Diagnostic Market Analysis Project: Bosque Se単orial 59 Single Family Detached Units PR 9936 - Ave. Las Americas Ponce, Puerto Rico Developer: Capri S.E. (Mu単oz Holdings) PO Box 363148 San Juan, PR 00936-3148 On the Request of: Mr. Paul Makowski Executive Vice President Chief Risk Officer Doral Financial Corporation P.O. Box 70308 San Juan, Puerto Rico 00936-8308 Prepared by: Adam Greenfader AXYON, INC. PMB 165 - 1750 Loiza Street - 1st Floor San Juan, Puerto Rico 00911 (787)728-6715 (787) 667-8084 Date of report: December 18, 2008 Total Pages: 145
Key Slides
Doral Financial Corporation Bosque Se単orial
Market Research Sources This key slide presentation is derived from the December 18, 2008, Diagnostic Market Analysis and compiled from the below noted sources: 1. Diagnostic Site Analysis – Bosque Señorial and Ponce Market Area 2. Researching past sales - Luis Abreu Sales Data Report (December 2008) 3. Interviews with local and national Real Estate experts 4. Census 2000 & 2004 data 5. Planning Board JPU & ARPE (Puerto Rico) 6. AXYON sales data dated from 2001-2008 7. Demand for Housing in Puerto Rico 2007-2012, Estudios Técnicos, Inc. 8. Assorted Articles Caribbean Business 2004-2008 9. Architectural plans and drawings from development team 10. Sales materials from comparable projects 11. Data from The Center For The New Economy 12. Homebuyer Interviews with Bosque Señorial Residents – December 2008 13. Classified Online and other real estate web sites 14. 20 Minute drill sales scripts and training
The Project
Key Facts Project: Developer: Financial Institution: Location: Site: Project: Unit : Avg. Lot Size: House: Sales Start: Total Closings: Total: Absorption Rate: Average Closing: Price Per S.F. :
Bosque Señorial Muñoz Holdings ( Capri S.E.) Doral Financial Corporation Municipality of Ponce (Ave. Las Americas). 23.8 Cds. 59 Single Family Units –Detached 3,090 S.F. 644 M2 4 Beds / 2.5 Baths & 2 Car Garage 05 / 2007 (19 months) 10 units (17% as of December 18, 2008) $3,617,776 .50 units per month $361,207 $117
Bosque Se単orial Closing Record Unit
M2
Price
Price/M2
Price / S.F.
1 2 4 8 25 * 43 49 50 56 59
315 622 523 436 901 551 567 518 585 648
$373,666 $360,208 $353,265 $366,911 $379,754 $355,183 $356,303 $352,937 $357,563 $361,986
$1,186 $579 $675 $681 $421 $645 $628 $681 $611 $559
$121 $117 $114 $114 $123 $115 $115 $114 $116 $117
Avg.
581
$361,207
$665
$117
Closing Date November 07 August 07 July 07 November 08 August 08 February 08 September 07 June 08 March 14, 08
* Not arm length transaction. Sales by development group. Eliminated from average calculation.
SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths +
Site •Access to Highway •Proximity to Major Urban Center •Large (Usable) Lots •Mature Trees •Project Maintenance •Customer Service •Development Team Home •Design and Dimensions •Expandable Garage •Large (Efficient) Master Bedroom •½ Bath Location •Kitchen lay-out •Covered Terraces •Laundry Room Location •Intelli-Home System
Weaknesses Site •Recreational Facilities (Lighting, Fencing, Landscaping) •Project Signage
Home •Kitchen Door •Formica Bathroom Counter Tops
Site Strengths
House Strengths
Project Weakness
SWOT ANALYSIS • • • • • • • •
Threats U.S. economic crisis Puerto Rico’s anemic growth -GNP Significant living cost increases of 3.82% (Revised CPI 2007) New sale tax 7% -13.2% drop homes sales (2006-08) 27,148 unsold home inventory (E.T.) Tight credit – no more 100%. Notary Law increases financing costs
Bosque Señorial • Noise pollution from Road 500 • Perceived Air Pollution (Cemex) • Adjacent Auto Mechanic
Opportunities +
• 756 Billion Federal Stimulus Package Approved • New governments • Interest rates on 30 year conventional mortgages remain low (6.75%) • New Ponce infrastructure
Project Threats
The Competition
New Home Project Graph Net Price Ponce Market Area $500,000
$350,000
$50,000 $0
Net Price
Bosque Se単orial
Mansiones Lago
$100,000
Hacienda Juliana
$150,000
Paseo Reyes
$200,000
Estancias Golf
$250,000
Terra Se単orial
$300,000
Puerto Galexda
$400,000
Estancias Monte
$450,000
NEW HOME PROJECT REPORT Single Family Homes Ponce Market Area Project
Net Price
Discount
Total SF
Price / Basic Rm Bath SF M2
Paseo de Reyes
$222,900
2%
2,465
$90
510
4
2.5
199
Estancias del Golf
$245,000
2%
2,400
$102
325
3
3.5
51
Hacienda Juliana
$258,000
2%
2,400
$108
400
4
2.5
81
Terra Se単orial
$295,000
8%
2,500
$118
400
4
2.5
96
Mansion del Lago
$329,900
6%
2,295
$144
450
4
2.5
151
Bosque Se単orial
$346,000
4%
3,090
$112
644
4
2.5
59
Man. Puerto Galexda
$440,000
4%
3,400
$129
1,400
4
2.5
46
Estancias del Monte
$470,000
5%
2,700
$174
450
4
2.5
67
Average
$325,850
4%
2,656
$122
572
4
2.5
94
Units
Paseo Reyes Offers an inferior product and location. The price of the units, however, is very competitive. In a slow economy, Paseo de Reyes should be a challenging competitor because of its pricing.
Estancias del Golf Offers an attractive product in a slightly better location. The price of the unit is very affordable.
Hacienda Juliana Offers the residential consumer an inferior location and product. The price of the units is very competitive.
Terra Señorial Offers the upscale residential consumer an attractive product in a comparable or better location. The price of the units is competitive. Terra Señorial is Bosque Señorial’s principal competitors.
Mansión del Lago Offers an attractive product in a better location. The price of the units is competitive. Mansión del Lago is amongst Bosque Señorial’s principal competitors.
Mansiones Puerto Galexda Offers a very attractive product in a better location. The price of the unit is more expensive but reasonable for the product offering. Mansiones Puerto Galexda will be competition with Bosque Señorial.
Estancias del Monte Offers an attractive product in a better location. The price of the unit is extremely expensive. It appears that the project will need to make a significant price adjustments in order to be competitive.
Competition Conclusion Location Bosque Señorial’s location is generally inferior to the competition, particularly Terra Señorial, Mansión del Lago, Mansiones Puerto Galexda, Estancias del Monte. It is superior to Paseo Reyes and Hacienda Juliana. Home The competition’s homes range in size from 2,295 S.F. to 3,400 S.F. The average size of the homes is 2,656 S.F. Bosque Señorial is amongst the largest with 3,090 S.F. and superior. Finishings The finishings of the homes are equivalent. Bosque Señorial has no clear advantage or disadvantage. Lot The lots range from 400 M2 to 1,400 M2. The average lot size is 572 M2. The Bosque Señorial lot is larger than the competition (644 M2) and thus superior. Facilities The competition’s facilities typically include a gazebo, pool (with showers), and children’s play area. Bosque Señorial’s recreational facilities do not include a pool. Bosque Señorial’s recreational facilities are inferior.
Past Pricing & Future Demand
Supply & Absorption Table Ponce Market Area * Total Units
Closed
Available Supply
Available Pct.
Sales Start
Absorption Rate (1)
1 Paseo de Reyes
199
75
124
62%
6/1/07
4.17
2 Estancias del Golf
51
39
12
23%
2/1/06
1.15
3 Hacienda Juliana
81
0
81
100%
Const.
N/A
4 5 6 7
96 151 59 46
43 6 10 18
53 145 49 28
55% 96% 83% 60%
3/1/06 6/1/08 6/1/07 12/1/07
1.30 1.00 0.50 1.50
67 750
0 191
67 559
100% 75%
Constr.
N/A 1.60
Project
Terra Se単orial Mansion del Lago Bosque Se単orial Man. Puerto Galexda 8 Estancias del Monte Total
* The units accounted in the supply chain are only those units available as of the 4th quarter of 2008. (1) Data Source Estudios Tecnicos.
Past Sales Ponce Market Area $325,000 $320,000 $315,000 $310,000 $305,000
Appraisal
$300,000 $295,000 $290,000
Sales Price
$285,000 $280,000 $275,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The past sales include both new and previously owned homes in the Ponce Market Area. The average price of a 4 bedroom and 2.5 bath home in 2003 was $297,670. In 2007, the price of the same home was $295,316. The prices of homes have decreased remained virtually flat and the trend looks downward. Source: Luis Abreu Sales Reports 2003-2008.
Demand Table * Total Demand
5 years
Per Year
Total Demand (Non-Subsidy)
49,887 Units
9,977 Units
Ponce Demand (11.8%)
5,886 Units
1,177 Units
Single Family Demand (71%)
4,175 Units
835 Units
584 Units
116 Units
$260,000 or more (14%)
* Demand for Housing in Puerto Rico 2007-2012, Estudios TĂŠcnicos, Inc.
Projected Absorption Rates Total Bosque Se単orial Inventory
49
Total Supply
559
New Units
32
Capture Rate *
9.9%
Total Units Sold Per Year **
11.4 (.95 per month)
Total Project Sell Out
4.2 Years (50 months)
* Capture rate calculation: 59 units of the proposed project / 559 assumed total available units + 32 new units. ** Based on the market demand of 116 units per year for the $260,000 and over market.
Pricing Strategy Pricing Motivate individuals to close homes as quickly as possible. The most affordable homes should be those adjacent to Road 500. The average market price is $325,850. Bosque Señorial’s pricing reveals a higher net price of $346,000 (6.2% higher). Notwithstanding the larger house and lot, a price adjustment value should be considered because of its weaker location and to compensate for the perceived safety risk, neighborhood and industrial environment (Cemex plant). Base price should be adjusted to $305,000 or $99 per square foot. This would provide a total project sell out of $15,706,190. Note: Hide price discounts through special closing bonuses, incentives, or aggressive interest rate deductions. The competition offers cash incentives, interest rate reductions, and “furniture packages.” The furniture packages include air conditioning units, garage doors, landscaping, etc…
Sensitivity Analysis Sales Price
$365,0000
$305,000
Down payment
$36,500
10%
$30,500
10%
Mortgage
$328,500
90%
$274,500
90%
Closing Costs
$11,497
3.5%
$9,607
3.5%
Total Investment (Cash)
$47,997
$40,107
Monthly Payment Interest
6.5%
Rate
6.5%
Rate
30
Years
30
Years
Payment & Principal
$2,076
Mthly
$1,735
Mthly
Hazard Insurance *
$70
Mthly
$70
Mthly
Taxes *
$50
Mthly
$50
Mthly
Maintenance **
$140
Mthly
$140
Mthly
$2,346
Mthly
$1,995
Mthly
$7,038
Mthly
$5,985
Mthly
$84,456
Yearly
$71,820
Yearly
Term
Total Payment Qualification Income To Qualify
Note: With a $60,000 price adjustment, the monthly payment falls below the $2,000 psychological barrier.
Sales and Marketing
Resident Questionnaire In December 2008, 80% of the residents of Bosque Señorial were interviewed via a formal questionnaire. Most of the home buyers were happy with their decision to buy at B.S and would recommend the project to friends. In terms of the home, the residents were content with the design but generally disappointed with the finishings (40% “Met with my expectations”, 60% “Did not meet with my expectations.” ) Most of the residents mentioned that the cement plant was the project’s least attractive attribute. It seems that the cement plant represents both a pollution (noise and air) issue and perceived security threat. 45% moved to Bosque Señorial because of its location 3 out of 4 searched outside of Ponce for new home communities 85% were motivated to buy because of the house design The majority of residents claim that the recreational facilities were a “very important or important part” of their home purchase decision 100% of the residents were either “satisfied “ or ”very satisfied” with the project maintenance
Marketing Strategy Unique Selling Proposition A very accessible location, well designed home , and large home lots. Product Hot Buttons Large master closet, expandable garage, granite kitchen, open floor plan, and flat lots . Brand Analysis The name of the project is Bosque Señorial (Majestic Forest). The brand can build off the forest theme, especially if more trees are planted on the streets and recreational facilities. Tag Line The tag line reads “Vive a todo gusto”, which roughly means to live life to its fullest. This tag line is not consistent with the unique selling proposition. Language The name of the project is in Spanish (the principal language for this market segment). It is also consistent with the competition.
Product Merchandizing Signs – Add permanent signs , recreational facility, project entrance, and model house. Technology – Turn on T.V. with commercial loop of project’s highlights, and activate the Intelli-home system with security cameras.
Kitchen – remove sales materials from counters and cabinets. Hide sales inventory. Windows (Light) – Open all curtains. Use plastic screens to maintain a/c. Cover picture window at stairs with laminated frosted screen for privacy.
Backyard – landscape, add deck and pool. Add swing to mature tree and lounge chairs – get clients to enjoy the yards. Balcony and terrace – add chairs and tables. Fencing – Raise wall (PVC) on Road 500, secure drains, and cover AEE junction boxes. Club House – Add furniture or gym equipment.
Direct Marketing Public Relations Dedicate a substantial amount of resources to a comprehensive public relations plan to mitigate the negative impact of the Cemex plant. Have sales team participate in multiple direct marketing activities ( in-house and in local community) throughout the year.
Sales Team There are multiple brokers from the same company selling the project. The brokers are from Ponce and the sales office is open everyday from 10:00 A.M. - 7:00 P.M. • • • •
Train sales team to handle key objections regarding Cemex plant Develop a standard sales script Remove inventory from client’s line of sight Pay all brokers if a sale is made regardless of who registers the client
Marketing Materials Marketing Materials - The marketing materials are not with consistent the upscale image that the project warrants. A. Brochure The brochure has not been updated since the project’s inception and still has the model drawings instead of the actual house facades. B. Aluminum Signs The aluminum signs on the project’s exterior are worn out and do not convey the quality of life images that are normally associated with a high end development. C. Model House Signs There are no model house signs that have the project logo and name, including smart tags on key amenities such as the Intelli-home system, and N.I.C. on appliances(not included) signs. Include large directional and points of interest maps. D. Newspaper Ad The newspaper advertising is attractive and the colors are bright and clear (as seen in original). While attractive, the ad does not clearly convey a unique selling proposition. Is it the location, home size, or financing being emphasized?