4 hidden jewels for long term wealth creation

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The Ramco Cements

About

The Ramco Cements (TRCL) is one of the top three cement producers in South India with total nameplate capacity of 12.5mtpa (0.95mtpa in West Bengal and the balance in the South). It also has operational wind farm capacity of 159MW and 157MW of CPP capacity. The company has 5 integrated cement plants 3 in Tamil Nadu, one in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

Investment Argument

The Ramco Cements Limited is among the lowest cost cement producers in the south along with the most premium brands. Strong brand and higher trade segment mix aids superior pricing in core markets. De-leveraging has already started with INR500 Cr reduction in net debt over FY16 (~INR2200 Cr). With no immediate capex plan. The demand is expected to be robust in coming years on account of enhanced focus of state governments on infra spending, stabilization of newly formed states, new capital development in Amaravati and revival in small scale housing demand sponsored under various state Government schemes.

Risk

Demand in the region continued to remain sluggish due to subdued demand across sectors and delay in recovery expected on account of the formation of new states. The delay in Government plan of the smart city and housing for all will Impact the cement demand in the country. The increase in interest rate by central Government will restrict the borrowings by the infrastructural sector thus resulting in the low demand and pricing for the cement in the country.

Financials

FY

CMP

Sales

OPM(%)

EPS

PE

BVPS

PBV

EV/Sales

ROE(%)

2016 03

536.45

3595.73

24.38

23

23.32

129

4.15

4

18.17

2015 03

536.45

3604.33

15.13

10

53.6

110.

4.87

4.15

9.37


Apollo Hospitals

About

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise is one of India’s first corporate hospital chain listed players in the healthcare space. It earns revenue from various segments such as 1) Hospitals (through Joint Venture, Subsidiaries and Associates) 2) Standalone Pharmacies 3) ApolloMunich Health Insurance 4) Apollo Health & Lifestyle. Apollo owns 64 hospitals with a total bed capacity of 8985.

Investment Argument

Apollo hospitals has acquired 51% stake in a Guwahati-based hospital for ~Rs. 57 crore and expand its capacity to 220 beds thus trying to strengthen its presence in Northeast India. The company continues to earn more than 55% of its revenues from its healthcare services business. Given the planned Capex of ~Rs. 1,660 crore of which Rs 453 crore has already been deployed, it plans to add 1.350 beds to existing 40 hospitals and own additional ~7,000 beds by FY19. It recently forayed into homecare services and plans to cater to Tier-1 & Tier-2 cities by the end of FY17.

Risk

The new hospitals can take longer time to contribute. The recent acquisition of Hetero pharmacy could affect the margins as its pharmacy business is a low margin business.

FY

Financials

CMP

Sales

OPM(%)

EPS

PE

BVPS

PBV

EV/Sales

ROE(%)

2016 03

1365.60 6085.59

12.85

23.79

57.40

248

5.5

3.4

9.58

2015 03

1365.60 5178.45

13.90

24.43

55.89

227.9

5.99

3.8

10.72


Cholamandalam Inv & Fin About

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited was incorporated in 1978 as a financial services company. The Company has now emerged as a comprehensive financial services solution provider that offers vehicle finance, business finance, home equity loans, stock broking and distribution of financial products to its customers. The Company operates from over 500 branches across India with assets under management over Rs. 30,000 crores.

Investment Argument

An improvement in Commercial Vehicle industry is slowly being witnessed which is likely to lead to higher growth for the company. The home equity (loan against property) market in India has witnessed a strong growth over the last 5 years and is expected to grow at a steady pace. The 2016 budget is focused is focusing on rural and semi-urban areas where it has more than 90% of the branches. It reported stellar Q4 results with 20% growth in revenue and 42% growth in net profits YoY basis on the back of good book growth and better fee income.

Risk

Financials

Diversification of loan book towards new business segments is needed to reduce the cyclicality in loan book pertaining to concentration in Commercial Vehicles which contribute up to 60% of loan disbursements. In case they fail to diversify, they would face considerable risk of a cyclical business downturn. Also, below normal monsoon may lead to flat growth in tractor segment. FY

CMP

Sales

OPM(%)

EPS

PE

BVPS

PBV

EV/Sales

ROE(%)

2016 03

998.80

4198.51

31.5

37.87

27.14

235.01

4.25

7.14

15.66

2015 03

998.90

3688.50

27.66

30.59

32.65

203.3

4.9

8.22

13.99



Petronet LNG

About

Petronet LNG Limited, one of the fastest growing companies in the Indian energy sector. It has set up the country's first LNG receiving and regasification terminal at Dahej, Gujarat and another terminal at Kochi, Kerala. While the Dahej terminal has a nominal capacity of 10 MMTPA, the Kochi terminal has a capacity of 5 MMTPA. The company is in the process of building a third terminal at Gangavaram, Andhra Pradesh. Formed as a Joint Venture by the Government of India to import LNG and set up LNG terminals in the country, its promoters include India's leading oil and natural gas industry players such as GAIL, ONGC, IOCL and BPCL.

Investment Argument

The price of LNG being linked to the price of oil is favorable for the importing companies as low prices lead to lower import bill which is usually denominated in foreign currency. Dahej terminal’s new capacity of 5 mntpa will be commissioned in Nov ‘16. The capacity utilization rate at Dahej plant was 116.5% in Q4 FY 16 v/s 108.4% in Q3 FY 16. The company is planning to further expand the capacity of Dahej plant by 2.5 mntpa. Kochi terminal capacity utilization is expected to reach 20% next year from a current level of 5.5%.

Risk

Kochi terminal is operating at a capacity utilization of just 5% due to delay in commissioning of Phase II of Kochi-Mangalore-Bangalore pipeline. Any change in tariffs with regards to power policy changes would impact their blended margin estimate thus exposing them to risks. Also, the delay in implementing the newly reworked contract would impact demand and hence their blended margins..

Financials

FY

CMP

Sales

OPM(%)

EPS

PE

BVPS

PBV

EV/Sales

ROE(%)

2016 03

272.50

26247.53

6.26

12.39

22.35

85.02

3.21

0.78

14.45

2015 03

272.50

39092.83

3.88

12.06

22.59

76.29

3.57

0.58

15.81


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