

119.4

As of right now, there is widespread agreement among scientists alike that accelerated climate change is occurring and that its principal driving force is human activities. Unfortunately, our greenhouse gas emissions are not the end of our industrial based society problem to “stop climate change�. Somehow, if measures to reduce or eliminate greenhouse gases were put in place immediately, there would be a lag in the climate system. In turn, this would mean that the past emissions would still continue to affect the climate for several decades as a new equilibrium is being established. Climate change will continue to have impacts on our communities and infrastructure and therefore it is best to proactively adapt to climate change as it is essential to ensure that our surrounding communities remain safe, resilient, and sustainable when faced with climate concerns and events (Daigle, 2014).

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2.3 Flooding

Rising sea levels will in turn increase the probability of extreme storm surge events as well as subsequent flooding events that are associated with these storms. As such, this would introduce salt water into original fresh water systems. Below are diagrams outlining the flood extents with Saint John’s predicted sea level rise including what areas are at risk of flooding events.

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Source: James et al., 2014

Figure 9: The network of GPS stations around Canada and their associated measured vertical motion field in that locality. Areas that have blue bars are subsiding and the areas that have red bars are uplifting.

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Source: James et al., 2014

Figure 10: Map of the East Coast Region in Canada showing the plots of contribution of vertical land movement (VLM) to regional sea level change values, measured in centimeters, for the period between 1995 to 2100. The green contour shows a division between the areas of rebound (red figured and contours) and subsidence (blue figures and contours) over the province of New Brunswick.

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Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 11: The flood risk map for an approximately 1 m storm surge level for key areas within the city of Saint John, New Brunswick in the year 2100 assuming a sea level rise of 0.7 (prediction). Areas within the yellow lines for the Inner Harbour, Saint’s Rest Marsh, and Red Head Road are flood lines in a 1 m storm surge landing at MHHW taking into account a 0.7 m sea level rise. The Marsh Creek flood map is from Drisdelle (2006) based on LiDAR altimetry data showing flood lines for a 4.6 m sea level in the year of 2100 which roughly corresponds to the 8.8 m chart datum.

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Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 12: Examples of some areas around Saint John, New Brunswick that will become increasingly vulnerable to storm surge effects as a result of the impacts of sea level rise over the next 100 years.

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Source: Reeves, 2008 Figure 13: A comparison of the former extent of the Great Marsh and the resulting flood levels from a storm surge in the year 2100 that results in a 4.6 m water level (orthometric).

The extreme total sea level values, or flooding scenarios, have been calculated in the Saint John region to represent the worst possible scenario in regards to flooding. This scenario would occur where a storm surge event occurs near the high portion of the tidal cycle (the spring tide).

Each of the return period statistics have been calculated and in turn provide a relative probability that a given storm surge would coincide with the spring tide. A return period represents the average time between two similar occurrences of an event that exceeded a given level (Daigle, 2014).

2.4 Hurricanes Hurricanes and storm surges are both extreme weather events that can cause a large amount of erosion to occur over a very short geological period of time. As such, they should be taken into consideration when evaluating the risk of erosion in the upcoming future as higher

temperatures, and a higher sea level will only increase the forces involved in a hurricane and will amplify any destruction that comes with it. With increased global surface temperatures increasing, it is predicted that the world as a whole will experience a higher frequency of storms exhibiting higher intensities that before. However, there is a continual debate of what scientists are observing in recent history; Are increased hurricane frequencies a result of climate change or just a response to the cyclic variations, the interplays of ocean currents, and dynamics that are occurring. Below are 3 compiled graphs from recorded data over the last 160 years that display general increases in regards to hurricanes in the North Atlantic region, the area that affects Atlantic Canada.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 14: The frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes with their combined total in the North Atlantic region since 1850 displaying cyclic variations but an overall increase in the combined number of storms and the types of storm events alone.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 15: The frequency of hurricanes and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occurring since 1850 in the North Atlantic region. The graph displays cyclic variations in the hurricane events but show a general overall large increase in hurricanes and a slight increase in major hurricanes occurring in the North Atlantic Region.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 16: Frequency of hurricanes and their associated intensity in the North Atlantic region in decadal divisions during the last 110 years. Their is a cyclic variation that occurs but nevertheless, the recorded hurricanes show an increase overall in higher intensity hurricanes occurring.

2.5 Geology

How bodies of water affect a coastline is largely the result of the geology that is present in that specific area. Foremost, if there is a steep slope present it is more likely that a mass movement will occur as the force of gravity would be larger. If the bedrock has steeply dipping bedding planes that are directed towards the coastline, it is more likely that failure will occur among the bedrock than if it was dipping away from the coastline. If the underburden of the slope is saturated with water, the grains of the soil will become lubricated thus allowing for them to flow better causing a landslide or slump along the slope. The angle of repose will largely affect how stable a slope is in the case of beaches. If the grains are larger or more angular, the angle of repose will be greater than a shoreline that is comprised of rounded, smaller fine grains of sand with of without being water saturated. In the end, the grains of loose sediment on a coastline are held in place due to its weight, and static friction coefficient which are all characteristic of each individual grain.

If the ground on which the coastline sits consists of weakly consolidated underburden, or highly saturated clays or silts, it is more likely that the slope will become unstable and fail in the future.

Additionally, if the area is prone to large earthquakes, of greater than 3 on the Richter Scale

(unlikely in New Brunswick as it is located in the middle of the North American Plate), liquefaction of the ground could occur and cause instability on any slope. Unfortunately, this would not be an easy engineering fix by building retaining walls as it is associated with soil mechanics as well as lateral earth pressure.

2.6 Weathering

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Weathering is the act of breaking down rock into sediments and should not be confused with erosion, which is the act of moving those newly formed sediments to a new location. A range of environmental parameters can cause weathering on an original rock or sediment. However, many weathering actions, such as the creation of hoodoos or sandblasting, are uncommon on the shorelines of New Brunswick. Below are the weathering actions that can be seen occurring along New Brunswick’s coasts which can contribute to coastal hazards.

2.6.1 Physical weathering is when a rock breaks into smaller sediments without changing the chemical composition of the rock. While rock faces have exposure to wave action, hydration and dehydration of rocks can occur. Surrounding bodies of water can hydrate the rock allowing for their volume to increase and then subsequently decrease once the air temperature increases causing dehydration to occur. Due to the sudden loss of volume, rocks can crack during this process and jointing can occur. As such, exfoliation can also occur through these processes, causing layers of rock outcrop to ‘peel’ off when solar heating occurs on the rocks surface.

During the winter months, water makes it way between the cracks of rocks and freezes. When temperatures become milder, during the spring thaw, the pressure that was once there between the cracks of rocks is suddenly removed, causing the rocks to crack and possibly become loose.

This is commonly seen most effectively over a long period of time and seen commonly in areas with a long freeze-thaw cycle. Subsequently, if a rock is subject to salt spray from the Bay of Fundy and not a lot of water is continuously exposed to a rock, salt can precipitate out as the water evaporates. When the salt is wedged between the cracks in rocks, it causes them to grow thus increasing the size of the crack and thus causing the rocks to become loose to form sediments.

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2.6.2 Biophysical weathering is the process of breaking the rock apart into smaller sediments through biological activity without changing the rock’s chemical composition. This is commonly seen in New Brunswick as it is home to a large forestry industry. Trees have large roots that will bury themselves through cracks in rocks to reach water, even if that involves growing on the side of a cliff face. While these roots grow between cracks in rocks, the rocks become loose and will crack more. This can also occur for many bushes, shrubs, and larger plants as well. Burrowing organisms can considerably weaken massive rocks so that it succumbs more to the impact of water; marine worms, boring barnacle, boring sponges, and sea urchins all may aid in this process of removing pieces of rock during movement. A number of small grazing animals such as limpets, chitons, and sea urchins can be found on the coastline which rasp onto the rocky

surfaces to remove algae for food in turn removing minute particles of rocks and pebbles during their travels. Additionally, as holdfasts by kelp and seaweed at attached to rock they frequently break off during storms, carrying small chunks of rock with them as well (coastal book).

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 17: Biophysical weathering at Welsford Falls; Spruce tree grows through coarse grained holocrystalline granite to reach water source fracturing the rock

2.6.3 Chemical weathering is the disintegration of rocks or minerals which are caused by chemical reactions rather than mechanical interactions. It should be noted that chemical weathering can be increased as a result of the various physical weathering processes as a result of an increased surface area to volume ratio. Most chemical weathering is the result of interactions between sources of water and the rock itself. The pH (acidity) and Eh (reduction potential) both affect how the water will interact with the surrounding rock and which minerals can dissolve or precipitate out. Therefore, the water targets specific areas causing weaknesses within the rock.

The water can go between cracks that are present within the rock and also cause internal weakness. If the pH is low, minerals that are preset within rocks will tend to become soluble.

Additionally, due to the interaction of water, iron that is present will also be oxidized just by contact due to its Eh. 2.6.4 Biochemical weathering is the disintegration of rocks or minerals through chemicals created by biological beings rather than by mechanical processes. Many of the fungi and lichen that can act as biological indicators on rock faces which in turn, secrete chemicals in order to eat and/or create a habitable home. Some of these chemicals tend to be acidic, and if the pH is low enough, it can dissolve particular minerals that may be present in a rock causing instability.

Normally seawater is saturated with calcium carbonate and would ordinarily not dissolve carbonate rocks. However, during the night organisms may locally increase acidity in tidal ponds causing solution and producing high tide basins. This can be observed through the small pock marks that are seen near the water's edge which house periwinkles and chitons which may also cause biological leaching of the rocks (Hunter and Associates, 1982). Moreover, as blue green algae provides food for these periwinkles to scrape off of rocks, it may also contribute to the dissolution of carbonates present in the rocks that they are feeding off of.

2.7 Anthropogenic Input

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Humans have often loved building their homes on a waterfront property due to their association with spectacular views. However, if they removed pre-existing vegetation, regraded the slope towards the coast, or put any sort of structure along or through the coastline it could cause instability if it was not already unstable beforehand. By excessively gardening the land, it could cause over saturation of the ground. Additionally, if they built a house or any other structure close to the shoreline, it creates additional stress on the subsurface and therefore could increase the lateral earth pressure which in turn leads to instability of their land.

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Source: Bell and Coco, 2005 Figure 18: A diagram explaining how climate change influences various occurrences with regards to the ocean and how those cause differences in the natural environment; this demonstrates a positive feedback system 3.0 Types of Mass Movement

Mass movement is the movement of surface material as a result of the force of gravity; as such coastlines are all affected as they generally have an associated slope. Mass movement can be broken into six main categories with branching subcategories that are associated with their movement and surface material associated with it. As such, mass movement includes: falls, topples, slides (rotational and translational), spreads, flows, and complex slides which encompass one main type of movement which is then accompanied by at least 2 more other main types of mass movement.

3.1 A fall occurs when a mass is detached from a steep slope, a cliff face, or surfaces with little to no shear displacement and descend to the ground through air by free fall, bouncing, and/or rolling. Topples occur upon surface material when there are movements of rock, debris, or earth that move in a forwards rotations around a central pivot point. A rotational slide is otherwise known as a slump; this occurs when a mass slides outwards and downwards on one or more of the occurring failure surfaces. As such, this imparts a backward tilt to the slipping mass which then sinks in the rear and heaves at the toe. Subsequently, a translational slide moves in a

more planar motion where in which there is a planar failure surface that may run more or less parallel to the existing slope. During a spread mass movement, it creates additional fracturing and lateral extension of the coherent rock, or the soil mass, due to a plastic flow or the liquefaction of the subjacent material. Finally, a flow can occur slowly or rapidly in either wet or dry materials. Flows advance by ‘flowing’ like a viscous fluid which usually follows an initial sliding movement. To branch out further among mass movements, more specific surface movements could occur such as: solifluction, earthflows, mudflows, slumps, rockslides, and soil creep.

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3.2 Solifluction is when watersaturated soil flows down a steep slope. This mass movement commonly occurs where there is permafrost present. As permafrost is impermeable to water, the overlying soil becomes oversaturated and begins to slide downslope due to the pull of gravity. Moreover, locally in New Brunswick it is an issue as if soil has been opened and weakened by frost action, it is most susceptible to solifluction. This type of movement occurs at a maximum of a few inches per day, eventually creating smooth, gentle, concave slopes.

3.3 An earthflow occurs when there is a sheet or stream of soil and rock material that is saturated with water and flows downslope due to the force of gravity. This is the intermediate stage that exists between soil creep and a mudflow. Earthflows typically begin in a larger basin on the upper part of the slope where debris and weathered material tends to accumulate. The downslope movement usually occurs or is set off by a heavy rainfall event. As such, the flow could be relatively slow or very fast depending on the amount of water that is present, the slope present, and the other topographic aspects of the terrain.

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3.4 A slump is a downward intermittent movement of rock debris and is usually the consequence of removing earth at the foot of a slope of unconsolidated material. The movement of slump commonly involves a shear plane in which a back tilting occurs at the top of the slumped mass.

As such, the plane is slightly concave upwards and outwards and separates the slump block form the unslumped material of the same character. In sedimentary stratigraphic units, the slumped material will generally bend elastically until the strength of the rock is exceeded, until it breaks and thus moves more rapidly.

3.5 A rockslide occurs where there is a displacement of material along one or more discrete shearing surfaces of a rock body. During this process, the rocks slide as a whole down the slope and do not heavily break apart during movement. Rockslides can occur downwards and extend outward along a broadly planar surface “fanning out”.

3.6 Soil creep is a mass movement that can occur over a very long period of time over any slope.

Creep is the downslope movement of particles that occur on every slope that is covered with loose, unweathered material. Soil that is covered by closely knit sod also creeps downslope.

Creep can be determined by the persistent tilting of trees, poles, gravestones, and other erect objects downslope on hillsides. The most important process that produces creep besides gravitation influences is frost heaving. As the interstitial water within soil freezes, surface particles are forced upwards and out, perpendicular to the slope, and when thawed from melting the particles are drawn directly down from gravity and thereby move gradually downslope. Other processes that also contribute to soil creep are the wedging action of root growth from biophysical weathering, and the wetting and drying of soil layers.

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Source: Figure 19: Diagrams of mass movements that are placed in specific sequences to help visualize how fast or slow a movement occurs and also if it occurs during wet or dry environmental conditions

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Source: British Geological Survey, 2016 Figure 20: Types of mass movements that can occur with their related movement type and material associated with it

4.0 Historical Data of New Brunswick

4.1 Storm Surges New Brunswick has a archival database where you can access the direction, precipitation measurements, and wind speeds that had occurred during major hurricane events throughout the 20th century. As such, the Maritimes have been impacted by a large number of intense snowfall, hurricane, rainfall, and flooding events in the most recent 20 years. Most of the storms impact a large region throughout the Atlantic Provinces but some locations tend to be more affected than others.

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The “ice storm of the century” occurred during the consecutive days of January 4th to 10th where a storm transformed eastern Canada from the Georgian Bay to the Bay of Fundy into a frozen wasteland. Much of the Maritime landscape had been encrusted with thick ice during this time. It was recorded that the water equivalent of the freezing rain and ice pellets that fell in some regions exceeded 100mm and some of the regions experiencing freezing precipitation held out for 80 consecutive hours. It was approximated that $3 billion dollars in damage had occurred with 1000 transmission tower damages, 30 000 utility pole damages, and millions of trees being toppled over (“The Top 25 Storms in the Past 25 Years”, 2014).

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Moreover just five years later, was the ice storm of February 2003. On Groundhog’s Day there was an ice storm that brought between 40 and 60mm of freezing rain to the East Coast. As a result of the storm impacting south-eastern New Brunswick hard, Moncton ends up experiencing the worst storm in 75 years on record. When the rain finally stopped, wind gusts of up to 75 km/h occurred with plummeting temperatures generating a windchill of -27 C. The after effects caused by the storm included powerlines and trees, that were crusted with 33 mm of ice, being toppled over, and left 60 000 civilians in the cold and dark. In comparison to the ice storm of 1998, it was larger in magnitude and cost more damage to New Brunswick areas (“The Top 25 Storms in the Past 25 Years”, 2014).

During the hurricane season of the same year, hurricane Juan occurred causing $100 million in damages to the Atlantic region. This was a category 2 hurricane that sustained 158 km/h winds when it hit the Halifax Harbour in 2003, the largest city on the East Coast. The associated storm surge was more than 1.5 m high and it was reported that there was 20 m waves in the harbour, which was only a sample of the violent storm that swept many shorelines and cleaned boats from docks. Though Juan did not impart such an impact within the New Brunswick area, similar occurrences could occur in Saint John in the future (“The Top 25 Storms in the Past 25 Years”, 2014).

Finally, during the 2007-2008 winter season there was record deep snow cover with a subsequent sudden warming and lots of rain afterwards; this was the cause of the worst flooding in New Brunswick in 35 years. The resulting flood damaged more than 1600 properties and around 60 people had to be rescued. There were sections along the Trans Canada highway that were submerged and in downtown Fredericton, the flood waters highest recorded peak was

8.36 m. In the end, the damaged totalled more than $50 million in repairs (“The Top 25 Storms in the Past 25 Years”, 2014).

4.1.1 Large Historical Storm Surges The Saxby Gale was an intense storm surge event that caused flooding along the eastern seaboard of the United States and was known as the Great North Eastern Rainstorm and Flood of October 1869. However, as the storm moved north along the coast, the worst of it was saved for Maine and New Brunswick particularly in the areas along the Gulf of Maine and the Bay of Fundy. The Saxby Gale made its landing on the border of New Brunswick and Maine. Instead of flooding associated with the intense rainfall, it was the wind that caused the most severe damage. In Saint John the wind speeds reached between 154 and 176 km/h and the areas of Amherst, Truro, Sackville, and Moncton were all flooded. Due to the winds in the Bay of Fundy being south, south-eastern, the sea water was pushed up the Bay of Fundy Embayment in additions to the water level rise which was induced by the low pressure, the flood water reached 2m above any previous measurement. In Moncton, the Saxby Gale reached an elevation of 10.08m. Using the historical sea level rise of 1.8mm/year it can be determined that the water level has rose 0.25m since the Saxby Gale, and if it occurred again it would be much more devastating (“Adaptation Measures for Greater Moncton Area, New Brunswick”, 2011).

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Environment Canada has kept a record of the top weather events of the 20th century, and by sorting through the Maritime occurrences one can determine that there frequency has increased (“Top Weather Events of the 20th Century”, 2013).

1900-1920 ● Storm Claims Sealers: On April 1st 1914, 77 sealers froze to death during a violent storm that occurred off of the southeast coast of Labrador. During the height of the storm from March 31st to April 2nd the temperature was -23C with winds from the northwest blowing at 64 km/h.

1921-1940 ● August Gale Kills 56 in Newfoundland: During August 24th and 25th in 1927 a hurricane swept through atlantic Canada washing out many roads and filling basements with flood water. As a result of this storm, 56 people that were out at sea off the coasts of Newfoundland lost their lives.

1941-1960 ● Deadly Snowstorm in St. John’s: On February 16th 1959 there was a snowstorm with strong winds creating 7m high drifts, blocking main roads and causing 6 human casualties. During the same event, 70 000 Newfoundlanders were left in their homes without power, telephone service was down, and there was blocked highways, streets, and railways.

●

Fishing Fleet Disaster off Esuminac, New Brunswick: On June 20th 1959, more than 30 fishermen drowned in the worst storm disaster that had ever hit the Gulf of St. Lawrence on record. A fishing fleet of 22 salmon boats sunk by an abrupt northeastern Gale.

1961-1980 ● Violent Storm Strikes Maritimes: During December 1st and 2nd in 1964 one of the most violent storms on record hit the Maritimes with gales reaching gust speeds of 160 km/h.

Three fishing boasts, 2 of which were large draggers, were lost to the storm which accounts for the loss of 23 lives. During this time, Halifax and Charlottetown record their lowest sea level pressure on record. ● Hurricane Beth Soaks Nova Scotia: On August 15th 1971, Hurricane Beth brought strong winds and 300mm of rain. This caused considerable drop damage and the swamping of highways and bridges which ended up temporarily isolating communities on the eastern areas of Nova Scotia. There was also more rainfall during Hurricane Beth than during Hurricane Hazel which occurred in 1954. ● Groundhog Day Storm Batters the Bay of Fundy: On February 2nd 1976, one of the most ferocious storms in Maritime history landed in Saint John, New Brunswick. Winds were recorded at 188 km/h and there was the generation of waves that were 12m high as well as swells of 10 m high. Everything was coated in salt spray for kilometers inland and huge chunks of the coastline had been eroded during the event.

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1981-1999 ● Blizzard Maroons Prince Edward Island: During the time period from February 22nd to 26th in 1982 a huge snowstorm with up to 60 cm of snow, 100 km/h winds, zero visibility and wind chills of -35 C paralyzed the island for a week. The storm caused the burying of vehicles and trains in 5 to 7 m drifts of snow and cut off all ties with the mainlands. ● Ocean Ranger Disaster: On February 15th 1982, bad weather had resulted in the sinking of the largest semi-submersible drilling rig in the world which was 300 km of the eastern coast of Newfoundland. In total, 84 people had died in the world's second worst disaster involving an offshore drill ship. Wind of 145 km/h were recorded as well as waves up to 21 m higher, and high seas interfered in the rescue efforts. ● Newfoundland Glaze Storm cuts Power to 200 000: On April 13th 1984, residents of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland were without electricity for days when cylinders of ice with diameters as large as 15 cm formed overhead wires. The severe ice storm lasted 2 days and covered all of southeastern Newfoundland with 25 mm of ice glaze.

Table 2: Storm Surge Predictions for Saint John County

Return Period (yrs)

Surge Residual (+/- 0.20 m)

Level 2010 (+/- 0.40 m)

Level 2030 (+/- 0.47 m)

Level 2050 (+/- 0.54 m)

Level 2100 (+/- 0.78 m)

1

0.47

4.87

5.04

5.18

5.73

2

0.54

4.94

5

0.64

5.04

10

0.71

5.11

25

0.80

5.20

50

0.87

5.27

100

0.94

5.34

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4.2 Tides

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5.25

5.80

5.21

5.35

5.90

5.28

5.42

5.97

5.37

5.51

6.06

5.44

5.58

6.13

5.51

5.65

6.20

The Saint John River provides approximately 70% of the water entering into the Bay of Fundy from its mouth in the Saint John Harbour (International Saint John River Engineering Board, 1963). It is estimated that the Saint John River Basin has a drainage area of 55 000 km^2 and about 29 000 km^2 is in New Brunswick with the remaining balance in Maine and Quebec. As such, there are many circulation systems occurring in the Bay of Fundy from the Gulf of Maine and the mouth of the Saint John River opening up to combine into one. Turbulence is common throughout the New Brunswick coastal zone due to this and is highest near the shore where there is irregular depths . Typically these depths include 20 to 50 m of water and are constricted to the upper, constricted portions of the Bay of Fundy where the tidal velocities are higher and have the quickest the accelerating tides (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

4.3 Past Infrastructure

In the past, there has been development in the Fundy Coastal zone in the form of a single row of houses along the waterfront or roads which run within close proximity. The location of these dwellings has effectively eliminated access to the shoreline; it is expected that in the future many of these dwellings will be put at risk due to erosion. Therefore, trips of single tier frontage subdivisions along with other new developments in the future should be discouraged. Future site planning should discourage random building, and dwellings should be located inland from the shore at least 100m for shore protection and have it as a common land/area (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

In addition, the construction of roadways, bridges, and causeways within coastal areas, in particular alongside or over salt marshes and mudflats, could potentially cause a serious disturbance to the local environment. These roads, which are built on sand, becomes a dam and thus blocks the natural water flow patterns and tidal circulation. Moreover, if contaminants were to exist, the newly created estuary would be converted into a pollution impoundment area (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

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The diking of marshlands in the Tantramar region around Chignecto Bay has eliminated several significant depositional reservoirs for suspended sediment being transported by high tides. The dykes put in place cause accelerated sedimentation rates in the formation of mudflats in the slack water zones where the tidal channels have been barricaded. Therefore, the draining and reclamation of the marshlands has greatly reduced the productive life cycles which had previously existed in the marshes. In addition, the drainage ditches discourage the development of high tidal swales and pools in the area. In the future, proposals for diking and reclamation of the marshlands should be carefully balanced against the forthcoming environmental coasts (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

New Brunswick is home to various pits and quarry areas owned and operated by independent companies. At present, the matter of rehabilitating the pits and quarries are of concern around Canada. The aggregate producers in the Fundy Coastal Zone have not yet committed to a rehabilitation project in regards to their abandoned land. In future scenarios it is suggested that mining and land shaping operations should be planned carefully and programmed in advance, preferably before the mining and quarry initiatives are initiated. Surface mining should be seen as a temporary interruption to our environment where in which economic and biologic productivity can continue. However, until this stance is fully adopted as a majority, abandoned, sterile pits and quarries will continue to be accepted to be permanent aspects of our environment (Coates and Scott, 1979). It is suggested as a management option that abandoned pits and quarries within the coastal zone should be rehabilitated in addition to the creation of rehabilitation plans for active extraction operations within the coastal zone (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

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4.4 Saltation

Hachey (1952) observed that in the waters at the head of the Bay of Fundy at a depth of 1 meter, the salinity had a surprisingly low value of 31.0 ppt along the Chignecto Channel. At the mouth of the Bay of Fundy, salinity was found to be as high as 32.89 ppt and the region between Saint John Harbour and Digby to the head of the Bay, there was a gradation of salinity ranging from 31.0 ppt to 32.5 ppt in the Chignecto region. Isohalines tend to follow the direction of the sea bottom contour levels. As such, the salinities in the deeper portion of the bay of Fundy has an extremely small range from 32.9 ppt to 33.0 ppt below 50m depth. Southeast of the Saint John River mouth, an observation of a pocket of low salinity was observed with concentration between 22.0 ppt and 30.0 ppt and after strong tides, there is an increase in concentration of salt at all levels in the Bay of Fundy (Hunter and Associates, 1982).

4.5 Earthquakes New Brunswick is located relatively in the middle of the North American Plate and is closest to the edge of the divergent boundary. As a result of this, there is very little seismic activity observed across New Brunswick as well as the entire Atlantic region of Canada. Looking back in history 100 years, New Brunswick has had numerous earthquake occurrences. However, most of the earthquakes are small, measuring an average of around 2.0 on the Richter scale, and is unable to be felt by humans. Few occurrences have occurred where the values have been between 3.0-4.0 and could be considered outliers​ (Source..).

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5.0 Extreme Cases of Instability on Coastlines in New Brunswick 5.1 Tantramar Region

In the Tantramar region of Chignecto Bay, near the Cumberland Basin, there is a very high sensitivity index on account of the tides carrying a dissolved load and depositing silt and mud with the creation of tidal marshes and mudflats. With the potential impacts of sea level rise forthcoming, it is expected that both salt marshes and freshwater marsh environments will expand due to an increased height of water tables. Taking this into account, it is a highly vulnerable area for the threat of inundation because of the risk of dykes being breached during future storm surges. This in part would impact transportation services and agricultural land that is provided as a result of the implaces dykes (Shaw et al., 1998).

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The average height of the dykes in the region is 8.6m, which happens to be lower than the lowest severe prediction based on the current 1 in 10 year sea level estimate in the area.

Therefore, it would be assumed that without making the dykes larger, they will become overtopped in the future. The dykes in place were never meant to prevent against flooding events so there is history of their overtopping. At the current 1 in 10 year sea level of 8.9m, 89% of the dykes will be overtopped. At the current estimates for the 1 in 10 year flood cycle in the area, a substantial amount of the community will likely be affected by future events. It is predicted that 1049 parcels and 156 buildings will be affected along with the flooding of major and secondary highways rendering them impassable, the sewage lagoon being flooded, agricultural lands inundated. Areas that have not been affected by the flooding in residential islands in Sackville, NB will remain as islands being isolated by the flood water (Lieske and Bornemann, 2012).

Over the past 50 years, the Tantramar region has been impacted by 2 significant flooding events; one occurred in the spring of 1962 which had a depth of 8.0m and the other occurred during fall of 1999. The flood of 1962 was the most severe flooding of the region in recent history impacting other areas of Nova Scotia as well as Prince Edward Island. The flood resulted from 3 consecutive days of heavy rainfall that coincided with the annual spring freshet.

In the end, it was estimated that the damage done in Sackville alone was $197 000 ($1.55

million today). The second most severe flood in recent history occurred on September 23rd of 1999 resulting from another heavy rainfall event, costing the town of Sackville $6200 ($8800 today) (Lieske et al., 2012).

5.2 Red Head Saint John Heading towards the refinery in east Saint John and taking a right turn, you will reach a community known as Red Head. For decades this community has been plagued by higher erosion rates than that experienced in other areas of Saint John and in 2016, some residents are in fear of losing their homes in the next 50 years. This fear is the result of past erosional activities that are then amplified by the growing issue of accelerated sea level rise along the Bay of Fundy coastlines, as well as the rest of the world. As such, this area has always been of particular concern when talking about erosion in Saint John.

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After travelling to the Red Head coastline, it will be quickly discovered how difficult it is to actually get to, due to the steep slopes that have been created as a result of erosional processes. Once down on the beach, it becomes clear as to why the slope is so susceptible to erosion. Standing on the beach and looking at the exposed bottom layer, that has slumped forth from the slope, there is a thick layer of very fine sand (clay) that ranges between 3 and 4 meters thick. Overtop of this clay layer, there is all of the overburden layers thick with vegetation and mixed grain sizes. The exposed, slumped, clay surface has very little to no vegetation in all areas and any coarse pebbles or boulders that were once in the clay, have fallen out due to erosion.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 21: Exposed bluff face of a very fine grained sand that has slumped towards to foreshore over time. The sand is not lithified to any extent and is easily broken apart by hands. At the bottom of the face there is coarse pebbles and boulders that have dropped out of the mixture as a result of erosional processes such as gravity.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 22: Front profile of a section along Red Head Road’s shoreline. The exposed bluff face of the very fine sand mixture varies between a thickness of 3-4 meters in height (that can be observed) and shows a high degree of rotational motion (slumping) occurring along the entire face. Vegetation that is closer to the ground, receiving the most wave action, is undercut.

The beach shore is made up of very well sorted, subangular, medium grained sand in which very little energy will be dissipated from larger waves carrying immense energy. As such, a lot of energy would be dissipated onto the sloped bluff at the high water level which will continuously undercut the vegetation that overlies the clay layer. Consequently, the clay layer will also become saturated with water with a large exposure which will increase the lubrication between grains allowing for an increased chance in slope failure. Due to the nature of the environment that the exposed clay is subjected to, no lithification of grains is occurring and it very easily broken apart by your hands when picked up.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 23: A section of the coastline along Red Head Road showing how some neighbors have put in their own engineered structures to mitigate against erosion; you can see a sea wall in the far back and riprap closer to the front of the photograph

Many neighbors have put in place their own protection to protect their disappearing land such as riprap or seawalls to try and disperse/ minimize wave energy onto the shore. However, many of these hard engineering structures, if not done properly by an coastal engineer, could potentially put another residents land at risk. As such, it can be concluded that the Red Head area will continue to erode due to wave action at the high water level mark and the shape of the cove that the majority of the erosion is occurring in, and does not seem to be stopping any time soon with reference to its past history of erosion.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 24: Another section along the Red Head Road coastline; exposed bluff face is continuously shown throughout this length of the shoreline. In the middle part of the picture you can see some larger boulders that have either fallen down from a higher stratigraphic layer, or has fallen out of the very fine sand mixture overtime. Additionally, you can see how little vegetation there is on the exposed bluff with dense vegetation still intact, travelling with the slump as it moves farther onto the foreshore of the coastline.

5.3 Sand Cove Road Saint John

As of right now, engineering consultants have been hired by the city of Saint John to investigate the ongoing erosion problem along the city’s westbound Sand Cove road. As of early 2016, this road has been down to one traffic lane coming in and out along particular sections of the road (Smith, 2016c). However, city officials and engineering consultants are convinced that the road will eventually collapse in the future. Municipal engineers of Saint John fear that the section at hand could collapse cutting off the homes and the ever popular Irving Nature Park (Smith, 2016a) which is the primary reason driving the need for change. Over the years, the McLaren’s Beach homeowners have had at least 3 of their homes move in regards to busting foundations, breaking of water lines and even bending of major structures such as homes and garages occurring (Smith, 2016c).

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It was revealed, through the Information Act, that a study had been done in 2004 by Fundy Engineers that shows past history of land movement in the area. The slope along Sand Cove road has multiple tension cracks showing a history of movement. Additionally, there is previous evidence of movement in front of the Inn along Sand Cove road. The report shows that bore holes were dug and instead of bedrock being found, there was sand and gravel over firm or very soft clays. As such, the document states that this is a high erosion rate area, there are weak unconsolidated soils and coastal subsidence occurring, and the material is moving from the foreshore due to wave action (Smith, 2016b).

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As of right now landowners in the area want a breakwater or a sea wall in place to help stabilize the shoreline as it worked in the 1970’s alongside the graveyard property (Smith, 2016a).

However, after consultation the possible options include the construction of a berm or breakwater to limit the occurring erosion and potentially shore up the slope above. A second option includes the emplacement of a series of wells that help control the water content in the soil (Smith, 2016c). Presently, the City of Saint John has not made any action as it was not in the budget and a final decision has not been made on the matter but rather in the process of being decided; it is still an ongoing issue for the area.

Upon travelling to the Sheldon Point Trail and McLaren beach along the shoreline associated with Sand Cove road, erosional features were observed continuously throughout the area. The Sheldon Point Trail, which is part of the Irving Nature Park, is 3.55 km in length and includes travelling through forest and along the coast. Along most of the coastline part of the trail, the slope is very steep and there is little to no vegetation until the slope becomes more shallow (under 10 degrees); this is shown by travelling east along the trail.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 25: Travelling east along the Sheldon Point Trail in the Irving Nature Park. View of the bluff face as well as the sandy shore and amount of vegetation present.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 26: Image of a rotational slide occurring along the Sheldon POint Trail. Fine grained sand that is weakly lithified is shown as the toe of the slump; one can see parallel bedding planes that are rotated upwards and how little vegetation is present to mitigate against erosion.

All of the exposed grains are very fine grained to coarse grain sand which coupled with the steep slope, makes the sediments very susceptible to erosion. If one were to stand still and watch a slope over a 5 minute period of time, you can see the grains moving down the slope from just the force of wind and gravity. Thus, if a storm surge of heavy rainfall event were to occur along this coast, it has very little protection in place and will be subjected to large degree of erosion. Moreover, while travelling along the coast there is many rotational slides (slumps) that have occurred in the past. Many of these slumps are successional and you can see the divisions between each events by the coarser grains being located in the bottom payer of the bedding. These mass movements in the area occur in the very fine sand locations which is then overlain by a coarse sand mixture.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 27: Mass movement occurring along the Sheldon Point Trail which is displaying successive mass movement events as there is two exposed bluff faces present. The face on the lower right hand side is the oldest whereas the face in the middle of the photo is younger.

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Source: Worden, 2016

Figure 28: Slump successions along the Sheldon Point Trail; The larger grains indicate the bottom layer along the slump and any finer grained sand below it is indicative of an older slump event.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 29: Coarse sand overtop of the very fine sand layer. Shown here is an example of the very steep slope with little to no vegetation that is present along the majority of the coastal section of the Sheldon Point Trail. The toe of the slope, which is very fine grained sand, has

already been eroded away without difficulty most likely by wave action of a heavy rainfall event.

Channels from past rainfall events are still present and will likely be cut deeper in the future by similar events which in turn will cause additional erosion.

While standing back and observing the larger picture along the coast, one can see where various levels of the land that was once not part of the shore, has dropped down and has become part of the bluff. These events only increase the weight overtop of the very fine sand further increasing future rotational slides. Once the slope becomes dominantly coarse grained sand with few boulder sized grains, drainage patterns can be observed where the larger grains have created valleys within the steeply sloped sand. These valleys in turn will only become larger and increase erosion as they will be undercut when a heavy rainfall event occurs eroding the finer grained sand underneath. Nearing the end of the trail travelling east before you reach the forest, the slope becomes very steep at about 80 degrees with alternating layers of coarse and very fine grained sand, none of which are lithified. Due to the grains being unconsolidated on such a large scale and on a steep slope with the complete absence of vegetation, this past of the Sheldon Point Trail is very vulnerable to all coastal hazards and it does not take a lot of force to move the grains.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 30: Drainage patterns observed in coarse grained sand travelling east along the Sheldon Point Trail. Large Boulders that remain in place dictate the flows movement and in future

precipitation events will continue to be undercut creating a steeper slope and accelerating the erosion rate in that location.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 31: Steep slope of alternating very fine grained sand, fine grained sand, and coarse grained sand with larger pebbles present. No layers are consolidated and therefore can move very easily with any applied force. There is no vegetation present to resist these forces and talus slopes have already formed as a result. This area in particular along the Sheldon Point Trail is very susceptible to erosional processes.

Travelling to McLaren Beach, a beach location off of Sand Cove Road, many various erosional adaptation measures can be seen that have been put in place by both the city of Saint John and their Sand Cove Road residents. Along the main part of the beach where you first step foot, there is a history of armourstone being emplaced to minimize wave energy on the shore. In the cut cliff bank above, one can see the remnants of an old wharf that used to be present. It is unknown if it was removed anthropogenically or naturally by wave action. There is a series of mafic rocks used closest to the water's edge and further back, a layer of polymictic red sandstone with various grain sizes ranging in pebble to boulder that is matrix supported.

Residents along the coast are also implacing hard protection for their own measures to combat the energy associated with wave action. However, along the road many houses are seen to

have an unstable foundation with angled walls, and broken siding as a result of the underlain clay moving towards the sea. Most recently, the city has contracted Fundy Engineers to emplace a solution.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 32: The remaining pieces of a historic wharf along McLaren Beach which can be accessed by Sand Cove Road in west Saint John. It is unknown at this time how the wharf was removed. Also shown is one of the layers of armour stone used to protect the shore from erosion.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 33: Armouring techniques of a seawall (right hand side) put in place by a local resident as well as the armour stone rip rap put in place in succession. Closest to the bottom of the picture and the shore, is a mafic rock and further up near the bluff face is the polymictic conglomerate. Looking closely along the cut bank, it is evident that there is little vegetation along the steep slope and that the sides of the sea wall are continuing to erode.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 34: A series of two hard protection methods put in place by a local resident along McLaren Beach. Closest to the shore is a small layer of armour stone creating riprap and then behind that, a wooden seawall built to protect the bluff face from wave action. However, if you look just above the wooden sea wall you can see how large wave events, such as a storm surge, has undercut the bank leaving the bushes hanging overhead.

5.4 Eastern Coast of New Brunswick

The eastern part of New Brunswick has a coastline that is most sensitive in New Brunswick in regards to sea level rise and accelerated erosion rates. This is impart due to larger storm surges and a high crustal subsidence rate occurring within the area. Though the area does not experience the energy behind very large tidal forces, it has the correct location for a large amount of wind energy to be transferred into the ocean, thus making the waves impacting the coasts larger and stronger. There is no real protective land besides Prince Edward Island along the coasts of Eastern New Brunswick allowing for wave fetch to become quite large. This specification also allows for the coasts to be more strongly affected by storm surges and hurricane events as hurricanes do not lose as much energy over water as they do by travelling across land. As such, the Eastern New Brunswick coastlines are in danger of a large scale storm surge event and accelerated sea level rise than any other place in New Brunswick excluding the headlands of the Bay of Fundy. Therefore, it is to be expected that this area will

need to replace or implace more protection, or adapt more quickly than other locations in New Brunswick due to the area's geomorphology.

5.5 Lorneville Cove, West Saint John In 1977 the Lorneville region experienced a large landslide where a wedge of marine clay, silt, and minor sand overlying and intensely fractured bedrock sloped surface. The slide demonstrated a well developed arcuate surface, but differed from other rotational slides as the failure occurred about a sloping bedrock surface. The saturation of the fine grained sediment wedge after a period of heavy rainfall lead to an extreme lowering of the shear resistance between the grains and subsequent failure.

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Fill was placed above the upper portion of the failure surface and if continued erosion of the toes by wave action and tidal currents occurred coupled with a subsequent heavy rainfall event may result in the reactivation of the rotational slide (Ruitenberg and McCutcheon, 1978).

Upon travelling to Lorneville, two coves were observed; the main cove and the smaller cove of Post Office road. As such, the smaller cove had less erosion taking place but was solely because it had a gentler slope and vegetation closer to the shore. The vegetation along the top of the bluff face showed evidence of creep, which may mean that a mass movement could occur on this shallow slope in the future. Along the bridge that cuts across the estuary there is hard protection put in place with rip rap which various vegetation growing around it. However, just under the base of the bridge, the road is being undercut by waves, most likely the result of larger storms. Additionally, it you walk east along the shore, the shoreline is again undercut. To enter onto the beach, where there is a trail present, there is more efforts to adapt to erosion.

The western perimeter of the cove along Post Office Road has riprap made from concrete and asphalt. Unfortunately, neither of these have a long life span in terms of an adaptation method as they are both easily broken apart and or dissolvable.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 35: Part of the shoreline entering from Post Office Road in Lorneville showing the concrete and asphalt riprap put in place.

Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 36: Riprap near bridge in Lorneville and undercut road from large storm events

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 37: Trees on the smaller Lorneville cove off of Post Office road. The larger tree as the forefront of the picture has been undercut by erosion decreasing its stability; it will likely fall in the future if it continues to be undercut as there is no vegetation below to stabilize the slope. In the background there are small fir trees; due to their slope they are slowly sliding down due to erosion and have a slight bend at their base which is evidence of the mass movement of creep occurring.

Walking around the larger Lorneville Cove, many more erosional features, as well as to a larger extent, are observed. Many of the trees that are present closest to the shoreline are bent at their

base showing evidence of creep. A larger section of the cove has a near vertical face that is around 8 meters tall. This bluff face has no vegetation growing on top of it and is gradually being cut back by erosion. On the face there is very fine sand (silt), some of which looks new and other sections appearing older and more weathered. Therefore, one can make the assumption that there is continuous ongoing erosion occurring. As you travel towards the bridge along Lorneville road, the slope becomes shallower and more vegetation is in place but there is still evidence of creep occurring over a long period of time.

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Source: Worden, 2016 Figure 38: Evidence of creep occurring around the coast of Lorneville Cove

Source: Worden, 2016

Figure 39: Large scale of previous mass movement that has occurred along the large Lorneville Cove. The bluff face consists of unconsolidated glacial till that is easily eroded away. Very little and small vegetation present to stabilize the slope from any future erosion.

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Source: Worden, 2016

Figure 40: Steep banks of very fine and weakly lithified sand overlain by unconsolidated glacial till. Previous fallen trees are present from historical erosion events and the bank continues to be cut back. Very little vegetation is present to stabilize the erosion occurring and the vegetation above is being undercut by erosional processes. If this continues it is likely that the trees along the top of the bluff will continue to fall and the coastline will recede.

6.0 Tips for Coastal Infrastructure 6.1 Elevation

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Any infrastructure on a coastline is concerned with flooding, particularly during storm surge events. As a result of climate change, storm surge events are expected to increase, flooding more inland that before. As such, before new infrastructure is put in place on a coastline flooding assessments should be evaluated to see if it reaches the infrastructures location. A higher elevation is less likely to experience flooding as it is further away from sea level.

Consequently, contractors should take into account climate change when evaluating flooding risk assessments to be precautious.

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6.2 Drill Core Samples

Before construction of any major infrastructure is put in distance of a coastline area one should consult geological surveys to see what they would be building upon. Bedrock mapping may be sufficient to some extent but to get full value, a drill core analysis should be done from various random sampling spots in the area. The drill cores would allow contractors to easily visualize the extent and composition of the layers beneath future infrastructure. The core could evaluate how weakly or consolidated sedimentary rocks are, the degree of subsurface weathering, presence of aquitards, as well as if there is any unstable clays or silts in the area.

6.3 Slope

If infrastructure decides to push through to the construction phases, the slope should be graded in a way that allows for soil drainage. This would prevent the ground from becoming supersaturated, allowing the soil to drain easier after any kind of rainfall or thawing event. In turn, if a slope is too steep it influences the force of gravity on the particles, amplifying the chance of any mass movement occurring. Therefore, to achieve maximum protection, in regards to slope variations, of coastal infrastructure the slope should be graded in a way that is not too steep while allowing for efficient drainage of the soil into bioswales, towards the coast, storm drains, or retention ponds.

6.4 Geology to Avoid Coastal geometry, particularly in relation to the geology, can influence erosion proceedings in the area. In general massive rocks that have interlocking mineral growths, such as igneous

rocks, metamorphic gneisses, quartzites, and limestone, are all very resistant to wave action. In contrast, if the coast consists of friable sandstones, shales, and rocks which exhibit numerous bedding planes, or are weakened by excessive cleavage, joints, and faults are easily eroded away from wave action and form future embayments.

Consequently, all rocks no matter if they are igneous, metamorphic, or sedimentary will all be more susceptible to erosion if the coast is oriented perpendicular to the strike of their beds, their schistosity, and gneissosity. During erosional processes it would create a much more seriate coastline with pronounced headlands, where the more resistant stratified units occur. Moreover, rocks that exhibit a more basic composition with olivine, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, calcium rich plagioclase, and other ferro-magnesium rich minerals will preferentially erode in comparison to acidic rocks which are abundant in quartz, orthoclase, and muscovite. This is representative of Bowen’s reaction series, which determines what minerals form and chemically absolve first within boundaries.

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Moreover, beds that are dipping seaward provide a ramp in which storm waves can run up and dissipate their energy. This seaward dip in combination with existing jointing promoted block gliding of stratified layers down the inclined ‘ramp’. Consequently, if the beds are dipping horizontally or landward it encouraged the development of wave cut platforms and notches. This then allows for large blocks to fall as a result of wave erosion uncutting the supporting cliff strata present. Prominent jointing that is present in rocks that are oriented perpendicular to the bedding planes will promote the quarrying of coastal cliff faces by wave action and frost wedging. Cleavage and schistosity both promote chemical and physical breakdown of cliffs. The degree of induration and age of strata will also influence the erodibility.

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Overall, the most rapid coastal erosion occurs at the exposures that contain Quaternary and other recent deposits. Along the Fundy Coast, rotational slides or slumps are common as they are involved with unconsolidated fine textured glacial and marine drift. This failure could be promoted by wave erosion and an oversteepening of the base of the cliff, excessive pore water pressures, swelling of marine clays, breakdown of bonding in marine clays, breakdown of bonding within the clays in response to freshwater infiltration, or an increase in loading.

Therefore, these areas are to be avoided.

7.0 Options to Minimize Coastal Hazards 7.1 Soft Protection

Soft engineering approaches are generally used infrequently throughout Atlantic Canada. Many of these methods are sustainable and rely on constant maintenance to exist in this way. Options include nourishment or beaches, dredging or transported sediment to original spot before erosion, creation of wetland or a salt marsh, and increased vegetation methods can be used. It is often suggested that a combination of soft and hard methods are employed for a longer, sustainable lifespan of the engineering approach. Of such examples include: degradable

groynes reloaded with sand, sand dune trapping devices, and protection and replanting of beach grasses to reduce wave energy on shoreline (Savard et. al., 2016). Shorelines that experience lower energy have the option to create fringing marshes in the area to control coastal erosion. Not only is this a cheaper option, it acts as a buffer for wave energy lessening its effects, filters upland runoff trapping sediments and nutrients in the process and enhances the fisheries and value near the shore as it creates natural views. Moreover, if the coastal area experiences a higher energy through wave action a combination of wetland plantings with a low profile alternative such as riprap, sills, breakwaters, or groins could be used (“Erosion Control: Non-Structural Alternatives, A Shorefront Property Owner’s Guide�, n.d).

7.2 Hard Protection

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This method aims to harden the coastline with rigid, linear structures with coastal protection structures. Unfortunately, these structures often result in a rapid loss of biodiversity and contribute to coastal squeeze by trapping the existing coastal habitats and ecosystems between the rising sea and the landward anthropogenic structures. Generally, these actions are irreversible as once heavy stone or concrete are set in place, it can be difficult to remove. If somehow the infrastructures ends up being removed, it increases the vulnerability of the ecosystem until the natural state is restored.

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Generally, hard methods of protection are not developed properly which leads to the loss of beaches, a deficit in the sediment budget, and the loss of some other neighboring landowners property. In scenarios when the hard engineered approach of infrastructure cannot be removed, additional engineering approaches are warranted for a better alternative (Savard et al., 2016).

Within these scenarios, the coastal properties are connected by a longshore sediment transport and the alteration of that sediment supply, or the blockage of sediment movement along the shore causes erosion on properties further downstream. Therefore by hardening the shores, unless the shore is a depositional zone, hard engineering approaches reduces the sediment supply to the shore zone (Blair, 2010).

Moreover, if the engineering solution is to put in place hard protection in the case of erosion, one should use sacrificial materials of similar composition as the local sediment to help mimic the natural erosion process in such area (Blair, 2010).

7.3 Hybrid Protection

Hybrid protection features aspects from soft and hard protection as they are merged together to form the best possible option for the shoreline. Any combination of the engineering techniques could be combined to be suitable given the correct characteristics of the shoreline. Examples include the regrading of land with natural vegetation, beach nourishment with a breakwater installed, and gabions with natural riparian vegetation put in place.

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Source: Burton, 2008 Figure 41: A summary of different types of adaptations and the methods of differentiation between them

Source:Reeves, 2008 Figure 42 :A framework that outlines the major steps within the adaptation processes in relation to climate change

8.0 Ecosystems at Risk The impacts embarked upon marine and terrestrial ecosystems in regards to sea level rise and accelerated coastal erosion remains to be poorly quantified. However, in cases where there continues to be primarily historical sea level rise occurring, ecosystems naturally reestablish an equilibrium. As an example, within salt marshes if the rate of accretion is able to keep up with sea level rise, there would be a limited impact acted upon it. Consequently, if the sea level rise exceeds to ability of such marsh area to accrete, or where the shore is blocked by natural or artificial barriers, the loss of habitat and of valuable ecosystem services will be lost (Atkinson et al., 2016). Moreover, this is an important consideration in the response to the East Coast’s coastal systems in regards to sea level rise as it holds the potential loss of important habitat through a process known as coastal squeeze. This process is not limited solely to tidal marshes but also estuaries, eel grasses, beaches, and mudflats which also provide valuable ecosystem services along our coastlines.

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In order for coastal squeeze to not occur, the extent of the new marsh system is largely dependent on the extent of its backwards migration on the landward slope which can provide room for its movement. However, though a high backshore relief can limit the backwards migration of the new marsh system, it is the artificial barriers of roads, causeways, sea walls, dikes, and foundation fill that are all dominant causes in coastal squeeze.

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These particular ecosystems provide a diverse array of services both for native wildlife and anthropogenic needs. These ecosystems provide: the provision of spawning and nursery habitats for the Atlantic’s aquatic species including commerce fish, crucial nesting habitats for multiple types of bird species, nutrient and absorption, and sediment retention for the area (Atkinson et al., 2016). In particular, the tidal flats in the Bay of Fundy provide a critical feeding habitat for migratory birds (Hicklin, 1987; Hill et al., 2013) and as such there is a global concern about the protected losses of intertidal habitats available for these birds (Galbraith et al., 2002).

Without regards to accelerating sea level rise, it is predicted that two thirds of the coastal salt marshes within Atlantic Canada have been either drained and converted to agricultural land or diminished by industrial or urban development (Austen and Hanson, 2007).

In the recent decades, coastal areas have become more industrial and urbanized due to their associated aesthetic and demand for waterfront living. As such, there has been considerable alterations occurring along our coastlines due to present and historical settlement patterns.

Many of the coastal communities, in any area around Canada, are now characterized by significant residential and commercial waterfront developments whereas they have previously been warehouses, wharves, and traditional docks (Mercer Clarke et al., 2016). Most of the modern infrastructure in place as of right now has been designed to a standard that is based on historical climate conditions. However, no that there is evidence of increased storm frequencies, increased precipitation, as well as an increased sea level rise coupled with accelerated erosion rates, it is likely that these designs will be overtopped in the future. As such, any changes to the land cover in the coastal zone can destroy or impair any native species in those locations (Ban

and Alder, 2008; Halpern et al., 2008; Burkett and Davidson, 2012) and any hard engineering technique emplaced to protect societal assets can also lead to the loss of intertidal habitats.

Additionally, any increased amount of development within coastal zones can increase coastal squeeze and lead to a loss of valuable marshes, dunes, and beaches in the forthcoming decades (Jolicoeur and O’Carroll, 2007; Craft et al., 2009; Bernatchez et al., 2010; Feagin et al., 2010; Doody, 2013; Torio and Chmura, 2013; Cooper and Pile, 2014).

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8.1 Coastal Environments and Marine Ecosystems in the Maritime Provinces

Coasts in general are either formed from bedrock or from a mixture of unconsolidated material that can be any grain size which originally came from the erosion of bedrock or other deposits that are found along a coastline. As such, shorelines that have bedrock as the main structure component versus one with a soil or glacial till as a major component will be host to different ecosystems, due to a different environment. The most common type of shores found throughout the Atlantic Canadian provinces are bedrock shores of sea cliffs, intertidal rock tables, and gradually sloping rock shores, beaches of sand and boulder/cobble, sand and gravel bars, salt marshes, and intertidal mud and sand flats. These various coastlines have differing characteristics due to their geology and therefore the hosted biological community will reflect this differentiation and the characters of the adjacent wave masses in that area (Stewart et al., 2003).

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On an eroding bedrock coast, the sea bed is usually rocky in the subtidal zone. This is because erosional processes are continuously adding new boulders, rocks and gravels to the shoreline.

As such, this activity leads to the “rocky� character of some beaches and its associated subtidal areas both near shore and further offshore. It is in these areas that seaweed likes to grow.

Seaweed will attach to larger boulders and anchor themselves to develop seaweed beds that provide habitats for various invertebrates and crustaceans such as lobster.

Moreover, on a sandy shoreline there would be a collective mixture of grasses that can withstand salt spray. Marram grass and other similar vascular plants help to stabilize the sand dunes that are present above the high water mark on the shorelines of these sandy beaches.

Not only does the presence of these grasses help to stabilize the shoreline, but it also provides resistance to wind and encourages the trapping of sand. Over a prolonged period of time, it is these processes that enable the dunes to replenish and build. Due to the grass, the creation of nesting sites for shore birds (birds that migrate back in the spring) have a home (Stewart et al., 2003).

Furthermore, inlets and other sheltered environments (lee side of islands, headlands and river mouths) allow for the creation of some more unique environments for species to inhabit. Due to these areas being more sheltered rather than on the open coast, constantly receiving wave action, the type of biological communities that exist between the two are very different. As such, species that live floating or swimming throughout bodies of waters could be found in inlets. As well, due to the sheltered nature of this environment, adult species may also iter inlets during

their migration along the coast for shelter. These species would include but are not limited to the migration of lobster and crab. These crustaceans would lay their eggs and therefore, juveniles would be concentrated in that area and mature there because of the reduced wave action, tidal energy, and current energy that they would be otherwise subjected to and an increased food availability. Consequently, inlets often have a large resident population of shellfish such as mussels, clams, scallops, crabs, and lobster (Stewart et al., 2003).

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On the bottom shores of inlets, there are seaweed communities that thrive on its rocky bottom.

However, inlets and estuaries alike have a lower diversity of seaweed, and a lower abundance than that of the rocky communities found along the open coastline. This is majorly due to the reduced wave activity and a lower nutrient availability for the seaweed population. Rockweeds are usually present in subtidal and intertidal zones and can coexist with multiple other animals which include but are not limited to: barnacles, mussels, amphipods, crustacea, crabs, birds, sponges, and periwinkles. In addition to these common cohabiters, many fish species could also be present seasonally in these areas due to the availability of shelters conditions which provide good nursery areas of the juvenile stages of many fish (Stewart et al., 2003).

In contrast, the soft bottoms that are present in the nearshore areas of the coastline have various vertebrate fisheries, in particular flat fish and other ground dwelling fish. This shallow sandy and muddy environment near inlets and other sheltered areas can sometimes provide suitable habitats for shellfish such as oysters. Additionally, these sheltered, shallow, muddy zones typically have beds of eelgrass in the intertidal zone. In general, extensive salt marshes fringe on these sheltered coastlines in many areas around the Maritimes. These salt marshes are home to one of the most productive coastal environments and at the same time, are the most threatened but past and future human development (Stewart et al., 2003).

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8.2 Species at Risk in Saint John

While considering species that have been at risk initially and that may be largely affected by any imposed infrastructure in the future along the coastlines of Saint John, it can be assumed that these same species would be in danger with any destruction of their habitats and feeding grounds. The destruction of these areas may be the result of erosion, increased storm surges, climate change alterations, or an increased frequency of wave action and hence forth, their energy being transferred onto the shore. After reviewing past Environmental Impact Assessments for proposed infrastructure around Saint John, NB a number of species can be identified as at risk with correlation to the coastline. Below are the species of particular concern in the Saint John area, and can be assumed also at risk among other particular areas along the Bay of Fundy.

8.2.1 Birds (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Bufflehead (Winter), ​Bucephala albeola ● Greater Scaup (Winter), ​Aythya marila ● Ring-billed Gull (Winter, Spring), ​Larus delawarensis

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Red Breasted Merganser (Winter), ​Mergus serrator Surf Scoter (Winter, Spring), ​Melanitta perspicillata American Wigeon (Spring),​ Anas Americana Black Scoter (Spring), ​Melanitta nigra Bufflehead (Spring), ​Bucephala albeola Gadwall (Spring), ​Anas strepera Greater Scaup (Spring),​ Aythya marila Northern Pintail (Spring), ​Anas acuta Bald Eagle, ​Haliaeetus leucocephalus Canada Warbler, ​Wilsonia canadensis Common Nighthawk, ​Chordeiles minor Least Bittern, ​Lxobrychus exilis Eastern Wip-Poor-Will, ​Caprimulgus vociferus Peregine Falcon, ​Falco peregrinus Piping Plover, ​Charadrius melodus melodus Red Knot, ​Calidris canutus rufa

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8.2.2 Herptiles (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Wood Turtle, ​Glyptemys insculpta

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8.2.3 Terrestrial Mammals (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Little Brown Myotis, ​Myotis lucifugus

8.2.4 Aquatic Mammals (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Atlantic White-sided Dolphin, ​Lagenorhynchus acutus ● Long Finned Pilot Whale, ​Globicephala melas ● ●

North Atlantic Right Whale, ​Eubalaena glacialis Harbour Porpoise, ​Phocoena phocoena

8.2.5 Terrestrial and Aquatic Insects (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Monarch Butterfly, ​Danaus plexippus 8.2.6 Fish (Winchester and Lane, 2015) ● Atlantic Salmon (Outer Bay of Fundy Population), ​Salmo Salar ● Red Breast Sunfish (Lower Saint John River, Kennebecasis River), ​Lepomis auritus ● Short Nose Sturgeon (Lower Saint John River), ​Acipenser brevirostrum ● Striped Bass (Lower Saint John River), ​Morone saxatilis ● Atlantic Cod, ​Gadus morhua ● Atlantic Wolffish, ​Anarhichas lupus

9.0 Considerations In the end if you think that your community is prone to coastal hazards and would like to input an adaptation measure for your area, there are multiple considerations to be made. You should be asking yourself and others around you certain questions that will allow you to make the best possible choice for each location's specific problems and each area would have a different need. It is only then after consultations with various engineers, economists, locals, historians, climate records, hydrologists, and geoscientists can a decision be made about the best way to go about adaptation methods. These questions should include, but are not limited to, are listed below. ● ●

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What province is your community in? Certain provinces have particular restrictions on engineering techniques that could be very ill advised or prohibited.

What kind of material is the coastal environment comprised of? Different materials need to be addressed in different ways due to a changing characteristics and some options may not be recommended for that particular location.

What kind of community are you looking on improving? Is it a rural, First Nation, city, or town? Each of these locations have different things that they are in charge of as well as different laws and bylaws that can influence people's decisions and procedures.

Is flooding occurring with the erosion?

Are there naturally occurring structures or engineered structures already put in place to protect the shoreline? These structures may actually be influencing the erosion more than they need to be.

If there is an engineered structure, what is it and is it failing to provide its intended purpose? There is a wide range of engineering options, all of which provide a different service and can change the coastal dynamic in different ways.

Are these engineered structures experiencing damage or failing because of these negative impacts? Particular structures may only have a certain lifespan associated with them and damages can occur spontaneously.

How urgent is your community's need for protection?

Can you move infrastructure that is at risk? Political and financial constraints may influence a community's ability to relocate particular infrastructure.

How long does the community have before it threatens public safety as a result of erosion?

Does the community have a land use planning authority? If so, what land use plans are put in place, and do they address coastal issues? These plans could include a variety of combinations such as: statutory community plans, regional plans, emergency preparedness and/ or management plans, integrated community sustainability plans, climate change action and/or adaptation plans, coastal/ shoreline management plans, strategic land acquisition, and wetland policy/ plans.

Are there planning tools that are utilized in your community and do they address coastal issues? These planning tools may include any combination of: land use bylaws and zoning, subdivision bylaws or regulations, wetland and/ or watercourse regulations,

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setbacks, tax or development incentives, development agreements, variances, waivers, and urban design standards.

What kind of erosion is occurring in your community? Would is naturally recover on its own over time? Is it ongoing? Was it the result of a single event such as a storm surge?

What is actually being eroded along the shoreline? Is it a natural feature, a built or engineered structure, or an engineered protective structure?

How is the erosion happening? Is it a slope failure, rainfall, improper drainage, undercutting, or narrowing or lowering of natural features? If it is engineered, where is it occurring (front, back, sides)?

What is the slope of the foreshore?

What is the width of the foreshore? Does it even have one?

What is the dominate material on the foreshore? It can be vegetation, exposed bedrock or boulders, sand, gravel or cobbles, or mud.

Is the location in the community that is being eroded exposed, protected, or somewhat protected?

Who holds the authority to make land use planning decisions about this site? Is it the government, private landowners, or multiple layers of decision makers?

Is there a supply of sediment available if you need it? Some engineering techniques, such as beach nourishment, require similar infill for the foreshore if eroded away.

What is the dominate coastal environment that is at this site? It could be a saltmarsh, intertidal flat (either mud or sand), a sandy beach, a barrier, dunes, gravel and or cobble, a bank, a bluff, a rock cliff, exposed bedrock or boulders, dykelands, or a developed waterfront. All of these environments would have different engineering techniques that would be inappropriate or inefficient to put in place in each area.

How many other sites in your community are experiencing issues in relation to flooding and or erosional processes?

Are you aware that climate change can influence flooding and or erosional impacts at each specific site in a negative manner while creating future problems for your community that are not currently experiencing any damage?

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