BML111 SEASONALITY by Andrew Clegg

BML111: Tourism, Events & Des6na6ons: Impacts & Sustainability

Seasonality

Aims §  To deﬁne seasonality, with reference to spa5al and scale

components

§  To iden5fy the ‘ins5tu5onal’ and ‘natural’ factors

inﬂuencing seasonality

§  To consider the issues and implica5ons of seasonality §  To highlight the ways in which seasonality can be

addressed by businesses and des5na5on environments

Seasonality Ac6vity 1: Iden%fy: •  How do you deﬁne and measure seasonality?

Seasonality Deﬁni6on:

‘temporal imbalance in the phenomena of tourism, which may

be expressed in terms of dimensions of such elements as numbers of visitors, expenditure of visitors, traﬃc on highways and other forms of transporta%on, employment and admissions to a?rac%ons’ [Butler 1994, cited in Baum and Lundtorp, 2001, p. 23]

Seasonality The Scale and Spa%al Components of Seasonality §  Monthly / Weekly / Daily -‐ important considera%ons in

rela%on to the nature of the des%na%on environment/business §  Peaks of seasonality -‐ one peak or two peak §  One peak -‐ seasonal pa?ern of demand in genera%ng countries

matches the seasonal a?rac%veness of a des%na%on (e.g. Mediterranean regions) §  Two peaks -‐ two seasons of a?rac%veness within a des%na%on

region (e.g. mountain region -‐ summer tourists and winter sports enthusiasts)

Seasonality Â ! ! ! !

! !

Revenue&Passenger&Miles&(RPMs)&2012 December November October September August July June May April March February January 67,000,000

67,500,000

68,000,000

68,500,000

69,000,000

69,500,000

70,000,000

70,500,000

Value!(Thousands)

! ! !

Christina Hefferan

Seasonality Â Number of visits to the South East in the year of 2014 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Jan - March

April - June

July - Sept

Oct - Dec

Lauren Andrews

Seasonality Â NumberAofAVistorsAtoASpainAbetweenAJuneA2014AandASeptemberA2015 18,000,000

16,000,000

14,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0 Jun+14

Jul+14

Aug+14

Sep+14

Oct+14

Nov+14

Dec+14

Jan+15

Feb+15

Mar+15

Apr+15

May+15

Jun+15

Jul+15

Aug+15

Sep+15

Alfonsa Livoti

Seasonality Â

Jean Nicole Ridor

Seasonality Â VISITS TO SAFARI PARKS, ZOOS, AQUARIUMS, AVIARIES & FARMS COMPARED TO VISITS TO SCOTLAND

Source: Martinolli (2010) Visit Scotland. Available att: http://www.visitscotland.org/pdf/visitorattraction-monitor2009.pdf

Sarah Stribley

Seasonality Â Visits to Greece % 2012-2013

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Charlotte Shields

Seasonality Â Number'of'visitors'to'the'UK'through'different'seasons'2014 12,000,000.00

35.00%

30.00%

10,000,000.00

25.00% 8,000,000.00 20.00% 6,000,000.00 15.00% 4,000,000.00 10.00%

2,000,000.00

5.00%

0.00

0.00% January2 March

April2June

NumberCOfCVisitors

July2September

October2December

PercentageC OfCVisitsC

Markell Charles Bailey

Seasonality Â Visits to Bath, 2014 350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 January

Febraury

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Novemebr

December

Georgia Saunders

Seasonality Â

16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Kana Nunozaki

Seasonality SHARE OF PROFESSIONAL AND PERSONAL TRIPS OF EU RESIDENTS PER MONTH OF DEPARTURE, 2013. 100%

80%

60%

84%

85%

86%

88%

89%

87% 94%

87%

13%

Sep

Oct

83% 91%

95%

40%

20%

16%

15%

14%

12%

11%

13% 6%

Jul

Aug

0% Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Professional Trips

17% 9% Nov

Dec

Personal Trips

Xanthe Hawker

Seasonality Average Expenditure on Holiday Trips Per Family in the UK 2015 £2,377

£1,978

£1,515 £1,415 £1,242 £1,130 £1,041 £828 £589 £489

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Information collected from, Visit England, 2015. https://www.visitengland.com/biz/resources/insights-and-statistics/market-size-andvalue/domestic-overnight-tourism-gbts/great-britain-tourism-survey-2015/gbts-2015-monthly-results [Accessed: 03/02/2016]

Lois Pretty

Seasonality Â 1503379

2015 Day Visitors to GB & England December November Octoboer September

August July June May April March February January 0

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Visitors (Million)

Source: Visit England

Laura King

Seasonality Â Gemma Williams - 1500264

The Number of Overnight Stays in Hotel Accomodation in Switzerland in 2013 and 2014. Representing Seasonality Within the country. 4,500,000

4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0 January

Feburary

March

April

May

June 2013

July

August

September

October

November

December

2014

Gemma Williams

Seasonality Â Hotel Occupancy Rates in Europe 2015 (%) 90 80.7 78.1

77.3

77.1

76.1

74.1 69.5

68.1

66.5

62.6 59.1

60 54.4 50

0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Hotel Occupancy Rates in Europe 2015 (%)

Emmeline Petersen

Seasonality Â Room Occupancy

Amount of Rooms

0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Charlotte Hayward

Seasonality Â

Claire Farmer

Seasonality Â Visitors to Bournemouth in 2014 70

Number of Visitors (000) 30

0 January - March

April - June

July - September

October - December

Georgia Francis

Seasonality Â

Seasonality Â Percentage of UK Attractions Open Each Month in 2001 - By Admission Type (%) 120

80 All Attractions Free Paid

60 40 20

ov N

O ct

Au Month

gu s

ly Ju

Ju ne

M ay

ril Ap

ch M ar

b Fe

Percentage (%)

100

ril '0 M 1 ay Ju '01 ne '0 Ju 1 ly' Au 01 g' Se 01 pt '0 O 1 ct '0 N 1 ov ' D 01 ec '0 Ja 1 n' 0 Fe 2 M b'0 ar 2 ch ' Ap 02 ril '0 M 2 ay Ju '02 ne '0 Ju 2 ly' 0 Au 2 g Se ' 02 pt '0 O 2 ct '0 N 2 ov ' D 02 ec '0 2

Percentage Unemployed (%)

Seasonality Â Unemployment Rates in Torbay

3 Torbay

Month

Seasonality Ac6vity 2: Iden%fy: •  What factors cause seasonality?

Causes of Seasonality Natural Factors   Regular varia%on in clima%c condi%ons -‐ temperature, rainfall,

snowfall and daylight

  Natural seasonal varia%on increases according to the distance

from the equator

  Therefore acute impacts of seasonality are found in more

peripheral des%na%ons

  Extremes of temperature, monsoon rainfall or humidity will

also reduce demand at certain %mes of the year in tropical regions (Caribbean, Indian sub-‐con%nent)

  Temperature / rainfall -‐ also inﬂuence of health considera%ons

e.g. malaria

Inﬂuences on PaHerns of Seasonality

[Butler, in Baum and Lundtorp, 2001, p. 9]

Inﬂuences on PaHerns of Seasonality

Seasonality Ac6vity 3: Iden%fy: •  What are the implica5ons of seasonality?

The Issues and Implica6ons of Seasonality Links to economic, social and environmental issues:   High number of seasonal jobs   Seasonality inﬂuences prices -‐ high levels in the main season

and discount rates in the oﬀ season   Problems with staﬀ reten%on, and maintaining service and

product quality in the absence of permanent, long-‐term employees   Emphasis on part-‐%me work inﬂuences the quality / calibre of

applicant and the need for training   High levels of oﬀ-‐season unemployment

The Issues and Implica6ons of Seasonality Links to economic, social and environmental issues:   Under-‐use of the capacity of local infrastructure and operator

facili%es, which are o_en inﬂexible and do not have alterna%ve uses   Problems of a?rac%ng inward investment into tourism   Overbooking of speciﬁc facili%es   Loss of trade in the peak season because establishments are

unable to meet highly concentrated demand   An overhea%ng of the market during the peak season that

creates high prices for facili%es

The Issues and Implica6ons of Seasonality Links to economic, social and environmental issues:   Problems in maintaining the supply chain on the basis of a

short opera%ng season   Reluctance of intermediaries to maintain commitment to and

invest in highly seasonal opera%ons   Increased tensions between the tourism industry and the host

community   Impacts on local services (e.g. buses)   Poor-‐image during the oﬀ season

The Issues and Implica6ons of Seasonality Links to economic, social and environmental issues:   Peak season places great pressure on the des%na%on

environment, and underpins the necessity for eﬀec%ve management strategies   Peak conges%on creates a concentra%on of the no%onal

carrying capacity of a des%na%on resul%ng in the need for visitor management -‐ although the same number of visitors could be comfortably accommodated throughout the year

The Issues and Implica6ons of Seasonality

Seasonality Ac6vity 4: Iden%fy: •  What are the beneﬁts of seasonality?

The Beneﬁts of Seasonality Key considera6ons:   ‘Down %me’ -‐ allows %me for essen%al maintenance that

cannot be undertaken during the height of the season   Essen%al roadworks / infrastructural developments   Product development / upgrading / decora%on   Maintenance work that can support construc%on jobs and

specialist trades   Allows the physical environment %me to recover and

recuperate   ‘Down %me’ for the host community

The Benefits of Seasonality Key considera6ons:   Off season provides opportuni%es to focus on staff training and

development improving professionalism and quality   Business planning and product development -‐ enhancing

compe%%ve   Gives operators a chance to go on holiday themselves -‐

par%cularly SMEs

Seasonality Ac6vity 5: Iden%fy: •  How do des5na5ons address seasonality?

Addressing Seasonality Product Development

Seasonality Marke6ng and Branding

Market Diversiﬁca6on

Addressing Seasonality Product Development   Increasing the level of wet weather facili5es to provide a year

round oﬀering   Development of conference and business tourism infrastructure

Addressing Seasonality

Addressing Seasonality Product Development   Increasing the level of wet weather facili5es to provide a year

round oﬀering

  Development of conference and business tourism infrastructure   Development of school materials and facili5es for the

educa5onal sector

Addressing Seasonality

Addressing Seasonality Product Development   Increasing the level of wet weather facili5es to provide a year

round oﬀering

  Development of conference and business tourism infrastructure   Development of school materials and facili5es for the

educa5onal sector

  Developing a programme of oﬀ-‐season events and fes5vals

Addressing Seasonality

Addressing Seasonality Product Development:   Capitalise on the natural elements of seasonality / local

dis5nc5veness

  South Downs -‐ chalk aquifers oﬀer all year round walking

opportuni5es

Addressing Seasonality

http://www.rspb.org.uk/reserves/guide/h/hamwall/

Addressing Seasonality

Addressing Seasonality Product Development:   Capitalise on the natural elements of seasonality / local

dis5nc5veness

  South Downs -‐ chalk aquifers oﬀer all year round walking

opportuni5es

  Lambing

Addressing Seasonality

Extending the Season Market Diversiﬁca6on:   ALract a range of diﬀerent markets with complimentary

paLerns of visits

  Development of conference and business tourism infrastructure

Extending the Season Marke6ng and Promo6on:   Marke5ng local dis5nc5veness -‐ ‘the year round des5na5on’   Changing the percep5on of the des5na5on   Development of low season oﬀers and special oﬀers   Marke5ng around seasonal elements e.g. Easter and Christmas

Seasonality Ac6vity 5: Iden%fy: •  What are the key challenges when tackling seasonality?

Tackling Seasonality: Key Challenges Key Issues:   Clear communica5on between the diﬀerent sectors and

stakeholders

  Clearly deﬁned strategic management framework   Understanding of the des5na5on environment / business

proﬁle

  Research and forecas5ng tools   Holis5c approaches   Impact of global warming?

Learning Outcomes By the end of this session, you should be able to:   Deﬁne seasonality, with reference to spa5al and scale

components

  Iden5fy the ‘ins5tu5onal’ and ‘natural’ factors inﬂuencing

seasonality

  Discuss the issues and implica5ons of seasonality   Evaluate the ways in which seasonality can be addressed by

businesses and des5na5on environments